iTwins

Rogers, Pressly, Kintzler, and Belisle appear all but set. I'd prefer to see the 'pen rounded out with the likes of Tonkin, Chargois, and the best lefty between Melotakis, Boshers, or O'Rourke. Belisle took the role that I had Duffey penciled into - so I'd guess Duffey will get to head to AAA to start the year. If the team wanted to run 13 pitchers on the roster coming out of spring training, I could see that last battle coming down to Duffey vs. Haley (Realistically, unless Haley is terrible in spring, that's a battle he's going to win. Rule 5 pick vs a guy with options? Tough fight for Duffey to win.) At this point, I'm 100% in favor in running all the young arms out there. Lets see what this group can do at the big league level.

It has been an interesting saga to say the least - because on the surface a deal between the Dodgers and Twins made too much sense. However, while Dozier's value may never be higher, if the market has said the value is one prospect...I'd hesitate to pull the trigger too. (Once bitten, twice shy in the position player for one prospect deal - after Alex Meyer / Denard Span). It'll be fascinating to see if the Dodgers are embroiled in a close race come July, and Dozier is doing well, how these valuations change.

I've been a Plouffe fan for quite some time (after meeting with him and chatting during Twins Fest several years ago, I became a lifelong fan of his), so I was happy to see to he didn't get traded over the winter - although I think it would have made complete sense for the Twins to make such a move. Hopefully Sano adapts to the OF easily, and the Twins' gamble pays off. I'd like to see Plouffe be a part of this team for many more years. Edit: I got a chance to chat with Plouffe prior to his Saturday autograph session (he "likes to be punctual", and was there quite a bit ahead of Bruno and Vavra) and thought I'd add a few of his quips here. On the red uniforms: "They're.....very red." He added that maybe under the lights on Fridays, they'd look a bit better. He hedged a bit towards the end saying, "If they end up being lucky and we keep winning while we're wearing them, I don't care what they look like." On Twins Fest from a player's point of view: "They don't actually tell us what we're doing each day. They sort of stick a piece of paper in front of your face and then you're off. It's a lot of fun, but I basically never know where I'm going next." One funny note: When told he was playing Dozier in Jeopardy later in the day, he confidently laughed and said "I've got this. Unless it's about dirt roads or something dumb." I believe Plouffe defeated Dozier by 2,000 points. Must not have been a lot of dirt road questions.

I'd respectfully disagree with the premise that changes are needed. Most have acknowledged that Danny's numbers last year were a bit inflated (as indicated by his preposterously high .405 BABIP). However, his season has started with a bit of a suppressed BABIP (.286) in which Danny has been the victim of some great plays robbing him of hits (the Detroit series immediately comes to mind). In short, he's been a bit unlucky to start the year - the law of averages says that will balance out (maybe not .405, but a slight increase could be expected). Not to mention, his strikeout rate so far this year (31%) is well above his career numbers (22-23%). He's had some bad at bats, that's for sure, but his career numbers indicate that this may be more slump than a true problem. It's tempting to throw Escobar back into the starting SS role, especially given his strong spring and decent showing so far this year - but I'd be cautious in yanking Danny up and down the roster. I think that was an issue with the prior regime - and I think it hurt the development of some younger players. I'd like to see the team stick things out with Danny and let him learn on the job. He has to learn to hit big league pitching at some point in time, why not give him the shot now?

For what it's worth, I don't think the roster stays like this for very long. CF features Schafer / Robinson until Hicks proves himself ready or Rosario forces his way up (my money is on Eddie achieving his part first). Stauffer, Boyer and probably even Graham and Duensing aren't "stuck" in the 'pen. If any of them start to falter, the farm is loaded with other options. I don't see the Twins being hesitant to pull the trigger here when necessary. Herrmann is a nice utility guy that can also function as the emergency catcher. I doubt he'll have to catch too much, as I think that Pinto is only going to be in AAA long enough to make up for missed time due to injury this spring. After that, Herrmann or Nunez can stick as the bench guy with the other cast of or demoted. As a whole, the roster is a bit disappointing - especially when we're all waiting for the youth movement. However, Molitor doesn't seem to be the type that's going to stubbornly stick with the veterans when everything they aren't earning their keep - hopefully we'll see that to be true as the season plays out.

If I'm Terry Ryan (I'm not, but let's pretend) - I take all three guys who are "trying out" for the 5th starter role north to start the season. Of course, only one of them is actually a starter - Trevor May. Milone moves into the bullpen as a lefty long reliever - think Brian Duensing (I'm not entirely sure what you do with him...tendering him a contract last offseason was a misstep). Pelfrey heads to the 'pen as well. There's been multiple comparisons to Wade Davis - lite when it comes to Pelfrey - let's try it out. The bullpen has issues - that much is clear. Pelfrey becomes the mop up guy that Swarzak had been for the Twins. In the event of a short start or sudden injury, you have two other starting options (who are much better starting options than Swarzak or Duensing have ever been) immediately available - meanwhile the quality of your pen improves as well.

I'm usually the first one to caution regression when a player is playing 'out of their mind' and a little voice in the back of my head has been calling for Danny to regress since he broke onto the scene in a flash. Yet, he never did. I can't shake the notion that he's not going to come crashing down to earth like we're all expecting. There's elements to his game that are sustainable (at least in the near future). He has a clean, almost effortless swing and seems to generate solid contact. He's not jumping pitches and trying to pull the ball - he's slapping it all over the field. Then of course, there's his speed. When you're that fast, (as Parker states) you're bound to get a few more infield hits just by beating out some groundballs. While expecting his .400 BABIP to continue would be foolish - I do think Danny's speed and ability to make solid contact will keep him from crashing as hard as some are predicting.

I'm loving Paul Molitor's approach with the media so far. Direct, no nonsense answers that actually reflect his consideration / thinking on the subject. It's refreshing.

Oops - Not sure where my mind was that I included Albers in that group. Perhaps 2013 and 2014 blended together? (It's spring training for my memory too...apparently). Replace Albers with Logan Darnell, Kris Johnson and even Sam Deduno (who was not as great in 2014) - the point remains, the quality of starters has improved. I'd disagree a bit on your Pino comment. He had his moments, but giving his starts to May or Meyer will be an overall improvement.

Fair point, and it's why I noted that if we're being objective - the lack of national attention and excitement makes total sense. This has been a bad team, which lowers national interest, factor in the lack of any true star signings and yes, it's completely justified that the media doesn't spend much breath on the Twins. My point is less being concerned about lacking respect - that's not what I'm getting at here- it's more that the lack of national focus and pressure may be a good thing for the team overall. If you're not expected to do much of anything, you can let rookies and young players learn on the job. There's no expectation to win, so there's no blowback for letting the rookies grow.

I don't like that Nunez has moved into "given" status, but I will concede that there aren't many other options at this point. Unless someone like Beresford outplays him all spring - I think he's "in". You certainly don't want someone like Polanco riding the bench in Nunez's place, so if those are the options, I'd rather it be Nunez who "rots" while the young guys play full time at the lower levels.

Stating his main purpose for playing this winter was to focus on his defense does not mean that he has never worked on his defense previously. Also, flaws in a players game have a funny habit of being exposed once a player reaches the highest level of competition. He may have been able to get by for years at the lower levels, catching runners who weren't as skilled, helping boost his overall numbers. Now that most runners he's trying to nab are of a higher quality, his flaws become apparent.

That's been largely true, although they were expert darlings as recently as 2011. (And we know how that ended up). I think we're used to them being picked to finish middle to last in the central- but this year it's like they're not even in the division. When any discussion arises about the AL Central in 2015, the Twins are not even mentioned once. There's a good underdog vibe to this team. Zero expectations, no pressure - and improved talent.

The mantra has been the same over the last month, regardless of the source. “The best division in baseball? You have to think it’s the AL Central.” or “The most competitive division this season looks to be the AL Central!” No matter how it is framed, the reasons listed are always the same: “The perennial favorite Detroit Tigers still have David Price, Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera.” “The AL Champion Royals still have that speedy offense and one of the best bullpens in baseball.” “The White Sox have improved across every position and look to be real contenders!” “Don’t discount the Indians! This team has a sneaky offense and a solid rotation!” The conversation typically ends there. When analysts list the division top to bottom, they seemingly always forget to include the team that has, unfortunately, taken up residency at the bottom of the division over the past four years. If we are being objective, we cannot really fault the national media for not paying much attention to the Twins. This team, as currently constructed, is not expected to do any better than fifth in the division. Odds makers have forecast the Twins around 65 to 69 wins and locally the Twins have fallen off the radar, evidenced by expected all time low ticket sales (for Target Field) and a growing apathy among the fan base. Yes, our beloved Minnesota Twins have essentially become an afterthought before the season has even begun. While it’s disappointing to see the Twins written off before spring training really gets under way, this national malaise directed towards the Twins may actually be a good thing. How exactly does all of the aforementioned “negatives” create a “positive” result? Simply put, it removes a majority of expectations and pressure from what will be a young team. While Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano will always have some form of pressure as the fan proclaimed “Saviors” of the Twins, other young players on the verge of the big leagues will come up with zero expectations. Players like Danny Santana, Kennys Vargas, Eddie Rosario, Trevor May, Alex Meyer and Nick Burdi can all be allowed to learn and grow on the job without the expectations and pressure that they deliver instantly and turn the team into a contender. This relaxed atmosphere can make a great difference – instead of being demoted or benched at the first sign of a slump, the young players can work through it, learn to adapt and (hopefully) improve their game, all at the highest level. Of course, this reduced pressure doesn’t amount to much if the team is still an absolute train wreck – but there’s reason to believe the days of horrendous, unwatchable baseball are behind the Twins. While it may be easy to scoff at that line of thinking, dubbing it “early season optimism” the facts point to changes on the horizon. First, the pitching staff has improved. While we will not know to what degree until the season has reached its conclusion, we can safely say that this year’s pitching staff (assuming they all enter the season healthy) is, in fact, better than last year’s rotation. Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, Ricky Nolasco, Kyle Gibson and Tommy Milone / Trevor May / Alex Meyer create, at least, a major league viable rotation. Ervin Santana adds another quality starter the team simply did not have last season. Meanwhile, Ricky Nolasco and Tommy Milone enter the season healthy after suffering through injuries last season. Trevor May looked better with each start, and Alex Meyer and his potentially “ace” level repertoire is knocking on the big league door. Even if Phil Hughes regresses, Ricky Nolasco and Tommy Milone don’t bounce back and Trevor May doesn’t amount to anything more than Kyle Gibson 2.0 (which, wouldn’t entirely be a bad thing, mind you) so long as those five are making a majority of the starts, the staff improves simply based on cumulative quality. Lest we forget, Andrew Albers, Yohan Pino and a bevy of AAAA arms made a large number of starts for the Twins last season – it’s addition by subtraction simply be giving the starts to actual major league caliber arms. My final point in favor of the pitching staff: Mike Pelfrey, who entered last season as the team’s third best starter, can now be considered the seventh or eighth best option – a great indicator that the overall quality of the staff has improved. Meanwhile, it’s easy to forget that the Twins finished the second half of the season with one of the best offenses in baseball. Danny Santana and Kennys Vargas have been signaled out as prime candidates for regression, which may be fair. Both played at an absolutely incredible level last season, and it would be unrealistic to expect that to continue without some growing pains this year. Focusing solely on Santana and Vargas is a mistake, however, as it discounts the improvements we saw from Brian Dozier, Trevor Ploufe and Oswaldo Arcia. All three made fundamental changes to their approach at the plate last season, and all three showed marked improvement by season’s end – improvements that give every indication of being sustainable as we enter 2015. Factor in a healthy Joe Mauer, Torii Hunter providing a consistent, quality bat and contributions from the improved trio of Plouffe, Dozier and Arcia and there is reason to believe this offense will remain a threat this season. To call the expectations for the Twins in 2015 “slim” would probably be a bit generous. The national media and much of the MLB fan base have written the team off prior to the first pitches being thrown. While I think even the most optimistic Twins fans would struggle to call the team contenders, I do think there’s a an improved club lurking within this division that may prove to be a bit more of a challenge than they’re being credited for. If that is the case, this lack of spotlight may prove to be the best thing for the Twins entering 2015.

I'd say right now it's Dozier, but don't sleep on Kennys Vargas. He's very personable and jovial (he always seems to be laughing or having fun)- assuming he continues to improve his English skills (and that he keeps being a big power threat) I could easily see him becoming a marketable star.

I live about 4 hours from Minneapolis and I gave this package some serious consideration. Friday night and Saturday games would be the only way I'd be able to (realistically) have season tickets - I'd argue that this package isn't just for the "casual fan" - but also for the serious fan that lives a bit too far from the cities to make a spontaneous trip to a Twins game.

I don't doubt for a second that he can't reach those goals. The kid has a work ethic unlike any I've ever scene. He went from a long shot fringe prospect, to one of the top ranked starting prospects in two years - that's incredible. It's fine that a lot of scouts are doubting his ability to dominate in the majors (citing his height as the biggest detraction) - I think he rather enjoys proving doubters wrong.

I'll 'third' the "wait another year" notion. Let him earn his $500,000-$600,000 in 2015 and then, if he produces at a similar level in 2015, talk about buying out his arbitration years from 2016 on. No reason to rush things just yet, Dozier isn't going anywhere for a while.

I agree with most of your plan. There's only a few things I'd change (assuming I was Terry Ryan): 1) No Colabello. With Vargas and Pinto on the roster, the need for the DH / 1B type is already full (plus Mauer will DH on occassion too). I'd look either to Parmelee or Nunez. Parmelee if you think the team needs another big bat - Nunez if you want speed (I'd lean Nunez). 2) Swap Meyer and May. Let Meyer work as the 6th starter / long man for a while until he shows he's ready. May needs to start. He finished strong and should have the role until he proves he's a bullpen guy. 3) I like Rasmus in LF, but I'd like to see another plan at CF. If Hicks develops - great, if not, we need to have a better plan than Jordan Schafer. Make a move for Bourjos or sign Rios and Rasmus - some combination that gives the team better OF depth. 4) I like the notion of adding another starter. I'm not big on Masterson, but so long as it's someone other than a traveling #5 guy (akin to Pelfrey, Correia - etc.) it'll be an upgrade.

I'm just not on the Masterson bandwagon. His declining velocity concerns me - he's certainly not in the same class as Pelfrey / Correia / Marquis (IE: retreads) - but I fear his numbers are pointing towards a decline. He may be nothing more than a bad lottery ticket. If we're rolling the dice, let's go with youth. As for the LF / CF conundrum. I'm on board with Aoki as a possible LF fill in or Rasmus as the starting CF option. I don't see the Twins signing two OFs - so some blend of Hicks / Rasmus or Aoki / Arcia with Schafer off the bench works for me. I don't want Hunter. At all. Bad defense, declining bat. If they want him to mentor, hire him as a coach. I don't want him in LF. Rios...meh. On a one year deal he could be serviceable, but I wouldn't go any longer than that. By 2016, the Twins OF situation could look a whole lot different - I'd rather not have aging veterans blocking the way.

I think it would be ill advised to think that Schafer's "breakout" with the Twins was a sign of him turning things around. I hope the Twins know this and are working on contingency plans...but, the team did run Bartlett out there last year, so I won't make assumptions. At this point, I think we know who Schafer is - a speedy, defensive outfielder without much of a bat. He's a perfectly fine 4th OF and a great tool to have on the bench - but he's absolutely the 25th man on your 25 man roster. As soon as someone better comes along, he's gone. He looked good in comparison to others last year with the Twins because he was the only actual speedy OF on the roster (although Danny did OK faking it). If / when his bat regresses to the norm, he's back to being a faster version of Mastroianni.

I'm on board with either Rasmus or Aoki - but no longer than 2 years for either of them. You may have to overpay on AAV to go that short term, but I think it'd be worth paying now to have better roster freedom later. I like the defense either would bring to the team and their ability to flex to all 3 OF spots is a bonus. They could swap to a 4th OF role at the end of their deal if Rosario or Plouffe are ready to be moved - if not, then you still have a competent OF to bridge the gap for that last year. After 2 years, the Twins OF situation could be durastically different (Buxton, Hicks, Rosario, Kepler, Arcia, Plouffe(?)) so I wouldn't want to lock anyone in past that point.

If we're shopping for free agent arms, I'd rather go for that "upper tier" talent. I'm not saying chase Scherzer, Lester and Shields, but if we're going to upgrade the rotation, let's actually UPGRADE it. I'd be interested in Liriano or Santana - someone to be a solid #2 behind Phil Hughes. I'd be nice to cash in on a high upside guy taking off like Hughes, but the downside is, if he doesn't become the next Phil Hughes and is merely OK, you clog your rotation with more average arms. I'd go big (for the Twins) and grab a top talent or simply let the youth fill in the rotation next year. No more bridge deals. Of the list Nick provided - I'd kick the tires on Brett Anderson. He has youth and relative low costs in his favor and when healthy, he's a quality pitcher. (Healthy is a tough thing for him to be, however).

I like Escobar as the Twins utility player. I've said it many times on these forums already - but I think Eduardo Escobar is the utility player on the next Twins championship team. He's adds value with his bat and defensive flexability - I'd use him all over the infield (SS,2B,3B) to give days off to Santana, Dozier and Plouffe. I think you listen to trade offers, but you don't shop him. You don't HAVE to move him. He's cheap, provides value to the team and is well liked in the clubhouse. If a team comes by and blows you away (trade wise) you move on - otherwise? He's a perfect utilty player.