Jamie Cameron

Great noticing. Very Gordon-esque tale of two halves.

Agree, definitely a ton of other names to look out for. I specifically looked at RHP but LHP would have included Alex Wilson and Xavier Cedeno.

Twins fans became apoplectic on Friday evening when Cody Allen, coming off a horrendous 2018, signed a one-year pact with the Angels. Allen represented the last big-name, big-rep free agent reliever available besides Craig Kimbrel. Twins Twitter instantly descended into a level of chaos usually reserved for dystopian Jimmy Butler practice sessions or Vikings kickers. I’m not here to talk about the payroll (too low, and I have a right to complain about eight years of pretty garbage baseball). I’m mostly interested in answering the question who are some free agent relievers who could help the Twins in 2019?As we know from the Addison Reed signing, or the Rockies bullpen in general, relief pitching free agency is a fickle mistress. With all that said, there are a fair few intriguing arms left. Here are a few I think could help the 2019 team while they’re … getting the nucleus right. Nick Vincent ERA 3.99, K/9 8.95, BB/9 2.40, FIP 3.75, xwOBA .279, avg. exit velo 85.0 Vincent is one of my favorite under the radar FA relievers. He had a really solid 2018 with the Mariners, albeit in a ballpark which suits his game. He made his MLB debut in 2012 with the Padres. At 6’0, 185lb, Vincent does not overpower, with a four-seem fastball, cutter, slider, and changeup combination. His fastball averaged just 90.1 mph in 2018. Due to a combination of arm side run and rise, it generates a good amount of swings and misses for a pitch with poor velocity. Vincent finished 2018 17th (out of 310 qualified pitchers) in average exit velocity. His ability to induce weak contact, in addition to what should be a good Twins outfield defense, could set him up well in 2018. He made $2.8 million in 2018. Bud Norris ERA 3.59, K/9 10.46, BB/9 3.28, FIP 3.99, xwOBA .321, Avg. exit velo 86.6 In recent years, Norris has made the transition from OK starter to pretty good reliever, most recently for the St. Louis Cardinals. At 6'0", 215 pounds, Norris has a more stocky, thick body, and it’s reflected in the type of reliever he has become. Norris offers a hard, flat fastball the averages 95 mph which he combines with a cutter, his best pitch. Norris generated an outstanding 58 percent groundball rate on his cutter. Opposing hitters managed just a .117 ISO against this pitch and a wRC+ 64. Norris has retained an encouraging level of consistency in his two seasons of relief work, putting up almost identical K/9, BB/9, FIP, and xFIP between 2017 and 2018. He could slot into the back end of the Twins bullpen as a setup option, or even close games in a pinch. Norris earned $3 million with the Cardinals last season. Brad Brach ERA 3.59, K/9 8.62, BB/9 4.02, FIP 3.67, xwOBA .284, Avg. exit velo 86.8 Brach is an interesting name. He’s been one of the most consistent mid-tier relievers in recent seasons, amassing 4.3 fWAR over his last four seasons (Taylor Rogers was the only Twins reliever to amass over 1.0 in 2018). Brach is a large human, at 6’6" 215 pounds. He has a track record of excellent consistency in his last five seasons, pitching at least 60 innings in each with an ERA never surpassing 3.59. Brach offers a hard fastball which averages 94.5 mph, a slider, and a changeup. Brach’s fastball took a step back last year, losing some velocity and effectiveness. He also has some of the most worrying peripherals, his K/9 decreasing from 10.48 to 8.62 in the last two seasons, while his BB/9 has climbed from 2.85 to 4.02. He made $5.2 million with Atlanta in 2018. Adam Warren ERA 3.14, K/9 9.06, BB/9 3.48, xwOBA .344, avg. exit velo 86.8 The 31-year-old Warren is another solid option for the Twins. Warren has a track record of success, similar to Brach, amassing 4.8 fWAR in 3 excellent seasons with the Yankees. Warren has good, not great velocity to go with a good not great fastball. He generates most of his value from his slider, which, uniquely, he throws slightly more than his fastball, around 32 percent of the time. This is interesting considering the Astros success leveraging the breaking pitches of their staff to increase effectiveness. Warren made $3.3 million with the Mariners in 2018. Despite the Twins failing to land a bigger name FA reliever, there is still plenty of talent available on the FA market. Who would you like to see the Twins sign or trade for in the coming weeks? Click here to view the article

The hot stove is officially burning. With the trade of James Paxton to the Yankees on Monday, the offseason began in earnest. Over the coming weeks, Twins fans will be able to move from reckless speculation to analyzing the moves of their bold front office in addressing their pressing off-season needs. What’s evident in the work of the front office, is that they are not risk averse. With needs in the middle infield, bullpen, corner infield, and the rotation, Falvey and Levine seem intent on addressing them via as many angles as possible, including trades and player development. If there’s a personnel area that lends itself to free agency, it’s another strong relief pitching free agent class.Before adding, it’s important to examine what the organization already has. Last week, I took a look at some encouraging signs from Trevor May and his 2018 breakout. The Twins other primary bullpen asset is Taylor Rogers, an organizational success story who took strides to becoming a borderline top 10 reliever in 2018. If he can build upon his progress in 2019, its possible he can be a top 5 reliever. Bold claim? Let’s dig in. Rogers, a 2012 11th round pick, had occupied a typical LHP role in the Twins bullpen in his first two seasons. He was highly effective against LHH and struggled much more against RHH. There’s nothing unusual about that. In 2018 he took extraordinary strides that led to some truly impressive outcomes: 2018 (MLB rank among qualified relievers) BB% 6.25% (25th) xFIP 2.94 (14th) WAR 1.9 (11th) WPA 2.65 (9th) Rogers provided a set of qualities which, when spiraled together, make for a huge value add; left-handed, excellent control, and a high degree of success in high leverage situations. Similarly to previous seasons however, it was a tale of two halves for Rogers, which hinged around him adding a slider midway through the season. Before digging into Rogers’ new pitch mix, it’s worthwhile to examine his historical performance, particularly with regard to his lefty/righty splits, which usually separate elite left-handed relief pitchers from situational left-handed relievers. Here’s a breakdown of Rogers’ splits against LHH and RHH in his three MLB seasons with the Twins. Download attachment: RogersTable1.png These data are a testament to Rogers development over time. Rogers has gone from being completely ineffective vs. RHH to above average in 2018, posting career best avg., K%, and xFIP against opposite handed hitters. He has always been a highly effective pitcher against LHH. Nevertheless, his K% against LHH spiked dramatically in 2018 (36% K rate overall would put him eighth among MLB relievers, right ahead of Adam Ottavino). That Rogers is building on his strengths in addition to improving his deficiencies is a huge positive for the Twins. Rogers ability to pitch to right handed hitters makes him an extremely valuable commodity. He amassed an fWAR of 1.9 in 2018, good for fifth among left-handed relievers (for anyone who doesn’t appreciate WAR for relievers, read this). Dan Hayes beautifully detailed how Rogers added his slider midway through the 2018 season. Unsurprisingly, this significantly altered Rogers’ pitch mix – detailed below: Download attachment: RogersTable2.png These numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt given that Rogers only began throwing his slider in May, and in earnest approaching and after the All-Star break. Rogers add of a third pitch had a variety of positive impacts on his outputs throughout the season. Most obviously, Rogers slider reduced the load on his fastball, which is a good, if not great pitch. Despite mixing his slider into his repertoire cautiously at first, Rogers, per Hayes, is unyielding in his claim that he only gave up one hit on the pitch all year, a remarkable accomplishment for a new pitch folded in mid-season. The most dramatic impact Rogers made in 2018 was the improvement of his curveball, which went from a below average pitch in 2017, to a pitch worth about eight runs in 2018. Rogers made a variety of mechanical alterations to his curveball in 2018, under the tutelage of then bullpen coach Eddie Guardado. Guardado encouraged Rogers to increase his arm extension upon releasing the pitch, making his mechanics more repeatable. This is born out in Rogers improved command of the pitch in 2018. Download attachment: RogersImage1.png Rogers was consistently able to work his curveball down in the zone with his improved delivery. Rogers was so consistent with his curveball command that he significantly limited opposing hitters’ ability to contact the pitch. O-Contact% measures the frequency with which opposing hitters contact pitches thrown outside the strike zone. In the second half of 2018, Rogers ranked fifth in this metric among all relievers at 40.6% (league average is around 65%). Statcast offers visuals which illustrate Rogers’ command of his breaking pitches. Below are images of all the pitches Rogers threw in two separate outings. On the left, a 2017 outing against the Rangers. On the right, a 2018 outing against Pittsburgh. The blue graphics represent Rogers’ curveball, the yellow, his slider. Notice the tight clustering at the bottom of the zone is his 2018 appearance, compared to more of a spread from his breaking pitches in 2017. Download attachment: RogersImage2.png Rogers' improved command, combined with more horizontal and vertical movement on the pitch in 2018, resulted in an offering with a soul-crushing level of dominance. In 2018 Rogers gave up a .330 OPS, .015 ISO, and .152 wOBA via his curveball, with a 51.5 K%, a truly dominant pitch. As Rogers confidence in his new pitch mix improved, so did his results. After July 28th, he didn’t give up another earned run all season, an incredible run spanning 28 appearances, during which Rogers gave up a .119 avg., .147 wOBA, and a K/BB of 9.7. Extrapolating Rogers second half numbers to a full season is a mouthwatering, if foolish prospect. After the 2018 All-Star break, Rogers was the second most valuable reliever in baseball and raised his K/9 to 11.00. Parsing those numbers out over a full season and Rogers is the fifth most valuable reliever in MLB. While this may be an unrealistic expectation for 2019, Rogers is an incredible success story in player development and a high leverage relief pitching option the Twins should build their bullpen around for the foreseeable future. Click here to view the article

This sounds like a great counter argument you should put in a blog post @TwinsDaily

I distinctly remember watching Trevor May pitch in the spring of 2017 for the Twins vs. Team USA, tuning up for the WBC. May was looking smooth early against a loaded Team USA lineup before being removed with arm discomfort. A torn UCL and 16 months of recovery and rehab later, and May made his return to the Twins major league club in July, after a rehab stint primarily at AAA Rochester. Fast forward a few short months and May has established himself as a high leverage reliever in a Twins bullpen surrounded by uncertainty headed into the offseason.History May is a relative late bloomer and has been around for a long time. The 29-year-old was drafted in the fourth round of the 2008 June amateur draft. May found himself with the Twins after being traded for light-hitting center fielder Ben Revere. May made his big-league debut in 2014, showing solid stuff, but struggling consistently with command and control. Since his debut, there has been a constant question around whether he would feature as a starter or relief pitcher in a franchise particularly starved for the former. Prior to his 2017 injury, May logged around 200 innings for the Twins, typically showing signs of promise with peripheral numbers out-performing more mainstream stats. There were a number of indicators that show that 2018 was the year May made a significant leap forwards. 2018 numbers Here are some numbers which frame May’s 2018 excellence: Download attachment: Screenshot 2018-11-11 at 8.07.51 PM.png Pitch mix and values May offers a four-pitch mix which includes a four-seam fastball (94mph), curve (78mph), slider (87mph), and changeup (86mph). May’s fastball is relatively flat, with slightly above average velocity. He has good downward movement on his curveball and a changeup which generates a large number of ground balls. All this is fairly typical and would not lead one to the conclusion that May would produce the kind of results he did in 2018 (albeit with a limited sample size). This begs the question - how is May getting such outstanding results without truly mind-blowing reliever stuff? May’s July return did not herald any great difference in his pitch mix, save for throwing fewer sliders than previously. May threw his fastball around 60% of the time, his changeup around 10% of the time, and his breaking pitches the remaining 30%, with two thirds of those being his curveball. May’s greatest challenge (there weren’t many) was combatting the longball. In 2018, he had a HR/FB of 18.2% and a HR/9 of 1.42. Neither of these figures are disastrous, but he gave up four homeruns in limited work. In a season in which he had pitched 60 innings, we would have been on pace to give up 12 HR, good for a bottom 15 ranking among qualified relievers. The Twins already have a reliever for whom home runs are an Achilles heel (Trevor Hildenberger), so limiting the long ball will have to be a focus for May in 2019. Looking at May’s heat map of SLG% against his fastball highlights the challenge. He leaves a number of fastballs up and in to LHH and down and in to RHH. May had excellent control in 2018 (1.78 BB/9) but needs to establish better fastball command, as a lack of movement makes it a hittable pitch. Download attachment: Screenshot 2018-11-11 at 8.09.31 PM.png By contrast, a similar heat map of opposing SLG% against May’s curveball shows his ability to cluster location more tightly and the impact resulting from impressive command of a pitch. Download attachment: Screenshot 2018-11-11 at 8.09.43 PM.png Digging into opposing hitters’ outcomes against May’s pitch arsenal help to highlight the leap he took from 2016 to his MLB return in 2018. Download attachment: Screenshot 2018-11-11 at 8.09.52 PM.png May has shown impressive improvement throughout his pitch arsenal, including his fastball, but the primary reason for his breakout in 2018 was developing a high quality breaking and off-speed pitch, both of which have been outrageously effective, albeit in a limited sample. May is an unusual MLB success story, starting to put his considerable talent together in his age 29 season. Examining the tweaks that led to his improved secondary arsenal is key in determining what the Twins might expect from May in 2019. Download attachment: Screenshot 2018-11-11 at 8.10.06 PM.png The chart above shows May’s vertical release points for his primary pitches between 2016 and 2018. There is a noticeable drop in his release point on all three of his primary pitches. May’s release point drop has had a fascinating impact on all three of his primary pitches in 2018. Let’s consider his fastball and changeup first: Download attachment: Screenshot 2018-11-11 at 8.10.21 PM.png May has seen an increase in his GB% on his fastball, leading to less contact and a higher swinging strike percentage. The impact on his changeup was dramatic, with an increase in GB% of almost 45%. May’s changeup is not a newly dominant strikeout pitch, it just consistently generates weak groundball contact. May’s curveball actually resulted in a significant increase in fly balls in 2018. The biggest difference was May’s ability to command it down in the zone, resulting in a huge hike in strikeout percentage from 31% in 2016, to 47.1% in 2018. In short, the curveball became May’s go to strikeout pitch. Whether May can take another step forward in 2019 remains to be seen. It will depend on his ability to maintain incredibly strong 2018 numbers and build on a vastly improved arsenal of secondary pitches, in addition to keeping his fastball inside the yard. What seems to be clear however, is in a bullpen full of question marks, the Twins have found themselves a high leverage reliever to plug in alongside Taylor Rogers. Click here to view the article

From the Kansas City Royals bullpenning their way to the World Series to the Tampa Bay Rays breaking out the opener, reliever usage has become the most revolutionized element of baseball over the past five years. No matter how a manager decides to deploy his relief corps, one thing is certain: You need a good bullpen to win. Earlier, Nick Nelson took stock of the Twins relievers and detailed the importance of building a badass bullpen. Today, we’re going to take a deeper look into the numbers and try to identify some potential upgrades.Where Were They Last Year and Previously? It would behoove the Minnesota Twins to focus on improving their bullpen significantly in advance of 2019. By fWAR, the Twins 2018 bullpen was their best unit (3.0) since the 2013 iteration (5.1). Surprising? Not really. In recent seasons, the Twins have been a perpetual 2-3 fWAR bullpen team. Their off-season acquisitions performed fairly well before they were traded away. The Twins 2018 pen made some significant shifts in cumulative performance reflecting the organizational pitching direction (more velocity, more strikeouts). Consider the following: Download attachment: Bullpen1.png Despite achieving similar overall value, the pen went from almost last to almost top ten in strikeouts. While the Twins bullpen wasn’t a strength in 2018, it was improved. Significantly, if the Twins hadn’t been so remarkably out of contention by the trade deadline and had benefited from a full season of Trevor May, they would have ended up with four top 50 relievers (Taylor Rogers, Ryan Pressly, Trevor May, and Zach Duke). A Note on Elite Bullpens A cumulative fWAR of 4.3 or higher will land you a top 10 bullpen, pretty much every year, pretty much without fail. While the super elite bullpens (Yankees, Astros) typically net an fWAR of 8+ the Twins aren’t far from having a top third pen. Two Elite Options The Twins have two elite options at the end of their pen. For the purposes of this hypothetical, let’s assume two things; Trevor May pitches an entire season, and both he and Taylor Rogers replicate their 2018 performance in 2019. Rogers turned himself into an exceptional bullpen arm in the second half with a tweak to his pitch mix that resulted in the third best FIP in MLB (2.33) and tied him for 10th in MLB in fWAR (1.9 – tied with one Aroldis Chapman). Rogers has outstanding control (2.11 BB/9 – good for 16th in MLB), a solid 9.88 K/9, respectable numbers against RHH, sporting a .220/.267/.377 line against opposite-handed hitters. In short, Rogers is an ideal candidate for all high leverage situations in which the Twins need a LHP. May was another spectacular surprise. After returning from TJ surgery, May initially struggled at AAA. When he finally made it back to the Twins, May put up 0.6 fWAR in just 24.1 IP. May had a ridiculous K/9 (13.32 – good for 11th in MLB among relievers who threw at least 20 innings). May also had the 11th best swinging strike rate (16.4%). Over a full season of work, he gives the Twins pen another 1.5 fWAR pitcher, a right handed, high leverage bullpen option (who should not be solely tied down to a ninth inning role). What They Need While the Twins have two great options at the back end of the pen, they have little else. Trevor Hildenberger regressed to a replacement level pitcher in 2018 (although there was a one run differential between his ERA and FIP, and a 1.6 run differential between his ERA and xFIP). All the aforementioned top 10 bullpens from the last few years of MLB play have one thing in common: nine to 10 guys who put up some positive value (I’m using a fWAR of 0.2 or higher as my proxy here), in other words, depth. The Twins had only seven such pitchers last year, including Duke, Pressly, Fernando Rodney, Oliver Drake, and Kohl Stewart (who amassed some of his value in a unique bullpen role). After those seven, the Twins essentially had a slew of replacement level guys (Andrew Vasquez in limited work, Hildy, John Curtiss), or guys who amassed negative value (Addison Reed, Matt Magill, Tyler Duffey, Alan Busenitz), almost all of who suffered from problematic home run rates (a pain point for the Twins pen in general). The Twins could use one more excellent bullpen piece, but mostly, they need some solid depth (part of the reason not looking at Nick Anderson or Jake Reed at the end of last season was so criminal). Some Free Agent Options Whom might the Twins target? As you might expect in a particularly juicy free agent year, the relief pitching market is resplendent with options. To highlight some of these, I filtered through FA relief pitchers who are right-handed, assuming that between the elite Rogers, and the replacement level Moya, the Twins are about set with left-handed relievers. For the purposes of outlining some options, I also left out pitchers who have options remaining, like Nate Jones, Pedro Strop, Brandon Kintzler, in addition to pitchers I felt were way out of the Twins reach, like Craig Kimbrel (probably should have left Ottavino off too). Download attachment: Bullpen2.png The Twins have a ton of options for upgrading their pen, including internal options, trade, or targeting upgrades through free agency. What are your thoughts on the bullpen heading into 2019? Who would you pursue in free agency if you were running the front office? Click here to view the article

Oct. 3, 2016 is a significant date in Minnesota Twins history. The date that Derek Falvey was chosen to lead the Twins into a new organizational era was 22 years after Terry Ryan succeeded Andy MacPhail when the former GM departed for the Chicago Cubs. Ryan had enjoyed an outstanding run as GM between 2002-07, before stepping down temporarily to be replaced by Bill Smith. After his return in 2011, Ryan’s Twins never managed to reestablish their success, falling to 90-loss season after 90-loss season. The Twins had been left behind. The defense-first, pitch-to-contact, strike-throwing paradigm of the early 2000s team had transformed from an organizational calling card, to another example of how outmoded their approach had become.Arrival and reputations Falvey was hired away from the Cleveland organization. He came up as an international scout before occupying a variety of roles in baseball operations. In his time in Cleveland, Falvey developed a reputation as a keen baseball mind with an eye for pitching in an organization featuring Carlos Carrasco and Corey Kluber, two of the top 15 starting pitchers in baseball. When Cleveland acquired Kluber from the Padres, he was not among the organizations top 30 prospects. Kluber transformed from a Double-A pitcher to a Cy Young winner in four years, and has continued to dominate to the tune of 28.9 fWAR since the beginning of the 2014 season. Thad Levine came to the Twins from the Texas Rangers, part of a formidable front office duo with GM Jon Daniels for 11 seasons. Levine, similarly to Falvey, oversaw Texas’ international scouting department, assembling one of the stronger systems in the majors (until the Rangers dismantled it in a variety of trades in their window of contention). The duo’s arrival came with a wave of excitement. They were young, modern, analytical. A welcome change of pace for a Twins organization badly in need of a facelift. Dream start and June draft Falvey and Lavine stumbled into a dream scenario for any new front office: incredibly low expectations and a No. 1 overall pick. They took over an organization coming off a 103-loss season with a promising core of young players breaking into the majors. Approaching the June draft, there was no consensus No. 1, although Hunter Greene was heavily favored. High school lefty MacKenzie Gore, two-way college star Brendan McKay, and Vanderbilt ace Kyle Wright were also in the mix. Instead, the new front office duo selected Royce Lewis, a wiry high school SS out of California, with endless tools and a makeup which drew rave reviews. Lewis agreed to sign under slot, Falvey and Levine spent their savings on Blayne Enlow, a HS pitcher committed to LSU, sporting one of the best curveballs in the draft. Lewis, to date, has looked every part the No. 1 overall pick. In his second professional season, he already made it to High-A Fort Myers, and appears to be on track to becoming a superstar. The addition of Enlow followed a recent trend of teams signing their top picks under slot to add higher-level talent at the top of their draft boards. While Enlow’s performance has been slightly underwhelming so far, he’s still just 19. More important, it’s indicative of a new direction and approach by the front office, one predicated on buying as many proverbial lottery tickets as possible, an approach that foreshadowed the trade deadline fire-sale the Twins hoped they would not have to engage in at the 2018 trade deadline. The Twins also added college bat Brent Rooker in the 2017 draft. The former college slugger bashed 22 home runs and sported a wRC+ of 124 at Double A, and looks set to make his big-league debut in the near future. Smart hires Upon taking the reigns at Target Field, Falvey began the task of beefing up the Twins front office and analytics department, adding heavy hitter after heavy hitter to the Twins front office. New hires included Daniel Adler (Director of Baseball Operations), Josh Kalk (Senior Analyst, Baseball Research and Development), former editor in chief of Baseball America John Manuel, and supreme techno-nerd Hans Van Slooten (most famous previously for his work in developing the Baseball Reference interface). It’s a fascinating list of well-known sporting experts, and while it’s impossible to know the impact and synergy their work brings to the organization, it made another prong of Falvey’s plan crystal clear: Attract as many of the smartest minds as possible to the organization to build institutional knowledge and innovation. Offseason of opportunity After a surprise 2017 postseason berth in which the Yankees (as they are wont to do) pulled the Twins playoff ejector seat button, Minnesota had the type of active offseason that rendered even the most curmudgeonly fan unable to complain about the ‘cheap Pohlads’ any longer. In the winter prior to the 2018 season, the Twins added Addison Reed, Zach Duke, Fernando Rodney, Logan Morrison, and Lance Lynn to the club. For a Twins team in need of bullpen stability, extra pop, and a reliable mid-rotation starter, fans were understandably excited, and rightly so. It appeared the front office had capitalized on a slow moving free agent market by signing a number of high quality additions to short-term commitments. This premise of course, was predicated on their free agent acquisitions replicating (or coming close to) their 2017 performances. Rodney and Duke provided solid value, while Lynn, Morrison and Reed struggled in 2018, with the latter two combining for a -1.0 fWAR. With the benefit of hindsight, the Twins had a high-quality offseason, making additions that should have boosted the performance of the club more significantly. The willingness of the front office to be opportunistic in a slow market was a refreshing change of pace for Twins fans used to tuning out of free agent signing during the winter months. Roster management Boy, has this conversation become more interesting over the last week. Through the 2018 season, the front office has appeared to have an approach to the management of the big-league roster that does not mirror the progressiveness with which they operate the rest of the organization. They have often favored playing time and roster spots for veterans with little value (Matt Belisle) over evaluating existing organizational talent in the higher levels of the Twins minor league affiliates. This has been underscored in September. Nick Anderson has pitched 60 innings for AAA Rochester this season, in that time, he has accrued 88 Ks and an xFIP of 2.49. No September callup. Jake Reed put together a 9.44 K/9 and 2.96 FIP in 47.2 innings for Rochester this season. No September callup. The point here is not that Anderson or Reed are slam dunk big league options for the Twins, more that it seems preferable to determine (or begin to determine) their big-league ceiling in a lost season, as opposed to a new one in 2019. Why sacrifice an initial opportunity for experience at the major league level for veterans like Belisle who don’t figure to be in the Twins plans in 2019 and beyond? The news that Byron Buxton was not to be among the Twins September callups was in stark contrast to the previous actions of a front office grounded in a strong organizational direction and attempting to foster its core of talented young players. While it’s true that in Sano and Buxton, the Twins still have unproven quantities between injuries and poor performance, the front office took advantage of Buxton’s injury-plagued 2018 to manipulate an extra year of service time from their young center fielder. Thad Levine essentially admitted the front office play in a later interview, in which he described a need to ‘make amends’ to Buxton. If such a need exists, there’s a strong chance you screwed someone over. That’s a tremendous risk to take with Buxton himself, and given the fact that exactly none of the Twins young players are signed to long term extensions. Draft part two The Twins found themselves in a different position entering the 2018 draft. After a surprise playoff berth, Minnesota owned the 20th pick. The Twins elected to select another powerful college bat, adding recent College World Series champ Trevor Larnach of Oregon State. Minnesota followed that selection up with college catcher Ryan Jeffers, a player many analysts felt was over-drafted at 59 overall by the Twins. Both hitters have thrived at two professional levels in 2018. Larnach has managed a .303/.390/.500 line with five HR and 14 more XBH in his first 42 professional games. Jeffers has also thrived, with a .344/.444/.502 line with seven HR in his first 64 professional games. Both selections seem to be promising hitters moving through the Twins MiLB system at pace. Trade deadline With the Twins out of contention approaching the trade deadline, the front office wisely began to sell off impending free agents to acquire more talent in an already deep farm system. Falvey and Levine traded away Eduardo Escobar, Ryan Pressly, Brian Dozier, Lance Lynn, Zach Duke, and later, Fernando Rodney. While certain trades (like Dozier) resulted in a predictably unexciting return, the Twins netted some genuinely exciting prospects, particularly Jhoan Duran from the Diamondbacks, and Jorge Alcala from the Astros. Both are high velocity arms, Duran struck out 115 in 100 2/3 MiLB innings in 2018, while Alcala struck out 104 in 99 1/3 IP. The Twins didn’t have a huge amount of trade deadline leverage, so adding five prospects to their top 30 (MLB.com) seems like a solid return Extensions and organizational direction While the front office has worked hard to amass significant depth of talent throughout the minor leagues, they will undoubtedly be evaluated by their ability (or not) to lock up some of their outstanding young players. Throughout the winter, it was reported they offered extensions to some combination of Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, and Berrios. While their failure to sign any of them thus far is not a disaster, one wonders whether the Buxton fiasco will adversely impact their ability to do so. It’s worth remembering that not all front office decisions are created equal. Few, for example, have more significance for the future of the organization than their number one overall pick in 2017. In terms of simple talent acquisition, the front office has done an outstanding job through the draft, trade deadline, and even leveraging their international spending money creatively. The front office also appears to have a clearer organizational direction, acquiring lots of high velocity arm talent and high-power upside college bats. While Twins fans can be excited by these developments, their clumsy handling of Byron Buxton casts some doubt on their ability to lock up a core central to the Twins maintaining an extended window of contention. Click here to view the article

It’s been a much more enjoyable homestand for the Twins heading into the All-Star break. A 9-2 record against the inept Royals and Orioles and the solid Rays have muddied the waters surrounding the Twins inevitable sell-off ever so slightly. It’s still highly unlikely the Twins make significant noise in the second half, mostly because their margin for error is now so small. Barring a herculean effort in head-to-head games against Cleveland, Twins fans won’t be looking back on 2018 with the same sepia toned glasses of 2017.I argued in my notes on a hypothetical plan for the Twins’ second half that they need to look inward at their talent pool to assess what they have and what they need going forwards. There are three prime examples of the necessity of this practice; Niko Goodrum, Randy Rosario, and Dereck Rodriguez. Niko Goodrum was the Twins second-round pick in 2010. After grinding for seven plus seasons in MiLB, he finally broke into the majors last season with the Twins at age 25. Goodrum received only 18 PA for Minnesota before finding his way onto the Tigers roster in 2018. While it seemed Goodrum was blocked in Minnesota as a middle infielder by Brian Dozier, Jorge Polanco and Ehire Adrianza, he has performed admirably with Detroit, putting together a solid .250/.319/.456 line with a .206 ISO. Goodrum’s isolated power would put him fourth on the Twins, behind only Jake Cave, Eddie Rosario and Eduardo Escobar. Crucially, he’s a RH bat in a very LH dominant lineup, and might have found significant ABs at DH this year with Miguel Sano in Single A, and Logan Morrison a non-contributor. Goodrum is currently a one-win player with Detroit (fWAR) and on his way to a solid first season in the majors. Randy Rosario pitched just 2 1/3 innings with the Twins, struggling mightily in doing so. Rosario was picked up by the Cubs and has logged close to 30 innings for them this year, putting together an impressive 1.95 ERA and stranding an improbable 94 percent of base runners. I will say that Rosario’s peripheral numbers look far less impressive. It seems that early in 2018 he has been extremely lucky. It would appear that he is due for a fairly significant regression with the Cubs in the second half, but with lefty pitchers in such short supply, would it not have served the Twins to take a longer look? Dereck Rodriguez (son of Pudge) put together strong numbers as a starting pitcher throughout his time in the Twins minor league system. He was simply blocked from an opportunity with the Twins and found his way into the Giants organization. In seven starts and some relief work with the Giants, Rodriguez has pitched close to 50 innings to the tune of a 2.89 ERA (3.42 FIP) is striking out a solid 7.14 K/9 and is worth 1.0 fWAR in his limited time. Clearly the Giants see something in Rodriguez the Twins did not, it’s just unfortunate that there are so many players who have left the Twins organization without getting a big league opportunity, who seem to be seizing it elsewhere. There’re plenty of players who would also have made good examples for this article. Aaron Hicks is not a good example. He’s actually a great example of the Twins being patient with a young hitter and giving him ample opportunities at the plate. He just figured it out after the Twins moved on. The Twins gave Hicks 928 plate appearances in Minnesota, in which he put together a 2.5 fWAR. In 361 2018 plate appearances with the Yankees, he already has a 3.3 fWAR. Sometimes things just don’t work out in your favor. With regard to Goodrum, Rosario and Rodriguez, I’m not saying they should have kept one, two, or all of them. Teams don’t always have the luxury of being able to give marginal hitters a few hundred plate appearances, marginal relievers forty major league innings, or marginal starters a five start stretch to prove their worth (particularly in a playoff race in 2017). My point is simply when you do have the opportunity, you should seize it. It seems highly likely the Twins will have that opportunity in the second half of 2018. Moving into 2019. The Twins will likely have core starting pitching arms of Berrios, Gibson, Romero and Odorizzi. They should establish if Aaron Slegers, Zach Littell, Adalberto Mejia, Stephen Gonsalves, or even Trevor May is well positioned to occupy a back end role in 2019. Additionally, they should establish their pecking order for sixth, seventh,and eighth starters (form and health aside) who will inevitably be called on over the course of a long season. Similarly, with their bullpen. Luke Bard, John Curtiss, Gabriel Moya, Jake Reed and Alan Busenitz should all receive some consistent innings, over a period of time without interruption. If even two of this group can be reliable bullpen arms, the front office can focus on other areas this coming winter. It might feel like a long second half, so let’s see what we have, and what we need. Click here to view the article

Twins twitter imploded this week. Finally transitioning from the mantra of all we need is the offense to click, to the season is over. It is. The Twins are 11.5 games back of an improving Cleveland team which will win what is shaping up to be the worst division since realignment in 1994. Cleveland could conceivably win the AL Central by 25 games. The Twins are 18 games back of the second wild card and look set for their sixth 90-loss season in the last eight. The Twins should enter the second half of the season with a single, pointed, and uniform organizational goal: To answer the questions: What do we have? and What do we need?Seth Stohs posed an interesting question on Twitter this week, asking Twins fans how to proportionally assign blame for the current state of the team between injuries/suspensions, player performance, front office, and managing. A stock practice of Twins fans and writers has been to build the term ‘young, talented core’ into recent Twins lexicon. Young and talented they still are, but between injuries (Buxton, Sano), suspensions (Polanco), and under performance (Kepler) it’s hard for fans to be confident that the young troupe that formed the backbone of the epic stretch run in 2018 can replicate the same level of success with consistency, whether due to performance or an inability to stay on the field. With that in mind, here are some moves the Twins might make to find out what they have and what they need, heading into 2019. Trade Deadline There has been ample speculation on what the Twins should do at the deadline. I would be open to moving the following players: Lance Lynn – one year signing. Has been pretty ineffective, will net a minimal return Logan Morrison – see above. Fernando Rodney/Zach Duke – One year bullpen signings who can help contenders. They should both be moved. Eduardo Escobar – I love Escobar, if the price is right, I would move him, unless the Twins are confident of signing him to an extension or plan to give him a qualifying offer. Brian Dozier – Expiring contract. Major disappointment who typically surges in the second half. Sell low option. Catcher Immediately DFA Brian Wilson, he is currently serving no purpose on the team. The organizational strategy at catcher currently is bizarre. Garver has hit well over the last month but is still on a 60-40 time share with Wilson. Is there reticence for Garver to catch over concerns about his defense? Possibly. The only way the Twins will figure out if Garver can be a mainstay at catcher is to play him. Since Willians Astudillo has been promoted he’s played almost every position except catcher. This suggests that despite his legend growing from his no-look pick off in spring training, the Twins don’t see him as a viable option at catcher. If that’s true, find an alternative backup for Garver who plays every third night. Alternatively, keep Wilson if you want a higher draft pick. Infield The infield seems one of the murkiest positional groups with not a ton of big league-ready prospects for the second half of 2018. Jorge Polanco is back after an 80 game PED suspension. His second half performance will be worth watching closely to see if he can replicate his team-sparking heroics from the second half of 2017, in which he put together a .293/.359/.511 line with a 128 wRC+. Miguel Sano should be back with the Twins as soon as he figures his swing out, however long that takes. The Twins need to ensure that Sano is a viable long-term part of their big league plans moving into 2019. After a wretched start, Ehire Adrianza has put up decent production at the plate and assuming his relatively swift return from a hamstring injury, is showing himself to be a consistent SS for the Twins (1 fWAR 2017, 0.5 fWAR 2018). If Escobar and Dozier are moved, Adrianza will likely play every day in the second half. He’s a solid utility infielder for the Twins moving forward. A decent number of people have been calling for Nick Gordon from AAA Rochester. While Gordon still seems on track to be a solid every-day contributor, he’s struggled at AAA, managing a .233/.254/.331 line with a decreasing walk rate, increasing strikeout rate, and wRC+ of 59. None of this is incredibly surprising or unusual for a minor league hitter moving up a rung. If he turns it around and looks ready, the Twins should give him a shot. If not, there is no need to rush him. He has historically struggled in the minors in the second half of the season after getting off to torrid starts. Outfield Eddie Rosario has been an All-Star for the Twins in the first half of the season, nothing much to add here. As soon as Byron Buxton begins hitting with consistency at Rochester, he should be back with the Twins. Buxton’s young career has been marred by injuries thus far. It’s much too early to give up on a player with his ability. The Twins will want him to get as many at-bats as possible in the second half. Jake Cave has shown flashes of power and some solid play in CF since he has been given the nod over Pirates of the Caribbean extra Ryan LaMarre. Cave should see an extended run in the second half as he has the skill set to function as a backup outfielder for the Twins in 2019 and beyond. Max Kepler is an interesting conundrum for the Twins. Having been up with the team full time since 2016, he has put up a wRC+ of 93 (2016), 92 (2017), and 86 (2018). Kepler is still young at 25, but there’s a decent chance he turns out to be a slightly less than average MLB hitter at this point. He’s still valuable, given his above-average play in right field and typically solidly base-running (with the exception of 2018, in which every Twin has forgotten how to run the bases). Kepler once seemed like a lock for an extension, now, I’m not so sure. LaMonte Wade and Zack Granite are both worth consideration for major league playing time. Granite has struggled significantly this season. Wade has a very intriguing skill set, carrying an outstanding BB% throughout his minor league career. Currently at AAA Rochester, Wade has a .269/.404/.447 batting line with a wRC+ 145. His AAA OBP, SLG, and wRC+ are extremely consistent with his numbers throughout his minor league career. The Twins rank 23rd in MLB in OBP (.308), so giving Wade a chance to see if he can get on base at the highest level seems worthwhile. Starters Fernando Romero should be back with the Twins in the second half, albeit with an innings limit. Anyone concerned with Romero’s recent big-league mediocrity should be reminded of the 58 innings Jose Berrios threw in 2016 to the tune of an 8.02 ERA, 6.20 FIP, and 5.40 BB/9. Romero has looked good overall with the Twins this year. The team should do whatever it can to get him more major league experience. Ervin Santana may return to the team in the second half of the season. Whether he does or does not, he will not be a Twin in 2019. Assuming Lance Lynn is traded (and possibly Kyle Gibson), the Twins will have an open rotation spot for portions of the second half of the season. The Twins should give Zack Littell, Adalberto Mejia, Stephen Gonsalves, and Aaron Slegers whatever unfilled starts remain in the second half and see who rises to the occasion. You’d like to think the Twins have two back end starters in this group to compeiment Berrios, Romero and Odorizzi in 2019. Bullpen DFA Matt Belisle immediately. He will not contribute to the Twins in 2019 and does not help you assess your current talent or future needs. Assuming the Twins trade Fernando Rodney and Zach Duke, they will have at least 2-3 bullpen spots to play with in the second half. I’d move Pressley into the closer role. Despite a recent rocky stretch, he has a FIP of 3.08, a K/9 of 13.28, and until recently, looked to be in contention for an All-Star spot. Continue to use Hildenberger and Reed in higher leverage situations (when Reed is back on track). In 2014, the Twins drafted a bullpen between rounds 2-5. The organization has a slew of AAA arms they need to assess to determine if they can help the big league pen moving forwards. John Curtiss, Jake Reed, Luke Bard, Alan Busenitz, and Gabriel Moya should all see significant big league time in the second half of the season. All of these names have at least some upside, and have either been blocked from the majors, or given 4-5 innings with the Twins at a time, which is no way to establish what they are capable of at the big league level. September Call-Ups The Twins should use September call-ups to give some of their prospects some major league experience. Potentially, Nick Gordon and Brent Rooker are names which stand out here. After a slow start, Rooker is heating up. He’s now hit 14 HR, and slugged .503 at AA Chattanooga, with a 127 wRC+. If he keeps mashing in the second half, the Twins should get a look at their future LF/1B/DH. Anyone who has a chance to make the big league club in 2019 should get a shot this fall with the Twins, hopefully decreasing their need to adjust when they are called up permanently. Extensions The final implication for the Twins 2018 second half is extensions. Prior to the 2018 season, it could have been argued that Rosario, Kepler, Buxton, Sano and Berrios were all extension candidates. Where would you focus your attention now? I would attempt to lock up Rosario and Berrios, who have both excelled this season, in addition to Buxton as a ‘buy low’ option on an extension. It remains to be seen where the Twins will end up this season. After an incredibly disappointing first half of 2018, it’s time to put this year behind us, and look toward 2019 and beyond. What are the moves you think the Twins should make at the deadline? Who are players in the minors you would most like to see in the second half of 2018? Who are the players in the Twins young core you’d like to see the organization extend? Click here to view the article

Nick Nelson wrote an excellent article asking if Paul Molitor is the right man to take the Twins to the next level. I already have my answer, it’s no. For the purposes of this discussion though, I’ll ask a different question: Was Torey Lovullo better suited to lead this Twins organization, given its own unique context, to consistent relevance? I think the answer is yes."Now, if we could just find some offense." I’ve seen this evergreen sentiment regarding the Twins frustratingly up and down play since April. 2018 has been a season of irritation for Twins fans, characterized by an anemic offense, a bullpen which has been solid but ineffective in the most critical situations, and comical base-running on a daily basis. Molitor won Manager of the Year in 2017 after a historically impressive second half from the Twins offense. Let’s reground ourselves in some of those numbers: Download attachment: Molitor1.png If we look at Molitor’s record as manager outside this sliver of a season, it’s pretty bleak. Download attachment: Molitor2.png It might seem like I’m cherry picking here by leaving out August-October of 2017. Two points to counter that argument: firstly, how often does your team offense click enough to lead every important offensive category as a team, over a two month stretch? Secondly, Molitor’s Twins teams do not have a consistent track record of being competitive. This brings us to the really challenging aspects of evaluating team, organizations, and roles - culture and climate. It’s impossible to measure or begin to assess Molitor’s true impact on the Twins, because the nature of teams and organizations is that the problems and challenges they are attempting to overcome are adaptive, not technical. What we can do, is look at indicators of Molitor’s impact. The best place to start is on the field. Matt Magill was called up to the Twins at the end of April. Since then, he’s put up solid numbers in limited relief work for the Twins, managing a K/9 of 8.04 and BB/9 of 1.29. While Magill’s 2.45 ERA doesn’t match his 3.92 FIP, he’s at worst, an average MLB reliever. Since being called up, Magill has made 15 further appearances for the Twins. Ryan Pressly and Addison Reed, have made 51 combined appearances in that time, with decreasing effectiveness. Molitor had a similar issue with Trevor Hildenberger in 2017, pitching him almost nightly until his effectiveness diminished. The Twins are not playing in one run games on a nightly basis, so why not spread out the work load more? Another aspect of Molitor’s vaunted baseball mind was his technical skill as a base-runner. The Twins are not a base-stealing team in 2018, particularly with no Byron Buxton. They only have 25 stolen bases (league average is 39). They are however, second in pickoffs with 12, with only four other major league teams having more than 7. There is no excuse for being picked off regularly, particularly for a team who isn’t really trying to run in the first place. The most popular counter argument to these ‘team issues’ is to ground them in individual player execution as opposed to managerial impact (particularly base running). This where I think Molitor has a higher degree of culpability than most. While he can’t make the players execute, if he can’t compel their performance towards competence, what is his use and roll? In the business world, the primary work of leaders is to manage through others, in this case, players and coaches. Sometimes the best performers are the worst teachers, and Molitor and his coaches seem to have had a challenging time compelling the 2018 Twins team towards consistent, high level execution. This brings us to Lovullo, the current manager of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Lovullo has presided over his own turnaround in Phoenix, where he won 2017 NL MOY after reversing the Diamondbacks 69-93 record in 2016 to 93-69 in 2017. Currently, the 2018 Diamondback sit in first place at 45-34, in spite of franchise player Paul Goldschmidt getting off to a slow start and their number one starter, Robbie Ray, being sidelined for most of the season with an oblique strain. Lovullo has quickly become known through major league baseball for embracing the analytical side of the game. While Molitor is often thought of as a great baseball mind, modern analytic trends tend to show up less in his decision making, such as a lineup constructed around Brian Dozier hitting leadoff and Joe Mauer hitting second in recent history (although the two recently flip-flopped positions). More importantly, Lovullo has become known for a strong culture of clear and transparent communication with his players since taking on the role. Upon taking the job, Lovullo expressed some of his initial organizational goals ‘Establishing a culture of togetherness and family and unity was the most important thing to me’. The culture is not simply reflected in Lovullo’s own thoughts, but also those of his players. Zack Godley said of Lovullo ‘We just really enjoy playing for him. I think the trust he puts in us allows us to put the trust in him as well.’ While these reflections may sound like a trite, sports movie cliché, I think they are particularly important given the context of the Twins organization. The current Minnesota team has a core of talented young players. What’s typically true about young teams is that highs are higher and lows are lower. There is often a need for more intentional and vocal leadership on such teams. I find myself wondering increasingly if Lovullo was a better contextual fit with the Twins than Molitor was. The final thought I have is a wondering. Over the last few seasons, the Twins have brought in several players whose strengths have fallen under the mantle of ‘clubhouse leader’. Matt Belisle is a perfect example of this. He has no business being on the Twins roster with Busenitz, Duffey, Curtiss, Bard, Moya, and Reed all offering more upside. If the Twins are in such dire need of clubhouse leadership then both their veteran players, and Molitor himself, have a lot to answer for. Click here to view the article

Spending time with my in-laws by choice. The Minnesota Twins stealing a base. Paul Molitor using Matt Magill out of the Twins bullpen. These are all things which happen sparingly. But why? Magill has been excellent for the Twins bullpen since his promotion in April. So who is Matt Magill? What does he throw? Is his success sustainable? If it is, why hasn’t another major league team helped him figure it out?Magill was a late selection of the Los Angeles Dodgers (Round 31, pick 15) in the 2008 June Amateur Draft out of Royal HS. Magill’s high school scouting report has pretty typical of a high school pitching prospect: "Magill has a tall, projectable frame. His fastball sit in the 88-90 mph range, but it’s straight and hittable when left up in the zone. He’ll need to develop sink and movement to succeed with his fastball at higher levels." (Courtesy of Baseball America). After being drafted, Magill progressed steadily through the Dodgers organization, being groomed as a starter. His minor league success peaked with his 2012 season at AA Chattanooga. That season, he put up a 3.45 ERA in 146+ IP, while striking out 168. Magill made his major league debut with the Dodgers in 2013, with a disastrous six game stretch which produced a 6.51 ERA and a BB/9 of 9.11. Magill bounced around at various levels of the minor leagues in the years following, making brief major league stops with Cincinnati and spending time in the Padres organization. Magill began the 2018 season as a 28-year-old at AAA Rochester, before getting the call to Minnesota in late April. Magill is off to a strong start as a Twin. Through 23.2 IP (as of Wednesday night) he has produced the following: Download attachment: MagillChart.png Magill has a strange set of numbers to examine. He doesn’t fit a particular mold. He’s no longer producing the high strikeout numbers he did as a prospect early in his career. He also has a low ground ball rate of just 36%. Magill is 10th in BB/9 among major league relievers who have thrown at least 20 innings and has the 15th lowest BaBIP of pitchers in MLB. Finally, he has stranded 98.9% of runners on base, a figure tied for the major league lead with recently traded former Royals closer Kelvin Herrera. Magill’s BaBIP and LOB% seem unsustainable, but his SIERA is indicative that he has produced consistently strong performances for the Twins. SIERA (skill-interactive ERA) is a development from FIP and xFIP which attempts to weight the various reasons pitchers are successful or unsuccessful. Magill’s 2018 SIERA is 3.67, a figure that lands him in between the range of above average (3.75) and great (3.25) according to FanGraphs. So what does Magill do on the mound and how has he established some MLB stability after struggling to do so previously in his career? Magill has a difficult pitch mix to evaluate, because his major league sample is so small it’s still developing. Magill can throw a four-seam fastball, sinker, cutter, curveball, slider and changeup. He predominantly uses his four-seam, slider, and cutter, with an occasional changeup mixed in. Remember Magill’s big, projectable frame? The move from starter to reliever has allowed him to add a little extra to his fastball, his average velocity when he first reached the majors in 2013 sat between 90-92 mph, in 2018, it has averaged 95 mph. The final development Magill has made which has contributed to his success, is the development of his cutter. In Magill’s previous stints in the major, he threw his cutter between 6-11% of the time. In the last few months with Minnesota, he has used it roughly 22% of the time. Magill’s cutter has heavy sink and sweep to it. Consider this, between Magill’s fastball (with much more refined control) and his cutter, Magill allowed an opposing wRC+ of 185 in 2013, 285 in 2016, and just 45 in 2018. Magill might be due for some regression in the near future, but why Molitor refuses to spread the work load and ease the burden on Addison Reed, Ryan Pressly, and Trevor Hildenberger is a mystery. Click here to view the article

Twins fans were thrilled when they signed Addison Reed this offseason on a two year deal worth approximately $16 million. Given the nature of the free agent relief pitching market in recent years, the Reed signing seemed not only to be a great get for the Twins, but a significant bargain given the deals that Rockies handed out to Bryan Shaw, Greg Holland and Jake McGee. The Twins, it seemed, had obtained a reliable reliever with a proven track record who could take on a high workload of high leverage innings and support Fernando Rodney at the back end of the bullpen.Wednesday night in Detroit was the culmination of a rough few weeks for Reed. Over his last 15 appearances (13.2 innings), he’s held a 5.27 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, and surrendered some key leads. Despite his season-long numbers being relatively in line with his career figures, any kind of digging into Reed’s numbers this season lead to an inevitable conclusion: he’s in rapid decline. Peripheral Stats Looking at the last 3 years lead to some worrying conclusions about Reed’s early season form with the Twins. Download attachment: ReedGraphic.png It’s worth pointing out that Reed and Ryan Pressly have been significantly over-worked by Paul Molitor this season in a similar fashion to Trevor Hildenberger in 2017. Both have taken significant steps backwards in the past few weeks. While Pressly’s peripheral numbers line up almost exactly with his current performance, the same cannot be said for Reed. While overuse is certainly a factor to consider with Reed, his effectiveness is also quite clearly decreasing. Reed has never been a ground ball pitcher, but everything he throws this year is getting hit in the air, with an increasing fly ball and HR rate, it has led to him being less effective, and more noticeably, in high leverage situations. Let’s talk about WPA for a second. No it’s not a bougie craft beer, win probability added measures how much a given player increases or decreases their team's probability of winning. Reed has been especially brutal in high leverage situations. His figure of -0.62 is already two thirds of a win below league average. He has the 21st worst WPA in the entire league, right behind Blaine Boyer of the Royals (11.60 ERA). That is a problem for a pitcher Molitor frequently relies on as his ‘eighth inning guy’ who is constantly pitching in high leverage situations with the game on the line. Velocity Reed’s velocity has also been in steady decline over the last few years. In the last 3 years, Reed’s average fastball velocity has fallen from 93.2 mph (2016), to 92.8 mph (2017), to 91.8 mph (2018). While velocity isn’t everything, consider this; Reed’s fastball was worth 12.9 runs above average in 2017, through roughly one third of the season in 2018, it’s worth 0.5 runs above average. Reed’s decline in velocity, combined with a decreasing number of ground balls and no Byron Buxton, is hurting Reed’s 2018 effectiveness significantly. Moving Forwards It’s fair to say I’m picking on Reed in the middle of a rough patch. It’s also true that a stagnant Twins offense could have reduced his disappointing WPA by scoring more freely (or at all) against sub-standard opposing pitchers. The Twins bullpen in general has been poor in high leverage situations (not aided by very little margin for error). Moving forward I’d argue that Trevor Hildenberger should be pitching in as many close and late situations as possible. He the Twins’ leader in WPA at 0.37 (68th best in the league). Since struggling in the first month of the season, Hildy has been rolling. In May and June, he’s given up a .347 SLG and 3 ER in 20.2 IP. Reed can undoubtedly be effective contributor for the Twins over the next season and a half, but Minnesota would do well to move him to a less impactful spot in a bullpen which this year has very little margin for error. Click here to view the article

How could we have all been so wrong? Riding a wave of offseason optimism into the beginning of 2018, Twins fans wouldn’t have been unreasonable to be confident about the state of their team's young offensive core, on the back of an incredible second half of 2017 resplendent with breakout performances.Let’s take a trip down memory lane to a better time. Here’s a look at some key offensive metrics in the final few months of 2017 compared to the beginning of this season: Download attachment: Comp.png So here’s the thing. It’s possible we may have seen the best two-month stretch from a Twins offense we will see, like, ever. Partial exaggeration aside, how often does your team lead the league in almost every offensive category for any significant length of time with so many young players experiencing simultaneous breakouts and hot streaks? Most Twins fans thought the offense would regress from its stratospheric ascent. In spite of this, almost no one would have predicted that they would be a bottom 5-10 offense. So what has gone wrong for the offense? What has worked? And what can we expect moving forwards? Outfield Excellence There has been plenty to be excited about for Twins fan so far. Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler have held the offense up with solid performances across the board. Despite Rosario looking like he was playing fruit ninja at the plate in the first week or so of the season, he has been outstanding ever since. Through Tuesday, Rosario has put together a .302/.325/.523 line, with a truly insane 3.4% BB% and a wRC+ of 126. Rosario has picked up where he left off in 2017 and is playing at a borderline All-Star level. Rosario is a top 40 player in league by wOBA (.360). If he had even moderate plate discipline, his offensive value would be enormous. Even so, among outfielders, Rosario ranks 16th in the league in fWAR at 1.4. This appears to be who he is as a hitter, remarkable considering some were calling for him to be traded or released in favor of Zack Granite after a poor beginning to 2017. Did you know Max Kepler is 6’4? I don’t think I knew Max Kepler is 6’4. Kepler has taken a massive step forward in 2018. After being tipped to be a potential breakout candidate preseason by the likes of Keith Law, Kepler has significantly improved his approach against lefties. In 2017, Kepler was dire against lefties. He put together a .152/.213/.240 line with a 30 K%, a 5.1 BB%, and a wRC+ of 16. Yikes. Fast forward to 2018 and Kepler has taken around half the ABs he took against lefties in 2017, with striking results. Kepler has put together a staggering .353/.414/.725 line with a 13 K%, 10 BB%, and 11 extra base hits. Kepler leads the league as a LHH vs LHP in SLG (.725), OPS (1.139), ISO (.373), and wRC+ (201) To put that into context, only two MLB players have a higher wRC+ this season, Mookie Betts at 212, and Mike Trout at 201. Granted this sample is less than half of Kepler’s plate appearances. His number against lefties will likely stabilize and drop, but it’s still a remarkable performance. Other Highlights Other Twins hitters have carried the offense at various points throughout the season. Eduardo Escobar had an outstanding March/April, putting together a .301/.348/.578 line with a 142 wRC+. Escobar has been struggling of late, but has shown signs of getting back in the groove, notching a multi-hit game against the Royals on Wednesday night. Prior to his DL stint (which until Thursday evening, looked to be coming to a close), Joe Mauer had returned to excellent form. His .404 OBP ranked 9th in the majors, his BB% of 16.8% being largely unappreciated (7th in MLB). Paul Molitor finally took the step of switching Mauer and Dozier in the batting order before Mauer’s injury and Dozier’s slump derailed any opportunity to examine the progress and success of the move. The Disappointing Brian Dozier’s recent seasons with the Twins have been punctuated by streakiness. He has typically had huge second halves. In the second half of 2017 Dozier went on what has, for him, become a characteristic tear. He put up a .304/.394/.591 batting line with a .287 ISO and wRC+ of 158. Impressive. After a hot start to 2018, Dozier has been wretched at the plate. Dozier got on base at a .319 clip in March/April and is down to a .303 clip in May. Prior to Wednesday night’s game against the Royals, his last home run has come on May 11th against the Angels. Throughout the course of the season, Dozier has performed around 10% worse than a league-average hitter at his position, an even more stark contrast considering his all-star caliber second half performance in 2017. Dozier is actually striking out less in 2018, but he’s also walking less. Dozier has hit an increased number of ground balls thus far in 2018, and is pulling the ball less. Whatever the mechanical issues behind Dozier’s struggles at the plate (he has commented in not getting into his legs during his swing), his sub-par performance has had a massive impact on a Twins team missing a significant number of their young core of offensive talent. Injuries and Suspensions Since the beginning of the season, the Twins have been without Jorge Polanco (128 wRC+ in second half of 2017). The Twins have missed a month of Miguel Sano (124 wRC+ in 2017), and have lost Jason Castro for the season (who was performing horribly but also owned a BaBIP of .216, compared to .318 in 2017). Minnesota has also had to contend with a hamstrung Byron Buxton (.300/.347/.546 in the second half of 2017) either limping throughout uncompetitive plate appearances or being shelved on the DL. The Twins have a lot to answer for in their handling of Buxton. Knowing his first half struggles in 2017, Buxton should have had a rehab stint before joining the big league team. Additionally, allowing him to not fully heal from a broken toe not only resulted in him putting together an offensive line more representative of a pitcher (.156/.183/.200), but will have the additional impact of the Twins needing to use Ryan LaMarre and Robbie Grossman more significantly in the outfield, the former of who has not hit for the Twins since his strong start, the latter being a disaster in the outfield. Buxton owns a wRC+ of -3 in 2018, a truly remarkable feat of incompetence which now seems to have very little to do with him and much more to do with questionable decision-making surrounding how his injuries have been handled. Bottom of the Order One of the greatest challenges the Twins offense has combated this season is a lack of depth. Injuries and suspensions have plagued the Twins, but the players called on to replace injured and suspended players have truly struggled. Download attachment: Bottom.png It’s worth noting that only one AL club has a worse performance from its number nine spot (White Sox) and the Twins are outperformed in the metrics by a ton of NL clubs…where the pitcher hits. The primary strength of the Twins lineup in the second half of 2017 was its depth. Throughout the lineup, the offense was producing at a high level, without having hitters producing at a superstar level. With so many injuries and suspensions in 2018, the Twins' lack of upper-level minor league hitting depth has been exposed. Gregorio Petit, Ryan LaMarre and Bobby Wilson, although serviceable, are the not type of players who can meaningfully contribute consistently to a viable and competitive major league offense. General Trends Other aspect of the Twins offense I was keen to dig into were some other more general offensive outcomes. The Twins have had a difficult time hitting with runners in scoring position. This tends to stabilize over the course of the season. In spite of this, there is a pretty obvious RISP discrepancy between the 2017 and 2018 offenses. Download attachment: Trends.png It’s also worth noting that the Twins SLG with RISP is a real pain point. Not only are the Twins having fewer desirable outcomes with RISP, they are additionally having fewer high impact outcomes in those situations. It seems obvious to connect the lack of offensive depth with these outcomes. While these numbers will likely improve with Mauer (maybe) and Polanco set to return at some point this season, it may be too late for the 2018 team if they have a poor home stand with several forthcoming series against AL Central teams. While the Twins have plenty to be excited about for the future offensively, 2018 is off to a disastrous start. What do you think is at the root of the Twins offensive struggles? Who are you most disappointed and excited by, both now, and for the future? Click here to view the article