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Everything posted by Captain Hindsight
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Before we laud how far we've come in regards to metrics, remember that Porcello won the Cy Young last year with similar though not quite as pronounced circumstances. He was tied for 4th in bWAR, and Verlander led most categories except wins and BB/9. (Though worth noting that Verlander did get the majority of 1st place votes) Interesting to also compare Brittons, who took 4th, with Rivera. Britton had a 795 ERA+ last year.
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- johan santana
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Where are you reading that? This is what BA had to say: "He has the quick feet and plus arm strength required to play shortstop..." http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mlb-2017-draft-tracker-a/#CYMf8V9t3FPg3g1W.99 Granted, it does say some scouts think he may have to move but not because of "Revere-like" arm strength.
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Noticed the before GIFs were against same handed pitching and the after against opposite handed pitching. Seems like it would be better to compare them equally.
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- joe benson
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That was my thinking with Dean. He, like Gilmartin, was another lefty starter with fringe stuff that might attract attention in the Rule V as a BP candidate. Last year they might have thought Gilmartin was safe as generally teams select high velocity guys hoping to strike gold. They did not want to repeat the same mistake and Dean could be usesful to them next year so protecting him gives them the opportunity to find out. I think the difference between the two is, Gilmartin at least showed the ability to strikeout to strikeout batters in the minors, Dean never really did and survived mostly on limiting free passes.
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- adam brett walker
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Article: Twins, Rockies Talk Tulowitzki
Captain Hindsight replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I am as big a fan of Tulowitzki as anybody and would love to be able to watch him as a member of the Twins. That being said, I would be less inclined to give up Gibson, Mainly because it would be a big blow to the current rotation but also because he is developing into a really good and unique pitcher with an ability to induce GBs at a high rate and produce K's. Though you have to give something to get something, so I would live with Berrios being included along with Santana/Polanco (gives them a SS) as well as one of the position players that has fallen out of favor Vargas/Arcia/Pinto and another lesser piece likely a pitcher such as Duffey, Jorge or Rogers. If cash has to be included, take Nolasco. My cause for concern, and the reason I wouldn't want to include too much more is not only money owed but the injury history. No question he is one of the games very best when healthy but he has missed time throughout his career. All this talk might be moot as he has said he wants to stay and the owner is a big fan. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/07/troy-tulowitzki-not-interested-trade-rockies.html#comments -
Article: Twins Bullpen - Internal Candidates
Captain Hindsight replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
That's not a LOOGY, that is just a reliever. In all seriousness though, I am all for trying anything that relieves Duensing of his position in the BP. Rogers splits show he is unlikely to be an effective starter in the big leagues so it is worth a shot as a lefty specialist in the BP, but don't think we should force in a lefty. If our best option is a righty then that is who we should bring up.- 36 replies
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Article: Twins Promote Alex Meyer
Captain Hindsight replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Every starter outside of Tommy Milone has a worse career ERA than Ervin Santana. It is incredibly flawed to use career stats to make conclusions about a player. Santana has out performed his career numbers 4 out of the past 5 years in regards to ERA. -
Article: The Twins $55 Million Question
Captain Hindsight replied to Ted Schwerzler's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
For what its worth, his career ERA is 4.17 not 4.48. Even then, it is extremely misleading to look at his career numbers as 4 out of the last 5 years he has had a sub-4 ERA.- 55 replies
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- ervin santana
- phil hughes
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Article: Game Thread: Cubs@Twins 6/19 7:10PM
Captain Hindsight replied to Riverbrian's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Cubs are looking more like the bad news bears tonight. They have been just gifting us runs which is just fine with me. Nice to see Vargas with a hard hit double. -
I'm as disappointed in Hicks as the next guy, but is he really a worse pick than two below replacement level players, including one that did not sign? At worst the Twins can get a little value with his speed and defense as a 4th OFer.
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- chris parmelee
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There were a couple picks I would have made differently, for example Nix over Blakenhorn and Aiken over Jay (though that depends on the medicals) but overall I am quite happy with what the Twins selected in the first 10 rounds. Interesting how lefty heavy they went in both pitching and hitting. Really liked the Cody, Cabbage, Moran and the Kendrick picks. I think some of those balls Kendrick hit in the video still haven't hit the ground.
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I am not sure where all the complaining about drafting relievers is coming from. We have drafted one in the 5th round. Sure, technically you can count Jay as well but he wasn't your typical reliever and it was nearly a consensus among the experts that he can start. Other than that we have drafted two starters, an OFer and two 3rd basemen. Not exactly loading up on relievers like past drafts.
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I'd be happy with Trahan and Matuella, though I think I would pass on the others due to signability. I am hoping for Nix, but think the Twins might target more position players with Jay and Cody already brought in the fold.
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Article: Twins Hidden Draft Gems (Rounds 2-10)
Captain Hindsight replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'm confused, how would that negatively effect their draft choices? I think they did well with their recent choices of Adam Brett-Walker and Nick Burdi.- 14 replies
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- brad radke
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Article: Twins Hidden Draft Gems (Rounds 2-10)
Captain Hindsight replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Since he had TJ in April, would Matuella pitch enough before next years draft to make much of a difference? He is kind of in a bad spot, since he will be a senior next year and the talent pool should be better. I'd imagine if a team took a chance on him in the 3rd or 4th and gave him near a $1 million bonus he would be crazy not to accept.- 14 replies
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- brad radke
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I do not think John Manual is implying his delivery is "high effort" but it creates high energy, which would collaborate with what others are saying. For example, here is a quote from a scouting report on MLB.com: "He generates that heat with athleticism and a quick arm rather than an excessive amount of effort in his delivery." and another from D1 Baseball: "He’s got the loose, easy delivery..." and finally here is a bit by John Manual of Baseball America, talking about Jays delivery in relation to Fulmers: "...Jay does it easier, does it cleaner."
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- tyler jay
- dansby swanson
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I am not a fan of this pick either but all I have heard is Jay has an easy delivery. On an unrelated note, anybody catch the name of the pitcher who relieved Jay in todays game?
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- tyler jay
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Sigh...Not the name I was hoping to hear. Hopefully this kid makes me look like a fool for doubting him.
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- tyler jay
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Seems like things are pointing to Jay. Manual, Callis and Mayo all have him as the Twins selection in their final mocks before the draft. I'd find that a highly disappointing selection if it turns out to be true as I'm concerned about how his body and stuff will hold up as a starter. Speaking of which, noticed he was sitting more 91-93 instead of 94-96 in his performance today. That is why Law gets paid the big bucks. Nobody doesn't answer questions like he does.
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Ryan said earlier that the Twins will let talent not medical concerns decide who they draft at number 6. MLBTR speculated this could mean Matuella or Aiken are in play with their first pick with Wolfson mentioning them being high on Aiken last year (though suggeted Allard might be more likely). It might be wishful thinking on my part that they would go this route but it is worth noting. Also, Mac Marshall is a JC player not a prep. He was draft eligible last year.
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I would not mind the Twins taking a chance on either player. In fact, unless Rodgers or Swanson fell, I would prefer it. Both of these players represent the type of obvious high end talent that this draft lacks. It is possible, if not very likely neither would be available if healthy. It certainly is risky with their injuries but the pay off makes it justifiable.
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Article: Twins Draft Preview: Tyler Jay
Captain Hindsight replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I am fine with the Twins taking college relievers with good stuff and trying to convert them to starters, but not that high in the draft. If the Twins were going to take that much of a risk that early I would rather they take Brady Aiken. Not only is there questions whether Jay's stuff would remain the same but there is also the risk of how his arm holds up with a starters workload especially with a smaller frame. “He would have been a top-five pick had he been used as a starter all year and he continued to show the kind of stuff he has in his longest relief outings this spring.” That is a tremendous insight by Law. Basically saying if his two biggest question marks were answered, he would be a high pick. Seems like you could make a similar statement about a lot of players.