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Going into the 2019 Major League Baseball season there were few areas on the Minnesota Twins 25-man roster that looked more questionable than the bullpen. After bringing in Blake Parker and no one else, the front office turned away from opportunities to significantly bolster their relief corps. We’re just eight games in at this point, but so far, it appears the decision to look internally may be a warranted one.
 
Despite Minnesota having a ridiculous amount of off days to kick off new year, Rocco Baldelli has turned to relievers for a grand total of 30.0 IP thus far. Across those innings, the new skipper’s faith has been rewarded to the tune of a 2.70 ERA, good for sixth best in baseball. From there, the secondary numbers tell a more cautionary tale, but it’s in avoiding real damage that the group has succeeded.
 
Coming into the game at key points following a starter’s initial work, avoiding blow ups or added opportunity is the goal of a reliever. Although the ERA of the group is a shiny tally, the strikeouts and walks are a bit concerning. Minnesota relievers have fanned just 7.8 batters per nine innings (22nd) and have allowed 5.1 walks per nine (7th worst). Dancing around the danger is a result of the ball staying in the yard. Owning the second-best HR/9 rate (0.30) in the big leagues, along with a major league best 3.0 HR/FB rate, has helped the pen to keep runners stranded.
 
Usually working with runners on base is a less than idea reality, but if you’re going to work around it, generating soft contact is a must. The 19.5% hard hit rate is a major league low by nearly 7%, and it’s allowed this group plenty of opportunity for outs when the ball is put in play. Over the past two seasons, the Twins have shifted more than almost any other team in baseball. By playing to the percentages, while generating suboptimal contact, you can expect a good deal of success.
 
Obviously as the season goes on and the sample size grows, a 5.0 BB/9 rate won’t be sustainable. Minnesota needs guys coming on that can put the ball by hitters and send them back to the dugout. Given the relative uncertainty of the group and specific pitchers, handing out free passes is also not a good plan. Those things do need to change, but there’s a pretty good skeleton to work from at this point.
 
Baldelli, and Wes Johnson, will be tasked with empowering their staff all season long. Parker is far from a proven closer, May is still getting settled, Mejia is new to relieving, and Harper is still more story than track record. Trust will be built up well into the summer, but it’s also been displayed early. Between letting Adalberto Mejia come back after a long outing to get pivotal outs against the Phillies or asking curveball master Ryne Harper to get out of a high leverage jam ,the Twins staff is setting forth a plan with eyes on October.
 
Given the relative volatility of relievers, and even more so when they are green and unexperienced, keeping regression at bay is a must. Taylor Rogers looks like a bonafide star, and Trevor Hildenberger has become a proven commodity. The rest of the group following their lead and giving Rocco a greater sense of comfort should build rapport for necessary work months from now.
 
The Twins relievers have been great in the results department to date, even if there’s warts under the surface. The opportunities will remain present, and the belief in these guys from the front office will be a key focus the rest of the way.
 
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The Minnesota Twins signed Jonathan Schoop to a one year $7.5 million contract this offseason in a bridge deal to prepare for Royce Lewis among others.
 
It seems like fans and people around the game have already written off seeing Schoop anywhere with the Twins past 2019, but the question has to be asked, what if Jonathan Schoop returns to his 2017 form?
 

In 2017 Jonathan Schoop was one of the best second basemen in baseball. He ranked like this among them (min of 120 PA):

2nd in home runs (32)

1st in RBI (105)

10th in AVG (.293)

6th in SLG (.503)

8th in wOBA (.355)

8th in wRC+ (122)

5th in WAR (3.6)

 
Fielding wasn't as good but it was good enough to pass as long as you are hitting like he was.

14th in UZR (-3.2)

8th in DRS (0)

12th In FLD% (.981)

5th in 10-40% chance to make play (27.3)

 
Overall the hitting alone puts him in the top 5-10 second basemen in baseball. He is on the Twins and is a great player to have a potential bounce back campaign.

The Twins were able to grab him as an under the radar pick up because he struggled so much in 2018. Obviously there is something with his swing that the front office was confident can be fixed. He was also dealing with a leg injury throughout all of 2018 that limited his abilities.
So hypothetically if Schoop were to repeat 2017 or even be better, what would his outlook be for remaining on the Twins in 2020 and beyond? I think there are three options.

 
1.) Jonathan Schoop resigns on a multi-year contract and a middle infield prospect is traded.

 
2.)The Twins let him walk in order to make room for Lewis, Javier, Gordon etc.

 
3.)The Twins have a bad year and trade him at the deadline.
 
4.) 
Schoop resigns and moves to third, Polanco to 2B, Lewis/Gordon/Javier to SS and Sano to 1B
 

I think al of these options except number three could really work in the Twins favor. Recent contracts for second basemen have been looking like this:

 
D.J. LeMahieu 2 years $24 million

Jed Lowrie 2 years $20 million

Brian Dozier 1 year $9 million

Jean Segura 5 years $70 million

Dee Gordon 5 year $50 million

Andrelton Simmons 7 years $58 million

 
I would imagine that if Schoop can repeat 2017 or get even better that he would get somewhere around the Jean Segura deal of 5 years $70 million. Schoop will only be 26 or 27 so signing an impact second basemen into his early 30's couldn't hurt. I would imagine if he is resigned he will have to eventually have to move over to third base in order to make room for Royce Lewis and Jorge Polanco.
The second option the Twins have will be to let him just go to free agency so the Twins keep their money and can spend it elsewhere. This wouldn't be a crazy move even if Schoop has a great year, just based on the fact that Royce Lewis, Wander Javier, Nick Gordon and others are in the minors.

 
Another possibility is one that would hurt the most but is still possible. The Twins could have another down year and swap Schoop for a few prospects. I would much rather see the Twins trading prospects for impact players at the deadline but we will just have to wait and see.
 

If Schoop is resigned it's likely he would play one more year at second base while waiting for someone like Royce Lewis to emerge. The infield would eventually be shifted all around and look something like Schoop at third, Lewis at shortstop, Polanco at second and Sano at first. . Four offensive weapons with slight defensive liability at 3 positions, but with great outfielders it balances out, right?
 

Overall I've never been so hyped or just excited about a one year contract for a player coming off a really bad year but Schoop could just be really good. If the Twins are right and they are able to pinpoint something he was messing up with his swing and get him back to his strengths, this $7.5 million contract could be a great deal.

 
Thank you for reading my Jonathan Schoop post. Go check out my seperate blog @EverydayTwinsTalk.com I would love to do more interactive articles with fans, so go visit my Twitter. (@EverydayTwins). If you enjoyed please leave a like and share with your friends.


We are now at the point in the Major League Baseball calendar where exhibition games have commenced, teams are looking at how to fill out their 25-man roster, and the regular season is on the horizon. Although a few marquee free agents remain, I’m at a point where I feel good about how what could potentially be baseball’s worst division, is going to play out. The incumbent division winning Cleveland Indians are ready to defend their throne and it’ll be on a challenger to emerge.
 
Including current PECOTA projections (as of February 26, 2019) next to predicted records, here’s how this writer has the standings for the American League Central playing out:
 
1. Minnesota Twins 92-70 (83-79)
 
No team has done more in the division to take strides forward than the Twins for 2019. While that’s great in a vacuum, no team was also able to make bigger moves than Minnesota as well. I’ve dug deeper into why I think this is realistic in a secondary piece here, but the front office must be hoping what they’ve done is enough. Despite what’s being billed as a “wait and see” type approach, I’m all in on the Falvey and Levine being vindicated in their decision making.
 
2. Cleveland Indians 89-73 (96-66)
 
Quite opposite of the Twins, arguably no team within the division has gotten worse than the Indians. Cleveland loses Michael Brantley as well as Carlos Santana. They’ve replaced the latter with Edwin Encarnacion, but there’s no outfield to speak of, and significant reliance on repeat performances. Trevor Bauer, Jose Ramirez, and Francisco Lindor all posted career year’s in 2018, all while Cleveland mustered just 91 wins. Lindor will miss the beginning of the season, and despite the rotation still being among the best in baseball, it’s hard not wondering what else to fall in love with surrounding this team.
 
3. Chicago White Sox 73-89 (70-92)
 
One of the trendiest teams in baseball right now, the White Sox are being lauded for their stellar farm system. There’s no denying that Eloy Jimenez is a stud, and he’s backed by names like Kopech, Cease, and Robert. The first starter on that list is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery though, and there’s always an incredible amount of volatility when it comes to top prospects (ask Twins fans about that.) Manny Machado would’ve moved the needle for this franchise, but instead of going all in, Kenny Williams signed friends and family hoping that would be enough. Chicago will get there, and an 11-game jump in the win column from 2018 is no small task, but that’s about where the fun ends.
 
4. Kansas City Royals 69-93 (72-90)
 
Welcome to the dreaded middle ground. It was great for the Royals that they popped up and won a World Series, as the fanbase could be looking at mediocrity or worse for quite some time. The big-league club is void of any real star potential, and the farm system is among the worst in baseball. Kansas City can’t spend big with it making any sort of a difference, but they’ve also yet to hit on any prospects that put them in a better light going forward. If you’re a Royals fan, the highlight of the season is June 3rd when Dayton Moore will have the second overall pick in the 2019 Major League Baseball Draft.
 
5. Detroit Tigers 62-100 (67-95)
 
If Kansas City is considered the dreaded middle ground, then Detroit is trending in a much better direction. The Tigers have a strong farm system headlined by pitching stalwarts, and they also hold the 5th overall pick this summer. There’s still plenty of questions surrounding both Michael Fulmer and Matthew Boyd, and Detroit is hoping to see Nicholas Castellanos take yet another step forward, but there’s some building blocks here. Miguel Cabrera is on his way to Cooperstown, but Niko Goodrum has provided some immediate intrigue in the infield. This team won’t be good in 2019, but they could certainly flip the script in the coming years.
 
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This time of the year is always exciting as a baseball fan, the start of spring training brings an undeniable energy that rejuvenates every single fanbase across the country, yes, even Mariners fans. But the last two offseasons now have brought the droning, political, and monotonous free agency cycle bleeding into the beginning of spring training. Whether it be the owners becoming greedy and selfish in their wealth, the front offices becoming wiser in how money is allocated in free agent deals, or Scott Boras wanting to piss off every single team with his negotiating style, players and teams are no longer seeing eye-to-eye and deals have taken longer to manifest.
 
Even with the shocking announcement of Manny Machado manifest destinying his way out west again, there still sits a bounty of veteran players available on the free agent market including a handful of players who would make every team in baseball better with their presence. One of those players is Craig Kimbrel, a hard-throwing righty who looks like a stunt double who Peter Jackson rejected from his Lord Of The Rings trilogy. Even with this demeanor, Kimbrel has carved out a career as one of the best closers in the game and currently sits as the 14th highest saves getter in MLB history despite being only 30.
 
Now, before I go any farther, I want to make something very clear. I have been a fan of the moves the Twins have made so far this offseason. I love the Cruz addition along with both Kepler’s and Polanco’s extensions, I like the Parker, Schoop, and Cron additions, and I have even come around on believing in a Martin Perez bounceback. I have especially been a fan of the revamped coaching staff at all levels that have included hiring a slew of progressive, forward-thinking coaches with Rocco Baldelli now at the helm of the major league team. I also love reading stories about Wes Johnson, who would probably whoop Rick Anderson if he heard him talking about “pitching to contact”.
 
That all being said, it feels disappointing as a fan to see such a large amount of payroll currently sitting there completely unused. Even the most radical fan understood that they were never going to spend like the Dodgers, but there is still a decent gap between where they are now and where they could still be within the usual parameters of their spending habits. And the size of that gap is 6 feet tall and sticks his arm out like a pelican before delivering a pitch.
 
When talking about Kimbrel’s dominance, his stats truly speak for themselves. His career 14.67 K/9 is so obscene and disgusting that even speaking it out loud could get you arrested for indecent exposure. His career fWAR of 19.0 is 14th all-time among relievers despite the fact that he has half or even a third of the total innings of some of the names ahead of him. His career ERA of 1.91 is 1st among all relievers in MLB history with at least 500 innings thrown. Yes, it is lower than perfect hall of famer, Mariano Rivera. And take a good guess where his career FIP ranks also among relievers with at least 500 innings pitched.
 
Ah, but there is indeed a reason why Kimbrel has not signed isn’t there? We all know what his career has been so far, but MLB teams care more about where your career is going from here, and as I found out in a previous article, relievers typically have a short shelf life in MLB. Kimbrel struggled in 2018 or at least did so by his standards, much like when the smart kid gets an A-. But this A- came with a higher than normal BB/9 of 4.48, a lower than normal K/9 of 13.68, a 2nd half ERA of 4.57, and one hell of a messy playoff streak that is still in the minds of everyone.
Despite what the narratives feel like for the redbeard though, his ERA last year was still just 2.74 and his FIP was a “high” 3.13. That FIP would slide in right behind Taylor Rogers and Trevor May for the Twins and be 3rd among their relievers in 2018 or by relievers who threw a full season for the Twins and only the Twins last year, just Taylor Rogers.
 
Strategically, having the sleeping dragon as the final boss in the Twins pen would have an incredible ripple effect throughout all their relievers. May and Rogers would be unleashed in fireman roles, calming down rallies before they even get a chance to begin. Trevor Hildenberger and Addison Reed can re-find their footing in lower leverage roles earlier in the game and eat up important innings before the meat of the pen can do their work. Blake Parker can go do Blake Parker things when needed and Fernando Romero can terrorize hitters at will with his disgusting 98 MPH two-seamer. In my plan, Andrew Vasquez is also here to serve up sliders at a rate that would make White Castle jealous because Gabriel Moya gives me anxiety when he pitches. Also, replacing Matt Magill with Kimbrel would take their projected fWAR total out of the bullpen from 19th in baseball at 2.1 to tied with the Astros at 4th with an fWAR total of 4.2. And changing Magill with Kimbrel in practice is a lot like replacing a flyswatter with a bazooka.
 
I’ve gushed over Kimbrel’s ability quite a lot in this article, but something that a lot of Twins fans would also like to know is that his average fastball velocity last year was 97.1 MPH. Yes, he threw 97 on average. Was there even a guy for the Twins last year to throw a single heater that fast? Maybe old man Rodney, but no one else was doing it as consistently as Kimbrel over here. And as a fan of a team that has been notoriously poor in developing hard-throwing pitchers cough cough, Alex Meyer, cough cough, wouldn’t it feel great to finally have a guy spitting fire in the pen?
 
Earlier this month, Dan Hayes did mention that there was interest on the Twins side to bring Kimbrel aboard and with recent news that the Red Sox would rather play with their World Series trophy than bring him back, the amount of teams that are in play for Kimbrel appears to be limited. While we have heard nothing as far as years and money that the Twins have offered, I can say with a good deal of confidence that there is no contract they could offer that would tank them for the duration of such a deal. I personally would offer Kimbrel a 3 year $54 million deal with a vesting option for a 4th year. That $18 million would bring the Twins to a payroll total around the number it was at last year and would make them more respectable in the AL Central battle between them and the Indians without having to sacrifice flexibility for future contracts if other young guys figure their stuff out.
 
So, Derek Falvey or whatever Twins front office member that stumbles on this article, I beg of you, sign this man to a contract as soon as you can. Twins fans would be very pleased and you would earn a good deal of credit in their eyes as they are begging for you to spend some money. Not only that, but you guys can get creative and put together an elaborate entrance plan for him as you did with Rodney, complete with flashing lights and hype music that could be heard from St. Cloud.
 
I’ll leave you with Craig Kimbrel stealing Giancarlo Stanton’s soul with a curveball that would make Bert Blyleven proud.
 
https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1048411416896659456
 
Now, does anyone know what Falvey’s email is? I’m trying to CC him this article but I can’t find him anywhere.

Right now, the Minnesota Twins have a tentative five-man starting rotation penciled in for 2019. Martin Perez was signed as a free agent to round out the group, and Michael Pineda will pitch for the first time in a Twins uniform. No matter how set the plan may be today however, there’s no denying a wrench will soon be thrown into it. How things are handled from there are worth speculating about.
 
The reality for the Twins is that they’ve burned through pitchers in recent seasons. Both in the rotation and the bullpen, no number of fresh arms have been enough. The good part of this equation is that depth is being stockpiled on both fronts and that gives us something to look at. While there’s no argument against the fact that the front office could’ve added more arm talent this winter, we’re now in a spot to consider what is readily available to them.
 
During the 2018 season players like Kohl Stewart, Fernando Romero, and Stephen Gonsalves all got their shot. Zack Littell showed up in the big leagues, and some higher tier prospects made significant strides on the farm. In 2019 though, there’s just one guy I’m keying in on, and he comes from the Land Down Under.
 
Lewis Thorpe missed two full seasons due to Tommy John surgery and then illness. Since his return though, he’s done nothing but vault up prospect rankings and lay waster to opposing hitters. At 22 last season, he reached Triple-A for the first time in his career. Through four rotation turns Thorpe posted a 3.32 ERA along with a 10.8 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9. As a lefty, he’s not the soft-tossing crafty type, with an ability to put the ball by opposing hitters. The strikeout stuff has been there throughout his whole career, as evidenced by a 10.7 K/9 across 328.1 minor league IP.
 
Recently turning 23, Thorpe should factor into the Rochester rotation from day one. Fernando Romero looks like he’ll work in Minnesota as a reliever and Adalberto Mejia needs to make the big-league roster being out of options. Those developments put Thorpe in a group with guys like Gonsalves and Stewart. Everyone at Triple-A will have some level of prospect status and be looked upon as depth at some point during 2019. For Thorpe though, he could certainly find himself creating distance from the pack.
 
It seems that while there are top pitching prospects that get focus each season, like Romero and Gonsalves last year, there’s guys that pop up and take the reigns like Littell did early. I’m not sure how the season will go for any of the guys pitching for the Red Wings, but I’d bet against Thorpe being held down. If the capability he has shown over the past two seasons is on display early, he could push for big league time soon.
 
Baldelli’s starting rotation could use some help on the back end, and despite Dallas Keuchel being able to provide that, he doesn’t seem to be on Minnesota’s radar. The emergence, and sustainability of an internal talent would be a great reality, and the Aussie has as good of a shot as anyone to provide that.
 
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It was a simpler time, and it wasn’t long ago. The 2017 Minnesota Twins finished with 85 wins and ended their season with a Wild Card loss to the New York Yankees. Although the success didn’t carry over to 2018, their centerfielder was chief among the reasons that squad was competitive. Byron Buxton won a Gold Glove, was named the Defensive Player of the Year, and finished 18th in American League MVP voting. How crazy is it to think we could see that again?
 
Back in 2017, the former first round pick was having a season of mediocrity at best. On July 14th, he owned a .218/.292/.311 slash line through his first 84 games. Then hitting the injured list and playing in three games at Triple-A before a big-league return, a new hot streak was started. Over Byron’s final 56 games in 2017 he posted a .298/.342/.541 slash line with 23 XBH (11 HRs) and 13 stolen bases. Already an elite defender, he flashed an elite bat that once had him ranked as the best prospect in all of baseball.
 
Unfortunately, after that October game in the Bronx, nothing ever carried over to 2018. A slow start was combined with migraines and eventually a broken foot that ended his season at just 28 games played and 94 total plate appearances. It’s unfair to categorize last year as a poor showing for the Georgia native when the reality is that he was hurt and simply never was able to go. Fast forward to where we are today however, and there’s optimism with the slate wiped clean.
 
The Athletic’s Dan Hayes recently penned a piece after spending time with Buxton this offseason. Added muscle and a September-sized chip on his shoulder, the 25-year-old seems determined to put fort his best effort yet. Where other players have a questionable motor, that has never been the issue for Byron. Talent and desire are all there, but the results have yet to follow the process. We know that players develop at rapidly different paces, and to bet against a guy with everything going for him, this early in his career, seems like a foolish proposition.
 
Baseball Prospectus’ well-regarded projection system PECOTA recently unveiled numbers for 2019. Minnesota’s starting centerfielder is assumed to miss some time with just 403 plate appearances to his credit. In that time the expectation is a .233/.297/.386 slash line that results in 11 homers and 17 stolen bases. Although that seems like a harsh suggestion and low bar to clear, Buxton’s career line is just .230/.285/.387.
 
Projection systems are based solely on hard and fast inputs, which is to be expected. The largest outlier in any expectation that this is where things turn for Buxton is predicated almost entirely on the human. A clean bill of health, added muscle, and determination to prove a 2018 decision wrong makes this writer’s gut feel as good as it’s going to get. I’ll take the over on that .683 OPS, and I’ll even suggest he trumps the .728 OPS from 2017. Those numbers will be enough to generate MVP votes once again, and I’d hardly be shocked if there’s an exhibition stop in Cleveland along the way.
 
Byron Buxton has failed to launch thus far, but I’ll conduct the train that says we’ll see it in 2019.
 
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I just read the article on here about punting the 2019 season. I don’t understand this narrative and get so frustrated by it. Money is not a cure all when it comes to building a team. I say this knowing I wrote an article a month ago where I discussed my frustration that the Twins didn’t spend more in the mid 2000’s to augment the team. But the difference was then you had guys like Mauer, Moreau, Hunter, Cuddyer. Santana and Nathan in their prime and they were among the best at their positions in baseball. I am all for spending money if it’s done strategically. Right now the Twins don’t know what they have. They need to find out. That means taking a breath and see if Sano and Buxton have figured things out. Can Kepler take the next step everyone believes is there? Can Berrios fine tune and become an ace. Can Gibson and Rosario prove that last year is the normal career average for them? What other young guy can step up in the rotation and bullpen like Berrios and Taylor Rogers? What can Polanco do over a full season? Can Schoop bounce back? These are all questions that will decide if the Twins win the central in 2019. (Which I believe they will) if some or most of these things don’t happen signing Keuchel or Kimbrel will not matter.
 
I am all for spending the Pohlads money as they are one of the richest families in America. But I want it done strategically and not at he cost of giving someone else a chance. Spending the money this season when there are so many unanswered questions doesn’t seem to make sense. Also Keuchel seems like a repeat of past signings such as Nolasco and Santana. Santana is considered the best FA signing we have ever had and he had exactly 2 good years out of 4. Keuchel is probably better than those 2 but he has 4 straight years of declining peripherals and just turned 31. Is this the guy we want to be paying 5/100 or even 4/72 for? I want that spot in the rotation to go to a low risk high reward guy like Perez or even better to a young guy like Gonzalves, Thorpe, Romero, Stewart or Mejia. These guys need to be given a chance to see if they can be a valuable piece to the next great Twins team.
 
Let this season play out. See how the still young guys perform. Do some of these questions get answered yes? I really like our chances of that. The great thing about Sano and Buxton is we don’t even need them to be the MVP caliber players we thought they were going to be when they were dominating the minors. If Buck hits .225 with a .650 OPS, he still is a 5 WAR player due to his all world defense. Sano can be 80% of what he was as a rookie and still be very valuable. The strike outs are always going to be there but get back to showing some patience, having some semblance of a plan at the plate. This will lead to lots of walks and 30 plus homers. Like I said earlier everyone expects Kepler to have another level. His strikeout and walk percentages are great as his line drive rate and batted balls speed. Now we just need his actual counting stats to match his peripheral stats. If Odorizzi can pitch a little closer to his career averages the Twins will have 3 above average pitchers in the rotation with a wild card in Pineda. They will have plenty of options at Rochester to cover for injuries and disappointments. The lineup is already deeper than any I’ve seen us field in years.
 
If the year goes well and we get a few positive answers then next year is when you spend the money. Resign Gibson if he has another year like 2018. At least qualify him so you get the draft pick. Go out and offer Gerrit Cole 6/210 to lead your rotation. If Romero isn’t your stud closer go out and get one. Like I said I’m all for spending money. Just do it at the right time and place.
 
Quick side note, spending money is always the quick route most fans want to see done. It goes hand in hand with making trades to immediately improve the team even if it robs the future. I was looking back at one of my posts from last year regarding a Nick Nelson article about trading for Realmuto. I said at the time I thought it would be a huge mistake. The offer proposed was Kirilloff, Graterol and another top 10-15 prospect. Let’s say that 3rd prospect was say Ryan Jeffers because Miami wanted a catcher, yes I know it would show up as a PTBNL until he was able to be traded. Would anyone think that was a good trade for us now? Giving up our best pitching prospect, a top 15 prospect in all of baseball and another top 10 Twins prospect for 2 season of Realmuto. Would a catcher make us a favorite to win the WS this year? Or even to win the Central? No and very doubtful would be the answers. We would also be getting lambasted by the entire industry for making that trade. I’m not ripping on Nick, him and Seth are my 2 favorite writers on Twins Daily. I’m just saying it gets easy to go for the Get rich Quick scheme versus taking your time.

Miguel Sano enters the 2019 Major League Baseball season as one half of the Minnesota Twins largest question mark. The front office has tied the upcoming schedule to the production of both Sano and Byron Buxton. Needing to rebound from his worst year as a professional, it seems that an important development has taken place for the former top prospect. Commitment and accountability appear evident in a new report, and that’s always been the biggest question for the Dominican Native.
 
Recently the Star Tribune’s LaVelle E. Neal penned a piece on possible extension candidates for the Twins. Within the writing he noted that the Minnesota third basemen has lost 25 pounds, which would comfortably put him in the 265-275 range. At 6’4” he’s still a very large human being, but there’s no denying that it’s a more doable number and a development that should only relieve pressure on the titanium rod inserted into his leg. For this writer though, it’s never been about the weight.
 
Despite being signed as a shortstop, Sano bulked up and moved off the position quickly. He only continued to grow and add size as he progressed through the minors, and while much of that was muscle mass, the weight became an issue in recent years. Instructed by the Twins to take conditioning more seriously, in hopes of seeing a bump in production and renewed focus from the player, Sano failed to take the direction as anything more than advice. Despite being looked at as a key cornerstone, and knowing the investment made in him, the 25-year-old simply ignored his employer’s demands. With a trip back to Single-A and a .679 OPS in his rear-view mirror, the former All Star appears he’s finally had enough.
 
Obviously, there are physical limitations to what is realistically acceptable for a high-performing athlete to adhere to, but from purely a weight standpoint I could care less. What has always seemed most important from Sano is that he buy into the vision the organization has for him and believe in their process to get the most out of himself. After posting a .916 OPS in his rookie season, the .859 OPS during his All-Star campaign left room for improvement. Strikeouts are always going to be a part of a power hitters’ profile, but a consistent command of the strike zone and the ability to punish misses needs to be a key focus. Turning 26 in 2019, staving off a shift across the diamond or to a designated hitter role is also an integral piece of the puzzle.
 
So where does this all leave us in the year ahead? If process drives results, the fact that Miguel has committed to a conditioning program (and more importantly his employer’s wishes), suggests he’s on board with believing there’s more in the tank. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections have him slated for just a .752 OPS. Obviously that number doesn’t account for his injury or the ramifications of his 2018 output. Using that as a baseline however, I’d like to bet on the over.
 
At his best, Sano is a monster in the batter’s box. He punished baseballs with a hard-hit rate north of 44%. Fly balls leave the yard over a quarter of the time, and he chases out of the zone less than 25% while also missing under 15% of the time. That profile doesn’t work for everyone, but a player having the strength and slugging ability that this one does, it’s a perfect storm of relevancy.
 
On top of his own decisions this winter, Miguel may find accountability in the form of a clubhouse confidant for 2019. 38-year-old countryman Nelson Cruz joins the Twins fold for the year ahead. He was never a top prospect and didn’t truly debut until he was 28 years old. With more than enough wisdom to his credit, imparting learned principles on Sano could be a valuable development that holds weight well beyond whatever time they spend competing together.
 
As a new manager, Rocco Baldelli’s greatest accomplishment in the year ahead is going to be how well he can connect with and what he can generate out of his expected stars. Right now, it seems like the one playing the infield is catching up to the one in the outfield as far as desire is concerned, and that’s more than half of the battle.
 
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If you don’t already know the Minnesota twins inked the former Ranger southpaw, and well seasoned veteran Martin Perez to a short 1 year compact, to what seems to be a lackluster effort to “fortify the rotation.”
 
Now we can interpret this transaction whatever way we deem to be fit, but the Twins projected rotation lines up as….
 


 
Middling at best.With the likes of two potentially elite pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel standing pat for a desirable bidder, this has caught the chagrin of Twins rage twitter, and you can’t blame them. Imagine inserting Kimbrel or Keuchel into the pitching staff, and the added perks would benefit all parties involved including the most important; rectifying the vast abyss of Twins rants on the interwebs.
 
It isn’t any secret that the Twins have loads of room to supplement the roster to make a bid for the division. With the Indians unloading after 3 years of reigning as division champions, and the Royals, Tigers, and White Sox currently having no plans other the than tanking, the crease is there for the Twins to make a run for the Indian’s money and to snap a near decade for a division title deprived fanbase. Even to that tangent, what even is more baffling is that the Twins have an unprecedented allotment of salary (I felt so deeply compelled to say cap room) on the checkbook or whatever ledger the stingy twins utilize to organize their expenses. As Minnesotan Fans, we are so inherently adept to mediocrity and heartbreak, it’s as if misery is in our compatible middle name. But in this instance, there’s only room to spectate and to be optimistic, which is undoubtedly a tough pill to swallow.
 
The Ugly on Perez
 
The ugly is so glaringly obvious. The kid pitched to the horrendous tune of a 6.22 ERA last season and owns a below average 4.63 ERA. He’s got a poor career 4.44 FIP, and doesn’t strike people out. Watching some footage of his former* (as in last season he was converted into a reliever because he was so awful) starts, the guy doesn’t have an appealing secondary pitch, his control is rather iffy, and his changeup has fallen off a cliff since its former dominance prior to his injury. Speaking of injury, the guy spent 3 stints on the disabled in only the past year, has operated on for Tommy John, and is as far as away from durable as Minnesota is from Texas.
 
The Bad
 
The thing Perez isn’t terrible because he’s bad. As contradictory as it sounds, he isn’t necessarily by any means as pitiful as he appears. Looking at the tape, its as if his performance rides a rollercoaster. During the first inning, the guy is as rocky ever. He gets in many hitters count, can’t find the zone, and gets rocked once he does in 3-0, 2-0, 3-1, or 3-2 counts. But strangely he settles down and is frankly razor sharp with precision in the middle innings. That sinker-changeup combo is to die for on the edge of the plate, and reminds me a lot of….JA Happ. I think toggling with his sinker/four-seamer to changeup ratio, and maybe a change of scenery would do him wonders. Not to mention, GLP in Arlington is no easy place to pitch, because the ball CARRIES out there.
 

 
The Good, and How to enhance it???
 
Believe or not, Perez once was pegged inside the Top 100 prospects in the Baseball America’s 2010 edition. Don’t think because of this though, that I expect him to fulfill his top billing as a prospect. The guy has upside which at this point is hard to believe. But as I watched the tape, he isn’t the doormat pitcher as his number would indicate. He’s a solid and competent enough pitcher in the middle innings and is maybe or not a little shaky-nervous at game tilt. Beyond that, he’s got excellent above-average velocity from a left-handed starter. His relative youth and exuberance leaves room for hope of improvement, and he’s 28. He also is a ground ball demon and induces a well above average GB rate, and at worst is a decent innings eater. We’ve seen this regime sign the flyer free agent, as referencing last year’s Anibal Sanchez reclamation project. After looking at Sanchez’s pitch usage, there’s nothing at first glance that collasally has changed. But taking a deeper dive, we can see that Anibal has surged up in his career ranks in Chase%, Pitches out of the Zone%, and overall Strikeouts%.
 


But his pitch movements, usages, and varying peripherals haven’t drastically changed.
 




What can be attributed to this surge is pitch sequencing. Sanchez better utilized his changeup in complement because he threw the pitch out of the zone. He Split-Finger had a career-high strikeout rate in volume, and had the most minuscule SLG percentage in terms of volume pitched. He cutback the vertical movement of his 12-6 curve, and upped the ante of his split-finger that fit perfectly to a series of pitches (sinker, cutter, split) that better suited his repertoire, featuring horizontal movement. Which is a primary reason why Anibal had a renaissance season.
 
I mention this because..
Anibal was once a former project
Perez bears a striking resemblance to Sanchez, in their deficiencies.

All of this surmounts to absolute and utter baloney if Perez resists in reinventing himself as a pitcher. This, however, does include an unorthodox approach, and completing throwing the entire baseball manual out the window, and tinkering with breaking balls. Look at the Rich Hill’s and the Drew Pomeranz of the world, and we’ve even seen Tyler Duffey rely on an off-speed pitch more than his fastball firsthand. Albeit none of this pitchers are All-Star commodities, they all in some capacity became better to some extent by heavily depending on their secondary stuff. There’s no denying Martin Perez is a fully capable and average enough MLB arm, but the real question remains; Will Martin Perez be open to tinker his arsenal, and if not were the Twins better suited to have unleashed a prospect in his place? That remains to be seen.
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZOeXGX0sfY"]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZOeXGX0sfY[/
 
My virtual fake money is betting on that Wes Johnson and company already have recognized this, and have a plan waiting to be set in motion. My suggestions are pretty rudimentary, but they follow along on a general theme. Adjust and configure Perez’s pitches to align with his strengths. Just a rogue modification of mine for the sake of hypothetical satisfaction; steer towards an arsenal of the basis of vertical movement, (by tinkering with the cutter), reduce the amount of curves, increase the ratio of sliders:curves, and intensify the changeup as a wipeout pitch (which comes in further developing the arm side run, Ala Dallas Keuchel). This isn’t a foolproof formula for immediate results, but over a long term sample size, it's more than likely that Perez’s results would be slightly better than before. There are models of success that radically changed many players careers (i.e JA Happ etc.) that follow the same general blueprint; gear towards a players strength, and wait to experience slight success (snazzy rhyming jingle huh?
 
And if this completely backfires, convert Perez into the bullpen, transition him into a killer LOOGY (he’s seriously a death on lefty guy, look at his numbers) and deal him during the trade deadline for some fringe B- to C prospect and look to take another bite at the apple next year.

The Minnesota Twins decided to forego an opportunity to upgrade their starting rotation this offseason. Michael Pineda returns from injury, and Kyle Gibson has rounded out into an above average hurler. The greatest development from the holdovers would be Jose Berrios taking another step forwards. An All Star in 2018, the Puerto Rican was recently tabbed as a dark horse for the AL Cy Young.
 
MLB.com’s Matt Kelly named the young Twins starter as one of six sleeper candidates for the 2019 AL Cy Young award last week. Coming off a season in which he posted a 3.84 ERA along with a 1.144 WHIP and just a 3.90 FIP, that seems like somewhat of a substantial leap. Turning 25 in the middle of this season though, there’s plenty of reason to believe that Berrios’ best days are still ahead of him. If indeed that is the case, the secondary numbers suggest trends flowing in the right direction as well.
 
At his worst, Berrios gave up far too many homers and often did so with men on base. Having honed in command year-over-year, he’s also drastically improved his ability to keep the ball in the park. In 2018 the 9.5 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 were both career bests, and while the 1.2 HR/9 was a step backwards from the 0.9 HR/9 tally in 2017, it was a far cry from the ugly 1.9 HR/9 in his debut season. The ratios are all getting to a pretty solid place, but the percentages are what truly will help him to turn the corner.
 
Utilizing a devastating curveball, Berrios generated a career best 11.2% swinging strike rate, reaching double-digits for the first time in his career. He also produced a career best 32.8% chase rate and allowed contact just 76.2% of the time (you guessed it, another career best). To thwart walks, he pounded the zone with a 5% jump on first pitch strikes (64.5%) and he looks to be comfortable with a pitch mix that he replicated from 2017.
 
Something in between where Jose has been each of the past two seasons is likely the crossroads of optimal production. Hard hit rates were better in 2017, and he allowed just 9% of fly balls to leave the yard two years ago. Loud contact isn’t going to help a guy who will always battle against the plane of his fastball, but pitch tunneling, and sequencing can help to make the curveball an even more difficult offering to deal with.
 
Steamer projections look at 2019 as somewhat of a hiccup for the Twins blossoming ace. Marking him with a 4.26 ERA and just a 2.6 fWAR, he’d be taking a noticeable step backwards from the production that we saw in 2018. As a guy who routinely racked up strikeouts on the farm and turned in a 2.51 ERA with 10.1 K/9 and just 0.6 BB/9 in his final lengthy stay at Triple-A, there’s reason to believe the ability is there.
 
The blueprint going forward for Berrios remains similar to what it always has been. He’s a guy who works inside (as noted by his hit by pitch marks) and has struggled when giving up free passes or big innings. Although Minnesota has not done much in the form of additional high-level talent on the field this winter, the additions to the organization from a coach and development standpoint have been impressive. Wes Johnson is noted as a pitching savant, and both Jeremy Heffner and Josh Kalk will have a greater impact with another year of continuity. That foundation could prove to be what helps more than a handful of players take the next step.
 
I don’t know if I’m ready to get on board with Berrios winning a Cy Young just yet, but 2019 could certainly provide a strong foundation as the point looked backed upon that everything just clicked.
 
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As of this writing the Minnesota Twins have made just one move to solidify their bullpen for 2019. Snagging non-tendered reliever Blake Parker on a one-year deal, Rocco Baldelli’s relief corps hasn’t been overhauled by any means. Knowing the innings will need to be allocated across the group in the season ahead, there’s plenty of uncertainty when attempting to determine roles. From a traditional sense, that’s a fine determination. For those concerned with such things however, we’re left wondering who closes things out?
 
On January 14 the Parker deal was made official. It is a $3.2 million pact, but the oddity is that only $1.8 million is guaranteed. The former Angel receives a $1.4 million sum if he is on Minnesota’s active roster for 160 days. It’s a weird stipulation that needed to be agreed to for a guy who’s put up solid numbers over the past two years. Being non-tendered is one thing, but this almost makes it look like Parker didn’t have great prospects elsewhere either. Regardless, I believe he can help Minnesota’s pen.
 
Pitching for Los Angeles each of the past two years Parker earned 22 saves. Never tabbed the closer from the get-go, he’s filled in during times of need and done so admirably. A high strikeout and strong command pitcher, Parker has the makings of a guy able to succeed in the 9th or a setup role. From there, things get less certain.
 
If there’s a “proven closer” among the current bunch it’s Addison Reed. Signed to a two-year last winter, Reed was expected to be a difference maker for the Twins. He flopped and battled injury in Minnesota but has always shown so much more. He was far too hittable last season but remained relatively strong in terms of limiting walks. With 125 saves to his credit, operating as a closer is something he’s familiar with. In talking with Reed last spring, he told me he could care less about the save aside from grabbing some prior to arbitration. Should Minnesota be able to right the 30-year-old on a path that he had previously been on, they’ll have a strong late inning reliever no matter where he’s used.
 
From an internally developed standpoint Minnesota has only two options. Trevor May and Trevor Hildenberger look like the most logical fits. The former is a converted starter that seems to be able to amp it up in relief, why the latter is a crafty reliever who’s used deception and stuff to fuel a level of dominance out of the pen. I’d suggest May as profiling more towards your prototypical closer, but it’s clear that Hildenberger has found success in that arena as well.
 
The Twins watched a further breakout from Taylor Rogers in 2018, and while his numbers are spectacular, I think he continues to slot in best during optimal high leverage. Being called upon situationally late in games allows for him to dictate matchups and utilize his best stuff for getting opponents out. Fernando Romero looks like he could be headed to the pen this year, and the blazing fastball would certainly play up in relief. Over time I’d be far from shocked if he doesn’t force himself into high leverage. Initially, Minnesota may be cautious to keep him stretched out, and even if not, asking him to immediately work the most important innings could be a tough ask.
 
From here Baldelli won’t have much to turn to. J.T. Chargois is gone, John Curtiss was just DFA’d, Jake Reed has yet to be promoted, and Tyler Jay is still on the farm. If there’s someone outside of the previously mentioned big league names ready to reign in the closer role for this club, they aren’t currently on the roster. Cody Allen continues to be a name that makes so much sense, and I’ve heard rumblings that the interest is mutual. Until that deal comes to fruition however, it’s a wait and see sort of scenario.
 
Even with an Allen marriage in Minnesota, this collection is setting up like a group that will rotate the hot hand rather often. Allen has recorded at least 24 saves in each of his five seasons operating as the Indians closer, but the Twins could see something like five different players record marks in that category. From both a developmental exercise to a best fit scenario, the Twins relievers possess a wide spectrum of potential outcomes for the 2019 season. The best-case scenario looks to be a collection that succeeds by being quality over the sum of its parts. There probably isn’t going to be a runaway fireman called on at every opportunity but being able to adequately operate together gives this group promise.
 
Right now, today, it’s hard to envision the Twins front office feeling good about where the relief corps is at. The bulk of the work has been done, but another signing seems almost necessary. We’ll know more about who takes what role, when, as spring training gets underway. There’s going to be uncertainty for this group regardless, but I think it’s less damaging than immediately may be assumed.
 
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Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic is reporting that the Minnesota Twins are expected to reach a deal with Blake Parker in short order. The 33-year-old will turn 34 during the 2019 season and is looking to improve upon a 3.26 ERA posted during 2018. The former Angels reliver is Minnesota’s first pitching acquisition of the offseason, and for a bullpen needing some help, is hardly aiming to high. Given the internal options however, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine could certainly be rolling the dice on how some holdover names bounce back for 2019.
 
Relief pitching is one of the most unpredictable assets in baseball year over year. Unless you’ve got an arm among the elite upper echelon of the sport, expecting consistency on an annual basis is a crapshoot highlighting the desire for teams to acquire arms on one-year deals. For Parker, there’s reasons to believe he’ll be as effective out of the bullpen as the likes of Zach Britton, Cody Allen, or any other player cut from a similar cloth. He’s not going to require much of a commitment from the squad, and he’ll help to raise the water level over the Matt Magill and Tyler Duffey types.
 
It’s become apparent that Minnesota isn’t going to be a player on one of those elite talents at this point. Craig Kimbrel is really the only name left in that group, and even Adam Ottavino is a 33-year-old with a less than ideal track record. I wholeheartedly support the notion that Minnesota should be allocating funds to bring in another arm for the sake of talent, but the difference making presence certainly could come from within.
 
While not remembering if I’ve discussed it in this space, I’ve tweeted often about the prospects of Fernando Romero as a reliever. It’s more than fair to dream about him as a top of the rotation starter, but right now he may not be there. Utilized in short bursts out of the pen, his electric fastball could be paired with one other offering allowing him to be relied upon by Rocco Baldelli. Starting out in somewhat of a middle relief scenario and eventually transitioning to high leverage, expecting the ceiling to be anything but through the roof for Romero seems shortsighted.
 
There’s another guy that certainly could end up being the cream of the crop for the Twins in 2019 however, and he was worthy of a two-year pact just last offseason. Addison Reed is just 30 years old and signed a contract for $16.75 million over two years. He was coming off a two year stretch with a 2.40 ERA 9.8 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9. Not tabbed to be the closer with Fernando Rodney in the fold, Reed brought high leverage and back-end experience to the pen. We know how his 2018 went and calling it suboptimal would be putting it nicely. He gave up far too much contract, lost velocity, and was batted around the park. Can 2019 be different though?
 
Dealing with triceps tightness Reed hit the disabled list for the first time in his career last season. The move took place in early July and was a precursor for a season that simply wouldn’t get back on track. Owning an average 93 mph fastball in 2017 the juice had dipped to just 91.3 mph last season. After generating swinging strikes a career high 13.7% of the time in 2017, Reed got them just 10.7% of the time last season. Batters weren’t chasing, and the 78% contract rating was among the highest of his tenure in the big leagues.
 
Going into the upcoming year there may be no more important player to the Twins eventual success than Reed. There’s no denying that having some stability around Trevor Hildenberger and Taylor Rogers is a must. Romero represents a nice upside play, and Parker will certainly help to support the group. As a new manager with a pen in flex Baldelli needs the best version of Reed for what lies ahead. Another opportunity at a payday is also in store for the California native, and slotting back into the late innings would do wonders for his future value. It remains to be seen if Reed is both health and effective, but a perfect mix would’ve made him among the most coveted arms on the open market in this circuit as well.
 
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So now that the home town nine have apparently filled their glaring lineup holes, our thoughts (and hopefully Flavines') should be turning to the 2019 bullpen. Let's examine the team's options:
 
1. Stand pat and hope there are enough internal options to build a reasonably effective pen. This is not as far fetched as one might think, given the performance of Rogers in 2018, the re-emergence of May after two injury-plagued years, a healthy Addison Reed, and a well-rested Hildenberger who hopefully can snap back from a woeful second half performance last year. Add in some other potential dependable arms like Magill, Moya, and Vasquez and on paper this could be an improved pen in 2019. Throw Romero into a late inning role and the possibilities for a much improved bullpen are enhanced.
 
2. Go for the best proven closer on the FA market and call it a day. Any of the three top candidates - Kimbrel, Britton, or Robertson - would immediately step in as the closer. Although not risk free, each would represent a sizable upgrade over last season's opening day closer, Rodney, and give all Twins fans the confidence that the FO has taken a significant step forward towards contention. Looking at each of these three, Kimbrel seems to be out of reach given his six year contract demands. As good as he is, investing big sums in a reliever does not make a lot of sense for a team with as many question marks as this one still has. Robertson would represent the best investment assuming a maximum 3 year contract. Britton with his injury history would probably represent the highest risk, but has a huge upside. The Twins can afford to splurge here if they have to. The question is : will they?
 
3. The Twins can set their sights lower and go for one or two lower-priced FAs who while not proven closers would still likely be a significant upgrade. Ottavino, Allen, and Herrera are the cream of the crop in this second tier. Chad Allen is a risk after a poor 2018 stint, but this falloff would lower the price enough for the Twins to afford another of his caliber. Herrera and/or Ottavino would appear light years ahead of any current Twins bullpen denizen. Signing any two of this group would send a clear signal to ther team and fans that this organization is serious about contending in 2019 at a cost not much more than $20MM/year for two.
 
So which of these three categories would you select? The Twins have certainly strengthened their offense in the offseason. A rebound season by either Buxton or Sano would be another big step towards competing in the Central, at the very least. The rotation, while not spectacular, looks like it could be pretty solid if things break right. Only the bullpen is shaky and the pieces are there in free agency to fix this hole. Just a matter of FO resolve. If they just nibble at the edges here, it would be a sure indicator they are not serious about contention in 2019.

We’re quickly approaching the close of the 2018 calendar year. While there’s still multiple months before Spring Training commences in sunny Fort Myers, the Minnesota Twins talent acquisition has come in the form of two moves. Both players found themselves on the free agent market by way of non-tender decisions from their previous ballclubs. We saw a patient strategy in 2017 but employing it again could be to the team’s detriment.
 
Despite how the Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison signings worked out for Falvey and Co. last offseason, there’s no denying that both moves made a ton of sense. Morrison represented a power bat the lineup could certainly use, and Lynn allowed the starting rotation an ability to be bolstered by one of the premiere names on the market. Both players were inked to team-friendly dollars, and there’s no such thing as a bad one-year deal.
 
It appears that the Twins are content employing a similar level of patience this time around. The problem, however, is that the circumstances had them in a position ripe to jump the market. We’ve heard that a $100 million payroll could be the bar to clear, and much has been made about the uncertainty of both Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton’s development. The former is a number that should represent an embarrassing effort towards competitiveness, while the latter strikes this blogger as a backwards way of thinking.
 
Right now, we’ve yet to see Sano and Buxton put it all together over a consistent period. Minnesota obviously has reservations about whether it will happen for the two former top prospects but planning for anything other than full speed ahead comes with quite a few issues.
 
First, Sano and Buxton will never be cheaper than they are right now. Whether they explode or not, arbitration raises will continue to increase their rate of pay. Should things go according to plan, the dollars will mount considerably in the next few seasons. Waiting for the next wave of prospects would signify something like a ten year rebuild and comes with the same caveats as to whether the prospect status matures at the highest level. Pairing the current duo with external talent is also just a drop in the bucket in terms of dollars at this point, and nothing hamstrings an organization with zero dollars committed to 2020 and beyond.
 
You can certainly look at the free agent landscape as it stands today and wonder where those extra dollars would be spent. Craig Kimbrel isn’t the most appealing reliever at his ask, and Bryce Harper probably wants little to do with Minnesota. However, we’ve heard about plenty of relievers that the Twins were in on to this point and they simply didn’t want to extend a second year. These are the avenues that strike me as poor planning. Outpacing the competition by showing a willingness for an extra season, or a few extra millions, is something this team is in the perfect position to do. The Twins shed a ton of salary prior to 2019 and have literally nothing on the books for the season after. By being aggressive on some second-tier names, there’s no denying the impact could have been felt in the wins column. At this juncture, there’s a dwindling list of those types left, and the suitors remain a vast and competitive field.
 
As referenced from the get-go, there’s still time left to sort this all out. If Nelson Cruz, Cody Allen, and Zach Britton all end up in Twins Territory the panic button can be put away. When C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop are joined by the like of a Zach Duke or Matt Belisle type however, we’ll be vindicated in wondering what was taking place at 1 Twins Way.
 
Regardless of any team’s payroll flexibility, it’s always fair to view deals through a sensible market value meter. That said, there’s nothing wrong with being the aggressor in acquiring talent when you have resources on your side. For years the Twins have been in a situation that extra spending didn’t make sense because a level of competitiveness wasn’t going to be impacted by anything but a total overhaul. Now is not that time, and each additional acquisition can play a key part in a result greater than expected.
 
Waiting for something to fall into your lap has its purpose, but dictating your future often bears greater fruits.
 
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There was an effort to discuss this topic awhile ago, but I thought I would pick it up again now that the rumors and suggestions are increasing about what to do with the existing pitching staff, both starters and relievers.
 
I'm not someone who lives and breathes Baseball Reference, but I think a strong statistical analysis is the best route to take in considering both 1) what the front office is thinking; and 2) what the needs and holes are with the existing roster.
 
So let's assume that in a 162-game season, you will have 35-40 games a year that you will lose on the road without having to pitch a 9th inning, but you will have a dozen extra-inning games that will stretch the innings. Last year, we had 1443.1 innings pitched in the season; we know (from painful experience) that a handful of those will be pitched by position players (we had 3.2 last year), but given the numbers, let's ignore that for now. We need to fill 1,443 innings.
 
My math (also from the Twins page on Baseball Reference) shows that 907 of those innings (thereabouts, as I didn't try to winnow out how many innings that Gabriel Moya threw as a starter rather than reliever, or several others, but spitballed it with those types of players) were pitched by starters. That averages 5.2 innings per start, and whether you use the opener strategy or a "traditional" starting pitcher, (then calling the "starter" the primary pitcher rather than the opener) you are hoping to get something close to that out of your primary/starter.
 
That leaves room for optimism, as we can hope that the slate of starters picks it up a notch (whether that is 5 guys or 15 over the course of a season), but let's assume they don't, that we need 536 innings out of the non-starters. My quick South Dakota math tells me that is 3 1/3 innings per game.
 
I am also going to assume that we will roll with a 13-man pitching staff, unless the starters are on track to bump their innings to a level where the remaining innings can be handled by 7 guys (and that doesn't appear to be the case, but if we get to a point where starters are putting in over 1,000 innings combined, we might). How can we best divide innings for our 8-person staff so as to make that possible?
 
1) Simple but wrong - that is 67 innings per reliever per year (and no, I don't assume that the same 8 guys will man the posts all season, but perhaps like a second unit in basketball, the substitutes will take the innings/minutes not played by the first string). 8 guys getting 67 innings per year means that within a 26-week season, each relief pitcher would pitch roughly 3 innings per week.
 
2) More specialized - A look at the "typical" workload of a closer shows that they average pretty close to that number - 65-75 innings per year, maybe 30-40 of which are in closing situations. I don't expect the Twins to vary significantly from that role, even if they don't have that player on their roster right now (I think they do in Trevor May). But for purposes of this analysis, let's say we do have a closer (whether May or Allen from the Indians or someone else, that can be debated) and that person pitches 70 innings.
 
3) Who does what? That leaves us with 466 innings. I think we can pencil in Reed (for all of these guys, let's just say "assuming health" without really assuming that all of them will stay healthy for the year) Hildenberger, and Rogers for 70 innings each. That's not unreasonable, given their traditional workloads, again citing this page: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2018.shtml#all_team_pitching.
 
Now we're down to it. That is 280 innings pitched by the core four relievers, leaving 256 remaining innings for 4 pitchers. The names of those now-existing pitchers includes Romero, Stewart, Gonsalves, Moya, Littell, Slegers, Vasquez, Curtiss, DeJong, Duffy, and Magill (I'm assuming for our discussion that Mejia is our 5th starter, but you can change names if you want to).
 
While only 4 of them can be on the roster at once, many of the remaining names have options and can be shuffled between leagues as need arises.
 
4) Opener strategy - if the team is indeed - as has been hinted - considering an opener strategy, it seems that Stewart and Gonsalves might be the primary candidates for those roles (lining up with Mejia and Pineda, possibly Odorizzi). If we utilized them for the typical 30 starts that your #3 through 5 starters get, and hoping for 2+ innings - once through the order and averaging a little over a hit and walk per inning means that you face 9 batters while getting roughly 6 2/3 outs or 2 1/6 innings per open). 2.16 times 30 equals 65 innings, so 130 innings with two openers.
 
5) We have now defined several spots (which can be intermingled or altered depending on performance), but we allot 907 innings to Berrios, Gibson, Odorizzi, Pineda and Mejia; we allot 280 innings to May, Hildenberger, Reed and Rogers; we allot 130 innings to Stewart and Gonsalves.
 
That leaves - ta-daa! - 126 innings to be covered by two remaining pitchers with Romero and Vasquez and Moya as your primary candidates, the third of them stashed at AAA and the remaining names, plus potentials in Tyler Jay, Jake Reed, et al lined up behind. That strikes me as do-able, especially if Romero emerges as the long man to back up short starts from Berrios, Gibson or Odorizzi, and Vasquez/Moya as the short-stint lefty.
 
6) Now who do you want? Once whittled down to innings and performers for those innings, any discussion of a reliever or starter should also include the ramifications of what happens to the pecking order and opportunities for the above players. If we added a 5th starter, for instance, a Wade Miley (no offense, but please don't) and he took up his share of those 900 innings, either Mejia is bumped back into the core of 4 relievers, or one of the opener positions or one of the two remaining slots. Who should be bumped? Knock out Gonsalves for Mejia and leave the rest the same? Knock out Stewart? Move Mejia into Hildenberger's innings, Hildenberger into Moya/Vasquez's innings? Do we consider not giving Romero an audition in the regular season?
 
While I think the strategy of strengthening the bullpen is a sound one, I get far more lost in the thinking process when I follow the logical chain and try to decide what this means for our chances of promoting from within or giving real opportunity to a slew of candidates.
 
Best guess - no more starters will be signed (other than minor league contracts with an invite in case someone intriguing slips through the wintertime cracks), 1 more dependable reliever, only one opener (either Stewart or Gonsalves) to pair with Mejia, the other to start at AAA, plus Hildenberger, Rogers, May and Reed. Remaining two slots are taken by Romero as more of a long man and either Moya or Vasquez as the 8th arm/lefty. I think you also have to cut bait with some of the remaining names and keep your roster alive with players who could be optioned as the season progresses, even if that player isn't the one causing the gaping void. The more you fill this roster with veterans and guaranteed contracts, the more you make that flexibility impossible and are forced into waiver/release positions on players. I'd rather be in a position to take on someone else's unfortunate waiver casualty than be forced into one of our own.
 
Happy holidays everyone!

After signing Jonathan Schoop and C.J. Cron to deals earlier this month, the Minnesota Twins have been largely quiet. Despite having been linked to a few big bats for the lineup, there’s been no new acquisitions for Rocco Baldelli to pencil into his Opening Day 25-man roster. Looking at where Derek Falvey and Thad Levine can upgrade this club, there’s no denying some relief pitching help is a must. A familiar face could be the key acquisition in that area.
 
Cody Allen is the 30-year-old former Cleveland Indians closer. During their peak, it was Allen that often trotted in behind the efforts of Andrew Miller. While Miller was considered the fireman that came on to escape big jams, it was Allen who was routinely asked to close the door. Since 2014 he’s accumulated 147 saves and has surpassed the 30 mark on three separate occasions. In each of those years he tossed at least 67 innings, and his 11.8 K/9 over that stretch is nothing short of impressive.
 
While we aren’t yet into the advanced stages of the offseason, Allen’s market really has yet to take shape. He may eventually see the money expected to come his way entering the 2018 regular season, but the reality is that the latest campaign was a step backwards. Allen posted a career worst 4.70 ERA along with a 4.56 FIP. The strikeout totals dipped to 10.7 per nine, and his 4.4 BB/9 was also a low water mark for his seven-year big league tenure.
 
In trying to deduce what could be next, you must look at Allen’s inputs under the hood. His fastball velocity average 94 mph last season, which was down 0.6 mph from 2017. Allen sat in the mid 96 range back in 2014 and has lost roughly 2 mph on the pitch over the past four seasons. Primarily a two-pitch pitcher, using a fastball and curveball, he went back to being fastball reliant after briefly (and starkly) reversing that trend during 2017. The results yielded more hard contact, less swinging strikes, and an ever-climbing HR/9 tally.
 
This is where the Twins can find opportunity. At 30 years-old, it’d be somewhat shocking if Allen was running out of steam. There’re just over 400 innings on his arm at the big-league level, and he tallied under 100 total innings during two minor league seasons. Allen was drafted and groomed through the Indians system, meaning Falvey should have a rather intimate understanding of his health and ability. Bargaining against his recent performance, future results could be captures at somewhat of a discount.
 
Baldelli likely needs at least two relief arms brought in to shore up the back end of his pitching staff. Minnesota, as you’ve heard, has plenty of cash flow ready for allocation. It’s fair to assume that Allen could be had for a contract like that of Addison Reed a season ago, which then would leave roughly that same amount for another arm to be brought. The Twins acquiring two relievers at something like $8 million a year should lead to a considerable talent influx out of the bullpen.
 
There’s no denying that we may have become enamored with saves years ago, but they don’t tell the story of a pitcher’s true efficiency at this point. Allen however is more than a late inning statistic when he’s right, and if Minnesota determines that 2018 was a fluke, the opportunity to allow him an ability to thrive in a familiar division is more than appealing.
 
We have yet to see the direction Minnesota’s front office is going to take on the mound, but this would be one that should be easy to get behind.
 
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I will start this by admitting I have changed my tune on this topic a little bit. At the start of the offseason I really wanted the Twins to sign 2 arms for the bullpen. My top 2 choices were Joe Kelly and Joakim Soria. I thought Kelly looked about as dominant as could be in playoffs last year. So yesterday when Kelly signed with the Dodgers for 3/25 at first I was extremely disappointed. To me that didn't seem like outrageous money. Than I started reading more and the reviews weren't that positive of the deal. Plus Kelly is a SoCal boy and wee would have had to over pay the Dodgers by a good amount to get him. Once I got over my initial disappointment I looked at remaining options, both free agents and internal. The way the top off the bullpen sets up now is Trevor May, Taylor Rogers, Addison Reed and Trevor Hildenberger as the top 4. May showed dynamic stuff pitching at the end of last year and is now 2 years removed from Tommy John surgery. I believe he is primed for a big year. Rogers was about as good as can be last year and am hopeful he can replicate it this year. Reed hopefully was injured for large part of the season and is now healthy. If he can back to his career averages before last year it would be a huge upgrade. Hildenberger struggled for really the first time in his career after the all star break. He needs to get back to where he was. This leaves 3 to 4 spots in the bullpen. The Star Tribune wrote an interesting article about moving Fernando Romero to the bullpen. If Romero really can't develop a 3rd pitch, his fastball slider combo would be devastating as either a closer or a setup man. If you pencil Romero in the pen you now are down to 2 or 3 spots.
 
If you look at internal options for these spots there you have Gabriel Moya, Tyler Duffy and Chase Dejong who pitched with the team last year. You have the Rochester guys including John Curtis and Jake Reed. Lastly you have the starters who lose the battle for the 5th position among Kohl Stewart, Adalberto Mejia and Zach Littrell.
 
Moya seemed to figure things out at the major league level as the season went along. Duffy and DeJong both had their moments. I really believe it is time for the Twins to find out what they have in Curtiss and Reed. They both have accomplished all they can at Rochester. They need a shot to see if their numbers can translate to Minneapolis. The starters who miss out on 5th spot are a really interesting area. Stewart actually had more success than I thought he would as a starter at the end of last season. For several years I have wondered how his stuff would play if he only had to pitch an inning or 2 at a time out of the pen. If he gets the usual 2 to 3 mile velocity bump he is now looking at a FB that could consistently reach 97 as well as his 1 seamer that can sink and a potential wipe out slider. That is a repertoire that could be dynamic out of the pen. Mejia is another option who could be outstanding out of the pen in smaller outings.
 
So you have the 4 guys at the top who are pretty much written in ink. To fill the other 3 to 4 spots you have 8 options. All 8 of these options have major league experience. Some such as Romero and Stewart could have tremendous upside.
 
Derek Falvey has already stated that he wants to look at internal options. He didn't specifically mention the bullpen for this strategy but I really hope they do. I want to see what some of these guys can do before we lose them.

We’re amid the Winter Meetings, and the Minnesota Twins are putting together their active roster for the 2019 Major League Baseball season. Having turned the page on a less than stellar year, an overhaul of the coaching staff puts Rocco Baldelli as the new man in charge. Although the Twins have yet to break through at the top of the AL Central to this point, the hope is that they’re not far off. If that’s going to be a sustainable reality the farm system will need to bear fruit.
 
Last touched mid-way through 2018, my top 15 Twins prospects is due for some updating. If you’d like to see where things stood then, look here. Below you can also find the Top 15 Prospect lists dating back to 2016. Entering the 2019 season, here’s how the list shakes out:
 
2016 Top 15 Prospects
2017 Top 15 Prospects
2018 Top 15 Prospects
 
15. Jorge Alcala RHP
 
Minnesota acquired Alcala when dealing Ryan Pressly to the Houston Astros in the middle of the 2018 season. He got in 20 innings with Double-A Chattanooga last season and it didn’t go great. The strikeout numbers were there, which isn’t a surprise for a guy who can threaten triple digits, but command became a larger issue. He’s still working as a starter, but the transition to relief could happen as soon as 2019. He’ll be 23 this season and could be an asset in late inning relief work for the Twins. As a guy who was acquired in exchange for Pressly, dominant relief work would be the situation coming full circle.
 
14. Luke Raley OF/1B
 
It was Logan Forsythe that was acquired to replace Brian Dozier when Minnesota struck a deal with the Dodgers. Raley was the prospect that looked the most intriguing in the package though. He’s getting old for his level now at 24, but he should start at Triple-A in 2019. Brent Rooker is the prospect that gets the power fanfare, but Raley is looking like he should be in that conversation as well. There’s plenty of swing and miss here and refining the approach at the dish is a must, but he could profile as a fourth outfielder or nice bench bat going forward.
 
13. Gilberto Celestino OF
 
The other part of the Pressly deal, Celestino is just going to be 20 in 2019. He played in rookie ball for Minnesota last year, but a progression to Cedar Rapids for the year ahead makes sense. Celestino held his own in the New York Pen league while in the Astros system, and driving an OPS back up around .800 would be a very nice development. He’s raw and yet to fill out, but this is a prospect worth monitoring.
 
12. Jhoan Duran RHP
 
Picked from the Diamondbacks system when the Twins sent Eduardo Escobar to Arizona, Duran has plenty of exciting peripherals. He put up a highlight reel after joining Cedar Rapids, and his strikeout numbers only continued to rise. He’ll likely move up to Double-A at the beginning of 2019 and getting a guy that may have had his minor league breakout last year is an exciting add.
 
11. Blayne Enlow RHP
 
It was Enlow that was the beneficiary of some shrewd draft strategy by Minnesota in 2017. Despite going in the 3rd round, he was a targeted draft pick and with good reason. He played all of 2018 at Single-A Cedar Rapids despite being just 19, and the numbers were plenty respectable. He did miss some time, but that’s not abnormal for a kid in his first full pro season. He needs to continue developing and the hope would be the strikeout stuff continues to play. Enlow has a shot to be a mid-level or better piece of the rotation.
 
10. Lewis Thorpe LHP
 
Having returned to the mound in 2017, Thorpe turned in his first full season since 2014. With the injuries and illness behind him, he threw over 100 innings for the first time in his career. Although he’s a lefty, Thorpe isn’t just a soft-tossing contact pitcher. With strong command of his arsenal, he posted nearly 11 strikeouts per nine at both Double and Triple-A last season. Expecting him to be a depth option for the big-league club in 2019 is more than realistic.
 
9. Wander Javier SS
 
Without a missed season, Javier is probably even higher on this list. Signed out of the Dominican Republic, Javier has been one of the must-see type prospects in the system for a while. He underwent Tommy John surgery and missed all of 2018, but he will be healthy when 2019 kicks off. Javier showed well in his Appy League debut during 2017, and as he fills out, should only become more exciting.
 
8. Akil Baddoo OF
 
I’ve raved about Baddoo at different times in this space. His body has matured greatly, and he did a great job as a regular for the Kernels in 2018. Although his average wasn’t where it sat during rookie ball, the .770 OPS continues to be reflective of a guy with great plate discipline. He takes a ton of walks and started to show power with the muscle he’s put on. Baddoo is quick enough to stay in centerfield but could profile as a bopper on the corners as well. This is an exciting mix of tools to monitor.
 
7. LaMonte Wade OF
 
Although lacking some of the power Baddoo may possess, Wade is another guy that can play all three outfield positions and does a great job getting on base. He owns a career .391 OBP in the minors and forces pitchers to work in order to get him out. He probably won’t start 2019 in Minnesota, but he could claim a spot as soon as needed. This is a non-switch-hitting Robbie Grossman with a much better glove.
 
6. Nick Gordon SS/2B
 
We could’ve been writing a different story here had Gordon’s 2018 continued like it did at Double-A Chattanooga. Through his first 42 games of 2018, the former 1st round pick has a .906 OPS and was on his way to Triple-A. Nothing went right in Rochester, and now both Johnathan Schoop and Ronald Torreyes have been brought into the mix. The goal would be for Gordon to still take over for the Twins up the middle, but that will come after a level of mastery in Rochester is shown.
 
5. Trevor Larnach OF
Picked by the Twins following a College World Series victory in June 2018, Larnach made it to Cedar Rapids in his professional debut season. Positing an .890 OPS split between two levels, Larnach’s bat has always been his calling card. He isn’t a centerfielder, but there’s no reason the glove won’t be good enough for the corners. As with all power guys, a strikeout tendency could be a worry, but Larnach’s 28/21 K/BB in his first 42 games is a great jumping off point.
 
4. Brent Rooker OF/DH
 
Slow starts can be doom and gloom for some, but Rooker turned it on after stumbling out of the gate. He finished with a .798 OPS at Double-A in 2018 and posted a .900 OPS for a matter of months. He swatted 22 homers and all the comments regarding how much power he possessed were absolutely for real. It sounds like there’s no belief he’ll have the footwork to play first base, so he’s a left fielder or DH at this point. That said, he was drafted as a quick mover and highlighted for his bat. Minnesota could call upon him in 2019 and I’d expect him to be more than ready.
 
3. Brusdar Graterol RHP
 
Following in the footsteps of Fernando Romero, Graterol is the next Twins fireballing prospect. There is some reason to believe he could end up in the bullpen, but if he harnesses his skills as a starter, he’s a top of the rotation guy. Making it to High-A Fort Myers as a 19-year-old is no small feat, and he had little problem laying waste to hitters quite senior to him. The fastball sits near triple digits, and he’s yet to experience much issue with walks. If there’s a Twins ace of the future, it could be Brusdar.
 
2. Alex Kirilloff OF
 
Known as a bat first prospect out of high school, it was unfortunate to see Kirilloff miss a year of development due to injury in 2017. You’d be hard pressed to believe action wasn’t seen in a year after the 2018 he had, however. Splitting 130 games equally between Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers, Kirilloff owned a ridiculous .970 OPS. He posted 20 homers and owned a .392 OBP. The Pittsburgh native has all the makeup you’d want, and the tools on the field take it to another level. He’ll enter 2019 as one of the best prospects in the game.
 
1. Royce Lewis SS
 
Maybe the only thing to slow the Royce Lewis hype train in 2018 was the season Kirilloff had. On his own however, the 2017 1st overall pick looks every bit as good as hoped. On top of being an incredible human being, he should enter 2019 as one of the top three or four prospects in all of baseball. His defensive ability has taken steps forward at shortstop, and his .803 OPS was more than impressive for being his first full year of pro ball. There’s no reason to expect a trip to Pensacola for Double-A won’t be in short order, and a future Twins superstar could emerge from there.
 
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Going into the offseason the Minnesota Twins had more free cash flow than any point in recent memory. Multiple free agents inked to one-year deals are gone, Joe Mauer’s mega contract ended (as well as his big-league career), and the front office is left with something like a $60 million gap between current dollars and the 2018 Opening Day mark. From this we should be able to deduce a windfall of dollars being spent right? Maybe not.
 
On Friday local columnist Patrick Reusse was a guest on the Mackey and Judd show at 1500 ESPN. The discussion turned to the Twins and he noted hearing that the hometown nine are aiming for a payroll below $100 million to start 2019. This would be a $25 million step backwards from 2018, and with the considerable gaps to fill, a barrel scraping blueprint in order to fill out the active roster. You can bet that Reusse is more plugged in than this lowly blogger, and he’s forgotten more baseball contacts than I’ve ever made. There are some reasons to pump the brakes, however.
 

 
First and foremost, C.J. Cron’s addition to the organization suggests a willingness to commit some uncertain dollars. Robbie Grossman was always headed towards a non-tender with a $4MM-plus price tag, and an inability to do much of anything outside of getting on base. That type of player is extremely replaceable, but the safe assumption would’ve been to do so at a lower valuation. Minnesota tendered Cron a deal at $4.8 million, and that’s plenty trusting for a guy coming off a career year and 30 home run production out of nowhere.
 
Looking at the current structure of the roster, there’s no denying that the Twins need at least one middle infielder, no less than two relievers, potentially a starting pitcher, and maybe another bat. By those assumptions, you’re looking at no less than four more additions to this squad. While acquisitions can come through the trade market (which would still carry obvious contract obligations), four players averaging $10 million pacts over any period seems like a tough ask. Staying below the $100 million threshold from a numerical standpoint would take a concerted effort.
Ok, so now that we’ve outline this reality being a difficult ask, it’s time to question why this would be a reasonable decision. As the Cleveland Indians continue to take steps backwards this offseason, it’s becoming more apparent that opportunity is beginning to present itself for the Twins in 2019 and beyond. While there’s reason to wait for a full explosion with Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff in 2020, prospects are unpredictable and getting the most from both Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano should remain the chief concern. No matter what waiting game is played, marrying upcoming talent with producers currently in the fold is an absolute must.
 
Should the front office decide to sit out of the market this winter, the largest counter argument would be an effort to lock down arbitration eligible talent to long term deals. Getting commitments out of Sano, Buxton, Jose Berrios, Eddie Rosario, and Max Kepler then all becomes a “must do” type of strategy. If you aren’t willing to spend money on the open market, but also aren’t paying for the control of your own internal talent, you’re visibly announcing a lack of care to improve or compete.
 
That’s really where we find ourselves should this scenario play out. For far too long, there’s been griping about the Twins payroll. Looking back over the recent landscape however, you’ve got plenty of losing seasons and even less controllable talent. Spending big dollars on one player here or there would have never advanced the envelope enough for Minnesota to make any real mark. We are no longer in that period. Top prospects have graduated, the division presents opportunity, and money is plentiful for the proper allocation. Should the Twins fail to be in the same tier of payroll when 2019 kicks off, the front office, organization, and all involved are deserving of the lashing they’ll take.
 
We haven’t yet reached a point of concern given the lack of market movement thus far. The hopes would be that the Winter Meetings would blast the stove to hot, and we wouldn’t see players grasping at last minute deals well into spring training. Should Derek Falvey and Thad Levine welcome the Cleveland Indians to Target Field on March 28th with a payroll less than $110 million though, forget the cold and just burn it all down.
 
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Hey Everyone,
 
I've seen a plethora of hate on Addison Reed mostly due to his salary hit in 2019 so, I'm going to take a crack at changing a couple people's minds as I don't think he's getting a fair shake of things and doesn't warrant this much disinterest from his own team's fan-base.
 
Okay before I get into things let's look at his 2019 contract details (according to spotrac.com)
2019 Salary: $8,500,000
2019 Bonuses: None
2019 Market Value: 4 yrs/$8,936,937
 
2018 was filled with discouragement for Reed and his fans. He posted a 4.50 ERA (highest since 2012, his 23 yr old season), 5.11 FIP (Career High), and a 1.429 WHIP (Career High). On top of that he was pestered by a triceps injury all year. Which is a reason to worry. Or is it?...
 
Hear me out, in the 3 years before this most recent season Reed went off for an average of a 2.73 ERA, 2.89 FIP, and 1.12 WHIP. The guy knows how to pitch and how to pitch well so I think we can all agree to take a step back and see that no one should be doubting Reed and his abilities on the mound. We're not talking about a 24 yr old former top prospect who had one good year (or part of one) and one or two bad years (wink wink). And no we're not talking about a 35 yr old former all star who's age has caught up with his arm (wink wink again). We're talking about a 29 yr old pitcher with a track record of success who had a down year. It really burns the fans that this down year was with the Twins and I understand that. This article isn't meant to defend Reed's 2018 performance. It's meant to turn everyone's pessimism into shades of optimism.
 
So what caused these bad performances and why should it give us hope for Addison Reed?
 
Through May of last year Reed had a 2.83 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP. The WHIP wasn't great it was around average but the ERA was spectacular and I clearly remember people feeling safe when the bullpen doors opened and #43 could be seen jogging out. Then what happened? He got hurt. We learned after a few forgettable appearances in June that Reed's tricep was acting up and he had been pitching through it. What did manager Paul Molitor do about it? He continued to pitch Reed in the 8th inning in front of the Fernando Rodney experience. Now, am I blaming Molitor for Reed's performance? Not in any way. It was Reed's responsibility to shut himself down which he eventually did and landed himself on the 10 day DL for a good stretch of the mid-summer. The reason I brought it up is Reed and the team knew something was off in his arm and they continued to use it. I'm no doctor but that's not a good plan for stabilizing arm strength and velocity and it's definitely not a good time to judge a pitchers value. We all know the rest. Reed made appearances here and there throughout the rest of the season with similar results to his June stat line....until September rolled around.
 
Optimism for #43
 
I feel like Twins fans don't realize that Reed had a relatively good September in his 6 appearances. He had been damned by the fan base already. In a small showing of 6 games Reed posted a 1.69 ERA along with a 1.13 WHIP. I feel like this was the sign of hope we need to and can count on. A guy with structural damage along the lines of Glen Perkins labrum tear would not have put up those kinds of numbers in 6 straight games. The velocity on Reed's fastball was down a notch in these outings which can concern some but after an arm endures games, rehab, more games, more rehab, and then even more games, it tends to wear down. My diagnosis is, what Reed needed the most was rest but is a naturally competitive guy and came in the clubhouse everyday telling Molitor and Garvin Alston that he was available knowing the end of the season was so near at the time. So they let him test his arm 6 times and he took those chances and ran with them in stride. Now, he's going to have almost 5 months to get that tricep the rest it needs and is going to be 100% when pitchers and catchers report. So someone please tell me why the Addison Reed of 2015,2016,2017, and 1/4 of 2018 does not have a high possibility of taking it's rightful place in the bullpen again? Arms flare up it's a fact of pitching in the MLB but we've seen with the advancement of modern training and rehabilitation that more often than not pitchers are able to find their old selves again. I think it's time we start rooting for Addison Reed and looking at great possibilities for 2019 instead of the anomaly of 2018.
 
Extra: Contract Status
 
Addison Reed is making $8,500,000 this year which is about 95% of his market value. It would be nice if he was making $4 mil but it would be nice if Joe Mauer had made $10 mil in his last 4 years as well. Point being, potential and the past pays. On the open market (which is where Reed was acquired from), pitchers also make a considerable amount more than position players as well. So before we deem it a "bad contract" let's decide if we're giving him an unfair advantage because (at the time of this post) he is the highest paid player on the payroll and the first reaction is to go "ugh! isn't that the guy who blew a few games in 2018?"
 
All in all, 2018 was a forgettable year for a team still filled with potential and it should be viewed that way for Reed as well.
 
 
Feel free to leave a comment below with your thoughts I would love to start a conversation with anyone.

Bear with me now - I am about to go off the baseball rails here. I read all the speculation, all the projections of player salaries and all the moaning from our team and fans and the rest of the teams and their fans so I am going to say something no one wants to hear. We do not need an Ace, we do not need a superstar! There it has been said. The follow up to that is - and I want us to win the series!
 
Okay, now for my reasons. Lets start with the easiest - the Ace. The Ace in the 1800s pitched much more than any current pitcher. Old Hoss Radbourne won more games - 59 than any pitcher starts in a season. He was the triple crown of pitching leader - 1.38 earned run average, 59 wins and 441 strikeouts. I know we are all about strikeouts now - look at that total. And he pitched 12 years! Okay that was an Ace that made a real difference.
 
Then we got to the 30 win era where this was the standard that really set out the ACE - Denny McClain in 1968 was the last to win 30. There were 21 thirty game win seasons with most in the early 1900s. And they still had arms on their bodies the next year. These thirteen pitchers were also Aces of course Denny took to Aces in the gambling dens and ruined his career.
 
Then came the twenty game winners - with Warren Spahn winning 20 - 13 different years during his career - despite losing years to serving in the war. His last 20 game year came in my high school graduation year - 1963. He and the other 20 game regulars were Aces. On this list of twenty game winners is Nolan Ryan - yes he also lost a lot, but he was the real leader into the strikeout era and he also was a complete game pitcher.
 
Then we went to five man rotations and now to openers (the shame) and the argument that wins don't matter. The above pitchers also completed games - Cy Young completed 749 games - yes he won and lost games. And he earned his wins just like the other Aces above.
 
Now, the Ace not only pitches one of five games, but only 6 - 7 innings in most outings. I see Kershaw get $35m a year and think - why? He cannot even move them forward in the off season and his speed is diminishing.
 
Sign two number twos and three number threes and we will be better off than signing a one, running out of money and ending up with most games being toss ups or worse. Of course you can also make that a different combinations of 2s,3s,and 4s, but don't break the bank on the ACE.
 
Then there is the Bryce Harper/Manny Machado madness. Who in the world is worth the kind of money they are talking about. Living in MN I have heard for years about how the Mauer contract impacted the team ability to sign other players (I know it was an excuse, a joke, not real), but 300 - 400m is not a joke. Look at Mike Trout - the greatest player of our current era. By himself he cannot lead them to a championship season. Nor has Machado or Harper shown that they can either.
 
Each player is up to bat 3 - 5 times a game - that is all and if no one is on base they cannot drive them in. If they swing for the fences and have a crap average like Harper or Sano or Morrison did last year you get 30 HRs - which if they are spread out give you 30 games of production and 132 of small or no production. In the field only the catcher and first baseman are involved in the majority of fielding plays, so even in the field there is limited production most of the time.
 
Since WAR is such a popular figure think about the numbers the best players puts up. No one is worth 80 or 90 WAR, the great ones are 10 and there are few is any each season.
This individual game is still a team game and if the team does not pitch, field, hit, the team does not win and wins are what we want. Look at the Angels other player - HOF to be - Pujols. Tell me his worth to the team, tell me how that contract impacts the team.
 
No - sign a lot of good players, good fielders, good on base average, good production people, steal some bases, be fast and be involved. It is the team with production 1 - 9, rotation 1 - 5, even slightly above average at all positions that wins. Not the team with the biggest star.

On Monday morning the legendary career of Minnesota Twins great Joe Mauer came to an end. While it's obvious that his exploits behind the dish were far superior to what he did at first base, the reality for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine is that they now have a hole in their infield. Heading into free agency the first base market is pretty ugly, but a familiar name could make a ton of sense.
 
Last winter Carlos Santana signed a three-year, $60 million pact with the Philadelphia Phillies. Now according to Ken Rosenthal, they are "shopping the hell" out of their newly acquired first basemen. Of course the optics of such a move don't look great for the Phillies, but there's much more to it than meets the eye. Everything boils down to the fact that Rhys Hoskins is a bonafide stud, but he cannot play in the outfield. Serving as the regular left fielder last season he was worth an abysmal -24 DRS. The best configuration for Gabe Kapler's squad has the young star back at first base.
 
For the Twins (and any other suitors) there's somewhat of a perfect storm brewing. Santana had a down year in 2018 (not terrible however), and his team is motivated to move him before the start of the 2019 season. With those two factors at play it'd be fair to assume that leverage may be on the side of the acquiring ballclub. At 33 next year, Santana is owed $20.3MM with a $20.8MM commitment in 2020. There's a $17.5MM team option for 2021 but the buyout is a measly $500k. For teams interested in corner infield help, Carlos Santana at two-years and $40 million doesn't sound like a bad ask. Trading prospects and taking on the deal though, you're probably looking at asking the Phillies to eat something in the range of $10 million.
 
Right now you'd like to believe that the Minnesota Twins have Miguel Sano inked at third base to open 2019. A position change across the diamond could be in the not-so-distant future, but keeping him in his current role as long as possible is the most optimal scenario. As he transitions across the diamond though, a sort of mentor could be a great addition to the process. Santana has dabbled at third base in both 2014 and last year. He knows the position well enough to understand Sano's process, and Carlos has been a league-average at worst first basemen since coming out from behind the plate.
 
Offensively there isn't a box that Santana doesn't check for the Twins. Sure he had a down 2018, but even that included a respectable .766 OPS. In his final two seasons with Cleveland (yes, not the Falvey connection) Santana owned an .842 OPS. He has a career .363 OBP and has routinely split walks and strikeouts at the dish. With three straight seasons of at least 23 homers the ability to lose the ball in the seats is also present. Of course the best ability is availability, and Santana has been incredibly reliable as a big leaguer. Dating back to 2011, he's played in no less than 143 games and has gotten in 152-plus in all but one of those seasons.
 
Despite playing Gold Glove caliber defense at first base dating back to his positional change, Mauer's greatest detraction on the right corner was the ability to hit for power. Santana brings that to the table, combining his efforts with Sano on the other side. Minnesota's lineup also needs an infusion of on-base ability as Joe (and likely Robbie Grossman) has been subtracted from the mix. On paper this is certainly a perfect fit.
 
According to 1500 ESPN's Darren Wolfson, Santana is "on their radar" and that's a great sign for Twins fans. While the Phillies are motivated to move him, this is a team considered front-runners for one (or both) of Manny Machado or Bryce Harper. They aren't going to take pennies on the dollar and Carlos' services will be coveted by more than a few clubs. If there's a deal to be made in Minnesota this offseason involving prospects however, this is the one I'd like to see get done.
 
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In 2018, the Minnesota Twins star centerfielder Byron Buxton has played just 28 games at the major league level. Among hitters with at least 90 plate appearances, he checks in third from the bottom (above just Trayce Thompson and Magneuris Sierra). With a potential to play a maximum of 162 games in 2018, Byron has gotten in just 61 across all levels of pro baseball. If there's anything to take away from a lost season, it's that the most important trait going forward has to be availability.
 
Injuries are always going to be a part of athletics, and at times, you're going to deal with relative flukes. From migraines to a foul ball breaking your foot, Buxton has tested that theory in earnest during 2018. What's unfortunate however is that this isn't the first instance in which the uber-talented outfielder has dealt with this type of setback. Byron has missed time in each of the past few seasons, and most of that time on the shelf seems at least somewhat preventable.
 
By playing the game with reckless abandon, Buxton has thrown himself into outfield walls more often than he'd probably like to admit. The catches and highlights from those moments play on loop for years, but it's worth wondering what the opportunity cost is. Slamming into the wall in order to make a single out while trading a few games of availability seems like quite the ask. It's a difficult line to decipher when you're questioning if 110% effort is truly the best plan for long term success.
 
From my vantage point, the most integral thing for the Twins to get Byron Buxton on track is a level of consistency. Allowing him to thrive at the major league level likely comes through a repetition of quality at bats and positive results. That blueprint requires him to be on the field, and in a position to compete on a daily basis. There's so much talent to be put on display, and he's significantly beyond the highest minor league level (as we've seen since his latest activation from the disabled list). Distancing him from the nicks and bumps that have taken Buxton off the field has to be the next step in this journey.
 
Not all of Buxton's injuries are related to his centerfield exploits. He's hurt his wrist on the basepaths and at the dish, obviously migraines are a bodily issue, and things like an errant foul ball are simply bad luck. No matter what the malady though, having the Twins training staff best position Byron for success is imperative to his future development. Maybe the answer is to add muscle mass, or maybe it's having a more distinct understanding of outfield dimensions. At any rate, a new design taken with a focus on consistent health seems of the utmost importance.
 
There's no reason to panic on the player at this point. Buxton is lightyears ahead of where his predecessor Aaron Hicks was at this point. Hicks is now the best centerfielder in baseball not named Mike Trout. Byron is also on par with the likes of Torii Hunter and Kirby Puckett at the same age. The talent and tools are all there for him to succeed, but he also needs to be physically capable of putting them on display in a more routine fashion.
 
Telling a player to take their foot off the gas pedal is never an optimal plan of action. I don't know that it's the right one to suggest for a guy that's coming off being the best defender in all of baseball either. If there was something I found myself hoping Torii could impart on Byron during spring action down in Fort Myers, it was how to play all out while still protecting yourself for the long run. The Twins Hall of Famer only missed significant time once in his ten full seasons with the club. It's worth speculating that Buxton could end up being better than Spiderman if he can consistently stay on the field.
 
Lost seasons from some of Minnesota's most important young players was always going to spell doom for the 2018 campaign. Going forward, the amount of time that Byron Buxton can limit away from the field of play only benefits the overall success of the organization. There's still a star in the making here, and worrying about the on field exploits does nothing for me. Keeping the young man healthy and in the action remains the biggest piece of the puzzle.
 
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The Minnesota Twins went the route of signing multiple veterans on one year deals to supplement their relief corps for 2018. Now that the season has taken a different turn, all of those players have been shipped out to greener pastures. For 2019 and beyond, a goal of the organization has to be finding the next Trevor Hildenberger or Ryan Pressly. As things stand currently, there's a duo of dandies that have begun to stand above the rest.
 
Whether or not the Twins have a proven closer going into 2019 isn't of much worry to me. More importantly, does the club have a handful of guys capable of pitching in high leverage situations. Despite his stumbles at times down the stretch, Trevor Hildenberger has rounded out into exactly that type of player. Addison Reed will return for year two, and the hope is that he'd rebound to look more like his former self. The Twins should be feeling that they can turn to the likes of Trevor May and Taylor Rogers in those situations as well.
 
Rogers was an 11th round pick back in the 2012 Major League Baseball draft. He's now 27 years old and in his third major league season. Despite posting a 3.44 ERA (which is higher than the 3.07 mark from 2017), his secondary numbers are outstanding. The 2.41 FIP is a career low and comes in 15th among all qualified big league relievers. His 10.3 K/9 is a full strikeout higher than his career average, and his 2.2 BB/9 is a new career best as well.
 
As a lefty Rogers has proved serviceable against hitters from both sides of the plate. Left-handed hitters have zero chance, owning just a .422 OPS, but the .781 OPS to righties isn't awful either. He's giving up both the fewest hits and homers of his career, and it's hard to be anything less than excited about his outlook.
 
Owning just 93.8 mph average velocity on his fastball, it's not that Rogers is much of a flamethrower. With his long and lanky stature, he has a good bit of deception working in his favor. The arm slot hides the ball well, and he can get in on hitters in a hurry. I'd prefer not to see Minnesota tab Rogers solely for a 9th inning role, but he's far more than a standard LOOGY as well. Deploying him in a role similar to Ryan Pressly, just a fireman to get guys out, should yield plenty positive results.
 
From the other side of the glove, the recently rehabbed Trevor May has been fantastic. It's just been 9.2 IP over the course of 9 appearances, but May is laying waste to opposing hitters. An 11.2 K/9 is enticing, but the 1.9 BB/9 is a new career best that really jumps off the page. Working solely as a reliever in 2016 prior to Tommy John surgery, May's profile had a lot to like. The strikeouts were there, and the FIP suggested the 5.27 ERA wasn't entirely his fault. That said, he was giving up too many walks (3.6 BB/9) and the 1.5 HR/9 was a problem.
 
There's reason to like May's profile as a starter, but it's hard to ignore what he can provide out of the bullpen. On the season, he's generating whiffs nearly 20% of the time, and hitters are chasing his pitches just under 40% of the time. He's shaved 10% off of his allowed contact rate (63%) and the nearly 95 mph fastball velocity matches up with where he was prior to surgery.
 
Acquired as a top prospect years ago, Minnesota likely had visions of May being an impact starter. If he's capable of providing this profile in a more lengthy role that's one thing, but if he's a back end option I'd prefer to see him stick in relief. May has the repertoire and output of a guy who can close out games in the 9th, or be an upper echelon setup man. Again, this is a very small sample size thus far in 2018, but continuing through September would only give steam to the hype train.
 
Heading into 2019, the Twins will need to solidify a rotation that has more questions than answers once again. The bullpen has been an area needing improvement in recent years though, and seeing some internal arms step up and take command is more than encouraging. It hurt to lose quality pieces this year, but credit those who have stepped up and made the most of new found opportunity.
 
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As much of a disaster as 2018 has been for the Minnesota Twins, it's hard to look back and call it anything but expected. The reality is that injuries, suspensions, and ineffectiveness destroyed any possibility of a return trip to the postseason. Going forward however, the future is bright (I wrote about that here). The same foundation that was going to be relied upon this season remains key for the years ahead. That begs the question of who is there, and who are we waiting on?
 
While Paul Molitor and the combination of both Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have earned some blame for their roster decisions this season, none of those three would be positioned to overcome the biggest elephant in the room. Experiencing lost seasons for both Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton was going to be a hill too steep to climb for this squad. It also represents that reality that each of those players remain integral to the future exploits of the organization as well. Although both of the top two names have sputtered, others have produced. Let's take a temperature check on where the core for the Twins youth is in relation to being able to provide a solid foundation for the future.
 
Eddie Rosario: Arrived
 
Somewhat of a knucklehead, maturity was arguably the greatest thing working against the Twins left fielder early on in his career. Posting just a .735 OPS and a 97 OPS+ (100 being average) through his first two MLB seasons, there was plenty of room for growth. Fast forward to today, and Minnesota has a legitimate All Star on their hands, as well as a top 20 player in MLB in terms of fWAR.
 
Since May 2017, Rosario owns a .296/.336/.518 slash line. He's still a free swinger going after pitches out of the zone nearly 40% of the time, but the 12.3% swinging strike rate is significantly lower than the roughly 15% average he was at in his first two years. After posting down numbers defensively in 2017, he's back to being a very good asset out there and the mental lapses appear to be few and far between.
 
Two years ago Rosario looked like a guy Minnesota would be questionable in offering a contract extension. At this point, they should make it a priority.
 
Byron Buxton: Still Waiting
 
There's no way to sugar coat it, 2018 has been an abomination for the Twins centerfielder. After winning a Gold Glove as well as the Defensive Player of the Year award in 2017, Byron has played in just 28 MLB games this season. He garnered MVP votes a year ago, and hasn't looked even close to the player that emerged down the stretch. Among batters with at least 90 plate appearances, Buxton's .383 OPS is second to last. Injuries and ineffectiveness is thew narrative here.
 
The flip side of this coin is that Buxton already has over 300 G at the big league level under his belt, and he;s yet to turn 25 years old. He's the best defender in the game when healthy, and that helps to soften the blow of an offensive impact that's yet to catch up. There's far too much talent here to stay down for long, but consistency and availability is a must. Getting him back at the end of the year, and playing games somewhere this offseason could be huge. Buxton has to be a cornerstone for the Twins going forward, and I'm still fine betting on that being the case.
 
Miguel Sano: Still Waiting
 
When analyzing Miguel Sano's output over the course of his career, there will never be a down time that doesn't coincide with narratives pointing towards weight. As he has ballooned at the waistline, he's been scrutinized for his play. While being out of shape never helps an athlete, I think the bigger narrative is the one Minnesota employed in sending the slugger to Fort Myers. This is a story of accountability, work ethic, and desire. Sano puts on weight when he chooses not to buy into those areas. He has flashed the ability to be Minnesota's best power hitter since Harmon Killebrew. Right now Miguel knows that, but it's up to him whether or not he wants to work hard enough to achieve that.
 
In his time back with the Twins since his hiatus on the farm, signs have been encouraging. Not only did he buy into a conditioning program enough to come back a more trim version of himself, but the plate appearances have been better as well. The hot corner doesn't look like a spot he's incapable of holding down, and the power potential there remains immense. Sano left a .203/.270/.405 line in the middle of June, and has compiled a .250/.368/.344 mark in his return. He was swinging through 16.1% of pitches, and has drastically dropped that amount to 11.4%.
 
We're still experiencing a small sample size here, but the returns remain good. This offseason, Sano is going to need to display continued buy in. This isn't a flash in the pan type of change, and it has the ability to be career altering. If he's able to close the book on who he was, and be this type of an athlete, then the sky remains the limit.
 
Max Kepler: Turning a Corner
 
Looked at as somewhat of a breakout candidate for 2018, this season has been filled with ups and downs for Kepler. He came out of the gates extremely hot in April, and then cooled significantly by June. Since July 1 though, the German native owns an .890 OPS and has launched six longballs amidst his 12 extra-base hits. On the year he's still hitting lefties better than righties, and his launch angle continues to be an area of promise.
 
Despite being outspoken regarding a desire to put the ball on the ground, it seems Kepler has bought into the reality that success is through the air. He very well could reach the 20 homer plateau for the first time in his career, and he's made significant strides in the plate discipline department. A deeper dive into batted ball numbers suggests that Kepler is getting fairly unlucky, and that should only help to fuel a late season burst.
 
Jose Berrios: Arrived, but Not Fully
 
Owning a 3.0 fWAR on the season, Berrios is currently ranked as the 15th best starter in baseball. The 3.51 ERA and 3.58 FIP are in line, and there's not a number he's put up that isn't a career best. What's truly impressive about that however, is we still aren't seeing the best of him. At just 24 years old, Berrios was invited to his first All Star game. His success has include four clunkers with 5 ER or more, and he's got another three starts in which he's allowed 4 ER. Expecting perfection each time out isn't realistic, but 36% of his starts lending themselves to significant improvement is a very fun thing to project forward.
 
Having kept home runs largely in check, Berrios has stifled one of his largest downfalls. Slight in stature, he's been able to get enough movement on his pitches to combat the throwing plane in which the ball travels from his hand. We've seen a lot of good starts from Berrios this season, and we've also been privy to opportunities for growth. Although he'll likely set career bests across the board this year, we're just scratching the surface. He's got the ability to round into a bonafide ace, and it's a development that Minnesota has craved for years.
 
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