diehardtwinsfan

In light of John's recent suggestion, I went ahead and compiled the results of the 2013 free agent pitching market. I excluded pitchers that ended up as relievers, and I excluded pitchers such as baseballs version of Gandolf the Gray (Jamie Moyer) who did not sign. The results were surprisingly better than I thought they'd be, but I'm not so certain that we at Twins Daily would have gotten them right. I'm too lazy to look up all of the suggestions from last winter, but the names that I remember being tossed around were either unrealistic (Grienke, Sanchez, etc) or have horribly performed (Jackson, Haren, Marcum). Some of the multi-year deals obviously need to be vetted in terms of the length of their deal, and I suspect guys like Lohse and Greinke will not look so good at the end of their contracts. One interesting observation is that the cubs took 3 gambles in the FA pitching market. One (Scott Feldman) worked out very well for them. One (Scott Baker) flushed 5.5M down the toilet. One (Carlos Villanueva) may also net them a prospect. Despite their record, the cubs are a large market team, so they essentially used 15M this offseason to buy some prospects in what is a lost year for them. Given that their fan base will show up no matter how poor a product they put on the field, this isn't a bad strategy at all for the lovable losers. The Good: Zack Greinke: 8-2 3.36 ERA in 91 innings. Lost time due to an injury sustained in a fight. Jake Peavy: 7-4 4.19 ERA in 73 innings. Also spent time on the DL. Peripherals better than Greinke so far. Anibal Sanchez: 7-7 2.85 ERA in 98 innings. Though the record hasn’t indicated it, he has pitched like an ace striking out more than 10 per 9 innings and walking less than 3. Hiroki Kuroda: 9-6 with a 2.65 ERA in 125 innings. Has pitched quite well for the 15M contract the Yankees gave him, though his K rate is significantly lower than the others, he may regress. Kyle Lohse: 6-7 with a 3.49 ERA for the Brewers. Peripherals don’t look too good, but he’s gotten the results thus far and justified his 3/33M contract. Ervin Santana: 6-6 with a 3.18 ERA for the Royals in 130 innings. Has to date justified his 1/13 contract and will likely be able to parlay that into a multiyear deal this offseason. Francisco Liriano: 9-4 with a 2.44 ERA in 81 innings for the Pirates. He signed a 1M deal with a second year option that will likely be picked up. He has been by far the best value deal of the class as he’s pitched like an ace. He turned down an offer from the Twins, and I’d say there’s a good chance he would not have pitched that well had he returned. Scott Feldman: 8-6 with a 3.86 ERA. Cubs were able to flip him and his 1/6 contract for prospects. Bartolo Colon: 12-3 with a 2.70 ERA for the A’s. Great value for 3M. The mediocre: Ryan Dempster: 5-8 with a 4.24 ERA in 110 innings for the Redsox. He’s been just better than league average, and not quite justifying the 2 year 26.5M contract. Jeremy Guthrie: 9-7 with a 4.41 ERA in 126 innings for the Royals. I hate to see how this will turn out in years 2 and 3 of his 25M contract. Joe Saunders: 9-8 with a 4.28 ERA in 120 innings. Great value from the 6.5M contract he got this offseason. Carlos Villanueva: 2-6 with a 4.16 ERA in 84 innings for the Cubs. Signed a 2/10M contract and has earned his keep. Erik Bedard: 3-7 with a 4.41 ERA in 98 innings for the Astros. Could possibly be flipped for a prospect. Kevin Correia: I don’t think I need to summarize this one. He’s earned his contract, though not much more. Jason Marquis: 9-5 with a 4.05 ERA. Probably the best of the mediocre group and cheap at 3M. I somehow doubt he was going back to MN. Roberto Hernandez: The player formerly known as Carmona is 5-10 with a 4.9 ERA for the Rays. Only cost 3.25M. The Bad: Edwin Jackson: 6-10 with a 5.11 ERA in 100 innings. He has not lived up to his potential. Brandon McCarthy: 2-4 with a 4.99 ERA in only 66 innings. He was cheap at 2/16.5, but has not pitched nearly enough, or well enough to justify the contract. Dan Haren: 4-10 with a 5.61 ERA for the Nationals. Has not justified his 1/13 contract. Shaun Marcum: 1-10 with a 5.29 ERA for the Mets. At least only cost them 4M. Joe Blanton: 2-12 with a 5.53 ERA for the Angels. Not worth the 2/15 contract he signed. Roy Oswalt: 0-4 with a 7.64 ERA in only 17 innings for the Rockies. He has pitched well in AA. Freddy Garcia: 3-5 with a 5.77 ERA for Baltimore. At least he was cheap. Jeff Francis: 2-5 with a 6.58 ERA for the Rockies. Cost 1.5M. Chien-Ming Wang: 1-1 with a 7.13 ERA for the Jays in only 24 innings. Singed for .5M. Jonathan Sanchez: 0-3 with an 11.85 ERA for the Pirates. The ugly: Colby Lewis: Has been paid 2M to not pitch. Chris Young: He did not sign a major league deal, so this really didn’t not hurt his team. He has not pitched well in AAA thus far. Scott Baker: I want get paid 5.5M to never set foot on a mound. Daisuke Matsuzaka: Signed a minor league deal and has yet to pitch in the majors. Carlos Zambrano: Signed a minor league deal and has yet to pitch in the majors. Has pitched well in the minors. Aaron Cook: Signed a minor league deal and is getting shelled in the PCL. Kip Wells: Signed a minor league deal and is getting shelled in the PCL. Breakdown: Good: 9 players Mediocre: 8 players Bad: 10 players Ugly: 7 players Since Ryan was clearly looking for shorter term deals, we can look back with hindsight to see who was the best signing. The best contracts overall were for Liriano (who turned down an offer to return), Feldman, and Colon. Both signed short term contracts and have vastly outperformed them. We all know the enigma that is Liriano, so it doesn't bear repeating. There's good question as to whether or not he would have pitched this well in Minnesota. Many of the mediocre contracts would have played out similarly to Kevin Correia, who the Twins signed. None of these guys would be difference makers overall, but most of them would be upgrades to our current rotation. If money wasn't an option, and this was an exercise in throwing darts, approximately 50% of the players that signed would have performed well enough to earn their contract. Given that a number of the good players, such as Sanchez, Grienke, Liriano, and Lohse weren't likely to come here due to either a large contract or a former history, Ryan's odds of succeeding were less than that. The Twins would likely be in different shape had they signed Feldman, Colon, and Kuroda this offseason, but these were also not names that many were arguing for, and at 15M, Kuroda would have sucked up the entire budget. As a result, I'm not sure the posters at Twins Daily would have assembled a much better rotation than what Ryan did, and it most certainly would have cost more.

In light of John's recent suggestion, I went ahead and compiled the results of the 2013 free agent pitching market. I excluded pitchers that ended up as relievers, and I excluded pitchers such as baseballs version of Gandolf the Gray (Jamie Moyer) who did not sign. The results were surprisingly better than I thought they'd be, but I'm not so certain that we at Twins Daily would have gotten them right. I'm too lazy to look up all of the suggestions from last winter, but the names that I remember being tossed around were either unrealistic (Grienke, Sanchez, etc) or have horribly performed (Jackson, Haren, Marcum). Some of the multi-year deals obviously need to be vetted in terms of the length of their deal, and I suspect guys like Lohse and Greinke will not look so good at the end of their contracts. One interesting observation is that the cubs took 3 gambles in the FA pitching market. One (Scott Feldman) worked out very well for them. One (Scott Baker) flushed 5.5M down the toilet. One (Carlos Villanueva) may also net them a prospect. Despite their record, the cubs are a large market team, so they essentially used 15M this offseason to buy some prospects in what is a lost year for them. Given that their fan base will show up no matter how poor a product they put on the field, this isn't a bad strategy at all for the lovable losers. The Good: Zack Greinke: 8-2 3.36 ERA in 91 innings. Lost time due to an injury sustained in a fight. Jake Peavy: 7-4 4.19 ERA in 73 innings. Also spent time on the DL. Peripherals better than Greinke so far. Anibal Sanchez: 7-7 2.85 ERA in 98 innings. Though the record hasn’t indicated it, he has pitched like an ace striking out more than 10 per 9 innings and walking less than 3. Hiroki Kuroda: 9-6 with a 2.65 ERA in 125 innings. Has pitched quite well for the 15M contract the Yankees gave him, though his K rate is significantly lower than the others, he may regress. Kyle Lohse: 6-7 with a 3.49 ERA for the Brewers. Peripherals don’t look too good, but he’s gotten the results thus far and justified his 3/33M contract. Ervin Santana: 6-6 with a 3.18 ERA for the Royals in 130 innings. Has to date justified his 1/13 contract and will likely be able to parlay that into a multiyear deal this offseason. Francisco Liriano: 9-4 with a 2.44 ERA in 81 innings for the Pirates. He signed a 1M deal with a second year option that will likely be picked up. He has been by far the best value deal of the class as he’s pitched like an ace. He turned down an offer from the Twins, and I’d say there’s a good chance he would not have pitched that well had he returned. Scott Feldman: 8-6 with a 3.86 ERA. Cubs were able to flip him and his 1/6 contract for prospects. Bartolo Colon: 12-3 with a 2.70 ERA for the A’s. Great value for 3M. The mediocre: Ryan Dempster: 5-8 with a 4.24 ERA in 110 innings for the Redsox. He’s been just better than league average, and not quite justifying the 2 year 26.5M contract. Jeremy Guthrie: 9-7 with a 4.41 ERA in 126 innings for the Royals. I hate to see how this will turn out in years 2 and 3 of his 25M contract. Joe Saunders: 9-8 with a 4.28 ERA in 120 innings. Great value from the 6.5M contract he got this offseason. Carlos Villanueva: 2-6 with a 4.16 ERA in 84 innings for the Cubs. Signed a 2/10M contract and has earned his keep. Erik Bedard: 3-7 with a 4.41 ERA in 98 innings for the Astros. Could possibly be flipped for a prospect. Kevin Correia: I don’t think I need to summarize this one. He’s earned his contract, though not much more. Jason Marquis: 9-5 with a 4.05 ERA. Probably the best of the mediocre group and cheap at 3M. I somehow doubt he was going back to MN. Roberto Hernandez: The player formerly known as Carmona is 5-10 with a 4.9 ERA for the Rays. Only cost 3.25M. The Bad: Edwin Jackson: 6-10 with a 5.11 ERA in 100 innings. He has not lived up to his potential. Brandon McCarthy: 2-4 with a 4.99 ERA in only 66 innings. He was cheap at 2/16.5, but has not pitched nearly enough, or well enough to justify the contract. Dan Haren: 4-10 with a 5.61 ERA for the Nationals. Has not justified his 1/13 contract. Shaun Marcum: 1-10 with a 5.29 ERA for the Mets. At least only cost them 4M. Joe Blanton: 2-12 with a 5.53 ERA for the Angels. Not worth the 2/15 contract he signed. Roy Oswalt: 0-4 with a 7.64 ERA in only 17 innings for the Rockies. He has pitched well in AA. Freddy Garcia: 3-5 with a 5.77 ERA for Baltimore. At least he was cheap. Jeff Francis: 2-5 with a 6.58 ERA for the Rockies. Cost 1.5M. Chien-Ming Wang: 1-1 with a 7.13 ERA for the Jays in only 24 innings. Singed for .5M. Jonathan Sanchez: 0-3 with an 11.85 ERA for the Pirates. The ugly: Colby Lewis: Has been paid 2M to not pitch. Chris Young: He did not sign a major league deal, so this really didn’t not hurt his team. He has not pitched well in AAA thus far. Scott Baker: I want get paid 5.5M to never set foot on a mound. Daisuke Matsuzaka: Signed a minor league deal and has yet to pitch in the majors. Carlos Zambrano: Signed a minor league deal and has yet to pitch in the majors. Has pitched well in the minors. Aaron Cook: Signed a minor league deal and is getting shelled in the PCL. Kip Wells: Signed a minor league deal and is getting shelled in the PCL. Breakdown: Good: 9 players Mediocre: 8 players Bad: 10 players Ugly: 7 players Since Ryan was clearly looking for shorter term deals, we can look back with hindsight to see who was the best signing. The best contracts overall were for Liriano (who turned down an offer to return), Feldman, and Colon. Both signed short term contracts and have vastly outperformed them. We all know the enigma that is Liriano, so it doesn't bear repeating. There's good question as to whether or not he would have pitched this well in Minnesota. Many of the mediocre contracts would have played out similarly to Kevin Correia, who the Twins signed. None of these guys would be difference makers overall, but most of them would be upgrades to our current rotation. If money wasn't an option, and this was an exercise in throwing darts, approximately 50% of the players that signed would have performed well enough to earn their contract. Given that a number of the good players, such as Sanchez, Grienke, Liriano, and Lohse weren't likely to come here due to either a large contract or a former history, Ryan's odds of succeeding were less than that. The Twins would likely be in different shape had they signed Feldman, Colon, and Kuroda this offseason, but these were also not names that many were arguing for, and at 15M, Kuroda would have sucked up the entire budget. As a result, I'm not sure the posters at Twins Daily would have assembled a much better rotation than what Ryan did, and it most certainly would have cost more.

love it.

It's no secret as to where the Twins struggled last season. Starting pitching was by far the worst, but the Twins were left lacking up the middle as well as in the pen. The good news is that from a hitting standpoint, the Twins look fairly set going forward. Rochester's OF should consist of 3 decent prospects in Arcia, Hicks, and Benson (though Benson's stock has fallen a bit), and one of them should be ready if/when someone goes down or is traded. The higher minors are bereft of pitching talent and middle infield talent, though prospect Brian Dozier should get a chance to establish himself in Rochester next year. I for one am not as down on him as others, and a year in AAA will likely be beneficial to him. Fortunately for the Twins, there are options. In my plan, the Twins will make two trades this offseason. The first of which will be to deal Anthony Slama to the Angels for Dan Haren and 3M. While I personally think Slama deserves a shot, it seems clear that he isn't going to get one in Minnesota. The Angles took a similar type deal in letting go Santana, and they will take another one to for Haren as they will esentially get an RP arm for the cost of Haren's buyout, which they were going to pay anyways. The second will be to deal Denard Span and a PTBNL to the Reds for minor league pitcher Tony Cingrani. They will not sit quitely in the FA market either. The Twins go ahead and sign Scott Baker to a 2 year deal with an option. He will receive 2M in 2013 and 6M in 2014 with a 10M option in 2015 or a 1M buyout. They also choose to bring on Erik Bedard on a 1 year 2M deal. Bedard was very good for Pittsburg before falling apart late summer. That was certainly in part due to being tired as he hasn't had huge workloads for several years now. His purpose is to hopefully last the year, but if not, he buys time for Gibson/Hendricks. Gibson will be shut down early in the spring so that he can finish the year with 130 innings. The Twins will also go heavily after Marcum, and they will get him after adding a 2nd year and an option to his contract. Marcum is signed for 2/16 with a 3rd year option. They will opt for 1 year fixes in the middle infield. Both Kelly Johnson and Stephen Drew will be signed to 1 year deals to man the middle. This should provide better defense overall and a reasonable potential to help at the plate. Dozier will start in AAA where he belongs, and the Twins will be able to decide if he will man one of those spots in 2014. Terry Ryan said that the pen was his second priority, and as such he makes a few moves. Being out of options, Delios Gurerra will be given every opportunity to man a spot, and he will receive it whether or not it is deserved. But the Twins will also seek reinforcements who are capable of striking out batters. Jason Grilli will come over on a 2 yr/4M deal from Pittsburg. While he is 35, he is still quite capable of striking out batters. Staying with age, they will also sign Joel Peralta to a 1yr/3M deal. These pitchers will add some Ks to the back of the pen for reasonable prices. Their bench will be strengthened by signing Jeff Keppinger to a 2yr/7M deal. Keppinger will rotate at the corners and occasional DH and essentially be their 10th starter/super utility guy. Lineup: C-Mauer - 23M 1B-Morneau - 14M 2B-Kelly Johnson - 2M SS-Stephen Drew - 2M 3B - Plouffe - .5M RF - Willingham - 7M CF - Revere .5M LF - Parmalee .5M DH - Doumit 3.5M Total: 53M Pitching: SP-Diamond - .5M SP-Dan Haren - 12M (Angels cover 3M of his contract) SP- Marcum - 8M SP-Baker - 2M SP-Bedard - 3M RP-Swarzak - .5M RP-D. Guererra - .5M RP-Jason Grilli - 2M RP-Joel Peralta - 3M RP-Duensing - 1M RP-Burton - 1M CL-Perkins - 2.5M Total: 40.5 Bench U/MIF- Florimon - .5M U/CIF- Jeff Keppinger - 3.5M OF- Mastroianni - .5M C- Chris Herrman - .5M Total: 5M Grand total: 98.5M The end result is a swing for the fences type team. If everything breaks right, the Twins will find themselves in the thick of a penant race in 2013. Given that they are adding quite a few question marks, the likelihood of that is not as good as we'd like, but they have nice trade options to work with come the deadline should things not work out. Morneau will very likely be flipped for pitching help. The same can be said for Willingham, Johnson, Drew, or Peralta. With Arcia and Hicks in Rochester, one of these guys will likely be called up to replace Revere should he struggle. If Morneau or Willingham is traded, then one will be called up to move into the OF. Gibson and Hendricks will start in Rochester, but both will likely see time when the inevitable pitching injury strikes. This Twins team has much more depth as their minor league system should be able to provide a reasonable replacement for most roles.

It's no secret as to where the Twins struggled last season. Starting pitching was by far the worst, but the Twins were left lacking up the middle as well as in the pen. The good news is that from a hitting standpoint, the Twins look fairly set going forward. Rochester's OF should consist of 3 decent prospects in Arcia, Hicks, and Benson (though Benson's stock has fallen a bit), and one of them should be ready if/when someone goes down or is traded. The higher minors are bereft of pitching talent and middle infield talent, though prospect Brian Dozier should get a chance to establish himself in Rochester next year. I for one am not as down on him as others, and a year in AAA will likely be beneficial to him. Fortunately for the Twins, there are options. In my plan, the Twins will make two trades this offseason. The first of which will be to deal Anthony Slama to the Angels for Dan Haren and 3M. While I personally think Slama deserves a shot, it seems clear that he isn't going to get one in Minnesota. The Angles took a similar type deal in letting go Santana, and they will take another one to for Haren as they will esentially get an RP arm for the cost of Haren's buyout, which they were going to pay anyways. The second will be to deal Denard Span and a PTBNL to the Reds for minor league pitcher Tony Cingrani. They will not sit quitely in the FA market either. The Twins go ahead and sign Scott Baker to a 2 year deal with an option. He will receive 2M in 2013 and 6M in 2014 with a 10M option in 2015 or a 1M buyout. They also choose to bring on Erik Bedard on a 1 year 2M deal. Bedard was very good for Pittsburg before falling apart late summer. That was certainly in part due to being tired as he hasn't had huge workloads for several years now. His purpose is to hopefully last the year, but if not, he buys time for Gibson/Hendricks. Gibson will be shut down early in the spring so that he can finish the year with 130 innings. The Twins will also go heavily after Marcum, and they will get him after adding a 2nd year and an option to his contract. Marcum is signed for 2/16 with a 3rd year option. They will opt for 1 year fixes in the middle infield. Both Kelly Johnson and Stephen Drew will be signed to 1 year deals to man the middle. This should provide better defense overall and a reasonable potential to help at the plate. Dozier will start in AAA where he belongs, and the Twins will be able to decide if he will man one of those spots in 2014. Terry Ryan said that the pen was his second priority, and as such he makes a few moves. Being out of options, Delios Gurerra will be given every opportunity to man a spot, and he will receive it whether or not it is deserved. But the Twins will also seek reinforcements who are capable of striking out batters. Jason Grilli will come over on a 2 yr/4M deal from Pittsburg. While he is 35, he is still quite capable of striking out batters. Staying with age, they will also sign Joel Peralta to a 1yr/3M deal. These pitchers will add some Ks to the back of the pen for reasonable prices. Their bench will be strengthened by signing Jeff Keppinger to a 2yr/7M deal. Keppinger will rotate at the corners and occasional DH and essentially be their 10th starter/super utility guy. Lineup: C-Mauer - 23M 1B-Morneau - 14M 2B-Kelly Johnson - 2M SS-Stephen Drew - 2M 3B - Plouffe - .5M RF - Willingham - 7M CF - Revere .5M LF - Parmalee .5M DH - Doumit 3.5M Total: 53M Pitching: SP-Diamond - .5M SP-Dan Haren - 12M (Angels cover 3M of his contract) SP- Marcum - 8M SP-Baker - 2M SP-Bedard - 3M RP-Swarzak - .5M RP-D. Guererra - .5M RP-Jason Grilli - 2M RP-Joel Peralta - 3M RP-Duensing - 1M RP-Burton - 1M CL-Perkins - 2.5M Total: 40.5 Bench U/MIF- Florimon - .5M U/CIF- Jeff Keppinger - 3.5M OF- Mastroianni - .5M C- Chris Herrman - .5M Total: 5M Grand total: 98.5M The end result is a swing for the fences type team. If everything breaks right, the Twins will find themselves in the thick of a penant race in 2013. Given that they are adding quite a few question marks, the likelihood of that is not as good as we'd like, but they have nice trade options to work with come the deadline should things not work out. Morneau will very likely be flipped for pitching help. The same can be said for Willingham, Johnson, Drew, or Peralta. With Arcia and Hicks in Rochester, one of these guys will likely be called up to replace Revere should he struggle. If Morneau or Willingham is traded, then one will be called up to move into the OF. Gibson and Hendricks will start in Rochester, but both will likely see time when the inevitable pitching injury strikes. This Twins team has much more depth as their minor league system should be able to provide a reasonable replacement for most roles.

I'm with thrylos on this one, I want Giolioto with that pick if he's still on the board... we have plenty of toolsy OF prospects, so taking a year off and going after a guy that could anchor the rotation for the next 6 or so years would be wise... I'm not sure, however, that he can be in the bigs in 2 years... he is a highschool prospect. That said, he definitely would deepen the farm system quite a bit.