mike8791

I applauded this FO for taking the unprecedented risk at the deadline to assist in a playoff push. It didn'y work, but you have to take that risk if you want to contend(especially if your pitching development fails as badly as Falvine's). Mahle is a potential ace or at least a solid #2 starter, barring injury. This is exactly what mgt. should be doing - to improve a good team(barring injuries) enough to make the playoffs. When did Ryan ever do this in all his years? But(and it's a big BUT), if Falvey doesn't resign this guy, then it was a poor trade. Assuming Mahle is relatively healthy, he, as well as Gray, should both be signed to longer term contracts, given the dearth of playoff success and minor league pitching development in the Falvey era. If not, this trade can fairly be criticized.

Nice optimistic article! But this guy couldn't last w/Cubs and so far is below replacement level w/twins. If he were with a rebuilding club, then sure, he is worth a risk. But the Twins are not rebuilding. Can they risk sending this guy out at the major league level? This optimism for the pen is based on hope for improvement, not performance. Not a bad thing if he were #8 in the pecking order with the 1-7 guys fairly solid. Unfortunately, half the bullpen, as it stands today, is in a similar category - Pagan, Moran, and Lopez. This currently does not have the look of a playoff-type bullpen.

I don't get it! To their credit, the FO added some real talent in the offseason - Correa, Lopez, Gallo, Vazquez, Taylor. As many have noted, barring a rerun of injuries like last year, the team's rotation has been greatly improved, the starting lineup looks capable of improvement, and the bench is much deeper. So why stop with the bullpen.? Any team that is committed to a successful run in the postseason should aim for a shutdown bulletin - 3 late-inning relievers who can do just that, even against teams like Houston and the Yanks. As you pointed out, Nick, we currently have Duran and lots of question marks. Lopez has shown great potential, but in one half of a season. No one else in this pen has shown that shutdown ability consistently. Jax allowed 42% of inherited runners to score, Thielbar is at an age where he could fall off the cliff, and the rest are just big question marks. After seeing the last 2 seasons torpedoed by ineffective relief, is it hubris that prevents this FO from spending an extra $5 -10MM to sign an established reliever like Chafin or Moore? Would either of these two bolster a pen that includes Pagan? Defending Falvey for doing nothing about the pen because of a better second half misses the point: the current Twins bullpen is relying very heavily on one reliever, Duran, to repeat last year's performance. An injury to him would be disastrous to hope for returning to the playoffs - and winning at least one game! I hope Falvey's bet pays off, but if not, by any reasonable accountability, his failure to act here is a fireable offense.

Mike Sixel: Remove four players currently in the roster? Yikes. Who are you willing to lose to take this chance? In addition to pagan? Huh! I mentioned signing one of the top 3 FA relievers remaining, and possibly take a chance of a high risk additional signing. Falling in love with all these prospects is a sure-fire way to continue our streak of 20 straight years of Not One Playoff Victory.

I find this topic equally fascinating - and frustating. Thank you, Brock, for bringing Falvey's comments to our attention. While Falvey has demonstrated the ability to consummate trades that have helped this club, namely by adding such arms as Odorizzi, Gray, Maeda, Mahle, and now Lopez, as well as the pickup of Duran, along with some key FA signings as Cruz and (hopefully Vazquez), he has been strangely quiet on the reliever front. I say "strange" for a number of reasons: 1. In the 2021/2022 offseason, despite the obvious weaknesses in the 2021 pen and a number of highly regarded FA relievers in the 2021/2022 offseason, the FO signed exactly one FA reliever - Joe Smith, who was released mid-season. Falvey's response was the (rightly) much-maligned trade of their best reliever, Rogers, for an injury-riddled Paddock and a marginal reliever in Pagan. When Pagan flamed out, the FO belatedly traded for the O's Lopez on August 1st, well after Pagan had proven his ineffectiveness earlier, especially against Cle. Falvine's inactivity in the reliever FA market perhaps was as big a contributor to late season collapse as all the injuries. 2. The current offseason shows again the dichotomy in Falvey's planning. By adding Correa, Vazquez, Gallo and Taylor, he has given fans hope for a bounceback season in 2023. Yes, I would like to have seen the addition of someone like Abreu or Josh Bell to protect against Kirillof's history of injuries, but that ship has sailed already. Guerriel should be on Falvey's speed dial, but that is very doubtful. The rotation is the strongest in years, as is the depth. But yet again, Falvey is seemingly ignoring the pen! 3. In these days of shorter starts, especially as espoused in Minnesota, an essential to winning a division title and even winning a playoff series or two is dependent on a shutdown bullpen, requiring a minimum of 3 late-inning relievers who have consistently shown the ability to strand runners and hold a lead. The alternative of one or two aces to start in a playoff is a pipe-dream, especially with Falvey's astounding failure to develop even one shutdown starter or reliever in 6 years of drafting coupled with his aversion to sign long term contracts with starters. In 2022 we enjoyed a great season from Duran and a surprising good one from 36 year-old Thielbar. Even if we assume Duran stays durable and avoids a sophomore jinx and Thielbar can dodge father time and continue to strand runners( 22% in 2022), who else can we rely on? Yes, Jax is frequently mentioned in the same breath but his 42% of IRS rate belies this high ranking. Lopez has the potential, but not the track record, to instill confidence in late-game situations. And the rest of the "designated pen" - Alcala, Pagan, Moran, Magill - are big question marks either due to injuries, lack of big league experience, or uneven big league performance. For those Twin fans maintaining that the bullpen makeup should stay in flux to give some blocked minor league starters, like Winder, Varland, SWR, Sands, etc., a chance to move up to the MLB pen by opening day, my question to you is: why would a FO already spending $150MM, the largest budget in team history, risk blowing the season(again) on what looks like an average, at best, bullpen? Amazingly, there are still several FA relievers out there(Chafin, Will Smith, Matt Moore) who are good(not sure) bets to raise the bullpen ceiling. Sign at least one of these 3 and maybe a higher risk bet on someone like Britton or Hand. Adding no more than $5-10MM a year on bolstering the pen is the kind of move a contending team should make. If Falvey is serious about going with what he has, that is a much bigger risk than signing 1 or 2 FAs for less than $10MM. If this team fails to make the playoffs again, Failvey should be fired. No more excuses!!

Got to join the nay chorus here! Sale(or Wacha, Cueto or any other #4/5-type starter) is not what we need. With a relatively healthy squad, we need a young, cost-controlled starter with #1 or 1A potential to pair with Ryan. Don't forget, 3 of our 5 potential starters' contracts expire after this season. We've had enough retreads during the Falvey regime to choke a horse. Guys like Sale, et.al., will not move the needle, I'm afraid. Finding a young, controllable pitcher will not be easy, but we have the excess personnel, including some minor leaguers, to put a very enticing package together. Sure, we might have to cough up one of Lee, Lewis, Martin, or even Miranda, plus one of out top 2 pitching prospects, and one of Kepler, Larnach or Kirillof, but isn't it worth the risk to solidify the top of the rotation for several years? I would feel much better aboiut contending with a Glasnow, May or even Montas pairing up with Ryan.

NO, raising the floor should not be a priority at this time. Agree, FO whiffed badly on not bolstering the lineup with guys like Abreu or Hill, This offense looks average at best unless everything breaks right - limited injuries, bounce-back seasons, etc. I'd rather the FO concentrate on adding at least one needle-mover than someone like McCutcheon. That's a very tough job now at this stage of the offseason but the Wonder Boys put themselves in this spot. Nibblin' around the edges is not the ticket to restoring fan interest..

This has been said many times so forgive me for saying it again: what the Twins lack is a solid #1/#2 to pair up with Ryan for several years. As things stand for 2023 the Twins rotation has a number of #2/3/4s in their rotation, but only for 2023. Lopez is not an ace-in-waiting, which is why Miami is willing to trade him. If you are going to give up solid assets like Arraez, Kepler, Larnach, Kirillof, etc., go for broke or just add pitching depth like Wacha, Cueto, etc. to supplement a fairly solid, but injury-prone staff. If you think this is a make or break year for the FO(which it should be) they need to think big. Unfortunately, they failed to add much to a depleted lineup that lost 2 of their 3 top run producers. Picking up a Gallo is a pure crap shoot and there aren't any other impact bats readily available. So the only way to move the needle now is to overpay for a young, contollable pitcher like Gallen, May, Gausman, who can slot in for several years as a stopper. The Twins now have excess at corner OF, mid infield, and yes, even catcher. Adding in one or two of our top 10 prospects will also be necessary, but that's whats needed to give meaning to the word "contender".

Thanks Nick for your usual lucid explanations! While all of us might bicker with the exact final rankings, I don't think anyone can seriously quarrel with your logic. I'm particularly struck by your high rating on Ober as being astute. As with most on this list, questions on his health are legitimate, but he's shown enough to rank only behind Ryan in importance to a solid rotation in the next several years. Agree completely. And if I polish my crystal ball, I can envision your top 5 including Buxton, Lewis, Lee, and Polanco, as well as Ryan. These rankings would highlight several important points that I hope the FO will be considering in the trade mart: 1. Including Ober in any trade for another starter makes no sense. 2. Arraez looks like a solid sell high candidate, partly because he has no set position, does not fit as a typical power-hitting 1B/DH and plays at a position of strength in the current org. 3.While the rotation looks better on paper than it has in years, trading Gray or Mahle just subtracts from the 2023's playoff capabilities. Unless this FO truly intends to forego playoff contention this year, they should not be looking to weaken what is now a certain strength of the team. The only case where this would make any sense is if their inclusion in a trade resulted in a.) adding a #1 potential starter to pair with Ryan(see below) ; or 2.) adding a sorely needed cleanup hitter so lacking in today's lineup(relying on Gallo here is a fool's errand). 4. With no top-of-the-rotation pitchers in the organization except Ryan, trading for a high upside starter seems the best use of current trade assets. While it might take an Arraez, Kepler, one of Lee, Julien or Lewis, and Varland or SWR to grab someone like May from LA, Darvish from SD, Gausman from TB, or Gallen from ARI, they should be looking at this type of addition now. Such an addition would be much more important than grabbing an upgrade to Farmer for a short period of time. And one last thought. If trading Jeffers to land an ace-type starter should be strongly considered, as Vazquez is clearly the regular and addition of a defensive-oriented backup is not a high hurdle.

Can't quarrel with your list, Ted, but with one big cautionary note on Jax. Before he can be designated a late pen go-to-arm, he must make significant strides on probably the most significant stat for any reliever - Inherited Runs Scored(IRS). His 2022 rate of 42% was a tic below Duffy's at 44%, and higher than the much-lamented Pagan at 38%. Compare these to Thielbar(14%) and Duran at 22%. Which is why this FO needs to correct their gross negligence of last offseason by signing at least two back end relievers from a fairly flush FA stockpile still remaining. As things stand now, this is still an average pen at best on a team much too dependent on heavy usage of relievers in every game. But that's another story altogether!

Nice article Lou! You've summarized the current state of the Twins pipeline succinctly : and then there were two. In the 7 years of the Falvey reign, his pipeline has turned into a trickle. Other than the 2 mentioned, there is no one else in the org. who looks primed to step up and fill a starting position in '23 or '24. And while SWR and Varland are good prospects, they have not yet been rated "elite" by any of the scouting services. When you add the fact that not one drafted pitcher by Falvey has developed into a late-inning stopper, this whole pitching development program looks more and more like System Failure 2.0. The one bright side to these 7 years has been their ability to fill some of the holes by trade. Starting with trades/FA pickups like Odorrizi, Pineda, Maeda, Ryan, Gray, and Duran, the FO has shown the ability to unearth some pretty good talent. The problem is there is no clear ace on the current roster, nor do Varland/SWR look the part. After having punted again in the FA sweepstakes, the regime is now counting on improvement by trade or bottom feeding in the FA market. The problem is the Twins have 3 of their starters coming off the books next year, leaving the cupboard bare(unless they are willing to sign Gray and Mahle to bigger, long term contracts). What are the chances of that with this risk-averse FO? So what sort of a trade might provide the long-sought "ace" who could be expected to be a stopper? On Zone Coverage, you introduced 3 trade targets who, more than the Lopez's of the world, have more top-side potentiaL: Gausman(TB), May(LAD), or Montas(NYY). Are any of these 3 really available and can we put together a package that might nab one of them without sacrificing top prospects like Lee, Lewis, SWR and/or Varland? Would you put Ober in a package or is his value to the Twins not worth the risk.? Your ideas are intriguing but are they at all realistic? Looking forward to hearing your ought processes.

Before we look at budget concerns, let's look at the 3 FAs the Twins could have signed; Rodon, Abreu, and Contreras. Yes, they would have vaulted the Twins over budget($160MM vs. 140-150 expected). But if this team was serious about contending again in 2023, how do you feel about a lineup that included Abreu and Contreras and a staff ace with Rodon? Ya think this team would be a favorite for AL Central title, at the very least. Instead, this FO foolishly tied themselves to a CC signing that was never to be and in so doing, blew their chances for adding needle-movers. Now, signing Vazquez instead of Contreras was not the killer, but missing out on a true ace and a middle-of-the-lineup guy sorely missing at present(unless you think Joey is the answer) seems to have sunk this team for next season. Having missed out on a very good FA class, the talk is now of improvement by trades. While this FO has done fairly well in the trade mart, does anyone think they can pick up difference makers without giving up same in guys like Arraez, Polanco, Gray or Mahle? Color me sceptical. The one thing the FO should be doing from here on out is fortifying an average at best pen. After Duran, what shutdown relievers can we count on? The 3 FAs who could really have helped, Jansen, Robertson, and Kimbrel are gone and with this FOs aversion to invest in established relievers, do we think next year's pen will be much improved over 2022? Where we sit now, if the FO passes on reliever additions, they will be just as guilty of malfeasance as last year - a big reason we failed to advance to the playoffs. Counting on injured players to produce solidly next year seems to be this FOs MO and with that continuing mindset, 2023 should mercifully be their last year in the TC.

I'll have what Nick's drinking. Really, why is everyone so down on Farmer? He is a perfectly acceptable fill-in until one of the rooks is ready, that is providing the Wonder Boys fill in several gaping holes that still exist.

Spot on, Doc! Unless Joe P has the clout and resolve to raise our 2023 payroll to minimum of $160MM, there is no way to justify spending $40 MM/yr. on CC. Correa obviously is an all star but what did he add to the team in 2022? Four more wins than the previous year. Yes, injuries were a major factor, but 2022 exposed the major holes in this team - a cleanup hitter who could drive in runs, a catcher who could hit, an excess of LH -hitting, injury-prone OFers, only one true late-inning stalwart reliever. As you said, it makes no sense to wait on Correa to eventually sign with a major market team, while other quality FAs are being signed. This is exactly what happened to the Twins last year when savvier orgs, realizing an impending shutdown as probable, scooped up the best FAs - leaving Falvine with leftovers like Archer. Adding to my puzzlement over this apparent fixation with Correa is the fact that we acquired a perfectly acceptable SS in Farmer, with a top prospect, Lewis, potentially available in the second half of the season. Why trade for Farmer(and lose Urshela) if he is used as a utility player? Seems to me, if this is the case, the FO has started the offseason with a net loss to an already iffy lineup. The smart move is filling the gaps with upgrades at DH, RF, and C. How would Bell, Hanigan, and Contreras look in the lineup? Maybe there is even room to add a proven late-inning reliever to bolster the team's ability to hold on in one run games. Trade Kepler, one of our excess middle infielders, and a top 10 pitching prospect, and a proven starter by trade is possible(Lopez). I sure like this scenario better than the single addition of CC.

Might as well chime in here even though I have no personal anecdotes to share. I'm sure Jim is a good person at heart, but he never exhibited any sign of leadership, unless you regard his statement of "a total systems failure" as leadership. True, it needed to be said, but why did it take him so long(six years after our last playoff appearance) to say this? If Joe is truly representative of a new generation and new thinking, here is what I would like to hear from him: "I am here to win! Thirty one years of no championship is unacceptable. As is 19 straight consecutive playoff losses. Falvey has had six + years to right the ship. As we go into the seventh year I have directed him that 2023 is a must win year. If he needs an expanded budget, he will get it.. The Twins are not a big market team but we are committed to bringing a winner to the TC and it is on Derek and company to deliver this year. He will have ownership's full backing to succeed. If he does not, changes will be forthcoming. This is my pledge to the loyal and long-suffering Twins fan base: no excuses for failure!" I'm not holding my breath, after all he has the Pohlad genes coursing thru his body, but at least now there is some hope that this ownership group is taking winning seriously , for a change. At least, one can hope