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Steven Buhr

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  1. I believe that, under the TD concussion protocol, we aren't allowed to post anything for 1 week whenever we break our brains.
  2. I do think Ryan is benefitting from having so few manager openings this season. As Seth said, he doesn't have to rush or risk losing his preferred candidates. He lost Hale, but that was before he even got him in for an interview. Seems like Arizona had their sights set on him early. You'd like to get things settled so you can start finalizing other coaching decisions, both the Twins' staff and their minor league assignments. But for all I know, one of the thing Ryan is talking to these candidates about is their thoughts on a staff, so it could be that he's working on that issue parallel with the manager search. I also suspect they put together Plans A, B and C for minor league assignments during organizational meetings last week, based on whether they hire Molitor, Mientkiewicz or an outsider. By the way, isn't 3 MLB manager openings pretty low for an offseason? I don't think baseball has the constant turnover the NFL and NBA do, but it still seems like that's really low.
  3. I think there is a lot of doubt about Molitor's ambition, to the point where some have questioned just whether he wants this manager job very bad. I said there's some "serious doubt" as to whether he'd stay in the organization, but I'm not as quick to totally rule it out as some are (at least for this year). It's not like there are other manager vacancies he can go apply for if he doesn't get the Twins job. I could see him taking another position in the organization for at least a year if he simply wants to stay involved with baseball. I suspect he does. I have doubts that he would accept a coaching role or minor league manager role that would require he spend 6-7 months away from his family if he doesn't get the Twins manager job, however. As for his "brilliance," I'll just say that you don't have to look far to find comments about his "high baseball IQ," as Terry Ryan has stated. Trevor Plouffe also called Molitor, "one of the most knowledgeable baseball men I've ever met." I've talked to minor leaguers who spoke really highly of him, as well. Personally, I was as impressed with his baseball knowledge when I had opportunities to talk to him during a week he spent in CR in 2013 as anyone I've talked baseball with. Maybe "brilliant baseball mind" was hyperbole on my part, but I'll own that. When it comes to baseball, I think he's a really smart guy.
  4. I'll call your Rand and raise you a Sinker. http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/280172552.html As for the extended search, yes LaVelle recently added that bit of information. However, if the point is to be "fair," then I think it's a bit unfair to throw that bit of information up when, prior to Neal's post, multiple reliable media sources were reporting that the search appears to have narrowed to three men. Look, you're entitled to your opinion. A lot of people have the same clear disdain for anything and anyone who works for the Twins that you do. But, to be "fair," I think we can safely assume that most people in that camp would have been highly critical of Ryan for not taking time to conduct a thorough search if he had quickly named a new manager. Just feels like some folks are kind of pissed off that Ryan didn't give them that opportunity, so now they want to call his motives in to question because he didn't act in a hasty manner that would have allowed them to do so.
  5. We would be remiss not to point out that LaVelle E Neal is reporting that the Twins may not have really trimmed the list of candidates to 3 after all. I'll simply say that I wrote this article and its headline and posted it at Knuckleballsblog.com yesterday before that news. http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/280134972.html
  6. I'd have been upset if the Twins had been among the first to announce a hiring. Historically, I don't think it has been at all unusual for teams with manager vacancies to go in to the WS without an announcement. I like that the GM is being thorough, even if that means the media and fan base get antsy about it.
  7. I can understand getting that impression. Whenever we mention the 40 man roster implications, it implies service time as a factor. I do think, though, that it is a non-issue for elite level players who have avoided missing significant time with injuries. In particular, I can't see it being a factor with Burdi and Reed, assuming they continue to perform as they have. It's hard to watch the Royals and not get pretty excited for the possibility of seeing a similar lock-down bullpen in Minnesota not too far down the road.
  8. I think that's a fair point and as someone who has had the opportunity to interview Molitor, I can say he certainly is not ill-at-ease in that area. I do think there is something to be said for having experience managing before you manage a MLB team, even though I would not lose sleep over Molitor not having that experience, should Ryan decide he's the guy.
  9. I think a lot of us thought he would be a candidate. I don't think I recall his name being included as being interviewed for the other openings, either. Makes me wonder if there's some kind of scuttlebut about him getting the Rays manager job in the not-too-distant future or some other reason he's not even doing any interviewing. (Or maybe he is and I just have missed it.)
  10. I kinda hope the Twins GM can find better places to go for ideas than online comment sections. I suspect what Ryan is doing is a combination. He wants to avoid a Billy Martin/Dusty Baker "throw him til his arm falls off" philosophy, certainly, but he's also clearly looking to each candidate with an expectation that he has developed his own philosophy, as well. This seems pretty important to me, given that none of these candidates have had the kind of autonomy over pitcher usage that a Major League manager would have.
  11. It was three-and-a-half weeks ago that General Manager Terry Ryan announced that manager Ron Gardenhire would not be returning to his job in 2015, and we still don’t know who will be guiding the Twins on the field next season. But we’re getting closer.After considering, by my count, at least seven or eight candidates during the first two weeks of the offseason, Ryan set aside the managerial search while he holed up in Fort Myers with his staff for their annual week of postseason organizational meetings, though reports are that he did find time for a second interview with Doug Mientkiewicz while in Florida. Coming out of those meetings, media reports indicate that several candidates have been informed they are no longer being considered and, while the Twins are characteristically tight-lipped on the subject, it appears that the list of potential skippers has been whittled down to three: Paul Molitor, Doug Mientkiewicz and Torey Lovullo. Looking at them, it would appear that there isn’t a lot of difference. All three are white, middle-aged men. Mientkiewicz is the youngest, at 40. Molitor the oldest at 58. Lovullo splits the difference at 49. There's not a lot of “diversity” readily apparent by looking at them, so if Ryan is going to make good on his pledge to add more of a Latin presence on the staff, it will need to come from among the coaches that he and the eventual manager hire. But when you dig deeper, you see that there are plenty of differences among these three gentlemen and if you’re the Twins, you have an opportunity to make a statement with this hire concerning what traits are most important to you, as an organization. The question is, what kind of statement are you looking to make? http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/Molitor.jpg Paul Molitor (Photo: SD Buhr) If you’re looking to say, “We have a youth movement brewing and we are going to do what we did when we hired Tom Kelly – hire a manager who has already spent time watching, evaluating and coaching the young players who will form the core of the next generation of Twins players,” then your first choice is Mientkiewicz. He has had two successful seasons in Fort Myers while managing Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios and the rest of a very talented “class” of minor leaguers currently rising through the ranks. Paul Molitor gets a few points in this category, too, however. He spent time as a roving minor league instructor prior to his one season on the Twins major league bench, so he also has a lot of familiarity with these rising stars. If the statement the Twins want to make is, "We want the most qualified man for the job of managing a Major League baseball team," the decision becomes a bit murkier. Molitor does not have a single day of experience as a manager at any level of professional baseball. If managing only involved the work required between the time you fill out a line-up card and the final pitch of the game, I don’t think experience would be an issue for Molitor. It’s hard to imagine any circumstance arising that he has not prepared for during his Hall of Fame playing career and his time on coaching staffs at various levels. Anyone who has had even a short conversation with him about baseball will likely tell you that his baseball IQ level is off the charts. Also (and this is important), he apparently understands that he can always learn more and is open to doing so. But game management is not all a manager has to do. There’s media relations and public relations and front office communication and clubhouse relations… and… and… It’s a big job and while I don’t think it’s impossible for someone who has never managed at any level before to be successful, I do think that having some amount of experience in a managerial position is helpful. Without it, Molitor would very much be “learning on the job” when it comes to off-the-field aspects of the position for a year or two. For whatever reasons, family or otherwise, Molitor has chosen not to take opportunities to get that experience by managing at the minor league levels. Should that disqualify him from consideration? Absolutely not. Should he get a free pass on this factor if other qualified candidates have emerged who HAVE that experience? No. He made the decision not to take that route and if that turns out to be a determining factor in him not getting the job this time, so be it. If the Twins had narrowed their choices down to Mientkiewicz and Molitor, I would not consider the former’s two years in the Fort Myers dugout to be much, if any, of an advantage. Other managers in the Twins organization, such as Gene Glynn (AAA), Jeff Smith (AA), Jake Mauer (low A) and Ray Smith (rookie) all have far more minor league managerial experience than Mientkiewicz. Yes, Mientkiewicz has had successful teams both years in Fort Myers, but take a look at his rosters those two years. If you can’t win a few games with those guys, you really are in the wrong line of work. Personality-wise, you have very different men. Molitor seems to bring a cerebral intensity to the game, while Mientkiewicz is all about the fire and he doesn’t even pretend to contain it. Both would bring a familiarity with the Twins organization to the job, without the baggage of being one of “Gardy’s boys.” There are various reports and rumors out there concerning how well (or not well) these guys got along with the Twins’ former manager, but it’s probably safe to say neither would be prone to adopting any approach to managing simply because that was the way Ron Gardenhire would have done it. So, depending on what he decides is the most important quality in a manager, Terry Ryan has an acceptable internal choice in either Molitor or Mientkiewicz. Want someone who will get in the face of players and umpires? Doug’s your guy. Want a brilliant baseball mind? I doubt you could do better than Molitor. Want someone open to utilizing more advanced analytics? Molitor appears so inclined, though there are indications Mientkiewicz is more of a “gut feel” kind of guy (though, to be fair, the amount of detailed analytics available to minor league managers is limited and their job is more to develop talent than to win games). Want someone who has the credentials as a player to garner respect among the troops? Molitor’s a Hall of Famer and Mientkiewicz has a World Series ring and sufficient MLB experience to give him plenty of credibility. If you want someone familiar with the players who are moving up through the organization and are preparing to arrive at Target Field over the next two or three years, both men have that familiarity, though in somewhat different amounts. The only thing neither man has would be the “fresh set of eyes” that some would consider helpful, if not critical, to this organization. Which brings us to the third finalist for the Twins managerial job, Torey Lovullo. Lovullo has nine years of experience managing in the minor leagues, including time at both the AA and AAA levels, which neither internal candidate can say. There is little doubt that, of the three, he would be the most prepared to handle all aspects of the job on the first day he’s in the position. Lovullo has experience as a “second-in-command” bench coach at the big league level. Molitor was part of Tom Kelly’s bench staff for a time and was a hitting coach for the Mariners for one year. All of that experience is at least a decade old, however. He was on Gardenhire’s bench this past season. Mientkiewicz has not held a field manager/coach job above Class A. From all accounts, Lovullo has a baseball mind and eye for detail that may not be quite on par with Molitor’s, but isn’t all that far behind it. He not only is “open” to new ideas, he has a history of actively seeking them out. Based strictly on a managerial/coaching résumé, there doesn’t appear to be much doubt that Lovullo is more qualified, right now, to be a big league manager. But we all know this choice doesn’t just come down to that factor. We knew it when Terry Ryan told the media that he would be looking at both internal and external candidates, that what was important was finding the “right” person, but that, “ideally,” that choice would come from inside the organization. We’ve known it all along. Here is what Lovullo does not have: Experience as a Major League managerSignificant successful Major League playing experience (Lovullo was, in today’s parlance, a “replacement level player,” who saw big league time as a utility infielder in eight seasons, but played in over 100 games just once, putting up a .224 career batting average)Direct experience within the Twins organizationThe first two points are really not factors at all. None of this group of finalists has big league manager experience and I think history has pretty much borne out that experience as a player in the majors is not predictive of success as a manager. He successfully climbed the ladder and reached “the Show.” That should be all the credibility he needs with a group of young players who have been doing the exact same thing. But then there is the final bullet point. And really, that’s what we knew it would come down to all along, isn’t it? An objective look at the qualifications of these three guys (albeit an outsider’s look, given that we aren’t privy to information in background checks or reference checks, etc.) would seem to tell us Torey Lovullo is the most qualified of the group to manage in the Major Leagues. But will Terry Ryan and the rest of the Twins leadership really be comfortable turning over the manager’s office to an outsider – someone whom they have absolutely zero experience dealing with outside of a job interview that reportedly went extremely well? If Mientkiewicz doesn’t get the job, he’ll almost certainly remain in the organization, either back in Fort Myers or in Chattanooga, most likely. But if Molitor doesn’t get the gig, there is probably some serious doubt as to whether he would remain in the Twins organization at all. Make no mistake, he has been a valuable resource in the roles he’s played with the Twins, whether as a roving minor league instructor or a coach with the Twins. Passing over him may cost the organization that resource altogether. Given the competition he’s up against, I don’t see Mientkiewicz getting this job. I think it’s down to Molitor and Lovullo. When it comes right down to making that decision, I don’t think Ryan and Jim Pohlad will give the position to even a highly qualified outsider. I think we’ll be seeing Paul Molitor named the manager within the next week or so. If that’s the case, I’m fine with it. I like Molitor and I think he could be successful in the role, given the right coaching staff and resources (both in terms of players and technology) to compete. Choosing Lovullo, on the other hand, would not only surprise me, but would give me a little extra optimism that things at One Twins Way are actually changing and while I already have considerable respect for Terry Ryan, making this sort of choice would significantly raise that level of respect. It would be an uncharacteristic choice. It would be a bold choice. It also, I am coming around to believing, would be the right choice. This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com Click here to view the article
  12. After considering, by my count, at least seven or eight candidates during the first two weeks of the offseason, Ryan set aside the managerial search while he holed up in Fort Myers with his staff for their annual week of postseason organizational meetings, though reports are that he did find time for a second interview with Doug Mientkiewicz while in Florida. Coming out of those meetings, media reports indicate that several candidates have been informed they are no longer being considered and, while the Twins are characteristically tight-lipped on the subject, it appears that the list of potential skippers has been whittled down to three: Paul Molitor, Doug Mientkiewicz and Torey Lovullo. Looking at them, it would appear that there isn’t a lot of difference. All three are white, middle-aged men. Mientkiewicz is the youngest, at 40. Molitor the oldest at 58. Lovullo splits the difference at 49. There's not a lot of “diversity” readily apparent by looking at them, so if Ryan is going to make good on his pledge to add more of a Latin presence on the staff, it will need to come from among the coaches that he and the eventual manager hire. But when you dig deeper, you see that there are plenty of differences among these three gentlemen and if you’re the Twins, you have an opportunity to make a statement with this hire concerning what traits are most important to you, as an organization. The question is, what kind of statement are you looking to make? http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/Molitor.jpg Paul Molitor (Photo: SD Buhr) If you’re looking to say, “We have a youth movement brewing and we are going to do what we did when we hired Tom Kelly – hire a manager who has already spent time watching, evaluating and coaching the young players who will form the core of the next generation of Twins players,” then your first choice is Mientkiewicz. He has had two successful seasons in Fort Myers while managing Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios and the rest of a very talented “class” of minor leaguers currently rising through the ranks. Paul Molitor gets a few points in this category, too, however. He spent time as a roving minor league instructor prior to his one season on the Twins major league bench, so he also has a lot of familiarity with these rising stars. If the statement the Twins want to make is, "We want the most qualified man for the job of managing a Major League baseball team," the decision becomes a bit murkier. Molitor does not have a single day of experience as a manager at any level of professional baseball. If managing only involved the work required between the time you fill out a line-up card and the final pitch of the game, I don’t think experience would be an issue for Molitor. It’s hard to imagine any circumstance arising that he has not prepared for during his Hall of Fame playing career and his time on coaching staffs at various levels. Anyone who has had even a short conversation with him about baseball will likely tell you that his baseball IQ level is off the charts. Also (and this is important), he apparently understands that he can always learn more and is open to doing so. But game management is not all a manager has to do. There’s media relations and public relations and front office communication and clubhouse relations… and… and… It’s a big job and while I don’t think it’s impossible for someone who has never managed at any level before to be successful, I do think that having some amount of experience in a managerial position is helpful. Without it, Molitor would very much be “learning on the job” when it comes to off-the-field aspects of the position for a year or two. For whatever reasons, family or otherwise, Molitor has chosen not to take opportunities to get that experience by managing at the minor league levels. Should that disqualify him from consideration? Absolutely not. Should he get a free pass on this factor if other qualified candidates have emerged who HAVE that experience? No. He made the decision not to take that route and if that turns out to be a determining factor in him not getting the job this time, so be it. If the Twins had narrowed their choices down to Mientkiewicz and Molitor, I would not consider the former’s two years in the Fort Myers dugout to be much, if any, of an advantage. Other managers in the Twins organization, such as Gene Glynn (AAA), Jeff Smith (AA), Jake Mauer (low A) and Ray Smith (rookie) all have far more minor league managerial experience than Mientkiewicz. Yes, Mientkiewicz has had successful teams both years in Fort Myers, but take a look at his rosters those two years. If you can’t win a few games with those guys, you really are in the wrong line of work. Personality-wise, you have very different men. Molitor seems to bring a cerebral intensity to the game, while Mientkiewicz is all about the fire and he doesn’t even pretend to contain it. Both would bring a familiarity with the Twins organization to the job, without the baggage of being one of “Gardy’s boys.” There are various reports and rumors out there concerning how well (or not well) these guys got along with the Twins’ former manager, but it’s probably safe to say neither would be prone to adopting any approach to managing simply because that was the way Ron Gardenhire would have done it. So, depending on what he decides is the most important quality in a manager, Terry Ryan has an acceptable internal choice in either Molitor or Mientkiewicz. Want someone who will get in the face of players and umpires? Doug’s your guy. Want a brilliant baseball mind? I doubt you could do better than Molitor. Want someone open to utilizing more advanced analytics? Molitor appears so inclined, though there are indications Mientkiewicz is more of a “gut feel” kind of guy (though, to be fair, the amount of detailed analytics available to minor league managers is limited and their job is more to develop talent than to win games). Want someone who has the credentials as a player to garner respect among the troops? Molitor’s a Hall of Famer and Mientkiewicz has a World Series ring and sufficient MLB experience to give him plenty of credibility. If you want someone familiar with the players who are moving up through the organization and are preparing to arrive at Target Field over the next two or three years, both men have that familiarity, though in somewhat different amounts. The only thing neither man has would be the “fresh set of eyes” that some would consider helpful, if not critical, to this organization. Which brings us to the third finalist for the Twins managerial job, Torey Lovullo. Lovullo has nine years of experience managing in the minor leagues, including time at both the AA and AAA levels, which neither internal candidate can say. There is little doubt that, of the three, he would be the most prepared to handle all aspects of the job on the first day he’s in the position. Lovullo has experience as a “second-in-command” bench coach at the big league level. Molitor was part of Tom Kelly’s bench staff for a time and was a hitting coach for the Mariners for one year. All of that experience is at least a decade old, however. He was on Gardenhire’s bench this past season. Mientkiewicz has not held a field manager/coach job above Class A. From all accounts, Lovullo has a baseball mind and eye for detail that may not be quite on par with Molitor’s, but isn’t all that far behind it. He not only is “open” to new ideas, he has a history of actively seeking them out. Based strictly on a managerial/coaching résumé, there doesn’t appear to be much doubt that Lovullo is more qualified, right now, to be a big league manager. But we all know this choice doesn’t just come down to that factor. We knew it when Terry Ryan told the media that he would be looking at both internal and external candidates, that what was important was finding the “right” person, but that, “ideally,” that choice would come from inside the organization. We’ve known it all along. Here is what Lovullo does not have: Experience as a Major League manager Significant successful Major League playing experience (Lovullo was, in today’s parlance, a “replacement level player,” who saw big league time as a utility infielder in eight seasons, but played in over 100 games just once, putting up a .224 career batting average) Direct experience within the Twins organization The first two points are really not factors at all. None of this group of finalists has big league manager experience and I think history has pretty much borne out that experience as a player in the majors is not predictive of success as a manager. He successfully climbed the ladder and reached “the Show.” That should be all the credibility he needs with a group of young players who have been doing the exact same thing. But then there is the final bullet point. And really, that’s what we knew it would come down to all along, isn’t it? An objective look at the qualifications of these three guys (albeit an outsider’s look, given that we aren’t privy to information in background checks or reference checks, etc.) would seem to tell us Torey Lovullo is the most qualified of the group to manage in the Major Leagues. But will Terry Ryan and the rest of the Twins leadership really be comfortable turning over the manager’s office to an outsider – someone whom they have absolutely zero experience dealing with outside of a job interview that reportedly went extremely well? If Mientkiewicz doesn’t get the job, he’ll almost certainly remain in the organization, either back in Fort Myers or in Chattanooga, most likely. But if Molitor doesn’t get the gig, there is probably some serious doubt as to whether he would remain in the Twins organization at all. Make no mistake, he has been a valuable resource in the roles he’s played with the Twins, whether as a roving minor league instructor or a coach with the Twins. Passing over him may cost the organization that resource altogether. Given the competition he’s up against, I don’t see Mientkiewicz getting this job. I think it’s down to Molitor and Lovullo. When it comes right down to making that decision, I don’t think Ryan and Jim Pohlad will give the position to even a highly qualified outsider. I think we’ll be seeing Paul Molitor named the manager within the next week or so. If that’s the case, I’m fine with it. I like Molitor and I think he could be successful in the role, given the right coaching staff and resources (both in terms of players and technology) to compete. Choosing Lovullo, on the other hand, would not only surprise me, but would give me a little extra optimism that things at One Twins Way are actually changing and while I already have considerable respect for Terry Ryan, making this sort of choice would significantly raise that level of respect. It would be an uncharacteristic choice. It would be a bold choice. It also, I am coming around to believing, would be the right choice. This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com
  13. Wondering how closely Gibson is following the Twins manager search process. Does he find himself following every bit of news and every new rumor on the subject or does he try to simply put it out of mind until there's a formal announcement concerning the hire?
  14. Immediately after the Minnesota Twins’ 2014 season ended, General Manager Terry Ryan announced that longtime manager Ron Gardenhire would not be returning to his job in 2015. That was three and a half weeks ago and we still don’t know who will be guiding the Twins on the field next season. But we’re getting closer. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Lovullo-600x420.jpg Torey Lovullo (AP Photo) (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com) After considering, by my count, at least seven or eight candidates during the first two weeks of the offseason, Ryan set aside the managerial search while he holed up in Fort Myers with his staff for their annual week of postseason organizational meetings (though reports are that he did find time for a second interview with Doug Mientkiewicz while in Fort Myers). Coming out of those meetings, media reports indicate that several candidates have been informed they are no longer being considered and, while the Twins are characteristically tight-lipped on the subject, it appears that the list of potential skippers has been whittled down to three: Paul Molitor, Doug Mientkiewicz and Torey Lovullo. Looking at them, it would appear that there isn’t a lot of difference. All three are white, middle-aged men. Mientkiewicz is the youngest, at 40; Molitor the oldest at 58. Lovullo splits the difference at 49. There's not a lot of “diversity” readily apparent by looking at them, so if Ryan is going to make good on his pledge to add more of a Latin presence on the staff, it will need to come from among the coaches that he and the eventual manager hire. But when you dig deeper, you see that there are plenty of differences between these three gentlemen and if you’re the Twins, you have an opportunity to make a statement with this hire concerning what traits are most important to you, as an organization. The question is, what kind of statement are you looking to make? http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/Molitor.jpg Paul Molitor (Photo: SD Buhr) If you’re looking to say, “We have a youth movement brewing and we are going to do what we did when we hired Tom Kelly – hire a manager that has already spent time watching, evaluating and coaching the young players who will form the core of the next generation of Twins players,” then your first choice is Mientkiewicz. He has had two successful seasons in Fort Myers while managing Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios and the rest of a very talented “class” of minor leaguers currently rising up through the ranks. Paul Molitor gets a few points in this category, too, however. He spent time as a roving minor league instructor prior to his one season on the Twins’ major league bench, so he also has a lot of familiarity with these rising stars. If the statement the Twins want to make is, "We want the most qualified man for the job of managing a Major League baseball team," the decision becomes a bit murkier. Molitor does not have a single day of experience as a manager at any level of professional baseball. If managing only involved the work required between the time you fill out a line-up card and the final pitch of the game, I don’t think experience would be an issue for Molitor. It’s hard to imagine any circumstance arising that he has not prepared for during his Hall of Fame playing career and his time on coaching staffs at various levels. Anyone who has had even a short conversation with him about baseball will likely tell you that his baseball IQ level is off the charts. Also (and this is important), he apparently understands that he can always learn more and is open to doing so. But game management is not all a manager has to do. There’s media relations and public relations and front office communication and clubhouse relations… and… and… It’s a big job and while I don’t think it’s impossible for someone who has never managed at any level before to be successful, I do think that having some amount of experience in a managerial position is helpful. Without it, Molitor would very much be “learning on the job” when it comes to off-the-field aspects of the position for a year or two. For whatever reasons, family or otherwise, Molitor has chosen not to take opportunities to get that experience by managing at the minor league levels. Should that disqualify him from consideration? Absolutely not. Should he get a free pass on this factor if other qualified candidates have emerged who HAVE that experience? No. He made the decision not to take that route and if that turns out to be a determining factor in him not getting the job this time, so be it. If the Twins had narrowed their choices down to Mientkiewicz and Molitor, I would not consider the former’s two years in the Fort Myers dugout to be much, if any, of an advantage. Other managers in the Twins organization, such as Gene Glynn (AAA), Jeff Smith (AA), Jake Mauer (low A) and Ray Smith (rookie) all have far more minor league managerial experience than Mientkiewicz. Yes, Mientkiewicz has had successful teams both years in Fort Myers, but take a look at his rosters those two years. If you can’t win a few games with those guys, you really are in the wrong line of work. Personality-wise, you have very different men. Molitor seems to bring a cerebral intensity to the game, while Mientkiewicz is all about the fire and he doesn’t even pretend to contain it. Both would bring a familiarity with the Twins organization to the job, without the baggage of being one of “Gardy’s boys.” There are various reports and rumors out there concerning how well (or not well) these guys got along with the Twins’ former manager, but it’s probably safe to say neither would be prone to adopting any approach to managing simply because that was the way Ron Gardenhire would have done it. So, depending on what he decides is the most important quality in a manager, Terry Ryan has an acceptable internal choice in either Molitor or Mientkiewicz. Want someone who will get in the face of players and umpires? Doug’s your guy. Want a brilliant baseball mind? I doubt you could do better than Molitor. Want someone open to utilizing more advanced analytics? Molitor appears so inclined, though there are indications Mientkiewicz is more of a “gut feel” kind of guy (though, to be fair, the amount of detailed analytics available to minor league managers is limited and their job is more to develop talent than to win games). Want someone who has the credentials as a player to garner respect among the troups? Molitor’s a Hall of Famer and Mientkiewicz has a World Series ring and sufficient MLB experience to give him plenty of credibility. If you want someone familiar with the players who are moving up through the organization and are preparing to arrive at Target Field over the next two or three years, both men have that familiarity, though in somewhat different amounts. The only thing neither man has would be the, “fresh set of eyes,” that some would consider helpful, if not critical, to this organization. Which brings us to the third finalist for the Twins managerial job, Torey Lovullo. Lovullo has nine years of experience managing in the minor leagues, including time at both the AA and AAA levels, which neither internal candidate can say. There is little doubt that, of the three, he would be the most prepared to handle all aspects of the job on the first day he’s in the position. Lovullo has experience as a “second-in-command” bench coach at the big league level. Molitor was part of Tom Kelly’s bench staff for a time and was a hitting coach for the Mariners for one year. All of that experience is at least a decade old, however. He was on Gardenhire’s bench this past season. Mientkiewicz has not held a field manager/coach job above Class A. From all accounts, Lovullo has a baseball mind and eye for detail that may not be quite on par with Molitor’s, but isn’t all that far behind it. He not only is “open” to new ideas, he has a history of actively seeking them out. Based strictly on a managerial/coaching résumé, there doesn’t appear to be much doubt that Lovullo is more qualified, right now, to be a big league manager. But we all know this choice doesn’t just come down to that factor. We knew it when Terry Ryan told the media that he would be looking at both internal and external candidates, that what was important was finding the “right” person, but that, “ideally,” that choice would come from inside the organization. We’ve known it all along. Here is what Lovullo does not have: Experience as a Major League manager Significant successful Major League playing experience (Lovullo was, in today’s parlance, a “replacement level player,” who saw big league time as a utility infielder in eight seasons, but played in over 100 games just once, putting up a .224 career batting average) Direct experience within the Twins organization The first two points are really not factors at all. None of this group of finalists has big league manager experience and I think history has pretty much borne out that experience as a player in the majors is not predictive of success as a manager. He successfully climbed the ladder and reached “the Show.” That should be all the credibility he needs with a group of young players who have been doing the exact same thing. But then there is the final bullet point. And really, that’s what we knew it would come down to all along, isn’t it? An objective look at the qualifications of these three guys (albeit an outsider’s look, given that we aren’t privy to information in background checks or reference checks, etc.) would seem to tell us Torey Lovullo is the most qualified of the group to manage in the Major Leagues. But will Terry Ryan and the rest of the Twins’ leadership really be comfortable turning over the manager’s office to an outsider – someone who they have absolutely zero experience dealing with outside of a job interview that reportedly went extremely well? If Mientkiewicz doesn’t get the job, he’ll almost certainly remain in the organization, either back in Fort Myers or in Chattanooga, most likely. But if Molitor doesn’t get the gig, there is probably some serious doubt as to whether he would remain in the Twins organization at all. Make no mistake, he has been a valuable resource in the roles he’s played with the Twins, whether as a roving minor league instructor or a coach with the Twins. Passing him over may cost the organization that resource, altogether. Given the competition he’s up against, I don’t see Mientkiewicz getting this job. I think it’s down to Molitor and Lovullo. When it comes right down to making that decision, I don’t think Ryan and Jim Pohlad will give the position to even a highly qualified outsider. I think we’ll be seeing Paul Molitor named the manager within the next week or so. If that’s the case, I’m fine with it. I like Molitor and I think he could be successful in the role, given the right coaching staff and resources (both in terms of players and technology) to compete. Choosing Lovullo, on the other hand, would not only surprise me, but give me a little extra optimism that things at One Twins Way are actually changing and while I already have considerable respect for Terry Ryan, making this sort of choice will significantly raise that level of respect. It would be an uncharacteristic choice. It would be a bold choice. It also, I am coming around to believing, would be the right choice.
  15. I do think that almost every discussion of the Royals' success this season ignores, or at least skirts, this factor. It is incredible the way they've avoided significant injury and when you consider how close they came to not even qualifying for a wild card spot, it's obvious that even just having "good" luck, rather than "incredibly good" luck, would have left them at home watching the postseason and everyone would be having a far different discussion. I can certainly look back to a few seasons where it would have been nice to have similar health in the Twins clubhouse.
  16. I'm sorry, but the very idea that fans of a team that has lost more than 90 games per season for four straight seasons would advocate a, "just roll with what we have," strategy is mind-boggling to me. You don't worry about "blocking" prospects with the possible exception of the most elite of elite prospects. That would be Sano and Buxton. Every other prospect (and that includes Meyer) has to prove they are better options than any other options.
  17. Health is an important factor for any of these guys' chances of appearing at Target Field this year, but especially so with Buxton. IF he stays healthy, I think he's nearly a 100% chance of getting a taste of the big leagues in 2015. But that's a big "if."
  18. Rosario singled in the 5th today but got caught stealing 3B. Guess I need to drop the bum in the rankings!!
  19. Since I would rather think about this, obviously, than my work, I think that I would probably rank those 6 guys as follows: 1 Buxton - because he's Buxton. 2. Rosario - hesitate to put too much emphasis on AFL numbers after a couple weeks, but he was so good before the suspension that you want to hope this fall indicates 2014 was just a crappy year for him after the suspension. 3 Walker - because you don't teach that kind of power. Any guy who can hit the ball that hard and run as well as he does has a good chance to be a difference maker. It is possible to cut down on Ks. Know how I know it's possible?... see... 4. Harrison - because he had one significant offensive weakness after 2013, strikeouts, and he cut down from 125 to 86 (in exactly the same number of plate appearances, btw). Yeah, he focused on contact and strike zone awareness this year, perhaps at the expense of power. But I've seen the power and I believe it will be back. 5. Kanzler - because he's shown more offensively and defensively than Kepler has, so far, despite Kepler looking like he should be the more athletic guy. He plays defense with some reckless abandon, however, so when you consider his chances of making it, you have to be concerned whether that will get him hurt before he makes the Bigs. 6 - Kepler - still in this group of prospects because he does have the athleticism the others do and he's younger than the others (though Harrison just turned 22, so their 4 month age difference is meaningless).
  20. I haven't given it a ton of thought, yet, since I don't do my own prospect list until closer to the end of the year, but your list would be similar to mine. I would put Jason Kanzler in that group with Walker, Harrison and Kepler, probably. Among those four, I doubt Kepler would be at the top of my list right this moment. Maybe further study would convince me.
  21. If he had named a new manager quickly after dismissing Gardenhire, this place would have been filled with, "he didn't even take the time to conduct a thorough search," comments. Now, given a lengthy, broad search, the criticism is that he's dragging out the process and wasn't prepared before letting the last guy go. Honestly, sometimes I really don't care that the Twins act as though they don't give a damn what the fans think, since everything they do is going to be criticized anyway. Not saying I feel sorry for the Twins, though. They dug this hole by allowing the losing to continue for 4 years and that will breed excessive criticism of everything they do and don't do. I have no idea who they'll hire, at this point. I'm far more certain, however, that the loudest reaction will be that it was the wrong choice, regardless of who gets the gig.
  22. We may be talking apples and oranges or we may not be that far off in agreement, but I do consider a prospect's likelihood of becoming a regular contributor to the Twins at the MLB level when I evaluate "Twins prospects." It is certainly not a primary consideration, but it's there. Right this moment, Kepler is not among my top 3 Twins OF prospects. I'm not 100% sure he's in the top 5-6, but probably somewhere right in that area. He's already on the 40-man roster, but if the Twins end up needing roster space, how secure is his spot? When I start looking at a potential logjam of prospects, especially outfielders, I start to make a mental list of guys that could possibly end up being lost in MLB/MiLB Rule 5 drafts or as they become minor league free agents, run out of options, etc., and Kepler would seem to be at-risk in certain areas because of how long it has taken him to get to the point he's at. I agree he still has a ton of potential, because you can't teach the raw athleticsm he has. But IF it's going to take, say, another 4-5 years for him to reach that potential, I think there's a significant chance that it will be while wearing another uniform, because there are so many ways in which the Twins can end up losing him. To my way of thinking, that does affect his standing as a "Twins Prospect." (This would be, as opposed to, "Top MLB prospects currently under contract to the Twins organization," where he might rank a bit higher.)
  23. I'm definitely in the, "ugh... 4th verse, same as the 1st, 2nd and 3rd," category. Thinking I should just put all my articles in an indexed database so I can simply pull out, for example, a prior "Rant on Payroll" item and re-post it.
  24. The cynic in me wonders if the "scaling back" reflects the harsh reality that, even among those as devoted to writing about the Twins as the TwinsDaily people are, the interest level in puting forth as much time and effort as it has taken to create this product in the past simply isn't there at this point. I'm not saying this to be critical, especially since my own interest level in writing about this organization has continued to wane every offseason.
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