Kevin

Rich Hill Elbow Surgery Discussion
Heezy 1323
 
Happy Supposed-To-Be Opening Day everyone. Since the baseball season is (unfortunately) on hold due to the coronavirus pandemic, about the only recent baseball-related news to report has been that both Chris Sale and Noah Syndergaard (in addition to Luis Severino earlier this spring) are in need of Tommy John surgery. I covered some information about Sale’s injury and some discussion regarding techniques used in UCL reconstruction in previous blog posts. In the comment section of the latter post, TD user wabene asked an astute question about Rich Hill’s surgery and how it is similar or different from typical UCL reconstruction. Hill’s surgery is indeed different from a typical Tommy John surgery, and I thought a post about it might be interesting to some readers.
 
As usual, my disclaimer: I am not an MLB team physician. I have not seen or examined Hill or reviewed his imaging studies. I am not speaking on behalf of the Twins or MLB. I am only planning to cover general information about this type of surgery and my take on what it might mean.
 
Twins Daily contributor Lucas Seehafer posted an excellent article about Hill’s surgery back in January that was a good look into the surgery basics and some background about UCL primary repair. There was some additional discussion in the comments as well. Since Lucas did such a nice job covering the surgery, I won’t go into excessive detail in this post, but I’ll give my version of the basics, and then cover how Hill’s surgery is similar and different.
 
Basics of UCL Primary Repair
 
As covered in my post about Sale, the UCL is a strong ligament at the inside of the elbow that resists the stretching forces that occur when trying to throw a baseball. Obviously, hurling a baseball 90+ mph can take a toll on this ligament and it can, in some cases, result in a tear. These tears can occur at the top (humeral) end, bottom (ulnar) end or in the middle (called midsubstance).
 


 
The figure above is from a study we did when I was in fellowship indicating the location of the ligament injury in 302 patients who had undergone surgery with Dr. Andrews. The most common areas of injury are at either end of the ligament, with the humeral end being slightly more common (at least in this series) than the ulnar end. These patients all underwent UCL reconstruction, which is the standard operation to treat these injuries when non-surgery treatments have failed to result in adequate improvement.
 
More recently (I would say within the past 5-7 years), there has been emerging interest in performing a different operation for a subset of these patients called UCL Primary Repair. This operation differs from UCL Reconstruction in that when the repair is chosen, the injured ligament is reattached back to the bone at the site of the injury using special anchors. There is typically also a strong stitch called an ‘internal brace’ that is passed across the joint along the path of the repaired UCL as well. I often refer to this internal brace as a ‘seat belt’ stitch. The idea behind the internal brace is that early in the healing process, before it has re-developed strong attachments to the bone, the ligament is susceptible to reinjury which could cause failure to heal (or compromised strength of healing). The internal brace (theoretically) helps protect the healing ligament and allows for development of a stronger attachment back to the bone. Once healing has occurred, the internal brace is thought to act like ‘rebar’, adding some strength to the ligament (though the exact magnitude of this contribution is unclear).
 


 
This figure illustrates the repair technique with the blue ‘internal brace’ also in place.
 
This is different from UCL reconstruction, where tissue from elsewhere in the body (typically either a forearm tendon called palmaris or a hamstring tendon called gracilis) is passed through bone tunnels and used to create a ‘new’ ligament.
 
One of the reasons for the interest in primary repair of the UCL has to do with the length of time needed for recovery from UCL reconstruction. As many of us know from having watched numerous pitchers undergo (and subsequently return from) Tommy John surgery, there is usually around 12-18 months needed for full return to pitching at the major league level. There are a number of reasons for this long time frame, but a major contributor is that this is the amount of time needed for the graft to fully heal. Recall, we are taking a tendon (which normally attaches muscle to bone) and putting it in the place of a ligament (which normally attaches one bone to another bone). Though tendons and ligaments are similar, there are differences in their microscopic structure. Over time, as the graft starts to heal and have new stresses placed on it (namely throwing), it begins to change its microscopic structure and actually becomes a ligament. In fact, there have been animal studies done that have shown that a biopsy of a sheep ACL graft (which was originally a tendon) over time evolves into what is nearly indistinguishable from a ligament. We call this process ‘ligamentization’, and it is probably the most important part of what allows the new ligament to withstand the stresses of throwing.
 
This process, however, takes time. And because of this, the recovery from UCL reconstruction is lengthy. With primary repair of the UCL, this process of conversion of the tendon to ligament is not necessary since we are repairing the patient’s own ligament back to its normal position. Some healing is still required; namely the healing of the detached ligament back to the bone where it tore away. But this process does not typically require the same amount of time as the ligamentization process.
 
So why, then, wouldn’t everyone who needed surgery for this injury just have a primary repair? In practice, there are a few issues that require consideration when choosing what surgery is most suitable for a particular athlete. The first brings us back to the first graph from this post regarding location of injury to the UCL. It turns out that asking an injured ligament to heal back to bone is a much different thing than asking a torn ligament to heal back to itself. Specifically, trying to heal a tear in the midsubstance of the UCL (which requires the two torn edges of the ligament to heal back together) results in a much less strong situation than a ligament healing to bone. That makes those injuries that involve the midsubstance of the UCL (about 12% in our study) not suitable for primary repair. It can only be realistically considered in those athletes who have an injury at one end of the ligament or the other.
 


 
In addition, there is significant consideration given to the overall condition of the ligament. One can imagine that repairing a nearly pristine ligament that has a single area of injury (one end pulled away from the bone) is a different situation than trying to successfully repair a ligament that has a poorer overall condition. Imagine looking at a piece of rope that is suspending a swing from a tree branch- if the rope is basically brand new, but for some reason breaks at its attachment to the swing, it seems logical that reattaching the rope to the swing securely is likely to result in a well-functioning swing with less cause for concern about repeat failure. Conversely, if you examine the rope in the same situation and notice that it is thin and frayed in a number of places, but just happened to fail at its attachment to the swing, you would be much less likely to try and repair the existing rope. More likely, you would go to the store and buy a new rope to reattach the swing (analogous to reconstruction). Similarly, when we are considering surgical options, we examine the overall health of the ligament on the MRI scan, and also during the surgery to determine whether repair is suitable or whether a reconstruction is needed. If there is a significant amount of damage to the UCL on MRI, primary repair may not be presented to the athlete as an option.
 
Also, consideration is given to the particulars of an athlete’s situation. For example, let’s say I see a high school junior pitcher who has injured his elbow during the spring season. Let’s also say that he wants to return to pitching for his senior year but has no interest in playing baseball competitively beyond high school. In this case, the athlete is trying to return relatively quickly (the next spring) and is not planning to place long term throwing stress on the UCL beyond the next season. If this athlete fails to improve without surgery (such that all agree a surgery is needed), and his MRI is favorable- he is a good candidate for UCL primary repair. This would hopefully allow him to return in a shorter time frame (6-9 months) for his senior season, which would not be possible if a reconstruction was performed. Indeed, this is the exact type of patient that first underwent this type of surgery by Dr. Jeff Dugas at American Sports Medicine Institute in Birmingham, AL. Dr. Dugas is a protégé of Dr. James Andrews and has been instrumental in pioneering the research behind UCL primary repair.
 
As you can probably imagine, the longer players (and pitchers in particular) play baseball, the more likely it is that there is an accumulation of damage to the UCL over time. This is the factor that most commonly eliminates the option of primary repair of the UCL in many of these players.
 
So how does any of this relate to Twins pitcher Rich Hill? Let’s discuss.
 
Hill underwent UCL reconstruction of his left elbow in 2011. He was able to successfully return from his surgery but has certainly faced his share of injury concerns since then (as described nicely in Lucas Seehafer’s article). This past season he began to have elbow pain once again and was placed on the 60-day IL as a result. He then underwent surgery on the elbow in October 2019 by Dr. Dugas (noted above). The procedure performed was a repair procedure, but in this case instead of repairing Hill’s own UCL, the repair was performed to reattach the previously placed UCL graft. I don’t have any first-hand knowledge of Hill’s surgery, but my best guess is that the technique was very similar to what was described above for a typical primary repair with internal brace. To my knowledge, this has not been attempted before in a major league pitcher.
 
There is data showing a relatively good return to play rate with primary repair that is very similar to UCL reconstruction. However, most UCL repair patients are much younger than Hill and the vast majority that have been studied to this point are not major league pitchers. There are a couple of ways you can interpret this data when it comes to Hill. One perspective is that he had a repair of a ‘ligament’ (his UCL graft) that was only 8 years old (since his TJ was done in 2011), and as such it likely doesn’t have as much cumulative damage as his UCL might otherwise have if he had not had any prior surgery. An opposing perspective would be that this is his second UCL operation, and even though his most recent surgery was not a reconstruction, the data that would be most applicable to him would be data regarding athletes who have undergone revision UCL reconstruction (meaning they have had a repeat TJ procedure after the UCL failed a second time). This data is less optimistic. Most studies would put the rate of return to play after normal UCL reconstruction around 85% (depending on exactly how you define successful return to play). In most studies, the rate of return to play after revision UCL reconstruction is much lower, around 60-70%. There are two MLB pitchers that I am aware of that have undergone primary repair of the UCL (Seth Maness and Jesse Hahn). Maness has yet to return to MLB and Hahn didn’t fare very well in 6 appearances in 2019.
 
Finally, my last input on this topic as it pertains to Hill is to imagine the specific position he is/was in. He is likely nearing the end of his career (he turned 40 in March 2020). He had a significant elbow injury that was not getting better without surgery. Presumably his choices were four:
1) Continue trying to rehab without surgery and see how it goes, understanding that the possibility exists that rehab may not be successful. (Perhaps a PRP injection could be tried)
2) Retire.
3) Undergo revision UCL reconstruction with its associated 12-18 month recovery timeline, likely putting him out for all of 2020 with a possible return in 2021 at age 41.
4) Undergo this relatively new primary repair procedure with the possibility of allowing him to return to play for part of the 2020 season, but with a much less known track record. In fact, a basically completely unknown track record for his specific situation.
 
If that doesn’t seem like a list filled with great options, it’s because it isn’t. If I’m being honest, I think Hill probably made the best choice (presuming that he still has a desire to play), even with the unknowns regarding his recovery. He obviously couldn’t have seen this virus pandemic coming, but that would seem to make the choice even better since he is not missing any games (because none are being played).
 
For Hill’s and the Twins sake, I hope his recovery goes smoothly and he is able to return and pitch at the high level he is used to. He sure seems like a warrior and is certainly the kind of person that is easy to root for. But based on what we know about his situation, there is an element of uncertainty. If I were Hill’s surgeon, I likely would have told him that he had around a 50-60% chance to return and pitch meaningful innings after this type of surgery. Let’s hope the coin falls his way, and also that we can figure out how to best handle this virus and get everyone back to their normal way of life as soon and safely as possible.
 
Thanks for reading. Be safe everyone. Feel free to leave any questions in the comment section.

The trade of Brusdar Graterol has brought a lot of emotions and grand presumptions from fans and commentators. Unfortunately, most of the reactions, assumptions and presumptions of this trade are wrong.
Stick with me here, but the Twins HAD to trade Graterol and in doing so this organization has FINALLY sold high on a prospect. All we have to do is look at the past to see what happened here.
When Falvey and Levine were hired, they talked about research and development and opined that perhaps keeping players healthy and using research on available medical data might be the next market inefficiency. While this is likely what lead to the decisions to sign Pineda and Hill, it seems reasonable that not all of the results of this research would lead to signing players. It has also lead to pointing to data on what type of player to avoid.
 
Approximately 2 years ago, 2 transactions occurred that I believe hint to what lead to the departure of Graterol. These transactions were befuddling to many of us - the Twins let two future stud relievers in JT Chargois and Nick Burdi leave for nothing. Burdi was left unprotected and was selected in the rule 5 draft by the Phillies before being traded to the Pirates. Chargois was claimed off waivers by the Dodgers. The bullpen was in desperate need of help from strikeout pitchers and yet the Twins let go of perhaps their two most likely young pitchers that could do that. And they have started to show that striking out batters is definitely what they can do! Oh, except they've not been able to do much of it because they can't stay on the field. Nick Burdi has barely pitched since heading to Pittsburgh. While JT Chargois has not been injured to the same extent, the results have not been there. He is now heading to Japan, having been released by the Dodgers.
These two were well regarded prospects. Certainly the Twins could have gotten something for them at some point. But they didn't and instead had to let them go for nothing.
Not so with Graterol who was another high-octane pitcher, and most likely a reliever, with a history of injury troubles. So rather than bemoan the fact that he was traded and won't be pitching 200 innings and winning a Cy Young, be thrilled that the Twins have finally shown that they have learned the lessons of the past. I certainly don't know what data the Twins have found to tell them to let these to go. But clearly they saw something that told them that having these two players on their 40 man roster was not worth it. It was better to let them go and protect other players who could serve as MLB players and as depth for the roster in 2018, 2019, and moving forward. For Graterol, rather than sitting through more years of injury-shortened seasons, and perhaps a second TJ surgery, the Twins cashed in for a solid starting pitcher in Kenta Maeda. One who, while having his own red flags should contribute through the season and into October. So don't be stressed, be thankful that you cheer for a team that has finally figured out what they're doing, even if we don't always immediately get it.
On a final note, I've heard some prognosticators prognosticating that now that the Twins have traded a prospect for immediate help, they are going to start trading other top prospects for help at the trade deadline. I think this is wishful assumption making based on nothing concrete. All we know right now is that if the Twins have identified a high risk player, they'll be willing to cash in that chip rather than end up getting nothing.

Why can't we have nice things? Maybe that's a common refrain, but then again shouldn't it be why does common sense escape so many? As Michael Pineda now faces a 60 game suspension, ending his season and ability to help the Minnesota Twins in the Postseason, we're left shaking our heads as to why cheating is always defined as a mistake.
 
There's zero denying that Michael Pineda knew what he was doing. Ingesting a diuretic that he obtained from a "close acquaintance" is the same tired excuse we're often fed. You see, those that lack common sense also have this belief the world around them follows suit. Here's the reality, Pineda got caught and still can't own it so he's going down with the ship.
 
If there was no ill intentions in taking the drug, Pineda could have quickly reached out to team doctors or trainers for an opinion. He made a choice to forego that route because of the assumed answer. Whether Pineda believed there would be substantial helpful effects for whatever he was trying to mask or not, he chose to turn from a protocol that would've been in the best interest of himself and moreso his team.
 
In the end it's really the Twins that lose here. After paying $2 million on the belief they'd get to monitor rehab and then get a productive pitcher in 2019, they got an $8 million tab that ran out right when they needed it most. Pineda has been Rocco Baldelli's best starter since being shut down for 10 days on May 27, and Minnesota went 11-4 in the 15 games he started. This was supposed to be Jose Berrios' staff, but it was Big Mike that looked the part of ALDS game one pitcher. Not anymore.
 
Nothing about this suspension changes the Twins outlook when it comes to playing in October or winning the AL Central division. Both of those things will still happen. Where the fallout comes is in how and what Minnesota does to compete against the best of the best. You can get by with three elite starters or four quality ones in Postseason play, but the Twins now have two wild cards, an ill asset, and a handful of unproven commodities. It's been the Bomba Squad all year, and the pen has stepped up of late, but the need has now never been greater.
 
An era or so ago when PED usage ran rampant in baseball (thank you Bud Selig), I had no problem with the best looking for that advantage. Now the ball is juiced and the playing field is leveled that way. Testing is stricter than it's ever been though, and the sport has since decided drugs have no place in the game. To continue operating that way is as selfish as it gets, and only hurts your club. Pineda will still get paid next season, and he makes a healthy sum for 2019. The fans and players looking to make a splash this season now all lose.
 
This is a story we've heard plenty of times before. It's an excuse and apology we'll hear plenty of times again. No amount of money can buy common sense, and unfortunately for the Twins, Michael Pineda's desire to be about himself is the latest example.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Introducing Through a Child’s Eyes
A blog about how kids experiencing winning Twins baseball for the first time connect and have fun without concerns of payroll, unwritten rules, or judgement.
 
The Twins’s postseason run and World Series Championship in 1991 was the first time I really got into baseball. I remember the 1987 Championship, but not that well as I was only six at the time. But 1991 put me in the prime age range to catch on to a fun club for a magical season. As my mom tells it, I was up early each morning to flip open the sports page of the Duluth News-Tribune to read the game recap and check the box score. I hated games out west that missed the deadline.
 
I’ve always followed the club, but with a handful of years as the exception they’ve generally been a pretty bad franchise. Like many of us, I’ve thought back to 1991 a lot this year. In part, because the team seems to have “it” this year, but mostly because my kids are, for the first time, experiencing fun, winning baseball. They are 9(girl), 8(boy), almost 7(boy), and 5 (boy).
 
Fox Sports North is on in the evenings at our house most nights, year-round. We follow all sports and the kids have wide-ranging interests. Prior to this season, baseball has been something they play, something they’re aware of, but not something with which they have any connection.
 
Now we’re doing math on batting averages, they think Buxton is the world’s fastest man, and we’re talking about “triple home-runs” and the “real deal.” I hear my left-handed throwing son (8) want to be a catcher (sorry, bud.) My daughter (9) loves Garv-sauce. They ask about the back of baseball cards and we discuss the history of the game. My nearly seven-year-old wants to be an Air Force pilot like Ted Williams.
 
Let me share one story as a quick introduction- My eldest son recently hollered to me while I was in the bathroom, “Dad, Buxton just swung at a slider, now it’s the real deal!”
 
Me: “The real deal?”
Son: “Yes! You know, three balls and two strikes!”
Me: “You mean a full count?”
Son: “Yeah, but with two outs! The real deal!”
 
We laughed about it, and now in our house, a full count at-bat with two outs is now a Real Deal.
 
I intend to write once or twice a week and share stories as my kids learn the game from a different perspective- a winning one- and hopefully fall in love with baseball. I hope you’ll come along with us as it’s been fun to watch baseball again as many of us first learned it -Through a Child’s Eyes.
 
 
The author, Tim Fredrickson lives with his family in Brainerd, MN. He can be found on Twitter @TimFredrickson.

At some point, you have to know when to cut bait and move on. For Twins fans, that time has come for Dallas Keuchel.
 
For the last 5 seasons, Keuchel has been the Astro’s homegrown ace. From his debut in 2012, Keuchel has slowly cemented himself as one of the best starting pitchers in the game. Save for a rocky 2016 and some early growing pains, Keuchel has been nothing but solid.
 
Anchored by Keuchel and Justin Verlander, acquired from the Tigers in August of 2017, the Houston Astros have been one of baseball’s best teams for the past 3 seasons. But Keuchel is now a free agent and many Twins fans are hoping that Minnesota eventually signs him.
 
However, if Minnesota elected to sign Keuchel, don’t expect the same results from Keuchel that Astros fans have grown accustomed to seeing from him. In fact, if Minnesota signed him, it is possible that Twins fans would see the Nolasco Fiasco 2.0.
 
In 2013, the season before the Twins signed him, Nolasco’s ERA was 3.70. In 2018, Keuchel had a 3.74 ERA. Now compare that to 2017, when Keuchel had an ERA of 2.90, and you’ll see a jump of +0.84.
 
This is not the only concerning statistic. Last season, Keuchel had a WHIP of 1.31. While it is not a critical tell-all stat, WHIP is helpful in determining a pitcher’s general number of base runners allowed in a given inning. Keuchel’s WHIP of 1.3 is far above his teammate Justin Verlander’s league-leading WHIP of 0.9.
 
Last season, Dallas Keuchel gave up a league-leading 211 hits. Even more alarming is his league-leading 874 batters faced, while only pitching 204.2 innings. If you do some simple math, that’s about 4.3 batters per inning. Think about that. That’s over 1 batter higher than the minimum every single inning, which accounts for his WHIP of 1.3.
 
Besides all of these influential, albeit alarming, statistics, there is another reason to move on from Dallas Keuchel. This current front office, which has more than proven its competency with its savvy moves this season, hasn’t even given fans a whiff of the notion that it is looking at signing Keuchel. This speaks volumes in and of itself.
 
The duo of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have taken this ballclub from one of baseball’s worst to one of the best in the league in three short seasons. Their moves have positioned the ballclub to compete deep into the postseason this year and hopefully for years to come. There comes a time when fans need to trust their respective front offices and believe that they know that they are doing. For Twins fans, that time is now.
 
Someone will sign Dallas Keuchel, and soon. After June 6th, when the draft ends and teams will no longer lose a draft pick when they sign Keuchel, there will likely be a bidding war for his services. Perhaps Keuchel will return to his Cy Young form and I will have to eat crow. But if I were betting man, Keuchel will be at best just eh this season. I think so, and Twins fans should think so too.

Over the past decade, pitch framing has become a hot topic, not only in how we've begun to identify its value, but also in finding methods to quantify it, and coming to grips with its influence on the game. However, I contend that our focus has been far too narrow, and we must look beyond the catcher- in fact, past the backstop, into the stands, up to the media boxes, and directly at the role of play-by-play broadcaster. How the game's on-camera talent describe the action shapes our measurement of every pitch, even when most telecasts have live strike zone graphics present.
In this post, we'll be looking at the tendencies of long time Twins play-by-play broadcaster Dick Bremer, who has a very specific methodology: Since it sounds more impressive when a pitcher hits the corner of the strike zone, any and all parts of the strike zone and its immediate surroundings qualify as "The Corner", and will be described as such when the opportunity arises.
 
Our analysis will include video breakdowns of the 11 instances of the word 'corner' being used by Bremer during the Twins' April 17th game versus the Toronto Blue Jays. To quantify each pitch, we will use an Actual Corner Value (how close a pitch actually comes to a corner of the strike zone) as well as a Broadcaster Corner Value (how close the pitch comes to the corner, as perceived and presented by Dick Bremer).
 
Pitch #1: Bottom 2nd, 2 outs, 1-2
https://twitter.com/GoTwinkiesGo/status/1118572113256833025
Pitcher: Aaron Sanchez
Throw: 96 mph fastball
Result: Strike 3
 
Dick's call: "On the outside corner, didn't waste it at all. Buried it on the outside corner."
 
Analysis: On a 1-2 pitch, Toronto pitcher Aaron Sanchez throws a 96 mph fastball at the outside edge of the plate, though it lands in the center third of the height of the zone with room to spare. Already, at this first sighting, we understand the challenge presented to Dick due to working on a television broadcast rather than radio, where pitch framing is sometimes less of an art and more the act of a used car salesman, free to invent whatever fiction will sell their desired narrative. Here, on TV, viewers can plainly see that this pitch is not on a corner. Dick, however, is unfazed, and reaches into his bag of tricks, declaring it on the corner not once, but TWICE - and not only stating its location, but insisting that it was BURIED there. This is the act of a seasoned professional, understanding that repetition and commitment are key to manipulating our perception, if not our very understanding of reality.
 
Actual Corner Value (ACV): 4/10
Broadcaster Corner Value (BCV): 10/10
Adjusted score: +6
 
Pitch #2: Bottom 3rd, 2 outs, 0-0
https://twitter.com/GoTwinkiesGo/status/1118754724696641536
Pitcher: Aaron Sanchez
Throw: 96 mph fastball
Result: Strike 1
 
Dick's Call: "Strike on the outside corner."
 
Analysis: Someday, electronic strike zones will lord over our game as unfeeling adjudicators, but until that day, they serve merely as proxy armchair quarterbacks - a tool we rely on as viewers to feel validated in our desire to maim and/or injure the home plate umpire for their imperfections. On this pitch, Fox Trax smugly refuses to fill in the outline of the ball's arrival point, declaring that this pitch was a ball and all those who disagree are filthy heretics.
 
How comforting it is, then, for Dick to step in and remind all of us that in the end, the strike zone is defined solely by what the umpire says it is, no matter how many cameras and scanners say otherwise. This pitch is not outside. It is on the corner. The umpire's corner.
 
ACV: 7/10
BCV: 8/10
Adjusted score: +1
 
Pitch #3: Top 4th, 1 out, 1-0
https://twitter.com/GoTwinkiesGo/status/1118755023842729984
Pitcher: Kyle Gibson
Throw: 94 mph fastball
Result: Strike 1
 
Dick's Call: "And now an outside corner fastball to even the count."
 
Analysis: Kyle Gibson started the 2017 season as someone fans understood to be roster filler, but ended it on an underappreciated upward trend. In 2018, he broke out with his best season to date and cemented his position at the front of the Twins rotation. Now, in 2019, he has started off somewhat shaky, with a suspect ERA and the need to make it deeper into ball games.
 
On this pitch, Dick has his pitcher's back, finding the corner where one does not exist. Catcher Mitch Garver positioned his glove exactly on the corner, and while Kyle missed his target high, he still found the edge and a called strike. For Dick, this is enough. He has earned approbation in the eyes of the telecast.
 
ACV: 5/10
BCV: 8/10
Adjusted score: +3
 
Pitch #4: Top 6th, 0 outs, 0-1
https://twitter.com/GoTwinkiesGo/status/1118755338788851712
Pitcher: Kyle Gibson
Throw: 93 mph fastball
Result: Strike 2
 
Dick's Call: "On the outside corner with a fastball."
 
Analysis: Freddy Galvis must be listening to Dick through AirPods under that helmet, because his face says what we all know in our hearts: That was a meatball of a pitch, and Dick Bremer is a hero for carrying on the cause, however lost it may be.
 
ACV: 2/10
BCV: 7/10
Adjusted score: +5
 
Pitch #5: Top 6th, 2 outs, 0-0
https://twitter.com/GoTwinkiesGo/status/1118755513288626176
Pitcher: Ryne Harper
Throw: 74 mph breaking ball
Result: Strike 1
 
Dick's Call: "Breaking ball on the outside corner, strike one."
 
Analysis: Is this pitch actually in the corner of the strike zone? Yes! The arc of the baseball tucks itself into the furthest nook available to it. In times like these, where no deception is necessary, you might expect that Dick Bremer would bluster and harangue us with unfettered righteousness, knowing that there can be no doubt as to where the ball landed. However, Dick finds a gentle touch in his commentary, content to let the pitch speak for itself, a simple declaration of its corner-ness being satisfactory. It needs no help, and will be allowed to lift its own weight.
 
ACV: 9/10
BCV: 9/10
Adjusted score: 0
 
Pitch #6: Bottom 6th, 0 outs, 0-0
https://twitter.com/GoTwinkiesGo/status/1118755746894639104
Pitcher: Aaron Sanchez
Throw: 94 mph fastball
Result: Strike 1
 
Dick's Call: "Strike on the outside corner."
 
Analysis: A location extremely similar to pitch #2, though now delivered with an additional hint of defeat, as it arrives against the hot bat of Jorge Polanco. Immediately after listing his current bona fides, Polanco falls victim to the quantum state of the umpire's zone. While he was fooled, Dick was not, and he wearily sheds the burden he has carried throughout this pitch, allowing us all to taste from the tree of knowledge.
 
ACV: 9/10
BCV: 9/10
Adjusted score: 0
 
Pitch #7: Bottom 7th, 2 outs, 0-0
https://twitter.com/GoTwinkiesGo/status/1118756058548170752
Pitcher: Thomas Pannone
Throw: 74 mph breaking ball
Result: Strike 1
 
Dick's Call: "Breaking ball over the inside corner."
 
Analysis: The work of a true master is present here, and we must parse the commentary carefully. The Twins are behind, but the tying run is at the plate. Now is the time for hope, and Kepler has watched a first pitch strike sail past him. Does the pitch find the corner? By exact definition, no. However, it is an excellent pitch - if one ignores that catcher Danny Jansen is set up on the exact opposite spot of the strike zone. Dick refuses to give Pannone the total satisfaction of finding the corner - stating that it is simply OVER the corner - while still testifying that it is a fine pitch. By Dick's standards, this is a backhanded compliment.
 
ACV: 8/10
BCV: 9/10
Adjusted score: +1
 
Pitch #8: Top 8th, 0 outs, 2-2
https://twitter.com/GoTwinkiesGo/status/1118756254917120000
Pitcher: Tyler Duffey
Throw: 95 mph fastball
Result: Strike 3
 
Dick's Call: "On the outside corner. 95 on the outside edge or thereabouts, one away."
 
Analysis: NO! This is Duffey's first game back in the majors this season, and wanting to bolster his confidence, our protagonist has overextended himself, daring to go where others fear to tread, well outside the zone and at the exact vertical center. Corners have not existed in these parts since the days of Marty Foster's gift-wrapped delivery of Joe Nathan's 300th save. And yet, with zero hesitation, Dick plants his flag - immediately realizing that he has made a grave error. It will not be enough to double down on his argument, as was the case on Pitch #1. He knows when he has been beaten, and he retreats at the first opportunity.
 
It must also be noted that at the end of the clip, one can hear a chuckle from today's analyst, Jack "Back in My Day" Morris. This will be one of the few times during today's broadcast that I agree with him.
 
ACV: 1/10
BCV: 0/10
Adjusted score: -1
 
Pitch #9: Bottom 8th, 0 outs, 3-0
https://twitter.com/GoTwinkiesGo/status/1119309223332986880
Pitcher: Joe Biagini
Throw: 94 mph fastball
Result: Strike 1
 
Dick's Call: "On the outside corner."
 
Analysis: Matter of fact. All business. The pitch arrived enough within the margin of error that Bremer presents his truth with the cadence of a trusted newsman.
 
ACV: 7/10
BCV: 8/10
Adjusted Score: +1
 
Pitch #10: Bottom 9th, 0 outs, 0-0
https://twitter.com/GoTwinkiesGo/status/1119309442338541568
Pitcher: Ken Giles
Throw: 87 mph "fastball"
Result: Strike 1
 
Dick's Call: "On the outside corner, strike 1."
 
Analysis: The drama is beginning to rise, as the Twins are down to their final 3 outs, behind by a single run, and sending Nelson Cruz to the plate as a pinch hitter. Once again, the ball is only in the corner's general aura, but Dick knows we are too excited to notice, and continues past it without pause.
 
ACV: 6/10
BCV: 8/10
Adjusted score: +2
 
Pitch 11: Bot 9th, 1 out, 3-1
https://twitter.com/GoTwinkiesGo/status/1119309817019944960
Pitcher: Ken Giles
Throw: 97 mph fastball
Result: Strike 2
 
Dick's Call: "Strike two on the outside corner... 97 in a REAL GOOD SPOT."
 
Analysis: Perfection. Mastery. Finally, near the climax of this game, we find what has eluded us: A true corner, spotted in the wild for all of us to enjoy, and Dick refuses to let it go to waste. His initial hushed tones give way to wonder and amazement, before his final accentuation that not only hammers home the exact precision of this corner, but makes us feel that we too knew it all along, even if we didn't happen to be looking at the TV at the time. Even if we didn't know what a strike zone was. All of us, collectively, knew what we had seen. We are enlightened and made whole. We are one with baseball, and one with each other.
 
ACV: 10/10
BCV: 12/10
Adjusted score: +2
Final Score: +20 Adjusted Corner Value
 
This concludes part one of this series. Stay tuned for part two, when we extend our gaze to the rest of the strike zone, and learn about the subtext necessary when one is not allowed to call a professional baseball player a 'belly itcher' and get away with it for long. In the meantime, for my research purposes, please share any high-BCV highlights for your team of choice in the comments.

A team barely alive
 
Some are saying the Twins should abandon the effort to seriously compete in 2019 and aim to reload for 2020 and 2021, when prospects like Alex Kiriloff and Royce Lewis will be ready to contribute. That's a mistake to me--with a payroll commitment of only about $60 Million, they almost can't afford not to spend some serious cash. I'll lay out what we can learn from 2018 and what the Twins can do not only to compete but to put themselves in position to win the American League Central in 2019, ending this post with my offseason blueprint. First, let's look at the year now past--not quite a debacle, but quite disappointing:
2016 2017 2018 changeActual Wins 59 85 78 -7
They fell off by seven games, which isn't much considering a 26-game improvement came about the year before. Still, everyone was hoping for better. Their Pythagorean wins (the number of wins expected given their runs scored and allowed) were at 79, so there's not much bad luck involved in that number.
 
Where did the Twins' actual decline come from? Let's compare this year's decline to last year's improvement:
2016 2017 2018 changeLuck -7 +2 +1 -1Hitters WAR 17.0 28.7 15.2 -13.5Pitchers WAR 1.8 7.0 12.3 +5.3
So here's the bright side: Twins pitching in two years went from the worst around to now above average. This is an incredible achievement by Falvey and Levine, the coaches, and the players. The Twins have released pitching coach Garvin Alston after one year to enable new manager Rocco Baldelli to hire the person he wants, but judging from the results, one would have to give a hearty thanks to Alston for moving the needle significantly in the right direction for whatever degree of influence he had. Their challenge now is to keep up this level of quality and boost it on the margins.
 
To say that hitting was a disappointment is an understatement. While the lineup didn't totally fall apart, they certainly fell two big steps backwards. Getting just a little better from here isn't going to cut it in the minds of Twins fans or for the front office. More importantly, knowing the specific players who should take the blame leaves me both concerned and hopeful--quite literally, the Twins supposed five best hitters (Sano, Buxton, Morrison, Mauer, and Dozier) all dramatically underperformed. In no universe did fans, writers, pundits, projection systems, Paul Molitor, Thad Lavine, or Derek Falvey think there was any reasonable chance that the five of them would combine to post a cumulative WAR under 1. When you would have been just as well simply benching your five best hitters for all 162 games, there's literally no possible way to overcome that. And yet, the Twins still ended three wins under .500 for the year, a mark far more respectable than what could have happened.
 
So the bad news is that Twins's best players now all have big question marks surrounding them. The good news though: 2018 was certainly a black swan event, the likes of which the Twins offense has never seen nor imagined. No one could have predicted it, and the probability of it happening again is exceedingly small. These players are all better than this, and we should expect this year to be expunged from their memories after they achieve more success going forward.
 
I'll break down the hitters by WAR (technically fWAR, or FanGraph's WAR), focusing on the players that mattered most. I'll list last year's players who have been replaced for comparison's sake, as well.
WAR 2017 2018 change15 Hitters 24.9 14.6 -10.5LF Rosario 1.7 3.4 +1.7RF Kepler 2.4 2.6 +0.23B Escobar 1.3 2.4 +1.1SS Polanco 2.1 1.3 -0.82B Dozier 4.4 1.0 -3.41B Mauer 3.4 1.0 -2.4CF Buxton 5.1 -0.4 -5.5C Castro 2.5 -0.2 -2.7DH Vargas=>Morrison 0.3 -0.7 -1.0 3B Sano 2.5 0.0 -2.54O Granite=>Cave 0.3 1.3 +1.0BC Gimenez=>Garver 0.7 1.3 +0.55O Grossman 0.8 0.7 -0.1MI Adrianza 0.9 0.5 -0.4MI Santana=>Forsythe 0.1 0.4 -0.3
Moves that worked
 
Sticking with Rosario in 2017: Rosario had a successful year in 2017, but many were worried that it was more of a fluke--that Rosario would return to a below-league-average hitter, as he was in 2015-2016. Instead, Rosario kept hitting at a high level and simultaneously improved his baserunning and fielding into also above-average territory. If he can maintain these tools, expect an all-star team appearance for Rosario, perhaps even in 2019. Under team control through 2021, the case can also be made that Rosario's trade value will never be higher--what kind of pitching riches could the Twins acquire if they offer Rosario and move Jake Cave into left? Still, the most likely scenario is that the Twins keep playing Rosario every night for a few years, and perhaps they should keep offering him long-term contract extensions till he signs one.
 
Trading Luis Gil for Jake Cave: The Yankees were never going to play Cave in the outfield, so trading him for a low-level hard-throwing prospect was perhaps a good move for them, but it was a great move for the Twins, as Cave contributed more to the team winning than Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, and Joe Mauer combined in 2018. It seems that Cave can legitimately hit and field, and so the Twins plan on keeping him around. He is perfect as the fourth outfielder for years to come. Before the trade, Zach Granite was struggling and Ryan LaMarre jumped over him to begin the year in the big leagues, but Cave's success led the Twins to trade away LaMarre without fear.
 
Relying on Mitch Garver more than Bobby Wilson or Chris Gimenez: Last year, the Twins were reluctant to trust Garver behind the plate, trying him out as a pinch hitter, DH, and outfielder. That's a problem, because Garver isn't a good enough hitter to be highly valuable at any of those positions--but at catcher, he's a great hitter. This year, Garver caught in over 650 innings, and while his catching metrics are overall slight negative, his strong hitting makes up for it. Good-hitting catchers are hard to find, and the Twins should live with little shortcomings in Garver if he can be a above-average hitter--that is, above-average for a hitter, way above average for a catcher.
 
Moves that bombed
Playing through lower-body pain: How many times do the Twins have to get bitten by this to change their emphasis? Logan Morrison (hip), Brian Dozier (knee), Miguel Sano (leg, hamstring) and of course Byron Buxton (toe) all tried to play either through an injury or come back too soon from recovery. The evidence is abundant that hitting suffers immensely when any part of the legs can't be trusted. Playing hurt often means playing to hurt your team, and it should no longer be tolerated, let alone encouraged.
 
Managing Byron Buxton's injuries and swing: Buxton is too good for this to be the result. By the butterfly effect, migraine headaches led to a broken toe, the already-mentioned foolish attempt to return too early, and lots of confusion over his swing mechanics. The new trainers, new manager, and yet-to-be-named new hitting coach will have Buxton's success as perhaps their top individual priority.
 
Failing to trade Dozier before the beginning of the year: The rumor was that, for Dozier to escape to the the Dodgers before the season, the Twins were demanding Jose De Leon and Cody Bellinger in return. The Dodgers, even without the benefit of hindsight, were never going to do that trade. The Twins should have accepted DeLeon and another lesser player as the best deal they could have gotten. It looks especially bad now, as the Twins' "best hitter" was not at all their best hitter anymore--Dozier inexplicably (was it a lingering knee injury?) went from being 25% above average to 10% below average in one year. Needless to say, Dozier was hoping for a hundred-million-dollar or more contract in his first free-agent try, but might now have to settle for a one-year deal and try again next year.
 
On to the starting pitchers:
2017 2018 change6 Starters 7.2 9.7 +2.5Berrios 1.7 3.3 +1.6Gibson 0.2 2.8 +2.6Colon=>Odorizzi 0.1 2.6 +2.5Mejia=>Lynn 0.8 0.8 0.0Santiago=>Romero -0.2 0.7 +0.9Santana 4.6 -0.5 -5.1
Moves that worked
 
Sticking with Berrios and Gibson: It took Berrios a few additional years after his debut to find his footing, but the patience with him is paying off. When you have a pitching prospect like Berrios, it may take some years of struggle before becoming a reliable contributor--Berrios was such all year, without giving the coaches reason to worry or doubt. La Maquina is under team control through 2022, so the Twins will pencil him in as often as possible for the next four years.
 
Gibson's struggle was ongoing for years, but this was the year he put all that behind him and had confidence on the mound for the entire year. I was among those who were ready for the Twins to cut ties with him two years ago, but he has proved me wrong by being the rare pitcher whose age-30 season is better than any year prior. We shouldn't expect Gibson to exceed his 2018 success, but he has certainly earned a rotation spot next year.
 
Trading for Jake Odorizzi: The Twins spent the offseason trying to get Chris Archer. When they couldn't meet the Rays' asking price, they went down a notch and acquired Odorizzi from them in exchange for Jermaine Palacios, who went on to have a poor season in A and AA and seems a long way from ever contributing in the majors. Odorizzi wasn't the near-ace the Twins were hoping for, but at a notch below, he was a much better contributor than Bartolo Colon last year. The Twins should not hesitate to make such a routine move to plug a hole again, as adding two or three wins in exchange for a marginal prospect is a bargain no matter which way you look at it. By the way, Archer struggled on the year and was traded mid-season for a lesser return to the Pirates, so perhaps it all worked out well for the Twins.
 
Moves that bombed
 
Signing Lance Lynn and thus blocking Adalberto Mejia:
I hesitate to call this a big mistake--Lance Lynn's contract was limited and the Twins recognized early enough that he wasn't the pitcher they thought they were getting, skipping occasional starts and pulling him early. Still, the Twins would have been better off trusting Meijia, Romero, or Gonsalves to take Lynn's 20 starts. The results would likely have been no worse, and furthermore perhaps one of those three would be a clear asset for the major league team in 2018. Instead, the Twins and Twins fans alike still are unsure of these three not-so-young-anymore pitchers and their role going forward. We can't second-guess the Lynn signing too much, as it was cheap and easy, and this was likely just a down year for Lynn, who should be effective for the Yankees or some other team for years to come.
 
And the bullpen:
2017 2018 change11 Relievers 2.4 2.4 0.0Rogers 0.4 1.9 +0.8Pressly -0.2 0.8 +1.0 Gee=>Duke 0.6 0.8 +0.2Kintzler=>Rodney 1.1 0.5 -0.6Breslow=>Moya -0.1 0.1 +0.2Hildenberger 0.8 0.0 -0.8Belisle 0.0 -0.2 -0.2Duffey -0.4 -0.2 +0.2 Boshers=>Reed -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 Tonkin=>Magill -0.2 -0.3 -0.1Busenitz 0.1 -0.8 -0.9
Moves that worked
 
Making Taylor Rogers more than a LOOGY: Being left-handed is certainly a blessing for most pitchers, but sometimes they get trapped into a specialty role. Instead, Molitor used Rogers often against lefties and righties alike, and he shined in the process, boasting more than a strikeout per inning and nearly five for every walk, and giving up the bare minimum of home runs you could ever expect. I doubt Rogers will ever be this good again, but you can hope he'll come close. He's definitely the kind of pitcher the Twins are happy to have for at least four more years in his prime.
 
Signing Zach Duke and Fernando Rodney: Duke didn't make himself into a top-notch reliever, but his 52 innings pitched were solidly above-average for a team that struggled to find strength in their bullpen. Rodney contributed just as well, too. Again, signing players like these (and then trading them away if the season becomes lost) should be routine moves that happen every year alongside any bigger moves. These players are often available each year, and the Twins' scouts will prove themselves if this kind of signing usually works out as it did with Duke and Rodney.
 
Building up Pressly and trading him for value: Ryan Pressly got some press after the Twins traded him for Jorge Alcala and Gilberto Celestino, saying that the Astros recognized that he needed to change his mix of pitches simply to throw his superior breaking ball more often. It should not be overlooked that the Twins helped Pressly develop very well, and any tweaks the Astros have done are because they stand on the proverbial shoulders of giants.
 
Not signing a top-quality reliever: The Twins could have convinced themselves that Wade Davis or Greg Holland were worth big contracts. If they had done so, we'd probably now be lamenting how much we are on the hook. This isn't to say that the Twins shouldn't sign a more expensive reliever now, but only that in 2018 the options were poor and they were wise to avoid making a high-risk, low-reward mistake.
 
Moves that bombed
 
Leaning on Trevor Hildenberger: One of the biggest disappointments of the year was the failure of Hildenberger to step up as the Twins' next elite reliever. Did Molitor call on him too often--having him pitch in nearly half of the Twins' games? Did he wear down early and never recover? Was he thrust into a high-leverage role too soon in his career? Or is he just an average pitcher, and the Twins should not have given so much credence to his late 2017 performance? Hildenberger might be an area of focus for the new pitching staff. They have a lot of plates to spin in order to improve this bullpen, and Hildenberger might be the biggest and wobbliest.
 
Bringing back Belisle: This one's a puzzler to me: Matt Belisle was not a good pitcher in 2017 and got worse in 2018; why did the Twins sign him mid-season? The only thing I can think of is that the Twins wanted his leadership and cameraderie in the bullpen--to have him more as a player-coach and a mop-up pitcher rather than a true bullpen building block. Still, they must have realized that in August, as the end of July featured two bad Belisle outings that led to one-run losses. Maybe his playing days aren't done, but I surely hope they are done in Minnesota, although I'm open to the idea of hiring him as a minor-league pitching coach.
 
Duffing around the course: Tyler Duffey is just hanging around, not bad enough to be cut but not good enough to help the team win. I suppose he's better than relievers behind him on the depth chart, but I'm hoping the Twins bullpen improves to the point where it will be more obvious that the Twins can move on from Duffey.
 
Mind your own Busenitz: Alan Busenitz has been disappointing to be sure, and part of the problem was in keeping him away from the majors for two months, but he failed to make the most of his 23 appearances in the majors, showing that perhaps he did deserve to be in AAA after all. He'll be in the doghouse again to start 2019, and I have no problem making him earn his way back to the majors again as he's done three times already.
 
Subtraction by Addison: Reed was thought to be one of the top relievers on the free-agent market, and the Twins were able to snag him for only a two-year deal. He turned in very inconsistent performances in the second half, but I don't think this is too big a disappointment, and I'm glad he'll be in Minneapolis next year to bounce back and earn his next big contract.
 
We have the capability...
 
Well, the label "big spenders" is something of an exaggeration, but the Twins have the opportunity to spend more than ever before in longer-term contracts and set themselves up for success in 2019 and in their future. The Twins major-league payroll sits at around $60 million, leaving them $60-80 million to add for 2019 alone to reach even league average, and there's nothing stopping them from spending even more. The same wide-open salary continues in the future. It will be up to Falvey and Levine to spend it wisely, but they can't revert to Terry Ryan-style frugality.
 
Rocco Baldelli will lead that team
 
Their first task is to build out Rocco Baldelli's coaching staff. He should choose a pitching coach that he can trust, but also someone who can usher Twins pitchers into modernity. It seems currently that pitching strategy is changing faster than ever before, and the new pitching coach will need to manage openers, starters, quick hooks, and firemen--and nuture pitchers to throw more breaking balls, keep their velocities up as they age, avoid tipping pitches, prevent injuries, and manage fatigue better than any Twins pitching coach in years past. I have no idea who Baldelli, Falvey, and Levine should choose, but the choice is perhaps more important than ever before.
 
Better than they were before
 
The Twins' hitters have a few holes, and the opportunities for improvement are more obvious than last year. Here's how they should approach this team renovation.
 
Trust the supposed three best hitters: It would be far too hasty and foolish to give up on Sano or Buxton. Eddie Rosario has surpassed them and inspires more confidence for sure, but Sano and Buxton's trade value will never be lower than right now. Don't forget that they are 25 and 24 years old, 3-4 years before their statistically-likely prime. They still have growing and developing to do, and they were too good in the minors and in long stretches in the majors before for 2018's performances to be representative. Grant them a fresh start in the new year and I'm betting that Twins fans will be rewarded.
 
Trust Sano at third base: Good fielding has returned as a emphasis for the Twins, with Kepler, Buxton, and now Rosario helping out in the field, but to those names you can lighly pencil in Miguel Sano, who is just fine at third base, and far more valuable there than at DH. The Twins should keep Sano at third till it is utterly obvious that he shouldn't be playing there, and we seem to be a long way from that. Presuming that the Twins infield will be shifting much more than in 2018, the coaches will have to work out how best to play him--he can't be roaming in short right field like we saw Travis Shaw or Justin Turner do in the playoffs--but there is flexibility here and the coaches can make it work.
 
Sign a good-hitting second baseman: No, don't re-sign Logan Forsythe. The Twins need a very good hitter at second base more than they need a good-fielding shortstop. I'm not sure that Manny Machado is even a good fit nor nearly worth the money. I'd go with Jed Lowrie or Asdrubal Cabrera as free agent signings, but also look for someone arguably better on the trade market, like a one year rental of Scooter Gennett. The Twins have several in-house options for 2020 and beyond, so a one- or two-year commitment here makes a lot of sense.
 
Trade for a real slugging first baseman: There are a few disappointing options at first base on the free agent market, but there's a obvious name that might be gettable in a trade: One year of Paul Goldschmidt. I'd beware a bidding war, but trades for no-doubt mashers are not often regretted. If that doesn't work, a trade for Justin Smoak or Carlos Santana could be arranged, but the Twins should also look at taking on longer contracts if a good deal can be had for Wil Myers or Brandon Belt. But plan A should be Goldschmidt.
 
Sign a designated hitter: Picking up Logan Morrison didn't work out, but it was the right idea. Matt Adams or Lucas Duda could be a relatively inexpensive boost to a lineup that has been missing a go-to DH for years, though I still expect that Willians Astudillo and Tyler Austin will get starts at DH as well as corner infield positions throughout the year.
 
Plan on using Jake Cave often to keep Kepler, Buxton, and Rosario fresh. If any starting outfielder gets a nagging injury, put him on the disabled list without hesitation and keep him there till all are confident he is recovered.
 
Say goodbye to the hall-of-famer, has-beens, and almost-weres: Joe Mauer seems all but retired, and the Twins shouldn't entice him back unless it is for a true bargain on a one-year deal. Grossman, Gimenez, and Belisle should also retire and the Twins shouldn't feel forced to bring them back. Sadly, Danny Duffey doesn't seem to have a way back. I have no problem keeping him in Rochester in case he truly earns it back, but I wouldn't plan on it happening.
 
Better, stronger, faster
 
Improvements to the pitching staff need to emphasize faster fastballs, sharper curve balls, and above all, clear-cut quality. Lance Lynn or others like him should not be an option for this team unless they come even cheaper than last year. Also, the bullpen can't continue to limp along--the Twins are way behind in getting an advantage out of their relievers and it is time to end that.
 
Sign an almost-ace: I can't quite use the term "ace", as a pitcher in the top echelon is nearly impossible to get, but the the Twins need a clear-cut top-notch pitcher, and there's several to choose from. My pick is Nathan Eovaldi. With a 100 mph fastball and a tendency to avoid walks, he will give Twins fans both excitement and winning immediately. Trevor Cahill is another good option, or Patrick Corbin if you want to aim a little higher
 
Stick with what works: Trevor May might become great, we know Rogers and Moya are capable, and I mentioned staying faithful to Addison Reed. This gives the Twins four pitchers they can rely on--maybe not to be the top of the bullpen, but to at least stick around for the year.
 
Bring in expensive talent: I figure the Twins need two new top relievers in 2019, as well as one depth acquisition. Trading for any of these may be an option, but I think the bullpen is the best area to spend the deep pockets the Twins have starting this year. I'd target Jeurys Familia and Kelvin Herrera, and pick up a lefty like Jerry Blevins for good measure.
 
Manage the rest carefully: Hildenberger, Magill, and Busenitz haven't inspired confidence yet, so keeping them in Rochester till needed isn't a bad idea. Make sure they are trusted as true contributors in the majors before trusting them with a roster spot. Of course, we all hope that Hildenberger is very close to earning that trust, but there was much to cause doubt in him in 2018.
 
So here's my 2018 season-long roster, comprised of the 30 most important players, along with somewhat optimistic hoped-for WAR numbers for each. These numbers add up to a bit over 100 wins for the 2019 Twins. Most of these players will not hit these "hope" numbers, but some will, and others will come close, and a few will exceed them enough to make the Twins a contender in 2019. Join me in my optimism; a AL Central title and thus a World Series is within reach.
WAR 2017 2018 2019 hope CF Buxton 5.1 -0.4 5.01B Goldschmidt 5.2 5.1 4.53B Sano 2.5 0.0 3.7 LF Rosario 1.7 3.4 3.5 2B Lowrie 3.6 4.9 3.1RF Kepler 2.4 2.6 2.6SS Polanco 2.1 1.3 2.0C Castro 2.5 -0.2 1.5DH Adams 1.2 0.8 1.2 4O Cave 0.3 1.3 1.5CI Astudillo 0.7 1.4BC Garver 0.7 1.3 1.3MI Adrianza 0.9 0.5 1.0CI Austin 0.1 0.4 0.7SP Berrios 1.7 3.3 3.5SP Eovaldi 2.2 3.0 SP Gibson 0.2 2.8 2.6SP Odorizzi 0.1 2.6 2.1SP Pineda 1.1 1.7SP Romero 0.7 0.5RP Rogers 0.4 1.9 1.5RP Familia 0.3 1.8 1.0RP May 0.5 0.8RP Herrera 0.1 0.4 0.5RP Hildenberger 0.8 0.0 0.5RP Reed 0.9 -0.2 0.5RP Moya -0.1 0.1 0.3RP Busenitz 0.1 -0.8 0.3RP Magill -0.3 0.2 TEAM WAR 36.8 28.8 52.0Wins 85 78 100

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
-------
 
Now that the 2018 draft signing deadline has passed and a substantial amount of international free agents signed for the Twins, it is time to update my 2018 mid-season prospect list. As usual my mid-season lists are preliminary, unlike the off-season lists, and they have minimal commentary and analysis. Also, unlike other lists, players who made it to the majors have graduated from mine, also players older than 25 are not included. As a reminder, here is my off-season 2018 list:
 
The off-season top 60 list (2017 off-season in parenthesis) and ETA included.
 
1. Royce Lewis (--), SS/OF, 2020
2. Wander Javier (1), SS, 2020
3. Brusdar Graterol (13), RHP, 2020
4. Brent Rooker (--), 1B/LF, 2018
5. Fernardo Romero (4), RHP, 2018 - graduated
6. Rainis Silva (32), C, 2020 - traded
7. Blayne Enlow (--), RHP, 2020
8. Zack Littell (--), RHP, 2018 - graduated
9. Stephen Gonsalves (6), LHP, 2018
10. Lewin Diaz (3), 1B, 2020
11. Akil Baddoo (24), OF, 2020
12. Tyler Jay (2), LHP, 2018
13. Alex Kirilloff (8) OF, 2020
14. Luis Arraez (11), IF, 2019
15. Michael Montero (--), RHP, 2021
16. Nick Gordon (5), IF, 2018
17. Tyler Wells (54), RHP, 2020
18. Jose Miranda (--), IF, 2021
19. Jean Carlos Arias (36), CF, 2020
20. Jovani Moran (--), LHP, 2020
21. Lewis Thorpe (30), LHP, 2019
22. LaMonte Wade (22), OF, 2018
23 Yunior Severino (--), IF, 2022
24. Chris Paul (--), UT, 2019
25. Landon Leach (--), RHP, 2021
26. Andrew Bechtold (--), 3B, 2020
27. Travis Blankenhorn (15), 3B/1B/OF, 2020
28. Charlie Barnes (--), LHP, 2020
29. Tyler Watson (--), RHP, 2020
30. David Banuelos (--), C, 2020
31. Ben Rortvedt (16), C, 2021
32. Kohl Stewart (17), RHP, 2018
33. Alberoni Nunez (--), OF, 2021
34. Derek Molina (--), RHP, 2021
35. Bryan Sammons (--) LHP, 2020
36. Bailey Ober (--), RHP, 2020
37. Pedro Garcia (45), RHP, 2021
38. Lachlan Wells (29), LHP, 2020
39. Wander Valdez, (--) 3B, 2021
40. Aaron Whitefield (59), OF, 2020
41. Ricky De La Torre (--) SS, 2021
42. Jake Reed (25) RHP, 2018
43. Jacob Pearson (--), OF, 2022
44. Yeltsin Encarnacion (--) IF, 2022
45. Ryley Widell (--) LHP, 2022
46. Andrew Vasquez (52), LHP, 2019
47. Tom Hackimer (--), RHP, 2019
48. Kerby Camacho (--), C, 2021 - released
49. Hector Lujan (--), RHP, 2020
50. Colton Burns (--), OF, 2021
51. Cody Stashak -(55), RHP, 2019
52. Jaylin Davis, (39), OF 2019
53. Alex Robles, (--), OF, 2022
54. Ruben Santana, (--), IF, 2022
55. Carlos Suniaga, (--), RHP, 2022
56. Sandy Lugo, (--), RHP, 2020
57. Nelson Molina, (47), IF, 2020
58. Ben Rodriguez (--), C/1B, 2022
59. Carson Crites (--), 2B, 2022 - released
60. Jesus Toledo (--), LHP, 2022
 
Here is my mid-season 2018 list (2018 off-season ranking in parenthesis, followed by ETA) :
 
1. Brusdar Graterol (3), RHP, 2019
2. Royce Lewis (1), SS/OF, 2020
 
Same age, played at the same level. Could have gone either way. Graterol has ace stuff and his performance at the same team as a pitcher was a bit more impressive than Lewis's as a hitter thus this switch. 17 errors at SS in half a season for Lewis, also a concern. Might not remain the same this off-season. These two are very close.
 
3. Wander Javier (2), SS, 2020
 
Taking a mulligan for surgery in non-throwing, non-hitting shoulder. Still a true 5 tool player.
 
4. Brent Rooker (4), 1B/LF, 2018
 
Heir apparent to Joe Mauer, even as early as this September
 
5. Trevor Larnach (--), OF, 2020
6. Alex Kirilloff (13) OF, 2020
 
Huge jump because he delivered with the stick - fielding still an issue. Larnach similar player, but better defensively and more of a pure hitter, thus the ranking
 
7. Luis Arraez (14), IF, 2019
 
Could be the heir apparent to Brian Dozier starting in 2019. Purest hitter in the organization, glove will play fine in the least challenging position in the diamond.
 
8. Misael Urbina (--) OF, 2023
 
True five tool talent, he can fly through these rankings if he responds as a pro. Still 16.
 
9. Nick Gordon (16), IF, 2018
 
Ranking before his injury. Second half disappearances every season signal endurance/conditioning concern. 150 lb frame does not help
 
10. DaShawn Keirsey (--) OF, 2022
 
5 tool player looks a lot like Joe Benson from here.
 
11. Tyler Wells (17), RHP, 2020
 
The most consistent Twins' pitcher for the last two seasons; surprised he has not gained much momentum.
 
12. Blayne Enlow (7), RHP, 2021
13. Yunior Severino (23), IF, 2022
14. Akil Baddoo (11), OF, 2020
15. Ryan Jeffers (--), C, 2020
 
If he stays at catcher can be a tremendous asset for the Twins. 60+ power and 50+ contact already.
 
16. Michael Montero (15), RHP, 2021
17. Stephen Gonsalves (9), LHP, 2018
 
Disappointing season, esp. since his weakness (quality and command and control of the fastball) became even worse this season. Still helium in the national lists; sell high candidate.
 
18. LaMonte Wade (22), OF, 2018
19. Tyler Jay (12), LHP, 2018
20. Jovani Moran (20), LHP, 2019
21. Lewin Diaz (10), 1B, 2020
22. Travis Blankenhorn (27), 3B/1B/OF, 2020
 
Tremendous start, not so hot when the temps rose...
 
23. Lewis Thorpe (21), LHP, 2019
 
Might need another season to shake the spider webs. Pre-injury FB was at 95-97 at close to 70; now down to 92-93 and about 50-55
 
24. Yeltsin Encarnacion (44) IF, 2022
25. Victor Herredia (--) C/1B, 2023
26. Charlie Barnes (28), LHP, 2020
27. Andrew Vasquez (46), LHP, 2019
28. Jean Carlos Arias (19), CF, 2020
29. Zander Wiel (--), 1B/OF, 2018
 
Should receive consideration for minor league player of the year honors for the Twins
 
30. Jimmy Kerrigan (--), OF, 2018
31. Jeferson Morales (--), C, 2023
32. Taylor Grzelakowski (--) C, 2020
33. Jim Caceres (--) SS, 2023
34. Ben Rortvedt (31), C, 2021
 
Still not much of progress as a hitter, small for a catcher, arm exposed at Fort Myers.
 
35. Cole Sands (--), RHP, 2021
36. Jordan Balazovic (--), RHP, 2021
37. Landon Leach (25), RHP, 2021
38. Bryan Sammons (35) LHP, 2020
39. Ricky De La Torre (41) SS, 2021
40. Ruben Santana, (54), IF, 2022
41. Charles Mack (--) SS, 2023
42. Andrew Bechtold (26), 3B, 2021
 
Along with David Banuelos and Jose Miranda, the biggest drops as far as position players go
 
43. Wander Valdez, (39) 3B, 2021
44. Nomar Urdanetta (--) SS, 2023
45. David Banuelos (30), C, 2021
46. Jacob Pearson (43), OF, 2022
47. Jose Miranda (18), IF, 2021
48. Cody Stashak (51), RHP, 2019
49. Josh Winder (--), RHP, 2021
50. Jake Reed (42) RHP, 2018
51. Alberoni Nunez (33), OF, 2021
52. Pedro Garcia (37), RHP, 2021
53. Mark Contreras (--), OF, 2020
54. Jaylin Davis, (52), OF 2019
55. Lachlan Wells (38), LHP, 2020
56. Carlos Suniaga, (55), RHP, 2022
57. Chris Williams (--) 1B, 2021
58. Griffin Jax (--) RHP, 2020
 
First time he has been included in my lists; full time pro now with no Air Force responsibilities. Still lots of work to do.
 
59. Bailey Ober (36), RHP, 2020
60. Trevor Casanova (--) C, 2021
 
 
Dropped:
 
Chris Paul (24), UT, 2019
Tyler Watson (29), RHP, 2020
Kohl Stewart (32), RHP, 2018
Derek Molina (34), RHP, 2021
Aaron Whitefield (40), OF, 2020
Ryley Widell (45) LHP, 2022
Tom Hackimer (47), RHP, 2019
Hector Lujan (49), RHP, 2020
Colton Burns (50), OF, 2021
Alex Robles, (53), OF, 2022
Sandy Lugo, (56), RHP, 2020
Nelson Molina, (57), IF, 2020
Ben Rodriguez (58), C/1B, 2022
Jesus Toledo (60), LHP, 2022

There’s growing concern within the baseball community about the health of the MLB as an organization, and the game overall. Since the mid-2000s, attendance and television ratings have been dropping consistently. According to Baseball Reference, in the past 20 years attendance per game across the entire MLB peaked in 2007 at 32,696 per game. In the ten years since, there has been a steady decline in attendance per game all the way down to 29,908 per game in 2017. That is a decrease of just about 8.5 percent. I’m not including 2018 numbers in this analysis as we are still in season and the spring typically draws a smaller crowd. The commissioner’s office often talks about game length as being a driving factor in this decline, but I believe that is an oversimplification of the trend, and there are bigger factors in play.
 
Game Length and Attendance Trend Lines
 
In 1998, the MLB expanded to include the all current 30 teams. In this analysis, I’m using data from 1998 onward because it most fully represents the league we see now, and expansion often alters attendance for a wide variety of factors that I won’t be addressing in this discussion. Look at Figure 1 below:
 
 


 
 
Figure one, which compares attendance and game length, raises some questions about the validity of the League’s primary argument that game length is affecting financial success of the league. As you can see, these two lines don’t seem to be correlated at all besides a very faint trend. It’s also interesting to note that the total range in game lengths in this 20-year span is only 19 minutes, with the average length per 9 innings being 2 hours and 53 minutes. 13 of the 20 years fall within 5 minutes of the average game length. In other words, we are not seeing egregious volatility in game length in the MLB. At the very least, it’s a stretch to assume game length is the sole cause of the downward trend in attendance.
 
Reducing Game Length
 
I want to be clear in this post: I am not against making minor changes in baseball to speed up the game. I think in 2017 we were at a point in game length that was not sustainable over the long term (3 hours and 5 minutes/9 innings). The corresponding rule changes made for 2018 seem to have had a slight effect. So far in 2018, the game length per 9 innings is down to 2:59.
Something that does drives game time up considerably is pitches per plate appearance, as you can see below in Figure 2.
 


 
I heard suggestions such as lowering the mound once again to reduce the pitcher’s advantage, thus creating less strikeouts and reducing pitcher per plate appearance. In theory, this could work. When the MLB lowered the mound in 1969, run production increased for two years. However, in 1971 & 1972, it suddenly declined, leading to the implementation of the DH in the American League in 1973. If you went to lowering the mound in 2019, you may have a shorter game due to less strikeouts, but run production could spike so much that you would have to make another adjustment, or worse, the games actually got longer due to more runs. Not to mention changing the record books. So, what actions can the MLB take to help raise attendance levels?
 
The Real Reason Attendance is Down
 
The reason people aren’t attending games is because it’s too damn expensive. Since 2006, the average MLB ticket price has gone from $22.21 to $32.44, per Statista.com. That is an increase of 46% over just 12 years. This is an extreme burden on families, and this increase is seriously outpacing inflation or any significant change in the economic environment. ValuePenguin.com had a great article that was written in 2016 about the true cost of attending a Major League Baseball game. They found that when you consider the median household incomes in MLB cities, and account for all associated costs with attending a game (tickets, food, drinks, transportation), on average a fan must work 4.3 hours to offset the cost of a game. You won’t attend many games if you’re being hit with that every time.
 
Conclusion
 
What bothers me about this conversation is that it’s largely led by the commissioner’s office. The commissioner wants financial success for the owners and teams. I don’t consider myself a baseball purist, but I don’t want to see major changes happen to the game in hopes of shortening game length, when a simple solution of lowering ticket prices could increase attendance just the same. All the changes being suggested will have a marginal effect on the time it takes to play a baseball game. As we saw in Figure 1, in the past 20 years, the average game length has only varied by 19 minutes. If you want something drastic to return to the 2:30 games of the mid-20th century, you would have to reduce the count to 2 strikes and 3 balls, or something even more drastic. So, let’s start a conversation on the affordability of the games, get more people (especially kids and families) into parks around the country, and get baseball back on track. Long term, it’s in the owners’ and the League’s best interest.
 
-Miles

After two weeks of guiding hiking and birding trips my mind automatically finds feathered beauty and details so, of course, as I move back to the details of baseball my bird attention shifts with it. I see Blue Jays, Orioles, and Cardinals so the transition is easy.
 
Baseball is filled with bird incidents like the pigeon that landed on the field and then wandered over to Greg Bird on first base. There was the Kestrel that entertained Twins fans during a cold and rainy night when it was on the jumbotron catching insects (2010). The Toronto Star reported on an incident with former Twin and Twin City hero – Dave Winfield, “On August 4, 1983, more than 36,000 watched the Toronto Blue Jays play the New York Yankees at Exhibition Stadium. When Yankee star Dave Winfield threw a baseball at the end of the fifth inning warm-up, it came into disastrous convergence with a bird that had been watching in right-centrefield. The bird slumped lifelessly on the Astroturf.
 
“A police officer sitting on the edge of right field thought it was an intentional hit. Winfield said it was an accident. He was taken to 14 Division and charged with causing “unnecessary suffering to an animal.” The charge was later dropped, but the moment never really went away.”
 
The Minneapolis Tribune wrote an article about Gene Glynn, our Minnesota Coach, who watches birds at his home in Waseca. “I find birds in every city in every park near the baseball stadium,” Glynn says. “In Florida the shorebirds are all over the place, on the West Coast it’s all about gulls, terns and herons and in Central Park in New York you can see just about anything. Birds get me outdoors and keep me occupied.”
 
Besides the team baseball has Robins. Like Robin Ventura from the White Sox and Robin Yount from the Brewers and Robin Roberts from the Phillies – a pretty good threesome! Aaron Crow brings another of our common birds to the diamond and Dean and Don Crow had the proverbial cup of coffee. Mike Parrott played from 1977 – 1981.
Hawk Harrelson represents our raptors. Andre Dawson was known as the Hawk too. Turkey Gross in 1925 and Turkey Tyson in 1944 represent the bird that Ben Franklin wanted to replace the eagle as our national symbol. The Eagle was represented by Bill Eagle in 1898 and the Grey Eagle – Tris Speaker, hall of famer.
 
The German word for birds – Vogel – can be found in Otto Vogel from the early 1920’s and Ryan Vogelsong added the lyrics of our avian world too.
 
The Bird is well represented from the diminutive Birdie (actually he was not) Tebbetts, catcher, to Doug Bird, the pitcher who lasted 11 years in the majors. There was also George Bird in 1871, Frank Bird in 1872, and Greg Bird – current. But of course THE BIRD was Mark Fidrych who took the baseball world over during his too brief career.
THE BIRD would go 19 – 9 in his rookie yearwith a 2.34 era in 250 innings and the Tigers were 74 – 88 even with him. His 9.6 WAR and his 1.079 WHIP would satisfy any stathead, but his story goes downhill fast. He lasted five innings and won only 10 more games total and he would only live to be 54. There are numerous bios on Youtube but this one really captures the excitement of his year:
and in books The Bird, by Doug Wilson, but seeing him in a Tigers Uniform that magic summer of his rookie year is something no one could forget. On the ground shaping the mound with his hands, and with his general demeanor Mark connected with the fans. 
Willie Horton, his teammate said at his funeral, “Everyone playing in the major leagues today owes a debt of gratitude to Mark Fidrych. He brought baseball back to the people. He made it popular again. He helped save the game.”
 
Bird came in as the game was at a 1976 low point – owners had a lock out, free agency was just beginning and fans were disgusted. But Bird had such enthusiasm and charisma. People loved it when he talked to the ball, when he ran off the mound to congratulate teammates or when he shook hands with the umpire after the game.
He played for the $16,000 minimum wage and still loved everything about the experience. The unwritten rule (yup, one of those) in those days was not to take curtain calls. The Bird changed that. Described as “gawky, noisy and energetic with a huge mop of curly yellow hair…” he did not look like a typical ball player. In fact, he looked like Big Bird from Sesame Street and that gave him his nickname – a perfect fit.
 
His career ended because of a severely torn rotator cuff, maybe from his 24 complete games, but that was before the TJ surgery and the advances that now save pitchers careers. He was what baseball needs right now, a personality. Burn all the unwritten rules, we need authentic heroes on the diamond, we need real people we can relate to. THE BIRD was a savior and we need more of them. We may have a big fish – Mike Trout – right now, but it is the Bird, Reggie Jackson and others who jump out of the game and into the hearts of the fans that really make baseball.

A Closer Look


 
 
At this point, with the Twins busy Presidents Day weekend now officially come to a close, it can be said that most people (and those who frequent Twins Daily, especially) are aware that the hometown club completed a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi. The trade, first reported on Saturday night, had the Twins receiving Jake Odorizzi from the Rays in exchange for mid-level shortstop prospect Jermaine Palacios. Many were waiting for the other shoe to drop, certainly the Twins were not going to get Odorizzi - straight up - for a single prospect, and certainly not if that prospect was outside of their top 10 or 15 rankings.
 
After all, Jermaine Palacios, while a nice prospect and grades well - especially defensively - is 21 years old and playing at High A ball. Keith Law ranked Palacios at 24th best and MLB.com listed him as their 27th best prospect, and well behind other more highly touted shortstops in the system - namely, Royce Lewis, Nick Gordon and Wander Javier.
 
So how is it that the Twins achieved this kind of trade? What does that say about Odorizzi?
 
The answer is probably much more complicated, Perhaps the Rays were, indeed, very smitten with Palacios. His tools do grade out to stick at shortstop, albeit his upside looks to be more of a utility man than a regular. It seems unlikely the Twins were bidding against themselves, to be able to get a straight 1 for 1 on Odorizzi, and he has been rumored to several other teams this offseason including the Angels, Nationals, Yankees and Orioles. How is it that among several teams vying for a competent major league pitcher, the Rays weren't able to add more than a single mid-level prospect in return?
 
Lets not forget, either, the Rays top prospect in their system - Willy Adames - is a shortstop and a potential star at the MLB level. Palacios figures to be, at minimum, blocked at the MLB level for several years by Adames who has already progressed to Double-A and was a Southern League All-Star.
 
The Rays not only traded Odorizzi for a single prospect, but the prospect they received is likely system depth? So perhaps the better question is, what does the trade say about the other clubs perceived value of Jake Odorizzi?
 
Who is Jake Odorizzi?
 
Depending on who you ask and under what context, you'll get a different answer to this question. Around Twins social media, I've seen such differing opinions - from "Should he be the Opening Day starter? He may be our best pitcher" to "He's, at best, a number 4 starter". I would contend that he is likely the middle ground between these two, very different statements.
 
As background, Odorizzi was a first round draft pick (2008 32nd Overall, Brewers), reaching Class A in the Brewers system. He was traded in the offseason following the 2009 season to the Kansas City Royals where he, by the 2011 season, was ranked as the Brewers number 1 prospect. While he wasn't the primary piece in the trade that sent him from Kansas City to Tampa Bay (Wil Myers headlined that blockbuster trade, sending James Shields and Wade Davis to Kansas City in exchange for Myers, Odorizzi, and two others.) he was a key element, ranking as the Royals 4th best prospect in their system at the time.
 
After receiving a cup of coffee in the majors in both 2012 and 2013, accruing only 37 innings pitched through those two seasons, he has 4 full seasons in the majors.
 
By standard metrics he's been a valuable mid-rotation arm - putting up ERA's of 4.13, 3.35 and 3.69 in 2014-'16, with park adjusted xFIP of 3.90, 3.96 and 4.44, respectively. His K/9 average during the first three seasons was a respectable 8.42, while maintaining an average HR/FB rate of 9.9%, or just slightly below the MLB average.
 
 
Wait. What about 2017?
 
Notice that I omitted 2017 from his stat lines? I thought you might. Odorizzi had, by most accounts, an abysmal 2017 season. Limited to 143.1 innings in 2017 after two trips to the Disabled List (hamstring, back injury), he saw regression in multiple areas. His ERA, at 4.14, the worst mark he's had since his rookie season - in conjunction with a horrid 5.43 FIP.
 
His 3.83 BB/9 mark fell well below league average and his HR/FB was an awful (almost impressively awful if I hadn't seen Kyle Gibsons 18%HR/FB mark) of 15% - all while seeing his GB% fall to 30.6%.
 
Unsurprisingly, Odorizzi gave up 30 home runs in 2017 and the long ball indeed was a crux, paired with a 7.52 ERA during the third trip though the order.
 
Fatigue, injury, and you can't even chalk it (all) up to bad luck, with a very low .227 BABIP.
 
 
So, what's the forecast for 2018?
 
Travis Sawchik of Fangraphs has a very compelling article that suggests Odorizzi may be an adjustment away from rectifying some of his issues from last season. His elevated four-seam fastball approach, which reached was tied for the highest 4S fastball height in the major leagues. Sawchik suggest that pairing the increased height with with increased height of his split-change, he may be losing "tunneling", or the vertical separation between the four-seamer and his split-change up, which generally produced his highest whiff rate (22%) in his arsenal of pitches.
 
Twins pitching coach, the newly hired Garvin Alston, has stressed that locating the fastball with his staff is a top priority and it would seem that as Odorizzi's fastball goes, so goes the season for Odorizzi.
 
As Brooks Baseball's player card for Odorizzi reads "(Odorizzi's) four-seam fastball generates an extremely high number of swings and misses compared to other pitchers fourseamers".
 
In a nutshell, if he can effectively locate his fastball and mix in his split-change up with better tunneling, his chances of returning to a pre-2017 Jake Odorizzi are fairly good.
 
 
How Good Is He?
 
Twins Pitching Analyst, Josh Kalk, hired this past December and formerly a Senior Analyst for the Tampa Bay Rays likely has as much information on Odorizzi as anyone, and it would follow that recommendations he may have had on Odorizzi held some weight in regards to the Twins trading for him. That said, what can we expect from him in the upcoming 2018 season?
 
Odorizzi, at 4 full years in the league, has shown the consistency (apart from 2017, which may or may not be an anomaly) of a number 3 or 4 starter, depending on the rotation he's placed in.
 
Baseball Reference has similar pitchers as Danny Salazar and Jeremy Hellickson - and if he pitches like pre-2017 Odorizzi is a fair comparision, though I would argue he would be a perfect bridge between those two pitchers. He won't miss as many bats as Salazar and will miss more bats than Hellickson, when on.
 
Salazar, when healthy (and maybe not pitching in the same rotation as Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco), is likely a number 2/3 (his peripherals are great, with 12.8 K/9 and a FIP of 3.48 - but he walks too many hitters) and Hellickson is likely a number 5 (if you wanted to look at worst case scenario of progression for Odorizzi, I would look at the staggering decline of Hellickson post-2016.)
 
Conclusion
 
So, no. I don't believe Odorizzi is the Twins best pitcher. Jose Berrios will likely hold that mantle this season, barring a trade for an established ace or a surprise signing of Jake Arrieta. Even Santana, if healthy and capable or repeating (or coming close to repeating) his 2017 season would provide superior results.
 
That said, the Odorizzi trade gave the Twins something they need - an arm capable of holding down a middle of the rotation spot, keep them in games and get some K's when needed. He slots nicely in between Berrios, Santana when he returns, with Gibson occupying the 4 spot.
 
Temper your expectations, Twins fans. We didn't sneak one by the Rays and snag a front of the rotation starter, but we did get a young, controllable, arbitration eligible middle of the rotation-type arm - for essentially a High A projected utility infielder. That's pretty impressive.
 
 
 
Twitter: @four_six_three

State of the Twins - Starting Rotation


 
 
Baseball is back. Pitchers and catchers have reported to the Twins Spring Training site in Fort Myers, along with a sprinkling of position players - including Joe Mauer, who we can only suspect is in "the best shape of his life" at this point in his career. All jokes aside, the 2018 season is just around the corner and it doesn't come without some question marks, most notably, the state of the starting rotation.
 
If you're a regular to Twins Daily, or follow the Twins social media outlets, Ervin Santana's injured finger will put him on the shelf for 10-12 weeks and has been widely reported. Santana, 2017 Twins Opening Day starter and All Star, will likely miss the entire opening month of the 2018 season while recovering from this injury. By my estimation, that would put breakout star from the 2017 season Jose Berrios in line for the Opening Day start and the defacto number one starting pitcher to start the year.
 
With few "locks" in the rotation, Santana, Berrios and Kyle Gibson likely being the only three starters guaranteed a starting spot, that leaves a quandary for the remaining two starting jobs - and in all reality, with Santana's injury, 3 starting jobs.
 
The Twins entered the post season with the goal of addressing a few areas, starting pitching and the bullpen being of primary concern. While they addressed the bullpen - Fernando Rodney, Addison Reed and Zack Duke being added via free agency this winter, the only starting pitcher add was Michael Pineda. While I love the addition of Pineda - I believe there could be a huge potential for value there, post-Tommy John for the former Yankee/Mariner - he is not projected to be available until late summer, perhaps even September at the earliest. So, for all intents and purposes, his 2 year deal is focused on potential value in the 2019 season and perhaps the 2018 playoffs.
 
The Twins primary target in this offseason free agent market, Yu Darvish, signed a 6 year/ $126 Million dollar deal with the Chicago Cubs. Reportedly the Twins were not willing to extend an offer past 5 years, and while it hasn't been confirmed (to my knowledge) I assume the AAV offered by the Twins was comparable to what he received from the Cubs. I won't beat a dead horse, at this point Darvish is off the table, and while I personally felt the Twins should have done everything feasible to sign Darvish (including a 6th year, opt out clause, no trade/limited no trade, incentives, etc.) I, obviously, am not privy to the details of what the Twins offered. Read: Twins may have done all of that, Darvish may have just preferred Chicago over everyone else.
 
So, where does that leave us? Well, there was always an opportunity for in-house competition for the 5th starting pitching spot, we'll start there. Phil Hughes, off of his second rib surgery, will be in the mix, along with a post-Tommy John Trevor May. Among those who had a cup of coffee in the majors last year, Aaron Slegers and probably to a lesser extent Felix Jorge, and exciting young pitchers Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero and Zach Littell. Adalbuerto Mejia, who had a fairly up and down 2017, also projects to be competing for a spot - he would be the lone left hander in the rotation, with his experience in 2017 and flashes of ability, I expect him to be among the favorites.
 
The Twins have expressed interest in a few of the remaining free agent pitchers left on the market, including Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb - and also have been loosely connected to Jake Arrieta, though Lavelle E. Neil reported the chances of signing Arrieta were "remote". I would dare say by remote, he means 'snowballs chance in Hades'. I've been wrong before, though. They have also been reportedly interested in the next tier of free agent pitchers - Jaime Garcia, Jason Hammel, Jason Vargas and (I hope its a 'take a flier' kind of interest...) Chris Tillman.
 
Any of those starting pitchers would improve the depth of the starting rotation, only Arrieta would truly provide anything more than a "number 3" type pitcher. Even so, Arrieta at this point in his career, mileage on his arm and truly Phil Hughesian decrease in velocity from 2016 to 2017 (both had a decrease in FB velocity of 2 MPH) he slots better as a number 2 starter. Optimally, signing both Lynn and Cobb to free agent contracts would solidify a Twins rotation. Arrieta would likely require as much, or more, money to sign than Lynn and Cobb combined - he reportedly turned down a Cubs offer that matched or close to matching the $126 Million they gave Darvish, also he is represented by Scott Boras. Signing any of the Garcia-Hammel-Vargas tier would be a solid move for depth in the back end of the rotation, all are very capable of being serviceable 4/5's.
 
Aside from free agency, the Twins offered a formal trade package to the Tampa Bay Rays for Chris Archer. Its hard to say how serious the offer was, or what was included - much speculation had Max Kepler as a primary piece - but Archer is probably the most sought after trade target in baseball. I would suspect any offer the Twins made that didn't include Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton or Jose Berrios was probably a non-starter for the Rays - that said, including any of those names for the Twins would be... well it would be very, very stupid. Jake Odorizzi is also on the Twins radar. I, personally am not excited to part with any highly regarded prospect for Odorizzi, and certainly not for Max Kepler.
 
Potential targets for the Twins could include pitchers Colin McHugh (Astros), Marcus Stroman (Blue Jays), Julio Teheran (Braves), Sean Manaea (A's), among several others. Stroman is more or less in the same boat as Archer, it would take a very solid offer (and a crowbar) to pry him from the Blue Jays. McHugh, in all fairness this pick was inspired by conversation had by Brandon Warne and Ryan Turnquist on their 'Locked on Twins' podcast, may be the odd man out of the rotation/swing-man situation in Houston - he might be a great under the radar pickup in trade. Fangraphs projections actually have him putting up better ERA/FIP and K/9 numbers in 2018 than all current projected Twins starters. Julio Teheran is another interesting target, and I plan on elaborating more on both him and McHugh in a later article.
 
Thank you to all who made it to the end, I appreciate every reader. My intention here on Twins Daily is to upload at least one blog article a week on various topics Twins related, and if you have any suggestions, thoughts or comments please feel free to share them! I can also be found on Twitter @four_six_three if you enjoy more Twins related topics!
 
 
Twitter @four_six_three

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
----
 
This is the next segment in the 2018 Twins top 60 prospect list. You can find the introductory segment that discusses qualifications to be on this list and presents the players who were on the 2017 list but are not in this list here. You can find the list of the previous rankings here: 56-60, 55-51, 46-50 , 41-45, 36-40. You can find all segments in this series here.
 
Here are players 31-35 in reverse order with their 2017 ranking in parenthesis. Players no in the 2017 top 60 list are indicated by (--)
 
35. Bryan Sammons (--)
DOB: 4/27/1995; Age: 22
Positions: LHP
Bats: L, Throws: L
Height: 6'4", Weight: 235 lbs
Acquired: Drafted in the 8th round in 2017
Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: A (2017)
ETA: 2020
 
Bryan Sammons was drafted in the 8th round of the 2017 draft by the Twins as a Senior from Western Carolina University. The Wilmington, NC native have had an unremarkable College career until he appeared in the Cape Cod league the summer of 2016, winning the title game and going 1-0 with a 1.53 ERA in 10 games (4 starts.) He pitched 29-1/3 innings, with a 1.36 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9, and 7.1 K/9. His senior year he pitched in 16 games (15 GS) for 104-1/3 innings, wiht a 1.20 WHIP, 11.3 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9. He started his pro career at Elizabethton, where he pitched in 7 games (3 starts) for 24-2/3 innings, striking out 31 (11.3 K/9, 32.3 K%), walking 7 (2.6 BB/9, 25 K-BB%) with a 1.46 ERA, 2.76 FIP, and 0.85 WHIP (.228 BABIP). Mid-season after dominating Appalachian League hitters, he moved to the Midwest League Cedar Rapids and continued his successful seasona pitching in 6 games (5 starts) for 25-2/3 innings with 35 strikeouts (12.3 K/9, 31.5 K%) walking 11 (3.9 BB/9, 21.6 K-BB%) with a 3.51 ERA, 3.07 FIP and 1.29 WHIP (.318 BABIP).
 
The big lefty pitched 154-1/3 innings between college and pros, and has the looks of a rotation workhorse. He held lefties to a .143 batting average and righties to a .235 at Cedar Rapids. His fastball sits at 88-91 and has the ability to change velocities. Also has a curve, slider/cutter, and an changeup that are average but improving.
 
Likely 2018 path: Starting in the Cedar Rapids rotation, with an outside possibility of moving to Fort Myers based on Spring Training.
 
34. Derek Molina (--)
DOB: 7/27/1997; Age: 20
Positions: RHP
Bats: L, Throws: R
Height: 6'3", Weight: 195 lbs
Acquired: Drafted in the 14th round in 2017
Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: GCL (2017)
ETA: 2021
 
Derek Molina was drafted in the 14th round of the 2017 draft by the Twins as a draft eligible Sophomore from Merced College. The Turlock, CA native transferred there from Cal State Northridge, with the intend of being a two way player, pitcher and shortstop. Even though he hit .356/.456/.550 in 160 AB, the Twins drafted him as a pitcher. In his Sophomore season he pitched for 15 games (1 start) for 28-1/3 IP with a 0.95 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 13.7 K/9, and 2.5 BB/9. He was assigned to the GCL as a pro and continued his success pitching in 10 games (2 starts) for 16-2/3 innings striking out 21 (11.3 K/9, 33.3 K%), walking 3 (1.6 BB/9, 28.6 K-BB%) with an 1.08 ERA, 1.44 FIP, and 0.90 WHIP (.308 BABIP).
 
The converted shortstop has a plus mid 90s fastball with a lot of movement, and an above average changeup with a good feel, complemented by a work in progress breaking ball. He has excellent command of all his pitches. Still very raw, but with very high potential and the mentality to close games, if needed (Between College and the GCL he amassed 8 saves in 2017). However the Twins will likely see what he can do as a starter the more accustomed he gets with pitching. He is a player that might jump up these ranking really quickly, in the manner of Brusdal Graterol.
 
Likely 2018 path: In extended Spring Training and then in the Elizabethton rotation, or pen, depending on the Twins' draft.
 
33. Alberoni Nunez (--)
DOB: 2/17/1999; Age: 18
Positions: OF
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6'1", Weight: 180 lbs
Acquired: Signed as an international free agent on July 2, 2016
Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: DSL (2017)
ETA: 2021
 
Alberoni Nunez was signed as an international free agent on July 2, 2016 by the Twins from San Domingo, Dominican Republic. His first pro season was in the DSL where he was a monster with the bat (.352/.420/.545, .457 wOBA, 172 wRC+) and played CF and RF. For comparison purposes, Miguel Sano's numbers at the DSL were .344/.463/.547, .485 wOBA and 191 wRC+. Nunez walked 10.4% of the time and struck out only 18.1%, which is really optimistic of someone with a .194 IsoP as an 18 year old. Nunez has some speed as well, stealing 11/19 bases and harvesting 7 triples. An interesting player to follow when he comes Stateside.
 
Likely 2018 path: In extended Spring Training and then in the GCL outfield
 
32. Kohl Stewart (17)
DOB: 10/7/1994; Age: 23
Positions: RHP
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6'3", Weight: 195 lbs
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round in 2013
Professional Experience: 5; Highest level: AAA (2017)
ETA: 2018
 
Kohl Stewart was drafted by the Twins in the 1st round (4th overall) of the 2013 draft from St Pius X High School in Houston, TX. Stewart is one of those players that elicit a lot of conflicting emotions when evaluated, because of the high expectations based on his potential and drafting position, which he apparently has not come close to fulfilling. He started his professional career in the GCL the year he was drafted and pitched in 6 games, 3 starts, for 16 innings, striking out 16, walking 3, for a 1.69 ERA, and 0.938 WHIP. He also made a start in Elizabethton that season for 4 innings, striking out 8, allowing a hit and a walk, after he recovered from a foot injury he suffered while stepping on a sea shell on the beach. The next season (2014) he moved to single A Cedar Rapids, where, about 3 years younger than the league, he started 19 games (87 IP), struck out 62 (6.4 K/9, 17.2 K%) and walked 24 (2.5 BB/9, 10.5 K-BB%) and finished the season with 2.59 ERA, 3.73 FIP, and 1.138 WHIP (.270 BABIP), while fight shoulder tenderness. After that season MLB.com ranked him 36th best prospect in Baseball, and the Baseball Prospectus ranked him 28th. Stewart had a somewhat disappointing following season in 2015 for the Miracle. He started 22 games after losing about a month in the DL because of elbow inflammation. He pitched 129-1/3 innings had 45 BB (3.1 BB/9, 4.7 K-BB%) and 71 K (12.8 K% and 4.9 K/9) for a 3.20 ERA, 3.45 FIP, and 1.38 WHIP (.308 BABIP) The hope was that the 4th overall pick will miss a lot of bats, as he did in 2013 where in 24 IP in both Rookie teams he walked 4 and struck out 24, but he did not. Potentially his injury was to blame, but that was not a very good season for him. Last season he repeated in the high A Miracle where he improved enough (9 GS, 51-2/3 IP, 44 K, 7.7 K/9, 20.7 K%, 19 B, 3.3 BB/9, 11.7 K-BB%, 2.61 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 1.12 WHIP, .253 BABIP) to be promoted to AA Chattanooga the end of May. There, his numbers flattened out again (16 GS, 92 IP, 47 K, 4.6 K/9, 11.8 K%, 44 B, 4.3 BB/9, 0.8 K-BB%, 3.03 ERA, 4.49 FIP, 1.47 WHIP, .291 BABIP) before finishing the season in the DL with right biceps tendonitis. Other than a game at Rochester, Stewart spent all last season in Chattanooga starting in 16 games, pitching 77 innings striking out 52 (6.1 K/9, 15.5 K-BB%), walking 45 (5.3 BB/9, 2.1 K-BB%,) hitting 4 and throwing 13 wild pitches. Ended with ta 4.09 ERA, 4.35 FIP, 1.52 WHIP and .296 BABIP. He spent good chunks of the season in the DL with left knee tendonitis.
 
Here is what I wrote last season about Stewart:
 
It appears that Stewart's ceiling moved after each of his seasons, from a top of the rotation flamethrower, compared to fellow Texan Roger Clemens when drafted to a bottom of the rotation pitch to contact pitcher who will utilize his ground outs (about 1.8 as many as fly outs for his career) to get bats out. I think that the true is somewhat in between. There are a few things that have stalled Stewart's development: First and foremost Stewart is still learning how to pitch at 23 years old. He was primary football player who was on his way to be a College quarterback before the Twins drafted him and he used to throw the ball past high schoolers in the Houston Catholic School circuit. His stuff is excellent. He has a plus to plus plus four seamer that hits 96, which he alternates with a plus 2 seamer in the low 90s and supplements it with a close to plus hard slider/cutter in the low-mid 80s, an above average high 70s curveball and an average change up. His command is about average at this point and the primary reason of his declining K/BB ratio. The issue with his command is his mechanics that are not smooth. This issue has also caused him the nagging injuries (other than the seashell one) which he has been battling with all his pro career. At this point the Twins and Stewart will be better served by taking a step back and re-examining his mechanics, working on a consistent, repeatable delivery that will help him be successful, instead of rushing him again. If it were up to me, I would have him start 2017 in Extended Spring Training to do this, instead of a league that is 3 years older than him, and move him to AA with a new delivery and confidence and a way to excel, avoid injuries, and reach his potential. Not sure that the Twins will do so...
 
I feel more that ever that this is a make or break season for him. He was left unprotected for the Rule 5 draft and was not selected; that must have been a wake up call. The Twins just need to do the right thing and try to fix his mechanics, before throwing him out there an having yet another disappointing season, his last before he becomes a minor league free agent...
 
Likely 2018 path: In the Rochester rotation, depending on health.
 
31. Ben Rortvedt (16)
DOB: 9/25/1997; Age: 20
Positions: C
Bats: L, Throws: R
Height: 5'10", Weight: 190 lbs
Acquired: Drafted in the 2nd round in 2016
Professional Experience: 2; Highest level: A (2017)
ETA: 2021
 
Ben Rortvedt was drafted by the Twins in the 2nd round of the 2016 draft from the Verona, WI Area High School. He started his pro career in the GCL where he played in 20 games (59 AB) hitting .203/.277/.254 with 5 BBs and 8 Ks, before he moved up to Elizabethton for the last 13 games of the season where in 40 AB he hit .250/.348/.250 with 5 BB, and 2 K. He mostly batter third, fifth and sixth in the GCL and on the 7th spot in Elizabethton. He was rushed to Cedar Rapids last season, which was forgettable for him. He hit .224/.284/.315 with a .279 wOBA, and 71 wRC+. He also had career worsts in walks (6.5%) and Strikeouts (17.9%). He had reverse splits hitting LHPs remarkably (.311/.400/.393) but neutralized against RHPs (.202/.253/.296). His OPS by month was .229, .510, .953, .575, .711, .364, which indicated that other than a hot spell in June, he was unremarkable the whole season.
 
He has a good feel in the catcher position which he played in 86 of his 89 total games (he was the DH for 3 games.) Good arm with 36% CS, few issues blocking the ball (15 PB for the season,) but overall a lot of promise, but a lot of youth and development ahead of him to reach his potential that is that of an above average two ways MLB-regular catcher. His hitting tool is just not there, and I am not sure the that Twins did him a favor rushing him to full season ball. There are questions at this point whether his hitting will be good enough for him to have a shot in the majors. Catchers develop later, and maybe slowing down will help the former second round draft pick.
 
Likely 2018 path: Repeating Cedar Rapids.
 
Next: 26-30

As a fan whose lifestyle is most kindly described as thrifty, the pay calculations of baseball players has long bothered me. Why would a player who is young but exceptionally gifted be payed a pittance? Why would a player who was once productive but has for various reasons become unproductive be paid 10 to 20 times more? Why would a player who is productive and may remain so or may as likely become unproductive be guaranteed 200 times more?
"Because the market and it's rules allow it" has essentially been the response. If it take s $50 million, or $100 million to get an experienced player who has been greatly underpaid; if a team is willing to pay them and get a small percentage of the expected value for the monetary investment, so be it.
We are finally seeing the beginning of this system cracking. While I welcome the change, I don't welcome the fights likely to ensue. Can a team shield itself from this?
This offseason, with a few exceptions teams are beginning to step back from what have historically been vast overpays for currently good but soon likely to decline productivity. This makes sense. But at the same time those same teams will continue to pay next to nothing for some players that will provide value far greater than their pay. This does not make sense. A market correction is understandable; but a correction on one part without a correction on the other will result in some issue. In this case, that issue may be a player strike. Perhaps it will start small until the next CBA, or perhaps or it will happen all at once in 4 years.
Rather than going any further on the complaints, how can a team get ahead of the issue, and is there any advantage to doing so?
What if a team chooses to provide fairer pay to young players by internally increasing all pre-arbitration salaries to amounts rarely seen? If the Twins contract offer to free agents included this guarantee, would any veteran player care?
Will that increase improve player moral, and will that have an effect on effort, on productive, on things that make a ball club better?
Teams created analytics and research departments to improve their outcomes. Is there a market deficiency here that could be altered to be ahead of the curve? Would a team doing so be more attractive to free agents? Would fans care? Would they react positively and support the team in greater ways (more dollars)?
I believe this is likely something that might effect the teams appearance to free agents greater in 2019 and 2020 more so than in 2018, but since 2018 is what currently affects it, here is my example.
 
Dear Yu Darvish (or Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb, or whomever you wish with dollars and possibly years changed appropriately),
Effective 2018, the Twins will be increasing the salaries for pre-arbitration eligible players 2 times the standard rate calculation. This amount will increase to 3 times the standard rate in 2019, to 4 times the standard rate in 2020 and to 5 times the rate in 2021.
Further increases will be likely in 2022.
Beginning in 2019 and ending in 2021, arbitration-eligible numbers will also be increased with the final percentages being an increase of 100% - 90% for players under $1 million, by 75%-60% for players over $1 million but under $3 million, by 50%-35% for those between $3 million and $5 million, and by 25%-15% for those between $5 million and $10 million. The percentages will be based on a sliding scale which decreases for greater salaries which is detailed on the attached.
In order to pay all players a fairer wage, veteran players in free agency will, must, see their wages affected to some degree. Our offer is reflective of this change, though we have attempted to keep those changes minimal and have included incentives based off of the amount of innings pitched in later years.
Beginning in 2018 your 5 year salary schedule would be the following: $28 million, $30 million, $25 million (up to $3 million incentives at 190 innings), $20 million (up to $5 million incentives at 190 innings), $17 million (up to $7 million incentives at 190 innings). The base salary total is $120 million up to $135 million with incentives met. We acknowledge that based off of past contracts for free agents, the amount would likely have been $180 - $150 million over 6 or 5 years. But we also acknowledge that a change must come and will come. We want to be a driver in that change and ask you to join us in being a driving force for fairer pay practices.
By the year 2021 players base salary with the Twins will begin at $2.5 million, with an estimated total salary increase of $20 million.
By the year 2021 arbitration salaries as compared with 2018 salaries would be $22 million to $14 million (based off of current Twins players likely to be in the system we estimate this actual amount to be $65 million compared to $50 million).
The total increase for the year 2021 which must be reflected in free agent payments is $32.5 million, with total increases over the 4 year period being far greater.

The Twins made an unexpected addition to their burgeoning bullpen over the weekend, adding former Mets and Red Sox reliever Addison Reed on a two-year pact worth $16.75 million. The deal profiles well for the Twins on a number of fronts. At 29, Reed is at the younger end of a relief pitching market deep in high quality back end bullpen arms. Reed represents the first multi-year deal the Twins have ever signed with an outside reliever in free agency. In spite of this, the Twins locked Reed up on a short contract, at a price which they undoubtedly would have had to surpass had they signed him earlier in free agency.
 
Reed joins a Twins bullpen shaping up to be vastly different, and potentially much improved over its 2017 iteration. In addition to returning standout Trevor Hildenberger, the Twins have added Fernando Rodney, presumably filling the vacant ninth inning role, and Zach Duke, returning from an injury-plagued 2017 season. In the former trio, the Twins seemed to have established a penchant for the traits they are pursuing in improving their bullpen; inducing ground balls and a lot of strikeouts, hardly a pioneering recipe for success. In Reed however, they have added a pitcher who generates more fly balls, so what about Reed has made him such a consistent a reliable late inning reliever?
 
There’s no real intricacy in Reed’s pitch mix. He throws a four seem fastball around 66% of the time, a slider 33% of the time, and a changeup about as often as Byron Buxton gets caught stealing a base. Reed has excellent control, posting a walk rate of 1.51 BB/9 in 2016 and 1.78 BB/9 in 2017. Reed’s 2017 BB/9 was good for 11th among relievers who pitched at least 50 innings. This level of control was not always a staple of Reed’s pitching. In his first 3 seasons in MLB his BB/9 oscillated between 2.90 and 3.05. While this may seem like a trivial difference, this is a difference of around 10-11 walks over a 75 inning sample, a big deal when you’re constantly pitching in high leverage situations. So what is at the root of Reed’s improved control since the beginning of the 2016 season?
 
In 2016, Reed produced a dramatic improvement in his overall numbers. In addition to refining his control, Reed stranded around 5% more baserunners, increased his K/9 from 8.2 to 10.55 and dropped his xFIP from 4.04 to 2.09. Reed has never had elite velocity. While some have commented on a dip in velocity throughout the past two seasons, his average four seam fastball velocity has remained fairly consistent, dropping from 93.66 mph in April of 2015 to 92.72 mph in October of 2017. So if Reed isn’t blowing hitters away, how did his K/9 improve and stick above 9.0 in his last two seasons?
 
The number that jumps out in Reed’s improvement from 2015 to 2016 is his F-Strike% (percentage of the time Reed is throwing a first pitch strike). In 2015 Reed’s F-Strike% was around 56%. In 2016, it jumped to 70%. For the sake of comparison, old friend Pat Neshek had an F-Strike% of 71.1% in 2017 and had an incredible BB/9 of 0.87. This is a dramatic improvement from Reed which is even more impressive when visualized.
 
Here’s a look at Reed’s heat map from 2015. This charts the percentage a pitch falls within a sub-location of the strike zone. For all three of these searches I looked at heat maps representing the first pitch of a plate appearance, exclusively when Reed threw his four seem fastball. You’ll immediately notice a stark contrast between 2015 and 2016. Reed improved in two notable areas, pounding the strike zone with a greater level of consistency, and using a greater portion of the strike zone when throwing first pitch strikes. We see a similar performance in 2017 (although not quite as impressive). Interestingly, Reed’s obvious trend in locating his first pitch strikes higher in the zone in resulted in opposing batters OPS increasing from .587 in 2016, to .862 in 2017.
 






 
So where does Reed fit in the back end of a Twins bullpen which has been dramatically upgraded from a year ago? Initially, there was contention that adding Reed might create a closer controversy in Minnesota. The Twins had recently added Fernando Rodney to the pen on a one year deal. It seems as if the Twins will stick with Rodney as their primary ninth inning option. Since taking on his role with the Twins, Paul Molitor has been criticized in his bullpen management for traditionalism, a tendency to use each of his relievers in a pre-determined role. Intractably funneling Rodney into save situations may allow Molitor the luxury of using both Reed and Trevor Hildenberger as more flexible relievers, whose appearances are dictated by the leverage of a given situation, rather than the inning they are pitching in. In addition to providing Molitor with another quality arm, Reed may provide the impetus for Molitor to get more creative in facilitating the evolution of the Twins bullpen, maximizing the potential of a vastly upgraded group.

Not too long ago, Tom had the great idea for the bloggers to list their breakout candidate for 2018 in his Twins Weekly article. So I spent days...nay, hours...nay, minutes(!) scouring some of my favorite baseball resources looking for the dark horse breakout candidate that nobody would ever think of. Minutes (!!), looking for the dark horse breakout candidate that would take me from a blogger-in-training to a Schefter-esque insider. Minutes (!!!), looking for the dark horse breakout candidate that would leave readers wondering if I am some crazy baseball sorcerer or just plain crazy. After awhile I thought to myself: "What are you doing?? Just listen to your gut." So here is where I fell. My breakout candidate for 2018, the 2016 and 2017 TD MiLB Pitcher of the Year, is 23-year-old LHP Stephen Gonsalves. So much for a "dark horse", eh?
 
Gonsalves had a terrific 2017 where his most notable improvement was his command finishing almost a full walk less per nine innings than his career average (2017: 2.54 BB/9 v. 2013-2016: 3.47). Over 46 tracked fastballs (PITCHf/x has only tracked 71 total pitches), his average velocity sits at just 89.72 mph, which means control is going to be a key factor for him to have any success. Surprisingly, and despite his lack of velocity, he finished the 2017 MiLB season with a 9.65 K/9 pitching 87.1 innings at AA and 22.2 innings at AAA and a 10.78 K/9 in 74.1 innings during the 2016 season at AA. In that same timeframe he did struggle with his command posting a 4.48 BB/9, so we could say that 10+ K/9 was a result of being "wildly effective" a la Edwin Jackson. An improvement in command over a two-year period is another reason why I see him taking the next step this year.
 
Gonsalves batted ball data in minors suggests that he is a flyball pitcher, which isn't a huge deal as Target Field is a pitchers park and...well...you know...Buxton/Rosario/Kepler. But what impressed me even a little more is that hitters don't hit him well. At levels where he made 15+ starts his LD% are as follows: 17.2% (2015 High A), 13% (2016 High A), 18.1% (2016 AA), and 19.2% (2016 AA) which are all below the MLB average of 21%. Admittedly, I know this is a little bit of apples and oranges using a MLB average to analyze minor league numbers, but I do think it gives you a gauge of where he's at. Again, Target Field tends to treat fly ball pitchers well especially with our defense...another positive sign that this could be his year.
 
For me the make or break variable for Stephen Gonsalves will be the development of his slider and curveball. Below you will find a graphic from Brooks Baseball that uses a standardized score to rate Stephen's velocity and movement against other pitchers who fit similar criteria. Unfortunately, this is a very small sample as they only tracked 71 pitches over Gonsalves' 2016 Arizona Fall League appearances. To briefly explain this chart, a negative number means he is below average and a positive number means he is above average.

You might notice that his slider and curveball weren't great in this limited sample. There is no PITCHf/x data for him other than this and no other resource (fangraphs, baseball ref, etc.) keeps very great MiLB SABR stats. In a recent interview with Seth Stohs, Stephen said that he was able to work on his slider so much in 2017 that "it is almost as good as his change up". If this is true and if he can carry this into 2018, then Stephen already has three solid pitches in his arsenal. In that same interview, he said that he has been working with former big leaguer David Wells this season who was known for his curveball:

 

If Wells can help him develop his curveball into a reliable 4th pitch, then I think Stephen will be primed to make the next jump. As I said before, I think his slider and curveball are his biggest question marks coming into the season and will ultimately define if he spends most if his time in Minneapolis or Rochester this year.
 
So what does all this mean for 2018? I think Gonsalves is part of the Spring Training battle for a back end rotation spot but ultimately starts the year at AAA. He will perform well at AAA to the point where he will be the guy called on to fill in during DL stints or for a spot start here and there. Eventually, he makes his way to the MLB roster and doesn't look back. I think he provides a boost to the back end of the rotation that may not be RoY/Cy Young worthy, but that consistently gives you a chance to compete every 5th day.
 
What do you guys think? Who are some other breakout candidates? Anyone have a breakout candidate from a lower level in the Twins organization who may rise quickly in 2018?

This article was originally posted back in January, but with Mauer's 2000th hit Tom wanted various Mauer articles. I haven't changed much, but have added more data to support my opinion. I'd also just like to mention that I did not change my opinion on a potential salary for 2019 and beyond despite his torrid start to the season.
 
It's no secret that Joe Mauer is entering the final year of his 8 year, $184 million contract extension signed in 2010. It's also not a secret that Mauer isn't the player he was in 2009 or in the years leading up to that MVP season. What does seem to be a secret, is what thoughts "Falvine" has on Mauer's future past the 2018 season. There are really only three options, which I will breakdown below.
 
1. Stay with the Twins
Personally, I think this is the most likely scenario. He's from here, his family is here, he's spent his entire career here, his personality and demeanor (although frustrating to fans) fits well with the "Minnesota nice" mantra, and the Twins are starting to become contenders. So what will it take for the Twins to keep him here?
 
Since his move to 1st base (2012) Mauer has played 813 games as a first basemen, which is good for 13th most among 50 qualified players. In that same time he has provided a 14.7 WAR which is good for 10th best:
The "good": he's staying healthier, he's getting on base (6/50 in BA and 5/50 in OBP), and he's become one of the best defensive 1B in the game (#1 in UZR in 2017 among 21 qualified players).
The "bad": he'll be 36 in April of 2019 (only 6 qualified players were 36+ years old in '17), he provides no power as a 1B/DH (42/50 in SLG from 2012-2017), despite being healthier he's still good to miss at least 20 games/year not including the days provides no defensive value as a DH.

I think it's fair to assume that 2017 is the ceiling of what we can expect from Mauer in 2018 and beyond, although he has been lights out so far this season. Looking at salaries for players who are currently 36+ years old, 2017 and 2018 contract agreements, and salaries of other 1B around the league I would be looking for the Twins to give Mauer a 2-3 year deal at $8-$10 million/year not including incentives or player/team options. Again, I believe him signing with the Twins is the most likely scenario.
 
I came up with the $8 - $10 million range from looking at the following data.
 
Yonder Alonso signed with the Indians for $8mil per year. Comparatively to Mauer, he provides a little more power, less OBP, and a lot less defense. He's younger, coming off a career year, and also fits the "launch angle" ideal that so many hitters are trending towards. Ultimately, my opinion is that the pros and cons of both players provide a similar value to a team although the type of value they provide are different. I think that provides a sort of base line going into next offseason.
 
I also looked at players that signed in 2016/2017 offseason who were 36+ years old and although the median salary was 7.75 million a few of those guys are getting paid $13 & $16 million.If I were to include 35+ year olds, which is technically how old Mauer will be at the start of the 2019 season, the median is at $8 million and includes Yadier Molina (a career long Cardinal) getting paid $20 million. Although the median is lower, I think the higher deals give Mauer/Shapiro some room to negotiate an above the median salary. Especially if Mauer performs similarliy to how he did in 2017 and/or is able to hit like he currently is for a majority of 2018.
2. Sign Elsewhere
I don't see this happening, but obviously this is a possibility. Assuming Mauer only has a few more years in the big leagues, he could be looking for a team to win now. Now being 2019 or 2020. Depending on what the Twins FO does in free agency over the next couple years the Twins may or may not be legit world series contenders in 2019 or 2020. I hate to say it but with Greg Bird not being able to stay healthy the Yankees may have an opening at first base that would be a good fit for Mauer. Teams like Houston, Boston, Chicago (NL), Dodgers, Indians and Nationals are also obvious contenders, but currently have a player who is under contract at 1st base.
3. Retire
From what I have read/heard, there hasn't been any rumblings that Mauer is ready to hang them up. Doesn't mean it's not something to consider. Honestly, I almost think Joe would be more apt to retire than he would be to sign somewhere else. Moving somewhere else obviously would mean either moving his family or moving away from his family, which I don't think he would want to do.

It's too early for this.
 
It's too early to be looking at which of the hundreds of minor leaguers currently a part of the Minnesota Twins organization might take the field at Veterans Memorial Stadium in Cedar Rapids this summer.
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/LewisWatkins17-600x400.jpg
Tommy Watkins is moving up to AA Chattanooga to manage in 2018, but Royce Lewis could be back in Cedar Rapids to start the new season (Photo: SD Buhr)
 
It's definitely too early to get excited about the possibility of seeing the most promising group of prospects in Cedar Rapids since, perhaps, the class of 2013 (which included Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Berrios and more) in the first year of the Kernels/Twins affiliation era.
 
Still, since it's been minus-10 degrees or so all day and I've had nothing else to do but watch a bunch of bowl games I generally don't care about at all, I'm going to share my excitement here anyway.
 
Even as the 2017 was winding down, I found myself taking mental inventory of which members of the playoff-bound Kernels might be starting 2018 in Cedar Rapids, as well. Then I started looking at the talent that was on the field for Elizabethton's Appalachian League champion club and projecting a few that were likely to get their first exposure to full-season minor league ball with the Kernels in 2018
 
All of that informal mental note-making left me feeling pretty optimistic that the Twins would send a pretty competitive group to Cedar Rapids this spring.
 
The Kernels have qualified for the Midwest League postseason in each of the five seasons that Cedar Rapids has been affiliated with the Twins and it was fine to feel pretty good about that streak continuing in 2018.
 
But then it happened.
 
A box arrived in the mail over this past weekend and inside was the 2018 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook.(Click here to get your copy.)
 
I should have just glanced through it to make sure my name was spelled correctly everywhere I was given a photo credit, then set it aside for a few weeks until we were at least getting closer to the date when pitchers and catchers report for spring training in Florida (which is the date I unofficially consider the baseball season to begin each year).
 
But knowing how much work the authors - Seth Stohs, Cody Christie and Tom Froemming - put into writing the Handbook and how packed with great content about every Twins minor league affiliate and literally every minor league player currently under contract to the Twins, well, just giving the book a glance through was something I couldn't limit myself to.
 
So I started reading. The authors have some great articles in there, reflecting not only their knowledge of the Twins organization, but their writing skills, as well. I probably should have just read those feature articles and, perhaps, about their selections for Twins Minor League Hitter, Starting Pitcher and Relief Pitcher of the Year Awards. (All three are Kernels alums, by the way.)
 
But that wasn't enough. Not when we're in the middle of a several-day stretch of sub-zero temperatures.
 
I give myself some credit, though. I didn't read EVERY one of the player features in their entirety. It's far too early in the year to do that.
 
No, I only read the features of those players that the authors suggested have some chance of playing ball for the Kernels in 2018.
 
I think there were about 60 of them. That may seem like a lot, given teams are limited to a 25-man roster, but it's really only a little bit more than the 50 or so that you might typically see come through any MWL roster in any given season.
 
Still, not all of them will wear Kernels uniforms this season. They mentioned 28, I think, that have played for the Kernels already that may return. That would be unusual. Some of those will start the season with a promotion to Ft. Myers, some could be injured or traded during spring training and some, unfortunately, could be released by the Twins before the season starts. That's just the harsh reality of professional baseball.
 
But many of the players who WILL be coming to Cedar Rapids, either to start the season or as replacements during the course of the summer, have some very impressive backgrounds and credentials.
 
The Kernels could feature not one, but two first-round draft choices.
 
Shortstop Royce Lewis, who was the first overall pick of the 2017 MLB amateur draft, spent most of the last month of the 2017 season with the Kernels and likely will start the 2018 season in Cedar Rapids as well. He could well be joined by the Twins' 2016 first round pick, outfielder Alex Kirilloff, who had been expected to spend time with the Kernels last year, but missed the entire 2017 season following elbow surgery.
 
Of course, both Lewis and Kirilloff got big signing bonuses as top draft picks, but they aren't likely to be the only million+ dollar bonus babies to put on Kernels uniforms in 2018.
 
While Lewis is likely to see a mid-season promotion if his play develops as we'd expect it to, the Twins have another millionaire shortstop ready to step into his shoes - and position - with the Kernels. Wander Javier got $4 million to sign as an International Free Agent in 2015.
 
A couple of teenaged pitchers could eventually find their ways to Cedar Rapids, though are perhaps less likely to start the season there. The Twins' 2017 second and third round draft picks, Blayne Enlow and Landon Leach, each got bonuses in excess of a million dollars to sign with the Twins, rather than play college ball.
 
While he didn't get it from the Twins, catcher David Banuelos also got a million dollars to sign with the Mariners as their 2017 third round pick. He was acquired by the Twins in December.
 
If Banuelos is assigned to Cedar Rapids, the Kernels could potentially have quite an impressive 1-2 punch behind the plate, since it would not be surprising to see Ben Rortvedt (who signed for $900,000 as the Twins' 2nd round pick in 2016) also return to start the season.
 
In addition to Rortvedt, seven additional likely (or at least potential) 2018 Kernels pulled down signing bonuses of between $400,000 and $900,000, Those include some pretty heralded prospects such as outfielder Akil Baddoo and infielder Jose Miranda, both of which were "Compensation B" round (between 2nd and 3rd rounds) selections by the Twins in 2016.
 
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Rortvedt2017d-600x400.jpg
Twins 2nd round draft pick in 2016 Ben Rortvedt could well begin 2018 behind the plate for Cedar Rapids. (Photo: SD Buhr)
 
Of course, signing bonuses aren't what matter the most once these guys get on the field. No matter what you got paid, what matters is what you do between the lines when you get a chance. Still, when you're looking at young players with limited professional experience to base judgements on, bonus money and draft position are simple means of projecting the level of talent any particular roster might consist of.
 
In addition to those already listed, the 2018 Kernels roster could include, at some point:
Two 4th round picks (pitcher Charlie Barnes - 2017, and third baseman/outfielder Trey Cabbage - 2015, both of whom spent time with the Kernels in 2017) and a 5th rounder (third baseman Andrew Bechtold).
Six-figure International Free Agent signees like pitcher Jose Martinez ($340K in 2013) and catcher Robert Molina ($300K in 2013)
Nine additional players drafted by the Twins in the top 10 rounds of drafts between 2014 and 2017,

That is a lot of potential. And it doesn't even include Edwar Colina, who was the Appalachian League Pitcher of the Year last season.
 
Are you beginning to see why I'm getting excited for the season to start already? I mean, if you're Toby Gardenhire, the recently announced new manager for the Kernels, you have to feel pretty good about the talent level that you're going to have to work with in your first year as a manager in professional baseball, don't you?
 
Of course, the fun thing is that, even with all of these "prospects" on their way to Cedar Rapids, we know that there will be several guys not found on anyone's "prospect lists" that will grab hold of their opportunity to play baseball for a few dollars and show everyone they can play the game every bit as well as the guys getting all the attention... and money.
 
It happens every season and it will happen this year, too.
 
Cedar Rapids hasn't won a Midwest League title since Bengie Molina caught 45 games for the 1994 Kernels. No, that's not as long as the drought the Twins have endured since their 1991 World Series championship, but it's long enough.
 
So pardon me if I get spend a few of these cold January days daring to get excited about Kernels baseball in 2018.
 
If that's wrong, just blame Seth, Cody and Tom. That's what I usually do.
 
(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.)

Greetings from sunny Florida! I'm lucky enough to be in Ft Myers for a week during Spring Training.
 
Today I spent the day mainly on the back fields, watching the minor league prospects. Normally I call these reports Hammond Notes (I must have been under the impression everyone remembers Hammond Organs when I thunk up that one), but Hammond is strictly speaking the major league field here, and it would be clunky to title today's entry CenturyLink Sports Complex Notes. The photo here is of all the dummies watching the major leaguers take batting practice - they don't know what they are missing!
 
I arrived at the crack of dawn, namely 9:30 am, in time to see the players begin their warmup calisthenics. It being the day of a major league game, CenturyLink Sports Complex was charging $10 for parking. Note to anyone intending to follow a plan like mine: in-and-out privileges are not included when you pay to park, and there is no food service outside the main ballpark so bring a lunch (there is a water fountain by the bathroom at the center of the back fields) or else prepare to pay twice for parking - plus it's hard driving out when they're letting everyone else in. Tomorrow and Thursday are away games, so I can get in for free unless I am misremembering protocol.
 

 
The day's drills were enjoyable to watch, and not especially stressful looking for the players either. Pitchers worked on fielding comebackers on Field 5. While nobody embarrassed himself, and there were a few good snags of the balls coming out of the repurposed pitching machine, I didn't spot any budding shortstops in the group either. Here's Lewis Thorpe giving it a try - notice how he keeps the meat hand (AKA moneymaker) safely out of the way. Notice also my skillful use of the camera's autofocus, bringing into crisp view the mesh of the decorative yet functional chain link fence.
 

 
Later, on Field 3, a group of players practiced specialized situations, such as the pitcher covering third on an extra-base hit by a lefthanded pull-hitter against an extreme shift (seriously). It seemed to me there was a lot of dead time in this, where the coach in charge would stop to talk to a small group of players, and the others, far out of earshot, would just be standing around. Maybe this is optimal - I'm not a coach or anything. During this idle time, I spotted catchers Dan Rohlfing, Karim Kevin**** Garcia, and one I wasn't able to deduce even using my vast sleuthing skills, practicing the art of tossing a baseball into the air and catching it in the mesh of their mask. I am confident this important skill will be the deciding factor in Game 7 of the World Series, some year very soon. It's the new Framing.
 

 
Closer to game time, I ventured again to the front of the CenturyLink Sports Complex and met up briefly with ChiTownTwinsFan, who was attending the major league game with family. We'll share a game or three later this week with others who are arriving.
 
After a spartan lunch (which, did I mention, I thought to bring) and a nap resting my eyes while lying down on the metal bleachers in the shade for 5 minutes, 10 minutes tops, I watched the two games against Tampa Bay Rays prospects, which began around 1 pm. Nominal AAA and AA squads were represented, and in the AAA game both teams used 40-man pitchers as their starters. I should tell you at the outset that I switched attention between the two games and did not keep an actual scoresheet for either one, and moreover I have no idea who "won" either contest - I merely took notes of what I thought to be interesting.
 
Matt Belisle went a couple of innings for the Twins and pitched pretty well.
 

 
He was aided by a very fine shoestring catch by Zach Granite in center on the first pitch. Pro tip: call him Granny, like some of his teammates and/or coaches do. Niko Goodrum, playing shortstop, also contributed a nice play in the first, to his right on a ball just out of third baseman's reach - I wrote the latter's name down as Ganache but I can't locate such a player now at my computer. Later on in the AAA game, there was a very nice play by Engelb Vielma at second base, coming in on the ball and making it look easy, to get the batter by a step. All in all, the defense looked good, every time my attention was focused on Field 3.
 
Two-year major-league veteran Matt Andriese of the Rays didn't fare as well. As I said, I didn't keep a scoresheet, but my impression was that he gave up lots of base hits and plenty of runs. In the first, Goodrum doubled to right field (in this game he was making good contact each time I looked), Dan Palka followed with a two-strike opposite field RBI single to left that I overheard someone on the bench call a "nice piece of hitting", and then Mitch Garver followed with a homer to left center.
 

 
On Field 4, the Twins also had a major league reliever serve as starter. I didn't see a lot of Kintzler's work, but a comment from a fellow fan led me to think he wasn't especially effective. I guess we'll all form our own opinions from that tidbit, according to our individual prejudices.
 
Edgar Corcino botched a flyball in left field, and someone brought him a pair of sunglasses in time for the next pitch - oops, Kangaroo Kourt fine, shall we say? Fernando Romero pitched next, and I thought he got cuffed about quite a bit. However toward the end of his first inning he started throwing heat more visibly, and the results improved. But then, he dropped a comebacker to the mound. (I don't recall whether he was in the group practicing that in the morning.) They ended the inning early after that, which sometimes is the custom on the minor league fields, and I thought that meant he was done for the day, but he pitched the next inning, and again was effective. Maybe the Rays had batted around, and the ground rules say that's enough - hey, let the other kids have a turn, willya?
 
Back on Field 3, I saw Vielma have a rough day at the plate, which of course has been the question mark about him as a high-end prospect we want him to become. He's one of the guys I wanted to scrutinze at the plate on this visit, and I am encouraged compared to my expectations that he might swing like Pedro Florimon. No, he "has a notion up there" at the plate - he's not clueless. But, he's also a bit overmatched, particularly on pitches in the upper half of the strike zone, as he tends to swing right through them with disturbing frequency, at least on this day. Being unable to hit certain strikes would not be a good thing in the majors. (He'll also chase, on pitches higher than that, but that seems more correctable.) At least, I didn't see Buxton's Syndrome, namely being unable to recognize off-speed pitches in the dirt, so that's a mild positive. I hope his batting coach can teach him to figure out a few things this year - maybe this ugly photo will help.
 

 
Turning back to the AA game, Randy Rosario showed a good fastball but only so-so control.
 

 
John Curtiss, by contrast, looked very much in control of his good fastball, and seems poised to build at AA upon his successful 2016.
 

 
Minor league free agent utility player (OF, 3B) Tom Belza really got ahold of a pitch late in the game for a 3-run jack. He's not a guy with stellar power numbers in the past, but if he's ready to put things together maybe he can get his cup of coffee or perhaps even a little more - he's someone I'll keep an eye on just for fun, now that he has forced me to pay attention to him. On the other hand, shortly after his homer, he got spun around fielding a hot smash at third base, costing him just enough time to fail to retire the batter, so my snap assessment is he'll remain a longshot.
 
In the AAA game, relief prospect Trevor Hildenberger made easy work of the Rays batters in the final inning. He has what looks like nasty stuff from a variety of angles.
 
In the AA game (are you getting whiplash yet? that's my intention, as it mimics the fun of watching two games on adjacent fields), Nick Gordon got a ground rule* double to left, followed by a long double to center by recent minor league signing Josh Romanski - another promising event today for a long-shot athlete in his prime. You Never Know. Here's Gordon, probably not on the pitch he doubled on.
 

 
An interesting sidelight, at least for me: at the end of his inning of work, Rays prospect pitcher Jairo Munoz came off the field cursing, presumably at himself for the hits against him. Longtime Rays coach R.C. Lichtenstein, who was monitoring the game outside the fence, made a beeline toward the entrance to the dugout. Being a nosy type of person, I trailed him and listened in. He didn't castigate the pitcher for the outburst and instead gave him a pep talk, focusing on some good things that happened on the mound and what he might do differently. I had noticed this coach the last time I was in Ft Myers - he seems like a really good asset to the team, although of course I have little insight into what truly separates one coach from another.
 
Speaking of coaches, Rick ("Brother of David") Eckstein was there in a Twins uniform. I had not noticed the news of his being added. If he were not in uniform, you would never guess he was anything but "just some guy". I bet he gets that a lot. **
 
Anyway, Nick Burdi finished up the AA game, and while I didn't see any real magic, he had a good inning. In the bottom of that inning, Levi Michael got hit in the ribs by a pitch, and he yelped as soon as the ball touched him. Me, it takes several seconds before I know whether I'm hurt. But he was OK, at least to the extent of being able to run the bases normally.
 
WIth the AA game completed, I turned back for the finish of the AAA game. Kyle Winkler closed out the game for the Rays, and though he's a little long in the tooth (26) for a prospect, I was fooled into thinking he might be something better, because he mowed down Palka and then ended the game by making Garver fail to check his swing.
 
Here is a Rays trainer inflicting rotator-cuff damage on a prospect who missed curfew. When will the hazing of rookies cease? The padded table looked comfy, though, and I considered asking whether he accepted walk-ins for theraputic massage.
 

 
After the game, I watched Granite Granny stop to sign an autograph for possibly the politest kid I ever met. And then I saw the Rays' Andrew Velazquez sign for a Rays fan, causing me to wonder if he is a big-time prospect. Um, nope, at least not according to Sickels - guess the kid just had a personal rooting interest.
 
And with that, I'm off to sample the culinary delicacies that Ft Myers is famous for. Wait, what? Is that a thing?***
 
*I know that a ball that bounces over the fence isn't technically part of the ground rules, it's just a baseball rule. It's what we call it, OK?
 
** His brother was a major league veteran - a fringe star even - and like his brother, Rick is way way short.
 
*** Pinchers Crab Shack turned out to have pretty good grouper.
 
**** H/T to Seth Stohs for the correction

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
---
 
The first segment of this series was dedicated to cleaning up the Twins' existing 40-man roster, assuming that the new management will do the right thing and go for a full rebuild. This second segment, further adjusts the roster by adding players to protect from the draft, and maybe subtracting some of the players on the derived roster. As a bonus, I will be listing additional Twins minor leaguers who do not need to be protected for the Rule 5 draft, but might merit consideration for a spot on the roster. This list will give a good overview of the high level minor league talent available currently in the Twins' organization. I will not proposed to add anyone who does not need to be added on the 40-man roster right now, eg. Steven Gonsalves, Jake Reed etc, but instead, the Twins should invite them as non-roster players to the 2017 Spring Training. If they win a job there, they should merit a roster spot, but the Twins would need much roster flexibility this off-season.
 
Here is the 24 man roster, after the clean up. Noted that if Perkins is moved to the 60-day disabled list, the roster would stand at 23, allowing up to 17 openings:
 
Jose Berrios 5/27/1994 (RHSP)
Byron Buxton 12/18/1993 (CF)
Juan Centeno 11/16/1989 ©
J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990 (RHRP)
Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990 (RHRP)
Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 (RHSP)
Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989 (IF)
Max Kepler 2/10/1993 (RF)
Yorman Landa 6/11/1994 (RHRP)
Pat Light 3/29/1991 (RHRP)
Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 (1B/DH)
Trevor May 9/23/1989 (RHSP)
Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993 (LHSP)
Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991 (LHRP)
John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991 ©
Byungho Park 7/10/1986 (1B/DH)
Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 (LHRP) (*)
Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993 (SS)
Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990 (LHRP)
Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991 (LF)
Randy Rosario 5/18/1994 (LHRP)
Miguel Sano 5/11/1993 (3B)
Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990 (1B/DH)
Adam Walker 10/18/1991 (OF/DH)
 
Clearly the weakest lings on the roster are the two borderline age-wise position players, Catcher Juan Centeno, and utility infielder Eduardo Escobar. In addition, Pat Light is the weakest relief pitcher, so borderline players would be compared to these three because they will be fighting for their spots.
 
Here are the Rule 5 Draft-eligible Position players, by position:
 
Catchers:
 
Kevin Garcia, 9/17/1992, A/A+, 2016: .249/.302/.323, career: .252/.321/.315
Mitch Garver, 1/1/1991, AAA/AA, 2016: .270/.342/.422, career: .267/.359/.406 (*)
Rainis Silva, 3/20/1996 A, 2016: .230/.297/.254, career: .238/.295/.293
Stuart Turner, 12/27/1991, AA, 2016: .239/.322/.363, career: .241/.325/.352
 
Clearly Mitch Garver should be on the roster, since he will be fighting for a starting job in 2017. Rainis Silva's glove is the best in the organization at the Catcher position right now, but his bat stinks, and unless that improves (and there is a lot of time, he just turned 20,) there is no risk of losing him. I do not see Kevin Garcia being selected. Whether adding Stuart Turner on the roster, is a toss-up. His bat does not play in the majors, but his glove might. Which brings the question: who should be on the roster, Turner or Centeno? I think that Centeno's lefty bat that was not unrespectable in the majors wins here, but it is a close call. It might be an academic question because the Twins are in dire need of a young good catcher, and if they obtain him this off-season will take the spot now reserved for Centeno.
 
Additions: Garver
 
Infielders:
 
Niko Goodrum, 2/28/1992, A+/AA, 2016: .275/.352/.464, career: .247/.339/.368
Levi Michael 2/9/1991, AA, 2016: .215/.293/.291, career: .250/.341/.343
Amaurys Minier, 1/20/1996, RK+, 2016: .222/.318/.449, career: .233/.321/.422
Rafael Valera, 8/25/1994, A, 2016: .261/.366/.409, career: .260/.380/.333
Engelb Vielma, 6/22/1994, A+/AA, 2016: .265/.344/.310, career: .264/.327/.309
Ryan Walker, 3/26/1992, A+/AA, 2016: .271/.347/.345, career: .262/.324/.321
 
Levi Michael had a terrible season after two strong ones, and I am not sure whether he is even in the Twins' plans right now that the administration that picked him in the first round is extinct. I cannot see Valera or Walker get selected, I think that Niko's Goodrum's career year and positional versatility (can play both positions on the left side of the infield, and can sub for both Sano and Polanco, plus Centerfield) as well as Engelb Vielma's standout glove and improved to respectability bat, will entice teams and could help the Twins in the future. As a matter of fact, either would be better as a utility player for the 2017 Twins than Eduardo Escobar. Both in, Escobar traded/non-tendered. The last player in this list is a wild card. Amaurys Minier has had superstar potential but been plagued by injuries and inconsistencies. Has not played above Elizabethton, but I am so afraid that someone could pull a Johan Santana on the Twins and pick him. Got to protect him for at least another year.
 
Additions: Goodrum, Minier, Vielma
Subtractions: Escobar
 
Outfielders:
 
Edgar Corcino 6/7/1992, AA/A+ 2016: .273/.337/.420, career: .245/.316/.368
JJ Fernandez, 3/30/1994, A, 2016: .225/.293/.363, career: .239/.293/.363
Zach Granite, 9/17/1992, AA, 2016: .295/.347/.382 (56/70 SB), career: .282/.349/.354 (*)
Max Murphy, 11/17/1992, A/A+, 2016: .236/.289/.358, career: .252/.329/.411
Travis Harrison, 10/17/1992, AA, 2016: .230/.338/.339, career: .254/.360/.380
Daniel Palka, 10/28/1991, AA/AAA, 2016: .254/.327/.521, career: .268/.346/.509 (*)
 
I think that what I wrote previously regardless Levi Michael, applies to Travis Harrison as well. This might be his last chance in the Twins' organization. Fernandez and Murphy are not close to being MLB-ready or selected in the draft. Corcino is a better player than both, but still ways away. This leaves the player whom the Twins named minor league player of the year, Zach Granite, and the player they should had named, Daniel Palka. They both should be protected and added on the 40-man roster. Palka will fight (or push back to second base) Eduardo Rosario for a corner outfielder job and Zach Granite and his 56 stolen bases might make the best 4th outfielder, pinch runner combination the Twins have had for years.
 
Additions: Granite, Palka
 
Notable non-Rule 5 Draft-eligible at A+ and above position players:
 
Nick Gordon (SS) 10/24/1995, A+, 2016: .291/.335/.386, career: .285/.335/.371
LaMonte Wade (OF) 1/1/1994, A/A+, 2016: .293/.402/.438, career: .297/.409/.459
 
Both should be invited to the 2017 Spring Training and given the ability to win an MLB job, but they should not be added on the roster unless they need to.
 
Rule 5 Draft-eligible Pitchers:
 
Starters:
 
Ryan Eades ®, 12/15/1991, AA, 2016: 4.61 ERA, 1.376 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 career: 4.33 ERA, 1.379 WHIP, 6.7 K/9
Felix Jorge.® 1/2/1994, A+/AA, 2016: 2.69 ERA, 1.088 WHIP, 5.9 K/9 career: 3.17 ERA, 1.164 WHIP, 7.4 K/9
Aaron Slegers, ® 9/4/1992, AA, 2016: 3.41 ERA, 1.259 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 career: 3.54 ERA, 1.178 WHIP, 6.5 K/9
Fernando Romero, ® 12/24/1994, A/A+, 2016: 2.09 ERA, 0.897 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 career: 2.37 ERA, 1.032 WHIP, 8.8 K/9
Lewis Thorpe, (L), 11/23/1995. lost 2015 and 2016 with Tommy John surgery & other ailments. 2012-2014: 2.96 ERA, 1.176 WHIP, 11.2 K/9
Jason Wheeler (L), 10/27/1990, AAA/AA, 2016: 3.30 ERA, 1.163 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 career: 3.66 ERA, 1.325 WHIP, 6.4 K/9
 
Ryan Eades had a below average season as a starter and I expect him to make the transition to the pen this season, which will be his best opportunity to get to the majors. Felix Jorge and Fernando Romero are just too good not to add. Both, especially Romero, have outside chances of wining a position in the Twins' rotation this spring. They are both no-brainer additions. Lewis Thorpe was a phenomenal prospect who lost 2 seasons in a row. Is he back? Only the Twins know. I just do not see a chance for anyone to select him, but if the Twins think there is, I can see him add him on the roster. I won't. Slegers is an intriguing possibility: He has been above average his career with above average stuff, but has shown nothing eye opening, in both raw stuff and results. Very intriguing conversion to a reliever who might get a mid to high 90s fastball from this frame. Should the Twins add him on the roster and do it? In the expense of Pat Light or any of the other relievers who need protection? I don't think so. Regardless whether he is selected or not, he should be in a bullpen next season. This leaves us to Jason Wheeler whom the Twins protected in 2015, unprotected in 2016, and snubbed him for a call up, in a year he was pitching well in both AA and AAA, for the likes of Anrew Albers. Terrible decision, but I hope that the change in the administration does the right thing and protects him, if for not other reason, because he is lefty and successful and he is second, after Adalberto Mejia, in the Twins LHSP depth chart. This might change during the off-season if the Twins acquire a LHSP or two better than Mejia, and they should target that. But until then, Wheeler is in, at least for 2017 to show what he can do.
 
Additions: Jorge, Romero, Wheeler
 
Relievers:
 
Luke Bard ® 11/13/1990, A+/AA, 2016: 3.74 ERA, 1.400 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 career: 3.23 ERA, 1.310 WHIP, 7.9 K/9
DJ Baxendale ®, 12/8/1990, As a RP only: AAA 2016: 1.29 ERA, 1.029 WHIP, 10.3 K/9
Omar Bencomo ® 2/10/1989, AA/AAA, 2016: 3.74 ERA, 1.352 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, career: 3.77 ERA, 1.271 WHIP, 6.7 K/9
Cameron Booser (L), 5/4/1992, A/A+, 2016: 8.53 ERA, 2.013 WHIP, 12.1 K/9, career: 4.32 ERA, 1.571 WHIP, 12.1 K/9
Alan Busenitz ® 8/22/1990, AA/AAA, 2016: 3.54 ERA, 1.262 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 career: 3.55 ERA, 1.320 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 (might protect him for political reasons - he came in the Meyer/Nolasco trade, but there are better players)
C.K. Irby, ®, 5/6/1992, A, 2016: 2.42 ERA, 1.119 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 career: 3.56 ERA, 1.264 WHIP, 11.5 K/9
Zack Jones ®, 12/4/1990, AA/AAA, 2016: 3.47 ERA, 1.294 WHIP, 12.4 K/9 career: 2.97 ERA, 1.218 WHIP, 12.7 K/9
Brandon Peterson, ®, 9/23/1991, A+/AA, 2016: 3.30 ERA, 1.150 WHIP, 11.2 K/9 career: 2.41 ERA, 1.109 WHIP, 12.1 K/9
Brian Gilbert, ®, 8/9/1992, A+, 2016: 5.53 ERA, 2.024 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, career: 3.66 ERA, 1.439 WHIP, 6.6 K/9
Williams Ramirez, ®, 8/8/1992, A, 2016: 2.62 ERA, 1.055 WHIP, 10.8 K/9, career: 1.97 ERA, 1.038 WHIP, 10.1 K/9
Todd Van Steensel ®, 1/14/1991, A+/AA, 2016: 3.88 ERA, 1.324 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, career: 3.42 ERA, 1.291 WHIP, 9.7 K/9
 
This is a long list of 11 relievers, with only one of them (Booser) a lefty. Booser had a disappointing season in both High A and A and will not be selected. The same is true for Brian Gilbert. Bencomo is a last option type of player, and will not be selected. Van Steensel's season was not strong enough to get consideration. C.K. Irby's was, however it was not at a high enough level. The same for Williams Ramirez, but watch out if these two repeat their results in high A and/or AA in 2017. Which brings us to Luke Bard, the Twins' former 1st round pick, who is about to turn 26, and had an average season, but has not been the same after losing 2014 recovering from shoulder surgery. I think that this will be his last chance to prove that he belongs in the prospect conversation and I will not be surprised if it is not in the Twins' organization. Alan Busenitz is an interesting case. He pitched in AA and AAA with average results, that reflect the rest of his minor league career, but the Twins might protect him for political reasons, since he was acquired in the Alex Meyer, Ricky Nolasco trade that also brought Hector Santiago to the Twins. Maybe the new administration will let the past go and would not protect him. I wouldn't. However, I would protect the most successful reliever in the Twins' minor league system, DJ Baxendale, who after transitioning to that role for Rochester upon his promotion from Chatanooga excelled. This leaves us two pitchers who might depart via the draft, and one last off-season: Zach Jones and Brandon Peterson. Got to add Pat Light to the conversation and it is two out of three. I'd picke Jones and Light, risking Peterson's departure, mainly because he has played in more junior levels (only 16 games in AA) and might deemed less ready. But it is a risk.
 
Additions: Baxendale, Jones.
 
Notable non-Rule 5 Draft-eligible at A+ and above:
 
Starters:
 
Stephen Gonsalves (L) 7/8/1994 A+/AA, 2016: 2.06 ERA, 1.021 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 career: 2.13 ERA, 1.072 WHIP, 9.7 K/9
Tyler Jay (L) 4/19/1994 A+/AA, 2016: 3.33 ERA, 1.231 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 career: 3.44 ERA, 1.265 WHIP, 8.7 K/9
Kohl Stewart ®, 10/7/1994, A+/AA, 2016: 2.88 ERA, 1.343 WHIP, 5.7 K/9 career: 2.84 ERA, 1.284 WHIP, 5.9 K/9
 
Relievers:
 
Nick Burdi ®, 1/19/1993, AA, 2016: shut down after 3 games, career: 3.72 ERA, 1.322 WHIP, 12.6 K/9
Trevor Hildenberger ®, 12/15/1990, AA/A+, 2016: 0.75 ERA, 0.792 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 career: 1.47 ERA, 0.823 WHIP, 10.5 K/9
Jake Reed ®, 9/29/1992, AAA/AA, 2016: 3.57 ERA, 1.175 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 career: 3.47 ERA, 1.130 WHIP, 8.8 K/9
Michael Theophanopoulos (L), 8/5/1992, A/A+, 2016: 2.20 ERA, 1.163 WHIP, 11.6 K/9 career: 3.29 ERA, 1.351 WHIP, 10.5 K/9
 
As with the position players, all of the above, in addition to several Rule 5-eligible players who will remain with the Twins but not added to the roster, and hopefully several new young good players should be invited to the Twins 2017 Spring Training.
 
This leaves the modified Twins 40-man roster with 34 (33 (*) if Perkins is on the 60-day DL) spots and 6 (or 7) openings, which are enough for the Twins to be flexible in targeting acquisitions in trades and potentially shopping the Rule 5 draft and the waiver wire (and a reminder that they have the right of first refusal, because of the worst record in the majors, for both.) Here is the modified roster:
 
DJ Baxendale 12/8/1990 (RHRP)
Jose Berrios 5/27/1994 (RHSP)
Byron Buxton 12/18/1993 (CF)
Juan Centeno 11/16/1989 ©
J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990 (RHRP)
Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990 (RHRP)
Mitch Garver, 1/1/1991 ©
Zach Granite, 9/17/1992 (OF)
Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 (RHSP)
Zack Jones 12/4/1990 (RHRP)
Felix Jorge 1/2/1994 (RHSP)
Niko Goodrum, 2/28/1992 (SS/3B/CF)
Max Kepler 2/10/1993 (RF)
Yorman Landa 6/11/1994 (RHRP)
Pat Light 3/29/1991 (RHRP)
Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 (1B/DH)
Trevor May 9/23/1989 (RHSP)
Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993 (LHSP)
Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991 (LHRP)
Amaurys Minier, 1/20/1996 (1B/OF)
John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991 ©
Daniel Palka, 10/28/1991 (OF)
Byungho Park 7/10/1986 (1B/DH)
Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 (LHRP) (*)
Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993 (SS)
Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990 (LHRP)
Fernando Romero 12/24/1994(RHSP)
Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991 (LF)
Randy Rosario 5/18/1994 (LHRP)
Miguel Sano 5/11/1993 (3B)
Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990 (1B/DH)
Engelb Vielma, 6/22/1994 (SS)
Adam Walker 10/18/1991 (OF/DH)
Jason Wheeler 10/27/1990 (LHSP)
 
 
Next installment will be a critical view of the roster, assessing weaknesses and looking for potential positions that the Twins should target this off-season.

The Cedar Rapids Kernels and the city of Cedar Rapids hosted this year's Midwest League All-Star Game festivities and all four Kernels players on the Western Division roster played big roles before the festivities concluded.
 
The Eastern Division stars notched a come-from-behind 11-10 victory in what could only be described as an entertaining ballgame.
 
Kernels pitcher Sam Clay got the start for the West stars and notched a 1-2-3 inning in the first inning, completing it with a strikeout.
 
Cedar Rapids' second baseman Luis Arraez led off the bottom of the second with a single and team mate LaMonte Wade reached on a hit-by-pitch to start the home half of the first. Both players came around to score, giving the West the first two runs of the game.
 
Kernels catcher AJ Murray, who participated in the pregame Home Run Derby, entered the game about halfway through the contest and went to the opposite field for a two-run blast that put his team up 10-7 in the bottom of the seventh inning.
 
That's probably all you need to know about the game itself, but I'll add a number of pictures from the festivities on Monday and Tuesday.
 
A lot of work goes into putting on one of these events and big time kudos go out to the entire Kernels staff (augmented with staff from the Northwoods League's Waterloo Bucks front office) for putting on a first class show.
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/MWL-Mascots900-600x400.jpg
More than half of the Midwest League's team mascots made the trip to Cedar Rapids. My daughter commented afterwards, "It was like Mr Shucks had a party and got to invite all his friends."

http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/KernelsAutoASG-600x400.jpg
Kernels All-Stars Luis Arraez, LaMonte Wade and AJ Murray at the autograph table before the ASG on Tuesday

http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/ManagersMtgASG-600x400.jpg
As the manager of the Western Division Champions from a year ago, Kernels manager Jake Mauer was at the helm for the Western Division All-Stars

http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/ClayASG-600x400.jpg
Kernels pitcher Sam Clay worked a perfect first inning for the West squad.

http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/ArraezASG-600x400.jpg
Luis Arraez had a pair of hits for the West squad. Here he's fist-bumped by Kernels coach Brian Dinkelman.

http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/WadeASG-600x400.jpg
LaMonte Wade had one hit in two at bats and was hit by a pitch.

http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/MurrayASG2-600x400.jpg
AJ Murray strokes a 2-run home run for the West stars in the 7th inning.


http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/20160621_223422-600x450.jpg
AJ Murray (left) and Sam Clay (11) take in the postgame fireworks with the rest of the crowd.

(all photos: SD Buhr)
 
(This article was posted originally at Knuckleballsblog.com)

It was a quiet Wednesday night at the downtown Cowboy Jack's. Dispersed throughout the bar were a few groups of regulars, and the low hum of country music was only occasionally disrupted by roars from the Twins game occurring down the street. In one particular dim-lit corner sat Seth Stohs and Nick Nelson. Seth plunged a straw into his vodka cranberry as Nick leaned back, nursing his frosted pint of Miller Lite. The two had now sat there for three hours, but neither had spoken a word.
 
"Well, what are we going to do? We can't just let Patrick Reusse run roughshod over our beloved team like this."
 
Nick stared back at his old friend and contemplated the question in silence. He was frozen both by the complexity of the situation and by the fear that a bar patron might recognize him from his ESPN-affiliated glory days.
 
"I really don't know, Seth. Nick's Twins Daily is growing, but we don't even come close to matching the readership of the Star Tribune."
 
"TWINS Daily, Nick. You really need to get over that. It's hubris like this that will prevent us from ever challenging Reusse's reign."
 
Just as Nick was about to angrily retort, a blinding white light came in from the doorway, catching the two bloggers off-guard. Nick and Seth both shielded their eyes, unable to fully behold the magnificence before them. Silhouetted by the white light was a tall, broad-shouldered, bearded man riding a mechanical bull. The mysterious figure adjusted his glasses and wiped a trail of duck sauce from his chin. Rubbing their eyes in recovery from the initial flash, Nick and Seth slowly realized who stood before them. It was none other than legendary Twins blogger Aaron Gleeman.
 
"G-Gleeman," stammered Nick. "You came!"
 
"Yes, child. I finished brunch early today."
 
"But you never leave Stella's!"
 
"Drastic times call for drastic measures. Tell me, have you and Seth come up with any solutions yet?"
 
Nick and Seth both looked at their feet in an attempt to avoid the piercing glare of the Gleeman. Three hours of meeting and they still had nothing.
 
"No, we haven't," replied Seth, with a hint of shame. "Did you bring the Geek? We could really use his wise insights right now."
 
Gleeman stroked his stubbly beard, relishing the odors of Chinese cuisine that it still contained. "I did not, but tell me," he inquired. "All of our problems stem from Patrick Reusse, no?"
 
"Yeah!" exclaimed Nick. "He ignored the contributions of J.J. Hardy!"
 
"Exactly!" shouted Seth. "He tossed the entire farm system under the bus!"
 
"Then it's simple," uttered Gleeman, with a maniacally twisted grin on his face. "We kill the Pat-man."

Sometimes you're forced to admit that your best ideas stem from another person's brainchild. It turns out that this is exactly the case when it comes to a Princess Bride parody I wrote up yesterday after giving some thought to why I've been seeing a recurring joke about Paul Molitor being the Man in Black on Twins Daily game threads. I had absolutely no idea why or how the nickname started, but I loved the way it tied right in with my previous plans to someday write something about the Twins storming the castle (meaning the Royal's Kauffman Stadium), so I went ahead with the idea.
 
It turns out that SampleSizeOfOne, a regular on Twins Daily, started it all a few days ago with some reference to The Princess Bride and the Twins, and apparently my interpretation is actually not that far off base. So if you like it, don't give me all the credit since I owe my story in part to him, and if you dislike it...well, please don't lay all the blame on me. That just wouldn't be fair.
 
http://theblogdaysofsummer.weebly.com/uploads/5/3/9/7/53971721/2636985_orig.jpg
 
Remember last offseason? There's a little-known saga that could use some publicity concerning a few of the top people for the Twins. It all started one torpid day back in September when Jim Pohlad, Terry Ryan, and Ron Gardenhire were chatting over a tequila after a long day of discussing the merits of the current roster.
 
"We need a new manager," Jim remarked lazily. "This just isn't working out anymore. You know of a good replacement, don't you, Gardy?"
 
Gardy stared down at his hands and mumbled gloomily. After prodding him a bit further, Jim decided that he was too far in the tank to respond legitimately and instructed Terry to jog his memory a bit when he came around. The next day Terry told Ron that if he wanted to stay in the Twins organization he'd have to step down, but he promised that he would get him a position in the front office where he could have a say in who would inherit the managerial office. Gardy agreed to step down, but needless to say, he was still pretty miffed about losing the job and refused to accept the position in the front office. Terry reported back to Jim, feeling bad since he'd lost Gardy for good.
 
"I'm sorry, Jim. I didn't mean to jog him so hard..." and then he stopped and started in surprise and consternation. Jim was staring intently at a framed picture of Carl Pohlad that hung on the wall of his living room, and suddenly he started to murmur something in almost unintelligible monotones.
 
"Father, I have failed you for four years. Now our misery can end. Somewhere, somewhere close by, is a man who can help us. But we just can't find him."
 
It turns out that Jim underestimated Terry's sleuthing abilities. Without any aid from Jim besides the money to fulfill the contract, Terry picked a former Twins player and coach who had returned to Minnesota for the 2014 season. Obviously the man, often referred to as Molly but better known to members of the front office as the Man in Black, was pretty smart if he was able to foresee his future role as manager of the Minnesota Twins a year in advance, so Terry was pretty confident that it would work out alright.
 
However, spring returned and the regular season was once again officially underway. Much to Terry's surprise and consternation, the Twins got off to a horrible start. In fact, even the most optimistic of die-hard Twins fans gave up the season as lost after just one week of ball and a record of 1-6. Nobody in their wildest dreams could imagine ending the season with more than 72 wins; in fact, it wouldn't surprise them at all if they finished closer to 62.
 
So no one took notice when Terry summoned Jim to his office and, with arms stretched across his desk and his head dropped dramatically into his hands, he muttered something that sounded to the fly on the wall like, "It didn't work."
 
Jim leaned against the closed door in his best attempt to look like a nonchalant loiterer. Dangling from his long, thin fingers was an A. Flores 1975 Serie Privada Capa Habano SP52, which was as characterizing a trait of him in recent years as his wife's Baccarat Les Larmes Sacrées de Thebes. But that has nothing to do with our present story. Opening his mouth and letting out a stream of smoky sweetness, he murmured, more to himself than anybody else, "It just is not fair."
 
The minutes passed in somewhat strained but companionable silence, with the only interruption being a heavy sigh emitting from Terry's lungs when Jim thoughtlessly tapped his ashes onto the spotlessly clean carpet of his study. Finally Jim broke the tranquility by saying in a voice that was intended to betoken determination, "Well, the Pohlads have never taken defeat easily. Come along, Terry."
 
With a great effort, Terry raised his head and stared listlessly at Jim. "What's up? Have you any money?"
 
Jim shook his head at Terry's ignorance and assured him that they weren't going to attack the free agent market or negotiate a trade of any kind.
 
"As expected," Terry muttered under his breath.
 
"What's that?" questioned Jim sharply, but Terry waved it off and refused to answer. "Well," Jim proceeded, "I do have a little money; I hope it's enough to buy a miracle...that's all. Call the Man in Black."
 
Terry Ryan obeyed, meanwhile planning that if any moves would be taken on Jim's part to remove the Man in Black from his role as manager, he would have to start a revolution in the front office.
 
They met as planned at a quiet, somewhat disreputable bar that had a backroom where the owner stayed, refusing to admit anybody under any conditions. Witnesses say that they disregarded all warnings from the bartender and knocked loudly on the door. From within the owner was heard to shout, "Go away."
 
However, Terry Ryan, not to be put down, knocked even louder, enough to even attract the attention of a bouncer who strolled over to see if his services were required. The door opened a crack and the owner, irritated, said, "What? What??"
 
Terry Ryan, pleased with his success thus far, responded, "Are you the Miracle Max who worked for the Royals all those years?"
 
Miracle Max (I'll just say it - it's no mystery) grunted, "The stinking Royals fired me. And thank you so much for bringing up such a painful subject. While you're at it, why don't you give me a nice paper cut and pour lemon juice on it? We're closed," and banged the door shut in their faces.
 
However, Terry Ryan refused to be abashed and swatted it back open again before he had time to lock it. Miracle Max roared, "Beat it, or I'll call the brute squad!"
 
"I'm on the brute squad," said Jim, glad to be able to finally chip in with his own piece. He reached down and tapped his wallet impressively. Miracle Max sized him up and then muttered, "You are the brute squad."
 
Terry Ryan decided to stop beating around the bush and got directly to the point. It was getting late and he was beginning to feel just a little thirsty, and he wanted to get the job done so he could quench that growing thirst before it got to be unbearable.
 
"We need a miracle. It's very important," he told Miracle Max, looking him straight in the eye, a trick he'd learned in his early scouting years. Max seemed to relent a little but stubbornly stuck to his point.
 
"Look, I'm retired. And besides, why would you want someone the stinking Royals fired? I might create even worse problems for the Twins."
 
By this time Terry Ryan was almost frustrated, and he glanced up at the ceiling in an attempt to calm his nerves and collect his thoughts. "How could it get any worse?" he asked patiently. "This here gentleman has some questions for you," indicating the Man in Black with a wave of his hand.
 
"He does, huh? I guess I can listen. Apparently I'm doing that anyway. Come on in."
 
Miracle Max opened the door a little wider to admit them, and they stepped across the threshold. Nobody knows what went on during the long hours that they spent in there. Of course there are rumors, but not a single one relates to another, so I'll leave most of them out of our story. However, there are a few that deserve honorable mentions: some people swear that there was talk of noble deeds, true love, MLT sandwiches with nice lean mutton and ripe tomatoes, promises of humiliations galore, and miracle pills. Naturally we'll reject the finale as wholly impossible, but the others...well....
 
However, as that's likely just a bunch of hogwash, I'll skip ahead to what's reported of when they came back out. Unfortunately by that time everyone besides those four were pretty stewed, but when the door finally opened, it seems that Miracle Max had unearthed a wife named Valerie, and the two of them were being thanked profusely by Terry Ryan. Valerie seemed especially fond of them and called out, "Bye-bye, boys!" and Max said, "Have fun storming the castle!" to which his wife questioned, "Do you think it'll work?" and he responded, "It would take a miracle."
 
Then history comes into play. We hosted Kansas City and won our first series of the year. It turns out that Miracle Max, being somewhat intoxicated himself, must have been mistaken when he instructed them to have fun storming the castle since it wasn't until later in April that we went to Kauffman Stadium, but then again, the mistake could be due to the fact that all the witnesses were as drunk as broiled hoot owls. But no matter. Whatever went on in that room in the back of the bar was truly a miracle, and we've done just marvelous since then. I won't question authority when I recognize it.
 
---
Read full entry here:
Storming the Castle

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
----
 
Today is the seventh installment in the top 40 Twins' Off-season prospects countdown, and the descriptions of the player and rationalization of their rankings continue to a bit more detailed. You can find all installments here in reverse chronological order. Previous rankings: 36-40, 31-35 , 26-30 , 21-25 , 16-20 and 11-15. You can find the 2014 off-season summary list here In these listings in parenthesis, I am including their ranking in the last prospect list, which was the 2014 mid-season list, with "--" if not ranked. You can find that list here. Before I start counting down the top 10, I need to mention the names of the players who dropped from the mid-season top 10 (along with their rankings in that list in parenthesis) : Nico Goodrum IF (22), Matthew Koch C (28), Zach Jones RHP (31), Sean Gilmartin LHP (32); and not only because he is not part of the organization any longer, Brian Gilbert RHP (33), Argenis Silva RHP (34), Sam Clay LHP (35), DJ Baxendale (37). Now that we established that Nico Goodrum is not one of the top 10, here are the prospects 10 to 6, with a couple of surprises:
 
 
 
10. Nick Burdi RHP (14) RHRP, DOB: 1/19/1993, 6'5", 215 lbs.
 
Nick Burdi was the Twins' 2nd round draft pick in 2014 from Louisville. This was what Nick Burdi did in relief in 2014: Louisville: 37 IP, 65 K, 10 BB; Cedar Rapids: 13 IP, 26 K, 8 BB; Fort Myers: 7.3 IP, 12 K, 2 BB. Total: 57.3 IP, 103 K, 20 BB. His K% was 43.6% in College, 48.2% at Cedar Rapids and 42.9% at Fort Myers. A high 90s nasty fastball that often reaches triple digits, complemented by a low 90s even nastier slider, and there is no wonder than many, including the author of this, were wondering why Burdi did not start his pro career in the majors, since he is the best RHRP in the Twins organization at any level, since he was drafted. But this is not the way the Twins are thinking. The 22 year old had nothing to prove in a league whose average age was 2 years + older. He will likely have nothing to prove in Chattanooga and be called to the majors by mid-season to serve as the Twins' set up man or even the closer. He is not on the 40 man roster and has not been invited to the MLB Spring Training camp as of yet.
 
9. Lewin Diaz 1B (24) LHB, DOB: 11/19/1996, 6'3, 180 lbs.
 
Lewin Diaz is an unknown name among most Twins' fans, but it will not be so for long. He was signed as a 16 year old in 2013 from the Dominican Republic for a $1.4 million bonus. 2014 was his Pro debut in the DSL where he hit .257/.385/.451 with 5 HRs and 24:26 K:BB in 174 PA as a 17 year old. He was about 1.5 years younger than the league average and hit well in a pitcher's league where the average slash line is .245/.339/.331. Five HRs might not seem like much, but Diaz hit all but 2 of the DSL HRs and had the same or more HRs than 3 of the Leagues' teams. His is stronger (and bigger) as a 17 year old than both Miguel Sano and Kennys Vargas at that age. His glove is a work in progress at 17 and will likely end up at first base. Will likely move to the GCL in 2015, where he will make his presence known to most of the Twins fans. Here is a picture of Diaz from 2013 with David Ortiz, when Diaz was on the Dominican elite travel team (and Diaz was just 16 years old) to get an idea about the size of this kid:
 
http://dplbaseball.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/2013-DPL-Elite-Travel-Team-tour-Ortid-Diaz-700x463.jpg
 
8. Eddie Rosario OF (10)
 
Eddie Rosario was the Twins' 4th round pick of the 2010 MLB draft from teh Rafael Lopez Landron High School in Puerto Rico. Rosario has been a top Twins prospect since he hit .337/.397/.670 with 21 HRs in 298 in Elizabethton as a 19 year old (1.5 years younger than League Average) in 2011. In 2012 he hit .296/.345/.490 in Beloit where he suffered a broken jaw as result of being hit by a pitch, and in 2013 he hit .329/.377/.527 in Fort Myers and .284/.330/.412 at New Britain. Baseball Prospectus twice named him top 100 prospect (#87 in 2012 and #60 in 2014). Last season was a trying season for Rosario. Suspended for 50 games for street drug use, changing position from 2B to full time OF, he never found his swing. He hit just .237/.277/.396 at New Britain and .300/.382/.300 in 8 games at Fort Myers, where he started the season.
 
So why is Rosario ranked so high, if he apparently has contact problems at AA? It is because of his past and his potential (for pretty much the same reason that Sano and Buxton are still top prospects, even though they had worse seasons that Rosario in 2014) and because of what he did in the Arizona Fall League where he hit .330/.362/.410 with 10 SB in 105 PAs (his highest SB/PA rate ever.) I take it as a clue that the 23 year old has put his bad couple seasons behind him and he is on his way of realizing his potential. I'd like to see more doubles as well, but he is getting there. He is on the Twins' 40 man roster, and unless something bad happens, he will be called for a cup of coffee in September, maybe sooner depending on his performance and the MLB team's needs. His stock as a prospect dropped when he moved to the outfield from second base, but still Rosario would had been a top 5 prospect in most organizations out there. Will likely start 2015 as the starting Centerfielder for the Red Wings (the assumption is that Buxton will have that position for the Lookouts,) unless he gains a major league job out of Spring Training.
 
7. Kohl Stewart RHP (7) RHSP, DOB: 10/7/1994, 6'3", 195 lbs.
 
Stewart was drafted by the Minnesota Twins in the 1st round (4th overall) of the 2013 from St Pius X (Houston, TX) High School. Other than a single game started in Elizabethton (4 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 8 K) he started his pro career in the GCL at age 18, where he pitched in 7 games (4 GS) for 20 innings, walking 3 and striking out 16. He had a 1.69 ERA and 0.938 WHIP. Last season was not Stewards best, when he was promoted to Cedar Rapids. There he started 19 games and looks like he was bitten by the pitch-to-contact bug of the Twins' organization. His K% dropped from 23.2% in the GCL (which is not great for someone with his stuff to begin with) to a mere 17.2%, putting his K rate to the Blackburner. His 2.59 ERA and 1.14 WHIP might look encouraging before someone takes a look at his 3.73 FIP and .270 BABIP. Still Stewart was a full 3 years too young for the league at 19 and has been battling shoulder issues pretty much the whole season.
 
Stewart has 4 pitches that he commands well: A plus to plus plus mid 90s fastball that peaks at 97-98, a close to plus mid to high 80s slider, an above average high 70s to low 80s curveball and a very good mid 80s changeup. In August his fastball was barely hitting 90, which is an indication of injury. He is still young, he has a lot of potential as long as the shoulder is strong. If that happens and if he can start to miss bats, he could be a top of the rotation pitcher. Right now, he is the third best RHSP prospect in the Twins' organization.
 
6. Amaurys Minier 1B/3B/OF (11) SHB, DOB: 1/30/1996 6'2", 190 lbs
 
Amaurys Minier might be slighted by this ranking (and it is the highest I have seen him ranked in any of these lists.) He was signed by the Twins as a 16-year amateur free agent ($1.4 million bonus) out of the Dominican Republic on July 2, 2012. In his first pro season in 2013 at the GCL he hit .214/.252/.455 (which other than the power numbers, is pretty bad) and then, he had shoulder surgery in the off-season for batter's shoulder. Recipe for disaster. Everyone thought that it will be a lost season. But what did Minier do? He played a full season in the same GCL as an 18-year old (2 years younger than the league average) and hit a mere .292/.405/.520 with a 29:52 BB:K ratio in 205 PAs. To put this into perspective: Minier had shoulder surgery, is 3 months younger than Nick Gordon (the Twins' 12th prospect), who in most lists is a top Twins' prospect, and out hit him in any possible way in the same team (Gordon's numbers: .294/.333/.366, 11:45 BB:SO, 256 PA.) If you have 2 players the same age, one coming from a surgery and outhitting the other by that much in the same team, there is no way to justify not ranking them in this order. Or is there?
The one issue with Minier is his glove. He was signed as a SS (a position he never played professionally and likely will never play,) played an awful third base in 2013 and a better 1B and so-so LF in 2014. A lot of people think that Minier might have the most power in the Twins' organization (and this includes his compatriots Sano and Diaz and the MLB stars in making Vargas and Arcia; Sano's GCL slash line was .291/.338/.466, for comparison. With these 5 players mentioned, the Twins might have locked the corner IF and OF and DH positions for a while. But this while will not start as soon as for the others, for Minier and Diaz. Definitely exciting to see how these young powerful guys develop for the Twins.
 
 
http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5152/7098789651_02fb66b359_z.jpg

Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed!
 
Looking to bolster a somewhat depleted and disappointing hot dog rotation, the Minnesota Twins will add a fifth hot dog to their hot dog starting rotation. In order to make the best possible decision, the Twins will wait until after Friday night's game. While the new hot dog will not debut in front of the home crowd until after the current road trip, many fans are paying close attention to which hot dog will be selected.
 
Schweigert, the Twins' hot dog vendor, currently provides four hot dog options: The Dugout Dog, The Dinger Dog, the Twins Big Dog and the Original Twins Dog. In selecting a fifth hot dog, the Twins will need to decide between the Minnesota Dog and the Kelsobasa hot dog, a play on this hot dog's Washington roots and the popular kielbasa sausage.
 
The Minnesota Dog is a hot dog very similar to the Original Twins Dog and a hot dog that many Twins fans are used to because of how similar it is to their traditional hot dogs. The Kelsobasa hot dog is considered to be the more exciting and talented option, although it is new and young and that scares some members of the front office and coaching staff. Count Ron Gardenhire among those leery of the Kelsobasa hot dog:
 
"For me, I want a hot dog that I can rely on. I don't need bells and whistles. I need a dog that will play hard in my stomach without leaving a bad aftertaste. If I'm going to be honest, the Minnesota Dog sounds like an attractive option. It reminds me of the Twins Dog and I like that familiarity. I've never had a Kelsobasa and that makes me nervous."
 
Fans appear to be divided. Some fans prefer the more familiar Minnesota dog, much like Gardenhire. Others have heard about the Kelsobasa Dog from various websites and news sources and are intrigued by the hot dog's upside. Many feel this Kelsobasa hot dog could be a mainstay at Target Field while the Minnesota Dog is not different enough to be a fixture in the hot dog rotation. Gerald Reid of Andover is one of those fans:
 
"If the Twins add another freaking pitch-to-contact hot dog like the Minnesota Dog, I'll be beyond upset. I'm ready for a more exciting hot dog. We've basically been eating Minnesota Dogs since the 90s and I'm sick of it!"
When pressed to explain how a hot dog can pitch-to-contact, Reid repeatedly apologized for the mixed metaphor and ran off crying.
 
It is possible that the Twins will add the Minnesota Dog and then replace another similar, but more established hot dog with the Kelsobasa Dog down the line. However, the Twins have been slow to adapt to the concession-related evolution in Major League Baseball. Some fans are worried that the Twins will not act even though the time is right and even though they've said all the right things about trying to add more zip to their hot dog selection. Andrew Mathis of New Hope has that very concern:
 
"My biggest worry is that the Kelsobasa Dog will be at Target Field for a few weeks, not perform to a high standard that has been unreasonably set and then disappear for a long time. The Twins are prone to going back to the safe option. If that happens, we could be eating Minnesota and Twins dogs for a really long time."
 
An anonymous member of the Twins' front office explained that the choice is ultimately not all that important. The casual fan is likely not very aware of either option and will simply listen to what Dick Bremer thinks of the new hot dog.
 
Regardless of their choice, the new hot dog will arrive from Schweigert's little-known Rochester distribution center prior to Saturday's game, even though the Twins are currently in Oakland. It is logical to assume that the new hot dog will wear the same wrapper as it wore while with Rochester.