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TWINS TO PARTNER WITH XCEL ENERGY FOR NEW SUSTAINABILITY INITIATIVE
 
Target Field to be MLB's only sustainable ballpark by June 2016
 
From Wire Services
 
MINNEAPOLIS, MN -- The Minnesota Twins announced an initiative in conjunction with Xcel Energy to install an fully operational wind farm beyond the center field wall in Target Field. Upon opening in 2010, the center field wall included several evergreen trees which were subsequently removed due to complaints that such a natural setting was distracting to the batter's eye. The windmills, which will be painted white, will provide a permanent visual experience for fans and players alike. Coupled with it's first-of-its-kind rainwater recycling system resulting from the team's partnership with Pentair, a worldwide leader in water solutions, Target Field is expected to be fully sustainable by early June 2016.
 
At a strikeout rate of 11.3 per game, Twins management expect the repetitive swings and misses should generate enough wind to power the entire stadium for the remainder for the season. "Should we fall below that average" indicated Team President Dave St. Peter, "we are prepared to call up Adam Brett Walker and Kennys Vargas to start in Left and Center Field, respectively". St. Peter also disclosed that the wind farm can be run in reverse for whenever Phil Hughes has a home start.
 
When reached for comment, Twins television analyst Bert Blyleven added, "Why don't they add some [redacted] tulips so I can pretend I'm back in Holland whenever Byung Ho Park comes to the plate?"

The 2015 Minnesota Twins returned to relevance for the first time since the 2010 Major League Baseball season. After a rocky first few games, a spring run put Paul Molitor's club in a great position down the stretch. Not being eliminated from playoff contention until the final weekend hampered Minnesota from exploring some less entrenched options, but no one was a by-product of that reality more than Michael Tonkin.
 
Last season, the Twins jumped down a rabbit hole that has now begun to come full circle. Employing the worst bullpen in the big leagues by multiple statistical measures, they left a lot of things unanswered. One of the biggest misses of those "things" was whether or not Michael Tonkin can be effective at the big league level.
A season ago, Tonkin was a 25 year old pitching at Triple-A Rochester. On the season, he posted a 1.10 ERA along with a 10.1 K/9 and walked just 1.1 batters per nine innings. After a 2.80 ERA in 2014 at Triple-A, it appeared pretty apparent that Tonkin was ready for a new challenge.
 
In "understanding" that, the Twins called upon him. In fact, they did so five different times. During the 2015 season, Tonkin was promoted to Minnesota on five different occasions (meaning he was demoted as well). Of those five promotions, two of them lasted just one game, while a third was played out over the course of four appearances. In total, Tonkin gave the Twins 23.1 IP to the tune of a 3.47 ERA and a 7.3 K/9. Those numbers were all compiled while the Twins learned little to nothing about what they had, and in turn, Tonkin about himself.
 
Sure, Minnesota was in the midst of a competitive season that saw them narrowly miss the playoffs, but does that really excuse things? Remember, the Twins owned one of the big leagues worst bullpens a season ago. A.J. Achter, Tim Stauffer, and Aaron Thompson were given a combined total of 60.2 IP despite none of them owning better than a 5.00 ERA. Brian Duensing, owner of a 4.25 ERA and a 4.4 K/9 threw 48.2 IP for the 2015 Twins, and Casey Fien pumped a 5.83 K/9 rate during his 63.1 IP. To summarize, Minnesota chose to give struggling and low ceiling options more run than instead to figure out what they may be sitting on.
 
That leads us to where we are now. Over the course of spring training, Tonkin did everything he could to not make the club. Despite being what seemed to be a roster lock thanks to being out of options, the 26 year old generated a 7.88 ERA across 8.0 IP. The small sample size makes numerical conclusions difficult, but he gave up earned runs in four of his seven appearances, and had as many games result in multi-hit appearances. A team looking to improve upon a bad bullpen wouldn't have carried Tonkin, but the Twins saw their hands tied as they still don't know what they have.
 
At the break of spring training, ESPN 1500's Derek Wetmore asked me if I believed Tonkin would be claimed on waivers, and if so, I would be ok with it. I answered that I thought there was better than a 50% chance he would be, and that it wouldn't necessarily bother me. From a roster standpoint, the Twins relief options on the farm are some of the best in all of baseball. There's reason to believe that the pen is overhauled and turned into an area of strength. From the notion of how Tonkin was handled however, it would be troubling.
 
In selecting Ricky Nolasco for the rotation, Minnesota spared Tonkin a roster spot. It absolutely should be Tyler Duffey pitching among the five, and Nolasco in the pen, but in handling things the way they did, the Twins once again put Tonkin in an odd spot. Now on the roster as a carryover, Tonkin is being asked to pitch in a long relief role.
Thus far in his career (60 MLB games) Tonkin has thrown more than 25 pitches just 10 times. Minnesota elected to stretch him out on the Saturday before Opening Day, he threw 53 pitches. In doing so, Tonkin was not available for the rain delayed (per Derek Wetmore and relayed by Curse Of Punto), and didn't make his debut in his new role.
 
What things have boiled down to with Michael Tonkin is a really unfortunate narrative. A guy that excelled at the highest level of the farm system the past two years was never given an opportunity to produce, is now being included out of necessity, and is being utilized in a less than favorable role. Sure, things could all work out wonderfully, but could there have been a more backwards way of going about it?
I definitely don't think so.
 
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Originally Published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
----
 
Today was the last live game from Fort Myers. Yesterday, I shared some thoughts about the Twins 25-man roster and based on what I have seen previously, Rickey Nolasco should be the Twins' fifth starter. With another stellar performance today against the Rays, going for 6 innings allowing only 3 hits, no earned runs, walking 2 and striking out 7, he cemented that position, especially when in Field number 2 his only competition, Tyler Duffey, allowed two home runs among other hard hit balls this afternoon. Pending a trade, I can see no way that Nolasco will not be in the Twins' rotation, and arguably has pitched pretty well this spring, earning a spot.
 
Glen Perkins' appearance today and the rest of the Spring has been worrisome. His fastball barely reached 91 and his slider 81, and has been batter all over Hammond Stadium without finishing an inning. In 2/3 of an inning he allowed 2 hits and a walk with no strikeouts, adding up to 3 runs. I hope Terry Ryan has a plan B in his back pocket for a closer, because Perkins is continuing his decline from last season second half.
 
As far as position players go, Eduardo Nunez was horrible today: Two errand throws to the first and a dropped ball on a base steal attempt did not help the Twins' cause. Let's call it a hick up and hope that it will not continue to happen.
 
Byron Buxton has a lackluster performance a couple days ago, but today, he made up for it. He has a great running catch in the first innings and also got an infield hit in a ball hit deep in the shortstop, in the same situation he did not previously. I think that he also might be cementing a spot in the 25 man roster.
 
So is Danny Santana, who got an infield hit in a drag bunt, then stole second, and in a play that featured 3 errant throws by Rays scored. Great heads up play, plus his speed and versatility will help.
 
Oswaldo Arcia likely won the last 25 man spot over former hated White Sox player Carlos Quentin. Arcia has been better on the field that Quentin, making some difficult plays, whereas Quentin has no position, and has been better with the stick and the basepaths, stealing a couple of bases so far. I think that Quentin was brought in as a plan B if Byung Ho Park did not pan out right away as a 1B/DH, but this is not the case. So it looks like the Twins' position player side in the 25 man roster is about set. There are still some question-marks in the bullpen, as I indicated yesterday.
 
Next: Catching an airplane up North tomorrow and either later this week or early next will will give my Spring Training Redux and my prediction for the Twins' 2016. Still need to chew on this a bit...

During the 2015 season, few areas were worse off than the Twins bullpen. Minnesota didn't strike anyone out, there were largely without reliable arms, and late game leads were far from safe. Coming into 2016, making an improvement in relief was no doubt a priority, but the execution of that decision seemed to come from different trains of thought.
 
Now with the 2016 season nearly here, the Twins bullpen has largely been decided. Glen Perkins, Kevin Jepsen, and Trevor May are all locks. Casey Fien was offered a new deal through arbitration, and Michael Tonkin is out of options. Former free agent signee Ricky Nolasco needs a place to pitch, and Minnesota needs another lefty in relief. Outside of the question as to whether it will be Fernando Abad or Taylor Rogers, Paul Molitor's relief corps seems decided upon.
 
The group assembled in 2016 will be looking to take some significant steps forward. A year ago, Twins relievers struck out an MLB worst 6.85 per nine innings. A 4.20 FIP was among the lower third in the big leagues, and a 1.7 fWAR had the group tied for 7th worst in the majors. Outside of Glen Perkins' first half, and Kevin Jepsen's late season boost, things could have been markedly worse.
 
So in making the bullpen a priority, Terry Ryan and the Twins needed to fix things. A season ago, they were caught making remarks that the collective media needed to relax, and that things would be just fine. That obviously couldn't have been further from the truth, but those sentiments have not been muttered this time. Instead, the Twins have stood their ground and watched as arms have been signed while they've stood idly by.
 
In fact, it's their inaction that has brought up the question, just what is the narrative for the Twins relievers in 2016? As Matt Thornton, another lefty, was plucked off the market on an MiLB deal, this comment was offered on Twitter:
The problem is, I'm not sure that's entirely fair.
 
Without a doubt the Twins stood pat when it came to the bullpen in a larger sense, but in the grand scheme of things, they really didn't. Knowing the club needed a lefty, Ryan went out and nabbed Abad on a minor league deal. An organizational belief that he was tipping his pitches to the tune of a 4.15 ERA a season ago, Abad is just a year removed from a 1.57 ERA and 8.0 K/9. Should he return to any semblance of that, a nominal MiLB deal could end up being the best move of the winter.
 
Minnesota repeated that same type of acquisition in claiming former Brewers lefty Mike Strong, and targeting Dan Runzler along with Buddy Boshers. The trio no doubt has a significantly lower upside than that of Abad, but Minnesota only needs one of the group to stick.
 
Then there's the reality that relief arms are actually an area of strength for Ryan at the present time. Mostly on the right side, Minnesota has Alex Meyer, J.T. Chargois, Nick Burdi, and Jake Reed all looking like they should be capable of big league innings this year. Add in lefty Taylor Rogers, and there's plenty of home grown options that have ceilings largely greater than what the market presented.
 
Back to the point above, how can we actually view a Twins collapse? If things don't work out with Abad, Rogers, or one of the other lefty candidates, what gets said? Should it be that Ryan needed to spend $18 million for three years of Tony Sipp? Maybe $12 million for two years of Antonio Bastardo made sense? The reality is however, that relievers are generally a fickle beast, and something that can be made out of nowhere. Sipp is a couple of years removed from a near 5.00 ERA while Bastardo almost posted a 4.00 mark in 2014.
 
So, is there a right way or a wrong way to be upset should things crash and burn for the Twins? The short answer is that I don't know. However, I've always been a big proponent of bullpens either being creative, or expensive, the middle ground is an ugly desolate wasteland. Right now, the Twins fall in the former category (with a team like the Yankees being the blueprint for the later).
 
Ryan didn't go spend on a position (albeit of need), that is often easy to develop, and one with internal options. He's banking on internal evaluations saying that Abad will work out, and that the kids who've been knocking on the door are ready to go. Big contracts in the pen would have no doubt delayed a more deserving arm (Ricky Nolasco anyone?), and it's time the Twins system becomes utilized at the big league level.
 
Nothing says that Minnesota's relief corps will take a massive step forward in the year ahead. Deciding to go with top prospects and good (low risk) bets though, is a strategy I can applaud. We'll soon see how it plays out, but at the end of the day, I'm not sure to stiff of an argument can be made against the process.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

I see where MLB Network is showing a Bob Costas tribute to Rod Carew next Tuesday at 8 p.m.
This reminded me of a spring training game about 2 years ago. For those of you not familiar
with Hammond Stadium the stands run along the 3rd base side to just past the infield. Then
comes the Twins bullpen area and outside of that is a picnic area with concrete tables. Above
this area is a concrete ceiling and above that is a big bar area with railings all around. As you
stand in this bar area and face home plate to your left is the main field and to the right is a
small infield size field called the Tom Kelly field where he conducts his famous "Good Morning,
America" infield drills.
This particular day Aaron Hicks and Pedro Florimon were both nursing minor injuries and were
not scheduled to play. A few of us standing at the rail noticed Rod Carew take Hicks and Florimon
to Tom Kelly field to practice bunting. Paul Molitor began feeding a pitching machine while the
two took turns bunting with Carew talking softly behind home plate. About halfway through
the basket of balls someone came to relieve Molitor who left. During this brief time out Carew
took one of the bats and scratched a line in the dirt parallel with the 3rd base line and about a
foot inside. We couldn't hear him but assumed he told them to either hit that line or bunt between
the line and 3rd base line.
They both batted left handed and used up the rest of the balls. Some bunts were good, some not
so good, and some pretty bad. When they finished they picked up all the balls and refilled the
basket then started to leave.
Carew motioned to Hicks to hand him his bat. Carew walked to the batters box and just stood
there without taking a hitters stance and motioned for one more pitch. He bunted the ball perfectly
right down that line in the dirt and handed the bat back to Hicks. Hicks shook his head in
disbelief as they walked off the field.
We all wish Mr. Carew renewed good health and many more spring training appearances.

This has become a huge issue, especially with Buster Olney. First let me say that I love reading Olney's stuff, he's one of my favorite baseball writers. Plus he's a huge Vikings fan to boot. But I really disagree with him on this. As a 30 plus year Twins fan I've seen a lot if bad baseball played by my favorite team. The 4 straight years that the Twins lost 90 plus games before breaking the streak last year were not fun. But I'm the fan that wants to see my team win championships, not try to finish above .500. In those 4 years I had no interest in bringing in the kind of guys that Buster always talks about. Major leaguers with 4 to 8 years of experience that will cost a few million a season and will slightly improve your team. I don't care if the Twins win 66 or 72 games a year. If they are bad just be bad. I live in Dallas but I grew up in Minnesota. I am a Vikings season ticket holder and come home to Minnesota numerous times of the year. I see several Twins games a year at Target Field and watch most games on iPad. When I come to a game in Aug or Sept I would much rather watch Vargas or Rosario hit then some random veteran who might be slightly better at that moment. I don't care about spending or saving the Pohkads money. I just want to see the franchise moving forward. Sometimes moving forward means taking a few steps back. I use the T-Wolves as an example. A few years ago when Love was still here they went out and signed a couple of veterans like Kevin Martin and resigned Buddinger and Pekovic. I wasn't really excited by that team because to me it looked like a team that was going be a 6 seed at best. That means a solid winning team but defeats in the 1st round every year. That's not what I want. All of last year I was more excited by that Wolves team than any of the Love led versions even though they only won 16 games. We finally had a piece in Wiggins that could lead a team to a championship and by being really bad last year we got the #1 overall pick which turned out to be Towns. Now Towns looks like an absolute beast and we have 2 franchise cornerstones. I can absolutely see Towns and Wiggins leading the T-WOLVES to a championship. If we had used Buster's logic we would have signed a couple of veterans so that we could have won 29 games instead of 16. Still no where near the playoffs and we'd have Stanley Johnson instead of Towns. Maybe I'm looking at this the wrong way but I want championships not playoff appearances. If that means my favorite teams need to be a little worse in down years so they can be a little better in up years, I'll take that every time.

There has been a lot of angst this offseason about the Twins not signing an experienced bullpen arm or two. I feel like January 2014 all over again. Everyone was saying we needed to sign some starting pitching. In back to back years we have signed Nolasco and Santana. If you go by salary our rotation would be Santana, Hughes, Nolasco, Milone and Gibson. If you went by actually trying to win you would probably go Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Duffy and Berrios. The 1st rotation would cost around 40 Million this year. The 2nd would cost less than 25 Million. Does anyone really want Nolasco and Milone in the rotation over Duffy and Berrios? Looking at 2017 would anyone want Nolasco, Milone and Santana over Duffy, Berrios and Stewart or Gonzalves?
 
I feel like it is the same way with bullpen arms now this season. Have we learned nothing? Everyone is clamoring for us to hand out bloated contracts to the likes of Bastardo and O'Day. I don't care about saving or spending the Pohlads money. I want the Twins to have the best team on the field. Having a guy like Bastardo might have meant a slight improvement for the bullpen for April and May. But I don't want to have any of those guys holding spots and keeping young guys from coming up. There is so much bullpen talent that is very close to being ready. From the right side you have Tonkin, Presley, Burdi, Reed, Chargois, Peterson and Paulson who have all pitched in AA already. From the left side you have Rogers, Darnel, Melotakis and Booser. Almost everyone of these guys hits 95 or higher on the gun. The 2 guys that don't are excellent against lefties. In April the bullpen I'd like to see is Perkins, May, Jepsen, Fien, Tonkin, Rogers and Nolasco. Come June 1st I would love for it to be Perkins, May, Jepsen, Burdi, Tonkin, Melotakis and Rogers. That is a young but extremely talented and hard throwing bullpen that can compete with Kansas City. Plus it would cost slightly more than Darren O'Day is making this season.

This offseason, few areas had more of an emphasis on them than that of the Minnesota Twins bullpen. While the situation as a whole needed addressing, it was the left handed contingent that no doubt left the most to be desired. Having significant deficiencies in late innings a season ago cost the Twins, and there appears to be two strategies at play when it comes to fixing things moving forward.
 
On the left-handed side of the relief picture, the Twins have moved on from roster staple Brian Duensing. Arguably sticking with him a year or so too long, Duensing was the epitome of the Twins shortcomings in relief a season ago. He owned a pedestrian 4.25 ERA, stuck no one out (4.4 K/9) and walked too many batters (3.9 BB/9). Heading into 2016 with Glen Perkins as the lone left handed option, the Twins needed to seek outside help.
 
In scouring the market, the deal the New York Mets handed to Antonio Bastardo (2 years, $12m) seemingly provides the most uproar when it comes to the Twins handling of their pen. An affordable deal in an otherwise ballooning relief market, Bastardo on his own could have made sense for Minnesota. With how Minnesota acted prior to him being signed however, their stance on the left all but makes sense.
 
Early on in the offseason, the Twins targeted left-handed reliever Fernando Abad, formerly of the Oakland Athletics. His K/9 rate (8.5) was a career high a season ago, but it was the ugly ERA (4.15) and FIP (5.50) numbers, along with decreased velocity (down nearly 2 mph on his fastball) that led to him earning just an MiLB deal. The Twins were noted to believe that Abad had been tipping his pitches per LaVelle Neal, and Parker Hageman of Twins Daily broke that down wonderfully. What the signing of Abad indicates is a stance in belief of an internal process, and the work of pitching coach Neil Allen.
 
Minnesota is almost assuredly going to roll with Abad come Opening Day. Brought in as a non-roster invitee to spring training, Abad has the potential to earn a couple million should he make the team. In using this approach, Terry Ryan put faith in his coaches, as well as the internal belief that Abad has more to offer. From the moment the deal was struck, it became illogical for the Twins to offer a multi-year deal with Bastardo or anyone else of similar situation.
 
Had the Twins decided to bring in a more certain left-handed reliever, and on a multi-year deal, the plan with Abad likely would have been moot prior to even getting off of the ground. Sticking to the belief that he will work had to be the plan all the way through. As an insurance policy should things go wrong, the Twins could look to double down on another MiLB type deal.
 
Internally, Minnesota would turn to the likes of Mike Strong, Pat Dean, or Taylor Rogers for left-handed relief. A more proven veteran option could include someone like Neal Cotts or Matt Thornton. Both have the likely possibility of landing an MLB deal, but Minnesota could ask nonetheless. With the Abad situation playing out as it has however, the Twins are best served to put no one in front of him for a roster spot at this point.
 
That leads us to the second strategy that Ryan, Paul Molitor, and the Twins seem to be leaning towards. Although one of the largest roster issues at the top is relief pitching, it's actually one of the organizations greatest strengths as well. On the farm, the likes of Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, J.T. Chargois, and Mason Melotakis are not far off. Obviously varying in expectations, each of them could be called upon to be key contributors in relief during the 2016 season.
On the right-handed side of the bullpen, Minnesota decided to make no moves. Although Brandon Kintzler was brought into the fold, he appears to be more minor league depth than anything. There was no move for Tyler Clippard, or anyone else of significant substance for that matter. By all estimations, that should signify an aggressive approach internally.
 
The Twins won't be moving on from Glen Perkins, Kevin Jepsen, or Trevor May any time soon, but that would appear to be where the sure things in the bullpen end. Should Casey Fien, Michael Tonkin or someone else falter, pulling performers that have been drafted in the organization is a noble idea. Burdi, Reed, Chargois, and even Alex Meyer all have the ability to bring a level of velocity and strikeout totals not witnessed in relief for Minnesota in quite some time. The biggest contingent to this strategy is Minnesota actually following through on it.
 
Having not made guaranteed moves at the major league level, Minnesota cannot be shy about aggressively asking its prospects to come up and contribute. I see the group of Burdi, Chargois, and Reed all making a big league debut by the end of July, and that would be a successful follow up to the way the offseason was handled. Slow playing those prospects while not making a more certain move at the top would remain contradictory.
 
As things stand now, the Twins are still likely listening in on what the market is dictating. The two worst moves that they could make at this point are simple however. Signing a left-handed reliever to a multi-year deal for guaranteed money, or signing any right-handed pitcher to anything but a multi-year deal. We've addressed the former and the implications it would have against any strategy employed with Fernando Abad. The latter, barring Tyler Clippard walking through the door, would negate a desire to reap the fruits of your system. A caveat to the second situation, is that Ryan and company must follow through by going internal for a relief boost.
 
On paper, it appears that the Twins have more strategy than they are being credited with when it comes to filling out the pen. It remains to be seen whether or not that ends up resulting in action.
 
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Thus far, the Minnesota Twins major moves this offseason came before free agency got underway. The club signed Byung Ho Park and traded for John Ryan Murphy. Despite having a rather ineffective bullpen a season ago, the club hasn't really addressed the situation to this point. With the way the market has shaped up however, that may be the best choice.
 
So far, the Twins have taken fliers on players like Fernando Abad and Brandon Kintzler. Signed to minor league deals with spring training implications, it's essentially Terry Ryan and crew asking veterans to prove it. Rather than doling out big money, they've taken the path of least resistance. If that was the only thing the Twins had going for them, I'd have much more concern. The reality is, they don't.
 
The Pittsburgh Pirates just inked former fireballing closer Neftali Feliz to a one-year deal just shy of $4 million. Last season Felix owned a 6.38 ERA split between the Rangers and Tigers. His strikeout rates dipped again, and he continued a career long path of less than ideal walk rates. In fact, Feliz hasn't been reliable (mostly for health reasons) since 2011, a year after he won the Rookie of the Year.
 
With deals like that of Feliz floating around the market, and many teams looking to replicate the dominant bullpen that the Kansas City Royals patented, money has gone over the top. Tony Sipp, who was just a short time removed from a DFA action, will play for a $6 million average annual value over the next three seasons. Thanks to the Royals, and the emergence of bullpen importance, the relief market has exploded. In Minnesota's case though, the best route may actually have been to stand pat.
 
There's a pretty logical argument to be made that it will be Abad who emerges from spring training with a big league roster spot. No doubt both sides could see the mutual benefit of one another, and Abad is just a year removed from a 1.57 ERA and 8.0 K/9 for the Athletics. As a low risk placeholder, Minnesota could have done significantly worse.
 
What makes the Twins best suited to take the plan of action they seem to have embarked on though is not the minor league signings they have inked, but instead their own internal option. Among my 2016 Top 15 Twins Prospects, ten players are pitchers. As of this moment, four of those ten are already relievers. As they saying goes, failed starters make some of the best relievers, so it's safe to assume a transition of at least a couple more will take place.
 
Thus far, the Twins have begun to roll the ball down the path of clearing the way for the fruits of their labor to be unleashed. In drafting players like Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, and J.T. Chargois, the Twins have compiled strong relief arms. Rather than go over the top on an inflated pitching market, Minnesota controls its own fate from within the internal talent pool.
 
Looking at what Feliz has been for the majority of his career, there's a solid argument to be made that at least one of Reed, Burdi, or Chargois outproduces him in 2015. Alex Meyer seems to factor into the Twins bullpen, and Tyler Jay could eventually return to that designation as well. As a whole, Minnesota has plenty of projectable contributors already within the organization.
 
Should the Twins decide to slow-play the aforementioned pitching prospects, or not use them at all, it would be quite the unfortunate step backwards. They've opened the door to reworking their relief corps into a strength through internal options, but the process has to continue. Both Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor must be aware and willing to call upon the young arms that truly can help at the next level. By not signing big deal relievers, there's no impending road blocks for the Twins to continue along the current path. The organization must continue to remember that as those prospects begin to force their hand.
 
In all situations, choosing a cheaper or less risky route isn't completely ideal. With the organizations current makeup however, and the handful of solid relief prospects, the Twins may have started down a road that makes a lot of sense in the year ahead. The biggest mistake at this point would be to turn around.
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In 1971, the average age of MLB non-DH starting position players was 28.9. This began rising steadily year-by-year to a peak of 30.1 years of age in 1996. One could assume this was due largely to players’ careers being extended artificially by PEDs – or one could possibly assume teams were selecting older players in the amateur draft or perhaps being more deliberate with their prospects. Based on how the trend changes following a senate hearing, a BALCO bust and a couple of Jose Canseco tell-all books, however, I mostly assume the former.
 
And here’s how the trend changed. The average age of starting MLB position players has dropped by 3 years! (To 26.9.) This reverting-to-youth trend is observed at every position.
 


 
Pitchers -who have been hovering around the same average age of 29 for the last 35 years - were younger in comparison to hitters through the 70s, 80s, and 90s but are now older in comparison – even though their trend has been moving slightly downward since 2004. (Dotted black line - based on the top-10 innings-pitched pitchers on each team each season)
 
 


 
A three-year shift in the age of hitters means teams are increasingly built around the earlier contracts of players. A larger number of players at low-end salaries means even more money thrown into the fewer top-end salaries - meaning the pay gap gets bigger and bigger and the already-dwindling MLB middle class gets even smaller. (Basically one Donald Trump on the payroll and 24 fast-food drive-through employees)
 
To me, these changes represent a major philosophical shift in the way baseball teams now make decisions but no one seems to be talking about it. A three-year shift in the average age of players is huge.

If you've been a fan of the Minnesota Twins for a while, you're probably sick of hearing about payroll. It's a topic that's beaten to death, and the criticisms are often contradictory.
 
People will rip the ownership for not spending more out of one side of their mouth and ridicule them for overpaying Joe Mauer out the other. You can't have it both ways.
 
In no way am I trying to suggest ownership or the front office shouldn't be questioned. I'm just saying those are tired and lazy arguments and it's time to point frustrations in a new direction.
 
The most important positive step the organization could take would be to stop taking into account how much money it has invested in a player when making roster decisions. They need to stop being so cheap, and accept the fact when they've made a poor investment.
 
As much as I would have loved to see the Twins sign an ace or dump a bunch of money into the bullpen, the team's decision not to is entirely defensible. Big, long-term contracts almost never work out and relievers are pretty unreliable from one year to the next.
 
It wasn't long ago all these multi-year contracts to relievers would have been met with pretty much universal disdain. But, of course, the Royals have changed all that. It's a copycat league.
 
What is indefensible is to refuse to give up on guys like Mauer or Ricky Nolasco in an attempt to save face despite having numerous better options.
 
As a big Mauer apologist, I'll always hold out hope that he'll get back to being an on-base machine. Maybe the farther Mauer gets from his concussion the more likely it gets he'll regain his hand-eye skills. And I don't think we've ever seen Nolasco healthy in a Twins uniform. There's some reason to hold out hope for him, too.
 
But if it starts to look like more of the same from either Mauer or Nolasco the club must move them into lower profile roles. The goal has to be winning games, not protecting egos.
 
The Twins don't necessary need to spend a bunch of money to build a playoff team. All they need to do is put the best 25 guys on the roster and set roles based on skills and performance rather than service time and contract status.

Steamer projections are available for 2016. Steamer uses the last three seasons of data to project the 2016 season. It is easy to write projections off as "guesses" but they are based on a significant amount of historical data. If interested you can read more about the various projection systems and rankings for 2014 here.
 
Projected Twin starters with games started, ERA and their rank (compared to the 169 pitchers with 20 projected starts). I use ERA because it is projected performance that is based on previous year's peripherals.
 
Phil Hughes 32, 4.20 #121
Ervin Santana 31, 4.34 #140
Kyle Gibson 29, 4.15 #117
Ricky Nolasco 19, 4.34 (#140)
Tommy Milone 16, 4.10 (#112)
Tyler Duffey 13, 4.19 (#121)
Jose Berrios 11, 3.99 (#92)
 
Comparing the 169 starters projected for at least 20 starts the median ERA is 3.90 in Ian Kennedy. The ERA's in the AL are generally higher. Last year the NL had a better league ERA by 0.10 so the median AL starter might be around 3.95 and the median NL starter around 3.85.
 
The Twins do not fare well. The Twins have one pitcher with a projected performance that would fit a number 3 starter around the league median in Berrios. Gibson, Milone and Hughes look to be number 4 starters with Hughes on the fringe. Nolasco and Santana fit in with the number 5 starters. Trevor May's projected ERA of 3.49 is based on relief work. His outstanding 3.25 FIP last year leads to his solid ERA projection.
 
What about the rest of the AL central?
 
The Indians have some of the best starters in baseball. Kluber(3.02) and Carrasco(3.04) are clear number 1s. Salazar is a fringe number 1 ranking 29 with a 3.44 projection. Tomlin(3.82) is a solid number 3 and Bauer is a fringe #4 matching Hughes at 4.20.
 
The Royals have two pitchers projected better than the median in Ventura (3.51) and Zimmer(3.84). Two others projected to be around the AL median in Duffy(3.93) and Medlin(4.00). The projection for Volquez is 4.27 which is in the midst of number 5 starters.
 
Verlander(3.77) and Sanchez(3.84) top the projected median, but the Tigers run thin after those two. Norris(4.28), Boyd(4.28) and Farmer(4.75) all project to be number 5 starters or worse. I would expect the Tigers will add to their pitching staff before the start of 2016.
 
The White Sox have the elite Chris Sale(2.82). Thankfully the Twins owned him last year. Quintana is projected well above the median at 3.70. Rodon might be a fringe #3 at 4.05. The other two Johnson(4.72) and Danks (4.75) ranked 165 and 167 of the 169 pitchers. The White Sox might add pitching also.
 
The Twins have a problem. They have invested too much money in the bottom of their rotation. This type of performance was projected at the time of their signing. They can hope that Santana, Hughes and Nolasco outperform their projections. One might. It is very unlikely that all three will. The Tigers and White Sox have not invested the same kind of money into the bottom of their pitching staffs. The White Sox have one more year of money invested in Danks. The Twins have 2-4 more years invested into Nolasco, Santana and Hughes. Their contracts would make them very difficult to move.
 
If May is included as a starter, the top five projected pitcher ERAs on the Twins next year are May, Berrios, Milone, Gibson and Duffy. Any chance the Twins will go with that rotation?

It's been a tale of two season thus far for the Twins. After racing out to a 49-40 record prior to the All Star Break, Minnesota had positioned itself in the heart of the AL Wild Card race. Since then however, the club has gone 10-20, or completely in the tank. It's not at all fair to suggest it wasn't seen coming, and honestly, it may have even been welcomed.
 
Going into the break, Kyle Gibson owned one of the best 15 ERA's in all of Major League Baseball. Forget that his FIP (fielding independent pitching) mark was north of 4.00, the Twins were happy with their former first rounder. Gibson though wasn't the only one, FIP suggested multiple Twins starters were in for some unpleasant surprises. That same fate seemed to be coming to a few bullpen pitchers as well, despite the output in relief already being lackluster.
 
Timely hitting had been the name of the game for the offense. Joe Mauer was hanging his hat on a ridiculous batting average in high leverage situations. Torii Hunter had staved off the fact that he's 40 years old, and Brian Dozier was pushing past the best second basemen discussion and into the big league's best player. Then, as it has a way of doing, baseball normalized.
 
The Twins own a -29 run differential (the only second place team in any division to be negative), and an ugly 21-36 record. Since the break, it hasn't been regression for one or two players, but rather an implosion across the board.
 
Hunter has slashed just .162/.207/.308 since July 1, and he's been as much of a defensive liability as Oswaldo Arcia. Glen Perkins went from saving 28 straight games, to owning an 8.10 ERA in 11 games after the break. Mauer looked to be turning a corner with a respectable May, but has slashed just .243/.314/.346 since the break. Finally, the stud Dozier, he's become a home run or bust type in every sense of the term. Following his All Star Game blast off of Mark Melancon, Dozier has slashed .212/.276/.416 with six home runs. He's struck out 37 times while walking just 10 times in that span.
 
At the trade deadline, the Twins began to see the writing on the wall. Rather than chasing after a team like the Blue Jay who had added David Price and Troy Tulowitzki, Terry Ryan held his cards and decided to play a truer window. Rather than deal assets for 2015 fixes, he made a move for a controllable reliever in Kevin Jepsen. Unfortunately, the bullpen has gone only further downhill.
 
Next through the revolving door for the Twins was lefty specialist Ryan O'Rourke. After debuting relatively strong, his last 7 outings have been to the tune of an 18.90 ERA. A.J. Achter owns a 9.00 ERA, and Rule 5 pick J.R. Graham is being hidden in a stretch in which he owns an 11.57 ERA over his last six games. In fact, the last time Graham didn't give up a run in relief was on July 26. Add Perkins struggles in, and Neil Allen's relievers are nothing short of a debacle.
 
Of course, with regression looming and so many indicators suggesting it, the obvious answer is that the Twins would be proactive in dealing with the situation. No, they didn't need to make any trades, but almost assuredly the organization would experiment from within. No, Terry Ryan and the Twins have instead welcomed the dumpster fire.
 
In the outfield, Torii Hunter has ceded way to Shane Robinson. Robinson, a capable fourth outfielder (and nothing more) has started three of the Twins last six games. The career .239 hitter is currently deemed more deserving of innings than the number one prospect in baseball, Byron Buxton (who happens to be slashing .412/.444/.549 at Triple-A Rochester.)
 
There's no point in showing distaste about Joe Mauer getting playing time. He's remained healthy and in the lineup this season, if not ultimately unproductive. What he been afforded though is a top of the lineup spot. Instead of batting 6th or lower, manager Paul Molitor continues to run Mauer out in the three hole on a nightly basis (despite his .260 average).
 
For the Twins, the offense has been less of a problem in terms of regression than the pitching has been. With Phil Hughes now on the DL, Ervin Santana looking like he might as well go there, and Glen Perkins quite possibly needing a trip, there should be plenty of options chomping at the bit.
 
Instead, Jose Berrios is continually looked over at Triple-A, Taylor Rogers isn't considered for the bullpen, and hurlers like Nick Burdi, Zack Jones, and J.T. Chargois aren't given the clearance to give it a try.
Understandably, the Twins could make cases to hold each of those young players back if the circumstances were different. The reality is that while regression has set in heavily, Minnesota has chose to welcome it, rather than to address it and further the future avoidance of the problem.
 
While Burdi and Jones have gone through tough stretches, Rogers hasn't been as sharp, and Berrios may have an innings limit, they will all be counted on at some point in 2016 (a few relatively early). The problem is that the Twins are opting to throw those prospects into the fire, rather than to integrate them in what amounts to a developmental period. Much like the handling of Aaron Hicks, the Twins forego an opportunity to use September, and instead bank on a strong spring training translating to immediate big league success.
 
At it's core, 2015 should still be considered a resounding success for Minnesota no matter how it ends (the Twins would need to lose 33 of their final 40 to reach 90 losses, that isn't happening). What is problematic is the way internal operations are carried out. As 2016 rolls around and the Twins are in a position to win, will they know how to carry that out? Welcoming regression, continuing to bungle DL stints, and lacking the push to cure issues from within, some key matters remain a mystery.
 
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I understand the frustration, and the patience that needs to be shown, but it's the way [it works].
-- Twins GM Terry Ryan on being patient with prospects, 8/14/15
All Minnesota Twins fans wanted on Friday night was Jose Orlando Berrios to make his first major league start. The 21-year-old pitcher was rated the 36th best prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America before this season. He is almost six years younger than his competition in Triple-A, owns a sub-3.5 ERA and his 1.105 WHIP have statheads in a tizzy.
For six innings the vox populi was right: Berrios was cruising through the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders like a stapler through reams of paper. But in the seventh inning he got stuck, giving up six hits and four earned runs without recording an out. “We're trying to win games,” Ryan stated on Wednesday why Duffey got the call over Berrios, “and Berrios is certainly on a good track here, and doing a nice job, but the other kid is probably a little bit more prepared for this arena right now than Berrios.” He and his scouts were right -- it’s as simple as that. At least for that night.
The Twins took a calculated risk by not bringing up Berrios, who was scheduled to start on a night where Trevor May, an erstwhile starter converted to a bullpen arm, made an emergency start and could only throw 50 pitches that night. J.R. Graham, the expected reliever to come in after May, was not at his best against the Cleveland Indians, and the rest of the bullpen had to be used to finish up the game in the final series before an important road trip to New York, Baltimore and Tampa Bay that might determine whether or not Minnesota makes the playoffs this season.
Tyler Duffey was throwing the next night, his second career start, and had just been shelled by a mighty Toronto Blue Jays team that supplemented their roster at the trade deadline by bringing in the likes of Troy Tulowitzki and David Price. If Duffey faltered against an Indians team that was projected to win the World Series this year -- but admittedly have fallen short of that prognostication -- Shane Robinson might be called upon again to break out that trusty knuckleball of his.
Instead, things went rather well for the plucky Twins. Duffey took a no-hitter into the sixth inning on short rest and earned another start in Baltimore. Twins management looked smart, and the cries for Berrios were silenced for the night. “I try to be greedy,” said Molitor after the homestand, admitting that there was a different feeling in the clubhouse after a rough start to the second half of the season. “The Texas game we had a chance, but overall you take 4-2.”
It’s easy to get frustrated with the Twins: They are probably the most conservative organization in the league, and yet when they have taken risks, it hasn’t worked out. Some of it was in their control, and some of it wasn’t. Aaron Hicks wasn’t ready for major league pitching when he was called up. Byron Buxton got hurt. Kyle Gibson was inconsistent. Trevor Plouffe took a while to find a place on the field. Brian Dozier couldn’t cut it as a shortstop. And Glen Perkins struggled as a starter.
And yet Hicks is beginning to establish himself as a leadoff hitter a year after he dropped switch-hitting on a whim. Buxton didn’t choose to get injured, obviously. Gibson got off to a strong start in the first half of the season, and at the very least is a good major league pitcher. Plouffe has made drastic improvements defensively at third base and can hit for power. Dozier made the All-Star team as a second baseman this year; Perkins as a closer. Only Eddie Rosario and Miguel Sano have come into the league and looked like bona fide stars right away, although the same thing can be said of Kennys Vargas, Danny Santana and Oswaldo Arcia, and all three of them are in the minors right now. Player development takes time, and fans don’t want to wait around -- especially after four years of losing.
Hicks appears to have made the biggest turnaround. He was batting .040 as a leadoff hitter when he was first called up and ended his rookie season below the Mendoza Line. A year ago he gave up hitting on the left side; now he’s batting around .300 with power while getting on base, allowing Dozier, Mauer and the core of the Twins lineup to drive him in. He’s the player he was supposed to be when he was selected in the first round of the 2008 draft. “I wouldn't call it exceeding expectations,” Molitor said recently. “There's not a lot of people in the organization that gave up hope on him despite the fact that he came up here and had a couple opportunities and didn't take advantage [of them].”
But Hicks is far from the only Twins player to have a massive turnaround as he entered his mid-20’s. Dozier’s rookie season was considered “disastrous.” Perkins filed a grievance against the team in 2009 after he was demoted to Triple-A coming off an injury; now he has a corner locker in the clubhouse. Plouffe looked like a he was in no-man’s land after it was determined that he would not be a major league shortstop. “This is a difficult game to play, that's the one thing,” says Ryan, speaking of Berrios in particular, but arguably he could be speaking of any young prospect. “When you're 20 or 21 trying to compete against these guys that have been around for five or six years up here and have done well.”
While he would like players to make the team and stick in the majors at age 22 or 23, he knows that 25 or 26 is more realistic, as most of the league’s stars are at their best from 25 to 32. Many fans want to give up on them before that, and to be fair, most organizations do, too. A lot of teams would have given up on Hicks, Dozier or Perkins, and the Twins are better off because they didn’t.
If the Twins have one edge over either the savvier (Rays, A’s) or spendier (Yankees, Dodgers) clubs it is their patience. They are not going to have a massive payroll because they don’t have a massive TV deal like the Yankees, Dodgers or even the Cardinals, and they get pilloried for spending anyways. Ricky Nolasco got hurt and likely won’t return this year. Ervin Santana was suspended for using performance-enhancing drugs. Joe Mauer suffered a concussion, removing him from behind the plate, and now doesn’t possess much power for a first baseman and has become a sub-.300 hitter as teams have begun to shift on him and pitch him more effectively.
Money doesn’t solve problems; good management does, and the Twins know this. By erecting Target Field, largely with taxpayer money, they have essentially became a draft-and-develop team that will keep its prospects -- or at least should. They did that with Mauer, and unfortunately injuries are always a risk, especially with a catcher. Hopefully his move to first base and loss of offensive production does not deter the Twins from locking up the likes of Hicks, Sano and Rosario when the time comes. Torii Hunter never should have been allowed to leave, that much is obvious now. The same mistake can’t be with the next generation of stars -- not in the Target Field era. A draft-and-develop team that doesn’t retain its prospects is a glorified farm team, and St. Paul didn’t build CHS Field with the Twins in mind.
If you look at the 2015 Minnesota Twins, almost every player in the field is homegrown. The pitching staff is a different story, and the team’s inability to produce quality starters over the years has hurt them: It led to over $100 million being spent on outside help, something Ryan said “isn’t exactly the blueprint that we had in mind,” when he signed Ervin Santana in the offseason.
But look at the outfield: Rosario, Hicks and Hunter all came up through the system, and Buxton is expected to take over at center in the near future. The three mainstays in the infield are also Twins draft picks: Plouffe at third, Dozier at second and Mauer at first, and Sano could eventually take over for Plouffe at the hot corner.
The two missing positions are shortstop and catcher, of course, which could have been J.J. Hardy (raised in the Brewers farm system) and Wilson Ramos (another homegrown product). Then again, at the time he was traded it looked like Hardy was injury prone, and there didn’t seem to be much need for Ramos with Mauer behind the plate and Minnesota in win-now mode. On the flip side, patience would have yielded better results in both cases.
Regardless of if the Twins make the postseason this year, they have, in short order, turned from a team focused on developing players to one that has playoffs on their mind. That doesn’t mean they won’t have prospects in their system, but they can’t wait around for them to develop anymore, lest they risk wasting the primes of their star players. Prospects will soon be traded for holes on the major league roster, but let us not forget, had the Twins not been patient up until this point, they would have far more needs than they have right now.
In some ways, it’s a luxury that they didn’t have to call up Berrios before he was ready. One that, if they are doing things right, they should have for years to come.
Cold Omaha is moving to the KQ92 and 93X websites this week because 105 The Ticket has changed formats.
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The Minnesota Twins dropped another tough game last night, and once again it came against the New York Yankees. After a great start to the season, and heading into the All Star Game strong, Minnesota has been a different team since the break. It was these Yankees that may have started the downward spiral (on July 25th at Target Field), but it's the Twins who don't seem to be leaving the rut any time soon.
 
During the first half of the 2015 Major League Baseball season, it was pretty apparent that the Twins were playing outside and past expectations. This team wasn't a contender, and their secondary statistics suggested regression would be coming. For over 80 games though, Minnesota turned up a nose at all of those notions.
 
Through the first half, Brian Dozier looked like a legitimate MVP candidate, Trevor Plouffe was one of the best third basemen in the big leagues, Torii Hunter looked ageless, Glen Perkins was the gold standard, and Joe Mauer seemingly was battling back to being his former self. It was a perfect storm of everything going right, all at the same time.
 
Dozier's first half was indicative of him being arguably the best second basemen in all of baseball. In 88 games, he slashed .256/.328/.513. His on base percentage once again negated the relevance of his average, and his extra base hit numbers powered the way. With 19 home runs, 26 doubles, and 50 runs batted in, the Southern Miss product was on pace to do something special.
 
Dozier's two infield teammates also paced Minnesota in the first half. Mauer's average (.271) wasn't ideal, but his slash (.271/.336/.387) helped the Twins in the middle of the lineup. His six home runs and 42 runs batted in also were a by product of a very strong high leverage batting average. Plouffe swung to a .259/.320/.449 slash line with 11 homers and 46 runs batted in, along with 22 doubles. Minnesota's third basemen was only overshadowed by a guy named Josh Donaldson.
 
Then there was Torii Hunter. 40 years old, at the end of his career, and still getting it done. The Twins favorite slashed .257/.312/.444 across his first 80 games. Hunter added 14 homers, 15 doubles, and 49 runs batted in to help pace the offense. By all early indications, he had plenty left in the tank.
 
Despite the Twins glaring issues in the bullpen, there was Glen Perkins. A failed starter, but two-time All Star closer, now looked like one of the best in the game. He was 28-28 in save opportunities, owned a 1.21 ERA, and was allowing opposing hitters to bat just .188/.217/.246 off of him. Dazzling probably doesn't do Perkins first half justice.
As the calendar turned over to the second half however, it all came crashing down.
 
Since the break, Dozier has slashed .220/.286/.431, effectively making his poor average a detriment. His six home runs have netted just 11 runs batted in, and he's doubled only five times in 27 games. Mauer has batted just .250/.316/.356 with two homers and nine RBI while Plouffe has watched a nice run of late bring up a paltry .225/.262/.500 slash line since the break. Without his seven home runs and 19 RBI, Plouffe's 26 game post All Star stretch would look even worse.
 
Then, there's the fact that Torii's age has begun to show. He hasn't been a solid defensive player at any point for the Twins in 2015, but that was expected. His .172/.215/.322 slash with just four home runs and 11 RBI since the break would warrant a demotion for most younger players. To say he's gone in the tank is putting it nicely.
 
As the bullpen has seemed to survive on shaky ground in the second half, it's been Perkins who has been arguably the worst. Despite the dazzling first half, he owns an 8.10 ERA in 10.0 post break innings. He's picked up only three saves, blown two, and lost three times. Opposing hitters are batting .383/.420/.702 off of him, and he's surrendered four home runs.
 
When looking at the middle of the Twins lineup, and the heart of what the team needs to compete, it's been a blow up in every sense. Dozier, Plouffe, and Hunter have turned into home run or bust types, while Mauer has been even more of a shell of what once was. Adding in the fact that Perkins is no longer a guaranteed save only complicates the issue.
 
As things stand, there is a rainbow through the storm that the Twins veterans have created. Miguel Sano (.292), Eddie Rosario (.279), and Aaron Hicks (.276) are pacing the Twins lineup. The youth movement has started, and 2016 was always seen as the opening of an upcoming window. While it's been the veterans failure to remain consistent that has cause the Twins biggest regression, it has been the youth's ability to succeed that has kept Minnesota relevant.
 
For months leading up to the All Star Game, regression was a word Twins fans wanted to stop hearing about. The fact now is that the numbers have began to even out, and because they were so steeply skewed in Minnesota's favor, they are now going the opposite way equally as steep.
 
The downturn has highlighted why the Twins were right to balk at making any big moves at the deadline. Playing well above their heads, remaining in contention for a wild card spot was unlikely. What has happened though is positive growth for 2016, a season in which the Twins should begin to "go for it." Curbing the post "break" downturn is something the Twins need to figure out however, and having the regression hit across the board at the same time is something that has to be avoided.
 
Paul Molitor has done an incredible job in his first year as the Twins skipper, but if he wants to use this season's success as a kickstart for the years to come, focusing on the second half slide is priority number one. Mauer and Hunter are more done than they aren't, but Plouffe, Dozier, and Perkins are cornerstones for this organization, and getting 162 games worth of productivity is part of taking the next step.
 
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The calendar has flipped to August, the Minnesota Twins are now 51-51 just three games above .500, and the problems are mounting. Every indication suggests that the Twins did absolutely the right thing at the trade deadline. As they slip out of sole possession of a wild card spot, Terry Ryan has a new period of evaluation coming.
For much of the season, the Twins were a team playing well above water. With an extremely impressive home record, while staving off regression, Minnesota distanced themselves from the pack. As it generally does, baseball has begun to shift back towards a statistical normalcy and the Twins have felt the squeeze.
 
Since the All Star Break, Minnesota is just 5-11. In those 16 games, the Twins offense has scored an average of 3.4 runs per game while surrendering 5.2 runs per game. Their bullpen has all but imploded, most obviously on the back end (Glen Perkins owns an 11.12 ERA since the break). The Twins offense has gone in the tank, and the winning has hit the skids. In their last three losses, Minnesota has scored just one run in each contest.
To say this was predictable is probably not unfair. Minnesota has a plethora of pitchers with inflated FIP (fielding independent pitching) marks and strong ERA's (in fact, acquired reliever Kevin Jepsen is among them). They have also seen a boost in the offense from unlikely sources such as Aaron Hicks (who has been incredibly hot), Eddie Rosario (who's been consistent), and Miguel Sano (who surprisingly has hit for average). At the root of the struggles though is that the Twins have watched it all come crashing down at the same time.
 
Blaine Boyer (3.02 ERA 4.28 FIP, still some regression to come) and Casey Fien (4.19 ERA 4.14 FIP) have started to even out, J.R. Graham has been knocked around (9.00 ERA in his last 8.0 IP), and we already touched on Perkins struggles. Joe Mauer (.255/.317/.327), Torii Hunter (.204/.246/.370), and Brian Dozier (.217/.299/.450) have all slumped since the break. Starting pitching hasn't been great, and Tommy Milone (7.98 ERA in 142. IP since ASG) is now headed to the DL.
Terry Ryan is watching as each of the potential problem areas for the Twins rears it's head at once. In that, he can find solace in knowing he absolutely did the right thing at the trade deadline. Fixing the bullpen, offense, and need positions all at once without jumping the gun wasn't a realistic possibility. In a difficult test of patience, that is now paying dividends.
 
Staying put for the most part (aside from dealing for Jepsen who provides team control going forward), allows the Twins to continue along a realistic path. Despite being in position to grab a Wild Card spot, the heat of the summer was sure to sort things out. Regardless of the big moves by the Blue Jays (both David Price and Troy Tulowitzki count as just that), the Twins were going to have to continue to defy their own odds. In not sacrificing the blueprint that has been laid out, the next few years remain incredibly bright for the Twins.
As the 2015 Major League Baseball season rolls on, the Twins still have plenty to gain. Nowhere near out of the playoff race, call ups and seasoning can be provided to young and integral players in the midst of meaningful games. With Tyler Duffey paving the way and Jose Berrios likely soon to follow, Minnesota affords young arms a cup of coffee in the middle of real action. Miguel Sano, Hicks, Rosario, and even Byron Buxton can begin to settle into the highest level while competing for something on a nightly basis. In the end, it's the best outcome for everyone.
Going forward, the Twins already had plenty of reason to be realistic playoff contenders immediately in 2016 and onward. Thanks to the decision to hold onto the farm, the Twins should take plenty of valuable lessons and developmental instances away from 2015 even if they don't end up in the playoffs. As 2016 rolls around, they should enter as one of the two best teams in the Central, and the final two months of 2015 baseball will serve as the launching pad for that growth.
 
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July is coming to an end, and that means that Major League Baseball is being sent into a frenzy with the non-waiver trade deadline fast approaching. For the Twins, this is extra special, because for the first time in four years, they are actually in a position to participate. However, in light of recent events around the AL Central, they absolutely must stay the course and exercise patience.
 
Over the weekend, the Kansas City Royals made the biggest move of the season. In sending a package highlighted by 2014 first round pick Brandon Finnegan, Kansas City added an ace to their staff in the form of Johnny Cueto. Having to watch struggles from the likes of Yordano Ventura, rely on Chris Young, and see Jason Vargas go down with a torn UCL, the Royals needed to make a move. In doing so, they went out and got the best pitcher available, while positioning themselves for a deep playoff run.
 
Despite being in the AL Central, and direct competition for the Twins, the Royals move to add Cueto couldn't be further removed from relevance in Minnesota. Prior to the weekend starting, Minnesota was still looking up at the boys in blue, trailing them in the division. Since the Twins relinquished the top of the AL Central early on in the summer, the Royals have held down the spot and separated from the competition.
 
There's little doubt that Cueto doesn't make the Royals a better team. He owns a 2.62 ERA and a career low 3.13 FIP. He is sitting down batters at an 8.3 K/9 clip while walking on average just 2 batters per nine innings. All of this was done with an outfield defense ranking 15th in the big leagues in DRS (defensive runs saved). Of course he makes the Royals better, but that also isn't the Twins concern.
 
Just as was the case before Kansas City dealt for the Reds case, the Twins weren't looking up. At this point in the season, if Minnesota is looking to capitalize on their impressive record, they will do so by fending off what's behind them. Currently with a hold on the second Wild Card spot, the Twins must stay the course.
 
Despite having dropped two of three to the Yankees this weekend, the AL East has given the Twins the least amount of problems this season. Leading the Blue Jays by 3 games, Baltimore by 3.5, and the Rays by 4, Minnesota is in a good place. the trade deadline should still be a place where the Twins need to buy, but their course of action should remain unchanged.
 
Whether or not Minnesota should go out and upgrade the catcher or shortstop position is something that can be debated, but relief arms are something the Twins still need to covet. Watching Steve Cishek go to the Cardinals for a price the Twins could have definitely paid, means they are more intrigued elsewhere. It's hard to imagine a scenario in which at least one arm doesn't come to Minnesota, but the big splashes aren't where the Twins need to focus.
 
This club has, and continues to, outperform expectations in 2015. Realizing the pieces to continue competing are they, and adding a couple more that help to solidify the Wild Card positioning should be the goal. Playoff baseball is a different beast, and it's anyone's guess as to what happens when it begins. Minnesota needs to add the pieces to stay in front of the race, and let what happens when they get there take place.
Terry Ryan has built a winner for years to come with the current organizational construction, and blowing that up to keep pace with those out of reach isn't going to do you any favors. Forget the Royals, light your own path, get some bullpen help, and grab the first playoff berth since 2010.
 
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The Minnesota Twins came into 2015 with expectations of a .500 season seeming doable, even despite the national types tabbing them for a last place finish in the AL Central. Now in the midst of a playoff race, the Twins find themselves shopping at the trade deadline. With Danny Santana playing anything but a capable shortstop, and internal options proving thing, Minnesota is kicking the tires on Troy Tulowitzki.
It really isn't at all like the Twins to make deadline deals, and even more so for them to go after such high profile players. With Tulo wanting out of Colorado though, and the Twins needing to fill the void that Cristian Guzman left at short so many years ago, the fit is at least sensible on the surface.
 
From there, things go downhill, and fast. I may be one of the biggest fans of Tulowitzki the player, but getting him to the Twins looks disastrous on multiple fronts. First and foremost, the acquisition cost. Colorado apparently is interested in Kyle Gibson.
 
A 27 year old with four years of team control left, and not arbitration eligible until 2017, Gibson has plenty to offer as a trade chip. He's been one of the Twins best starters (if not the best) and his 3.19 ERA and 6.4 K/9 are nice steps forward in his development. The Rockies see an ideal fit in Gibson as he's a sinkerballer that is inducing a career high 55% ground ball rate. Allowing just 27% of pitches to be hit hard, Gibson would see success in the otherwise difficult to handle Coors Field.
As good as Gibson has been and projects to continue to be, he alone wouldn't be enough for the Rockies either. For a talent like Tulowitzki, Colorado would be seeking multiple top tier prospects as well. With Minnesota surprisingly competing ahead of its window, fleecing the farm doesn't seem intelligent.
 
The next hurdle is what you can expect from Tulowitzki. He has played an average of 88 games the last three years and is now on the wrong side of 30. Despite being a perennial All-Star and consistent MVP candidate, expecting him to stay healthy is far from the norm. Dealing for a piece with the intention of fixing a problem area in the organization only to have that player sit on the DL isn't going to do anything for Minnesota.
Then there's the change of location. In his career, Tulo's home and away splits are telling. He's a .322/.395/.560 hitter at Coors Field, while slashing just .277/.349/.469 on the road. Factor in that Target Field is probably the furthest thing from the hitter friendly Coors Field, and the drop in production could be substantial. Balls simply don't fly out of downtown Minneapolis like they do in the Mile High City, and that isn't going to help a guy who hasn't gotten back to 30 home runs since 2011.
 
Rounding out the laundry list of negatives is the stack of cash the Rockies superstar still has coming to him. Colorado would almost assuredly need to throw in money in return for the prospects they covet in return. Tulowitzki is owed $20 million a year through 2019, before his salary drops to $14 million as a 35 year old in 2020. He also carries a $15 million team option for his 2021 season.
That kind of cash comes in under the $23 million the Twins currently pay Joe Mauer (who has actually been healthy more than Tulowitzki). Twins fans have consistently bashed Mauer's production relative to his compensation, and while Tulowitzki should no doubt outperform the transplanted catcher, it's anyone's guess as to how many games he contributes each year.
You'd probably be hard pressed to find someone that likes Troy Tulowitzki the baseball player than I do, but for the Twins, the answer has to be no. Going forward with the organization trending back towards winning and competition, adding what could end up being a very expensive corner outfielder long term (or worse), Minnesota would taking a significant (and potentially foolish) risk. Colorado is going to move Tulowitzki before that contract is up, but it doesn't need to be now, and it doesn't need to be the Twins.
 
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There have been dozens of threads on TD over the last 10 days about whether the twins should be buyers or sellers. Whether they should make a trade to attempt a push towards October this year, or maintain the long-term trajectory and hold to the rebuilding strategy the FO seems to be holding to. My question and thought is, is there a possibility we could do both? I've seen people calling for catching help, and I've seen people calling for bullpen help. Those seem to be the two main positions of need. I would add that we need DH and shortstop upgrades as well. My question is, how can the twins attempt to be relevant this year, while not sacrificing the hopes of building a long-term competitive team?
 
I will attempt to answer my own question with as few words as possible...which doesn't come easily to me. I think the first step IMO is to call up Sano, Polanco and a combination of one or two of the following relief arms that the organization deems to be the most ready. Achter, Oliveros, Meyer or Burdi. My reasoning is Sano may not bat to his future potential this year, but he is advanced enough that its not going to hurt him, and he will be significantly better than what we are getting currently out of the DH position, even if he can only manage to bat .250/.300/.475 with 15 home runs over the rest of the year. My thought is DH him 3-4 days a week, then give Mauer off a day or two a week, and slide Plouffe to first so that Sano can continue to get reps at third to see if he can stick there. Play Polanco at short. His bat is advanced enough that he deserves a shot, and will upgrade the position offensively from Escobar/Nunez. Don't get me wrong, I like Escobar and think he's a great utility infielder, but would prefer Polancos bat. I think he at least deserves a shot to prove whether or not he should stay at short, and why not let him prove that in Minnesota, where the fans can watch him hit.
 
As far as the bullpen help goes, sub one or two of those previously mentioned guys out for Duensing for sure and then maybe another for one of the other rarely used relievers.
 
I still have not addressed the catcher issue, and don't know realistically if that can/will be addressed this season. However, by inserting Sano and Polanco into the lineup you can then bat Suzuki/Hermann in the number 8 or 9 spot and they will be much less of a liability than they are batting 5th or 6th.
 
Again, I don't think anyone expects the twins to win the world series this year. While that would be nice, its just not going to happen short of a couple dozen miracles. However, I don't think that its out of the realm of possibility for the twins to play .500 ball the rest of the way and end up with 85 wins and a shot at a hard-fought division title, or maybe within reach of a wild-card spot. If nothing else, they would be relevant and fans would stay interested. They don't need jaw-dropping changes, just slight improvements, and by getting a little more production offensively from the DH and short stop and removing the bullpen liabilities while adding some guys in there that can actually be of some help, I think we would make ourselves better this year, while not jeopardizing, and in fact continuing to develop talent for the years to come.

The Twins didn't score many runs in Boston until they faced a knuckleballer and took advantage of leaky Boston defense. They had one good inning in two games against the Brewers. They still have a good number of runs scored and a positive run differential. They sit in first place by one game with the second-place Royals due in town Monday.
 
In the very successful month of May, the Twins were led by the four guys who usually hit in the first four spots in the order. After a hot first half of the month, Hunter has leveled off and still carries good numbers. Mauer slumped much of the month, but managed to drive in an inordinate amount of runs by being very successful with runners on base, he is showing signs of warming up, but has a long way to reach his career norms. Plouffe is currently in a deep slump after being a consistent run producer and power threat for the first two months. Finally, Dozier remains hot, raising his average above .260 while on an extra-base hit rampage. The club needs help from someone beside those four guys.
 
Twins Daily has had plenty of people complaining about the position players on the team. Shane Robinson, Eduardo Nuñez, Danny Santana, and Chris Herrmann all have detractors who think they shouldn't be on the 25-man roster. Of course, there remain 13 pitchers, leaving one less bench player. Oswaldo Arcia, Kennys Vargas and Josmil Pinto have all played for the Twins and are at Rochester now waiting to be recalled.
 
The pitching staff also has suspects among their ranks, probably all in the bullpen. Brian Duensing's numbers are terrible, Tim Stauffer has failed to impress, and Aaron Thompson has regressed hard. With Michael Tonkin, AJ Achter and Lester Oliveros laboring in Rochester, it would seem to make sense to part company with the soft tossing older veterans.
 
Since the club is in first place, perhaps the pressure isn't as great to make a move. However, they probably need to make a move or two before the current lull becomes a full-blown slump. If I were sitting in the GM's chair, I would send Danny Santana to Rochester and replace him with Vargas. Santana seems to have lost confidence and a trip to Rochester might restore that confidence. Vargas' numbers in AAA have been good (SSS) and the club desperately needs a threat (preferably LH) to hit behind Plouffe. If the bullpen is settled after the next turn of starters, perhaps they can reduce the bullpen. The obvious candidates to be let go would be Duensing and Stauffer, but it wouldn't surprise me if Aaron Thompson is optioned instead. Perhaps then it would be time for Arcia to return and try his luck in the outfield.
 
It is less than one month from Ervin Santana getting back and pitching with the Twins. Another pitching decision would have to be made at that time. As long as they are in the hunt, development as a major leaguer takes second place to winning games. It will be interesting to see what happens with calendars turning from spring to fall.

Today marks the Minnesota Twins home opener. A game that represents the first sellout of Target Field in quite some time, may be more a letdown than originally expected. With no Ervin Santana, and a team that owns a 1-5 record on the season, expectations have already plummeted. In the early going however, the Twins have seen less innovation and more of the same from Paul Molitor, and it hasn't been a good thing.
 
When hired, Molitor was regarded as an elite baseball mind, and someone that embraced what the game had transitioned into. While not a full blown sabermetrics guy, he appeared to be someone that would be up to date on any new way to win. Hired from within, Molitor seemed to buck the trend of the Terry Ryan cloth and bring a fresh bit of insight to the bench. Thus far, the Twins have seen anything but, and their record struggles to deter from more of the same as well.
 
Down in Fort Myers, Molitor mentioned being open to the idea of batting Joe Mauer (a high on base percentage hitter) second, while moving Brian Dozier (a power guy) into the third spot. This happened once during spring training, and has yet to take shape since. With Torii Hunter batting in the cleanup spot, the Twins have struggled to get much going from the bulk of their order, and the run production hasn't been there.
 
Over the weekend, the Twins decided to place starting pitcher Ricky Nolasco on the disabled list. The move cleared up a spot on the active roster. It was announced that Trevor May would be called up to pitch the home opener on Monday, but as a starter, he didn't need to be added back until the end of the series with the White Sox. Instead of calling up a bullpen arm that could have helped the club in Chicago, the Twins added Trevor May immediately on Saturday. Instead of having a fresh bullpen arm (because no doubt the pen had been taxed in Detroit with starters only going just over 12 innings in three games) Minnesota had May on the bench sitting in a windbreaker.
 
On top of that move, Eduardo Escobar headed to Minnesota and missed a game due to the birth of his child. The Twins failed to call up a bench bat in his place for the day, and Jordan Schafer was forced to look overmatched against David Robertson to end the game on Saturday (while Josmil Pinto hit a 2 run walk-off home run for Rochester).
 
Really what it all adds up to is just a curious set of circumstances. While the Twins touted a changing of the guard for much of the offseason, Molitor has more often than not deferred. Whether Ron Gardenhire or Molitor is on the bench, it would seem hard to differentiate at this point. It's probably still to early to be grabbing pitchforks, but there's no doubt that a change of thinking needs to be implemented. For the Twins to accomplish heights they have not in recent years, a shift in the thought process needs to take place. It may start above Molitor at the Terry Ryan level, but there's no doubt on field execution needs some fine tuning.
 
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The 2015 Major League Baseball season is just one day old. Unfortunately, the Minnesota Twins find themselves with only a tally in the loss column to this point. More unfortunately is that observations from one game have cause knuckle-dragging fans to already deem the 2015 season a failure. Whether because of anger that four years of losing causes, or the disappointment that still looming prospects has provided, a vast contingent isn't pleased. While those aren't viable reasons for angst at this point (and frankly lack even a decent sense of comprehension), the Twins safe decision making was on display yesterday, and should be plenty scrutinized in the immediate future.
 
Against the Tigers, the Twins sent out what can be considered their top lineup. With Phil Hughes on the mound, at no other point (outside of replication) will the Twins 25 man roster be better represented than it was yesterday. Forget the fact that they were facing Cy Young level pitching in the form of David Price, there's no denying we might have seen and heard the first glimpses of concern.
 
Starting in centerfield yesterday was Jordan Schafer. A protoypical fourth outfielder, generally utilized for his speed, the Twins have given the offed Atlanta Brave the keys to the outfield. In turn, on at least two occasions, defensive missplays cost the Twins. Allowing a run while stumbling late in the game, the Twins saw the deficit increase further than it should have due to their own doing. As a secondary option, manager Paul Molitor chose to bring journeyman Shane Robinson north along with Schafer. Employing a two man (remember it's not a platoon) centerfield, the Twins have gone with options that are definitely not starters, and potential questionable roster inclusions.
 
When the bullpen entered the game yesterday, it was by way of Double-A Rule 5 Draft Pick, J.R. Graham. The hard thrower immediately worked himself into trouble, and then showed the resolve to get himself out of it unscathed. While it worked out in the team's favor this time, there's no doubt that Graham's shaky first inning doesn't bode well for the future. Considering that Molitor has said he plans to use some combination of Graham and Duensing in a 7th inning role, disaster could be looming for Minnesota.
 
Despite not factoring into the action yesterday, Mike Pelfrey was also removed from his bullpen role in favor of Aaron Thompson. Following the loss of suspended starter Ervin Santana, Pelfrey was added back into the rotation. Despite a less than promising track record, the Twins decided to go with what was comfortable, rather than what may push them forward.
 
That point gets us to the elephant the Twins see sitting at the end of their bench. Each and every roster move made this season has signified a stagnant style of thinking. Knowing this team isn't necessarily built to compete (despite what Terry Ryan has stated publicly), the ceiling has been purposely lowered from within. With options in house that could potentially stretch the ceiling, push the organization forward, and enhance development as a whole, the Twins have turned an opposite direction.
 
It's fair to suggest that promotion of youth for the sake of doing so doesn't make sense. There is no reason to sacrifice potential ability because of immediate desire, but what the Twins have put in place leans towards the other end of the spectrum. Names like Schafer, Robinson, Nunez, Pelfrey, and well really the whole bullpen sans Glen Perkins, suggest a lack of faith in organizational advancement. Imagine if the Twins had instead included Hicks, Rosario, May, Meyer, or Tonkin? What if they went out and replaced their bench bat with a name like Dayan Viciedo? What if they increased their own ceiling by allowing for the floor to be lowered because the upside was substantially greater?
 
The premise is simple, knowing you aren't built to be amongst the elite, transitioning towards a future gain strategy would seem to make a lot of sense. While Pelfrey or Schafer may not make the mistakes a Meyer or Rosario will, they also represent a muted level of talent. Outside of finishing first, the positioning is relatively irrelevant, and the Twins have sent out a roster that fails to maximize upon this concept.
 
At the end of the day, most of the "safe" options for the Twins are immediately replaceable. When the bullpen falls, or Pelfrey blows up, or the outfield crumbles, the Twins can turn over the keys. The question becomes, why not do some of that from the beginning in hopes of advancement, rather than after issues in response to failure?
 
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The headline here is a reference--if you do not know somehow--to a line from The Big Lebowski. It's the scene in the car where Walter has brought "the ringer" ("the whites") and The Dude loses it on him. The Dude is a very chill guy who smokes pot, listens to CCR, and bowls. But in this scene he yells (editing profanity) "You (screwed) it up! You (screwed) it up!" Walter responds with the quote in the headline.
 
Well it's that time of year when the Twins opening day roster becomes finalized and many, including myself, are screaming what The Dude was screaming in the car. I mean it all seems ridiculous. Maybe not each individual move taken separately, but when looking at the totality--Milone, Pelfrey, Boyer, and Robinson as choices over May, Meyer, Tonkin/Oliveros/Achter, and Hicks/Rosario, on top of the additions of Hunter and Stauffer--it looks like a big roster mistake based on some strange notion of trying to compete with aging guys instead of rebuilding with younger guys.
 
That's all true. I don't think the truth is on the Twins side here. This seems like a bizarre way to approach the season, especially since this doesn't mean merely having the young guys "earn" a promotion to the Twins . . . they are now forced to compete with one another down in AAA and even AA in some cases. It would seem like a rebuilding team promotes the young guys to get a sense of who is going to be worthy of keeping in 2016 and beyond. I cannot imagine any of those six--Milone, Pelfrey, Boyer, Robinson, Hunter, and Stauffer--being on the team in 2016.
 
But screaming about this isn't going to do any good and it isn't good for oneself. It is indeed being very un-dude. Here's a breakdown:
 
A. It's baseball. Baseball isn't like bowling . . . but watching baseball is like bowling in that you do it for fun and you drink beer while doing it.
 
B. There might be value in finding even one of those six guys who puts up a legitimate year that adds wins to the team this year. Stauffer and Hunter are the best bets there. ST stats mean very little. Stauffer is a good reliever.
 
C. Maybe this new focus on the changeup will improve the staff, including Boyer.
 
D. The young guys can all be together and work together and help each other out that way. Rochester suddenly has Rosario, Hicks, and Danny Ortiz in the OF. May and Meyer will be leading the rotation with the likes of Wheeler, Rogers, and maybe Duffey. Tonkin, Oliveros, and Achter are going to be in the bullpen with O'Rourke, Darnell (if I were Darnell, I would advocate for a full-time bullpen role), Hamburger, and Pressly. Rochester actually should be full of prospects, which is rare. It should be good though.
 
E. Nothing is really stopping a mass movement upward. This isn't Gardenhire's team, so we don't really know what to expect. If the oldsters aren't getting the job done, then I do think Molitor will replace them. And this can include a Schafer-Robinson for Hicks-Rosario swap. First, Rosario is going to get some time at second base in Rochester, and thus he still has that going for the Twins as another backup for Dozier. Second, Hunter is going to need days off, as will Mauer, and younger guys like Arcia and Vargas. There are innings and at bats there. Also, with each passing day the Twins are paying Mike Pelfrey less and less. Milone and Stauffer aren't making all that much, and Boyer is making very little. They are all replaceable and will be replaced with one wave from AAA and then another from AA.
 
F. We don't know what is going to happen, so let's just enjoy it. There are still a number of things to be excited about. First, a fully recovered Joe Mauer. Second, Santana and Vargas soph seasons. Third, Oswaldo Arcia is going to go ape this year. I guarantee that. Fourth, Eduardo Escobar is still going to get plenty of at bats and be a doubles machine. Finally, a new manager and pitching coach. This is the most important thing. Those old, ridiculous days are gone.
 
G. Being un-Dude is a terrible way to be.
 
It's understandable that we are "not into the whole levity thing" right now. We have ideas about what should be done and the Twins make mistakes. But it is clear that this is still the beginning of baseball season and that is something to be quite pleased about. I do think that these problems are going to work themselves out. The September roster should be pretty sick. There will be trades made that will help support a minor league system that hopefully is seeing its last top 10 overall pick this year.
 
There are still plenty of good things occurring outside of the decisions regarding players 21-25 on the roster.

Spring training is meaningful. Jobs are won and lost as a result. They should be.
 
Statistics from spring training exhibition games have no meaning. They should not be kept, reported or used in support of roster making decisions. I hope the Twins don't keep them or use them. Not only is the data in a sample too small to be meaningful but the level of competition varies.
 
It is critical the Twins get the roster right though. They need to rely on the skill of the coaching staff and other staff in spring training to get the best 25. They need to be able to assess whether Milone, Pelfrey and Nolasco are healthy and throwing the ball like they did when they were more successful. Suzuki can help assess Milone also. They have to make the correct assessment on these three and have plenty of time and plenty of eyes to get it right. They need to assess whether Hicks has fundamentally changed his approach and possibly swing. They need to assess whether Schafer's numbers the last two months were result of a fundamental change or simply variation due to sample.
 
Last year's staff should have seen a fundamental change in Kubel's bat speed. They should have seen Bartlett's inability to play outfield. They should have seen the need for Pinto to catch every day in the minors. They should have seen enough from Worley to retain him in AAA once he cleared waivers and was off the 40.
 
The Twins can't afford to miss again this year. They need the skill to correctly assess the pitching and bring the best 12 north. They need to be right on Hicks and Pinto and put them in a role where they will best help the team win games.
 
Spring training is critical to the Twins this year. Let's just hope they ignore the numbers and rely on their eyes. Let's hope the new Twins staff is more skilled than last year's staff.
 
Spring training is meaningful. Spring training stats are not. Let's not use them.

At the All-Star break, the Twins were in decent shape, just 6 games under .500 and on pace to finish with a win total in the mid-70s that would have demonstrated clear progress in their rebuilding efforts. But they faltered out of the gate in the 2nd half, dropping 9 of 13 to finish July (the first 10 of which were at home). Now 11 under .500 and 11 games out of 1st place, it was time to sell the veterans and turn to youth. Out with Kendrys Morales, Josh Willingham, Kevin Correia and Matt Guerrier, in with Kennys Vargas, Jordan Schafer, Trevor May, and Ryan Pressly.
 
The newly reconstituted roster quickly descended into the most wretched stretch of the season, going 14-27 from the beginning of August through mid-September, outraging the fanbase, and promptly costing Gardy his job at season’s end. But I’m OK with beginning 2015 with about 80% of the players who were on the field for those last 2 months, and you should be, too! Here’s why:
 
The Offense was better
 
After a surprisingly high-scoring April (fueled by a sky-high OBP) the pendulum swung the other way in May. The average of those 2 months corresponded pretty well with the .690-ish team OPS the Twins put up in June & July. Through the first 2/3 of the season, the offense averaged a tick over 4 R/G. But in the final 55 games, they exploded for 280 R, increasing the per-game average by over a run. Over a full season, 90% of that scoring rate would have produced the #4 offense in baseball. And 90% of the extremely good BABIP the Twins put up over those final 2 months would be more or less the league average.
 
There will certainly be regression from some players (most notable Santana). But there were several positions that provided below average production in the final months, too. Not only did Suzuki’s All-Star 1st half not carry over, but his second half results were beneath his modest career averages. Mauer, though much better than he was in the spring, was still well short of his career average OPS of .860 or so. Dozier continued to get on base, but didn’t sustain the HR and SB pace he established over the early part of the season. (That the baserunners accumulated nearly as many SB (49) in 68 2nd half games as they did in 94 1st half games (50) with little contribution from Dozier is an indication of how much more baserunning can be a weapon for the Twins next year.)
 
All told, when I look at the rates the hitters put up in August & September, I’d expect a lot less (upwards of .100 OPS) from Santana, a bit less from Plouffe, Schafer, & Escobar, about the same from Arcia & Vargas, a bit more from Dozier & Hicks, and a quite a bit more (upwards of .050 OPS) from Mauer & the catchers (especially with Pinto getting the PAs that were going to Fryer). A repeat of 2014’s 714 RS seems like a pretty safe floor for this offense.
 
The Starting Pitching was better
 
Seriously:
 
1st Half: 5.8 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 8.7% HR/FB, .319 BABIP, 4.86 ERA, 4.21 xFIP
2nd Half: 7.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 9.8% HR/FB, .333 BABIP, 5.35 ERA, 3.89 xFIP
 
And the prospects for 2015 are even better than that. 25 rather horrendous 2nd half starts were made by pitchers who will not be starting games for the Twins next year: Kevin Correia (4 GS, 4.79 xFIP), Anthony Swarzak (4, 4.86), Yohan Pino (6, 4.02 – he deserved better), Kris Johnson (1, 4.57), Logan Darnell (4, 3.38 – but so many HRs), weirdly awful Tommy Milone (5, 5.27) and MLB debut Trevor May (1, 16.10(!)). It’s possible that Darnell could see some spot starts next year, though I’d expect him to be well down the depth chart. Whatever was going on with Milone in August, it was unprecedented in nearly 80 prior career GS. Should he be asked to start in 2015 I’d expect to see that guy (4.22 xFIP) rather than the doppelganger who made such a poor 1st impression in MN.
 
The Twins quietly finished the season with an effective front 4: Phil Hughes (13, 3.20), Kyle Gibson (13, 3.76), Ricky Nolasco (9, 3.71) and not-making-his-MLB-debut May (8, 3.77). Each of those xFIPs was league average or better, and Hughes can afford a ton of regression in his walk rate before he would fall below that standard. Gibson’s growth should be expected of a high-pedigree prospect with 25+ career GS under his belt, and post-DL Nolasco was essentially the guy they signed to the biggest FA contract in team history.
 
That the starters’ ERA for the most part drastically overshot their xFIP is the result of a complex cocktail whose ingredients include bad luck on balls in play, bad defense, bad pitching with men on base, and bad work from a bullpen that failed to strand inherited runners. Of those factors, the pitching with men on is the only thing they can really control, and should be a matter of focus for them as they prepare for next season.
 
The Bullpen sucked!
 
As I alluded to above, the bullpen didn’t do the starters any favors. They couldn’t strand runners, couldn’t protect leads, couldn’t consistently get the outs they were brought in to get. They were last in the Majors in 2nd half K/9 by a large margin, and as a group were below replacement level. I believe a league average relief squad would have netted the Twins at least 5 additional wins in 2014, and lessened a lot of the hysteria related to 4 straight 90+ loss seasons.
 
So why am I OK with that performance? Because it’s a failure that is very unlikely to be repeated. Relievers are the most fungible asset in baseball, as demonstrated by the Twins scooping up Casey Fien and Jared Burton off the scrap heap before the 2012 season. Even elite FA relievers with extensive track records cost much less per season and demand shorter-term contracts than starters and position players. The Twins have already declined Burton’s services for 2015, and I expect them to pass on Brian Duensing and Anthony Swarzak, too. That trio combined to allow 21 inherited runners to score just in the awful ¼ season from August 1st to mid-September. Replacing them with average or better relievers will make a huge difference.
 
Some of those replacements might already be under team control. AAA Rochester’s bullpen was excellent all season. Michael Tonkin and Aaron Thompson were pretty effective in their September call-ups, and Lester Oliveros completed the season with 5 straight scoreless appearances totaling 5.2 IP, 5 K, 1 H and 1 BB. And, close behind them, the upper minors are loaded with high-velocity arms that could find their way onto the team by the 2nd half of 2015: Nick Burdi, Zach Jones, Jake Reed… The days of the Twins bringing up the rear in bullpen K% may already be behind us.
 
Better Luck Next Year
 
The Twins allowed a very poor BABIP for the 2nd consecutive year in 2014, and it will take some improvements to the defense (especially the OF) to get that back into the average range. But that OF defense was similarly bad in both 2013 & 2014, and yet the BABIP was a few points worse last year. All of the negative difference came in the 2nd half, when the pitchers suffered a .328 BABIP despite having 2 of Schafer, Santana and Hicks in the OF most of the time. Certainly, there was some very bad pitching after the All-Star break. There was also a lot of OK to good pitching with some very bad luck.
 
Look back through some of the game logs in which the Twins allowed huge crooked numbers. In many cases those innings were prolonged by one or more IF or bunt hits. I can never fault a pitcher for giving up a hit because he induced a batter to hit a GB too slowly, or in the perfect spot. It’s maddening, but those results are fairly random, and the wheel tends to swing back the other way as time goes on. The group we saw in August & September, given average luck on their balls in play, might have erased their 17 run deficit and finished with an even or better run differential over those 2 months.
 
And there’s one other wild swing of luck we need to consider – when the runs were scored. Over the 1st 4 months of the season, the Twins’ record corresponded perfectly with their Pythagorean record – the estimated winning % derived from the total scores of their games. The total scores they produced after the trade deadline should have been good for a 26-29 record, but instead came up well short at 22-33. Isolate it further by separating the final 14 games of the season and you find that the Twins’ entire shortfall in expected wins occurred within that disastrous 41-game stretch from August 1st-September 13th.
 
The most obvious place this shows up is in games decided by 1 run. Within this late-summer stretch, the Twins were 1-8 in 1-run games. In the other ¾ of the season, they were 20-16. Had they continued to win those closest games at the same rate as they had been doing, they would have gone 5-4 in those 9 games. There’s your 4 extra wins. Losing very close games is not an unexpected byproduct of having everybody in the bullpen fail at the same time.
 
Focus on the Finish
 
A lot of people had understandably stopped paying attention to the Twins by mid-September, when things finally stabilized. The offense continued to score about 5 R/G. The pitching - excepting 13 dreadful spot start IP from Swarzak – put up a 3.70 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Half of those 14 games came against a very productive Tigers lineup that was fighting for playoff position.
 
We saw that some of these guys can be pretty good. May had 2 quality starts and a 20/3 K/BB ratio. Nolasco also went 2/3 in quality starts with a 16/4 K/BB ratio. Vargas broke out of his early-September slump by re-adding walks to his game – 8 BB in the final week, where he’d had just 4 in the previous 7! Dozier rediscovered his power, Mauer got his average back over .300.
 
For me, much of the fans’ sour impression of the Twins comes from the terrible results of that awful late-summer run. There was plenty of bad baseball there, to be sure. There was also a lot of absurdly bad luck, and several performances that are unlikely to be repeated – whether because of changing personnel, better health, or the maturation of young players. When you think about what the Twins need to do to improve in 2015, remember those caveats, and build from the final days of September instead of the first days of August.