Ted Schwerzler

Last season, the Minnesota Twins jettisoned Ricky Nolasco to the Los Angeles Angeles. The move was widely applauded as it purged Nolasco's contract from Minnesota and got him out of the rotation. What was overlooked however, was that former top prospect Alex Meyer was thrown in, and Hector Santiago was coming back to the Twins.
 
There's no kind way to put it, Nolasco was a disaster in Minnesota. Terry Ryan over-extended himself by spending on starting pitching that had almost no chance of paying off. In trading Nolasco to the Angels though, Minnesota simply took on a similar pitcher. Hector Santiago was awarded $8 million through arbitration, and the club is still paying the Angels $4 million of Nolasco's salary this season. Essentially they gave up Alex Meyer simply to get a team to take Nolasco off their hands.
 
Santiago came over to Minnesota in the midst of a hot streak, and there was some thought he could pitch right around the high water level he'd established. What ended up taking place however, was 11 starts to the tune of a 5.58 ERA and a 5.82 FIP. His strikeout numbers plummeted and he gave up 13 homers in those starts.
 
Although Santiago was an All Star in 2015, his recent career has always had reason for concern. In his All Star campaign, he gave up a league leading 29 homers, and then backed that up with 33 in 2016. He also surrendered a league leading (and career worst) 79 walks last season. For a guy that's never thrown over 182 innings, and owns a 4.84 FIP since 2014, he's got very few things going in his favor.
 
Since his 2011 debut with the White Sox, Santiago's velocity has fallen off as well. Topping out at a 93.8 mph fastball then, he's fallen to hovering right around 90 mph last season, and routinely sitting there is a stretch. His contact rate checked in at 81.8% last season, which was it's highest since 2014. If there's a level of consistency, it's found in Santiago's swing and miss stuff, which has routinely generated an 8% mark throughout his career.
 
The reality though, when looking at the sum of all parts, is that the Twins are going to be asking a lot from a guy they already have cemented into their rotation. There's real reason to believe that Santiago could be among the Twins worst pitchers this season. He serves up dingers at an alarming rate, his velocity has dipped, and his command has waned. He could be helped out by the boost that Jason Castro will serve over Kurt Suzuki, but he's going to need a significant jump.
 
If Santiago wasn't the Twins return for Nolasco, or frankly if he had a different name on the back of his jersey, you'd be able to make a real argument he'd struggle to make this club. Considering top prospect Jose Berrios has little to prove in the minors at this point, running him out there more consistently would provide more long term benefit.
 
As things stand. Paul Molitor and the Twins are going to be forced to choose between Trevor May, Berrios, Adalberto Mejia, Justin Haley, Ryan Vogelsong, and Nick Tepesch for one spot. There's absolutely some guys in that group that will be filtered out, but on numbers alone, there isn't a reason to suggest Santiago is better than the bulk of the group. Having to settle for him no matter what ties the hands of the Twins rotation a bit, and it was already not in a good place.
 
Maybe everything gets turned on its head, and Santiago's first full year in Minnesota allows him to acclimate and things go incredibly well. Looking at the numbers he's put up, and the way things have trended for him though, that's a pretty big ask. Hector Santiago is going to be in the Twins rotation, but he may just be another form of Ricky Nolasco.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Last season, the Minnesota Twins jettisoned Ricky Nolasco to the Los Angeles Angeles. The move was widely applauded as it purged Nolasco's contract from Minnesota and got him out of the rotation. What was overlooked however, was that former top prospect Alex Meyer was thrown in, and Hector Santiago was coming back to the Twins.
 
There's no kind way to put it, Nolasco was a disaster in Minnesota. Terry Ryan over-extended himself by spending on starting pitching that had almost no chance of paying off. In trading Nolasco to the Angels though, Minnesota simply took on a similar pitcher. Hector Santiago was awarded $8 million through arbitration, and the club is still paying the Angels $4 million of Nolasco's salary this season. Essentially they gave up Alex Meyer simply to get a team to take Nolasco off their hands.
 
Santiago came over to Minnesota in the midst of a hot streak, and there was some thought he could pitch right around the high water level he'd established. What ended up taking place however, was 11 starts to the tune of a 5.58 ERA and a 5.82 FIP. His strikeout numbers plummeted and he gave up 13 homers in those starts.
 
Although Santiago was an All Star in 2015, his recent career has always had reason for concern. In his All Star campaign, he gave up a league leading 29 homers, and then backed that up with 33 in 2016. He also surrendered a league leading (and career worst) 79 walks last season. For a guy that's never thrown over 182 innings, and owns a 4.84 FIP since 2014, he's got very few things going in his favor.
 
Since his 2011 debut with the White Sox, Santiago's velocity has fallen off as well. Topping out at a 93.8 mph fastball then, he's fallen to hovering right around 90 mph last season, and routinely sitting there is a stretch. His contact rate checked in at 81.8% last season, which was it's highest since 2014. If there's a level of consistency, it's found in Santiago's swing and miss stuff, which has routinely generated an 8% mark throughout his career.
 
The reality though, when looking at the sum of all parts, is that the Twins are going to be asking a lot from a guy they already have cemented into their rotation. There's real reason to believe that Santiago could be among the Twins worst pitchers this season. He serves up dingers at an alarming rate, his velocity has dipped, and his command has waned. He could be helped out by the boost that Jason Castro will serve over Kurt Suzuki, but he's going to need a significant jump.
 
If Santiago wasn't the Twins return for Nolasco, or frankly if he had a different name on the back of his jersey, you'd be able to make a real argument he'd struggle to make this club. Considering top prospect Jose Berrios has little to prove in the minors at this point, running him out there more consistently would provide more long term benefit.
 
As things stand. Paul Molitor and the Twins are going to be forced to choose between Trevor May, Berrios, Adalberto Mejia, Justin Haley, Ryan Vogelsong, and Nick Tepesch for one spot. There's absolutely some guys in that group that will be filtered out, but on numbers alone, there isn't a reason to suggest Santiago is better than the bulk of the group. Having to settle for him no matter what ties the hands of the Twins rotation a bit, and it was already not in a good place.
 
Maybe everything gets turned on its head, and Santiago's first full year in Minnesota allows him to acclimate and things go incredibly well. Looking at the numbers he's put up, and the way things have trended for him though, that's a pretty big ask. Hector Santiago is going to be in the Twins rotation, but he may just be another form of Ricky Nolasco.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

The Minnesota Twins are nearly certain they'll start Jorge Polanco at shortstop to open the 2017 season. He played over 400 innings there in 2016, and with Brian Dozier remaining within the organization, there isn't realistic room to shift Polanco to the other side of second base. The question is, can his bat elevate him high enough to overcome his defensive inefficiency?
 
Under Paul Molitor last season, Polanco started 45 games at shortstop. Prior to that, the last time he played shortstop was for a 19 game stint at Triple-A Rochester in 2015. Recently, Molitor was asked why a guy they relied upon so heavily, wasn't given a better opportunity to succeed. On Polanco not playing shortstop in the minors last season, the Twins skipper told Phil Miller of the Star Tribune, "I wish I had a better explanation, we didn't handle it the right way."
 
That's an answer that could be used all too often for some of Molitor's roster and lineup decisions a season ago, but it's one that needs to be phased out in the coming season. For a Twins club that should be looking at defense as the linchpin to growth, making sure guys are well positioned and prepared is a must. For Polanco though, it's worth wondering just how much can be done.
 
Prior to the 2016 season, Polanco showed up on both Baseball American and MLB.com's Top 100 prospect lists. He was primarily a second basemen, and has been widely regarded as a bat first guy. Across seven minor league seasons, the young Dominican owns a .757 OPS backed by a strong .286 average and .346 OBP. He's never going to hit for much power, but as a gap guy with speed, he'll stretch extra bases plenty. It's always seemed that second would be his home however, and that coexisting with Brian Dozier was unlikely.
 
A year ago, Polanco turned in 406 innings at short. He racked up a -8 DRS and committed 11 errors. It wasn't quite a Danny Santana level of futility (-15 DRS 16 E in 578.1 innings during 2015), but it was well down that path. Polanco's range was a serious detriment for the Twins (-10.9 UZR) as well, and it's probably fair to wonder if taking poor routes to compensate for a noted lack of arm strength wasn't part of the issue.
 
All things considered, expecting Polanco to win a Gold Glove playing shortstop is not a likely proposition. For Minnesota though, that really shouldn't be the goal. What they need to see happen is Polanco land somewhere in the average territory, and we can find a relative group of what that may look like.
 
In 2016, only five players (with 400+ innings) had worse DRS numbers at short than Polanco. Alexei Ramirez (-20), Brad Miller (-14), and Jordy Mercer (-9) all played for losing clubs. Both Xander Bogaerts (-10) and Didi Gregorious (-9) played on teams with winning records, and their bats spoke loudly for them. At the top of the shortstop DRS list resides the likes of Addison Russell (19) and Brandon Crawford (19). The middle ground is something in the -3 to 0 range.
 
Seven shortstops fall within -3 to 0 DRS having played over 400 innings. They include Carlos Correa, Chris Owings, Aledmys Diaz, Elvis Andrus, Ketel Marte, Orlando Arcia, and Corey Seager. Of that group, only Owings' Diamondbacks and Arcia's Brewers had losing seasons. There's also a decent contingent of solid hitters in that bunch, allowing them to contribute to their club's offensive production as well.
 
For Jorge Polanco, finding a way to get to the middle ground is a must. He can't continue to post the 6th worst DRS numbers in the big leagues, and he has to put up a better UZR than the 5th worst mark in baseball. By now we know that the position puts a strain on him with a lack of arm strength, and honestly, being miscast as a fit. Although he's not going to hit like Bogaerts, a Gregorious-esque (.276/.304/.447) slash line seems more than doable. With a few minor tweaks, rounding himself into a more complete player would help the Twins out substantially.
 
In 2017, the Twins are going to win more games simply because of minor tweaks. Jason Castro elevates the pitching staff, and a consistent outfield of Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, and Max Kepler provide a massive defensive boost. Polanco needs to raise the water mark by elevating his play just a little, even if he's still somewhat of a liability. The bat has never been the concern, and it's time to make the glove less of one.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Going into the 2017 Major League Baseball season, it stands to reason that the Minnesota Twins will more than likely employ a similar 25 man roster construction. That means there'd be places for 12 pitchers and 13 position players. Given in are in the starting lineup, the four vying to fill out the bench provide some questions for Paul Molitor and his club.
 
Two of those bench spots are immediately claimed by the backup catcher (see Mitch Garver, John Ryan Murphy, or Chris Gimenez) and a fourth outfielder (Robbie Grossman or Eddie Rosario). With just two openings left, the Twins need to incorporate a defensive focus, some sort of base running threat, and realistically cannot ignore offensive production completely. Utility men would be great fits for either of those spots, but unfortunately for Minnesota, they have three players in the mix.
 
Danny Santana probably comes to mind first. He burst onto the scene thanks in large part to a mirage of a rookie season. His BABIP created unrealistic watermarks, and his career has spiraled since. Although he's played the most positions of the possible options, he occupies no ground on the field while being a positive defensive asset. I took a deeper dive into what Santana brings to the table in this piece, but right now he has to be the odd man out. Although Minnesota obviously appreciates his flexibility, it stands to reason his level of asset is simply the lowest.
 
That brings us to Eduardo Escobar. From 2014-2015, Escobar played in 260 games for the Twins owning a .737 OPS at the dish. While his OBP (.312) left something to be desired, he showed a little pop with his 18 homers, and was of value offensively. In the field, Escobar spent the majority of his time at shortstop, and went from -6 DRS in 2014 to +2 DRS in 2015. He's never completely sold us on the part that he's an every day player, but as a utility man that profiles at short and can play two other infield spots, it looked to make sense.
 
Last season however, Escobar through a wrench into his future with what was a significant step backwards. His OPS plummeted to a paltry .618, and he totaled -7 DRS in 579 innings at short. No longer a defensive or offensive asset, Escobar had simply become a below replacement level player. On a new arbitration contract with the Twins this season though, it appears the club is banking on that being an outlier, and it's probably a decent bet.
 
Rounding out the trio is the recently acquired Ehire Adrianza. Coming over from the San Francisco Giants (and briefly, the Milwaukee Brewers), Adrianza is virtually all glove. Despite the small sample size, he's regarded in the Andrelton Simmons level of leather at shortstop, and that's something that the Twins simply don't have anywhere on their roster. Given the likelihood that Jorge Polanco struggles defensively, Adrianza would stand to look otherworldly in the field.
 
With the bat, Adrianza owns just a .605 career OPS and is coming off his best season in which he totaled a .679 OPS in 40 games with the Giants. He has just 17 extra base hits in 154 big league games, and gap power is something that will likely always elude him. Down at Triple-A though, Adrianza has compiled an .822 OPS in just over 100 games being virtually the same singles hitter. He has speed, although he doesn't typically steal a ton of bases, and that can probably play on both sides of the ball.
 
For Molitor and the Twins, the decision likely comes down to whether or not they can handle a glove only bench player. Escobar, despite his poor 2016, should be a lock, and that leaves it a competition between Santana and Adrianza. The former can stand at multiple positions but play none, while the latter plays infield spectacularly but can't hit a lick.
 
As noted above, with question marks already surrounding Polanco's ability to cope at short, Adrianza seems like an ideal fit. Minnesota was beaten badly around the ballyard a season ago in large part due to poor defense. Having such an asset ready and waiting off the bench seems to make a lot of sense. Expect this to be sorted out as Spring Training draws on down in Fort Myers.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Let me preface with the reality that fandom comes in different shapes and sizes. I realize there are those that are more casual observers, and there are diehards. There are those who watch the game, and then there are those that know the game. Simply defining someone watching Minnesota Twins baseball as a fan doesn't do the categorization justice. When it comes to the 2017 home nine though, there seems to be a growing and unfortunate confusion.
 
Arguably the most frustrating notion is that this team is destined to be bad because, well, they lost 103 games last season. That's absolutely a fact regarding the loss total, outside of that, the statement couldn't be less confusing. Given the Twins emerged from nowhere in 2015 and won 83 games finishing 2nd in the AL Central, how can that be immediately dismissed?
 
In 2016, Paul Molitor had virtually the same starting infield as he did the year prior (save for Eduardo Escobar replacing Danny Santana at shortstop). He had a new outfield that consisted of Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, and Eddie Rosario as opposed to the 2015 contingent of Oswaldo Arcia, Jordan Schafer, and Torii Hunter. Picking up the extra at bats as the designated hitter was Byungho Park instead of the replaced Kennys Vargas from 2015. As a whole, the Opening Day lineup remained a virtual clone.
 
On the mound, Tyler Duffey replaced Mike Pelfrey in the big league rotation. The bullpen was thrown together with relatively similar pieces, and Molitor had a couple of new coaches at his disposal. What held true though was that nothing was truly groundbreaking.
 
Here's the thing though, in 2015 the Twins overachieved significantly. Virtually all metrics suggested regression was coming, and the fact of the matter was there were too many placeholders to simply fill all of the holes. If 2015 gave you as a fan hope for 2016, you were likely as misguided as suggesting 2016 is a precursor for the season to come.
 
So Jose Berrios, Byron Buxton, and Miguel Sano are prospects you've heard about forever and haven't produced to the level you perceived? Is it incredibly surprising that a 22 year-old and two 23 year-old's are taking a bit longer to adjust at the big league level? Of course it isn't. Sano already has 40 career homers under his belt, Berrios has made a handful of starts, and Buxton is already playing Gold Glove caliber defense. At 23 years old, Kirby Puckett was at Single-A and Johan Santana was a reliever with a career 5.90 ERA.
 
Exposure has given us a heightened level of insight into young prospects. There's lists, articles, Twitter, and countless other sources of information for the game's next stars. You may hear about a player earlier, but that doesn't change the adjustment period, or the reality that knowledge beyond those sources is key to understanding how quickly a kid may take to a man's game.
 
Rounding out the trio of complaints is the one that encompasses both the overlooking of past results, and well as current roster construction. Why didn't Derek Falvey and Thad Levine come in and do more this offseason? The long and short of it is that they didn't have to. Both astute baseball minds, they realize this club is going to need to be carried by the likes of the Sano's and Buxton's. Signing a big bat, or a major arm, prior to the young guys being ready to shoulder more of the load, is a wasted year.
 
Going into the offseason, I suggested multiple times that standing pat would be a good place for the Twins. I was interested in Wilson Ramos pre-injury. Jason Castro emerged, and then made immediate sense. He helps to address pitching and defense, is a low cost signing, and can hit at least to the level Kurt Suzuki was capable of. Outside of that, a throw in reliever until some of the young arms made sense. Minnesota has really strong relief prospects, and blocking them with significant retread veterans never would have been a good idea.
 
Right now, the Twins executed everything as they needed to, and really, it's on you to see that. There's no one suggesting this club is making the playoffs, and even a .500 record would be a nice bonus. They aren't close to a 59 win team though, and the reasoning is relatively simple. The youth will continue to develop, and banking on those names you've heard forever to be stars is still a good bet. Finally, when it comes time to supplement with outside talent (and Minnesota is close to that point), then Falvey and Levine will be aware of the fact they are building, and not rebuilding.
 
Don't miss the boat, and don't throw out baseless frustration. Whether comment sections, casual discussion, Twitter, or some other place is your stomping ground, have a little foundation to stand upon when considering what is being brought to the table. Baseball is a sport that allows you to consume it in multiple different ways. Understanding that opinions are also a reflection of that is a must.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Let me preface with the reality that fandom comes in different shapes and sizes. I realize there are those that are more casual observers, and there are diehards. There are those who watch the game, and then there are those that know the game. Simply defining someone watching Minnesota Twins baseball as a fan doesn't do the categorization justice. When it comes to the 2017 home nine though, there seems to be a growing and unfortunate confusion.
 
Arguably the most frustrating notion is that this team is destined to be bad because, well, they lost 103 games last season. That's absolutely a fact regarding the loss total, outside of that, the statement couldn't be less confusing. Given the Twins emerged from nowhere in 2015 and won 83 games finishing 2nd in the AL Central, how can that be immediately dismissed?
 
In 2016, Paul Molitor had virtually the same starting infield as he did the year prior (save for Eduardo Escobar replacing Danny Santana at shortstop). He had a new outfield that consisted of Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, and Eddie Rosario as opposed to the 2015 contingent of Oswaldo Arcia, Jordan Schafer, and Torii Hunter. Picking up the extra at bats as the designated hitter was Byungho Park instead of the replaced Kennys Vargas from 2015. As a whole, the Opening Day lineup remained a virtual clone.
 
On the mound, Tyler Duffey replaced Mike Pelfrey in the big league rotation. The bullpen was thrown together with relatively similar pieces, and Molitor had a couple of new coaches at his disposal. What held true though was that nothing was truly groundbreaking.
 
Here's the thing though, in 2015 the Twins overachieved significantly. Virtually all metrics suggested regression was coming, and the fact of the matter was there were too many placeholders to simply fill all of the holes. If 2015 gave you as a fan hope for 2016, you were likely as misguided as suggesting 2016 is a precursor for the season to come.
 
So Jose Berrios, Byron Buxton, and Miguel Sano are prospects you've heard about forever and haven't produced to the level you perceived? Is it incredibly surprising that a 22 year-old and two 23 year-old's are taking a bit longer to adjust at the big league level? Of course it isn't. Sano already has 40 career homers under his belt, Berrios has made a handful of starts, and Buxton is already playing Gold Glove caliber defense. At 23 years old, Kirby Puckett was at Single-A and Johan Santana was a reliever with a career 5.90 ERA.
 
Exposure has given us a heightened level of insight into young prospects. There's lists, articles, Twitter, and countless other sources of information for the game's next stars. You may hear about a player earlier, but that doesn't change the adjustment period, or the reality that knowledge beyond those sources is key to understanding how quickly a kid may take to a man's game.
 
Rounding out the trio of complaints is the one that encompasses both the overlooking of past results, and well as current roster construction. Why didn't Derek Falvey and Thad Levine come in and do more this offseason? The long and short of it is that they didn't have to. Both astute baseball minds, they realize this club is going to need to be carried by the likes of the Sano's and Buxton's. Signing a big bat, or a major arm, prior to the young guys being ready to shoulder more of the load, is a wasted year.
 
Going into the offseason, I suggested multiple times that standing pat would be a good place for the Twins. I was interested in Wilson Ramos pre-injury. Jason Castro emerged, and then made immediate sense. He helps to address pitching and defense, is a low cost signing, and can hit at least to the level Kurt Suzuki was capable of. Outside of that, a throw in reliever until some of the young arms made sense. Minnesota has really strong relief prospects, and blocking them with significant retread veterans never would have been a good idea.
 
Right now, the Twins executed everything as they needed to, and really, it's on you to see that. There's no one suggesting this club is making the playoffs, and even a .500 record would be a nice bonus. They aren't close to a 59 win team though, and the reasoning is relatively simple. The youth will continue to develop, and banking on those names you've heard forever to be stars is still a good bet. Finally, when it comes time to supplement with outside talent (and Minnesota is close to that point), then Falvey and Levine will be aware of the fact they are building, and not rebuilding.
 
Don't miss the boat, and don't throw out baseless frustration. Whether comment sections, casual discussion, Twitter, or some other place is your stomping ground, have a little foundation to stand upon when considering what is being brought to the table. Baseball is a sport that allows you to consume it in multiple different ways. Understanding that opinions are also a reflection of that is a must.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Coming over for Ben Revere from the Philadelphia Phillies, Trevor May was the headliner of a trade made in the same offseason that the Minnesota Twins acquired former prospect Alex Meyer. May was projected to be a solid starter in the rotation, and was someone that should be counted on to contribute for quite some time. After splitting duties between starting and relieving, May seems the odds on favorite to round out Paul Molitor's starting rotation in 2017.
 
In 2016, May pitched exclusively as a reliever turning in 42.2 IP. He compiled a 5.27 ERA along with a 3.80 FIP. The production was backed by a strong 12.7 K/9 and a less than ideal 3.6 BB/9. As a reliever, May's velocity and strikeouts both predictably received a nice bump. What was the largest downside however, was a guy that was being asked to get ready much more quickly than he had ever experienced before. The unfortunate side effect was a nagging back issue that sidelined May for portions of the 2016 season.
 
If for no other reason than to get him healthy and productive, moving May out of the pen makes sense. Then there's the reality that there may actually be another reason. May could actually be a calming presence in the Twins rotation.
 
He made nine starts in his big league debut season in 2014, and followed that up with another 16 starts in 2015. While there was obviously a transition period out of the gate, May settled in somewhat during 2015. He tallied a 4.43 ERA that was backed by a better FIP and a 7.9 K/9. While not the dominating strikeout force starting as he is relieving, he still posts numbers that rank among the Twins best.
 
Ideally, the Twins would like to see May improve upon the .772 OPS he allowed opposing hitters while starting in 2015. That number can somewhat be explained by the 13 triples and home runs (5/8 respectively) that he surrendered in just 83.1 IP.
 
Working as a starter, May's fastball sits around 92 miles per hour, and his slider registers right around 10 mph slower. He is primarily a fastball thrower, but mixes in offspeed right around one-third of the time. If he can jump his swinging strike rate a bit higher than the 10% it sits at while he's starting, May could keep opposing batters off balance a bit more. Also, as a starter, he allowed contact right around 84% of the time. Turning a few more batted balls into soft or medium contact would go a long ways to help his cause as well.
 
Trying to project completely what May is as a starter for the Twins is a difficult task. He's bounced between roles too often, and really a total of 25 starts over the past three years is hardly being able to settle into anything. That being said, a clean bill of health, a bit more consistency, and a perceived level of stability add up to someone that should be a solid addition for Molitor's group.
 
I wouldn't expect Trevor May to push for a Cy Young any time soon, and he may not put up the flashiest numbers, but 2017 could well be his strongest season at the big league level.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Let me preface with the reality that fandom comes in different shapes and sizes. I realize there are those that are more casual observers, and there are diehards. There are those who watch the game, and then there are those that know the game. Simply defining someone watching Minnesota Twins baseball as a fan doesn't do the categorization justice. When it comes to the 2017 home nine though, there seems to be a growing and unfortunate confusion.
 
Arguably the most frustrating notion is that this team is destined to be bad because, well, they lost 103 games last season. That's absolutely a fact regarding the loss total, outside of that, the statement couldn't be less confusing. Given the Twins emerged from nowhere in 2015 and won 83 games finishing 2nd in the AL Central, how can that be immediately dismissed?
 
In 2016, Paul Molitor had virtually the same starting infield as he did the year prior (save for Eduardo Escobar replacing Danny Santana at shortstop). He had a new outfield that consisted of Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, and Eddie Rosario as opposed to the 2015 contingent of Oswaldo Arcia, Jordan Schafer, and Torii Hunter. Picking up the extra at bats as the designated hitter was Byungho Park instead of the replaced Kennys Vargas from 2015. As a whole, the Opening Day lineup remained a virtual clone.
 
On the mound, Tyler Duffey replaced Mike Pelfrey in the big league rotation. The bullpen was thrown together with relatively similar pieces, and Molitor had a couple of new coaches at his disposal. What held true though was that nothing was truly groundbreaking.
 
Here's the thing though, in 2015 the Twins overachieved significantly. Virtually all metrics suggested regression was coming, and the fact of the matter was there were too many placeholders to simply fill all of the holes. If 2015 gave you as a fan hope for 2016, you were likely as misguided as suggesting 2016 is a precursor for the season to come.
 
So Jose Berrios, Byron Buxton, and Miguel Sano are prospects you've heard about forever and haven't produced to the level you perceived? Is it incredibly surprising that a 22 year-old and two 23 year-old's are taking a bit longer to adjust at the big league level? Of course it isn't. Sano already has 40 career homers under his belt, Berrios has made a handful of starts, and Buxton is already playing Gold Glove caliber defense. At 23 years old, Kirby Puckett was at Single-A and Johan Santana was a reliever with a career 5.90 ERA.
 
Exposure has given us a heightened level of insight into young prospects. There's lists, articles, Twitter, and countless other sources of information for the game's next stars. You may hear about a player earlier, but that doesn't change the adjustment period, or the reality that knowledge beyond those sources is key to understanding how quickly a kid may take to a man's game.
 
Rounding out the trio of complaints is the one that encompasses both the overlooking of past results, and well as current roster construction. Why didn't Derek Falvey and Thad Levine come in and do more this offseason? The long and short of it is that they didn't have to. Both astute baseball minds, they realize this club is going to need to be carried by the likes of the Sano's and Buxton's. Signing a big bat, or a major arm, prior to the young guys being ready to shoulder more of the load, is a wasted year.
 
Going into the offseason, I suggested multiple times that standing pat would be a good place for the Twins. I was interested in Wilson Ramos pre-injury. Jason Castro emerged, and then made immediate sense. He helps to address pitching and defense, is a low cost signing, and can hit at least to the level Kurt Suzuki was capable of. Outside of that, a throw in reliever until some of the young arms made sense. Minnesota has really strong relief prospects, and blocking them with significant retread veterans never would have been a good idea.
 
Right now, the Twins executed everything as they needed to, and really, it's on you to see that. There's no one suggesting this club is making the playoffs, and even a .500 record would be a nice bonus. They aren't close to a 59 win team though, and the reasoning is relatively simple. The youth will continue to develop, and banking on those names you've heard forever to be stars is still a good bet. Finally, when it comes time to supplement with outside talent (and Minnesota is close to that point), then Falvey and Levine will be aware of the fact they are building, and not rebuilding.
 
Don't miss the boat, and don't throw out baseless frustration. Whether comment sections, casual discussion, Twitter, or some other place is your stomping ground, have a little foundation to stand upon when considering what is being brought to the table. Baseball is a sport that allows you to consume it in multiple different ways. Understanding that opinions are also a reflection of that is a must.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Let me preface with the reality that fandom comes in different shapes and sizes. I realize there are those that are more casual observers, and there are diehards. There are those who watch the game, and then there are those that know the game. Simply defining someone watching Minnesota Twins baseball as a fan doesn't do the categorization justice. When it comes to the 2017 home nine though, there seems to be a growing and unfortunate confusion.
 
Arguably the most frustrating notion is that this team is destined to be bad because, well, they lost 103 games last season. That's absolutely a fact regarding the loss total, outside of that, the statement couldn't be less confusing. Given the Twins emerged from nowhere in 2015 and won 83 games finishing 2nd in the AL Central, how can that be immediately dismissed?
 
In 2016, Paul Molitor had virtually the same starting infield as he did the year prior (save for Eduardo Escobar replacing Danny Santana at shortstop). He had a new outfield that consisted of Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, and Eddie Rosario as opposed to the 2015 contingent of Oswaldo Arcia, Jordan Schafer, and Torii Hunter. Picking up the extra at bats as the designated hitter was Byungho Park instead of the replaced Kennys Vargas from 2015. As a whole, the Opening Day lineup remained a virtual clone.
 
On the mound, Tyler Duffey replaced Mike Pelfrey in the big league rotation. The bullpen was thrown together with relatively similar pieces, and Molitor had a couple of new coaches at his disposal. What held true though was that nothing was truly groundbreaking.
 
Here's the thing though, in 2015 the Twins overachieved significantly. Virtually all metrics suggested regression was coming, and the fact of the matter was there were too many placeholders to simply fill all of the holes. If 2015 gave you as a fan hope for 2016, you were likely as misguided as suggesting 2016 is a precursor for the season to come.
 
So Jose Berrios, Byron Buxton, and Miguel Sano are prospects you've heard about forever and haven't produced to the level you perceived? Is it incredibly surprising that a 22 year-old and two 23 year-old's are taking a bit longer to adjust at the big league level? Of course it isn't. Sano already has 40 career homers under his belt, Berrios has made a handful of starts, and Buxton is already playing Gold Glove caliber defense. At 23 years old, Kirby Puckett was at Single-A and Johan Santana was a reliever with a career 5.90 ERA.
 
Exposure has given us a heightened level of insight into young prospects. There's lists, articles, Twitter, and countless other sources of information for the game's next stars. You may hear about a player earlier, but that doesn't change the adjustment period, or the reality that knowledge beyond those sources is key to understanding how quickly a kid may take to a man's game.
 
Rounding out the trio of complaints is the one that encompasses both the overlooking of past results, and well as current roster construction. Why didn't Derek Falvey and Thad Levine come in and do more this offseason? The long and short of it is that they didn't have to. Both astute baseball minds, they realize this club is going to need to be carried by the likes of the Sano's and Buxton's. Signing a big bat, or a major arm, prior to the young guys being ready to shoulder more of the load, is a wasted year.
 
Going into the offseason, I suggested multiple times that standing pat would be a good place for the Twins. I was interested in Wilson Ramos pre-injury. Jason Castro emerged, and then made immediate sense. He helps to address pitching and defense, is a low cost signing, and can hit at least to the level Kurt Suzuki was capable of. Outside of that, a throw in reliever until some of the young arms made sense. Minnesota has really strong relief prospects, and blocking them with significant retread veterans never would have been a good idea.
 
Right now, the Twins executed everything as they needed to, and really, it's on you to see that. There's no one suggesting this club is making the playoffs, and even a .500 record would be a nice bonus. They aren't close to a 59 win team though, and the reasoning is relatively simple. The youth will continue to develop, and banking on those names you've heard forever to be stars is still a good bet. Finally, when it comes time to supplement with outside talent (and Minnesota is close to that point), then Falvey and Levine will be aware of the fact they are building, and not rebuilding.
 
Don't miss the boat, and don't throw out baseless frustration. Whether comment sections, casual discussion, Twitter, or some other place is your stomping ground, have a little foundation to stand upon when considering what is being brought to the table. Baseball is a sport that allows you to consume it in multiple different ways. Understanding that opinions are also a reflection of that is a must.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Let me preface with the reality that fandom comes in different shapes and sizes. I realize there are those that are more casual observers, and there are diehards. There are those who watch the game, and then there are those that know the game. Simply defining someone watching Minnesota Twins baseball as a fan doesn't do the categorization justice. When it comes to the 2017 home nine though, there seems to be a growing and unfortunate confusion.
 
Arguably the most frustrating notion is that this team is destined to be bad because, well, they lost 103 games last season. That's absolutely a fact regarding the loss total, outside of that, the statement couldn't be less confusing. Given the Twins emerged from nowhere in 2015 and won 83 games finishing 2nd in the AL Central, how can that be immediately dismissed?
 
In 2016, Paul Molitor had virtually the same starting infield as he did the year prior (save for Eduardo Escobar replacing Danny Santana at shortstop). He had a new outfield that consisted of Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, and Eddie Rosario as opposed to the 2015 contingent of Oswaldo Arcia, Jordan Schafer, and Torii Hunter. Picking up the extra at bats as the designated hitter was Byungho Park instead of the replaced Kennys Vargas from 2015. As a whole, the Opening Day lineup remained a virtual clone.
 
On the mound, Tyler Duffey replaced Mike Pelfrey in the big league rotation. The bullpen was thrown together with relatively similar pieces, and Molitor had a couple of new coaches at his disposal. What held true though was that nothing was truly groundbreaking.
 
Here's the thing though, in 2015 the Twins overachieved significantly. Virtually all metrics suggested regression was coming, and the fact of the matter was there were too many placeholders to simply fill all of the holes. If 2015 gave you as a fan hope for 2016, you were likely as misguided as suggesting 2016 is a precursor for the season to come.
 
So Jose Berrios, Byron Buxton, and Miguel Sano are prospects you've heard about forever and haven't produced to the level you perceived? Is it incredibly surprising that a 22 year-old and two 23 year-old's are taking a bit longer to adjust at the big league level? Of course it isn't. Sano already has 40 career homers under his belt, Berrios has made a handful of starts, and Buxton is already playing Gold Glove caliber defense. At 23 years old, Kirby Puckett was at Single-A and Johan Santana was a reliever with a career 5.90 ERA.
 
Exposure has given us a heightened level of insight into young prospects. There's lists, articles, Twitter, and countless other sources of information for the game's next stars. You may hear about a player earlier, but that doesn't change the adjustment period, or the reality that knowledge beyond those sources is key to understanding how quickly a kid may take to a man's game.
 
Rounding out the trio of complaints is the one that encompasses both the overlooking of past results, and well as current roster construction. Why didn't Derek Falvey and Thad Levine come in and do more this offseason? The long and short of it is that they didn't have to. Both astute baseball minds, they realize this club is going to need to be carried by the likes of the Sano's and Buxton's. Signing a big bat, or a major arm, prior to the young guys being ready to shoulder more of the load, is a wasted year.
 
Going into the offseason, I suggested multiple times that standing pat would be a good place for the Twins. I was interested in Wilson Ramos pre-injury. Jason Castro emerged, and then made immediate sense. He helps to address pitching and defense, is a low cost signing, and can hit at least to the level Kurt Suzuki was capable of. Outside of that, a throw in reliever until some of the young arms made sense. Minnesota has really strong relief prospects, and blocking them with significant retread veterans never would have been a good idea.
 
Right now, the Twins executed everything as they needed to, and really, it's on you to see that. There's no one suggesting this club is making the playoffs, and even a .500 record would be a nice bonus. They aren't close to a 59 win team though, and the reasoning is relatively simple. The youth will continue to develop, and banking on those names you've heard forever to be stars is still a good bet. Finally, when it comes time to supplement with outside talent (and Minnesota is close to that point), then Falvey and Levine will be aware of the fact they are building, and not rebuilding.
 
Don't miss the boat, and don't throw out baseless frustration. Whether comment sections, casual discussion, Twitter, or some other place is your stomping ground, have a little foundation to stand upon when considering what is being brought to the table. Baseball is a sport that allows you to consume it in multiple different ways. Understanding that opinions are also a reflection of that is a must.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Coming into this offseason, I made the contention that the Minnesota Twins didn't need to make a ton of moves. Despite losing 103 games a year ago, you'd be blind to look at the roster and see a makeup worthy of that result. In reality, the club fell flat, but has the pieces in place to begin to supplement for the future. This offseason, the new regime has made the narrative one of putting players on notice.
 
As I alluded to not too long ago, this Twins club is no longer in rebuilding mode. Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, and Jose Berrios need to be the workhorses they have been touted as for the club to take the next step. Instead, the organization finds itself in a place of supplementation. That is, to push the envelope by adding from outside of the organization. In a piece over at Twins Daily, Nick Nelson did a great job highlighting the focus on defense, and the effect that should have in the wins column for Paul Molitor's club.
 
In bringing on defensive talent, and really other veteran options as a whole, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have signified they are done playing the waiting game. No longer is standing idly by and hoping that up and coming youth plays out looking like it's going to fly with this front office.
 
With some real question marks to round out the 25 man roster, veteran options such as J.B. Shuck, Drew Stubbs, Ryan Vogelsong, Nick Tepesch, and Chris Gimenez find themselves in big league camp pushing for a job. For those holdovers in the Twins organization, they can bet each of those guys is coming to Fort Myers with the intention of taking their job.
 
Most notably however, it appears that the Twins are sending pointed messages to players such as Danny Santana and Eddie Rosario. Santana is a guy that really has no position, and doesn't do much of anything with the bat. His lone perceived value is that he can occupy space all over the field, but that comes with the caveat that it's below average no matter where he stands. With the acquisition of Adrianza, it would certainly appear that Minnesota is willing to move on from that perception for the added value of a defensive wizard.
 
A guy like Adrianza isn't going to be pushing for MVP votes any time soon, but bringing in a glove first bench player suggests that Minnesota may be done allowing Santana to skate by. Having not made adjustments since an inflated rookie campaign, the former shortstop prospect has continued to stumble down the reliability meter. Although Santana would need to be DFA'd and clear waivers, I'm not certain the Twins care too much at this point.
 
Too a lesser extent, Rosario appears to be in the crosshairs as well. He too had a very strong rookie season and has taken significant steps backwards since. Bolstered by 15 triples, and held up by outfield assists, both offensively and defensively Rosario left plenty to be desired in his second season. He continues to have a lopsided strikeout to walk ratio, and effort concerns have always loomed close to the young Puerto Rican.
 
At this point, I'd guess Rosario remains safe with Robbie Grossman and a host of other vets vying for that filler outfield spot. That being said, a poor performance process wise, as well as on the field, this spring could spell his demise. Along the same vein as Santana, Minnesota appears to want to see each of their roster spots earned, and the competition isn't simply has-been reunion stories.
 
Minor league deals have virtually no downside given the lack of promise they uphold. For a team like the Twins trying to stretch extra wins out of anywhere possible, bringing win competition to either take over or motivate those that end up on their Opening Day roster is far from a bad move. If I were Danny Santana or Eddie Rosario, I'd be treating Fort Myers like it's October baseball from the get go.
 
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Coming into this offseason, I made the contention that the Minnesota Twins didn't need to make a ton of moves. Despite losing 103 games a year ago, you'd be blind to look at the roster and see a makeup worthy of that result. In reality, the club fell flat, but has the pieces in place to begin to supplement for the future. This offseason, the new regime has made the narrative one of putting players on notice.
 
As I alluded to not too long ago, this Twins club is no longer in rebuilding mode. Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, and Jose Berrios need to be the workhorses they have been touted as for the club to take the next step. Instead, the organization finds itself in a place of supplementation. That is, to push the envelope by adding from outside of the organization. In a piece over at Twins Daily, Nick Nelson did a great job highlighting the focus on defense, and the effect that should have in the wins column for Paul Molitor's club.
 
In bringing on defensive talent, and really other veteran options as a whole, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have signified they are done playing the waiting game. No longer is standing idly by and hoping that up and coming youth plays out looking like it's going to fly with this front office.
 
With some real question marks to round out the 25 man roster, veteran options such as J.B. Shuck, Drew Stubbs, Ryan Vogelsong, Nick Tepesch, and Chris Gimenez find themselves in big league camp pushing for a job. For those holdovers in the Twins organization, they can bet each of those guys is coming to Fort Myers with the intention of taking their job.
 
Most notably however, it appears that the Twins are sending pointed messages to players such as Danny Santana and Eddie Rosario. Santana is a guy that really has no position, and doesn't do much of anything with the bat. His lone perceived value is that he can occupy space all over the field, but that comes with the caveat that it's below average no matter where he stands. With the acquisition of Adrianza, it would certainly appear that Minnesota is willing to move on from that perception for the added value of a defensive wizard.
 
A guy like Adrianza isn't going to be pushing for MVP votes any time soon, but bringing in a glove first bench player suggests that Minnesota may be done allowing Santana to skate by. Having not made adjustments since an inflated rookie campaign, the former shortstop prospect has continued to stumble down the reliability meter. Although Santana would need to be DFA'd and clear waivers, I'm not certain the Twins care too much at this point.
 
Too a lesser extent, Rosario appears to be in the crosshairs as well. He too had a very strong rookie season and has taken significant steps backwards since. Bolstered by 15 triples, and held up by outfield assists, both offensively and defensively Rosario left plenty to be desired in his second season. He continues to have a lopsided strikeout to walk ratio, and effort concerns have always loomed close to the young Puerto Rican.
 
At this point, I'd guess Rosario remains safe with Robbie Grossman and a host of other vets vying for that filler outfield spot. That being said, a poor performance process wise, as well as on the field, this spring could spell his demise. Along the same vein as Santana, Minnesota appears to want to see each of their roster spots earned, and the competition isn't simply has-been reunion stories.
 
Minor league deals have virtually no downside given the lack of promise they uphold. For a team like the Twins trying to stretch extra wins out of anywhere possible, bringing win competition to either take over or motivate those that end up on their Opening Day roster is far from a bad move. If I were Danny Santana or Eddie Rosario, I'd be treating Fort Myers like it's October baseball from the get go.
 
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It's often said that you're only as good as your weakest link. In sports, this proves vital when a team makes a playoff run, and every outcome matters. For the 2017 Minnesota Twins, a playoff run seems a bit lofty, but the club could look to vault themselves forward by upping the production from the bottom of their roster.
 
Given that a big league baseball team is able to deploy 25 players at any given time, the roster remains in flux throughout the majority of the season. For the Minnesota Twins though, one player that could be improved upon prior to leaving Spring Training in Fort Myers is super utility man Danny Santana.
 
Describing Santana as a super utility player may be also highlighting his greatest asset to the club. The idea that he can play all over is really where the benefits stop, because in reality, his roster spot causes extreme pause. Since his inflated .405 BABIP rookie season, Santana has slashed .227/.259/.308 in 166 major league games the past two years. He's contributed just 29 extra base hits, and his 123/18 K/BB ratio is anything but ideal.
 
Then there's that idea that Santana is some sort of a utility player capable of playing all over the diamond. Defensive metrics are a fickle beast, but across the board, none of them are kind to Santana. In 2016 alone, Santana was worth -8 DRS combining six different positions. In 2015, the former shortstop was worth -15 DRS proving to be an extreme liability in the infield. Thus far defensively, Santana has shown he doesn't have the chops to play center or short, and he's miscast as a body virtually everywhere else.
 
Looking at what Santana provides at the plate, the Twins should see a lot to be desired as well. He owns nearly a 12% career swinging strike rate that has elevated the past two seasons. He chases pitches out of the zone 40% of the time, and he makes hard contact just over a quarter of the time. To summarize, Santana isn't a fit in the field, doesn't carry a big bat, and is really a theoretical asset.
 
So, what do the Twins do to address the issue?
 
What it comes down to for Minnesota and Paul Molitor, is whether or not they can get over the idea that Santana provides value where he doesn't. Is it beneficial to have a player on the bench that can simply step up to the plate and occupy a fielding position, or is there someone who can push the envelop a bit further? Minnesota may not have an immediate utility bench type outside of Eduardo Escobar, but they could push the overall roster talent upwards by having more of a sure thing.
 
It's interesting that the organization decided to DFA Byungho Park prior to considering Danny Santana. While it may have been a lot to ask for the Twins to carry Park, Kennys Vargas, and Joe Mauer all on the big league roster, exposing Byungho to waivers first doesn't seem like the best bet. There's not a ton of veteran options in Minnesota's camp, but using Fort Myers as a proving ground to find a Santana replacement really should be a must.
 
Zach Granite may only be able to play the outfield, and Engelb Vielma may not hit at all, but players like those have true assets in one category or another. If the Twins can find someone to bring any real value on either side of the ball, moving on from Danny Santana (out of options and all) may not be a bad thing.
 
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Over the course of a 162 game season, it's incredibly inevitable that injuries are going to take place. The depth of even the strongest 40 man rosters are often tested in the game of baseball. While the Minnesota Twins have experienced their fair share, they've also been behind the eight ball far too often.
 
Just this last season three key examples of reactivity as a detriment come to mind for Minnesota, and one came to a head as Byungho Park was DFA'd by the new front office. Each of Trevor Plouffe, Alex Meyer, and Park were grossly mishandled (or so it would seem) by the Twins training staff a season ago.
 
Park, who was recently jettisoned off the 40 man roster to make room for recently acquired Matt Belisle, ended his rookie season with season ending wrist surgery. That surgery didn't take place until September, after he had been optioned to Triple-A. Back in July, Park missed time due to the injury, he wasn't DL'd until landing on the shelf with Rochester in August, and there weren't corrective measures taken until the surgery in September.
 
In Park's last 30 games at the big league level for the Twins (May 17-June 28), he slashed just .123/.208/.236. After starting .257/.339/.578 through his first 32 games, it was pretty clear regression had move in for some reason or another. Given that he was a prolific slugger coming over to a new test for the first time, it would stand to reason that Park was doing what he could to give his new club more than he currently had.
 
Then, other the opposite end of the spectrum is a veteran that may have been in the same boat. Last season, Trevor Plouffe dealt with plenty of side injuries that no doubt played into what was somewhat of a disappointing year. He suffered a groin injury early in the summer, then cracked a rib in July. The cracked rib was initially diagnosed as "sore ribs" by the Twins, and the third basemen attempted to play through it. As the season drew to a close, another DL stint was pushed off as a strained oblique became the latest thing to sap Plouffe's production.
 
In 2016, Plouffe's .723 OPS was his lowest since the 2013 season, and in part, indicative of a player that never was able to take the field with a clean bill of health. It's admirable when a vet wants to go out and battle, especially an arbitration case like Plouffe, but again the Twins training staff did him no favors. He was allowed to participate to his detriment on multiple occasions, and injuries went wrongly diagnosed for a period as well.
 
Rounding out the most noticeable trio from 2016, and arguably the most egregious, is former prospect Alex Meyer. To be fair, the Twins did a less than ideal job of developing Meyer into the frontline starter he was dubbed as, but their handling of his body may have been even worse.
 
On May 3, 2016 Alex Meyer pitched for the Twins and lasted just 2.2 IP. He was then optioned to Triple-A Rochester. Despite having shoulder issues, he was simply called day-to-day for 32 days. He wasn't DL'd until June 3rd. The Twins didn't have him throwing, they didn't have more information, the simply did nothing for what was once considered a top tier starting prospect.
 
When the Twins dealt Alex Meyer to the Los Angeles Angels on August 1st with Ricky Nolasco, he ended his time with Minnesota having not pitched since May 3. The Angels placed Meyer on the minor league 7 day DL immediately to work a roster spot, but had him back on the mound pitching on August 13. The organization invested time into getting him healthy, and had him contribute five starts in September for the big league club.
 
Ron Gardenhire was often chastised for how he handled roster movement with injured players. He'd carry a guy not available for too long, only to DL them and leave the club short for a longer period of time. In recent memory, the Twins process has been to slap a day-to-day designation on a player (Byron Buxton has also experienced this fate), despite seemingly having no real plan on how to get players healthy.
 
Given that I'm unfamiliar with the inner workings of the training department, and what Dave Pruemer and his staff have as goals, I can't point an exact finger. What is apparent though, is that the Minnesota Twins seem to be an incredibly reactive organization when it comes to injuries, and it often works to the detriment of their players. Guys like Park, Plouffe, and Meyer all were worse off for how the Twins handled their setbacks a season ago. For a team needing every advantage possible, poor injury management isn't something ideal to fall under.
 
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It wasn't the 11th hour, but times were getting desperate in Los Angeles. The Dodgers had spent the entire winter talking with the Minnesota Twins about the possibility of acquiring All Star second basemen Brian Dozier. Needing a second basemen to fix a glaring hole occupied by the aging Chase Utley a season ago, the Dodgers needed to act. In the end, they did, but it wasn't with the Twins.
 
Trading pitching prospect Jose De Leon to the Tampa Bay Rays for Logan Forysthe, the Dodgers found their man. Forsythe is 30 years old, and under team control for the next two years (with an $8.5m team option for 2018). He was worth 2.8 fWAR in 2016, 4.0 in 2014, and -0.5 three years ago in 2014.
 
How does that stack up against the Twins Dozier? Brian is just a bit younger still at 29, but is also under team control for each of the next two seasons. He was worth 5.9 fWAR as an All Star in 2016, and has been worth 2.5, 4.7, and 3.3 fWAR from 2013-2015 respectively. While very similar, the Twins two bagger is the slightly superior big leaguer.
 
In dealing De Leon straight up for Forsythe, the Twins position that there man was worth more than a 1-for-1 deal becomes immediately justified. Where the Twins maybe outkicked their coverage, was in who they were asking for along with the top pitching prospect. Names like Yadier Alvarez, Walker Buehler, and Cody Bellinger were all thrown around. Los Angeles had no compelling reason to move any of those three, and it's understandable why they'd draw a line there. Had Minnesota stepped back to Brock Stewart or Willie Calhoun, they may have found a more willing dance partner.
 
At the end of the day, it comes down to opportunity cost for Los Angeles. In nabbing Forsythe, they get a lesser second basemen than the one the originally were targeting, but they also hold onto more of their assets. De Leon has some shoulder concerns, and the Dodgers have been said to be lower on him than other organizations may be. While Stewart and Calhoun aren't top tier guys, they provide strong depth that now stays on the farm. Los Angeles decided the added boost from Dozier wasn't worth the premium price tag.
 
With it being all but certain now that Dozier stays in Minnesota for the forseeable future, the Twins have left themselves with a couple different realities at play. First and foremost, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine stepped in and had an immediate strong showing. As noted at the end of Nick Nelson's piece, the way in which the front office stood their ground was impressive, and is something Terry Ryan probably wasn't known for. It will absolutely influence how other teams go about business with the Twins new brass in the future.
 
Secondly though, the Twins have kept one of the best second basemen in all of baseball on their roster. The harm in that in and of itself is nil, the downside comes in how he is supported. At this point, the free agent market is left with virtual holdovers saved for a few names. There's not a significant impact player or two that is going to turn the Twins reality around. Dozier deserves to have talent brought in to supplement his play, but spending to do so is something the former regime wound up doing far too often.
 
Instead, the Twins should sit and wait. Last season was a mirage of sorts in that the club wasn't the blueprint of a 103 loss team. Pitching was awful, and the offense was nonexistent at times, but the youth expected to carry the group mostly was trying to find its way. You can make the argument that even an upward trend towards mediocrity should give the Twins a realistic shot at something like 80 wins in 2017, and that'd be a heck of a turnaround in and of itself.
 
That being said, Dozier can dictate how Falvey and Levine support him. Should he back up his incredible 2016, or really just stay somewhere in the middle of his past two seasons, he could become a trade candidate to a contender in July. More likely though, he gives Minnesota some strong play, and factors into their 2018 plans as well. With money owed to Glen Perkins and Joe Mauer quickly nearing a close, Minnesota will have plenty of funds at its disposal to bring in impact players both on the mound and in the field for the 2018 season.
 
Right now, the Cleveland Indians remain well positioned in the AL Central. Outside of that though, the Royals are treading water, the Tigers are aging, and the White Sox are reliant on a full scale rebuild. If the Twins want to spend and supplement a year from now, it's hard to scoff at the idea they'd have a shot at being at least a divisional contender.
 
Stocking the farm is something that Levine and Falvey need to make a priority. The reason it's bare though, is because of the talent having graduated to the big league level. It'll be on the backs of the former top prospects that a turnaround needs to happen for the Twins. Asking Brian Dozier to be a part of that is far from a bad idea, and spending on the group as a whole a year from now would make everyone happy.
 
As Spring Training approached, the Dodgers balked on the game of chicken first. They looked at an opportunity cost being too steep and went a different direction. The haul Minnesota likely deserved was never there, and the organization was right by holding serve. Now it'll be on them to follow up the second half of the process and make Dozier feel supported throughout the lineup.
 
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There's no nice way to put it, the pitching for the Minnesota Twins was absolutely abysmal in 2016. While the club set a franchise record losing 103 games, they very easily could've avoided that fate by getting just a bit more out of the production turned in from the rubber. This season, Paul Molitor doesn't have a significantly revamped staff, but there's a few key cogs that could turn heads.
 
While I'm not naive enough to believe that the Twins are all of a sudden going to be one of the best pitching teams in the American League, there is a path for a turnaround. Trevor May can stay healthy in the rotation, Phil Hughes could bounce back, and Jose Berrios has yet to truly emerge. Stepping aside from the big names though, I'd like to focus on a returning commodity, and one that is new to the organization.
 
First, Tyler Duffey presents the Twins with an interesting opportunity. At 26 years old, Duffey has turned in 36 starts across two big league seasons thus far. His rookie year saw a pitcher that limited damage by keeping the ball in the yard and striking out opposing batters. As the book got out on him, and his impressive curveball, he served up 25 dingers in 2016 while being demoted back to Triple-A. I'm not sure I want to dub Duffey as a "failed starter," but I'm pretty confident he can be of more use in the pen.
 
A former closer at Rice University, Duffey has the chops, and the pure stuff, to get hitters out in a more limited role. Over the course of his career, he's allowed a .963 OPS to batters from the 4th inning on. When facing batters in the first three innings, he's limited them to just a .743 OPS. As with most pitchers, his OPS rises the more often he faces an opposing hitter in a game. Unfortunately for Duffey, it drastically jumps from .639 the first time around to .976 in their second appearance.
 
On top of being a pitcher that hitters adjust to, Duffey's best stuff really includes only two pitches. He's got a fastball that sits in the low-90s and a curveball that is easily his best pitch. In his big league time, he's thrown a changeup just 5.5% of the time. Duffey also isn't a guy that generates a ton of swing and misses in his current role. His big league number comes in at just 8.9% while allowing opposing hitters to make contact over 81% of the time. In a relief role, I think the tides turn in his favor some.
 
Asking Duffey to start out in middle relief, with the potential to use him in a bit more high leverage, could be a really good thing. Out of the pen, his fastball should trend more towards the mid-90s with his curveball being a big yakker as an out pitch. Minnesota has a deficiency in the bullpen as well, and casting Tyler in the right role could be a great move for both parties. I'm sure he'll get a chance to start this spring, but with so many options, moving him to a full time relief role makes a lot of sense.
 
The other guy is someone that I see having the potential to help Minnesota either in starting or in relief. Justin Haley was selected with the first overall pick in the Rule 5 Draft for a reason, Minnesota thinks he can help them right now. While the Twins have had success in the Rule 5 Draft in the form of players such as Johan Santana and Ryan Pressly, I'm not ready to call Haley a guarantee. What I do think is that he has a strong enough floor that no matter how he's used, he can be effective.
 
At 25 years old and yet to debut, Haley is no spring chicken or top prospect. However, the former Red Sox 6th round pick has seen success at each level of the farm system, and should have a pretty smooth projectability. Striking out right around eight batters per nine and walking right about three per nine over the past two seasons at Double and Triple-A, he could be a serviceable arm at the back end of the rotation. If Molitor wants to hide him a bit more, he looks like the makings of a swing man in the pen, that can eat innings and get big league hitters out,
 
Haley has never been significantly bittern by the longball, and has posted some pretty respectable FIP numbers. I wouldn't expect him to come in and contend for the Rookie of the Year, but if he ends up being a consistent back-end starter or reliable reliever, I'd be far from shocked.
 
It's going to take scenarios like this playing out for the Twins to turn the tide on their pitching woes. The reality is that the system may not have a true ace in it, and the big league level doesn't have much to hang its hat on either. I really like the pieces and depth that Minnesota has at its disposal, but an immediate turnaround will require guys rising to the occasion. If given the opportunity, I'd be on both Duffey and Haley answering that call.
 
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This offseason, the Minnesota Twins haven't done much to add to a club that lost a franchise worst 103 games a season ago. While a rebuild seems logical, and a new front office has been installed, it's hard to fault the organization for taking a wait and see approach. Offensively this club isn't in a bad place, and while pitching is an issue, it shouldn't be historically bad again. However, looking at the potential 25 man roster, there's two former prospects that could be on the outside looking in.
 
First as primarily an outfielder, and maybe more egregiously a super utility player, Danny Santana comes to mind. At 26 years old, he's hardly a kid anymore, and the BABIP inflated rookie debut seems like a distant memory. After slashing .319/.353/.472 in 2014, he's combined to slash a paltry .227/.259/.308 over 166 games the past two seasons. What started out as a nice outfield emergence has turned into a player with a ton of question marks.
 
Arguably the largest feather in Santana's cap is that he's out of options. Minnesota can no longer hope he works on things in Rochester, and any trip to Triple-A would require him to pass through waivers unclaimed (unlikely). At the big league level though, it's hard to find value outside of a guy that can simply occupy space. Defensively, Santana has been nothing short of underwhelming. He was worth -15 DRS at SS in 2015 prior to losing the job, and he cost the Twins -9 DRS in the outfield over 63 games a season ago. With an already suspect pitching staff, poor defense isn't an ideal pairing.
 
At the plate, Santana's swinging strike rate has increased yearly, and it's been in tandem with a declining contact number. He's a guy that relies on his speed to stretch bases, although he's not much of a base stealer either. Walking less than 4% of the time over the course of his career, his plate approach leaves plenty to be desired and doesn't give him an ideal lineup spot.
 
In short, Santana is a guy that the Twins could absolutely carry as a 25th man out of fear that he's plucked on waivers. Most organizations have someone similar to Santana, but as a reclamation project in a more defined role on a decent club, he could have value. In keeping Santana however, the Twins would be failing to capitalize on an opportunity to stretch the upside at the back end of their 25 man roster. A player like Santana isn't the difference in contending, but he represents an area where a known commodity can be replaced with higher-ceiling talent.
 
That brings us to another Twin that had a bit more prospect steam going for him, Kennys Vargas. A year ago, Vargas posted an .833 OPS, but it was almost solely carried by 18 games in the middle of the summer. Joining Minnesota on July 4, Vargas slashed .333/.446/.683 through July 31. In that span he mashed four homers while drawing 13 walks to go with his 18 strikeouts. If Paul Molitor could get anything close to that consistently he'd have to be elated. Vargas then played just 29 more games for Minnesota slashing .163/.252/.380 with six homers and a 39/11 strikeout to walk ratio.
 
A power guy that has failed to command the zone, Minnesota has demoted Vargas previously for his lack of home run production. He was granted another option year this season, and that stands to weigh heavily in the Twins decision making during roster crunch time.
 
Things were a bit more encouraging for Vargas a season ago. he hits the ball hard, and his 40% hard hit rate was the best of his career. He also decreased his swinging strike number to just under 12% and posted a rising contact rate. The unfortunate reality though is that Vargas owns a career contact number of just 71.8%. For a guy his size, and making contact less frequently, you'd absolutely expect to see more balls leave the yard.
 
Defensively, Vargas is far from a black hole. In 32 games he posted just -1 DRS and was serviceable more often than not. He's far from the Gold Glove caliber defense that Joe Mauer has developed at first base, but as a secondary option, he's better than passable. Given that the Twins have a glut of designated hitter types, Vargas will always have to bring his mitt to the yard if he wants to carve out regular playing time.
 
Quite possibly the biggest deterrent for Vargas' chances to make the Opening Day roster rest on the shoulders of Byungho Park. After being acquired by the previous regime, there's reason to wonder how both Derek Falvey and Thad Levine view the former Korean Baseball Organization slugger. Coming back healthy after a wrist injury, I expect a nice turnaround year for Park, and his second season in the big leagues should overshadow his first. With Vargas able to start at Triple-A, it would make sense to reason that first base alongside Mauer, is Park's job to lose.
 
I'm not sold on either Danny Santana or Kennys Vargas being everyday big leaguers for the Minnesota Twins or otherwise. Of the two though, it's Santana that strikes me as less of a loss should he be jettisoned from the organization. There's always going to be appeal for power guys in today's game, and while Vargas profiles as such, I'm not sure there's been enough convincing done to suggest he can deliver just yet.
 
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We've now turned the calendar to 2017, and the offseason is quickly coming to a close. The Minnesota Twins will report to sunny Fort Myers in a matter of weeks, and shortly thereafter Opening Day will be upon us. Dominating headlines this winter has been what the Twins will do with Brian Dozier, and it is in that decision that we can raise questions about what the plan for the future is.
 
Conventional wisdom says that the Twins should trade Brian Dozier for the best possible return. He's the club's best player, coming off of a career year, and there's just two years left on his team friendly contract. While Paul Molitor's club should be a far cry from the 103 losses they suffered in 2016, expecting a deep playoff run isn't realistic either. With Minnesota arguably more than just two years away, Dozier's greatest value is in what he brings back that can supplement the next Postseason team.
 
Unfortunately, the market for Dozier hasn't materialized as Minnesota has needed it to. The Los Angeles Dodgers have seemed like the best fit from the get go, but they have also become virtually the only landing spot. While top prospect Jose De Leon is a nice get for the Twins, he alone doesn't represent fair value for the All Star second basemen. With no other bidders however, the Twins are watching as fair value is turned into what someone will pay.
 
Whether or not a trade is consummated by the two sides, I find it hard to suggest that Minnesota should take less than Dozier is worth (De Leon by himself), but the flip side is also worth questioning. If De Leon on his own is short-ending the Twins now, is holding Dozier for a potential non-existent return in the future even worse?
 
You could make the case that Brian Dozier may hold value to a contender somewhere around the 2017 trade deadline, and if you want to go further, that he may present value for Minnesota as a guy that could be tagged with a qualifying offer two years from now. Both of those hopes require that he continue to produce at a very high level however. For a guy that has reinvented himself into a power pull hitter, Dozier will need to stay ahead of opposing pitchers as he looks to keep playing at a high level.
 
So what happens when you don't trade Dozier? Well, both Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will have some explaining to do when it comes to future plans. Even though Minnesota isn't likely to lose 100+ games again in 2017, returning Dozier doesn't make them relevant. Worse is that in returning Dozier, and with the free agent market where it is, the roster will be constructed in virtually an identical way it was a season ago. That development would signify a hesitancy to rebuild, while not committing to an ability to compete.
 
The reason Brian Dozier has been tabbed as such a fit for the Dodgers is because they are a couple pieces short of a World Series, and second base appears the most vacant hole. A team like the Dodgers is in a position to give up top prospects to win now. They have up and coming talent, while also being in a position where one or two pieces put them in a contender position. Unfortunately for the Twins, the farm system is non-existent with virtually all prospects of value being at the big league level, and the major league club isn't yet ready to turn the corner.
 
On his own, Dozier is a luxury for Minnesota at this point. He represents a player that is out of position given the organizational structure. With the new brain trust deciding not to bring in any real firepower, top notch pitching or positional talent, Dozier stands to be a wasted commodity should he remain in the organization.
 
There's still reason to believe Dozier is moved; obviously the offseason isn't over. That said, if Minnesota decides to hold on him while not bringing in other top tier talent, the reality of some weird purgatory will set in. This team isn't going anywhere this year, and asking Brian Dozier to stick around to witness it while deciding against future plans seems like an odd decision.
 
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We've now turned the calendar to 2017, and the offseason is quickly coming to a close. The Minnesota Twins will report to sunny Fort Myers in a matter of weeks, and shortly thereafter Opening Day will be upon us. Dominating headlines this winter has been what the Twins will do with Brian Dozier, and it is in that decision that we can raise questions about what the plan for the future is.
 
Conventional wisdom says that the Twins should trade Brian Dozier for the best possible return. He's the club's best player, coming off of a career year, and there's just two years left on his team friendly contract. While Paul Molitor's club should be a far cry from the 103 losses they suffered in 2016, expecting a deep playoff run isn't realistic either. With Minnesota arguably more than just two years away, Dozier's greatest value is in what he brings back that can supplement the next Postseason team.
 
Unfortunately, the market for Dozier hasn't materialized as Minnesota has needed it to. The Los Angeles Dodgers have seemed like the best fit from the get go, but they have also become virtually the only landing spot. While top prospect Jose De Leon is a nice get for the Twins, he alone doesn't represent fair value for the All Star second basemen. With no other bidders however, the Twins are watching as fair value is turned into what someone will pay.
 
Whether or not a trade is consummated by the two sides, I find it hard to suggest that Minnesota should take less than Dozier is worth (De Leon by himself), but the flip side is also worth questioning. If De Leon on his own is short-ending the Twins now, is holding Dozier for a potential non-existent return in the future even worse?
 
You could make the case that Brian Dozier may hold value to a contender somewhere around the 2017 trade deadline, and if you want to go further, that he may present value for Minnesota as a guy that could be tagged with a qualifying offer two years from now. Both of those hopes require that he continue to produce at a very high level however. For a guy that has reinvented himself into a power pull hitter, Dozier will need to stay ahead of opposing pitchers as he looks to keep playing at a high level.
 
So what happens when you don't trade Dozier? Well, both Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will have some explaining to do when it comes to future plans. Even though Minnesota isn't likely to lose 100+ games again in 2017, returning Dozier doesn't make them relevant. Worse is that in returning Dozier, and with the free agent market where it is, the roster will be constructed in virtually an identical way it was a season ago. That development would signify a hesitancy to rebuild, while not committing to an ability to compete.
 
The reason Brian Dozier has been tabbed as such a fit for the Dodgers is because they are a couple pieces short of a World Series, and second base appears the most vacant hole. A team like the Dodgers is in a position to give up top prospects to win now. They have up and coming talent, while also being in a position where one or two pieces put them in a contender position. Unfortunately for the Twins, the farm system is non-existent with virtually all prospects of value being at the big league level, and the major league club isn't yet ready to turn the corner.
 
On his own, Dozier is a luxury for Minnesota at this point. He represents a player that is out of position given the organizational structure. With the new brain trust deciding not to bring in any real firepower, top notch pitching or positional talent, Dozier stands to be a wasted commodity should he remain in the organization.
 
There's still reason to believe Dozier is moved; obviously the offseason isn't over. That said, if Minnesota decides to hold on him while not bringing in other top tier talent, the reality of some weird purgatory will set in. This team isn't going anywhere this year, and asking Brian Dozier to stick around to witness it while deciding against future plans seems like an odd decision.
 
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Paul Molitor compiled over 3,000 hits and played in over 2,600 games in his career. He was enshrined in the Hall of Fame at Cooperstown, New York. Paul Molitor the player accomplished about as much as humanly possible of the baseball field, the managerial version has been less successful however.
 
Now with a new front office regime in Minnesota, Paul Molitor will be proving his worth to an entirely different crowd. The argument can definitely be made that the Twins manager should've been fired ending the 2016 season. His club lost a franchise worst 103 games, he looked inept at times during critical in game situations, and his reliability to the franchise's lifeblood, its youth, seemed lacking. While there was the successful 2015 campaign before it, 2016 did no favors to Paul Molitor's managerial credibility.
 
While Jim Pohlad did make the decision to begrudgingly dismiss General Manager Terry Ryan, he mandated that whoever come into the role be tied to Molitor for the 2017 season. It was a decision seen as something of a detractor to an otherwise attractive role. However, Minnesota landed their men, and now must move forward into the year that lies ahead.
 
As Derek Falvey and Thad Levine enter, the Twins now have a front office duo that combined are nearly the junior to Ryan's age. They bring a new line of thinking with them, and appear more inclined to welcome all possible avenues for growth and advancement within the franchise. On top of what they are on their own, neither men has any more tie to the former Twins (and Brewers) great than the relationship they are developing in the moment. With nothing to hang his future hat on, Molitor must know his time is now.
 
Given that the Twins will find themselves at somewhat of a crossroads in 2017, Molitor's management will come into the spotlight early and often. The club was awful a season ago due in large part to pitching that was simply not big league quality. Bouncing back to somewhere even slightly below average should give this club a decent shot at chasing a .500 record. The little things over the course of the season, and on a game-by-game basis, will determine how realistic it is that they reach or surpass that mark.
 
Without immediate notes to point to, recalling late game bunting scenarios, bullpen management, pinch hitting decision, and arguably the most egregious, lineup construction, highlight the areas in which Paul Molitor continually fell short. Having a team void of the superstar big league, Molitor will need to become a manager that does more with less, and further positions his team to achieve past their potential. It will be on both Falvey and Levine to decide whether or not Paul accomplishes that feat.
 
In 2017, Molitor will have more help around him. Going outside of the organization, the Twins have a hitting coach in James Rowson that can be no worse than the dated ideals of Tom Brunansky's "drive-the-ball-into-the-ground" style, and his over emphasis on changing hitters to all fit a similar mold. They also have brought in Jeff Pickler from the Dodgers organization, with the sole purpose being a liaison between baseball between the lines, and the game played on a piece of paper. Before anything even gets started, Molitor should find himself better positioned than he was to start the 2016 season.
 
Given no assurances, and with nothing to hang his hat on, it could be a while before Molitor finds another opportunity should this one come up empty. Molitor has long been groomed within the Twins organization, and beat out another internal candidate in the form of Doug Mientkiewicz. He'll now need to exceed the expectations of an external duo and generate a list of accomplishments that tie directly to what he has provided from the dugout's top step.
 
There's really no reason to bet against Molitor in 2017. The Twins will enter with low expectations, and pieces in place to surpass them. It's in the club's best interest to establish continuity during their rebuild, and Molitor can make a case to be at the heart of it all. If he's going to do so however, he'll need to get the buy in from his young players, and turn them into the stars Twins Territory has heard about for years. It's an uphill battle for the Minnesota native, but Paul Molitor absolutely appears to be fighting for his managerial career in 2017.
 
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Paul Molitor compiled over 3,000 hits and played in over 2,600 games in his career. He was enshrined in the Hall of Fame at Cooperstown, New York. Paul Molitor the player accomplished about as much as humanly possible of the baseball field, the managerial version has been less successful however.
 
Now with a new front office regime in Minnesota, Paul Molitor will be proving his worth to an entirely different crowd. The argument can definitely be made that the Twins manager should've been fired ending the 2016 season. His club lost a franchise worst 103 games, he looked inept at times during critical in game situations, and his reliability to the franchise's lifeblood, its youth, seemed lacking. While there was the successful 2015 campaign before it, 2016 did no favors to Paul Molitor's managerial credibility.
 
While Jim Pohlad did make the decision to begrudgingly dismiss General Manager Terry Ryan, he mandated that whoever come into the role be tied to Molitor for the 2017 season. It was a decision seen as something of a detractor to an otherwise attractive role. However, Minnesota landed their men, and now must move forward into the year that lies ahead.
 
As Derek Falvey and Thad Levine enter, the Twins now have a front office duo that combined are nearly the junior to Ryan's age. They bring a new line of thinking with them, and appear more inclined to welcome all possible avenues for growth and advancement within the franchise. On top of what they are on their own, neither men has any more tie to the former Twins (and Brewers) great than the relationship they are developing in the moment. With nothing to hang his future hat on, Molitor must know his time is now.
 
Given that the Twins will find themselves at somewhat of a crossroads in 2017, Molitor's management will come into the spotlight early and often. The club was awful a season ago due in large part to pitching that was simply not big league quality. Bouncing back to somewhere even slightly below average should give this club a decent shot at chasing a .500 record. The little things over the course of the season, and on a game-by-game basis, will determine how realistic it is that they reach or surpass that mark.
 
Without immediate notes to point to, recalling late game bunting scenarios, bullpen management, pinch hitting decision, and arguably the most egregious, lineup construction, highlight the areas in which Paul Molitor continually fell short. Having a team void of the superstar big league, Molitor will need to become a manager that does more with less, and further positions his team to achieve past their potential. It will be on both Falvey and Levine to decide whether or not Paul accomplishes that feat.
 
In 2017, Molitor will have more help around him. Going outside of the organization, the Twins have a hitting coach in James Rowson that can be no worse than the dated ideals of Tom Brunansky's "drive-the-ball-into-the-ground" style, and his over emphasis on changing hitters to all fit a similar mold. They also have brought in Jeff Pickler from the Dodgers organization, with the sole purpose being a liaison between baseball between the lines, and the game played on a piece of paper. Before anything even gets started, Molitor should find himself better positioned than he was to start the 2016 season.
 
Given no assurances, and with nothing to hang his hat on, it could be a while before Molitor finds another opportunity should this one come up empty. Molitor has long been groomed within the Twins organization, and beat out another internal candidate in the form of Doug Mientkiewicz. He'll now need to exceed the expectations of an external duo and generate a list of accomplishments that tie directly to what he has provided from the dugout's top step.
 
There's really no reason to bet against Molitor in 2017. The Twins will enter with low expectations, and pieces in place to surpass them. It's in the club's best interest to establish continuity during their rebuild, and Molitor can make a case to be at the heart of it all. If he's going to do so however, he'll need to get the buy in from his young players, and turn them into the stars Twins Territory has heard about for years. It's an uphill battle for the Minnesota native, but Paul Molitor absolutely appears to be fighting for his managerial career in 2017.
 
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The Minnesota Twins have not had a ton of needs to address this offseason. While the 2016 season produced the worst record in major league history, it was indicative of the worst pitching staff in the big leagues. With more reason to rely on internal options, addressing deficiencies through a poor free agent market never seemed like a good bet. If there was something to be addressed though, it was Brian Dozier.
 
Coming off the best season of his career, the first as an All Star, and having totaled over 40 homers for the first (and potentially only) time, Minnesota finds themselves at a crossroads. Sure, there's little room to argue that the Twins lineup isn't better with Dozier in it, but in getting back to being a playoff contender, does Dozier realistically fit in the picture?
 
It's been clear for quite some time that Minnesota was going to be forced into a decision. Jorge Polanco is an up and coming prospect that can realistically only help the Twins at second base. Dozier wasn't extended into his free agent years, will undoubtedly never be better, and is playing for a Twins squad that isn't exactly close to contending. So, does Minnesota need to trade him at all costs?
 
The short answer is yes, but the longer answer is yes with some caveats.
 
Thus far, the Los Angeles Dodgers have emerged as the likely landing spot. That has been expected since the talks of a trade were initially thought probable. Los Angeles needs just another piece or two for a World Series run, and second base remains a large hole for them. With the club now open to trading their top pitching prospect Jose De Leon, Minnesota is simply jostling with who joins him on the flight to the Twin Cities.
 
As expected, the Dozier are reluctant to trade first base prospect Cody Bellinger. He's near big league ready, looks like the real deal, and should seamlessly take over for Adrian Gonzalez. Expecting the Dodgers to deal Yadier Alvarez, whom they invested over $30 million in signing him out of Cuba, never seemed like a good bet. Asking for 2016 draft pick Walker Bueller didn't seem to be a realistic bet either. Nonetheless, Minnesota has inquired on all three and reportedly been turned down.
 
That brings up to the "trade Dozier at all costs" crossroads. Right now, the Twins have followed the best possible path in dealing their star. They made sure to guarantee that the centerpiece of any deal is included, and they've aimed as high as possible for any secondary players. Now it's time to pull the trigger and take what else you can get.
 
De Leon quite possibly helps the Twins more long term than does Dozier. Getting another prospect such as Brock Stewart or Willie Calhoun in addition is something Minnesota should feel content with. While they may not see the immediate impact that another year of Dozier may provide, understanding that any step backwards would squash the ability to move him at any time. Right now it's about asking for the stars (they have) and settling for everything you can get (they need to).
 
With how much smoke there has been this offseason in regards to Dozier moving from Minnesota to Los Angeles, you'd be hard pressed to suggest anything less than a 90 percent chance a deal is consummated. It's taking a bit longer than I imagined, but the process the Twins have followed thus far has been the right one. At this point, it's time to back off the highest ask, take what you can get, and close the chapter on a deal that should benefit both sides.
 
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The hot stove season is just around the corner, and the GM Meetings have kicked off down in Arizona. As the offseason rolls on, we'll quickly get closer and closer to free agent signings taking place at a rapid pace. I don't believe there's too many names the Twins should be in on (see here), but Jason Castro is one I really like.
 
Now I can understand why a catcher with a less than exciting hit tool might have Minnesota Twins fans down, but there's plenty more to the puzzle here. It's true that Castro owns just a .660 OPS since 2014, and that he's averaged just 12 homers per year in that span. Since 2014 however, Kurt Suzuki has just a .680 OPS and has hit a total of 16 homers. Comparing the offensive production is really splitting hairs though, the play here is on the defensive side of the field.
 
When looking at both Suzuki and Castro, you couldn't possibly find two more polar opposites. Suzuki has averaged throwing out just 19.6% of would be base stealers. Over the past three years, the league average in that statistic is 29.3%. On the flip side, Castro has caught 27.3% of would be base stealers in that same span. It's not just the arm that separates Castro though. Actually, it's the glove the really puts weight behind what the Twins are looking to do here.
 
Per StatCorner, Jason Castro was the 5th best catcher in all of baseball in 2016 when it came to generating extra strikes for his pitchers. Conversely, only 19 catchers were worse than Suzuki, and the second worst catcher in all of baseball when it came to pitch framing, was his backup Juan Centeno.
 
When behind the plate for the Astros, Jason Castro grabbed strikes outside of the zone 8.3% of the time, while allowing pitches in the zone to be called balls just 11.8% of the time (6th best among qualified catchers). Suzuki generated strikes out of the zone just 7.1% of the time while allowing should be strikes to be called balls 14.6% of the time. Understandably so, Centeno was even worse at 4.1% and 17.0% respectively.
 
It was apparent at multiple points during the 2016 Major League Baseball season that Juan Centeno had no business being behind the plate in a major league game. While Kurt Suzuki was once a respectable veteran, his presence alone is now his value to the roster as his on field performance has deteriorated to below replacement levels.
 
So, Jason Castro is a defensive stalwart, why do the Twins want to bring him in? The long and short of it is that Minnesota needs to fix its pitching problem, and focusing on the mound is expensive.
 
Right now, the Twins have a handful of arms that can at least be counted on to start games in 2017. There's at least eight realistic starting options at Paul Molitor's disposal, and they all provide a different level of projected output. Getting more out of them, prior to moving on or looking elsewhere, can realistically be accomplished by stacking the deck in their favor. A catcher that will steal them strikes, as well as ensure they are properly called, all while controlling the running game, is something the Twins haven't had since Joe Mauer was behind the dish.
 
The marriage between the Twins and Castro seems to make a lot of sense at least from the Minnesota lens. With just John Ryan Murphy and Mitch Garver as big league options, a true starter is again a need. I'd prefer to see Garver get a shot to prove himself in a backup capacity over Murphy after how each of their 2016 seasons went, but neither are capable of being the guy out of the gate. Castro is just 29 years old, and would be able to shore up the position nicely on a three year deal.
 
At this point, talks seem preliminary, and Castro will likely have multiple suitors. It works in Minnesota's favor that the Orioles didn't extend Matt Wieters a qualifying offer, and that Wilson Ramos should be game ready by May. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine can look past those two names and try to tempt the former Houston backstop with a multi year offer somewhere between $20-25 million. If it works out, the Twins would be addressing their catcher issue, but it would be through the eyes of a pitching focus.
 
Rather than spending on pitching that isn't there, this is absolutely the way you'd hope the Twins franchise address one of their largest issues.
 
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The hot stove season is just around the corner, and the GM Meetings have kicked off down in Arizona. As the offseason rolls on, we'll quickly get closer and closer to free agent signings taking place at a rapid pace. I don't believe there's too many names the Twins should be in on (see here), but Jason Castro is one I really like.
 
Now I can understand why a catcher with a less than exciting hit tool might have Minnesota Twins fans down, but there's plenty more to the puzzle here. It's true that Castro owns just a .660 OPS since 2014, and that he's averaged just 12 homers per year in that span. Since 2014 however, Kurt Suzuki has just a .680 OPS and has hit a total of 16 homers. Comparing the offensive production is really splitting hairs though, the play here is on the defensive side of the field.
 
When looking at both Suzuki and Castro, you couldn't possibly find two more polar opposites. Suzuki has averaged throwing out just 19.6% of would be base stealers. Over the past three years, the league average in that statistic is 29.3%. On the flip side, Castro has caught 27.3% of would be base stealers in that same span. It's not just the arm that separates Castro though. Actually, it's the glove the really puts weight behind what the Twins are looking to do here.
 
Per StatCorner, Jason Castro was the 5th best catcher in all of baseball in 2016 when it came to generating extra strikes for his pitchers. Conversely, only 19 catchers were worse than Suzuki, and the second worst catcher in all of baseball when it came to pitch framing, was his backup Juan Centeno.
 
When behind the plate for the Astros, Jason Castro grabbed strikes outside of the zone 8.3% of the time, while allowing pitches in the zone to be called balls just 11.8% of the time (6th best among qualified catchers). Suzuki generated strikes out of the zone just 7.1% of the time while allowing should be strikes to be called balls 14.6% of the time. Understandably so, Centeno was even worse at 4.1% and 17.0% respectively.
 
It was apparent at multiple points during the 2016 Major League Baseball season that Juan Centeno had no business being behind the plate in a major league game. While Kurt Suzuki was once a respectable veteran, his presence alone is now his value to the roster as his on field performance has deteriorated to below replacement levels.
 
So, Jason Castro is a defensive stalwart, why do the Twins want to bring him in? The long and short of it is that Minnesota needs to fix its pitching problem, and focusing on the mound is expensive.
 
Right now, the Twins have a handful of arms that can at least be counted on to start games in 2017. There's at least eight realistic starting options at Paul Molitor's disposal, and they all provide a different level of projected output. Getting more out of them, prior to moving on or looking elsewhere, can realistically be accomplished by stacking the deck in their favor. A catcher that will steal them strikes, as well as ensure they are properly called, all while controlling the running game, is something the Twins haven't had since Joe Mauer was behind the dish.
 
The marriage between the Twins and Castro seems to make a lot of sense at least from the Minnesota lens. With just John Ryan Murphy and Mitch Garver as big league options, a true starter is again a need. I'd prefer to see Garver get a shot to prove himself in a backup capacity over Murphy after how each of their 2016 seasons went, but neither are capable of being the guy out of the gate. Castro is just 29 years old, and would be able to shore up the position nicely on a three year deal.
 
At this point, talks seem preliminary, and Castro will likely have multiple suitors. It works in Minnesota's favor that the Orioles didn't extend Matt Wieters a qualifying offer, and that Wilson Ramos should be game ready by May. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine can look past those two names and try to tempt the former Houston backstop with a multi year offer somewhere between $20-25 million. If it works out, the Twins would be addressing their catcher issue, but it would be through the eyes of a pitching focus.
 
Rather than spending on pitching that isn't there, this is absolutely the way you'd hope the Twins franchise address one of their largest issues.
 
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In general, I've tried to keep a consistent level of content in each blog post. However, when considering the moves that the Minnesota Twins may make on the free agent market, it's hard not to want this post to be considerably shorter. Minnesota isn't very good, and the free agent market is even worse. Paying for mediocre talent isn't going to get the Twins out of the cellar, and that's likely what they'd have to be doing in free agency.
 
On the flip side, the Twins do have some needs, and if they aren't going to be addressed in trades, they'll need to find answers elsewhere. Given what the Twins have internally, and what the market is currently providing, here are a few names I'd be happy about Derek Falvey and Thad Levine getting in on.
 
Jason Castro C
 
Castro was once trending towards being a big name behind the plate for the Astros. At 26, he made his first All Star Game and posted an .835 OPS. Since, he's totaled just a .660 OPS across 343 games dating back to 2014. Still just 29 years old, he has plenty of catching days ahead, and it's the Twins that find themselves among the neediest teams in the majors.
 
He's above average defensively, grades out favorably with pitch framing, and has been around league average when it comes to catching would be base stealers. From Kurt Suzuki in 2016, an average defensive catcher would seem like a whole new world in Minnesota. the Twins could go with more of a stop gap option in Dioner Navarro, Geovany Soto, or even Chris Iannetta. Right now though, the Twins two best internal options are John Ryan Murphy and Mitch Garver. Both will take their lumps, and I'm not quite sure either is ready for an every day type role.
 
Neftali Feliz RP
 
In general, I'm more in favor of the Twins not signing a reliever to anything but a minor league deal this offseason. That being said, Feliz presents somewhat of an intriguing case. Having just made $3.9m on a one year deal with the Pirates in 2016, the 28 year-old Dominican had his best year since 2014. He posted a 10.2 K/9 for the first time since his 20 game debut in 2009, and his 62 games pitched were the second most in a single-season during his career.
 
You can wonder whether or not the turnaround was due to getting to work with pitching guru Ray Searage, and there's reason to caution his health. If Minnesota could get in at the right price though, he's a name I'd listen on. The 4.53 FIP isn't ideal, and that's where I'd start my negative sell. His fastball sat at 96.0 again in 2016 though, and that's the highest velocity since 2011. A pen void of hard throwers could do worse.
 
Jordan Walden RP
 
A 12th round pick by the Angels back in 2006, Walden spent his age 27 season with the Cardinals last year. Pitching in just 12 games after dealing with a shoulder injury, St. Louis declined his $5.25m option. With arm injuries being more common place for pitchers, it's hard not to look at the prospects of what a healthy Walden may present.
 
He's struck out at least 10.0/9 in each of his six big league seasons, and owns a career 10.8 K/9 acorss 222.0 IP. Walden has posted a sub 3.00 FIP in all but one big league season and has generally danced around walks by not allowing home runs. His velocity dipped down to 94 last season, but he could trend back up towards 95-96 with a clean bill of health. Negotiating against his injury, even a guaranteed big league deal, isn't something I'd shy away from at the right price.
 
At the end of the day, Minnesota needs to make more internal decisions than they do external ones. Deciding who to keep, and what assets to deal in order to advance the system as a whole is a practice that the Twins will need to get underway sooner rather than later.
 
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