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What a year!
2016 2017 changeActual Wins 59 85 +26
Improving by 26 games is quite a feat. So how did the 2017 Twins get there?
2016 2017 changeActual Wins 59 85 +26Pythag Wins 66 83 +17Luck -7 +2 +9
Okay, so the actual improvement was more like 17 games. The "Luck" here is shorthand for the difference between their wins and the wins we should have expected given their run totals--in other words, the advantage the Twins had over a team that scores runs in the average distribution. It is a measure of the luck involved in when the runs scored, not in whether the runs scored.
 
Wait, so one-third of the 2017 Twins performance improvement was due to luck? Should we despair that the success is illusory and thus expect the Twins to sink back to mediocrity? Not quite. The 2016 Twins were quite unlucky, so it isn't bad that they changed that. You can't count on the number being much higher than +2 in 2018, but neither should we assume it will certainly be lower. Typical division winners outperform their Pythagorean record, and so the Twins should hope to do so in 2018. That this "luck" number is merely +2 should calm the Twins fans' insecurities; the Royals has a luck number of +8 in falling short of .500, and so Royals fans should acquiesce to their unavoidable rebuild period.
 
So enough about "luck". Where did the Twins' actual improvement in run-scoring and run-preventing achievements come from?
2016 2017 changeLuck -7 +2 +9Hitters WAR 17.0 28.7 +11.7Pitchers WAR 1.8 7.0 +5.2
So three-fourths of the Twins' actual improvement was in their hitters. Let's take a closer look at it. Note that I am evaluating their hitters with hitting, baserunning, and fielding put together.
WAR 2016 2017 changeHitters 16.0 24.9 +8.9 CF Buxton 1.9 5.1 +3.2C Suzuki=>Castro 0.4 2.5 +2.13B Sano 0.8 2.5 +1.7SS Polanco 0.6 2.1 +1.51B Mauer 2.3 3.4 +1.1LF Rosario 1.1 1.7 +0.6DH Grossman 0.3 0.8 +0.5RF Kepler 2.1 2.4 +0.32B Dozier 6.5 4.4 -2.1CI Escobar -0.6 1.3 +1.94O Santana=>Granite -1.3 0.3 +1.6BC Centeno=>Gimenez 0.8 0.7 -0.1CI Plouffe=>Vargas 0.4 0.3 -0.1MI Nunez=>Adrianza 1.5 0.9 -0.6
A nine-win improvement from your starting lineup is excellent, and the bench even improved a bit. Do you think that the Twins did nothing last offseason? Looking at the above, I see ten moves the Twins made (or avoided making) that altogether led to this twelve-win improvement.
 
Moves that worked
 
Staying committed to Buxton, Polanco, and Rosario: The Twins stuck with Byron Buxton through a rough May and June. It would have been defensible to have demoted him to work on his hitting in AAA. The Terry Ryan regime might have done just that, but Derek Falvey and Thad Levine stuck with him, most notably because his fielding was not just above average but the best in the league. In the end, Buxton refined his swing and started hitting like his promise always showed.
 
In the same vein, the Twins stayed consistent with Jorge Polanco, who spent the entire year as the starting shortstop. While he didn't have defensive talent to help him along, the confidence in his ability paid off as his hitting skyrocketed in the second half. There was pressure to demote Polanco, but faith in him was paid off well.
 
Similarly, Rosario found a better stroke and contributed more than most thought reasonable to hope for.
 
Replacing Kurt Suzuki with Jason Castro: Passing on extending Suzuki, the Twins figured they could do better, and did so with Jason Castro. Castro is under contract through 2019, so the move will continue to pay off.
 
Keeping Sano at third base instead of DH: There was fear that Sano in the field at third base could be a liability, but he has done quite well there. The Twins definitely expect more production from Sano's bat, but keeping him at third base should be at least the short-term plan, assuming his current shin injury is not an impediment for doing so in 2018.
 
Not trading Dozier: While his production declined a bit from a stellar 2016, Dozier was still the third-best of all the Twins. The leading rumor last year was that the Dodgers would have traded Jose De Leon, but the Twins wanted more. That judgment paid off, as we can only assume that the Twins would not have found most of Dozier's 4.4 WAR anywhere else.
 
Not giving up on Mauer against LHP: Like most Twins fans, I was disappointed in Mauer's overall hitting in the years following the concussion, and I was clamoring for them to platoon him. Instead, he hit a respectable .750 OPS against lefties, and more, there was no obvious choice to pair with as a platoon. The Twins should continue to decrease Mauer's appearances against lefties, but the urgency to make this platoon a priority is eased.
 
Keeping Eduardo Escobar despite a poor 2016. Escobar as a bench player contributed as the Twins hoped and not as they feared. While he might not play much again at shortstop, his bat is enough to warrant keeping on as a corner infielder.
 
Moves that bombed
 
Sticking with Grossman at DH: The Twins thought Grossman could hit, so they gave him lots more chances at DH. Well, we should now realize that he can hit...sort of. The Twins could have added a win or two with a better DH.
 
Giving chances to Vargas: I think we now know that Vargas is not a major league DH. Could Falvey and Levine have come to this conclusion a bit sooner?
 
Not bolstering the bench: While improvements here would have been marginal, the right set of moves may have added a win or two.
 
On to the pitchers.
2016 2017 change5 Starters 1.5 7.4 +5.9Berrios -1.7 1.7 +3.4Duffey=>Colon -1.6 0.1 +1.7Santana 3.8 4.6 +0.8Nolasco=>Mejia 0.4 0.8 +0.4Gibson 0.6 0.2 -0.4
Pitching was disappointing, but there is a bit of hope in that they indeed improved, and two young pitchers clearly took steps forward.
 
Moves that worked
 
Not trading Santana: My choice for team MVP, J. Ervin Santana was the only comfortable part of this rotation. The Twins could have traded him, as he isn't a legitimate top-tier ace, but they would have been lost without him.
 
Committing to Berrios: This was an easier decision given his solid start to the season, but they could have sent him to Rochester to start the year--and perhaps Terry Ryan would have done so. Instead, he now looks like a real pitcher who is ready to show the rest of the league his mettle.
 
Giving lots of chances to Mejia: While Mejia's WAR is disappointing from a competition perspective, it is in line with a player in his stage of development. Without starting Mejia early and often the Twins might have hurt themselves, but more importantly, Mejia's development in the majors should give him more confidence and experience to improve in 2018.
 
Signing Bartolo Colon: While his last month showed us that the Twins shouldn't press their luck, Colon gave the Twins just a dash of added success, however meek, that wasn't available anywhere else. Dillon Gee was just not going to get it done.
 
Raising the standard past Duffey: When you are used to seeing poor pitching, Tyler Duffey might have looked promising, but he really isn't. There's a chance he can improve going forward, but it isn't a big one.
 
Moves that bombed
Signing Nolasco and extending Hughes: Yes, this was an old decision, but the Twins paid too much for Phil Hughes (in dollars+years) and Ricky Nolasco (in losing Alex Meyer). If they could have found a better free agent pitcher in 2014-2016 to help them this year, it would have been a bump up in the win column.
 
Not having an ace: Easier said than done, but imagine how better off the Twins would be with an additional pitcher to start above Santana. All the other playoff teams had at least one top-tier starter, but the Twins are now stuck without one. I can't say that there was a move available to address this, but it remains an albatross the Twins will carry for the foreseeable future.
 
And the bullpen:
2016 2017 changeRelievers 2.2 2.9 +0.8Tonkin=>Busenitz -0.4 0.7 +1.1Milone=>Breslow -0.7 -0.1 +0.6Rogers 0.6 1.1 +0.5Kintzler 1.0 1.1 +0.1May=>Belisle -0.1 0.0 +0.1Dean=>Duffey -0.4 -0.4 0.0Boshers 0.0 -0.1 -0.1Abad=>Hildenberger 1.0 0.8 -0.2Pressly 1.0 -0.2 -0.8
The Twins couldn't even get three wins-above-replacement from their top 9 relievers--which is particularly problematic when you remember that a replacement-level team would win only 45 or so games.
 
Moves that worked
 
Calling up Hildenberger and Busenitz: These two relievers outperformed all but two of the Twins' bullpen members, and did so in limited playing time. Hopefully this teaches the Twins a lesson--but it may be more apt to say that Falvey and Levine are teaching the Twins this lesson already: trust your young players if you believe they are good. 0.5 WAR replacement players are just that: replacable and often replaced. Why replace them with other scrap-heap signings and waiver claims when you could replace them with young, ready-enough talent?
 
Moves that bombed
 
Sticking with Pressly, Boshers, Breslow, and Duffey: These pitchers should have very little shot at a competitive team's bullpen. They just don't seem good enough, and the latter three are in danger of being designated for assignment--if not this offseason, at some point in the future when the Twins find relievers who are worthy. Particularly disappointing is Tyler Duffey, whose transition to the bullpen has been frustrating for himself and Twins coaches alike.
 
Not finding other bullpen help: The Twins could have spent some millions improving their bullpen with options better than Belisle. The biggest flaws in the bullpen this year were injuries to Wimmers, Perkins, May, Chargois, O'Rourke, and Jay, though of course this is not reflective of a move that worked or failed; it's just too bad the Twins didn't have any other better options to turn to.
 
Signing Matt Belisle: Feel free to object to this one, as I agree Belisle was one of the Twins' only good options in the bullpen--but they could have and should have done better.
 
Becoming a real competitor
 
Reflecting on all of this, here are some moves that you might want to put into your off-season blueprint. The Twins need to get to 92 wins to have a good chance to beat the Indians and win the division in 2018, and it may take more than that. It is a lot easier to get there from 83 pythagorean wins than in any of the five seasons previous, so now's the time to go for it.
 
Expect more from Buxton and Sano: The Twins two most promising players underperformed as hitters in 2018: Buxton for the first half, and Sano with injuries and a minor slump. These two are on a excellent trajectory and still have a ton of promise. Neither of them should be a disappointment to anyone, and I am hoping for 10-12 WAR from them in 2018.
 
Keep Brian Dozier and Ervin Santana: These are the kind of players the Twins should want to acquire, not trade away. Should the Twins keep them till free agency, they can make them each a qualifying offer and thereafter win an additional draft pick, which is a better outcome than trading them for B-level prospects. They are both solid players, and I hope for them to repeat their 9 WAR together in 2018.
 
Sign or trade for a designated hitter: I do not like the idea of moving Sano to DH and relying on Escobar or converting Polanco or a prospect shortstop to a poor-hitting third baseman. It would be far easier to find some other upgrade at DH than it would to commit to prospects at shortstop/third base for the next few years. As long as Sano is near-average in the field at third base, let him stay there. Besides, Polanco projects as a better second baseman than third baseman, which the Twins will need after Dozier leaves in free agency for 2019. Keeping Sano at third keeps Escobar as a bench bat and infield fill-in and descreases the need to play players like Adrianza or Goodrum. A capable DH should be able to increase output by 1.5 WAR next year over Grossman.
 
Sign an elite reliever: It is going to be easier to sign a reliever here than a starter, and the Twins have to get better at pitching anywhere. Signing Wade Davis, for example, would improve the bullpen tremendously and let the Twins use Hildenberger, Rogers, Buesnitz, and players coming back from injury in roles they can bulid success in. Wade Davis has achieved 3 WAR several times in his career, and we could hope for the same impact, especially if used wisely.
 
Attempt to trade for an ace starter if it is posslble: This is a tough sell, so I won't belabor it. Hope for it, but it is unlikely. The Twins can't sell the farm for this, so it probably won't happen, but it is the biggest area the Twins could improve. They should at least try. As for signings, I'd make a semi-serious offer for Darvish or even Arrieta, but it likely won't have enough years or dollars to get either.
 
Plan on trusting young starters over any free agents: While some may think the Twins should sign a free-agent pitcher, the risk of another Nolasco contract is large. Even if the Twins find a pitcher better than Nolasco and on par or even a bit better than Kyle Gibson, it would not appreciably improve the team, as the Twins already have six starters at this level: Mejia, Stephen Gonsalves, Aaron Slegers, Fernando Romero, Felix Jorge, and of course, Gibson. You can hope for 1.0-1.5 WAR out of any of these players; why go hunting for expensive free agents for it? Perhaps one of them will break through and deliver 3 WAR. So altogether, I'm hoping for an increase of 4 WAR out of the three, four, and five starting pitchers even with no trades or free agent signings.
 
Plan on trusting young relievers over inexpensive free agents: The Matt Belisle signing is not one the Twins should repeat. While they should consider signing pitchers who are a step up from Belisle, signing a pitcher at Belisle's level (or even extending Belisle himself) is too weak an ambition to improve the team. The Twins have already shown confidence in Hildenberger and Busenitz, which should continue. The previously mentioned Perkins, May, Chargois, O'Rourke, and Jay are all options to help the Twins bullpen in 2018, as well as Jake Reed and John Curtiss after them. The Twins' farm system might be considered strong in relief pitching and 2018 is the year to start gaining from it. From the two through six relievers, the Twins can get 5 WAR better from just small improvements from each spot. One or two relievers will get worse and one or two may break through, but the 2017 baseline is so low that it will look like a new bullpen altogether in the aggregate.
 
Consider signing or trading for a bench bat, preferably outfield: Assuming that Rosario or Zack Granite can play center field in a pinch, it might make sense to find an corner outfielder with some pop against left-handers. Even without a full-time platoon, such a player would be valuable off the bench. The Twins were hoping they could ask this out of Grossman, but it seems that they don't trust him to play defense regularly. Furthermore, neither Rosario and Kepler should be taken for granted; if either get injured or go into an extended slump, someone will need to step in. Chris B. Young or Rajai Davis look to be the best free agent options that somewhat fit. Perhaps the trade market might have a younger or better right-handed hitter. An increase of 1 WAR is reachable here.
 
So all of these realistic, affordable decisions could result in an increase of 17 WAR, to bring the projected win total from 83 pythagorean wins (that is, wins with 0 luck) to 100, and it can be achieved with a modest payroll increase, few or no trades, and keeping the above average farm system going. Now I am not claiming that any of these projected performances are certain or even very likely. Even if the Twins make all these moves, players will get injured, slump, or just trail off into yearlong struggles. However, if the Twins execute an offseason plan to shoot for 100 wins, there's a chance they get 92 or 95, or even 102.
 
The time for the Twins to have low expectations is over. The Twins should be aiming for 100 wins, and they can do it with a little gumption and strategy.

One exercise that is fun, and in the interest of full disclosure gets a lot of people reading and talking, is ranking things in order as a “power ranking.” No seriously, if you call something a “power ranking” you’re guaranteed to see traffic go through the roof. I’m thinking of calling my podcast “power ranking.”
 
OK, I’m kidding.
 
But it’s a fun exercise to apply to a team’s 25-man roster. My general theory — and this can be altered if viewers think there is a better way — is to base a player’s ranking on how they’ve played to date, with a bit more weight placed on recent performance. We’ll also consider myriad reasons why players might be doing better than others, such as role the player was used in and so on, but at the very least, this is to get people talking.
 
In parenthesis, you’ll find the previous ranking for each player. We last did rankings on May 25, and will most likely do them one more time before the end of the season. Or perhaps more often, if people suggest they really like them. Send hate mail to Tom Schreier.
 
1. Eddie Rosario (Previous ranking: 18)
 
It’s not just that he’s been hot lately, but his season numbers are really starting to look great. Rosario is hitting a stellar .296/.337/.503 for the season. That’s good for a wRC+ of 119 — 11th among qualified left fielders. That’s ahead of some pretty good players, too, like Nomar Mazara, Andrew Benintendi, Matt Kemp, Brett Gardner and Michael Brantley. Since July 1 — Rosario’s five-hit game — he’s hitting an insane .333/.376/.581. Wonder if anyone has written about him lately?
 
2. Ervin Santana (no change)
 
Santana’s had a fine year, even with all the ebbs and flows. Through 24 starts, Santana has five complete games and a 3.28 ERA. However, that comes with a 4.71 FIP, thanks in large part to 25 homers allowed and not particularly strong strikeout and walk rates. He’s a sturdy No. 2 on a team that has no ace — so everyone moves up a notch. It’ll be interesting to see how holding onto him plays out. He’s managed to avoid serious injury for almost all of his career, but father time is undefeated.
 
3. Brian Dozier (4)
 
Just another ho-hum 20-homer season for Dozier — his fourth in a row. He’s hitting a solid .258/.334/.473, playing fairly steady defense and has hit a robust .298/.350/.605 over the last 30 days. Only Rosario (160) has a higher wRC+ over the last 30 days than Dozier’s 148. It’d be nice to see what he could do hitting third or fourth, no?
 
4. Miguel Sano (1)
 
Miggy gets big props for hitting .269/.354/.511 on the season, but he’s been pretty cold of late. Over the last 30 days, he’s hitting just .255/.295/.439, and he hasn’t been particularly good at staying within the strike zone after starting the season off really strong in that respect. It’s been a fine season, but it would be nice to see it ascend to a great season for the young monster.
 
5. Jose Berrios (6)
 
A rough couple starts have sullied his overall season numbers (4.27 ERA), but he’s still improved by leaps and bounds from last year, isn’t walking anyone and is keeping the ball in the yard. Chalk it up to the ebbs and flows of being a young starter.
 
6. Trevor Hildenberger (NR)
 
Hildy gets the nod over the elder Belisle solely because of the beginning of the latter’s season. Both have been absolutely terrific of late, as Hildenberger hasn’t walked a batter in the last 30 days with 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings and a groundball rate of 55.6 percent. He could just as easily pitch the ninth inning moving forward if manager Paul Molitor so chooses. He has some interesting options out there.
 
7. Matt Belisle (22)
 
Forget the start of his season or even the home run he allowed to Justin Upton; Belisle has been terrific now for about two months and deserves some love. Sure, he’s not an ideal option to close games. Nobody on the team is, really. But since his blow-up in San Francisco back in mid-June, look at these numbers: 22 games/24 innings, 23-5 K/BB ratio, 1.13 ERA, .209/.261/.326 line against. That’s legit.
 
8. Tyler Duffey (7)
 
Duffey hit a bit of a speed bump not too long ago that pushed his ERA over 4.00, but he’s on the cusp of bringing it back under (4.04) as he’s been brilliant for the last month. Over the last 30 days, Duffey has a 1.42 ERA (2.35 FIP), more than a strikeout per inning and 0.7 BB/9. He could also be in the mix to close out games.
 
9. Bartolo Colon (NR)
 
The BART has gotten better with each passing start. He’s got a 4.02 ERA with the Twins, and despite virtually no strikeouts (4.6 K/9) has walked 0.9 batters per nine and has managed to keep the ball in the park for the most part (1.2 HR/9). There’s virtually no risk here, as he can be immediately DFA’d if he falls apart. But the value he’s already provided has been a really, really nice find for the Falvey-Levine duo.
 
10. Byron Buxton (12)
 
He just pushed the OBP up above .300, and he’s been terrific over the last 30 days: .313/.370/.415. If he ever does that over a full season, he’s a full-fledged superstar.
 
For players 11-25, click here to go to ZoneCoverage.com!

You may have noticed that Eddie Rosario has been hitting higher in the order of late. Part of it has been that the Twins have faced a number of lefties lately, and he’s one of the few batters on the team holding their own against them. Part it is also that Miguel Sano has been sidelined for the past few days after getting hit on the hand with a pitch against the Texas Rangers.
 
But perhaps a large part of it stems from the fact that Rosario is having a nice offensive season, too. For the season, Rosario is hitting .284/.323/.464. The on-base percentage is a career-high by nearly 30 points. He set his career-high in walks for a season on July 5 with 16. That’s not a misprint -- he drew more walks in the first half of 2017 than he did in all of 2016 or the year prior.
 
We’ll come back to that in a bit.
 
It’s not as though Rosario has stung the ball all season long -- at least not from a results standpoint. The 26-year-old left fielder headed into June hitting a very Rosario-like .269/.302/.431. He then hit .291/.341/.519 in the month of June and has been swinging well since, with a slash line of .297/.342/.492 over his last 54 games. His K/BB ratio is 41-13 over that stretch, and while that won’t make anyone forget about Joe Mauer, it is important that he controls the strike zone better -- as we noted this offseason when we projected a possible breakout.
 
From the surface, it’s not hard to see that Rosario is taking a better approach at the plate. While he’s still susceptible to swinging at pitcher’s pitches early in counts or getting himself out, he’s done a much better job laying off pitches outside of the zone. Rosario’s chase rate in his rookie season was 45.6 percent. In other words, he swung at pitches out of the zone nearly half the time -- a staggering figure. That improved to 41.7 percent last year and now 36.7 percent this season. The American League average is 29.7 percent, so while there has been some improvement, more could still be justified.
 
The improved discipline also shows up in his swinging strike rate. That rate peaked last year at 15.3 percent, but is down to a career-low 12.1 percent this season. Again, while that’s progress, it’s still a bit off AL average (10.4 percent).
 
Please click through to Zone Coverage to read the rest of this article here.

The July 31 non-waiver trade deadline is pretty straightforward -- you’re either traded, or you aren’t. It’s after that where it gets a bit....complicated. In fact, players can technically be traded up until the end of the regular season, but they must be in an organization and on the 40-man roster on Aug. 31 to be eligible for postseason play.
 
In short, that’s why you might see some trades that happen between Aug. 1 and the end of the month.
 
The Twins have been no stranger to these types of trades. Don Baylor came over in 1987, and despite not doing much down the stretch for that season, was instrumental in October with seven hits in 21 postseason plate appearances, including a home run in the World Series. In 2003, the Twins picked up 46-year-old Jesse Orosco from the New York Yankees to get the last 14 outs of his storied 24-year career. The next year, the Twins acquired catcher Pat Borders for the stretch run from the Mariners with Joe Mauer on the shelf. Two years later, the Twins traded for Phil Nevin.
 
You get the point.
 
So what makes these deals different from those consummated before the July 31 deadline? Well, waivers comes into play. Any player not on the 40-man roster can be traded at this time -- which is often why you’ll see big leaguers moved for low-level or low-end prospects and/or cash -- without any special qualification, but a player on a 40-man roster must first be put on what is called revocable trade waivers.
 
Here’s a hypothetical, not because it would happen, but because it’s relatable:
 
Let’s say the Twins put Mauer on trade waivers. We’re assuming he doesn’t have a no-trade clause in this case, or that he’s told the Twins he’d waive it to play for a contender. Mauer has somewhere in the vicinity of $30 million owed to him for the rest of this season and all of next season. The other 29 teams have the opportunity to place a claim on Mauer, and if he goes unclaimed, he has cleared waivers and is thus eligible to be traded to any team.
 
Please click through to Zone Coverage to read the rest of this post here.

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
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The first segment of this series was dedicated to cleaning up the Twins' existing 40-man roster, assuming that the new management will do the right thing and go for a full rebuild. This second segment, further adjusts the roster by adding players to protect from the draft, and maybe subtracting some of the players on the derived roster. As a bonus, I will be listing additional Twins minor leaguers who do not need to be protected for the Rule 5 draft, but might merit consideration for a spot on the roster. This list will give a good overview of the high level minor league talent available currently in the Twins' organization. I will not proposed to add anyone who does not need to be added on the 40-man roster right now, eg. Steven Gonsalves, Jake Reed etc, but instead, the Twins should invite them as non-roster players to the 2017 Spring Training. If they win a job there, they should merit a roster spot, but the Twins would need much roster flexibility this off-season.
 
Here is the 24 man roster, after the clean up. Noted that if Perkins is moved to the 60-day disabled list, the roster would stand at 23, allowing up to 17 openings:
 
Jose Berrios 5/27/1994 (RHSP)
Byron Buxton 12/18/1993 (CF)
Juan Centeno 11/16/1989 ©
J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990 (RHRP)
Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990 (RHRP)
Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 (RHSP)
Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989 (IF)
Max Kepler 2/10/1993 (RF)
Yorman Landa 6/11/1994 (RHRP)
Pat Light 3/29/1991 (RHRP)
Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 (1B/DH)
Trevor May 9/23/1989 (RHSP)
Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993 (LHSP)
Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991 (LHRP)
John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991 ©
Byungho Park 7/10/1986 (1B/DH)
Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 (LHRP) (*)
Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993 (SS)
Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990 (LHRP)
Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991 (LF)
Randy Rosario 5/18/1994 (LHRP)
Miguel Sano 5/11/1993 (3B)
Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990 (1B/DH)
Adam Walker 10/18/1991 (OF/DH)
 
Clearly the weakest lings on the roster are the two borderline age-wise position players, Catcher Juan Centeno, and utility infielder Eduardo Escobar. In addition, Pat Light is the weakest relief pitcher, so borderline players would be compared to these three because they will be fighting for their spots.
 
Here are the Rule 5 Draft-eligible Position players, by position:
 
Catchers:
 
Kevin Garcia, 9/17/1992, A/A+, 2016: .249/.302/.323, career: .252/.321/.315
Mitch Garver, 1/1/1991, AAA/AA, 2016: .270/.342/.422, career: .267/.359/.406 (*)
Rainis Silva, 3/20/1996 A, 2016: .230/.297/.254, career: .238/.295/.293
Stuart Turner, 12/27/1991, AA, 2016: .239/.322/.363, career: .241/.325/.352
 
Clearly Mitch Garver should be on the roster, since he will be fighting for a starting job in 2017. Rainis Silva's glove is the best in the organization at the Catcher position right now, but his bat stinks, and unless that improves (and there is a lot of time, he just turned 20,) there is no risk of losing him. I do not see Kevin Garcia being selected. Whether adding Stuart Turner on the roster, is a toss-up. His bat does not play in the majors, but his glove might. Which brings the question: who should be on the roster, Turner or Centeno? I think that Centeno's lefty bat that was not unrespectable in the majors wins here, but it is a close call. It might be an academic question because the Twins are in dire need of a young good catcher, and if they obtain him this off-season will take the spot now reserved for Centeno.
 
Additions: Garver
 
Infielders:
 
Niko Goodrum, 2/28/1992, A+/AA, 2016: .275/.352/.464, career: .247/.339/.368
Levi Michael 2/9/1991, AA, 2016: .215/.293/.291, career: .250/.341/.343
Amaurys Minier, 1/20/1996, RK+, 2016: .222/.318/.449, career: .233/.321/.422
Rafael Valera, 8/25/1994, A, 2016: .261/.366/.409, career: .260/.380/.333
Engelb Vielma, 6/22/1994, A+/AA, 2016: .265/.344/.310, career: .264/.327/.309
Ryan Walker, 3/26/1992, A+/AA, 2016: .271/.347/.345, career: .262/.324/.321
 
Levi Michael had a terrible season after two strong ones, and I am not sure whether he is even in the Twins' plans right now that the administration that picked him in the first round is extinct. I cannot see Valera or Walker get selected, I think that Niko's Goodrum's career year and positional versatility (can play both positions on the left side of the infield, and can sub for both Sano and Polanco, plus Centerfield) as well as Engelb Vielma's standout glove and improved to respectability bat, will entice teams and could help the Twins in the future. As a matter of fact, either would be better as a utility player for the 2017 Twins than Eduardo Escobar. Both in, Escobar traded/non-tendered. The last player in this list is a wild card. Amaurys Minier has had superstar potential but been plagued by injuries and inconsistencies. Has not played above Elizabethton, but I am so afraid that someone could pull a Johan Santana on the Twins and pick him. Got to protect him for at least another year.
 
Additions: Goodrum, Minier, Vielma
Subtractions: Escobar
 
Outfielders:
 
Edgar Corcino 6/7/1992, AA/A+ 2016: .273/.337/.420, career: .245/.316/.368
JJ Fernandez, 3/30/1994, A, 2016: .225/.293/.363, career: .239/.293/.363
Zach Granite, 9/17/1992, AA, 2016: .295/.347/.382 (56/70 SB), career: .282/.349/.354 (*)
Max Murphy, 11/17/1992, A/A+, 2016: .236/.289/.358, career: .252/.329/.411
Travis Harrison, 10/17/1992, AA, 2016: .230/.338/.339, career: .254/.360/.380
Daniel Palka, 10/28/1991, AA/AAA, 2016: .254/.327/.521, career: .268/.346/.509 (*)
 
I think that what I wrote previously regardless Levi Michael, applies to Travis Harrison as well. This might be his last chance in the Twins' organization. Fernandez and Murphy are not close to being MLB-ready or selected in the draft. Corcino is a better player than both, but still ways away. This leaves the player whom the Twins named minor league player of the year, Zach Granite, and the player they should had named, Daniel Palka. They both should be protected and added on the 40-man roster. Palka will fight (or push back to second base) Eduardo Rosario for a corner outfielder job and Zach Granite and his 56 stolen bases might make the best 4th outfielder, pinch runner combination the Twins have had for years.
 
Additions: Granite, Palka
 
Notable non-Rule 5 Draft-eligible at A+ and above position players:
 
Nick Gordon (SS) 10/24/1995, A+, 2016: .291/.335/.386, career: .285/.335/.371
LaMonte Wade (OF) 1/1/1994, A/A+, 2016: .293/.402/.438, career: .297/.409/.459
 
Both should be invited to the 2017 Spring Training and given the ability to win an MLB job, but they should not be added on the roster unless they need to.
 
Rule 5 Draft-eligible Pitchers:
 
Starters:
 
Ryan Eades ®, 12/15/1991, AA, 2016: 4.61 ERA, 1.376 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 career: 4.33 ERA, 1.379 WHIP, 6.7 K/9
Felix Jorge.® 1/2/1994, A+/AA, 2016: 2.69 ERA, 1.088 WHIP, 5.9 K/9 career: 3.17 ERA, 1.164 WHIP, 7.4 K/9
Aaron Slegers, ® 9/4/1992, AA, 2016: 3.41 ERA, 1.259 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 career: 3.54 ERA, 1.178 WHIP, 6.5 K/9
Fernando Romero, ® 12/24/1994, A/A+, 2016: 2.09 ERA, 0.897 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 career: 2.37 ERA, 1.032 WHIP, 8.8 K/9
Lewis Thorpe, (L), 11/23/1995. lost 2015 and 2016 with Tommy John surgery & other ailments. 2012-2014: 2.96 ERA, 1.176 WHIP, 11.2 K/9
Jason Wheeler (L), 10/27/1990, AAA/AA, 2016: 3.30 ERA, 1.163 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 career: 3.66 ERA, 1.325 WHIP, 6.4 K/9
 
Ryan Eades had a below average season as a starter and I expect him to make the transition to the pen this season, which will be his best opportunity to get to the majors. Felix Jorge and Fernando Romero are just too good not to add. Both, especially Romero, have outside chances of wining a position in the Twins' rotation this spring. They are both no-brainer additions. Lewis Thorpe was a phenomenal prospect who lost 2 seasons in a row. Is he back? Only the Twins know. I just do not see a chance for anyone to select him, but if the Twins think there is, I can see him add him on the roster. I won't. Slegers is an intriguing possibility: He has been above average his career with above average stuff, but has shown nothing eye opening, in both raw stuff and results. Very intriguing conversion to a reliever who might get a mid to high 90s fastball from this frame. Should the Twins add him on the roster and do it? In the expense of Pat Light or any of the other relievers who need protection? I don't think so. Regardless whether he is selected or not, he should be in a bullpen next season. This leaves us to Jason Wheeler whom the Twins protected in 2015, unprotected in 2016, and snubbed him for a call up, in a year he was pitching well in both AA and AAA, for the likes of Anrew Albers. Terrible decision, but I hope that the change in the administration does the right thing and protects him, if for not other reason, because he is lefty and successful and he is second, after Adalberto Mejia, in the Twins LHSP depth chart. This might change during the off-season if the Twins acquire a LHSP or two better than Mejia, and they should target that. But until then, Wheeler is in, at least for 2017 to show what he can do.
 
Additions: Jorge, Romero, Wheeler
 
Relievers:
 
Luke Bard ® 11/13/1990, A+/AA, 2016: 3.74 ERA, 1.400 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 career: 3.23 ERA, 1.310 WHIP, 7.9 K/9
DJ Baxendale ®, 12/8/1990, As a RP only: AAA 2016: 1.29 ERA, 1.029 WHIP, 10.3 K/9
Omar Bencomo ® 2/10/1989, AA/AAA, 2016: 3.74 ERA, 1.352 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, career: 3.77 ERA, 1.271 WHIP, 6.7 K/9
Cameron Booser (L), 5/4/1992, A/A+, 2016: 8.53 ERA, 2.013 WHIP, 12.1 K/9, career: 4.32 ERA, 1.571 WHIP, 12.1 K/9
Alan Busenitz ® 8/22/1990, AA/AAA, 2016: 3.54 ERA, 1.262 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 career: 3.55 ERA, 1.320 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 (might protect him for political reasons - he came in the Meyer/Nolasco trade, but there are better players)
C.K. Irby, ®, 5/6/1992, A, 2016: 2.42 ERA, 1.119 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 career: 3.56 ERA, 1.264 WHIP, 11.5 K/9
Zack Jones ®, 12/4/1990, AA/AAA, 2016: 3.47 ERA, 1.294 WHIP, 12.4 K/9 career: 2.97 ERA, 1.218 WHIP, 12.7 K/9
Brandon Peterson, ®, 9/23/1991, A+/AA, 2016: 3.30 ERA, 1.150 WHIP, 11.2 K/9 career: 2.41 ERA, 1.109 WHIP, 12.1 K/9
Brian Gilbert, ®, 8/9/1992, A+, 2016: 5.53 ERA, 2.024 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, career: 3.66 ERA, 1.439 WHIP, 6.6 K/9
Williams Ramirez, ®, 8/8/1992, A, 2016: 2.62 ERA, 1.055 WHIP, 10.8 K/9, career: 1.97 ERA, 1.038 WHIP, 10.1 K/9
Todd Van Steensel ®, 1/14/1991, A+/AA, 2016: 3.88 ERA, 1.324 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, career: 3.42 ERA, 1.291 WHIP, 9.7 K/9
 
This is a long list of 11 relievers, with only one of them (Booser) a lefty. Booser had a disappointing season in both High A and A and will not be selected. The same is true for Brian Gilbert. Bencomo is a last option type of player, and will not be selected. Van Steensel's season was not strong enough to get consideration. C.K. Irby's was, however it was not at a high enough level. The same for Williams Ramirez, but watch out if these two repeat their results in high A and/or AA in 2017. Which brings us to Luke Bard, the Twins' former 1st round pick, who is about to turn 26, and had an average season, but has not been the same after losing 2014 recovering from shoulder surgery. I think that this will be his last chance to prove that he belongs in the prospect conversation and I will not be surprised if it is not in the Twins' organization. Alan Busenitz is an interesting case. He pitched in AA and AAA with average results, that reflect the rest of his minor league career, but the Twins might protect him for political reasons, since he was acquired in the Alex Meyer, Ricky Nolasco trade that also brought Hector Santiago to the Twins. Maybe the new administration will let the past go and would not protect him. I wouldn't. However, I would protect the most successful reliever in the Twins' minor league system, DJ Baxendale, who after transitioning to that role for Rochester upon his promotion from Chatanooga excelled. This leaves us two pitchers who might depart via the draft, and one last off-season: Zach Jones and Brandon Peterson. Got to add Pat Light to the conversation and it is two out of three. I'd picke Jones and Light, risking Peterson's departure, mainly because he has played in more junior levels (only 16 games in AA) and might deemed less ready. But it is a risk.
 
Additions: Baxendale, Jones.
 
Notable non-Rule 5 Draft-eligible at A+ and above:
 
Starters:
 
Stephen Gonsalves (L) 7/8/1994 A+/AA, 2016: 2.06 ERA, 1.021 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 career: 2.13 ERA, 1.072 WHIP, 9.7 K/9
Tyler Jay (L) 4/19/1994 A+/AA, 2016: 3.33 ERA, 1.231 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 career: 3.44 ERA, 1.265 WHIP, 8.7 K/9
Kohl Stewart ®, 10/7/1994, A+/AA, 2016: 2.88 ERA, 1.343 WHIP, 5.7 K/9 career: 2.84 ERA, 1.284 WHIP, 5.9 K/9
 
Relievers:
 
Nick Burdi ®, 1/19/1993, AA, 2016: shut down after 3 games, career: 3.72 ERA, 1.322 WHIP, 12.6 K/9
Trevor Hildenberger ®, 12/15/1990, AA/A+, 2016: 0.75 ERA, 0.792 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 career: 1.47 ERA, 0.823 WHIP, 10.5 K/9
Jake Reed ®, 9/29/1992, AAA/AA, 2016: 3.57 ERA, 1.175 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 career: 3.47 ERA, 1.130 WHIP, 8.8 K/9
Michael Theophanopoulos (L), 8/5/1992, A/A+, 2016: 2.20 ERA, 1.163 WHIP, 11.6 K/9 career: 3.29 ERA, 1.351 WHIP, 10.5 K/9
 
As with the position players, all of the above, in addition to several Rule 5-eligible players who will remain with the Twins but not added to the roster, and hopefully several new young good players should be invited to the Twins 2017 Spring Training.
 
This leaves the modified Twins 40-man roster with 34 (33 (*) if Perkins is on the 60-day DL) spots and 6 (or 7) openings, which are enough for the Twins to be flexible in targeting acquisitions in trades and potentially shopping the Rule 5 draft and the waiver wire (and a reminder that they have the right of first refusal, because of the worst record in the majors, for both.) Here is the modified roster:
 
DJ Baxendale 12/8/1990 (RHRP)
Jose Berrios 5/27/1994 (RHSP)
Byron Buxton 12/18/1993 (CF)
Juan Centeno 11/16/1989 ©
J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990 (RHRP)
Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990 (RHRP)
Mitch Garver, 1/1/1991 ©
Zach Granite, 9/17/1992 (OF)
Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 (RHSP)
Zack Jones 12/4/1990 (RHRP)
Felix Jorge 1/2/1994 (RHSP)
Niko Goodrum, 2/28/1992 (SS/3B/CF)
Max Kepler 2/10/1993 (RF)
Yorman Landa 6/11/1994 (RHRP)
Pat Light 3/29/1991 (RHRP)
Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 (1B/DH)
Trevor May 9/23/1989 (RHSP)
Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993 (LHSP)
Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991 (LHRP)
Amaurys Minier, 1/20/1996 (1B/OF)
John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991 ©
Daniel Palka, 10/28/1991 (OF)
Byungho Park 7/10/1986 (1B/DH)
Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 (LHRP) (*)
Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993 (SS)
Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990 (LHRP)
Fernando Romero 12/24/1994(RHSP)
Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991 (LF)
Randy Rosario 5/18/1994 (LHRP)
Miguel Sano 5/11/1993 (3B)
Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990 (1B/DH)
Engelb Vielma, 6/22/1994 (SS)
Adam Walker 10/18/1991 (OF/DH)
Jason Wheeler 10/27/1990 (LHSP)
 
 
Next installment will be a critical view of the roster, assessing weaknesses and looking for potential positions that the Twins should target this off-season.

After a historically bad season that resulted in the worst record of the Franchise in its current location, Twins' about to be minted (as soon as Cleveland's season is over) new chief baseball officer, Derek Falvey, will have his hands full in turning this team around. I hope that he has enough flexibility to do a true rebuild. And a true rebuild is to find enough young talented players that will reach their primes together, and then supplemented by star veterans to close holes as necessary, will compete for a long time.
 
Looking at the Twins' young talent and how their 40-man roster for 2017 should be built, young is an operating word. Here is the current Twins' 40-man roster by age groups: a. Players who will be 26 and younger on 1/1/2017 who should be part of the rebuilt; b. players who will be 28 or older who really do not belong in a rebuilding team, since they will be past their primes when the new Twins' core will reach their primes, and; c. players who are in-between. The 27 year olds:
 
The listing is alphabetical with birthdays
 
Andrew Albers 10/6/1985
James Beresford 1/19/1989
Jose Berrios 5/27/1994
Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988
Byron Buxton 12/18/1993
Juan Centeno 11/16/1989
J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990
Pat Dean 5/25/1989
Brian Dozier 5/15/1987
Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990
Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989
Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987
Robbie Grossman 9/16/1989
Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 (60-day DL)
Max Kepler 2/10/1993
Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984
Yorman Landa 6/11/1994
Pat Light 3/29/1991
Joe Mauer 4/19/1983
Trevor May 9/23/1989
Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993
Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991
Tommy Milone 2/16/1987
John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991
Ryan O'Rourke 4/30/1988
Byungho Park 7/10/1986
Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 (60-day DL)
Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986
Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988
Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993
Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990
Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991
Randy Rosario 5/18/1994
Ervin Santana 12/12/1982
Hector Santiago 12/16/1987
Miguel Sano 5/11/1993
Logan Schafer 9/8/1986
Kurt Suzuki 10/4/1983
Michael Tonkin 11/19/1989
Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990
Adam Walker 10/18/1991
Alex Wimmers 11/1/1988
 
 
These 42 players sorted in the 3 age groups:
 
Young enough:
 
Jose Berrios 5/27/1994
Byron Buxton 12/18/1993
J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990
Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990
Max Kepler 2/10/1993
Yorman Landa 6/11/1994
Pat Light 3/29/1991
Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993
Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991
John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991
Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993
Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990
Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991
Randy Rosario 5/18/1994
Miguel Sano 5/11/1993
Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990
Adam Walker 10/18/1991
 
Too old:
 
Andrew Albers 10/6/1985
Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988
Brian Dozier 5/15/1987
Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987
Phil Hughes 6/24/86
Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984
Joe Mauer 4/19/1983
Tommy Milone 2/16/1987
Ryan O'Rourke 4/30/1988
Byungho Park 7/10/1986
Glen Perkins 3/2/83
Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986
Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988
Ervin Santana 12/12/1982
Hector Santiago 12/16/1987
Logan Schafer 9/8/1986
Kurt Suzuki 10/4/1983
Alex Wimmers 11/1/1988
 
In between:
 
James Beresford 1/19/1989
Juan Centeno 11/16/1989
Pat Dean 5/25/1989
Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989
Robbie Grossman 9/16/1989
Trevor May 9/23/1989
Michael Tonkin 11/19/1989
 
 
Let's look at the in between and see who could potentially offer value:
 
James Beresford 1/19/1989
Juan Centeno 11/16/1989
Pat Dean 5/25/1989
Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989
Robbie Grossman 9/16/1989
Trevor May 9/23/1989
Michael Tonkin 11/19/1989
 
Centeno, Escobar, and May can provide some value. Centeno who might be the weakest of the 3, has options, so he does not preclude the team . So they stay. Beresford, Dean, Grossman, and Tonkin are designated for assignment.
 
New Keeper list (with positions) :
 
Jose Berrios 5/27/1994 (SP)
Byron Buxton 12/18/1993 (CF)
Juan Centeno 11/16/1989 ©
J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990 (RP)
Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990 (RP)
Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989 (IF)
Max Kepler 2/10/1993 (RF)
Yorman Landa 6/11/1994 (RP)
Pat Light 3/29/1991 (RP)
Trevor May 9/23/1989 (SP)
Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993 (SP)
Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991 (RP)
John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991 ©
Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993 (SS)
Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990 (RP)
Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991 (LF)
Randy Rosario 5/18/1994 (RP)
Miguel Sano 5/11/1993 (3B)
Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990 (1B)
Adam Walker 10/18/1991 (OF/DH)
 
Up to 20 total and most positions of the diamond taken care off.
 
Let's have a close look to the ones who are too old to belong to a rebuilding team, look into their contract situation, and add potential value to a trade partner:
 
Andrew Albers 10/6/1985 - no value
Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988 - maybe some value, one option left
Brian Dozier 5/15/1987 - signed until 2018, $15M owed, career season, strong value
Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987 - arbitration eligible, some value
Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 - signed until 2019, $39.6M owed, major surgery
Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984 - arbitration eligible, some value
Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 - signed until 2018, $46M owed, declining
Tommy Milone 2/16/1987 - abitration eligible, no value
Ryan O'Rourke 4/30/1988 - no value
Byungho Park 7/10/1986 - signed until 2019, $9.3M owed, major investment
Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 - signed until 2017, $7.2M owed
Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986 - arbitration eligible, some value
Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988 - arbitration eligible, some value
Ervin Santana 12/12/1982 - signed until 2018 + option, $28M owed, close to career season, strong value
Hector Santiago 12/16/1987 - arbitration eligible, medium value
Logan Schafer 9/8/1986 - no value
Kurt Suzuki 10/4/1983 - free agent
Alex Wimmers 11/1/1988 - no value
 
The ones who do not have value, should go. Suzuki will depart as a free agent, Albers, O'Rourke, Schafer, and Wimmers are designated for assignment, Milone is not offered arbitration. The list trims to:
 
 
Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988 - maybe some value, one option left
Brian Dozier 5/15/1987 - signed until 2018, $15M owed, career season, strong value
Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987 - arbitration eligible, some value
Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 - signed until 2019, $39.6M owed, major surgery
Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984 - arbitration eligible, some value
Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 - signed until 2018, $46M owed, declining
Byungho Park 7/10/1986 - signed until 2019, $9.3M owed, major investment
Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 - signed until 2017, $7.2M owed, might not pitch again
Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986 - arbitration eligible, some value
Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988 - arbitration eligible, some value
Ervin Santana 12/12/1982 - signed until 2018 + option, $28M owed, close to career season, strong value
Hector Santiago 12/16/1987 - arbitration eligible, medium value
 
The 3 players with most value, Ervin Santana, Brian Dozier, and Hector Santiago should be traded, and the Twins will receive value back, as there will be takers. The remaining players are in two lists: the arbitration-eligible, and team control players with some value, and the under contract with major questionmarks. The players in those 2 lists represent 2 opposite sides of the same coin
 
The arbitration, and team control eligible players:
 
Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988 - maybe some value, one option left
Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987 - arbitration eligible, some value
Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984 - arbitration eligible, some value
Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986 - arbitration eligible, some value
Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988 - arbitration eligible, some value
 
The Twins should try to trade these players and package them with Dozier, Santana, and Santiago to receive better value. If no team values them enough to trade for them, the Twins should let them go. So trade or non-tendering (of DFA in Bosher's situation,) all 5 will not be Twins in 2017.
 
Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 - signed until 2019, $39.6M owed, major surgery
Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 - signed until 2018, $46M owed, declining
Byungho Park 7/10/1986 - signed until 2019, $9.3M owed,+ $13M investment
Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 - signed until 2017, $7.2M owed, might not pitch again
 
The Twins are stuck with these 4 players. These contracts and their injury or aging situations make them undesirable for any team. The best case scenario for the Twins is that they all return healthy in 2017, start the season with the team and build enough value to be tradeable during the season. Perkins will likely not be ready and the Twins have the luxury to add him to the 60-day DL in the beginning of the reason and bring him back slowly if healthy though a series of minor league rehabs, so there is some flexibility there.
 
So from today's 40-man roster, only the following 24 players (and potentially 23 effectively with a Perkins to the 60-day DL (*) senario) will be there this off-season:
 
Jose Berrios 5/27/1994 (SP)
Byron Buxton 12/18/1993 (CF)
Juan Centeno 11/16/1989 ©
J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990 (RP)
Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990 (RP)
Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 (SP)
Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989 (IF)
Max Kepler 2/10/1993 (RF)
Yorman Landa 6/11/1994 (RP)
Pat Light 3/29/1991 (RP)
Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 (1B/DH)
Trevor May 9/23/1989 (SP)
Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993 (SP)
Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991 (RP)
John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991 ©
Byungho Park 7/10/1986 (1B/DH)
Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 (RP) (*)
Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993 (SS)
Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990 (RP)
Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991 (LF)
Randy Rosario 5/18/1994 (RP)
Miguel Sano 5/11/1993 (3B)
Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990 (1B/DH)
Adam Walker 10/18/1991 (OF/DH)
 
This would allow the Twins 16 spots to add several of their prospects for 2017 auditions as well as a good flexibility to include several trade returns. This list is light on starting pitchers , but the assumption is that they will be targeted in trades and that their number will get supplemented by one or more of the existing prospects in the system. One note. It is obvious that the Twins are heavy on the DH position. Park, Mauer, and Vargas can rotate in the first base and DH role, with the ability to have either both lefties or righties, with Vargas being an switch hitter, in a platoon situation, depending on opposing pitchers. Which means that Adam Walker should be available in a trade at this point.
 
In the next article of this series will look at who of the existing prospects should move in the 40-man roster to either protect them from the draft or to supplement the MLB-level talent.

Let me preface what will undoubtedly be a long entry by saying I am a Dozier fan. I have spoken to him at Spring Training a couple of times and like the young man. I believe he has been the Twins MVP for each of the last four seasons (counting this one) and I have no doubt that he is the team's best player at this point. Certainly, he isn't flawless, but the Twins need more players like Brian Dozier, not less.
 
Over the course of this long, horrible season, Brian Dozier has often been a hot topic of conversation in Twins Territory. He isn't shy about stepping up to a microphone, my wife and daughters think he's good-looking and he's been a regular with the club as their second baseman for four years. If someone casually follows the Twins, they know who Dozier is, so it figures that he would be a topic of conversation.
 
Let's see why Dozier has been discussed so much and what I think should be the conclusion for the topic: First of all, as the Twins started the season, Dozier couldn't get it going. After a bad second half in 2015, Dozier came out of the gate slow in 2016. Through all of April and May, Dozier barely reached .200 and the signature power was lacking. Had the league figured him out? Was the 28 year old (turned 29 in mid-May) regressing already? Should he be benched or put at the bottom of the order? My thought, then and now, was that it is a long season. If a guy is a good player, he'll come out of a funk. Robbie Cano had a similar stretch at the end of 2014 and beginning of 2015 and Cano might be a Hall-of-Famer. Along for the ride early in the season was the question whether BD was too pull-happy and if he used the whole field, he would be a more consistent and productive hitter. My thought was that Dozier needed to be able to hit the ball with authority when he was pitched away and as the season has progressed, he has accumulated some oppo hits and several to the middle of the field, the key being that he hit the ball hard, not a lazy popup or routine fly ball.
 
Moving on, Dozier has spent most of the season hitting #1 or #2. Many have thought it wasn't ideal for a guy whose calling card is big power for his position to hit first or second. My thought then was that the Twins simply didn't have a better option. Dozier takes some of the longest at-bats on the team, he's walked a fair amount since arriving in the majors and he's a good base runner who doesn't clog the bases for those behind him. Ideally, he should have hit lower in the order to make a few more of his homers multi-run shots and I think that where Dozier hits in the lineup in 2017 will be a hot controversial topic if he is in a Twins' uniform next year.
 
As the season rolled toward the All-Star break, the call to sell and rebuild the Twins included Dozier's name prominently. He had some value and the club is/was going nowhere in '16, so cashier him for a prospect or two and let Jorge Polanco handle second base. In June and July, Dozier recovered from his slow start. He put up a great line in June, posting an OPS for the month in excess of 1.000, he slowed in July, hitting only .240 but still putting up an OPS of .824. Trade Dozier at the deadline? Didn't happen and IMHO shouldn't have happened. He hasn't slowed down much since his monster June and with a team-friendly contract and relative youth, his value should only be higher in the off-season or at next year's trade deadline.
 
Another topic that has emerged is defense. After a truly stout year in 2013, Dozier's defense has been categorized as below average by most metrics. While I don't believe Dozier is elite defensively, my eyes tell me he is in the average range. He makes a few outstanding plays (probably more than any other Twins player) and doesn't get to some balls he should, perhaps because of shifting, maybe because the position of shortstop has been in flux since he became a second baseman, maybe because in three of the last four years, the team never had a shot at contention. I don't know. In checking BB Ref, Dozier lags in zone rating, but is above average in runs saved. I see it as a wash, making Dozier average in the field. I'm waiting for someone to refute this, but in the final analysis, defense probably is an "eyes of the beholder" topic.
 
Since the All-Star break, Brian Dozier has been en fuego. He's hitting .320, with an OPS of 1.091 and a mlb-leading 21 homers. I guess that puts to rest the "first half player" meme that was circulating among the diehard fans remaining. The question that stems from his performance both the cold April and May and his elite performance since is what to expect going forward. I have turned over in my mind what the most likely trajectory of Dozier's career figures to be. One extreme is Dan Uggla, who like Dozier wasn't highly regarded, got a chance in his mid-twenties and became a star in large part because of his power numbers. Uggla fell off a cliff in his early thirties. An opposing example is Jeff Kent. Kent was an okay player, but not even a full-time regular until he was 29. Starting from age 30, Kent won an MVP, was an All-Star five times with three different teams and posted OPS+ numbers over 119 every year until he was 39. This seems to be the extremes for power-hitting second basemen. Is Dozier going to be productive for most of another decade or is regression going to meet him around his 30th birthday? My answer is that no one knows for sure. It appears to me that Dozier has made adjustments to become a more complete hitter without diminishing his best asset--home run power. IMHO, it makes him a candidate to sustain high-end performance, although the end of 2015 and April-May of this year give a good argument that he could turn into a pumpkin at any time.
 
In the last few weeks as the tumult in my life has moved Twins baseball on the back burner, I've managed to check the box scores, cluck over the disastrous pitching and watch highlights of games. Dozier has been front and center continuing his power surge. He now projects to exceed 40 homers and if he hits just one more long ball, he will have hit more in a single season than any Twin since Harmon in 1970. 40 homers would be a Top Ten season in franchise history dating back to the Senators who started playing at the turn of the 20th century. Only Harmon and Roy Sievers (once) have ever hit 40 homers in a single season in franchise history. Dozier is projected to score and drive in over 100 runs, also a rare feat, especially for guy who has hit first or second most of the season. He may or may not make 40 homers, 100 RBI or 100 runs, but on such a bad team those numbers stand out big and bold. Although I'm not a big fan of WAR, it does represent a quick and dirty assessment of value and Dozier's 5.6 WAR for this season is in the Top Ten in the league. Because the season has been so bad, I don't think Dozier has gotten the attention he deserves for his huge season. He won't win a Silver Slugger or MVP, he won't win the HR championship or set any other records, so there hasn't been any national coverage, but his overall season and particularly his production since June has been off the charts.
 
Now in the season's final month, most Twins fans are thinking about the future (with good reason). Augmenting a terrible rotation is Priority One and trading Brian Dozier to get pitching help makes sense, since his value should be at an all-time high. This argument is buttressed by the play of Polanco, who has hit over .300, showing good on-base skills, but a questionable glove at short or third. I believe Jorge Polanco is best suited to second base and I believe adding him for Dozier wouldn't be all bad since Polanco is a switch hitter and wouldn't be prone to long slumps with his swing and approach. However, unless the payoff is monumental, Brian Dozier should be the Twins second baseman next year. He has had a season for the ages despite the wreckage around him, he's only 29 and if the last 100 days are an indication, he might get even better. Finally, he's been a solid citizen off the field. If the club wants somebody as the face of the franchise, they could do worse than Mr. Dozier.
 
Just a couple more thoughts before I summarize--Dozier has been durable. Since becoming the team's second baseman, he hasn't been disabled and has missed only a handful of games with injuries. Secondly, my observation is that he is a good teammate. He doesn't sulk, cheers for his mates, appears to like their company off the field (loved the State Fair video) and despite having strong religious views, doesn't put that in the face of his teammates or the media.
 
I have mentioned many of these thoughts in previous threads on the forums of Twins Daily. I find this player to be fascinating, especially in light of his minor league career and low status when drafted. I think Brian Dozier is a fine player who hasn't gotten the appreciation he deserves for this, his best season. I will continue to be a Dozier fan, hopefully as he continues to be a Minnesota Twin, but even if he's traded. In the event that he is traded, I will be pulling for the players acquired in return and hope they make the Twins better.

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
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As the Minnesota Twins are evaluating their front office, I would like to take the opportunity to objectively evaluate the performance of certain parts of their front office for which there might be appropriate objective evaluation criteria. Deron Johnson, the Twins scouting director since 2008, who came into the organization when the dearly departed Terry Ryan became the General Manager in 1994, as a regional scout, has been primarily responsible for the Rule 4 amateur draft. There is a feeling that the Twins do not draft and develop players well. But drafting and developing are two different things, and need to see how each of them might be performing against the rest of the league.
 
How has Johnson done against the league, in the draft?
 
Here is the data: I looked at the overall WAR for each team for each draft for all players selected by that team in the first 10 rounds of that draft. Calculated the average WAR for each draft and the teams better are indicated with green. The teams are listed alphabetically and the Twins are bolded. Averages in yellow indicate small sample size, because simply not enough players made it to the bigs in the last few seasons to make any conclusions, but the ones who made it, count to the total team WAR numbers, since Deron Johnson was responsible for the Twins draft.
 

 
Long story short:
 
During the time that Johnson has been in charge of the Twins draft the Twins did better than only 6 other teams in the league: The Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies and the Rangers who all are willing to open their wallets and buy players drafted and developed by others and, surprisingly, the Rays, who are more than willing to sell everyone high to restock their system with players that other teams drafted to develop. The Twins do neither, so that it a pretty big problem. And yes Deron Johnson has been performing way below average, and D students should go home...
 
Few notes:

This is pretty interesting data about where the Twins can look to stock their front office. Surprisingly, the Diamondbacks', Padres', Jays', White Sox', and Nationals' systems might be good sources of scouting talent to replace at least Deron and some of his scouts.
If it were not for 2009 where Dozier and Gibson account for most of the Twins' WAR, the numbers would be really pathetic.
If you look at teams like the White Sox, that have had the fourth best draft WAR in the period and really nothing to show about it in the majors, you can make easy conclusions about problems with their development and management systems
Yes, there are up and downs in most teams, but with the Twins other than 2009, it has been mostly downs, and the other teams, have done something about it (replacing under-performing Front Office pieces.) Will the Twins have the guts to do the same?

Last month, I compiled a list of my top five players who should be promoted. A little more than a month later, all five of those prospects have either been promoted or, in J.T. Chargois’ case, spent time at the next level. With those promotions, I thought it would be a good idea to give an updated list, so here is an updated version of my top five prospects who should be promoted:
 
5. Trevor Hildenberger, RP, Chattanooga
 
I debated whether or not I should include Hildenberger on this list for the simple fact that he has only been in Chattanooga for two months. However, in those two months, he has been nothing short of dominant for the Lookouts. With Chattanooga, he has thrown 28.1 innings and has only allowed three runs on 15 hits for an ERA of just 0.95. He started the season in high-A Fort Myers and allowed one run in 9.1 innings, but he has elevated his game to another level. After allowing an opponents batting average of .282 with the Miracle early in the season, he has allowed teams to hit at just .156 clip since the move up to Double-A. His WHIP is also outstanding at 0.67 and he has a strikeouts per nine innings rate of 9.8. His walks per nine innings is also solid at 1.3. I don’t know if they would promote him so shortly after being at Double-A for only two months, but I would expect him to be promoted to Triple-A Rochester by the end of the season.
 
4. Tyler Jay, SP, Fort Myers
 
After going six starts with only allowing three runs combined, Jay has allowed eight in his previous eight innings (two starts). But still, he has done enough to be able to be promoted to Chattanooga. Jay has had two starts where he was hammered, which has inflated his ERA. His ERA is still a very solid 3.02, but has allowed 11 earned runs combined in two starts and 11 in the other 10 starts. His opponents batting average is .247, which needs to improve, as does his WHIP of 1.22. He still has a bit of work to do, but he deserves a promotion. Since he was a reliever at Illinois, Jay will be on an innings limit this year, so he could move up to Chattanooga and be in the bullpen.
 
3. Sam Clay, SP, Cedar Rapids
 
Clay has struggled recently, having allowed 19 earned runs in his last six starts (28.1 innings) after having given up just five earned runs in his first 41 innings this season. That raised his ERA by two full runs. Perhaps his recent struggles is the reason that Fernando Romero was promoted before him. Maybe Miles Nordgren could pass him up too, but as of right now, I have Clay here. His opponent’s batting average is .226, which is solid, and his 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings rate is good as well. His WHIP of 1.33 needs to improve, as does his poor 4.7 walks per nine innings rate. He could move up to Fort Myers, along with Nordgren if both Jorge and Jay are promoted by the end of the season, which seems likely.
 
2. Felix Jorge, SP, Fort Myers
 
Despite only being on Fort Myers for this year, it is about time to move up Jorge. He is destroying High-A right now. He has not allowed more than three runs in any one start this season, and he has allowed three in just one start. Jorge is coming off a start in which he had a season-high 10 strikeouts against Palm Beach. His strikeouts per nine innings rate is less than ideal at 7.7, but in every other statistic, Jorge dominates. He has an opponents batting average of .224 and a terrific 0.94 WHIP. He has also only allowed just three home runs on the year and his walks per nine innings rate is just 1.2. His 1.67 ERA leads the entire Twins system, so I expect Jorge to be in Chattanooga by the end of the season.
 
1. J.T. Chargois, RP, Rochester
 
While Chargois did make an appearance with the big league club last month, that stay lasted only three days and he only made one appearance......and it did not go well. However, many players who went onto nice careers were shelled in their debuts. I believe he has earned another stint with the Twins, especially since their bullpen is a dumpster fire. Since being optioned back to Rochester, Chargois has picked up right where he left off. Since being recalled, he has allowed one run in nine innings. His opponent’s batting average is still very good at .190 and he has a WHIP of 0.94. He still has a strikeouts per nine innings rate of an impressive 11.8. With the Twins out of contention and in need of bullpen help, Chargois needs to be recalled so the big league club knows what they have in him to see if he will be a big part of future plans.

The pitchers and catchers for the Minnesota Twins have finally reported to Spring Training and position players are already filtering into the Fort Myers camp in advance of their mandatory reporting day later this week. The Twins will open their season in Baltimore on April 4, but from all that’s being written about the Twins, it appears there are only minor questions about the composition of the Opening Day roster and even less question about the Opening Day lineup.
 
Manager Paul Molitor has stated that Kurt Suzuki will open the season as his club’s starting catcher.
 
Joe Mauer will be the first baseman.
 
Brian Dozier will hold down second base.
 
Trevor Plouffe will man the hot corner at third base.
 
Eduardo Escobar has earned the right to call the shortstop spot his own.
 
Eddie Rosario will be the Twins’ left fielder and Miguel Sano will man the opposite corner in right field.
 
Centerfield is Byron Buxton’s to lose. Yes, there’s a chance the club will decide Buxton needs a month or so in Rochester to fine tune his approach at the plate, giving an opportunity for Danny Santana, Ryan Sweeney, Darin Mastroianni or Joe Benson to serve as a short-term placeholder for Buxton.
 
And then there’s the designator hitter position, which will belong to Byung Ho Park, the Korean slugger that represents the primary (some would say only) significant free agent addition added to the Twins this offseason.
 
(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)
 
Most of that makes perfect sense to me. I think Buxton should go north with the club in April as the centerfielder, but if he doesn’t, I’ll understand the decision (probably) and I’ve actually been on-board with the decision to give Sano an outfielder’s glove and see what he can do with it. I felt that way even before the Twins got Park’s autograph on a contract.
 
But here’s something I don’t quite understand. Why is virtually everyone so certain that Park will immediately adapt to Major League pitching well enough to be penciled into the middle of the Twins’ batting order right from the start of the new season?
 
Certainly, I'm not alone in feeling that either Oswaldo Arcia or Kennys Vargas is likely to demonstrate in March that he is better prepared to generate runs for the Twins on Opening Day than newcomer Park might be. Why do many prognosticators seem so certain that Park will be an effective big league hitter on Opening Day while being less convinced that Buxton will?
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Arcia2015ST-600x400.jpg
Oswaldo Arcia (Photo by SD Buhr)

I want to see Park succeed as much as any Twins fan but maybe I’m suffering from residual Nishioka flashbacks, because I’m simply not convinced that a player that struck out a lot against Korean Baseball Organization pitching will have immediate success against Major Leaguers.
 
Does the KBO compare favorably to American AA or AAA levels? Maybe. Let's say, for the sake of argument, that it does. If Park had struck out 303 times at any minor league level over the past two combined seasons, would we be writing his name in ink into the Twins' Opening Day lineup now?
 
If you forced me to bet an amount of money that it would genuinely hurt me to lose, I would bet that Park’s first regular season professional baseball uniform will have “Red Wings” (or even “Lookouts”) emblazoned across the front of it - and I would not consider that to necessarily mean his acquisition was a mistake. It shouldn’t be surprising to anyone if it takes Park a few weeks or more to earn a spot in the Twins’ lineup.
 
Arcia and Vargas both must be coming to Fort Myers aware that their respective futures with the Twins are hanging in the balance. I expect that one of them is more likely to be found in Molitor’s first lineup card of the season than Park is.
 
Finally, what happens if the Sano experiment doesn’t develop the way that the Twins hope it will? That would immediately make Sano the likely Day 1 designated hitter and force the Twins into a Plan B for right field. That would be a Plan B that the front office has not admitted even exists yet.
 
In that eventuality, again Arcia becomes a likely candidate for reinsertion into the club’s plans as the right fielder.
 
Park has a better than fair chance of finding his way up to Target Field with the Twins at some point during the 2016 season, but I’m not at all convinced he’ll start the season with the big club.
 
Here’s my pre-camp projection for the Twins’ Opening Day starting lineup:
 
1. Buxton CF
2. Dozier 2B
3. Mauer 1B
4. Sano RF/DH
5. Arcia DH/RF
6. Plouffe 3B
7. Rosario LF
8. Escobar SS
9. Suzuki C
SP Santana
 
Typically, we have to be cautious about reading too much into strong spring training offensive performances. There are too many at-bats against less-than-MLB-level pitchers, especially during the first couple of weeks of spring training games, to get a true reading of just how well prepared a hot hitter might be for a Major League regular’s role.
 
But there are a number of position players who can’t afford to give poor showings during the first few weeks of spring training games and Park, Arcia and Vargas would be among those whose chances could be damaged by early struggles at the plate.
 
Sweeney, Mastroianni and Benson similarly need good starts if they want to be viewed as contenders for the stop-gap centerfielder, should the Twins decide Buxton needs some early seasoning in Rochester.
 
Park, if he doesn’t make the Opening Day lineup, could see an early promotion, as could Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco, depending on their performances and those of the players that they might be looking to replace.
 
The Twins’ lineup is perhaps more settled going into spring training than it has been in most years, but there is some amount of intrigue that will make it worthwhile to pay attention to the box scores coming out of Fort Myers in March.

With camp officially starting in just a couple of days, more and more players are arriving (Milone, Rosario, Benson just to name a few) thus more and more is going on in the backfields. Infielders/Pitchers could be seen fielding grounders on the half field while pitchers were throwing under Hammond Stadium, this day however I was not pulling myself away from the Sano and Arcia outfield drills and workouts on Field Four. It was a definitely a sight to see, defensive outfield drills followed by batting practice, a little over three hours condensed into less than 20 minutes of videos.
The two slugging outfielders, Arcia and Sano, took to the field around 9am and started off with just some simple long tossing. From 120 feet out Miggy shows off a strong accurate arm but as Arcia keeps backing up and increasing their distance, Sano starts to break out the crow hop early to get the ball to Arcia.
Afterwards, Coach Lepel started rolling balls to the outfielders and having them throw it back to the cutoff man at second. It’s one of the more basic fundamentals that all outfielders know how to do to prevent a hitter from taking an extrabase. From the get go Sano was having obvious difficulties especially when compared to Arcia. Miggy was repeatedly charging and throwing as if he was a third baseman. It got to the point where Coach Lepel called the outfielders in to talk to Sano about his technique and even Arcia gave some advice. They returned to the field, where it was solely Sano working over and over again on the technique until he started showing improvement.
The next drill up was a little more challenging in a roller to the glove side then spin and throw to hit the cutoff man. In this task Miguel performed better which I take as he has done it before as an infielder. Next up flyball over the shoulder, spin and throw.
Then Lepel started throwing flyballs straight on with the two throwing to the cutoff man. Once again a basic fundamental that outfielders know how to do: position yourself with forward motion on a catch. Again Sano had issues often catching the ball behind him. Lastly, Sano, Arcia, and Jorge Fernandez took flyballs from a jugs machine in rightfield with the wind blowing in and gusts of 30 mph. In Leftfield, Eddie Rosario, Adam Brett Walker, and Travis Harrison. In Centerfield, Joe Benson, Tyree Davis, Darin Mastroianni.
 

Other Sano notes: there were numerous times Sano could be see massaging and stretching his throwing arm and was asked a few times by Lepel if he was okay. Sano likes to hit, I counted three times in the hour plus of defensive drills where he asked Lepel when are we hitting. Smartly, Lepel used it as a carrot with Baki (sp?) telling him after this drill, nope after this drill. As anyone can see Sano has ALOT to still LEARN to be ready for the outfield on Opening Day. So this puts to rest that Miguel has been practicing his outfield drills this offseason.
 

Finally, it was Sano’s favorite time, hitting in the cage where he did not disappoint. Lifting a few balls but never clearing the fences with the strong wind. Sano likes to hit so much, he jumped Rosario in the batting order. Talk about a murder’s row of a batting practice lineup: Arcia, Sano, Park, Rosario followed by AB Walker, Harrsion, Buck Britton, Mastroianni. Even with all those power bats, Byung Ho Park was the only one to lift a ball through the 30mph gusts blowing in from RF to take it out of the park.
Notes on Arcia, he looked good in the field and if I hadn’t seen him prior I’d think it was more due to fielding with the extremely raw Sano but Oswaldo has worked hard on his defensive game. Namely that first step and working on his reads. On of my favorite things to watch is while he shags in BP, he’s actually putting forth effort runnings routes. In one instance, a flyball off Britton’s bat, Arcia blazed past Sano and caught the would be gapper.
 

 

 

Baseball fans, you've made it. At this point in the winter, the offseason is nearing its conclusion, and you are about to be rewarded with the month long grind that is spring training. For the Minnesota Twins, a team coming off of a breakout season a year ago, there's some key steps to be taken in the month ahead however.
 
As pitchers and catchers embark on sunny Fort Myers, the Twins will soon be in full swing over at the CenturyLink Sports Complex. Now in his second season as manager, Paul Molitor will have a few narratives he needs to force playing out. Should Terry Ryan's relative inactivity this offseason fail to hurt the Twins, it will be because of the internal scenarios making the best of themselves.
 
Here are the key areas of focus for the Twins as they build towards their return to Target Field.
 
Cement for the pen
A season ago, you'd have been hard pressed to find a bigger problem area for Molitor's club than in the relief arms it employed. Going into 2016, the only guarantees in the pen are Glen Perkins and Kevin Jepsen. From there, the expectation would be that Trevor May and Casey Fien are included in the group. Fernando Abad is the likely lefty, and Michael Tonkin is out of options. Ricky Nolasco probably figures into the situation as well. When camp breaks, Minnesota absolutely must have answers in relief.
 
Sano falls smoothly in right
 
Terry Ryan was hesitant to trade Trevor Plouffe, and for good reason. Minnesota held onto their third basemen, and that forced Miguel Sano to find another way into the field. Bringing Byung Ho Park into the fold, just bringing a bat to the park was a thing of the past for the Twins slugger. Now expected to take over for Torii Hunter in right field, Sano needs to make it work. A good athlete, and less than large defensive shoes to fill, Sano could very well succeed in his new role. Down in fort Myers, the Dominican native will need to do everything he can to push himself and get the stumbles out of the way prior to games counting.
 
Have bat, will travel for Byron Buxton
 
The Twins uber prospect Byron Buxton made his big league debut in 2015, and it was anything but ideal. His defensive prowess showed immediately, but his offensive game left Twins brass hoping for mediocrity. In his second big league season, Buxton will need to flash the offensive tools he's displayed on the farm. During spring training, Buxton will need to put balls in play, get on base, and cause havoc on the basepaths. It needs to be a big step forward for baseball's best prospect, and it'll start down in Florida.
 
Welcome Park to the big leagues
 
Terry Ryan shocked much of the baseball world this offseason when his Twins made the winning bid for Korean slugger Byung Ho Park. After two seasons in which he hit a combiner 100+ homers in the KBO, his power has to be his saving grace in the big leagues. Adept with the glove, it's the offense that Minnesota is relying on Park for. His average can dip, and with the strikeouts, it will. Park needs to get a couple of longballs under his belt down in Fort Myers, and his transition to the MLB game needs to happen as smoothly as possible.
 
Non-roster, non-issue
 
Almost more than any other season of memory, the Twins non-roster invitees for 2016 spring training are compiled of a star studded list. From Jose Berrios to Nick Burdi, the group is definitely pitcher heavy this time around. Considering the Twins are looking for front running rotation talent as well as bullpen arms, that's a good situation to be in. Down in Fort Myers, the non-roster guys need to step up. Berrios could do some serious work in regards to pushing himself closer to the 25 man, and Nick Burdi or Jake Reed could begin to force the Twins hand sooner rather than later.
 
Health above everything
 
Although depth is something this Twins team may have more than any other in the past, relying on it early isn't a good plan. Considering there's plenty of position and roster battles that will play out throughout the year, the last thing Paul Molitor wants is to see things decided by injury. Whether on the field or off of it, Minnesota needs to leave the Grapefruit League as healthy as they entered it.
 
The 2016 Minnesota Twins do not need to see all of these key areas play out to perfection to accomplish big things in the year ahead. However, the more they can count on out of the gate, the better chance they'll have to build on what was a successful 2015. We're almost there, and the smell of the freshly cut grass is more than apparent.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
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I am trying something new this year. Instead of summarizing the top 40 Twins' prospects list, I am doing some actual analysis as well, which I believe might be telling for the system.
 
This is the last segment in this series. You can find the introductory segment in this series, including my criteria for eligibility to be a prospect and the list of the 2015 top 40 players who graduated as prospects or are not in the system, here. Here is my 2015 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list (summary of 1-40) for reference.
You can find players 36-40 here, players 31-35 here, players 26-30 here, players 21-25 here, players 16-20 here, players 11-15 here, players 6-10 here, and players 1-5 here.
 
 
Here are the top 40 with position indicated and 2015 rank in parenthesis, along with Estimated Time of Arrival :
 
1. Jose Berrios RHSP (5), 2016
2. Tyler Jay (--) LHSP, 2017
3. Nick Burdi (6) RHRP, 2016
4. Stephen Gonsalves (13) LHSP, 2018
5. Lewin Diaz (9) 1B/DH, 2019
6. JT Chargois (--) RHRP, 2016
7. Wander Javier (--) SS, 2020+
8. Jermaine Palacios (36) SS/3B, 2020
9. Nick Gordon (12) SS, 2019
10. Mitch Garver (17) C, 2017
11. Levi Michael (22), 2B, 2016
12. Mason Melotakis (--), LHRP, 2016
13. Kohl Stewart RHSP (7), 2017
14. Travis Harrison (14), OF/1B, 2017
15. Amaurys Minier (6) OF/1B, 2019
16. Jake Reed (16) RHRP, 2017
17. Lewis Thorpe (11) LHSP, 2019
18. Daniel Palka (--) OF, 2017
19. Adam Walker (21), OF, 2016
20. Felix Jorge (29), RHSP, 2018
21. Rainis Silva (24), C, 2018
22. Jean Carlos Arias (--), CF, 2020
23. Engelb Vielma SS (20), 2017
24. Luis Arraez IF (40), 2019
25. Ryan Eades RHSP (30), 2017
26. Lachlan Wells (--), LHSP, 2020
27. Huascar Ynoa (--), RHSP, 2020
28. Brusdar Graterol (--), RHSP, 2020+
29. Brandon Peterson (27), RHRP, 2017
30. Taylor Rogers (--), LHR/SP, 2016
31. LaMonte Wade (--), CF, 2018
32. Kolton Kendrick (--), 1B/DH, 2020+
33. Chris Paul (--) IF/OF, 2018
34. Fernardo Romero (37), RHSP, 2019
35. Yorman Landa (--), RHRP, 2018
36. Kuo Hua Lo (--), RHRP, 2018
37. Niko Goodrum (--), CF/IF, 2017
38. Travis Blankenhorn (--), 3B/1B, 2020
39. Trey Cabbage (--), IF/OF, 2020+
40. Emmanuel Morel (--) IF, 2020+
 
 
Here is a full list of subtractions from the 2014 off-season list (that ranking in parenthesis) :
 
Graduated: Miguel Sano 3B (1), Jorge Polanco SS (2), Byron Buxton OF (3), Alex Meyer RHP (4), Eddie Rosario OF (8), Max Kepler OF/1B (12)
 
Traded: Chih-Wei Hu RHP (18), Alexis Tapia RHP (25)
 
Released: Tyler Kuresa 1B (38)
 
Retired: Mat Batts LHP (35)
 
Dropped: Jorge Fernandez C (19), Mike Cederoth RHP (23), Max Murphy OF (26), Stuart Turner C (28) , Aaron Slegers RHP (31), Randy Rosario RHP (32), Zach Larson OF (33),Todd Van Steensen RHP (34), Moises Gomez RHP (39)
 
For a total of 19 players, so a good 47.5% turnover from last season
 
 
Here is the list by position:
 
1. Jose Berrios RHSP (5), 2016
13. Kohl Stewart RHSP (7), 2017
20. Felix Jorge (29), RHSP, 2018
25. Ryan Eades RHSP (30), 2017
27. Huascar Ynoa (--), RHSP, 2020
28. Brusdar Graterol (--), RHSP, 2020+
29. Brandon Peterson (27), RHRP, 2017
34. Fernardo Romero (37), RHSP, 2019
 
2. Tyler Jay (--) LHSP, 2017
4. Stephen Gonsalves (13) LHSP, 2018
17. Lewis Thorpe (11) LHSP, 2019
26. Lachlan Wells (--), LHSP, 2020
30. Taylor Rogers (--), LHR/SP, 2016
 
3. Nick Burdi (6) RHRP, 2016
6. JT Chargois (--) RHRP, 2016
16. Jake Reed (16) RHRP, 2017
35. Yorman Landa (--), RHRP, 2018
36. Kuo Hua Lo (--), RHRP, 2018
 
12. Mason Melotakis (--), LHRP, 2016
 
10. Mitch Garver (17) C, 2017
21. Rainis Silva (24), C, 2018
 
5. Lewin Diaz (9) 1B/DH, 2019
32. Kolton Kendrick (--), 1B/DH, 2020+
33. Chris Paul (--) IF/OF, 2018
38. Travis Blankenhorn (--), 3B/1B, 2020
39. Trey Cabbage (--), IF/OF, 2020+
 
11. Levi Michael (22), 2B, 2016
24. Luis Arraez IF (40), 2019
40. Emmanuel Morel (--) IF, 2020+
 
7. Wander Javier (--) SS, 2020+
8. Jermaine Palacios (36) SS/3B, 2020
9. Nick Gordon (12) SS, 2019
23. Engelb Vielma SS (20), 2017
 
14. Travis Harrison (14), OF/1B, 2017
15. Amaurys Minier (6) OF/1B, 2019
18. Daniel Palka (--) OF, 2017
19. Adam Walker (21), OF, 2016
22. Jean Carlos Arias (--), CF, 2020
31. LaMonte Wade (--), CF, 2018
37. Niko Goodrum (--), CF/IF, 2017
 
Clearly Catcher and LHRP are the weakest positions as far as quality prospects go. As far as LHRPs, some of the starters in this list, primarily Taylor Rogers and Lachlan Wells, could end up as relievers. As far as catchers go, John Hicks, who is ineligible for this list, will likely be the first one called up if need arises. Stuart Turner, who dropped from the list, is about a season or two away and Carlos Paulino, who did not make this list, can also help this season if needed. Definitely Catcher is a position in need and one the Twins should probably target at some point.
 
Here is the list broken down by ETA:
 
1. Jose Berrios RHSP (5), 2016
3. Nick Burdi (6) RHRP, 2016
6. JT Chargois (--) RHRP, 2016
11. Levi Michael (22), 2B, 2016
12. Mason Melotakis (--), LHRP, 2016
19. Adam Walker (21), OF, 2016
30. Taylor Rogers (--), LHR/SP, 2016
 
2. Tyler Jay (--) LHSP, 2017
10. Mitch Garver (17) C, 2017
13. Kohl Stewart RHSP (7), 2017
14. Travis Harrison (14), OF/1B, 2017
16. Jake Reed (16) RHRP, 2017
18. Daniel Palka (--) OF, 2017
23. Engelb Vielma SS (20), 2017
25. Ryan Eades RHSP (30), 2017
29. Brandon Peterson (27), RHRP, 2017
37. Niko Goodrum (--), CF/IF, 2017
 
4. Stephen Gonsalves (13) LHSP, 2018
20. Felix Jorge (29), RHSP, 2018
21. Rainis Silva (24), C, 2018
31. LaMonte Wade (--), CF, 2018
33. Chris Paul (--) IF/OF, 2018
35. Yorman Landa (--), RHRP, 2018
36. Kuo Hua Lo (--), RHRP, 2018
 
5. Lewin Diaz (9) 1B/DH, 2019
9. Nick Gordon (12) SS, 2019
17. Lewis Thorpe (11) LHSP, 2019
15. Amaurys Minier (6) OF/1B, 2019
24. Luis Arraez IF (40), 2019
34. Fernardo Romero (37), RHSP, 2019
 
7. Wander Javier (--) SS, 2020+
8. Jermaine Palacios (36) SS/3B, 2020
22. Jean Carlos Arias (--), CF, 2020
26. Lachlan Wells (--), LHSP, 2020
27. Huascar Ynoa (--), RHSP, 2020
28. Brusdar Graterol (--), RHSP, 2020+
32. Kolton Kendrick (--), 1B/DH, 2020+
38. Travis Blankenhorn (--), 3B/1B, 2020
39. Trey Cabbage (--), IF/OF, 2020+
40. Emmanuel Morel (--) IF, 2020+
 
Even though six out of the top 12 prospects from the 2014 list have already graduated, it is great to see that there is a good pipeline of top 15 talent MLB-ready (ETA 2016) and close to MLB-ready (ETA 2017) in a variety of positions. The Long Term (ETA 2018, 2019-2020+) is sure to change and some of those players might move up the ranks and might arrive faster than it is thought. It is also certain that additional players not on the list (or even in the organization) today, will be able to be top contributors from 2018-2020. Another impressive and even serendipitous situation is that the Twins' weakest point, the bullpen, likely has the strongest immediate and short term pipeline.
 
Looking forward to see these prospects play this Spring and throughout the season. It has been some work, but very enjoyable work for me to do these lists.
 
http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5152/7098789651_02fb66b359_z.jpg

Ranking prospects within an organization is no easy task. The internet has opened up a wave of new information for writers as they can analyze video, sort through higher-level statistics, and prioritize scouting reports from a plethora of experts. This level of information can be overwhelming at times but it helps to separate prospects at different levels.
 
One of my favorite parts of working on the 2016 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook is looking at the old prospect lists from yesteryear. It's entertaining to see some of the players that were once thought of as being near the top of the Twins organization. Seth's lists go further back than Jeremy and I and that can be even more entertaining. His 2008 Top-4 Twins prospects included Deolis Guerra, Tyler Robertson, Anthony Swarzak, and Kevin Mulvey.
 
I started my blog in the spring of 2010 so my first prospect list was for the 2011 season. There are some very familiar names on the list and some other names that have disappeared from the baseball world. "Where Are They Now?" will help to find out how these top prospects are doing at this point in their careers.
 
1. Miguel Sano, 3B
2015 Team (Level): Minnesota Twins (MLB), Chattanooga Lookouts (AA)
Entering the 2011 season, Sano was just coming off his first professional action in the Dominican Summer League and the Gulf Coast League. I already had high hopes for the young slugger even though he only had just over 200 ABs under his belt. In 2015, Sano made his big league debut and finished in third place in the AL Rookie of the Year balloting. He was named the Minnesota Twins team MVP even though he only played half of a season. Next season will be his first full season at the big leagues and his future looks bright.
 
2. Kyle Gibson
2015 Team (Level): Minnesota Twins (MLB)
The Twins had been aggressive with Gibson back in 2010. He pitched at three different levels from High-A all the way up to Triple-A. Using his college experience, Gibson had pitched well with an ERA under 3.00 and most Twins prospect lists had him as one of the top choices entering the 2011 campaign. This past season Gibson was named the team's best starting pitcher after he lead the team in most statistical categories. He had to overcome Tommy John surgery and some struggles at the big league level but he has established himself as one of the Twins best pitchers before his 28th birthday.
 
3. Aaron Hicks
2015 Team (Level): Minnesota Twins (MLB), Rochester Red Wings (AAA)
Hopes were still high for Hicks following the 2010 season as he had established himself as one of the best prospects in the game. Baseball America had Hicks as the 19th best prospect in baseball and Baseball Prospectus had him ranked 26th. Since that time, Hicks would put together other strong seasons in the minor but his MLB time was a little underwhelming. For the 2015 campaign, he made subtle strides on the offensive side of the ball and his defense continues to be strong. The Twins traded Hicks to the New York Yankees this offseason for catcher John Ryan Murphy.
 
4. Joe Benson
2015 Team (Level): Gwinnett Braves (AAA), Binghamton Mets (AA)
After the Twins took Benson with their second round pick in 2006, he had established himself as one of the team's top prospects. He had hit 27 home runs between Double-A and High-A before being asked to play in the Arizona Fall League. Benson would debut with the Twins in 2011 but he has yet to be back to the big league level. He's bounced around from organization to organization including the Rangers, Marlins, Mets, and Braves. Last year, he played the entire season at Triple-A with the Braves and he hit .248/.351/.361. Minnesota signed Benson as a minor league free agent so he will be back in the organization for the 2016 campaign.
 
5. Alex Wimmers
2015 Team (Level): Chattanooga Lookouts (AA)
Wimmers and Gibson were both first round draft picks with similar college experience. This gave Twins fans some great expectations for Wimmers especially after a some strong numbers with Fort Myers in his professional debut (1 ER, 0.70 WHIP, 23 K, 15.2 IP). His trip through the Twins organization has been rocky at best. There have been some high moments but his issues with control have deterred him from living up to his first round draft status. The last two seasons he has been over a year and a half older than the competition at his level while splitting time as a starter and reliever.2016 will be big if he wants to stay in the Twins organization.
 
6. Ben Revere
2015 Team (Level): Philadelphia Phillies (MLB), Toronto Blue Jays (MLB)
At the end of the 2010 season, Revere would make his big league debut before becoming an MLB regular in 2011. Revere, another first round pick on this list, showed the ability to make consistent contact in the minors while stealing bases and playing strong outfield defense. He would become a fan favorite during his couple years playing in Minnesota before being dealt to the Phillies for Trevor May. He's stolen 30 bases or more in four of his last five seasons and he lead the NL in hits back in 2014. Philadelphia dealt him to the Blue Jays at the end of last season to help with their playoff run.
 
7. Oswaldo Arcia
2015 Team (Level): Minnesota Twins (MLB), Rochester Red Wings (AAA)
Arcia was already showing his power potential in 2010 as he finished the season with a 1.096 OPS for Elizabethton in the Appalachian League. He wouldn't debut with the Twins until 2013 and he would crank 20 home runs at the big league level in 2014. Arcia is still in the Twins organization but he struggled through 2015 to the point where he wasn't given a call-up last September. With the emergence of Miguel Sano and the addition of Byung Ho Park, it will be interesting to see what kind of role Arcia will have in 2016. He could be a good power option off the bench.
 
8. Liam Hendriks
2015 Team (Level): Toronto Blue Jays (MLB)
Hendriks played at both Low- and High-A for the Twins in 2010 before getting on the fast track to the big leagues in 2011. He'd debut as 22-year old and win nine games as a 23-year old but he'd be out of the Twins organization following the 2014 season. Since then, he has pitched in the Royals and Blue Jays systems. Last year, he was a very effective relief pitcher for the Blue Jays as they went on to win the AL East. This offseason he was traded from the Blue Jays to the Athletics for pitcher Jesse Sanchez.
 
9. Kyle Waldrop
2015 Team (Level): None
Waldrop had just made his debut during the 2011 campaign following back-to-back seasons pitching at Triple-A. He'd appear in 24 games for the Twins between 2011 and 2012. He'd pitch one more season professionally in the Pirates organization but he never made it back to the big leagues. Waldrop hasn't pitched at any level since 2013.
 
10. Max Kepler
2015 Team (Level): Minnesota Twins (MLB), Chattanooga Lookouts (AA)
Kepler was coming off his professional debut back in 2010 but he was part of a strong international signing class that included the aforementioned Sano. Kepler seemed to have all the tools necessary to be a five-tool prospect but there were a lot of unknowns surrounding a young player that spent time developing in Europe. He would spend most of his minor league years around the edge of the Twins top-10 prospects before a magical 2015. Kepler was outstanding this season on the way to making his big league debut. He was named Southern League MVP and he helped the Lookouts to win the league's championship.

The Minnesota Twins held a press conference Wednesday morning to introduce their newest addition to the family, Korean slugger Byung Ho Park. The hope is that Park can approach the level of production he showed in Korea and, if so, join potential stars Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton as cornerstones in a Twins everyday lineup being built to contend for the postseason for years to come.
 
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Park-press-conference.jpg
 
By now, everyone knows how he came to be a member of the Twins. His Korean team posted him, the Twins won the bidding for the exclusive rights to negotiate with him, they came to an agreement on a multi-year deal and, on
Wednesday, he and the Twins’ brass spoke to the media about the whole thing.
 
The assembled media asked a lot of good questions. How will park adjust to facing better pitchers who throw better breaking balls and faster fastballs? How will he adjust to being a full-time designated hitter? What kind of fielder is he, in the event he needs to use his glove more frequently than is currently envisioned? How will he adjust to living and working in the United States?
 
The media got very few good answers to those questions, however.
 
That’s not the fault of Park, GM Terry Ryan or anyone else on that dias, really. The fact is, there are no good answers to most of the questions, yet. Park will need to answer those questions on the field, in the clubhouse and out and about in the greater Twins Territory community.
 
(This article was originally published at Knuckleballsblog.com)
 
Ryan told the media that he feels his team needs to add offense and that he expects Park to replace Torii Hunter’s offensive production.
 
My goodness, I certainly hope he can do better than that. After all, while Hunter made significant critical contributions to the turnaround of the 2015 Twins, not a lot of those contributions were with his bat. If Park doesn’t exceed Hunter’s 2015 production, he may well be getting acquainted with upstate New York or south central Tennessee at some point.
 
It sounds like expectations are measured, which is good. Everyone with the club has indicated they expect Park to struggle a little bit as he adjusts to Major League pitching, but that he is also expected to successfully make those adjustments. I wonder how well those limited expectations will be remembered when the strikeouts come, especially
if wins don’t come as quickly for this team as we think they should.
 
I’m looking forward to a full season of Park and Miguel Sano in the lineup. That’s a lot of long-ball potential that wasn’t there on Opening Day, 2015. It’s also a lot of strikeout potential, of course.
 
Ryan was asked if he expects to make more roster moves, obviously alluding to the possibility of trading incumbent third baseman Trevor Plouffe. His response seemed unequivocal, stating that he did not expect to make additional changes to the regular lineup. “We’re going to go with what we’ve got,” he said. He added, “We’re going to move Sano to the outfield.”
 
Things change, of course. Baseball’s Winter Meetings are coming up and it’s reasonable to expect that Ryan will get some inquiries about the availability of some of his players, including Plouffe. Maybe his unambiguous statements today are just part of a posture he’s taking to send a message to his peers that they should not expect to get Plouffe (or anyone) for peanuts.
 
But, to me, he certainly sounded and looked like a man who believes his everyday lineup is just about set in stone.
The additional power is good. It’s very good. I just don’t think it’s so good that it will, by itself, push the Twins over hump and propel them into the postseason. I believe that this team also needs more hitters who can get on base and contribute some extra-base hits with regularity.
 
For that to happen, Miguel Sano cannot afford a sophomore slump. He needs to not only continue to pepper the outfield bleachers with 400-foot home run balls, he needs to continue adding 30 or 40 doubles and get on base 38% of the time. In short, he needs to be a fixture in the cleanup spot for the Twins that strikes fear into the minds of opposing pitchers and catchers.
 
He needs to be that guy right out of the gate in 2016.
 
Byron Buxton also needs to arrive in 2016. And by “arrive,” I mean he needs to, as Nuke LaLoosh put it, announce his presence with authority.
 
If Buxton and Sano take control of the leadoff and cleanup spots, respectively, on Opening Day and both show the talent they have demonstrated at every minor league level (and that Sano demonstrated in half a season with the Twins this year), it will allow the rest of the lineup to easily fall into place.
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Buxton2015b-1414936-429x600.jpg
Byron Buxton (Photo: S D Buhr)

Mauer and Dozier become the everyday number 2 and 3 hitters. Plouffe, Park and either Rosario or Arcia (whichever claims the third outfield spot) easily slot into the 5-7 spots, while Escobar and the catcher du jour, Suzuki or Murphy, pull up the rear.
 
In that scenario, the Twins lineup has become much “longer,” to use the buzzword currently in favor that describes a team with dangerous hitters even far down the batting order. It also allows guys like Dozier, Mauer, Plouffe and Rosario to successfully fill roles they are most suited to fill, rather than try to be something they aren't.
 
Yes, I would have defensive concerns with any outfield that includes both Sano and Arcia in the corners. That’s a disaster waiting to happen, but I’m pretty confident that Rosario will be the winner of that battle this spring, so I’m not too concerned about it.
 
But if Buxton can’t be Buxton at the top of that order or if Sano struggles to make consistent hard contact at cleanup, suddenly your “long” lineup isn’t really so long and you’ve got some guys hitting in spots they really aren’t best-suited for.
 
Your leadoff hitter needs to work the count, hit for average, draw walks, find some gaps and cause all sorts of anxiety for pitchers, catchers and defenses on the basepaths.
 
Your cleanup hitter needs to consistently drive in runs. He needs to hit home runs in bunches. He needs to be able to do more than make pitchers pay for mistakes. He needs to hit a pitcher’s best pitch for extra bases. He needs to avoid striking out so often that opposing teams don’t worry about seeing him step into the on-deck circle.
 
If Buxton isn’t an effective leadoff man, someone else has to do that job and there is nobody currently on this roster that you could honestly say, “leadoff is his best spot.” The same is true of Sano at cleanup.
 
Yes, Dozier could lead off. Mauer and Escobar could do it, too. But all three of those players have holes in their offensive games that make them much better suited to hit someplace other than at the top of the Twins’ order.
It’s possible that Park will turn out to be a legitimate cleanup spot alternative to Sano. If so, that’s a bonus. But right
now, the best the Twins show me is a few guys who could serve that role if they absolutely had to. That’s not good enough.
 
If you have to slide Dozier and Mauer up a spot in the order and/or do the same with Plouffe and Rosario, not to mention Escobar and your catcher, suddenly that lineup doesn’t look so “long,” after all. You no longer have a lineup set up to challenge the Kansas City Royals in the American League Central Division, much less make a deep postseason run.
 
I know that I’ve totally ignored the pitching situation and, obviously, that’s very important, too. I also am aware that the Twins will be likely be a better team with Buxton in centerfield every day, regardless of what he does with his bat.
 
But for the Twins to become the team we all want them to be, they need Byron Buxton to be an All-Star level leadoff hitter, they need Sano to be a beast in the cleanup spot and they need those things to happen closer to April than September. They also need Park to quickly make whatever adjustments need to be made to allow him to be a significant contributor to a big league contender.
 
No pressure, guys. Just become great and do it now.

I spent Thanksgiving in New York City, visiting my son and his fiancée and seeing some sites. No, I didn't find Dave W, I guess I didn't look. Anyway, I did attend my first, and probably only, Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade. We arrived early and found a place to stand across from Fox News. We saw the parades, floats, minor celebrities and Santa.
 
A women standing next to me asked me if I was from Minnesota, since I was wearing a coat that said "Mayo Clinic" on it. She said that she had grown up in Hinckley and then moved to Scottsdale. We chatted for awhile and finally starting talking about children. She said that her son played for the Twins. I said "oh really" and shared with her that i was a Twins fan for life and that I often contributed to Twins Daily. She said her son was Aaron Slegers and that he was the tallest player in the Twins system--6'10". I remembered Slegers, but couldn't recall which Big Ten school he attended. She said he went to Indiana and that his catcher was Kyle Schwarber, who has made a name for himself.
 
Aaron made it to AA in 2015, after having a nice season at High A Fort Myers. I really don't know if how highly regarded he is, but it does highlight the many players in the minors--how hard they work and the odds against any but the premium prospects to make it to the majors. After a 160 inning regular season, Aaron Slegers works out every day, but hasn't done any throwing and won't for a while.
 
There were more events and a great turkey dinner put on by my son and his fiancée, but it is cool to have met someone with a connection to the Twins a long way from home.

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
------
 
 
The Twins announced that they have added LHP Taylor Rogers, RHP JT Chargois, OF Adam Brett Walker, LHP Randy Rosario, RHP Yorman Landa, LHP Pat Dean, and LHP Mason Melotakis to their 40-man roster. This leaves 41 players unprotected.
Here is a list of each of the unprotected players along with an risk analysis with the possibility that each player will get selected by another team:
 
RHP Jose Abreu
Age: 23
Height: 5' 11"
Weight: 170 lb
Highest Level: Rookie/Elizabethton
Acquired: Dominican Free Agent
2015 Prospect Rank: NR; 23th in 2014
Last season: 17 G, 26.2 IP, 6.8 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 3.71 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 1.39 WHIP, .272 BABIP
Summary: Very raw player with control and command issues, but extremely tantalizing fastball with a lot of movement. Secondary pitches are work in progress and has declined last season after missing 2014 with Tommy John surgery. Interesting to see how he will bounce back. Highly Unlikely to be taken in the draft
Risk %: 5%
 
 
RHP Jason Adam
Age: 24
Height: 6' 4"
Weight: 225 lb
Highest Level: AAA
Acquired: Traded from the Kansas for Josh Willingham in 2014
2015 Prospect Rank: NR
Last season: Did not play/recovering from surgery 2014 AAA/AA: 29 G, 19 GS, 120.1 IP, 7.7 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 4.71 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 1.41 WHIP, .345 BABIP
Summary: Was the Royals' 9th prospect according to Baseball America when traded. Mid 90s plus fastball complemented with an above average curve and works in progress slider and changeup. Starter potential. Unlikely to be taken in the draft because of the risk of the postsurgery unknown, but definitely has upside
Risk %: 30%
 
RHP Nick Anderson
Age: 25
Height: 6' 5"
Weight: 195 lb
Highest Level: A
Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent from Independent Leagues in 2015
2015 Prospect Rank: NR
Last season (A): 9 G, 0 GS, 12 IP, 9 K/9, 0 BB/9, 0.75 ERA, 2.73 FIP, 0.83 WHIP, .1945 BABIP
Summary: Minnesotan. Recent Independent League signing. 97 mph Fastball, but 2 years too old for the league and not too great secondary stuff. Definitely a project. Was there for the taking by any team and was not. Unlikely that he would be taken in the draft, unless someone sees him as a MLB-level project
Risk %: 15%
 
RHP Luke Bard
Age: 25
Height: 6' 3"
Weight: 195 lb
Highest Level: A+
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 1st round (42 overall) in 2012
2015 Prospect Rank: NR
Last season (A): 28 G, 0 GS, 52.1 IP, 8.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 2.41 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, .303 BABIP
Summary: Once (2012) the Twins' 10th best prospect according to Baseball America. One of the many relievers the Twins drafted in high rounds with the hope to turn into starters and ended up having Tommy John surgery. Bard was out all 2014 recoving. But has regressed in every level previously. Last season he was adequate at A ball, but 2 years older than the average player there. So far a dissapointment, and not sure that there will be any takers.
Risk %: 10%
 
 
RHP DJ Baxendale
Age: 24
Height: 6' 2"
Weight: 190 lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 10th round in 2012
2015 Prospect Rank: NR; highest: 15th in 2014 offseason.
Last season (AA) : 23 G, 21 GS, 118.1 IP, 7 K/9, 3 BB/9, 3.80 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 1.40 WHIP, .317 BABIP
Summary: Baxendale is all about Command and Control. If that works, he is great, if it does not, he is not. Repeated AA this season at an age a bit younger than average. His fastball has been hittable by more advanced hitters, and this has been his main problem. Cannot make it as a junk ball righty. Lots of potential there, and has some history as a reliever, but I don't think that it is enough for anyone to spend a 25 man roster spot on him.
Risk %: 30%
 
 
RHP Omar Bencomo
Age: 26
Height: 6' 1"
Weight: 170 lb
Highest Level: A+
Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent from Independent Leagues in 2015
2015 Prospect Rank: NR
Last season (A+) : 3 G, 3 GS, 18 IP, 2.5 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 1.50 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 0.90 WHIP, .196 BABIP
Summary: Another one of the Twins' Independent League signings. Started 3 games at a 26 year old at Fort Myers. Organizational depth and more of a candidate for release than a risk to be drafted
Risk %: 5%
 
OF Edgar Corcino
Age: 23
Height: 6' 1"
Weight: 210 lb
Highest Level: A
Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent from Independent Leagues in 2014
2015 Prospect Rank: NR
Last season (A) : .273/.340/.376; 373 PA, 4 HR, 9 SB, 34 BB, 91 K.
Summary: Yet another one of the Twins' Independent League signings. Started 63 games as a RF and 17 as a CF for Cedar Rapids. Not a prospect and not MLB-ready
Risk %: 15%
 
 
RHP Sam Gibbons
Age: 21
Height: 6' 4"
Weight: 190 lb
Highest Level: A
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent from Australia in 2011
2015 Prospect Rank: NR
Last season (A) : 15 G, 15 GS, 90.1 IP, 6.8 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 2.89 ERA, 3.14 FIP, 1.185 WHIP, .196 BABIP
Summary: Gibbons has been improving each season and jumping a level a season. High A ready, but not MLB-ready. Little risk of being taken in the MLB portion of the draft, might want to protect him in the minor league portion of the draft.
Risk %: 25%
 
RHP Miguel Gonzalez
Age: 21
Height: 6' 1"
Weight: 180 lb
Highest Level: Rookie (GCL)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent from Dominican Republic in 2011
2015 Prospect Rank: NR
Last season (Rookie/GCL) : 15 G, 3 GS, 39.2 IP, 9.1 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 1.59 ERA, 2.12 FIP, 0.981 WHIP, .271 BABIP
Summary: Third time is the charm, since threepeating the GCL, Gonzalez have found himself, by improving his mechanics and control. Still very young. Little risk of being taken in the MLB portion of the draft, might want to protect him in the minor league portion of the draft.
Risk %: 15%
 
 
IF Niko Goodrum
Age: 23
Height: 6' 3"
Weight: 167 lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 2nd round of 2010
2015 Prospect Rank: NR; 27th in 2014
Last season (AA) : .244/.332/.392; 238 PA, 5 HR, 18 SB, 28 BB, 51 K.
Summary: Goodrum is still young, but the expectations for the former second round draft pick have been higher than his performance so far. Declining performance at 3B, where he switch from SS, but adding CF to his repertoir and seeing more (and better defensively) games at SS in 2015. Someone might pick him up as a utility player/PR, but he is not ready to perform with his bat.
Risk %: 35%
 
1B Bryan Haar
Age: 25
Height: 6' 3"
Weight: 215 lb
Highest Level: A+
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 34th round of 2012
2015 Prospect Rank: NR.
Last season (A+) : .249/.317/.323; 284 PA, 1 HR, 1 SB, 21 BB, 61 K.
Summary: Organizational depth at this point, and as a 25 year old in high A ball, he is more of a candidate to be cut than drafted.
Risk %: 5%
 
OF Travis Harrison
Age: 23
Height: 6' 1"
Weight: 215 lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 1st round (50th overall) of 2011
2015 Prospect Rank: 14th
Last season (AA) : .240/.363/.356; 479 PA, 5 HR, 3 SB, 65 BB, 102 K.
Summary: Harrison has been taken a step up in level every year in his professional career, but also has been taking a step back in performance. Last season was his worst so far as a pro. Still more than 2 years young in AA, he is in the top prospect conversation and he might be a season or two away from a breakthrough; however, he is not major league ready at this point and I cannot see someone drafting him, but the potential is there.
Risk %: 40%
 
 
1B DJ Hicks
Age: 25
Height: 6' 5"
Weight: 245 lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 17th round of 2012
2015 Prospect Rank:NR, 2014: 24th
Last season (AA) : .227/.320/.351; 259 PA, 6 HR, 1 SB, 32 BB, 66 K.
Summary: Hicks' strongest tool is his power, and he has seen a drastic decline as he has been climbing minor league levels, something that he did with regularity. Bothered with injuries this season. It is unlikely that he will be drafted, he needs another good year to be MLB-ready.
Risk %: 25%
 
LHP David Hurlbut
Age: 25
Height: 6' 3"
Weight: 221 lb
Highest Level: AAA (one game)
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 28th round of 2011
2015 Prospect Rank: NR
Last season (A+/AA/AAA) : 20 G, 19 GS, 119 IP, 5.3 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 3.78 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 1.333 WHIP, .311 BABIP
Summary: Hurlbut had a decent AA season, he is left-handed and a pitch to contact guy. Someone might think that converting him to a reliever might improve his numbers. As with any lefty, there are always some possibilities that someone will pull the trigger, but there are better options out there.
Risk %: 45%
 
RHP Cole Johnson
Age: 27
Height: 6' 3"
Weight: 200 lb
Highest Level: AAA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 44th round of 2011
2015 Prospect Rank: NR
Last season (A+/AA/AAA) : 35 G, 0 GS, 52 IP, 8.3 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 3.18 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 1.404 WHIP, .331 BABIP
Summary: Cole Johnson is MLB-ready. Heavy singer sitting at 89-92, good slider. Command of his fastball is crucial. Tale of 2 places season, better at AA than AAA. Might be due to the fact of game calling by catchers at AAA as well. Can be in a major league pen right now.
Risk %: 70%
 
RHP Zack Jones
Age: 24
Height: 6' 1"
Weight: 185 lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 4th round of 2012
2015 Prospect Rank: NR; 2014: 19th
Last season (A+/AA) :45 G, 0 GS, 51.2 IP, 11.8 K/9, 4.9 BB/9, 4.53 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 1.277 WHIP, .288 BABIP
Summary: Zach Jones is a fireballer with a major league 99 mph fastball, but with iffy control due to his mechanics (which have been the source of nagging injuries,) and an average slider that sometimes is much better than average, but it is an inconsistent pitch. Much better performance at Fort Myers than at Chatanooga. Still can strike people out and non contenders with pitching coaches who would love a challenge might wink at that heater.
Risk %: 75%
 
RHP Felix Jorge
Age: 21
Height: 6' 2"
Weight: 170 lb
Highest Level: A
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent from Dominican Republic
2015 Prospect Rank: 29th
Last season (A) :23 G, 22 GS, 142 IP, 7.2 K/9, 2 BB/9, 2.79 ERA, 3.54 FIP, 1.056 WHIP, .267 BABIP
Summary: Jorge has 4 pitches that can be plus at different times. He just has not put it all together. Second time at Cedar Rapids (still at an age younger than league average) was better. Fastball used to live around 95 earlier in his career, but endurance had been an issue. This kid has a lot of potential. He is not major league ready by any means, but the Twins are betting nobody pulls a Santana on them. However someone might.
Risk %: 50%
 
OF Marcus Knecht
Age: 25
Height: 6' 1"
Weight: 200 lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Signed as a Minor League free agent in 2015
2015 Prospect Rank:NR
Last season (A+/AA) : .221/.320/.310; 465 PA, 2 HR, 15 SB, 51 BB, 103 K.
Summary: The definition of organization depth. Not sure why the Twins re-signed him. Cannot see a team taking a chance for any reason
Risk %: 2%
 
LHP Brett Lee
Age: 25
Height: 6' 4"
Weight: 206 lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 10th round of 2011
2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
Last season (A+/A) :22 G, 22 GS, 134 IP, 4.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 3.16 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 1.239 WHIP, .277 BABIP
Summary: Even though Lee posted before average numbers, his stuff is pretty average, other than pitching to contact, which is his bread and butter. Very low strikeout and walk numbers, so his success (or lack of) would have to depend on his ability to induce ground balls. And he is not ready for the majors at this point. But he is a living and breathing lefty. On the other hand, there are better option for those as well...
Risk %: 30%
 
RHP Kuo-Hua Lo
Age: 22
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 195lb
Highest Level: Rookie (Elizabethton)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent from Taiwan
2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
Last season (Rookie) :19 G, 0 GS, 31.1 IP, 12.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 1.44 ERA, 2.75 FIP, 0.734 WHIP, .213 BABIP
Summary: Lo repeated the Appalachian League in his fourth season with the Twins and had remarkable success closing games. However he is 2 years older than the league average player and has faced players who grabbed a wooden bad for the first time in their lives. Might get himself into prospect conversations, but he is not close to being Major League ready
Risk %: 10%
 
C Joe Maloney
Age: 25
Height: 6' 2"
Weight: 190 lb
Highest Level: A+ (in 2013)
Acquired: Signed as an Independent League free agent this off-season
2015 Prospect Rank:NR
Last season (IL) : .337/.432/.559; 433 PA, 14 HR, 18 SB, 57 BB, 106 K.
Summary: Intriguing IL numbers last season, so the Twins took a chance on him. More about him here. Not the kind of player you draft on Rule 5 draft.
Risk %: 5%
 
IF Aderlin Mejia
Age: 23
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 170lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent for the Dominican Republic
2015 Prospect Rank:NR
Last season (A+/AA) : .231/.313/.285; 305 PA, 1 HR, 7 SB, 34 BB, 37 K.
Summary: Had some flashes in the past, but last season was his fourth season that he spent at least some part at Fort Myers. He is a fan favorite there, but a utility player. More of a release than a draft candidate.
Risk %: 5%
 
SS Heiker Meneses
Age: 24
Height: 5'9"
Weight: 200lb
Highest Level: AAA (2014)
Acquired: Signed as a Minor League Free Agent in 2015
2015 Prospect Rank:NR
Last season (AA) : .259/.317/.300; 386 PA, 0 HR, 15 SB, 24 BB, 72 K.
Summary: Re-signed by the Twins as a minor league free agent again this off-season. More about him here. Definitely there is some intrigue and potential, but not enough to get drafted
Risk %: 25%
 
2B Levi Michael
Age: 24
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 180lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 1st round (30th overall) of 2011
2015 Prospect Rank: 22nd
Last season (AA) : .267/.369/.434; 264 PA, 5 HR, 18 SB, 31 BB, 53 K.
Summary: Never played below high A, was over-slotted and over-assigned when drafted. But he got better each and every season. Better than average defender after his move to second base, his challenge has been staying healthy. However second basement with .804 OPS in AA and excellent judgement of the strike zone do not grow on trees. The exact kind of player a team (especially in the National League) would not mind spending its last roster spot over.
Risk %: 75%
 
RHP Alex Muren
Age: 24
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 200 lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 12th round of 2012
2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
Last season (A+/AA) :44 G, 0 GS, 71.1 IP, 6.8 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 3.53 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 1.206 WHIP, .273 BABIP
Summary: Muren is organizational depth at this point. He does have his moments but are not enough for someone to draft him.
Risk %: 10%
 
C Carlos Paulino
Age: 26
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 175lb
Highest Level: AAA
Acquired: Singed as a Minor League Free Agent in 2015
2015 Prospect Rank:NR
Last season (AA/AAA) : .262/.328/.337; 193 PA, 0 HR, 0 SB, 17 BB, 15 K.
Summary: Re-signed by the Twins as a minor league free agent again this off-season. Despite being the Twins' de facto number 3 in depth catcher as of today, he does not fit the profile of someone who will be taken in the Rule 5 draft.
Risk %: 25%
 
RHP Greg Peavey
Age: 27
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 185lb
Highest Level: AAA
Acquired: Selected from the Mets in the Minor League portion of the Rule 5 draft in 2014
2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
Last season (AAA/AA) :27 G, 27 GS, 147 IP, 5.3 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 5.02 ERA, 4.48 FIP, 1.354 WHIP, .287 BABIP
Summary: Peavey is a pitch to contact control artist who can be really good on a good day and really bad on a bad day. And he had more bad days than good last season. Hard to see him drafted, but it is not impossible. Not unlike the starters that the Twins have drafted in the rule 5 draft this decade
Risk %: 40%
 
C Michael Quesada
Age: 25
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 205lb
Highest Level: A+
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 24th Round of 2010
2015 Prospect Rank:NR
Last season (A+) : .151/.239/.198; 240 PA, 0 HR, 0 SB, 21 BB, 73 K.
Summary: Quesada had an abysmal season at Fort Myers at an age 2.5 years older than League average. Has been digressing every season; add a suspension because of drug use and it is a wonder he still is in the Twins' organization. Will not get drafted, unless something freezes over.
Risk %: 1%
 
RHP Dereck Rodriguez
Age: 24
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 180lb
Highest Level: A+
Acquired: Drafted in the 6th round of 2011
2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
Last season (Rk/A/A+) :15 G, 14 GS, 75.1 IP, 7.9 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 3.35 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 1.235 WHIP, .306 BABIP
Summary: The son of Pudge was drafted as an outfielder and now is being converted into a pitcher. Played mostly Rookie ball at Elizabethton with 2 games with the Miracle and 1 with the Lookouts. He is a project; a project that looks good, but not MLB-ready by any means.
Risk %: 20%
 
C Jairo Rodriguez
Age: 27
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 180 lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Signed by the Twins as an International Amateur Free Agent from Venezuela
2015 Prospect Rank:NR
Last season (AA) : .221/.284/.244; 96 PA, 0 HR, 0 SB, 8 BB, 15 K.
Summary: Has been in the Twins' organization for 9 season and was re-signed again this off-season, for his 10th, after a pretty bad performance at Chattanooga. They like him for some reason, but his is a performance that only a parent team would like...
Risk %: 2%
 
1B Reynaldo Rodriguez
 
 
 
Age: 29
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 200 lb
Highest Level: AAA
Acquired: Signed by the Twins as a minor league Free Agent in 2013
2015 Prospect Rank:NR
Last season (AAA) : .255/.307/.446; 551 PA, 16 HR, 13 SB, 39 BB, 82 K.
Summary: Re-signed by the Twins as a minor league free agent again this off-season. A little older than the traditional rule 5 picks, his skills translate well in the majors and could be picked by a team in need of RH bats at the 1B/OF/PH/DH positions.
Risk %: 55%
 
LHP Dan Runzler
Age: 30
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 210lb
Highest Level: MLB (2012)
Acquired: Signed this off-season as a minor league free agent
2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
Last season (AAA) :39 G, 0 GS, 37.2 IP, 9.6 K/9, 6.7 BB/9, 5.26 ERA, 4.56 FIP, 2.018 WHIP, .285 BABIP
Summary: You can read a lot about Runzler here. A very intriguing situation and the only thing that makes me think that he might not get selected is that if a team wanted to give him a 40-man position, they could have done it. However, things change in a month.
Risk %: 45%
 
 
RHP Tim Shibuya
Age: 26
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 190lb
Highest Level: AAA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 23rd round of the 2011 draft
2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
Last season (A+/AA/AAA) :33 G, 4 GS, 63 IP, 5.3 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 3.57 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 1.222 WHIP, .295 BABIP
Summary: Shibuya, despite his impeccable control is organizational depth at this point. Hard to see any takers
Risk %: 25%
 
RHP Matt Summers
Age: 26
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 205lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 4th round of the 2011 draft
2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
Last season (A+/AA) :26 G, 1 GS, 44.2 IP, 6.0 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 3.63 ERA, 3.45 FIP, 1.187 WHIP, .266 BABIP
Summary: Pretty much the same that was said about Shibuya. However, Summers was a higher round pick in the same draft and did not go that far.
Risk %: 25%
 
 
RHP Todd Van Steensel
Age: 24
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 190 lb
Highest Level: A+
Acquired: Signed by the Twins as a minor league free agent in 2014 (previously pitching for them for 2011)
2015 Prospect Rank: 34
Last season (A+/AA) :46 G, 0 GS, 66 IP, 11 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 2.32 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 1.288 WHIP, .310 BABIP
Summary: In his first full season as one of the Miracle closers, Van Steensel put good enough numbers to move up to the Chattanooga pen next season, but not good enough to be drafted. He in an interesting prospect who might be a couple seasons away if his fastball plays against better competition, but he is not there yet.
Risk %: 25%
 
UT Logan Wade
Age: 24
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 190 lb
Highest Level: A+
Acquired: Signed by the Twins as an International Free agent from Australia
2015 Prospect Rank:NR; 2014: 37
Last season (A+) : .258/.296/.374; 366 PA, 3 HR, 3 SB, 20 BB, 63 K.
Summary: Wade is an average utility player at Fort Myers who can play all over the field. Not sure that he is ready for AA, much yet for the majors.
Risk %: 5%
 
 
LHP Jason Wheeler
Age: 25
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 255 lb
Highest Level: AAA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 8th round of 2011
2015 Prospect Rank: NR
Last season (AA/AAA) :25 G, 25 GS, 137.2 IP, 5.9 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 5.43 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 1.467 WHIP, .323 BABIP
Summary: Typical Twins' minor league middle of the rotation starter. Pitch to contact pitcher with above average control, hoping to induce ground balls that the defense behind him will turn to outs. Much better success at AA than at AAA last season. He is a lefty. Maybe someone things that with a couple few pitches and a few ticks higher in his FB might turn into an acceptable reliever in the majors. Maybe.
Risk %: 55%
 
UT Stephen Wickens
Age: 26
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 170 lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 33rd round of 2011
2015 Prospect Rank:NR
Last season (A+) : .254/.352/.333; 310 PA, 1 HR, 16 SB, 36 BB, 45 K.
Summary: Steady utility player who has played every position except CF and C. Has value on resting starters for a good minor league team and not hurt the team with the bat or the glove, but that's about it. I do not see him getting selected.
Risk %: 15%
 
LHP Corey Williams
Age: 25
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 205 lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 3th round of 2011
2015 Prospect Rank: NR
Last season (A+/AA) :29 G, 0 GS, 33.12 IP, 7 K/9, 4 BB/9, 2.43 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 1.110 WHIP, .247 BABIP
Summary: Williams is a lefty in the Twins' system with closer staff, but command issues. He was on a quick trajectory to the majors that got derailed with a Tommy John surgery and the loss of all 2014. He returned in 2015 and put good but not great numbers. The Twins know his medicals better than any team, but Williams is the type of guy you add to a 40-man roster because if healthy he can help a team down the stretch better than the likes of Aaron Thompson and Ryan O'Rourke. Also this is exactly the kind of guy who might get drafted for the same reason.
Risk %: 75%
 
RHP Alex Wimmers.
Age: 27
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 212 lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 1st round of 2010 (21st overall)
2015 Prospect Rank: NR; 2014: 40
Last season (AA) :30 G, 18 GS, 115.1 IP, 7.8 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 4.53 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 1.387 WHIP, .325 BABIP
Summary: Wimmers is the poster boy of the players who get drafted in the Rule 5 draft. Another season removed by Tommy John surgery he put respectable raw numbers in AA and pitched the most innings in his career. A control artist with ground ball tendencies and a strikeout breaking ball, might need a change of scenery. The potential is there and now that he has proven that he can handle the work load, he will find a taker. Surprised if the former 1st Round selection is with the Twins at the conclusion of the Winter Meetings.
Risk %: 85%

Last season, the Minnesota Twins had one of the worst bullpens in all of Major League Baseball. Despite the front office's cry for calm prior to the season, the inevitable reality that the talent just wasn't there came to fruition. Once Glen Perkins broke down in the second half, the lone bright spot was now gone. In 2016, the goal will be to change the course, and it's possible two of the best additions may currently be pitching in Arizona.
 
For what the Twins have in pitching depth throughout their organization, there's also some key contributors who should be very close to their big league debut. Both drafted early in the 2014 draft, Jake Reed and Nicky Burdi are taking the Arizona Fall League by storm.
 
A month or so ago, I wrote a primer on what the focus needed to be for each of the Twins inclusions in the Fall League. For Burdi, the focus was no doubt going to be on his command, in that piece I said, "Burdi throws gas, but his command was non-existent in 2015. Owning a 6.6 BB/9 mark, pounding the zone will be a major focus in the Arizona Fall League." Often connected due to their path and pedigree, I touched on Reed as well. In talking about the former Duck I said, "Reed is repeating the Fall League this season. In 2014, Reed owned a 0.71 ERA in 12.2 IP for the Salt River Rafters. Another strong performance, with improved command, should have his arrow pointing right back up." We now find ourselves at a point of evaluation.
 
With just four games left in Arizona Fall League action, both Burdi and Reed have the bulk of their action behind them. To show for it, each pitcher has been nothing short of spectacular. For Burdi, he's pitched 7.0 innings allowing just two hits and zero runs while striking out nine and walking none. Reed has followed suit going 8.1 IP surrendering just four hits, no earned runs, and owning an 8/3 K/BB rate. In the ERA column, both pitchers have a flawless mark.
 
It's probably a certainty that the Twins will look through the free agency market and trade offerings for options to improve upon the pen. For both Burdi and Reed however, it looks as though they once again should have a very strong possibility of surfacing, and contributing, for the Twins this upcoming season.
 
During the fall, Burdi has regularly pushed the radar gun into the triple digits. He's notched 1-2-3 innings, and he's struck out sides. Reed has picked up saves, he's been used in high leverage situations, and he's gotten some very strong hitters out. Against competition that would rank among the best either player has seen on a consistent basis, both Twins prospects have excelled considerably.
 
With turnover needing to happen for Paul Molitor's relief help, a decision to go younger may not be a bad idea at all. Although both Reed and Burdi will need to continue the success out of the gate in the upcoming season, they should (and likely will) be given some time during big league spring training. If both players can show that the Fall League is what should be expected, and the hiccups of 2015 were just that, Molitor may have two really good arms ready to make a splash.
 
Affiliated during the Fall League with the Twins, Scottsdale owns a league best record and is in position to take the title. Helping them to get there no doubt has been both Jake Reed and Nick Burdi. The next contribution they make could come at a much higher level.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

The Twins' four-game sweep of the Orioles has kept them very much alive in the 2015 wild card chase. On Tuesday, they start a big three-game series with another contender in the Tampa Bay Rays. A series win would put two games between the Twins and Rays and keep the Twins within a couple games, at worst, of the final wild card spot.
 
This comes after a big fall in the first three weeks of August. It honestly looked like Terry Ryan had just given up on the 2015 season. There are some things to note that are positive going forward however.
 
1. Miguel Sano is very good.
2. Byron Buxton is up with the Twins and he should start to come around (though a move to the bottom of the order would seem justified).
3. Aaron Hicks will be back soon. This will mean a full starting lineup for the *first time all season.*
4. Kennys Vargas looks like a key roster piece to be added soon.
5. The bullpen--which was becoming a full-blown disaster--could re-emerge with some new faces and the return to form of older reliables. There are six guys involved here. Glen Perkins and Casey Fien returning to their "true" selves is one part. Trevor May's dominance in his 2015 role as a setup man is another. Kevin Jepsen being a Casey Fein clone/RH specialist is another. Finally, the proper use of Ryan O'Rourke and newly acquired Neal Cotts against lefties is the last piece. I don't care about JR Graham or Brian Duensing. Hopefully, both of them will "get injured" for the playoffs.
6. Three out of five starters pitching well in any five-game stretch isn't bad. We won't know who they are going to be ahead of time, but they can get this done.
 
There are remaining things to question: Are the Twins going to commit to 11 pitchers in the playoffs instead of 12? Will Josmil Pinto return to get some at bats this September? What about Danny Santana? Will we get to see Max Kepler and/or Jose Berrios?
 
It's been a sudden roller coaster ride, but the Twins have a chance to right this ship. The Yankees, Rangers, and Angels are in the way, and the Twins will need to pass two of them, but it can happen, obviously. Odds are that one of those three is going to falter anyway (my money is on the Rangers there). I still have hope for the playoffs this year.

I am a fan.
 
Not a player. Or a coach. Or a manager. Or a GM. Or an owner.
 
I am a fan.
 
I played my last organized (non-pick up/wiffle ball) game of baseball in 2003. It was in a 'I-can't-play-for-my-high-school-team' league and I remember that we needed one more win to get into the playoffs. I was playing 3rd that day so me and a teammate were on the field so I could take some throws to first when our last teammate finally showed up. In basketball shorts. Without a glove. We lost the game.
 
The reason I bring this story up is I remember getting into the car with my mom after and telling her "I don't understand how someone would show up so unprepared to play. Why would you even come?"
 
I can't quite tell if this was how I felt about the Twins. I rode the high of the first half of the season like all of us. "Holy crap, this team can play!" "How is Torii hitting like this??" "Good lord! Is this the same Mike Pelfrey??" "Terry Ryan is finally moving prospects up instead of AAAA players!"
 
I got to see the team I love riding a huge series win against the Tigers into the All-Star break. Heck, Dozier finally got some national attention and got into the All-Star game! Through the last 4 years, I couldn't remember feeling like this. I was actually going to Target Field to watch baseball, not just to hangout in the summer while drinking some beer and looking for beautiful women. (No shame on that one, that was a large factor)
 
And now the 2nd half has started and I've started to think I'm one of the people I listed above. "Why is Danny Santana still playing SS?" "I'd so much rather watch Oswaldo Arcia wiff multiple times a week but mash one into the parking lot in right field than pretend Eduardo Nunez can take another a bat at DH." "Does Molitor even look at stat lines?" "How the hell is Blaine Boyer still on this team?" (Okay, that one is legitimate. Seriously, why?)
 
Games have gotten back to being the background noise on my TV while I'm at home. I watch a couple innings but it doesn't have the same pull as the first half. I look at the box score everyday but it's more out of habit than passion now. But I finally remembered something last night.
 
I am a fan.
 
And that means I'm going to go through the same things as the team. I'll get into a slump. I will roll my eyes and sigh. I'll start playing with my phone in the 3rd inning and look up to see the start of the 6th. And that's perfectly normal and okay.
 
This isn't to say I shouldn't be critical when the team doesn't play well or question front office moves but seriously, I'm a fan. And every team in baseball slumps at some point.
 
Because I've remembered that, I'm disappointed the team is playing this bad but I don't feel anything like I did the last 4 years. And I am incredibly excited for what this team can do, the rest of this year and the coming years.

Aaron Hicks is only 25. Entering the All-Star Break he has yet to have his 700th plate appearance, and he’s played in just over 180 games. And yet, he’s already dropped switch-hitting for a brief time period, has been called out by former manager Ron Gardenhire and assistant general manager Rob Antony for showing up to the ballpark and not knowing who the starting pitcher was that day, and after not making the team out of spring training this year the Star Tribune reported that he might not get another shot. “We probably haven’t seen the last of Aaron Hicks,” wrote LaVelle E. Neal, who has covered the Twins since 1998, “but the Twins’ expectations have fallen so far for the 14th overall pick from 2008 that his future could end up as a fourth outfielder.”
 
Hicks ended up resurfacing with the Twins, getting a call up in mid-May that lasted until he went on the disabled list in mid-June. Since returning from injury on July 7, he’s hitting .323 with two doubles, one triple, two home runs and seven RBI in 10 games. With Byron Buxton on the DL, he is the team’s starting center fielder, already has a Willie Mays-esque catch and is starting to show everyone why he was a first round selection in 2008. “I feel good at the plate,” he says, simply. “I’m just trying to make solid contact and drive some balls into the gap.”
 
He struggles to articulate exactly what is behind the turnaround. It is not as though he got traded or changed positions. Hicks added a leg kick, which has improved his timing and power, but it’s not all mechanical when it comes to big league production. “Up until this level, it’s physical,” Double-A manager Doug Mientkiewicz told the Star Tribune in June. “Past this level, it’s mental.”
 
“Our whole ordeal here is you have to prepare today as if you’re gonna be in Minnesota tomorrow, so you don’t want to have to all of a sudden change your routine and change your preparation,” says Triple-A hitting coach Tim Doherty, a person Hicks credits with turning his career around. “He learned how to do that. He learned how to study film, and he learned how to get his routine in, his work in, prior to learning how to take care of his body day-in and day-out.
 
“As far as his talents go, at some point in time the word ‘raw’ is gonna have to come off. You can’t have raw ability your entire career,” he continues. “You go up to the big leagues, and the first time you don’t know what to expect, you don’t know what they’re doing, so you gotta learn. … Seek out the veteran players: They’ll talk to you, they’re gonna help you, and they’re there and they’re a veteran because they listen and they learn. When players do that, like Hicksy’s been doing now, that’s huge.”
 
Torii Hunter has been a major influence on him in the Twins clubhouse. The nearly 40-year-old outfielder has helped Hicks with everything from workouts to diet to routine. “He’s always picking my brain,” says Hunter, who came up with the Twins as a center fielder at the turn of the century and had his fair share of call-ups and demotions before establishing himself as a major leaguer. “He reminds me of myself, that’s what I did with Kirby and Paul Molitor when I was younger and they were older.”
 
Hicks has always had talent: It’s why he was drafted in the first round, it’s why the Twins felt comfortable trading away Denard Span and Ben Revere in the same summer, and it’s why he was able to reach the majors at age 23. “Hicks is one of the most athletic outfielders in the high school ranks and perhaps in the (2008) draft class,” read one scouting report on him. “He’s got a ton of tools, but will he learn how to use them? Someone is sure to take that chance.”
 
“I definitely think that this guy, if he puts it together and gets his mind right, it’s gonna be special,” echoes Hunter. “[it’s] knowing when you step on the field you have the most athletic ability on the field. It’s like an inner-cockiness: You don’t speak it, you just go out and do it and try to prove it and tell yourself, ‘Hey, you’re better than everybody on this field.’”
 
The Twins ultimately took a chance on Hicks, of course, and they’ve given him ample opportunity to make the most of his ability since calling him up two years ago. Looking back on it, Twins general manager Terry Ryan admits that his promotion was premature, because while he made his fair share of spectacular plays in the outfield, he finished his rookie year with a .192/.259/.338 line in 81 games and wasn’t much better at the plate in his sophomore season (.215/.341/.274). “If somebody’s concerned about Hicks not getting a chance, I’ve got to talk to them,” says Ryan, elevating his voice. “If you’re talking about Hicks, you’re talking about the wrong guy. He’s had a lot of chances and he’s doing something with it here recently, but we’ve been criticized to the extreme about [his] chances.”
 
Throughout the process the Twins had to strike a delicate balance, allowing Hicks — or any prospect — enough leeway to fight through his struggles without giving him a sense of entitlement. “We try to make sure they get every opportunity,” says Ryan of his young players. “Aaron’s had a lot of chances. It’s his turn. It’s time to step up, and he’s done a nice job here.”
 
Twins hitting coach Tom Brunansky says the biggest difference between now and a year ago, when Hicks was muddled and briefly dropped switch-hitting, is his maturity level. “He feels confident, you can tell,” Brunansky says. “He doesn’t get frustrated, to where if it’s a bad at-bat … he can put that aside a little bit, we can get good conversations about what the next at-bat’s gonna do, and he’s moved on.
 
“We can call it growth, we can call it maturity — whatever it is, whatever terminology you want to use for it, it’s nice to see, because the talent and skillset of that kid is good.”
 
“I think it all came down to being able to do what I needed to do to become the player that I want to be, and it’s kind of just — I tried something new. I tried leg-kicking, and it’s been working out good for my timing and hitting in the big leagues,” says Hicks, who worked on the technique with Brunansky in spring training. “A lot of it just came with time: Being up here and having to deal with the grind and having to deal with failure so much. I mean, it’s all about just going out there and trying to have fun and learn, and learn as fast as possible to be able to have success.”
 
“All of that, and all of the curves that these guys go through with the ups and downs from the injuries and that type of thing, that all builds on all their mentalities,” says Doherty. “It makes them stronger, it makes them understand that when you take that away from them, they realize how hungry they need to be to get back with their teammates and start competing and try to win their division, and then try to win the pennant, and then try to win the World Series.”
 
Doherty says that Hicks told him, “I should be in center field. I should be helping those guys win,” when he was in Triple-A during his rehab stint, which brings up another aspect of Hicks’ development: He’s on a winning team for the first time in his major league career. So while he wasn’t traded, he did experience a change of scenery this season. “Does it matter? It makes it a whole lot easier. Absolutely,” says Doherty. “You’re going to a team that’s competing and trying to catch the Royals and right in the playoff hunt. Yeah, that makes it easier. But it doesn’t make it easier as a player: You still have to compete, regardless of if you’re in first place or last place.”
 
“He has that winning spirit, we’re winning, and he’s a part of winning right now,” says Hunter. “This last week, this last week or so, he’s shown all the ability that the Twins thought he had drafting him in the first round. This is what he’s capable of doing, and if he can do this consistently — you’re gonna have your rough times, that’s the way it goes — if he can bounce back every time, and make adjustments like he’s doing, he’s gonna be playing major league baseball for a long time.
 
“He’s only 25.”
 
This article was originally posted on the Cold Omaha section of 105 The Ticket.
 
Tom Schreier writes for 105 The Ticket’s Cold Omaha. Tune in to The Wake Up Call every Sunday at 8:00 am to hear the crew break down the week in Minnesota sports.
 
Follow Tom on Twitter @tschreier3.

One of my favorite people to follow on twitter for baseball news and analysis is Jay Jaffe of Sports Illustrated. He used to write for Baseball Prospectus and while there he developed a metric Jaffe War Score System. The baseball fan’s favorite website Baseball Reference explains Jaffe’s metric. “JAWS measures a player’s Hall of Fame worthiness by comparing him to the players at his position who are already enshrined, using advanced metrics to account for the wide variations in offensive levels that have occurred throughout the game’s history”. For Shortstops, The highest WAR (131.0) and a JAWS (98.2) rating goes to Honus Wagner. The second highest WAR is Alex Rodriguez with WAR (117.8) and a JAWS (64.2). Omar Vizquel is ranked 30th with 45.3 WAR and a 36.0 JAWS. Former Twin Christian Guzman is ranked 157th with a WAR of 12.5 and a 16.2 JAWS. For a more advanced breakdown click here.
Jaffe is important because he objectively quantifies a flawed Hall of Fame voting and election system. But he understands how JAWS explains a polarizing topic among Twins Fans, former catcher and current twins first basemen, Joseph Patrick Mauer.
He absolutely nailed the Hall of Fame analysis this year.
I was lucky enough to pick his brain for a couple Questions and Answers.
 
Q. From what you told me previously it was not a straight career path from graphic design work, how did you get your start as a writer?
A. Long before I wrote about baseball, I wrote about music - the local scene and cool indie stuff - for good clean fun, the weekly entertainment magazine of the Brown Daily Herald. An internship at a music magazine called Boston Rock led me to the revelation that I could make far more money learning to use the page layout software (Pagemaker) than writing, and that sent me down a decade-and-a-half long road into graphic design.
Most of the design work that I did was centered around textbooks and children's books; the pinnacle of my career was as the Creative Director on the World Almanac For Kids from 2002-2004. All of that work was for print, I didn't have any experience doing web design. At some point in early 2001, I decided I wanted to start a baseball blog and learn a bit of design to fancy it up. That experiment became FutilityInfielder.com, which survives in some half-neglected form today, because the paying gigs take up my time and I'm no longer current with my HTML/web design knowledge.
 
Q. Was there a certain moment that you caught the writing bug?
A. I can't really pinpoint what started me to writing about music but what got me into writing about baseball was arguments with my friends over the state of the Yankees in the late '90s, and then discussions on Baseball Primer (now Baseball Think Factory) and Baseball Prospectus, as well as the columns of Rob Neyer at ESPN. I was an early convert to Bill James back when his Baseball Abstracts were hits in the early 1980s, and it was very cool to see his concepts being updated and applied - I previously had little idea of where to find other baseball nerds.
 
Q. What is one thing that most do not know about you professionally?
A. That I not only had a previous career in graphic design but that I have a biology degree (see http://www.asbmb.org/asbmbtoday/201505/Features/AnalyzeThis/). Also that my wife's yellow laborador, Pearl, writes some of my columns (try to guess which ones!)
 
Q. What advice do you have for aspiring writers?
A. Writing is a muscle and needs to be strengthened via regular repetition. Write every day, even if it's not for publication. That's the only way you're ever going to find your voice.
 
Q. How did you become involved with Baseball Prospectus?
A. At Futility Infielder I had done two annual reviews of the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot (2002 and 2003) that got a lot of traffic. BP asked me if I'd like to write something for them on the 2004 ballot - what came out of it were my first two contributions and a forerunner to the system that became JAWS.
 
Q.Why do you think writers for Baseball Prospectus and other online websites are hired by Major League front offices? What exactly are they looking for in these writers and or sabermatricians?
A. They're not looking for great stylists of prose, they want people with skills in quantitative analysis and the ability to manage large sets of data. They want the ones with the ability to pick out the signal from the noise when it comes to pitching or defensive data or college stats, stuff like that.
 
Q. Currently, Mauer is tied for 3rd with Albert Pujols with a career batting average of .3156, among active players.
1. Miguel Cabrera (13,32) .3213 R
2. Ichiro Suzuki (15,41) .3165 L
3. Joe Mauer (12,32) .3156 L
4. Albert Pujols (15,35) .3156 R
After starting off his career with 3 batting titles as a catcher, Joe Mauer’s Hall Fame stock seems to have fallen. Mauer moved to first base because of the concussions he suffered, the need to keep his bat in the lineup daily, and the need to increase his career longevity.
How did that position change affect his chances of getting into the Hall of Fame?
A. Mauer had already established himself as one of the best-hitting catchers in history, had done so much that his place in Cooperstown is justified. Via my JAWS system, he already surpasses the peak value (best seven seasons) of the average Hall of Fame catcher by a substantial margin. Even if he winds up playing more games at first base than catcher, he's never going to be identified as a first baseman — a similar situation as Ernie Banks.
The problem for him is that it appears he's headed towards a long dénouement, 3 1/2 more seasons of being a light-hitting first baseman who's nowhere near worth what he's being paid. Voters tend to hold that stuff against candidates, sometimes to an unreasonable degree.
 
Q. But what does he need to accomplish statistically to increase his chances of getting into Cooperstown?
Having already surpassed the 10 years needed for eligibility, the one thing that he really needs to do is get to 2,000 hits. No position player whose MLB career crossed into the post-1960 expansion era has gotten in with fewer than that. Otherwise worthy candidates like Dick Allen and Bobby Grich can't get in despite strong resumes and stellar advanced metrics, and the same will be true for Jim Edmonds when he becomes eligible this winter.
Mauer's at 1,622 at this writing, so he should be able to surpass that by the time his contract ends following the 2018 season. He'll be just 35 then; it remains to be seen if he's got anything that keeps him around.
 
Q. Do you have book coming out soon? What is in the works besides Sports Illustrated?
A I'm working on a book called The Cooperstown Casebook, to be published by Thomas Dunne, a division of St. Martin's Press. It's about my work with JAWS and the role of sabermetrics in choosing who goes into the Hall of Fame. It's tentatively due for Fall 2016, and when I say tentatively...
Other than that, I do the occasional TV appearance on MLB Network's MLB Now and ESPN's The Olbermannn Show, and once in a while I write at Futility Infielder, though it's usually about beer, not baseball.

What a strange season. I didn't think the Twins would be playing decent baseball as the calendar switched to July. I didn't think that Byron Buxton would be up, after his essentially lost 2014 season. I didn't think Trevor May would be (as of late) the team's most dominant starting pitcher. And I sure didn't think this proverbial ragtag bunch of misfits would -- if the season ended today -- be a wild card playoff team.
 
I thought 2015 would be the season where players like Oswaldo Arcia, Aaron Hicks, Kennys Vargas, May, Danny Santana, and Alex Meyer would get extended opportunities to figure it out by playing games that, after May or June, really didn't matter. You know -- let them take the Rochester shuttle, figure out the league, and hopefully come back ready to contribute in 2016, when players like Buxton, Miguel Sano and Jose Berrios were ready to join the team.
 
But here we are. As it turns out, games in July will matter. It will matter this season whether Trevor May can be the reliable starter we want him to be; it will matter whether Kennys Vargas can hit consistently enough to stay in the lineup and contribute to a winning team. I don't think this team can keep this pace for the rest of the season, but they don't have to, in order for things to get interesting. The trade deadline is just over 5 weeks away, and if the Twins somehow stay within a few games of that last wild card spot, I really wonder what will happen.
 
The decent play and the current standings put the front office in a potentially interesting position. After 4 awful, awful seasons, the organization can hardly sit idly by if the team has another good few weeks and stays in the hunt. There are places for improvement -- bullpen, shortstop, designated hitter. But there are also guys the Twins drafted, developed, and have shown patience with, that deserve opportunities to succeed, fail, and learn in those positions. Isn't that, after all, a major component of a rebuild?
 
Sure, the best DH on the trade market makes the Twins better for the next 3 months, but that person does not make the Twins a World Series contender, or, perhaps, even likely to win the AL Central. And while that guy gets the at-bats, Vargas, and even Miguel Sano (who should be up relatively soon) sit and gather dust -- or at the very least, don't improve.
 
Last season especially, I loved to criticize Terry Ryan. It was easy. Low-hanging fruit sometimes. And Gardy. But I'm honestly not sure what buttons Terry Ryan should press this July if the team keeps hovering near the wild card, and I'm not sure how much Paul Molitor should press Ryan. I firmly believe that the organization owes -- yes, owes -- the fans something after the last 4 miserable seasons, and after ownership admitted not pushing enough in "the good years." But this is certainly not the year to go all-in -- to trade good or great prospects for a rental player, no matter how good that player is. For better or worse, we all -- fans and organization -- are way too far into this rebuild to scrap important segments of it for an unrealistic pennant chase.
 
Perhaps the best-case scenario is that, over the next month, the Twins slowly but steadily fall out of the wild card race. 2015 will still be a vast improvement over 2011-2014, and the rookies can get valuable, (relatively) low-stress experience. But that isn't very satisfying, is it? I want this team to keep it up. For the love of God, I want Mike Pelfrey to be the best pitcher in the American League, and I want Alex Meyer to come out of nowhere and become a great set-up man. I guess I want this raw, strange team to force Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor to get creative. Find out a way (not just Alex Meyer and Miguel Sano) to improve this team without sacrificing the future. Potentially a tough task, but it would be nice to have confidence in the front office once again.

While the Minnesota Twins are a homegrown team that relies heavily on players from their farm system to sustain success in the major leagues, reclamation projects are an important part of their team construction. Once-highly-touted prospects or players that have had some big league success and saw a dip in production with their former team for various reasons are often of interest to a team in a mid-sized city looking to get the most value out of their signings.
 
These players are relatively low-risk and high-reward based upon their perceived potential and low cost to sign. If they pan out, the organization looks smart for turning around the career of a player that was once considered a top prospect. If they don’t, they can be released for relatively little cost to the team other than the cost of giving playing time to a struggling player.
 
For a team like the Twins, who play in a mid-sized market and have relatively parsimonious ownership, this is a way to get potentially high-end talent without high cost or long term commitment. Pelfrey, a high draft pick who had two strong years as a member of the New York Mets, signed to a one-year, $4 million deal in 2013 following Tommy John surgery. Then, in a much scrutinized move, was re-signed for two years, $11 million following a tough first year.
 
Fifteen million dollars is nothing to sneeze at, but it is relatively cheap for a former first round pick who had two strong seasons as a member of the Mets in 2008 and 2010 — so long as he pitches like the player he can be.
Pelfrey was awful in his first year with the Twins. He came back from Tommy John surgery faster than expected, pushing himself to get back on the mound against doctor’s orders, and felt the effects of accelerating his return timetable. He was 5-13 with a 5.19 ERA (79 ERA+), pitching 152.3 innings in 29 starts, making the $11 million extension he received the year after that much more perplexing. “He’s coming off Tommy John, he came back quickly, and we thought, ‘Okay, that’s a good starting point, but there’s more to come.’ That’s the reason,” Twins general manager Terry Ryan said when asked why the team re-signed Pelfrey. “And he showed some flashes, and he certainly showed the velocity and stuff like that, so we thought, ‘All right, he’s over the hump on the Tommy John response,’ and now all of a sudden we’re gonna get more. Well, unfortunately that didn’t happen.”
 
He only made five starts in the first year of his second contract, finishing last season with a 0-0 record, 7.99 ERA (50 ERA+) and only 23.2 innings pitched. “Last year was awful,” says Pelfrey, who has always been accountable, even during his most trying times with the Twins, “so this offseason I came in and worked my tail off to … honor that two-year deal and be the best I could, and I thought I put myself in a pretty good situation.”
 
Pelfrey has been the best pitcher in the starting rotation this year, going 5-3 with a 2.97 ERA (136 ERA+) in 13 starts. His play merits All-Star consideration and will likely garner a large contract for him in the offseason. A player playing out of his mind in a contract year is not unheard of — Joe Mauer hit .365/.444/.587 with 28 home runs the year before he signed his $184 million extension, and Kurt Suzuki made his first All-Star team on a one-year deal last season — and Pelfrey was certainly upset when he was assigned to the bullpen out of Spring Training, perhaps providing an incentive for him to pitch well in the rotation.
 
Pelfrey, however, attributes his success to three things: He’s in good health, his split-finger has given him the “pitch that he’s lacked for 30 years,” and his sinker is much better. “First time in a couple years, maybe since Tommy John, I don’t have to make my sinker move,” he says. “I can just throw it, and it has that natural sink, which it always had before.”
 
Pelfrey has had a split-finger since 2010, a year in which he went 15-9 with a 3.66 ERA (107 ERA+), but he had it revamped by bullpen coach Eddie Guardado in Spring Training this year. “To be honest with you, during Spring Training we’re watching these guys throw in the spring, and he’s throwing his splitty, and I looked at him and, jokingly, I go, ‘What is that pitch?’” says Guardado, chuckling. “He goes, ‘It’s my split finger, dawg.’ And I go, ‘That ain’t gonna work.”
 
Guardado says sometimes he has trouble working with veteran pitchers, given that they have had a track record of success and are often stuck in their ways, but Pelfrey didn’t take much time to get the split-finger down. By the end of Spring Training he was throwing it with ease, giving him a pitch that falls out of the strike zone, which complements his mid-90s fastball, curveball and sinker. “It’s like a new toy,” says Guardado, “He worked with it every day, and I just showed him the grip. Did we talk about it a little bit? Yeah, absolutely. But he did it all on his own. I’d like to take the credit, but he’s a hard-worker, man, so it’s all good.”
 
The split-finger, complemented by a naturally moving sinker, has given Pelfrey more confidence on the mound. His usually plodding pace has been improved upon. In many ways, the Twins have the pitcher they’ve always wanted right now. Health is always a concern for players, especially pitchers, but it’s rare for a veteran player like Pelfrey to all of a sudden have another weapon in his arsenal. It’s easy to look back and say it was a good signing now, but it took some fortitude and, frankly, stubbornness for the team to retain him after a tough first year.
 
It wasn’t just his potential, though, that enticed the Twins; they also liked his leadership. “It doesn’t hurt,” says Ryan. “It’s always nice to have a little bit of that veteran presence in any part of your club, especially when you’re talking about the rest of that starting staff, they’re relatively young.”
 
He was given a corner locker in the team clubhouse, and according to his teammates, he’s very approachable and has a way about him of offering constructive criticism without making a struggling teammate feel the need to get defensive. “He’s easy to talk to, he’ll come up to talk to you about certain things he sees, and he’s definitely a leader,” says Kyle Gibson, 27, who is in his third year with the team. “I think he approaches every situation like that very well. He’s not gonna come up to you and say, ‘Hey, you were really bad today, and this is what I saw.’ He’s gonna ask you questions, he’s gonna try to approach it in the most mature way possible, because that’s the kind of guy he is.”
 
Gibson, like Pelfrey, is a sinkerball pitcher who has undergone Tommy John surgery. He says that the two were able to speak freely about the difficulty of coming back, as well as the mental hurdles every player has to go through during the ups and downs of a season. “He’s been a guy who I’ve talked to about learning how to attack with my fastball a little bit better at certain times,” says Gibson. “I’m always trying to talk to him about something just because I feel like going through the surgery, whether it’s how we were feeling last year or the year before, I’m always a guy who’s looking to learn something, and that’s a great guy to learn from.”
 
In some ways it’s unfortunate that Pelfrey is coming into his own in a contract year at age 31. He’s a Scott Boras client, so he’s unlikely to come back on a discount, and the Twins suddenly have plenty of depth in the starting rotation. Still, for the time being he’s one of the best pitchers in the league, and it couldn’t have come at a better time. The team is finally competitive again, Phil Hughes is off to a slow start, so the team is in need of an ace, and Pelfrey has no doubt left a meaningful mark on the younger pitchers, especially Gibson. “So far I’m glad that it’s working out,” says Pelfrey, “but there’s a lot of baseball left, so we’ll just keep it going.”
 
This article was originally published on the Cold Omaha section of 105TheTicket.com.
 
Tune in to The Wake Up Call every Sunday at 8:00 am to hear the crew break down the week in Minnesota sports.
 
Follow Tom on Twitter @tschreier3.

Earlier this season, the Minnesota Twins signed second basemen Brian Dozier to a four-year, $20 million extension. In doing so, the Twins locked down their star second basemen into the foreseeable future, and bought out some of his arbitration years in the process. Now over a third of the way into the 2015 season, the contract that seemed to be a slam dunk, has turned out to be exactly that in the early going.
Despite Dozier being a fan favorite, and one of the Twins best players, there was some initial criticism of the Twins decision. While the contract did buy out arbitration years, the Twins failed to eat away at any free agency time Dozier would have. In doing the deal this way, Minnesota was locked into a $5 million average annual value until 2018, but Dozier would then be able to be immediately eligible for free agency.
 
Minnesota was seemingly banking on Dozier being a highly productive player over the course of the next four seasons, while hoping that the loyalty paid early on may offer them a hometown discount when and if that was needed in the long term. So far, both sides are putting their best foot forward.
Obviously it's still extremely early in the life of the contract, but Dozier has broken out even bigger in 2015. After looking the part of an All-Star in 2014, the Twins second basemen owns a .265/.346/.538 slash line this season, all career highs. He leads the team in HR (13), runs scored (51), on base percentage (.346), slugging (.538), on base plus slugging (.883), hits (63), doubles (20 which also leads the American League), triples (3), and walks (27).
It's pretty easy to suggest that Dozier is off to a good start, but to put it into even further context, where he may be going is all the more impressive. As Twins Daily's Nick Nelson notes, Dozier is on pace for 53 doubles, 34 HR, 133 runs scored. Those are marks no Major League Baseball second basemen has topped since 2011. Through just 61 games in 2015, Dozier has been worth 2.6 fWAR and is on pace for a 6.4 fWAR (previous career high is 4.8 in 2014).
 
Heading into the season, one of the biggest worries for Dozier was his tendency to sell out and pull the ball. Tony Blengino looked at Dozier's pull tendencies for Fangraphs and suggested he may be about to quickly decline from a ceiling he had reached. So far, the Twins second basemen has stuck with the same process, and the results have followed suit.
In 2015, Dozier has pulled a career high 62.6% of the balls he has put in play. However, Dozier has also recorded a 30.5% hard hit percentage, which is also a career high. While Dozier is hitting just 14.4% of his balls in play to the opposite field (a career low), he's supplemented it by hitting a career high 26.3% of balls in play as line drives.
 
On top of being great across the board in 2015, Dozier has actually silenced critics in regards to one of his most common knocks. Discredited for having an often low average (which matters very little), Dozier has actually struck out a career high 19.9% this season while batting .21 points above his career mark.
At this point, it's pretty apparent Brian Dozier has been nothing short of spectacular at the plate for the Twins. He's been the power hitter they didn't know they had, and he's gotten it done in multiple facets of his plate appearances. On the defensive side of things, Dozier isn't too shabby either.
 
Errors haven't been an issue for Dozier since moving from shortstop to second base following the 2012 season. This season, he has just one in 61 games, putting him on pace for 2.5 on the season (would be a career low). He currently has been worth one DRS (defensive run saved) while being on pace for a career best 1.9 UZR/150 (Ultimate Zone Rating runs above average per 150 games).
Looking at what Dozier has been compared to the rest of the major league second basemen, he ranks behind only Jason Kipnis (3.7 fWAR) and Dee Gordon (2.8 fWAR). He is out-slugging both players by at least .034 points and leads all second basemen in home runs (next closest is Dustin Pedroia with 9).
 
Taking a top down view and assessing everything as a whole, Fangraphs puts Brian Dozier's current value in dollars at $21.2 million, or roughly $1 million more than the entirety of his four year contract. Whether you adhere to advanced analytics or not, the eye test has corroborated the numbers this season, Brian Dozier is very good. At this point, it looks like the Twins got a steal, and if this continues for even half of the contract, both parties are in a place to benefit greatly from one another.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz