nclahammer

I was just thinking today, Im gonna free up a lot of my time and let the Twins be....sick of watching them...
 
but THEN..they call up Astudio? gulp..im back in!

There’s growing concern within the baseball community about the health of the MLB as an organization, and the game overall. Since the mid-2000s, attendance and television ratings have been dropping consistently. According to Baseball Reference, in the past 20 years attendance per game across the entire MLB peaked in 2007 at 32,696 per game. In the ten years since, there has been a steady decline in attendance per game all the way down to 29,908 per game in 2017. That is a decrease of just about 8.5 percent. I’m not including 2018 numbers in this analysis as we are still in season and the spring typically draws a smaller crowd. The commissioner’s office often talks about game length as being a driving factor in this decline, but I believe that is an oversimplification of the trend, and there are bigger factors in play.
 
Game Length and Attendance Trend Lines
 
In 1998, the MLB expanded to include the all current 30 teams. In this analysis, I’m using data from 1998 onward because it most fully represents the league we see now, and expansion often alters attendance for a wide variety of factors that I won’t be addressing in this discussion. Look at Figure 1 below:
 
 


 
 
Figure one, which compares attendance and game length, raises some questions about the validity of the League’s primary argument that game length is affecting financial success of the league. As you can see, these two lines don’t seem to be correlated at all besides a very faint trend. It’s also interesting to note that the total range in game lengths in this 20-year span is only 19 minutes, with the average length per 9 innings being 2 hours and 53 minutes. 13 of the 20 years fall within 5 minutes of the average game length. In other words, we are not seeing egregious volatility in game length in the MLB. At the very least, it’s a stretch to assume game length is the sole cause of the downward trend in attendance.
 
Reducing Game Length
 
I want to be clear in this post: I am not against making minor changes in baseball to speed up the game. I think in 2017 we were at a point in game length that was not sustainable over the long term (3 hours and 5 minutes/9 innings). The corresponding rule changes made for 2018 seem to have had a slight effect. So far in 2018, the game length per 9 innings is down to 2:59.
Something that does drives game time up considerably is pitches per plate appearance, as you can see below in Figure 2.
 


 
I heard suggestions such as lowering the mound once again to reduce the pitcher’s advantage, thus creating less strikeouts and reducing pitcher per plate appearance. In theory, this could work. When the MLB lowered the mound in 1969, run production increased for two years. However, in 1971 & 1972, it suddenly declined, leading to the implementation of the DH in the American League in 1973. If you went to lowering the mound in 2019, you may have a shorter game due to less strikeouts, but run production could spike so much that you would have to make another adjustment, or worse, the games actually got longer due to more runs. Not to mention changing the record books. So, what actions can the MLB take to help raise attendance levels?
 
The Real Reason Attendance is Down
 
The reason people aren’t attending games is because it’s too damn expensive. Since 2006, the average MLB ticket price has gone from $22.21 to $32.44, per Statista.com. That is an increase of 46% over just 12 years. This is an extreme burden on families, and this increase is seriously outpacing inflation or any significant change in the economic environment. ValuePenguin.com had a great article that was written in 2016 about the true cost of attending a Major League Baseball game. They found that when you consider the median household incomes in MLB cities, and account for all associated costs with attending a game (tickets, food, drinks, transportation), on average a fan must work 4.3 hours to offset the cost of a game. You won’t attend many games if you’re being hit with that every time.
 
Conclusion
 
What bothers me about this conversation is that it’s largely led by the commissioner’s office. The commissioner wants financial success for the owners and teams. I don’t consider myself a baseball purist, but I don’t want to see major changes happen to the game in hopes of shortening game length, when a simple solution of lowering ticket prices could increase attendance just the same. All the changes being suggested will have a marginal effect on the time it takes to play a baseball game. As we saw in Figure 1, in the past 20 years, the average game length has only varied by 19 minutes. If you want something drastic to return to the 2:30 games of the mid-20th century, you would have to reduce the count to 2 strikes and 3 balls, or something even more drastic. So, let’s start a conversation on the affordability of the games, get more people (especially kids and families) into parks around the country, and get baseball back on track. Long term, it’s in the owners’ and the League’s best interest.
 
-Miles

During the final game of the last homestand against the Rangers, after the Twins dropped the first three games of the series to the Rangers, many fans noticed a change to the familiar Minnie and Paul celebration sign in center field.
 
As an apparent gesture of the Twins performance this year, likely in particular that of the offense lately, Minnie and Paul had paper bags placed over their heads. Minnie and Paul are well-known for their friendly handshake over the Mississippi River.
 
Minnesota Twins Senior Director of Ballpark Development and Planning Dan Starkey said, “We felt this was the correct gesture to ensure that Twins fans have the right mentality when coming to Target Field to cheer on the Twins this year.” He added, “We are considering making additional changes to the famous Minnie and Paul sign. For example, after Joe Mauer leaves the Twins or retires, we’re considering changing the handshake to some kind of fist bump to appeal to current players and millennial fans.”
 
We asked Starkey if they had any additional plans around Target Field, other than with Minnie and Paul, to commemorate the failing Twins season. “Well if the Twins are truly going to continue being a bad team this year, why not embrace that and find ways to enjoy it? When the Twins are officially eliminated from playoff contention, we are planning on hosting a paper bag giveaway sponsored by Cub Foods so every fan can watch the game from the comfort and security of a paper bag over their head with some eye holes poked into it. We’ll even have mini paper bags for the kids,” Starkey said.

*I’m primarily posting this to my blog in order to use it as part of a tutorial video I’m putting together, but I hope there are also a few things in here you find interesting.
 
It would have been difficult to expect Logan Morrison to replicate the excellent numbers he posted last season, that was by far his best year after all, but LoMo has fallen so far behind even his career averages you have to wonder if he’s ever going to turn it around.
 
He’s actually made solid contact, and is putting the ball in play more often than in 2017, but the drop in results is shocking. Here’s a quick glance at his career numbers via Baseball-Reference:


I recently dove a little deeper into the numbers for a video I recorded for YouTube.

Something I didn’t touch on was the fact that opposing pitchers seem to have figured out how to attack Morrison. Dave Newman of the New Richmond News in Wisconsin shared this on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/dmnewman/status/1010644735512449024
Attached below are two heat maps via Baseball Savant, the first shows his average exit velocity. Notice the low numbers on inside pitches up in the zone …


… and the second shows his slugging percentage. As you can see, even though he’s had better exit velocity on balls down and away, it’s not translating into much.


So what needs to happen for Morrison to turn things around? An adjustment. He somehow needs to alter his approach without completely turning his back on what made him one of the best power hitters in baseball last season.
 
Easier said than done.

Once again, the Minnesota Twins have recalled Jake Cave to the Major League roster. After optioning Ryan LaMarre back to Triple-A Rochester, the former Yankees prospect is back in The Show. A he heads back to the Twins active roster, Derek Falvey, Thad Levine, and Paul Molitor should all be on board with this being an extended stay for the Minnesota outfielder.
 
Here's something that seems to be lost on Twins fans at times; not all prospects are created equal. Cave was acquired from the Yankees this offseason, and was someone the front office targeted back during the Jaime Garcia flip. While he isn't the pride of the organization, he is included among MLB Pipeline's Top 30 for the Twins, and makes a similar appearance on Seth Stohs' list (from Twins Daily). At 25 years old, he's cut from a similar cloth to a player like Mitch Garver.
 
For the Twins, Cave presents an opportunity that should be capitalized upon. With a three man outfield all but set in stone, finding the regular fourth that can contribute in all phases should be something of importance. Robbie Grossman filled the role admirably in his first season with the Twins. His .828 OPS was a career high by a longshot, and he proved to be an on base machine. Since then, he's came back down to earth, and in 2018, he's no longer a replacement level player.
 
When targeting a fourth outfielder, Minnesota should want someone with a little pop, that can provide value as a bat off the bench. Ideally, the player can field in all three spots, and assets including speed and arm strength would be ideal. Cave checks off the boxes, and has gotten just 19 big league at bats to show anything.
 
Looking back at their respective abilities, Grossman is definitely a stronger player when it comes to commanding the strike zone. He's long been an on base guy and that's heavily bolstered by his ability to draw walks. While Cave lags a bit in that category, he's not some sort of massive black hole either. Showing a bit more pop over the course of his minor league career, there's a bit of give and take at play here.
 
Last season, Cave posted a .921 OPS at Triple-A across 72 games. The downside is that it came with an 82/18 K/BB ratio. This season in the Twins organization, he has just a .735 OPS across 58 Triple-A games, but the K/BB ratio has improved to a respectable 55/26. Those strides are both significant and important.
 
Right now, Grossman is a 28 year old with 470 major league games under his belt. He's turned the opportunities into 1.2 fWAR, or essentially just scratching the surface above replacement level. If that doesn't suggest an opportunity to improve upon that spot on the roster, I'm not sure what does.
 
Down in Florida for spring training, I heard rumblings of Grossman being saved by manager Paul Molitor. It was the front office who acquired Cave, and despite being arguably the better player and one with more upside, the skipper had stuck his neck out to keep Robbie around. Again, what he did for the Twins in 2016 was nothing short of exceptional but that performance is also long gone.
 
With the Twins season trending in the direction it has, and regardless of how it goes from here, I'd much prefer to see Cave get consistent opportunities. At some point, Byron Buxton is going to return to the 25 man roster. From that point forward, Cave could have the opportunities that Grossman has been given. Losing an asset is never ideal, but at that point, DFA'ing Grossman makes a lot of sense.
 
Being a betting man, I'd lean towards the Twins not going about it this way. That said, I'd hope it's the point in which the rubber meets the road. Falvey and Levine should exert their will on this roster, and one way of doing so would be choosing Jake over Robbie.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

I don't typically find myself sitting down to write on a Sunday evening, but with my foot in a cast, and a level of frustration in tow, here we are. The first part of that formula is thanks to my achilles deciding to part ways with my foot, the second half is the fault of none other than the Star Tribune's Jim Souhan. On Sunday night, the Tribune Twitter account sent out Souhan's latest with this attached to the piece, "Affordable contract would keep Mauer in good standing with #MNTwins."
 
Prior to getting full blown defensive, I needed to dive in further. So, I hopped into an incognito window and got to reading.
 
There were some quotes from Twins President Dave St. Peter defending the $184 million deal that any team would've jumped at the opportunity to ink. There was some talk with Molitor about wanting him back, and then there was what Souhan added on his own.
 
The journalist quipped "Mauer’s desire to play probably will be based on his health. He has recovered from concussion-like symptoms to return to the everyday lineup, but is batting just .222 with a .556 OPS since his return. Before his injury, his on-base percentage was .404, ranking among the league leaders. His on-base percentage since is an uncharacteristically low .300."
 
From Mauer, Souhan went on to talk about Dozier. A late-bloomer that has an impending pay day ahead. The Twins don't look like they'll pony up, and there's baseball reasons for that (even aside from his typical slow start). He could end the piece without returning to Mauer however, in which he offer "the best thing Mauer could do for his image is to sign an affordable contract, to give the hometown team a break, and finish his career as a bargain instead of a financial burden."
 
Now that you've read as much as you need to, I'm sorry.
 
Over recent seasons, Souhan has been raked himself by plenty a fan of his poorly written pieces. Whether suggesting Phil Hughes as soft for not pitching through injury requiring surgery, or calling Miguel Sano out prior to him having an All Star caliber season. In both of those occasions however, you could argue the pieces had a level of journalistic integrity. Here however, Souhan comes out looking like more of a clown than he ever has.
 
In noting Mauer's production, Jim points to Joe's return from the disabled list. While noting his numbers, he fails to mention that's literally an eight game sample size (including Sunday). The .759 OPS and .404 OBP come in a 38 G span to open up the year. Had he been leading off during that stretch, the Twins offense may have benefitted even more (but that's another story). In a game that decides realities over the course of 162 games, cherry picking eight of them (and failing to mention it), is poor at best.
 
Should the idea that noting statistical production in an lackluster manner not bother you, Souhan then doubled down with his final remarks. Noting that Mauer should give the Twins a break, and not be a financial burden. If the brigade wielding pitchforks at the notion of Mauer's previous contract didn't already have enough poorly derived information, they've just been handed a bit more fuel for the fire.
 
The horse is so far dead, there's not even reason to beat it at this point. That being said, Mauer's $184 million deal was already a hometown discount. There isn't an organization in baseball that wouldn't have signed on that dotted line in a heartbeat. He was the best catcher in the game, and on pace to be among the best to ever play the position. He took less to stay home, and has been unappreciated by a fanbase that saw a living legend because a brain injury drastically altered his career.
 
With baseball being an uncapped sport, and the Twins rarely being in a position to land big fish over the course of his deal, spending to supplement Mauer hardly seemed to be the right move. In 2018, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine executed a near flawless offseason to bring in talent while pushing the payroll to an organizational record. The reality is that even the most sensible dollars don't always come together at the right time in terms of the on field product.
 
Given the current climate of free agents, and the new front office, I'd guess that Falvey and Levine would chuckle at the notion of giving Torii Hunter $10 million for a 2015 season at 39 years old. Veteran leadership is a great thing, but I'll be damned if suggesting it trumps performance on a good team makes any semblance of sense. Hunter was a defensive liability and on his last legs at the plate. It was a fine last hurrah, but the dollars didn't make sense. The beautiful part of it however, was that it didn't make a difference on the bottom line either.
 
A season ago, Joe Mauer was robbed of a Gold Glove that would've made him the third player to ever win one at multiple positions (and first catcher). At the present time, he's the best defensive first basemen in baseball, and it doesn't really matter if opposing managers are blind to that because of his lack of power numbers. Should Mauer want to return next year, Minnesota should jump at the opportunity. He can help Miguel Sano make that defensive transition, and earning something like $10 million is peanuts for the benefit he'd bring on the diamond.
 
When the dust settles on his career, Joe Mauer will go down as the best player to ever play in the Minnesota Twins organization not named Harmon Killebrew. Whether you can't come to grips with his contract, or the fact that a season of inflated home runs in the Metrodome didn't transform who he was doesn't really matter. Tonight Jim Souhan tried to summarize what Mauer has been, and can be going forward, while failing to do even a shred of journalistic justice.
 
It's a sad look for the Star Tribune, it's an expected offering from Souhan, and it's a reminder that Mauer has deserved so much better than what Minnesota has given him for far too long.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Attending a nice panel discussion at SABR this morning, including 1979 Pirates champions John Candelaria and Grant Jackson. They reminded the audience that the team started out 12-18, and were in fourth place at the all star break. Their recollection was that there was still a long way to go, and they just continued to play the games one at a time. While the odds are against our 2018 Twins, it wouldn't be unprecedented to go all the way. The panel reminds me that the players have to just shut out all the noise that we fans listen to.

Yesterday a picture was leaked of a napkin left at an Applebees in Santa Monica, California, last month while the Twins were visiting the Los Angeles Angels. The napkin was left there inadvertently by, reportedly, Twins Major League Coach Jeff Pickler who was dining at the restaurant with other members of the Twins coaching staff.
 
The napkin had pictured, among other things, sketches of proposed fielding alignments. Some of the alignments were titled “Ryan Suter,” “Mexico,” and “Mauer.”
 
 
Jeff Pickler was hired during the 2016-2017 offseason by the Minnesota Twins as a coach to help with various aspects of the Twins at the major league level, but most notably by studying tapes and determining outfielder positioning for a talented trio which included Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, and Max Kepler to start the season.
 
The Applebees server, who requested to be left anonymous, stated that Pickler “Seemed like a nice guy…” but was “a crappy tipper” and “deserves to have his strategies exposed.”
 
One anonymous bench coach for a Major League Baseball team commented, “These are ****ing stupid. Except for the Mauer one. We’ll probably use that one.”
 
Shown below are graphics for the various shifts sketched on the discovered napkin:
 
"Ryan Suter"
 

 
"Sieve"
 

 
"T-ball"
 

 
"Mauer"
 

 
"Mexico"
 

 
"Broadcast Interview"
 

 
"Chris Davis"
 

 
"Batman"
 

 
Twins coach Jeff Pickler could not be reached for comment for this article.

Twins fans over the past few season have been extremely critical of Max Kepler and his terrible offensive production vs LHP. The criticism was rightly deserved, because his numbers were atrocious. Twins territory has been pleasantly surprised by his improvement vs LHP, but now his numbers vs RHP are dropping. Here are Kepler's splits from 2015-2017.
 
vs RHP: .258/.332/.471
vs LHP: .188/.259/.288
 
So against RHP, Kepler was solid at the plate. He reached base and hit for power. Against LHP, his numbers reflected that of a pitcher...
 
Now, here are Kepler's splits in 2018.
 
vs RHP: .200/.299/.335
vs LHP: .288/.360/.576
 
With 269 plate appearances, there is no need to panic just yet. His numbers vs RHP are not as bad has his previous numbers vs LHP. Plus, his numbers vs LHP are not much better than his previous production vs RHP.
 
In short, no, obviously our German right fielder is not broken. If he can become consistent vs both RHP and LHP, he will become much tougher to matchup against, and overall be more productive day in and day out.

After two weeks of guiding hiking and birding trips my mind automatically finds feathered beauty and details so, of course, as I move back to the details of baseball my bird attention shifts with it. I see Blue Jays, Orioles, and Cardinals so the transition is easy.
 
Baseball is filled with bird incidents like the pigeon that landed on the field and then wandered over to Greg Bird on first base. There was the Kestrel that entertained Twins fans during a cold and rainy night when it was on the jumbotron catching insects (2010). The Toronto Star reported on an incident with former Twin and Twin City hero – Dave Winfield, “On August 4, 1983, more than 36,000 watched the Toronto Blue Jays play the New York Yankees at Exhibition Stadium. When Yankee star Dave Winfield threw a baseball at the end of the fifth inning warm-up, it came into disastrous convergence with a bird that had been watching in right-centrefield. The bird slumped lifelessly on the Astroturf.
 
“A police officer sitting on the edge of right field thought it was an intentional hit. Winfield said it was an accident. He was taken to 14 Division and charged with causing “unnecessary suffering to an animal.” The charge was later dropped, but the moment never really went away.”
 
The Minneapolis Tribune wrote an article about Gene Glynn, our Minnesota Coach, who watches birds at his home in Waseca. “I find birds in every city in every park near the baseball stadium,” Glynn says. “In Florida the shorebirds are all over the place, on the West Coast it’s all about gulls, terns and herons and in Central Park in New York you can see just about anything. Birds get me outdoors and keep me occupied.”
 
Besides the team baseball has Robins. Like Robin Ventura from the White Sox and Robin Yount from the Brewers and Robin Roberts from the Phillies – a pretty good threesome! Aaron Crow brings another of our common birds to the diamond and Dean and Don Crow had the proverbial cup of coffee. Mike Parrott played from 1977 – 1981.
Hawk Harrelson represents our raptors. Andre Dawson was known as the Hawk too. Turkey Gross in 1925 and Turkey Tyson in 1944 represent the bird that Ben Franklin wanted to replace the eagle as our national symbol. The Eagle was represented by Bill Eagle in 1898 and the Grey Eagle – Tris Speaker, hall of famer.
 
The German word for birds – Vogel – can be found in Otto Vogel from the early 1920’s and Ryan Vogelsong added the lyrics of our avian world too.
 
The Bird is well represented from the diminutive Birdie (actually he was not) Tebbetts, catcher, to Doug Bird, the pitcher who lasted 11 years in the majors. There was also George Bird in 1871, Frank Bird in 1872, and Greg Bird – current. But of course THE BIRD was Mark Fidrych who took the baseball world over during his too brief career.
THE BIRD would go 19 – 9 in his rookie yearwith a 2.34 era in 250 innings and the Tigers were 74 – 88 even with him. His 9.6 WAR and his 1.079 WHIP would satisfy any stathead, but his story goes downhill fast. He lasted five innings and won only 10 more games total and he would only live to be 54. There are numerous bios on Youtube but this one really captures the excitement of his year:
and in books The Bird, by Doug Wilson, but seeing him in a Tigers Uniform that magic summer of his rookie year is something no one could forget. On the ground shaping the mound with his hands, and with his general demeanor Mark connected with the fans. 
Willie Horton, his teammate said at his funeral, “Everyone playing in the major leagues today owes a debt of gratitude to Mark Fidrych. He brought baseball back to the people. He made it popular again. He helped save the game.”
 
Bird came in as the game was at a 1976 low point – owners had a lock out, free agency was just beginning and fans were disgusted. But Bird had such enthusiasm and charisma. People loved it when he talked to the ball, when he ran off the mound to congratulate teammates or when he shook hands with the umpire after the game.
He played for the $16,000 minimum wage and still loved everything about the experience. The unwritten rule (yup, one of those) in those days was not to take curtain calls. The Bird changed that. Described as “gawky, noisy and energetic with a huge mop of curly yellow hair…” he did not look like a typical ball player. In fact, he looked like Big Bird from Sesame Street and that gave him his nickname – a perfect fit.
 
His career ended because of a severely torn rotator cuff, maybe from his 24 complete games, but that was before the TJ surgery and the advances that now save pitchers careers. He was what baseball needs right now, a personality. Burn all the unwritten rules, we need authentic heroes on the diamond, we need real people we can relate to. THE BIRD was a savior and we need more of them. We may have a big fish – Mike Trout – right now, but it is the Bird, Reggie Jackson and others who jump out of the game and into the hearts of the fans that really make baseball.

The Minnesota Twins were in the 9th inning of another lackluster offensive performance today against the Detroit Tigers. Despite a wonderful outing from starter Lance Lynn, Minnesota found themselves trailing 3-1 in the final frame. With 2 outs, a runner on, and Miguel Sano on the bench...Jake Cave hit for himself. It was at that moment the Twins had solidified their decision. Miguel Sano needed to go.
 
Immediately following the game, it was announced that the slugging third basemen would be sent to High-A Fort Myers. He wasn't going to Triple-A Rochester, or Double-A Chattanooga. Instead, he was headed all the way down to Florida. Both the Red Wings and Lookouts have roster space for the Twins third basemen, so this move is no accident. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have sent the message to Sano that it's time to get right or get gone.
 
In Fort Myers, Sano will be surrounded by the Twins complex, and monitored and a pretty small microscope. He's going to need to figure out how to ditch the terrible check swinging habit, learn to pick up pitches again, and decide that this shell of a player is not who he wants to be. While the former two issues are big ones, it's the latter that remains the most frustrating for me.
 
Over the course of his career, Sano has relied on natural talent, casting aside an ability to work hard and elevate himself to heights that a player of his caliber should be reaching. As I've stated in this space before, weight has never been the issue for Sano, but instead the message in regards to what he expects from himself. At some point, and the Twins hope this is it, the Dominican native is going to have to push for more. There's a really, really good ballplayer in there, but he'll need to be the one to find it.
 
The move surrounding Sano isn't unexpected, and it's likely the correct one. My estimation would be that recently acquired Taylor Motter will come up to take over as the bench utility player. Motter has done little-to-nothing at Triple-A for the Mariners and Twins this year, but with Robbie Grossman and Bobby Wilson on the pine, Paul Molitor needs an infielder. Motter can play all over the diamond, and should be plenty capable of spelling regulars over the next couple of weeks.
 
If there's a less than ideal wrinkle to the whole situation, it's that Jake Cave was again sent back to Rochester. He's been better than Ryan LaMarre, there's reason to believe his ceiling presents a significantly more appealing skillset, and LaMarre has been relatively awful on his own accord. Minnesota has turned from a contender into a pretender. This team is scuffling at the very least, and keeping LaMarre around for the story he was during spring training is silly. There's no track record to suggest he's anything more than a quad-A type player, and Paul Molitor isn't doing this lackluster lineup any favors by running him out there.
 
When the dust settles, Minnesota will welcome Mauer back with open arms. He isn't going to cure all the warts this team currently has, but it's definitely a positive to have him back in the fold. Negative as it may be right now, Sano deciding to invest in himself long term is the best development Minnesota could get out of this season. Hopefully Cave will get another shot to prove his worth soon. It was a busy day in Twins Territory to say the least.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

I am flabbergasted. I wants something to happen. I wanted a change, but Matt Belisle? For gods sake Cleveland sent him to the minors and the AAA team released him. This is our big move? This is how we fix the BP? Look at this quote from Twinkie Town - "Certainly the presence of Belisle is to lessen the workloads on fellow righthanders Addison Reed, Trevor Hildenberger, and Ryan Pressley. However, it’s a little quizzical that the front office was so quick to bring him in when Alan Busenitz (31% strikeout rate, 0.38 ERA, 1.76 FIP) and John Curtiss (33.7% strikeout rate, 1.61 ERA, 2.63 FIP) are dominating Triple-A. This is likely a case of Falvey/Levine wanting Belisle’s veteran presence (veteran presents?) while Busenitz and Curtiss are still rather green."
 
Is this Ground Hog Day? Is this what all those great stats whizzes came up with? Once upon a time we had a Twins FO that brought back anyone who wore a Twins Uniform, even if it was a costume part. I thought those days were over.
 
I think the answer to our current bullpen questions was in the minors, but of course the FO did not sign them, like they did not sign Wade and they have already proved that they want their fingerprints on every move.
 
Falvey if you want to bring a new culture to the Twins this is not the way to do it. https://www.twinkietown.com/2018/6/12/17453818/minnesota-twins-sign-matt-belisle-dfa-gregorio-petit-cleveland-indians-bullpen-relief-alan-busenitz
 
Would I rather have Petit - yes. Belisle's 5.06 ERA in 8 games is not a stat I take pleasure in. I gave our FO a C- in an early posting. Today I make that a D.

For better or worse, Miguel Sano has been the same player for much of his big league career. On one hand, that's a hulking slugger that drives baseballs deep into the outer reaches of major league ballparks. On the other, it's a free swinging giant that frustrates both fans and coaches alike. Regardless of which side of the fence he finds himself on during a given day, he's remained largely the same player throughout his career. What's someone comforting is that 2018 is no outlier.
 
Coming into the season, really at the beginning of spring training, I wrote about how Sano's weight itself isn't the issue. My problem with the big third basemen's size is more in relation to what it says about his level of commitment to both the Twins as well as his own ability to be great. By deciding not to adhere to guidelines suggested by his employer, and turning a bit of the extra baggage into muscle mass, there's a higher tier that goes from reachable to a distant memory.
 
On the field, and even with as bad as he's been for the Twins in 2018, much of the underlying numbers suggest he's not far off from who he's always been. Sano's .859 OPS in 2017 earned him his first All Star trip, and was in line with the .916 OPS he produced as a rookie in his first 80 major league games. Last season, he posted a 29.1% chase rate, and just a 62% contact rate. He swung through pitches 18.3% of the time, and he made contact on strikes just 73.5% of the time. None of those numbers are great, and especially so combined with a 35.8% strikeout rate. That being said, they combined to provide more than welcomed results.
 
This is where we get into some of the silver lining that Sano has left for 2018. On the season, he owns a 32.6% chase rate (3% worse), 64.9% contact rate (3% better), and a 16.5% swinging strike rate (2% better). The biggest dip is his 40.6% K rate (5% worse), and his 18.4% HR/FB ratio (9% worse). While the strikeouts and lack of home runs are certainly egregious, none of the other areas in which he's slipped up have been too drastic. On top of that, he's not being attacked in an entirely different fashion. Teams are throwing him nearly 40% fastballs, which is a career high, while it's changeups and curveballs that have been offered to him less.
 
So where does that leave us? Well if you've observed Twins broadcasts or watched a game in the park, I'm sure you can figure it out. Right now, Miguel Sano's biggest failure is in pitch recognition. For one reason or another he's guessing entirely too often at the plate, and in doing so, he's seen check swinging a crazy amount, while watching otherwise perfect pitches go by. The dip in offspeed offerings may have Sano waiting on pitches that won't ever come, while he's then susceptible to the fastball being blown right by him. He's swinging and missing less, and he's not chasing all the much more. In fact, when he's making contact, it remains at a comparable clip in terms of hard hit rate. Simply put, he just doesn't know what he's swinging at.
When taking a look at his pitch chart, we can see that Sano is being abused by the breaking ball low and away. Pitchers have gotten a ton of swings and misses from Sano on sliders and curveballs that are off the outside corner of the zone. Despite not being a dead pull hitter, those are the balls he's either check swinging on, or shouldn't be offering at whatsoever. Conversely, he's yet to swing through anything up and in, while six of his seven homers have come on pitches in the middle of the zone.
 
If you've checked out Rob Friedman's GIFs on Twitter (under the handle @PitchingNinja), you'll see how difficult attacking pitches can be. Both sliders and fastballs can get to the zone on the same plane, before one drastically turns away from an opposing batter. With a lacking ability in pitch recognition, spin isn't something Sano is currently picking up, and it leaves him flailing through both types of offerings not fully knowing which is which.
 

 
There's plenty of drills that can be executed to help with this sort of deficiency, and while they are simple in practice, application is hard. Big league pitchers are the best in the world for a reason, and even while Sano is always going to be a strikeout machine, the reality is that he can also hit very well. Until he can once again read offerings as opposed to guessing or reacting through them, he's going to struggle.
 
James Rowson did an incredible job of breaking down Byron Buxton's swing to the bare minimum and rebuilding him at the highest level last season. Sano shouldn't need that level of an overhaul, but the Twins hitting coach has his next big challenge in front of him. Pitch recognition isn't something you can simply use your given ability to get through however, and that's where this could take a tough turn for Miguel. He;s going to need to rededicate himself at the plate, and put in the work to see a different set of results. There's been different times and instances where the Twins have hoped that blueprint would play out for their third basemen and it hasn't.
 
Miguel Sano has the opportunity to be great, but he could choose to settle for being average. There's another crossroads in his path, and it'll be interesting to see how he attacks this one.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

With the 2018 Major League Baseball draft in the rearview mirror, the Minnesota Twins have now brought more young talent into the organization. Despite not having the first overall pick this season, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were able to identify a handful of players that could be making an impact at Target Field in years to come. While this class seems catcher and college heavy, there's also a juggle of names already included in the Off The Baggy top 15 prospects.
 
Before diving into an updated, post draft list, here's a few key areas to check out first:
 
2016 Top 15 Prospects
2017 Top 15 Prospects
2018 Top 15 Prospects
2018 Draft Picks
 
Now that we have the foundation laid, here's who I have as the Midseason Top 15 Prospects for the Minnesota Twins:
 
15. Wander Javier SS
 
Coming into the season, I found myself incredibly high on Javier, thinking he could end up being the Twins best positional prospect not named Royce Lewis. Unfortunately, he's been handed a season ending injury, and despite the surgery not being on his throwing arm, the biggest setback is missing out on a year of development at 19 years old. By the time he's back on the diamond, Javier will be 20. He's going to need to pick up and go right away to regain his prospect status. There's an incredible amount of talent there, and counting him out would be foolish.
 
14. Tyler Jay LHP
 
The Twins 2015 1st round pick is now firmly entrenched as a reliever. After being bounced back and forth between starting and the pen, keeping him healthy has maybe been the largest challenge. In 2017, Jay pitched just 11.2 innings, a mark he's nearly doubled thus far in 2018. He's still at Double-A Chattanooga which is unfortunate, and the strikeouts have dipped to just 7.5 per nine innings. As a lefty, he can bring it, and profiles well in the late innings. He'll need to start putting up numbers indicative of that should he want to jump to Triple-A. At 24, it would be ideal to see him get time with the Twins this year, but that would require a significant breakout in short order.
 
13. Lewis Thorpe LHP
 
Starting the season healthy for the first time in more than three years is huge for the Aussie. After a solid display at High-A Fort Myers last season, he was jumped to Chattanooga to begin 2018. The ERA sits at a respectable 3.74, while his 10.2 K/9 is something Minnesota would love to see carry forward. The 1.528 WHIP is a bit out of hand, and it's reflective of a guy that allows a handful of runners to reach base. Thorpe is still just 22, and already at Double-A. If he continues to refine his approach, he'll jump back into the national discussion.
 
12. Blayne Enlow RHP
 
The Twins targeted Enlow with some of their early round savings in the 2017 MLB Draft. After appearing in 20.1 innings for the GCL Twins last year, he's spent 2018 with Low-A Cedar Rapids. The 4.46 ERA isn't ideal, but he's another guy giving up too much contact right now. A 1.718 WHIP is buoyed by an 11.5 H/9. He's only 19 and the stuff is still very raw. His bender is impressive, and the velocity probably has a bit of room to grow yet. If nothing else, this is a very good developmental year for the Louisiana native.
 
11. Akil Baddoo OF
 
There wasn't a guy I was more impressed with during spring training 2017 than Baddoo when it came to physical body work. He looked as if he'd at half of his 2016 self, and put on a ton of muscle. At E-Town last season, Baddoo posted a great 1.057 OPS across 33 games. Batting as the leadoff guy for the Kernels this year, he owns a .788 OPS. The power continues to play, and while the average has sunk a bit lower than you'd like to see, his plate discipline hasn't fallen off much. He's got a chance to be the breakout type, much like the next guy on this list.
 
10. LaMonte Wade OF
 
As a 9th round pick in 2015, Wade hasn't gotten the fanfare he's deserved until recently. Despite posting .840 + OPS numbers in each of his first two pro seasons, he really only began to be a name more commonly known. Now at Double-A Chattanooga, Wade owns an .837 OPS on the year, and has already hit seven longballs. If the Twins really wanted to test him, he could be up filling in for Byron Buxton right now. He's got a tremendous eye at the plate, and controls the zone well. There's a lot to like here, and the ceiling is higher than just a fourth outfielder.
 
9. Zack Littell RHP
 
Acquired by the Twins in a shrewd exchange that involved Jaime Garcia, Littell has shown exactly why he was the apple of Falvey and Levine's eyes. He had a strong Twins organization debut at Double-A last year, and had been great in 28 innings with Triple-A Rochester this season. His major league debut didn't go smoothly, but there's little doubt that he'll be back, and that he's a capable arm to count on as a rotation mainstay.
 
8. Trevor Larnach OF
 
The 20th overall pick in the 2018 MLB draft, Larnach is of a similar mold to Twins prospect Brent Rooker. The power potential is massive, and he absolutely destroys the baseball when making contact. Swing and miss is a bit less of a worry here, although his position is certainly going to be limited to a corner outfield spot. He used all fields in college, but rarely pulled the ball. Ideally you'd like to see him shorten up a bit, and be able to get around on big league pitching to his drive side. This was a safe pick for Minnesota, and the bat should absolutely play.
 
7. Brent Rooker OF
 
I still think Rooker ends up at first base long term, but he's not a liability in the Robbie Grossman sense when it comes to outfield play. After a slow start at Double-A, he's really come around of late. From May 7 through June 6 (29 G), he owns an .890 OPS with seven homers. Rooker's bat was always going to be what drove his promotions, and it's played as expected. The next piece of his game that has to be addressed is the plate discipline. A 66/14 K/BB at Double-A is only going to get wider as he moves upwards.
 
6. Alex Kirilloff OF
 
Coming off of Tommy John surgery, it wasn't so much a worry that Kirilloff wouldn't rebound, as much as it was about how the time off would effect him. The short answer has been, not much. While Royce Lewis got the early fanfare as the latest first round pick, it's Kirilloff who's been shining of late as well. His .978 OPS is comprised of 11 homers and 17 doubles through 55 games. It's been a heck of a return to the diamond, and the bat first prospect has been nothing short of exciting.
 
5. Stephen Gonsalves LHP
 
After dominating Double-A to the tune of a 1.77 ERA through four starts, Gonsalves was moved up to Triple-A. He owns a 4.13 ERA through seven starts, but the numbers are inflated by a few clunkers. His 10.5 K/9 is more than impressive, but it's the 5.5 BB/9 that still cause the Twins pause. Command has always been the last part of the puzzle for the crafty lefty, and it'll be the piece he needs to hone in before jumping to the big leagues.
 
4. Brusdar Graterol RHP
 
Now completely healthy, the Twins next flamethrower has been must see baseball on the mound for the Kernels. His few DL stints this year seem much more roster manipulation than genuine cause for concern. He's gone six trips through the rotation, and owns a 1.95 ERA in 32.1 IP. With a triple-digit fastball in his arsenal, the 11.1 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 suggest he could probably use a new challenge sometime soon.
 
3. Nick Gordon SS
 
While shortstop may not be Nick Gordon's longterm home, it probably works out better that way for the Twins roster construction. Yes, he faded down the stretch at Double-A last year, but he's been nothing short of exceptional in 2018. His .906 OPS across 42 games with Chattanooga earned him a bump to Triple-A Rochester. In 16 games since his promotion, he's hitting .350/.371/.467. The five home runs continue to drive home the notion that the nine in 2017 were real, and he could turn into a 15-20 longball guy at the next level. He should be the Twins Opening Day second basemen in 2019, and there's little reason to worry about it.
 
2. Fernando Romero RHP
 
It took just 21 innings at Triple-A for the Twins to decide that Romero was ready for the big time. His 2.57 ERA with Rochester came with some walks (4.3 BB/9), but the stuff was absolutely going to play. Since being in the big leagues, he owns a 3.96 ERA over seven starts (36.1 IP). He was lights out against some good teams in the early going, and he's thrown in a clunker or two as well. Long term, he still profiles as an ace, and pairing him with Jose Berrios should give Minnesota a solid one-two punch for quite some time.
 
1. Royce Lewis SS
 
After making it to Cedar Rapids to conclude his first season in pro ball, Lewis has torn up the Midwest League this season as well. Currently his OPS is down to .750, but it rested at .799 through 40 games just over a week ago. The power hasn't really shown up yet, but it should come in time. He has plenty of room to fill out and gain muscle, so there isn't much cause for concern. Expect him to hit High-A Fort Myers for the second half of the year, and tracking towards a 2020 MLB debut is very plausible.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Byron Buxton practicing his catching in front of a US border wall prototype in June, 2018
 
SAN DIEGO – After suffering for months with severe migraines and with a history of concussions, Byron Buxton announced on Twitter (@OfficialBuck103) yesterday that he’s officially stepping away from Major League Baseball.
 
“We’ll miss his presence on the field and in the clubhouse. He’s definitely one of the best center fielders of all time. We wish him the best in his future endeavors,” said Derek Falvey, Minnesota Twins Executive Vice President and Chief Baseball Officer.
 
Buxton later announced that he’s been working out at a U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) facility in San Diego, California where he’s training to catch bags of drugs, typically heroin, being thrown over the border walls from Mexico to the United States.
 
When asked about the new work he’s preparing for, Buxton said “At least I don’t need to hit anymore.” He added, “I was born to climb walls and catch. And this way, I can also do it while proudly serving my country.”
 
But, is catching baggies of drugs going to be as easy as catching baseballs? Buxton stated, “The tricky part is that all of the bags can come in different sizes and weights. But if it fits in my glove, I’m going to catch it. Just as long as the border wall is not 55 or 60 feet tall like I’ve heard some people are proposing.”
 
Carla Provost, Acting Chief for the U.S. Border Patrol division of the DHS, said that they have had their eye on Buxton for a while, and contacted him when he went on the disabled list in April for migraines. “Last year we really dove into the analytics of border security. We have this new metric, abbreviated DRS, which stands for Drug Rings Squandered. We expect that Byron will step right in and lead the division in DRS.”
 
We caught up with Border Patrol Assistant Chief, Percy Woolbright, to ask about Buxton. “He’ll be a natural at this. He’s really talented. He can cover a lot of wall, too, because I saw his sprint speed has been measured at over 30 feet per second. Also, Byron can come to work every day knowing that the weather along the US-Mexico border is much more predictable than in Minnesota. And if Florida ever decides to secede from the Union like it did in 1861, we’ll set up a new border wall along the US and Florida, and Byron can work close to his family in Georgia.”
 
One might assume that because of the orientation of catching fly balls against the fence in baseball, he should technically be positioned on the south (foreign) side of the wall to catch drugs being catapulted from Mexico. Commenting on this, Woolbright said, “Umm…Oops.”

Ehire Adrianza has no business playing shortstop everyday, and Gregorio Petit has no business on an MLB roster. Ryan LaMarre should be nothing more than a fourth outfielder and pinch runner. And it’s way past time for the Minnesota Twins to call up Nick Gordon.
 
This was originally published at FoulPlaybyPlay.com.
 
The Ehire Adrianza Problem
On Wednesday night in Minneapolis, Ehire Adrianza started at shortstop because Logan Morrison’s back was still a bit stiff, moving Miguel Sano to first base and Eduardo Escobar to third. Miguel playing first makes a lot of sense, but Adrianza being in the lineup with Gordon hitting .357 at AAA Rochester just doesn’t compute.
 
Adrianza even had two doubles and drove in a run before booting a ball that led to a four-run sixth inning. Adrianza wasn’t given an error on the play. How I don’t know, but it was the play that forced the Twins to go to its bullpen, specifically, the overused Ryan Pressly. Pressly has appeared in 31 of the Twins’ 58 games, and he’s starting to show signs of fatigue. In his last three appearances, he’s allowed three earned runs over two innings, allowing four hits and a walk.
 
The Pressly problem I’ll save for another rant. This rant is about never seeing Gregorio Petit and Ehire Adrianza in Twins uniforms again. Even if Gordon struggles to hit in the bigs, which hasn’t been a problem for him at any level, he’s better defensively and on the bases than Petit and Adrianza right now.
 
Gordon is an Upgrade Defensively at Shortstop
Adrianza is three runs below average over 1,200 innings at shortstop. Petit is 48 runs below average over 1,200 innings. And while I don’t have access to the same stat for Gordon, Baseball Reference does tell me his range factor per game (3.46) is higher than Adrianza’s (3.28) and Petit’s (2.67).
 
Gordon is an Upgrade on the Bases
It’s also safe to assume Gordon to be a better base runner than both Adrianza and Petit. I can’t tell you how many runs Gordon is worth on the bases, but I can tell you he’s faster than Adrianza and Petit. Baseball Prospectus’ editor Aaron Gleeman indicates as much with regards to Adrianza on Twitter.
 
Adrianza and Petit have each cost the Twins a run on the bases this season and have combined for three stolen bases on four attempts. Gordon is seven of 11 on stolen base attempts this year.
 
Gordon is an Upgrade at the Plate
I know what you’re thinking: “It doesn’t matter how good Gordon is on the bases if he’s not on base.” Well, his batting average at AAA is higher than Adrianza’s on-base percentage and Petit’s batting average. Gordon is hitting .357 with an on-base percentage of .379. Adrianza’s on-base percentage sat at .281 at the time of this writing, and Petit’s average is .308 in 30 plate appearances.
 
The Lineup with Gordon
Assuming Morrison and Joe Mauer become available soon, which seems to be the case, you might think Adrianza’s playing time will diminish, and that’s true. But until Byron Buxton is healthy, which could take considerable time, LaMarre will still play center field, where Max Kepler is 35 runs above average over 1,200 innings to LaMarre’s -56. That’s a difference of 91 runs over 135 games.
 
I don’t know about you, but I’d also rather have Nick Gordon’s bat in the lineup instead of LaMarre’s. LaMarre might be hitting a respectable .288 with a .681 OPS, but just three of his 18 hits have gone for extra bases. Consider this:
Joe Mauer, 1B
Brian Dozier, 2B
Eddie Rosario, RF
Miguel Sano, 3B
Eduardo Escobar, LF
Max Kepler, CF
Logan Morrison, DH
Mitch Garver, C
Nick Gordon, SS

I think this lineup is better defensively, better on the bases and better at the plate than Paul Molitor’s, but I’m not the reigning American League Manager of the Year. Molitor might not be able to convince president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine to call up Gordon, and I don't know what they're doing claiming Taylor Motter, but Molitor should be in their ear every day, because it’s way past time for the Minnesota Twins to call up Nick Gordon.

The Twins have drafted more often that any other team in this slot. This will be the 7th time in 54 drafts.
 
Three guys are among the top pick 20s according to WAR in Torii Hunter, Denard Span and Trevor Plouffe. One other pick was helpful though he never played in the majors. Johnny Ard twice made BA's top 100 and was traded to the Giants prior to the 1991 championship season for reliever Steve Bedrosian. Ard's career ended with arm injuries in the Giants system.
 
Mike Mussina posts the best career from a pick 20 and Chris Parmelee's career is at about the median ranking 23rd in WAR of 48. The last five number 20 picks have not reached majors but I didn't include them in the median calculation as they have a chance.
 
It is kind of sobering to know that our selection today may not hit the majors for several years. In taking a closer look at the last five pick 20s only 1 of 5 has ever been on a top 100 list. Baseball America had Casey Gillespie at 74 prior to the 2017 season. Sobering.
 
The Twins have done very well with that pick relative to the league. I hope that continues today.

Buster Olney wrote a column that spoke to my frustrations. In the long run baseball is not being hurt by time of game - it is dying of boredom. When we base a game on strikeouts, walks, and homeruns we might as well have a home run and a throwing contest instead of a ball game.
http://www.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post/_/id/18564/olney-parts-of-baseball-are-disappearing-before-our-very-eyes
 
I miss stolen bases. If you saw Vince Coleman, Maury Wills, Lou Brock or Rickey Henderson you know there was an extra tension, suspense, and anticipation. Each pitch was exciting because baseball had an element of the unknown - a mystery. I loved it. Now the Twins could have that if Buxton gets on base, is not injured and is encouraged to go.
 
But in all time rankings only Rajai Davis is in the top 100, #73 with 402. Jacob Ellsbury is 118 with 343. Then Hanley Ramirez is 187 - 281.
 
Now I love bunt singles, but I also enjoy a good sacrifice. The leader in the all-time standings among active players is Elvis Andrus who is Number 395 with 100 sacrifices.
 
The sacrifice, done well adjusts the defense, creates speed, and can lead to miscues and base running adventures.
 
I really loved hit and run too, but who does it any more? It is not for everyone, but for those who could control the bat it could be an excellent play.
 
I like action. A full count walk or strikeout is a minimum of seven pitches. Are they exciting? NO. At least they addressed the intentional walk.
 
Okay a home run is exciting - for 2 minutes - of a three hour game. The most exciting player for the Twins right now is Rosario because he is always looking to take another base. It pressures the other team. I love it. I also love those who can challenge the shift. Little things, lots of them, filling up the innings is fun baseball. Could a team built with speed like the old St Louis Cardinals under Whitey Herzog, the dodgers of Maury Wills, the A's of Rickey Henderson or the Go-go White Sox of Aparacio and Fox win now? I would love to see someone try.

I had to stop reading the Buxton portion of the WHEN IT RAINS, IT POURS article today because it sent my mind back through the history of Baseball. I was luck enough to be a kid when Dizzy Dean was announcing games and he always made me smile, but as I learned more and more about him and his amazing, but too short career I learned lessons that continue to plague me. One injury cannot be isolated from the rest of the body. When I am suffering from various injuries that were accumulated in a lifetime of adventures and guiding my wife will sing a versus from skeleton song - https://www.lyricsondemand.com/miscellaneouslyrics/childsongslyrics/dryboneslyrics.html to remind me that everything is connected.
 
For Buxton to play with a broken toe is exactly what Dizzy Dean did and it killed his career. ]https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/tht-live/the-dizzy-dean-injury-cascade/[/url] When asked about the injury Dean said, "“Fractured. Hell, the damn thing’s broken!”"
 
Dean's injury happened during the All-Star game - "Initially, most thought Lou Gehrig, not Earl Averill, delivered the most damaging shot against Dizzy Dean in the 1937 All-Star Game. It wasn’t until later in the summer that the impact of Averill’s low liner that ricocheted off the toe of the Cardinals ace began to be understood."
 
"Dean returned to St. Louis and had the aching toe examined by Dr. Robert F. Hyland, the club physician. Hyland said the toe was bruised, not broken, and prescribed rest for Dean, according to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
Dean, who had a 12-7 record and 2.41 ERA, was scratched from his scheduled start July 11 versus the Reds.
During his recuperation, Dean clipped a newspaper photo showing his bandaged foot, autographed it, inscribed “Thanks, Earl” and mailed it to Averill.
 
Though Dean still was limping, Cardinals management instructed him to join the team in Boston. When he arrived, manager Frankie Frisch asked Dean whether he could pitch. Dean said he could.
 
On July 21, two weeks after he was injured, Dean started against the Braves in Boston. He pitched eight innings and yielded two runs, but he altered his delivery to compensate for the pain in his toe. By throwing with an unnatural motion, Dean damaged his arm." https://retrosimba.com/2017/07/08/dizzy-dean-and-his-final-painful-cardinals-days/
 
Dean tried to continue pitching even though he was hurt - the worst thing he could do. Buxton is our future and he has a history of injuries, but looking at his build and the way he plays it is not surprising. Someone needs to help him make decisions because players will always play.
 
In case we need reminding - here is a good site to look at 25 careers that were ended early by injuries. We might add the career altering of concussion to Mauer - http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1022656-25-potentially-immortal-baseball-careers-derailed-by-injuries#slide5 We can also add the shortened career of Kirby Puckett, and the impact of bad knees on Tony Oliva,
 
I know that I get caught up with critiquing players, but I also have to set back and realize that if they are injured and not playing it is frustrating them too.

Trevor May would NOT be an asset to the current Twins Pitching staff when Hughes was around yes but who do you replace now? May got battered around at Rochester tonight conjuring up memories of his former self, If the Twins are smart...they will only bring hm back in case of an injury

Will this be the year the Gophers make it to the College World Series? Currently ranked #11 in the country, they will start regionals next week. Last summer, I had the opportunity to travel to Omaha for the first time to attend the College World Series. I know I’m getting close to college baseball’s epicenter when I tune in AM 1620 The Zone and hear the broadcasters talking about how the strike zone is a little tighter during the tournament than it is in the regular season. I am here at the beginning of this nearly two week June event and get to see three games featuring Louisiana State, Florida (the eventual national champion), Texas Christian, Texas A&M, Oregon State and Louisville.
 
There is a 26 page preview section in the Omaha World Herald including a full page advertisement for TCU that declares “Horned Frogs know how to swing for the fences.” (I will learn TCU’s signature move after they score is fans and players alike who raise both hands and cup their fingers into a curved motion, a gesture somewhat similar to the University of Texas’s “Hook ‘Em Horns.” Must be a Texas thing.)
 
The College World Series is currently played at TD Ameritrade Park and, with a capacity of approximately 24,000, it is a sizable stadium located in downtown Omaha across the street from their convention center. The convention center housed a Baseball Hall of Fame traveling exhibit which I didn’t visit because, having been to Cooperstown, I wanted to put a higher priority on watching games. This new ballpark opened in 2011 and I heard from locals who waxed nostalgic about beloved Rosenblatt Stadium as opposed to the new facility’s larger, corporate feel.
 
As it is a very humid summer day in Nebraska, I appreciate that the new ballpark features drink rails, allowing me to eat my turkey burger out of the sun. (Not surprisingly during the afternoon game, the seats in the sun are only sparsely populated but the seats in the shade are nearly full.) After seeing me diligently filling out my scorecard, a man in a LSU t-shirt asks me what team I’m here for. Just a baseball fan from Minnesota enjoying the atmosphere, I answer. “Oh, you’re from Minnesota,” he replies in a lush, southern drawl. “So let me ask you this – whatever happened to Joe Mauer? Seemed like he was on a path to become a Hall of Fame catcher for awhile, right?” Wherever I have traveled to watch baseball, I am always amazed at how easy it is to talk about the game with perfect strangers.
 
You can either pay more and get a reserved seat (which guarantees you admission) or buy a $15 general admission ticket (which can be used for any game but does not guarantee admission). The game I bought a general admission ticket for I didn’t have any trouble getting in but was told that for the more popular games the line stretches down 10th Street and some wait for hours in the hot sun.
 
Fans wander leisurely through the ballpark if their team isn’t playing, which can be a problem for those concentrating on the game. When someone got up as the ball was being put into play I heard a guy behind me grumble, “Well, that was a hell of a play – I could almost see it.” A lot of school spirit resonates through the innings, from chants of “Let’s Go Aggies” to playing the school fight song after each team scores. But mostly it’s just an enjoyable place to be for those who love the game – the crowd groans as a baserunner is thrown out at third after trying to tag up from second on a short fly ball to right field. (I remember that play because the out was recorded 9-6-5. Yes, the runner got such a bad jump that the shortstop had time to cut the ball off and spin and throw to the third baseman to get the runner easily. There was an interesting conversation in the dugout after that miscue.)
 
I stopped at the visitor center by the Old Market and they told me where I could park for free – I had to get there early but that left time for a leisurely stroll along the riverfront. When I’m walking to the ballpark, I see Blue Jays everywhere and have to remind myself that it means Creighton, not Toronto. Boys Town, which is located west of downtown, featured an exhibit on the history of baseball at the orphanage, including visits by Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig.
 
Across the street from TD Ameritrade Park is the Omaha Baseball Village, essentially a large parking lot scattered with big tents for private parties and a plethora of vendors selling more t-shirts than I have ever seen in my life. (Well, there are eight teams, I reasoned…and as teams got eliminated their merchandise was marked down 50%.) I stop to take a picture of the sign with all of the cities listed and their distances from Omaha and am momentarily startled when I turn around to see a giant beaver sticking off the next table. (Clearly an Oregon State supporter.) The banner hanging near the main entrance sports the current tagline of the College World Series (“The greatest show on dirt”) and I remember the one from when I was younger (“Where the stars of tomorrow play today”).
 
The results of the games I attended are lost in my memory but I do remember seeing some top draft picks including Brendan McKay and Dalton Guthrie (son of former Twin Mark Guthrie). To take a break from TD Ameritrade Park, I made the one-hour drive to Lincoln to see a Saltdogs game, although unfortunately they were not playing the St. Paul Saints that night. On my way out of town, I stopped at Hy Vee to get a salad for lunch and noticed a middle aged woman shopping in a LSU cheerleading outfit, complete with LSU hairbows and an LSU ankle bracelet. What a fun atmosphere for baseball.

I just finished reading Jim Kaat's essay on ESPN - http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/23474497/jim-kaat-says-mlb-adapt-7-inning-games-effort-improve-sport and I really liked it. I think it is well thought out and he strengthens it with some notes about how the game has already changed so drastically over the years. This is a good change and I would love to see it, but won't because it will be resisted by the union, the league, the traditionalists.
 
​But what is tradition? Is it a pitcher throwing half the games and winning 50? Is it one pitcher winning 511 games? Is it an era of 400 hitters? Is it the murderers row and the sluggers who followed (sluggers who could also get hits and not strike out all the time)? Is it the war years when a 15 year old starts for Cincinnati? Can we say it is when Jackie Robinson integrated baseball and changed the rosters and stars? Is it the Bronx Bombers who dominated the 50's? Maybe it is the expansion era when lots of new records were set and we went from 154 to 162 games but kept all the same records? Is it PEDs? Is it the era of Latin ballplayers? Perhaps we can say it is the era of wildcard teams. Is it the demise of starters and rosters of all relief pitchers? Is it the era of big Ks and lots of HRs? There is no true tradition. Each season stands alone.
 
 
That's why we can argue about eras and great players without winning or losing. Its why the HOF is merely an annual pissing contest of my era was better than your era and your stats don't count because now we do not care about BA and ERA and Wins.
 
 
 
The very discussion that games are too long is a reasonable topic and a serious one. Change is not going to come by the little things that have been done. Shaving 3 minutes off the game is not the answer. Go Jim. I hope someone else is listening. And by the way - I would put you in the HOF!

Through eight games in the 2018 Major League Baseball season the Minnesota Twins have played to a .500 record. Having had to deal with blistering cold, and even some snow, it's hardly felt like a true baseball season. If there's one thing that has felt warm and fuzzy however, it's been the look and output of first basemen Joe Mauer.
In 2017, Mauer returned to the land of .300 batting averages for the first time since 2013. He posted an .801 OPS bolstered by a .384 OBP all while looking the part of a guy that has a trio of batting titles under his belt. Having already transformed himself into a Gold Glove caliber first basemen, getting back to his old ways at the dish was a nice sigh to see. What's encouraging is that early returns in 2018 suggest that there may be more to come.
 
To understand where we are, we should probably take a look back at where we've been. The last time Mauer was considered "himself" in 2013, he was putting balls in play with a 37.4% hard hit rating. His chase rates (O-Swing %) and swinging strike percentages have really never gotten out of line, which indicates that his going well has always been a reflection of barreling the baseball. Fast forward to when things took a turn for the worst, and we find ourselves at the 2014 and 2015 seasons. Mauer's .732 and .718 OPS in those two seasons respectively are a career worst. It's no coincidence that those numbers were posted in conjunction with 28% and 29.8% hard hit rates.
 
Now let's jump back to the present. A year ago, Mauer looked like a revitalized and rejuvenated player. His 2.2 fWAR last year was a high water mark since the last time he was an All Star (2013), and it was backed by a 36.4% hard hit rate. What's great is that the early returns in 2018 don't make that look like an anomaly, and if anything, suggest that things may be trending even a bit better.
 
Sure it's early, so let's pump the breaks on another MVP type season, but Mauer's start is pretty eye-popping. Thus far the Twins first basemen has a career best 47.6% hard hit rate, and he's already put 11 balls in play with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher. A season ago his total was 204 and right now he's on pace to slightly eclipse that with a total of 223. Diving in even a bit further to those barreled balls, 10 of the 11 have been hit 100 mph or harder. In 2018 Mauer generated exit velocities of 100+ mph on 105 different occasions. With his current pace, he'd nearly double that in 2018 as he tracking towards 203 occurrences.
 
What we're seeing in the early going from Mauer is a batter that's not only locked in, but one that isn't being cheated either. His 13.4% chase rate is more than 3% better than at any other point in his career. Having always had a very good idea of where the strike zone is, Joe is currently dictating at bats, than walloping the baseball when it comes into his hitting zone. Last season, Mauer's 13.9 K% was 26th among qualified MLB hitters. At just 10% out of the gate in 2018, only 15 qualified hitters have posted better numbers.
 
There's no denying that there's a level of regression awaiting its turn to set in. After all, Mauer has a current seven game hitting streak and owns a .375/.500/.542 slash line out of the gate. The .429 BABIP is incredibly high, but also reflective of the quality contact he's continued to generate. Even with regression though, the process has yielded results that should display a level of sustainability with the assumption that the blueprint is stuck to over the course of the season.
 
At the end of the day, Minnesota isn't going to watch Joe Mauer win another batting title by the end of his career (Jose Altuve exists in the American League). What is becoming more clear however, is that there's some serious ability left in the tank for a guy trending towards a Hall of Fame career. On the final year of his deal with the Twins, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine would be well served to bring this guy back for another couple of years. If Joe wants to keep trotting out to the diamond, it doesn't seem like his skills have told him that's a bad idea.
 
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After struggling his previous two seasons in the Minnesota Twins organization, Rortvedt is on fire to start 2018. He is finally coming into his own and becoming the catcher many thought he would become when drafted in the second round out of high school in 2016. After two subpar years, the great Tom Froemming and I were still high really high on Rortvedt. Still only 20, he has plenty of room for growth, and has the opportunity to be an All-Star catcher in the big leagues.
 
Rortvedt was more known for his offense coming out of Verona Area High School in Wisconsin, but his offense has struggled so far in his first two seasons, while his defense has been a real positive. As a senior in high school, he finished the season with an on-base percentage of .568 and a slugging percentage of .667. He was considered the top offensive high school catcher in the 2016 draft. So, it was just a matter of time before his offense came around. His defense, on the other hand, has been a pleasant surprise.
 
On defense, he threw out 36.2 percent of potential base stealers (30 of 83) last season. So far this year, he caught the only base runner trying to steal on him. His calling of the game is much-improved as well. In an article by Mike Berardino, he talked to Twins first base coach Jeff Smith.
 
“He receives the ball well; he’s got real soft hands,” said Smith, in the Berardino article. “He gives a good target and has made huge strides in his game calling and his ability to work with his pitching coach and his pitchers. Ben can really throw, too.”
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In his first two seasons, the best average for him was .250 in 13 games in Elizabethton in 2016. In his other two stops, he hit .203 with the GCL Twins and .224 in his first full season with Cedar Rapids in 2017. Rortvedt, hitting .471 through four games in 2018, is off to a really nice start, which is surprising considering he started out really slow in both of his previous years. I know it is really early, but I believe he has turned a corner. He has eight hits in 17 at-bats in his four games so far. In 2016, as a rookie, he started off hitting .179 (12-67) in his first 22. It was even worse in Cedar Rapids last season, hitting just .145 (16-110) in his first two months of the season.
 
But, to his credit, he was able to bounce back from both of those slow starts. In 2016, after starting out slow in both the Gulf Coast League and Elizabethton, Rortvedt hit .313 (10-32) in his final 11 games. Unfortunately, as I mentioned, he could not carry the positive momentum into 2017 from the ending to the previous season. However, he did have a decent ending. After the woeful beginning to the season, Rortvedt finished the season batting .224, but in his final three months, he hit .268. That does not seem great, but it is a definite improvement, especially in his first full season playing professional baseball. In those final three months, he hit all four of his homers on the year. He was also the second youngest player to play for the Kernels last year, only older than 2017 first overall pick Royce Lewis.
 
If Rortvedt keeps it up with the Kernels, he should be in the state of Florida by the month of June, maybe even sooner. It would also clear up a spot for David Banuelos to become the every day catcher. Banuelos came over to the Twins in an offseason trade from the Seattle Mariners for International bonus pool money. Fort Myers lacks a powerful lineup, so Rortvedt would come in and make the Miracle lineup a force. Mitchell Kranson could be due for a promotion as well, which would clear up a spot for the Verona native. With his defense being a major strength already for him, when the offense comes around, which it is starting to, the sky is the limit for the youngster.

My last blog chronicled the movement of black baseball players into major league baseball from Jackie Robinson in 1947 to the Red Sox finally adding a black player in 1958. As I said then, if we question the impact of steroids on our baseball records we should also look at how the exclusion of the black ballplayer impacted the records between 1989 and 1958. If one deserves an asterisk, the other requires a new said of record standards.
I understand that baseball evolves – we had the hitless era, the homerun explosion, the war years, the years of integration, baseball’s best decade by my estimation in the 1960’s, then the domination by the pitcher, free agency, the monsters of the steroid, and the era of the bullpen. So it is hard to completely compare and determine what a difference the addition of the African American player made, except for my judgmental statement that the 1960’s might be baseball’s best decade.
 
In the 1950’s I rooted for the Milwaukee Braves and learned to hate the Yankees. The Yankees dominated everything as the rest of the teams integrated. The Yankees, took their time, added Elston Howard, but did very little and their star began to diminish. In fact they signed other black players like Vic Power and Reuben Gomez, but they were traded because the Yankees management wanted to make sure that they had a quiet “negro” and not a trouble maker like Jackie Robinson. http://www.angelfire.com/ny5/yankeeswebpage/elston.html
This started the downfall and end of the Yankee dynasty until they started signing or more likely trading or signing Free Agent black and Latino players like Willie Randolph, Derrick Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Reggie Jackson, Dave Winfield, and Rickey Henderson.
 
From Aaron and the 1957 Braves on into the 1960s it was a plethora of Black players – Robinson, Mays, Clemente, Stargell, Gibson, Banks, Jenkins – that set the standards for MLB.
 
The influx of black ball players meant that the quality of MLB increased dramatically. It is easy to make the assumption that the lack of black ball players meant that the all white major leagues did not have a representative set of statistics and all stars before Robinson and Campanella and Mays and others joined the league.