Ted Schwerzler

Over the weekend, Minnesota Twins fans felt the full gambit of emotions. After announcing that Anibal Sanchez had been given a major league deal, frustration was felt in full force. A bounce-back candidate that has ugly numbers of late wasn't going to gain much confidence for a revamped starting rotation. Then, a day later, Jake Odorrizi was acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays and the tide felt like it had turned. Putting a bow on the Minnesota offseason, it's hard not to like where this team is headed.
 
Going into the offseason, the Twins had one focus in hopes of returning to Postseason play, fix the pitching. The 4.60 team ERA in 2017 came in 19th among MLB clubs, and the 7.31 K/9 was better than only the Texas Rangers. Both in the rotation and the pen, Paul Molitor's club needed better names and the ability to miss more bats. From the jump, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine knew this was where the focus had to be, and it appeared they had a plan to execute on.
 
Signing Fernando Rodney and Zach Duke, the Twins bring in two arms with little risk and a relatively high upside. Rodney is an experience, but his 10.6 K/9 is an asset, and he allows arms like Trevor Hildenberger to be deployed outside of the 9th inning. Duke isn't just a LOOGY, and he too is a punchout pitcher when healthy. There's little arguing that Addison Reed was the pen headliner this winter however. After signing a 2yr/$16.75M deal with Minnesota, Falvey and Levine had somehow landed one of the premier options on what looked like a budget deal. Yet to hit 30, Reed owns a career 9.5 K/9 and a 2/3 BB/9 that makes him arguably the best arm in Minnesota's relief corps.
 
While it's hard to overstate the importance of the three relief acquisitions on their own merits, it's also big to note what their inclusion does for Paul Molitor as a whole. Instead of rounding out the pen with toss in names, the Twins can now rely on arms like Hildenberger, Taylor Rogers, and Ryan Pressly as complimentary pieces. Again, with the goal being a raised water level across the board, the front office accomplished that to a T in the pen.
 
From the outset of the winter Minnesota was tied to starter Yu Darvish. Given all of the factors, a union of the two sides made an immeasurable amount of sense from the home town perspective. Unfortunately, Darvish chose to sign with the Chicago Cubs in the end. Falvey and Levine may have ruled themselves out by failing to match the Cubs offer, but the likelihood always remained that the former Rangers ace wanted a bigger market than the up and coming Twins. While a tough blow for sure, there's no sense of settling either.
 
With Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb, and Jake Arrieta all having their warts, the remaining top tier free agents left a decent bit to be desired. Draft pick compensation was tied to each of them, and the dollar ask would likely not be in the line with the expected level of production. Although I'll always be of the stance that you should spend from an unlimited cash pool as opposed to dealing from a limited talent pool in acquiring players, Minnesota found a way to make things look better the opposite way.
 
Netting Jake Odorizzi from the Tampa Bay Rays, the Twins gave up little more than a flier middle infielder. Jermaine Palacios went on a tear to start the 2017 season at Cedar Rapids, but struggled mightily as a 20 year-old at High-A Fort Myers. Odorizzi is a soon-to-be 28 year-old under team control for two more years, and immediately slots in among Minnesota's top three. Despite tallying his worst season as a pro in 2017, the numbers still equated to a 4.14 ERA and an 8.0 K/9. For the former Rays hurler, a 5.14 FIP and 3.8 BB/9 leave plenty of room for growth. His HR/9 rate spiked to 1.9 a season ago, and there's been plenty made about the idea that getting down in the zone could be a key to expanded success.
 
Not the headliner that Odorizzi is for Minnesota, Anibal Sanchez being brought in as a depth signing looks much better than when it was originally reported. I still think it's odd the deal needed to be of the MLB sort, guaranteeing a current 40 man roster spot despite it being uncertain that he'll make the opening day roster. The ERA there is awful, but the 8.9 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 are great marks. Sanchez posted a 2.52 FIP in his first two seasons with the Tigers, and then ballooned to a 5.01 mark the past three years. After never allowing home runs, he's gotten worse the last three seasons going from 1.7 to 1.8 to 2.2 HR/9. If Falvey saw a correctable adjustment to keep the ball in the park, that contract could end up being a steal for the Twins.
 
As with the bullpen, the goal in the rotation was to raise the overall water level. Now with Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, and Ervin Santana locked in as the top three, Minnesota has an enhanced level of depth to fill out the back end. Nothing is guaranteed for Adalberto Mejia, Kyle Gibson, Phil Hughes, or Sanchez in terms of a rotation spot. They'll all be pushed by the likes of Stephen Gonsalves, Fernado Romero, Zack Littell, and Dietrich Enns. For a club that used way too many arms, and saw a vast level of ineffectiveness at times a season ago, the situation as a whole looks much better entering 2018.
 
Given the current roster construction, I'd imagine the Twins are done adding arms. They probably have room for a bat on a minor league deal, and 1500 ESPN's Darren Wolfson has been suggesting that could be Mike Napoli for weeks now. The Rays recently DFA'd Corey Dickerson, and he'd be a huge addition for Minnesota as well. Regardless, if another move is coming, it's probably a less noteworthy offensive addition.
 
With the dust now settled, it's hard to look back on the offseason with any sort of displeasure. There was one ace out there, and the Twins chance was always a long shot. They added significant pitching in the bullpen, grabbed a good arm for the rotation, and added a couple of fliers along the way. While the division, including the Cleveland Indians, got worse, Minnesota retained it's talent and added pieces. The American League is going to be tough in 2018, with teams like the Yankees an Angels both getting better. For Minnesota, the Postseason may have to come through their own division, and you have to like how they positioned themselves for this season and beyond.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Over the weekend, Minnesota Twins fans felt the full gambit of emotions. After announcing that Anibal Sanchez had been given a major league deal, frustration was felt in full force. A bounce-back candidate that has ugly numbers of late wasn't going to gain much confidence for a revamped starting rotation. Then, a day later, Jake Odorrizi was acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays and the tide felt like it had turned. Putting a bow on the Minnesota offseason, it's hard not to like where this team is headed.
 
Going into the offseason, the Twins had one focus in hopes of returning to Postseason play, fix the pitching. The 4.60 team ERA in 2017 came in 19th among MLB clubs, and the 7.31 K/9 was better than only the Texas Rangers. Both in the rotation and the pen, Paul Molitor's club needed better names and the ability to miss more bats. From the jump, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine knew this was where the focus had to be, and it appeared they had a plan to execute on.
 
Signing Fernando Rodney and Zach Duke, the Twins bring in two arms with little risk and a relatively high upside. Rodney is an experience, but his 10.6 K/9 is an asset, and he allows arms like Trevor Hildenberger to be deployed outside of the 9th inning. Duke isn't just a LOOGY, and he too is a punchout pitcher when healthy. There's little arguing that Addison Reed was the pen headliner this winter however. After signing a 2yr/$16.75M deal with Minnesota, Falvey and Levine had somehow landed one of the premier options on what looked like a budget deal. Yet to hit 30, Reed owns a career 9.5 K/9 and a 2/3 BB/9 that makes him arguably the best arm in Minnesota's relief corps.
 
While it's hard to overstate the importance of the three relief acquisitions on their own merits, it's also big to note what their inclusion does for Paul Molitor as a whole. Instead of rounding out the pen with toss in names, the Twins can now rely on arms like Hildenberger, Taylor Rogers, and Ryan Pressly as complimentary pieces. Again, with the goal being a raised water level across the board, the front office accomplished that to a T in the pen.
 
From the outset of the winter Minnesota was tied to starter Yu Darvish. Given all of the factors, a union of the two sides made an immeasurable amount of sense from the home town perspective. Unfortunately, Darvish chose to sign with the Chicago Cubs in the end. Falvey and Levine may have ruled themselves out by failing to match the Cubs offer, but the likelihood always remained that the former Rangers ace wanted a bigger market than the up and coming Twins. While a tough blow for sure, there's no sense of settling either.
 
With Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb, and Jake Arrieta all having their warts, the remaining top tier free agents left a decent bit to be desired. Draft pick compensation was tied to each of them, and the dollar ask would likely not be in the line with the expected level of production. Although I'll always be of the stance that you should spend from an unlimited cash pool as opposed to dealing from a limited talent pool in acquiring players, Minnesota found a way to make things look better the opposite way.
 
Netting Jake Odorizzi from the Tampa Bay Rays, the Twins gave up little more than a flier middle infielder. Jermaine Palacios went on a tear to start the 2017 season at Cedar Rapids, but struggled mightily as a 20 year-old at High-A Fort Myers. Odorizzi is a soon-to-be 28 year-old under team control for two more years, and immediately slots in among Minnesota's top three. Despite tallying his worst season as a pro in 2017, the numbers still equated to a 4.14 ERA and an 8.0 K/9. For the former Rays hurler, a 5.14 FIP and 3.8 BB/9 leave plenty of room for growth. His HR/9 rate spiked to 1.9 a season ago, and there's been plenty made about the idea that getting down in the zone could be a key to expanded success.
 
Not the headliner that Odorizzi is for Minnesota, Anibal Sanchez being brought in as a depth signing looks much better than when it was originally reported. I still think it's odd the deal needed to be of the MLB sort, guaranteeing a current 40 man roster spot despite it being uncertain that he'll make the opening day roster. The ERA there is awful, but the 8.9 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 are great marks. Sanchez posted a 2.52 FIP in his first two seasons with the Tigers, and then ballooned to a 5.01 mark the past three years. After never allowing home runs, he's gotten worse the last three seasons going from 1.7 to 1.8 to 2.2 HR/9. If Falvey saw a correctable adjustment to keep the ball in the park, that contract could end up being a steal for the Twins.
 
As with the bullpen, the goal in the rotation was to raise the overall water level. Now with Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, and Ervin Santana locked in as the top three, Minnesota has an enhanced level of depth to fill out the back end. Nothing is guaranteed for Adalberto Mejia, Kyle Gibson, Phil Hughes, or Sanchez in terms of a rotation spot. They'll all be pushed by the likes of Stephen Gonsalves, Fernado Romero, Zack Littell, and Dietrich Enns. For a club that used way too many arms, and saw a vast level of ineffectiveness at times a season ago, the situation as a whole looks much better entering 2018.
 
Given the current roster construction, I'd imagine the Twins are done adding arms. They probably have room for a bat on a minor league deal, and 1500 ESPN's Darren Wolfson has been suggesting that could be Mike Napoli for weeks now. The Rays recently DFA'd Corey Dickerson, and he'd be a huge addition for Minnesota as well. Regardless, if another move is coming, it's probably a less noteworthy offensive addition.
 
With the dust now settled, it's hard to look back on the offseason with any sort of displeasure. There was one ace out there, and the Twins chance was always a long shot. They added significant pitching in the bullpen, grabbed a good arm for the rotation, and added a couple of fliers along the way. While the division, including the Cleveland Indians, got worse, Minnesota retained it's talent and added pieces. The American League is going to be tough in 2018, with teams like the Yankees an Angels both getting better. For Minnesota, the Postseason may have to come through their own division, and you have to like how they positioned themselves for this season and beyond.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Valentine's Day is here, and the highlight is simply that the Minnesota Twins have begun their first workout. While the Hallmark holiday suggests you go all out for those you love today, pitchers and catchers are active on the diamond in Fort Myers. Rather than get all sappy or dole out presents, I thought it a fun idea to check out some Twins possibilities I love to take place in 2018.
 
Looking back at the year that was in 2017, and what numbers a handful of Twins players came up with, here's a look into some projections before Vegas sets their marks. While these aren't true over unders, as I'll be looking solely at marks I believe are able to be eclipsed, the same general principle remains.
Let's get into it:
 
Byron Buxton has his first 20/20 season
 
20 steals in a full slate is something that Minnesota's centerfielder could likely accomplish running backwards. His elite speed, arguably the best in the game, is more than likely going to swipe 40 bags in the year ahead. It's the homers that are a leap, but I don't think we're diving in too far here. Coming off a season with 16 homers and wasted months, Buxton's true power stroke is real. His 27% hard hit rate has been consistent over the course of his career, and the 14% HR/FB ratio remains relatively static. Buxton's power is probably more predictable than his contact, but it's a gap type drive that produces more line drive longballs. Over the course of his career, multiple 20/20 seasons is something I'd hang my hat on.
 
Miguel Sano hits 35 homers
 
Despite having an incredible amount of power, Sano has yet to surpass second basemen Brian Dozier for the team lead in longballs over the course of a given season. In just 114 games last year, he launched 28, and that came on the heels of a 25 homer output the year prior. Sano is going to miss time at the beginning of the year due to a likely suspension, but I'd imagine it'll be 30 games or less. Coming off a leg surgery, it should give him extra time to ramp up and get conditioning to where it needs to be. As a regular in the field, Sano is probably going to be up against it on a yearly basis when asked to contribute for 162 games. As he trends closer to that number however, expect the moonshots to skyrocket.
 
Max Kepler arrives with an .800 OPS
 
Call it a breakout, but don't call it a breakthrough. The talent has been there for Max Kepler, and it's time he puts it all together. While he's scuffled at times against lefties even dating back to the minors, 2017 was an abysmal showing. Kepler shouldn't be relegated to a platoon player, but everything needs to continue developing for that idea to be pushed aside. Over the last two years, Kepler's .734 and .737 OPS has shown little growth, but the .947 OPS across 112 Double-A games prior to his promotion in 2015 can't be ignored. Kepler has the potential to be a Christian Yelich type player, which is a strong combination of power and average. At 25 years-old, and two full major league seasons under his belt, the time is now.
 
Jose Berrios goes sub 3.50 ERA but over 9.0 K/9
 
Gaining on 50 big league starts, Jose Berrios has yet to show what the best version of himself looks like. As a 23 year-old a season ago, he posted a 3.89 ERA along with an 8.6 K/9 and a 3.84 FIP. Those numbers are already impressive, but there was still command issues that reared their head, and a couple of clunkers that raised the overall water level. Another offseason of refinement, and his first big league season from the get go, should boost Berrios into another level. He'll end up taking over the title as the Twins ace this season, and seeing him post some of the best numbers since Francisco Liriano or Johan Santana should absolutely be the expectation.
 
Stephen Gonsalves arrives, and sticks
 
This offseason, Thad Levine has commented that the goal with both Gonsalves and Fernando Romero is for them not to yo-yo. The organization doesn't want either pitcher coming up to make spot starts, or see promotions and demotions in less than ideal succession. While there's a lot to like with Adalberto Mejia getting an extended leash this year, the back portion of the Twins rotation still leaves plenty to be desired. Phil Hughes' contract affords him some time, but the impressive lefty has been knocking on the door for some time. Gonsalves probably isn't getting his shot early (unless the door opens on its own), but I expect him to pitch his way up by late summer. Although he may not have ace potential, his stuff profiles with an ability to be a consistently reliable arm every fifth day for some time to come.
 
Whether enjoying Valentine's Day or not, there's more than a handful of things to love about the 2018 Minnesota Twins, and baseball officially being back is chief among them.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

It's back, baseball is finally back. On February 13 the Minnesota Twins pitchers and catchers officially report to Fort Myers for Spring Training, and the club will hold it's first workout on Valentine's Day. With position players largely following them, and expected to arrive en masse shortly, it's time to take a look at a few storylines worth monitoring over the exhibition slate.
 
Coming off of a Postseason berth, and a Wild Card appearance, Paul Molito's squad is looking for an opportunity to take the next step. With the young core another year older, they should be expected to carry an even larger part of the load. While results can be scrutinized and picked apart in Grapefruit League action, it's what takes place beyond the box score that's generally the most telling. Those scenarios are what highlight the early slate, and that's what we'll take a look at below:
 
Does Kennys Vargas survive the roster crunch?
 
Currently slotted in as the backup first basemen and rotational bench bat, Vargas is out of options for the Minnesota Twins. The power stroke is very real for Vargas, but he's fallen a bit short when putting it all together. After an .833 OPS across 47 sporadic games in 2016, Vargas dipped back to a .758 OPS across 78 sporadic outings in 2017. In 2018, it's do or die time, but it may already be too late.
 
You have to go back to 2015 to find what I think may be a turning point in Vargas' production. After making the roster out of the gate, Vargas slumped mightily through April. In 12 games from May 1-17 though, he put forth a .956 OPS and was among Minnesota's hottest hitters. With just two homers through that time period however, Terry Ryan set him back to Triple-A searching for power. Since that point, Vargas has seemed to settle in, and his opportunities have been limited at best. In a reserve role, his bat has to be consistently ready to go, and the glove needs work. Right now, the Twins probably don't have anyone ready to come in and take his job, but it's hardly a given that they don't find a suitor by the end of March.
 
Grossman, Granite, or your best guess?
 
Looking at how the 25 man is shaping up from a 1,000 foot view right now, it appears Minnesota will carry just four true outfielders. With Robbie Grossman being extended a new contract for 2018, he's the front runner for the designated hitter and rotational outfield role. While his performance wasn't abysmal in the grass a season ago, 2016 could rear it's head at any moment. There's no doubt that the position is Grossman's to lose, but the emergence of other names is a real possibility.
 
On the 40 man roster, only Zack Granite is on the outside looking in among the outfield group. His .611 OPS in his first 40 MLB games leaves plenty to be desired, but should also be expected to rise. At the minor league level, Granite was an average hitter, and also an on-base asset. Postin a .347 OBP at Double-A, and a .392 OBP last season at Triple-A, his speed was allowed to be unleashed on the basepaths. Grossman has more pop than Granite does, but expecting Zack to contribute at a similar OBP level is hardly a reach. The dark horse in this competition is LaMonte Wade, and while he has yet to play above Double-A, he could make a big leap sooner rather than later.
 
Rotation, staff, and the Alston advantage.
 
At this moment, the Twins have yet to address their most glaring need of the offseason, a starting pitcher. By the time the team breaks from Fort Myers, I expect that scenario to have been handled. The Twins will be rolling with Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, Adalberto Mejia, an acquisition, and a question mark when the regular season opens. The 5th spot in the rotation is up for grabs, and while Phil Hughes' contract will afford him first crack, the emergence of Aaron Slegers, Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero, or a host of other names would be welcomed competition.
 
The bullpen has been shored up, and Addison Reed was one of the best gets of the offseason across the entire landscape of the league. New pitching coach Garvin Alston will begin to put his philosophies on display both in game and off the field of play. Watching the bullpen take shape, as well as its usage and construction will be worth monitoring. As the Twins seek more strikeouts, and a pitching staff that climbs the league ladder, it will be extremely important for Alston to make a more significant mark than his predecessor.
 
Homegrown gems making their mark.
 
Each year, there seems to be a few players that come in without a big league job, that end up leaving a lasting impression. Looking at the group of 13 non-roster invitees for 2018, there's a trio of homegrown prospects that have me intrigued.
 
Starting on the mound, you have to look at reliever Jake Reed. The hard thrower was left unprotected and went undrafted in the Rule 5 draft. He has the makings of a strikeout reliever with strong velocity, and an ability to kick the door in to the highest level. He got just 4.0 IP during spring training last year allowing four runs on six hits with a 3/2 K/BB ratio. His season also started with an injury occurred during the last game in Fort Myers. A strong showing could put him right back on the radar for an early season promotion.
 
In the infield, you look no further than former 1st round pick Nick Gordon. Heavily scrutinized as a shortstop, Gordon has yet to be pushed over to second base. He'll get his first real big league test in March this year, and should spend the majority of the season at Triple-A. After a hot start at Double-A, his season took a dive down the stretch and he posted a .749 OPS when things were said and done. How he handles big league pitching this spring, as well as what he shoes with the glove, could go a long ways to give us an idea of what and how he'll contribute for the Twins.
 
Wrapping up the group is a guy behind the plate that deserves more attention, Brian Navarreto. While the bat has lagged significantly for the 2013 6th round pick, he's been great as a defender. Across 127 stolen base attempts in his 290 games behind the dish in the minors, he's thrown out a ridiculous 50% of runners. Regarded as a strong receiver and a trustworthy game manager, Navrreto will get a chance to showcase his worth as a potential big league backup down the road.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

It's back, baseball is finally back. On February 13 the Minnesota Twins pitchers and catchers officially report to Fort Myers for Spring Training, and the club will hold it's first workout on Valentine's Day. With position players largely following them, and expected to arrive en masse shortly, it's time to take a look at a few storylines worth monitoring over the exhibition slate.
 
Coming off of a Postseason berth, and a Wild Card appearance, Paul Molito's squad is looking for an opportunity to take the next step. With the young core another year older, they should be expected to carry an even larger part of the load. While results can be scrutinized and picked apart in Grapefruit League action, it's what takes place beyond the box score that's generally the most telling. Those scenarios are what highlight the early slate, and that's what we'll take a look at below:
 
Does Kennys Vargas survive the roster crunch?
 
Currently slotted in as the backup first basemen and rotational bench bat, Vargas is out of options for the Minnesota Twins. The power stroke is very real for Vargas, but he's fallen a bit short when putting it all together. After an .833 OPS across 47 sporadic games in 2016, Vargas dipped back to a .758 OPS across 78 sporadic outings in 2017. In 2018, it's do or die time, but it may already be too late.
 
You have to go back to 2015 to find what I think may be a turning point in Vargas' production. After making the roster out of the gate, Vargas slumped mightily through April. In 12 games from May 1-17 though, he put forth a .956 OPS and was among Minnesota's hottest hitters. With just two homers through that time period however, Terry Ryan set him back to Triple-A searching for power. Since that point, Vargas has seemed to settle in, and his opportunities have been limited at best. In a reserve role, his bat has to be consistently ready to go, and the glove needs work. Right now, the Twins probably don't have anyone ready to come in and take his job, but it's hardly a given that they don't find a suitor by the end of March.
 
Grossman, Granite, or your best guess?
 
Looking at how the 25 man is shaping up from a 1,000 foot view right now, it appears Minnesota will carry just four true outfielders. With Robbie Grossman being extended a new contract for 2018, he's the front runner for the designated hitter and rotational outfield role. While his performance wasn't abysmal in the grass a season ago, 2016 could rear it's head at any moment. There's no doubt that the position is Grossman's to lose, but the emergence of other names is a real possibility.
 
On the 40 man roster, only Zack Granite is on the outside looking in among the outfield group. His .611 OPS in his first 40 MLB games leaves plenty to be desired, but should also be expected to rise. At the minor league level, Granite was an average hitter, and also an on-base asset. Postin a .347 OBP at Double-A, and a .392 OBP last season at Triple-A, his speed was allowed to be unleashed on the basepaths. Grossman has more pop than Granite does, but expecting Zack to contribute at a similar OBP level is hardly a reach. The dark horse in this competition is LaMonte Wade, and while he has yet to play above Double-A, he could make a big leap sooner rather than later.
 
Rotation, staff, and the Alston advantage.
 
At this moment, the Twins have yet to address their most glaring need of the offseason, a starting pitcher. By the time the team breaks from Fort Myers, I expect that scenario to have been handled. The Twins will be rolling with Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, Adalberto Mejia, an acquisition, and a question mark when the regular season opens. The 5th spot in the rotation is up for grabs, and while Phil Hughes' contract will afford him first crack, the emergence of Aaron Slegers, Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero, or a host of other names would be welcomed competition.
 
The bullpen has been shored up, and Addison Reed was one of the best gets of the offseason across the entire landscape of the league. New pitching coach Garvin Alston will begin to put his philosophies on display both in game and off the field of play. Watching the bullpen take shape, as well as its usage and construction will be worth monitoring. As the Twins seek more strikeouts, and a pitching staff that climbs the league ladder, it will be extremely important for Alston to make a more significant mark than his predecessor.
 
Homegrown gems making their mark.
 
Each year, there seems to be a few players that come in without a big league job, that end up leaving a lasting impression. Looking at the group of 13 non-roster invitees for 2018, there's a trio of homegrown prospects that have me intrigued.
 
Starting on the mound, you have to look at reliever Jake Reed. The hard thrower was left unprotected and went undrafted in the Rule 5 draft. He has the makings of a strikeout reliever with strong velocity, and an ability to kick the door in to the highest level. He got just 4.0 IP during spring training last year allowing four runs on six hits with a 3/2 K/BB ratio. His season also started with an injury occurred during the last game in Fort Myers. A strong showing could put him right back on the radar for an early season promotion.
 
In the infield, you look no further than former 1st round pick Nick Gordon. Heavily scrutinized as a shortstop, Gordon has yet to be pushed over to second base. He'll get his first real big league test in March this year, and should spend the majority of the season at Triple-A. After a hot start at Double-A, his season took a dive down the stretch and he posted a .749 OPS when things were said and done. How he handles big league pitching this spring, as well as what he shoes with the glove, could go a long ways to give us an idea of what and how he'll contribute for the Twins.
 
Wrapping up the group is a guy behind the plate that deserves more attention, Brian Navarreto. While the bat has lagged significantly for the 2013 6th round pick, he's been great as a defender. Across 127 stolen base attempts in his 290 games behind the dish in the minors, he's thrown out a ridiculous 50% of runners. Regarded as a strong receiver and a trustworthy game manager, Navrreto will get a chance to showcase his worth as a potential big league backup down the road.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

With just a handful of days left until pitchers and catchers officially report to Fort Myers for Spring Training, Minnesota is nearing the end of its offseason. The main focus when it comes to additions was starting pitching, and due to the market, that remains the one area left unattended at this point. Whether before or after spring training officially kicks off I expect that to be dealt with. What remains to be seen is whether or not Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have interest in adding a bat to supplement their bench.
 
As things stand right now, the Twins appear to be alright opening the season with a bench of Robbie Grossman, Eduardo Escobar, Ehire Adrianza, Mitch Garver, and Kennys Vargas. Considering the possible (see: likely) suspension for Miguel Sano, Zack Granite could also find his way into this group out of the gate. Of the names above, it's Vargas that is more than likely the most on the bubble. Out of options, and having bounced between Triple-A and the big leagues a season ago, he's probably the first to go if space is needed.
 
Operating under the assumption that Vargas is the quintessential 25th man, the question revolves around whether or not he can be improved upon. From a construction standpoint, Vargas almost certainly needs to be replaced by a bat first player. Grossman figures to see regular time as the designated hitter, while Adrianza and Escobar have similar skillsets despite Eduardo toting the more capable bat. Garver is entrenched as the backup catcher, and should serve as a platoon option for starter Jason Castro. Bringing in another utility man means Minnesota relies solely on Grossman as the outfield option (which is currently the case), and the lack of a true bat could expose Robbie being heavily reliant on his on-base prowess.
 
In an ideal world the Twins greatest addition to the bench would be in the form of a right-handed hitting outfielder. Offering the potential to pair with Max Kepler (should his facing left-handed pitching continue to be a detriment) as well as play in rotation across the corner spots makes a lot of sense. Between Adrianza, Escobar, and Garver, each of the infield positions has a true and capable backup. After posting a -21 DRS in 630+ innings in the outfield during 2016, Grossman shored things up somewhat totaling a -3 DRS mark across 350+ innings a year ago. There's still plenty to be desired with the glove there, but he showed that he can be less of a liability if need be.
 
Among the options, former Twins center fielder Carlos Gomez has an intriguing profile. He would give the club positional flexibility across all three positions, and posted a .340 OBP in 2017 with some pop. At 32 the hope would be that he could be had on a short-term deal, and that could be of intrigue to Minnesota. Another more elder option comes in the form of Jose Bautista. This would be a relative leap of faith given his age (37) and 2017 season. Posting a .674 OPS there's reason to believe that he's simply cooked. Bautista is just one year removed from an .800+ OPS however, and if you could get him on a minor-league deal or something incentive-laden there would be a level of intrigue.
 
If you want to go more of an unconventional route, a versatile super-utility type could be a fit. Noted as a possible fit by Zone Coverage's Brandon Warne on Twitter, former Minnesota shortstop Eduardo Nunez has some appeal. Nunez played 20 games in the outfield a season ago for San Francisco, and he got some time out there for the Twins in his first stint with the club. His career -3 DRS across 322 OF innings slots in line with 2017 Grossman, and I'm not a big fan of non-traditional outfielders playing the position. That said, Nunez's .801 OPS from 2017 is more than enticing. He's posted a .778 OPS over the last two seasons while playing in at least 110 games during each. It seems given semi-regular playing time, he can be an offensive asset as well.
 
At the end of the day Kennys Vargas should probably be given a final shot. His career .748 is far from abysmal, and the .833 OPS in 47 games during the 2016 season was exciting. Vargas hasn't proven to be much of an OBP guy (just .311 for his career), and the 251/65 K/BB ratio is more than concerning. All of his eggs remain in the power basket, and if he's not taking free bases then he needs to be accumulating them in bunches. At 27 he's no longer a prospect, and the Twins likely have a significant amount of information to feel comfortable with their evaluation of him.
 
This seems like a no lose scenario, with a slight opportunity for a win. Vargas is hardly a red flag on the 25 man, and you could do much worse. What Minnesota could also do is look for some competition or even to supplant him completely, and in turn, raise the water level as a whole. There's a few more weeks for us to see how this all plays out, but it'll be a storyline worth watching this spring.
 
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With Aaron Judge following up his incredible rookie season by landing the cover of MLB The Show 18, the most limited edition has been dubbed "All Rise." If there's anything to glen from the gameplay release trailer that dropped today, it's that the team at Sony San Diego is going all out.
 
While much of the gameplay is hard to deduce from the trailer, it looks as crisp as we've become accustomed to. The more necessary tweaks include tagging animations, hitting analysis, and overall refinements to the experience. That being said, there was more than a few big bits of excitement from the trailer debut, and most of them center around the Diamond Dynasty game mode.
 
After having Ken Griffey Jr. act as the cover boy a season ago, and make his debut on the virtual diamond, a handful of former greats enter the fold for the year ahead. First and foremost, Babe Ruth becomes the headliner. With an epic teaser sequence including his called shot, Ruth being prominently featured in a game highlighting Judge made all too much sense. The Hall of Famer will be joined by the likes of Doc Ellis, Don Sutton, Pee Wee Reese, Lee Smith, Troy Percival, and Benito Santiago. With this just being the first bit of information put forth for the new iteration, we could have a few more legends yet to be unveiled.
 
On top of the additions to the card collecting game mode, the trailer also showed off the Judge's Chambers in Yankee Stadium. After including stadium specific areas such as King's Court in Seattle and The 7 Line in New York a season ago, it's nice to see the presentation get expanded upon. There was also a tease of an airplane scene that would likely coincide with the popular Road to the Show mode. After being turned into somewhat of an RPG style narrative a season ago, expanding on the created player journey to the big leagues is a nice touch.
 
The official release date of MLB The Show 18 remains March 27, although a preorder will get you the game a few days earlier. Expect plenty of live streams and content drops in the coming weeks to further highlight what's new in the upcoming version.
 
Also here at Off The Baggy, I intend to do a regular hit on who to monitor for investment purposes in The Show 18 this season. Combining the allure of virtual baseball along with real life statistics in order to profit in the game is something that was great fun a year ago. Not looking to be a content creator, a regular blog post detailing where to keep your eye both on the diamond and in the game seems like a great crossover. See you all in The Show.
 
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Entering the 2018 Major League Baseball season, Brian Dozier looks to his future and sees free agency looming. Despite allowing the Minnesota Twins to buy out his arbitration years in a four-year, $20 million deal, the hometown squad couldn't lock him in past free agency. Now, as the two sides ponder an extension, it's worth wondering how the year ahead could go for one of baseball's best players.
 
Dating back to 2014, only Jose Altuve has been at the position (in terms of fWAR) than the Twins two-bagger. In that time, Dozier has become an All Star, Home Run Derby participant, Gold Glove winner, and MVP vote getter. He began as an aging and failed shortstop, and revolutionized himself into a premium player at a position generally void of them across the sport.
 
Despite hitting 42 long balls in 2016, Dozier's emergence as an offensive threat has been anything but a slow burn. He's been on a relative tear for the past four seasons. With a slash line of .254/.338/.476 and 127 homers since 2014, there's no denying that the Mississippi native could be inserted into the heart of many lineups across the sport.
 
Looking at the year ahead and beyond, it's worth wondering what to expect from Brian, and what that tells us about any more potentially on the table. First and foremost, it's worth mentioning that there seems to be a heightened level of performance in the final year of deals. Both Dozier and the Twins could strike a match before spring training ends, and while there's not an exact science to it, nothing on the table could prove as motivation to reach new heights.
 
In somewhat of an interesting case, Dozier is a late bloomer. He didn't reach the big leagues until 25, and he didn't become a significant cog until his age 27 season in 2014. He's played at least 152 games each of the past four years, and while there's been slumps tied loosely to overuse, his availability to the Twins has been remarkable.
Recent memory serves Dozier even more favorably. Over the past two seasons, Dozier has posted back to back .800+ OPS numbers, and compiled a .269/.349/.522 slash line. His 131 OPS+ jumps off the page, and his 76 homers are an astounding number given the position he plays. While the Gold Glove may be more reflective of his offensive prowess, it's hard to argue Brian Dozier as anything but the best second basemen not named Jose Altuve at the current juncture.
 
That being said, both Dozier and the Twins aren't too concerned with what has taken place. Although it's previous production that Brian will tie his argument for future dollars to, it's the projections going forward that will open the wallets of any would be suitors. Now on the wrong side of 30 years old, Dozier's case is somewhat of an anomaly. He's been a beacon of health throughout his time in the big leagues, and as a senior sign, compiled only 365 games in the minors. While he's aging, there's an argument to be made that there could be a decent amount of tread left on the tires.
 
Trying to glean insight from ZiPS as well Marcell projection systems, Dozier has some 2018 numbers to pick at. ZiPS sees a .257/.341/.482 slash with 31 homers, while Marcell comes in with a .259/.337/.494 slash and also 31 homers. Both the OPS numbers fall below the .856 mark posted in 2017, but remain above the .800 level that would put him in star company. After following up the 42 Home run output with a tally of 34 a year ago, the projection systems agreeing on 31 would be almost exactly in line with his four-year average.
 
What I think we can expect from Brian Dozier in 2018 is something along the lines of what he's established as norms. The power should continue to be there, even despite an expected level of regression a season ago. Reaching the 30 plateau should again be more than doable, and doing so with an .800+ OPS is hardly a longshot. Among the biggest areas of growth in recent seasons for Dozier has been his ability to get on base. Although he strikes out too much for a leadoff hitter, the ability to draw walks has grown, and his .359 OBP of 2017 was a shining bright spot. Dropping down to something like a .345 OBP wouldn't be unexpected, but it would hardly be a significant detractor either.
 
It's understandably hard to believe in immeasurable principles, but should Dozier enter the season in a "contract year," then I think we'd be in for a slight uptick across the board. Regardless, any level of regression should be muted as it appears the late-bloomer is in the heart of his prime. A long term deal may not benefit the signing team well as an elder free agent can crash fast, but Minnesota has to feel good about getting Dozier's best for as long as they have.
 
If we've learned anything over the past two or three seasons with Dozier, it's not to bet against him. While he's transformed himself into a pull hitter while generating significant power, he's also adapted to opposing pitchers. Up and in balls still end up over the fence, but he's been able to do far more than the approach had initially suggested may be possible. An overview of the 2018 Twins lineup should again be described as a run producer, but there's little mystery to the fact that Brian Dozier will be in the heart of that reality.
 
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As the 2018 Major League Baseball seasons draws ever more near, the Minnesota Twins are looking to replicate a season that saw its end in the postseason. While they'd prefer to avoid the one-game playoff in the Wild Card game, that would mean overtaking the Cleveland Indians in the AL Central. With the division looking like a two horse race, it's worth checking in on the possibility of that outcome.
 
In observing the Indians from afar, comparing them to the Twins may be best done by positional group. If we break down the active roster into groups consisting of starters, relievers, infielders, outfielders, and bench, we should have a relatively clear five-subject analysis to look at. With those parameters set out in front of us, here's how the cream of the AL Central crop stacks up.
 
Starters: Indians
 
Even if the Twins sign Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta, the Minnesota rotation will fall behind that of Cleveland. While a Darvish, Jose Berrios, and Ervin Santana top three would rival Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Trevor Bauer, it's the back end that has questions. For Paul Molitor, it's safe to assume a new name is going to enter the bunch, that means there will be just two spots left to fill out the rotation. Right now, it appears that those jobs will be owned by Kyle Gibson and Phil Hughes out of the gate.
 
Terry Francona has the luxury of going to Danny Salazar as his fourth, and Mike Clevinger as his fifth. Salazar has as much upside as anyone, and his stuff gets big league batters out at an alarming rate (when he keeps it in the zone). Minnesota has the opportunity to raise the water level as 2018 draws on, and if someone like Stephen Gonsalves, Zack Littell, Fernando Romero, or a host of other arms forces out Gibson or Hughes, it would likely be for the better long term.
 
A year or two ago, the divide between the Twins and Indians on the mound was substantial. Given Kluber's Cy Young status, and the depth of the group overall, they still tout an impressive five. All things considered, Minnesota has closed the gap measurably, and that will continue to be an area of focus for the immediate future.
 
Relievers: Indians
 
Where the Twins were more top-heavy as opposed to having depth in the rotation, the two squads may be the opposite in the pen. Bryan Shaw is gone in Cleveland, and the innings eater won't be there for Francona to call on in 2018. They still boast an incredible one-two punch in Cody Allen and Andrew Miller however, and both could be named among the best in the bullpen across all of baseball. Behind that duo though, there's a relative falloff, and that's where Minnesota's opportunity comes in.
 
The trio of signings Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have made in relief this winter can be categorized as nothing short of a grand slam. Fernando Rodney has his warts, but he's still effective in the late-innings, with upper 90's stuff. Zach Duke is a great gamble even further removed from Tommy John surgery, and Addison Reed is among that "best relievers in Baseball" category. Adding that group to holdovers like Trevor Hildenberger and Taylor Rogers is a huge plus for Paul Molitor's club.
 
If Minnesota wants to nab this category, and they're very close to doing so, Ryan Pressly and Tyler Duffey need to be at their best. Pressly is an impact arm that can shoulder high leverage when he's right, while Duffey has worked late innings prior to his pro career and has a nice two pitch mix that profiles well in relief.
 
Infielders: Indians
 
This category is absolutely in Cleveland's favor, but the Twins aren't as distant as it may seem. Francisco Lindor is one of the best young players in the game, and whether or not his game ends up being power or average, he's going to hit. Jose Ramirez is the best star that doesn't get enough attention, and Yonder Alonso is coming off a breakout 2017. Losing Carlos Santana will hurt this group, and Jason Kipnis' best days are maybe behind him. As a whole though, this is a strong outfit.
 
It's obvious that Brian Dozier is the cornerstone of Minnesota's infield. Behind Jose Altuve, he is probably the second best player at the position. Jorge Polanco showed his bat will play down the stretch a season ago, and Miguel Sano is going to hit a good amount of longballs for plenty of years to come. If Joe Mauer continues to play elite defense, his value will fail to sag any time soon as well.
 
Behind the dish, I'd prefer Jason Castro and Mitch Garver over Roberto Perez and Yan Gomes, but I could be a bit bullish on what I expect from Garver in 2018.
 
Regardless of the total collection, these two infields are loaded with talent, and the Indians has a bit more sustainability and depth, the Twins aren't too far behind. Both of these groups can hit, and the fielding acumen is pretty close as well. As you can see becoming a trend, the gap is closing.
 
Outfielders: Twins
 
There's little argument to be made against Byron Buxton being the best outfielder in baseball. He's the game's best defender, and plays the premium position of the three spots. His speed and arm are both elite, while he continues to improve on route running. Should his bat again be ready to unleash the fury James Rowson helped to tease us with for the better part of 2017, Minnesota has an MVP candidate on its hands.
 
Both Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler have holes in their game, and despite his strong 2017, it's Rosario I'm more uncertain about. The strong arm is there, and he may profile better in right, but route efficienty has been somewhat of a question. Tightening up around the plate will benefit him, but he's always going to be a free-swinger. Kepler has the look of a Christian Yelich type, and that ceiling remains. If he's able to harness that ability in 2018, Minnesota will be in a great spot.
 
For the Indians, Bradley Zimmer has graduated from prospect status and is now expected to be a regular. Defense is an definite tool of his, but the bat lagged behind in his debut. Michael Brantley is an All Star, but his body is fighting against him, and Lonnie Chisenhall is nothing more than a rotational type at this point in his career. The group has plenty to offer, and doesn't have glaring weaknesses, but there's hardly a shining strength either.
 
Bench: Indians
 
Including the designated hitter into this equation, Cleveland's upper hand is significantly loaded from the top. Edwin Encarnacion is a destroyer of baseballs, and should be expected to continue with those contributions in the season ahead. Behind him however, there's a significant (and expected) drop off. Tyler Naquin is a nice rotational outfielder, and Giovanny Urshela seems to get plenty of use over the course of a season.
 
Unlike the Indians, Minnesota doesn't have a true DH (at least until it becomes Miguel Sano's assumed role). Robbie Grossman has been an invaluable add, and is an OBP machine, but he's slumped at times and is limited defensively. Eduardo Escobar is a very good utility man, and Ehire Adrianza gives the Twins a nice glove first player.
 
Looking at reserves, you're picking at straws to a certain extent. If you have a one-dimensional player though, allowing that to be a guy that trots the bases with a parrot on his arm is hardly a bad position to be in. If everything else gets taken care of for Minnesota this offseason, a bat addition would be nice, but it's not coming in the form of an impact player.
 
Overall, it's apparent the Twins are still playing second fiddle to the Cleveland Indians. What's also apparent is that the gap between the two clubs is no longer wide. With pitching being one of the greatest differences, Minnesota has drawn closer in relief. Over the course of a season series, or even the full 162 game slate, I'd be far from shocked to see these two clubs flip flop.
 
In the Twins last two competitive seasons (2015 & 2017), they went 12-7 and 7-12 against Falvey's former organization respectively. The divide probably isn't worthy of being nearly a 2:1 or 1:2 scenario, but that's the volatility that any one season brings. Right now, Cleveland is still the AL Central favorites, but Minnesota is making a run to change that, and the competition in the American League could push them to realizing a division crown as their best path to the postseason.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

As the 2018 Major League Baseball seasons draws ever more near, the Minnesota Twins are looking to replicate a season that saw its end in the postseason. While they'd prefer to avoid the one-game playoff in the Wild Card game, that would mean overtaking the Cleveland Indians in the AL Central. With the division looking like a two horse race, it's worth checking in on the possibility of that outcome.
 
In observing the Indians from afar, comparing them to the Twins may be best done by positional group. If we break down the active roster into groups consisting of starters, relievers, infielders, outfielders, and bench, we should have a relatively clear five-subject analysis to look at. With those parameters set out in front of us, here's how the cream of the AL Central crop stacks up.
 
Starters: Indians
 
Even if the Twins sign Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta, the Minnesota rotation will fall behind that of Cleveland. While a Darvish, Jose Berrios, and Ervin Santana top three would rival Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Trevor Bauer, it's the back end that has questions. For Paul Molitor, it's safe to assume a new name is going to enter the bunch, that means there will be just two spots left to fill out the rotation. Right now, it appears that those jobs will be owned by Kyle Gibson and Phil Hughes out of the gate.
 
Terry Francona has the luxury of going to Danny Salazar as his fourth, and Mike Clevinger as his fifth. Salazar has as much upside as anyone, and his stuff gets big league batters out at an alarming rate (when he keeps it in the zone). Minnesota has the opportunity to raise the water level as 2018 draws on, and if someone like Stephen Gonsalves, Zack Littell, Fernando Romero, or a host of other arms forces out Gibson or Hughes, it would likely be for the better long term.
 
A year or two ago, the divide between the Twins and Indians on the mound was substantial. Given Kluber's Cy Young status, and the depth of the group overall, they still tout an impressive five. All things considered, Minnesota has closed the gap measurably, and that will continue to be an area of focus for the immediate future.
 
Relievers: Indians
 
Where the Twins were more top-heavy as opposed to having depth in the rotation, the two squads may be the opposite in the pen. Bryan Shaw is gone in Cleveland, and the innings eater won't be there for Francona to call on in 2018. They still boast an incredible one-two punch in Cody Allen and Andrew Miller however, and both could be named among the best in the bullpen across all of baseball. Behind that duo though, there's a relative falloff, and that's where Minnesota's opportunity comes in.
 
The trio of signings Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have made in relief this winter can be categorized as nothing short of a grand slam. Fernando Rodney has his warts, but he's still effective in the late-innings, with upper 90's stuff. Zach Duke is a great gamble even further removed from Tommy John surgery, and Addison Reed is among that "best relievers in Baseball" category. Adding that group to holdovers like Trevor Hildenberger and Taylor Rogers is a huge plus for Paul Molitor's club.
 
If Minnesota wants to nab this category, and they're very close to doing so, Ryan Pressly and Tyler Duffey need to be at their best. Pressly is an impact arm that can shoulder high leverage when he's right, while Duffey has worked late innings prior to his pro career and has a nice two pitch mix that profiles well in relief.
 
Infielders: Indians
 
This category is absolutely in Cleveland's favor, but the Twins aren't as distant as it may seem. Francisco Lindor is one of the best young players in the game, and whether or not his game ends up being power or average, he's going to hit. Jose Ramirez is the best star that doesn't get enough attention, and Yonder Alonso is coming off a breakout 2017. Losing Carlos Santana will hurt this group, and Jason Kipnis' best days are maybe behind him. As a whole though, this is a strong outfit.
 
It's obvious that Brian Dozier is the cornerstone of Minnesota's infield. Behind Jose Altuve, he is probably the second best player at the position. Jorge Polanco showed his bat will play down the stretch a season ago, and Miguel Sano is going to hit a good amount of longballs for plenty of years to come. If Joe Mauer continues to play elite defense, his value will fail to sag any time soon as well.
 
Behind the dish, I'd prefer Jason Castro and Mitch Garver over Roberto Perez and Yan Gomes, but I could be a bit bullish on what I expect from Garver in 2018.
 
Regardless of the total collection, these two infields are loaded with talent, and the Indians has a bit more sustainability and depth, the Twins aren't too far behind. Both of these groups can hit, and the fielding acumen is pretty close as well. As you can see becoming a trend, the gap is closing.
 
Outfielders: Twins
 
There's little argument to be made against Byron Buxton being the best outfielder in baseball. He's the game's best defender, and plays the premium position of the three spots. His speed and arm are both elite, while he continues to improve on route running. Should his bat again be ready to unleash the fury James Rowson helped to tease us with for the better part of 2017, Minnesota has an MVP candidate on its hands.
 
Both Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler have holes in their game, and despite his strong 2017, it's Rosario I'm more uncertain about. The strong arm is there, and he may profile better in right, but route efficienty has been somewhat of a question. Tightening up around the plate will benefit him, but he's always going to be a free-swinger. Kepler has the look of a Christian Yelich type, and that ceiling remains. If he's able to harness that ability in 2018, Minnesota will be in a great spot.
 
For the Indians, Bradley Zimmer has graduated from prospect status and is now expected to be a regular. Defense is an definite tool of his, but the bat lagged behind in his debut. Michael Brantley is an All Star, but his body is fighting against him, and Lonnie Chisenhall is nothing more than a rotational type at this point in his career. The group has plenty to offer, and doesn't have glaring weaknesses, but there's hardly a shining strength either.
 
Bench: Indians
 
Including the designated hitter into this equation, Cleveland's upper hand is significantly loaded from the top. Edwin Encarnacion is a destroyer of baseballs, and should be expected to continue with those contributions in the season ahead. Behind him however, there's a significant (and expected) drop off. Tyler Naquin is a nice rotational outfielder, and Giovanny Urshela seems to get plenty of use over the course of a season.
 
Unlike the Indians, Minnesota doesn't have a true DH (at least until it becomes Miguel Sano's assumed role). Robbie Grossman has been an invaluable add, and is an OBP machine, but he's slumped at times and is limited defensively. Eduardo Escobar is a very good utility man, and Ehire Adrianza gives the Twins a nice glove first player.
 
Looking at reserves, you're picking at straws to a certain extent. If you have a one-dimensional player though, allowing that to be a guy that trots the bases with a parrot on his arm is hardly a bad position to be in. If everything else gets taken care of for Minnesota this offseason, a bat addition would be nice, but it's not coming in the form of an impact player.
 
Overall, it's apparent the Twins are still playing second fiddle to the Cleveland Indians. What's also apparent is that the gap between the two clubs is no longer wide. With pitching being one of the greatest differences, Minnesota has drawn closer in relief. Over the course of a season series, or even the full 162 game slate, I'd be far from shocked to see these two clubs flip flop.
 
In the Twins last two competitive seasons (2015 & 2017), they went 12-7 and 7-12 against Falvey's former organization respectively. The divide probably isn't worthy of being nearly a 2:1 or 1:2 scenario, but that's the volatility that any one season brings. Right now, Cleveland is still the AL Central favorites, but Minnesota is making a run to change that, and the competition in the American League could push them to realizing a division crown as their best path to the postseason.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

As spring training looms, Paul Molitor and the Minnesota Twins will soon have to make some tough decisions. While the 25 man roster as a whole must be settled upon, the Twins will need to decide how they'll round out the rotation. It's obvious another Jose Berrios or Ervin Santana type impact arm is needed, but on the back end, the group has plenty of suitors. For two players though, the future is all but certain.
 
First, there's 31 year-old Phil Hughes. Still owed $26.4 million through 2019, the premature extension Terry Ryan handed out continues to be the fit that keeps on giving. Hughes gave Minnesota just 53.2 IP a season ago, and that was in follow up to a 2016 that saw him turn in just 59.0 IP. Despite being a true Cy Young candidate in 2014, his first year with Minnesota, it's been a deep dive off a cliff since.
 
The past two seasons, Hughes has dealt with a myriad of injuries. From breaking a bone in his leg, to undergoing Thoracic Outlet Surgery, health has not been something he can lay claim to. It's the TOS procedure that remains relatively difficult to come back from, and the list of those who've successfully recovered is not a long one (Matt Harvey of the Mets finds himself on the wrong side of the discussion as well). After turning in a 5.87 ERA and allowing opposing hitters a .907 OPS off of him, Hughes was shut down and again went searching for answers.
 
On August 10, Hughes underwent Thoracic Outlet Syndrome revision surgery, in hopes it would help set him up for a cleaner bill of health in the year ahead. Now fully healed, the question turns to what he can give Minnesota. The past two seasons, he's allowed hard contact roughly 40% of the time. When he was going well in 2014, that number was 32%, and it's just 38.9% over the course of his career. Maybe most alarming however is the significant dip in velocity. After throwing his fastball at 93 mph from 2009-2014, he's lost at least 3 mph over the past two seasons. Such a significant decrease can obviously cause issues, and could end up contributing to a career ending decline.
 
If he's healthy, the Twins would be getting a command artist back in the fold. Hughes at his best is a plenty serviceable back end option, and would be more than capable of being entrusted to take the ball every 5th day. Although the upside isn't there, and he's probably past his prime, a staff could do much worse than a solid Phil Hughes. How long of a leash he has to prove that's where he's at, or if there is truly a clean bill of health all remain fair questions. With north of $20 million left on his deal, it's hard to see the Twins cutting bait, but I can't imagine the current structure allowing for ineffectiveness either.
 
On the opposite end of the return spectrum is one-time top prospect Trevor May. Making his return from Tommy John surgery, May likely won't be ready on Opening Day, but also shouldn't be far off. Prior to the injury, it appeared May was going to be given every opportunity to earn a spot in the starting rotation. Despite being used solely as a reliever in 2016, the desire to get more use out of him seemed apparent.
 
As a reliever, May posted an elite 12.7 K/9 and a manageable 3.6 BB/9. His 1.5 HR/9 led to an inflated ERA, but the 3.80 FIP suggests there was quality beyond the surface. While May in the bullpen could truly be an asset to Minnesota, there's also the question as to whether or not his back could put up with the workload. Never working solely as a reliever, injuries flared as he was called upon to pitch more often, and ready himself at a significantly quicker pace.
 
Prior to his injury, May appeared to be more than a soft tossing arm deployed out of the Twins stable. As a starter, he averaged right around 94 mph on his fastball, and bumped that up to 95 mph coming out of the pen. While not triple digits, sustained velocity in the mid 90's is something that Minnesota would no doubt welcome. It's fair to wonder whether or not the surgery will sap some of the electricity, but track records for Tommy John patients have greatly improved over time.
 
In both cases, Minnesota will have some difficult decisions to make. There's a much better case to be made for May being inserted into the rotation if healthy. His long term value remains of benefit to the club, and at 28, his prime still should be in front of him. Outside of monetary obligations it's hard to say the same for Hughes. Unless he's a lights out 2014 version of himself, there's plenty of reason for skepticism when it comes to future contributions.
 
At any rate, the Twins have two starters locked in, and a third (Kyle Gibson) pretty close to being written in ink as well. The necessary addition of a top level arm remains a must, but how the 5th and final spot shakes out is anyones guess. Both Hughes and May will be in the conversation, but how will the production from both speak?
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

As spring training looms, Paul Molitor and the Minnesota Twins will soon have to make some tough decisions. While the 25 man roster as a whole must be settled upon, the Twins will need to decide how they'll round out the rotation. It's obvious another Jose Berrios or Ervin Santana type impact arm is needed, but on the back end, the group has plenty of suitors. For two players though, the future is all but certain.
 
First, there's 31 year-old Phil Hughes. Still owed $26.4 million through 2019, the premature extension Terry Ryan handed out continues to be the fit that keeps on giving. Hughes gave Minnesota just 53.2 IP a season ago, and that was in follow up to a 2016 that saw him turn in just 59.0 IP. Despite being a true Cy Young candidate in 2014, his first year with Minnesota, it's been a deep dive off a cliff since.
 
The past two seasons, Hughes has dealt with a myriad of injuries. From breaking a bone in his leg, to undergoing Thoracic Outlet Surgery, health has not been something he can lay claim to. It's the TOS procedure that remains relatively difficult to come back from, and the list of those who've successfully recovered is not a long one (Matt Harvey of the Mets finds himself on the wrong side of the discussion as well). After turning in a 5.87 ERA and allowing opposing hitters a .907 OPS off of him, Hughes was shut down and again went searching for answers.
 
On August 10, Hughes underwent Thoracic Outlet Syndrome revision surgery, in hopes it would help set him up for a cleaner bill of health in the year ahead. Now fully healed, the question turns to what he can give Minnesota. The past two seasons, he's allowed hard contact roughly 40% of the time. When he was going well in 2014, that number was 32%, and it's just 38.9% over the course of his career. Maybe most alarming however is the significant dip in velocity. After throwing his fastball at 93 mph from 2009-2014, he's lost at least 3 mph over the past two seasons. Such a significant decrease can obviously cause issues, and could end up contributing to a career ending decline.
 
If he's healthy, the Twins would be getting a command artist back in the fold. Hughes at his best is a plenty serviceable back end option, and would be more than capable of being entrusted to take the ball every 5th day. Although the upside isn't there, and he's probably past his prime, a staff could do much worse than a solid Phil Hughes. How long of a leash he has to prove that's where he's at, or if there is truly a clean bill of health all remain fair questions. With north of $20 million left on his deal, it's hard to see the Twins cutting bait, but I can't imagine the current structure allowing for ineffectiveness either.
 
On the opposite end of the return spectrum is one-time top prospect Trevor May. Making his return from Tommy John surgery, May likely won't be ready on Opening Day, but also shouldn't be far off. Prior to the injury, it appeared May was going to be given every opportunity to earn a spot in the starting rotation. Despite being used solely as a reliever in 2016, the desire to get more use out of him seemed apparent.
 
As a reliever, May posted an elite 12.7 K/9 and a manageable 3.6 BB/9. His 1.5 HR/9 led to an inflated ERA, but the 3.80 FIP suggests there was quality beyond the surface. While May in the bullpen could truly be an asset to Minnesota, there's also the question as to whether or not his back could put up with the workload. Never working solely as a reliever, injuries flared as he was called upon to pitch more often, and ready himself at a significantly quicker pace.
 
Prior to his injury, May appeared to be more than a soft tossing arm deployed out of the Twins stable. As a starter, he averaged right around 94 mph on his fastball, and bumped that up to 95 mph coming out of the pen. While not triple digits, sustained velocity in the mid 90's is something that Minnesota would no doubt welcome. It's fair to wonder whether or not the surgery will sap some of the electricity, but track records for Tommy John patients have greatly improved over time.
 
In both cases, Minnesota will have some difficult decisions to make. There's a much better case to be made for May being inserted into the rotation if healthy. His long term value remains of benefit to the club, and at 28, his prime still should be in front of him. Outside of monetary obligations it's hard to say the same for Hughes. Unless he's a lights out 2014 version of himself, there's plenty of reason for skepticism when it comes to future contributions.
 
At any rate, the Twins have two starters locked in, and a third (Kyle Gibson) pretty close to being written in ink as well. The necessary addition of a top level arm remains a must, but how the 5th and final spot shakes out is anyones guess. Both Hughes and May will be in the conversation, but how will the production from both speak?
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

As things stand, the Minnesota Twins have made two moves regarding their bullpen this offseason. In signing both Fernando Rodney and Zach Duke to one-year deals, they bring in proven veterans with skills in all the right places for the Twins. It seems Derek Falvey and Thad Levine sent a message in their relief acquisitions, and looking back to 2017, it is one that should be well received.
 
While teams have long since began venturing down the path of super bullpens, some of them go about it differently. At their peak, the Kansas City Royals seemed to do it more organically, while the Cleveland Indians moved some pieces around, and the current Colorado Rockies just threw money at everyone with a pulse. The idea that a start can be shortened through a strong bullpen is a good one, but it isn't a band-aid that can be applied to every organization.
 
For Minnesota, the reality is that both the starting pitching and relief staff needed work. With the cost of acquiring a starter being what it is, spending top dollar on a minimal impact role like a reliever is a tough ask. Instead, the Twins got creative by targeting high strikeout guys with strong track records. On top of that, they did so without much potential for negative repercussions considering the length and terms of each deal.
 
Where this story starts though, is at the beginning. Looking back to 2017, it's hard not to see Paul Molitor and his staff in a much better place when having to deploy relief help. There's no arguing that the Twins don't have an elite pen (or maybe even an above average one), but much improved is something they should have in spades.
 
On Opening Day of 2017, the Twins trotted Tyler Duffey, Michael Tonkin, Justin Haley, Ryan Pressly, Matt Belisle, Brandon Kintzler, Craig Breslow, and Taylor Rogers out to the bullpen. Of that group, only three remain, and each of them should find a spot in the 2018 pen from the jump. Assuming Minnesota goes with seven relievers (after beginning with eight a year ago), I'd imagine the group consists of: Duffey, Rogers, Pressly, Trevor Hildenberger, Zach Duke, Alan Busenitz, and Fernando Rodney.
 
Looking at the holdovers, you have two guys that have the ability to pitch in high leverage. While Pressly is the velocity guy, Duffey worked as a closer in college. Both can put the ball past opposing hitters, and looking for K/9 rates above 8.0 should be a safe assumption. In Rogers, Molitor gets a guy that was tested in his second year, and showed he can get batters out on both sides of the plate. Moving more towards the middle innings, he can act more as the second lefty, and be somewhat of a specialist.
 
In categorizing the additions, the Twins have a lot of new weapons at their disposal. Despite his age, Rodney is still pumping fastballs in the upper 90's. Yes he walks batters, but over the course of a full season, it's hard not to see him being an asset. Duke returned from Tommy John in record time, and the biggest takeaway from 2017 for him was health. He's a year removed from a 10.0 K/9 with the bulk of the season spent in the AL Central. Hildenberger and Busenitz both stepped in huge down the stretch for Minnesota a season ago. The former looked the part of a potential closer, while the latter is another velocity arm (95.8mph) that should see the strikeouts rise.
 
Given that this group is relatively established, and there's a bit more depth behind them, the Twins can feel a bit more at ease about their current positioning. We've been waiting on top relief arms to surface for some time, but names like Hildenberger, Busenitz, and John Curtiss simply stepped up first. Should J.T. Chargois, Tyler Jay, and Jake Reed see their time come in 2018, the overall water level for the relief corps will only continue to rise.
 
At the end of the day, the Twins bullpen isn't going to wow anyone on paper. For fans who've followed the organization however, it looks like one of the better groups in quite some time, and one that speaks to a certain level of sustainability. It took some time to get away from the soft tossing aspect in relief, but that doesn't appear to be the plan of action for anyone (save for Duke) who will enter the field from behind the wall. It may all blow up when the action actually starts, but there's reason for optimism with the current collection to be sure.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

As things stand, the Minnesota Twins have made two moves regarding their bullpen this offseason. In signing both Fernando Rodney and Zach Duke to one-year deals, they bring in proven veterans with skills in all the right places for the Twins. It seems Derek Falvey and Thad Levine sent a message in their relief acquisitions, and looking back to 2017, it is one that should be well received.
 
While teams have long since began venturing down the path of super bullpens, some of them go about it differently. At their peak, the Kansas City Royals seemed to do it more organically, while the Cleveland Indians moved some pieces around, and the current Colorado Rockies just threw money at everyone with a pulse. The idea that a start can be shortened through a strong bullpen is a good one, but it isn't a band-aid that can be applied to every organization.
 
For Minnesota, the reality is that both the starting pitching and relief staff needed work. With the cost of acquiring a starter being what it is, spending top dollar on a minimal impact role like a reliever is a tough ask. Instead, the Twins got creative by targeting high strikeout guys with strong track records. On top of that, they did so without much potential for negative repercussions considering the length and terms of each deal.
 
Where this story starts though, is at the beginning. Looking back to 2017, it's hard not to see Paul Molitor and his staff in a much better place when having to deploy relief help. There's no arguing that the Twins don't have an elite pen (or maybe even an above average one), but much improved is something they should have in spades.
 
On Opening Day of 2017, the Twins trotted Tyler Duffey, Michael Tonkin, Justin Haley, Ryan Pressly, Matt Belisle, Brandon Kintzler, Craig Breslow, and Taylor Rogers out to the bullpen. Of that group, only three remain, and each of them should find a spot in the 2018 pen from the jump. Assuming Minnesota goes with seven relievers (after beginning with eight a year ago), I'd imagine the group consists of: Duffey, Rogers, Pressly, Trevor Hildenberger, Zach Duke, Alan Busenitz, and Fernando Rodney.
 
Looking at the holdovers, you have two guys that have the ability to pitch in high leverage. While Pressly is the velocity guy, Duffey worked as a closer in college. Both can put the ball past opposing hitters, and looking for K/9 rates above 8.0 should be a safe assumption. In Rogers, Molitor gets a guy that was tested in his second year, and showed he can get batters out on both sides of the plate. Moving more towards the middle innings, he can act more as the second lefty, and be somewhat of a specialist.
 
In categorizing the additions, the Twins have a lot of new weapons at their disposal. Despite his age, Rodney is still pumping fastballs in the upper 90's. Yes he walks batters, but over the course of a full season, it's hard not to see him being an asset. Duke returned from Tommy John in record time, and the biggest takeaway from 2017 for him was health. He's a year removed from a 10.0 K/9 with the bulk of the season spent in the AL Central. Hildenberger and Busenitz both stepped in huge down the stretch for Minnesota a season ago. The former looked the part of a potential closer, while the latter is another velocity arm (95.8mph) that should see the strikeouts rise.
 
Given that this group is relatively established, and there's a bit more depth behind them, the Twins can feel a bit more at ease about their current positioning. We've been waiting on top relief arms to surface for some time, but names like Hildenberger, Busenitz, and John Curtiss simply stepped up first. Should J.T. Chargois, Tyler Jay, and Jake Reed see their time come in 2018, the overall water level for the relief corps will only continue to rise.
 
At the end of the day, the Twins bullpen isn't going to wow anyone on paper. For fans who've followed the organization however, it looks like one of the better groups in quite some time, and one that speaks to a certain level of sustainability. It took some time to get away from the soft tossing aspect in relief, but that doesn't appear to be the plan of action for anyone (save for Duke) who will enter the field from behind the wall. It may all blow up when the action actually starts, but there's reason for optimism with the current collection to be sure.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Entering the 2018 Major League Baseball season the Minnesota Twins greatest need is starting pitching. Obviously, that is a similar narrative for many teams across the sport, but there's little denying that things line up for the hometown team to make a big splash in the starting rotation. While Jose Berrios and Ervin Santana are locks among the five this year, Paul Molitor will have to quickly find out what Kyle Gibson he has in 2018.
 
The former 1st round (22nd overall) pick by Minnesota in 2009 has been the focus of many stories wondering if it will ever all come together. Making his big league debut at the age of 25 back in 2013, Gibson now embarks on his 6th MLB season, and will be doing so at the age of 30. He's yet to pitch more than 195 innings in a season, and his career 4.70 ERA speaks of mediocrity in the truest sense of the word. A pitch-to-contact type, Gibson's career 6.2 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 doesn't leave much to get hyped about, simply showing a level of predictability.
 
Rewind back to mid-2017 however, and Gibson appeared to buck his own narrative. Despite looking like a non-tender candidate for the early part of the year, the former Mizzou Tiger landed a 2018 arbitration deal that will come in somewhere around $5 million. Now the question is, how did he get there and will it continue?
 
A year ago, Gibson's first 17 starts for the Twins added up to a 6.29 ERA and a .920 OPS. He was sent down to Triple-A, and was dealt a hard dose of reality. After posting a 5.07 ERA in 2016, the 3.84 ERA from 2015 looked like a distant memory. Then, in a get-right opportunity, Gibson turned things around against the hapless Detroit Tigers on July 22nd. Twirling 7.1 IP of three-run ball, it was the first time since September 13, 2016 that he pitched at least seven innings. From that point on, a period of 12 starts, Gibson owned a 3.57 ERA and allowed opponents to tally just a .699 OPS. The change was drastic, and the sample size was indicative of it being sustainable. Going forward though, can he replicate what drove that success?
 
First and foremost, Gibson missed significantly more bats. In his first 17 starts from 2017, Gibson generated strikeouts just 14.1% of the time, while walking 10.4% of batters he faced. Those numbers are a far cry from the 22.1% strikeout rate, and 6.2% walk rate posted in the final 12 times on the mound. By getting more batters out on his own, he also increased his strand rate from 68.1% to 79.2%.
 
Virtually all of Gibson's balls put in play remained comparable by the percentages. He didn't have a drastic change in line drive, ground ball, or fly ball rates. He was able to shave just about 5% off of his HR/FB rate however. The dip in balls leaving the park could potentially be attributed to a slight swing (roughly 4%) of outcomes taken away from hard contact, and added to soft contact. What that also suggests however, is that we dive into the repertoire.
In looking at Gibson's offerings, I think there's a few takeaways to consider. First and foremost, there was a drastic change in regards to how Kyle attacked the strikezone. After predominantly working in the lower half of the zone through his bad stretch, Gibson attacked higher in the zone and on the corners down the stretch. Not being a high velocity pitcher (averaging 92.7 mph on his fastball) forcing the ball up in the zone can help to get it on hitters quicker. Obviously the swing plane changes based upon pitch location, and the added advantage of going up and in suggests Gibson felt more comfortable challenging opposing hitters.
 
Secondly, there was one pitch that jumped off the page during his success. After using his slider just 14% of the time through his first 1,495 pitches in 2017, the usage jumped over 20% through his final 1,115 pitches on the season. The numbers didn't equate to the career high 22.1% of sliders he threw a year ago (in fact he was at just 17.8% on the season), but it was clearly an offering he felt comfortable going back to. Notably, the slider also became somewhat of an out pitch. Looking at Gibson's pitch types by count courtesy of Baseball Savant, favorable counts saw a significant amount of the sweeping pitch. Despite being more of an afterthought early in the year, the slider generated 5% swinging strikes in the second half (compared to 3% in the first).
 
Finally, the slight changes allowed Gibson to see a difference in the results of batted balls against him. Launch angle for opposing hitters decreased, while barreled balls fell off a cliff. Gibson was generating slightly more weak contact, and the quality of balls being put into the field of play as a whole had sunk. Likely an indicator of the process as a whole, as opposed to any one single scenario, Gibson was seeing a payoff for his new tactics.
 
As a whole, it's hard to suggest that 2018 will see a full season of Gibson at his best. While the positive signs were shown down the stretch, none of the changes were revolutionary, and the differences were rather minor in the grand scheme of things. With a new pitching coach in Garvin Alston, maybe Gibson will find even more success with his slider than before. What we don't know, is whether the slight differences translate to sustainability for a 30 year old over the course of 30-plus starts. I do think that there's enough reason to believe Gibson can be more of his 2015 self than he's been each of the past two seasons however, and that would give Minnesota a quality back end option.
Even before adding another high-level arm into the fold, the Twins will have a stable of options to round out the rotation. With youth as a disadvantage, pitchers like Gibson and Phil Hughes will have to put their best foot forward on a nightly basis to set themselves apart. I'm not going to suggest Gibson will live up to his pre-debut hype, but serviceable seems to be a fair bet in 2018.
 
For more from Off The Baggy (and to see the graphical depictions of this article) click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Entering the 2018 Major League Baseball season the Minnesota Twins greatest need is starting pitching. Obviously, that is a similar narrative for many teams across the sport, but there's little denying that things line up for the hometown team to make a big splash in the starting rotation. While Jose Berrios and Ervin Santana are locks among the five this year, Paul Molitor will have to quickly find out what Kyle Gibson he has in 2018.
 
The former 1st round (22nd overall) pick by Minnesota in 2009 has been the focus of many stories wondering if it will ever all come together. Making his big league debut at the age of 25 back in 2013, Gibson now embarks on his 6th MLB season, and will be doing so at the age of 30. He's yet to pitch more than 195 innings in a season, and his career 4.70 ERA speaks of mediocrity in the truest sense of the word. A pitch-to-contact type, Gibson's career 6.2 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 doesn't leave much to get hyped about, simply showing a level of predictability.
 
Rewind back to mid-2017 however, and Gibson appeared to buck his own narrative. Despite looking like a non-tender candidate for the early part of the year, the former Mizzou Tiger landed a 2018 arbitration deal that will come in somewhere around $5 million. Now the question is, how did he get there and will it continue?
 
A year ago, Gibson's first 17 starts for the Twins added up to a 6.29 ERA and a .920 OPS. He was sent down to Triple-A, and was dealt a hard dose of reality. After posting a 5.07 ERA in 2016, the 3.84 ERA from 2015 looked like a distant memory. Then, in a get-right opportunity, Gibson turned things around against the hapless Detroit Tigers on July 22nd. Twirling 7.1 IP of three-run ball, it was the first time since September 13, 2016 that he pitched at least seven innings. From that point on, a period of 12 starts, Gibson owned a 3.57 ERA and allowed opponents to tally just a .699 OPS. The change was drastic, and the sample size was indicative of it being sustainable. Going forward though, can he replicate what drove that success?
 
First and foremost, Gibson missed significantly more bats. In his first 17 starts from 2017, Gibson generated strikeouts just 14.1% of the time, while walking 10.4% of batters he faced. Those numbers are a far cry from the 22.1% strikeout rate, and 6.2% walk rate posted in the final 12 times on the mound. By getting more batters out on his own, he also increased his strand rate from 68.1% to 79.2%.
 
Virtually all of Gibson's balls put in play remained comparable by the percentages. He didn't have a drastic change in line drive, ground ball, or fly ball rates. He was able to shave just about 5% off of his HR/FB rate however. The dip in balls leaving the park could potentially be attributed to a slight swing (roughly 4%) of outcomes taken away from hard contact, and added to soft contact. What that also suggests however, is that we dive into the repertoire.
In looking at Gibson's offerings, I think there's a few takeaways to consider. First and foremost, there was a drastic change in regards to how Kyle attacked the strikezone. After predominantly working in the lower half of the zone through his bad stretch, Gibson attacked higher in the zone and on the corners down the stretch. Not being a high velocity pitcher (averaging 92.7 mph on his fastball) forcing the ball up in the zone can help to get it on hitters quicker. Obviously the swing plane changes based upon pitch location, and the added advantage of going up and in suggests Gibson felt more comfortable challenging opposing hitters.
 
Secondly, there was one pitch that jumped off the page during his success. After using his slider just 14% of the time through his first 1,495 pitches in 2017, the usage jumped over 20% through his final 1,115 pitches on the season. The numbers didn't equate to the career high 22.1% of sliders he threw a year ago (in fact he was at just 17.8% on the season), but it was clearly an offering he felt comfortable going back to. Notably, the slider also became somewhat of an out pitch. Looking at Gibson's pitch types by count courtesy of Baseball Savant, favorable counts saw a significant amount of the sweeping pitch. Despite being more of an afterthought early in the year, the slider generated 5% swinging strikes in the second half (compared to 3% in the first).
 
Finally, the slight changes allowed Gibson to see a difference in the results of batted balls against him. Launch angle for opposing hitters decreased, while barreled balls fell off a cliff. Gibson was generating slightly more weak contact, and the quality of balls being put into the field of play as a whole had sunk. Likely an indicator of the process as a whole, as opposed to any one single scenario, Gibson was seeing a payoff for his new tactics.
 
As a whole, it's hard to suggest that 2018 will see a full season of Gibson at his best. While the positive signs were shown down the stretch, none of the changes were revolutionary, and the differences were rather minor in the grand scheme of things. With a new pitching coach in Garvin Alston, maybe Gibson will find even more success with his slider than before. What we don't know, is whether the slight differences translate to sustainability for a 30 year old over the course of 30-plus starts. I do think that there's enough reason to believe Gibson can be more of his 2015 self than he's been each of the past two seasons however, and that would give Minnesota a quality back end option.
Even before adding another high-level arm into the fold, the Twins will have a stable of options to round out the rotation. With youth as a disadvantage, pitchers like Gibson and Phil Hughes will have to put their best foot forward on a nightly basis to set themselves apart. I'm not going to suggest Gibson will live up to his pre-debut hype, but serviceable seems to be a fair bet in 2018.
 
For more from Off The Baggy (and to see the graphical depictions of this article) click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Entering the 2018 Major League Baseball season the Minnesota Twins greatest need is starting pitching. Obviously, that is a similar narrative for many teams across the sport, but there's little denying that things line up for the hometown team to make a big splash in the starting rotation. While Jose Berrios and Ervin Santana are locks among the five this year, Paul Molitor will have to quickly find out what Kyle Gibson he has in 2018.
 
The former 1st round (22nd overall) pick by Minnesota in 2009 has been the focus of many stories wondering if it will ever all come together. Making his big league debut at the age of 25 back in 2013, Gibson now embarks on his 6th MLB season, and will be doing so at the age of 30. He's yet to pitch more than 195 innings in a season, and his career 4.70 ERA speaks of mediocrity in the truest sense of the word. A pitch-to-contact type, Gibson's career 6.2 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 doesn't leave much to get hyped about, simply showing a level of predictability.
 
Rewind back to mid-2017 however, and Gibson appeared to buck his own narrative. Despite looking like a non-tender candidate for the early part of the year, the former Mizzou Tiger landed a 2018 arbitration deal that will come in somewhere around $5 million. Now the question is, how did he get there and will it continue?
 
A year ago, Gibson's first 17 starts for the Twins added up to a 6.29 ERA and a .920 OPS. He was sent down to Triple-A, and was dealt a hard dose of reality. After posting a 5.07 ERA in 2016, the 3.84 ERA from 2015 looked like a distant memory. Then, in a get-right opportunity, Gibson turned things around against the hapless Detroit Tigers on July 22nd. Twirling 7.1 IP of three-run ball, it was the first time since September 13, 2016 that he pitched at least seven innings. From that point on, a period of 12 starts, Gibson owned a 3.57 ERA and allowed opponents to tally just a .699 OPS. The change was drastic, and the sample size was indicative of it being sustainable. Going forward though, can he replicate what drove that success?
 
First and foremost, Gibson missed significantly more bats. In his first 17 starts from 2017, Gibson generated strikeouts just 14.1% of the time, while walking 10.4% of batters he faced. Those numbers are a far cry from the 22.1% strikeout rate, and 6.2% walk rate posted in the final 12 times on the mound. By getting more batters out on his own, he also increased his strand rate from 68.1% to 79.2%.
 
Virtually all of Gibson's balls put in play remained comparable by the percentages. He didn't have a drastic change in line drive, ground ball, or fly ball rates. He was able to shave just about 5% off of his HR/FB rate however. The dip in balls leaving the park could potentially be attributed to a slight swing (roughly 4%) of outcomes taken away from hard contact, and added to soft contact. What that also suggests however, is that we dive into the repertoire.
In looking at Gibson's offerings, I think there's a few takeaways to consider. First and foremost, there was a drastic change in regards to how Kyle attacked the strikezone. After predominantly working in the lower half of the zone through his bad stretch, Gibson attacked higher in the zone and on the corners down the stretch. Not being a high velocity pitcher (averaging 92.7 mph on his fastball) forcing the ball up in the zone can help to get it on hitters quicker. Obviously the swing plane changes based upon pitch location, and the added advantage of going up and in suggests Gibson felt more comfortable challenging opposing hitters.
 
Secondly, there was one pitch that jumped off the page during his success. After using his slider just 14% of the time through his first 1,495 pitches in 2017, the usage jumped over 20% through his final 1,115 pitches on the season. The numbers didn't equate to the career high 22.1% of sliders he threw a year ago (in fact he was at just 17.8% on the season), but it was clearly an offering he felt comfortable going back to. Notably, the slider also became somewhat of an out pitch. Looking at Gibson's pitch types by count courtesy of Baseball Savant, favorable counts saw a significant amount of the sweeping pitch. Despite being more of an afterthought early in the year, the slider generated 5% swinging strikes in the second half (compared to 3% in the first).
 
Finally, the slight changes allowed Gibson to see a difference in the results of batted balls against him. Launch angle for opposing hitters decreased, while barreled balls fell off a cliff. Gibson was generating slightly more weak contact, and the quality of balls being put into the field of play as a whole had sunk. Likely an indicator of the process as a whole, as opposed to any one single scenario, Gibson was seeing a payoff for his new tactics.
 
As a whole, it's hard to suggest that 2018 will see a full season of Gibson at his best. While the positive signs were shown down the stretch, none of the changes were revolutionary, and the differences were rather minor in the grand scheme of things. With a new pitching coach in Garvin Alston, maybe Gibson will find even more success with his slider than before. What we don't know, is whether the slight differences translate to sustainability for a 30 year old over the course of 30-plus starts. I do think that there's enough reason to believe Gibson can be more of his 2015 self than he's been each of the past two seasons however, and that would give Minnesota a quality back end option.
Even before adding another high-level arm into the fold, the Twins will have a stable of options to round out the rotation. With youth as a disadvantage, pitchers like Gibson and Phil Hughes will have to put their best foot forward on a nightly basis to set themselves apart. I'm not going to suggest Gibson will live up to his pre-debut hype, but serviceable seems to be a fair bet in 2018.
 
For more from Off The Baggy (and to see the graphical depictions of this article) click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Entering the 2018 Major League Baseball season the Minnesota Twins greatest need is starting pitching. Obviously, that is a similar narrative for many teams across the sport, but there's little denying that things line up for the hometown team to make a big splash in the starting rotation. While Jose Berrios and Ervin Santana are locks among the five this year, Paul Molitor will have to quickly find out what Kyle Gibson he has in 2018.
 
The former 1st round (22nd overall) pick by Minnesota in 2009 has been the focus of many stories wondering if it will ever all come together. Making his big league debut at the age of 25 back in 2013, Gibson now embarks on his 6th MLB season, and will be doing so at the age of 30. He's yet to pitch more than 195 innings in a season, and his career 4.70 ERA speaks of mediocrity in the truest sense of the word. A pitch-to-contact type, Gibson's career 6.2 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 doesn't leave much to get hyped about, simply showing a level of predictability.
 
Rewind back to mid-2017 however, and Gibson appeared to buck his own narrative. Despite looking like a non-tender candidate for the early part of the year, the former Mizzou Tiger landed a 2018 arbitration deal that will come in somewhere around $5 million. Now the question is, how did he get there and will it continue?
 
A year ago, Gibson's first 17 starts for the Twins added up to a 6.29 ERA and a .920 OPS. He was sent down to Triple-A, and was dealt a hard dose of reality. After posting a 5.07 ERA in 2016, the 3.84 ERA from 2015 looked like a distant memory. Then, in a get-right opportunity, Gibson turned things around against the hapless Detroit Tigers on July 22nd. Twirling 7.1 IP of three-run ball, it was the first time since September 13, 2016 that he pitched at least seven innings. From that point on, a period of 12 starts, Gibson owned a 3.57 ERA and allowed opponents to tally just a .699 OPS. The change was drastic, and the sample size was indicative of it being sustainable. Going forward though, can he replicate what drove that success?
 
First and foremost, Gibson missed significantly more bats. In his first 17 starts from 2017, Gibson generated strikeouts just 14.1% of the time, while walking 10.4% of batters he faced. Those numbers are a far cry from the 22.1% strikeout rate, and 6.2% walk rate posted in the final 12 times on the mound. By getting more batters out on his own, he also increased his strand rate from 68.1% to 79.2%.
 
Virtually all of Gibson's balls put in play remained comparable by the percentages. He didn't have a drastic change in line drive, ground ball, or fly ball rates. He was able to shave just about 5% off of his HR/FB rate however. The dip in balls leaving the park could potentially be attributed to a slight swing (roughly 4%) of outcomes taken away from hard contact, and added to soft contact. What that also suggests however, is that we dive into the repertoire.
In looking at Gibson's offerings, I think there's a few takeaways to consider. First and foremost, there was a drastic change in regards to how Kyle attacked the strikezone. After predominantly working in the lower half of the zone through his bad stretch, Gibson attacked higher in the zone and on the corners down the stretch. Not being a high velocity pitcher (averaging 92.7 mph on his fastball) forcing the ball up in the zone can help to get it on hitters quicker. Obviously the swing plane changes based upon pitch location, and the added advantage of going up and in suggests Gibson felt more comfortable challenging opposing hitters.
 
Secondly, there was one pitch that jumped off the page during his success. After using his slider just 14% of the time through his first 1,495 pitches in 2017, the usage jumped over 20% through his final 1,115 pitches on the season. The numbers didn't equate to the career high 22.1% of sliders he threw a year ago (in fact he was at just 17.8% on the season), but it was clearly an offering he felt comfortable going back to. Notably, the slider also became somewhat of an out pitch. Looking at Gibson's pitch types by count courtesy of Baseball Savant, favorable counts saw a significant amount of the sweeping pitch. Despite being more of an afterthought early in the year, the slider generated 5% swinging strikes in the second half (compared to 3% in the first).
 
Finally, the slight changes allowed Gibson to see a difference in the results of batted balls against him. Launch angle for opposing hitters decreased, while barreled balls fell off a cliff. Gibson was generating slightly more weak contact, and the quality of balls being put into the field of play as a whole had sunk. Likely an indicator of the process as a whole, as opposed to any one single scenario, Gibson was seeing a payoff for his new tactics.
 
As a whole, it's hard to suggest that 2018 will see a full season of Gibson at his best. While the positive signs were shown down the stretch, none of the changes were revolutionary, and the differences were rather minor in the grand scheme of things. With a new pitching coach in Garvin Alston, maybe Gibson will find even more success with his slider than before. What we don't know, is whether the slight differences translate to sustainability for a 30 year old over the course of 30-plus starts. I do think that there's enough reason to believe Gibson can be more of his 2015 self than he's been each of the past two seasons however, and that would give Minnesota a quality back end option.
Even before adding another high-level arm into the fold, the Twins will have a stable of options to round out the rotation. With youth as a disadvantage, pitchers like Gibson and Phil Hughes will have to put their best foot forward on a nightly basis to set themselves apart. I'm not going to suggest Gibson will live up to his pre-debut hype, but serviceable seems to be a fair bet in 2018.
 
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Eddie Rosario has always been a polarizing player for me. In his first extended stint with the Twins in 2015, he showed flashes of a really exciting all round game. He was a good base runner (4.7 runs above average), a solid defender (2.2 runs above average), and clobbered 13 home runs in his age 23 season. Rosario had excelled throughout 5 minor league destinations, and was noted for having an exceptionally quick bat and hands. There were a few major problems. Rosario struck out a lot (25% in 2015, compared to a league average 21%) and he rarely walked. Like, ever. In 2015 Rosario walked just 15 times in 474 plate appearances, good for a BB% of just 3.2%, well below the league average of 8.1%. Taken together, Rosario’s strikeouts and inability to take a walk amounted to cripplingly poor plate discipline.
 
In 2016 some of the aspects of Rosario’s game which made him exciting disappeared. His base running regressed marginally in 2016, and majorly in 2017. His defense went from good in 2015, to acceptable in 2016, to pretty bad in 2017 (-6.2 runs above average), a dip not often discussed in the Twins heralded ‘nothing falls but raindrops’ outfield, which should be renamed to reflect the fact that anyone not named Byron Buxton is actually a poor to average defensive outfielder.
 
Rosario’s regression and streaky hitting were so infuriating that it led to discussion about whether he would be the odd man out in the Twins up and coming outfield moving forwards, with Buxton spectacular, Kepler solid, and Zack Granite pushing for playing time with an impressive season at Rochester. Throughout his first two seasons, Rosario had shown little progress in his plate discipline, leading folks to voice the possibility that he had hit his ceiling. Enter James Rowson.
 
If Pat Shurmur is the MVP of the Vikings this season, Rowson deserves the same plaudits for his work with Buxton, Polanco, and Rosario in 2017. In researching Rowson, two things seem to stand out about his approach with the young core of Twins hitters; firstly, he wants players to have a high comfort level in taking ownership of their own swings, secondly, he’s keenly aware of the strengths and weaknesses of hit hitters and publicly pushes those buttons. After a game against the White Sox, Rowson named Rosario the player of the game, despite going 0-4, crediting him for helping teammates see more pitches from Jose Quintana which eventually allowed them to force him from the game.
 
Rosario’s numbers from 2017 are a testament to Rowson’s work. He increased his BB% to just under 6%, taking 23 more walks than he did in 2016. Rosario’s OBP jumped almost 30 points, despite a 26 point decrease in his BaBIP from 2016 to 2017. The main cause for this increased ability to get on base? Rosario was significantly more selective with his swings in 2017. He dropped his O-Swing % (the percentage of time he swings at pitches outside the strike zone) from 42% to 37%. This decreased his overall SwStr% around 5% and led to a significantly increased Contact% (percentage of the time a hitter makes contact when swinging at all pitches). Overall, Rosario wasn’t swinging at significantly less pitches, he’s swinging at significantly more hittable ones, leading to a spike in home runs, walks, and isolated power.
 
Entering his final pre-arbitration year in 2018 Rosario will need to keep his improved offensive output going to offset other diminishing skill sets. If Rosario can continue to build upon his improved plate discipline in 2018, he could finish the season as one of the more offensively productive outfielders in the American league.

While you were opening presents, spending time with your family, and scarfing down cookies on Christmas, the Minnesota Twins went shopping in the free agent pool. Zach Duke becomes the latest member of Paul Molitor's bullpen, and that has some different narratives we need to discuss. Then this morning, Darren Wolfson dropped a Miguel Sano sized bomb that needs some more dissecting as well.
 
Duke, who will pitch the 2018 season at the age of 35, is just over a year removed from Tommy John surgery. After undergoing the procedure in September of 2016, he returned for 27 appearances and 18.1 IP for the Cardinals a year ago. In that time, he posted a 3.93 ERA along with a 5.9 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. What makes Duke intriguing however, is what his numbers look like immediately prior to his injury.
 
Having pitched as a starter for the entirety of his time with the Pirates (2005-10), Duke didn't become a true full-time reliever until 2014. In his three years of relief work, he posted a 2.74 ERA across 180.1 IP for the Brewers, White Sox, and Cardinals. That number also came with a glowing 10.4 K/9 and a 3.9 BB/9. Out of the pen, Duke really didn't see much of a velocity boost, still hovering around the 89 mph range.
 
In 2017, Duke returned with his fastball averaging 88.1 mph (so slightly down from pre-surgery). He utilizes a sinker, slider, changeup, and curveball making him a valuable four-pitch pitcher in relief. As a lefty, Minnesota can now look at Buddy Boshers as expendable, and would then have an avenue to get the 40 man roster back to 39 players.
 
Per Darren Wolfson, Duke's deal is a one-year contract worth something like $1.5-2 million. This follows along the same lines as what I believe the Twins told us with Fernando Rodney. They looked for relief help that could be had on one-year deals with significant upside. Both Duke and Rodney are bolster a pen that needed help in 2017, and neither are true roadblocks to the emergence of players such as Tyler Jay, Alan Busenitz, J.T. Chargois, or Jake Reed. Rather than building an expensive pen, Minnesota is getting creative and making what seem to be smart decisions.
 
On another front, it appears that the Twins are exploring all avenues when it comes to bettering the roster as a whole. Talking on 1500 ESPN, Wolfson noted that Miguel Sano has been a name floated by Minnesota in trade talks. This hardly comes as a surprise, and I firmly believe Sano is the best piece of the young core to move if you are going to do so.
 
Making an offer to another team with Sano as the headliner right now could be a bit tricky. Although his .859 OPS a year ago represented a great season (and a career high 28 HRs), he's coming off a season ending surgery that resulted in a rod being inserted in his leg. Going forward, the Twins have suggested they don't see any limitations, but at this point, that's hardly a sure thing. When considering the landscape of Twins talent however, Sano's skillset jumps out as the most replaceable asset.
 
Going into any given year, you can expect a handful of things from Miguel Sano. He's probably going to play over an ideal weight, he'll hit a significant amount of home runs, he'll draw a decent amount of walks, the strikeouts will be there, and at times you'll need to utilize first base or the designated hitter spot to get him off of third. There's a lot of good in those realities, but there's a few very real detractors as well. Those detractors are no doubt the highlights of the conversations Minnesota's front office must have when considering moving their All Star third basemen.
 
Even with the injury uncertainty, Minnesota isn't simply going to have to give Sano away. While it may deflate his value a bit, I'd bet that there's plenty of teams looking at him as a future cornerstone. Should a match be made in which Sano can return front line pitching, I'd suggest that as something the Twins should explore. If Yu Darvish can't be had on the open market, a swap of Chris Archer for Miguel Sano (and another piece or two) could be something that would benefit the Twins in the long run.
 
Getting a controllable pitcher, with ace potential, in return for a power hitting corner infielder seems to be a decent tradeoff. Third base isn't a position with a ton of options, but both Todd Frazier and Mike Moustakas remain available for a team to jump at. Eduardo Escobar could also assume the starting role, with a bigger bopper but lesser fielder left on the bench to rotate in. At any rate, the tradeoff seems one worth exploring.
 
As things stand now, I'd imagine Minnesota would prefer to sign Darvish as opposed to trading Sano. Keeping physical assets while spending cash should always be the preferred mode of acquisition with all things being equal. However, as the scenarios work themselves out, it certainly appears like Thad Levine and Derek Falvey have a backup plan or two in place. The Hot Stove may be cool for the moment, but I don't think we'll continue to see it stay that way for the rest of the winter.

While you were opening presents, spending time with your family, and scarfing down cookies on Christmas, the Minnesota Twins went shopping in the free agent pool. Zach Duke becomes the latest member of Paul Molitor's bullpen, and that has some different narratives we need to discuss. Then this morning, Darren Wolfson dropped a Miguel Sano sized bomb that needs some more dissecting as well.
 
Duke, who will pitch the 2018 season at the age of 35, is just over a year removed from Tommy John surgery. After undergoing the procedure in September of 2016, he returned for 27 appearances and 18.1 IP for the Cardinals a year ago. In that time, he posted a 3.93 ERA along with a 5.9 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. What makes Duke intriguing however, is what his numbers look like immediately prior to his injury.
 
Having pitched as a starter for the entirety of his time with the Pirates (2005-10), Duke didn't become a true full-time reliever until 2014. In his three years of relief work, he posted a 2.74 ERA across 180.1 IP for the Brewers, White Sox, and Cardinals. That number also came with a glowing 10.4 K/9 and a 3.9 BB/9. Out of the pen, Duke really didn't see much of a velocity boost, still hovering around the 89 mph range.
 
In 2017, Duke returned with his fastball averaging 88.1 mph (so slightly down from pre-surgery). He utilizes a sinker, slider, changeup, and curveball making him a valuable four-pitch pitcher in relief. As a lefty, Minnesota can now look at Buddy Boshers as expendable, and would then have an avenue to get the 40 man roster back to 39 players.
 
Per Darren Wolfson, Duke's deal is a one-year contract worth something like $1.5-2 million. This follows along the same lines as what I believe the Twins told us with Fernando Rodney. They looked for relief help that could be had on one-year deals with significant upside. Both Duke and Rodney are bolster a pen that needed help in 2017, and neither are true roadblocks to the emergence of players such as Tyler Jay, Alan Busenitz, J.T. Chargois, or Jake Reed. Rather than building an expensive pen, Minnesota is getting creative and making what seem to be smart decisions.
 
On another front, it appears that the Twins are exploring all avenues when it comes to bettering the roster as a whole. Talking on 1500 ESPN, Wolfson noted that Miguel Sano has been a name floated by Minnesota in trade talks. This hardly comes as a surprise, and I firmly believe Sano is the best piece of the young core to move if you are going to do so.
 
Making an offer to another team with Sano as the headliner right now could be a bit tricky. Although his .859 OPS a year ago represented a great season (and a career high 28 HRs), he's coming off a season ending surgery that resulted in a rod being inserted in his leg. Going forward, the Twins have suggested they don't see any limitations, but at this point, that's hardly a sure thing. When considering the landscape of Twins talent however, Sano's skillset jumps out as the most replaceable asset.
 
Going into any given year, you can expect a handful of things from Miguel Sano. He's probably going to play over an ideal weight, he'll hit a significant amount of home runs, he'll draw a decent amount of walks, the strikeouts will be there, and at times you'll need to utilize first base or the designated hitter spot to get him off of third. There's a lot of good in those realities, but there's a few very real detractors as well. Those detractors are no doubt the highlights of the conversations Minnesota's front office must have when considering moving their All Star third basemen.
 
Even with the injury uncertainty, Minnesota isn't simply going to have to give Sano away. While it may deflate his value a bit, I'd bet that there's plenty of teams looking at him as a future cornerstone. Should a match be made in which Sano can return front line pitching, I'd suggest that as something the Twins should explore. If Yu Darvish can't be had on the open market, a swap of Chris Archer for Miguel Sano (and another piece or two) could be something that would benefit the Twins in the long run.
 
Getting a controllable pitcher, with ace potential, in return for a power hitting corner infielder seems to be a decent tradeoff. Third base isn't a position with a ton of options, but both Todd Frazier and Mike Moustakas remain available for a team to jump at. Eduardo Escobar could also assume the starting role, with a bigger bopper but lesser fielder left on the bench to rotate in. At any rate, the tradeoff seems one worth exploring.
 
As things stand now, I'd imagine Minnesota would prefer to sign Darvish as opposed to trading Sano. Keeping physical assets while spending cash should always be the preferred mode of acquisition with all things being equal. However, as the scenarios work themselves out, it certainly appears like Thad Levine and Derek Falvey have a backup plan or two in place. The Hot Stove may be cool for the moment, but I don't think we'll continue to see it stay that way for the rest of the winter.

At the Minnesota Twins embarked upon the offseason, one area of necessary improvement was in finding a top of the rotation starting pitcher. While ace types don't grow on trees, the free agent landscape had a few answers. Now, as the crop of available arms has thinned, it begs wondering whether it's Yu Darvish or bust for the hometown team.
 
While it's true that the Twins need to address starting pitching, it's also a fact that they need to focus on it at the top. Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios are currently the top two options for the club. As things stand, Santana is a nice 2 or 3 type, while Berrios fits in there with a potential to climb higher. Behind them though, there's a large group of guys that represent back end rotation options. Everyone from Kyle Gibson and Phil Hughes to Trevor May, Aaron Slegers, Dietrich Enns, Adalberto Mejia, and Felix Jorge would be among this bunch. That's a lot of arms that have very similar projections.
 
For Minnesota to best position themselves coming off a Wild Card season, they'll need to put their best foot forward on the 2018 Opening Day roster. Both the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Angels have gotten significantly better, and Minnesota's best opportunity may be in taking sights at a weak AL Central. Expecting just five starters to make appearances all year is a pipe dream (heck, in 2017 the Twins used 16), so having the depth arms helps. What a glut of back end options doesn't do however, is raise the overall water level.
 
Unfortunately for Minnesota, it's getting to the point that Darvish may be the only option that moves the needle. Both Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb still remain on the open market. Returning from Tommy John surgery, Lynn posted a 7.4 K/9 along with a 3.43 ERA in 2017. Those marks are down from his career norms, and while he could see an uptick the further he gets from Tommy John, there's no guarantees at 31 years old. Cobb had a healthy 2017, and while it wasn't the 2.82 ERA and 8.2 K/9 he posted in 2013/14, his 6.4 K/9 and 3.66 ERA would be more than serviceable for the Twins. Both of those guys however, check in right at the level of Santana and Berrios.
 
Of the remaining options (and ruling out Jake Arrieta based upon projected value and asking price), Darvish is clearly a step above the rest. His 3.86 ERA in 2017 isn't glowing, but the 10.1 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 numbers were nothing short of ace-like. He fared significantly better once out of the hitters park that is the Ballpark in Arlington, and Target Field would be more than a welcoming home. He'll also be further removed from Tommy John surgery, and while he too will be 31, the velocity (94.7mph in 2017) was actually above his pre-surgery years.
 
Should Minnesota end up landing on either Cobb or Lynn, they'll likely pay something north of an average annual value of $12 million to get them. Yes, it's fair to assume that Darvish is going to command double that, but it comes down to what kind of staff Derek Falvey and Thad Levine want to build. Adding Lynn or Cobb would give the Twins a three headed top half that resembles a good level of quality without a top end expectation of performance. Thrusting Darvish into the top of the group would allow the Twins an arm they could lean on winning games by its own merits every fifth day.
 
There's a lot to unpack, and deciding to drop that amount of cash into one player is undoubtedly a tough ask. For Minnesota though, this seems like the perfect storm to splurge a bit, and neither Lynn or Cobb fall within those parameters. The Twins are hardly the only team vying for his services, but it'll be a tough pill to swallow if Yu ends up elsewhere in 2018.
 
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At the Minnesota Twins embarked upon the offseason, one area of necessary improvement was in finding a top of the rotation starting pitcher. While ace types don't grow on trees, the free agent landscape had a few answers. Now, as the crop of available arms has thinned, it begs wondering whether it's Yu Darvish or bust for the hometown team.
 
While it's true that the Twins need to address starting pitching, it's also a fact that they need to focus on it at the top. Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios are currently the top two options for the club. As things stand, Santana is a nice 2 or 3 type, while Berrios fits in there with a potential to climb higher. Behind them though, there's a large group of guys that represent back end rotation options. Everyone from Kyle Gibson and Phil Hughes to Trevor May, Aaron Slegers, Dietrich Enns, Adalberto Mejia, and Felix Jorge would be among this bunch. That's a lot of arms that have very similar projections.
 
For Minnesota to best position themselves coming off a Wild Card season, they'll need to put their best foot forward on the 2018 Opening Day roster. Both the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Angels have gotten significantly better, and Minnesota's best opportunity may be in taking sights at a weak AL Central. Expecting just five starters to make appearances all year is a pipe dream (heck, in 2017 the Twins used 16), so having the depth arms helps. What a glut of back end options doesn't do however, is raise the overall water level.
 
Unfortunately for Minnesota, it's getting to the point that Darvish may be the only option that moves the needle. Both Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb still remain on the open market. Returning from Tommy John surgery, Lynn posted a 7.4 K/9 along with a 3.43 ERA in 2017. Those marks are down from his career norms, and while he could see an uptick the further he gets from Tommy John, there's no guarantees at 31 years old. Cobb had a healthy 2017, and while it wasn't the 2.82 ERA and 8.2 K/9 he posted in 2013/14, his 6.4 K/9 and 3.66 ERA would be more than serviceable for the Twins. Both of those guys however, check in right at the level of Santana and Berrios.
 
Of the remaining options (and ruling out Jake Arrieta based upon projected value and asking price), Darvish is clearly a step above the rest. His 3.86 ERA in 2017 isn't glowing, but the 10.1 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 numbers were nothing short of ace-like. He fared significantly better once out of the hitters park that is the Ballpark in Arlington, and Target Field would be more than a welcoming home. He'll also be further removed from Tommy John surgery, and while he too will be 31, the velocity (94.7mph in 2017) was actually above his pre-surgery years.
 
Should Minnesota end up landing on either Cobb or Lynn, they'll likely pay something north of an average annual value of $12 million to get them. Yes, it's fair to assume that Darvish is going to command double that, but it comes down to what kind of staff Derek Falvey and Thad Levine want to build. Adding Lynn or Cobb would give the Twins a three headed top half that resembles a good level of quality without a top end expectation of performance. Thrusting Darvish into the top of the group would allow the Twins an arm they could lean on winning games by its own merits every fifth day.
 
There's a lot to unpack, and deciding to drop that amount of cash into one player is undoubtedly a tough ask. For Minnesota though, this seems like the perfect storm to splurge a bit, and neither Lynn or Cobb fall within those parameters. The Twins are hardly the only team vying for his services, but it'll be a tough pill to swallow if Yu ends up elsewhere in 2018.
 
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On May 10, 2017 I opined on Twitter that Yu Darvish would look really good in a Minnesota Twins uniform. He was an impending free agent, had ties to half of the new front office, and would be an ace for a team desperately in need of one. From that point on, it was mentioned that was a pipe dream. Now, it may still be, but the reality is many more specifics are being discussed. When it comes to a free agent contract though, how much sense do the dollars actually make?
 
I have no idea what Darvish or any of the other type free agent starting pitchers will command on an average annual value basis. I'd imagine that each of them is targeting something upwards of $20m per year however. On a six-year deal, you're looking at a sum of at least $120 million at that point. While none of us are billionaires spending our own payroll on this, reality says that in the right situation, those actually doling out the cash shouldn't be afraid either.
 
When it comes to free agent contracts, and long term deals in general, there's one hard truth to how value is handed down. The reality is that payment is being made for past performance, and it's being granted on a future basis in hopes of projected performance. That's to say, you pay a hefty price for a top tier player's previous accolades, and you do so in length hoping it continues for your organization. The unfortunate other side of the coin is that nothing is guaranteed.
 
For Twins fast, this reality couldn't be any more prevalent than with Joe Mauer. At the time of his new deal, he was a soon to be 28 year-old with three batting titles, four All Star appearances, three Gold Gloves, and an MVP award under his belt. To be frank, he was on a trajectory to go down as the greatest catcher to ever play the game of baseball. Add in that a mid-market team had the marketability of him being a hometown guy and former number one overall pick to create your perfect storm. That was what the past performance looked like.
 
Unfortunately for Mauer and the Twins, the projected performance was dealt a huge blow thanks in part to a career altering brain injury. Despite two more All Star appearances, Mauer has been since forced out from behind the plate, and has had to recreate himself as a ballplayer in other ways. It's something neither party could have predicted nor hoped at the time the deal was struck. Bringing things full circle, we arrive yet again at the free agent landscape.
 
In 2015, Zack Greinke signed a six-year $206m deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks. At 32 years old in 2016, he was mediocre at best and the Diamondbacks finished 4th in the NL West. A season ago, he bounced back nicely and helped to lead Arizona to a NLDS berth. Paired with the talent Arizona had, and the Dodgers seen as their main competition, the Diamondbacks went for it knowing they may get bit in the end. With four years left on his deal, Greinke probably has another season or two of high level production, and then it becomes time to pick up the pieces from there.
 
Another recent long term deal stays in the NL with the Washington Nationals. Max Scherzer is being paid $210 million over seven years, but the Nets deferred half the money, opting instead to pay him $15 million a year for 14 years. While it's great that Scherzer has been a three-time All Star and two-time Cy Young while with the Nationals, that deal was consummated to maximize a World Series opportunity with the likes of Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon. The window closes as Bryce likely leaves town prior to 2019, and Washington will then have to decide what's next.
 
Looking across the landscape of baseball, you can find any number of long term deals failing at the end. The unfortunate side effect of grabbing a proven vet for their last pay day, is that at some point, they'll get old. What should go into the thought process is how that aging and effectiveness bell curve lines up with what an organization currently sees as its future.
 
Back to the Twins, and really Darvish if we're being hopeful here. Does a six year deal upwards of $125 million strike some fear in the payroll breakdown? Maybe a little, but the factors suggest that it probably shouldn't. Forget about what money Minnesota has coming off the books, and look solely at what a Darvish type would do for the current state of the organization. Only the Cleveland Indians are in a position to be competitive among AL Central foes in the near future, and the Twins have gotten both young and good at the right time. Even if a long term/big money deal flops in the final year or two, maximizing the next four seasons should be something the Twins set out to do.
 
Four years from now guys like Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton will be nearly 30 years old. They'll be eyeing free agency on their own. Brian Dozier will probably be long gone, and the talk may be of how Royce Lewis fits into the next wave. If adding a gaudy contract best positions Paul Molitor to get a World Series out of his current core, the focus should be on how beneficial that could be in the here and now, as opposed to when it falls apart some years down the road.
 
Not all free agents are created equal, and rarely do they enter the market young (hence why Manny Machado and Bryce Harper will need a Brinks truck next offseason). Shying away from proven talent in fear of a blowup deal can keep you safe, but rarely is it going to hand you the piece you may need most.
 
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This morning, the Twins started off the Wednesday of the Winter Meetings with an agreement. Former New York Yankees pitcher Michael Pineda, was announced as signing a two-year deal with the club. Before diving into any specifics, Minnesota adding starting pitching is a good thing. Opening up the hood however, that's where this move gets juicy.
 
Thad Levine and Derek Falvey targeted an injured player with their first major league free agent signing of the offseason. Pineda made 17 starts for the Yankees in 2017 prior to undergoing Tommy John surgery. A best case scenario would put him on track to return late in 2018, but the more likely reality is that he misses all of the upcoming season. Knowing this, the front office got him on a team friendly two-year, $10 million deal. Paying him $2 million in the first year while he rehabs, the Twins will then bump his salary to $8 million in 2019.
 
Over the past three seasons for the Yankees, Pineda has thrown 432.2 IP and compiled a 4.56 ERA. His 3.82 FIP is a much nicer number, and his 9.5 K/9 would be easily the best mark on the Twins starting staff. He also pounds the zone well, issuing free passes at just a 2.0 BB/9 clip.
 
For the Twins, building a rotation more capable of missing bats and sitting down hitters, Pineda fits the mold. His fastball sits mid-90s and he pairs it with an upper 80s changeup and a mid 80s slider. Over the course of his career, he's owned a 12.5% swinging strike rate, which checks in around the same level as guys like Yu Darvish. In 2016 with the Yankees, Pineda spiked that number all the way up to 14.1%. He also generates a solid chase rate, getting batters to swing at pitches outside of the zone over one-third of the time.
 
Although Tommy John still presents a handful of hurdles to overcome, it's a much more routine procedure than it was even five years ago. Expecting some dip across the board is probably fair, but many pitchers return to the same level, if not better, after having the surgery. Paying $2 million in 2018 to have a hands on approach with a pitcher that will be just 30 years old in 2019 is a very good bet.
 
At the end of the day, a healthy Pineda probably gets something along the lines of Tyler Chatwood's three-year, $38 million deal. Instead of an average annual value north of $12.5 million, the Twins will get a healthy Pineda in 2019 at a modest $8 million mark. This is a creative way to take a gamble with significant upside, and it's the way teams with lower budgets should look to find competitive advantages.
 
Spending on Pineda does little to the Twins other plans, and it should only enhance Twins fans expectations of what lies ahead. This front office puts its best foot forward once again, and the more times it happens, it never seems to get old.
 
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