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howieramone2

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  1. Like
    howieramone2 reacted to Ted Schwerzler for a blog entry, Byron Buxton And The Future   
    On June 14, 2015, the Minnesota Twins embarked on what they hoped would be a monumental day in the history of the franchise. Drafted 2nd overall in the 2012 Major League Baseball draft, Bryon Buxton was finally a member of the Twins active roster. Billed as baseball's best prospect, the expectations were through the roof. Now three months into his career, things haven't gone as expected.
     
    Or maybe they have.
     
    As of this writing, Buxton has played in 34 games, and slashed a paltry .202/.242/.272. He has one triple, six doubles, and just 23 hits in 114 at bats. He's struck out 39 times while drawing only five free bases. To put it lightly, the offensive output has been less than stellar. What is hasn't been though is unexpected.
     
    Buxton tore up the farm system. He's a career .301/.383/.489 hitter across four seasons, and he batted .400/.441/.545 in 13 games at the Triple-A level this season. That's indicative more of what he's capable of than it is what should have been expected. Coming to the big leagues, Buxton was a Gold Glove caliber defender from the onset, but the bat was going to take some time.
     
    At this point, Buxton's offensive repertoire is a direct reflection of his speed. He is putting the ball on the ground at a 47.8% rate as well as owning a 21.2 infield hit percentage. On top of needing to adjust to big league pitching, Buxton is doing himself few favors in regards to the strike zone. Swinging at 32.3% of pitches outside of the zone, he's chasing far too often. Reflected in his 69.3% contact rate, Buxton has room to improve when it comes to putting his pitch in play.
     
    Aside from the numbers, Buxton has always been expected to hit, in time. Given a 70 grade by MLB.com scouts, he's regarded as close to a sure thing at the plate. In time, the tools should absolutely become reality, and allow the former number one prospect to provide plus value at the plate. For now, that value is evidenced in other aspects.
     
    Not going well at the plate, it's integral that Buxton find himself playing (and contributing) in the field often. Thus far, he's done exactly that. Playing 283 defensive innings in centerfield for the Twins, Buxton has already been worth 4 DRS (defensive runs saved). As things stand, Buxton would be on pace for 21 DRS over the course of 162 games. That mark would trail only Kevin Kiermaier's 38 this season for centerfielders in all of baseball.
     
    In his first taste with the Twins, Buxton has not only gained extremely valuable experience, but he's given insight of what is, and what will be. Right now, a raw hitter and an incredibly good defender, Buxton is only half of the puzzle. What he should be expected to do, is draw his hitting ability more closer to that he has displayed with his glove.
     
    Looking forward, Buxton's floor might be something like a better version of Mike Cameron. A guy that was a career .249/.338/.444 hitter and compiled a 50.7 fWAR across 16 seasons. Both offensively and defensively, Buxton should be superior at his worst. Looking at a doomsday scenario though, the Twins could do much worse.
     
    Speculating about the ceiling probably isn't fair. Buxton remains an incredible athlete and should be expected to take significant strides forward in 2016. Reaching his potential, he could find himself being a perennial All Star.
     
    Keeping things in perspective, it's best to remember that what Buxton is providing the Twins in 2015 is far less important than what the Twins are providing him. Allowing the floor to be raised, Buxton's future is only a glimmer at this point, but it still remains plenty bright.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  2. Like
    howieramone2 reacted to Ted Schwerzler for a blog entry, The Twins Silent Star   
    This season, the Minnesota Twins have risen well above expectations. More likely to lose 90 games than be a playoff team, Paul Molitor has his squad in a very unexpected position. Getting key contributions from big names like Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano, the Twins offense has been rolling of late. There's another star that has not gotten near the publicity deserved however.
     
    Trevor Plouffe.
     
    Thought of as a placeholder at third base until Sano forced a position changed for either himself or Plouffe, it has been Trevor who has evolved into a lunch-pail type player. After a breakout season in 2014, Plouffe has followed it up by coming to the field every day and simply getting it done. Putting substantial credibility into his impressive 2014 campaign, Plouffe is on pace for plenty of career highs this season.
     
    Through 135 games (which is just one shy of his career high) Plouffe owns a .250/.313/.445 slash line. To this point, the Twins third-basemen has 127 hits, 31 doubles, four triples, 20 home runs, 79 runs batted in, and 44 walks. Per FanGraphs, Plouffe owns a 2.6 fWAR the second highest mark of his career.
     
    Looking at detractors, the biggest slide has been Plouffe's defensive prowess. A year after posting a career best 6 DRS (defensive runs saved) at the hot corner, he owns a -2 mark this season. Plouffe's UZR (ultimate zone rating) has also taken a hit falling from 6.7 a year ago to just 2.7 this season. Effectively however, that's where the negatives end.
     
    On pace to accumulate new career highs in games played, runs, hits, triples (already accomplished), runs batted in, and potentially walks and home runs, 2015 has been a smashing success. The 29 year-old former first round pick has begun to enter his prime, and the Twins are better for it. With Dozier and Sano slotting in close to him in the lineup, it has been Plouffe that has provided the stability.
     
    Going forward, much has been made about the eventual position change that either Plouffe or Sano will need to make. Despite Plouffe having played everything but catcher, pitcher, and centerfield at the major league level, that decision doesn't need to be made yet. Plouffe can spell Joe Mauer when he needs to, and Sano can operate as the team's primary designated hitter. No matter how Molitor chooses to utilize Sano, Plouffe, and Mauer, there's room for each in the foreseeable future.
     
    Knowing what Plouffe brings to the Twins, it's probably best for Minnesota to be looking to pay him, rather than to trade him. Currently signed on a one-year $4.8 million deal, arbitration will become expensive in 2016. Not a free agent until 2018, Minnesota could do right by Plouffe and save themselves some money by buying out the next two years of arbitration while grabbing a year of free agency in the process.
     
    At 32 years-old in 2018, Plouffe should still be expected to be roughly the same player he currently is. Minnesota has been the beneficiary of a California kid who has gotten it done in a big way the last two seasons. It's now time to make sure he's part of the future as well.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  3. Like
    howieramone2 reacted to Ted Schwerzler for a blog entry, The Twins Gem In The Pen   
    In recent seasons, the Minnesota Twins have not been in the best position to make moves at the trade deadline. A winning club for the first time since 2010, Terry Ryan was awarded a new opportunity this season. With a handful of different upgrade possibilities at his disposal, it was the bullpen piece that he acquired making it two straight slam dunk deals for the Twins.
     
    A season after snagging major league quality starter Tommy Milone from the Athletics, Ryan turned his attention to a pitching starved pen. The Twins bullpen had been one of the worst in the big leagues through the first half of 2015, and if the club was even going to sniff a playoff opportunity, finishing games needed to be less stressful.
     
    As the deadline drew to a close, Ryan sent lottery ticket prospect Chih-Wei Hu to the the Tampa Bay Rays for veteran Kevin Jepsen. Despite Hu owning a sub 3.00 ERA for the Fort Myers Miracle, he was a fringe prospect that Minnesota turned into a major league commodity. Jepsen came to the Twins under a one-year, $3.03 million deal and a year of team control in 2016.
     
    Despite a potentially concerning 4.20 FIP for the Rays, and an ugly first outing for the Twins, Jepsen has been everything Minnesota has needed. Since that first blow-up outing, Jepsen has allowed just a single earned run across 18.1 IP. He's given up just nine hits, and five walks, while striking out 17 in that span. Allowing just a .141/.203/.188 slash line against, his 0.49 ERA is dazzling. To say Jepsen has revitalized the Twins bullpen would be an understatement.
     
    Jepsen has also taken aim at some of his own peripherals. The once inflated FIP has settled in at 3.04 with the Twins. He's also hitting the strike zone 64% of the time, compared to 61% while with the Rays. Then there's the added responsibility that the newest Twins reliever has taken on.
     
    Despite Glen Perkins being baseball's best closer through the first half of the season, the second half has been a different story. Marred by injury, Minnesota's 9th inning role was up in the air, until Jepsen stepped in. He's picked up seven saves for the Twins (blowing none). Just one run has crossed in those seven innings, and he's fanned nine while giving up just four hits. Not traditionally a closer (just 12 saves in 7 seasons prior to his time with the Twins), Jepsen has looked every bit the part.
     
    Maybe somewhat poetically, a closer is absolutely what Minnesota and Terry Ryan were hoping for in Jepsen. With a renewed sense of purpose in 2015, a bullpen unable to hold onto leads and close out games wasn't going to get it done. Targeting a low cost option, with future benefit, Jepsen has proved to be an acquisition that Minnesota can look back and smile upon.
     
    Over the course of the season, prolonged strength in relief hasn't been something the Twins could much point to. Aside from Perkins, Trevor May, and times of Blaine Boyer, things have been bleak. When Minnesota needed it most though, they got Kevin Jepsen, and became better for it.
     
    Whether the Twins make the playoffs or not, Jepsen has been a diamond in the rough for Molitor and Neil Allen. He's been at the center of Minnesota's September pursuits, and should be expected to continue that trend into 2016 as well.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  4. Like
    howieramone2 reacted to Ted Schwerzler for a blog entry, Who Is This Kyle Gibson?   
    So here we are, the 2015 Major League Baseball season is quickly rumbling to a finish, and the Minnesota Twins have made it a relevant year. In the playoff hunt, and playing meaningful September baseball, the Twins are in a good place. With the performance though, there are no doubt players that have taken steps forward. The question is, does Kyle Gibson qualify among them?
     
    Coming into the season, Gibson was a pitcher I expected a lot out of. A former first round pick and top Twins pitching prospect, Gibson needed to push the envelope. Now 27 years old, his experience was teetering into veteran territory, and there's no doubt that Minnesota was hoping the results would follow. With new pitching coach Neil Allen getting to work with him for the first time, Gibson had plenty of opportunity in front of him.
     
    The lone full season in his career at the big league level, 2014, Gibson owned a 4.47 ERA in 31 starts for a bad Twins team. He pitched 179.1 innings, struck out 107, walked 57, gave up 12 home runs, and owned a 1.310 WHIP. For all intents and purposes, the numbers were mediocre across the board. On a team with bad starters, Gibson was an ok-at-best back-end option. With a retooled 2015 rotation, the Twins were hoping Gibson could push towards possessing the middle-to-top type stuff he once was billed as.
     
    In 2015 (as of this writing), Gibson owns a 3.87 ERA. He's started 28 games and has pitched 172.0 innings. The former Missouri Tiger has struck out 119 batters and walked 57, while allowing a career high 16 home runs. All told, he's compiled a 1.291 WHIP in 2015. On the surface, it's somewhat difficult to suggest what context that gives the year-by-year improvement Gibson has seen. Taking a closer look starts to open things up however.
     
    First, the start Gibson has was simply brilliant. From April 15 through May 30, Gibson was one of the best in the big leagues. A span of nine starts saw him throw to the tune of a 1.85 ERA and just a .237/.302/.363 slash line against. An rough stretch in the middle of the year inflated things, but then has once again been evened out by a strong finish. In four starts since August 22, Gibson owns a 3.20 ERA and has allowed opposing hitters to slash just .228/.291/.315 off of him.
     
    Continuing with a beginning and end trend, Gibson actually has fared the opposite over the course of games themselves. In 2015, the first inning has been one of his worst. Allowing 17 first inning runs and 34 hits, Gibson has been hit around to a 5.46 ERA in getting the first three outs of a game. As contests go on as well, his finish has been difficult. Reaching the sixth inning in 24 of his 28 starts (and advancing beyond just 11 times), the righty owns a 6.52 ERA.
     
    What he has done well though is bounce back. In the second inning, and high leverage situations, Gibson has been at his best. In the second, Gibson owns a 2.25 ERA, and has allowed just eight runs. After pitching to less than advantageous situations, he's allowed opposing hitters to bat just .219/.319/.281 (his lowest slash line allowed across three possible situations).
     
    Quite possibly the biggest improvement Gibson has seen in 2015 is being great when good, and well, less bad when bad. To be fair, every pitcher has better numbers when generating a win than a loss, but Gibson has bee drastically more impressive. In 2014, the Twins starter owned a 1.42 ERA, 1.045 WHIP, and 5.7 K/9 in wins. He was hit around to the tune of an 11.04 ERA, 1.962 WHIP, and just a 4.6 K/9 in losses. 2015 has been a different story. This season, it's a dazzling 0.87 ERA, 0.952 WHIP, and 6.2 K/9 in wins, with a better 7.38 ERA, 1.752 WHIP, and 6.0 K/9 in losses. Capitalizing on success, and limiting the damage, it's been a complete improvement for the former top prospect.
     
    Having taken a deeper diver into the good, it seems that Gibson is, if nothing else, targeted in his excellence. Needing to settle in and focus, he's at his best. Being stretched out and coming into a game, he can be taken advantage of. It's not all positive however.
     
    Arguably the most concerning numbers Kyle Gibson has produced in 2015 fall into the peripheral statistics category. Looking at FIP (fielding independent pitching) and BB/9, there's some cause for concern. Gibson owns a 4.07 FIP last year (compared to a 3.80 FIP in 2014) and a 3.0 BB/9 (up just 0.1 over 2014). There's some explanation for the former, but maybe not for the latter.
     
    A season ago, the Twins were historically bad defensively, especially in the outfield. For a guy who utilizes the ground ball, pitches shouldn't get to the outfield. Owning a 54.4% ground ball rate in 2014, the 52.7% mark this season is a step backwards. His increased line drive percentage (19.0% in 2014, 20.2% in 2015) also doesn't help things. While the outfield defense is markedly better now, Gibson is also making it work harder behind him.
     
    Although Gibson isn't walking a a much higher rate of batters, the fact that it hasn't decreased is less than ideal. Improvement in the strikeout category is a nice plus, but for a guy fanning only six per nine on average, three walks per nine is hefty. Gibson has utilized his changeup the most in his career in 2015 (19.5%), likely in large part to Allen's instruction. The increased pitch usage could be helping the strikeouts, while making the zone a bit more difficult to maintain. Right now, Gibson's walk rate isn't a problem, but toeing right in the middle of the line, you'd rather not see it become one either.
     
    So, here we are, some ups and some downs, but that's probably what you're going to get with Gibson. I'm not sure he ever looked the part of a one or two pitcher, but at this point it's fair to pencil him in as a solid number three. If the Twins make the playoffs, he can be trusted on the mound to keep you in the game, and really, that's about all you should be asking for. He's taken steps forward this season, and in an improved rotation, he's a big part of it.
     
    Kyle Gibson probably isn't ever going to be the guy, but he's proven he's far more than just a guy too.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  5. Like
    howieramone2 reacted to Ted Schwerzler for a blog entry, Burdi, Reed, And The Pass Less Traveled   
    The 2015 Major League Baseball season wasn't supposed to go the way it has for the Minnesota Twins for many different reasons. Most notable, is the fact that Paul Molitor's club is in playoff position a year before they were expected to be. Surprisingly, there are a few expected contributors that are missing from the fold however. Maybe most glaringly of the bunch are two relievers, Nick Burdi and Jake Reed.
     
    Minnesota selected both Burdi and Reed with 2014 draft picks. Burdi was taken in the 2nd round out of the University of Louisville, while Reed went to the Twins in the 5th out of Oregon. Both players put together solid debut seasons, and Reed then went on to impress during the Arizona Fall League. With a good amount of momentum rolling behind them, both players looked like a 2015 MLB splash could be in the cards.
    Until it wasn't.
     
    Burdi's first outing of the season for Double-A Chattanooga was of the four run blowup variety, grabbing just two outs. By June 25, he owned a 5.93 ERA and was allowing opposing hitters a .775 OPS off of him. For Reed, things weren't much prettier. Three outings in, he allowed his first run. It snowballed to a 5.56 ERA and a .281/.366/.388 slash line by Aug 6th. Both players were then met with even more adversity.
     
    The Lookouts ultimately gave Burdi the hook first, with him being demoted at the end of June. Reed would stay with the Double-A club until early August, before assuming the same fate. Now being sent down to High-A Fort Myers, a level both seemed above, confidence needed to be regained.
     
    Pitching in his first game of 2015 for Fort Myers on July 2nd, Burdi registered four strikeouts in two innings pitched. After 13 games a level below, he had compiled a 2.25 ERA, a 13.05 K/9, and baffled opposing hitters to the tune of a .179/.208/.239 ERA. Since, he has been promoted back to Double-A Chattanooga, and owns a 1.74 ERA in 10.1 innings.
     
    Still down at Fort Myers, Reed has found himself as well. Having skipped over the level a season ago, Reed was getting his first taste of the Florida State League. Now with 11.1 innings under his belt, the former Duck looks every bit as dominating as he was once billed. A 0.00 ERA with a 7/1 K/BB ratio, Reed is overpowering hitters allowing just a .211/.225/.211 slash line.
     
    Now with the season set to wrap up, the next hurdle has appeared for the two flamethrowers. Both have been assigned to take part in the Arizona Fall League as representatives for the Twins. Playing for the Scottsdale Scorpions, Reed will be repeating the league after an impressive 2014 showing (0.71 ERA in 12.2 IP). Burdi will be making his first appearance.
     
    As Reed did last year, both pitchers can use the next challenge as a new opportunity. Despite being something they both likely believed they were past, a strong Fall League showing, could have heightened 2016 implications. With a Twins bullpen that will no doubt undergo a significant amount of turnover, candidates will need to emerge.
     
    Both Jake Reed and Nick Burdi continue to profile as key cogs in the Twins bullpen for years to come. Possessing high velocity arms, and strikeout stuff that has not been synonymous with the Twins for quite some time (or ever), the excitement level is there. Although 2015 didn't turn out to be what was once expected, a refresh button has appeared.
     
    Having had the opportunity to interview both Reed and Burdi in the past, betting against them a second time around doesn't seem like a good practice. These are two names you may want to get familiar with. With the Arizona Fall League as their proving ground, the next step could be within reach.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  6. Like
    howieramone2 reacted to Ted Schwerzler for a blog entry, The Twins Perfect Storm   
    Just a few weeks ago, the Twins 2015 postseason hopes looked all but lost. In a season in which expectations had already been so vastly exceeded, it appeared that once again, September would be nothing more than a proving ground for 2016. Now on the back of another nice run, Paul Molitor's squad enters September with something to play for. With a perfect storm approaching, Minnesota has the chance to sink or swim.
     
    Heading into the final full month of the season, Minnesota finds themselves looking up at only the Texas Rangers. With both the Yankees and Blue Jays holding down either the AL East or top Wild Card spot, it will be Texas that Minnesota will chase. Separated a few games ahead of the Los Angeles Angels, Minnesota can worry about themselves.
     
    Looking at the final month of the season, the Twins play plenty of familiar foes. Following the first weekend in September, the Twins will play only AL Central teams the rest of the way (outside of a four game homestand against the Angels). In those 22 games, only six of them come against the division leading Kansas City Royals. For further context, that means the Twins will play 16 games against sub .500 teams the rest of the way.
     
    Minnesota has played the AL East the toughest this season (going 19-14), while nearly splitting with divisional foes (26-25). Despite holding down the second spot in the division, the Twins will face plenty of tough pitching matchups the rest of the way. Kluber, Sale, and what might be an improved Verlander looming, earning a playoff berth will be a must.
    However, the Twins also have a few trump cards at their disposal this September. Instead of looking to give playing time to those who have paid their due, Molitor and Terry Ryan stand to benefit their big league club by calling up true talent. It's safe to say players such as Kennys Vargas, Jose Berrios, and even Max Kepler have earned their way onto the big league roster. Knowing that each of them could equate to key wins helps that fact to carry even more weight.
     
    Despite being a year ahead of schedule, the Twins have parlayed getting hot again at the right time, with the ability to bolster their roster for the home stretch. Knowing what teams lie ahead, and their level of talent, Minnesota has tipped the scales in their favor. Whether or not they make it to the playoffs remains unseen, but Paul Molitor has everything point the right direction at the most opportune time.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  7. Like
    howieramone2 reacted to stringer bell for a blog entry, Recalls! Get Your Recalls Here!   
    September 1st is almost here. The Twins play Houston twice more and then they can have the luxury of an expanded roster going forward. They are certain to recall some players and a couple guys have earned a look with outstanding seasons. There are service time and 40-man roster considerations as well.
     
    This year, the Twins are in the wild card chase, so they won't recall young players just to get a look at them or grant playing time to see what they can do. The goal will be to recall players who will help them win games. Here's my thumbnail on the possible call-ups:
     
    Pitchers: The Twins probably need fortification of a overused bullpen, even though they already have eight guys pitching out of the bullpen. There are candidates for recall at Rochester.
     
    AJ Achter--He's had a good year in Rochester. He provided some innings when recalled by the Twins, although his numbers were skewed by his first couple of outings in blowouts. He's a near certainty to be recalled.
     
    Michael Tonkin--He has bounced between Rochester and the Twins, recording very good numbers in Triple A, but not doing enough to stay around with the major league club. Tonkin is a big hard-thrower who should provide strikeout potential. I'm sure he'll get yet another shot next month, but so far his development has been a disappointment.
     
    Alex Meyer--Bust? Maybe, but he has put together a pretty good stretch out of the bullpen for the last three weeks. Since August 1st, he has allowed only two runs in 16 innings, walking seven, while fanning 14. Meyer has a big fastball and potential to develop other plus pitches. If the Twins were out of the race, he probably would get a bunch of innings. As it is, he isn't certain of a recall--his overall numbers aren't very good. I think the Twins will recall him and see if maybe something has clicked for the big right hander.
     
    JO Berrios--Without question, his possible recall will be the most discussed on this site. Berrios is young, hard-working and has mastered two levels in 150+ innings of work in the minors. He has been exclusively a starting pitcher, but could be used as a key bullpen piece because of the number of innings his young arm has thrown. Business considerations are also present for Berrios. He isn't on the 40-man roster and adding service time now may cost the Twins money and a prime season from a guy who might become an ace. Finally, and this is my opinion, it would be nice to reward someone who has had a great minor league season, on the verge of dominant. I think the Twins will resist recalling Berrios for business and innings reasons, but if injury or ineffectiveness (I'm looking at you Ervin Santana!) present a clear role for him, they will call up their top pitching prospect.
     
    Position Players: The Twins have operated most of the second half with a three-man bench, hardly the optimum number of bench players. Certainly they will add a couple of hitters, looking for someone to provide a long ball or key pinch hit. Playing time on the field could be tough to get, especially with Aaron Hicks due to return from the disabled list on September 3rd.
     
    Kennys Vargas--Vargas has had a disappointing year, starting the season as the Twins' DH, but not holding the job. He has been demoted twice, the second time to AA. The numbers aren't dominant, but Vargas has done well since his second demotion. There is clearly a need for a pinch-hitter with power potential and Vargas would be the first candidate for that spot. Kennys would also be a near-lock to be on the 25-man roster if the Twins squeak into the playoffs. I expect Vargas on the bench for the Twins game on Tuesday vs. the White Sox.
     
    Oswaldo Arcia--Similar story to Vargas. He didn't set the world on fire or address his weaknesses while starting the season as the Twins' left fielder. Disabled, then demoted, he has failed to thrive. One hot streak has been overwhelmed by terrible offensive numbers. We don't know if the problem is physical or mental, but right now Arcia can't help the contending Twins to win games. I can't see him being recalled.
     
    Danny Santana--Yet another young Twins starting position player who disappointed if not outright failed for the major league team. Santana has been demoted twice and is more than holding his own as a Triple A player. He provides the Twins with some versatility (shortstop and center field) and a viable pinch running option. Santana should be back on September 1.
     
    Josmil Pinto--The sad story of 2015 just might have a better ending. Pinto was injured in spring training, optioned to Rochester to "get work" and then struggled and was injured. The problem was one or more concussions, which could spell the end of his career as a catcher. In the last month, Pinto has finally gotten on the field as a DH, rehabbed in the low minors and come back to Rochester. He hit a grand slam the other day and if his hitting has recovered, he could be another bench bat. I don't know if the Twins would consider him as a third catcher or not. Regardless, if the offensive part of his game is healthy, Pinto has shown he can be a big-league hitter. I'm guessing he gets recalled, but won't don the "tools of ignorance" unless there is an emergency.
     
    Jorge Polanco--Polanco has had a good year. He has spent the bulk of the season in Chattanooga and shown he can handle AA pitching. He competed well at Triple A and had another cup of coffee with the Twins. Polanco hasn't had a great year defensively. I don't think he profiles as a regular shortstop. As for recall, I don't think it would hurt to have him recalled, but probably only after the Lookouts finish their playoff run.
     
    Max Kepler--There is a case for him to be the Minor League Player of the Year for the Twins. He is leading the SL in several categories including the "saber triple crown" of OBP, Slugging and OPS. Kepler is on the 40-man roster and certainly will be looked at as an option in the outfield next year, especially with the implosion of Oswaldo Arcia. I think that he stays put until the Southern League playoffs are over. Depending on what has happened with the Twins in those couple weeks, perhaps he will get a look at the tail end of the season. As with Berrios, he has earned a promotion based on his performance on the field.
     
    To summarize, I think the Twins recall Vargas, Santana, Achter and Tonkin for sure. I think Meyer gets another shot and Pinto (if healthy) is added as well. Polanco and Kepler are added after the AA playoffs. Arcia goes home to heal whatever ails him and Berrios is on standby.
  8. Like
    howieramone2 reacted to Ted Schwerzler for a blog entry, The Twins Final Weapon   
    August comes to a close, the Twins have rebounded from a lackluster middle of the summer, and an AL Wild Card spot is once again in the cards. Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton have paced the offense, and Paul Molitor's club is rolling. Heading into September, there's one more weapon the Twins have at their disposal however: La Maquina.
     
    Spanish for "The Machine," La Maquina describes and defines Jose Berrios in a way no other phrase can. The Puerto Rican superstar has put together another amazing season in the Twins farm system, and Terry Ryan is running out of reasons not to deploy him. With Berrios laying waste to opposing hitters, he very well could be the final missing piece to helping the Twins capitalize on their good fortune this season.
     
    A year ago, Berrios blitzed the Twins system. Generally regarded for slow-playing even the best prospects. Berrios pitched at three different levels in 2014. Making 16 starts for Fort Myers, followed by eight for New Britain, and finally a spot start for Triple-A Rochester, it appeared Berrios had arrived. Unfortunately, not everyone saw it that way.
     
    Keith Law had Berrios in the 90's when it came to his top prospect list. The Twins invited him as a non-roster guy to Spring Training, but he was shipped out rather quickly. All of it has fueled Berrios' fire. In 2015, he's done everything possible to substantiate his impressive 2014. With a 3.08 ERA in 15 Double-A starts, he's actually been even better at Triple-A Rochester.
     
    For the Red Wings, Berrios owns a 2.78 ERA across 10 starts and 64.2 innings. He's compiled a career high 155.1 IP and owns a 10.2 K/9 at the highest level of the farm. Since giving up four and five earned runs respectively in his first two Triple-A starts, Berrios has put together a run of 54.0 IP allowing just 38 hits, 12 runs (11 earned), walking nine, striking out 61, all to the tune of a 1.83 ERA. Opposing batters are slashing just .197/.252/.316 off of him, and it all adds up to Berrios being nothing short of dominant.
     
    Since being under the microscope in August, Berrios has taken his game to yet another level. With a September call-up being a possibility, the Twins best pitching prospect has reeled off performances of 12, 10, eight, and nine strikeouts in his last four outings respectively. To put icing on the cake, it was the 12 strikeout, three hit performance on August 26th that general manager Terry Ryan was in the stands for.
     
    Keeping Berrios at the Triple-A level is no doubt the business side of baseball. Not yet on the 40 man roster, the Twins would need to do some finagling to get him up to the big leagues. More than that however, his service time would begin, and Minnesota would lose out on an extra year of team control. Down the line, that no doubt could cost a team generally looking to maximize their spending.
     
    On the flip side, the Twins absolutely had no business being in the spot they currently find themselves in. Beginning to compete a year ahead of schedule, and doing so with top prospects in tow, Molitor's boys have presented an intriguing situation. With a month left of games to go, it's Berrios that undoubtedly could provide the final boost to put the Twins over the top.
     
    If the top prospect ends up being the pitcher the Twins expect him to be, he's going to need to get paid down the line. Minnesota will need to cough up the cash earlier than expected if his promotion happens, but maximizing winning potential when it's there may make sense. A worst case scenario may look like a Berrios promotion only to miss the playoffs, but that experience could prove vital in a more important 2016 season anyways.
     
    How the Twins value future cash flow and contract status will likely be the determining factor, but considering how this club has performed against the odds thus far, Berrios would be a welcomed final piece. Terry Ryan dipped his toes in the water when he traded for Kevin Jepsen and Neal Cotts, but now it's time to dive in. Unleash La Maquina.
     
    More: From Puerto Rico To The Pros: The Jose Berrios Story
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  9. Like
    howieramone2 reacted to Brandon Warne for a blog entry, WARNE: Twins Bullpen Showing Signs of Life   
    The two most recent additions to this Minnesota Twins team were to help prop up a sagging bullpen. True enough, the unit was adequate in the first half as the Twins raced out to as high as 11 games over .500. But early-season darlings Blaine Boyer and the since-demoted Aaron Thompson hit proverbial walls, leaving the Twins’ fans wondering if the club would take steps to address the bullpen before it ultimately sapped their playoff chances.
     
    And the answer as of right now is … sort of?
     
    That’s not meant to be a backhanded jab at the expense of Terry Ryan, who has built this into a team that has not only surprised people on the national front, but led the teams around them to make moves as well. Do the Tigers sell off if the upstart Twins don’t exist? Maybe, maybe not. That might be more of a reflection of the Royals — the guaranteed Central champs — as well as the surrounding Wild Card landscape, and it might just as well be where the Tigers are on their winning curve as well. But I’d have to believe just the mere existence of the Twins — 3.5 games up on the Tigers in the standings even now — played at least some part.
     
    And if that Wild Card situation daunted the Tigers, why didn’t it scare off the Twins? The teams were virtually tied at that fork in the road, and yet Dave Dombrowski — since deposed — decided to sell hard on assets like David Price, Yoenis Cespedes and Joakim Soria. Part of it has to do with winning windows and where each team is. The Tigers’ would seem to be drawing to a close, while the Twins are just starting to open theirs, even if this season is a bit like cracking them open during that first early March heatwave that sees temperatures rise into the 30s.
     
    And so rather than jumping headlong into those frigid waters, Ryan dipped his toes in by acquiring Rays reliever Kevin Jepsen.
     
    But hold the phone; aren’t the Rays right in the thick of things, too? As a matter of fact, entering play Monday they were just one game behind the Twins at an even 62-62. Unfortunately for the Rays, that still means there are five teams ahead of them in the race — including the Yankees and Rangers who are the current leaders. In a sense, the Rays figured they’d get wherever they were going, with or without Jepsen.
     
    And that’s sort of how the average reliever is viewed in today’s game. Here’s a dose of context: The Twins were a markedly better bullpen in the first half; that much is known for sure. In the first half, Twins relievers carried a 3.71 ERA. Since the break that has swollen by more than a run to 4.81, and just six teams — including the Tigers — are worse.
     
    But let’s frame those numbers in terms of the modern bullpen. Surely not everyone’s bullpen is comprised by flamethrowers like the Royals, or with two lockdown closers at the back end like the Yankees, right? Well, when the Twins were sitting at a 3.71 ERA at the All Star break, they were still tied with the White Sox for just 18th overall. Throw in FIP for good measure, and the smoke-and-mirrors Twins had the seventh-worst mark across the league, bound for regression and limited by a lack of strikeout stuff.
     
    Here’s some more context: For the season, the Twins have a 4.04 bullpen ERA. That’s among the 10 worst marks in baseball, and is backed by a 4.11 FIP that basically says “what you see is what you get.” The Twins are also dead last in strikeouts at 6.7 per nine innings. In fact, just three teams are ahead of the Twins by fewer than a strikeout per nine innings. The Rays bullpen that decided it didn’t need Jepsen to get where it’s going? They’ve fanned 8.6 batters per nine this year.
     
    To put a tidy bow on it all, here’s what the average AL reliever looks like.
     
    8.4 K/9
    3.64 ERA
    44.8 percent groundball rate
     
    No Twins reliever with any semblance of a sample size is striking out that many batters. Glen Perkins is fanning 8.2 batters per nine as the Twins’ best — when healthy — reliever, and he’s still below the AL average for his contemporaries. Recently-added Jepsen is right at that 8.4 mark — that’s in just 10.2 innings — but it’s one he’s only reached twice in the past five seasons. Casey Fien used to be able to reach that mark but has seen his cutter become very hittable over this season. Even the groundball rate is a hard one to match, as relievers should usually be able to: A. Strike batters out, or B. Get grounders, in large part due to coming into double play situations in crunch time. But the Twins still fall short of that as a whole with a 43 percent rate. So essentially, the Twins are a group of flyballing non-strikeout guys who walk nobody. In this day and age, that’s not really a sustainable bullpen plan.
     
    Going out and getting Jepsen made plenty of sense, even if it was met with trepidation. The most important part of his acquisition was that he’s under control for one more season after this, thereby not leaving the Twins viewing this contention run as a short-term thing. Jepsen brings a lot of things the Twins don’t have within — namely, throwing 95 mph — and didn’t cost too terribly much. It was a sensible addition.
     
    So too is the recent acquisition of Neal Cotts, a left-hander from Milwaukee who has gained steam as the season has gone on. At the time of his acquisition, Cotts had a 3.26 ERA that had been as high as 6.10 back in early May. Cotts has been rather good while working in low-leverage spots for the Brewers all season long. From June 1 until the trade, Cotts put together a 28-inning stretch with a 1.93 ERA, 26-11 K/BB ratio and just a .654 OPS against. He does have his limitations — he’s signed just through this season and should really only be used against lefties — but he does have value. Depending on the return when the trade is finalized, this has potential to be a shrewd move by Ryan. Left-handed hitters are batting just .179/.222/.333 against Cotts this year. Righties, however, are hitting .279/.375/.462. But again, if he’s used properly, there’s some value here.
     
    The movement of Trevor May to the bullpen was certainly a puzzling one, but it would be lying to say he hasn’t taken to that role with aplomb. Of course, he was far more than adequate in the rotation, and moving him to the bullpen is like some bizarro Peter Pan move since the rotation isn’t exactly fortified. But the numbers for May in the bullpen speak for themselves: 2.00 ERA, 20-3 K/BB ratio in 18 innings and .243/.293/.357 line against. That’s elite late-inning relief in a spot where you need it. His stuff is also sizzling in smaller doses; his fastball averaged 93.0 mph in June according to Brooks Baseball. It’s now up to 96 mph in August.
     
    And if Perkins can come back from his neck injury to be anything close to what he was in the first half, suddenly you might have something. Jepsen, May and Perkins at the back end isn’t going to make anyone forget about Wade Davis and Greg Holland or Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller, but it’s also a far cry from Boyer, Thompson and Fien. Furthermore, moving Fien into lower-leverage innings could be extremely useful as well; for all his issues, he’s still managed the second-lowest walk rate among 177 big league relievers that have thrown at least 30 innings. So while his 5.2 K/9 isn’t ideal to work the eighth or ninth with, he can still have some value working in earlier innings — especially if he faces mostly righties (.200/.222/.308).
     
    Having three lefties certainly doesn’t hurt either, especially considering the fact that Paul Molitor can use Brian Duensing as a long guy and let Ryan O’Rourke (.152/.250/.250 against lefties) and Cotts face just lefties later in games.
     
    It’s not a perfect bullpen, but for now it’s something Molitor can piecemeal together until September, when rosters expand and perhaps Ryan Pressly and even Boyer — in a reduced role — can return as well. One thing remains for sure, and that is that they’ll need all hands on deck to stay in this race.
     
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  10. Like
    howieramone2 reacted to Ted Schwerzler for a blog entry, How Do The Twins Trim The 40 Man?   
    Major League Baseball is quickly pushing towards September 1st; a day in which big league rosters are allowed to expand from 25 to 40 players. For many teams, this involves some roster reconfiguration. The Minnesota Twins are not an exception, and will need to re-evaluate who they view worthy of holding down an ever important spot.
     
    For the Twins, this season represents something a bit different, as they are in the midst of a playoff race. While they are likely going to be on the outside looking in, maximizing roster potential in September is a must. Terry Ryan and crew will need to make some difficult decisions in the coming week however. Let's take a look at some of the candidates on the chopping block.
     
    Pitchers:
     
    A.J. Achter-RHP
     
    Achter was a 46th round pick by the Twins in 2010. He has appeared in just 13 big league games, and has pitched 18.1 innings to the tune of a 4.91 ERA. Much better in the minors, Achter owns a 2.90 ERA in 366.1 IP. This seasons for Triple-A Rochester, Achter has compiled a 2.74 ERA in 46.0 innings. At this point, Achter has done everything asked of him, but his stuff profiles more like an AAAA type. He may pass through waivers unclaimed, but he's probably not the type to right your bullpen.
     
    Logan Darnell-LHP
     
    The Twins haven't called upon Darnell in 2015 after he pitched 24 big league innings with a 7.13 ERA last season. He's had a solid 2015 for Triple-A Rochester, and he recently took a perfect game into the 6th inning in his last start (he's being stretched out of late). His 3.05 ERA and 7.6 K/9 are some of the best marks of his MiLB career. Darnell is either going to be given a shot to prove it, or needs to cede way to someone else though.
     
    Brian Duensing-LHP
     
    Including Duensing on this list is less about September than it is about this offseason. Minnesota took Duensing to arbitration over the winter and settled on a one-year, $2.7 million deal. They would be best served to cut ties after 2015. The longtime Twin has been better of late, but his 4.25 FIP (fielding independent pitching) is in line with his 4.01 career mark, and his 4.5 K/9 is ugly out of the pen. There are better options out there (and on the farm), who are also much cheaper.
     
    Casey Fien-RHP
     
    This is somewhat or a mixed-emotions add for me. My trust in Fien as a late inning reliever has waned in recent seasons, but he has also remained relatively consistent. Fien is arbitration eligible in 2016, and remains under team control until 2019. On that alone, I'm not sure I'm sold on removing him. However, his declining strikeout rates (10.6 K/9 in 2013, 7.2 in 14, and 5.2 in 15) are a problem, and his FIP has steadily increased each of the past three years (3.16 in 13, 3.43 in 14, 3.62 in 15). If there's a better option, I wouldn't be opposed to exploring it.
     
    Ryan O'Rourke-LHP
     
    Back in 2010, the Twins selected O'Rourke out of a small town college in Massachusetts. He's now 27, and made his big league debut this season. Despite being a LOOGY (lefty one out guy), he's been hit around to an ERA north of 5.00 for the Twins. His career 4.15 MiLB ERA isn't inspiring either. O'Rourke is allowing lefties to hit just .156/.250/.250 while striking out 16 in 32 at bats. He's walked one-fourth of the righties he's faced though, and isn't a real answer to a shaky pen.
     
    Aaron Thompson-LHP
     
    Thompson was an early season surpise for the Twins. The former first round pick owned a 2.11 ERA and a .181/.235/.278 slash line against in his first 21.1 IP. Then the wheels fell off. Over his final 24 games for the Twins, Thompson pitched to the tune of a 10.64 ERA and allowed opposing hitters to slash .388/.444/.490 off of him. Since being demoted back to Triple-A Rochester, Thompson owns a 4.76 ERA and has just a 7/4 K/BB ratio in 11.1 IP. It's probably best for the Twins to move on from the reclamation project whether he's claimed or not.
     
    Jason Wheeler-LHP
     
    A former 8th round pick in 2011, Wheeler has had quite an eventful 2015. He's been demoted to Double-A Chattanooga twice, while being promoted to Triple-A Rochester once after starting the season there. In total, he owns a 5.73 ERA and a measly 5.7 K/9. His Double-A numbers are better (4.34 ERA 7.6 K/9), but still show little reason to be hopeful. With pitching as an asset throughout the farm, the 40 man roster spot could go to better use.
     
    Position Players:
     
    Chris Herrmann-C
     
    Much like Duensing, Herrmann isn't an immediate DFA option for the Twins. He's on the 25 man roster as the backup catcher, and with Josmil Pinto (who's not catching) as the only other 40 man option, this isn't happening now. Regardless, Herrmann isn't a big leaguer, and the Twins have some serious issues behind the dish. Over the winter, addressing their backstop situation is a must. Herrmann is slashing .159/.225/.305, which is bad (and even worse by the standards of a guy with a career .187/.254/.289 slash line). Minnesota needs some catching depth, and Herrmann doesn't qualify as that.
     
    Eduardo Nunez-Util
     
    Smoke and mirrors was what Eduardo Nunez put up for a good portion of 2015. Now the owner of a .268 average, Nunez owned a .302/.333/.508 slash line up until the All Star Break. The catch was that he played in just 22 games and had just 66 plate appearances. He's been worth 0.6 fWAR on the season, which is at least a positive. Nunez however was someone I thought could have been DFA'd prior to the 2015 season starting. Better utility options are generally out there, and as an arbitration guy this upcoming season, he's not going to be worth the expense.
     
    Shane Robinson-OF
     
    If anyone assumed their role better than Shane Robinson in 2015, I'm not aware of it. Brought in to be a 4th outfielder, he was exactly that. It was Jordan Schafer that was kept out of spring training at the detriment of Aaron Hicks, not Robinson. In his first season away from the Cardinals, Robinson has slashed .255/.306/.331. His five steals tie a career high, and his 0.5 fWAR is on pace to be a career best. His defense was a boost to a Twins outfield in flux, and he gave the club everything asked of him. Now with the outfield in a more stable situation, Robinson can be thanked for his contributions and be made expendable.
     
    Oswaldo Arcia-OF
     
    Easily the highest profile name on this list, Arcia puts the Twins in a tough spot. He has played just 19 games in the big leagues this season, and is not deserving of a September callup. Despite a career best .276/.338/.379 slash line at the MLB level, he compiled 15 strikeouts and just four walks. Despite being a power guy (34 HR the last two seasons), he swings and misses far too often. At Triple-A Rochester, Arcia owns a .206/.265/.385 slash line with 11 home runs 75 strikeouts and just 17 walks. He has hit just .108/.202/.176 since July 21, and his attitude combined with effort have been in question most of his career. Out of options going forward, Minnesota dealing him this offseason seems like a good avenue to explore.
     
    With a farm system ready to overflow with prospects, and some worthy September call ups not being on the 40 man roster, Minnesota will need to begin some turnover. Abover are a few of the names to keep eyes on. As the Twins look to get back into a yearly playoff picture, Minnesota will need to fill the 40 man with more quality than quantity types.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  11. Like
    howieramone2 reacted to Ted Schwerzler for a blog entry, Tyler Duffey Is Turning Heads   
    Tyler Duffey twirled his second straight impressive start for the Minnesota Twins as they took on the Orioles in Baltimore. The 24 year-old righty mowed down eight Orioles hitters, and he was on cruise control from the word go. As he's now made it two straight impressive starts, heads are starting to turn. The question is, should they be? And why wasn't Twins Territory already on notice?
     
    Duffey was a 5th round pick out of Rice University by the Twins back in 2012. This season, he saw his first eight starts at Double-A Chattanooga, where he was the Opening Day starter. In and of itself that's noteworthy, considering it was Duffey (not Jose Berrios), that manager Doug Mientkiewicz gave the ball to kick off the season. He made that decision look wonderful as Duffey worked 6.2 innings giving up just four hits while striking out 10 Montgomery Biscuit batters. Since, he hasn't looked back.
     
    On the season, Duffey has struck out eight or more batters in a game six times in 25 starts. He has 10 and 12 strikeout performances, and his eight strikeouts against the Orioles on Thursday night were the most by a Twins pitcher since July 5 when Ervin Santana sat down eight Royals. In his 25 starts, Duffey has given up more than three earned runs just five times, and he's held team scoreless ten times.
     
    In 2015, the Twins have been aggressive with the consistently impressing Duffey. After pitching to the tune of a 2.56 ERA across eight Double-A starts (while owning a 9.3 K/9), Duffey found himself at Triple-A Rochester. The success came with him as he compiled a 2.72 ERA across 13 starts. After a tough first test at the big league level, it appears Duffey has arrived for the Twins too.
     
    Starting against the Cleveland Indians and Baltimore Orioles, Duffey has put together 13.2 innings of impressive pitching. He's surrendered just 11 hits, two earned runs, and five walks, all while fanning 15 batters. Across those two starts, opposing hitters are batting just .224/.296/.265 off of him. By all early indications, it would appear as though Duffey is here to stay.
     
    8.08, 6.44, 6.25, and 5.53 are the Twins current starters K/9 (May, Gibson, Milone, and Santana). Duffey finds himself the owner of a 9.19 mark through his first three big league starts. On a team starved for strikeouts, Duffey is providing the gold standard.
     
    As he continues to see turns in a major league rotation, Duffey will only have a chance to get better. Currently throwing his hammer curve right around 30% of the time, the Twins have to be ecstatic about just how good of a pitch the former Rice Owl has at his disposal. Duffey is also getting batters to chase a healthy amount in generating swings at pitches outside of the zone just over 35% of the time. It's safe to say he's working into a groove, and making the game come to him.
     
    A driven, motivated, and level-headed individual, Tyler Duffey has the opportunity to be a key cog for winning Twins teams in the years to come. Although not billed with the hype of other top pitching prospects, Duffey's performances are begging you to take notice all on their own.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  12. Like
    howieramone2 reacted to Shane Wahl for a blog entry, Top 30 Twins Position Player Prospects   
    It is time for part 2 of my mid-season prospect list. Here are the top 30 position player prospects in the Twins system:
     
    1. Byron Buxton (1): CF, 12-18-93
    2015 status: Buxton is basically done with minor league baseball. He got injured again, but should be back with the Twins in September. ETA: already arrived.
     
    2. Miguel Sano (2): 3B, 5-3-93
    2015 status: Has obliterated the baseball after his promotion to the Twins. He is also done with minor league baseball. Sano will be used as the DH primarily for the rest of this year, but the Twins should be shopping Trevor Plouffe in the offseason. ETA: already arrived.
     
    3. Jorge Polanco (3): SS/2B, 7-5-93
    2015 status: Promoted to the Twins for one game and then moved to Rochester from Chattanooga. His bat is ready, not he just needs to get his SS defense up to acceptable standards. ETA: 2015.
     
    4. Max Kepler (6): OF/1B, 2-10-93
    2015 status: In the midst of a breakout season that is really pushing the envelope for the Twins. I would like to see a move up to AAA and then a September call up. Outstanding to see Kepler develop in this way this year. Could be trade bait. ETA: September 2015, or 2016 after Twins roster shakeup in offseason.
     
    5. Nick Gordon (5): SS, 10-24-95
    2015 status: The youngster struggled offensively initially at Cedar Rapids, but is really hitting his stride. Defense is great. ETA: 2019
     
    6. Adam Walker (7): RF, 10-18-91
    2015 status: He is having a great season. Homers and strikeouts abound, but he is also hitting a bit better overall and has an .899 OPS. Also trade bait. ETA: September 2015 for some fun homers, or else 2016 after some AAA time.
     
    7. Amaurys Minier (8): OF/1B, 1-30-96
    2015 status: Getting moved to Elizabethon will be a bit of a challenge initially, but he should be fine. He could have a monster season. ETA: 2020.
     
    8. Lewis Diaz (11): 1B, 11-19-96
    2015 status: Getting used to playing in the States. Born on the day I got my driver's license. Taking it slow, obviously, but Diaz is about as fun as any prospect to watch in anticipation for the rest of the year. ETA: 2021.
     
    9. Wandy Javier (NR): SS, 12-29-98
    2015 status: Just signed by the Twins to a $4 million bonus, the SS could top this list within two years. Looks like a good all-around player, both offensively and defensively. ETA: 2022.
     
    10. Travis Harrison (9): LF/RF, 10-17-92
    2015 status: Harrison is a good all-around hitter, who is fully in the OF this year. The power still has not come, however, and this is going to force him down the list. Harrison is definitely someone the Twins should try to shop in some package in the offseason, or if they really want to trade for a bullpen arm for the stretch run in 2015. ETA: September 2016.
     
    11. Levi Michael (10): 2B, 2-9-91
    2015 status: Michael has battled an injury again this season. When actually healthy, he is good. He has an .807 OPS for Chattanooga this year and is back to stealing bases. He is slugging substantially more this year, which is interesting. Given everyone above him, Michael is in Harrison's camp as trade material. ETA: September 2016.
     
    12. Travis Blankenhorn (NR): 3B, 8-3-96
    2015 status: Drafted in the third round, the Twins sent Blankenhorn to the GCL. Nice pick, good bat. ETA: 2020.
     
    13. Niko Goodrum (14): SS/3B/CF, 2-28-92
    2015 status: Promoted to Chattanooga after an OK start in Fort Myers. He always threatens to push that OPS over .700 . . . time will tell. Great speed. Adding CF to his resume is interesting. Good end up being a more athletic and bigger version of Eduardo Escobar. Still relatively young. ETA: September 2016.
     
    14. Dalton Hicks (20): 1B, 4-2-90
    2015 status: Hicks was smashing the ball in Chattanooga before getting injured. He has been up and down my lists over the past few years now. ETA: September 2016.
     
    15. Tanner English (18): CF, 3-11-93
    2015 status: Has hit a bit of a snag with his first full season, but the steals and defense are intriguing enough. He also draws a good amount of walks. Only grounded into one double play all year, which is crazy. ETA: 2018.
     
    16. Engelb Vielma (17): SS, 6-22-94
    2015 status: Slow to develop bat at Fort Myers, but that should be expected. He is inching toward similar offensive numbers in 2015 as he had in Cedar Rapids in 2014, but the stolen bases have exploded. ETA: 2017 if the Twins want a defensive shortstop, otherwise 2018.
     
    17. Stuart Turner (12): C, 12-27-91
    2015 status: As expected, the bat is bad in AA. He is a very good defensive catcher, however. A .566 OPS in AA is a bit scary and the Twins have an immediate hole at the catcher position. ETA: September 2016.
     
    18. Mitch Garver (15): C, 1-15-91
    2015 status: Started very slowly offensively, but is now coming around. Would like to see him pushed to AA in August to test his bat a little bit and get him ready for a full season of AA in 2016. ETA: 2017.
     
    19. Danny Ortiz (22): OF, 1-5-90
    2015 status: Ortiz was hitting really well to start the year in AAA, then cooled off as he was moved to CF. Maybe the two are unrelated, but I think that it is a good thing for Ortiz to add CF to his resume. The Twins should definitely be interested in his 4th OF capability if they are going to be trading some of their OF depth (Kepler, Walker, Harrison). Otherwise, Ortiz is trade bait to add in a package. ETA: would be September 2015 in about any other organization. Here, 2016.
     
    20. James Beresford (24): 2B/IF, 1-19-89
    2015 status: Beresford is totally consistent. There is basically no steadier a bat in the system. The Twins know how Beresford will produce offensively in the big leagues if they want him there. The issue for him is that he needs to move beyond being a second baseman. His future anywhere is going to be as a utility infielder, much like Ortiz's future is as a 4th OF. ETA: September 2015 wouldn't be totally out of the question if the Twins have 40-man space. Otherwise 2016 somewhere in MLB.
     
    21. Jermaine Palacios (NR): SS/IF, 7-19-96
    2015 status: Palacios is pounding GCL pitching right now after a very solid 2014 season in the DSL. Currently, he is quite slight, measuring six feet tall while being listed at under 150 pounds. He might not outgrow SS, so there is a decent chance that he sticks there. Big sleeper prospect right now. ETA: 2021.
     
    22. Zach Granite (NR): CF/LF, 9-17-92
    2015 status: Granite dominated in Cedar Rapids and was quickly promoted to Fort Myers. He is struggling some there, but should get his 2015 A+ numbers to match his 2014 A numbers. He has very good speed and some decent plate discipline. ETA: 2018
     
    23. Rafael Valera (NR): 2B/3B/SS, 8-15-94
    2015 status: Valera is another sleeper prospect. The Twins sent Valera to Cedar Rapids this year after a decent season in the GCL in 2014. Good plate discipline and speed. ETA: 2019.
     
    24. Max Murphy (13): OF, 11-17-92
    2015 status: After dominating in Elizabethon in 2014, Murphy struggled some in Cedar Rapids last year. Those struggles have continued and that is why he has fallen dramatically on this list. Still can rebound. ETA 2019.
     
    25. Trey Vavra (HM): 1B/LF, 9-17-91
    2015 status: Vavra got off to a torrid start this year before getting injured. His performance has been a pleasant surprise. When healthy he has hit and hit for power. ETA: 2018.
     
    26. Brian Navarreto (HM): C, 12-29-94
    2015 status: Navarreto got off to a terrible start at the plate, then was injured, and now has been better since returning. His defense is good to very good, but the bat is really lagging. He will certainly be in Cedar Rapids for much of 2016. ETA: 2019.
     
    27. Zach Larson (19): OF, 10-8-93
    2015 status: Really going backwards this year, not even really close to his 2014 numbers in Cedar Rapids. He is still young, though, so there is time for him there to work it out. ETA: 2019.
     
    28. Trey Cabbage (NR): 3B, 5-3-97
    2015 status: Drafted in the 4th round, Cabbage could be a bit of a steal in the draft. He is starting out for the GCL. ETA: 2022.
     
    29. Tyler Kuresa (HM): 1B, 11-17-92
    2015 status: I had high hopes of a breakthrough season for Kuresa, but Cedar Rapids was very rough for him. He was then demoted to Elizabethon where he immediately started hammering the ball. After only 63 plate appearances there, the Twins have promoted him back to Cedar Rapids for round two. ETA: 2019.
     
    30. LaMonte Wade (NR): CF, 1-1-94
    2015 status: Drafted in the 9th round, the Twins sent wade to Elizabethon where he is off to a very impressive start. ETA: 2020
     
    Honorable Mentions: Kolton Kendrick (1B), Jorge Fernandez (1B/C), Rainis Silva ©
     
    Overview: This list doesn't compare to the pitching prospects list in terms of depth, though the high-end talent is probably better overall. You can see where it really starts to breakdown with Mitch Garver at 18 as a kind of "hope he doesn't fizzle" status and then the minor league veterans in limbo at AAA in Ortiz and Beresford. Palacios and Valera are two guys to watch. The rest at the end have real questions about either performance or the lack thereof (2015 draftees). Wade is another fun guy to see develop this year.
     
    Breakdown by ETA:
    2015: 1. Buxton, 2. Sano, 3. Polanco.
    2016: 4. Kepler, 6. Walker, 10. Harrison, 11. Michael, 13. Goodrum, 14. Hicks, 17. Turner, 19. Ortiz, 20. Beresford.
    2017: 18. Garver.
    2018: 15. English, 16. Vielma, 22. Granite, 25. Vavra,
    2019: 5. Gordon, 23. Valera, 24. Murphy, 26. Navarreto, 27. Larson, 29. Kuresa.
    2020: 7. Minier, 12. Blankenhorn, 30. Wade
    2021: 8. Diaz, 21. Palacios,
    2022: 9. Javier, 28. Cabbage
     
    Part 3 will be a combined list of pitchers and position players
  13. Like
    howieramone2 reacted to Ted Schwerzler for a blog entry, The Best Trade The Twins Never Made   
    Generally, lights out relievers are hard to come by. While you can put together a makeshift bullpen in hopes of finding things that work, the really good ones often get hung onto. With the emergence of closer importance for teams, seeing the Craig Kimbrel's and Aroldis Chapman's of the big leagues dealt on a yearly basis often doesn't happen.
    On July 18, 2014, it did happen though.
     
    A guy with a 2.78 career ERA, 299 saves, and a 9.0 K/9 was sent packing. Not only are those great numbers for a bullpen guy, but they rank amongst some of the best when it comes to closers. That pitcher was the San Diego Padres Huston Street. In being sent to the Los Angeles Angels, the Padres expected a return, and that's exactly what they got.
    The Padres welcomed the Angels number one, six, and eighth best prospects, as well as fourth top 20 inclusion (per FanGraphs). In retrospect, the Angels fleeced the bulk of their already mediocre farm system in return for elite level back end of the bullpen help.
     
    So, why does this matter? Last season, the Twins dangled the idea of dealing their home grown closer. To be fair, I was even on board with the idea (sadly). Without a doubt, the lack of a move, may go down as one of the best decisions in Twins history.
    For a losing team, and one in it's fourth year of significant losing, having a great closer seems like somewhat of a luxury. Even when 30 or more saves get racked up, does it really matter in the context of 90 losses. What about making the farm system even stronger for when the winning returns? Sure it would look like a bad move after just extending Perkins a contract extension, but who cares right?
     
    The Twins put their foot down, they said no. No to dealing the local product. No to selling of a irreplaceable asset. No to all of it, and now, Perkins is making them feel great about the decision all over again.
    Sure, Perkins was a very good closer last season. Late in the year injury problems inflated his ERA, but his 34 saves and 9.6 K/9 were some of the best marks of his career. He was coming off a 36 save season in 2013, a 2.30 ERA, an 11.1 K/9 mark, his first All Star Game appearance, and that shiny new four-year, $22.18 million contract. Nothing he did last season though could have prepared the Twins for what was to come.
     
    There was a spring training injury scare, but Perkins insisted he was good to go this season. He wasn't going to miss time, and he was ready to compete. Glen Perkins was right.
    In 2015, Perkins is 28-28 in save opportunities and leads the American League in that category. He's walking batters at a career best 1.2 BB/9 rate and his 0.830 WHIP is the best of his career. Not only is his season impressive, but Perkins recent run has been impressive as well. He's yet to give up a run since May 31 (a stretch of 14 games and 14.1 IP). In that timeframe, Perkins has struck out 15, walked just two, allowed only four hits, and picked up 10 saves.
     
    Unlike other back end of the bullpen options, Perkins does it differently. Having thrown just four pitches 96 miles per hour or faster this season, it's his slider that has been devastating. Used a career high (as a closer) 26.7% of the time, Perkins has kept hitters off balance and outworked them at the plate.
    Now fresh off his third straight trip to the midsummer classic, Glen Perkins looks every bit the part of one of the best in team history. Tying Eddie Guardado for third on the list right before the All Star break, he will set his sights on Rick Aguilera and Joe Nathan as the season draws on.
     
    With his current pace set at 51 saves when the season comes to an end, Perkins is targeting what would be a tie for the 9th best single-season mark in Major League Baseball history. While an uphill battle, Perkins has overcome being a failed starter, a timeshared reliever, and an injured closer to boast the best season of his career.
    It's pretty safe to say dealing Glen Perkins is the best trade the Twins never made. At 32, signed through 2017, and with no intention of playing anywhere else, Perkins should have Twins fans on their feet in the 9th for years to come.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  14. Like
    howieramone2 reacted to Ted Schwerzler for a blog entry, Twins Are Poised For Playoffs   
    We have officially hit the All Star Break in Major League Baseball, and while the stretch run is where the pretenders and contenders are sorted out, the Twins are currently one of the best teams in baseball. It feels odd to say, given what expectations were, and what results have been, but it rings absolutely true. At the break, Minnesota owns the second best record in the American League, and their own best mark since 2008. It's no longer too early to suggest the playoffs are in sight.
    44, 40, 36, and 41, those are the win totals for Minnesota at the break over the last four seasons. Each of those years, the Twins went on to lose 90 or more games. It's probably not fair to compare a winning team to those of futility, so take a look back to 2010 when Minnesota last won the AL Central with 94 wins. At the All Star Break, Ron Gardenhire's Twins checked in at 46-42, or behind their current pace for those playing along at home.
     
    Coming into the season, the Twins had plenty of question marks. They were viewed as a year or two before making their turnaround, Paul Molitor was a first year manager, and the big free agent signing made to bolster the pitching staff was shelved before meaningful games even started. At the artificial halfway point, the Twins have answered more questions than they haven't, and it's now fair to start to wonder just how far they can climb.
    Pitching was going to once again be something to monitor for Minnesota. finishing in the doldrums of Major League Baseball in virtually every pitching category in recent years, changes needed to be made. As things stand, Minnesota owns the 15th best ERA in the big leagues, and both Kyle Gibson and Tommy Milone rank amongst the top 15 ERA leaders in the American League. Twins starters have combined for 789.2 IP as well as 45 quality starts, again putting them right in the middle of the pack.
     
    The results have been accomplished along the same lines as the Twins have become synonymous with however. Pitching to contact, Twins starters have allowed a .269 BAA (28th in MLB), and struck out just 537 batters (last in MLB). It's not smoke and mirrors, but rather pounding the strike zone and making opposing hitters beat them, a strategy that has thus far panned out.
    At points this season, the Twins offense looked like it was in need of a boost. With Kennys Vargas and Oswaldo Arcia struggling, the pop has since come from a second basemen and a 40 year old. Brian Dozier is having an MVP caliber season, and his 18 home runs put him on pace to be the first Twins player to reach 30 home runs since Josh Willingham in 2012. Torii Hunter has been every bit the defensive liability he was imagined, but his bat (14 HR 49 RBI 15 2B) has produced at a vintage level.
     
    While winning, the Twins have also been afforded the opportunity to usher in the future. Eddie Rosario has played an excellent outfield for Minnesota, and his .284 average is amongst the best on the ballclub. Byron Buxton was able to debut prior to the All Star Break (and should be back not too long after it), and Miguel Sano has set the world on fire.
    In fact, instead of needing to deal for another Kendrys Morales type bat this season, the Twins traded with themselves in inserting Sano into the lineup. In his first 11 games, he's hit two home runs, driven in eight, doubled four times, and raced out to a .378/.489/.649 slash line. His power was expected to play, but Sano has been every bit the elite prospect he was billed to be.
     
    Looking down the line at the rest of the season, the Twins future has become much more clear. With far fewer questions looming, they can focus on two keys principles. First, the organization must make a trade for some bullpen help. So far, Molitor has pieced the back end of his bullpen together, and it's starting to blow up big time.
    Blaine Boyer has given the Twins more than they could have imagined, but he's on pace to be one of the most taxed relievers in all of baseball. Brian Duensing and Casey Fien have been up and down, and Minnesota has filled in the gaps with different pieces at a revolving door pace. In fact the only sure thing in the Twins pen is All Star closer Glen Perkins. Having saved 28 of 28 opportunities, he owns a sparkling 1.21 ERA in 37.1 IP. Perkins 8.68 K/9 is also amongst the best on the club for the Twins, but he no doubt needs help.
     
    Minnesota has one of the best farm system in all of the big leagues, and dealing some depth for a quality pen arm is a must. Bringing in someone to act as a true setup man would bridge the gap from the starters to Perkins, and no doubt afford Molitor and Minnesota a few more late inning wins.
    The second focus for the Twins is to view the postseason as their new reality. Every team sets that as a goal at the beginning of the year, or at least says so. Now for the first time in recent memory, the Twins are able to act on that. Key injuries to both the Royals and Tigers have opened a door that Minnesota must step through. Having played Kansas City and Detroit both to a 5-8 record, an evening out needs to occur.
     
    At 49-40, Minnesota is just 4.5 back of the Royals while being 4.5 clear of the Tigers. In the wild card race, Minnesota owns the top spot, and is three games clear of the Tampa Bay Rays. Keeping pace in the division with the Royals should no doubt be the goal, and it's hard to imagine the Central not sending two teams to play October baseball.
    .500 would have been a great place for this Twins team to be this season, thanks to the start however, that mark is now in the rear view mirror. Minnesota is poised for the postseason, Target Field is electric once again, and the Twins hold a lot of the cards in their own hands. Buckle up, it's going to be a fun ride.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  15. Like
    howieramone2 reacted to Ted Schwerzler for a blog entry, The Twins Should Keep On Dancing   
    Going into the 2015 Major League Baseball season, the Twins knew they had some deficiencies. Of the most glaring were veteran leadership and outfield depth. Terry Ryan and crew addressed that problem in one sweep signing fan favorite Torii Hunter to a one-year $10.5 million deal. While I was critical of the move from the get go, it's played out better than anyone could have imagined.
    Torii was being sold as a veteran leader, and there's no doubt he brought that ability. From a baseball sense however, he was a clear downgrade in the outfield, and his bat absolutely needed to play to put weight to the move. So far, everything has worked out wonderfully, and maybe the best things Torii has brought to the club is his post-win dance parties.
     
    "We win. We dance." It's a moniker displayed on the videoboards around Target Field following a Twins win. Now with over 45 of them under their belt heading into the All Star Break, the Twins have plenty of reasons to dance this season.
    Of late, maybe one of the most important reasons for the Twins to celebrate is the reemergence of Joe Mauer. Arguably the most polarizing sports figure in Minnesota, Mauer has gone from a near Hall of Fame lock, to being a punching bag for many. In June, his average dipped to the .250 mark, and 2015 looked to be the beginning of what was a steep decline. Then things clicked.
     
    Since June 5, Mauer owns a .301/.385/.469 line with five home runs, 12 RBI, and a 16/22 B/K ratio. More impressive than that, he has been on an absolute tear of late. Since June 26, Mauer has slashed .388/.426/.531 with two home runs and five RBI, and in the month of July he owns a .400/.438/.633 line. Now hitting for relative power again, with six home runs on the year, Mauer has a shot to post his best total since 2009.
    Just ahead of Mauer in the lineup, the Twins have watched a legitimate MVP candidate emerge. Nevermind the fact that Brian Dozier belongs in the All Star Game, he's the best second basemen in all of baseball. 18 home runs, 45 RBI, 26 doubles, and a career best .851 OPS, Dozier is an elite level talent.
     
    While last year saw a second half slide in the power department for the Twins second basemen, skipping the Home Run Derby should no doubt benefit Dozier this time around. On pace for right around 30 home runs and 50 doubles, Dozier is having one of the best power production seasons in Twins history. On top of that, Dozier continues to flash the leather routinely in the field. If nothing but Brian Dozier went right for the Twins this season, it'd be hard not to be happy.
    On the mound, the Twins have watched years go by as pitching has been an absolute atrocity. This season however, not only has it been improved, but the team's starters have actually been a strength. Maybe most surprisingly, the Twins have enjoyed the development of Tommy Milone.
     
    Already a proven starter when the Twins acquired him, Milone took his lumps for the first season he spent with the Twins. After getting sent down to Triple-A Rochester early in 2015, he has since come back with a vengeance. Throwing to the tune of a 0.70 ERA and a .182/.200/.248 for Rochester, Milone has gone 3-0 in his seven starts back with the Twins. In those games he owns a 1.84 ERA 32/11 K/BB ratio and just a .236/.284/.345 line against. To put it bluntly, Milone has been virtually untouchable.
    It's not just Tommy getting the job done however. Fellow starting pitcher, and former first round Twins draft pick, Kyle Gibson has been equally as impressive. Expected to take steps forward this season, he has absolutely risen to the occasion. On the year Gibson owns a 3.04 ERA, 6.1 K/9 ratio, and just a 2.9 BB/9 mark. In his last five starts for the Twins, Gibson owns a 2.56 ERA and is allowing opposing hitters to bat just .239 against him.
     
    The former Missouri Tiger was always expected to be a top half of the rotation guy in the big leagues. After mixed results in his first two seasons, the Twins were hoping that the further he distanced himself from Tommy John surgery, the better he would be. It's safe to say no one expected Gibson to be amongst the American League's best in ERA, but that's where we find ourselves.
    If that already isn't enough reasons to be dancing with excitement, you can probably add in the fact that the Twins are winning as well. Holding pace with the best in the American League, the playoffs look like something more than a mirage for the first time in a while. On top of making that a reality, the organization has found room for top prospects Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano to make their big league debut prior to the All Star Break.
     
    While Buxton's debut didn't start as smoothly as hoped (and now he's shelved on the DL), the fact that he blitzed Double-A was a great thing. Although his bat will take some time to transition to the big league level, it's no surprise the difference he makes in the Twins outfield.
    On the flip side, Sano has done everything he's been asked to at the big league level. Fortunately, he's really only been asked to hit, and hit he has. In his first seven games at the big league level, Sano has slashed .455/.571/.682, hit his first home run, and driven in five RBI. Also, and maybe even more impressively, Sano owns an even 6/6 K/BB ratio. He's a week into his big league career, and pitchers have already been pitching around him.
     
    Counting up all of the reasons, and there's plenty more than have been discussed here, Torii Hunter could probably double as a dance instructor. Brought in for some veteran leadership and a hope his bat had some pop left in it, Hunter has helped to reverse a culture of losing, and make the Twins look like an AL Central power once again.
    The Twins have been doing plenty of winning, but even when they aren't, there's been plenty of reasons to be dancing.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  16. Like
    howieramone2 reacted to Brandon Warne for a blog entry, WARNE: Are the Twins Buyers or Sellers?   
    The hottest talk on Twins fans’ lips after the promotions of Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano has been whether or not this is a team that should buy or sell at the trade deadline that looms in a mere three and a half weeks. It’s a legitimate question with no easy answer, as the Twins have hung around in a heavily competitive division. And if you buy into the idea that the Tigers could fall back a bit with the loss of Miguel Cabrera, and that the White Sox and Indians have yet to play their best ball of the season — all distinct possibilities — the Central could get even wilder before the season draws to a close.
     
    The entire American League is bonkers. Coming into play Monday, the Twins are tied with Baltimore — incidentally, the club’s current opponent — for the fifth and final playoff spot. If that wasn’t enough, 13 of the 15 AL clubs are five or fewer games out of a playoff spot. No AL team is more than 6.5 games out. This hurts buying teams two-fold.
     
    First of all, any team that is ‘buying’ so to speak needs a seller. The two teams in the AL that are more than five games out of a playoff spot are Chicago — coming off a spending spree in the offseason — and Oakland, whom Fangraphs’ BaseRuns (best explained here) suggests are playing so far below their ceiling that they should be neck and neck with division-leading Houston. Dealing with Billy Beane in July can be a risky proposition for opposing teams, too. The Twins have done it before — Orlando Cabrera in 2009 — but it takes a certain need for each side to find a match.
     
    The NL side is a little different, with just nine of 15 teams within five games of a playoff spot, and four teams — Milwaukee, Colorado, Miami and Philadelphia — at least 10 games back. Each of those teams have premium talent that could be pried away, with the possible exception of Miami, but that also requires a steep price in terms of prospects — of which the Twins have.
     
    But the other complicating factor with a team being in the thick of it in a heavily competitive AL race is that even the slightest hiccup can leave you in the dust with a veritable dogpile of teams each gaining ground on someone each night. With that many teams involved, at least a few of them each will win on a given night, making any sort of a slide potentially catastrophic in even the short term.
     
    And when you look at this Twins roster, it doesn’t appear to be built terribly well for a playoff run. The same BaseRuns concept that suggests the A’s should be a potential playoff team pegs the Twins as having played like a 35-47 team as opposed to their 43-39 mark. Personally, that doesn’t appear too surprising when considering how leaky the team has been in certain facets of the game at times. The bullpen has the ninth-worst ERA in baseball at 3.88. As a group, they’ve fanned just 6.0 batters per nine — dead last across MLB — and are one of just two teams that are under 7.0 in that respect. The vastly improved rotation is in the top half in ERA, but ranks second to last in K/9 and is only about average in terms of groundball rate.
     
    On the offensive side, it’s been about Brian Dozier and a rotating cast of characters that have picked up the slack at one time or another. Dozier is the clear leader on the team with a 128 OPS+ — OPS scaled to where 100 is average — with Joe Mauer, Torii Hunter and Trevor Plouffe the only other regulars above average — and just by a few ticks. Nothing about the Twins offense — with the exception of doubles, triples and strikeouts — are among the top half of AL teams.
     
    So you don’t have an offense, starting staff or bullpen that really sticks out. Balanced teams can make the playoffs, too, but it most likely would require some sort of ‘boost.’
     
    But where would that boost come from, and where would it go? The Twins don’t really profile as a team that needs help in the outfield. Granted, there’s still no telling what exactly the team can or will get from Buxton or Aaron Hicks, but this isn’t a club in a position to shove one of those two aside for a Marlon Byrd, to throw out a random name who will be available. That’s before also considering Oswaldo Arcia — on a seven-game hitting streak at Rochester where he’s hitting .448/.484/.828 — will also probably rejoin the team at some point, too. Is a run this year so important that you can shove aside players who’ll soon be out of options to take that chance? It hardly seems possible.
     
    The rotation already has a bottleneck with Trevor May squeezed out with Ervin Santana’s return, so there isn’t really a good fit there. Similarly, trading legitimate prospects for bullpen help hasn’t exactly worked out well for this club (or any other) in years past either (Matt Capps for Wilson Ramos, etc.).
     
    In the infield it would seem only shortstop is open. Jorge Polanco had a really rough first game at Rochester on Saturday, but club sources suggested he was markedly better after some early work on Sunday — his 22nd birthday. If he, Danny Santana or Eduardo Escobar aren’t the future of the position, then a look outside could be merited. That just doesn’t feel like a Twins move either, though. The same can be said for catcher, where Kurt Suzuki has been underwhelming in pretty much every facet of the game. He’s only signed for one more year, so even a starting catcher’s salary could be moved aside if the Twins were to inquire on someone like Jonathan Lucroy. Still again, that’s a splashy move that doesn’t seem to fit the Twins’ usual blueprint, and can also be costly another way.
     
    And that way is in terms of trade cost. The Twins could move the likes of Polanco, Jose Berrios, Kohl Stewart, Max Kepler and others. Trading prospects makes sense in a lot of ways, considering the attrition rate of the average prospect versus their trade market value, but at the same time the Twins need to rely on the graduation of some of these prospects emerging to help sustain an extended window as the Buxtons and Sanos mature, and need reinforcements to go alongside them.
     
    So does trading from your depth in the minor leagues actually narrow your contention window? Maybe not, considering the team will have Sano and Buxton ostensibly for at least six years — all of which should be pretty good years for the club barring some sort of disaster — but it’s worth wondering if making a run at the beginning of their careers — and the end of Mauer’s for instance — is worth pushing all the chips in the middle for. And is that season now? Is the division and league as vulnerable as it’ll get in the short- or long-term? Maybe that is the case, considering there’s no dominating team right now. The Red Sox and Yankees are a bit more down than they’ve been in recent years, and some of the teams who were supposed to take giant steps forward — the Clevelands and Seattles of the world — have failed to step up.
     
    There’s no easy answer for how the Twins should approach this deadline, but there’s also a fairly good chance that in the next 25 or so days, the team will provide its own answer. If they’re in the thick of it in that last week in July, it’s going to be an interesting deadline for the first time in a long time.
     
    This content originated at Cold Omaha here; please consider clicking through to support the content.
  17. Like
    howieramone2 reacted to Ted Schwerzler for a blog entry, Puzzling Or Predictable: The Twins Bullpen Debacle   
    Over the weekend, Ervin Santana returned to the Twins starting rotation. After serving an 80 game PED-related suspension, the free agent acquisition came out of the gates strong. Twirling eight strong innings, Santana sat back and watched it all implode. Paul Molitor went to the bullpen, and his relievers let him down yet again.
    Most recently, the suspects were Blaine Boyer and Aaron Thompson. In a tie game over the weekend, Molitor elected to give the ball to arms not named Glen Perkins. Of the two, Thompson has been especially bad this season. After starting relatively strong, he's come back to earth and now owns a 5.01 ERA.
     
    Thompson is one of six Twins relievers this season to post an ERA north of 5.00. Alex Meyer's 16.88 ERA is easily dismissed with him only contributing 2.2 IP on the season. Caleb Thielbar also is in the group despite just throwing 5.0 innings for the big club. His 5.40 ERA looks worse however, considering he has struggled for much of the year at Triple-A.
     
    Tim Stauffer and Michael Tonkin have also failed at the big league level this season. Minnesota offered Stauffer 15.0 innings of work, and multiple months of action before moving on from the free agent signee who posted a 6.60 mark in 13 games. Tonkin has spent more of the season moving back and forth between Triple-A and the big leagues, but owns a 5.73 mark with the Twins. Rounding out the ugliness is Brian Duensing.
     
    Duensing continues to get a pass, much like Stauffer before him. Minnesota took the lefty to arbitration this offseason and handed him a one-year $2.7 million deal. His 6.52 ERA is the worst on the current 25 man roster, and his 4.58 FIP (fielding independent pitching) suggests it won't get much better any time soon. For a guy owning 4.02 FIP and 6.0 K/9 marks, the Twins have given way too many chances.
     
    Looking at who are the culprits behind the problems though, we have just identified the bigger problem. Excluding those already named, Molitor has just Glen Perkins, J.R. Graham, Casey Fien, Ryan Pressly (now injured), and Blaine Boyer at his disposal.
     
    Perkins is now doubt in the midst of the best season of his career. His 1.31 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and major league leading 27 saves have contributed to a 1.0 fWAR thus far. Unfortunately, Molitor can't only rely on Perkins out of the pen (even if he should have in Santana's first start).
     
    Fien is a setup man, saved for the 8th inning. Even despite that, his 3.86 ERA and ugly 4.9 K/9 mark has led to some ugly blowups for the Twins this year. Graham has performed well, but is still getting just his first action above Double-A, and remains susceptible to vulnerability the more he is used. Boyer has no doubt worked out better than his ex-Padres teammate Stauffer, but Molitor has had to rely on him far too often. A 4.09 FIP suggests that the 2.63 ERA has plenty of room to rise.
     
    With a bullpen full of uncertainty, and a closer that can only do so much, Molitor has had to get creative. Looking around the organization though, the pool is running empty. Tonkin and Thielbar have been afforded opportunities (albeit in short bursts). Triple-A Rochester offers little else unless tweener types like Logan Darnell (2.40 ERA AAA/7.13 ERA MLB career), Lester Oliveros (3.79 AAA/7.11 ERA MLB career), or A.J. Achter (2.15 AAA/3.27 MLB career) do anything for you.
     
    The hope was that some of the Double-A bullpen would make its way to the big leagues in 2015. Since, Nick Burdi has been demoted to Fort Myers, Jake Reed has struggled mightily, Zack Jones has fallen off, and only recently promoted J.T. Chargois has excelled. It all adds up to the Twins being in a relatively difficult place.
    While there may be potential answers in the future (with the hope that Tyler Jay would add to that equation), there doesn't appear to be any on the near horizon. The Twins have played above water most of the 2015 season, and while sustaining the roll would be nice, doing so without a competent bullpen is going to be quite the task.
     
    In order to acquire a reliever capable of being more than a band-aid, teams will be asking for some of the Twins minor league depth. Knowing that bullpen options are few and far between, Minnesota may be best positioned to oblige and fix what appears to be a glaring problem. Right now, getting to the 9th inning with a lead provides all but a lock scenario. However, having only done that 27 times over the course of 82 games, Minnesota has left way too much on the table.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  18. Like
    howieramone2 reacted to Cody Christie for a blog entry, Cody's Midseason Top Prospects: 11-20   
    Over at Twins Daily, we have been counting down the Twins system's top prospects as part of our midseason update. This allows for players like recent first round pick Tyler Jay to fit into the Twins overall prospect rankings. There is plenty of depth in the Twins system so there are some very good players outside the top 10 rankings.
     
    Some players like Byron Buxton and Eddie Rosario will likely use up their rookie eligibility this season and graduate out of the rankings. This means other players just outside the top 10 will find themselves in the mix for a higher ranking spot during the coming off-season.
     
    These are my rankings so there are some differences from the Twins Daily compiled list (Alex Meyer was in the top 10 at Twins Daily and he checks in at number 12 below). Check out the rankings below and feel free to start a conversation about these players in the comment section.
     
    11. Lewis Thorpe, LHP
    2015 Level(s): N/A (Tommy John surgery)
    Thorpe had Tommy John surgery this spring and will miss all of the 2015 season. This still takes nothing away from the type of impact pitcher he could be. He's still a teenager so at this stage missing an entire season shouldn't impact his long-term potential. Thorpe was almost four years younger than the other pitchers in the Midwest League last season. He's a player to be excited about and he should be back in the Twins Top 10 Prospects by the end of the season.
     
    12. Alex Meyer, RHP
    2015 Level(s): AAA, MLB
    It hasn't been the start to the 2015 season that Alex Meyer imagined. After struggling in the rotation to begin the year, Meyer has been moved to the bullpen to regain some confidence. Things have been going well for Meyer so it will be interesting to see if the Twins use him as a bullpen arm the rest of the season or if they will move him back into the rotation. The Twins are going to want him to be a starter but that might not be the role he is destined for at the big league level.
     
    13. Chih-Wei Hu, RHP
    2015 Level(s): High-A, AAA
    Hu burst onto the scene last season by compiling some stellar numbers at Elizabethton and Cedar Rapids. He's pitched most of this season at Fort Myers with even better results. The Twins have so much confidence in him that they allowed him to make a spot start at Rochester. Hu was six years younger than the average age of the other pitchers in the International League. He's not going to blow people away but he could be a good middle of the rotation starter.
     
    14. Adam Brett Walker, LF/RF
    2015 Level(s): AA
    Walker hits the ball and he hits it a long way. There are some issues with making consistent contact as his strikeout numbers continue to rise as he moves through the Twins system. On a team that includes Miguel Sano and Max Kepler, he's leading the minor leagues in home runs. There are some flaws with his game and that's one of the reasons he isn't ranked higher. Because of those flaws, it will also be interesting to see how the Twins approach his promotions for the rest of the season.
     
    15. Tyler Duffey, RHP
    2015 Level(s): AA, AAA
    Duffey pitched his way from High-A to Triple-A in 2014. This left some high expectations for him entering the 2015 campaign. He pitched very well in the Southern League to start the season and has since gotten the bump up to Rochester. There have been a few hiccups since his promotion but he's still only 24 and he's seen his strikeout rate make a big jump this season. If that trend continues, he could get a chance to start with the Twins in the next couple years.
     
    16. Nick Burdi, RHP
    2015 Level(s): AA
    Burdi opened the year in many Twins Top 10 lists. He's collegiate record and success last season made many think he'd be a fast riser in Minnesota's system after the team took him in the second round a year ago. Things have gone poorly this season as Burdi is walking a lot of batters and giving up hits by the bushel. The batters are more experienced at Double-A but Burdi's going to need a strong second half or he might drop out of the Twins Top 20.
     
    17. Travis Harrison, RF/3B
    2015 Level(s): AA
    Harrison can get lost in the shuffle of some of the bigger named power prospects in the Twins system but he continues to compile some decent numbers. He's moved through the system consistently and his slugging percentage is over .400 again this season after being below that mark last year. Harrison's playing right field for the first time in his career and he's already matched his career high with three outfield assists. He could still surprise some people if he makes some subtle improvements.
     
    18. Taylor Rogers, LHP
    2015 Level(s): AAA
    The 2014 season marked the first time in his career that Rogers didn't pitch at multiple levels in the Twins system. He still put up some strong numbers at Double-A and the team rewarded him with a trip to the Arizona Fall League to face some of the best prospects in the game. He pitched well in the AFL and some of that experience has helped him to be successful to start the 2015 campaign. Rogers might never make a Twins rotation but he's left handed and he continues to find success.
     
    19. Stuart Turner, C
    2015 Level(s): AA
    Turner has struggled offensively to start 2015 but the Twins have a lot riding on some of the younger catchers in the organization. In fact, the Twins took three catchers in the first nine rounds of the 2013 draft. Turner's real claim to fame is his defensive skills and ability to call a game. Some of his offensive struggles could be from the Twins moving him aggressively. Time will tell if he can make the adjustments and turn himself into an everyday big league catcher.
     
    20. Felix Jorge, RHP
    2015 Level(s): Low-A
    Jorge struggled so much during his stint with Cedar Rapids last season that the Twins sent him back to Elizabethton. This year has been much improved as Jorge has been a mainstay in the Kernels' rotation while showing better control and command of the strike zone. Minnesota might have to take the slow and steady approach with Jorge but there's enough upside to keep an eye on him.
  19. Like
    howieramone2 reacted to Ted Schwerzler for a blog entry, Alex Meyer: Destined To Stick   
    The time is now for the Minnesota Twins and Alex Meyer. On the heels of his recent promotion to the big leagues, Minnesota will now get to experience their return for Denard Span. With Meyer set to make his major league debut, there's no doubt that he wants to stick after his long awaited promotion. The good news, he should be expected to do just that.
    Heading into the season, Baseball Prospectus ranked Alex Meyer as their 14th best prospect. At that time, he was still a starting pitcher, and that no doubt contributed to the high ceiling. Although he will debut with the Twins out of the pen, it's probably best to assume the door to the rotation isn't yet closed.
     
    After struggling to the tune of a 7.09 ERA and 41/24 K/BB ratio as a starter this season for Triple-A Rochester, it became apparent that the Twins would need to get creative. At 25 years old, there's no doubt that Meyer's "prospect" status was waning thin, and getting him to a competitive level in the big leagues was a must. If the rotation wasn't going to be the stepping stone to do so, the bullpen then made a lot of sense.
    With plenty of scouts and front office personnel believing that Meyer was always destined for the pen, the decision was pretty easy. Having an electric fastball, and the ability to ambush hitters late in games, the Twins could cash in on Meyer in another way. Since the transition down in Rochester, Meyer has proved that to be the case.
     
    On May 25, Meyer made his first relief appearance for the Red Wins. Throwing a perfect inning with two strikeouts, Meyer flashed a sign of things to come. Fast forward 16 innings and Meyer has compiled quite the impressive stat line. In 17.0 IP, Meyer has allowed just a .188/.268/.219 slash line while owning a 0.53 ERA striking out 20 and walking just six. His 10.6 K/9 would be easily the best mark in the bullpen (Glen Perkins would be closest owning an 8.31 K/9), and his decreased walk rate is great to see.
    For a team lacking the ability to strike batters out, Meyer becomes more than just another bullpen arm. Owning a career 10.3 K/9 across 394.0 minor league innings, his strikeout ability is more than substantiated. While command has always been his knock, Meyer has curbed some of those struggles in relief. Giving manager Paul Molitor a true asset in the bullpen, Meyer should be expected to be someone the Twins can lean on.
     
    Despite getting solid starting performances throughout the season, the Twins currently have pitchers with 8.22 (Brian Duensing) and 5.40 (Aaron Thompson) in their bullpen. Taking relief appearances away from pitchers clearly not capable of them, Meyer should be able to provide the Twins another added boost.
    Challenging for the top of the AL Central due to a hot start, a Twins team adding players like Byron Buxton, now Alex Meyer, and eventually Miguel Sano along the way, should contribute to an exciting summer. Although Meyer's promotion may not have come through the rotation as originally expected, he appears poised to contribute, and should be absolutely counted on to stick.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  20. Like
    howieramone2 reacted to Ted Schwerzler for a blog entry, Byron Buxton Superhero: But Who Is He?   
    June 14, 2015 a day that will forever go down as one of the most highly anticipated days in all of Minnesota Twins history. Byron Buxton, the Twins second overall pick, joined the big leagues to an exorbitant amount of fanfare. With only three Twins picks ever drafted higher (Tim Belcher, Johnny Ard, and Joe Mauer went first overall), Buxton was seen as the superhero the Twins needed. But what exactly are his superpowers?
    Now having spent just over a week in the big leagues, there has been mixed results. As with most prospects, expecting otherwordly production out of the gate is silly. After all, a young player is joining a league full of the best players in the world, and they have not yet seen that kind of competition. Expecting immediate success isn't a fair judgement, and suggesting a trip back down to the farm (stop being silly people) would also be counter productive.
     
    The fact of the matter is that for the first time since Joe Mauer, the Twins do have their superhero, but he needs to harness his powers.
    From the get go, some of them are going to play immediately. Against the Chicago White Sox on Monday night, Buxton flashed his two most impressive assets. On a dying liner to center, White Sox left fielder Melky Cabrera decided to try and score from second base. Buxton likely smirked and chuckled, and then he unleashed. The throw strayed no further than eight feet from the ground and was an absolute missile to the plate. Cabrera was dead in his tracks, and Buxton put the big leagues on notice. His right appendage is nothing short of a cannon.
     
    Earlier in the same game, Buxton led off. It was the first time in his career that Byron would be given the opportunity, and manager Paul Molitor wanted him to ambush opposing pitcher John Danks. Buxton obliged at the plate and did just that. On a 2-0 fastball, Buxton went to right field with a looper than landed a few feet to the right of Avisail Garcia. Having already rounded first base by the time the ball hit the ground, Buxton galloped into second for a stand up double. A ball that was cut off before the gap, and had no business warranting extra bases, Buxton utilized unfairly. From somewhere in another galaxy, The Flash blushed at his competition.
    Major League Baseball scouts attempt to quantify super powers into five distinct categories. Buxton has shown that he is the prototype when it comes to speed, fielding, and arm strength. It's in hitting, and power that Buxton may find his kryptonite.
     
    A career .296/.380/.486 hitter through 263 minor league games, there's little doubt Buxton's bat will play at the highest level. However, it shouldn't be expected to do so right away. Over the course of his first 32 plate appearances, Buxton has worked a 3-1 count just twice, and a 2-1 count only five times. He's been ahead in the count just 38% of the time, and he's faced two-strike counts 53% of the time. For a guy working on brandishing an elevated hitting ability, he's fighting an uphill battle. Sometime in the not so distant future, he will hit but right now, that shouldn't be expected to be his game.
    In the power department, Buxton is adept if nothing else. While not Thor like, the Twins phenom put up 27 home runs in those 263 minor league games. At a 16 HR/162 game pace, Buxton can eventually be counted upon to contribute in the slugging department as well. Just 21, the frame can still add muscle. While he'll never be the Hulk, Buxton no doubt should have the ability to banish a few baseballs in his time.
     
    As a whole, the excitement and anticipation for the superhero known as Byron Buxton is absolutely warranted. It's time to stop talking about a possible trip back to the farm, and it would be best not to over manage the budding star. Know that a complete arsenal of weapons will come, but that currently only half of them should be expected to play. Allow Buxton to be what he is on the field and basepaths, and grow through the coming months.
    Minnesota no doubt has a star on its hands, and while he may have the simplicity of The Flash now, showing a patiently observing approach could soon produce Captain America in the most desirable Twins form.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  21. Like
    howieramone2 reacted to Tom Schreier for a blog entry, The Curious Case of the Minnesota Twins’ Mike Pelfrey Signing   
    While the Minnesota Twins are a homegrown team that relies heavily on players from their farm system to sustain success in the major leagues, reclamation projects are an important part of their team construction. Once-highly-touted prospects or players that have had some big league success and saw a dip in production with their former team for various reasons are often of interest to a team in a mid-sized city looking to get the most value out of their signings.
     
    These players are relatively low-risk and high-reward based upon their perceived potential and low cost to sign. If they pan out, the organization looks smart for turning around the career of a player that was once considered a top prospect. If they don’t, they can be released for relatively little cost to the team other than the cost of giving playing time to a struggling player.
     
    For a team like the Twins, who play in a mid-sized market and have relatively parsimonious ownership, this is a way to get potentially high-end talent without high cost or long term commitment. Pelfrey, a high draft pick who had two strong years as a member of the New York Mets, signed to a one-year, $4 million deal in 2013 following Tommy John surgery. Then, in a much scrutinized move, was re-signed for two years, $11 million following a tough first year.
     
    Fifteen million dollars is nothing to sneeze at, but it is relatively cheap for a former first round pick who had two strong seasons as a member of the Mets in 2008 and 2010 — so long as he pitches like the player he can be.
    Pelfrey was awful in his first year with the Twins. He came back from Tommy John surgery faster than expected, pushing himself to get back on the mound against doctor’s orders, and felt the effects of accelerating his return timetable. He was 5-13 with a 5.19 ERA (79 ERA+), pitching 152.3 innings in 29 starts, making the $11 million extension he received the year after that much more perplexing. “He’s coming off Tommy John, he came back quickly, and we thought, ‘Okay, that’s a good starting point, but there’s more to come.’ That’s the reason,” Twins general manager Terry Ryan said when asked why the team re-signed Pelfrey. “And he showed some flashes, and he certainly showed the velocity and stuff like that, so we thought, ‘All right, he’s over the hump on the Tommy John response,’ and now all of a sudden we’re gonna get more. Well, unfortunately that didn’t happen.”
     
    He only made five starts in the first year of his second contract, finishing last season with a 0-0 record, 7.99 ERA (50 ERA+) and only 23.2 innings pitched. “Last year was awful,” says Pelfrey, who has always been accountable, even during his most trying times with the Twins, “so this offseason I came in and worked my tail off to … honor that two-year deal and be the best I could, and I thought I put myself in a pretty good situation.”
     
    Pelfrey has been the best pitcher in the starting rotation this year, going 5-3 with a 2.97 ERA (136 ERA+) in 13 starts. His play merits All-Star consideration and will likely garner a large contract for him in the offseason. A player playing out of his mind in a contract year is not unheard of — Joe Mauer hit .365/.444/.587 with 28 home runs the year before he signed his $184 million extension, and Kurt Suzuki made his first All-Star team on a one-year deal last season — and Pelfrey was certainly upset when he was assigned to the bullpen out of Spring Training, perhaps providing an incentive for him to pitch well in the rotation.
     
    Pelfrey, however, attributes his success to three things: He’s in good health, his split-finger has given him the “pitch that he’s lacked for 30 years,” and his sinker is much better. “First time in a couple years, maybe since Tommy John, I don’t have to make my sinker move,” he says. “I can just throw it, and it has that natural sink, which it always had before.”
     
    Pelfrey has had a split-finger since 2010, a year in which he went 15-9 with a 3.66 ERA (107 ERA+), but he had it revamped by bullpen coach Eddie Guardado in Spring Training this year. “To be honest with you, during Spring Training we’re watching these guys throw in the spring, and he’s throwing his splitty, and I looked at him and, jokingly, I go, ‘What is that pitch?’” says Guardado, chuckling. “He goes, ‘It’s my split finger, dawg.’ And I go, ‘That ain’t gonna work.”
     
    Guardado says sometimes he has trouble working with veteran pitchers, given that they have had a track record of success and are often stuck in their ways, but Pelfrey didn’t take much time to get the split-finger down. By the end of Spring Training he was throwing it with ease, giving him a pitch that falls out of the strike zone, which complements his mid-90s fastball, curveball and sinker. “It’s like a new toy,” says Guardado, “He worked with it every day, and I just showed him the grip. Did we talk about it a little bit? Yeah, absolutely. But he did it all on his own. I’d like to take the credit, but he’s a hard-worker, man, so it’s all good.”
     
    The split-finger, complemented by a naturally moving sinker, has given Pelfrey more confidence on the mound. His usually plodding pace has been improved upon. In many ways, the Twins have the pitcher they’ve always wanted right now. Health is always a concern for players, especially pitchers, but it’s rare for a veteran player like Pelfrey to all of a sudden have another weapon in his arsenal. It’s easy to look back and say it was a good signing now, but it took some fortitude and, frankly, stubbornness for the team to retain him after a tough first year.
     
    It wasn’t just his potential, though, that enticed the Twins; they also liked his leadership. “It doesn’t hurt,” says Ryan. “It’s always nice to have a little bit of that veteran presence in any part of your club, especially when you’re talking about the rest of that starting staff, they’re relatively young.”
     
    He was given a corner locker in the team clubhouse, and according to his teammates, he’s very approachable and has a way about him of offering constructive criticism without making a struggling teammate feel the need to get defensive. “He’s easy to talk to, he’ll come up to talk to you about certain things he sees, and he’s definitely a leader,” says Kyle Gibson, 27, who is in his third year with the team. “I think he approaches every situation like that very well. He’s not gonna come up to you and say, ‘Hey, you were really bad today, and this is what I saw.’ He’s gonna ask you questions, he’s gonna try to approach it in the most mature way possible, because that’s the kind of guy he is.”
     
    Gibson, like Pelfrey, is a sinkerball pitcher who has undergone Tommy John surgery. He says that the two were able to speak freely about the difficulty of coming back, as well as the mental hurdles every player has to go through during the ups and downs of a season. “He’s been a guy who I’ve talked to about learning how to attack with my fastball a little bit better at certain times,” says Gibson. “I’m always trying to talk to him about something just because I feel like going through the surgery, whether it’s how we were feeling last year or the year before, I’m always a guy who’s looking to learn something, and that’s a great guy to learn from.”
     
    In some ways it’s unfortunate that Pelfrey is coming into his own in a contract year at age 31. He’s a Scott Boras client, so he’s unlikely to come back on a discount, and the Twins suddenly have plenty of depth in the starting rotation. Still, for the time being he’s one of the best pitchers in the league, and it couldn’t have come at a better time. The team is finally competitive again, Phil Hughes is off to a slow start, so the team is in need of an ace, and Pelfrey has no doubt left a meaningful mark on the younger pitchers, especially Gibson. “So far I’m glad that it’s working out,” says Pelfrey, “but there’s a lot of baseball left, so we’ll just keep it going.”
     
    This article was originally published on the Cold Omaha section of 105TheTicket.com.
     
    Tune in to The Wake Up Call every Sunday at 8:00 am to hear the crew break down the week in Minnesota sports.
     
    Follow Tom on Twitter @tschreier3.
  22. Like
    howieramone2 reacted to Pitz for a blog entry, DSL Pitchers to Keep an Eye On   
    I've been a Twins fan my whole life. About 6 years ago I started paying more attention to the minor league system, and found myself getting excited about the potential of young guys. As I started to pay more attention, I found myself looking further down the pipeline to the Dominican Summer League stats to see who might be the next guys to show up on prospect lists. Of course information is pretty scarce on a majority of these players and scouting reports seems non-existent except for the higher bonus guys. While scouting box scores and stat lines is always precarious, one guy caught my eye. That player was mentioned by Miguel Sano as one to watch for this most recent spring - Alexis Tapia. Tapia will likely be heading to the Appy League next week, but has pitched 2 innings in relief for Fort Myers this year as well. And while he certainly has a work a lot to prove given that he is still in the rookie levels, I am pleased to see him getting some attention.
     
    Why did he catch my eye in 2013 in the DSL box scores? A combination of his size (6'2" 190ish) and an excellent K/BB ratio (31/5). Tapia showed well in the GCL last year as well and hopefully the 19 year old will continue to develop and give Twins fan another pitcher to dream on.
     
    As I look at this years DSL squad and some of the early season returns, there are a few pitchers with similar characteristic to those that drew my attention to Tapia. Of course, we are still dealing with extremely small sample sizes, but so far so good. While Huascar Ynoa gets more attention due to his larger signing bonus, here are a few others to keep an eye on: (Click on their name to go to their respective MILB player pages)
     
    Brusdar Graterol : The 6' 1" 180lb Venezuelan righty has pitched 10 innings across 3 outings and amassed 15 strikeouts to just 1 walk, an impressive start for the youngster who is still only 16 years old!
     
    Carlos Suniaga : Another Venezuelan righty, Suniaga turned 18 last month and is 6'2" 187. In 12.2 innings he has struck out 11 and walked only 1.
     
    Miguel De Jesus : Miguel is a bit older at 19 and comes from the Dominican Republic. He's 6'2" 175 and also throws right handed. He has been dominant though, with 22 K's and only 1 BB in 15.2 innings. His WHIP is a ridiculous 0.45 and he has yet to allow a run. Due to his older age, perhaps we could see De Jesus make a few appearances in the GCL this season.
     
    Luis Bellorin : Luis is another Venezuelan. He's 17 years old 6'1" 167. He's a bit smaller and his walk numbers aren't quite as good as the others on this list. In 14.1 innings, he has walked 6 and struck out 12. Again, the numbers aren't quite as exciting, Luis is unique to the others in an exciting way due to the fact that he's a southpaw.
     
    It will be interesting to see how these young guys develop. Obviously, they've got a long way to go to even get on the prospect radar, let alone a big league roster. However, their numbers this year suggest the Twins have done a pretty good job of adding some upside arms in the international market.
  23. Like
    howieramone2 reacted to Ted Schwerzler for a blog entry, Time For Twins To Let It Sano   
    The Minnesota Twins have played through their first third of the 2015 Major League Baseball season. As they came out of the gates slow, surprises started to take place throughout the month of May. After sitting alone atop the American League and AL Central, the calendar then turned to June. Since then, the summer has been anything but pleasant for the Twins.
    In June (as of this writing), the Twins are 4-11. In those 11 losses, the Twins have scored more than two runs just three times (with one of those times being a total of three runs). Two of their four wins have come scoring just two runs. Also in that span, the Twins have lost to run totals of one, two, and three (three times) runs. At this point, it's pretty safe to say the offense is struggling and needs a boost.
     
    Enter Miguel Sano.
    Earlier this month, Byron Buxton was promoted by the Twins. While Buxton was the organization's (and baseball's) top prospect, it was Sano who was expected to reach the big leagues first. After missing last season due to Tommy John surgery, there was no doubt Sano would need to shake off some rust. Now into June, Sano appears like he could immediately provide a boost to a struggling Twins lineup.
     
    Since May 20, Sano has hit .324/.410/.592 over the course of 19 games for Double-A Chattanooga. In that time span, he's launched four home runs and driven in 17. His 16/10 strikeout to walk ratio is in a good place, and it would appear that Sano is more than clicking at the plate. His power has been talked about since the day he was signed by the Twins. On the season Sano has 12 home runs, and he's compiled 102 longballs in his 435 minor league games.
    So far in 2015, the Twins have started both Kennys Vargas and Kurt Suzuki in the 5 hole 18 times. While Vargas may profile capable of that role, he's hit .150/.150/.150 with nine strikeouts, zero walks, and no extra base hits since being recalled from Triple-A Rochester. Suzuki has regressed from his career year in 2014 as expected, but even at his best (15 HR in 2009), he isn't a power threat.
     
    What's worse than Vargas and Suzuki getting at bats in the heart of the order, the Twins have started Eduardo Nunez and Eduardo Escobar in the 5 hole a combined 12 times on the season. The two utility men have combined for four home runs over the course of 234 at bats. Looking for power in the middle of the lineup, Escobar's .624 OPS simply isn't going to get it done.
    Now, although Sano has tormented Double-A pitching, expectations for his major league contributions should no doubt be muted. As with Buxton before him, Sano will be making the leap from Double-A when his time comes. This is definitely the right move, but the success may not immediately translate. The one thing that should however, is his power.
     
    Where Buxton's hit tool is one that is still developing, Sano commands the strike zone well (he's striking out a career low $24.6%), and has an elite level of power. Currently graded 80/80 Raw Power by Fangraphs, Sano possesses the ability to destroy plenty a baseball. His Double-A career .292 ISO (isolated power, or slugging minus average) should be more than welcomed at Target Field.
    Paul Molitor hinted that they have been keeping an eye on Sano, and his promotion could come sooner rather than later. The argument probably should be that it needs to be sooner rather than later. Sure, Sano may not hit .300 or even .280 in his first go-round at the big league level, but give him three months and you can bet on him launching 15-20 home runs.
    The Twins offense needs a boost, it's time to let it Sano.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  24. Like
    howieramone2 reacted to jorgenswest for a blog entry, Looking at the 40 man roster   
    With the depth of the Twins system, they will have several players that need to be put on the 40 man roster this winter to avoid the rule 5 draft. Are there so many that the Twins should consider trading some of them this summer? How many spots will reasonably be available this winter?
     
    With the DFA of Tim Stauffer, the Twins currently have 40 men on their 40 man roster. There is one spot available as Ervin Santana will not count until he return in July.
     
    The Twins will have some players entering free agency following the season. Those spots will be open. Those players include
     
    Torii Hunter
    Blaine Boyer
    Mike Pelfrey
    Brian Duensing
     
    Any of those players can be replaced. The Twins should not feel the urgency to extend them this summer. They might consider trading them for whatever the market will return. That is 4 spots.
     
    The remaining 36 are under team control in some form or another. Some will be eligible for arbitration. The Twins may elect not to take them to arbitration.
     
    Trevor Plouffe
    Jordan Schafer
    Tommy Milone
    Shane Robinson
    Eduardo Nunez
    Casey Fien
    Eduardo Escobar
     
    I would think that Plouffe, Fien and Escobar would be offered arbitration. If Milone isn't traded, he may also be offered arbitration. I would think Schafer, Robinson and Nunez can be replaced.
     
    Adding those three that is 7 spots
     
    The Twins have some players on the 40 man roster that might be considered close to replacement level. They include
     
    A.J. Achter
    Logan Darnell
    J.R. Graham
    Ryan Pressly
    Caleb Thielbar
    Aaron Thompson
    Michael Tonkin
    Jason Wheeler
    Chris Herrmann
    Josmil Pinto
    Doug Bernier
    Aaron Hicks
     
    Darnell and Wheeler are lefthanded and may not make it through rule 5 but have little upside. The Twins really need to see what they have in Achter, Thielbar and Tonkin this season. At their age, if they don't feel Achter and Thielbar are worth a long look on the roster, they probably feel like they can be replaced. Pinto now has red flags due to concussions. If he can't catch does he have a spot? Among this list, I think Graham, Pressly, Tonkin, Pinto and Hicks are safe. The rest can be thrown with the group that will need to be put on the 40.
     
    That is 7 more spots for a total of 14.
     
    You could probably add Suzuki, Mauer and Nolasco to the performing near replacement level list but they have too much money tied into their contract. The Twins could free up a spot if they found a way to dump their contracts.
     
    There are two players that don't need to be added to the 40 until the following year, but could get called to the majors in 2015. Buxton and Berrios. They would not be a good candidate for a September call up because of the 40 man status. The only reason to call them up would be to help the team soon. I think they will call up Buxton. With Ervin Santana's return, I don't think we will see Berrios until 2016.
     
    13 spots
     
    These are the players will be eligible for the rule 5 draft if they are not put on the 40.
     
    Bard, Luke
    Baxendale, D.J.
    Duffey, Tyler
    Haar, Bryan
    Harrison, Travis
    Hicks, Dalton
    Jones, Zack
    Melotakis, Mason
    Muren, Alexander
    Polanco, Joel
    Rogers, Taylor
    Valera, Rafael
    Vielma, Engelb
    Wade, Logan
    Walker, Adam
     
    Michael, Levi
    Johnson, Cole
    Goodrum, Niko
     
    13 spots for those and players above not yet added.
     
    I think adding Baxendale, Duffey, Harrison, Jones, Rogers and Walker are givens.
     
    7 spots
     
    Achter, Thielbar and Herrman should be safe.
     
    4 spots
     
    In summary...
     
    Hunter, Pelfey, Boyer, Duensing, Schafer, Robinson, Nunez, Darnell, Thompson, Wheeler and Bernier were removed
     
    Buxton, Baxendale, Duffey, Harrison, Jones, Rogers and Walker were added
     
    There are 4 more spots. Are there more than 4 players that urgently need to be added? Do the Twins need to trade away prospects due to 40 man roster decision this winter?
     
    Note: Thanks to TD and the organizational report. It is very likely I missed something or someone in doing this article. Any help would be appreciated.
     
    Edit: Schafer released. Buxton added to 40. Bernier removed. Fryer added. I would remove Fryer at end of season.
  25. Like
    howieramone2 reacted to Ted Schwerzler for a blog entry, The Twins Silver Lining   
    Quite possibly the most often, or even overused word to describe what may lie ahead for the Minnesota Twins in 2015 has been regression. While it's hard to assume that a three game losing streak is indicative of what's to come, there's no doubt Minnesota's offense has struggled of late. Although that may be reflective of a team that has capitalized in high leverage situations, there's something bigger at play here. The Twins offense slumping has not been combined with an all-around collapse, and pitching has been the silver lining.
    On the season, the Twins team ERA sits at 3.88; a mark that's good enough for fourth in the American League and ninth in all of baseball. Putting that into context, Minnesota is still without their key free-agent acquisition, and Phil Hughes owns the worst ERA (4.81) in the rotation. On the flip side, the biggest bright spot comes in the form of Mike Pelfrey, who's 2.28 ERA ranks fourth in the American League.
     
    Over the course of the last week, Minnesota has last games giving up 1, 4, 3, and 2 runs. In those games, the offense combined to score three total runs. Wasted quality starts have become something that has hurt the Twins in their recent slide. While the offense has been missing in action, the hurler on the mound has kept things interesting.
    The Twins have done some shuffling in hopes of sparking a lineup resurgence. Kennys Vargas was brought back to DH from Triple-A Rochester, and Danny Santana was sent packing. Vargas should add some much needed punch to the lineup as he was on a tear before his initial demotion. Eduardo Escobar leaves a lot to be desired in taking over for Santana, but the Twins could turn to Jorge Polanco in the near future.
     
    As the summer continues on, prospects like Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano should also force their way into the Twins lineup, giving them another added boost. Slumps from Trevor Plouffe and Torii Hunter shouldn't be expected to continue, and at the end of the day, the Twins still have their silver lining.
    Riding out the recent offensive downturn, the Twins pitching has been there to lead the way. Expect Ervin Santana to be a difference maker for Minnesota when he returns in July. Top pitching prospect, Alex Meyer, also looks like he could provide some immediate value. Since transitioning to the bullpen, Meyer owns a 1.17 ERA 10/4 K/BB ratio and a .148 batting average against. Despite not being given up as a starter yet, Meyer may provide more value out of the pen in the short term.
    Going into the season, and considering the recent years of struggle, it would have been hard to convince someone that it would be the pitching that kept the Twins afloat. Now as a true asset, Minnesota is in an advantageous situation as soon as they can rectify the offensive woes. That still needs to happen sooner rather than later, but for now, it looks like the men on the mound are in a good place.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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