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Ryan Atkins

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Everything posted by Ryan Atkins

  1. Ryan Atkins
    My sample shows consistency and reliability. Yours shows a 4 month snapshot which is already wrong after less than 3 days. Dozier is now 7th in WAR (not 9th) for AL 2B. Ahead of such scrubs as Dustin Pedroia and Jason Kipnis. League-wide, if you're only interested in WAR, Dozier is ahead of the likes of Adam Jones, Miguel Cabrera, Andrew Benintendi, Ryan Braun, Mike Moustakas, Yasiel Puig, and Albert Pujols. Dozier (31 next May) will cost $9m next year. A bargain. Pedroia (34) will cost $16m and Kipnis (30) will cost $13.6m.
  2. Ryan Atkins
    Great article. I'm excited and hoping the Twins can win 5 in-a-row for the first time all season. One big reason CLE and KC are ahead is that they both had an 8-0 run while Twins were getting beaten up by a very good Dodgers team. If the Twins can string together their own run now, it should be an interesting September. Pitching continues to be a concern so it would be great if either Falvey picked up a good rent-a-pitcher or we luck out and Gonsalves comes up and goes 5-1.
  3. Ryan Atkins
    Mauer is proving to be one of the better fielding 1B in the league and he should continue to be good at working the count and getting on base. But a traditional power hitting 1B he is not. For 1B/DH, I wonder what Levine/Falvey have in mind for ByungHo Park & Kennys Vargas? Will Park get another shot? Will Vargas ever have staying power at the big league level? Do either have trade value? What do you do with these guys?
  4. Ryan Atkins
    Yes (answering the question), with all of the qualifications noted by others. With respect to Dozier, I don't see the logjam. You have an established better-than-average 2B who can play every day. Why would you want to indiscriminately dump him in favor of uncertainty and hope. Over the last 3+ seasons (2014-now), Brian Dozier is 3rd in AL in WAR, 1st in HR, 2nd in RBI, 2nd in SB, 2nd in Runs Scored. Extend Dozier and hopefully have Gordon starting at SS in 2019 (giving Polanco one more chance to prove himself next year).
  5. Ryan Atkins
    Correct. I was going to break apart each point, but this post is sufficient. They tried to trade Dozier when his value was higher than it is now and all they could get was Jose De Leon who has not pitched well this year and has been injured. That would have just been dandy. We'll see what happens. Dozier is not in the lineup today and Twins brass will surely try to get him pushed through waivers so they may test the waters again before August ends.
  6. Ryan Atkins
    Berrios was brilliant last night. As Eric Karros said on FS1, "he does not deserve to be down" in this game (when trailing 1-0). Maybe he'll win a 10-8 game soon to balance this one out. It was tough to watch the no-no broken up by a dribbler and then Max K. doing his Nelson Cruz impression (circa 2011 WS, almost identical play).
  7. Ryan Atkins
    He really deserves a gold glove this year. Since its voted on my managers and coaches (not the BBWAA), I have hope.
  8. Ryan Atkins
    All great points. I don't understand the zeal for trading Brian Dozier. As others have pointed out, there isn't much of a void at 2B across the league right now so demand is low and return would likely be disappointing. Dodgers wouldn't budge, in part, because they weren't competing with anyone else for Dozier. Meanwhile, I too don't believe there is a logjam at 2B in the Twins organization either--certainly not yet. There does seem to be a budding logjam in the OF with the emergence of Granite. It could be argued that we now have 4 everyday OF for 3 positions: Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, and Granite. It will be interesting to see how that shakes out.
  9. Ryan Atkins
    I don't think it would have been overturned, but it seemed worth the challenge being that it was a crucial run and already late in the game. When you challenge, does anyone know if you can you specifically ask that they look at whether the catcher was blocking the plate? I think that would be the only reason to overturn as I didn't see compelling evidence that the tag was not applied.
  10. Ryan Atkins
    Fortunately for him, he's only had to do that a handful of times in his career.
  11. Ryan Atkins
    The Twins have been equally poor at home. They need to learn how to win at home. It should be an advantage, not a liability. If their road domination were to continue, they would only need to play .500 at home to have a good chance at the post season. And most importantly, I agree, beat your central division foes.
  12. Ryan Atkins
    I would like to see them wait a bit longer. Maybe if they were to trade Escobar, then it could make sense to bring up Murphy as a 3rd catcher. But if we're starting to characterize a .232 BA at AAA as a "strong start", then it suggests he can't do much better than that. And those numbers probably drop at the big league level (down to say Castro/Giminez level). Either way, this seems a low impact decision whichever way they go. In unrelated news: Chris Herrmann (.185) hit a walk-off HR for the D-backs a couple nights ago. Folks, there just aren't many Buster Posey's out there. The 7th top hitting catcher in MLB is hitting a whopping .214
  13. Ryan Atkins
    Many great posts here already. My takeaways are: 1. Defense. Aside from the blown rundown of the busted squeeze play the other day, the D has been outstanding. 2. The strong early play from Jason Castro, Miguel Sano, and Jorge Polanco. So important when you have the likes of Buxton, Dozier, and Mauer starting slowly. 3. Pitching. The key to any team's success. Santana has lived up to being out #1. I was impressed with Hughes. Underwhelmed be Gibson and Santiago, but they did OK. Mejia, we'll see, deserves a few more starts. Bullpen is strong and I think that can continue if they don't get overworked (i.e., starters continue to do well).
  14. Ryan Atkins
    2nd best record in baseball (5-1) after week 1 gets you ranked #14 by ESPN -- LOL. Just behind them at #15 is Toronto (1-5).
  15. Ryan Atkins
    I think we would all be thrilled with that. I also hope he improves on his 50% career success rate on attempted steals. It would be great if at least one of Rosario/Buxton/Sano had a major breakout season.
  16. Ryan Atkins
    I think your prediction is spot on and has a very good chance at realization. My hope is that his overall hitting continues to improve slightly while the HRs drop just a bit. I'll go with: .270 BA, 28 HR, 88 RBI, 25 SB, 102 R I would like to see him steal more bases. With Molitor as MGR, I have been surprised by how poorly this team runs the bases. It is perhaps a skill you just can't teach. But Dozier (83% over the last 2 years) has been good, just not frequent enough. Dozier leading off with Mauer or Grossman (both of whom can work a count) batting 2nd should allow for a few more SBs.
  17. Ryan Atkins
    Oops. That sample wasn't a subset, it was for the entire 2016 season. The same stat across Dozier's entire career is even more telling: 42.6% of his ABs came when batting in the 1st position 53.2% of his RBIs came when batting in the 1st position So for the tiny subset of Dozier's entire career, he has been more productive hitting lead off than anywhere else in the lineup.
  18. Ryan Atkins
    I would suggest that if Miguel Cabrera played for the Twins, he would still be batting #3 and Dozier would still be batting #1. Dozier and Kinsler are very similar players. The problem is that we don't have a Miguel Cabrera The % of Dozier's RBIs while in the lead off position should be far less that the % of Dozier's ABs while in the lead off position if it were always true that RBIs came easier from a lower batting position. But alas... 49.7 % of ABs came from Batting 1st 49.5 % of RBIs came from Batting 1st Now, I am sure that is an anomaly of sorts. And it is true, in general, that you have more RBIs batting 3rd or 4th than you do batting 1st. But maybe there is actually a dependency on the human player and the others on the team as far as where each fits in relative to the others. All we can really do is put our trust in Paul Molitor since he will be setting the lineup. And it wouldn't surprise me if he has Dozier leading off in game #1.
  19. Ryan Atkins
    I agree it is not ideal to have Dozier as a lead off hitter, I just think in his current situation with this team, it is the best option right now--that could always change. But I love the idea of hitting Buxton 3rd and hope that will really launch his career. Keep in mind that over the course of a season, the lead off hitter will also have more plate appearances than any other batting order position. Sano - 8 HR with men on base in 2016, mainly hitting 3rd or 4th Dozier - 12 HR with men on base in 2016, mainly hitting 1st
  20. Ryan Atkins
    I am comfortable having Dozier lead off and he is obviously most comfortable there as well. There IS a statistical trend with Dozier. The trend is that for 5 consecutive years (his whole career), he has increased his H, HR, and RBI totals every year. So, why make him uncomfortable, just enjoy the ride. Just because you hit lead off doesn't mean you never hit with men on base. That is only guaranteed to happen once per game. Similarly, just because you are not leading off doesn't guarantee that you will be hitting with men on base. 68% of Miguel Sano HR in 2016 were solo. 71 % of Brian Dozier HR in 2016 were solo. Really, not much difference there.
  21. Ryan Atkins
    Rest assured that by June 1, the pitching staff will have been jostled numerous times due to injury or ineffectiveness. So, whoever happens to go north in April isn't terribly significant except for Mr. Rule 5 guy.
  22. Ryan Atkins
    I agree with the article. If it were up to me, I would go with Mejia for starter #5, return Haley, start Berrios in AAA, and add Duffey (long man) and Chargois to the Bullpen. Haley has been unimpressive, but if the brass insists on keeping him, then I would hide him in the bullpen and Chargois would be sent down.
  23. Ryan Atkins
    This strikes me as a rather "safe" roster, nothing unexpected. I like what I've seen from Matt Hague this Spring, but I don't think there is any hope for him save for an injury. I hope that management decides to take at least one gamble. And for me, that gamble would be to put Adalberto Mejia into the rotation for at least 5 starts.
  24. Ryan Atkins
    I'm inclined to believe that Falvey and Levine brought in Gimenez to be on the MLB team unless JRM is sufficiently impressive in camp to win (back) that job. Gimenez has no real value for the Twins in the minors, so I believe he either makes the club or is released/traded. We know Falvey and Levine like him, so if Molitor ends up liking him too, case closed.
  25. Ryan Atkins
    You're forgetting the only stat that actually matters to the Twins: Duffy: MLB Wins: 5, MLB Losses 1, MLB W-L%: .833 Berrios: MLB Wins: 0, MLB Losses 0, MLB W-L%: .000 Berrios will get his chance and when he surpasses those MLB numbers and wins numerous Cy Young awards in the process, then we can all stand up and cheer. Until then, he is simply a promising prospect just as Willie Banks, Pat Mahomes, J.D. Durbin, Dan Serafini, and Adam Johnson were once promising prospects.
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