frightwig

Yes. If they were told about the Giants offer and did not counter with something structured like $260/7 + $60/3 + $40/3, then they weren't really trying. They were content with just releasing figures that looked fair in comparison to the Turner/Bogaerts deals, but didn't come close to closing the deal. "Twins were in the mix," again.

Also I would say that we've just seen Arraez's ceiling this year: good avg, sprays the ball around, light pop, not much value on defense. At some point by his early 30's, he'll be the same kind of player (especially with Rod Carew encouraging him to be like Rod Carew), but slower. If they can buy out a couple years of his free agency at relatively low cost, fine. But I don't think it's an imperative. Just as well if they wait and see how the next few years plays out. If they want to extend him before the 2025 season, I don't think the wait is likely to hurt them. He might even decline by then, or maybe they'll be thinking of him as a trade chip, anyway.

I think they also were able to get Mahle without giving up any top prospects (just former 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks, and only Encarnacion-Strand is having a really solid year, in AA) because they were aware that he'd been having shoulder problems. The Twins evidently like to target pitchers with questionable health, either recent injuries or surgeries, because they can get talent at a discount, hoping that the pitcher can avoid a more serious injury in the near future or they can catch the guy on the rebound. They see it as a market inefficiency. It's a risk, but a deliberate part of the plan. I get why that would be appealing to a front office that is trying to build a rotation on a mid-level budget, and hasn't had great pitching prospects ready to come up from the farm, but going after a Mahle like that isn't bold and aggressive. Getting Jorge Lopez, a failed SP who had 3 big months in the pen, but had been getting hammered in July, by trading last year's 3rd round pick and a teenage lottery ticket, isn't really so bold, either. That's taking a flyer on a couple of guys with red flags and hoping for the best. I'd like to see the Twins make a bold and aggressive move to improve the rotation next year. But that would mean spending more money, or trading top prospects or a player in the lineup with real value. They usually shy away from big longterm FA deals (the Correa deal essentially ensured that he could stay for one year if he delivered value, or might stay for 2-3 years if he fell short), and it's hard to see them trading top prospects or a good veteran like Polanco, either.

I suppose that this has occurred to Buxton and his agent, too. And if any deal would be absurdly reasonable for the club, why would he want to do it? He has all the leverage here. I think one, or maybe both sides, is probably lying to the media. In any case, the goal is probably just to let people think, "hey, we tried." Maybe Buxton would like the fans to believe that he's been absurdly reasonable in his efforts to stay in Minnesota, because he doesn't want to be seen as a greedy villain, particularly if he has to play another season with the Twins. Maybe his agent thinks it's a way to keep the lines open with the front office, too. Meanwhile, maybe the Twins like the story because, from their point of view, figures like 7 years and $100M for an oft-injured player really feels like a huge risk (even if the AAV isn't that high, the idea of committing to 7 years seems to give them the shivers), and they think the average fan could be persuaded to see it their way, too. As long as they can put together an alternate plan to field a winning team before too long, they'd probably be right about that.

If the Twins intend to be like "the Rays with money," then I'd expect that they will try to avoid expensive long-term deals with free agents or their own players who are near free agency. They'll save the long-term commitments for youngsters who can be locked up at low cost, and the expensive AAV's will be reserved for contracts of 4 years or less. Maybe the Mauer contract taught them not to commit a lot of money long-term, because even an MVP's career might be derailed by injury at any time, and I can imagine that Pohlad and/or the front office may really sweat over the idea of committing big money for 7 years to a player who hasn't even made an All-Star team because he's in a slump or on the IL more often than not. Maybe that thinking is overly risk-averse, but I could understand it. At the same time, like I've said before, I suspect that Buxton isn't really all that interested in giving the Twins a bargain, incentive-laden deal, either. It's in his rational interest to bet on himself next year, and test the market after he might put together a breakout season. Angling for some kind of cut-rate contract at this point would indicate that he doesn't really believe in himself--which would be a red flag, and surprising from a #1 draft pick who has shown flashes of MVP-level ability. In either case, unless the Twins are actually willing, right now, to pay the man what he could expect to get after a breakout season in 2022, they should just trade him this winter. It sounds like that's what they want to do, anyway.

Btw, I wonder if Buxton spends much time thinking about how he might like to play in one of the big markets, or maybe even go back to Georgia and play with Acuña and Albies, and possibly Rosario again. And it's not like the Braves are already set in Centerfield. Atlanta might be a dream come true for him. If I'm in his position, I'd like to wait and find out if that possibility is open to me.

I don't trust anything that his agents or the club have to say about it, publicly; they all want to spin their efforts as, "we're doing the best we can to keep him in a Twins uniform." The fact that it didn't get done may be a sign that Buxton really would like a bigger deal, as well as an indication of the Twins' interest. But even if Buxton really was interested in signing a team-friendly deal, in exchange for "security" (which he already has), during the past season, I would say that's in the past. Every day this off-season, every day that he gets closer to free agency, just strengthens his bargaining position. If he's just willing to bet on himself through one more 1-year deal, he'll get whatever rewards he deserves after next season. And if it turns out that he just has another great half-season, shadowed by another injury, he still could talk to the Twins or any other club about an $80M framework next year. Even if he has to settle then for some kind of $50M deal, because of injury, it would be a really nice consolation prize. There's hardly any downside for him in waiting. Why would he not do that?

Yeah, I don't see why Buxton would be motivated to accept such a team-friendly contract, coming off a season when he got off to such a blazing start but then missed most of the year because of (another) injury, knowing that he should get top dollar on the open market if he can just put together a big breakout in 2022. He's already a rich man, anyway; he'll have made close to $25M (counting his draft bonus) after next season, even if he accepts arbitration. He's not in a desperate position. Unless the Twins now proceed as if his breakout has already happened, like his big April is enough proof that he is a top player, and make him an offer that would interest a marquee free agent, I'd expect Buxton to bet on himself next season--and sign with the team that makes him the top offer, then. Regarding the pitching, I generally don't have much faith in pitchers coming back in their first year after Tommy John surgery, and particularly not if the guy turns 39 shortly after reporting for spring training. I'd rather the Twins did not spend $20M to help Verlander try to get back into shape at the end of his career. Trading Kepler for Manaea, and bringing in Gray, seems fine if they can swing it, though.

In 2014, he injured his wrist while diving for a ball in spring training, then hurt it again while on rehab in Ft. Myers. In August, he got a concussion when he collided with a teammate in the outfield, then missed the AFL after somehow breaking a finger. In 2015, he missed a few months after spraining his thumb when it got caught under his body while sliding into 2nd base. In 2017, he had to come out of the WC game after crashing into the wall; they said that he cracked his ribs. In 2019, he had to have labrum surgery after crashing into a wall. In 2020, he missed some time the next season due to inflammation in that shoulder. He also had concussion symptoms after being hit by a pitch on the helmet near the end of the season, which apparently was the reason he could not start Gm 2 of the WC series. This year, he hurt his hip after crashing into a wall, and now he's been hit by a pitch on the hand. I feel like I might have missed one or two instances of him getting hurt by running into a wall, maybe some injuries that didn't require an IL stint, but that's what I've found for now. Anyway, it's not just bad luck.

The Batista mistake was compounded by the Twins' commitment to Juan Castro--and Gardy's decision to send Jason Bartlett back to AAA because he lacked leadership and a "fire in the belly." The current front office still makes its share of low-cost, marginal moves, often in hopes that the player will bounce back from a down season or injury--and I'd say that picking up Jonathan Schoop wasn't all that different than Batista, apart from Schoop being younger. But there doesn't seem to be many complete head-scratchers lately, and I think it's been awhile since the club really jerked around a youngster because the field manager wanted to assert his authority. When it's all done, the splashy Donaldson signing may turn out to be one of their bigger mistakes.

Going by UZR/150, Marwin just isn't really a good utility infielder, as a 3B/SS/2B. He's done OK at 1B, except in 2017--although then you're playing an average-ish bat at a position where you'd really like plus-production. Ideally, he would be used most often as a reserve corner OF. He's been a fairly good defensive LF. If he's the semi-regular 3B, or spends most of his time in the infield, it's probably going to cut into his value.

The Mets are an ongoing mess, and recently insisted on Seattle taking back the Bruce & Swarzak contracts to allow New York to afford Cano's salary. The Yankees claim not to be interested, and would have to unload some salary to stay under the tax threshold. The Red Sox are already $33M above the tax threshold. There was talk today about a Dodgers-Reds trade, but LA needs a partner to let them dump salary to allow them to make other moves and stay under the threshold. The Angels aren't really in a good position to take on another big contract right now. The Phillies look less likely to go hard after Harper or Machado after acquiring McCutcheon and Segura. The Giants are shopping their veterans around. The Cubs are about $19M above the tax threshold. That would leave the White Sox and anybody else with money to spend and a desire to make a big push this winter. Of course the White Sox are generally more cost-conscious than other big city clubs, and they're in the middle of a full-scale youth movement, besides. Of course Harper or Machado might wind up with one of those clubs, anyway, but it's not an easy, foregone conclusion. If the Twins were interested, they'd stand a fair chance.

If the Twins are serious, why not take their calls seriously? They have a good crop of players in their mid-20's, with more well-regarded prospects on the way. They don't have any other big contracts on the books, so they're free to create an ambitious plan to take the next step up, and could present that to any targeted centerpiece of the plan. Minnesota is a nice place to live during the baseball season. And some of the big-market clubs are either a notorious mess or seem to be disinterested. So, step in. Be bold.

The young Nelson Cruz was really a pretty good corner outfielder. Also note that at age 24 he hit .306/.388/.577 in AA, .269/.382/.490 in AAA. At 25, he hit .302/.378/.528 in AAA. At 26, he hit .352/.428/.698 in AAA. At 27, he hit .342/.429/.695 in yet another stint in AAA (God knows why). So, although it's true that he struggled to make the leap to the majors through age 26, the dude was just crushing minor league pitching--and really the Rangers probably should have given him more of a chance to settle in, a couple years before he came up to stay. Tyler Austin has done fairly well in the minors, but not quite as well as that, and last season at AAA he regressed to a .255/.311/.547 line between the NY/MIN affiliates. Maybe just a fluke, or maybe that's who he is. Steamer projects .240/.308/.447 for him next year, so 'low obp with some pop' is how he looks to the computer model.

You're proposing a 4-man bench (Garver, Cave, Adrianza, Astudillo or Wade), which would require keeping a 12-man pitching staff. I don't know the answer, but how often did the Twins keep fewer than 13 pitchers in recent years? Overall, in 145 PA, Austin has hit .272/.345/.592 against lefties, which looks sweet. However, in games against a lefty starter, where his stats also include all that happened after the bullpen came in, in 182 PA, he hit .233/.308/.484. This past season, in 101 PA, he hit .236/.307/.539 against LHP. In games against a lefty starter, in 123 PA, .211/.285/.450. Of course all of these are small samples, but the numbers suggest that 1) he may have regressed lately even against lefties, and 2) you almost absolutely have to pinch-hit for him whenever a righty pitcher enters the game. Which obviously puts a big crimp on his usefulness, especially if he bats down in the order. He might bat once or twice, like a pinch-hitting Opener, before an opposing manager could easily get rid of him. If the other team uses an Opener to start the game, Austin may not even bat once--or else Baldelli would have to choose to let him bat against a righty in the first few innings and possibly for the rest of the game. If you don't trust him to do anything but DH or pinch-hit against lefties (and even that may be questionable), this is a real problem.

"Aim low and hope it works out" is about the size of it. Today, one of the Twins writers on Twitter was touting Falvine's "buy low" approach, because at least the upside is more interesting than signing guys like Pelfrey and Correia, and it struck me that a "buy low" strategy can be sound process if the club is betting that a recent poor season was an anomaly in an otherwise good track record. However, the Twins are doing the inverse with Cron and Schoop. They're betting on the positive outlier proving to be for real. If either of them works out, I'm sure that we'll hear the crowing, but the odds are against them. And for some reason the Twins are doing this while they supposedly have the budget to aim much higher. Really, is there a good reason why they're not serious contenders for Machado, Harper, or any other top free agent this winter? And I don't mean, "let's lowball a big name and claim, 'at least we tried,'" like they usually do. I mean, put in some real bids, maybe actually go get a game-changer. They have the money. It doesn't look like the Twins care to aim higher than, "we might take Nelson Cruz if the price is right (the Rays don't want to pay him)," though.

The way the roster is taking shape, and considering what they did last year, I expect that they'll sign a couple/few relievers, pick up a starting pitcher who is still looking for a job in February, and take Nelson Cruz (who has been great, but turns 39 on July 1) if nobody else will pay the man what he wants. Will that sort of thing move the needle?

They were 6th in in the AL in runs, but 10th in wRC+. And as you've noted, nearly all of their best on-base guys from last year are either gone or on the roster bubble. Jake Cave is another guy with some pop but not a good obp (last season or projected for next year), and he'll probably be just a 4th OF. If he's a regular, it means something has gone wrong for Buxton again, or else Rosario/Kepler, which deeply hurts, and probably kills, their chances, anyway.

Yep, it's basically the same plan as last year. Fill in some holes with bargain flyers, and hope that this season Buxton, Sano, and the rest of the youngsters all step up together. The trouble with the "Schoop is just one year removed from his All-Star season" narrative is that his big year was completely out of character with the rest of his career. Even in the minors, he struggled to get on base. This is not a strategic move; it's just gambling against the odds. The Twins picked up a 2B stopgap who probably will hit 20+ HR but is just as likely to post a .300 obp or worse. Steamer projects that his pop and average defense should be good for 2.1 fWAR. Which sounds fine--but the Twins have a lot of guys who project that decent level of value but probably won't get on base at a high rate. When Jack Z ran the Mariners, he liked to collect that kind of player, too. It did not work so well. The Twins top player in the Steamer projections is Max Kepler, at 2.6 fWAR; assuming that he gets 600 PA, Buxton tops the Steamer600 table at 2.8 fWAR, thanks to his anticipated defense. Their top wRC+ projection is Cron at 115. Unless a few guys really take the big leap forward, the Twins may have some decent, respectable hitters through much of the lineup, but no real stars and perhaps a one-dimensional group. It's shaping up to be a rerun of last year, when the lineup was 9th-AL in fWAR, 10th-AL in wRC+. Hopefully they have a few guys who defy expectations. That would be fun. Is it fun to watch the "hopefully some guys bust out" plan put in place, when they supposedly have bunches of money to spend and this new, bold, forward-thinking front office? Ha-ha, negatory!

Steamer and Depth Charts expect Santana to bounce back next year (I really have my doubts) and put up 119 wRC+, worth ~2.2 fWAR. Which is basically the value of Cron last year. I'd swear that they updated Cron's projections just since yesterday, so it's more optimistic now than it had been, but in any case they're now projecting 115 wRC+ and ~1.3 fWAR from him (1.5 fWAR in 600 PA). If you're the GM and you're looking at the numbers, and maybe people have told you that Cron made the adjustments that Parker described so they think he's for real, and you have that guy on the roster for about $5M, how likely is it that you're going to make a trade to get the 33 year-old 1B/DH (whose numbers have been down from his peak level in 3 of the last 4 seasons) who costs 4 times as much? I would be surprised to see the Twins go get Santana, or spend a bunch of money at 1B/DH, now. If they're going to splash out, they'll probably spend on pitching. Maybe they'll pick up a middle infielder, but the lineup probably is what it is, more or less.

Yeah, I've seen a few people suggest that Cron might just split time with Austin, but carrying a platoon or backup 1B/DH tends to be difficult in the age of the 13-man pitching staff, if one of the guys isn't also a viable semi-regular OF. At the end of spring training, they'll probably have to choose one or the other. I'd guess that they're already planning to keep Cron, cut Grossman and Austin, and use the DH to rotate players from OF/3B/C or perhaps a bigger bat not yet on the roster.

I'm skeptical because his improvement this year is entirely tied to a small increase in hard contact and barrel rates, which probably explains his jump in HR/FB rate. Otherwise he was basically the same player as before. OK, great, he was barreling up on the ball this year, and Parker H. thinks it's because he made a hands adjustment. But barrel rates don't necessarily correspond to top hitters (Joey Gallo was #1 this year in Brls/PA%; Jake Cave and Tyler Austin were in the Top 20, higher than Cron; Logan Morrison's 7.2 Brls/PA% ranked 49th, not far below Cron's 7.9%). And it wouldn't surprise me at all to see Cron's barrel rate regress to his 2017 level of 6.7% just from natural, random variation. He might fall back on some old habits without even realizing it, or he might just not enjoy quite as much good luck again. Maybe this is just a placeholder move. Maybe it's a sign that they don't have much faith in Austin, or they don't intend to seriously go after someone like Carlos Santana. And that's OK if they see Cron as a safer, lower-cost alternative to Santana. I wouldn't bet $41M over the next 2 years on Santana being a 3-win 1B/DH, either. But I doubt that the Twins really picked up a 30 HR, 2-win player from the scrap pile today. I don't think that Cron really moves the needle for this team much at all.

I just noticed that last year at this same point, the Twins were 39-34, but actually had been outscored by 38 runs. This year, they have had some bad luck with injuries, but on the other hand, the substitutes at 3B and SS have been two of the best players in the lineup. And the -18 RD is an improvement on last season through Game 73, it's just that they're not coming through in the close games. In fact, at 3-13 in one-run games, they've been terrible. Why is that? Maybe that's where the little things like baserunning, executing in the field, and tactical management really make the difference, in this case, between a team bobbing around .500 and an already lost season. And this underperformance has been going on for awhile. Yes, they played above their heads in the early going last year, but then down the stretch they were just 46-43 despite a +65 RD. And in 2016, the year of Total System Failure, I believe their BaseRuns record had them pegged at 72 wins, but of course they were 13 wins below their expected mark (or 7 wins below Pythag). To be fair, he pulled a miracle out of that 2015 team--probably the luckiest bad team I've seen in my life--but in the past few seasons, I'd say that the team has been worse than it should be, more often than not.

About the pitching: it's been fine, better than what we're used to seeing for quite a long time, yes, but over the past month the Twins staff still rates just 8th-AL in ERA, 7th in FIP, and tied for 5th in xFIP. On the season, the staff is in the middle of the league--the rotation is 8th-AL in FIP, the bullpen is 13th (albeit 9th in ERA and xFIP). Trailing teams that they're trying to chase down, mostly. On an individual level, some possible red flags: In his last 5 starts, Romero has a 6.20 ERA, 1.46 WHIP with a modest 6.9 K/9. In his last 5 starts before today, Odorizzi has a 4.91 ERA, 4.47 FIP with a 77% flyball rate and 1.75 HR/9. On the season, he's been skating on a favorable BABIP and high LOB%, but lately those have regressed. As he gets into the summer weather, all of those flyballs sailing through the hot air could get ugly. In his last 5 starts, Gibson has a 3.48 ERA, but a 4.78 FIP with a 1.74 HR/9 and 24% HR/FB. Being a groundball pitcher should help him control the longball damage to some extent, but those HR rates are something to watch as he goes through the summer, too. In his last 5 starts, Lynn has improved his line, but thanks a lot to a high LOB%. He's been pitching around trouble, caused largely by his ongoing control problems; he still has a 4.88 BB/9 in the last month. And even if he continues to improve, if the Twins don't tear off a hot streak over the next few weeks, Lynn should be one of the first guys traded in July. Meanwhile, two of the mainstays of the bullpen, Pressly and Reed, seem to be wearing down lately. It's a decent pitching staff, possibly an average pitching staff if those red flags don't actually spell much trouble down the stretch. Is that good enough to drive them to a 62-38 record or better over the final 100 games? Unless the hitters suddenly challenge the Yankees for best offense in the league, probably not.

Houston will get to 90 wins by playing .505 ball the rest of the way. Boston just has to play .479 ball, the Yankees need a .475 pace. Seattle will get to 90 wins at a .500 clip. One of those teams might go into a complete tailspin, while the Angels stumble across the line and the Twins play .620 ball or better. But... well, there are fewer moving parts required to overtake the Indians, let's just say.