Jeremy Nygaard

Too bad Cameron Booser hasn't pitched about E-town. He'd be fun to bring in against power-hitting lefties: high-90s heat with plus slider. He's a little erratic now... which might make those same lefties uncomfortable.

Even a deal like Jose Tabata isn't as bad as it looks. You take on a risk with money that's similar to what the Twins pay Ricky Nolasco for a season's worth of starts. The flipside of that they Twins get a very team-friendly deal. That's how extensions are supposed to work: Each side is rewarded, while also taking on some risk. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/08/pirates-extend-jose-tabata.html

Here's what I had: 2016: 750K 2017: 3.25m 2018: 5.5m 2019: 7.75m 2020: 9m (first FA year) 2021: 11m (club option with $1.75m b/o) 5 years/$28m guarantee.

What?! You're joking. Right? We've hashed, rehashed and triple-hashed a potential extension for Brian Dozier. We've even thrown Trevor Plouffe's name around in those talks. We've loved (or mostly-loved) the Phil Hughes (unnecessary) extension. But we haven't talked at all about a player who makes sense - eventually - to approach about a long-term deal. It's not a "How Did We Miss Him?" discussion at all. Mostly because this player hasn't been very good.Oswaldo Arcia debuted early in the 2013 season out of pure necessity. He has spent parts of the last two seasons in the minor leagues. He strikes out more (244 big-league K's) than (insert your least favorite Twins blogger here) did in college. He teases with 34 MLB home runs, but more than mitigates his power by playing subpar defense in right field (-3.4 defensive bWAR in '13 and '14) and now he's moving to the more spacious left field. Nothing hear screams "SIGN THIS GUY TO A LONG-TERM DEAL" and it shouldn't. As it is - right now - it shouldn't even be on the Twins radar. But there's a pretty simple it showed up on mine: 1.132 Oswaldo Arcia's service time. There isn't a set number that qualifies you to be a Super-2, instead it has to do with the top percentage of players who fall short of three years of service time. Over the last six years, that number has fallen between 2.122 and 2.146. Right where Arcia projects to be next year. So what does that mean? The best example I could find that was presentable and makes sense is a comparison between Dexter Fowler and Austin Jackson. Both players are set to enter free agency after this season, but their paths through the arbitration process has left them in different spots financially. First, the players aren't perfect comps but are as apples to apples as I could find. Jackson, though, is much better according to bWAR. Over his career, he's worth 20.2 bWAR compared to Fowler's 11.3. A bigger different, however, is that Fowler was a Super-2 and Jackson was not. Because of that, over the course of their careers, Fowler has made over $24.5m and Jackson has made only $18.5m. Think what Fowler would have made if he was as good as Jackson. I don't think it's unfair to say that Fowler could have earned very near $30m, or 62% more than a superior player who only comes up short, statistically, in terms of service time. (Like I said earlier, it's not the best comparison, but the best I could find.) So back to Arcia: For this to make any sense, he'll need to improve. He'll need to show that he is part of the core of this team moving forward. Basically, he'll need to make a jump - both offensively and defensively - that Trevor Plouffe has made over the last couple of season. Plouffe, by the way, earned $2.35m as a Super-2 in 2014, the same exact figure that Dexter Fowler made as a Super-2. If Arcia makes that jump this year and we're heading into the late summer, the Twins should absolutely explore the idea of an extension. Arcia should absolutely listen. If Arcia falls short of Super-2 status, he'll make somewhere around $575k next year. If he hits the yet-to-be-decided cutoff, he makes between four and five times that. Teams look for cost-certainly. Players look for stability. And at the end of the day, teams want control through a free agent year (or two). There are many times teams and players get creative and escalate the figures of a contract if guys qualify for Super-2 status. The Twins and Arcia, if he turns the corner, would benefit from hammering out a deal this summer. The worst thing that could happen for the Twins is the next wave arrives, the team gets competitive and their lack of being proactive forces them to lose part of their core, like Arcia. Of course, if he falls on his face this year, he might be in danger of being non-tendered as a Super-2 and this article is moot. Let's check back in July and see what Ozzie is in left field. Click here to view the article

Once you've named the first two kids with the same beginning letter, you've committed. I have a harder time with people who have the same first and last initials.

The thing about Stewart is that, despite not striking hardly anyone out, opponent's batting average is very low. You could point to a hard-to-maintain low BABIP, but from the sounds of it, not many people hit the ball hard against him... Imagine when he's throwing his best pitches, has better fielders behind him and can command his fastball. That's why he's so highly regarded.

When the Twins used the 4th overall pick in the 2013 draft on prep right-hander Kohl Stewart, it marked the earliest the Twins had drafted a pitcher since 2000. That was the year the Twins selected Adam Johnson second overall from Cal-State Fullerton. Stewart also became the highest drafted prep pitcher since the Twins took Willie Banks third overall in the 1987 draft. Adam Johnson broke Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects twice. Willie Banks took expectations a few steps higher, as he was twice ranked in Baseball America’s Top 15 prospects. As the old adage goes, “there is no such thing as a pitching prospect” and Johnson, with his one MLB win and 26.1 innings pitched, posted a -1.1 career bWAR. Comparatively, Banks fared much better, but don’t be fooled: in his 610.1 career innings as a pitcher, Banks was as replacement-level as they come. So as we proceed with the countdown, don’t forget: When it comes to pitching prospects, proceed with caution.Age: 20 (DOB: 10/7/94) 2014 Stats (Low-A): 87 IP, 3-5, 2.59 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 62/24 K/BB ETA: 2018 2014 Ranking: 4 What's To Like When the Twins added Stewart to their stable, they were adding a powerful right-handed arm. Stewart has a fastball that currently sits in the low-90s, but has been clocked at up to 97 mph. As a prep, he showed a slider that projected as a future plus pitch. He also flashed a changeup that impressed scouts. His scouting report has evolved through his one full season of professional baseball. He spent a lot of time at Cedar Rapids honing his fastball command. He didn’t throw his slider much, but instead relied on a curveball, a sinker that is new and a changeup. The full picture of Stewart can’t be painted without mention of the fact that he committed to Texas A&M to eventually compete to become the successor for Johnny Manziel and passed over scholarship offers from other schools, such as Notre Dame. Stewart passed on his football commitment when he decided to sign for $4.5444 million. Stewart comes from a very athletic family that includes seven children: Kyle, Kayla, Kohl, Kelly, Kade, Katie and Karli. Kelly plays volleyball for Auburn. Kade is an All-State prep golfer in Texas. What's Not To Like While there aren’t any red flags - if there were, there is no way the Twins invest a 4th overall pick on him - there are a few reasons to keep the caution flag handy. Stewart missed time in his debut season after cutting his foot on a seashell while walking the beach. No big deal. A bigger deal is that he missed a four-week span in 2014 with a right shoulder impingement. His return from the injury lasted only two outings - 5 ⅓ innings - before he was shut down for the season. That left Stewart at only 87 innings, short of the targeted 100-plus that previous prep pitchers have gotten in their first full season. The always-cautious Twins, who limited Stewart to 75 pitches per start in 2014, will continue being cautious with Stewart’s innings moving forward. Instead of the 140 innings that Jose Berrios threw a year removed from Cedar Rapids, Stewart is likely in line to throw somewhere between 115 and 125 innings. One number that has prospect-followers alarmed is 6.4. That number, of course, is Stewart’s K/9 during the 2014 season. How could an arm so electric produce only 62 strikeouts in 87 innings? Well, the answer, hopefully, is that the combination of working on his fastball command and trying to be frugal with his pitch-allotment, left Stewart striking out fewer batters than he’s ultimately capable of. Stewart, a Type-1 diabetic, also has a mound attitude that can rub opponents and umpires the wrong way. Time will tell how this will play out as Stewart matures. “He's very loyal and driven," his mother told the Pioneer Press shortly after being drafted. When he's passionate and invested, he's all in. So he really invests himself in whatever it is -- friendship, family, whatever." What's Next After spending a full season in the Midwest League, Stewart will get his first chance to crack the Florida State League in 2015. Stewart told Tyler Mason of Fox Sports North earlier this month that his shoulder feels stronger than ever and that he's reintroduced himself to a throwing routine that involves tossing around the ol' pigskin. Like Berrios did last year, Stewart hopes a strong first half can help him advance from Fort Myers to Chattanooga, which would leave him knocking on the big-league door. Realistically though, the projections haven't changed much since being drafted: Stewart is still a few years away and likely won't pitch in the majors until 2018. Let's just hope that when he gets there, he has more success than Adam Johnson and Willie Banks. Click here to view the article

When the Twins traded Ben Revere to the Phillies on December 6, 2012, fans expected immediate dividends from Vance Worley, who became the Opening Day starter less than four months later. We all know how that chapter of the story ended. We are also very familiar with how the second chapter of that trade began when Trevor May stepped on the mound to make his major league debut in Oakland on August 9, 2014. But his part of the story is far from over.Age: 25 (DOB: 9/23/89) 2014 Stats (AAA): 98 IP, 2.85 ERA, 1.163 WHIP, 94/39 K/BB (MLB): 45.2 IP, 7.88 ERA, 1.774 WHIP, 44/22 K/BB ETA: 2015 2014 Ranking: 10 What's To Like Since debuting as the Phillies 28th best prospect in 2009, according to Baseball America, May has spent the next six off-seasons wearing the “Top 10” label. His repertoire has largely stayed the same: the large-bodied right-hander features a low 90s fastball, a low-to-mid 80s changeup and both a 75-to-77 mph curveball and a slider in the low 80s. Combine that four-pitch mix with the fact that, up until missing a month last summer with a calf strain, May had never missed a start in his professional career, and you have the makings of a solid, back-end starter. May has also had a penchant for striking hitters out, too, supporting a 10.4 K/9 through his seven professional minor league seasons. In the high minors (AA and AAA), that number has dropped to a still-impressive 9.1. What's Left To Work On Though May offers a four-pitch mix, durability and high strikeout rates, there are two pretty significant roadblocks preventing him from becoming a top-of-the-rotation starter: inefficiency and lack of control. In his 45 2/3 inning MLB cameo, May averaged 18.67 pitches per inning. That’s about two pitches per inning higher than his year in AAA (16.11). To put that in perspective, Kyle Gibson (15.61 pitches per inning) and Phil Hughes (14.52) averaged much less. That’s the difference between going five innings in a start and the seven innings a team would love to get from their starter. The knock on May since his pro debut has been one of the reasons the pitch-count gets so high: walks. He has improved through time, though not enough, from 5.4 BB/9 in his 2010 full-season debut to 4.7 BB/9 in AA in 2012 to 3.6 BB/9 in his 98 AAA innings this year. His MLB debut saw him put up a 4.3 BB/9. What's Next There are two Trevor Mays you’re probably familiar with. The Trevor May who we all felt bad for on that summer night in Oakland. The Trevor May who labored through two innings and 63 pitches with only 28 strikes. The Trevor May who walked seven A’s batters. Then there’s the other Trevor May. The Trevor May who dominated AAA. The Trevor May who mowed down 10 Chicago White Sox without walking any. The Trevor May who was selected to pitch on the Target Field mound at the Futures Game. (He missed the game with the calf injury.) There are plenty of reasons to believe that we’ll see Trevor May secure the fifth and final rotation spot this spring. May will be under the tutelage of Neil Allen, who wants his pitchers ramped up to throw well over 100 pitches. May can look to #1 starter Phil Hughes who set an MLB record for lack of walks. And, finally, the Twins were in a similar position last spring before the guy (Kyle Gibson) with a rocky debut the previous season took hold of a rotation spot, the exact position that Trevor May is in coming to Fort Myers in 2015. If May fails to lock up the last rotation spot, the Twins will be in an interesting position: send the 25-year-old back to AAA, a level he owned last year, or move him to the bullpen. Click here to view the article

When I saw him in Cedar Rapids he threw three pitches: A super fastball and two sliders - one in the zone that locked up knees and one that people chased out of the zone. It was very electric.

Greatest Twin to ever come from Bradley University! You all realize that my feelings for Murphy stem from me correctly projecting the Twins drafting him exactly when they did... and then him tearing up the Appy League. It was a snowball that just kept keeps rolling.

Lol. "Threadjack" a minor league prospect list thread by talking about other people's/website's prospect lists? I had Minier as my #17 prospect in the 2013 version and had hopes that he could stick at 3B, felt good that - unlike Sano or Polanco - he skipped over the DSL completely. Loved his bat. Dropped him off in 2014 amid the shoulder issue he had fixed in the off-season and didn't think he'd get a full year in, wanted to see how he'd recover. He had a good enough year to get back on the list (#23), but the 50/50 chance that he ends up as a 1B left him lower in my mind (same with Diaz). Obviously, I'll re-evaluate that thought next off-season. There's too many questions, for me, to rank him ahead of the guys I had in the Top 20. Turner checked in with him at #18. I believe Turner to be a better prospect than Garver, who I had at #22. For me, Garver has less offensive upside than Minier, but more defensive certainty. So I gave Garver the nod over Minier. I believe Turner's defense outranks Garver's, even though Garver is better with the stick. Again all my opinions, which will probably be wrong. Apparently you know better... Thrylos, on 03 Feb 2015 - 6:38 PM, said: Turner over Minier? And Duffey 16th in this system? Ouch!

I wasn't just going to dump my whole list on there... I wanted to show how they were bunched up. BTW - I am assigned to write a couple Top 10s. If Murphy doesn't show up by then... HE JUST MIGHT!!!

I'm going to error on the side of optimism that Thorpe's elbow was nothing but a hiccup. This group of mine went like this... 8 – Lewis Thorpe – LHP – Cedar Rapids Kernels . . . 14 – Max Kepler – OF – Ft. Myers Miracle 15 – Taylor Rogers – LHP – New Britain Rock Cats 16 – Adam Brett Walker – OF – Ft. Myers Miracle 17 – Stephen Gonsalves – LHP – Elizabethton, Cedar Rapids 18 – Stuart Turner – C – Ft. Myers Miracle I think we can see how there is a pretty solid "bunch" in this range.

I thought you'd pick up the sarcasm dripping from that comment.

Those know-nothings at Baseball America had Walker at #17. Four spots behind Turner and nine spots ahead of Minier.

Start a clock when a player makes his full-season debut. If he's out of options before year 5, he get a 4th option year. Essentially, if you're added after your first full season, you get a 4th option year, if needed. That's why it really didn't matter that the Twins almost burned an option year on Arcia last year, then didn't... cause, regardless, he was getting an option year this year. Polanco and Kepler were both added after their first year in Cedar Rapids - so of course you add them - cause that next year (their first option year) essentially served as a redshirt year to their next three option years.

Very much the truth. Scouts saw very little improvement in his curveball between his sophomore and senior years in high school. That's what dropped him from the first round. The Twins belief (right or wrong) wasn't that he couldn't do it, but that he wasn't getting the proper coaching and that it would improve once he got in the system. I don't think it's progressed as quickly as hoped, but it's obviously far from over...

You could probably start discussions with the Phillies if you include both Meyer and May. If you add in another Top 10 prospect (like Polanco), you might get the ball rolling. I'm still not sure that's enough. I'm also not sure I'd do it if I was the Twins.

Says the guy that rated Buxton, MLB.com's #1 overall prospect, third in the Twins system? You're going to pick on Turner over Minier?

That's who Duffey was coming into last season. And early last season. It's this changeup that has him becoming a prospect. Ben Badler at BA did a write up on Duffey in mid-July calling what he saw a "plus changeup". He also said his curveball (Duffey's words) is actually a swing-and-miss slider. And had him clocked at 96, but worked 91-94. He then moved up to AAA and got 16(!) swinging strikes in his debut. Not to mention, increased his K/9 each month as he moved from high-A to AA to AAA. #BelieveInDuffey

Of course Fryer will be on the 40-man by then... but neither he nor Pinto are "long-term" catchers. I don't expect Turner to put up huge offensive numbers either. But I'd still put him next in line to be the "primary" catcher.

But when Murphy rakes and gets promoted straight to the bigs, they're going to need another OF. Or, like I said, someone gets hurt... Vielma wasn't supposed to get his shot at Low-A last year... and then he did and ran with it.