nclahammer

The other day I was listening to one of my go-to baseball podcasts, Effectively Wild. The hosts interviewed John Bitzer, creator of BaseballTradeValues.com. BTV is designed to simulate trades scenarios and estimate relative value of the players included, and the model incorporates variables like projected performance, prospect rankings, committed salary, inflation, years of control, aging curve, and roster flexibility.
 
The timing couldn't be better with the trade deadline fast approaching. I spent literal hours on BTV today and came up with some interesting scenarios. The site is quick to note that they won't be 100% accurate and don't factor in things like a specific club's propensity to spend or its roster needs, but even so, it's a great way to double-check your own assumptions about what a player on the Twins or a potential trade partner is worth relative to other trade chips. You could make a case that Royce Lewis should be a bit lower given his early season struggles or Jordan Balazovic should be significantly higher after a strong start, but most of the Twins values feel pretty close.
 
Below are a few examples of trades BTV gave a thumbs up to as fair for both sides:
 
Diamondbacks: Robbie Ray
Twins: Brent Rooker, Nick Gordon, Fernando Romero
 
Blue Jays: Marcus Stroman, Ken Giles
Twins: Brusdar Graterol, Nick Gordon, LaMonte Wade Jr.
 
Mets: Noah Syndergaard
Twins: Royce Lewis, Lewis Thorpe
 
Mets: Jacob deGrom
Twins: Alex Kirilloff, Nick Gordon
 
Giants: Madison Bumgarner, Will Smith
Twins: Wander Javier, Lewis Thorpe
 
Comment with some trades you work out on BTV!

This is my second installment tracking all of the FA relievers. This was a personal nit to pick with the front office given the team's need and the plethora of available options. At the quarter pole though, the results were not as good as I'd have liked personally. At this point, the sample sizes are large enough that we should be able to get a feel for who was worth it, or if FA relievers really are just a crap shoot.
 
 
The cream of the Crop:
 
Kelvin Herrera - Herrera signed a 2/17 deal with Chicago and has so far been a complete bust, posting an ERA north of 7 out of the pen in 35 appearances so far this season. His K rate has been acceptable, but his BB rate has risen along with his WHIP which sits close to 1.2. His HR rate has also skyrocketed sitting at around 1.5 per 9 innings.
 
Andrew Miller - Miller has turned it around a bit since the quarter pole, but even now it's hard to say his 2/25 deal with an additional option is what the Cards hoped it would be. His numbers are currently sitting around his career average as opposed to the 2014-2017 version that we had all hoped he'd do. I cannot really call this a bust anymore, but I'm not sure he'd be a name highly talked of if he was pitching here. To put it in perspective, his ERA sits right around where the much maligned Blake Parker sits. Granted, his peripherals are much better which tells me he may continue to positively regress.
 
Adam Ottavino - I hate the Yankees. He's been a stud. His walk rate seems to be the only negative. He's striking out 12+ per 9 innings and walking 6+... That said, his WHIP is a healthy 1.3 as batters cannot make contact with him.
 
Craig Kimbrel - This was a name we all watched closely. He's only managed 3 appearances for the Cubs since signing, so it's a bit too early to track this one. He has been shelled so far... but then again, it's 3 appearances.
 
Jeurys Familia - Familia thus far hasn't rewarded the 3/30 contract he signed. His K rate is in line with his career norms, but he's walking more, giving up more hits, and giving up more home runs. His peripherals are pretty ugly right now and he sports a sparking 7.76 ERA in 31 appearances.
 
Zach Britton - Britton signed a 3/39 deal with the Yankees and has pitched reasonably well, though I'm not sure why. His K rate is pretty bad for a reliver and below his 7.34 career average. His walk rate is up as well. He's managed to lower his H/9 rate as well as keep the ball in the park. If he was pitching for MN, I think most of us would be on pins and needles, but he's gotten results thus far in his 37 innings of work.
 
Joe Kelly - Kelly signed a 3/25 deal with the LAD and has improved substantially on his results this quarter. Despite that, he hasn't been that good. His K rate remains good, but he's still allowed more walks, hits, and home runs over his career average. And I'd add that his career marks aren't very good for a RP. LA has him for another two years.
 
David Robertson - Robertson signed a 2/23 deal with Philly and has been a bust so far. He's pitched in only 7 innings and has been shelled. He's currently on the shelf with elbow soreness where he has been all season.
 
In all, there has been only one real hit here in Ottavino. Miller is making a case for being added to this list as he's improved substantially over his numbers earlier this season. Britton has gotten results as well, but he appears to be on borrowed time.
 
The Second Tier:
 
Justin Wilson - Wilson was a cheap grab for the Mets, signing a 2/10 deal. It appears that he spent most of the second half of the quarter on the DL, as he's only logged 10.2 innings of work with a 4.22 ERA. He's got time to redeem himself, but this deal hasn't gone well.
 
Joakim Soria - Soria signed a 2/15 deal with Oakland, and has improved a bit on his numbers at the quarter turn. His ERA has dropped and his peripherals all look pretty good. Oakland has worked him hard as he's got 41.2 innings under his belt already this season. I'd say at this point that the signing has been good. I'm not sure the cause of the bloated ERA, but if I was guessing it would be the occasional big game as his peripherals say he's been pretty good.
 
Cody Allen - Allen signed a 1 year deal with the Angels and so far has not lived up to his 8.5M salary. His HR and BB rates have skyrocketed though he still maintains a sexy K rate. His 5.54 ERA is something we can all live without. He's now in our minor league system. I'd say this is a good deal for the Twins getting him at the minimum if they can fix him, not so much for the Angels who will pay the rest of the 8M owed. Time will tell if we can do something, but this was no risk to us. He was a bust though for the Angels.
 
Jesse Chavez - Chavez signed a 2/8 deal with Texas, and is trying to reinvent himself as a reliever. At the quarter pole, the results weren't all that good, but they've moved into respectable territory at the half way mark. I'd say at this point, this is a good signing, especially for the price. Chavez could replace a few arms in our pen, but we'd be happy to upgrade him. His K rate is below average for a good reliever, but he does minimize walks and hits.
 
Trevor Rosenthal - Rosenthal has under performed his 1/7 deal and has been a complete disaster managing only 6 innings of very ugly baseball in the majors.
 
There are only 5 names in this tier, and it has improved a bit as the season wore on. At the quarter pole, there
wasn't a name on this tier that we'd be clamoring for. Now, Chavez and Soria both fall into a range of acceptable. That's not really high praise, but they appear to be trending in the right direction and could be reliable going forward.
 
Cheap Fliers:
 
Brad Brach - At the quarter pole, he wasn't that bad. At the half way mark, he's been horrible. The K rate is nice, but he's walking guys like crazy as well and still gives up hits. His ERA sits over 6 in 35 innings of work, and I'm sure he's part of the reason the Cubs went out and got Kimbrel.
 
Zach Duke - yes, that Zach Duke. He signed a 2M deal with the Reds and has been so bad that they've only given him an additional 5 innings since the last time I wrote this piece. He's been injured for parts of it and largely ineffective when healthy.
 
Cory Gearrin - the Mariners have, thus far, gotten a bargin with Gearrin for the 1.4M value of his contract. He has regressed a bit since the quarter pole but has notched over 30 innings of OK work. He really needs to cut down on his walk rate a bit. This isn't a bad value signing, but he doesn't have a place on a contending team. He's been worse than Parker to put that in perspective.
 
Greg Holland - Holland has regressed a bit from the quarter pole, and his numbers currently sit in line with his more recent 2015-2017 marks. He still doesn't look like the Holland of old, but for 3.25M, he's been cheap and effective. This is definitely still a win for AZ, and he'll likely be flipped for a lotto ticket by teams looking to replace busts on this list, but he's not pitching like a late pen option either.
 
Shawn Kelley - Another nice find for the bargain price of 2.75M. Kelley has only pitched 32 innings at this point and would be a decent option in our pen. He's not elite, but he's gotten results to the tune of a 3.09 ERA. His biggest draw back has been the long ball. He'd be an upgrade over several members in our pen currently.
 
Aaron Loup - The Padres got him for 1.4M and he's been perfect so far this season. The only real problem is that it's a 4 inning sample as he hit the IL in early April with elbow soreness.... and he's still there. I have to call this a bust at this point.
 
Blake Parker - At the time of signing, I simply noted that I didn't mind it if this was not the main RP piece we've added. Sadly, it was, and it wasn't even the best move. I'm not tracking Ryne Harper here as he was signed to a minor league deal, but he's out performed Parker. Parker, on the other hand, has out performed most of the people I'm tracking. This is technically a win for the front office, but literally everyone here wants him upgraded. Parker's biggest problem has been home runs, though his peripherals are all well below what they were when he was a successful MLB reliever. I think he might be adequate if kept in lower leverage situations/mop up duty, but relying on him with any kind of consistency in high leverage situations would be a mistake.
 
Oliver Perez - Perez signed a 2.5M deal with Cleveland. He has only pitched in 24 innings thus far. A quick search didn't find any injuries, but Cleveland is clearly not heavily using him. He's been acceptable for them with some pretty good peripherals backing an ERA of 3. His HR rate is a bit higher than one would like. This again is a great value signing and would be better than just a mop up guy.
 
David Phelps - The Blue Jays signed him in hopes that he recovers from TJS at some point this year and pitches. He went under the knife last spring. Not a bad risk for 2.5M. He hadn't pitched at the quarter pole but now has 9.2 innings notched. This may end up being a good signing, time will tell. He hasn't pitched well enough to warrant someone giving up much in terms of prospects for him. Perhaps that changes in the next couple of weeks given the SSS issues at play here.
 
Tony Sipp - Sipp signed for 1.25 for the Nats and has not been good. He's improved a bit on his quarter pole results, but he's pitched in only 16 innings thus far.
 
Hunter Strickland - Strickland signed a 1.3M deal and has pitched all of 2 innings, and poorly only to hit the IL with an injury. He appears to be starting rehab at this point. Not a bad gamble, but a bust.
 
Adam Warren - Warren has been a bust in 28.2 bad innings for SD. He's gotten worse as the season went on and is costing 2.5M. I doubt he fetches much value at the deadline.
 
Summarizing the fliers, there were some good finds here. No one in this group falls into a late inning option, but several would be perfectly acceptable in the next tier. I count 5 guys that are successful and that would be desired by a number of teams if they were available. None of those guys, however, would be that elite help they needed, but would be acceptable tier 2 BP options. There are 5 busts here and one guy in the too soon to tell.
 
In all, my conclusion hasn't changed much. FA relievers haven't been an option. Only Ottavino has lived up to his status at the top, though through the half way point there are a number of names that would fit nicely into the tier 2 mark. Statistically speaking, the fliers have performed the best so far... and that's not high praise. The front office might have been right in not plunking down good money for help here. The problem is that they will now shell out some decent prospects for help here.

I think Taylor Rogers may have been the greatest Twin to be snubbed from anything since Joe Mauer didn’t get the 2017 Gold Glove. After earning the longest save from any Twins pitcher since 2000 yesterday against the Rangers (he retired all seven batters he faced) and becoming the pitcher with the most saves of three or more outs for the club this century, he made it clear once again that he’s definitely one of the best relievers in the game.
 
If you look at the group of relievers that were invited to take part in the Midsummer Classic playing for the American League, it doesn’t seem so absurd that Rogers wasn’t there. Aroldis Chapman, Shane Greene, Brad Hand, Liam Hendriks and Ryan Pressly all have very similar stats, with most of them being better than Rogers’. The only one of them who has a worse ERA than the Twins star (now at 1.82) is Hand (with 2.17). Only Chapman (12.98) and Hand (13.26) are striking out more batters than him (11.57).
 
So, if you think about it, it’s not absurd that he didn’t make the team. But it wouldn’t be absurd if he did either. He’s being at least as effective as the five of them. But Rogers has one difference which could give him the upperhand in a closer comparison with those pitchers. And I don’t think this angle would ever (or even should) be used to decide who an All Star will be. But it’s nice to look at it and have fun with the realization that the Twins have one of the best arms in the game.
 
Going straight to the point: Rogers is used in more important situations than those guys and he is more responsible for his team’s wins than any reliever in the AL. Like we saw before, his overall numbers are very similar or even slightly worse than the All Star relievers. But when you look at high leverage situations, none of them are a match for Rogers.
 
 
Talking about quantity, none of them was used in those situations as much as him. He pitched a total of 14 2/3 innings of high leverage, which currently ranks third in the AL. The AL All Star reliever who comes closest is Hand, who pitched 11 2/3. But the Indians pitcher posts a 6.17, whereas Rogers has a 3.07 ERA. The only AL pitcher who has pitched as many innings (15 1/3) and has a better ERA (2.35) than him is Houston’s Roberto Osuna.
 
 
No other pitcher in the AL has been more responsible for his team’s wins than Rogers has. Currently, he leads all of them in Win Probability Added (WPA), with 2.56. The second AL pitcher in that rank is Chicago’s Álex Colomé, at 1.86, which is still better than the first of the 2019 All Star relievers, Hendriks, at 1.82. Superstar Yankee closer, Chapman doesn’t have even one third of Rogers’ WPA, standing at 0.62. So, it’s safe to say that it would have been absolutely fair if Rogers was chosen over any of the current AL All Star relievers.
 
 
But now, I have something else to put up for discussion. Taylor is only 28 and, if he continues to pitch like that, I think nobody would have any objection to making him a Twin for the remainder of his career. So I should ask your opinion. Where in Twins history do you think Rogers could end up ranking at the end of his career? Does he have a shot at one day becoming one of the best relievers in club history?
 
 
Well, to start, I did a quick research, using Fangraphs’ Splits Leaderboard tool. Currently, Taylor has a 1.82 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and is striking out 11.57 batters per nine. The season is only at its midpoint and these numbers could very well get worse. But, if the season ended today, this would be only the second time in Twins history that a reliever has up to 1.82 ERA, over 11 strikeouts per nine and a WHIP of 0.98 or lower. The only other time that happened was in 2006, when Joe Nathan posted 1.58 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and struck out 12.5 batters per nine. Let me repeat myself: that only happened one other time in club history.
 
 
Nathan is the consensual choice any time someone asks who is the best reliever in Twins history. But interestingly enough, when you compare Rogers’ current career numbers and Nathan’s when he was 28, it gets scary. By the end of the 2002 season, when Nathan was still with the Giants, he had only one career save and -0.52 WPA. Rogers earned against the Rangers this Saturday his 14th career save and holds a 6.69 career WPA, which already ranks fourth in club history. Nathan has the lead with 24.55, but he didn’t throw a single pitch in a Twins uniform before he was 29.
 
 
Another angle through which we can also speculate that Rogers can surpass Nathan in the competition for best reliever in Twins history are their Fangraphs’ Wins Above Replacement (fWAR). Rogers currently is currently worth 4.2 career fWAR, at age 28, in his fourth year as a Major League pitcher. At age 28, Nathan was worth -0.4 and after his fourth season in the Majors he was worth 0.8.
 
 
So everytime this Colorado kid comes up to the mound this year, Twins fans should be extra grateful for the opportunity. Chances are we might be witnessing one of the greatest pitchers to ever play for Minnesota. Too bad All Star game won’t have this opportunity this year.

What if the all star game was the end of the season? What kind of records would we have?
 
Home Runs – 12 have 33 or more – Harmon Killebrew in 1964 had 30 and the total with 30+ first half homeruns is – 36 and Harmon is the only Twin on the list.
 
TOP 12:
• Barry Bonds, 2001 Giants, 39
• Chris Davis, 2013 Orioles, 37
• Mark McGwire, 1998 Cardinals, 37
• Reggie Jackson, 1969 Athletics, 37
• Luis Gonzalez, 2001 D-backs, 35
• Ken Griffey Jr., 1998, Mariners, 35
• Frank Howard, 1969 Senators, 34
• Sammy Sosa, 1998 Cubs, 33
• Ken Griffey Jr., 1994 Mariners, 33
• Matt Williams, 1994 Giants, 33
• Mark McGwire, 1987 Athletics, 33
• Roger Maris, 1961 Yankees, 33
 
 
 
I know that George Brett (390) was hitting 341 on July 10, Tony Gwynn (394) was hitting 387 on July 4, and Rod Carew (388) hit 403 on July 4. Beyond that I cannot find stats for All-Star break leaders. Maybe you can add something.

Needing a starting pitcher, the Minnesota Twins front office send minor leaguer Jermaine Palacios to the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi. Palacios had some hype but was never a top prospect, while Odorizzi had been largely mediocre and was set to turn 28. It’s hard not to see more upside in a big-league starter under team control, but this leap forward has been immense for the former Tampa starter.
 
Odorizzi was often chided for his efforts by Twins fans last season. He posted a 4.49 ERA backed by a 4.20 FIP. The 8.9 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 were right in line with career norms. On a bad team he was hardly a large issue and generally pitched better than the surface level numbers suggested. In 2019 he’s gone gangbusters though, and he’s made his first All Star game to show for it.
 
Cooling off some over the last few weeks, Odorizzi still owns a 2.73 ERA and 9.9 K/9 across 85.2 IP. His FIP and xFIP suggest a bit more regression could be coming, but there’s a visible change that’s been made by the pitcher Minnesota trots out as their number two starter. Having been a low 90’s guy his whole big-league career, Odorizzi has added two mph of velocity under the tutelage of Wes Johnson and is now averaging 93.1 mph on the pitch this season. Not only is he throwing harder, but Odorizzi has shifted his repertoire to flip a career high number of sinkers, taking away from both his cutter and splitter.
 
This new version of Odorizzi is giving up a career high percentage of hard-hit balls, but he’s missing bats at record marks as well. The 12.4% whiff rate is a new high-water mark, while his contact rate is down to just 74.3% and the zone contact rate stands under 80% (78.5%) for the first time in his career. A slight jump in hard hit rate could be explainable through the increased velocity, but even still with that development, missing more barrels is the key component here.
 
Over the course of his career Odorizzi has averaged 1.2 HR/9 and has never been below the 1.0 mark. Through his first 16 starts he’s allowed just eight homers and is at 0.8 HR/9 on the season. Shedding hits and walks as well, the 1.074 WHIP stands out on its own. Having been integrated into the Twins system a year ago, and now working with a pitching thinktank that’s been overhauled, he’s reaping the rewards.
 
Next season Odorizzi will find himself on the open market for the first time in his career. The Twins have a couple of holes in their rotation that they’ll need to commit arms to. We don’t yet know how the club will navigate the trade market but extending a guy they already have in house may certainly make some sense.
 
Last season Jake Odorizzi was getting his feet wet with Minnesota and simply going through the motions he had always practiced to compete. This season he’s been given a few new tools that have taken his game to the next level and everyone involved has benefitted from it.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Okay - I just read that Lewis Thorpe is up and Adrianza is back and Wade is up and Rosario is down and Buxton is still???? This has been a fascinating year - despite being in first place all season, in spite of great production and such a strong showing there has been a tremendous amount of shifting and turn over. Some of it because of injuries, some to give a player a reset and some because we have played such long games and given the MLB roster so many innings they need a break. But who has been here? I am trying to figure that out. And I think I need help.
LaMonte Wade is finally getting his chance, something I did not see coming!
WIlllians Astudillo has been playing every position except pitcher (please do not put him there again) and providing entertainment for team and fans. And now he is on the IL.
Adrianza was on the roster and then suffered a long IL Stint.
Now Eddie Rosario is on the IL.
Byron Buxton is on the IL again - how many times has that happened in his career? And we are all anxious for him to return.
Luis Arraez has come up and shined despite not making past years prospect lists. Hard to look past his batting stats and see him return to the minors.
Jake Cave has been up more than once and is still a viable substitute.
Lewis Thorpe is up for the first time - after reading the prospect list I wonder how he got to be the new arm of the day.
Of Course Zack Littell has to go down for him and that has been a recurring experience.
Tyler Austin had two games at 1B for the Twins this year.
Chase De Jong had a chance to prove he does not belong.
Andrew Vasquez failed - has he flamed out?
Fernando Romero was a promising starter, then a promising reliever and now is a minor leaguer.
Adalberto Mejia went from fifth position in the rotation to a minor league status
Gabriel Moya went from majors to minors to DFA
Trevor Hildenberger went from one of our top relievers back to the minors.
Ryan Eades made his debut and waved good-bye
Devin Smeltzer made an amazing debut and then plunged to Earth and back to the minors.
Kohl Stewart went 1 - 1 with a 4.50 ERA and is back in the comfort of the minors.
Sean Poppen got a one day - do what you can do we aren't pulling you out game.
Austin Adams completes my record of Twin call ups and send down.

At the half way mark the one area of Twins baseball that is really bothering me is fielding. It used to be that the fundamentals of fielding were the Twins specialty, but now that we have the bats, we seem to be slipping in the field. I went to the various web sources to see if my eye test was right on a night that Adrianza makes two errors behind Berrios in a loss to the White Sox.
 
Looking at fielding stats in Baseball Almanac http://www.baseball-almanac.com/teamstats/fielding.php?y=2019&t=MIN I went the simple way to test the fielding - I clicked on errors. Here is our starting infield by errors:
Polanco - 9
Cron - 6
Schoop - 6
Sano - 5
 
Utility Men - infield errors only
Adrianza - 6
Gonzalez 3
Astudillo - 2
 
That is 37 errors in exactly one half season - by the infield (not counting catching and pitching).
 
 
https://www.espn.co.uk/mlb/team/stats/_/type/fielding/name/min/table/fielding/sort/defWARBR/dir/asc According to ESPN we have only three with negative defensive WAR - Castro, Cron, and Cave (what is it with the letter C?). It might come to a surprise for many but both Sano and Astudillo are a plus 0.1! This is despite the fact that Sano has a fielding pct (old school, I know) of 937. And as expected Kepler, Rosario, and Buxton are all +s in fielding with Buxton leading with 1.2.
 
https://www.foxsports.com/mlb/minnesota-twins-team-stats?season=2019&category=FIELDING&group=1&time=0&pos=0&splitType=0&page=1
 
I have a hard time evaluating catchers - framing, calling a game, SB no longer seems to matter...When I went to http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp#elem=%5Bobject+Object%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Player+fielding&game_type='R'&season=2019&season_type=ANY&league_code='AL'&sectionType=sp&statType=fielding&page=1&ts=1561813674629&position='2' I did not even see one of our catchers in among the 14 that they rank in fielding stats. And in ESPN fielding stats - including the non-qualified (batting title) Castro ranks 37. http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/fielding/_/position/c/qualified/false/order/true
 
In fielding pct the Twins rank #10 and according to Baseball Reference the Twins are -2 in their state Rtot - Runs above average which matches our catchers total. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2019-specialpos_c-fielding.shtml
 
I repeat - Baseball defense is the hardest to measure, but using the tools that are available we are not elite, closer to average in fielding.

The state of hockey has met the city of baseball. This spring at CHS Field, home of the St. Paul Saints, heralded the opening of a new museum devoted to the history of the great American game in the capital city. In a 2,000 square foot space tucked down the left field line and free to ticket holders during Saints games, fans can learn about the memorable teams and players on the east side of the Twin Cities stretching back more than a century.
 
The museum uses a variety of artifacts and displays to tell the story of St. Paul’s baseball history, from early contests in the late 1800’s to its crosstown rivalry with the Minneapolis Millers to the “new” Saints franchise that started in 1993. It also includes information on the St. Paul Colored Gophers (an early 1900’s black baseball powerhouse) and Toni Stone, a St. Paul native who became one of the only women to play professionally in the Negro Leagues. In one of the displays titled “Brushes With Greatness,” the museum highlights the famous names that appeared at Lexington Park in the 1920’s. When Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig visited in 1927, the duo “spilled nearly a quart of ink autographing baseballs and scorecards for small boys,” according to the Pioneer Press.
 
 
On Monday, July 1, the Halsey Hall chapter of the Society for American Baseball Research will be staffing a booth at CHS Field for the 7:05 pm game against the Lincoln Saltdogs. This game will also feature a historical giveaway as the first 2,000 fans will receive a 1937 Saints replica jersey. Attendees will be able to view the local chapter’s banner, “Beyond the Twins: Hall of Famers in Minnesota,” which highlights famous athletes who played in the North Star State prior to 1960 such as former Saint Roy Campanella, the legendary Dodgers catcher who became the first black player in the American Association. Chapter members will also be on hand to discuss other opportunities to get involved in local baseball history. To buy tickets, please visit the Saints website.

Justin Morneau addressed the throng of Minnesota Twins fans gathered at Target Field on Saturday night. There to celebrate the retirement of Joe Mauer’s jersey, it was the other half of the “M&M Boys” that offered some thoughts. Among his comments Justin noted that Joe’s favorite player growing up was Kirby Puckett. The star of yesteryear is thought fondly of, while the one currently receiving organizational praise is heavily scrutinized. It’s probably time to put down that cause and appreciate them equally.
 
Puckett was the Willians Astudillo of decades ago. He was the short and stocky athlete that allowed every man, woman, and child to believe their major league dreams weren’t so far out of reach. Puckett didn’t toil away in the minor leagues though, as he was a man who performed admirably on the highest stage. A batting champ, 10 time All Star, six-time Gold Glove winner, and member of two World Series teams, the peak was as good as there ever was. The result was a Hall of Fame induction and years of post-playing career celebration.
 
The parallels between the Twins hero that was and the one that was before run so deep. It’s in that reality that the need to divide the two remains so unfortunate.
 
Twins fans will never stop wondering what Puckett’s career may have been had it not been cut short due to Glaucoma. Those same fans will never have to guess what Mauer’s career looked like after a brain injury changed his trajectory forever. One of the two saw his days on the diamond end immediately, only to be instantly celebrated with a Hall of Fame induction at the first opportunity. The other was forced to remake himself, miscast in a new role, and playing on a contract offered under different circumstances. A similar crossroads was approached, but next steps moved the two players in opposite directions.
 
There’s certainly something to be said about achieving the ultimate goal, a World Series title in baseball. That’s not an individual accomplishment in this sport however, even with the highlight reel offerings provided during both stretches. Puckett contributed to those trophies while Joe was never presented the same opportunity. It’s probably in those accomplishments that the division begins.
 
Whether you like analytics or not, Puckett’s career was worth a total of 44.9 fWAR, or roughly one spot higher than Mark Texeira on the all-time leaderboard. Joe Mauer topped 50 career fWAR, and while he played three more seasons, the time at first base was largely to his detriment. The most obvious parallel between these two is their injuries and how one was ended and the other was changed.
 
We’ll get to a point in the next five years where Joe Mauer’s Hall of Fame candidacy becomes a reality. Writers will need to put pen to paper, and the decision will come down to whether a catching career reminiscent of Johnny Bench is worthy of induction. He was the best in the game for roughly a decade, but following injury, played out of position and over his head in a role miscast for his skillset. Where Puckett got benefit of doubt regarding his injury, Joe will be judge because of his.
 
It’s fair to wonder what if for Kirby. Although he was set to be 36 years old in 1996, coming of an .894 OPS season doesn’t suggest that regression was close. A first ballot inclusion likely would not have been the result, but future celebration was sure to come. The reverse narrative will need to work in Mauer’s favor, and a campaign pushed by those in Twins Territory should be what fuels that fire. Rather than continuing to debate a contract signed under different circumstances, or a personality that didn’t jump off the page, celebrating the greatness that was should be a unifying discussion.
 
Players like Kirby and Joe don’t come along often for organizations. Even those that are the best rarely sustain that production for this type of length, and for every All-Star selection there is, very few push the envelope towards a Hall of Fame discussion. When each new ballot comes out, and there’s an opportunity for a bronzed cap to be added in the halls of Cooperstown, it should be something we all find excitement in.
 
Joe Mauer’s favorite player was Kirby Puckett. Puck might have considered Joe one of his favorites as well. You can bet that Kirby is waiting to welcome Joe into The Hall, and its time Twins fans get on board with that movement as well.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

The year was 2017 and the month was August. Byron Buxton had just been shelved since mid-July, entered with a .604 OPS, and was ready to get back on the field. The Minnesota Twins needed a jolt to push towards the playoffs and man did his month of August provide it. A .973 OPS across 29 games ended up vaulting him onto the national scene and he was rewarded with an 18th place finish in the American League MVP voting. Fast forward to 2019 and we’re watching it happen again.
 
Right now, Buxton doesn’t own a .973 OPS, and no 29-game sample size has jumped off the page quite like that final month of summer did. However, it’s what Byron Buxton has done this season that is getting deserved recognition across the sport. He isn’t going to win an MVP award because Mike Trout exists, but behind arguably the greatest player to ever step on the diamond, Buxton is currently the second-best centerfielder in the game.
 
On May 13th Buxton had played 37 games for the Twins and his 17 doubles led all of baseball. He had just one homer, but his .275 average and .806 OPS were plenty promising. This date is significant as it was then that I offered the following thoughts on Twitter:
 

 
We’re now roughly a month out from that Tweet, and things have gone as expected. Buxton’s hard-hit rate since that date is 38.6%. He has jumped the 2% HR/FB rate all the way up to 25% and has six dingers. He still leads the American League with 21 doubles (trailing only Josh Bell’s 25 across baseball), but the longball is now being incorporated back into his game. I have long believed Buxton won’t hit for average as much as he’ll combine to hit for power. If the .270 sticks, so be it, but the .500+ SLG is exactly what I’d like to see.
 
You already know about the defensive acumen. Buxton leads baseball in Outs Above Average (10) and Actual Catch Percentage (94%). His 9 DRS is third in the big leagues, and his UZR is also off the charts. It’s fair to suggest that, when healthy, he’s the most dynamic player on defense that the sport currently employs.
 
What is great, and maybe less known, is that the offensive outburst looks sustainable. He’s decreased his chase and whiff rates. His contact rate is a career high, and the hard-hit rate is a substantial improvement. The ball is on the ground nearly 10% less than career averages, and he’s not just trying to beat out ground balls as has been previously suggested to him. This is a good hitter that allowing his tools to work and is creating absolute nightmares for opposing pitchers because of it.
 
It really doesn’t matter where he hits in Rocco Baldelli’s lineup. I’ve talked about moving him up previously, and something like 6th or 7th seems to make sense. Even if he stays in the 9-hole though, this is a guy that’s settled in and finally comfortable showing off the ability that has been there all along.
 
While he won’t win the MVP award, he’s a top 10 candidate at this point in the season, and even that may be a bit too light.

If you’ve followed me for any amount of time on Twitter, you know that I’m skeptical when it comes to the Minnesota Twins cult hero. Willians Astudillo made his MLB debut last season, and after a September explosion, fans around Twins Territory lost their collective minds. Both from a conceptual and statistical perspective he’s been a lightning rod player for me, and someone I’ve struggled to get on board with.
 
Rather than tweeting in short bursts I thought it pertinent to organize my thoughts in a single blog post with supporting facts and use this as a point of reference. Maybe some number of months from now this will be something that you can point to as a massive miss for me. If that ends up being the case, Minnesota likely benefits, so we all win in that case.
 
To date Astudillo has 62 games in his major league career. 29 of those games came during September 2018 in which he posted an .887 OPS. He swatted eight extra-base hits (three homers), .379 wOBA and 139 wRC+. On top of his offensive contributions, he also played six defensive positions for Minnesota. The next 33 games came to open the 2019 season, in which he posted a .630 OPS, .267 wOBA, and a 62 wRC+.
 
As Twins Daily’s Nick Nelson alluded to me on Twitter, we’re dealing with two sample sizes spanning roughly 100 plate appearances. Generating definitive conclusions off either scenario is not entirely fair, but I’m attempting to tie feelings into statistical output. Without being completely dismissive of those 97 September plate appearances, they took place during the most watered-down portion of the big-league schedule. His slump or injury has been credited with the slide in 2019, but the reality is that aside from his first three games (6-for-9), he owns a .537 OPS across 110 plate appearances.
 
My belief is that Astudillo must entirely shift his approach at the plate in order to see sustained big-league success. Astudillo saw 2.93 P/PA this season, the lowest in baseball, with the next closest being the Angels Andrelton Simmons (3.03). It’s not that swinging early and often isn’t a viable process, it’s the way in which Astudillo uses it that’s the problem.
 
Minnesota’s utility man owned just a 28.8% hard hit rate this season (31.9% in 2018) and puts the ball on the ground 40% of the time. He also popped up on one-fifth of his batted balls. With as much swinging as Astudillo does, while avoiding strikeouts and walks, it’s not a surprise he has a 95% contact rate. Unfortunately, he also has chased 47% of the time (40% in 2018). The summary of his plate discipline and approach is a guy who doesn’t hit the ball hard, puts it on the ground, and isn’t fast enough to make a difference.
 
If there’s going to be a successful career ahead with the Twins or elsewhere, something must give for Astudillo. He’s done this swing early, avoid strikeouts, and don’t walk for the entirety of his pro career. A pop-up season in the PCL saw a strong OPS, but his minor league OPS is .759. There’s some pop in the bat, but he doesn’t work counts enough to find good pitches. Major league hurlers make him eat out of their hand, and he obliges regularly. This profile is the exact representation of why strikeouts aren’t bad and are arguably worse than any other out.
 
I touched on a guy who isn’t patient earlier. The Angels Simba swings often too, but he’s become a strong hitter (for average) with a hard-hit rate in the upper 30’s. The ground ball rate isn’t good (and it’s why his SLG will never be favorable), but he only chases pitches out of the zone roughly 30% of the time. Not a slugger by any means, Simmons finds a strike and attacks it while Astudillo attacks almost any pitch thrown his way.
 
The greatest asset Astudillo provided Minnesota in the early going this year was that he had positional flexibility. He’s able to stand almost anywhere on the diamond but grades out as roughly average at all those places. Lacking a standout defensive skill, and currently employing an approach not conducive to big league success, there’s an uphill battle ahead of him.
 
It’s great when players like this excite a fanbase or represent a polarizing figure in the clubhouse. What’s worth keeping in perspective, however, is that there’s still a game being played between the lines and casting aside reality, or the merits of other players is something that will only make the letdown that much more difficult. Here’s to hoping an overhaul can be made during his stint on the farm. The more contributors Rocco Baldelli has, the better.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Introducing Through a Child’s Eyes
A blog about how kids experiencing winning Twins baseball for the first time connect and have fun without concerns of payroll, unwritten rules, or judgement.
 
The Twins’s postseason run and World Series Championship in 1991 was the first time I really got into baseball. I remember the 1987 Championship, but not that well as I was only six at the time. But 1991 put me in the prime age range to catch on to a fun club for a magical season. As my mom tells it, I was up early each morning to flip open the sports page of the Duluth News-Tribune to read the game recap and check the box score. I hated games out west that missed the deadline.
 
I’ve always followed the club, but with a handful of years as the exception they’ve generally been a pretty bad franchise. Like many of us, I’ve thought back to 1991 a lot this year. In part, because the team seems to have “it” this year, but mostly because my kids are, for the first time, experiencing fun, winning baseball. They are 9(girl), 8(boy), almost 7(boy), and 5 (boy).
 
Fox Sports North is on in the evenings at our house most nights, year-round. We follow all sports and the kids have wide-ranging interests. Prior to this season, baseball has been something they play, something they’re aware of, but not something with which they have any connection.
 
Now we’re doing math on batting averages, they think Buxton is the world’s fastest man, and we’re talking about “triple home-runs” and the “real deal.” I hear my left-handed throwing son (8) want to be a catcher (sorry, bud.) My daughter (9) loves Garv-sauce. They ask about the back of baseball cards and we discuss the history of the game. My nearly seven-year-old wants to be an Air Force pilot like Ted Williams.
 
Let me share one story as a quick introduction- My eldest son recently hollered to me while I was in the bathroom, “Dad, Buxton just swung at a slider, now it’s the real deal!”
 
Me: “The real deal?”
Son: “Yes! You know, three balls and two strikes!”
Me: “You mean a full count?”
Son: “Yeah, but with two outs! The real deal!”
 
We laughed about it, and now in our house, a full count at-bat with two outs is now a Real Deal.
 
I intend to write once or twice a week and share stories as my kids learn the game from a different perspective- a winning one- and hopefully fall in love with baseball. I hope you’ll come along with us as it’s been fun to watch baseball again as many of us first learned it -Through a Child’s Eyes.
 
 
The author, Tim Fredrickson lives with his family in Brainerd, MN. He can be found on Twitter @TimFredrickson.

This just hit the wire. Apparently Carlos Carrasco has been diagnosed with some sort of blood condition. Hopefully he gets the medical care he needs to get back on the field.
 
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26904907/carrasco-blood-condition-indefinitely

For those who may be new to this game, I’ll give a detailed breakdown.
So when a pitcher faces a batter, three dice are rolled. The white die determines which card will be used; 1 to 3 summons the hitter card, and 4 to 6 summons the pitcher card. The two red dice will determine the outcome of the play. In a standard game, one would switch out the hitter cards for each batter and the pitcher cards during any pitching change. However, for my setup, I will be using the Master Hitting and Master Pitching cards. This prevents the need for a card for each player, which is also great because I’m cheap and hate spending money to buy more stuff!
Here’s part of my custom-made hitting card:

 
But how random and how varied can each player be if they’re all using the same card? The answer to that would be in the player’s skill level. At the current moment, here are the skills that are recorded:
Hitting 1 to 8 (higher number being the better value)
Power 1 to 8
Speed E to AA
Fielding 1 to 5
Drawing walks 1 to 5
Strikeout tendency 1 to 5
 
And for the pitchers:
Preventing hits 1 to 8
Preventing HRs 1 to 5
Allowing walks 1 to 5
Getting strikeouts 1 to 5
Here is an example; the current Twins squad:


 
This roster was created with stats from Baseball-Reference with specific cutoffs for each rank for each skill. Now here is a picture of some of the cuttoffs:

 
It can take a little while to come up with the teams since I have to research every single player, but this process helps me becoming more informed about other teams’ players
If you’re unfamiliar with Strat-O-Matic baseball, there are also a few supplemental charts. There’s the X-Chart, which either sees a groundball or flyball get hit at a certain position that will be difficult to play. Great defenders will almost always make the play, but the poorer the fielder, the higher chance of an error or a hit (lack of range, I guess). Here’s a screenshot of the X-Chart:

 
And there’s also the Strategy Chart. This determines how groundballs and flyouts will be fielded, and allows for managers to try bunting, hit-and-run, bringing the infield in, and more. Since I’m playing alone (is that weird to you guys?), I get to decide what strategy for each team might be the best. This also applies to pitching changes and offensive substitutions. Here’s part of the chart:

 
With all this put together, let’s test a plate appearance and see how things work:

 
In this scenario, Jorge Polanco faces Ryan Yarbrough. He rolls a 4-5, which goes to the pitching card, with the number 5. With this roll, the batter will groundout (though all runners on base will advance); however, if the pitcher is a #4 or 5 in strikeouts, the batter will strike out. Also, if the pitcher is a #1 or #2 hitting-wise, the batter will hit a single. Since Ryan Yarbrough is a #3 strikeout-wise and #5 hitting-wise, Polanco grounds out.
 
I hope you understand how the Strat-O-System works a little better now, and I’ll be bringing you another game this weekend. Post any questions or suggestions you may have!

It's been exactly one week since the Twins last off day, an unplanned off day prompted by a wet field in Los Angeles, so now is a good time to assess what has gone right, and what has gone wrong for the team since then.
 
The Good
A 5-1 record since the last day off. Simply put the Twins have been mashing in that time with a convincing win over the Angels, a sweep against the White Sox, and a well-played 2 game split against one of the National League's best teams the Milwaukee Brewers. In those 6 games, the Twins have outscored their opponents 51-23, Max Kepler has collected AL Player of the Week honors, and have increased their divisional lead from 7 games to 10 games. Obviously when you have that record a lot has gone well, but starting pitching has to be the biggest plus in those six games. Starters allowed just 7 earned runs in 36 innings in this time.
 
The Bad
Although the team has been playing well, there has been some rough patches, particularly for the Twins bullpen. Austin Adams gave up 5 earned runs while only recording 2 outs in the final game in Los Angeles. Luckily the Twins were up by 14 prior to Adams' appearance and would still win by 9. However, it led to Adams being waived and claimed by the Detroit Tigers. Adams' roster spot was taken by Zack Littell who pitched two clean innings against Chicago in the series opener on the 24th. The other bad out of the Twins pen is Taylor Rodgers being taken deep. Rodgers came into both games against Milwaukee and proceeded to give up a home run in both appearances. In the first game he gave up what would be a game winning 2-run shot to Orlando Arcia, and gave up a harmless solo homer to Yasmani Grandal last night. Of course this is not so bad if the team continues to have three-plus run leads, but Rodgers will be called upon in high leverage situation the rest of the way, and will need to find a way to avoid leaving pitches over the heart of the plate. Rodgers has been one of Minnesota's best relievers and I anticipate him finding himself again.
 
The Ugly
The Twins have been bitten a bit by the injury bug as of late. Mitch Garver has been on the injured list with a high ankle sprain, but looks to possibly return this weekend. Nelso Cruz has taken his time returning from a sore wrist. Starter Michael Pineda was placed on the injured list yesterday with right knee tendinitis. Finally, center fielder Byron Buxton had a nasty collision with Target Field's center field wall last night and is currently listed as day-to-day with a bruised right knee. All of these things sound benign enough, but the Twins need to remain healthy to continue their torrid pace, and any sort of setback could drastically hurt the team especially a setback to Buxton or Garver who have been among the league's best at their respective positions.

In part two of this series we will be looking at the 2010 MLB draft. This series is about looking at how the Twins did in the draft during the past decade, not a wine piece. We will see positives and negatives in the Twins’ draft prowess. Another intention of this piece is to simply show how hard it is to draft and develop MLB players.
 
With the 21st pick in the 2010 draft the Minnesota Twins selected RHP Alex Wimmers out of the Ohio State University. Wimmer never lived up to expectations that can largely be blamed on injury that greatly affected his development. In 2010 Wimmers was diagnosed with UCL issues but at the time the team and doctors, along with Wimmers seemed to think he could heal the ligament with rest and rehabilitation so he elected to not have Tommy John Surgery. After almost two years of this he finally had Tommy John and was never able to live up to the expectations that come with being a first round pick. Wimmers did end up making it to the majors with the Twins but did not do well. As of now he does not have a pitching gig and last pitched for the Marlins’ AAA affiliate in 2018. Wimmers’ career numbers are as follows:1-3 with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.662 WHIP. His WAR ended up being 0.2 in his 24.2 innings that span 22 games. Wimmers caught on with the Marlins organization in 2018 but only played four games with their AAA affiliate before being released.
 
The five picks that came after the Twins were:
22. TEX: Kellin Deglan, HS Catcher
23. MIA: Christian Yelich, HS First baseman
24. SF: Gary Brown, Cal State-Fullerton CF
25. STL: Zack Cox, Arkansas Third Baseman
26. COL: Kyle Parker, Clemson Outfielder
 
Kellin Deglan
While we think that most of these guys have probably already become whatever they are going to be, Deglan is the one guy in this group that might still have a chance, but it’s doubtful. We know that catchers take a little longer to develop than most other positions but Deglan has not shown any spectacular skills in the minors such as a guy like Mitch Garver did. Deglan is a career .223 hitter in the minor leagues. He spent a little time in the Australian Baseball League before coming back to the organization that drafted him in the Texas Rangers. The Rangers ended up letting him go and he has been splitting time between the AA and AAA affiliates of the New York Yankees ever since. If Deglan is ever able to make it to the show, it will be his good but not great defense that will earn him the call.
 
Christian Yelich
Just like in 2009, the Twins missed out a future MVP. Of course we don’t know if Yelich would have developed the same way with the Twins as he did with the Marlins but his career 29.4 WAR would look awfully good in the middle of this current Twins lineup. Drafted as a first baseman, Yelich has found a home in the outfield with two National League clubs in the Marlins and was traded to the Brewers for four prospects in the winter of 2018 and went on to win the NL MVP the ensuing season. In an absolutely loaded draft, Yelich may be the best but is certainly in the top five of all of the player drafted in 2010 in a draft that included, among others; Bryce Harper (1), Jameson Taillon (2), Manny Machado (3), Yasmani Grandal (12), Chris Sale (13), and a few other MLB stars. Before you get mad about the selection, just remember that this is a highly difficult process and 21 other teams also missed on this guy.
 
Gary Brown
Brown spent only six seasons in professional baseball, playing in seven career MLB games and checking in at a 0.1 career WAR. Brown got off to an amazing start to his professional career, he was the 2011 California Player of the Year in his first full professional season and was largely considered the Giants center fielder of the future. He had 53 stolen bases that season and was quickly shooting up the prospect lists. He never sustained any major injuries during his MiLB career but never came close to repeating his performance in A+ that got everyone excited in 2011. He shuddered through four more minor league seasons and got a chance with the Giants as a September call-up in 2014 where he got into seven games, went 3-7, and was then sent into DNF hell the following offseason. He got a chance with both the LAA and STL but was not able to do much with either of their AAA affiliates and faded out of the Independent league a year later. Brown would later blame the hype he received after his first full year’s success as the reason he stopped getting better, he stopped making adjustments because he already felt he was good enough. For more on that here is a very interesting article about Brown, https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/giants/gary-brown-never-recovered-field-2015-dfa-hurt-me-my-core .
 
Zack Cox
Early on Cox looked like the steal of this draft, ranking as Baseball America’s #62 prospect in the preseason of 2011 and #88 in 2012. Cox played well early on in his MiLB career but was later limited by injuries and then started to move around the league. He was traded to the Marlins for Edward Mujica at the deadline in 2012. After that he was drafted in the 2015 Rule 5 draft by the Nationals and then released in April 2016. He was signed by the Tigers in 2017 but elected free agency after not playing much and has not resurfaced in the MiLB since. In between his time with the Nationals and Tigers organization he did play fairly well for the Wichita Wingnuts of the International League but has since left baseball and was unable to ever make it to the “Bigs.”
 
Kyle Parker
Besides Yelich, nobody on this list has played more MLB games than Parker with 64. Unfortunately for him in the Rockies that equates to a -1.6 WAR. Parker got a chance but was never able to live up to expectations of the first round pick, just like four of the other five guys on this list. He went 24-132 in his career and was released following spring training in 2016. He signed a minor league deal with the Reds that April and played with their AAA team but was released in June of the same year. Parker does have an interesting story apart from his failed MLB career, he spent three years at Clemson University where he played both football and Baseball. He was Clemson’s starting QB for two seasons before leaving when he was drafted after his third college season by the Rockies. In his NCAA football career he went 15-12 with 4,739 passing yards and 32 touchdowns in two years as a starter.
 
Overall the 2010 MLB draft gave us a lot of great ball players, this group gave us one. This group would look like a complete bust if not for Christian Yelich. This again shows us how hard it is to draft baseball players. In the next edition of this draft we will look at the Twins’ first pick in the 2011 MLB draft, Levi Michael and the players that followed him.

At some point, you have to know when to cut bait and move on. For Twins fans, that time has come for Dallas Keuchel.
 
For the last 5 seasons, Keuchel has been the Astro’s homegrown ace. From his debut in 2012, Keuchel has slowly cemented himself as one of the best starting pitchers in the game. Save for a rocky 2016 and some early growing pains, Keuchel has been nothing but solid.
 
Anchored by Keuchel and Justin Verlander, acquired from the Tigers in August of 2017, the Houston Astros have been one of baseball’s best teams for the past 3 seasons. But Keuchel is now a free agent and many Twins fans are hoping that Minnesota eventually signs him.
 
However, if Minnesota elected to sign Keuchel, don’t expect the same results from Keuchel that Astros fans have grown accustomed to seeing from him. In fact, if Minnesota signed him, it is possible that Twins fans would see the Nolasco Fiasco 2.0.
 
In 2013, the season before the Twins signed him, Nolasco’s ERA was 3.70. In 2018, Keuchel had a 3.74 ERA. Now compare that to 2017, when Keuchel had an ERA of 2.90, and you’ll see a jump of +0.84.
 
This is not the only concerning statistic. Last season, Keuchel had a WHIP of 1.31. While it is not a critical tell-all stat, WHIP is helpful in determining a pitcher’s general number of base runners allowed in a given inning. Keuchel’s WHIP of 1.3 is far above his teammate Justin Verlander’s league-leading WHIP of 0.9.
 
Last season, Dallas Keuchel gave up a league-leading 211 hits. Even more alarming is his league-leading 874 batters faced, while only pitching 204.2 innings. If you do some simple math, that’s about 4.3 batters per inning. Think about that. That’s over 1 batter higher than the minimum every single inning, which accounts for his WHIP of 1.3.
 
Besides all of these influential, albeit alarming, statistics, there is another reason to move on from Dallas Keuchel. This current front office, which has more than proven its competency with its savvy moves this season, hasn’t even given fans a whiff of the notion that it is looking at signing Keuchel. This speaks volumes in and of itself.
 
The duo of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have taken this ballclub from one of baseball’s worst to one of the best in the league in three short seasons. Their moves have positioned the ballclub to compete deep into the postseason this year and hopefully for years to come. There comes a time when fans need to trust their respective front offices and believe that they know that they are doing. For Twins fans, that time is now.
 
Someone will sign Dallas Keuchel, and soon. After June 6th, when the draft ends and teams will no longer lose a draft pick when they sign Keuchel, there will likely be a bidding war for his services. Perhaps Keuchel will return to his Cy Young form and I will have to eat crow. But if I were betting man, Keuchel will be at best just eh this season. I think so, and Twins fans should think so too.

This article appears in full on Zone Coverage here. Please click through to read it.
 
Power ranking things can be a fun exercise.
 
It can be exhausting.
 
But few things get people talking as much as seeing their favorite things — be it baseball teams, foods or pop culture phenomena — ranked in an orderly list.
 
We’ve done this in this space before, but here’s how we’d power rank the current 25-man roster of the Minnesota Twins. Like most power rankings, a special formula is used with room for the human — in this case, me! — to make slight changes to the order that it spits out, including adjustments for recent performance.
 
1. SS Jorge Polanco: It’s not even really close. He has an OPS over 1.000 and he’s playing stellar defense at short. At 26 in July, he could still be a superstar in the making.
 
2. CF Byron Buxton: What a turnaround. Buck is hitting, running and throwing at a well above-average level, and is starting to look like the guy who had a “Torii Hunter floor” when he was coming up. He’s still prone to some ugly strikeouts, but he’s come so, so far.
 
3.SP Jake Odorizzi: Odorizzi is proving that you can work with the high fastball and make it happen. In fact, hitters know it’s coming and have still been powerless to do anything about it. Literally, Odorizzi has allowed just 0.68 homers per nine innings — a career-low.
 
4. LF Eddie Rosario: Rosario is picking up where he left off before injuring his shoulder last year as a low-OBP, low strikeout slugger who can put a powerful swing on just about anything. It’s a fun skill set because it’s so rare in the current MLB landscape.
 
5. SP Jose Berrios: It says a lot when a player is still in the top five among his peers and people are talking about his relative ‘struggles.’ Berrios has set the bar that high, and has still pitched the best baseball of his career despite velocity that has alternated between 91 and 94 mph over his last few starts. He maintains he’s just adding and subtracting to mess with hitters — and we believe him.
 
6. RF Max Kepler: His season is not unlike Rosario’s so far, though with a little more OBP and a little less power. Of course, for a leadoff hitter that isn’t a bad thing.
 
7. SP Martin Perez: Sure, his command has slipped a bit of late, but nobody saw this coming from Perez. Well, maybe somebody did.
 
8. 1B C.J. Cron: He’s not a man of many words, but he can really hit. Cron has some trouble with pitches off the plate, but not nearly enough for it to be any sort of concern as he’s fanning just 21.1 percent of the time — well below league average. Has bat. Will travel.

This content originates at Zone Coverage here -- please click through to read it in its entirety.
 
In the mid-1980s, MLB teams colluded to keep player contracts — both in terms of length and dollars — from getting out of control. And while we’d stop short of using the c-word to describe the last two offseasons, there are some stunningly similar situations playing out before our very eyes.
 
Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel are both sitting at home twiddling their thumbs as teams now wait for the MLB draft — early next month — to pass so they can be signed without draft pick compensation being required. Future Hall of Famer Tim Raines was in the midst of his prime when he had to miss the first month of the season in 1987 because the deadline to re-sign with his original club had passed.
 
Fast-forward back to 2019, and the Minnesota Twins are the class of the American League Central and among the best teams in either league — just one year after a disappointing 78-84 finish led to a managerial firing and quite a bit of roster turnover.
 
For the second year in a row, the Twins moved slowly — or maybe deliberately is the better word — in the free-agent market, grabbing players at peak value to add to an existing roster of exciting, but unproven youngsters.
 
For the first year in a row, it’s actually working.
 
The Twins come into Wednesday’s series finale with the Los Angeles Angels with the potential for a sweep and with a record of 32-16. For those — such as myself — who aren’t mathematically inclined, that’s twice as many wins as losses. It’s the first time the Twins have been 16 games above .500 since the end of the 2010 season — the inaugural year of Target Field.
 
That feels like so long ago, doesn’t it?
 
There’s plenty of credit to go around and no shortage of worthwhile recipients for it. That includes guys like Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco and Mitch Garver from within, but also pretty much every player the Twins brought in from the outside.
 
C.J. Cron is mashing home runs you could hang laundry on. Jonathan Schoop has more than replaced Brian Dozier. Marwin Gonzalez has gotten red-hot in the month of May and looks like he’s willing to play just about anywhere to keep this thing going. Nelson Cruz was mashing until a wrist injury shelved him. On the pitching side, both Martin Perez and Blake Parker have been better than advertised.
 
That’s kind of a lot of players to add in one offseason, isn’t it? It’s almost like the Twins had a bunch of payroll room clear up and…nah. We won’t go there, but it isn’t only because Joe Mauer came off the books that the Twins were able to make these moves.
 
The Twins were able to add all these players because the free-agent market is broken — and they were one of the few teams willing to glue the pieces back together.
 
Let’s look at each player individually:
 
C.J. Cron
For the second year in a row, the Tampa Bay Rays made the baffling decision to move on from a productive player whose salary should not have been cost-prohibitive. After 2017, that player was Corey Dickerson, who went on to hit .300/.330/.474 for the Pittsburgh Pirates while making a tidy $5.95 million.
 
Even if the Rays want to cry poverty, that’s hardly a kingly sum for a player who still had two years of club control and was coming off one of the best seasons of his career. Also, it’s not like the Pirates are the gold standard for taking someone else’s overpaid veterans — they might even be the NL’s answer for the Rays in that respect.

Blogging about the Twins is something I have been wanting to do for a long time but life has just gotten in the way too much. Over the past five years or so I have been wanting to get into doing this but have never seen a good time to commit. I am finally at the point where I have time to start doing this and I’ve decided to just jump in. Over these past five years I have been preparing to do this by keeping a list of topics I would like to write about so I have a good inventory of subjects I am ready to cover. I hope my writing will prove to be good content for Twins fans who, like me simply can’t get enough coverage of our favorite team.
 
This first topic is going to sound like a bit of a wine piece but I am not intending it to be that way. This topic will have a lot of content so I decided to divide it into 10 parts. In my first 10 editions of of this blog I will be looking at what could have been. I know this is a topic that would have probably played better in the previous years but also think it will be fun in light of the upcoming draft and will help highlight what a crap-shoot drafting amateur baseball players truly can be.
 
In the first 10 editions of my blog I will be looking at each of the Twins’ first round draft selections over the past 10 years. I will be analyzing who the Twins drafted, how they did, and what they could have had instead.
To keep this a realistic exercise, I am going to highlight the guy the Twins actually drafted with their pick in the respective year and then will take a look at the five guys that were drafted immediately after them. I feel like this is a way to say “here are the guys we could have taken” while still keeping it realistic and avoiding saying we should have taken a certain player that all teams missed on. So without further ado here is my first blog post, I hope you enjoy.
 
2009
Twins Selection: Kyle Gibson
With the 22nd overall pick the the 2009 MLB draft, the Twins selected Kyle Gibson out of the University of Missouri. Gibson took five years to get to the major leagues which seems like too long for a college pitcher. He did have some injuries in the minor leagues that required Tommy John Surgery which we all know really takes at least two years to get right. So when this is taken into consideration taking three productive seasons to break into the big leagues is not that bad. Gibson has a career 9.3 WAR and is a nice piece for the current Twins rotation. He finally broke out last season and after starting slow this year, likely because of E.coli suffered during the off-season, he has come around a looked like a nice 3/4 starting pitcher. With the 22nd overall pick this might not be exactly what you want, but as you will soon see is not anywhere close to the worst of the group.
The next five picks:
OF Jared Mitchell- CWS
OF Randal Grichuk- LAA
OF Michael Trout- LAA
RHP Eric Arnett- MIL
SS Nick Franklin- SEA
 
As soon as you look at this list you immediately know the Twins messed it up. The best player of the generation and maybe ever was drafted three spots behind Kyle Gibson. The only thing that can be said in the Twins’ credit is that 23 other teams also missed out on the man who nine years into his career owns a 67.4 WAR and is a sure fire first ballot Hall of Famer. Heck, even the Angels weren’t sold on Trout as they took another outfielder right before selecting Trout out of Millville, NJ. So yes, the Twins missed out on the best player in baseball, but they could have done worse in selecting someone who never made it to the big leagues like a some of the group mentioned above.
Jared Mitchell made it to AAA but never to the big leagues. He was actually drafted by the Twins in the 10th round of the 2006 draft but decided to attend LSU instead. He bounced around in the minor league systems of the White Sox, Angels and Yankees for a few years and is currently playing in the Independent League as a member of the Sugar Land Skeeters. He is a career .227 hitter in the minor leagues and never got to trot onto a major league field.
 
Randal Grichuk is the only player on this list besides Mike Trout to have a higher career WAR than Gibson. His career WAR is at 10.1 and has been a good but not great MLB player for six seasons now. Although he was drafted by the Angels, he was traded as part of the David Freese trade to the Cardinals in November of 2013. He is currently a member of the Toronto Blue Jays and is signed there through the 2023 season.
 
Eric Arnett out of the University of Indiana played his entire professional career with the Milwaukee Brewers organization but never made it past high-A. Be has not played since 2013. This is likely due to his bum knee that required surgery in 2013 or the fact that he posted a 5.18 career MiLB ERA.
 
Nick Franklin made it to the big leagues but only has 301 more career games played than I do. He hit .214 across six seasons with Seattle, Tampa Bay, Milwaukee, and LAA. The last MLB game he played came in his only appearance of the season in 2018 with the Brewers. He owns a career WAR of 1.3 with is actually better than I would have expected for a guy who only played in 301 career games.
 
In conclusion, yes the Twins missed on Mike Trout, the MIKE TROUT! However it could have been much worse and they picked a decent player who is still helping them win games in 2019. Even though Grichuk has a better WAR, I feel like the Twins made the second best choice of the group as Grichuk would not be much use on the current Twins roster.
 
Up next,
2010 Draft
Twins Selection: Alex Wimmers

Even a really great meal goes stale eventually.
 
I desperately wanted the Twins to do more to upgrade the bullpen this offseason, and was supportive of the idea of them pursuing Craig Kimbrel at one point, but I'm out now. I don't really want anything to do with him.
 
My frustration with the bullpen inactivity was never tied to any one particular reliever. Things have boiled own to that, since Kimbrel is the last man standing, but there were several attractive free agent bullpen pieces out there this winter. The Twins didn't sign any of them. I'm over it.
 
I'm not saying this bullpen is fine as it's currently constructed. While Ryne Harper has been a pleasant surprise and the backed trio of Blake Parker, Taylor Rogers and Trevor May has mostly looked good, there are some legit concerns about the depth.
 
But bringing in a project isn't the answer. Kimbrel is one of the greatest closers of all time. There's also a reason why he's still unemployed. Here are a few:
 
-He has to be rusty. This is item No. 1 with a bullet. There's no way he can possibly be sharp, I don't care what kind of simulated games he may be throwing.
 
-He had a 4.57 ERA in the second half and a 5.91 ERA in the postseason last year.
 
-His fastball velocity dropped from 98.72 mph in 2017 to 97.63 mph last year.
 
-It actually took him awhile to work up to that velocity last season, sitting below 97 mph through April. Yes, he's been working out, but I'd still be concerned it would take him some time to get up to full speed.
 
-His ground ball rate dropped from 37.0% to 28.2% last year.
 
-His line drive rate went up from 19.4% to 24.8% last year.
 
-He had a worse first-pitch strike rate (56.3%) than Fernando Rodney last year.
 
-He had the eighth-lowest rate of pitches in the zone (36.6%) of the 151 qualified relievers last year.
 
-He walked 12.6% of the batters he faced last year. That is horrible. It was the 20th-worst rate among 336 pitchers who logged more than 50 innings last year.
 
In nearly every single positive mention of the Twins I see, there is somebody in the comments who calls for Kimbrel. I get it, I just think the idea of Kimbrel doesn't even accurately reflect who he actually is at this point.
 
If the Twins seek to improve the bullpen, they should be looking for guys who are trending upward. Or at least, you know, active. Maybe Kimbrel will be great, I don't know, but I am comfortable with another team taking on that project. There are other ways to boost the bullpen.

Even though I'm not a Minnesotan, nor do I live in this beautiful state, I've been observing you guys for years. I see a lot of pessimism when it comes to sports. And who can blame you? Few fans in America love their teams as much as you do and, at the same time, have endured such traumatic playoff moments with the Vikings and Wild or such long playoff draughts with the Twins and Timberwolves. You have the right to be – in the words of our Twins Daily own Parker Hageman – dead inside when it comes to sports. Well, maybe it's time to believe again.
I don't live in the US and I haven't set foot there since May 2013. I'm from a country where most people literally have no clue of what baseball is. I met the game of baseball in 2008, at age 16. So, it's nearly impossible for me to have access to any publication (or clothing items, memorabilia, sports gear...) about the sport. But, miraculously, one of my students gave me a very special gift some weeks ago.
Having taken an exchange programme to the USA in 2015, he was hosted by a Kansas City family during his time there. He knows nothing about baseball himself, but his family did and they gave him a Sports Illustrated 2015 World Series Commemorative Issue. He kept that, only to, almost four years later, give that as a present to his all-time favorite teacher. I was thrilled. I almost didn't even care about the fact that the Royals are a Twins division rival. Afterall, it was the first baseball publication I ever laid hands on.
The magazine sat on my desk at home for some days. In the meantime, the Twins flourished as the team with the best record in baseball. I would be lying if I said I saw that coming, but I can't say I'm shocked by that either. But a lot of people are, indeed, shocked. I lost count of how many people on social media are doubting the Twins. “Enjoy 'em while you can, 'cause they won't last”. And that's not even from people outside of Minnesota only. Like I explained on the first paragraph, many Minnesotans don't believe their Twins are for real. That made me a little mad. And then, the magazine spoke to me.
In the midst of so much pessimism and disbelief coming from every which way, I started browsing through that $12.99 SI issue from November of 2015 and I thought to myself: why can't the Twins be this year's version of the 2015 Royals? And believe me or not, I found a lot of similarities between the two teams. I'm not saying here that Minnesota will win the World Series. All I'm saying is that it's OK to believe in it – like I do right now.
Even though we've had our hearts broken by the Brett Favre interception, the Gary Anderson and Blair Walsh missed field goals, the Jimmy Butler fiasco, the Joe Nathan blown save in the '09 ALDS and, well, the whole Wild playoff history, you might not be a fool to let your guard down for this Twins team. If you don't believe me, let us go through some of the things these two great ball clubs have in common.
 
A couple of underdogs
When experts started predicting what would happen that season, almost none of them believed the 2015 Royals would even make the playoffs. Which, in retrospect, is kind of odd, considering they had just been to the World Series less than six months earlier. In his opening piece, Jay Jaffe wrote about how the Royals were picked by specialists to make it to the postseason in only 13 of 149 predictions.
Maybe this year’s Twins are not as much discredited as the Royals were then. Per that year’s PECOTA, Kansas City was expected to have a 72-90 record. Instead, they had a 95-67 one. This year’s PECOTA, at first, predicted an 81-81 record for the Twins, but a number of specialists considered them when predicting which team would win the AL Central.
A month and a half into the season, with over 25% of games played, Minnesota has the second best in baseball, after holding the best one overall for over a week. The Twins are on pace to win almost 105 games. I don’t actually believe they will reach triple digits in wins, but at this point it’s plausible to believe that they will surpass the 90-win mark. Curiously enough, after 43 games, the 2015 Royals and the current Twins owned an identical record of 28-15.
Another aspect that those teams have in common is the small Opening Day payroll. On that same Jaffe opening piece, he wrote that the Royals were the first team since the 2003 Marlins to win a World Series, even though they were at the bottom half of all MLB payrolls (17th, at $112.9 million). Per Spotrac, the Twins had the 18th payroll in the league on Opening Day, at $122.1 million, almost $12 million below league average.
Even their track record leading up to their World Series success is somewhat similar to the Twins. Between 2004 and 2012, Kansas City had nine losing records, never winning more than 75 games and with an average of 66 wins per season on that span. Then, they won 86 and 89 games in the two seasons before their championship year. In the six seasons that follow their last division title, the Twins won an average of 67 games each season, including a 59-103 record in 2016, the worst one in club history. They went on to win 85 and make the playoffs for the first time in seven years in 2017 and came close to an eighty win season again last year, finishing with 78.
I don’t believe in coincidences nor am I saying that all of these will have any effect on the outcome of this season. They won’t. But it’s fun to look at those facts, especially when basically no one believes smaller market teams can actually win a title. Let’s not buy into the notion that a team can only win a ring with a $200 million payroll.
A steamroller offense
Tom Verducci wrote, on that same SI issue, a piece entitled ‘Postmodern Swing’, which broke down the main strengths of that Royal offense. According to him, one of the most important features of that offense was its aggressiveness. The Royals saw the fewest pitches per plate appearance that year, with 3.71. Their philosophy was to chase after hittable pitches early and not give up easy strikes. Still, they were the team that struck out the least in MLB that year, with a 15.9% strikeout rate. They also average an MLB 7th best 4.4 runs per game. Which team has done something similar this year?
Some weeks ago, Aaron Gleeman wrote this great piece explaining how the Twins have added power and, at the same time, have been striking out much less. They have been the team that struck out the third least in MLB, currently with a 19.5% strikeout rate. In comparison with the ‘15 Royals, Minnesota is also scoring more, with a 5.4 runs per game average, and has much more power, as they lead the MLB with .236 ISO, against .144 of those Royals. In terms of pitches per plate appearance, Minnesota also doesn’t see a lot of pitches, with an average of 3.78.
Both these Twins and those Royals have something else in common. They both swing a lot and get good contact. Here is how they rank:
2015 Royals
Contact% - 81.9% (1st in MLB)
O-Contact% - 68.8% (2nd)
Swing% - 47.6% (9th)
O-Swing% - 32.5% (5th)
 
2019 Twins
Contact% - 77.5% (6th in MLB)
O-Contact% - 63.2% (7th)
Swing% - 48.1% (4th)
O-Swing% - 32.3% (6th)
And one last nice coincidence that these two offenses have. In 2015, the Royals had Alcides Escobar as their leadoff man, even though he had a low OBP, contradicting modern tendencies. Escobar finished the season with a .293 OBP. He also saw very few pitches, with an average of 3.49 per plate appearance and swung at 51.3% of pitches and managed to make contact in 83.8% of them. Looking at Minnesota’s current leadoff man, Max Kepler, we also have an aggressive hitter (51.5 % Swing% and 82.2% Contact%), who sees fez pitches (3.56 per PA) and has a not so high base occupation (.308). According to Verducci’s piece, Escobar ‘set the tone’ for the rest of the Royal lineup, making opposing pitchers aware of the fact that they wouldn’t get any easy strikes.
Quality pitching
When we talk about the Royals pitching from that World Series campaign, the first thing that comes to our minds is their extraordinary bullpen. Then, one might think that here would lie the biggest difference between the two teams. Yes, that Wade Davis led group of relievers was no match for this current Minnesota ‘pen, but when comparing the two pitching staffs overall, we can find more identical features.
Believe it or not, but the two pitching staffs have virtually the same numbers, with an inversion. Kansas City had a lights-out bullpen and a below average rotation, resulting in the 10th best ERA in the MLB. The Twins on the other hand, don’t have a stellar rotation nor bullpen, but both those groups are among the ten best in baseball.
2015 Royals
Overall: 3.74 ERA (10th), 4.04 FIP (15th)
Starters: 4.34 ERA (22nd), 4.32 FIP (21st)
Relievers: 2.72 ERA (2nd), 3.56 FIP (10th)
 
2019 Twins
Overall: 3.88 ERA (9th), 4.13 FIP (13th)
Starters: 3.66 ERA (6th), 4.23 FIP (13th)
Relievers: 4.31 ERA (19th), 3.96 FIP (9th)
Davis was out of this world that season. If there has been a reliever more deserving than him of winning the first Cy Young award in the AL since 1992, I really believe he was the best candidate. Not only did he finish the regular season with a 0.94 ERA in 61 ⅓ innings pitched, but he also neared perfection during the postseason, posting a 0.00 ERA in eight games.
I don’t see anyone within this Twins pitching staff (so far) with the ability to be what Davis was for that Royals team - but there’s no need for it. Up until now, Minnesota’s pitchers have done a decent job. The overall bullpen numbers are a bit tainted because of bad outings from young arms tested out of Rochester and because of slumps from, mainly, Trevor Hildenberger and Adalberto Mejía. But, as of this moment, six of the eight bullpen arms in the 25-man roster have an ERA of 2.76 or lower. Newcomer Austin Adams hasn’t pitched this season yet.
Their rotations can’t be compared. At least until this moment, Twins starters have done an outstanding job. Maybe we’ve set the bar too low after years of bad rotations, but things have looked extremely nice. Which, with this whole exercise of comparing these two teams can be very exciting. The Royals were world champions even though the four starters they’ve used in the postseason combined for a 4.96 ERA in 16 starts.
Deadline additions: a blueprint for the Twins
To help end the 30-year World Series drought, the Royals traded for two key-pieces near the trade deadline. They traded Brandon Finnegan, John Lamb and Cody Reed for Reds’ superstar starter Johnny Cueto and sent Aaron Brooks and Sean Manaea to Oakland in exchange for veteran super utility player Ben Zobrist. Those proved to be vital additions to their goals.
Zobrist had a solid last portion of the regular season with the Royals, slashing .284/.364/.453 (.816). During the postseason, he performed even better, hitting .303/.365/.515 (.880) and with five multi-hit games. But he also provided a much needed boost that might have made a big difference.
Before his arrival, Royals second basemen slashed .231/.251/.319 (.570). In 35 games starting at that position in the remainder of the regular season, Zobrist hit .275/.348/.457 (.805). He also played 18 games as a LF, a position in which Kansas City had a good production, with .273/.383/.467 (.850). But Zobrist managed to top even that, hitting .299/.392/.463 (.855).
 
Cueto on the other hand wasn’t as dominant as Zobrist, but he was still essential to the Kansas City success. He had a 4.76 ERA in 13 starts for the Royals during the regular season and a 5.40 ERA in the postseason, but those numbers alone can be very misleading. In four playoff starts, he had a mediocre outing (6.0 innings, 4 ER) in game 2 of the ALDS, a terrible one (2.0 IP, 8 ER) in game 3 of the ALCS, but two amazingly good ones to compensate. He pitched a on run complete game in the World Series, helping the Royals to open a 2-0 lead in the series.
So what’s the lesson the Twins can learn out of the Royals shopping in the 2015 trade deadline? It’s hard to imagine, at least based on this first quarter of the season, that Minnesota is going after big names to help their offense. I mean, all help is welcomed, but if they had to invest top prospects in one area, I don’t believe the offense would be their priority.
But when we look at their pitching staff, you can see a lot of room for improvement. As well as the rotation has pitched so far, the Twins would benefit a lot from a better arm to fill the gap Michael Pineda has been leaving until this moment. He currently has a 5.85 ERA, the worst among starters. The bullpen also could use some help - even more than the rotation. Bottomline is, it doesn’t matter how well the arms might be doing, with their clear exceptions, of course, shopping for one or two dominant arms could make a difference between a World Series victory and a quick visit to the postseason.
And who could be the best candidates? Well, if you’re talking about bringing in a starter and a reliever, one can only consider signing the two biggest unsigned names in the last offseason: former Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel and superstar closer Craig Kimbrel. But this would also represent a great risk, given the fact we don’t know in what shape they would show up. Also, there’s very little, if any, indications that Minnesota would be willing to pay them. I mean, if there’s any interest, why didn’t they pull the trigger yet?
Since that’s the most unlikely option, we should look at what possible options they could go after via trade. For rotation help, I believe the best choices that they would have would be Madison Bumgarner or Stephen Strasburg, MadBum being my favorite. For the bullpen, my favorite candidate would be old friend Liam Hendriks. But there are many more options around and I’m sure the Twins front office has a keen eye for that job.
In conclusion, smaller market teams will always raise more suspiscions than inspire confidence among non-fans. They will always doubt those teams. But the 2015 Royals are the closest example we have that this dream is doable. And, as shown during this article, they have a long list of common features with this year’s Twins. So, it’s OK to believe.

Coming into the 2019 Major League Baseball season, relief pitching was a very serious question mark. For the most part, the guys Minnesota’s front office has told us to trust in have looked the part. Ryne Harper has been a great story, and Matt Magill has flashed solid stuff. The back end of Taylor Rogers, Blake Parker, and Trevor May work. Unfortunately, that’s where things end.
 
There’s been a revolving door at the bottom of Minnesota’s bullpen, and the options to call upon are dwindling. Fernando Romero has been up multiple times, without seeing any significant success. He’s been knocked around at Triple-A, and despite great stuff, the transition to relief hasn’t gone smoothly. We’ve seen Tyler Duffey a few times, and despite dominating Triple-A, the beautiful bender has yet to see solid run in the big leagues.
 
Rocco Baldelli has been given lefty Andrew Vasquez, and former starter Adalberto Mejia looks to have flamed out. Addison Reed was on a path back through a surprise rehab stint, but he’s been hit around the park for Rochester. The only other 40-man option is lefty Gabriel Moya, who has also been bad since returning to Triple-A and hasn’t ever shown a significant level of success at the big-league level.
 
Non-40-man options are also a difficult ask at this point. Jake Reed was going well for Rochester but has hit the skids. D.J. Baxendale and Ryan Eades have gaudy ERA numbers and are allowing far too much contact. Beyond that, you’d need to dip another level down and be relatively convinced that the big jump would be warranted.
The good news is that the Twins are 27-15 while looking in command of the AL Central. The bad news is that Trevor Hildenberger nearly surrendered a four-run lead, and Mike Morin was called upon to face both Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani in massive spots today. If that development alone doesn’t call for some action, I don’t know what does.
 
Craig Kimbrel still is unsigned and can be acquired for nothing more than cash. Yes, at this point you’d need to part with a draft pick to sign him. Waiting until after the draft could be smart, but the number of teams willing to bring him in without pick compensation being thwarted likely rises in number as well. On the trade front, there’s more than a handful of bad teams that can part will relievers. Typically deals are consummated in late June at the earlier. Though the asset capital may be higher when looking to acquire talent earlier in the year, it’s worth weighing what the immediate and extra impact would be should they get into Wes Johnson’s hands sooner.
 
At the end of the day it boils down to the simple principle that the Minnesota Twins have opportunity in front of them. Given their trajectory and roster construction, this isn’t a team that should be playing for 2020. You don’t need to mortgage the farm for a one-year run but capitalizing in years where you can make noise is a must. Right now, the greatest deficiency this group has is its bullpen. Although the collective has held strong, it’s been on the back of a small inner group that is going to be burned through come summer.
 
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Here we are on May 9th and the Twins have the best record in Major League Baseball. They have had some low moments, but mostly everything has gone as well as, or better than, expected. Chatter about the Twins has been positive, especially after dominating a bad Baltimore team and then winning a series (and the season series) against the Houston Astros. A 4-2 road trip, including a dominant sweep in Toronto have put the Twins a season-high 11 games over .500.
 
I doubt everything will continue to come up roses for the Twins, it never does. They will suffer injuries and players will slump or disappoint. Even in the best of years, these things happen. However, it appears that in most respects, the team assembled by the relatively new executive team of Falvey and Levine is set up well to handle struggles and snags when they occur.
 
Let's look at what has transpired in the mostly cold and wet months of April and early May. With the exception of Miguel Sanó, the offense has been healthy and rolling. The Twins are in the top tier in the league for run-scoring, home runs, slugging and OPS. They don't walk much (most of the lineup is comprised of aggressive hitters), but they don't strike out much, relative to the rest of the league. The Twins are averaging well over five runs a game, playing many games in poor weather conditions. They appear set to challenge team records in runs scored and home runs this year. The power is well-distributed, with most of the regular lineup already hitting six or more homers. They have endured slumps from regulars and a slow start from Marwin Gonzalez (who has essentially replaced Sanó) without suffering much on the scoreboard.
 
Pitching has been a surprise. The team is in the top half of many key pitching stats, including runs per game, quality starts, shutouts, innings pitched by starters, and opponent's batting average. Three of the five starters have been outstanding, with a fourth (Kyle Gibson) rounding into form in recent starts. The starters good work has taken pressure off of the bullpen. The bullpen hasn't been spotless, but they've gotten the job done. The late-inning quartet of May, Hildenberger, Rogers and Parker has been satisfactory, if not dominating.
 
Defensively, the team is also doing very well. New acquisitions Gonzalez, Schoop and Crom have all played well in the field and the team has mostly been able to keep it's regular outfielders on the field, all of whom are plus defenders.
 
Individual performances of note include José Berríos ascending to ace or near ace status. Jorge Polanco playing good defense and breaking out with the bat, Martín Pérez finding a few mph on his fastball and coming up with a cut fastball to (so far) become an outstanding rotation piece. The catching duo of Mitch Garver and Jason Castro (with a few appearances by Willians Astudillo) has been outstanding with the bat and has been given credit for helping the pitching improve. On the negative side, Marwin Gonzalez hasn't hit much, new rotation member Michael Pineda has struggled mightily in his last four starts and several relievers at the front end of the bullpen have had trouble getting people out. Many more players have stepped it up beyond those mentioned. Basically, the good play to this point has been a team effort.
 
Can this run continue? Well, I think the competition changes with many more games against familiar opponents in the Central Division--three of those teams (KC, Chicago and Detroit) are in one stage or the other of rebuilding--so the schedule figures to be somewhat more favorable. I doubt the Twins can keep hitting so many homers (they are on a pace to hit almost 300!) and I also doubt the pitching will continue to be dominant, but there is no doubt that they are improved.
 
I think the need going forward this year is adding pitching. A starter to perhaps supplant Pineda and a strong bullpen arm would be helpful and when injuries happen, such improvements might be vital. The Twins are now considered favorites to win the Central, but they need to keep doing what they're doing.
 
Credit for this improvement should be given to Falvey and Levine, who also hired rookie manager Rocco Baldelli. They've shown they pay attention to the metrics that are part of the game now and made good decisions in putting together a team for today without breaking the bank or mortgaging the future. There's a long way to go, but the ride this year promises to be fun and it might be magical.

With the announcement that Nelson Cruz suffered a wrist injury yesterday, my immediate thought was who would replace him in the lineup and on the roster if he had to go on the injured list. It would appear to me that the answer is the much-discussed Miguel Sanó, who is on his third and last stop in his rehab program.
 
Much has been written about Sanó. I wish to confine this discussion to the ballplayer between the lines. The other stuff has been beaten to death IMHO. What will the Twins get when a healthy Sanó is on the active roster?
 
Sanó came up to the big leagues with much hype in 2015. He was going to be the power hitter the Twins hadn't had since Harmon Killebrew. Another comparison, because of size, was Frank Thomas. Sanó's rookie year was excellent. Despite being called up only at midseason, he was a contender for Rookie-of-the-Year. His traditional state line--.269 BA, 18 homers, 52 RBI was very good. Double the homers and RBIs for a full season, and there is a perennial All-Star, future Hall of Famer. Plus, he was only 22 years of age. A deeper look at his rookie stats was probably even more encouraging, while Miguel struck out over 100 times (in a half season), he also walked more than 50 times, giving him a solid OBP of .385. His OPS was a stellar .916 which yielded an OPS+ of 149. After a minor injury, Miguel only played 11 games in the field, so we couldn't be sure about his defense. For his superior half-season of work, Miguel Sanó was voted the Twins' Player of the Year.
 
2016 started with Sanó installed as the new right fielder. He was never competent or comfortable there and it seemed to affect his hitting. After a month and a half of futility in right field, Miguel moved back to third to demonstrate a rocket arm, but less-than-soft hands. His metrics at third came in below average, but at least he could hit. Well, the hitting didn't go as well either. Sanó ended up playing in 116 game, having an OPS of .781 with 19 homers and 51 RBI as the Twins flailed and failed and lost over 100 games. Sanó missed over 30 games due to injuries. Again, a deeper look into Sanó's numbers is a mixed bag. In 160 additional plate appearances, Sanó only hit one more homer than 2015, his walk rate plummeted while his strikeout rate stayed basically steady. The batting average ended at .236 and his OBP fell to.319.
 
Sanó was a deserved All-Star in 2017. He came to camp as the third baseman, healthy and came out of the gate on fire. His first-half stats were outstanding--.276, 21 homers, 62 RBI and his defense at third was satisfactory. The strikeout rate remained about the same (35%), but he also walked 44 times, a big improvement over 2016 and the OBP was .368 at the break.
 
Since the 2017 All-Star break, Miguel Sanó hasn't been very good. The combined numbers from the second half of '17 and 2018 are .211 BA, 20 homers, 56 RBI. OBP at .292, slugging .408, with an OPS of .700. The walk rate is below 10% and the strikeout rate is 38%. These are not future Hall-of-Fame numbers. They aren't even starter numbers. In addition, according to metrics (and my eyes) Sanó remains a below-average third baseman, despite a plus-plus arm.
 
To summarize this rather elongated prologue, Sanó's on-field performance has been a roller coaster. He started looking like one of the brightest stars, faded, came back to that level again and faded again. Does this up-and-down have to do with injuries? Certainly. The point here is to suggest that the Twins shouldn't be counting on Sanófor too much. Expectations of another Frank Thomas or Miguel Cabrera should be tempered by now. I think they should expect more than they gotten since the All-Star break of 2017. They should get more than Mark Reynolds-like production. If the strikeouts keep coming and the homers are too infrequent, he can still be optioned. This club looks like at least a contender for postseason. If that is the case, they shouldn't be playing guys based on potential or upside.
 
Miguel Sanó is at a crossroads in his career (in my opinion). He soon will have a chance to step on stage with a good team and help them make postseason, and maybe have success there. He's now 26 and shouldn't be judged on what he might do, he should be judged by how he is actually performing on the field.As a Twins fan and a baseball fan, I hope he can find his earlier success. As someone who has seen a lot of hyped players come and go, I am a bit skeptical.