mp_mn

What exactly has Sano shown that would warrant putting tons and tons of extra effort and resources into trying to prop him back up to being an acceptable ML-caliber player? Why him over any number of other players?

This seems like a steal for us. Reds Reddit is apoplectic.

It's really tough to improve a team if you're filling one hole while opening two more.

Melky is first on my list, but Cuddyer isn't a bad option. The left field free agent class is spotty at best, especially for guys who aren't trainwrecks in the outfield. Cuddyer has been fairly consistent offensively, is a right handed power guy, so even though it feels like another get-the-band-back-together choice, it's not nearly as bad as this year's free agent signings. Come to think of it though, Cuddyer is hard of hearing in his left ear. Maybe sticking him in left won't be viable. Any one we sign, though, must not be for more than 2 years so we don't have a logjam when Buxton shows up. That shouldn't be a problem with this crop of free agents, but signing even a Willingham-esque contract would do more harm than good, unless you're looking to flip them for prospects part-way through the deal.

Santana can play a hybrid backup infielder/starting CF role. Hicks or Arcia would be the traditional backup outfielder and pinch hitter player. If an injury happens in the infield, shift Santana down there, plug in Escobar wherever the injury occurred (or directly replace him with Santana if he gets injured), and play both Hicks and Arcia in the same outfield.

The Twins stand at 60-77 at the start of September. Let's improve that for 2015 with a few simple tweaks: Baseball Prospectus puts the Twins 3rd order pythagorean win percentage at .458, which is a touch under 63 wins. Let's call that the current baseline for the talent level of the team. +3 WAR Kenny Vargas soaking up at-bats at DH that were earlier spent on Chris Colabello and Kendrys Morales does wonders: OUT: Colabello PAs (-1.0 WAR in 220 PAs) + OUT: Kendrys Morales PAs (-0.8 WAR in 162 PAs) + OUT: Vargas' current production (0.5 WAR in 135 PAs, a 0.37 WAR/100PA rate) IN: Vargas (0.37 WAR/100 PA in 517 PAs) = 1.91 WAR 1.91 WAR - (-1.8) = +3.7 WAR Don't hand Chris Herrmann or Chris Parmelee any more at-bats. Give them to Schafer instead. OUT: Chris Herrmann + Parmelee (285 ABs at about -1 WAR) IN: Replacement level 4th OF guy +1 WAR Let's grab a 2 WAR LF free agent. Cuddyer, Melky Cabrera, or Nelson Cruz could fit the bill: OUT: Kubel ABs (131 PAs in LF) (-1.1 WAR) + Willingham ABs (278 PAs) (0.8 WAR) IN: 2 WAR LFer +2.3 WAR Let's assume Mauer is 1 WAR closer to his old self by this time next year (which would still be well under historic Mauer performance) +1 WAR OUT: Pino (0.8 WAR), Pelfrey (-0.6 WAR), Deduno (-0.1 WAR) innings IN: Free Agent 3 WAR starter +3 WAR Platoon Arcia and Hicks in RF: Arcia vs R as L = 121 wRC+ in 196 ABs : This would be similar to Matt Joyce's production, which is 1.9 WAR in 438 PA with a similar defensive value = 0.434/100 PA Hicks vs L as R = 145 wRC+ in 42 ABs, which, while a very small sample size, compares to Seth Smith = 2.7 WAR in 449 PA with a similar defensive value = 0.601/100PA Call Arcia vs Hicks a wash defensively, for argument (even though surely Hicks will improve the outfield defense) 30% PAs in the league are vs. LHP, and players get around 650 PAs in a season, so divvy it up as 200 PAs for Hicks, and 450 PAs for Arcia. Multiply their production rate by their plate appearances, and you'll get: 1.95 Arcia WAR + 1.202 Hicks WAR = 3.1 total WAR for platoon Subtract 20% (guesstimate) to account for off-handed matchups (for example, when they are facing opposite-handed bullpen pitchers) = 2.5 WAR I've already counted Herrmann + Parmelee RF ABs going to replacement level, so we have to not double count improving those plate appearances, so just remove Hicks' and Arcia's WAR Subtract 0.4 Hicks + Arcia WAR this year for the Twins = +2.1 WAR, scaled to how far into the season we are now, for affect on current record (84.5%) = +1.7 WAR Let's also cancel out regressions of Hughes, Dozier, and Santana with improvements from Arcia, May, Gibson, and Nolasco. Now, add it up: 60-77 +3 +3.7 +1 +2.3 +1 +3 +1.7 = 76-61 expected this time next year, by adding a 3 WAR starter, a 2 WAR left fielder, an Arcia/Hicks platoon, averaging out the luck, and getting rid of the dead weight from this year's roster. How would you add more tweaks?