nclahammer

So far the 2019-2020 MLB offseason is getting off to a hot start, while the Atlanta Braves have been resigning some of their own Free Agents they signed Will Smith to a 3yr/$39M deal, they also signed Travis d’arnaud to a 2yr/$16M deal, they even signed Cole Hamels to a 1yr/$18M deal. The White Sox signed the top catcher on this year’s market by signing Yasmani Grandal to a 4yr/$73M deal. The Phillies signed one of the market’s best pitchers by signing Zack Wheeler to a 5yr/$118M deal.
The Winter Meetings start this Sunday in San Diego, California where I believe there will be some big free agent deals…. So in this post I will have 3 Bold Predictions, they will consist of 1 free agent signing, 1 big trade, and my prediction of the Houston Astros cheating scandal. I will also compare my bold predictions to some of the other big free agent signings, and trades over the last 10 years at the Winter Meetings.
Bold Prediction #1-
Madison Bumgarner will sign the richest Free Agent contract. Bumgarner will sign with the Minnesota Twins for 5yrs/$125M. Bumgarner has a better track record than that of Zack Wheeler, and Bumgarner will be the veteran pitcher the Twins will need to help win some playoff games this year. According to MLB Network insider Ken Rosenthal the White Sox gave Zack Wheeler a 5 year deal worth more money, but Wheeler wanted to stay on the East coast so he can stay close to his fiance's family. Back in 2011 the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim signed future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols to a 10yr/$240M contract.
Bold Prediction #2-
Chicago Cubs trade: 3B Kris Bryant
Los Angeles Dodgers trade: RHP Dustin May, SS Jeter Downs, and OF Alex Verdugo
I don’t know how likely this trade will happen at the winter meetings, but there are rumors that the Cubs might trade Kris Bryant this offseason and I believe that the most likely destination is the Los Angeles Dodgers. If the Cubs were to trade Kris Bryant they would be asking for some pretty big prospects from the Dodgers, and the Cubs will get a RHP in Dustin May who could help now and an outfielder who can play center field for the next several years. The last big trade to happen at the Winter Meetings was back in 2016 where the Boston Red Sox traded for Chris Sale and gave up Infielder Yoan Moncada (Red Sox #1 prospect according to MLB.com), RHP Michael Kopech (Red Sox # 5 prospect), Outfielder Luis Basabe (Red Sox #8), and RHP Victor Diaz (Red Sox #28).
Bold Prediction #3-
I have this prediction coming out at the end of the Winter Meeting’s, but I have the punishment for the Houston Astros for the cheating scandal that started in 2017. It will be hard to predict all the punishments Houston will receive. The thing I do predict is that they will receive fines, loss of draft picks, and suspensions. The Winter Meetings will end with a bang with the punishment for the Astros no pun intended.

Judging the fielders in the age of shifts is a difficult challenge. As I read about Sano – should he move to 1B I am constantly trying to evaluate what the qualities are for those two bases. 3B – quick reflexes (believe me the ball gets to 3B quick) and a strong arm. 1B – reflexes of a different type, not grabbing missiles, but rather erratic throws, short hops, flexibility to stretch and grab, and still a range for fielding the position. 1B have that strange responsibility for “covering the base” when a runner is on, anticipating throws from C and P. It is a very challenging and underestimated fielding position.
 
For generations we have put the big lunking Ted Klusewski or Dick Stuart at the base and just said throw at the body and he will be okay. Keith Hernandez and Joe Mauer were fielding examples at 1B, but Brooks Robinson, Nolen Arenando would not be mistaken for those 1B rolemodels because they are the gold standard for 3B.
Sano is not quick but seems to have the reflexes for third and the arm to respond when balls bounce off his body. What now we shift and suddenly he is a SS – does anyone see him as a SS? He moves towards the “hole” and he has more area to cover. Now we need foot speed as well as reflex.
 
The SS and 2B positions have now overlapped and the challenge for the players today is to make the turn at second base coming from so many new angles. Of course, in the launch angle age there is a major decrease in DPs.
 
We used to judge these positions by range and athleticism – thing Ozzie and the 2B/SS was a tandem – Groat and Mazeroski, Fox and Aparicio, Grich and Belanger, Whitaker and Trammell (why is Trammel in the HOF and not Whitaker?), Robinson and Reese, and Morgan and Concepcion are examples. We had Versalles and Bernie Allen…
 
In 2015 Dave Schoenfield wrote – “In 2015, the MLB average was 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings and 2.9 walks; in 1955, it was 4.4 and 3.7. That means more balls in play and more baserunners in 1955, although even with fewer home runs per team in 1955, the overall number of double plays has remained steady: 121 per team in 1955, 125 per team in 2015.” Fascinating stats show that the GDP leader stats do not really change from year to year. Ernie Lombardi (Mr Slow feet) 26 in 1933, Manny Machado 24 - 2019. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/GIDP_leagues.shtml
 
What has changed is the fact that 2B now a hybrid SS. Is Polanco a good SS in the old system? How does he and Arraez fit the new paradigm.
 
Do we need to consider changing the names of the positions? Are players really interchangeable at these positions?

Although we have grown accustomed to slower offseason activity when it comes to Major League Baseball free agency, that doesn't make the reality any more exciting. Sure, the Minnesota Twins have spent $30 million already in retaining Nelson Cruz and Jake Odorizzi, but the true free agents are still out there. Before adding new talent to Twins Territory the franchise gave fans something else they've been clamoring for over the past few years; the baby blue's.
 
In 2020 Majestic is being replaced as the official Major League Baseball jersey provider. Initially Under Armour was set to take over the contract, but that deal fell through and now the Maryland based company has a whole different set of problems on their hands. At any rate, it's always been Nike that has pushed the boundaries and set the standard in trends. Before Minnesota made any moves, we got to see this in action.
 

 
First up it was the San Diego Padres unveiling some new threads. Brown has made cameo appearances on their Swinging Friars jerseys for some time, but it is in 2020 that we'll see it in full force. I remember seeing these come across my timeline on Twitter and thinking that Nike was making a very nice first step.
 

 
When news leaked that the Milwaukee Brewers would be going back to the ball-in-glove logo for the 2020 season it only made sense there'd be a new configuration. I'm a big fan of the alternate logo as well, depicting an "M" within the state of Wisconsin outline. The absolute highlight of that reveal though was the navy blue offering that set the stage ablaze.
 

 
Not to be outdone by their eastern neighbors, the Minnesota Twins have decided to bring back the baby blue alternates for the upcoming season. Arguably the most-talked about jersey, and the one reminiscent of everyone from Kirby Puckett to Kent Hrberk, they'll be worn early and often in the upcoming season. Officially a home and road alternate, there is no stipulations as to where the new uniforms can be donned.
 
On top of the colorway itself, the Twins are including patches on both sleeves. Minnie and Paul return to the jersey, as well as a 60 year anniversary logo. Both are very well done and should provide some added flair to a product that will likely fly off the shelves at 1 Twins Way. Although the cream alternates were a fan favorite as well, there's nothing more Minnesota Twins baseball than the baby blues.
 
There has been a slight amount of pushback regarding the chest Swoosh, as opposed to the sleeve Majestic logo. As someone generally opposed to jersey advertisements, this seems hollow at best. The Swoosh is both iconic and aesthetically pleasing. Nike has and will continue to put the right foot forward when it comes to brand design, and there's certainly a company in New York (Hi, Topps!) that will enjoy another uniform patch.
 
I don't think Nike will be controlling the Pohlad's pocketbook any time soon, but here's to hoping the jerseys are just the first of many new additions to debut at Target Field in the year ahead.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Last night the Twins Daily Twitter account tweeted out a poll, asking which free agent pitcher people would want the Twins to sign.

As I am typing this right now, 71% of people voted Wheeler, 15% voted Bumgarner, and 9% voted Ryu, with 5% saying they wouldn’t want any of the 3. I personally voted for Wheeler as well because I think he definitely has the stuff to take his game to another level, but it surprised me that an overwhelming majority of people want Wheeler, considering Bumgarner’s playoff history, and Ryu’s outstanding 2019 season.
 
I decided to breakdown their stats from last season, as well as the past 3 seasons, using common metrics (ERA, WHIP, K/9, FIP), as well some metrics I have created myself. The metrics I have created myself are BIP, and BVIP. BIP (bases allowed per inning pitched) is like WHIP, except I use total bases instead of hits, and also added HBPs. BVIP (base value allowed per inning pitched) is like BIP except it weighs each outcome to the average amount of bases they get including the baserunners. I like these stats instead of WHIP, because I think WHIP is flawed due to a single being treated the same as a homerun. Similarly to how OPS is used to evaluate a hitter now more heavily than AVG.
 
Here’s what the numbers look like:
Wheeler 2019: 207.1 IP, 3.90 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 8.8 K/9, 1.13 WHIP, 1.85 BIP, 2.90 BVIP
Bumgarner 2019: 195.1 IP, 3.96 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 9.0 K/9, 1.26 WHIP, 1.79 BIP, 2.86 BVIP
Ryu 2019: 182.2 IP, 2.32 ERA, 3.10 FIP, 8.0 K/9, 1.01 WHIP, 1.51 BIP, 2.43 BVIP
Wheeler 2017-2019: 476.1 IP, 3.90 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 8.7 K/9, 1.21 WHIP, 1.82 BIP, 2.86 BVIP
Bumgarner 2017-2019: 436.0 IP, 3.59 ERA, 3.94 FIP, 8.4 K/9, 1.21 WHIP, 1.82 BIP, 2.88 BVIP
Ryu 2017-2019: 391.2 IP, 2.71 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 8.5 K/9, 1.12 WHIP, 1.73 BIP, 2.73 BVIP
 
Clearly Ryu had the better numbers in 2019, but he also was better in almost every category over the last 3 years. Despite being 3 years older than the other 2, I think Ryu would be a great 3-4 year investment. He put up a 1.97 ERA in 82.1 IP in 2018, so I don’t think this year was a fluke, and he’s a good bet to put up solid numbers the next few years if he stays healthy. I would be all for the Twins offering him say a 3 year, $70 million deal, although I feel like there’s a good shot he stays in LA.
 
Between Wheeler and Bumgarner, their numbers are very similar from last season, the only number Wheeler has that’s clearly better than Bumgarner is WHIP. However, using my metrics you can see that Bumgarner’s BIP, and BVIP are actually better than Wheeler’s, showing that the types of hits he gives up are less dangerous than Wheeler (Bumgarner gave up 25 more singles, and 20 less extra base hits). Over the last 3 seasons their stats are almost identical, with Wheeler having the advantage in FIP, and Bumgarner having the advantage in ERA. I definitely think Wheeler can still take another step forward just based on the raw stuff that he has, but that obviously isn’t guaranteed, and that fact that Bumgarner is essentially a postseason legend is very enticing. If the Twins are able to sign either of them to a 4-5 year deal worth around $17-$20 million annually I think it would be a great investment to have another bonafied arm atop the rotation along side Berrios for years to come.
 
Let me know in the comments who you want the Twins to sign, and why, as well as what you think of the stats that I have created!

You have all been very patient waiting for my 2019-2020 offseason plan. Your patience is now rewarded as I present to you the master plan for winning the 2020 World Series. {Cue the calliope.} This plan includes six free agency signings, one major trade, three contract extensions, and one token raise as a reward for a great year.
 
The Trade to End All Trades
Step one is to call the Arizona Diamondbacks and offer them the opportunity to greatly improve their day-to-day lineup. The Twins send to Arizona Eddie Rosario, Zander Weil, Brent Rooker, and Nick Gordon to help them shore up their corner outfield positions, 2B, and 1B. In return, the Twins receive Robbie Ray and Kevin Ginkel. “Kevin Who”, you ask? During 2018 and 2019, in Double A and Triple A, Ginkel pitched 105 and a third innings allowing only 65 hits and 26 walks for a WHIP of 0.867. He held opponents to a .176 batting average. He struck out 163 (13.96 per 9 innings) and gave up only 9 homeruns. He had a brief stint with the Diamondbacks in 2019 that mirrored his minor league success. He’s only 25 and he won’t be a free agent until 2025.
 
Free Agent Signings
Pitchers
Zach Wheeler at $18M a year for 4 years.
Drew Pomeranz at $3.5M a year for 2 years.
 
Hitters
IF/OF Brock Holt at $4.5M for 2 years.
OF Derek Dietrich at $9M for 2 years.
C Travis D’Arnaud at $3.5M for 2 years.
 
Derek Dietrich and Travis D’Arnaud can both play 1B and Brock Holt plays anything but catcher and shortstop.
 
Extensions
 
Miguel Sano at $12M a year for 3 years.
Byron Buxton at $5.5M a year for 3 years.
Jose Berrios at $$7.5M a year for 3 years.
 
Token Raise
Give Mitch Garver a raise to $1M for 2020.
 
This gives the Twins a 2020 roster that looks like this:
 
26 players at $145.90M.
 
C Mitch Garver $1M
1B Marwin Gonzalez $9M
2B Luis Arraez $0.6M
3B Miguel Sano $12M
SS Jorge Polanco $4M
LF Derek Dietrich $9M
CF Byron Buxton $5.5M
RF Max Kepler $6.3M
DH Nelson Cruz $12M
OF Brock Holt $4.5M
IF Ehire Adrianza $3M
C Travis D'Arnaud $3.5M
C Willians Astudillo $0.6M
OF LaMonte Wade, Jr. $0.6M
SP Jake Odorizzi $18.7M
SP Jose Berrios $7.5M
SP Kyle Gibson $7M
SP Zach Wheeler $18M
RP Randy Dobnak $0.6M
RP Taylor Rogers $4
RP Tyler Duffey $1.3M
RP Trevor May $2.5M
RP Zack Littell $0.6M
RP Kevin Ginkel $0.6M
RP Drew Pomeranz $3.5M
Perez Buyout $0.5M
 
The top five prospects remain with the Twins. Filling the 40-man roster becomes easier. And the Twins waltz through 2020 with the best winning percentage since the 1954 Indians. What do you think????

In early December 2018 the Minnesota Twins found their replacement for Brian Dozier. With the fan-favorite having been traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers prior to his free agency, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine needed to find another second basemen. Replacing Dozier’s pop wouldn’t be easy, but they tabbed a former All Star to do so when they inked Jonathan Schoop to a one-year deal. Now with the season behind us we can evaluate how it turned out.
 
At the time of his signing I wasn’t too terribly interested in the pact. Dozier provided a significant amount of power, but also displayed strong on-base skills. For a Twins team also losing Joe Mauer, getting guys that could fill the basepaths seemed like a must. Schoop owned just a career .294 OBP and he was coming off a poor .682 OPS. After being dealt from the Orioles to the Brewers for the stretch run, things got even worse.
 
Obviously, it was the goal of Minnesota to rekindle the 25-year-old All Star that picked up MVP votes in 2017. He’d played all but two games from 2016-2017 and could be counted on as an everyday contributor. Although range wasn’t his greatest asset at second base, there was a howitzer attached to his shoulder and the arm would help to substantially upgrade the defense that Dozier brought to the position for the Twins.
 
We didn’t know that Major League Baseball was going to juice the pill for 2019, but it helped a guy like Schoop to launch dingers at a relatively significant rate. With so many power hitters around him in the lineup however, his skillset became somewhat redundant and the emergence of Luis Arraez made him replaceable. The 23 longballs in just 121 games was plenty respectable, and the .777 OPS checked in as the second highest mark over the course of a full big-league season. At the end of the day though, it was the .304 OBP that likely did him in.
 
The bulk of his 2019 was spent batting in the final three spots of the lineup. Even outside of run production lineup positioning, Schoop became a punchline due to the times in which he would come through. Late and close situations saw him post just a .658 OPS while he owned just a .618 OPS with runners in scoring position and two outs. By leverage, he was at his best (.813 OPS) in the lowest stress scenarios. If you needed a hollow home run it seemed that Schoop became a lock.
 
Having just turned 28 there is plenty of runway ahead for the Curacao native. It obviously won’t be with the Twins, and I’m not entirely sure he’s rebuilt his value on the back of his 2019 exploits. Power at second base isn’t exactly guaranteed, but the sport has also shifted much more towards an on-base production model. It was that skill Minnesota appeared to need most, and ultimately that downfall that led to him being replaced.
 
There’s no reason to categorize the $7.5 million Minnesota handed to Schoop as foolish, but I think we can effectively say it worked out as planned. That’s a bit more than you’d like for a replaceable asset, but given the dollars paid to Arraez it should be considered as a wash. Minnesota’s offense was otherworldly in 2019, and whatever Schoop provided became a relative footnote.
 
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Throw another log on the off-season blueprint fire because here's one more opinion about how the Twins should approach the winter. I believe this game plan is realistic and it would make the 2020 Twins a more complete team than the 2019 Twins. This off-season is all about adding quality pitching (hopefully a lot of it!), and my blueprint does just that.
 
Assume that I was named honorary GM for the winter and let's fast forward to March 2020 to look at what I did before handing the keys back to Falvey and Levine:
 
Major transactions - offense:
1. Non-tendered CJ Cron
2. Signed Mitch Moreland to a 1 year/$7M contract with an option for 2021
3. Signed Brock Holt to a 2 year/$12M contract
4. Signed Alex Avila to a 1 year/$5M contract
 
I gladly moved on from both Jonathan Schoop and Jason Castro. Non-tendering Cron was not an easy decision, but I liked adding Moreland for his defense and left-handed bat. A rotating platoon of Moreland, Marwin Gonzalez and Miguel Sano makes sense at first base. Holt is a versatile player who has played multiple infield and outfield positions and has a lot of winning experience from his days in Boston. I'm not entirely sure that he fits in 2020 but I've long liked him as a player and couldn't say no when he price tag was reasonable. Also, he will replace Gonzalez in 2021 as the Twins' super utility player. Avila is likely just a one-year fill-in at catcher, but his left-handed bat should form a solid offensive platoon with Mitch Garver.
 
The Offense:
C Mitch Garver 575,000
1B Mitch Moreland 7,000,000
2B Luis Arraez 575,000
SS Jorge Polanco 3,830,000
3B Miguel Sano 5,900,000
OF Eddie Rosario 8,900,000
OF Byron Buxton 2,900,000
OF Max Kepler 6,250,000
DH Nelson Cruz 12,000,000
UTIL Marwin Gonzalez 9,000,000
UTIL Brock Holt 6,000,000
C Alex Avila 5,000,000
OF Jake Cave 575,000
IF Ehire Adrianza 1,900,000
Total Position Players 70,405,000
 
Major transactions - pitching:
1. Jake Odorizzi accepted the qualifying offer and signed a 1 year/$17.8M contract
2. Signed Zack Wheeler to a 5 year/$110M contract
3. Traded Trevor Larnach and two minor leaguers to Arizona for Robbie Ray
4. Traded two minor leaguers to Toronto for Ken Giles
 
I watched in horror when Cody Stashak pitched in the sixth inning of a one-run playoff game, and when Randy Dobnak STARTED a playoff game, and vowed that such silliness would never happen again on my watch. The winter started with Odorizzi accepting his qualifying offer, which was a win for both sides in my opinion. I called Kyle Gibson's agent and said that I have no interest in a reunion no matter the contract. I moved quickly and signed Wheeler while other potential suitors were busy talking to Cole and Strasburg. I believe that the Wheeler contract could prove to be a good value to the Twins, as he is still fairly young and may have untapped potential.
 
I read the rumors back in July 2019 and knew that the Twins had been in contact with both Arizona and Toronto about potential trades, so I picked up the phone and re-ignited those conversations. I reluctantly agreed to trade Larnach to Arizona, but I was happy to acquire Ray without giving up any major league players in the trade. I am in win-now mode, and believe that trading a player like Eddie Rosario may actually weaken the 2020 club more than it may strengthen it. The Toronto trade talks began a little frosty, as I chewed out their front office for never calling the Twins back last summer before trading Marcus Stroman to the Mets. But we got past it quickly, as the Blue Jays were eager to shed Giles' salary and receive two low-level minor league prospects in return.
 
The Pitching:
SP Zack Wheeler 22,000,000
SP Jose Berrios 5,400,000
SP Robbie Ray 10,800,000
SP Jake Odorizzi 17,800,000
SP Brusdar Graterol 575,000
RP Ken Giles 8,400,000
RP Taylor Rogers 3,900,000
RP Trevor May 2,100,000
RP Tyler Duffey 1,100,000
RP Zack Littell 575,000
RP Lewis Thorpe 575,000
RP Cody Stashak 575,000
Total Pitchers 73,800,000
 
Other:
Martin Perez buyout 500,000
 
Total Team Payroll 144,705,000
 
Jim Pohlad wasn't thrilled that I pushed the payroll to nearly $145M but I reminded him that the window for winning is wide open in 2020. If my roster meets expectations, the Twins will win the AL Central again and will be positioned for a deep playoff run.

Prior to the 4pm deadline to decide on the qualifying offer presented to Jake Odorizzi by the Minnesota Twins, a decision was made. The 2019 All Star made the choice to return to Wes Johnson and Rocco Badelli’s staff on a one-year pact. This one will be lucrative at $17.8 million, but in the end all sides win.
 
In 2020 Odorizzi will be just 30 years old and is coming off a career year. He had a mechanics breakdown and blister issue mid-season for the Twins but bookended that performance with excellence. He was tied to draft pick compensation in this cycle, and though that would have worked in Minnesota’s favor, it wasn’t going to earn him any favors in the form of a larger paycheck. Odorizzi could have returned to Minnesota on a multi-year deal (or went elsewhere) but instead is banking on himself with time to cash in.
 
The Twins had only Jose Berrios under team control for 2020 among rotation options. Needing to beef up the unit, the front office immediately suggested that they would be targeting impact pitching this offseason. Bringing back an All-Star you’re familiar with is hardly a bad place to start. Knowing that they can also build off this foundation is more a relief than having four uncertainties.
 
I still believe that the Twins need to sign someone better than Berrios and Odorizzi, while acquiring a second arm with a value able to slot in between them. The open market has ample arms that can be paid to top the rotation, and dangling pieces to acquire that 3rd starter makes a whole lot of sense.
 
When the dust settles, we’ll know how this decision worked out for both sides. Odorizzi is hoping to turn a second strong performance into a three or four year deal that would push over $50 million. If he’s able to put up a repeat performance working with coaches he’s grown accustomed to, then there’s no denying the payday will come. Given the spending flexibility Minnesota has, even the large AAV does little to hurt their overall building blueprint for 2020. The player is taking all the risk here, and both sides come up looking rosy.
 
Welcome back to Twins Territory Jake, it’s like you never left.
 
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This time last year, I gave an offseason blueprint that had the Twins winning 100 games in 2019. Commenter tarheeltwinsfan appreciated that, saying "I like your hope-filled optimism." Well, so did the Twins, and they one-upped it by winning 101, beating my overly-optimistic hope by a win.
 
What won the Twins the division in 2019 won't do so in 2020. They have to be considered the favorite no matter what offseason moves they make, no doubt. But, don't forget that their Pythagorean wins were 97, and several of those wins were on the backs of overperformances in the early season from Martin Perez. If you bump the Twins down to 94 wins, and the Indians take one or two of those lost, suddenly they miss the playoffs. Also take note that the Yankees swept the Twins in dominant fashion with superior pitchers attacking the corners and making the Twins swing and miss, while Randy Dobnak, Odorizzi, and relievers could only nibble and pray. So the Twins must improve aggressively if they want to make a good year into a dynasty rather than a fluke. The good news is that the Twins have a clear path to do so.
 
The holes
Almost the entire offense is returning for 2020 with the lone exception of Jonathan Schoop, who becomes a free agent after losing his starting job last July to Luis Arraez. Pitching is a different story, with Magill and Parker already gone and Odorizzi, Gibson, Pineda, and Romo becoming free agents. The Twins thus have a minimum of five holes to fill whether from their minor league rosters, free agency, waiver claims, or trades.
 
He is who we thought he was
Martin Perez is owed $7.5 million on a team option, but the Twins declined it and instead owe him a half million dollar buyout. This was an easy decision as Perez couldn't get the job done in the second half of the year and will now look for a team willing to give him a roster spot for just above the minimum salary.
 
Cutting Cron
C.J. Cron is in nearly the same situation, as he is due to earn around $7.7 million in arbitration. While Cron provided some power and in June seemed to be a great pickup for the Twins, he trailed off and then ended the year underperforming the rest of the Bomba Squad and was effectively out of the lineup whenever Marwin Gonzalez was free to play first base. The Twins are no doubt confident they can replace him for less than he'd get in arbitration, and so I'd expect him to be non-tendered or even waived before that time comes.
 
So that leaves the Twins needing to acquire or promote a starting first baseman, four starting pitchers, and at least three relievers. How should they do it?
 
I've got a fever, and the only prescription is more bombas
The Twins have a hole at the traditionally easiest position to fill. In the minors, they have no obvious options--it would be best to allow Alex Kiriloff to prove that he can hit AAA pitching for at least two months, and Brent Rooker had a poor year in 2019 that did nothing to prove his readiness for the show in 2020. So the Twins should treat first base in 2020 like they did second base in 2019--find a good hitter to fill in till one of their minor leaguers is ready.
 
But I don't want the first-base version of Jonathan Schoop--can they please find a real power hitter? Of course I'd love to get Anthony Rendon to play third and shift Sano to play first base, but after Rendon's heroic World Series win, I'm going to presume that this is not the time to buy-high on Rendon. A poor man's version of that strategy would be to get Josh Donaldson, which might be a bit more affordable. As for plug-in first base sluggers, a lesser option would be Jose Abreu, but does he have anything left in the tank? For the Pohlad's dollar, I think the best deal would likely be the simplest one: the Twins should sign Edwin Encarnacion for $24-28 million over two years and have him play first base for one year and DH the next. Aging hitters are less risky than aging pitchers; they should be willing to take the defensive hit at a position where defense very rarely matters and take Encarnacion's bat just like they did from Nelson Cruz.
 
Time to stop being so Gibby
So the Twins need to replace four departing starters. Dobnak took over as the Twins' third starter after the suspension of Pineda and the decline and fall of both Perez and Gibson, so I'm going to assume Dobnak at least starts the season in the rotation. If he falters, or perhaps even when the inevitable injuries arrive, the Twins have ample swing men and AAA depth at starters 6-9: Graterol, Alcala, Smeltzer, and Thorpe are all hopeful to become impact major league starters, though perhaps not on opening day 2019.
 
So really, if the Twins pick up three quality starters, they can relax about depth after that. The trade possibilities are too vast to enumerate, but it is always tough to predict that a team could ever acquire a mid-rotation starter via trade because there isn't a team in the majors who can spare any quality starter they may have under control.
 
You can't always get what you want
Gerrit Cole is the leading name on the free agent list, but even moreso than Rendon, he is set to demand a very high salary--perhaps a record-breaking contract for a pitcher, which would mean a minimum 7 years, $180 million--though the rumor is that he could command a number that starts with a 2. This could be worthwhile during the Twins' current window of opportunity, but it might be too big a pill to swallow for 2023-2026.
 
Stephen Strasburg was owed $25 million per year for 2020-2023, and he outperformed his doubters in 2019. He opt out of that contract, principally to get an even bigger contract, but also to get his money earlier, as his current contract includes $40M deferred as late as 2030. He won't be worth as much as Cole, so is he perhaps a smaller risk? Could he be had for 5 years, $130 million--or will he command even more to a rich team? The simplest answer here is that the Nationals might be willing to up the offer more than others to have him back, so the Twins might not even have the chance.
 
You just might find, you get what you need
Madison Bumgarner's velocity has dropped too much to be appealing, and his big-name cachet might be more valuable to a big-market team. I think Bumgarner will be grossly overpaid for his declining skills and so I want the Twins to stay away.
 
Zack Wheeler is only 29 and is coming off a great year, though his career in 2018 and earlier was closer to league average. The Mets made him a $17.8 million qualifying offer that he will decline, and so the team that signs him will have to give up a draft pick. The Twins should strike early, even if he demands a five-year contract, and pay him up to or even over $100 million for the privilege. The Twins would have the ace they've lacked since Johan Santana and then become a credible threat to the Astros and Yankees in the American League.
 
Of the top-end pitchers, that leaves Hyun-Jin Ryu. With the Dodgers making rumblings they still want to keep their team salary down, Ryu could hit the market as an excellent pitcher yet only fifth-best of the starters available. If this is the case, the Twins should strike early and sign him for 3 years, $54 million, and have one less thing to worry about. Even if Ryu declines more steeply than hoped, he is still likely to be worth at least half his salary in 2022, and so this is a lesser risk than the other names out there.
 
Finally, they should do what they can this very week to extend Jake Odorizzi. It might be tough to find the room for a long-term deal, though he just might accept his qualifying offer of $17.8 million for a chance to win it all with the Twins in 2020 and then hit the free agent market for another big payday after that.
 
The best options if they can't get three of the top six are Dallas Keuchel, Homer Bailey, Cole Hamels, Tanner Roark, Wade Miley, two-thirds of Michael Pineda, the used husk of Kyle Gibson, and several other less-than-desirable pitchers. The Twins might be better off going with their prospects than any of these options, but there may be some wheat among the chaff, and I'd trust the Twins' scouts to try to find a rich man's Anibal Sanchez in there somewhere.
 
Romo wasn't built in a day, but he can be signed in one
The Twins need at least three new relief pitchers, but hopefully filling the first slot is easy: Sergio Romo arrived in Minnesota and immediately entertained us with an exciting, positive attitude and an even more exciting slider. A modest raise from last year's $2.5 million contract should be enough to lure him back, but if not, I think they'll have to pick up one of the other free agents.
 
Wisle down the wind
The Twins already filled the second slot by claiming Matt Wisler off waivers. Of course, he could be re-waived if the Twins don't like what they see, but I'm going to assume the Twins claimed him to keep him. Reports are that he has a quality slider that the Twins' coaching staff hopes to build around.
 
Time to harvest the crops on the farm
And finally, the Twins have enough pitching depth in the minors to fill the last remaining spots--I'd leave it for the Twins to fill with any of the familiar Hildenberger, Reed, Vasquez, Alcala, or Jovani Moran or Johan Quezada. Also, the best relievers are often failed starters, and so Sean Poppen or even Griffen Jax could become bullpen options when push comes to shove. Just like in 2019, the Twins will likely use 2 spots in the bullpen to shuttle viable options back and forth--that's how 2019's Stashak, Thorpe, and Smeltzer seem like great options to keep in the majors for most of the year in 2020, and surely the Twins can keep turning the crank to get maximum value out of their pitching depth.
 
Of course, the Twins could certainly benefit from signing a free agent reliever besides Romo. I can't imagine they would see it worthwhile to go after Will Smith, Kenley Jansen, Will Harris, Chris Martin, Daniel Hudson, or Brandon Kintzler, but again, they might find one potential diamond in the rough part of this list.
 
Much ado about nothing
Some Twins fans will no doubt want to replace Jason Castro (or even re-sign Castro himself) at backup catcher; I can't help but disagree. As long as they believe Astudillo is a satisfactory backstop, they should commit to playing him two-thirds of the time. I would indeed like the Twins to sign some AAA catching depth somehow, as injuries are likely--but a third catcher is not on my list of the top 28 players I want to focus on. Get anyone you can.
 
The reclamation project
In 2019 the Twins carried Marwin Gonzalez, Ehire Adrianza, and Schoop for the whole year. Even with the additional roster spot, three backup infielders might be a bit too much, as the Twins struggled to fill the outfield after injuries to Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, and Jake Cave overlapped a bit more than desired. The Twins should forgo replacing Schoop and instead find a center fielder who could accept a minor league contract and backup Buxton, thus saving Cave to backup the corner spots.
 
I always like comeback projects--It's too bad that the Twins couldn't have found a way to keep Anibal Sanchez or Lance Lynn in 2019. For this year, perhaps Carlos Gomez would be a nice bench player--this Twins coaching staff and front office surely don't care about his early years here in Minnesota. I also wonder about Austin Jackson--could the Rochester Red Wings be a good team to help him him to get back on the horse?
 
Repeat the success
The Twins' recipe for winning 100 games, thus, is listed below. I've supplied Steamer's 2020 projection, which should be the WAR each player is expected to provide assuming he is like other historical players similar to himself. I then give my optimistic but realistic hope for each player, which is either the same as or higher than their projection. You might immediately argue, "What a homer! You predict many players higher than their projection but none lower?!"
 
I have a reason, and it's not that I'm looking at my favorite team through rose-colored glasses. Instead, it's the fact that the most successful teams usually vastly outperform their projections. In other words, only the luckiest teams win 100 games. If a team plans to be only as good as their projection, they may never project to be among the best--but instead we plan for the best and expect the worst. The 2018 Twins' talent were much better than their near .500 record indicated--but much went wrong and players underperformed. In 2019, we saw the opposite effect; aren't we glad the Twins went for it by acquiring Gonzalez, Cruz, and others, rather than acquiescing to a low projected win total?
 
So if the Twins are to win 100 games again, they have to make big key additions. I'll agree with what you are thinking--they aren't likely to sign both Ryu and Wheeler, or any two of the top six starters, or overpay for Encarnacion. But this gumption is what I'm asking for. Did we think that the Twins could sign all three of Cruz, Schoop and Gonzalez in 2019? They did so without spending the big bucks; now is the time to bump up that payroll just a bit to go for a championship.
 
The salaries two top-tier pitchers will demand are well in the affordable range for the Twins, and perhaps no team in baseball can better afford them. The Twins should should do so if they want to win 100 games again--or at least be the favorite to win the division should they fall short at the 93 wins that my blueprint projects.
 
In 2020, rosters are expected to expand to 26 players, with possible limitations on the number of pitchers allowed; also, MLB is expected to require pitchers to face a minimum of three batters or the end of an inning, which means any "lefty one-out guys" (LOOGYs) will need to do more to earn their keep.
 
So here's the list of my desired 26-man roster for 2019. The heading "*st" refers to Contract status: "C" for long-term contract, "A" for arbitration-eligible, with the ordinal year of eligibility; "P" for pre-arbitration. The minimum salary for 2020 is expected to be about $565K.
 
28 slots are listed here, with the expectation that there will be two players on the injured list at any given time. Although more than 28 players will play for Twins in 2020, it is expected that other players will not contribute significantly to alter the bottom line.

2020 Twins WAR: 2019 2020 proj hope st* 2020 salary (AAV, millions)RF Kepler 4.4 3.5 3.7 C $ 6.3 CF Buxton 2.7 3.2 3.5 A2 $ 2.9SS J. Polanco 4.1 2.8 3.5 C $ 5.2DH Cruz 4.3 2.8 3.0 C $13.03B Sano 2.8 2.9 2.9 A3 $ 5.9C Garver 3.9 1.9 2.5 P3 $ 0.61B Encarnacion 2.5 1.4 2.5 FA $14.02B Arraez 2.1 2.5 2.5 P1 $ 0.6LF Rosario 1.3 2.3 2.3 A2 $ 8.9 CI M. Gonzalez 1.4 1.1 1.3 C $10.5C Astudillo 1.5 1.2 1.2 P1 $ 0.64O Cave/C. Gomez 0.7 0.1 0.7 P2 $ 0.6SS Adrianza 0.6 0.3 0.3 A3 $ 1.9 SP Wheeler 4.7 3.1 4.0 FA $20.0SP Ryu 4.8 3.1 3.2 FA $18.0SP Berrios 4.4 3.0 3.5 A2 $ 5.4SP Odorizzi 4.3 2.5 2.5 FA $17.8SP Dobnak 0.8 1.4 1.4 P1 $ 0.6SP Smeltzer/Graterol 0.5 0.8 0.8 P1 $ 0.6 RP Ta. Rogers 2.1 1.0 1.5 A2 $ 3.9RP Duffey 1.2 0.8 1.1 A1 $ 1.1RP May 0.9 0.6 0.8 A3 $ 2.1RP Stashak 0.5 0.2 0.5 P1 $ 0.6RP Thorpe 0.6 1.7 1.0 P1 $ 0.6RP Romo 0.5 0.2 0.3 FA $ 3.0RP Wisler 0.5 0.1 0.5 A1 $ 1.0RP Littell/Harper 0.6 0.3 0.6 P1 $ 0.6RP Hildenberger/Alcala 0.0 0.0 0.4 P2 $ 0.6 Perez buyout $ 0.5 ===== ====== ====== Totals 44.8 52.0 $146.4 Projected record 93-69 100-62Now that's a roster that should not only win the division, but be a good bet in any postseason series. As a kid, I sang the Twins fight song:
In 2019, it finally came true and the Twins are ready to keep it going. Let's hear it now for the team that came to play!

I just read this really fun article in True West Magazine https://truewestmagazine.com/article/six-guns-sluggers/?mc_cid=1c6674cead&mc_eid=b66323b9da
 
"Two sesquicentennial anniversaries in 2019 will commemorate landmark events in the history of the American West. When gold and silver spikes were gently tapped into place in a ceremonial laurelwood rail tie at Promontory Summit in Utah Territory to symbolize the completion of the Transcontinental Railroad on May 10, 1869, it opened the West as never before. Earlier in the year, the Red Stockings of Cincinnati became the first all-salaried, professional team in the fledgling sport of baseball. Undefeated as the year progressed, the Red Stockings rode these rails in mid-September to introduce professional ball beyond the Mississippi. The West offered opportunity and adventure, attracting people from around the world who flocked to the California gold rush of ’49 and the Comstock silver lode in ’59. Now, in 1869, these professionals came west to demonstrate their wealth of baseball riches to overmatched but eager ball clubs with a hankering to be part of the Red Stockings’ historic season."
 
This was a fun historic article - you might remember I had an earlier Blog that had Wild Bill Hickok in a baseball game and Tom Custer was a good pitcher.

https://twinsdaily.com/blogs/entry/11497-wild-bill-umpires-the-game/
 
It took a long time before baseball moved west in the professional sense. For a long time the West Coast had a minor league team with players like Joe DiMaggio and his brothers making it almost as good as MLB. St Louis was the team of the West for a century.
 
"In 1859, the first organized team on the Pacific Coast, the San Francisco Eagles, was established. The next February, in San Francisco they played to a 33-33 tie with the Red Rovers of Sacramento. In September, the Eagles traveled to Sacramento in a rematch for the state title, emerging victorious 31-17. In a few years, the Eagles organization had grown such that with the overflow they formed a new club, the Pacifics. Both became premier teams among more than a dozen that organized in the Bay Area. The sport was invigorating to watch and spectators might even shoot their six-guns when excited. With gamblers betting on their favorite team, it’s said it was not uncommon to have enthusiastic supporters fire into the air to shake the concentration of batters taking swings or to rattle fielders preparing to catch the ball."
 
https://www.sfomuseum.org/exhibitions/local-nine-san-francisco-seals-baseball-1903-1957 The San Francisco Seals had a very long and successful life in the bay area.
 
After the 1957 season - another pennant for the Seals, they moved to Phoenix and the Dodgers and the Giants began the westward expansion of baseball in MLB.
 
Now you might think this has nothing to do with the Twins, but if you had been around then you would have seen our local cities trying to get these teams to come to us. But - "Millers were top-level affiliates of the Boston Red Sox (1936–38; 1958–60) and New York Giants (1946–57). The Red Sox actually swapped ownership of their top farm club, the San Francisco Seals of the Pacific Coast League, for the Millers in 1957, enabling the Giants to move to San Francisco."
 
The Original St Paul Saints - "The Saints finished first in the American Association nine times, and won the Little World Series in 1924. During this period, the Saints were a farm club of the Chicago White Sox (1936–1942), the Brooklyn Dodgers (1944–1957), and the Los Angeles Dodgers (1958–1960). The Saints played streetcar home and away double headers with their local rivals, the Minneapolis Millers. When the Minnesota Twins came to town in 1961, the Saints became the Omaha Dodgers while the Millers ceased operations."
 
Note both Dodgers and Giants had a connection to the Twin Cities. The Dodgers were going to LA, but the Giants were not sure about SF and played games with the Twin City Press. https://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/17/sports/baseball/the-giants-almost-headed-not-quite-so-far-west.html
"MINNEAPOLIS, June 16 - If not for Walter O'Malley, Willie Mays might be remembered for making a leaping catch 100 yards from a grazing cow.
If not for a few twists of fate, Mays could have an "M" on the cap in his Hall of Fame plaque, and the scrum for Barry Bonds's 73rd home run ball might have occurred in the upper deck of the Metrodome."
 
"According to newspaper and historical accounts, Stoneham discussed moving here with Minneapolis officials as early as 1955, when concern over declining attendance and the decrepit condition of the Polo Grounds prompted him to consider his options. The Giants owned the Class AAA Minneapolis Millers, giving them territorial rights, and Metropolitan Stadium was under construction on 164 acres of farmland in suburban Bloomington in hopes of luring a big-league team."
 
The west won out, but the conversations were strong enough to interest the Griffith family in moving the Original Senators to that Bloomington field and here we are the Twins! And the story of the DC franchise which has had at least three professional teams includes 108 years without winning a series.

The Twins bullpen was mostly great in 2019 as they finished with the third best WAR in baseball, per Fangraphs. They had the best second half reliever WAR and watched Tyler Duffey and Trevor May become legitimate weapons along with the great Taylor Rogers.
 
Starting pitching will be the main focus this offseason, and rightly so. Trade deadline acquisition Sergio Romo is the only impending free agent from the bullpen. One of the other names circling at the deadline was left-hander Jake Diekman. A 32-year-old journeyman, Diekman started his career with the Phillies but found his most success in Arlington. Diekman posted a 3.18 ERA in four seasons with the Rangers, striking out 10.1 per nine and allowing just nine home runs in 124 1/3 innings.
 
The Rangers moved on from Diekman before the deadline in 2018, trading him to Arizona for minor league pitcher Wei-Chieh Huang. Diekman finished the year horribly with the D-Backs, allowing 12 runs in 14 1/3 innings. Diekman entered free agency as a buy-low option and the Royals inked him to a 1-year, $2.75 million contract with a mutual option for 2020.
 
Diekman responded to the show-me contract by going 0-6 with a 4.75 ERA in 41 2/3 innings with Kansas City. Some of that is due to the dumpster fire that is the Royals defense as his FIP was a stronger 3.36. The Royals elected to move him to Oakland before the 2019 deadline for two minor league prospects.
 
Diekman allowed 10 runs in 20 1/3 innings with the A's, walking 16 and striking out 21. Oakland elected not to pick up his option, per Melissa Lockard of the Athletic:
 

 
Now Diekman enters free agency once again as a buy-low option. Diekman made changes in 2019 that should entice the Twins to fill their left-handed reliever void. For one, he ditched his sinker and relied heavily on an elite slider, throwing it 46.1% of the time in 2019:
 


 
As can be seen on the graph, Diekman relied on the slider and four-seam fastball. His average fastball velocity is 95.8 MPH, a number that should be salivating for Minnesota. The two-pitch combo helped generate 12.2 strikeouts per nine, Diekman's most since 2014. His slider generated a 45% whiff rate with an expected .176/.257/.246 (.503) line from opposing hitters. The Twins are accustomed to pitchers with devastating sliders and they seem to target them:
 

 
Walks are clearly Diekman's biggest problem, as he has allowed a whopping 5.0 BB/9 in his career. Minnesota's pitching coach Wes Johnson cut 121 walks from the Twins in 2018, catapulting them from the 7th worst to 6th best in allowing free passes.
 
Considering his recent struggles and age, Diekman figures to get a one or maybe two year deal at best. The Twins have the luxury of taking this risk, and a $4-5 million investment in Diekman makes all the sense in the world. If anyone can tap into the seemingly lost potential, it is the Twins. Go get him Falvine!
 
Please comment what you think.
 
Thanks for reading! Go Twins!

The Minnesota Twins bullpen of 2019 was a roller coaster ride that would rival even the most thrilling attraction at Valley Fair. In this article, we’ll be taking a ride on the 2019 Twins "bullpen coaster" as I go through all the various peaks and valleys that the relief group experienced in 2019.
 
Prior to the start of the season, expectations for the Twins bullpen were certainly a mixed bag following a disappointing 2018 which saw the Twins relievers finish 22nd in the majors with a 4.45 ERA. After Twins fans pleaded with Falvey and Levine all offseason to acquire relief arms, the 33-year old journeyman, Blake Parker, was the only reliever that the front office duo signed. While the Twins knew they had a budding star in Taylor Rogers, it appeared that the Twins would otherwise be leaning heavily on a bunch of unproven question marks the likes of Parker, Trevor Hildenberger, Trevor May, Adalberto Mejia and Fernando Romero. Names like Tyler Duffey and Zack Littell were starting the season in the minor leagues and Cody Stashak was a complete unknown. Fangraphs, however, was more bullish than most on the Twins bullpen, ranking the unit 11th in the majors in their pre-season power rankings.
 


 
Peak #1: Hot start
 
Just like the rest of the Twins ballclub, the bullpen exceeded any and all expectations to kick off the 2019 season. The bullpen coaster reached its first peak of the year, though, on May 26 when the Twins shut out the Chicago White Sox, 7-0. On this day, the Twins bullpen recorded 3.2 scoreless innings from Magill, May, Rogers and Duffey to push the Twins to 20 games over .500 with a 36-16 record. Through this point in the season the Twins were seventh in the American League in ERA at 4.07 and fifth in the American league in FIP at 3.89. This great performance was thanks in large part to the four relievers who pitched in the May 26 shut out who had to this point posted ERAs of 1.54 (Magill), 3.79/3.79 (May), 1.31 (Rogers) and 2.63 (Duffey).
 


 
Valley #1: The Yankee Debacle
 
The Bullpen stayed hot through the month of June, but as the calendar flipped from June to July our bullpen coaster began it’s steep decline. In a period of 17 games from July 1 - July 23 the Twins relievers posted an ERA/FIP of 5.32/4.31 with a -1.61 WPA during that time. During this same stretch, three Twins relievers were DFA’d due to poor performance - the previously mentioned Matt Magill, Adalberto Mejia, and Mike Morin. The culmination of poor bullpen performance, and the first valley on our bullpen coaster, was the 14-12 heartbreaking loss to the Yankees on July 23. In a game that featured 16 runs, 35 hits, and 6 bombas, the stats that will stick with Twins fans from this game are the two blown saves and nine earned runs from the bullpen. Blake Parker surrendered four runs to turn a 9-5 lead to a 10-9 deficit. Then, after a heroic Sano bomba, Taylor Rogers surrendered two runs to turn a 11-10 lead to a 12-11 deficit. Finally, after Polanco tied the game to force extra innings, Kohl Stewart surrendered two runs to turn a 12-12 tie game to a demoralizing 14-12 loss. Following the game, the Twins DFA’d their fourth reliever in 11 days by letting Blake Parker go and all of a sudden the Twins bullpen found themselves at rock bottom.
 


 
Peak #2: The Trade Deadline
 
The silver lining to the July decline and the Yankee debacle was that it forced the front office to realize that acquiring relief arms at the deadline was no longer a luxury, but a necessity. The voices clamoring for bullpen help were getting louder, and lo and behold the front office acted. First by acquiring the 36-year old, right handed reliever, Sergio Romo. In Romo the Twins acquired a proven winner with a nasty slider that killed right handed hitters. The general feeling, though, was that the Romo acquisition wasn’t enough and we needed more arms. Then, in the 11th hour of the trade deadline, news broke that the Twins acquired veteran reliever, Sam Dyson, and things were looking up for this bullpen. Dyson was arguably the best arm that was moved at the deadline and filled the missing setup man role for the Bomba Squad. Falvey and Levine got us the help we needed, we were primed for a resurgent second half of the season, and the bullpen coaster reached its final peak. Or so we thought...
 


 
Valley #2: Damaged Goods
 
While the Romo acquisition was looking like a slam dunk for the Twins, the Dyson experiment was not quite looking the same. In his first appearance with the Twins on August 3rd, Dyson didn’t record a single out, allowed 3 runs, and posted a -0.46 WPA. The following day, after a second straight shaky performance, Dyson was placed on the injured list with bicep tendonitis in what turned out to be a chronic issue that he had been experiencing since before coming to Minnesota (AND DIDN’T TELL ANYONE?!). At this point Twins fans across Minnesota feared that Dyson was damaged goods, and finally on September 26 their fears were realized when Dyson was shut down for good. What was the final piece to the Twins bullpen turned out to be a net-negative and Minnesota was once again stuck in a valley, needing guys from within the organization to hold on for dear life as they fought for the AL Central crown.
 


 
Peak #3: Late Season Resurgence
 
The Twins needed the current crop of arms in the organization to step up in Dyson’s absence, and step up they did. The group that got it done for the Twins in August and September was a mix of guys who contributed throughout the year (Duffey, Rogers and May) along with a group of kids who played far above their age and expectations (Littell, Stashak and Graterol). The bullpen coaster peaked, though, on September 14 when the Twins played a bullpen game to complete a double header sweep of the Indians and all but seal up the AL Central. After 3.2 mediocre innings from Lewis Thorpe, the Twins blanked the Indians for the final 5.1 innings thanks to scoreless outings from Stashak, Graterol and May. Overall, in August and September the Twins bullpen posted a 3.51 FIP, best in the American League. The unit that Twins fans thought would cost them the division ended up winning them the division in a bullpen game. Pretty cool.
 
 


 
Valley #3: October Disappointment
 
Heading into the Playoffs, the Twins had a plethora of question marks. They had just two viable starting pitchers, Arraez’s ankle was a question mark, Kepler hadn’t played in weeks, the list goes on and on. What Twins fans were confident in, though, was our group of bullpen arms. The same group that carried the team through August and September seemed primed to carry them through October. The narrative flipped quickly, though, when Baldelli brought in Zack Littell to start the fifth inning of game one. Littell clearly was not up to the moment as he faced three batters, while allowing two runs. The next inning, Baldelli brought in Cody Stashak who allowed home runs to LeMahieu and Gardner to seal a game one loss. Game two of the ALDS was even worse for the Twins bullpen thanks mostly in part to Tyler Duffey serving up a grand slam to Gregorius, all but ending the game (and series) before it even started. All in all, the Twins bullpen posted a 7.56 ERA in 25 innings and, unfortunately, the bullpen coaster ended the 2019 campaign in a valley.
 
You can say a lot of different things about the 2019 season for the Minnesota Twins bullpen, but you can’t say that it was boring. As you can see, the season was truly a roller coaster ride unlike any that I can remember. Although we ended 2019 in a valley, I look forward to the 2020 group climbing up the chain and reaching new peaks.

If the Minnesota Twins are going to put a focus on adding impact pitching this offseason, the reality is they’ll need to venture outside of free agency to accomplish their goals. Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg represent commodities rarely seen on the open market, and they both could be called home to California. I definitely am in on making Zack Wheeler an offer he can’t turn down, but things get messy from there. With prospect capital and some expendable big leaguers, the time to swing a deal appears ideal as well.
 
There’s little reason for any team to part with their best pitcher regardless of current situation. Luis Castillo is an absolute stud in Cincinnati, but the Reds just made a move to get Trevor Bauer last season. Instead of targeting the slam dunk, Minnesota needs to go and find their version of Cole or Justin Verlander or follow the White Sox footsteps in acquiring a guy like Lucas Giolito. All those arms are among the best in the game, but that same definition couldn’t be applied when they switched teams.
 
So, where do the Twins turn their focus?
 
Colorado Rockies- Jon Gray or German Marquez
 
Under team control for two more seasons, Gray was the third overall pick in the 2013 draft. He has sandwiched two strong seasons around a clunker over the course of the last three. The strikeouts are there, and so too is the velocity. Walks are a bit problematic, and the longball has hurt him while playing at Coors Field. Get him to Target Field and let Wes Johnson work some magic.
 
A teammate of Gray, German Marquez is also very intriguing. He’s younger, under team control for a year longer, and arguably has the better profile. Another strikeout arm, who possesses strong command, has been bit heavily by the longball in Colorado. Despite the 4.76 ERA in 2019, Marquez owned a 3.54 xFIP which followed up a 3.10 mark the year prior. He was my dark horse Cy Young pick this season, and he absolutely looked the part for stretches.
 
Pittsburgh Pirates- Joe Musgrove
 
Another former first round pick, Musgrove would be on his third team if dealt, but he too is not a free agent until 2023. He’s never posted a sub 4.00 ERA and the K/9 has never entered 9.0 territory. He doesn’t issue many walks, is moderate with the home run, and could be just a few tweaks from the next step. His hard-hit rate spiked to a career worst 37% this season, but he’s never generated more whiffs. If the Twins believe in their pitching infrastructure, here’s another arm they could salivate about working with.
 
Detroit Tigers- Matthew Boyd
 
The end result couldn’t be further from where he was at the midway point, but Boyd’s final 11.6 K/9 is nasty. He has yet to put it together over the course of a full season, but 2019 was definitely the closest he’s been, and the 3.88 xFIP tells a fairer story. You may pay a premium dealing within the division, but Detroit isn’t going to be good before Boyd hits free agency in 2023. He was dangled at the deadline, and the winter may provide more opportunity.
 
Atlanta Braves- Max Fried or Mike Foltynewicz
 
Brian Snitker has his ace in the form of Mike Soroka. This team is going to be good for a while, but they also have some very real holes to fill. Fried would have a massive price tag being under team control through 2024, but his first full season as a starter went well. The 4.02 ERA was backed by a 3.72 FIP and 3.32 xFIP. He has strikeout stuff and was able to take a big step forward in the command department.
 
Having been demoted to Triple-A, and roughed up in his final Postseason appearance, Mike Foltynewicz may benefit from a change of scenery. After generating Cy Young votes a season ago, he put up a 4.54 ERA in 2019. After heading to the farm with a 6.37 mark through June, Folty returned to the tune of a 2.65 ERA across his final 10 starts. If there’s an opportunity to take advantage here, Minnesota would be wise to do so.
 
Arizona Diamondbacks- Robbie Ray
 
Another guy that was talked about heavily during the deadline, Ray is entering the final year of arbitration eligibility. He’s posted a 12.0 K/9 or better for the past three seasons, and while durability concerns persist, he’s electric while on the bump. The walk and home run rates aren’t pretty, but given the length of his contract, he could also have one of the lower acquisition costs across moveable assets. This Twins front office is also familiar with Arizona having swung the Eduardo Escobar deal a couple of seasons ago.
 
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Part of what makes baseball such a special sport is that it, more than any other sport, is almost completely driven by numbers. Numbers will teach us who are the superstars of our sport and will expose players who are not. Because of this, it only seems fitting for my second blog post on Twins Daily to take a look back on the 2019 season and choose one number for each Minnesota Twins hitter that I think best encapsulates the season for that player. The players discussed in this post were the top 10 team leaders in plate appearances this season.
 
 
1. Jorge Polanco
Number: 153
 
GAMES PLAYED. In a Minnesota Twins season ravaged with injuries where the Twins saw 5 of their top 6 batters in fWAR spend time on the injured list, Polanco was the one constant in the Twins lineup. Polanco played in 94% of Twins games this season which actually undersells his availability as 2 of his 9 games on the bench came in the final week of the season when the Central had already been wrapped up. In a season where Polanco was an AL All-Star starter and a team leader in many batting statistics (R, H, 2B, 3B) it was difficult to not assign a hitting statistic as Polanco’s number, but as the old adage goes, “the best ability is availability” and Polanco’s availability was the most significant contribution to the Twins this season.
 
2. Max Kepler
Number: .880
 
OPS VS. LEFT HANDED PITCHING. Prior to this season, Max Kepler struggled mightily against left-handed pitchers. From his MLB debut through the end of last season, Max had posted a career .605 OPS versus left handed pitchers, well below league average. He performed so poorly versus southpaws that there was much talk through his early development that he might be limited to a platoon-type role with the Twins. This year, though, Kepler turned it all around and posted a well-above average .880 OPS versus lefties, even better than his excellent .845 OPS versus righties. Last offseason, Kepler signed an extremely team-friendly 5-year, $35M contract. If he continues to mash lefties the way he did in 2019 that contract will only continue to look better and better.
 
3. Eddie Rosario
Number: 3.51
 
PITCHES PER PLATE APPEARANCE. This is the first number on this list that should be taken negatively. While Eddie Rosario posted a career high in R, HR and RBI this season, what I will remember most from Rosario’s 2019 season is his impatience at the plate. A huge gripe among Twins’ faithful this season was Baldelli’s stubbornness with keeping Rosario in the cleanup spot all season. It was maddening to have Kepler, Polanco and Cruz work the opposing pitcher into 7 or 8 pitch ABs and mount a rally only to have Rosie bail the pitcher out with a pop out on the first pitch of the at bat. The 3.51 P/PA illustrates this feeling perfectly as he finished dead last on the club in this statistic.
 
4. Nelson Cruz
Number: 1.031
 
OPS. This was by far the easiest number for me to choose in this exercise. Anytime a player finishes with an OPS greater than 1, you know they had a special season. Not only did Cruz finish with the 2nd highest OPS in the American league this season, he finished with the 4th highest OPS EVER for a 38-year-old baseball player (behind Barry Bonds, Ted Williams and Ty Cobb). Cruz was an unbelievable addition to this Minnesota Twins ball club. Most times when a team signs a 38 year old, they bring him in to be a veteran presence and a mentor in a young clubhouse. While Cruz was a great mentor and a fan-favorite, he was brought in to mash and he indeed mashed in 2019.
 
5. C.J. Cron
Number: .700
 
OPS AFTER JULY 6 THUMB INJURY. C.J. Cron, more than any other Twins player this season, had a Jekyll and Hyde season. Unfortunately for Cron, the Hyde to his Jekyll was completely injury related. Prior to July 6, C.J. was having a very solid season for the Twins as evidenced by his .821 OPS in 331 plate appearances. After management’s bungling of his thumb injury, though, Cron’s play suffered significantly as he saw his OPS dip 121 points and his K% increase from 19.3% to 25.6%. Hindsight is always 20/20, as they say, but I would love to see how Cron’s 2019 season would have played out if Baldelli & Crew would have allowed Cron’s thumb to heal completely instead of rushing him back into the lineup as they did.
 
6. Jonathan Schoop
Number: .000/.000/.000
 
BATTING WITH BASES LOADED. There was a lot of talk this season about how poorly the Twins performed in bases loaded situations, and rightly so. While the Twins were second in baseball this season with a .832 overall OPS, they managed to wind up 28th in baseball with a .568 OPS with the bases loaded. Nobody embodied this struggle with bases loaded better than Jonathan Schoop who ended the season with a goose egg in AVG, OBP and SLG% this season with the bases loaded in 8 trips to the plate. Of all the wild things that happened this Twins season, their complete ineptitude with the bases loaded tops the list for me, and Jonathan Schoop is the poster boy for it.
 
7. Marwin Gonzalez
Number: 6
 
NUMBER OF FIELDING POSITIONS PLAYED. When Marwin Gonzalez signed with the Twins on February 22, Twins fans were excited to bring in a good player who has played in pressure games on the biggest stage. What excited Twins fans most, though, was the versatility that Gonzalez would bring to the club, and we saw that play out all season. With so many injuries popping up throughout the year, Gonzalez’ ability to play anywhere on the diamond allowed the team to continue to fill in a potent lineup even without its biggest stars for much of the year. Gonzalez was able to fill in for Sano at third base for a month to start the season, fill in for Cron when he was hampered with his thumb injury, and ended the season playing in the corner outfield when Buxton’s shoulder injury forced Kepler into CF. Marwin certainly didn’t have his strongest hitting season and suffered his fair share of injuries throughout the year, but his ability to fill in across the diamond and in the outfield covered up a lot of holes and made Rocco Baldelli’s job a heck of a lot easier filling out his lineup card.
 
8. Miguel Sano
Number: .994
 
OPS AFTER JUNE 27. On June 26, the Twins suffered a 5-2 loss at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays in 18 innings. The bigger story that day, though, was Miguel Sano going 0-for-7 with 3 strikeouts. It was his second 0-for-7 performance in the last 10 days and brought his season batting totals down to .195/.278/.761. At this point, much of Twins twitter was clamoring for the Twins to send Sano down or even outright cut him. What Twins fans didn’t know, though, was that Sano was going through a complete swing transformation with hitting coach, James Rowson, and literally learning a completely new swing on the fly. Well, Rowson’s coaching and Sano’s hard work paid off in a big, big way as Sano posted a .271/.376/.618 line with a .994 OPS beginning the day after his 0-for-7 Tampa Bay performance through the end of the season. Needless to say, there’s not much clamoring from Twins Twitter for Sano to be cut anymore.
 
9. Luis Arraez
Number: 22
 
AGE. There are so many numbers that you could come up with for Arraez’s 2019 season and I wouldn’t blame for you picking any of them. The .334 average, the .399 OBP, the 29 (!!!) strikeouts, Arraez had a truly special season. The number that I settled on for “La Regadera”, though, was his age of 22. The Twins were able to generate an everyday second baseman and leadoff hitter from a rookie and with the way he has put up excellent numbers at every level of baseball in which he has played, there is no reason to believe that his 2019 season was any sort of mirage. Arraez’s 2019 season would have been considered incredible from a 32 year old, the fact that he put up the numbers he did at 22 years old should excite Twins everywhere.
 
10. Mitch Garver
Number: .995
 
OPS. It’s nice when you get to end an article like this with a player who had one of the greatest seasons of all time by a catcher and posted numbers that will blow away even the casual baseball fan. The number that encapsulates Garver’s 2019 season the most for me is his .995 OPS. This not only led all catchers this season (min. 350 PAs), but placed him 17th all-time in OPS for a catcher in a season (min. 350 PAs). Health certainly slowed down the end of Garver’s 2019 season, and unfortunately Garver wasn’t able to showcase his skills in front of a national audience in the postseason, but if Garver continues to hit the way he did this season he will become a household name in no time. Not bad for a guy who just finished his second full season in the majors.
 
 
What makes this list fun is that there are many different numbers that could be chosen for each hitter. I would love to hear in the comments what numbers you would have selected for the players I highlighted.

Why am I seeing shots at Eddie Rosario all over TD? No, he is not our best player, but he is a good player. He gets 1.6 WAR this year according to Baseball Reference. He had a line of .276 /.300/.500/.800 this year and in the little aside on the MVP for this year he sounds like he should be LVP. Last year he was .288/.323/.479/.803 and the same site named him MVP. Now we want to trade him for a broken bat and one of the regular season rabbit balls. What is going on.
 
He is not HOF, but he is good. Who will take his place? Who will hit 32HRs and 109 RBIs if he is gone? Can we guarantee Larnach or Kiriloff are ready to do it? I hate having to be the one to speak up for Eddie, but someone has to question the madness.
 
Here are some highlights - go ahead 3-run home run https://www.mlb.com/video/eddie-rosario-homers-21-on-a-fly-ball-to-right-center-field-luis-arraez-scores-m
 
Astudillo and Rosario lead win
 
Rosario 4 hit game https://www.mlb.com/video/rosario-homers-in-4-hit-game
 
Garver and Rosario lead win
 
Home Run 31 https://www.mlb.com/video/eddie-rosario-homers-31-on-a-fly-ball-to-right-center-field
 
No he is not great - but he is good and if we choose to trade him it should not be because we want to get rid of him, but because we get a player who can do even more to help us win in the post season.

In the Academy Award-winning classic, The Shawshank Redemption, Morgan Freeman’s character famously said, “Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane”. While Morgan Freeman was talking about hope in reference to prison life, I related with this quote so much in reference to the Minnesota Twins.
 
As I navigated my way through the Target Field concourse and exited through Gate 34 Monday night, I was heartbroken. My favorite baseball team managed to break my heart again. Surely, you’ve heard all of the stats by now – 16 straight playoff losses, 13 straight to the Yankees, 4 straight sweeps, etc., etc., etc. For some reason, though, this playoff exit hurt more than any other for me. No, there weren’t any Joe Nathan blown saves or Phil Cuzzi missed calls, or Mark Teixeira walk-off homers, but this playoff exit hurt me for a different reason. I had hope.
 
In prior seasons, I had always been a classic Minnesota sports pessimist. I would prevent myself from having any sense of hopefulness so that when the Twins inevitably lost in soul-crushing fashion, I wouldn’t get hurt as badly. Sure enough, year after year my pessimistic expectations proved correct and my heart was spared.
 
This year, though, the team felt different. And I allowed myself to have hope. I don’t know if it was the 40-18 start, the bombas, the rally squirrel or what, but this year I allowed myself to completely buy in and be a part of something exciting. I truly could not get enough of this team all season. I couldn’t read enough articles, listen to enough podcasts, or watch enough innings of ball. I lived and died on each and every pitch and it was exhilarating. Until October came and the Yankees knocked us out of the playoffs again. It sucked, and it hurt so bad this time. More than ever before. But you know what? It was so worth it. I’ve never had so much fun watching a Twins team and these 6 months of baseball have been so memorable that I would trade the excitement from this season for the eventual playoff heartbreak and misery every time.
 
At the end of The Shawshank Redemption, Morgan Freeman receives a letter from Tim Robbins’ character that concludes with the line, “Hope is a good thing. Maybe the best of things. And no good thing ever dies”. This Twins season taught me that, indeed, hope is the best of things and that my memories from this Twins season will never die.
 
Here’s to a 2020 season full of hope.

With the band-aid now being ripped off and the offseason underway for the Minnesota Twins, no time will be wasted when considering how to reload for the 2020 Major League Baseball season. Rocco Baldelli’s club isn’t going to be an underdog going into the new year, and they should have plenty of momentum built towards a second straight AL Central Division title. When considering who may be on the way out, Derek Falvey has more than a handful of decisions to make.
 
There’s a very strong group of players that lay the foundation for the Twins core, but we’ve seen where deficiencies may lie, and opportunities exist. With a handful of guys set to take their talents elsewhere, but choice or designation, it will be on the collective decisions made by Minnesota to best position the roster for success. Not every guy with the ability to return should, and it will be in those difficult discussions that the skeleton of the roster is constructed.
 
Looking at each situation individually, here is what I’d both suggest and think that the Twins will do.
 
Nelson Cruz: $12MM option in 2020
 
This picked up today (October 9) and I’d imagine the front office couldn’t have ever been more excited to spend such a sum.
 

Jake Odorizz: Free Agent
 
After coaching him to a career season and a debut in the All-Star game, it would make plenty of sense for the Twins to retain his services. A qualifying offer somewhere around $18.5MM could be doled out, but that tends to lean more on draft pick compensation should the player decide to leave. Instead I’d think that Minnesota should make him a long-term part of their rotation and offer him something like $45MM over the next three years.
 
Kyle Gibson: Free Agent
 
The former 2009 1st round draft pick will very likely be in another organization for the first time in his career. At 32-years-old it’s the end of an era and will be very different for all parties involved. Dealing with health issues all season didn’t do any favors to Gibson’s performance although he did set a new career best strikeout rate. Unfortunately, a rotation that needs to improve substantially just won’t have room.
 
Jason Castro- Free Agent
 
Wrapping up the three year deal he signed with the Twins, Castro’s free agency hits at the same time Mitch Garver has emerged. Jason Caught a career low 79 games in a split opportunity situation this year, but he posted his highest OPS since 2013. Garver should see something closer to 80% of the starts in 2020, but a veteran backup makes a ton of sense. The Twins could ask Jason what his thoughts are on a part time spot, or they could find someone or a similar ilk on the open market. My hunch is that his time here is done.
 
Jonathan Schoop- Free Agent
 
A one-year deal following a down season gave Schoop the opportunity to bounce back. He did that even while leaving some to be desired. His .777 OPS was nearly .100 points higher than 2018 but Luis Arraez emerged and took over his starting role. At 28 Schoop should still have a decent market at a down position, and even if his bat isn’t what it was in 2017, his arm keeps him significantly above average at the position. Good find for someone, but not going to be back in Minnesota.
 
C.J. Cron- Final Year Arbitration
 
After making just south of $5MM in 2019 Cron is looking at an increase near $6-8MM in 2020. He certainly didn’t finish the year the way he started, but a mangled thumb gave him issues since July. Cron will be only 30 years old and looked the part of a very strong contributor. It doesn’t make a ton of sense to move Miguel Sano to 1B and taking over as a primary DH for Nelson Cruz down the line seems a more logical step anyways. The market isn’t flush with options, and Cron can be had in his final arbitration year as he paves the way for Brent Rooker or Alex Kirilloff to take over. It’s not a guarantee, but I’d expect him back.
 
Martin Perez- $7.5MM Team Option
 
There’s no way the Twins are paying Perez nearly double what he made for them this season. Despite a strong start he was a disaster down the stretch and that led to more rotation questions than they hoped to handle. It would make some sense to bring him back at a lesser figure on a one-year pact that can be supplanted by developing arms on the farm. I don’t think the Twins will (or should) prioritize Perez, but he could be a factor depending on how the rest of the starting rotation is addressed.
 
Sam Dyson- Final Year Arbitration
 
At the deadline Minnesota added the best arm that was moved in the Giants Dyson. Unfortunately, he came with unannounced red flags and provided less than zero value in his time here. Now having undergone shoulder surgery, Minnesota will likely want no part of his 2020 situation. It’s too bad for the Twins, and at worst a bad look for Dyson. The Giants claim they didn’t know about an injury, and Sam suggests he’d been pitching through it for years. Good riddance to this one, and hopefully some compensation can be recouped through the league.
 
Sergio Romo- Free Agent
 
Entering his age 37 season Romo is no longer a spring chicken. Despite his weird knee tendencies, he’s also been a pretty strong beacon of health. Effective once again this season, the Twins should covet his presence in the clubhouse next year. Romo has a great personality and brought a level of excitement to the mound. There’s significant strikeout stuff on the back of a sweeping slider, and fortifying the relief corps a bit further this winter would be ideal.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Wondering what fans at Game Three thought of the nightclub atmosphere at the game last night. I thought having a DJ playing "sick beats" and loud, thumping bass for four hours was really grating... but I am an old soul.
 
Last season I really enjoyed my trip to Wrigley to see the Twins play. The PA guy wasn't shouting, the music wasn't blaring and the fans didn't need their hands held the entire game to know if/when to MAKE NOISE.
 
Personally, I think a DJ/pump-up music guy is cool for the pregame but holy cow did that get old after a while last night.
 
Again, maybe I'm just old so I am wondering what others thought.

Yeah that's gonna be a no from me dog. They don't pop at all, you gotta go with the white Hankies!
 

 
EDIT: Apparently, according to TC white hankies have been banned since 1991!? Am I crazy or did the 2000's Twins also have white hankies?!
 

Soon enough the 2019 Twins Daily Twins Awards will be published. I was excited to be part of the balloting process and wanted to release by ballot with quick explanations behind my decisions.
 
Rookie of Year:
1. Arraez
2. Littell
3. Harper
 
I'll be shocked if Arraez isn't the unanimous first place vote. Littell definitely made his case, especially late, but Arraez was the spark plug in one of the best offenses in The League. The fact that Ryne Harper, who actually did okay, got my 3rd place vote shows how little the Twins relied on rookies this year.
 
Most Improved:
1. Garver
2. Polanco
3. Max Kepler
 
In my opinion, this is a toss up for the three above. You could easily add Duffey to the mix here too. You'll see this reflected in my MVP voting but I was a catcher growing up and believe it's the most important position on the field, so Garver gets my vote. Kepler showed signs last year of big improvements, so I had Polanco over him.
 
Pitcher of the Year:
1. Rogers
2. Duffey
3. May
4. Pineda
 
Man, this was tough but throughout the year Rogers was the most consistent pitcher, and no I'm not just talking out of the bullpen. Duffey and May were two of the best relievers in baseball when it mattered most but if it wasn't for his suspension, Pineda probably would have been at number two for me.
 
Most Valuable Player:
1. Garver
2. Kepler
3. Polanco
4. Cruz
5. Sano
6. Rogers
 
Did I tell you have I a bias towards catchers? Honestly, my 1-4 could have been in any order but ultimately landed with Garver on top for reasons previously mentioned. Kepler over Polanco and Cruz because of the the defense he added and Polanco over Cruz for his defensive contributions although he had some really tough stretches this year. Sano would have been higher for me, probably #2 or #3, but just missed too many games at the beginning of the season. Rogers makes the list but that could have been recency bias as Eddie was in the midst of an ugly month of September. In general, I find it hard to give an MVP vote to a player who plays in so few games compared to offensive players.
 
Would love to hear what your ballot would look like and what you think of mine!

Division champions
 
I know we're all excited about the playoffs, but let's take a minute to appreciate the Twins' excellent regular season just concluded.
2016 2017 2018 2019 changeActual wins 59 85 78 101 +23Pythag wins 66 83 77 97 +20
The Twins had their second-best season ever, in terms of their record. Of course, the American league is much more stratified than ever, there being five teams with 95 losses or more, and the Tigers with 113, thus there are much more wins to be had for the top teams. The Twins came up just behind the Astros, Yankees, and Dodgers in the standings, while spending less on salary by a wide margin. Very impressive!
 
So where did the Twins' actual improvement come from? Eddie Rosario coined the term that the Twins marketing department ran with: Las Bombas! The Twins exploded to have the best offense in the game, not to mention they set the all-time total home run record, with 307 for the season. That wasn't nearly enough by itself to bring the Twins to 101 wins; they needed solid improvements from both their rotation and their relievers. Finally, most of these improvements came in a way that you probably could not have predicted: baseball is a funny game, and I am continually surprised at how much
. 2016 2017 2018 2019 changeLuck (pythag) -7 +2 +1 +4 +3 Hitters WAR 17.0 28.7 15.2 31.4 +16.2 Pitchers WAR 1.8 7.0 12.3 23.9 +11.6
I'll break down the hitters by WAR (technically fWAR, or FanGraph's WAR), focusing on the players that mattered most.
 
As a reminder, WAR is the best way to boil down any player's performance (from hitting, pitching, fielding, and baserunning) into one overall number. It is a "performance" stat that doesn't care about situations, not a situation-dependent "outcomes" stat (like WPA) or a more predictive "fundamentals" stat (like xWOBA or xFIP). That is, it tells you the overall contribution of a player that can be expected from that player's performance. This is measured in the number of fractional wins that player was better than a replacement-level player at his position. There's some good theory as to what is "replacement" level, but the closest the Twins have this year is C.J. Cron at 0.3 WAR--an okay hitter, but not that good compared to other first basemen. Any team could hope to find a first baseman on waivers or in their minor leagues almost as good as the 2019 version of C.J. Cron.
 
I'll list last year's players who have been replaced for comparison's sake, as well.
WAR 2018 2019 Change15 hitters 14.6 31.3 +16.7 RF Kepler 2.6 4.4 +1.8DH Morrison=>Cruz -0.7 4.3 +5.0SS Polanco 1.3 4.1 +2.8C Garver 1.3 3.9 +2.63B Sano 0.0 2.8 +2.8CF Buxton -0.4 2.7 +3.12B Dozier=>Arraez 1.0 2.1 +1.1LF Rosario 3.4 1.3 -2.11B Mauer=>Cron 1.0 0.3 -0.7 C Castro -0.2 1.5 +1.3CI Escobar=>Gonzalez 2.4 1.4 -1.02B Forsythe=>Schoop 0.4 1.4 +1.04O Cave 1.3 0.7 -0.6SS Adrianza 0.5 0.6 +0.1UT Grossman=>Astudillo 0.7 -0.2 -0.9
Take a moment to enjoy the contents of that rightmost column, and reflect on all the Twins games you watched and boxscores you read that led to that column. The Twins offense was better nearly everywhere, an improvement in one season that few teams are able to make in one year.
 
Moves that worked
 
Sprechen sie Baseball?
Four years ago, Max Kepler looked like a promising young player. A B-level prospect, he had up and down years in the minors before becoming the Twins' everyday right fielder in 2016. He put up hitting numbers that were just below average and was highly reliable in the field. Three years of nearly identical numbers (OPS+ of 96 each year) made us think that Kepler was a solid contributor but not a difference-maker. But something happened--whether it was tweaks by Kepler to change his launch angle a bit, mentorship from James Rowson, or a combination of several other things, Kepler doubled his home run rate while maintaining his plate discipline. He deserved to make the all-star team (there's always next year, though). Kepler is, at least in 2019, the best player on the team.
 

(GIFs from PitcherList, who borrowed them from MLB-owned media.)
 
On a Cruz every night
Whereas Kepler had a breakout year that still hasn't had enough attention, the Twins signed Nelson Cruz to do what he's always done: hit the ball hard over and over again. No doubt the Twins were hoping for merely a slight decline in his productivity coming off a year with 37 home runs and a 9% walk rate. Instead, Cruz kicked it up a notch, hitting 41 bombas and drawing walks at an 11% rate, increasing his season OPS+ from 134 to 166. While Kepler is the Twins' best player, I'd peg Cruz as their most valuable, as the Twins need to play all their best players in the field and have no other good option at DH. Year over year, the Twins improved by no less then 5 wins at DH position alone--simply put, without Cruz the Twins probably win "only" 97 games and maybe could have been caught by the Indians in the division.
 
Signing Schoop but pivoting to Arraez
The Twins signed Jonathan Schoop to replace Dozier at second base, and he did well in April and May, with an OPS+ well over 100. But the Twins knew they were getting a somewhat inconsistent player, and Schoop began to falter in June. Luis Arraez, meanwhile was hitting .344 with a high walk rate in AAA, which you can't let languish there. The Twins called him as fill-in in May and then permanently in June, when he quickly became an everyday palyer and then the starting second baseman, posting a 123 OPS+ and hitting .334. Schoop still got some playing time and actually improved in the second half, which is fortunate as the Twins need Schoop with Arraez hurt in the playoffs.
 
Not panicking about 2018 underachievers
In 2018, everything that could have gone wrong with the Twins offense did. Of they players that today remain from that team, in 2018 Sano had a terribly ineffective year, Buxton had lots of problems whenever he was actually playing, Polanco was good but not great in his half-season of work, and Castro was a poor hitter but a good catcher--but all these players had the potential for much more, and the Twins wisely kept all four around for the bomba squad to-be even as some Twins fans were ready to trade away Sano for peanuts and cut Castro. Instead, Sano finally showed that he is a very good hitter after all and not Delmon Young 2.0, Castro embraced increased rest to have the second-best hitting season of his career, Polanco's breakout was almost as strong as Kepler's, and much-injured Buxton hit very well in limited time. Collectively, these four players improved by eight wins. More importantly, three of the four hitters figure into the Twins' plans for years to come.
 
Giving rest to catchers
There is no longer any doubt that Mitch Garver is a top-notch hitter as well as a average-fielding catcher. Such a player is supremely valuable, but the Twins wisely held on to Jason Castro. These two flipped back-and-forth all year, enabling them both to get the rest they need at baseball's most taxing everyday position. With sporadic starts from Willians Astudillo, the catching position become one of the Twins' biggest strengths. The Twins have likely learned enough about these players to let Castro go in free agency and trust Astudillo to back up Garver, but that is a possible change for 2020. This year, keeping Castro has paid off handsomely.
 
Lifting the launch angle
We now know fairly certainly that "The most valuable batted balls are hit between 19° and 26°." However, knowing this fact is a far different thing than coaching players who are good at hitting the ball hard and flat to tweak their swing. A player can too readily change their launch angle but lose exit velocity--in short, a higher launch angle is only good if they continue to hit the ball hard at that higher angle. The five Twins hitters from last year who saw big improvements overall also saw big improvements their launch angle.
Launch Angle 2018 2019Buxton 12.7 19.5Kepler 16.2 18.2Polanco 15.5 18.0 Sano 12.9 16.0Garver 12.5 15.3
What's interesting is that there's more where that came from: if these players and their coaches can continue to tweak swings that launch the ball even higher while maintaining power, you might see incluso más bombas in 2020.
 
Moves that bombed
 
A failing Cron job
It is rare to find an above-average player available on waivers, but the Twins thought they had one in C.J. Cron, who the Rays let go to make room for Ji-Man Choi to start every night. And after the month of May, Twins fans were loving this move when Cron was hitting for power and drawing walks. But slumps starting in late June made us realize why the Rays considered him expendable. One might attribute nearly all of Cron's struggle to a nearly-chronic inflammation or "bone bruise" in his thumb, which harmed his swing substantially. So, I can't complain too much about this move--the Twins don't have a great solution at first base (especially with Brent Rooker's problematic year), and they might consider bringing Cron back next year, at least till Rooker, Alex Kiriloff, or even Luke Raley seems ready to contribute.
 
La Tortuga no está en fuego
Along with everyone else, I was on the Willians Astudillo bandwagon to start the year. I always love when unusual players can be successful, and Astudillo might be the most unusual. His minor league hitting stats, his catching ability, his position versatility, and his arm all argue for him to have a place on the team. But once he got regular playing time, the cracks began to show--it's really hard to be a good hitter when you swing at everything. And "swing at everything" is less of an exaggeration for Astudillo than for anyone else, as he walked only 5 times in 202 plate appearances. You don't really have to pitch to La Tortuga, you just have to throw it in his general direction. His propensity for weakly hit balls in play makes few pitchers fear him. Still, a .700 OPS is good enough to be a backup catcher in the majors, and maybe he can improve his hitting a little, so I'm not too worried here--but I'm not sure I have time for the La Tortuga fan club meetings anymore.
 
On to the starting pitchers:
WAR 2018 2019 Change6 starters 9.7 16.7 +6.9 Berrios 3.3 4.4 +1.1 Odorizzi 2.6 4.3 +1.7Gibson 2.8 2.6 -0.2Lynn=>Pineda 0.8 2.7 +1.9Romero=>Perez 0.7 1.9 +1.2Santana=>Dobnak -0.5 0.8 +1.3
Moves that worked
 
Berrios and Odo for the wins
Jose Berrios went from being the Twins' best pitcher to also their most dependable. There was never a stretch from Berrios where he faltered for an extended period, and he eclipsed earning 600 outs (that is, 200 IP) in a season for the first time in his career. His walk rate and ERA went down as his velocity stayed around 93-95 MPH and his outstanding curveball kept curving.
 

 
Odorizzi meanwhile had the best year of his career, posting a 3.51 ERA, 10 strikeouts per 9 IP, and allowing only 16 home runs, all the best of his career. The Twins are now wishing they could have signed him to a longer contract, as they need him next year.
 

The 1948 Braves lost the World Series on "Spahn and Sain and pray for rain", though the 2001 Diamondbacks won the World Series with "Johnson and Schilling and the good Lord willing." Can the 2019 Twins advance on "Berrios and Odorizzi"...and not so warm and fizzy? Listen to Thin Lizzy? Then after, not so easy? The rhyming isn't as clever, but Baldelli's bullpen usage will have to be, as they'll likely need at least one win each series in games without either of their top two starters.
 
Patient, Passable Pineda & Perez
Martin Perez provided uncharacteristic excellence in April and May first half, but at the end of June something happened and he started giving up lots of runs in lots of innings. Michael Pineda had to work the rust out with a rough April, but after that was solid and finished the year with an ERA of 4 (lower than the league average) and solid numbers across.
 
Getting to know Randy Dobnak
Randy Dobnak was undrafted out of a college named Alderson-Broaddus in a town named Phillippi in West Virginia, so he went to pitch in an independent league where the Twins noticed him and signed him. He then had success at every level in the minors. He doesn't strikeout a lot, he gives up his share of walks, and his fastball can barely hit 94. His solution to this is to usually avoid the four-seam fastball and instead work the sinker, slider, and an occasional changeup and sprinkle it in and out of the zone. The results have been excellent in five starts, and that's likely enough for Dobnak to earn a start in the ALDS next week.
 
Moves that bombed
 
No ace to be seen
May and June had Twins fans loving Berrios, Perez, and Odorizzi, and August had Pineda pitching well, but at every step, the Twins could have dearly benefitted from a number one starter. The Twins tried to sign Dallas Keuchel, but he sat out half the season instead. They tried to trade for Marcus Stroman, but the Mets took him in a strange strategy of sacrificing the future to miss the playoffs today. They tried to trade for Zack Greinke, but they couldn't give up as much as the Diamondbacks could. They wanted Madison Bumgarner, but the Giants didn't want to part with their long-time starting pitcher. So the Twins had to make do without a top-notch pitcher, and now in the playoffs and in 2020, it becomes even tougher to get by without one.
 
Stop taking mystery pills
Michael Pineda, in a surprise to everyone, was suspended late in the year for testing positive for diuretics. Pineda claims that he took a weight loss pill that was unknowingly tainted with hydrochlorothiazide, and Major League Baseball pretty much conceded that fact in reducing his suspension from 80 to 60 games. Still, no one complained about this suspension; we cannot effectively ban PEDs unless we also ban PED-masking drugs, and we can't effectively ban those if excuses are allowed. So the lesson here is simple: professional athletes should never take any drug or supplement that hasn't been reviewed by team doctors. The Twins' staff will not let Pineda accidentally ingest a diuretic, but they had no way to prevent it here. Dear all future Twins players: don't take mystery pills. If they work, there's probably a reason, and if they don't work, why would you take them?
 
And the bullpen:

WAR 2018 2019 Change11 relievers+spot starts 2.4 7.7 +5.3 Rogers 1.9 2.1 +0.2 Duffey -0.2 1.2 +1.4Duke=>May 0.8 0.9 +0.1Pressly=>Harper 0.8 0.9 +0.1Moya=>Littell 0.1 0.6 +0.5Hildenberger=>Thorpe 0.0 0.6 +0.6Reed=>Smeltzer -0.2 0.5 +0.7Belisle=>Romo -0.2 0.5 +0.7Rodney=>Stashak 0.5 0.5 0.0Magill -0.3 0.1 +0.4Busenitz=>Parker -0.8 -0.2 +0.6
Moves that worked
 
Relievers are molded, not signed
I and most other writers wanted the Twins to sign some high-level relief help. There is no doubt that Falvey and Levine tried, but just came up short. But in the end, the Twins pen was well above average, and all but two of the contributors weren't such last year. The Twins know well that the best relievers are often failed starters, and Duffey, May, and Littell all made that transition this year, with Stashak having done so last year. Rogers got even better this year compared to last, and Thorpe and Smeltzer swung between the bullpen and rotation to fill in the gaps much better than expected. Gaining 5 WAR out of a pieced-together, work-in-progress bullpen is a tremendous boost to the team as a whole.
 

 
It's always in the last place you look
If you would have told me the Twins would add a reliever who throws 94-97 mph, throws a really nice curveball, strikes out 12.8 per 9IP, and keeps a lid on home runs, I'd be thrilled with that acquisition. But it wasn't required, as Tyler Duffey, who has been bouncing between the majors and AAA for four years, has become a upper-tier relief pitcher. He was searching for the secret to success and finally found it in embracing the relief role. Now my question is, how many more pitchers can Wes Johnson and Jeremy Hefner develop into scorchers?
 

Instead of trading prospects, call them up
The Twins front office were criticized for failing to trade for a top pitcher at the deadline, and their one acquisition, Sam Dyson, fell flat immediately. Still, they expressed a valid point: instead of trading their high-minors assets for short-term help, why not use the assets as the short term help itself? In very limited playing time, Brusdar Graterol contributed in key spots and showed that he's ready to help in the postseason. The Twins also called up Jorge Alcala to do the same, but the success of the rest of the bullpen limited his chances.
 
Want mo' Romo
Sergio Romo came onto the Twins roster with a big positive attitude and an even bigger slider that seems nearly unhittable to righthanders. While he wasn't around long enough to post more than half a WAR for the Twins, he contributed toward several wins and will be highly important against the Yankees and then the Astros, two highly right-handed teams, in the playoffs.

 
Moves that bombed
 
Blake "Out of the" Park-er
Blake Parker was signed as a plan B--a move to bolster the back end of the bullpen. Instead, he ended up the Twins' only bullpen acquisition over the offseason, and proceeded to give up 7 home runs and 16 walks against 36 innings pitched before the Twins said goodbye. His numbers before and after the Twins stint are passable, so the Twins can be forgiven for making an okay move that just didn't work out. Give them credit for moving on early enough--no Twins fan will need to remember Blake Parker after this paragraph ends.
 
His name was Magill, he called himself Lil, but everyone knew him as Nancy
Rocky Baldelli stepped into his room, only to find Guardado's bullpen. One leftover piece of that pen, whom Baldelli seemed to tout, was a pitcher who never shined as a reliever in the minors or majors. The Twins thought he had some tools they could work with, but it didn't come to pass as Matt Magill had a ERA of 4.45 and decent strikeout rate, but he fell apart in key situations and didn't have the foundation for success that the Twins' staff was looking for. Like Parker, they moved on from Magill quickly, and he has had some success with the Mariners, but he was never going to be a top bullpen option and is no big loss.
 
Division champions
 
It's overall been an excellent season for the Twins. So take today and tomorrow to enjoy the afterglow of the best regular season the Twins have had in your lifetime and feel good about what they accomplished, no matter what happens in October.

Why can't we have nice things? Maybe that's a common refrain, but then again shouldn't it be why does common sense escape so many? As Michael Pineda now faces a 60 game suspension, ending his season and ability to help the Minnesota Twins in the Postseason, we're left shaking our heads as to why cheating is always defined as a mistake.
 
There's zero denying that Michael Pineda knew what he was doing. Ingesting a diuretic that he obtained from a "close acquaintance" is the same tired excuse we're often fed. You see, those that lack common sense also have this belief the world around them follows suit. Here's the reality, Pineda got caught and still can't own it so he's going down with the ship.
 
If there was no ill intentions in taking the drug, Pineda could have quickly reached out to team doctors or trainers for an opinion. He made a choice to forego that route because of the assumed answer. Whether Pineda believed there would be substantial helpful effects for whatever he was trying to mask or not, he chose to turn from a protocol that would've been in the best interest of himself and moreso his team.
 
In the end it's really the Twins that lose here. After paying $2 million on the belief they'd get to monitor rehab and then get a productive pitcher in 2019, they got an $8 million tab that ran out right when they needed it most. Pineda has been Rocco Baldelli's best starter since being shut down for 10 days on May 27, and Minnesota went 11-4 in the 15 games he started. This was supposed to be Jose Berrios' staff, but it was Big Mike that looked the part of ALDS game one pitcher. Not anymore.
 
Nothing about this suspension changes the Twins outlook when it comes to playing in October or winning the AL Central division. Both of those things will still happen. Where the fallout comes is in how and what Minnesota does to compete against the best of the best. You can get by with three elite starters or four quality ones in Postseason play, but the Twins now have two wild cards, an ill asset, and a handful of unproven commodities. It's been the Bomba Squad all year, and the pen has stepped up of late, but the need has now never been greater.
 
An era or so ago when PED usage ran rampant in baseball (thank you Bud Selig), I had no problem with the best looking for that advantage. Now the ball is juiced and the playing field is leveled that way. Testing is stricter than it's ever been though, and the sport has since decided drugs have no place in the game. To continue operating that way is as selfish as it gets, and only hurts your club. Pineda will still get paid next season, and he makes a healthy sum for 2019. The fans and players looking to make a splash this season now all lose.
 
This is a story we've heard plenty of times before. It's an excuse and apology we'll hear plenty of times again. No amount of money can buy common sense, and unfortunately for the Twins, Michael Pineda's desire to be about himself is the latest example.
 
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In tonight’s twin over the Cleveland Indians, Yasiel Puig hit a comebacker to Jake Odorrizi in the fourth inning and immediately turned and went back to the dugout. Puig had no chance of reaching first safely on the play and Odorrizi ran the ball to first himself while looking back at Puig with a somewhat surprised expression on his face. The Target Field crowd immediately booed Puig and Dick Bremer speculated that Cleveland manager Terry Francona would pull Puig from the game.
 
Upon entering the visitor’s dugout veteran Carlos Santana pulled Puig aside and began talking with him and stayed seated beside Puig for the remainder of the inning. Francona stepped down from the top of the dugout and said something to Puig while rubbing his head in what appeared to be an affectionate manner. Puig ran out to right field at the bottom of the fourth and was not pulled from the game.
 
Francona is known as one of the most beloved player’s managers in the game and he probably knew how to best deal with an outgoing (to put it nicely) personality like Puig’s. Puig most likely immediately understood what he did wrong and his lack of hustle seemed to be an immediate reaction due to his frustration at grounding out to the pitcher. While Francona may still choose to further address the issue with Puig, his decision to keep Puig in the game certainly paid off for Cleveland. Although Cleveland ultimately went on to lose the game, Puig hit an RBI double to tie the game in the sixth inning and doubled again in his next at bat, later coming around to score. It seems likely that an emotional player like Puig was motivated to amend his mistake and may have also been fueled by all the boos he received from the Target Field crowd.
 
It is a bit interesting to me as to why the Minnesota crowd would be so upset with Puig not hustling on what was a sure out. I guess it’s good to “play the game the right way” and Puig certainly didn’t endear himself to Twins fans in the last home series, but if anything Puig’s choice not to hustle only helped Minnesota by ensuring that a throw didn’t need to be made on the play. It also brought about the possibility of friction between Puig and his teammates which would also be beneficial to the Twins. Additionally, does the absence of seeing Puig slowly trot down the first base line only to thrown out by a mile really take much away from the aesthetic of the game?
 
From my point of view, I can see why a Cleveland fan (or teammate) could be upset with the play. This series with Minnesota is absolutely crucial for Cleveland as they had fallen behind the Twins by six in-a-half games before the series and won the first game. Miguel Sano had a similar play in the next inning where the ground ball he hit skipped on Cleveland pitcher Aaron Civale and Sano was able to beat out the throw after hustling out of the box. But again, Puig could immediately see that Odorizzi handled the ground ball and that he had no chance to reach safely. Minnesota’s Eddie Rosario also failed to run to first after a dropped third strike and he had no worse a chance than Puig of reaching first on the play (he didn’t receive any booing).
 
Finally, if you really want to look at the play as objectively as possible, Puig may have also been keeping himself out of the way of potential injury on the play. Although the odds of getting injured on the play were probably microscopic, so were his chances of reaching without recording an out. Plus, Puig did come up limping after scoring in the top of the eighth inning, so it’s not as if he is immune to injury on the base paths.
 
What do you think? Are you enraged by Puig’s antics or was his not hustling pretty inconsequential? Should the home crowd have booed Puig or thanked him for making the out all the easier for the Twins? Leave your comments below.

There’s been no larger point of contention for the Minnesota Twins in 2019 than the bullpen. While the starting rotation has dealt with ebbs and flows, it was the relief corps that constantly faced criticism. After acquiring Sergio Romo and Sam Dyson at the deadline, the group improved. Brusdar Graterol has now debuted, and both Trevor May and Tyler Duffey have stepped up. It’s a September call up that could be among the most beneficial though.
 
Midway through the summer of 2018 Paul Molitor’s best and most trusted relief arm was Trevor Hildenberger. The side-armer owned a 2.80 ERA and .661 OPS against through his first 42 appearances a season ago. Unfortunately, those came in the Twins first 79 games. By all measures, Molitor had run him into the ground, and things went drastically off the tracks from there.
 
Hildenberger blew his first save on July 15 last year. He made 31 appearances from that point forward totaling a 9.64 ERA and 9.95 OPS against. Opposing batters teed off on his pitches and it carried over to the 2019 season. Starting the year in Rocco Baldelli’s pen, Trevor owned an 8.36 ERA through 14.0 IP before being optioned to Triple-A Rochester. The ineffectiveness continued there, and he was eventually put on the shelf.
 
Fast forward a few months and back to full health, Minnesota’s former high leverage on was on the track back to the bigs. Across eight post IL appearances (12.1 IP), Hildenberger owned a 0.73 ERA and .315 OPS against. He struck out ten batters and walked one while giving up just a single run on six hits. That’s obviously an incredibly small sample size, and almost half of that work came in the Gulf Coast League, but if we want encouraging signs then this is it.
 
There’s a lot we don’t yet know, and Baldelli doesn’t have much runway to figure things out. We can assume that Hildenberger will get something less than 15 innings the rest of the way to prove his value. What we do know is that this is a guy who has gotten it done for the Twins in the biggest of spots previously. Adding that type of arm to a Postseason run could be something substantial, and completely out of the question even a month ago.
 
With a lineup as good as Minnesota has, they’ll never find themselves out of a game. Now having significant options on the mound, they also find themselves in a much better position to make a run into October that had some serious uncertainties prior to the trade deadline. Adding pieces from outside of the organization was always going to happen. Arms emerging from within, and especially those who have previously shown a strong ability, is a testament to hard work and internal development.
 
If Hildenberger is truly back for Minnesota, that’s something everyone can get on board with.
 
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Brusdar Graterol made his much-anticipated debut this afternoon as part of the Twins' 8-3 victory over the Detroit Tigers. The 21-year old has been raising eyebrows and expectations primarily because of his velocity and the impact he could make down he stretch run and hopefully a long run into the playoffs. Comparisons have been made and dreams have been dreamt of the Twins striking gold for this year in much the same way the Angels did in 2004 with Francisco "K-Rod" Rodriguez.
 
Graterol pitched a scoreless ninth to close out the victory for the Twins, as they were able to stretch the lead in the AL Central over Cleveland to 5.5 games. This was a great way for a guy like Graterol to make his debut: a low leverage situation against a weak offense. And he performed. His first pitch as a big leaguer was advertised on TV broadcasts at 100 MPH because of rounding. Baseball Savant had it at 99.6. This would be a good time to note that I am not projecting anything about how hard Graterol may throw in the future or analyzing how hard he threw in the minors - just a few thoughts on how hard he threw today.
 
Graterol began his outing with a four-pitch strikeout of Dawel Lugo. Lugo didn't swing at any of the four, which came in at 99.6, 99.3, 99, and 98.5 MPH. Graterol then faced Brandon Dixon, who hit a single on the fifth pitch of the AB and second slider. To Dixon, Graterol threw three fastballs at 98.5, 99.1, and 98.6 MPH. Then Jordy Mercer saw two fastballs at 99.3 and 98.5, a slider at 88.1 and hit a 98.7 MPH fastball for an infield single. The first pitch to Jake Rogers was another 99.6 MPH fastball (tying his first pitch for the fastest of the outing) for a game-ending double play.
 
So what did he throw today? Overall, there were 14 pitches with 10 for strikes. His fastball accounted for 11 pitches and 8 strikes. He topped out twice at 99.6 MPH with his first and final pitches. His fastball averaged 99 MPH and none were thrown slower than 98.5 MPH.
 
And here is why that matters to Twins fans. After 14 pitches, Brusdar Graterol now sits in positions 2-7 for individual pitch velocity by Minnesota Twins this year. Position #1 is still held (for now) by Trevor May who hit 99.8 MPH on August 5 against Atlanta's Johan Camargo. Extend that out throughout the Statcast era (since 2015) and Graterol is tied for third in individual pitch velocity behind that May 99.8 MPH pea, a 99.7 MPH fastball thrown by Ryan Pressly in 2016 and tied with a 99.6 MPH pitch thrown by JT Chargois in 2016 also.
 
For a long time, the Twins have been left out (somewhat intentionally and also unintentionally) from baseball's growing velocities. In Brusdar Graterol, Twins fans have someone exciting to watch who has the potential for missing lots of bats. Ironic note to end: Graterol missed exactly zero bats today against the Tigers. But that will change.