luckylager

Edit to note: the tables are now fixed, I believe.
 
Fans, we are a demanding bunch! We want fixes now, and we want them cheap, so our favorite teams can do more fixing. I maybe spend too much time on Twins Daily, and I post a lot. That makes me wrong a lot……or maybe I’m just not all that good at this baseball thing, who knows. One of the main things being discussed right now is that the Twins should add some pitching, and I’ve been wondering just how realistic that is.
 
What does it cost to get pitching? What kind of pitchers are actually traded before the deadline? When are they traded?
 
Basically, in this series of blogs, I want to know what seems realistic in terms of trades, because I’d rather be informed when posting than not. Because baseball seems to have changed, I’ll be using data from 2013 on.
First up in the analysis? So, how soon can we realistically expect trades in MLB?
 
We’ll be looking at trades in June and July to see when players change hands, and the kinds of players that change teams. Given that the August deadline has gone away, we will be ignoring those trades, which admittedly may or may not change how one views the analysis…….
 
June 1-15
 
There isn’t much action in the first two weeks of June involving major league players.
 
[table]


Year
Number of Trades
MLB Pitchers
MLB HItters
Impact Trades


2013
2
1
1
0


2014
1
0
1
1*


2015
3
3
2
1


2016
2
0
3
1


2017
2
1
1
1


2018
1
0
1
1


2019
2
1
2
1


Total[td15][/td]

6
11
6
[/table]
 
The MLB hitter and pitcher columns show the number of major league players involved. Impact trades could be either the major league player was good the year of the deal and/or after the deal, or one or more the minor league players is/was. Good is subjective, but I’m going for more than 1 fWAR in any given year as the litmus test.
 
Not surprisingly, there just aren’t that many trades in the first half of June. Teams aren’t sure if they are in or out of the race, and those that are sure aren’t certain what they really need yet. More importantly, most articles and analyses on the internet indicate that teams wait until later to deal, in hopes of having more leverage (and getting a better deal). This aligns well with options theory, but we’ll have to do more analysis to see if waiting works or not.
 
*In 2014, Manny Pina was traded. He was not a major league player at the time, so he doesn’t appear in the table above. But, he was pretty good for Milwaukee in 2017 and 2018.
 
Mark Trumbo was part of a deal in 2015. He put up decent numbers after the trade, then a good season in the next year. Now? Not so much. But, he put up half a fWAR after the deal, and 2.2 in 2016. The other side of that deal? Welington Castillo went to Arizona. He was good that year, and in 2016 and 2017. Luckily for Twins fans, he’s not been as good in Chicago! Dominic Leone also went to AZ. He had one good year, but it wasn’t for them…..
 
Chris Coghlan was traded in 2016, back to the Cubs. He put up .9 fWAR after the deal, but was hitless in 9 post season at bats. He fell off a cliff after that year. The player traded for him played parts of two seasons, and has bounced around the minors.
 
2017 saw a name that might be in trade talks again in 2019 move in early June….Sam Dyson. He and cash were dealt for a player that is currently 26 and in AAA. Dyson has been good, but not great, though this year he has put up .5 fWAR in half a season. His traditional numbers are more impressive, probably, than his WAR would show…..Why was he so cheap? He was awful in Texas. Did his current team fix something, or is it the park/league?
 
Last year? One reason C. J. Cron was available this off season is that Tampa traded for Ji-Man Choi in early June of 2018. They got him for cash and Brad Miller. I bet Milwaukee would like to have that trade back…….
 
Edwin Encarcion was recently traded for a minor leaguer, but mostly because the Yankees absorbed a good chunk of EE’s salary. The Mariners are all in on the all-important financial flexibility thing right now….
 
I’m actually surprised that six years in a row there were some impactful major league players traded. Now, not one of those had been consistently good, but it does show that some good players move in early June. Not many of those were pitchers, btw.
 
 
June 16-30
 
[table]


Year
Number of Trades
MLB Pitchers
MLB HItters
Impact Trades


2013
5
0
5
3


2014
2
2
1
1


2015
3
1*
2
0


2016
3
1
2
1


2017
3
0
4
0


2018
2
0
2
1


2019
0
0
0
0


Total
18
[4
16
6
[/table]
 
In 2013, Colin McHugh was traded (not to the Astros) and he became quite good with the Astros. But, it was not an impactful deal for either team involved in the deal. He is an impactful player in the deal, so it counts. Eric Thames was also dealt that year, and put up a couple decent years after that. No one else in those five deals has done much, though Colin Cowgil managed to barely clear the 1 fWAR line in 2014…..so three impactful players were dealt that year!
 
2014 saw a rare pitcher for pitcher trade. One of them just cleared 1 fWAR the following year, but neither did anything much. Neither did the hitter traded that year. Really, calling 1 year of fWAR impactful seems like maybe too low a bar…….I’d call it almost useful for 1 year, but barely.
 
In 2015 AZ sent the injured *Bronson Arroyo and Touki Toussaint to Atlanta for a guy. Touki could be a real piece for Atlanta. This was clearly a salary dump situation, where Atlanta basically bought Toussaint for Arroyo’s contract. So far, though, he’s not produced even one half WAR, so maybe not.
 
Chris Paddack and Fernando Rodney were traded for each other (so maybe pitcher for pitcher trades aren't rare?) in 2016. This looks like a great trade for the Padres for sure. Rodney, of course, has been ok to effective after that but was terrible in Miami. I’m still trying to figure out what Miami was doing…..No other trade that year mattered, unless you still pine for Oswaldo Arcia….
 
There were no interesting trades in 2017 in the second half of June.
 
Steve Pearce was quite good last year for Boston. He was traded for an ok AA player. The other trade last year was not all that interesting.
 
This year? Well….there were zero trades in the second half of June.
 
So, the second half of June saw one really good player change hands, plus Steve Pearce who was quite good last year for Boston. Other than that, not many players/trades mattered all that much. It’s an odd coincidence that there were six trades that cleared the approximately 1 fWAR barrier in both parts of June, but it’s just a coincidence.
 
What did we learn?
 
That depends on what you already knew, I guess……But here’s a summary of what I learned!
 
Some good players have been traded in June. Most of those involved salary dumps, or odd decisions by poorly run teams (Miami, for example). There just are not many trades in June at all, and most of them amount to nothing much. It’s hard to criticize any team for not making deals before July, given this data. The best players were either picked up in salary dumps, or were near MLB ready minor league players (admittedly, those in the lower minors have not had a chance to do much yet. That said, in a quick glance, none look like big time prospects either).
 
In other words, I'm not surprised nothing has happened much this year, given what has happened in recent history.
 
In the next post, we’ll look at the first three weeks of July…..

At some point, you have to know when to cut bait and move on. For Twins fans, that time has come for Dallas Keuchel.
 
For the last 5 seasons, Keuchel has been the Astro’s homegrown ace. From his debut in 2012, Keuchel has slowly cemented himself as one of the best starting pitchers in the game. Save for a rocky 2016 and some early growing pains, Keuchel has been nothing but solid.
 
Anchored by Keuchel and Justin Verlander, acquired from the Tigers in August of 2017, the Houston Astros have been one of baseball’s best teams for the past 3 seasons. But Keuchel is now a free agent and many Twins fans are hoping that Minnesota eventually signs him.
 
However, if Minnesota elected to sign Keuchel, don’t expect the same results from Keuchel that Astros fans have grown accustomed to seeing from him. In fact, if Minnesota signed him, it is possible that Twins fans would see the Nolasco Fiasco 2.0.
 
In 2013, the season before the Twins signed him, Nolasco’s ERA was 3.70. In 2018, Keuchel had a 3.74 ERA. Now compare that to 2017, when Keuchel had an ERA of 2.90, and you’ll see a jump of +0.84.
 
This is not the only concerning statistic. Last season, Keuchel had a WHIP of 1.31. While it is not a critical tell-all stat, WHIP is helpful in determining a pitcher’s general number of base runners allowed in a given inning. Keuchel’s WHIP of 1.3 is far above his teammate Justin Verlander’s league-leading WHIP of 0.9.
 
Last season, Dallas Keuchel gave up a league-leading 211 hits. Even more alarming is his league-leading 874 batters faced, while only pitching 204.2 innings. If you do some simple math, that’s about 4.3 batters per inning. Think about that. That’s over 1 batter higher than the minimum every single inning, which accounts for his WHIP of 1.3.
 
Besides all of these influential, albeit alarming, statistics, there is another reason to move on from Dallas Keuchel. This current front office, which has more than proven its competency with its savvy moves this season, hasn’t even given fans a whiff of the notion that it is looking at signing Keuchel. This speaks volumes in and of itself.
 
The duo of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have taken this ballclub from one of baseball’s worst to one of the best in the league in three short seasons. Their moves have positioned the ballclub to compete deep into the postseason this year and hopefully for years to come. There comes a time when fans need to trust their respective front offices and believe that they know that they are doing. For Twins fans, that time is now.
 
Someone will sign Dallas Keuchel, and soon. After June 6th, when the draft ends and teams will no longer lose a draft pick when they sign Keuchel, there will likely be a bidding war for his services. Perhaps Keuchel will return to his Cy Young form and I will have to eat crow. But if I were betting man, Keuchel will be at best just eh this season. I think so, and Twins fans should think so too.

Best First Baseman in Twins history?
This is really tough because 1B seems to be the plug and play position. Can’t run – 1B, no room at DH – 1B. Need a rest 1B. So for the most part slow, lumbering, powerful describes the position, but then there are the exceptions like Keith Hernandez who set the bar for the leagues and Joe Mauer who set the fielding bar for the Twins. But note – Hernandez might have been a fielding whiz, but 1B fielding does not get you into the HOF. So how to analyze 1B? To begin with how many games did the player start at that position, remember it can be a fill in for another position player to get a bench player on the field.
 
In 1961, Harmon Killebrew played at first base for 119 games. I know we think of 3B, but the big slugger was able to come across the field too. To illustrate my point about how 1B is a fill-in position the following players were also on the bag during 1961, Bob Allison, Don Mincher, Julio Becquer, Joe Altobelli, and Ron Howard.
 
In 1962 Harmon was removed for the man I argue was the best glove at the position in our history – Sorry Joe! – but Vic Power was amazing there. Don Mincher was his primary backup, Harmon played there 4 games and played in Left Field (surprise) for 151 games. Jim Snyder got one game at the bag.
 
1963 saw Vic Power dominate the bag with Mincher his backup and 38 year old Vic Wertz who hit the famous ball that Willie Mays caught in the world series was there for six games.
 
1964, the 36 year old Power lost the job to Bob Allison – yes the great left fielder of the Twins started 93 games at first, Don Mincher started 76, Power 12 and then the list is Minnesota Native, Jerry Kindall, Frank Kostro, and Rich Reese.
 
In 1965 perennial understudy Don Mincher started 99 games and Harmon Killebrew came back to the bag for 72 games. The other names are Rich Reese, Bob Allison, Andy Kosko. This was our World Series team.
Don Mincher started 130 games in 1966 and was backed up by Harmon Killebrew 42 games and Harmon played 3B 107 games that year.
 
In 1967 Mincher was gone and Harmon had the bag for 160 games. Rich Reese was his understudy at first. Rich Reese took the lead in 1968 with 87 games, Killebrew was at 3B for 11 games and 1B for 77. Bob Allison had 17 games and then the parade at the base had Frank Kostro, Craig Nettles (famous 3B for the Yankees and a 3B glove wizard – he also played 3b, LF, RF, CF that year), Keith Hernandez, Jim Holt, Frank Quilici, and Cesar Tovar!
 
1969 we were back to Rich Reese with 118 games and Killebrew going between 3B and 1B playing at first for 81 games. Rounding out 1B was Cotton Nash, Bob Allison, and Jim Holt. The new decade looked quite similar with Rich Reese getting 146 games in 1970 and Harmon Killebrew coming over from 3B 28 times and Bob Allison for seven. Then Jim Holt, Cotton Nash, and Hall of Famer Rod Carew for one game.
 
 
The first base men of the sixties break down to these:
Killebrew 969 games out of 22 years in MLB, 791 games at 3B, 7 seasons in LF so he is primarily a 1B player. Of course he is in the HOF, his WAR is 60.4. .256/.376/.509/.884 with 573 HRs makes him hard to beat.
Don Mincher played 13 years, 7 with the Twins. 8.3 WAR with Twins. .244/.340/.479/.819 He hit 200 HRs in his career. 617 games.
Vic Power played three of his twelve years in MN. 1.7 WAR in MN. 278/.305/.398/.703 In fielding he was 62 Runs above average according to BR. He was in 301 games for us.
Rich Reese was with the Twins of 10 of his 11 years in MLB. 3.2 WAR for those ten years is not very great. He had 640 appearances at first.
Bob Allison was the primary 1B only one years, but appeared at first in 145 games and therefore is not really in the running despite his great skills.
Rich Reese 95 and Harmon Killebrew 90 games dominated first in 1971 with Jim Holt and George Thomas as other players.
1972 Killebrew had 130 games at first and obviously was replaced for defensive purposes because Rich Reese is credited with 98 games at first. In addition the other 1B appearances were by Rick Renick, Jim Holt (he seems to have a long career of one appearance), and Jim Nettles (Craig’s brother).
 
1973 surprises me. While Killebrew got 57 games, Joe Lis (?) was the primary starter for 96, Jim Holt got 33, Reese 17 and Craig Kusick 11.
 
Kusick took over in 1974 starting 75 games, Jim Holt played 67, Killebrew 33 and DH for 57, Pat Bourgue 21, Joe Lis 18, and Jerry Terrell 2.
 
Kusick was still the primary 1B in 1975 but barely. He was in 51 games, John Briggs 49, Tom Kelly 43 (his only MLB year!), Rod Carew 14, Steve Braun 9, Danny Walton 7. A typical merry-go-round at the bag.
 
Then in 1976 Rod Carew put another HOF players at first base. He was at first for 152 games, Kusick for 24 and no one else! Not much changes in 1977 with Carew at first for 151 games, Kusick for 23 and Jerry Terrell 1. The Rod Carew show continued in 1978 with Rod in 148 games, Kusick 27 and Jose Morales in 2.
 
The decade of the seventies ended with Cal Griffiths big racist mouth chasing Carew to California and first base went to Ron Jackson who started 157 games, Danny Goodwin, Craig Kusick 8, and Mike Cubbage, Jose Morales, and Roy Smalley one each.
 
 
For the seventies we can disregard the players I looked at for the sixties even though some certainly were the major players in this decade. The new first base men – the starters were:
Craig Kusick played for the Twins 7 years and accumulated 3.6 WAR, .236/ .343/.394/.738 He played at first 238 games.
Rod Carew played 19 seasons, 12 with the Twins 1184 games at First. 334/.393/ .448/.841 and 63.8 WAR with the Twins.
Joe Lis played two years with the Twins and his .238/ .321/.374/.695 (-0.4) WAR is hardly worthy of being on the list.
 
The last first baseman of the group is Ron Jackson. He played for the Twins for 3 of his 10 MLB years and batted .268/.325/.409/.734 with 2.8 WAR and played first 552 times in 8 years
Summing up the 1970’s we come up with HOF number 2 as the best – Rod Carew and then a lot of names and not much to show.
 
Ron Jackson will lead off the new decade in 1980 with 119 games at first followed by Mike Cubbage at 73, Danny Goodwin 13, Pete Mackanin 4, Roy Smalley 3, Jose Morales 2, and Jesus Vega 2.
 
The 1981 season was a merry-go-round with Danny Goodwin starting 40, Ron Jackson 36, Tim Corcoran 16, Kent Hrbek 13, Pete Mackanin 10, Mickey Hatcher 7, Sal Butera 1, and Roy Smalley 1. At least there were some really recognizable names among the eight!
 
1982 put Kent Hrbek at the forefront with 138 games, Jesus Vega (who I do not remember) played 18 and Greg Wells 10. Hrbek owned the base now and in 1983 he had 137 games with Scott Ullger as his backup and playing 30 games. Then Mickey Hatcher 7, Randy Bush 3. Hrbek 148 games, Hatcher 17 and Randy Bush 2 in 1984.
In 1985 it is amazing that there are 9 names at first base when Hrbek played 156 games and Mike Stenhouse played 8, with Mickey Hatcher 4. Lots of substitutions, I guess. Anyway, the rest of the nine are Randy Bush, Mark Funderburk, Gary Gaetti, Tim Laudner, Roy Smalley, and Ron Washington. Not sure how they did this unless they had one game of musical chairs.
 
1986 was simpler – Hrbek 146, Hatcher 22, Bush 3. In the World Series Year of 1987 Hrbek played in 137, Gene Larkin was 26, Randy Bush 9, Tim Laudner 7. A Very Big year – our second World Series and first victory with Hrbek using his wrestling moves to handle St Louis. I was in a bar with Cardinal fans in Sierra Vista Arizona during that game – what a hoot!
 
In 1988 Hrbek only played in 105 games so Gene Larkin got to play in 60, Bush 6, Kelvin Torve (anyone remember him?) 4 and Tim Laudner 3.
 
The last season of the eighties decade was another merry-go-round with 8 players at first. Hrbek played in 89, Gene Larkin 69, Randy Bush 25, Tim Laundner 11, Paul Sorrento 5, Gaetti, Brian Harper, and John Moses two each.
 
 
The eighties were the Hrbek decade.
Hrbek played for the Twins for 14 years. .282/.367/ 481/.848 with 38.6 WAR. He played 1609 games at first.
Danny Goodwin played three years for the Twins .242/.312/.372 /.684 (-1.3) WAR and 61 games at 1B.
The nineties still had Hrbek 120 games at first, Larkin 28, Sorrento 15, Bush 6, Moses 6, Gaetti and Harper two each. In 1991, the next World Series victory Hrbek had 128 games, Larkin 39, Sorrento 13, Bush 12, Harper 1, and Al Newman 1. It is a reminder that we actually had a bench in those days.
 
1992 Hrbek 104, Larkin 55, Terry Jorgenson 13, Randy Bush 8, and Chili Davis 1.
 
1993 we dropped to fifth in our division with 71 wins and Hrbek was on first 115 games. Dave McCarty was the new hope and he played first in 36 games with Larkin 18, Jorgenson 9, David Winfield – Hall of Famer – 5, Randy Bush 4, Mike Maksudian 4, and Chip Hale 1.
 
1994 Hrbek played only 72 games at first, Dave McCarty 32, Steve Dunn 12, Jeff Reboulet 10, Chip Hale 7. Hrbek was done.
 
1995 we set a new record with 11 players spending some time at First. Scott Stahoviak played 69 so he is the starter of record for this year. Dan Masteller 48, Ron Coomer 22, McCarty 18, Reboulet 17, Jerald Clark 11, Kevin Maas 8, Steve Dunn, Pedro Munoz, and Chip Hale 3 each, and Matt Merullo 1.
 
1996 Scott Stahoviak took over and started 114 games, but the Coomer was on his tail with 57, and Hall of Famer Paul Molitor snuck in and played first 17 games. Jeff Reboulet 13, Chip Hale 6, and Denny Hocking 1. With out team playing on the wrong end of the standings things were shaking up and in 1997 Stahoviak held on for 81 games, but he was being pushed by Greg Colburn who started 64, and Brent Brede 15. Paul Molitor took the bag for 14 games, and a guy named David Ortiz for 11, Ron Coomer 9, Terry Steinback 2, and Denny Hocking 1.
 
1998 David Ortiz – soon to be a Hall of Famer got to start 70 games, but he was not good enough to start more so Ron Coomer got 54 starts. And Coomer out homered Ortiz 15 – 9! Orlando Merced got 38 games, Molitor 9, Doug Mientkiewicz 8, Stahoviak 4, Hocking 2, Gates 1 and Jon Shave 1.
 
Ending the decade of the nineties Mientkiewicz took over with 110 games, Coomer 71, Gates 5, Hocking 2, and David Ortiz was allowed to start 1!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.
 
So here we have a tough decision – does Hrbek own this decade too?
Stahoviak played for the Twins for five years and got a total of 1 WAR. .256/.335/.410/.745 and 268 games at first.
David Ortiz toiled six years with the Twins – 266/.348/461/.809 2.6 WAR.
 
Ron Coomer .278/ .315/.431/.746 for six years with 2.5 WAR and 408 games at first in his career.
Doug Mientkiewicz for seven years hit .275/.367/.408/.776 with WAR 6.4 WAR. An excellent fielder who ranks with Power and Mauer for the best gloves. Doug did more in the 2000s than the 90s but this field is weak despite David Ortiz so Mientkiewicz is my choice for the 90s – otherwise it is Hrbek again.
 
A new decade and a new century. We wipe the slate clean – it has to be good, right? Mientkiewicz only plays 3 games in 2000 and Ron Coomer grabs first playing 124 games, David Ortiz gets in 27, Hocking 12, Butch Huskey 9, Matt LeCroy 3, Casey Blake 3, and Chad Allen 1. Just think if they had given Ortiz all the games the last 5 had!
2001 and the team actually played 500 which is a big jump from the last few seasons. Mientkiewicz is back at First for 148 games, Denny Hocking played 11, and David Ortiz gets 8, Cuddyer 5, Casey Blake 3, LeCroy 2. Doug is okay, but we will all wonder why Ortiz gets the shuffle – actually we know – it is the genius Tom Kelly. Tom was a great manager, but he blew this opportunity with Ortiz because the Twins Way was not David’s.
 
2002 we were in first place in our division Mientkiewicz started 143 games, Ortiz 15, LeCroy 8, Cuddyer, Hocking and Todd Sears six each, Bobby Keitly 5, and Casey Blake 3.
 
2003 and another first place. Mientkiewicz played 139 games, LeCroy 17, Sears 14, Hocking 10, Morneau 7, Cuddyer 5. In 2004 this order changes as Mientkiewicz playes 77 games and Morneau 61 and why was LeCroy in 23 games? Cuddyer 10, Jose Offerman 7 and Terry Tiffee 1.
 
2005 Morneau takes over and plays first in 138 games. LeCroy is primary back up with 23 appearances and Terry Tiffee (I really cannot remember him) played 13, with Cuddyer getting in 8. In 2006 Morneau is again, the man. He was in 153 games. Other appearances at first base were Cuddyer 6, Phil Nevin 5, Tiffee 3, and Luis Rodriquez 1.
 
2007 Morneau 143 and then a list of mostly unknowns – Jeff Cirillo 8, Garrett Jones 8, Cuddyer 4, Rodriguez 3, and LeCroy 1. 2008 Morneau starts 155 games. Other appearances at first are by Mike Lamb, Brian Buscher, Howie Clark, Cuddyer, Bendan Harris, and Matt Macri.
 
Finishing the decade in 2009 Morneau played in 123 games at first, Cuddyer 34, Buscher 13, Harris 3, Justin Huber and Matt Tolbert 1.
 
So the 00 decade ended with only one true option – Justin Morneau.
 
Morneau played 11 seasons with the Twins - .278/.347/.485/.832 and 23.3 WAR while playing 1324 games at first in his career.
 
The final decade is the one we are finishing up – the tens or teens.
 
2010 Cuddyer plays the most at first 84 games while Morneau has 77 as a concussion ruins a great career. Talbert, Harris and Morales get the crumbs.
 
2011 Morneau hangs on to get 56 games, Cuddyer 46, Luke Hughes 36, Chris Parmelee 20, and Joe Mauer makes his first appearances at the bag for 18 games. Plouffe plays one game at first. The winds of change are in the air.
 
2012 Morneau gets his games up to 99 and Parmelee 38, Mauer 30. The scraps go to Plouffe for three and one each for Doumit, Burroughs, and Hughes.
 
2013 Morneau is still the man – 112 games, followed by Chris Calabello 26, Parmelee 23, Mauer 8, and Plouffe 2.
2014 in the midst of a string of last place finished, the big news is that Joe Mauer is now the first baseman. He has 100 games at first, Parmelee 33, Colabello 23, Kendrys Morales 13, and Kennys Vargas 13. Joe will be the man from now on and in 2015 he started 137 games at first and the team finished second and above 500. Kennys Vargas 18, Trevor Plouffe 17, Chris Hermann and Miguel Sano got two each.
 
2016 Mauer 95, Vargas 32, Byung Ho Park 24, Plouffe 13, Beresford 6 and Kepler 2.
 
2017 we finish second and above 500 and Mauer starts 125 games with Vargas backing him up and playing in 40 games, Miguel Sano played first in 9, Chris Giminez 7, Ehire Adrianza 4, and Mitch Garver 3.
 
I will stop there. We know Mauer will finish his career and there really is no doubt that he is the first baseman of the 10s. He has 11 seasons as a catcher where he was hall of fame caliber and 8 as our best first baseman, but no longer HOF. His line .306/.388/.439/.827 is outstanding and puts him in the HOF conversation.
 
But this is hard – you choose - here are the best Minnesota first basemen by decades again – I find that it is hard to sort out their first base stats from catcher, LF, RF, 3B, 2B, and all the other positions that many of them played.
 
Two are in the Hall of fame, one might join them, one would have if his career had not been damaged by injury.
• 1960s – Harmon Killebrew
• 1970s – Rod Carew
• 1980s – Kent Hrbek
• 1990s – Mientkiewicz
• 2000s – Morneau
• 2010s – Mauer
Nice list – who do you want?
 
For those of you counting - there were 108 players who were on first base in the 56 years!
 

Picture this, I’m sitting in my 1:00 Anthropology class again absolutely bored out of my mind as my professor drones on about, well actually I don’t remember, but I hope it wasn’t important. Anyways, an interesting thought came to me; how did Derek Falvey build the Indians starting pitching staff? This thought came the day after looking at the Fangraphs projections for both Minnesota and Cleveland and realizing that dear God, Cleveland’s starting staff projections are hilariously better than Minnesota’s, even David doesn’t want to take on that Goliath. We can finagle about how much attention the Twins should have given the starting rotation this offseason, but short of signing Dallas Keuchel, trading for Zack Greinke, and then telling Jake Odorizzi to take a hike, the Twins starting staff was always going to be vastly inferior to the Indians. So how did Falvey do it? The man was boasted as the brains behind arguably the strongest rotation in baseball, so let’s dig into how he built it.
 
 
Falvey first joined the Indians as an intern in 2007 and then transitioned to Assistant Director of Baseball Operations in 2009. Falvey was then promoted to co-director of Baseball Operations in 2011 where he stayed until becoming the assistant GM in 2016, the same year he joined the Twins as executive vice president and chief baseball officer. Admittedly, Falvey’s role in the Indians front office early on was a bit less important than the one he has now with the Twins, so assigning the reason for these moves directly on him is a bit of a stretch. But at the same time, I think it’s fair to assume that Falvey played a decent role in all of these moves. I also have to appreciate the absurdness of some of the job titles they hand out in teams front offices, I could have made up those positions and you would not have been any wiser.
 
 

Corey Kluber


 
 
Corey Kluber, Cy Young winner, perfect robot, and the destroyer of Twins hitters hopes and dreams himself. This inhuman wrecking machine was obtained in a 3 team trade in 2010 between the Padres, Indians, and Cardinals. The Indians received Kluber, the Cardinals received Nick Greenwood, and the Padres obtained Ryan Ludwick. Nick Greenwood was worth -0.2 rWAR in the 36 innings he threw for the Cardinals while Ryan Ludwick put up a .659 OPS over 2 years with the Padres before being dropped on the Pirates. Oh yeah, and that Corey Kluber guy has done OK for the Indians so far.
 
For the life of me, I cannot figure out how Kluber became what he is now. At the time of the trade, he was just a body in the Padres system and wasn’t even ranked in their top 30 prospect list. He had a career minor league record of 18-24 when traded and was somehow even worse in his first stint with Cleveland’s AAA team. Apparently, he learned how to throw a sinker in 2011 and then won a Cy Young just 3 years later. So take that as a lesson, kids at home, just add one of the best sinkers in MLB and you too can win a Cy Young.
 
It’s a bit of a disappointing conclusion to draw from Kluber, but basically, we can just say that sometimes it’s the guys who aren’t major prospects who can turn into stars. If I had to assign a player for the Twins that would be their “Kluber”, it would Kohl Stewart. Stewart was initially a better prospect than Kluber but fell so far recently that the Twins were perfectly OK with any team taking him for their own during the rule 5 draft. Since then, he worked his way up through the system until he made his MLB debut in 2018 and became a personal favorite Twin of mine. He even features a similar sinker/cutter combo that has made Kluber an unstoppable pitching machine but lacks the true dominating breaking ball that makes Kluber so ridiculous.
 
 

Trevor Bauer


 
 
The most scientific man in baseball was a solid innings eater early in his career until he broke out in 2018 and changed to really, we have to worry about another one of these bastards now? And now we don’t even have Oswaldo Arcia to stop him, such a shame. Bauer was originally the 3rd overall pick in the 2011 draft out of UCLA. But he was actually taken by the D-Backs, in case you forgot. He was acquired by the Indians in yet another 3 team trade, this time in 2012. Bauer went to the Indians along with Matt Albers, Bryan Shaw, and Drew Stubbs, while Didi Gregorius, Tony Sipp, and Lars Anderson went to the D-Backs, and the Reds received Shin Soo-Choo and Jason Donald. Now, that is way more players than I feel like analyzing, but Cleveland made out pretty well here if I do say so myself.
 
Bauer’s path to the majors is a bit more straightforward, he was a top pick from college and moved as quickly as you would expect a top college arm could move. His status as a prospect was always top and while he was just a good pitcher for a while instead of a great one, he became the true thinking man’s pitcher in 2018 thanks in part to a new slider he developed himself.
 
 
Seems simple enough for the Twins to follow here right? Just use an incredibly high pick on an elite starter that sees the game like few pitchers do and is as dedicated to his craft like I am dedicated to the bagel shop on my campus. The closest comparison I can think of is Jose Berrios, Berrios was also a first round pick who is ridiculously dedicated to improving and has more work ethic in his left pinky than I have in my entire body. While Bauer is the better hurler of a round object at high speeds, Berrios has the kind of talent that even Phil Cuzzi could see and could become even better if Wes Johnson and the boys crack his secret code.
 
 

Mike Clevinger


 
 
The man from Florida who looks like a man from California, Mike was originally taken by the Angels in 2011 before they traded him to Cleveland in 2014 for the guy who sounds more like an extra in “Goodfellas” than a baseball pitcher, Vinnie Pestano. Clevinger actually pitched for the Cedar Rapids Kernels who are now the affiliate for the Twins. I have nothing else to add to that, I just thought it was neat. This was just about the definition of a throwaway trade at the time it occurred, but oh man should we really hate the Angels for this one. Clevinger went from an ERA over 5 in class A to you have got to be joking me, they have another really good starter now?
 
Clevinger was kind of on people’s radars as he was ranked the 17th best prospect in the Angels organization at the start of 2014, but his numbers up to that point were incredibly whelming. Much like Kluber, he was a guy that the Indians saw and thought that maybe with a tweak here and there, he could become something in the future. And credit to Clevinger, he was apparently all ears about doing whatever he had to do to succeed.
 
This is another kind of tough one to draw a conclusion from because “just find a guy who is a few changes that no one else can see away from being elite” isn’t really a good blueprint for success or at least not a consistent one. Considering that I have already forced myself to find comparisons for each guy, I will go with Jhoan Duran as the Twins’ “Clevinger”. Duran is a much better prospect than what Clevinger was but also switched teams in a trade during the season. So far in his short time in Cedar Rapids (hint hint), Duran has dominated hitters and looks to move up to high A Fort Myers soon. I hope he doesn't mind that I now have him pegged as the next Clevinger, no pressure there kid.
 
 

Carlos Carrasco


 
 
The cookie monster was originally taken by the Phillies in 2003 out of Venezuela. In his first spring training, he ate Domino’s pizza every day for 90 straight days because he didn’t know what else to order in English. I don’t know how he did that considering that Domino’s pizza tastes like the cardboard box it comes in, but to each his own I guess. Carrasco was also acquired in 2009 in a trade (I’m noticing a pattern) along with some other forgettable dudes for Ben Francisco and Cliff Lee. Carrasco was the top prospect for the Phillies and was ranked as the 41st best prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America that year.
 
Carrasco’s journey to be who he is now took a while as he struggled with injuries and not being effective early on in his MLB career. Despite starting his MLB career in 2009, it took Carrasco until 2015 to pitch more than 150 innings in a season. The Indians took a very conservative approach by using him out of the bullpen often in 2013 and 2014 after he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2012. After working his arm back up, they unleashed him as a starter and he’s been a pain in the Twins’ ass ever since.
 
Let’s see here, a top prospect, underwent Tommy John surgery, used out of the bullpen at first… Folks, we already have the next Carrasco here in Fernando Romero. Romero arguably has the nastiest stuff in the Twins system but still needs to learn how to refine his game and be the nightmare pitcher we all know he can be. While it seems that Romero is all but destined for the bullpen in 2019, it could be that the Twins still plan on using him as a starter long term and will be in the rotation in 2020 when more spots become available.
 
 

Shane Bieber


 
 
The Biebs was taken in the 2016 draft which was the very last one Derek Falvey participated in for Cleveland before leaving for the Twin Cities. He was taken in the 4th round out of college and moved pretty quickly due to being a college starter and having some ridiculous minor league numbers (.6 BB/9, 2.24 ERA).
 
The Biebs is a much more simple guy to track here, he was taken by Cleveland and moved up their ranks quickly as he continued to perform well at every level. He rose up prospect lists last year thanks to his incredible command and was a top 100 prospect by most publications by the time he made his debut for the Indians.
 
Who’s the Shane Bieber for the Twins? That’s an interesting one to think of because the front office under Falvey and Levine really haven’t taken many college arms with top picks. This is a bit of a reach, but I’ll pick Blayne Enlow as the Twins’ “Shane Bieber”. Enlow was taken out of high school but was a 3rd round pick partly because the Twins saved enough signing bonus money in the Royce Lewis pick to pay over the slot for Enlow and coax him out of going to the collegiate ranks. While Enlow is still just 19, his projections have received much praise from scouts and being able to handle low A ball as a 19-year-old is pretty impressive. While it will still be a few more years before Enlow probably makes the majors, he could be an important piece in a future Twins rotation.
 
There it is, the 5 pitchers that make up the current Indians’ starting staff and how they got there along with their Twins counterparts. 4 out of the 5 guys were not originally taken by the Indians and 2 out of the 5 guys were never really big prospects at all while the other 3 were. Probably the most interesting thing to note is that none of these guys were big free agent signings or acquired via trade as veterans and only Bauer had any experience pitching at the MLB level for another team. Is it any coincidence that Falvey has been a stickler for adding long term solutions to the starting rotation so far in his tenure? Pineda, Odorizzi, and Perez were all obtained with 2 years of team control, but the plan so far has been to shy away from major rotation upgrades in the long term.
 
Looking into 2020, the current rotation is Jose Berrios and possibly Martin Perez if they pick up his option. Odorizzi, Gibson, and Pineda are all set to be gone, leaving up to 4 holes to be filled. Looking ahead also, the starting pitchers available in free agency after the 2019 season are very tasty, to say the least. Go take a quick look, you won’t be disappointed. But now that we know what Falvey did to build his most impressive rotation, will the Twins even bother with free agency then? The Cubs built a successful rotation through free agency in their World Series winning team, but I don’t believe the Twins will follow that same route. Instead, they will run with Jose Berrios, Kohl Stewart, Fernando Romero, Jhoan Duran, and Blayne Enlow, to take them to the World Series and you can bet on that.

In the midst of all the talk about Sano and his weight, I got to thinking about the judgments that people make about other people – baseball players and their size – think Altuve or Randy Johnson, their weight, their various physical attributes – like my essay on Pete Gray who over came the fact that he lacked an arm or Jim Abbot and others judged to be handicapped. Perhaps it is the fact that my daughter is deaf that made me think about Dummy Hoy.
“Dummy” Hoy – William Ellsworth Hoy – was known as Dummy because he contracted meningitis at age three and was deaf the rest of his life. And deafness denies the ability to mimic speech so he was also “dumb” or unable to speak. Born in 1862 – during the civil war, he grew up in the same era that baseball grew up.
 
Sent to a school for the deaf in Ohio, he was trained as a cobbler and he had the initiative to go from working in the back of a shop to owning his own shoe shop. The school, like many others felt that a deaf and dumb person was not capable of doing much more than fixing shoes and even then, some people refused to have such a handicapped person fix their shoes. But he persevered, and he also took advantage of the fact that many people went shoeless in the summer and he followed his passion to play baseball. By age of 24, his love of baseball and his constant work on baseball skills attracted a scout and led him to professional baseball, first with a minor league team in Oshkosh, WI under HOF manager Frank Selee and then in 1888 with the Washington Senators. ! As a rookie he stole 82 bases and that record stood until the Ricky Henderson, Maury Will, Vince Coleman era. In his second-year major league season he had OBP of 376m scored 98 runs and stole 33 bases.
 
His career was not a gimmick like the midget of Bill Veeck’s carnival promotions with the St Louis Browns. Dummy Hoy played major league baseball until 1902 and accumulated 32.5 WAR.
 
He also demanded respect and turned down an offer from the Milwaukee Brewers (1880’s team) because the manager laughed at the idea of a deaf/mute thinking he could play baseball. In his career (14 years) he had 2048 hits, a .288 batting average, 596 stolen bases, and a .386 OBPAs a fielder he threw out three men at home in one game and had 45 assists for the White Stockings in 1901.
 
In addition to being deaf and never hearing the roar of the crowd, the call of the umpire, or the sound of his teammates, he was also at a disadvantage as a player who was 5’ 4” and 150 pounds! Jose Altuve would love him.
 
Lacking all the electronics of todays’ ballpark, Hoy was at a disadvantage, not being able to hear the umpire call balls and strikes. He asked his 3B coach to signal the ball and strike call to him and eventually got various signals to coordinate with teammates. Asking the umpires to use hand signals began the current system umpires use for outs, strikes, balls, fouls. But the HOF credits umpire Bill Klem for this even though Klem came after Dummy Hoy retired.
 
The fans, appreciating his skill and determination did not yell and scream when he did something outstanding, instead they stood and waved their arms and hats in salute. He later replied, “It is not enough that the deaf candidate for baseball honors has the necessary ability, he assuredly must have the nerve and courage to even apply for a trial.”
 
He finished his career with the minor league Los Angeles LooLoos of the Pacific Coast League with 156 runs, 46 stolen bses and 419 put outs. But in many ways his final play in his career was the most amazing of all professional players. A ball was hit deeply to the outfield and in those days, fans were allowed to stand in the outfield – often there was no fence. He was determined and charged into the fans in very deep centerfield and when he encountered a horse, he jumped on the horses back, and then he used the horse as a springboard to leap and catch the ball!
 
With a deaf wife, they raised to very successful hearing children and he took on the raising of his nephew when he was orphaned at three. That nephew went on to establish the Helm’s bakery and become a millionaire who supported the Olympics. Hoy was put in the Cincinnati Reds HOF – in 1896 while playing for the Reds he led the league in homeruns with FOUR. He was also named in the Deaf Athletes HOF and should be in the MLB HOF. Former teammates – Honus Wagner, Connie Mack, Clark Griffith, and Sam Crawford – all in the HOF – tried unsuccessfully to get him in. In 1961 he tossed out the first pitch in the third game of the World Series and died in December of that year.
 
The number of deaf players is very small but perseverance will mean that there will be more. http://www.infobarrel.com/Deaf_Baseball_Players_Who_Made_the_Major_Leagues

The Minnesota Twins reportedly offered Yu Darvish $100 million over four years to be the ace of their starting pitching staff. Instead, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine invested almost the same amount of money in three players who make them better than Darvish could have.
 
This was originally published at FoulPlaybyPlay.com.
 
Darvish signed with the Cubs for five years and $126 million guaranteed and for good reason. He’s projected to be worth 2.8 WARP for the Cubs. And the Cubs are one of those teams, along with the Astros, with their championship window wide open. The Twins’ championship window is just opening, but thanks to some clever spending, that window is expected to open up even more for the Twins this season.
 
On March 4, Jim Bowden reported that the Twins would be unlikely to sign any of the top remaining free agent starters on the market, including Lance Lynn, who declined a qualifying offer from the Cardinals in the amount of $17.4 million. Six days later the Twins signed Lynn for one year at $12 million. Lynn called the two-year, $12-million offer from the Twins “non-starter” just days earlier, but a lack of long-term offers with Spring Training in full swing made a one-year deal worth $12 million look pretty good for a pitcher entering his second season removed from Tommy John surgery.
 
Overnight, according to Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projections, the Twins went from 82 wins and out of the playoffs to 83 wins and in. But despite an appearance in the American League Wild Card game last season, the Twins were projected as a .500 team prior to spending the money they had reserved for Darvish.
 
In another affordable surprise, Falvey and Levine scored free agent first baseman and designated hitter Logan Morrison for one year and $5.5 million. Morrison hit a career high 38 home runs last season -- good for 2.8 WARP. He’s been projected to be worth one win more than a replacement player.
 
The Twins wouldn’t have likely traded for Jake Odorizzi had they landed Darvish, either. He’s been projected to be worth .7 wins above a replacement player at a measly $6.3 million this season and is still eligible for arbitration next year. Add it all up and you’ll find Morrison, Odorizzi and Lynn to be worth just a tenth of a win less than Darvish at $1.2 million less than the Twins were willing to pay Darvish.
 
Consider the 1.2 wins added by the combination of Fernando Rodney and Addison Reed at the back of the Twins’ bullpen, and you not only have a playoff-bound roster, but a formidable playoff foe that can shock an American League divisional champion. Remember, they could get Michael Pineda back for the playoffs. They’re paying him just $2 million this season while he recovers from Tommy John surgery.
 
If Jose Berrios becomes the ace arm the Twins expect entering the playoffs, they’ll have a starting pitcher who can win them a Wild Card game. And even if he isn’t the ace the Twins expect, Ervin Santana or Lance Lynn could win that game.
 
The Twins’ rotation can now hang with anyone in a five- or seven-game series. A playoff rotation of Santana, Berrios, Lynn and Odorizzi can finally hang with the Yankees’ Tanaka, Severino, Gray and Sabathia or the Astros’ Keuchel, Verlander, Cole and McCullers.
 
The Twins are going to be one of the top three teams in runs scored with the addition of Morrison. They were second in runs scored in the second half last year without Morrison. They’re also going to be one of the top three defensive teams in baseball, which will make Lynn, Odorizzi, Reed and Rodney very happy to be in Minnesota.
Falvey and Levine won the offseason for the Twins. They recognized the perceived values of free agents were inflated for whatever reason -- whether it be collusion or analytical analism -- and they were rewarded for not overpaying Darvish. They managed to do all this without adding a single contract beyond 2019.
 
The Twins enter the season with a franchise-record payroll around $130 million, but will have just under $56 million on the books entering the epic offseason that will likely feature free agents Clayton Kershaw, Josh Donaldson, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Nelson Cruz, Charlie Blackmon, Dallas Keuchel, Zach Britton, Cody Allen, Craig Kimbrel and Andrew Miller.

The Minnesota Twins are, just like the 26 other major league teams, watching the final four postseason clubs compete for a World Series victory. Unlike each and every one of those teams however, the hometown club may have just made the move of the offseason. John Manuel, former Editor in Chief for Baseball America, is now a Pro Scout for the Derek Falvey regime (or he will be as of November 1).
 
You don't know who John Manuel is you say? Well then, let me introduce you. When it comes to great baseball minds, especially those plugged in among prospects, there isn't a better tier than the one Manuel is on. This man is more connected throughout the game than is even possible to explain. Baseball America has long been the premier outlet for all things prospecting, and it's because of his leadership that the website has cultivated such strong sources and content over the years.
 
As Manuel noted himself in his post on Facebook, he's watched previous staffers join other organizations, and he's given Falvey plenty of recommendations over the years. This time however, it was his turn, and he wanted to join the team. At a Baseball Prospectus event this summer, Thad Levine talked of how the Twins may not outspend other clubs on free agents, but they'll utilize their resources to make sure they have the best internal team in place. We've already seen exciting turnover in the front office, but it probably doesn't get any better than Manuel.
 
The Twins find themselves at an incredibly important time in the history of the franchise. With arguably the greatest assembly of youth and veteran talent since they last won a World Series, this team is poised to go place. Needing to be supplemented from outside with a few key pieces, as well as best utilizing a still strong farm system, the arrow should be pointing straight up. As Manuel enters, his goal will not only be to continue to identify those players to bring into the organization, but the ones that make sense to part with or advance other areas.
 
Under Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, the Twins exceeded expectations the first year. The volatility of youth played out in that the team returned to a more realistic version of itself, as opposed to the 103 loss season a year prior. Now with more experience and growth under their belts as a whole, and the AL Central opening up to a certain extent, Minnesota should be on everyones radar going forward. It is in this offseason, that the ball will begin rolling to suggest what is next to come for the organization.
 
If the hiring of John Manuel is any indication of what's to come, you should bet that this Twins club is in incredibly good hands. We may not see a deal offered to Yu Darvish this winter, or Bryce Harper next, but the understanding that those influencing decisions in the front office is the best it's ever been should be a given. For the first time in what may seem like the club's history, Minnesota has transformed itself into a forward thinking, and cutting edge organization, and that should absolutely fire you up.
 
Welcome aboard John Manuel, and we look forward to watching you get to work.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

It looks as though Twins fans may finally get their wish, as Mitch Garver is headed to the big leagues according to Ray Birmingham.
 
https://twitter.com/BirminghamRay/status/898395795552063488
 
Birmingham is the head coach of the University of New Mexico Lobos baseball team, where Garver played from 2010-13 before the Minnesota Twins took him in the ninth round of the 2013 draft.
 
UPDATE: Garver's mother has also retweeted the original tweet.
UPDATE II: Gail also tweeted that they'll be in Minneapolis for tomorrow's game, and that Mitch's wife is already here on rotations (work?).
 
The Twins have not yet announced a move, nor a corresponding move which will most likely be Robbie Grossman to the disabled list with a broken thumb.
 
The Twins added Garver to the 40-man roster over the offseason, and he has responded in a big way by hitting .291/.387/.541 with the Red Wings while playing mostly catcher (67 games) but also some at first base (five games) and even in left field (14 games).
 
Please click through to Zone Coverage for the full story here.

On August 5 at Target Field, Baseball Prospectus embarked on the bowels of the stadium to have an in depth discussion with General Manager Thad Levine. Speaking on the course of the season as a whole, and the plans for what lies ahead, there were a few key indications as to what changes may be coming for the Minnesota franchise. Arguably chief among them is that the Twins will win as they fine tune their process.
 
During the course of the conversation, Levine discussed the fact that both he and Derek Falvey didn't immediately ask to skyrocket the Twins payroll. While they are aware funds are available to them, they'll be making a conscious effort to spend wisely on the guts of the organization, to make the on field product improve. This transition began to rear its head recently, as the departures of Jack Goin (head of what amounts to analytics) and a handful of area scouts were moved on from.
 
Levine noted that the Twins Analytics Department currently consisted of four full time employees, and that it could swell to nearly double in size a year from now. On the scouting front, he talked pregame Sunday that it was necessary to retain those let go through the draft and trade deadline, before transitioning to the future. It's in these internal areas that the Twins can carve out somewhat of a competitive advantage.
 
Over the offseason, Minnesota will find themselves in a position to spend for the first time in nearly a decade. A team with an opportunity at a realistic playoff run, supplementing from outside makes a ton of sense. While they're almost certain to be out on big name fish like Yu Darvish, they'll land more middle ground options to help the club take the next step. In making sure those brought in both fit, and elevate the club, Minnesota will lean on those internal departments to help dissect decision making.
 
Minnesota has already been able to employ different practices and strategies brought in by the new front office. It was noted that the Analytics Department played a very integral role in the recently completed MLB Draft. Figuring out the probability of players lasting past a certain round, to deciding what level of success a guy may have, baseball was being married from an eye test to what the numbers also suggested.
 
It's in this strategy that Minnesota can begin to shape its future. Given the perceived volatility for players hovering in the middle ground, a more forward thinking process will hopefully give the club a higher ceiling for success. Levine and Falvey will look to employ an organization full of forward thinkers looking to squeeze out every bit of advantage the team can find. Although the dollars may not be spent on the big splash free agent, the hope would be that a commitment to spending from all angles will produce more fruit from each acquisition the club makes.
 
Looking back at how the organization has been run for years, this is a pretty drastic deviation and something Twins fans will likely look upon with favor. There's no doubt the transition will come with some hiccups, but finding a competitive advantage for an organization that has made the middle ground home, is something you'd be hard pressed not to get behind.
 
We've already seen some of the internal transition begin. I fully expect a new manager and a handful of other positions to experience turnover in the coming months. What will be worth monitoring, is where each player brought in can squeeze out that extra bit of success that the process will have dictated they are capable. This new regime is beginning to put their stamp on things, and in the years ahead, that should prove favorably for fans across Twins Territory.
 
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Over the course of the past three seasons, no young player has been more polarizing for the Minnesota Twins than Eddie Rosario. Despite being an early adopter on his bandwagon, and ready for a breakout in 2015, I've been nothing short of a skeptic since 2016 and beyond. In 2017 however, he's having his best offensive year as a big leaguer, and small tweaks are the big story.
 
After a slow first two weeks to start the season (in which Rosario slashed just .186/.239/.209), he's been a necessary lineup fixture for Minnesota. Despite being consistently tied to a high likelihood of chasing pitches and flailing outside of the zone, he's seemingly been intent upon abandoning those descriptors and has turned over a new leaf. From April 18 until July 17, Rosario owns a .307/.341/.508 slash line. While he's still struck out significantly more than he's walked (51/13), the ratio has turned for the better on both sides.
Over the three years he's spent in the big leagues, the drastic strides at the plate this season are showing themselves numerically. Owning a 24.9% and 25.7% strikeout rate the past two seasons, he's cut the number to just 19.5% in 2017. He's struck out less because of having gone from a 14.5% swinging strike rate in 2015 (and 15.3% last year), to 12.6% this season. Swinging at less pitches out of the zone (38% in 2017 as opposed to 45.6% in 2015) is no doubt going to raise the water level as well.
 
During his debut season, only the Red Sox Pablo Sandoval (47.8%) and the Orioles Adam Jones (46.5%) chased pitches out of the zone more often than Rosario's 45.6%. Swinging through 14.5% of pitches he took a hack at, Rosario also fared 10th worst in baseball among hitters in 2015. Thanks to his increased discipline, he now ranks 17th lowest in baseball when it comes to chase rate (bad, but much improved), as well as 41st in SwStr% (which is a big leap). As witnessed by his swings and misses outside of the zone since 2015 as well, pitch recognition is something he's vastly improved upon.
 
While Rosario is far from an elite hitter at this point, it's no coincidence that his slight changes have helped to post his first big league OPS above .300. As things stand currently, he also paces the Twins with a .289 average. Still a work in progress, enough can't be made about the strides Rosario has made at the plate for Minnesota.
 
Unfortunately, the downside to the offensive growth is the defensive slide. After tallying a ridiculous 12 assists from left field to go along with 10 defensive runs saved, he's fallen off. In 2016, his big league efforts resulted in basically a league average fielder, and this season, he's been worth -7 DRS and -2.2 UZR. Although Twins fans have dealt with the likes of Robbie Grossman, Josh Willingham, and Delmon Young in left field, Rosario hasn't been any sort of steadying presence this campaign either.
 
There can't be enough noise made about how important Rosario's offensive changes have been. As the defense now holds him back, the wonder continues to be whether he can put it all together. Rosario at his best presents a dream outfield scenario for the Twins, but he'll need to present the reassurance that he's still capable of that. It's pretty crazy to think that we'd reach a point of Rosario being fine offensively while lacking in the outfield, but here we are. Minnesota needs him to come full circle, and doing so soon would be a nice boost.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Way back in October 2016, I ranked the Twins Top 15 prospects (found here). While there wasn't a number one prospect in all of baseball like Byron Buxton, there's still a lot to like in the organization from top to bottom. Now with the 2017 Major League Baseball draft behind us, and the minor league slate half over, it's time to reassess the group as a whole.
 
Going from 15 to 1, the group has seen some movement, and there's been some really strong performances thus far in 2017. We could see a few of these names graduate from the group yet this year, and the Twins could find help internally from the farm. With that said, here we go:
 
15. Mitch Garver C
 
Garver just missed out on this list prior to 2017, but has continued to command attention. I opined there was some steam to him making the club out of spring training, and he's probably next in line behind John Ryan Murphy. Garver owns an .808 OPS at Triple-A Rochester in 40 G this season, and has some positional flexibility being able to play 1B as well. He has strong caught stealing numbers, and can defend behind the plate at an above average level. There's reason to believe that Garver should finish the season in Minnesota.
 
14. Daniel Palka OF
 
For a time Palka looked like he could push for an early promotion to the big leagues in 2017. His production dipped a bit, and now he's on the DL with a .768 OPS. Power is always going to be his calling card, and he was off to a nice start with eight homers through his first 41 games. The strikeout numbers are only going to rise at the big league level, so he'll have to do more work to draw a consistent amount of walks.
 
13. Lewis Thorpe SP
 
Getting back on the mound after missing the past two seasons, Thorpe has picked up where he left off. Through his first four starts at Fort Myers, he owns a 2.12 ERA and a 12.7 K/9 to go with a 2.6 BB/9. He looked good at Cedar Rapids prior to his Tommy John surgery, and it seems he's rebounded well. The Twins will no doubt have the 21 year old on an innings limit (and he's never thrown more than 71.2 IP in a season), so he'll likely end 2017 at High-A.
 
12. Jake Reed RP
 
Had he stayed healthy out of the gate, Reed would probably be with the Twins already. He suffered an injury on the final day of spring training, and lost a few months of work. Now back healthy, he made quick work of a brief return to Double-A and is back at Triple-A Rochester. Reed has an electric fastball, and solid movement on his pitches. He's a big league reliever with the ability to move towards the back end of the bullpen.
 
11. Wander Javier SS
 
Yet to play in 2017, Javier is likely destined for the GCL. He missed a good amount of time in the Dominican Summer League last year, but remains an incredible physical specimen. Watching him in Fort Myers this spring, I have doubts as to whether he can stick at short simply because of his growth. He's bulked up a good amount, and the power potential already flashes big time. The Twins have no shortage of shortstop prospects, but Javier is among the best of them.
 
10. Tyler Jay RP
 
Unfortunately for the former 6th overall pick, health hasn't been something easy to come by. Jay was slated to work solely as a reliever this year, and should be at Triple-A by now at worst. He's on the DL again however, and pitched just two innings at Double-A prior to being shelved. If he can stay on the field, the velocity and stuff play out of the pen, but he needs to get a clean bill of health first.
 
9. Blayne Enlow SP
 
Taken with the Twins pick at 76th overall in the 2017 MLB draft, Enlow is a prep pitcher with an arrow pointing straight up. He's got a strong fastball that can sit mid-90's, and a host of different outlets called his curveball among the best in the draft. Enlow should have top of the rotation starter potential for the Twins, and ends up being a great value pick for them.
 
8. Travis Blankenhorn 3B
 
Since being selected in the 3rd round of the 2015 draft, all Blankenhorn has done is rise in the Twins prospect ranks. He owns an .804 OPS in 66 games with Cedar Rapids this year, and the power has started to play. With 12 doubles and eight homers already, he's a corner infielder that can drive the ball out of the park. Blankenhorn could push for a late season promotion to the Miracle, and at just 20 years old, he's got plenty of developing left to do.
 
7. Felix Jorge SP
 
At the time of this writing, we've already had at least one opportunity where the Twins could've called upon Jorge. Realistically, he probably could use a stop at Triple-A, but making the jump from Chattanooga isn't out of the question. He owns a 3.35 ERA across 13 starts this season, and has compiled a 6.2 K/9 with a 2.5 BB/9. Jorge doesn't have much in the form of strikeout stuff, and he's not going to blow big league hitters away, but he can pitch, and doesn't miss his spots. Expecting him to get a few turns with Minnesota this year is a good bet.
 
6. Brent Rooker OF/1B
 
With their first comp pick in the 2017 MLB Draft, the Twins took the SEC Triple Crown winner from Mississippi State. Rooker can hit, and whether or not he can hit at the professional level will determine his fate. 23 already, Minnesota will move him aggressively. He'll be at Fort Myers for the bulk of 2017, and could push for time with the Twins as early as 2018. Finding him a position, either in the corner outfield or at first, remains a question but the bat should be expected to play. The Twins will likely go with a sink or swim approach to Rooker and have a good idea of what they've got quickly, but I believe there's something special here.
 
5. Alex Kirilloff OF
 
The 2016 first round pick is missing the season due to Tommy John surgery. After suffering the injury late in the 2016 season and being shut down, it's not ideal how long it took for Minnesota to address the root of the problem. Regardless, Kirilloff has time on his side, and he'll have the success of a strong pro debut in his back pocket. Look for him to make an impact in the lower levels of the farm a year from now.
 
4. Fernando Romero SP
 
Quite possibly the Twins lone ace prospect, Romero is one of the most intriguing pitchers in all of minor league baseball. He can push his fastball near triple digits, and the command is something he's beginning to hone in on. With a 3.27 ERA through his first 13 starts for Double-A Chattanooga, he's another guy that the Twins could be looking to bump up a level sooner rather than later.
 
3. Stephen Gonsalves SP
 
After getting a late start to the year due to injury, Gonsalves has come out of the gate firing. In six starts, he's posted a solid 3.18 ERA, but more impressive is his 11.1 K/9 and the 2.1 BB/9. Gonsalves had a few bouts of command issues during his initial call to Double-A in 2016, but those appear to be all but behind him. While he may not have the upper 90's fastball, his repertoire puts him in the conversation for a very nice rotation piece in the years to come.
 
2. Royce Lewis SS
 
If I was to include Lewis on this list prior to 2017, he'd likely have been number one. He just misses out on the top spot now, but the top pick in the 2017 MLB Draft should make Twins fans salivate. He can hit, hit for power, and field well above average at shortstop. The tools are all there for a star in the making, and while he's no less than four years away from the Twins, he'll be one of the top prospects in baseball for the majority of that time.
 
1. Nick Gordon SS
 
There's no Twins prospect that has been more impressive than Gordon in 2017. In his first 64 games at the Double-A Level, he owns an .880 OPS and is batting .315. Gordon has clubbed six homers, doubling his previous career season high, and he's already just two doubles away (21) from tying that career high as well. For someone that was noted as a glove first prospect when he was drafted, he's bounced between second and short, now settling back in at shortstop, and all he has done is rake. I'd still like to see him cut down on the errors, but Gordon is continuing to look more and more like a potential All Star.
 
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Let me preface with the reality that fandom comes in different shapes and sizes. I realize there are those that are more casual observers, and there are diehards. There are those who watch the game, and then there are those that know the game. Simply defining someone watching Minnesota Twins baseball as a fan doesn't do the categorization justice. When it comes to the 2017 home nine though, there seems to be a growing and unfortunate confusion.
 
Arguably the most frustrating notion is that this team is destined to be bad because, well, they lost 103 games last season. That's absolutely a fact regarding the loss total, outside of that, the statement couldn't be less confusing. Given the Twins emerged from nowhere in 2015 and won 83 games finishing 2nd in the AL Central, how can that be immediately dismissed?
 
In 2016, Paul Molitor had virtually the same starting infield as he did the year prior (save for Eduardo Escobar replacing Danny Santana at shortstop). He had a new outfield that consisted of Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, and Eddie Rosario as opposed to the 2015 contingent of Oswaldo Arcia, Jordan Schafer, and Torii Hunter. Picking up the extra at bats as the designated hitter was Byungho Park instead of the replaced Kennys Vargas from 2015. As a whole, the Opening Day lineup remained a virtual clone.
 
On the mound, Tyler Duffey replaced Mike Pelfrey in the big league rotation. The bullpen was thrown together with relatively similar pieces, and Molitor had a couple of new coaches at his disposal. What held true though was that nothing was truly groundbreaking.
 
Here's the thing though, in 2015 the Twins overachieved significantly. Virtually all metrics suggested regression was coming, and the fact of the matter was there were too many placeholders to simply fill all of the holes. If 2015 gave you as a fan hope for 2016, you were likely as misguided as suggesting 2016 is a precursor for the season to come.
 
So Jose Berrios, Byron Buxton, and Miguel Sano are prospects you've heard about forever and haven't produced to the level you perceived? Is it incredibly surprising that a 22 year-old and two 23 year-old's are taking a bit longer to adjust at the big league level? Of course it isn't. Sano already has 40 career homers under his belt, Berrios has made a handful of starts, and Buxton is already playing Gold Glove caliber defense. At 23 years old, Kirby Puckett was at Single-A and Johan Santana was a reliever with a career 5.90 ERA.
 
Exposure has given us a heightened level of insight into young prospects. There's lists, articles, Twitter, and countless other sources of information for the game's next stars. You may hear about a player earlier, but that doesn't change the adjustment period, or the reality that knowledge beyond those sources is key to understanding how quickly a kid may take to a man's game.
 
Rounding out the trio of complaints is the one that encompasses both the overlooking of past results, and well as current roster construction. Why didn't Derek Falvey and Thad Levine come in and do more this offseason? The long and short of it is that they didn't have to. Both astute baseball minds, they realize this club is going to need to be carried by the likes of the Sano's and Buxton's. Signing a big bat, or a major arm, prior to the young guys being ready to shoulder more of the load, is a wasted year.
 
Going into the offseason, I suggested multiple times that standing pat would be a good place for the Twins. I was interested in Wilson Ramos pre-injury. Jason Castro emerged, and then made immediate sense. He helps to address pitching and defense, is a low cost signing, and can hit at least to the level Kurt Suzuki was capable of. Outside of that, a throw in reliever until some of the young arms made sense. Minnesota has really strong relief prospects, and blocking them with significant retread veterans never would have been a good idea.
 
Right now, the Twins executed everything as they needed to, and really, it's on you to see that. There's no one suggesting this club is making the playoffs, and even a .500 record would be a nice bonus. They aren't close to a 59 win team though, and the reasoning is relatively simple. The youth will continue to develop, and banking on those names you've heard forever to be stars is still a good bet. Finally, when it comes time to supplement with outside talent (and Minnesota is close to that point), then Falvey and Levine will be aware of the fact they are building, and not rebuilding.
 
Don't miss the boat, and don't throw out baseless frustration. Whether comment sections, casual discussion, Twitter, or some other place is your stomping ground, have a little foundation to stand upon when considering what is being brought to the table. Baseball is a sport that allows you to consume it in multiple different ways. Understanding that opinions are also a reflection of that is a must.
 
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Following their 46th loss of the season, Paul Molitor informed reported that the Minnesota Twins would be welcoming Danny Santana back after a rehab assignment. That move was also met with the announcement that Minnesota would designate Oswaldo Arcia for assignment, his time with the Twins has come to an end. It might be a mercy rule for both sides however, as both parties deserved better.
 
For the Twins, Arcia was signed as an amateur free agent back in 2007. He landed on prospect lists prior to the 2013 season, and saw his highest ranking at 41st on Baseball America's list. A hulking slugger, he was never expected to play the field well, but the belief was that his back would make up for his defensive deficiencies. In part that happened for the Twins, but not significantly enough for a guy who has been worth -31 DRS across nearly 2,000 major league innings.
 
Over the course of his Twins career, Arcia has been worth a combined -0.5 fWAR. He hit 40 homers and ripped 37 doubles. His career .240/.303/.429 slash line was reflective of a guy that faded from 34 homers across his first two seasons. Summarizing his time with the Twins, Minnesota would be hard pressed to put a word other than underwhelming on it.
 
For Arcia, the story is similar, his time having to interact with the Twins has to feel underwhelming as well. After putting up 14 and 20 home runs in his first two seasons respectively, the Twins began their bungling of Arcia's development a season ago. After just 19 games, and 58 at bats, Minnesota determined that it had seen enough. Despite a career his .276 average, Arcia's .718 OPS was a career low. He had hit just two homers, and those longballs represented his lone extra base hits. From a power threat, Minnesota expected more.
 
Upon being relegated to Triple-A, the notion was that Arcia had to prove it or risk spending the rest of the year in Rochester. He went on a torrid home run stretch for a brief period, but unfortunately his final slash line rested at .199/.257/.372 across 79 Triple-A contests. He hit just 12 homers on the season, and was never a realistic option for the Twins during a postseason push.
 
To start 2016, Arcia found himself on the 25 man, in part because Minnesota wasn't yet at a point ready to cut ties. The notion that he was in DFA purgatory played out through the season's first third. In 66 games, he was given just 27 starts, and found action in a whopping 32. His 103 at bats produced a lackluster .214/.289/.369 slash line and his defense remained poor. The results were underwhelming, but so were the opportunities.
 
At this point, both sides deserve something better than what they have given each other. Arcia has been one of the most under-developed and poorly used Twins in the past two seasons. When given opportunities however few and far between though, he's done little to mark that reality more of a focus. Right now, the best thing is for a separation of the two.
 
That scenario should be expected to play out. Still just 25 years old, Arcia is the kind of guy that plenty of big league teams will line up to take a flier on. In fact, a fit could come within the Twins division. With the Detroit Tigers recently losing J.D. Martinez, a poor fielder and good slugger in his own right, Arcia fits the profile on a much lesser scale. In fact, the Tigers might be able to see a former prospect of their own in the failed Twin.
 
Back in 2013, Avisail Garcia found himself on Baseball America's top 100 list, at number 74, behind Arcia. Once nicknamed "Minny Miggy," Garcia has never really been more than just a guy. Now playing with the White Sox, his career .695 OPS lags behind the .732 of Arcia's. Garcia has never matched Oswaldo's home run numbers, and Detroit was willing to give their former failed prospect 53 games worth of work from 2012-13. The Tigers could do a lot worse than a quick flier on someone they have seen plenty of over the past four years.
 
Regardless of where Oswaldo Arcia winds up, he shouldn't be expected to be David Ortiz 2.0 for the Twins. Although he won't spurn them to that level, Minnesota shouldn't find themselves off the hook either. They operated with a poor plan in regards to the Venezuelan, and what could have been will likely remain a question for a while.
 
If there's one good thing that comes out of this for the Twins, it's that the commitment to the kids seems to have taken a hold. Both Max Kepler and Byron Buxton remain on the big league roster. Rather than being sent back to Triple-A, the organization realizes it's time for them to sink or swim, and allowing them to figure it out against the highest level of competition is a must.
 
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