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jharaldson

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Everything posted by jharaldson

  1. jharaldson
    The twinsdaily member submitted questions that you asked Dave St. Peter was my favorite thing that TwinsDaily.com has done. It was a direct connection between the concerns of those on this board and the president of our favorite team. If you are willing to do it I would highly suggest you solicit questions for him again.
  2. jharaldson
    Wow, they were big teases in this episode. "We can't let you know who the guest will be at the Twinsfest party but here are some obscure clues to get you guessing" ;-)
  3. jharaldson
    The numbers are interesting on Santana vs Nolasco. Spycake was accurate above and I did a 5 year comp and Nolasco was equal to or better in all numbers (K%, BB%, FIP, xFIP, WAR, ect...) except for the classics (ERA, IP). http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2010&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=3830,3200 Many of the new metrics are great predictors but maybe Santana is a guy like Buehrle where they outperform those stats and is worth more than what it looks like they should be?
  4. jharaldson
    in regards to blocking people, I just don't see that being an issue. Santana is effectively replacing Correia in the rotation so that is an upgrade. Pino, May, Deduno, Pelfrey, Milone, Johnson, and Swarzak all got starts last year and they stink. If May, Meyer, or Berrios are so good in the minors that they deserve a shot it isn't going to be Santana that blocks them, it is going to be Twins management like last year. We just got a good pitcher with a decent K% and the Twins broke the 100 million mark and proved the talk of giving up draft picks was more than hot air. This is a ground-breaking signing.
  5. jharaldson
    My recollection of the interview is that Dave St. Peter confirmed that revenue was going towards the debt servicing the Pohlads assumed when they paid for their part of Target Field. In simpler terms, the Pohlads are not paying anything towards Target field, they are using the extra revenue to pay it off. The other part of the extra revenue is going towards incremental improvements to Target Field and to Minor League operations. While I wouldn't call it evil or malicious I certainly don't think the Pohlads publicized prior to Target Field that their net contribution was actually going to be $0 and instead of directing all revenue to the team they would divert a good chunk to the mortgage.
  6. jharaldson

    War

    jharaldson posted a gallery image in Members Albums Category

    War

    From the album: jharaldson

    Cuddyer war value
  7. jharaldson
    Looking at this list makes me confused why Buehrle isn't more of a target of this team. I created a leaderboard at fangraphs with all the players above and Buehrle and if you look at the 1, 3, and 5 year timeframes Buehrle is better than each of the pitchers listed. The Twins failed to take advantage of similar salary dump offerings 2 years ago when Santana and Haren were available so I hope they turn that around now. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=2038,8223,5842,4567,5088,4138,9346,225&sort=19,d
  8. jharaldson
    I agree that Viola should not be considered a Twins insider and I would be pleasantly surprised if he were hired. I personally would be more inclined to look at some of the organizations that are more well thought of than the Mets for an outsider. Perhaps the Giants, Cardinals, or Rays.
  9. jharaldson
    How was Meatsauce able to report from his sources over a week ago and prior to the second interview with Lovullo if the decision wasn't already made?
  10. jharaldson
    I thought it was an interesting interview. At some point there are only so many ways to ask the same question so I think you moved on well. jheraldson ;-)
  11. jharaldson
    During the No Juice portion of this Dave St. Peter mentioned debt servicing multiple times as both part of the other 50% and as part of where some unspent payroll goes, along with Target Field imrovements and Minor League facility improvements. So yes, part of the budget involves paying off the Pohlad contribution to Target Field based on my understanding of the answers given.
  12. jharaldson
    I sure would like to see the Twins try though. Make an offer to him and make it public so the fans know that we put our best effort into this. If it comes out that Ryan made a 5 year/$30 million offer and Maddon rejects it then I praise the Twins for trying.
  13. jharaldson
    I was just looking at the Maddon Twitter feed and it is amazing how he down to earth he seems. His bit with the t-shirt promoting either individual causes or organizations is a nice way to connect with the community and he actually put some baseball thoughts out there as well. I looked at the 5 managers on twitter and he is the only guy actually doing something with it: https://twitter.com/MLB/lists/managers/members https://twitter.com/RaysJoeMaddon This is obviously of minimal importance to his skills as manager but I think it does show he definately is a unique voice among MLB managers.
  14. jharaldson
    Did the Rangers, Astros, and Diamondbacks rush their manager hirings without vetting? It seems as if they were able to make informed choices in less time than the Twins. I agree with your statement in principle but what I don't agree with is how the internal candidate is always the right choice. When the coaching staff was purged 2 years ago it was all internal guys who came in. When Smith was let go it was an internal guy who came in. When Ryan retired in 2007 the replacement was an internal guy. When looking for a VP of Player Personnel the guy to get was internal candidate Mike Radcliff. I have a hard time trusting that they are seriously looking at external candidates based on this track record but I hope to be proven wrong.
  15. jharaldson
    If the "immediate" candidate was an external candidate then I would have been predisposed to be happy but would have reserved judgement based on the candidate. If the "immediate" candidate was an internal candidate then I would have been predisposed to think "more of the same" but would have respected the honesty and upfront nature of his disagreement with fans over the value of internal knowledge. This is demonstrably false. I have provided a "winning" scenario above. Here is another: If the "delayed" candidate was an external candidate then I would have been predisposed to be happy but would have reserved judgement based on the candidate. The one situation where he can't win in my eyes is the following: If the "delayed" candidate was an internal candidate then I would say "what the hell?!?". Why did you waste all of our time when you were just going to grab the internal candidate. This feels like a PR cover rather than an actual search.
  16. jharaldson
    I want the Twins to get the right guy as well but the speculation that they are delayed is not just coming from Rubes on this board: http://blog.startribune.com/sports/randball/thursday-an-extended-twins-managerial-search-edition-wha-happened I also don't think it is fair to say they have narrowed it down to 2-3 guys when Terry Ryan has just stated the following: My personal opinion is that this search is not looking like Ryan is taking his time and making a careful judgement but instead looks like Ryan just wants to pick a guy from the Twins org but is aware of what perception of that would be and is dragging out this process to provide some cover.
  17. jharaldson
    We are the last team without a manager this offseason and have lost at least 1 candidate to another team. The last team to hire a manager did so almost a week ago. I think at this point it is reasonable to describe our process as delayed.
  18. jharaldson
    Mr. St. Peter, I need to leave suddenly, can you pick up the check?
  19. jharaldson
    With a dramatic reduction in ticket sales likely, are you considering any short term programs (Ex. Knothole Games) to keep fan interest? Dick and Bert are fixtures in the TV booth but the Twins have mixed in a number of guest commentators over the past few years (Coomer, Kelly, ect...). Any new faces coming in 2015, potentially even Gardenhire? The Vikings have been getting some heat for a refusal to put glass in their new stadium that would help reduce the amount of bird deaths. Did you have a similar "niche" problem while building Target Field and how did you go about addressing the issue?
  20. jharaldson
    When selling the handbook this year would you be willing to make the audio of the Ryan interview available to people who purchase? The bit you spliced in with Ryan discussing, or more accurately, refusing to discuss the glut of RF/1B/DH players in the system was very interesting. His tone was dismissive and he frankly came across as a bit of a jerk. It would be intersting to hear the tone of the other answers.
  21. jharaldson
    The Twins had 696 chances in left field and the Royals had 683 chances which is roughly equal. Looking at how pitching did impact the OF the Twins were roughly equal to the Royals in number of flyballs but the Twins had 21 more line drives hit to left field. Maybe the Twins crappy pitching affected the Twins LF as much as the Twins crappy LF defense affected the pitching.
  22. jharaldson
    When I look at the chart Parker provided I noticed the Royals made 435 outs in LF and the Twins made 416 outs for a difference of 19 outs over the year. How is 1 additional out every 8.5 games that big of a deal? I also noted that the Twins and Royals were roughly equal on Flyballs but the Twins had 20 more line drives hit to the outfield which are harder to field.
  23. jharaldson
    Aaron Gleeman posted something to this effect as well and added the following stat: When I dug into that second half performance I found that he ended the year on not that great of note. In his final 28 games of 2014 he has an .746 OPS, .075 ISO, and a 23.6% K%. This makes me think that the concussion is not the whole answer and Joe may just be slowing down.
  24. jharaldson
    If you believe in WAR then the downgrade is 1.7 wins (3.7 WAR for Shields and 2.0 for Odorizzi). If you take the 3.1 WAR for Davis vs. the .2 WAR for Myers then you are at 4.6 wins the Royals would be out. In regards to Myers, if you break his career into quarters this is what you find: 2013 June/July - .900 OPS 2013 Aug/Sept - .781 OPS 2014 April/May - .666 OPS Injury 2014 Aug/Sept - .530 OPS Myers still has a lot of baseball ahead of him and can turn this around but you can't look at that trend and be anything but troubled. We won't know the grade on this trade for many years but it is certainly more positive now for the Royal than it was last year at this time.
  25. jharaldson
    Let's say the Royals took your advice last year and kept Myers and Odorizzi. They would have a prospect in Myers who is now in the process of failing. He had a negative value for his team this year. Odorizzi had a fine season and his K/9 numbers are nice but he graded out a 2.0 fWAR which translates to seviceable starter. That doesn't sound like "mission accomplished" either and the futility of the Royals would still be in effect.
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