Jamie Cameron

I think the comment about offensive upside is a fair concern. I think it will depend how his power grows, or not, because his hit tool is really solid. RE him being a reach, it's so tough when you are also juggling factors like the overall bonus pool etc. In this case, it's a guy for whom they really relied on in-person looks. I'd also add that he had consistent placing across a few different pre-draft rankings, which is something I look for as a source of confidence when trying to evaluate draft picks. Thanks for reading!

All indicators seem to point to that. Would massively increase his long-term value if he sticks, too.

In a new series at Twins Daily, JD Cameron looks at some of the Twins early draft picks from 2021, what attracted the Twins to them, and storylines to watch for in 2022. Next up, number 36 overall pick, Noah Miller. While the MLB lockout continues to stagnate the offseason, minor-league players are preparing to travel to Florida and Arizona to begin preparation for their seasons. In this series, I’ll look at some of the Twins' notable picks from the early rounds of the 2021 draft. I’ll dig into scouting reports and storylines to look for ahead of the 2022 season. Next up, Noah Miller, a high school shortstop from Wisconsin. Scouting Grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 45 | Run: 50 | Arm: 55 | Field: 55 | Overall: 45 (grades courtesy of MLB.com) Signing and Scouting The Twins selected switch-hitting shortstop Noah Miller with their supplemental first-round pick in the 2021 draft (36th overall) out of Ozaukee High School in Fredonia, WI. He signed for a $1.7 million bonus, convincing him to renege on his commitment to Alabama. Miller was ranked as the #74 overall prospect by Baseball America and #62 overall by MLB.com. Miller is the second high school shortstop the Twins have drafted in the first round in recent seasons, following helium prospect Keoni Cavaco, selected at #13 overall in the 2019 draft. The younger brother of Cleveland Guardians’ infielder Owen Miller, who made his MLB debut in 2021, Noah has a solid floor, due to a strong all-around game. At 6’0 and 180 pounds, Miller is an excellent athlete and infielder. Baseball America described his defense as ‘elite’ heading into the 2021 draft. Miller joins an increasing wealth of high school baseball talent from Wisconsin that has produced players like Gavin Lux, Jared Kelenic, and Twins catcher Ben Rortvedt in recent seasons. Offensively, Miller has a line-drive swing and shows the ability to hit the ball the other way, though with little power currently. He has an effective approach at the plate and good control of the strike zone (drawing nine walks in his first 84 professionals at-bats). Miller is an above-average runner with an above-average arm, which evaluators believe will give him the ability to play shortstop at the major-league level. While Miller doesn’t have one stand-out tool or skill-set, his strong all-around game makes him a lower variance prospect than Chase Petty. His first full season against professional pitching will be telling and a good indicator of whether Miller’s ceiling is every day starting shortstop, or more of a utility role. Quiet Excellence Miller is a prospect who won’t receive much fanfare initially, despite having MLB bloodlines. The absence of a loud tool from his arsenal and the likelihood he will move relatively slowly through the Twins minor league system will see to that. He is, however, not a prospect to sleep on. His overall athleticism was highlighted by Seth Stohs in his excellent piece this summer on the Miller family. Noah Miller finished his high school basketball career by casually breaking the all-time point scoring record. Miller benefited from being in close geographical proximity to the Twins, across the border in Wisconsin. With the 2021 draft delayed, the Twins scouting and development personnel had opportunities to get additional looks at Miller. On draft day, the Twins were attracted to several elements of Miller’s profile; his effortless defense (his favorite player is Brandon Crawford), infield clock, and a smooth compact swing from both sides of the plate. The Twins feel like he has the ability to add power to his swing as he grows and fills out. Ultimately, they believe they took a prospect beyond his years in Noah Miller. Likely to Start At: Fort Myers Mighty Mussels (A) Miller has a higher floor than most high school shortstop products. He has the defensive instincts to stick at the big-league level. How he handles his first full season of professional pitching will go a long way to determining if he can reach his ceiling as an everyday MLB shortstop. Twins Prospect Preview: Chase Petty View full article

He's incredibly charismatic, I agree. Thanks for that feedback. I will add it in moving forwards. In Petty's case: 6'1, 190lbs at the time of drafting I believe. I would guess thise could have changed slightly as he's so young still.

The reason Greene was so high is he came out as a two-way prospect. In addition to his 100+ fastball he was a SS with a loud power tool, so I think that's the difference. Also, perhaps a bit more of a sustainable delivery coming into his draft.

Sounds like a great approach to me!

Lot's of good points. Two things I'll say in response: 1) Some of the reading I did was around mechanical control and a tendency to 'yank' his fastball, so that will be something to monitor. It'll play against anyone with that velo, but you're also right, he'll have to be able to spot in quickly. 2) I'm really interested to see how he moves/how the Twins move him. Prep RHP as a 'player type' tend to move through minor league levels incredibly slowly, the Twins have also shown more aggression in their placements/moving prospects in recent seasons, so not sure how that'll get reconciled.

Agree, Mike, that avoiding injuries will be key. Despite that for Greene and the slow movement associated with a prep RHP, he's now the #35 prospect in baseball. He'll see the majors this year.

Agree with everything you said. It's really unusual for a prep RHP to move fast AND last at the major league level, but the stuff is definitely there!

My guess would be closer to 2025, but you never know! Thanks for reading!

In a new series at Twins Daily, JD Cameron looks at some of the Twins early draft-picks from 2021, what attracted the Twins to them, and storylines to watch for in 2022. First up, number 26 overall pick, Chase Petty. While the MLB lockout continues to stagnate the offseason, minor-league players are preparing to travel to Florida and Arizona to begin preparation for their seasons. In this series, I’ll look at some of the Twins' notable picks from the early rounds of the 2021 draft. I’ll dig into scouting reports and storylines to look for ahead of the 2022 season. In the first piece of the season, we'll look at the Twins first pick in the 2021 draft, RHP Chase Petty. Scouting Grades: Fastball: 70 | Slider: 70 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 50 | Overall: 55 (scouting grades courtesy of Baseball America). Signing and Scouting The Twins selected Chase Petty with their first-round pick in the 2021 draft (26th overall). Petty, out of Mainland Regional HS in New Jersey, signed for a slightly below slot $2.5 million bonus. Petty was ranked the 29th best available prospect by Baseball America and 27th by MLB.com. Despite the consensus around his overall prospect status, he qualifies as an extremely high variance pick due to being a prep pitcher who throws at extreme velocity. The Falvey regime has never drafted a high school pitching prospect in the first round. The Twins, as an organization, haven’t done so since Kohl Stewart in 2013, generally preferring high floor, college power bats. It’s easy to see what drew them to Petty, whose arm talent is elite. Petty was the most famous prep pitcher in his class, thanks to a fastball he can run up to 102 mph and was compared by some evaluators as the best they had seen from a prep-pitcher since Hunter Greene and one of the best in the history of the draft. Petty’s fastball and slider both have 70-grade potential. Petty’s fastball benefits from a ton of arm-side movement. Petty used his changeup infrequently in high school (he didn’t need to) but the Twins believe this can be developed as a plus pitch also. Petty’s upside is incredible, with two caveats. High school prep pitchers are an inherently risky group of players to draft. Some get injured, some don’t live up to their lofty potential. Petty needs to keep his arm slot in the three-quarter range to maintain consistent control of his fastball. What Makes Him Special? So what does all this arm-talent look like close up? Here’s a clip from the summer of 2020, where Petty was already blowing away his competition. Another clip from March of 2021 shows not only the incredible velocity by the arm-side movement generated by his fastball. This tweet from Ben Brewster (a must-follow if you're interested in player mechanics) is a great breakdown of how Petty generates so much velocity and includes a link to a more in-depth YouTube breakdown of why he is a such a special talent. Offseason Additions By all accounts, in addition to having incredible on-field upside, Petty is an incredibly hard worker, charismatic, and has an effervescent personality, as evidenced by his interview shortly after he was drafted by the Twins. Petty has clearly been working hard on his changeup since being drafted by the Twins, as shown by this recently posted video from his training facility in NJ. While Petty will need significant time to develop, the addition of a plus changeup would give him three plus pitches (two at 70-grade) and the type of arsenal capable of being a front-line MLB caliber starting pitcher. Likely to Start At: Fort Myers Mighty Mussels (A) While Petty will need time to develop and carries inherent prospect risk, the talent and stuff are as good as the Twins have ever had in their system. Petty is a starting pitcher to dream on. The next article in the Prospect Preview series will look more closely at Noah Miller, the Twins competitive balance pick at the end of the first round (36 overall). If there's any additional information you would like to see in these 2022 prospect previews, please let me know in the comments. View full article

The Twins are expected to sign #35 international free agent prospect Yilber Herrera next week. He's been compared to fellow Twin Jorge Polanco. Read about this potential Minnesota Twins Venezuelan addition. The Twins have a type when it comes to international free agents. The majority of players signed by Minnesota profile as athletic shortstops or centerfielders with quick hands and strong hit tools who need to grow into their bodies to achieve their power potential. Yilber Herrera is the former of these two profiles. The 16-year-old Venezuelan is ranked as the #35 international free agent overall. If you want a professional player comp, MLB Pipeline likens Herrera to a young Jorge Polanco based on his frame and overall athleticism, which could allow him to move quickly through the minor leagues. Yilber Herrera Scouting Report Bats: S | Throws: R | HT: 6’0 | WT: 155 MLB Pipeline Scouting Grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 40 | Run: 50 | Arm: 55 | Field: 50 | Overall: 50 Offensively, Herrera profiles as an effective contact hitter with quick hands and good bat speed. His lagging offensive tool currently is power. While he has shown flashes, he is lanky at 6’0, 155 lbs, and has yet to grow into his body. There is a good chance he develops more power as he grows and fills out. The 16-year-old has shown a strong ability to use the whole field when hitting and while not a burner, is quick and a savvy baserunner. Defensively, he diverges from the Polanco comparison significantly. While Polanco never promised to stick at SS due to a weak arm, Herrera’s athleticism and strong arm indicate he has a stronger chance to stick at shortstop. Herrera trains at the Jaime Ramos Baseball Academy. If he signs with the Twins, he will continue to cement a strong relationship between the Twins and Venezuelan youngsters in the last decade. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY The Minnesota Twins Recent History in International Free Agency International Free Agent Profile: Bryan Acuna View full article

Thank you for reading! Typically players from Asia are posted, and therefore follow a different process as most who come over are established professionals. I like the info and buzz but the system itself i find pretty problematic. It takes advantage of folks who generally, are much less financially viable the amateur prospects in the USA. A ton of these guys SHOULD be getting way bigger bonuses than they do imo.

Thanks for reading! We typically only hear about the top 20-35 prospects, but most time sign several more guys who are extremely difficult to get information on (Arraez back in 2013 would have been a good example of someone with very little fanfare). Definitely a huge opportunity to add talent!

Thanks for reading Roger! I agree, typically, in this context, more lottery tickets gives you a better chance of winning!

Thanks Mike for reading as always. We'll get into the weeds on the prospects starting today!

Like last year, a delayed period of international free agency begins on January 15th. What is the history and pedigree of the Twins in making these signing periods count? The international free agent signing period will get underway on January 15th. After being delayed by the pandemic, the current crop of IFAs can sign with MLB teams provided they turn 17 before September 1st, 2022. This week at Twins Daily, Cody Christie and I will look at the Twins history in International Free Agency, dating back to 2009. What were the Twins' biggest swings and misses? Where did they acquire or miss out on value? Later in the week, we’ll provide offensive and defensive profiles for three prospects likely to sign with the Twins. Note: The current MLB lockout WILL NOT impact international free agent signing as this period has been delayed since last summer. 2009 - The 99th Percentile Outcome Year In 2009, the Twins had a defining year in international free agency. They signed: Miguel Sano to a $3.15 million signing bonus Max Kepler to an $800,000 signing bonus Jorge Polanco to a $700,000 signing bonus The majority of international free agents don’t make it to the majors, let alone have multi-year MLB careers, let alone get extended by the teams that signed them. To have signed three players which fit that description in one signing cycle is a remarkable outcome. It’s not melodramatic to suggest that the IFA period in 2009 changed the trajectory of the Twins franchise. In 2021, Sano, Kepler, and Polanco formed core pieces in the Twins lineup. Kepler and Polanco, in particular, are signed to owner-friendly long-term deals. Last season, the three combined for 6.2 fWAR, just south of $50 million in value. Not bad for a $4.6 million investment. 2013 - 2017 - Twins Find Value, Miss on Big Names In 2013, the Twins signed a diminutive Venezuelan infielder to a $40,000 signing bonus. For an international free agent, this money is an afterthought, a lottery ticket. Throughout six MiLB seasons, he managed a .310 AVG, and .385 OBP. He already had a nickname when he came into the Twins system, ‘La Regadera’ (the sprinkler) due to his ability to spray the ball all over the field. His name? Luis Arraez. Arraez is a great reminder that international free agency is a lottery. Often the biggest name prospects underachieve, and players signed to middling or small bonuses can become superstars. In 2014 the Twins signed Huascar Ynoa for an $800,000 bonus. He was later traded to Atlanta for Jaime Garcia. Ynoa put up 1.4 fWAR in just 17 starts for the Braves in 2021, managing a 27% K%. Another significant free-agent signing in 2014 was from the Diamondbacks organization. Jhoan Duran, a lanky, hard-throwing RHP, signed for just $65,000. He’s now the #5 overall prospect in the Twins organization. In 2015 the Twins went bigger, signing Wander Javier, the #8 overall prospect, to a $4 million bonus. Javier’s career has been largely derailed by injuries. He struck out 34% of the time and managed just a 86 wRC+ at A+ Cedar Rapids in 2021. Gilberto Celestino was also signed by the Astros in 2015. The #7 prospect came to the Twins by way of the Ryan Pressly trade. Lastly, of note, two prospects further down the MLB Pipeline rankings in 2015? Juan Soto (#22) and Fernando Tatis Jr (#27). 2018 - Current - Too Early to Tell It’s difficult to draw conclusions from 2018 onwards as prospects have had limited time in the minors, particularly when considering a lost 2020 season. In 2018, Misael Urbina was signed to a $2.75 million bonus. The Venezuelan OF struggled at A ball last season, but with time on his side at just 19 years old, is an extremely promising prospect and ranked #12 overall in the Twins system. Emmanuel Rodriguez was the big get in 2019. He was signed to a $2.5 million bonus. The left-handed OF is currently the Twins #20 overall prospect, after being ranked #8 in his international free agent class. Rodriguez’s professional career began in earnest in 2021, where he managed a 124 wRC+ and slugged 10 HR in just 37 games. Rodriguez is one to keep an eye on in 2022. Finally, in 2020, the Twins signed Danny De Andrade, another diminutive infield prospect, who currently sits at #24 in the Twins system. Ranked as the #16 IFA in his class, De Andrade projects as a strong hitter for both average and solid power and has the defensive chops to remain at shortstop. De Andrade managed a .340 OBP in his first season with the DSL Twins. What’s Next? International scouting, and free agency, is a complex, challenging lottery. For a mid-market organization like the Twins, it’s critical in adding organizational talent, and potentially, adding impact MLB level talent. Throughout the week, Cody and I will have offensive and defensive profiles of the three major prospects linked to Minnesota, starting tomorrow with the younger brother of an MLB superstar. View full article

2022 is a critical year for the development of the Twins' deep farm system. Here are 3 critical St. Paul Saints storylines to watch in 2022. Understandably, much of the discourse between Twins fans this offseason has surrounded the lack of pitching upgrades, a frustration compounded by a stagnant lockout. Since Derek Falvey arrived in Minnesota in 2016 the organization has made an enormous commitment to maximizing player development. The Twins were on the front end of hiring college coaches for their MLB staff (Wes Johnson). Additionally, they catapulted their front office staff from near the bottom of the proverbial pile to a modern, sophisticated, and extremely expertly staffed group. While Twins fans spend most of their time sweating the status of the rotation and the potential competitiveness of the MLB roster in 2022, I’d argue that the outcomes of the Wichita Wind Surge and St. Paul Saints will have a greater impact on any retrospective of Falvey’s tenure than anything the MLB club does in 2022. The Twins are completely committed to developing their own pitching pipeline to achieve the ‘sustainable success’ Falvey spoke of when he first arrived in Minnesota. With this in mind, here are three critical St. Paul Saints' storylines to watch closely in 2022. The Development of the Twins’ Starting Pitching Pipeline This has to be the year Twins starting pitching prospects breakthrough and show what they can do at the MLB level. The majority of Joe Ryan’s development should be credited to the Rays. Bailey Ober was an exceptional surprise in 2021 but is likely a mid-back end of the rotation guy. In 2022, the Twins need to see a pitcher breakthrough who shows the potential to start a playoff game at the MLB level. There is certainly no shortage of possibilities! Chris Vallimont, Cole Sands, Simeon Woods-Richardson, and Jordan Balazovic all finished 2021 at Double-A Wichita and should all see time in St. Paul in 2022. Sands is a particularly unheralded Twins prospect, striking out 96 in just 80 1/3 innings in 2021 while producing a 2.46 ERA. Josh Winder and Jhoan Duran spent time in St. Paul in 2021 and should start there in 2022. It will, in particular, be a critical season for Duran who lost the majority of his 2021 to injury. Owner of perhaps the nastiest stuff in the Twins system (along with Chase Petty), Duran needs to stay healthy in order to show some sustained success at Triple-A. Coaching Staff Turnover This storyline goes hand-in-hand with the development of the Twins' incredibly deep farm system. One inevitable price you pay when developing excellent infrastructure is it will constantly be poached. St. Paul Saints Triple-A hitting coach, Matt Borgschulte was hired by the Orioles to be their co-MLB hitting coach this offseason. Additionally, Mike McCarthy, who was gracious enough to interview with me in 2021 for Twins Daily, took a Triple-A pitching coach job with the Padres. It’s unusual to lose both hitting and pitching coaches in one offseason and particularly challenging with such a pivotal developmental season for so many prospects ahead in 2022. I’d argue that these are two absolutely critical hires for 2022 and beyond. This will be worth paying attention to when they are announced. Bullpen Help is on the Way The Twins bullpen was a horror show in the first half of 2021. Despite significant improvement in the second half, Minnesota was already out of contention. There will be a significant turnover in the bullpen in 2022. Jovani Moran made the leap to the MLB level at the end of 2021 (pay attention to his changeup). Additionally, the Twins have three MLB-ready relief prospects in Yennier Cano, Ian Hamilton, and Ryan Mason. In 182 minor-league innings in 2021 (AA and AAA), the three combined for a 3.34 ERA and 235 strikeouts. All three will likely see the majors in 2022. The Twins front office has hitched their wagon to developing their own talent over the last five years. 2022 should be the year when it comes to fruition for the major league team with more consistency. While the Twins MiLB system doesn’t have the same elite-level prospects as some other top systems, they have some of the best depth in baseball. Do yourself a favor and get to CHS Field as often as you can in 2022. Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

The Giants just won 107 games with a mostly FA rotation. Not of a deep playoff run of course, but a good example. I'm not suggesting such a black and white approach, merely that there's value in that market to add stability. Adding that type of value doesn't preclude the Twins from relying on the stable of very exciting high minors arm talent they have.

I definitely agree, you never know. However, I specifically think there is a sub-stack of mid-rotation, FA pitching (DeSclafani is a god example) where there's a more predictable level of stability to be had. The Twins never attack this because their recent strategy has been 'we'll tweak a guy who struggled recently (e.g. Bundy).