frightwig

What about Hughes' track record would lead anyone to expect that he should've sustained 90% of his peak through the next four years, or even one more year? And what made him such a necessity? Even in that career year with the crazy K/BB ratio, he had a 3.52 ERA, 111 ERA+. Good, but not an ace. And after winning 70 games that year, it's not like the rest of the team looked to be on the verge of becoming a serious contender soon. The 2014 rotation after Hughes was Gibson, Nolasco, Correia, Pino, Deduno, etc. Pretty poor, and not much depth to build on. Meanwhile, the offense built around Mauer-Plouffe-Dozier was average that year. Maybe you could dream of the lineup getting better as Santana-Vargas-Arcia-Hicks matured and Sano-Buxton-Rosario were ready to come up--but then all the more reason to sell high on some veteran assets in preparation for when that day might come in 2017-18. Of course they never did commit to a full rebuild/youth movement. They acted like giving extensions to Perkins and Hughes, and signing a few more mid-market free agent pitchers, was key to their future. And here we are.

Phil Hughes with the Yankees had a 95 ERA+, 4.31 FIP--and that included his one big year there when he pitched mostly out of the bullpen. I know that some fans here had really talked themselves into Hughes when he first signed, so his first season was especially exciting because it made them look smart. "I said that he was a diamond in the rough, and, look, I was right!" It would've been prudent, though, for Terry Ryan to sell high or at least wait and see if Hughes could sustain that breakout success for another year. He already had Hughes signed for two more years, anyway. It didn't take hindsight to see this. You only had to look at his history to that point. Of course, Terry Ryan rushed to pat himself on the back for his big find and gave Hughes a raise & an extension. And the next year, Hughes had a 92 ERA+, 4.70 FIP--just about what his track record in New York might have led anyone to expect. If Ryan just had enough sense to wait through that one season before making any further commitments on Hughes, the club wouldn't be stuck with a back-end starter struggling to come back from injury now.

It's debatable whether a lot of blowouts really makes Pythag useless; one might point out that a team that gets blown out all that often probably isn't really a good team. Likewise, great teams do tend to win a lot of laughers. But BaseRuns goes beyond that and looks at how many runs a team is expected to score or allow--this is where the 2015 Twins really got lucky, and where the 2016 Twins, though they were genuinely bad, were also awfully unlucky. By that measure, too, this year's team has been in way over their heads, mainly in April/May. As Nick pointed out, since the high-water mark in late May, the team's record has regressed back to its average level since 2011. And, hey, it so happens that this matches their BaseRuns and Pythag on the season, as well. I think we have some fair indicators of what we can expect to see in the rest of the season. Honestly, the offense looked pretty good in May when Mauer was on a tear and 5-6 other guys were grooving at the same time. But so far that is the only month when the offense was above-average. In July, their second-best month of the season, the wRC+ is 96--and that's despite Buxton and Rosario having a big month, while Dozier, Sano, Mauer, and Kepler having been swinging good bats, too. The lineup has potential, for sure, but right now it's just missing something necessary to be really GOOD. Meanwhile, the pitching--we know that it's bad, right? Although Mejia has shown some apparent progress of late, Berrios and Santana have regressed badly, Garcia is a back-end rental, and the #5 spot is still a mess. Kintzler and Rogers have done well in holding leads, Belisle has improved the last couple months, and I like Hildenberger. But it's a shallow pen, and lately we may be seeing the start of what can happen when you depend too much on a pair of low-K/GB relievers to hold the line on every late lead. In all, it's a poor staff that probably isn't going to be getting better down the stretch. The most realistic outcome is 75-79 wins, even if the front office stands pat at the deadline. Who cares if selling puts them below 75 wins this season? It's a development year, either way. What really matters is whatever Falvine do now to build toward the window when the young core is hitting its prime.

The Twins have surprised us, certainly, but as in 2015 we should acknowledge that it's just because of cluster luck. Today the team is 49-51, but their BaseRuns & Pythag is 43-57, just under the .430 mark. Surprise, surprise. The club that made few changes in the offseason is running out the same quality of team that we've been watching for several years, now. It's a blessing that they've fallen flat as the trade deadline approaches, really, as long as Falvine take it as cover to sell off some assets. Hopefully they get some quality young talent back this week, and then get to work on reshaping the team & organization next winter.

Cleveland pitching has a 3.86 ERA (2nd-AL), 3.62 FIP (1st-AL), 3.55 xFIP (1st-AL). It's true that Bauer & Tomlin have been scuffling--although their peripherals aren't so bad, and Bauer's FIP/xFIP actually compares favorably to the Twins' best starter, Berrios. And Salazar has been out, but Rotowire noted yesterday, "Salazar (shoulder) threw six shutout innings Sunday in a rehab assignment with Triple-A Columbus, allowing just three hits and three walks while striking out nine." So he looks ready to return, soon. Meanwhile, Kluber and Carrasco have been flying high, and Clevinger has been an effective fill-in, maybe even better than Berrios or All-Star Erv. We wish the Twins staff were so troubled.

Twins also just had the good fortune to run out the top of their rotation, Berrios-Santana-Gibson, against Houston's back end, Charlie Morton, Joe Musgrove, and Mike Fiers--yet still lost 2 of 3. They won a 4-2 game against Musgrove, a guy with an ERA over 6, while Santana danced around trouble--2 ER on 5 hits + 5 walks, 3 strikeouts, in 6 innings. If they ran that matchup 100 times, that outcome might not happen again. Anyway, they certainly wouldn't even get that matchup again in the playoffs.

Also, in the last 30 days, the offense has 80 wRC+, 1.1 fWAR, while the pitching has a 5.30 FIP, 0.0 fWAR. The Twins certainly don't look like a team that's gearing up to take advantage of an Indians stumble or claim a WC spot. It looks like the fade has already begun. Even if they pull out of this long skid, they still have the worst staff in the league, led by an All-Star with a 4.77 FIP, 4.90 xFIP, and a youngster with a 4.02 FIP, 4.45 xFIP (and generally neither has pitched well in the past month). The offense currently ranks in the middle of the AL, with one young star and handful of guys who are... kind of middling. Brandon Warne today suggested that Rosario may be the second-most dangerous bat in the Twins lineup--and he may be right! But if the second-most dangerous bat in the lineup is a streaky LF with a 105 wRC+, what does that say to you? It doesn't tell me that this club should be a deadline buyer. If they decide to stand pat, and maybe trade veteran assets in the winter, all right. But honestly I think it would be for the best if the Twins get their asses kicked in the next few series, to give Falvine cover to trade Santana, Kintzler, and maybe Dozier, now.

From the other side of it, if I were a GM who had a good, young pitcher with a few years of arbitration still ahead, I wouldn't even consider trading him just for a Nick Gordon-type prospect. You'd have to offer me Gordon, or someone better, plus at least one good pitching prospect, and preferably another, if my guy is really good. I doubt we'll be seeing any established, "controllable" unicorns moved for just a Top 40 prospect, or in any deals that don't make you sit up straight. But maybe some kind of 3-way deal where Santana or Dozier gets moved and the third team supplies prospects to get a unicorn to the Twins? That could be interesting.

Really, it's more like, I expect the team to wind up with 75-78 wins. The offense has been about average (100 wRC+) coming into today, but the pitching is terrible--even worse than last year, by FIP/xFIP. (Even Berrios has a 4.53 xFIP, so I'd expect some significant regression from him in the next few months.) They've been riding atop the division because they beat up on the Royals coming out of the gate, while the Indians got off to a slow start. Are the Twins genuinely good? Even Nick seems to be saying, no, not really. So for me, it's just a question of what I'd like to see happen, so that the Twins might be better in the next year or two. For some people, another 2015 season would be fun. Trade for a reliever or two, call up the kids, and see what happens! But the fringe contender, "hey, as long as we're hanging around .500, we're sorta in the WC race, despite this wretched pitching, so the club better not trade Dozier or Santana," until the team winds up with 77 wins (FG projection today), or 83 wins, is not so enjoyable for me. More importantly, in the big picture, it's counterproductive to the club's longterm goals if the front office acts like "we're real contenders now!" So, yeah, I do hope that they go into a skid, or start playing to their Pythag or BaseRuns levels, sooner than later. In the long run, I think we're all enjoy the Twins more, that way.

Right now, the Twins have a .434 Pythag, a 70-win pace over 162 games. Playing at that level the rest of the season would result in 75 wins. That's basically a regression to the mean on bad luck from last season plus a bump from good luck and/or an improved defense, Sano stepping up, and a few other guys getting better. I'd say that the rebuild is going fairly close to schedule, really. Assuming that the Twins won't enjoy the crazy cluster-luck of 2015, they'll probably need to find another 10-12 wins to get into the WC game. Is it worth going in big as a buyer, or rushing a couple AA pitching prospects, to chase that goal this year? It seems like a longshot to me, even given their current spot in the standings. Honestly, I think it would be for the best if the team hit a long skid over the next few weeks, so there's no doubt about whether Falvine should be buyers or sellers.

The TR move would be, "This signing has worked out so well, why trade him? In fact, let's talk extension!" I get the feeling that Falvine know it would be wise to sell high on Santana, but maybe, as with Dozier, the asking price could be so high that no move gets made in the end. We might just get the regressed Santana for the next year and a half, until he finally leaves and the Twins collect the compensation pick.

Moving Hughes (or Gibson, or maybe even Mejia) to the pen is worth trying. I'd rather leave Duffey and Kintzler alone for now. Having a groundball pitcher come in with runners on base can be helpful, of course, but often in those situations you'd also like a strikeout or two. The trouble with Kintzler is that he doesn't work with much margin for error. So probably the best place for him is the 9th, where he can start with a clean slate and usually has some kind of lead. If Levine wants to sift through the cheap cast-offs, fine, but generally I'm with David HK on the bullpen issue. The pitching staff as a whole is pretty bad--too many problems to fix on the fly to save this season. Focus on development. It seems like that was the plan before the season, anyway.

Also, in the history of the draft there have been just 3 high school pitchers taken at #1. David Clyde, 1973 Brien Taylor, 1991 Brady Aiken, 2014 A small sample, but one might say that there's a reason for that--and the results of those few picks have not been encouraging. Clyde was a hyped phenom (3 ER in 148 IP, and 5 no-hitters!) from a Houston high school who went straight to the majors because the Rangers owner was desperate for an attendance draw. In his third season, he had the first of two shoulder injuries and never developed. Taylor had two good seasons at A+/AA, but then hurt his shoulder in a fight and never recovered. He didn't pitch above Class A again. Aiken was picked 1st by the Astros but didn't sign--partly because there were already reports of elbow inflammation. The next winter, he had to come out of his first start with a baseball academy because of elbow pain; the next month, he had Tommy John surgery. The Indians drafted him with the 17th pick in 2015, anyway, but he's been struggling in the minors. This season at Class A, he has a 4.46 ERA with a 7.0 BB/9 and 5.4 K/9. Here's a list of high school pitchers taken in the regular 1st round, ordered by rWAR, with at least 20 rWAR career--that seems like a fair cut-off for "very good career." Roy Halladay, 1995 (17th pick) C. C. Sabathia, 1998 (20th) Frank Tanana, 1971 (13th) Clayton Kershaw, 2006 (7th) Zack Greinke, 2002 (6th) Dwight Gooden, 1982 (5th) Cole Hamels, 2002 (17th) Jon Matlack, 1967 (4th) Adam Wainwright, 2002 (29th) Josh Beckett, 1999 (2nd) Rick Rhoden, 1971 (20th) Bruce Hurst, 1976 (22nd) Chris Carpenter, 1993 (15th) Rick Sutcliffe, 1974 (21st) Matt Cain, 2002 (25th) Madison Bumgarner, 2007 (10th) Alex Fernandez, 1988 (24th) Kerry Wood, 1995 (4th) Mike Morgan, 1978 (4th) Gary Nolan, 1966 (13th) Joe Coleman, 1965 (3rd) Bill Gullickson, 1977 (2nd) Scott Kazmir, 2002 (17th) Jon Garland, 1997 (10th) J. R. Richard, 1969 (2nd) John Danks, 2003 (9th) Scott McGregor, 1972 (14th) That's 27 pitchers, 13 drafted with a Top 10 pick; 16 of the 27 (from Bumgarner on up) have more than 30 rWAR. There are a handful of guys drafted since Bumgarner in 2007 who may be starting to emerge as good pitchers, after several years of development, but we'll see. I think Jose Fernandez (2011, 14th) was the only clear star, but of course he's gone, now. Rick Porcello (2007, 27th) probably will get on the list, although he has been a below-average pitcher for most of his career, until his breakout Cy Young season last year at age 27, too late for the Tigers to reap the rewards of drafting him. So, that's the history. Once in awhile, clubs find a high school phenom who isn't derailed early on by injury or personal problems. Some of them might not get hurt or get into cocaine or alcohol until after they're stars! Some might even develop into stars and stay with their original team for most of their career! You hope to find the next Roy Halladay, who had his breakout season at age 25 and stayed with the Blue Jays through age 32. Better yet, maybe, Clayton Kershaw and you can afford to keep him! That's the hope, but the odds are long--especially long with young pitchers.

Sano has 2.3 fWAR through 34 games, 2nd best in the AL and on pace for 10.96 WAR/162. If he keeps it up the whole year, and never slumps or gets hurt, obviously that would be a huge lift. Does it seem probable? Steamer projects 3.3 fWAR the rest of the season; ZiPS just 2.3 fWAR. He may not slow down that much, but he'll probably cool off to some significant degree. Something like 4-5 WAR the rest of the season seems more likely than 8+ WAR. The rest of the lineup already seems to be performing about as well as I'd expect. Dozier has a 115 wRC+, matching his ZiPS projection for RoS and a bit higher than Steamer. Kepler and Rosario are meeting their projections. Vargas probably won't get much better if he doesn't get back to drawing walks. Grossman does draw walks but doesn't bring much else to the game. Polanco's line might improve some if his BABIP goes up, but his peripherals are as good as you could reasonably expect. Castro is what he is. Mauer has been hot in May, while pulling a lot of groundballs but posting a 50% HR/FB (LOL). Do I believe that Good Joe Mauer is back to stay? Come on. I think Buxton is the one hitter who could get significantly better this season. On the other hand, his 96 wRC+ this month is already higher than his projections, and he's stopped drawing any walks for some reason. .242/.242/.515 (0 walks, 29.4 K%, 25% HR/FB) may be about as good as he gets this year. On the pitching side... yeah, I don't see how it's not going to be the undoing of the team. Of course Santana is a prime candidate for big regression, even if he's not traded in July. Santiago is a back-end guy who depends on the team defense to prop him up--and it's been great, but he can't rely on the defense to always be there for him, as much as he does. Hughes is barely hanging on. If they can fix Gibson, great, but he was a marginal starter last year, too. Berrios had a nice outing in the bright glare and shadows last Saturday afternoon (although his xFIP for the game was 5.64), but after last season I'm still skeptical that he can make the jump until I see him pull it together for at least a couple months. Meanwhile, the bullpen is one of the weakest in the league but somehow has been getting by because it has just 3 blown saves (tied for 3rd-AL). You know that's not gonna last. There is some good young talent on the roster, and maybe the Twins can be contenders within a few years if Sano/Buxton/Kepler/Polanco reach their potential and Falvine are able to overhaul the pitching staff, but is it happening this year? It would take a lot of luck, and Falvine choosing to keep Dozier and Santana--and I'm not sure that I want to see that happen, either. Honestly, I hope the regression kicks in well before the trade deadline, so there's no doubt about whether the Twins should be sellers.

Sano could be a legit top-tier hitter, but his current .440 BABIP is kinda crazy. Santana has a 4.17 FIP, 4.38 xFIP (not far from his career levels); he's been getting very lucky with the BABIP and LOB%. I've said before, he's a fine mid-rotation guy, but no, he's not a Top 20 pitcher or an "ace." Santiago has an unsustainable 5.8% HR/FB--and as a flyball pitcher, he's been helped a lot by the OF defense. I could see him settling into an ERA just above or below 4, despite an ugly xFIP, if the regular OF trio stays in the lineup all season. But he could also be in real trouble if Buxton goes down (injury or demotion) for awhile. Dozier may heat up a little (ZiPS and Steamer project 107-113 wRC+ RoS), but his current 99 wRC+ isn't far below his performance in 2015. I doubt the 132 wRC+ of last year will return. I've believed for awhile that he's likely to fall off the table in his early 30's, like Dan Uggla. Could the decline already be happening? We'll see.

It's true that Kintzler has been skating on a low BABIP and HR/9, and a high LOB%, but if the Twins actually can identify a more dominant, reliable reliever, do you really want to put him in the 9th-inning closer box rather than using him in high-leverage, decisive moments whenever they may come up? And then do you really want Molitor calling on Kintzler to put out fires in the 6th-8th? I'm sure that he'll continue to make fans nervous, and he may even have a stretch where he blows 3-4 games, but I don't think the Twins are so deep in pitching that switching Kintzler out of the closer role is going to help. Limiting a better reliever to Save Situations, and bringing in Kintzler into situations with RISP, may even hurt the team.

The Twins don't like to say so explicitly, but I think Polanco had been playing 2B in the minors mostly because the club had been planning to trade Dozier all along. He's actually looked pretty good at SS so far this season, anyway, but if Dozier is gone in the near future, I could still see the club moving Polanco to 2B while Escobar holds down SS until Gordon is ready for his chance.

I like Erv. He's been a good signing for the Twins--and I even drafted him in fantasy this year, so know that I'm not, "Ahhh, he sucks." But we should look at more than his ERA when evaluating him. These are his seasonal lines since coming to Minnesota: 2015: 4.00 ERA, 4.17 FIP, 4.42 xFIP, 6.83 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, 1.00 HR/9 2016: 3.38 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 4.21 xFIP, 7.40 K/9, 2.63 BB/9, 0.94 HR/9 2017: 0.41 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 3.77 xFIP, 6.14 K/9, 2.05 BB/9, 0.41 HR/9 Total: 3.38 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 4.25 xFIP, 7.11 K/9, 2.72 BB/9, 0.93 HR/9 His 3.87 FIP ranks 33rd among 80 qualifying starters in that time; his 4.25 xFIP ranks 65th. I'd say that he's a fine mid-rotation starter who doesn't strike out a lot of batters (7.11 K/9 ranks 64th of 80) but has decent control (2.72 BB/9 ranks 45th). Indeed, he's done pretty well at keeping the ball in the park--0.93 HR/9 ranks 18th and 9.5% HR/FB ranks 6th--and his .272 BABIP ranks 11th. Possibly that's a testament to his sinker, but I'd also wonder what may happen, as he hits his mid/late 30's, if he loses a little zip and batters start to barrel up on him better. Those HR rates are probably going to regress, anyway, and his BABIP may rise while his K/9 may dip, too. Should the Twins want to keep riding him through the next few years at age 34-36, or sell high for a prospect or two? If he's hot in July, I'll be hoping to see the Twins cash in.

The Cubs also tanked 2-3 years after hiring Epstein/Hoyer, before spending a lot of money when they felt ready to make a run. (A fivethirtyeight.com article called it the biggest talent haul by spending spree for a championship club since the '97 Marlins; Theo's 2004 Red Sox title was another notable store-bought trophy.) It looks like Falvey really hopes to trade his veteran assets, or unload guys like Plouffe who are just in the way, and get with the full youth movement as soon as possible. If that means another last-place finish and more high draft picks next year, that ought to suit the front office plans just fine. Whether the Twins will start spending big to fill out the roster around the young core in a few years, well... we shall see. And about the Twins just "giving Dozier away"... Remember that Jose De Leon was the #23 BA prospect before last season, when he'd just split his year between A+/AA. In 2016 at AAA, he showed excellent command + a high strikeout rate and ability to get a lot of pop-ups. Even in his 17 IP with the Dodgers, where he was dinged by high HR rates and a low LOB%, his swing-and-miss rate in the strike zone compared favorably to the best pitchers in the game. The kid controls the zone and misses bats. This is what we want. I get the desire to hedge your bets by snagging some promising secondary pieces in a deal, and I don't blame the Twins for wanting to get maximum value off Dozier's big season. On the other hand, we know how streaky Dozier can be. Maybe he carries his hot bat into next July, and maybe there will be a few contenders lining up to bid on him then. But would you have a lot of confidence in making that bet? There's a fair chance that, like he has before, Dozier slumps for 2-3 months and the idea of getting a Top 25 prospect for him at the trade deadline is just a joke.

Over the past 3 seasons, Mauer has hit .267/.353/.380, 100 wRC+ (2.8 fWAR, 5.9 rWAR). 2015 was the one season of the three in which he didn't miss a significant amount of games, but then Fangraphs says that he was practically replacement-level that year. I suppose that's about what we can expect from him in the next couple seasons. A good OBP, light pop, quality defense, probably some nagging injuries. Not a total hole in the lineup, but below-average production at 1B. I'd be glad to see All-Star Joe come back, of course, even if it would present the front office with a problem after 2018.

I might add that the Rangers lineup this year rated 9th in the AL by wRC+ and fWAR, and the pitching rated 14th by FIP/xFIP, 13th by fWAR. Last year they had similar marks, and in 2014 both their lineup and pitching rated last in the league by fWAR. This season, they managed to outpace their Pythag and BaseRuns records by 13 wins, thanks to good luck and, maybe, strong defense, but they're probably on their way down the ladder next year. That said, they did win a couple of pennants while Levine was AGM under Jon Daniels; he's been part of an operation that nearly won it all, 5-6 years ago. His bio at the Rangers' site says, "He assists General Manager Jon Daniels in all Major League Operations responsibilities, including player acquisitions, roster composition, contract negotiations, statistical and financial analyses and the day-to-day management of the baseball operations department." Most of his background appears to be in business administration and marketing--I would guess that his main responsibilities might continue to be in those areas. Negotiating contracts, managing day-to-day operations. Whether he has anything close to final authority, or even a lot of sway, in decisions about acquisitions and personnel, we may never know.

How is the Pres/GM structure expected to set up? Falvey organizes the plan and Levine makes the deals?

I don't expect any GM to be a perfect genius-god. I just have some issue with the premise that Falvey has been involved in, or learned from, a whole bunch of shrewd moves that built the 2016 AL pennant-winners--and may be carried over to rebuild the Twins. The nice thing about the Andrew Miller deal is that it shows the Indians appreciate how much it helps to have strong setup men. Well, that's not really an innovative idea--but maybe the idea that your best reliever should be in a flexible setup role will catch on. And if you're running a club and think, This is Our Year, maybe it makes sense to cash in a big haul of prospects for the Proven Veteran who will make your bullpen invincible. If he helps you win the pennant, congrats, you're a hero. Trouble is, relievers tend to be volatile. There aren't many you can count on to dominate, or even just be good, year after year, much less game after game. Who knows, Andrew Miller may even blow a key game or two in the World Series, or possibly blow out his arm while Tito leans on him to put out every fire next season. I mean, Greg Holland was awesome for 4 years, until he blew out his elbow, right? And then Joakim Soria was supposed to be the Proven Veteran help when KC signed him to a 3+ year deal to make up for the loss of Holland and the departed Ryan Madson. By September, Royals fans on Twitter were raging at Ned Yost whenever he brought Soria into the game. Relievers are valuable, but also fungible. Paying top dollar or big prospect packages to chase after the Proven Veteran reliever isn't something I want to see the Twins doing, generally. I hope we're not looking at the Miller trade as a reliever acquisition blueprint for the Twins to follow. The next Andrew Miller/Wade Davis is probably a currently flailing starter, just as those guys were, once.

One concern here: a lot of the foundation for this Indians team was built by Mark Shapiro when Falvey was an intern or an assistant in the amateur & international scouting department. Since Falvey rose to more prominent roles in the front office (co-director of baseball operations in 2012, assistant GM this year), the Tribe's acquisitions record isn't as impressive. In 2012 FA's: Most notably Johnny Damon, Dan Wheeler, and Casey Kotchman. None really panned out. Trades: Steven Wright to Red Sox for Lars Anderson, who never pitched in the majors after the trade, later thrown into the Trevor Bauer deal. Wright has gone on to post a 3.58 ERA in 263.2 IP with Boston, and was an All-Star this year. Clearly, this was a mistake. Draft: 1st round pick Tyler Naquin, who just had a fine rookie year at age 25 (2.5 fWAR, 0.9 rWAR), although they passed on Corey Seager, Michael Wacha, Marcus Stroman, Stephen Piscotty, and Lance McCullers in that round. 2013 FA's: Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher, Scott Kazmir, Rich Hill, Jason Giambi, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Matt Capps. They got one good year, out of three, from Swisher. Kazmir had a mediocre season, did better after leaving for Oakland. Hill had a poor season, left for Boston after the year. Bourn was an expensive bust. Giambi was washed up. Matsuzaka and Capps washed out. Trades: Esmil Rogers to Jays for Mike Aviles and Yan Gomes. This looked pretty shrewd in 2013-14, although now it seems that Gomes may have been a flash in the pan. In a 3-team deal, they traded Shin-Soo Choo, Jason Donald, Tony Sipp, and Lars Anderson for Trevor Bauer, Matt Albers, Brian Shaw, and Drew Stubbs. They basically swapped Sipp for Shaw and one year of Albers, and sold high on Choo in exchange for Bauer, a highly-rated pitching prospect with control problems and questions about his temperament and character. Four seasons later, Bauer is a #4 starter who will go down in 2016 postseason lore, but for the wrong reasons. As things stand, honestly, it doesn't look like they got great value out of the chips they were holding here. Jeanmar Gomez to Pirates for Quincy Latimore. A mistake. Gomez has been a good reliever for Pitt & Philly, while Latimore was a bust. SS prospect Juan Herrera to Cardinals for Marc Rzepczynski. Good short-term value here. Draft: 1st round (5th pick) on Clint Frazier, rated #53 prospect before this season by Baseball Prospectus, #44 by Baseball America, traded last summer to the Yankees in the Andrew Miller deal. In the 4th round, they picked pitcher Kyle Crockett, who made a splash in 30 IP as a reliever in 2014, but has struggled to stick in the bullpen since. Lost Hector Rondon to Cubs in the Rule 5 draft. Oops. 2014 FA: David Murphy, Shaun Marcum, John Axford, Jeff Francouer, Nyjer Morgan, Aaron Harang, George Kottaras, Mark Lowe. Murphy did fine at the plate for 1.5 years, although his defense wiped out his value. Axford was so-so, but waived in August. Morgan played in just 15 games, Kottaras played in 10 before he was waived. Marcum missed the season. Harang and Francouer didn't make it out of spring training. Trades: Drew Stubbs to Rockies for Josh Outman. Traded in one poor year from Stubbs (who rebounded the next year in Colorado) for one meh half-season from Outman (sold for cash to the Yankees that summer). Justin Masterson to Cardinals for James Ramsey. Sold low on Masterson for a bust. Asdrubal Cabrera to Nationals for Zach Walters. Again sold low for a bust. Vinnie Pestano to Angels for Michael Clevenger. Swapped a reliever for a pitching prospect who had a 5.26 ERA this season, in his rookie year at age 25. Draft: 1st round (21st) on Bradley Zimmer, OF, rated #23 prospect before this season by BP, #31 by BA. Had a good season in AA at age 23, but struggled in 150 PA at AAA. 2015 FA: Gavin Floyd, Bruce Chen, Shaun Marcum, Jerry Sands, Anthony Swarzak... nothing to see here. Trades: Joey Wendle to A's for Brandon Moss. Swapped a former 6th round pick/middle infielder for a poor half-season from Moss. Wendle had a 69 OPS+ for Oakland this September, at age 26. Brandon Moss to Cardinals for Rob Kaminsky. Somehow they sold low on Moss to get a 20 year-old pitcher who had been a 1st round (28th) pick in the 2013 draft--and was having a good year in High A. This year in AA, Kaminsky had a 3.28 ERA in 25 starts. Then again, he had just a 6.0 K/9. So his ceiling probably isn't that high. David Murphy to Angels for Eric Stamets. Swapped the last couple months of Murphy's career for a SS who hasn't done much in the minors. Marc Rzepczynski to Padres for Abraham Almonte. Their scouts must have liked Almonte, I guess. Almonte is a toolsy guy who occasionally looks good for short periods (I saw him when he came up with Seattle), but may just be a 4-A player. He has a 91 OPS+ in 118 games with Cleveland. Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher to Braves for Chris Johnson. Cutting their losses, is all. Draft: Ist round (17th) on Brady Aiken, LHP. Rated #71 prospect by BA. Had a rough time in Rookie/Low A ball this season. Triston McKenzie, RHP, taken at the end of the supplemental round, pitched very well--especially at age 18. 2016 FA: Mike Napoli, Juan Uribe, Marlon Byrd, Joba Chamberlain, Tommy Hunter, Ross Detwiler, Shane Robinson, Robbie Grossman. Napoli was a veteran 1B/DH looking for a team that could use such a bat for a year, and Cleveland got him for $7M. But before we get too excited, note that he put up just a 104 OPS+ (1.0 fWAR, 1.0 rWAR) as a 1B/DH this season, and he hasn't really played well in this postseason, either. The rest of this group is a wash-out, pretty much, and it seems that they gave up on Robbie Grossman too easily. Trades: J.P. Feyereisen, Clint Frazier, Justus Sheffield, and Ben Heller to Yankees for Andrew Miller. Everybody is really psyched about Miller right now, because he's been so dominant in the playoffs (9 IP, but high-leverage!). But it's worth remembering that the Indians gave up a lot of talent for that relief ace. Frazier and Feyereisen are Top 100 Prospects, and Sheffield and Heller have very strong track records as relievers in the minors. If Miller helps Cleveland win a World Series, great, but in the long run the Yankees probably will be happy with this trade. To put it another way: this is a deal you might do if you're in 1st place and desperate for bullpen help, but it is not something you should ever do if you're rebuilding a club like the Twins. Colt Hynes to A's for Coco Crisp. Meh. Draft: 1st round (14th) on Will Benson, OF. Struggled in rookie ball this year, but he is just 18 years old. So that's mainly what the Indians front office has been doing the last 5 years, since Falvey moved into positions where he could be involved in maneuvers. Who knows, given full authority, maybe he will work wonders for the Twins. He came up in the scouting department, and Cleveland apparently has done fairly well in the draft. But judging from this front office track record of late, I don't see a lot that makes me think, if Falvey just keeps doing stuff like that, wow, the future in Minnesota looks bright.

I'd be fine with them sticking with Kintzler in the closer role for now. He'll probably regress unless he improves his 5.80 K/9, but he did fine in the role this season (3.15 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 3.48 xFIP). Let him ride as long as he's doing an adequate job, and focus on improving in the setup roles in the meantime. You want your best relievers in more flexible roles, anyway, right?