d-mac

Hello all,
 
It is a great time of the year to be a baseball rumor junkie and (finally) a Twins fan. In last years blueprint forum I advocated a complete teardown in trading both Dozier and Santana. This year I am advocating for just the opposite. I think the Twins are entering year 1 of a 5-year window to truly contend. I say 5 years because that is one year longer than the Twins have team control over key players such as Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Rosario, and Buddy Boshers (Kidding). I extend this by 1 year because I think there are relatively easy ways the Twins can extend this window via extensions and just having a more competent front office and development process. Ideally, Falvey and Levine will be able to build a sustainable pipeline of talent so that the Twins can pick and choose key guys they wish to extend and supplement them with young talent like Royce Lewis, Blayne Enlow, etc.. However, we know the reality of a non-big market team often means rebuilding becomes necessary to generating a potential championship level team. So the Twins need to start operating as if they have a 5 year window that starts now. Admittedly, I am more aggressive in this blueprint compared to what I believe Falvey and Levine actually will be, but I don’t think any of it is too far outside of the box.
 
Moves that already happened
 
Sign Paul Molitor to a 3-year extension: I expected this to happen and am glad that he will return. I know there was some controversy over his bunting habits and maybe even his bullpen usage but I thought those are minor discrepancies that don’t rub me in the wrong way. Overall he is very receptive of new information, appears to have the respect of the clubhouse, and has an excellent working relationship with Falvey and Levine. All are very important aspects in a modern baseball manager. Worst comes to worst, the Twins would have no problem eating a couple of million dollars if they want to go another direction before the contract expires.
 
Not Retain Neil Allen: I would assume that at least part of the holdup on the Molitor announcement was some back and forth on the future of Neil Allen. Sounded like Molitor wanted Neil Allen back, but it is hard to justify him deserving to come back based on the pitching accomplishments over the past 3 seasons. It is impossible to quantify the effect a pitching coach has on a staff but it think it is safe to say it was time for a new voice in this area for the Twins.
 
Declining LHP Glen Perkins Team Option and Paying his $700,000 Buyout: This was seen as a given and was an obvious move for the Twins. Perk made excellent progress to even pitch this season. I don’t know if this is the end of his baseball career, but based on his emotions after his last game this season, it certainly is a possibility. I hope he has a future in some capacity with the organization as he seems to be very smart and likeable. Maybe they can even bring him back on a minor league deal. Thanks for everything Perk!
 
Releasing/Outrighting C Anthony Recker: I’m a bit confused on this one. I remember I looked a couple of weeks ago and so him on the 40 man roster and thought “what the hell?”. I now see that he refused assignment to the minors and is a free agent as of October 10th. However, I also see that he was outrighted in late July so not sure if he was even on the 40 man anymore. Either way, he no longer is on the 40 man and that is a good thing.
 
Hiring Garvin Alston as Pitching Coach: I had never heard his name before the hire. I was someone that was all in on the Maddux or Hickey train. I don’t know if either of them even had interest or if Alston was the guy all along. Either way, I give the benefit of the doubt to Falvey and Levine because I think they have earned it based on the hires of Rowson and Pickler last season. They’ve also brought in John Manuel from Baseball America, Daniel Adler from the NFL, and Jeremy Zoll from the Dodgers. All of these hires are very impressive and show that the rest of the baseball community is buying into the future of the Twins. Honestly, if Terry Ryan had made the hire of Garvin Alston I would not have given him the benefit of the doubt, but Falvine have earned our patience and trust thus far.
 
Lost Bench Coach Joe Vavra to the Detroit Tigers: Gardy is getting the old band back together in Detroit!! Best of luck to Joe, but I have a feeling the Twins will be fine with out him.
 
Outrighting Niko Goodrum: I’m not sure he is a big leaguer. One of those guys that didn’t progress through the system as hoped. He was a given to be removed from the 40 man.
 
Lost Randy Rosario & Daniel Palka on Waivers: Both of these guys were borderline 40 man roster candidates and that in and of itself diminishes any trade value they might have had. It would have been nice to sneak them through waivers, but I didn’t expect that to happen. If it did, both would have been strong candidates to be lost in the Rule 5 draft anyways.
 
Lost Nik Turley on Waivers: Never has had a long term future with the club
 
Outrighting Chris Gimenez: In my initial blueprint, I had the Twins tendering him and starting the season with him on the 25 man roster. But I do get the move. Gimenez appears to be a great guy and was an above average backup catcher last season. Wish him nothing but the best and I’m sure most Twins fans feel the same.
 
Outrighting Ryan O’Rourke: O’Rourke is another player that I initially kept on my 40 man roster, although not the opening day 25 man roster. I thought that he would be kept around and given another chance as a loogie. But again, I get the move and am not all that upset, especially if the Twins feel they can add and better utilize his 40 man spot and maybe keep him on a minor league deal.
 
Hire Bench Coach Derek Shelton: I don’t know anything about him besides his background, but Falvey and Levine again will get my trust on this.
 
Future Predictions
 
(Where the Fun Starts)
 
40 Man Removals:
The Twins had 45 guys that would fall on the 40 man roster at the end of the season. This includes the guys they have on the 60 DL that will need to either be added to the 40 man, passed through waivers, or removed from the Organization all together.
 
Glen Perkins & Bartolo Colon Retire: I addressed Perkins already, but I do believe that both him and Bartolo will retire. Bartolo has said he would like to pitch, and if he does that is great, just not with the Twins. I thought it was very fun having Bartolo around and he was deserving of being in the 2017 Twins rotation. 45 year old Bartolo Colon should not sniff the field for the Twins in 2018.
 
Dillon Gee & Hector Santiago Depart Via Free Agency: Santiago is all but gone at this point. After a great April, he was awful and then was hurt. Seems like a nice enough guy, but him signing with a different teams would be best for both parties. I thought Gee pitched well for the Twins, but the Twins should look to upgrade there bullpen and hopefully fill it out with the young talent we’ve heard about for 3 years that they have coming. If they swing and miss in Free Agency, I could see them circling back on Gee, but that means a couple of things went wrong.
 
Waive / DFA / Outright the Following Players (I can’t remember what means what):
 
Buddy Boshers: Been used as a lefty because of a lack of options elsewhere in the organization. That should change with likely one free agent lefty coming in, and Tyler Jay ascending.
Michael Tonkin: It has already happened to him once this year, seems inevitable.
Phil Hughes: He is a sunk cost and I would have no problem cutting bait. No team will claim him and his contract, so why waste a 40 man spot on him? You could always keep him, put him on the DL to start the season, then add him back to the 40 man when ready. This front office is keen on roster manipulation and DFA’ing Phil Hughes would allow for the Twins to protect one extra player from the Rule 5 Draft.
 
Arbitration:
Salaries are from MLB Trade Rumors Projections**
 
3B/SS/2B Eduardo Escobar – Tender @ $4.9 M. Escobar is the easiest decision in arbitration. He has proven two separate times that he is more than capable of stepping in as an everyday player if needed. Plus, we’ve learned that he is much better defensively at third base than he was at shortstop. Sano is headed towards surgery, and Eduardo Escobar provides excellent insurance at that position and can also play shortstop and second base if needed. He is another great clubhouse guy that gives a team excellent production as a utility infielder.
 
SP Kyle Gibson – Tender @ $5.3 M. In July it looked like there was 0 chance Gibson would be back in 2018. Now, at the very least the Twins have to tender him as he has become an asset with some value. I’m perfectly fine with the team going in with him as the 5th starter or even trying him out in a bullpen role. However, my number 1 choice would be to shop Kyle Gibson and see if you can sell somewhat high on him. He has two years of arbitration left. In the second half Gibson had an ERA of 3.76, an xFIP of 3.63, and 8.22 K/9. His strong numbers were actually backed up by strong peripherals, which could mean that he has turned a corner and is just a late bloomer. I think it is more likely that he pitched a little over his head in the second half and the Twins would be wise to see what value he has.
 
SS/2B/LF – Ehire Adrianza – Tender @ $1.0 M. Adrianza was an excellent find by Falvey and Levine. Only 5 years removed from being a top 5 prospect in a strong Giants system, Adrianza is a plus defender with a lot of versatility. He also proved he can hit last season. He is a no brainer for the Twins at $1 Million and they are fortunate to have him under control for the next 3 seasons.
 
RP Ryan Pressly – Tender @ $1.6 M. Like Gibson, Pressly is another guy that saved his 2018 spot by a strong second half in 2017. Looking at the direction of the bullpen, there likely will only be room for 1 of him and Duffey, and while Duffey was unusable down the stretch, Pressly looked like he was back in peak form. I think you have to bring him back at $1.6 Million and hope his second half carries over into 2018. If it doesn’t, the Twins can always cut bait midseason at that low of a number.
 
OF/DH Robbie Grossman – Tender @ $2.4 M & Trade. Grossman might not have a spot on the 2018 Twins, but I still think they have to tender him because he is enough of an asset that they shouldn’t just let him walk away. If the Twins can find a trade match, I think that they will definitely do it, or else he should be back as a bench bat.
 
SP Trevor May – Tender @ $0.6 M. There is a lot of unknown here with May coming off of Tommy John Surgery. But all signs point to him competing for a rotation spot again and I know that Twins fans are very curious to see him get a chance in the rotation again. If he can regain his 2015 form, he should be a solid #3 or #4 starter. May isn’t really all that interesting for a tender vs. non-tender perspective as he is a lock at this low of a number, but he is very interesting from the standpoint of potential role and production come 2018.
Trades:
Trade Kennys Vargas Rights to Korea: I’ve heard rumors about this and more likely than not Vargas is not back with the Twins next season. I’m not sure exactly how this type of thing works, but Korea could be a logical path for Vargas. If he has any value on the trade market, I’d like to see the Twins explore that path as well.
 
Trade SS/2B Nick Gordon, RHP Felix Jorge, RHP Kohl Stewart, and OF LaMonte Wade to the Pirates for SP Gerrit Cole: Honestly I have no clue if this would be enough to get Gerrit Cole from Pittsburgh. I guess there is truly no way of knowing because we don’t know what the market will dictate. Sometimes I feel as if this is a lot to give up for two years of Cole, and other times I feel like it wouldn’t be enough. So I go back and forth. What I do know is that the Twins should seriously consider acquiring Gerrit Cole or Chris Archer. I would think that Nick Gordon would be an appropriate headliner for either deal, and there is enough potential in Wade, Jorge, and Stewart that I think that alone is an enticing package. The Twins will not (and should not) be offering 7 years and $150 million for Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta. So the only ways they are going to truly bolster the rotation is via development and trades. This would still leave Romero and Gonsalves knocking on the doors, and give the Twins a legitimate looking rotation that could contend.
Would this be enough to get Cole? Would you do it or does it shorten the Twins window too much? Interested to hear your thoughts
 
Trade OF/DH Robbie Grossman & RHP Tyler Duffey to the Rays for LHP Resly Linares: I don’t know how much value Grossman and Duffey have on the market. I would likely tender Grossman, but shop him to see if we could get something for him. When it comes to Duffey, there is no way that both him and Pressly are back for the Twins. They would just be taking up spots that could be better occupied by guys like Reed, Jay, Burdi, etc. I think Pressly played his way into one more shot while Duffey played his way out of one. On the flip side, both Duffey and Grossman have had success as big leaguers for the Twins. Duffey was the Twins best starter during the playoff push of 2015 and Grossman has been a competent player that gets on base at a very high clip. I would guess if either is traded, it would be for young lottery type pitching. Linares is an intriguing lefty prospect in the Rays system who is not super highly regarded, but could be a lottery ticket type of guy. And hey, Robbie hit a homer in Tampa this year so maybe they like him. Yes I am grasping at straws as people rarely report on Robbie Grossman steam. Long story short, I don’t see Duffey and Grossman back, but I wouldn’t just give both of them away.
Free Agency Signings:
Resign RP Matt Belisle to a 1 year, $4 million contract: I would be fine with Matt Belisle coming back as the teams 4th or 5th reliever next season. He was very good down the stretch and apparently had a good impact behind the scenes. That being said, if someone offers him 2 years and $10 million, I tell him thank you for everything he did and good luck. But if the Twins can get him on a 1 year, $3 to 5 million deal, I think he is worth bringing back, but not a top priority.
 
Sign RP Wade Davis to a 5 year, $77 million contract: I know this would be very Un-Twins like. But I think they at least need to look into make a run at Wade Davis. They could probably get him right at $15 a year if you are willing to throw in a 5th year (Age 36 Season). I do it if it stays under 5 and $80. If the market inflates over that, I back away. Making a large investment in an elite reliever is a much better use of $15 million than continually signing the Ricky Nolasco’s and Phil Hughes of the world. Davis would not block anyone in the bullpen, and he automatically gives the Twins a lockdown anchor that they would need for the foreseeable future. If the last couple of postseasons have taught us anything, it is that a lockdown relief pitcher is a necessity now (See Chapman, Miller, Davis circa 2015, Jansen, etc.) to compete in the postseason. The Twins have a few darts like Jay, Burdi, and Reed that could hit the big leagues soon, but they are all far from a sure thing and why not add one guy who is exactly that for the next 5 years that the Twins plan to compete?
 
Sign RP Jake McGee to a 3 Year, $18 million contract: This move, or a move like this, will almost certainly happen for the Twins this offseason. They will likely find someone in the Addison Reed, Jake McGee, Bryan Shaw category of 7th to 8th inning guys and give them 3 years at $5 to $8 million a year. I like McGee in part because he is a lefty, and the Twins have been extra thin there. McGee also has had a consistent track record and tends to fly under the national spotlight. This is another spot where the market could dictate who the Twins turn too, but expect a move of this ilk this no matter what else they do.
 
Sign OF/DH Jose Bautista to a 1 Year, $6 million contract: Let’s finally get Joey Bats to Target Field in a home uniform. While there is evidence that he might in fact be cooked, to me he would be worth a flier to see if he could stick at DH. Bautista solves a couple of problems for the Twins in a potential low risk, high reward deal. The Twins could stand to add a right handed bat and a DH who mashes. The worst that could happen is Bautista hits .190 in April in May and the Twins DFA him and cut their losses. However, if Bautista somehow finds his groove again, the Twins lineup could look extra deadly. Plus, Bautista won’t need to hit cleanup and he’d likely be the 6 or 7 hitter. If Bautista somehow can land a deal for $12 to $15 million, then the Twins can shut down my long-time dream. There are a lot of guys that could come in with a similar role as this like Napoli, Mark Reynolds, Lucas Duda, etc.
 
40 Man Roster Additions:
1B Lewin Diaz
LHP Stephen Gonsalves
RHP Zack Littell
LHP Lewis Thorpe
RHP Nick Burdi
RHP Jake Reed
RHP Luke Bard
LHP Mason Melotakis
 
Gonsalves, Diaz, Littell, and Thorpe are all legitimate prospects with a lot of value that are virtual locks to be added. I think Bard, Reed, and Burdi would all get selected in the rule 5 draft. All 3 could contribute to the Twins in 2018. I’m admittedly higher on Burdi than most still are, because I think the ceiling could be ridiculous. But it would be extremely easy for a team to hide him this year as he returns from Tommy John surgery. They could just stash him on the DL, and not have to return him to the Twins. I am not giving up on Burdi until after we see him pitch in a Twins uniform. Unfortunately, that might be late 2018 at the earliest. I am a bit surprised we didn’t see both Reed and Bard in 2017 with all the relievers the Twins went through. Like Burdi, I would like to see them as major league options for 2018. Reed and Bard throw mid 90’s, while Burdi throws in the upper 90’s. All have a strong track record of missing bats (Although Reed doesn’t have the powerful K numbers of the other two). These are the types of guys the Twins will want to keep around and build a future bullpen off of. I would also add Melotakis to round out the 40 man. He should get a shot at some point, and I’m giving him the nod over Buddy Boshers for now.
 
Opening Day 25 Man Roster
Rotation
RHP Gerrit Cole - $7.5 M
RHP Jose Berrios - $0.55 M
RHP Ervin Santana - $13.5 M
RHP Kyle Gibson - $5.3M
RHP Trevor May - $0.6 M
Total: $27.45 M
 
Bullpen
RHP Wade Davis - $15.4 M
LHP Jake McGee - $6.0 M
RHP Trevor Hildenberger - $0.55 M
LHP Taylor Rogers - $0.55 M
RHP Matt Belisle - $4.0 M
RHP Ryan Pressly - $1.6 M
RHP Alan Busenitz - $0.55 M
Total: $28.65 M
 
Lineup
1 CF Byron Buxton - $0.56 M
2 1B Joe Mauer - $23.0 M
3 2B Brian Dozier - $9.0 M
4 3B Miguel Sano - $0.6 M
5 LF Eddie Rosario - $0.58 M
6 SS Jorge Polanco - $0.55 M
7 DH Jose Bautista - $6.0 M
8 RF Max Kepler - $0.55 M
9 C Jason Castro - $8.5 M
Total: $49.34 M
 
Bench
C/1B/LF Mitch Garver - $0.55 M
SS/2B/LF Ehire Adrianza - $1.0 M
3B/2B/SS Eduardo Escobar - $4.9 M
OF Zack Granite - $0.55 M
Total: $7.00 M
 
Other
SP Phil Hughes - $13.2 M
1B Byung Ho Park - $3.0 M
Total: $16.2 M
 
Total Salary for Opening Day 25 Man Roster: $128.72 M
 
I really don’t think that $129 M in payroll is some absurd unreachable number for the Twins, especially with potentially $50 M coming off next offseason. $129 M is under the average salary in baseball and would have ranked 17th in major league baseball last season. Not ridiculous or out of the question for a mid market team like the Twins, and they are not committed to big money long-term deals to anyone besides Wade Davis
 
Remaining 40 Man Roster
LHP Adalberto Mejia
LHP Stephen Gonsalves
LHP Dietrich Enns
RHP Aaron Slegers
LHP Gabriel Moya
LHP Lewis Thorpe
RHP Fernando Romero
RHP John Curtiss
RHP Nick Burdi
RHP Luke Bard
RHP Zack Littell
LHP Mason Melotakis
RHP Jake Reed
RHP J.T. Chargois
1B Lewin Diaz
 
A lot of pitchers, I know. I don’t see a ton of position players in the system that the Twins need to add to the 40 man and protect. I think at some point there will be another move to add a couple of position players early in the season.
 
Top Prospects Going into the season / 2018 Starting Level / ETA
1. SS Royce Lewis – A – 2020
2. LHP Stephen Gonsalves – AAA – 2018
3. RHP Fernando Romero – AAA – 2018
4. 1B/OF Brent Rooker – A+ – 2019
5. SS Wander Javier – Rk – 2021
6. OF Alex Kirilloff – Rk – 2020
7. RHP Blayne Enlow – Rk – 2021
8. 1B Lewin Diaz – A+ – 2019
9. LHP Tyler Jay – AAA – 2018
10. RHP Brusdar Graterol – Rk – 2021
 
 
2018 Next guys called up Pecking order / ETA
 
1. LHP Adalberto Mejia: Mejia has almost a full year of MLB experience under his belt now. At times it was clear that he was not ready for it yet, but all and all had a lot of positives in his rookie season. Under my projected roster, they wouldn’t have a roster spot for Mejia, and that is okay. There is nothing wrong with Mejia getting more seasoning in Rochester and then coming back to the big leagues at some point during the season. They second the Twins need a spot start, an injury to a pitcher occurs, or the bullpen gets overused, Mejia will be the first call up.
ETA: April
 
2. RHP John Curtiss: Saw limited action last season, but if he continues to pitch well as the closer in Rochester, he will inevitably bang on the door of the bullpen at Target Field.
ETA: April
 
3. RHP J.T. Chargois: He would be higher up if I knew what was going on with this injury he has. I hope for his sake he is able to get healthy because he certainly has the stuff to be part of the future of the Twins bullpen.
ETA: May
 
4. LHP Stephen Gonsalves: This will depend on two things:
1. How well Gonsalves pitches in AAA to begin the season. He pitched alright there to finish 2017, but one horrendous outing has skewed his end numbers.
2. What ends up happening with the Twins rotation. This will determine when an opportunity is available. There are many unknowns in the rotation, and my guess is that the front office has a process mapped out of when they want Gonsalves to be in the MLB.
I see Gonsalves pitching in the rotation by the midway point of the season.
ETA: June
 
5. RHP Jake Reed: Reed has had an excellent minor league track record outside of 2015 in Chattanooga where he struggled in his promotion. He doesn’t necessarily have as high of a ceiling as Jay and Burdi, but he might be the safer bet and deserves a chance.
ETA: June
 
6. RHP Nick Burdi: I feel like this is the third year in a row that I’ve predicted Nick Burdi will be a Twin by July. I should probably stop doing that. Admittedly, I’m not too sure on the timeline of his Tommy John Surgery. Of course he will need to throw well in the minors, and also come back from the surgery well to be in a position to be with the team this season. I could be overly optimistic on Burdi, as I’ve been known to be in the past. I could also be completely wrong about a realistic timeline in the return from Tommy John Surgery. I am very optimistic about his ceiling and potential, and just hope he can stay healthy for a couple of years to continue to develop.
ETA: July
 
7. LHP Dietrich Enns: Enns had a cup of coffee with the Twins last season in Milwaukee. It was a short start, but didn’t go horribly, just a high pitch count. He’ll be 27 in May, so it would be logical to think that this will be the year that the Twins want to see what they have with him over an extended period, and if he is worth a 40 man spot next season. I don’t have deep knowledge of his stuff, but I would think his ceiling is a #5 starter or a good 6th to 7th inning guy.
ETA: July
 
8. RHP Luke Bard: I’m very curious about Bard. I know he was a comp round A pick in 2012 and was set back by injuries. What is so impressive about him is his massive jump in strikeouts with 99 in 65.1 innings between AA and AAA this last season. Could this be that he has figured something out? I think it is worth finding out. He certainly was drafted in a high position with potential.
ETA: August
 
9. LHP Tyler Jay: He was the number 5 pick just two and a half years ago, and his stock has dipped because of his move to the bullpen. But he has a chance to be a very good reliever one day and it would be a lot of fun to see him come on strong again this year and play his way into the Twins bullpen down the stretch. He was promising in the fall league at times, but his numbers are skewed by two very bad outings. Like I have been with Burdi, I might be too optimistic by saying he has a chance to be a part of the bullpen for the stretch run in 2018, but he will be 24 in April and provided he stays healthy, should progress nicely in the minor leagues.
ETA: September
 
10. RHP Fernando Romero: Romero will be 23 and looks to have conquered AA. It will be interesting to see how he fairs in AAA this season. If he performs well, we could see him by mid summer. Out of all the Twins pitchers in the system, he probably has the most ace type stuff. I think we see him at some point in 2018, but to be safe I am saying he is a September call-up.
ETA: September
 
We will also likely see the following players at some point in 2018:
LHP Mason Melotakis, RHP Aaron Slegers, LHP Gabriel Moya, RHP Phil Hughes, and DH/1B Byung Ho Park
Moves I didn’t make but would explore:
Trade for Kelvin Herrera: In my very first blueprint, I have the Twins trading for Kelvin Herrera. However, I ended up taking it off because there is so much uncertainty there. How is his forearm? He seemed to struggle down the stretch (especially against the Twins). What would it take to get Herrera? On one hand, I would think he would require a pretty good return based on his track record over the years. But he is also a one year rental due $8 million and an injury concern. Would the Royals take a Brandon Kintzler return type prospect plus a Kennys Vargas for him? Or would they aim higher? Could they want to hold onto him to reestablish some of his value and then shop him at the deadline? It is also tough with the Royals being in the division. Overall, I am just way too uncertain about the return he would command, and it would take away $8 million of spending money for the Twins. But hey, they paid Hector Santiago $8 million last season and nobody seemed to care. Bottom line: I would like to see the Twins explore the reliever trade market this offseason, and Herrera could be a candidate if the demand isn’t too high and the Royals are fully ready to rebuild and cut money.
 
Extensions, Extensions, Extensions: I also am pretty unsure on what fair value is on these extensions, but I would explore them on many guys. I found it really interesting the extensions that Seth posted in his offseason blueprint. I remember thinking that I would do every one of those. I don’t think it is realistic that they are able to get them all done. But a doing a couple of them would be nice, specifically because they could extend there window beyond the 4 years they have of team control with there most crucial pieces. Buxton, Sano, and Berrios would be at the top of the list for me in this process. I think Buxton being the top priority would be pretty commonly agreed upon by Twins fans. Berrios is unique because he does have 5 years of team control left, so the deal would likely be for 7 or 8 years, which would be a lot of term for a young pitcher. I would still approach his representatives about it. The next tier would be Kepler, Rosario, and Polanco. Polanco also has 5 years, and I think there is a lot of uncertainty still surrounding him. I don’t think after the next 3 years he is the shortstop anymore, and he may end of being a trade chip somewhere down the road. Rosario has proven to be unreliable at times but an MVP caliber player at other times. We still aren’t sure if Kepler will be more than a platoon type player. So there is certainly risk involved, but I would consider all three of those guys because in order for the Twins to be a championship contender someday, the secondary guys will have to be solid contributors as well. In a separate category I put both Brian Dozier and Joe Mauer. The Twins would be smart to explore both trading Dozier and extending him. If the Twins can get him slightly below market value for 4 more years ($60 million or so), they should. But I also feel comfortable going into the season with him, and extending him the qualifying offer next season knowing that Polanco, Javier, Lewis, (and Gordon if my trade doesn’t work out) are all going to factor into the infield equation someday. In terms of Joe Mauer, maybe they offer him a 2 year team friendly extension, but I might be more inclined to wait on that with Brent Rooker waiting in the wings and Sano’s potentially switch to first base at some point.
 
Trade Questions - Explore the Trade Value on Anyone Not Named Buxton, Sano, or Berrios
- Is there a team that will give up a ton for one year of Brian Dozier?
- Can Nick Gordon be the center of a deal to land an ace? (See above trade)
- Could either Polanco or Rosario be used to upgrade pitching, and then be replaced via free agency?
- Do you sell high on Eduardo Escobar or Kyle Gibson for bullpen help or young pitching?
- Can Robbie Grossman or Kennys Vargas net a lottery ticket pitcher? (See above trade)
- Does Ervin Santana garner a younger, higher ceiling pitcher that is major league ready?
- Are there any prospects that another team values much more than the Twins do?
 
Thank you to anyone who has gotten this far in reading. I’ve been casually working on this blueprint ever since the Twins season ended and have amended it as the early off-season moves have come in. Overall, I think the Twins have a lot of opportunities this offseason and feel more confident than ever that the front office will be active. That doesn’t necessarily mean that they will make a ton of aggressive moves, but I think they will be in the conversation for some guys that the Twins might not have sniffed around in the Terry Ryan regime. It should be a great future, and has been a heck of a turnaround from 12 months ago when I posted a blueprint essentially telling the Twins to tear the whole damn thing down.

Back on June 11, the Minnesota Twins were defeated by the Boston Red Sox 15-4, giving up 10 runs over the final two innings to let an otherwise close game get out of reach.
 
It wasn’t just another loss in another losing season. It was noteworthy because it gave fans their first look at J. T. Chargois, a highly-touted, hard-throwing pitching prospect from the 2012 draft. Chargois is one of many collegiate relief pitchers the Twins have been stockpiling with high picks in the amateur draft over the past several years, and became the first of these picks to make his major league debut.
 
Twins manager Paul Molitor said before the game that he would look for a low-pressure situation in which to ease Chargois into his role. It made sense. Chargois was coming off of two lost seasons to elbow surgery and had pitched on back to back days only once in 2016 to that point. The late innings of a lopsided game seemed like a good spot to give him his first appearance. Any runs Chargois might surrender would have little impact on the final result. And surrender them he did—he faced eight batters, six reached base, and he was charged with 5 runs in 2/3 of an inning.
 
And just as quickly as he had been called up to the majors, Chargois was immediately optioned back to AAA after the game.
 
Introduction
 
Chargois was drafted in 2012 out of Rice University with the 72nd overall pick, one of five college relievers selected among the Twins’ first eight picks that year. The Twins then drafted heavily again in this way in 2014. Obtaining more college relievers with high velocity and expectations of much quicker promotions was welcome news for many Twins fans, who were enduring a string of losing seasons in which their team would finish near the bottom in many pitching categories. The 2014 season was one in which division rival Kansas City was building a pennant winner around its overpowering, upper-90s-throwing bullpen arms. Twins used the 42nd overall pick in June 2014 on Nick Burdi, a relief pitcher from Louisville who could reach 100 mph on the radar gun.
 
But the 2014 draft was two years ago, and the 2012 draft was four years ago already. The Twins bullpen in 2016 is still relying on softer-throwing minor league signings made during the offseason. Where have all the college relievers gone?
 
From reading the discussion boards at Twins Daily this season, I noticed others asking this same question. TwinsDaily writer Seth Stohs had an article back in December on the long list of college relief pitchers the Twins have drafted over the past decade. Other than that, references were scarce; I couldn’t find much (or didn't conduct the right searches) about how college relief pitchers became major league relief pitchers. Are the Twins promoting their relief prospects too slowly? That was my main question, but I had some other questions too. I decided to frame the questions as an academic type of study. I wanted answers with Chargois and Burdi in mind, two guys who were selected with second round picks and have been indisputably developed for the purpose of becoming major league relief pitchers.
 
The natural response to the question of whether the Twins are promoting these pitchers too slowly is: They are promoted when they are promoted. Hard to argue with that explanation, but for many people, it’s not good enough.
 
I wanted to compare how other organizations promote pitchers with profiles similar to Chargois and Burdi through their minor league systems. My intent was not to perform any sophisticated statistical analyses or conclusively answer any big philosophical questions, nor do I consider roster issues, or a pitcher’s velocity or pitch repertoire, or any qualitative information that might affect a player’s progress or a team’s evaluation of it. I just wanted to dig up some data, present it, and see if it was saying anything.
 
I settled on three hypotheses or questions I wanted to test. First, that the Twins have drafted more of these types of pitchers than most other organizations; second, that the Twins promote these pitchers more slowly than other organizations; and third, that it makes no difference to their careers when these pitchers make their first major league appearance, whether it be a critical situation or low leverage.
 
Also, I believed that there are more efficient ways to obtain strong bullpen arms than targeting them in the amateur draft, but I chose not to address this last question. A good rundown of the best relievers the Twins have developed over the years is here, and they are not primarily relief pitchers drafted from college.
 
On the initial three hypotheses, I found the answers mixed. But I did discover a couple of things that surprised me.
 
Methods
 
In order to arrive objectively at a set of pitchers to examine, I established some rules. First, I would define what a college relief pitcher is. Then I would set some conditions for which pitchers from the draft were eligible for inclusion into the sample, and finally, I would need to decide on how to measure the promotions of these pitchers once they were in a team's minor league system.
 
Above all, I was interested in success stories. Again, I was targeting players who were drafted as college relievers, who pitched in relief in the minors, and who eventually reached the major leagues as relievers for the team that drafted them. I wanted to know what characteristics these ballplayers had in common, and if Chargois, Burdi and other Twins relief pitchers shared those characteristics.
 
Defining a college relief pitcher. I didn’t want starting pitchers in the group. During his college career, J.T. Chargois appeared in 47 games as a pitcher and started only 2 of them. (Note: I would use the Baseball Cube for retrieving college stats, and then verify these stats against other sources when possible.) I was comfortable calling Chargois a college relief pitcher. Other times it was less clear. Logan Darnell appeared in 43 games—strictly in relief—in his first two seasons at Kentucky. In his third and final season, he made 11 starts. Was Darnell a college reliever? Did the Twins consider him one? I wasn’t sure.
 
After browsing through the records of many former college pitchers who were selected in the draft, I settled on the following rules. A college relief pitcher would be someone who:
pitched in relief in a majority of games his final college season; or, pitched in relief in a majority of all college pitching appearances; and
pitched fewer than 200 innings total as a college pitcher.
There is nothing special about these rules; I thought they simply made sense for what I wanted to look at. Unfortunately those rules created a couple of odd exclusions, including Chance Ruffin, who was the closer for the Texas Longhorns during the 2010 NCAA season but who made 28 starts in his two prior seasons at Texas, exceeding the innings limit. Also disqualified as a relief pitcher here was Madison Boer, who the Twins drafted at the end of the 2nd round in 2011 but who also barely exceeded the innings limit (according to Baseball Cube). It's also not impossible that a pitcher or two in this study might have been unintentionally mis-categorized, but if so, it was without bias.
 
Eligibility for sample. Having defined a college reliever, I then decided I would only look at picks in the first and second rounds, including compensation picks. This would include Chargois and Burdi in my set (but not Darnell, who in 2010 was a sixth round pick).
 
I settled on the drafts from the years 2004-2012, however. This meant I would have Chargois, but not Burdi, who was drafted in 2014. I decided that for any players drafted 2013 or later, their teams wouldn’t have the benefit of development time. Though this endpoint excludes Burdi, I will bring him into the discussion later. I had also supposed that Chargois, a mid-second round pick in 2012, might be the final pitcher in the set chronologically, but my first surprise was that there was a college relief pitcher drafted later than Chargois in the second round who has been in the major leagues for several seasons now.
 
The 2004 draft was my other endpoint, or beginning point, because in my initial browsing, I discovered that Huston Street was part of that draft, and he is an example of the successful type of college pitcher I imagine the Twins are hoping to develop with these picks. I also liked the 2004 draft for the irrational reasons that it was the first draft held following the publication of Michael Lewis's Moneyball, it was the draft of Glen Perkins, and also the draft of Matt Bush, the first overall pick that year, selected as a shortstop but now pitching effectively in relief with the Texas Rangers. (Perkins and Bush are not otherwise part of this study.)
 
As I was finishing this project, I became aware that in 2002 the Twins drafted Jesse Crain in the 2nd round with the 61st overall pick. Crain then debuted for the Twins two seasons later. Crain would have qualified for this list had I broadened the year range back to 2002. But by that time, I did not want to expand the set of pitchers based on this selected piece of information. However, like Burdi, I will bring Crain into the discussion at various points of interest.
 
How to measure the speed of promotions? I thought it would be reasonable and convenient to use innings pitched to measure a pitcher’s time spent at each minor league level. Innings pitched has the advantage of familiarity over other measures like batters faced, game appearances, or even calendar days spent at a level. I would track the number of innings pitched up until the pitcher's major league debut.
 
I also began with the intention of tracking minor league performance, such as strikeout and walk rates, but as I went on, I felt less of a need for this. Sample sizes are too small for this exercise, and my own judgment about performance would be too uninformed and subjective. Here is an example. An argument could be made that Nick Burdi, compared with his stats in college, struggled with control (a higher BB/9) at his first minor league assignment in A ball at Cedar Rapids. Indeed, I believe the Twins even stated this. However, Huston Street, with the Oakland organization, also struggled with control in this same way (with a higher BB/9) at his first minor league assignment. I began the study wanting to measure performance, but when I considered things like park bias, and sample size, I decided it was not significant. Huston Street pitched only 2 innings in AAA, after all. Whatever his walk or strikeout rate in AAA, it wouldn't be as significant to me as the number of innings he pitched. I reasoned that Oakland would not have promoted Street after a mere 2 innings in AAA if they did not feel he was ready.
 
In the end, I was comfortable bypassing statistics altogether and using the promotion itself as the main indicator for satisfactory performance.
 
I did not account for innings pitched in exhibitions, minor league postseasons, or independent leagues. Only innings pitched in the affiliated minor leagues were part of this study; in other words, the innings pitched total you would see if you checked MiLB.com.
 
Likewise, other than Chargois, I had very little information on injuries for these pitchers, and I simply used their presence in games as an indicator of health.
 
The College Reliever Search
 
Using the criteria above, I found a total of 50 college relief pitchers drafted in the first or second round from the years 2004 to 2012.
 
Have the Twins drafted more college relief pitchers than other organizations? This was my first hypothesis, and from this pool of relievers, I would conclude yes. From this set of 50, the Twins drafted five college relief pitchers within the first two rounds between 2004 and 2012. The Dodgers also drafted five. The Diamondbacks and the Cardinals each drafted four, and no other team accounts for more than three such pitchers.
 
However, I determined that 27 of these 50 relief pitchers were converted to starters early in their minor league careers, or were given enough starts to cast doubt on whether they were drafted with the strict intent of becoming major league relief pitchers. For example, Mason Melotakis, drafted in the 2nd round of 2012, met the conditions of a college relief pitcher, but he made 18 starts in A ball to begin the 2013 season. Carlos Gutierrez, drafted in 2008, had a similar profile as a potential starter. Starting games in the minor leagues made Melotakis, Gutierrez and the others distinct enough from Chargois and Burdi that I excluded them from my set.
 
Removing those 27 converted starters from the original set of 50, and removing four others who did not sign a contract (including Josh Fields, who is actually counted twice in the set of 50 as he was drafted in consecutive years), I arrived at a set of 19 college relievers who were drafted in the first two rounds and then used almost exclusively as relief pitchers in the minors.
 
The Twins drafted 3 of these 19 players to become relievers exclusively, while no other team drafted more than two. Setting aside Melotakis and Gutierrez, here are the three Twins pitchers who would make up part of this group of 19 (Table 1):
 
Table 1: College relief pitchers drafted by the Twins between 2004-2012 in the first or second round, who were developed exclusively as relief pitchers in the minor leagues


 
Because I was only interested in college relievers who have reached the majors with their original teams, I sorted these 19 relief pitchers into even smaller sets: three who were traded to another organization while still in the minors, including Bullock (and also Josh Fields again, who I will mention later); three who retired or were released by their original clubs before making it to the majors; and two who are still in the minors with their original clubs, including Luke Bard. That left 11 left over. The remaining 11 pitchers were the ones I was looking for—college relief pitchers who made it to the major leagues as relievers with the club that originally drafted them.
 
These were the guys who again, like Chargois and Burdi, were selected with high draft picks, developed through the minors almost exclusively as relief pitchers, and made their debuts with the teams that drafted them.
 
Table 2 introduces these 11 pitchers, listed chronologically by year drafted and draft position: Bill Bray (drafted as a Montreal Expo), Huston Street, Craig Hansen, Joey Devine, Chris Perez, Eddie Kunz, Ryan Perry, Daniel Schlereth, Drew Storen, J. T. Chargois, and Paco Rodriguez.
 
Table 2: College relief pitchers drafted between 2004-2012 in the first or second round, who were developed exclusively as relief pitchers in the minor leagues, and who debuted in the major leagues as relief pitchers for the teams that drafted them


 
By collecting data from this set of 11 relief pitchers, I could now look at innings pitched to test my second and main hypothesis, about whether the Twins are promoting college relief prospects more slowly than other organizations. I got my answer, but found that the question was a little more complicated than that.
 
Before collecting this data, however, I wanted to get a sense of how well these pitchers have performed in MLB. A couple of these pitchers are well known, while a few of them I had not heard of or had forgotten about. Table 3 lists these same pitchers, tracking the pitcher by age and the fWAR accumulated in the majors at that age, through the end of the 2015 season:
 
Table 3: Age of relief pitchers per season, and accumulated fWAR for that season


 
There are some problems with using fWAR and dividing by seasons played to put a value on a player, but I was only looking for approximations. Additionally, when evaluated this way, I found these pitchers could be put into three natural groupings: a very good group, an above average group, and a below average group.
 
The following data re-sorted and displayed in a bar graph (Figure 1) will illustrate these three groupings better. The top and bottom of each grey bar represent the highest and lowest season fWAR for each pitcher. The black line near the middle of each bar represents the pitcher’s career average fWAR. The league average fWAR for a relief pitcher is 0.16, indicated by a dashed line.
 
Figure 1: Relief pitcher high and low season fWAR, represented as a bar graph, relievers sorted by general effectiveness


 
The first three bars in order are Huston Street, Drew Storen, and Chris Perez. These three make up what I considered the very good group. The next three bars are the above average group of Paco Rodriguez, Joey Devine, and Bill Bray. The last group of bars includes Ryan Perry, Daniel Schlereth, Eddie Kunz, Craig Hansen, and J. T. Chargois.
 
The pitchers will be sorted in this order in all of the bar graphs to follow.
 
I put Chris Perez with the first group based on his career saves total, and because Perez’s fWAR was hurt by his final two seasons. bWAR treats Perez much better than fWAR. Perhaps Perez would fit better in the middle group, but I chose to include him in the top group. Perez also was named to two All Star games.
 
You can also see Jesse Crain’s performance in this graph. The first bar represents his seasons with the Twins, which would fit neatly with the above average group of relievers. Crain’s second, taller bar represents his full career, including his final three seasons with the White Sox.
 
Results and Discussion
 
My second hypothesis was that college relief pitchers in the Twins system were promoted more slowly, as measured by innings pitched, than the pitchers in the other organizations. Note that this innings pitched data is not intended to differentiate across seasons, only minor league levels.
 
For each of the 11 relief pitchers in the final set, Table 4 lists the number of innings each pitched at each minor league level prior to their major league debuts:
 
Table 4: Relief pitchers, innings pitched per minor league level


 
Below is the same information presented in bar graph format (Figure 2). Already, one or two things start to stand out.
 
Figure 2: Relief pitchers, innings pitched per minor league level, represented as bar graphs


 
The first thing that stood out to me is the tallness of the bar representing Chargois. Chargois pitched more minor league innings prior to his debut than all but Perez.
 
Another clear bit of data that stood out is the number of innings Chargois pitched in rookie league, which I generally thought to be for players coming out of high school. All six of the very good and above average relief pitchers skipped the rookie level. At first, I thought that the Twins not having a short season A- team might have narrowed a choice of assignment to either rookie level or A level, but each of the top three relievers pitched in organizations with a short season A- level team, yet were assigned directly to A level.
 
However, looking at Chargois and the top three relievers, what also stands out is a pattern of promotions those pitchers were given through the minors. Each of the top three of Street, Storen and Perez began their careers at A ball, pitched at AA, and then at AAA. Storen also made a stop at the high A+ level. Each of the top three spent their longest minor league assignment, measured by innings pitched, at AA. On its face, it looks significant to me that this progression of promotions is shared among the top three relievers, and I find it encouraging that Chargois also followed this progression. What’s more, none of the other seven relievers in the set shows this progression in just this way. On the contrary, the promotion patterns of the others seem haphazard in comparison.
 
The most common characteristic shared among all the pitchers is pitching at the AA level. Ten of the eleven pitchers in this set pitched in AA prior to their major league debuts. The top three were then promoted to AAA and promoted to the majors from there. However, six of the other seven were promoted to the majors from AA.
 
Nine of the 11 pitchers prior to their debuts, including Chargois, pitched their highest number of innings in AA. Perhaps these organizations see AA as the most important level for these pitching prospects.
 
But for how long did these other pitchers stay in MLB after their debuts? Here is a chart with an additional bar to represent major league innings pitched following each pitcher’s debut:
 
Figure 3: Relief pitchers, length of first stay in major leagues, represented as a bar graph


 
Again, Chargois stands apart from this group in a few respects. His initial stay in the majors was very brief and fits more with the bottom of the group or relievers than the top group.
 
The table below shows the number of major league game appearances and innings pitched for each pitcher following their initial call up (Table 5):
 
Table 5: Relief pitchers, number of game appearances and innings pitched following MLB debut


 
The best three pitchers had three of the four longest stints in the major leagues. Street was with the team from Opening Day, and Storen and Perez were each called up in the middle of May. Bill Bray was called up in June and then traded in July. Paco Rodriguez was a September call up, then broke camp with the Dodgers the following spring. Only Joey Devine was demoted shortly after his first call up.
 
Leverage of First Appearances
 
Does the leverage index of a debut appearance make a difference?
 
I decided to look at the leverage index of the first three major league appearances of each reliever (Table 6). Approximately, low leverage is a number under 0.85, medium leverage is between 0.85 and 2.00, and high leverage is anything higher than 2.00:
 
Table 6: Relief pitchers, leverage index (LI) of first three major league appearances following first call up


 
Most of the relievers did indeed debut in low leverage situations, if not quite blowout losses as Chargois did. In fact, Huston Street’s first three appearances were also fairly late in blowout games (one win, two losses).
 
The big difference between Street and Chargois is that Street eventually took over the closer role later in his rookie season, something Chargois seems unlikely to do.
 
The highest leverage debut appearance came from Joey Devine, who entered a game in the top of the 12th inning for the Braves. Devine’s appearance was rated a leverage of 2.31. Devine was one of Bobby Cox’s last options from a bullpen that appears to have been depleted from the previous couple of games. Devine pitched a scoreless top of the 12th, struck out trying to lay down a bunt with two strikes in the bottom of the 12th, then got into trouble in the top of the 13th before surrendering a grand slam and taking the loss.
 
Meanwhile, Bill Bray was credited with a win in his debut appearance—without facing a batter. Pitching for the Nationals and manager Frank Robinson, Bray entered a game in Milwaukee in the bottom of the 8th inning with a runner on first and two outs, his team trailing by a run. He was brought in to face the rookie Prince Fielder, but the baserunner was caught stealing after the first pitch, ending the inning. The Nationals scored two runs in the top of the 9th and another pitcher replaced Bray to record a save. Bray got the win. The baserunner who was thrown out? Corey Koskie, in his final major league season.
 
Jesse Crain's MLB debut in August 2004 was in a 0.51 leverage situation, trailing by five runs in the 4th inning versus the Angels. Gardy pulled no punches with Crain’s next two appearances, however, with leverage indexes of 2.85 and 3.41 each, one of those being an extra-inning appearance.
 
As far as leverage is concerned, I am not sure there is enough information—here or anywhere, perhaps—to determine whether a debut appearance in a high leverage situation will impact a career negatively. Introducing a relief pitcher into a low leverage situation wouldn’t seem to hurt, however.
 
Other Pitchers
 
In the following bar graph are the innings pitched of some additional pitchers, including Twins, who were not part of the original set of 11. Each of these pitchers were also relief pitchers in college and developed as relief pitchers in the minors:
 
Figure 4: Relief pitchers, innings pitched in minor leagues, represented as a bar graph


 
The first three remain Street, Storen, and Perez. The next two pitchers, separated by extra space in the middle, are Chargois and Nick Burdi. Chargois’s stats are through his debut in June, while Burdi’s stats are through the end of 2015, before his 2016 season began.
 
The next group of six pitchers is made up of Twins. In order, from left: Billy Bullock, Luke Bard, Zack Jones, Jake Reed, Trevor Hildenberger, and Jesse Crain. The stats for Crain are up through his major league debut in 2004. The stats for the other five Twins pitchers run through the end of the 2015 season and do not include 2016.
 
The final bar at the far right is Josh Fields, who was just traded from Houston to the Los Angeles Dodgers, which is now his fourth professional organization. Briefly on Josh Fields: Fields was among the 19 relievers in the sample above who were college relievers and pitched almost exclusively in relief in the minors. Seattle drafted Fields with the 20th overall pick in 2008, and notice how they assigned him directly to AA, skipping the lower levels completely. After seeing the progression of promotions from the top three relievers, it’s not hard to imagine how Fields might have struggled in that first long minor league assignment, facing a quality of competition he was not yet suited for, and then having trouble catching up and meeting expectations from that point forward.
 
The second tallest bar, next to Fields, is Jesse Crain. You can see how the Twins promoted Crain comparatively slowly, but also according to the progression of minor league levels, without skipping a level. Crain spent the longest time in AAA, rather than AA.
 
Notes on other Twins college relief pitchers here include:
Billy Bullock, drafted in 2009, in the 2nd round with the 70th pick. Bullock was traded to Atlanta during spring training of 2011 after 107.2 minor league innings with the Twins. Bullock pitched in AAA for a couple of seasons and then was suspended in December 2012, effectively ending his career;
Luke Bard (2012), 1st round with the 42nd pick. Bard has been hit with significant injuries which perhaps prolonged his stay in A ball, but is currently healthy and pitching in high A;
Zack Jones (2012), 4th round, 130th overall. Looking at his stat line, Jones seemed to pitch well and even improve on his college numbers in 3 ½ seasons in the Twins system. Jones was then taken in the Rule 5 draft by Milwaukee in December 2015, but returned to the Twins in June. He is pitching in AA;
Jake Reed (2014), 5th round, 140th overall. Reed would not have made my original set, for pitching too many innings in college. Reed sputtered when promoted to AA in 2015, but is performing very close to his college numbers in AA now in 2016;
Trevor Hildenberger, 2014 draft, 22nd round, 650th overall. Successful late round picks are fun stories, and Hildenberger is finally getting some attention this season. Like the others in this study, he was a college reliever who was developed as a reliever in the minors. Like the other Twins, he has progressed through every level, and was promoted comparatively slowly to Street, Storen and Perez, which I attribute partly to his low draft selection and lower expectations. Hildenberger has dominated at AA this season;
Mason Melotakis. I did not include Melotakis in the bar graph above, because the games he pitched as a starter in 2013 would distort his innings compared with the others. He was drafted in 2012, 2nd round, 63rd overall. He has been promoted on the same schedule as the others, with stops at every minor league level, including rookie. Melotakis is also currently pitching in AA;
Pat Light. Light was drafted 37th overall in the 2012 draft. He was a starter in college and in the low minors, but has pitched exclusively as a reliever since being assigned to AA to begin 2015. At AA he has pitched 29.2 innings in 21 appearances, and at AAA he has pitched 64 innings in 51 appearances. He debuted with Boston on April 26 of this season and had two appearances before being demoted back to AAA;
Alan Busenitz. Busenitz was college relief pitcher drafted in the 25th round of the 2013 draft. He has pitched 254 innings in the minor leagues, mostly in relief.
All of which leads us to Nick Burdi.
 
On the surface, it looks as though Burdi and Chargois are being promoted on the same schedule as the other Twins college relief prospects. Here is the comparison of Burdi’s minor league innings through 2015 with the innings pitched by Street, Storen, Perez, Chargois, and Crain prior to their major league debuts:
 
Figure 5: Relief pitchers, comparison


 
Again, Street and Storen were promoted fairly quickly, while Perez and the three Twins were promoted less quickly, or even slowly, in comparison. Chargois and Crain pitched 75.2 and 85.2 innings apiece through the AA level prior to their debuts. Similarly, Burdi reached 84 innings through AA through the end of 2015 (not counting Burdi’s innings during Chattanooga’s 2015 postseason run).
 
Notice how Burdi skipped rookie ball and was assigned directly to A ball in 2014. As we’ve seen, for the Twins this is unusual. Remember too that Burdi struggled in the first half of 2015. After 30.1 innings in AA he was demoted back to A+ for a short time. Burdi then pitched 20 more innings in A+ before his promotion back to AA.
 
Now suppose that Burdi, instead of struggling in those first AA appearances, had pitched very well. Suppose he pitched well enough that instead of being demoted at the end of June, the Twins instead promoted him to AAA, and he pitched in AAA until the end of the Rochester season. Here’s how the graph might look under these new innings totals (FIG 6):
 
Figure 6: Relief pitchers, comparison alternative


 
This alternative promotion schedule is similar to Storen’s, especially through the end of AA. If the 33.1 innings pitched by Burdi after his demotion had all been credited to AAA instead of the lower levels, the AA to AAA innings ratio would have resembled Crain’s prior to Crain’s debut. It is not a stretch of the imagination to think that Burdi would have been considered for a September call-up last season had his season gone differently.
 
Wrapping up
 
Looking only at this small set of 11 pitchers, one can conclude that what is most important to the major league success of these pitchers is not the speed of their promotions, but instead is the logical progression of promotions the pitcher takes through the minor leagues. The pitching prospect is drafted and assigned to a minor league team, after which point the pitcher advances level by level, without skipping more than one level at a time, until AA is reached. A college relief pitcher on a successful development plan can skip the rookie level, but will not skip the AA level. At AA, the pitcher may be asked to pitch more innings than at any previous level. AA is then followed by a stop in AAA, which is followed by the pitcher’s MLB debut. The soundness of this progression is even more evident when looking at the major league careers of the college relief pitchers in this study who did not follow the progression (Figure 2). It’s true that better data and a larger sample of pitchers might alter how this conclusion currently looks, but for now I am standing behind it.
 
Unfortunately for this study, the relative slowness with which the Twins promote their relief prospects means that their success will not be apparent for a while. The quick promotion of Paco Rodriguez, selected 10 picks later than Chargois in 2012, does suggest that a late second round pick would not need to be promoted slowly out of fear of hurting the pitcher’s career. The Dodgers had already gotten more than three seasons and 1.2 fWAR from Rodriguez before trading him away during his age 24 season. With the slower timelines the Twins prefer, the Twins figure to miss out on the early value a college relief pitcher might present.
 
Only after I finished with the above data did I hunt for pitchers with similar profiles who fell outside of my set. This is when I discovered Jesse Crain, drafted in 2002. There are pitchers such as Jake Barrett in Arizona (2012, 3rd round) and Tony Zych in Seattle (2011, 4th round) who were taken a bit later in the draft and spent a great deal more time in the minors than Chargois, but there are also pitchers like Joe Smith (2006, 3rd round), who was promoted rapidly by the Mets and debuted in MLB with only 32.2 minor league innings behind him.
 
A similar, better study of minor league promotions would widen the sample of pitchers, and would also improve on the definition of college reliever as used here.
 
For now, it's reasonable to think that the Twins still expect a few of these relievers in their system to become valuable major league contributors. I would also conclude that most of these relievers have been promoted responsibly, if a little slowly. But again, too slowly? It's hard to know for sure. Chargois could probably have been called up by now. Once Burdi becomes healthy, the Twins will probably ask him to pitch more minor league innings than he really needs. And aside from Chargois and Burdi, there is still an abundance of young pitching prospects in the Twins system waiting for their chance. Perhaps half of the AA Chattanooga bullpen is made up of former college relief pitchers who could stand to use a promotion, but not to the majors yet—to AAA.

Recently I wrote that the Twins have an absolute slew of problems. They are doing quite a few things poorly, and everything is going negatively all at just about the same time. If we're going to try and attribute things to one place, we're probably running a fool's errand. What is true however, is that Terry Ryan's ineptitude has become more of a focus than ever.
Having taken over for his appointed heir, Bill Smith, Ryan has guided the Twins through some substantial rebuilding. The club had four straight 90 loss seasons, and in turn, drafted some pretty promising prospects. Seemingly close to the top of the mountain once again in 2015, the club just missed the playoffs in Paul Molitor's first year. Now roughly a month into the 2016 season, the head scratching when looking at Terry Ryan's plan has reached an all time high.
 
Let's be fair here, I have never been one to criticize Ryan. For the better part of his tenure with the Twins, I feel as though he's done a passable job. While you'd no doubt hope for something that pushes the needle a bit further, he's been a guy who is less than deserving of the distaste directed at him. He pulled off a heck of a deal to land Tommy Milone and I still believe that both the Yankees and Twins will benefit from the Aaron Hicks and John Ryan Murphy swap. He moved on from Francisco Liriano when he needed to, and Eduardo Escobar has been more than capable in return.
 
Outside of a few bright spots over the past few seasons however, Ryan has simply seen the game pass him by.
 
We can talk at length about whether or not Paul Molitor was a great hire for the manager role of the Twins, but it's far to early to tell how that narrative is going to play out. What we do know, is that Ryan was indebted to former manager Ron Gardenhire to a fault, and while the losing may not have been a result of his direct influence, he did little to change course either.
 
Coming into the 2016 season, Minnesota made little waves on the open market, and it was expected to be a sign of internal options rising to the top. Now well out of the division race and floundering below the .500 mark, Alex Meyer becomes just the first promotion that we can expect to stay with the big league club (at least as long as he proves capable).
 
Ryan no doubt had his hand in sending outfielder, and top prospect Max Kepler to the majors. In getting there, he started just two of 17 games, and saw only 14 plate appearances. Whether or not his development was stunted, Kepler saw the early part of his 2016 go to waste. Throw Jorge Polanco in the mix with Kepler, and you have another guy that has now been promoted to the big league level six different times, despite never staying for longer than a four game span. Not expected to have much of a significant impact being more rotational guys to start, the Twins learned next to nothing about either of them while they were up.
 
A problematic pattern with promotions has followed Ryan for the better part of the past couple seasons. Both Michael Tonkin and Kennys Vargas were mishandled a season ago. One is currently seeing success at for the Twins, while the other is still trying to find the floor after having the rug pulled out from under him.
 
Then you have what may be considered the breaking point for me. In signing veteran retread David Murphy, the Twins were essentially saying they needed a reason to shake up the roster. Rather than doing so and using a guy like Oswaldo Arcia (who has made his lack of playing time early on look silly), it was Murphy who was supposed to come in and force Minnesota into making a necessary move such as demoting top prospect Byron Buxton.
 
Murphy went to Triple-A Rochester, and hit .194 like the aged veteran he is. Upon time for his upcoming opt out clause, the Twins first cleared room on their 40 man roster. Catcher John Hicks, who was just claimed from the Mariners this offseason, was jettisoned. Now not only had the Twins lost their third catcher (and a guy with decent future reliability), Murphy made things worse for Minnesota by declining any promotion and chose to retire.
 
Rather than actually knowing where all parties stood, Ryan and the Twins end up looking silly with egg on their face as the roster handling appears to be above their level of competency. As the dust settled, Minnesota finds themselves now needing to add an otherwise unnecessary player to the 40 man just to fill out their big league bench.
 
At some point, you have to be ok with asking for more from your leaders. Ryan at his best has been passable if not mediocre. If the Twins are going to take the next step, it's becoming relatively clear that Ryan is probably not the guy capable of pushing the envelope to get them there. Rather than continuing to look internally, and hiring back buddies such as Gardenhire, the Twins best friend could be the one they don't yet know. Ingenuity and innovation generally breeds advancement, but right now that's a foreign concept at Target Field.
 
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I've been a Twins fan my whole life. About 6 years ago I started paying more attention to the minor league system, and found myself getting excited about the potential of young guys. As I started to pay more attention, I found myself looking further down the pipeline to the Dominican Summer League stats to see who might be the next guys to show up on prospect lists. Of course information is pretty scarce on a majority of these players and scouting reports seems non-existent except for the higher bonus guys. While scouting box scores and stat lines is always precarious, one guy caught my eye. That player was mentioned by Miguel Sano as one to watch for this most recent spring - Alexis Tapia. Tapia will likely be heading to the Appy League next week, but has pitched 2 innings in relief for Fort Myers this year as well. And while he certainly has a work a lot to prove given that he is still in the rookie levels, I am pleased to see him getting some attention.
 
Why did he catch my eye in 2013 in the DSL box scores? A combination of his size (6'2" 190ish) and an excellent K/BB ratio (31/5). Tapia showed well in the GCL last year as well and hopefully the 19 year old will continue to develop and give Twins fan another pitcher to dream on.
 
As I look at this years DSL squad and some of the early season returns, there are a few pitchers with similar characteristic to those that drew my attention to Tapia. Of course, we are still dealing with extremely small sample sizes, but so far so good. While Huascar Ynoa gets more attention due to his larger signing bonus, here are a few others to keep an eye on: (Click on their name to go to their respective MILB player pages)
 
Brusdar Graterol : The 6' 1" 180lb Venezuelan righty has pitched 10 innings across 3 outings and amassed 15 strikeouts to just 1 walk, an impressive start for the youngster who is still only 16 years old!
 
Carlos Suniaga : Another Venezuelan righty, Suniaga turned 18 last month and is 6'2" 187. In 12.2 innings he has struck out 11 and walked only 1.
 
Miguel De Jesus : Miguel is a bit older at 19 and comes from the Dominican Republic. He's 6'2" 175 and also throws right handed. He has been dominant though, with 22 K's and only 1 BB in 15.2 innings. His WHIP is a ridiculous 0.45 and he has yet to allow a run. Due to his older age, perhaps we could see De Jesus make a few appearances in the GCL this season.
 
Luis Bellorin : Luis is another Venezuelan. He's 17 years old 6'1" 167. He's a bit smaller and his walk numbers aren't quite as good as the others on this list. In 14.1 innings, he has walked 6 and struck out 12. Again, the numbers aren't quite as exciting, Luis is unique to the others in an exciting way due to the fact that he's a southpaw.
 
It will be interesting to see how these young guys develop. Obviously, they've got a long way to go to even get on the prospect radar, let alone a big league roster. However, their numbers this year suggest the Twins have done a pretty good job of adding some upside arms in the international market.