Platoon

I had to stop reading the Buxton portion of the WHEN IT RAINS, IT POURS article today because it sent my mind back through the history of Baseball. I was luck enough to be a kid when Dizzy Dean was announcing games and he always made me smile, but as I learned more and more about him and his amazing, but too short career I learned lessons that continue to plague me. One injury cannot be isolated from the rest of the body. When I am suffering from various injuries that were accumulated in a lifetime of adventures and guiding my wife will sing a versus from skeleton song - https://www.lyricsondemand.com/miscellaneouslyrics/childsongslyrics/dryboneslyrics.html to remind me that everything is connected.
 
For Buxton to play with a broken toe is exactly what Dizzy Dean did and it killed his career. ]https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/tht-live/the-dizzy-dean-injury-cascade/[/url] When asked about the injury Dean said, "“Fractured. Hell, the damn thing’s broken!”"
 
Dean's injury happened during the All-Star game - "Initially, most thought Lou Gehrig, not Earl Averill, delivered the most damaging shot against Dizzy Dean in the 1937 All-Star Game. It wasn’t until later in the summer that the impact of Averill’s low liner that ricocheted off the toe of the Cardinals ace began to be understood."
 
"Dean returned to St. Louis and had the aching toe examined by Dr. Robert F. Hyland, the club physician. Hyland said the toe was bruised, not broken, and prescribed rest for Dean, according to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
Dean, who had a 12-7 record and 2.41 ERA, was scratched from his scheduled start July 11 versus the Reds.
During his recuperation, Dean clipped a newspaper photo showing his bandaged foot, autographed it, inscribed “Thanks, Earl” and mailed it to Averill.
 
Though Dean still was limping, Cardinals management instructed him to join the team in Boston. When he arrived, manager Frankie Frisch asked Dean whether he could pitch. Dean said he could.
 
On July 21, two weeks after he was injured, Dean started against the Braves in Boston. He pitched eight innings and yielded two runs, but he altered his delivery to compensate for the pain in his toe. By throwing with an unnatural motion, Dean damaged his arm." https://retrosimba.com/2017/07/08/dizzy-dean-and-his-final-painful-cardinals-days/
 
Dean tried to continue pitching even though he was hurt - the worst thing he could do. Buxton is our future and he has a history of injuries, but looking at his build and the way he plays it is not surprising. Someone needs to help him make decisions because players will always play.
 
In case we need reminding - here is a good site to look at 25 careers that were ended early by injuries. We might add the career altering of concussion to Mauer - http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1022656-25-potentially-immortal-baseball-careers-derailed-by-injuries#slide5 We can also add the shortened career of Kirby Puckett, and the impact of bad knees on Tony Oliva,
 
I know that I get caught up with critiquing players, but I also have to set back and realize that if they are injured and not playing it is frustrating them too.

When Brian Dinkelman hung up his spikes as a player after the 2013 season, a defensive shift with three infielders on one side of second base was still a relative novelty being employed occasionally by the Houston Astros and perhaps one or two other teams at the Major League level.
 
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/DinkelmanLewis052718-600x400.jpg
Brian Dinkelman talks hitting with Royce Lewis during batting practice. (Photo: SD Buhr)
 
Less than five years later, “Dink” is in his third season as the Cedar Rapids Kernels’ hitting coach and he and Kernels manager Toby Gardenhire are seeing the infield shift deployed several times on a nightly basis – both against their team’s hitters and by their own infielders.
 
The times, they are a changin’.
 
Any regular observer at Class A Midwest League games would likely tell you that the Quad Cities River Bandits probably employ shifts more than any other team in the league. It’s not a coincidence that Quad Cities is the Class A affiliate of the Astros.
 
The Seattle Mariners’ MWL affiliate, the Clinton Lumber Kings, on the other hand, play a comparatively normal infield alignment against virtually every opposing hitter.
 
The Kernels fall somewhere in the middle of those extremes, but the shift is something that has clearly been an increasingly apparent part of their defensive strategy over the course of Dinkelman’s tenure as the club’s hitting coach.
 
And that’s fine with him.
 
“I don’t think it’s a bad thing for baseball.” Dinkelman said in an interview during his club’s latest homestand, “Because teams are studying other teams and they’re playing the chances of where they think the hitter’s going to hit the ball, where his tendency to hit the ball is. Now, if that gives your team an advantage to play your players in that sort of position, then I’m all for it, because you’re looking for any advantage for your team to be better than the other team.”
 
It may just be part of the natural cycle of teams trying to find the best way to win a baseball game, but infield shifts certainly have given hitting coaches like Dinkelman one more thing to think about as they help the next generation of position players to achieve their big league dreams.
 
So far, though, it’s not causing a dramatic change in how he and the Twins are teaching the art of hitting a baseball.
 
“We’ve addressed it a little bit,” he said. “I don’t think we’re going to change the way that we approach it or our swing, to try to hit around the shift. Some guys just are not able to do that with their swing. I’d rather have a guy who can hit the ball hard and hit it right through the shift. Because if you hit the ball hard enough, you’re still going to be able to hit the ball through the shift, for the most part, most of the time.”
 
Lou Boudreau, as the manager of the Cleveland Indians, famously implemented the infield shift to try to contain Red Sox Hall of Fame slugger Ted Williams, but even Boudreau admitted later that his hope was that the shift would get into Williams’ head.
 
Whether or not that strategy worked against Williams is open to debate, but Dinkelman indicated that, as they’ve begun implementing the shift themselves, the Kernels have seen evidence that the mental aspect of facing the shift can’t be discounted.
 
“Where guys fall in trouble, and we’ve seen it even here at this level, is whenever they see a shift on, guys try to manipulate their swing to try to hit it where the guys aren’t and they end up making just weak contact or swinging and missing.
 
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/DinkelmanGardenhire052718-600x400.jpg
Brian Dinkelman and Toby Gardenhire (Photo by SD Buhr)
 
“Toby and I talked about that. You see (an opposing hitter) swing and he’s trying to shoot it the other way because he sees that everybody’s on (the other side of the infield) and that’s just not part of his swing and he can’t do that. So that’s kind of an advantage for us because he’s taking a swing that he doesn’t want to take.”
 
If that’s the case, would it make sense then to coach players to make that kind of swing a regular part of their game, in order to beat the shift? Are we on the verge of returning to the days where every hitter is coached to, “use the whole field?”
 
Not necessarily, but some attempt to broaden a player’s range is only logical, given the current defensive trends.
 
“There are still guys that use the whole field and there are still a handful of guys who are more one side of the field oriented,” Dinkelman explained. “If we can work on them to try to get them to use, say even the middle of the field, so it doesn’t have to just be all pull side. If they use the middle of the field, then their shift that (opponents are) playing against them won’t be as extreme and it’ll still open up a few more holes in the infield.”
 
And what about bunting? Bunting has become a favorite target for ridicule from some of the more ardent supporters of more statistical metrics-based strategies who argue that giving up an out almost never improves a team’s chances of scoring runs.
 
But would bunting more, especially into an almost open side of the infield, make bunting once again become a more important skill?
 
“I think it is,” Dinkelman agreed. “I think that bunting still needs to be used if it’s the right situation in the game. If a guy’s leading off an inning and you need a baserunner or two and they’re playing a shift on you, giving you the whole left side of the infield for a bunt, I’m all for that. Because if you start bunting, they’re going to have to make an adjustment (to their shift) if you keep getting hit after hit.”
 
It’s not a strategy that they’re going to encourage every hitter to employ, however.
 
“Now, if you’ve got a guy who is a complete home run threat, then I’ll probably want to let him go ahead and swing the bat. Because if he hits a home run, that’s one run for us, where if he bunts and just gets a single, it may not do us a whole lot of good.
 
“I think it depends on the player, but I think the bunt is still part of the game, if that’s part of your game, a way to get on base to help produce offense for our team, then I’m all for it.”
 
This season, the Twins have entrusted millions of dollars’ worth of highly regarded young hitting prospects, including successive first round picks Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff, to Dinkelman’s tutelage.
 
While Lewis, Kirilloff and infielder Jordan Gore have been producing at the plate with batting averages staying above .300 and only rare and short periods of anything that could be considered close to a slump, many of the other hitters in the lineup have been slower to come around.
 
After the Kernels’ 16-hit onslaught in their 15-4 win over Wisconsin on Wednesday, Cedar Rapids sports the fourth highest team batting average in the league. But taking away the stats of Lewis, Kirilloff and Gore, you’re left with a team batting average of just .234.
 
Granted, if you take away three .300+ stat lines from any team, the remaining team BA isn’t likely to be terribly strong.
 
Regardless, however, Dinkelman remains bullish on the rest of his offensive unit.
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Dinkelman052718-600x400.jpg
Brian Dinkelman (Photo by SD Buhr)
 
“They’re all making progress, they’re all learning the game,” he said.
 
“The thing with our roster is we’re so young. We work on things, work on approach and set up, stuff like that. Try to help get them through a daily routine of being a professional baseball player. But they’re coming along nicely.”
 
Nine of the 13 position players on the Cedar Rapids roster are 21 years old or younger and, even after Jacob Pearson’s 20th birthday party on June 1, three will still be teenagers.
 
These guys weren’t facing 94 mph fastballs and 86 mph sliders from every pitcher who stepped out of an opponent’s bullpen before they put on a Kernels’ uniform for the first time. But that’s what they’re getting accustomed to seeing in today’s Midwest League.
 
“These guys are new to this league or to pro baseball, so it takes a little bit of adjustment to get used to it, but they’re coming along,” Dinkelman said. “We’re about two months in now, so I think they’re starting to get the feel or understanding of a daily routine and what they’re going to face daily from the opposing team.
 
“It’s not always about the numbers right now at this level, it’s more about your mindset and making progress and building that routine so as the season goes along or as the seasons go on, you have that to fall back on.”

Buster Olney wrote a column that spoke to my frustrations. In the long run baseball is not being hurt by time of game - it is dying of boredom. When we base a game on strikeouts, walks, and homeruns we might as well have a home run and a throwing contest instead of a ball game.
http://www.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post/_/id/18564/olney-parts-of-baseball-are-disappearing-before-our-very-eyes
 
I miss stolen bases. If you saw Vince Coleman, Maury Wills, Lou Brock or Rickey Henderson you know there was an extra tension, suspense, and anticipation. Each pitch was exciting because baseball had an element of the unknown - a mystery. I loved it. Now the Twins could have that if Buxton gets on base, is not injured and is encouraged to go.
 
But in all time rankings only Rajai Davis is in the top 100, #73 with 402. Jacob Ellsbury is 118 with 343. Then Hanley Ramirez is 187 - 281.
 
Now I love bunt singles, but I also enjoy a good sacrifice. The leader in the all-time standings among active players is Elvis Andrus who is Number 395 with 100 sacrifices.
 
The sacrifice, done well adjusts the defense, creates speed, and can lead to miscues and base running adventures.
 
I really loved hit and run too, but who does it any more? It is not for everyone, but for those who could control the bat it could be an excellent play.
 
I like action. A full count walk or strikeout is a minimum of seven pitches. Are they exciting? NO. At least they addressed the intentional walk.
 
Okay a home run is exciting - for 2 minutes - of a three hour game. The most exciting player for the Twins right now is Rosario because he is always looking to take another base. It pressures the other team. I love it. I also love those who can challenge the shift. Little things, lots of them, filling up the innings is fun baseball. Could a team built with speed like the old St Louis Cardinals under Whitey Herzog, the dodgers of Maury Wills, the A's of Rickey Henderson or the Go-go White Sox of Aparacio and Fox win now? I would love to see someone try.

I just finished reading Jim Kaat's essay on ESPN - http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/23474497/jim-kaat-says-mlb-adapt-7-inning-games-effort-improve-sport and I really liked it. I think it is well thought out and he strengthens it with some notes about how the game has already changed so drastically over the years. This is a good change and I would love to see it, but won't because it will be resisted by the union, the league, the traditionalists.
 
​But what is tradition? Is it a pitcher throwing half the games and winning 50? Is it one pitcher winning 511 games? Is it an era of 400 hitters? Is it the murderers row and the sluggers who followed (sluggers who could also get hits and not strike out all the time)? Is it the war years when a 15 year old starts for Cincinnati? Can we say it is when Jackie Robinson integrated baseball and changed the rosters and stars? Is it the Bronx Bombers who dominated the 50's? Maybe it is the expansion era when lots of new records were set and we went from 154 to 162 games but kept all the same records? Is it PEDs? Is it the era of Latin ballplayers? Perhaps we can say it is the era of wildcard teams. Is it the demise of starters and rosters of all relief pitchers? Is it the era of big Ks and lots of HRs? There is no true tradition. Each season stands alone.
 
 
That's why we can argue about eras and great players without winning or losing. Its why the HOF is merely an annual pissing contest of my era was better than your era and your stats don't count because now we do not care about BA and ERA and Wins.
 
 
 
The very discussion that games are too long is a reasonable topic and a serious one. Change is not going to come by the little things that have been done. Shaving 3 minutes off the game is not the answer. Go Jim. I hope someone else is listening. And by the way - I would put you in the HOF!

I originally posted this in forums but realized this is more of a blog post:
 
As we have seen over the years when given opportunities to play every day Eduardo Escobar shines.Filling in for Miguel Sano so far this year he has shown he has the bat to be 3rd baseman, posting a .993 OPS while hitting 15 doubles and 7 home runs in 2018.
 
Over his career Escobar has primarily played the left side of infield playing 322 games at short and 196 at 3rd base.However, he has played a handful of games at 2nd base in his career.The opportunities have been limited in Minnesota over the last 4 or 5 years with Dozier being a fixture there.
 
However, it has been well publicized Brian Dozier would like to test free agency this winter.And if he finds a new home, there is suddenly a glaring hole on the right side of the infield.Granted, Dozier isn't doing much to increase his value as of now, but Dozier is the type of hitter who can go on absolute tears and make month long slumps disappear, which would likely increase his value again to levels the Twins may not want to pay.
 
This is where Escobar comes in.Also a free agent at the end of the season, his reputation is not that of Dozier yet.Which means he likely will cost much less on the open market, if he gets there.
 
In small sample sizes defensively at 2nd base Eduardo's defensive metrics compare relatively close to Dozier.Escobar is nearly two years younger than Dozier as well.
 
Additionally, Escobar's ability to play multiple positions gives the Twins flexibility into the future.For example if the Twins can sign him for a 3-4 year deal this off-season he can be penciled in to be the 2nd baseman in 2019 and at least the beginning of 2020.But if Royce Lewis comes knocking in 2020 and continues to be the Shortstop everyone hopes he becomes Jorge Polanco can then be slid over to 2nd base and Esco back to 3rd assuming Sano will be a 1st baseman/DH by that time.
 
I don't think this is outside the realm of possibilities and personally believe this is a great option for the Twins future infield.
 
* Disclaimer - I am a very big Eduardo Escobar fan and am long Escobar stock.

The Minnesota Twins were going to be without Miguel Sano at some point during the 2018 Major League Baseball season. Whether from a possible suspension, complications due to a rod being inserted into his leg, or the normal wear and tear a body of that size can endure, the reality is he would miss time. When that point came, Eduardo Escobar was going to be the man that filled in. What wasn't expected is that the utility man would raise the bar. Then again, maybe we should have seen this coming all along.
 
Back in 2015, I wrote a piece entitled Twins Cash Check Formerly Known as Francisco Liriano. The point of that article was that Liriano had run his course within the organization and was flipped to the Chicago White Sox in a move that was largely forgettable. Escobar was a part of the return however, and he posted a 2.6 fWAR in 2014. As a part time player, he'd carved out a nice role for himself and the 2015 spring training continued to carry that momentum forward. Since that point, he's posted yearly fWAR totals of 1.9, -0.2, and 1.7. Outside of 2016 in which Minnesota went in the can as a whole, he's been incredible valuable.
 
Now having played in 29 of the teams first 32 games, Escobar finds himself with a 1.4 fWAR (best on the team) that projects to a 7.1 mark over the course of a full season. There's next to no chance that pace continues, but for the sake of context, Joe Mauer won the MVP in 2009 with a 7.6 fWAR season. Right now, Escobar is playing like nothing short of the Twins team MVP.
 
The great thing about what is currently taking place for the Fogo de Chao loving infielder, is that he's not doing anything too out of the ordinary. His .341 BABIP is far from inflated, he's swinging through roughly the same amount of pitches, and neither his contact or chase rates are out of whack. His 35 home run pace is probably unsustainable, but far from crazy after launching 20 a season ago. The jump from a 12.8% HR/FB rate to a 15.9% HR/FB is noticeable but doesn't scream crazy either. If we're looking for a change, things could potentially be explained by a more gradual one.
 
At the time of first tracking in 2015, Escobar posted a 13.4 degree average launch angle on his base hits. Year over year, he's improved that number to 14.1, 17.1, and now 18.5 this season. Getting lift is something we've seen the game embrace as it positively correlates with the quality of hits generated. Simply put, hitting the ball harder, further, and higher is only going to positively impact an individual's overall results. Eduardo's double, triple, and home run totals seem to agree with that notion as well.
 
I'm not going to boil this outburst from the Twins utility man down solely to a launch angle adaptation. I think there's plenty of factors at play, but it seems apparent that his growth as a hitter has definitely contributed to the current surge. What's arguably more important in this whole scenario, is just how valuable Escobar is to the Twins roster makeup as a whole.
 
The talk of the offseason was in regards to how the Twins will retain Brian Dozier going into the 2019 season. My inclination all along has been that they'd either flip him for something, or allow him to walk with a qualifying offer tied to his name. Given what the market showed this last offseason, there's a decent possibility that Brian could accept that offer and return to the Twins on a one-year deal. Regardless, the totality of his age, production, and value going forward seems somewhat replaceable for Minnesota. Trying to find another Eduardo Escobar could be a more daunting task.
 
Over the course of a full season, fWAR totals around 1.5-2.0 are relatively easy to come by. Escobar plays many positions, but is probably below average defensively at all of them. That being said, he's a very good teammate and provides a strong clubhouse presence. He'll be just 30 years old next season, and the familiarity of backing up all over for the Twins is something he's done since he was a 23 year old. Staring at an average annual value south of $8 million or so per year, that's a commodity that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine may not be so keen on losing.
 
At the end of the day, Escobar is front and center regarding this Twins current turnaround. That's not to say someone else won't pick up the slack shortly, and it's a fool's errand to realistically expect 162 game averages off of this current level of production. Even at a mid-range value for Paul Molitor though, Eduardo Escobar is a player that winning teams need to have around and he's a great asset for Minnesota.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

I posted the following comment in the discussion of Lynn’s White Sox game:
When I look at the lineup I see such a gap at 4.The guys filling in the 3 - 4 - 5 spots are doing great, but with Morrison still trying to find the Mendoza line we really need Sano to give us a big bat.Of course we need a Sano who learns to strikeout a lot less.When I look at the Yankees big boppers you can see how it really changes the game, but they also have a better approach.
 
Sano with 506 Ks in 1220 ABs wastes so many opportunities. Judge has 294 ks in 748 ABs. If Ks were hits Sano would have a 414 average and Judge 393. But Judge has an OPS of 989 career and Sano 837.Miquel has the potential, but so far he is most effective at getting on the DL rather than the bases.
 
This seems to be the new baseball – at least for now – Relief pitchers, Ks, and HRs. It is not the baseball I enjoy.
Then I went to ESPN and found an essay by Buster Olney that I found a perfect compliment to what I am trying to convey:
 
“Fact: A starting pitcher facing a lineup for a third time or fourth time will experience a decline in performance, generally. As a result, starters are getting pulled from games earlier than ever.
 
Fact: Relief pitchers are throwing at a higher velocity than ever, diminishing hitters' chances to put the ball in play.
 
Fact: As it has become more difficult to generate hits against higher velocity and defensive shifts, hitters are taking more aggressive swings, at higher launch angles, in an effort to lift the ball. This approach is generating more homers and, apparently, rocket-fueling the pace of strikeouts.
 
Some executives who have followed the numbers and helped design the dramatic changes to the sport are OK with the big swings, big flies and big whiffs. “I’ve got no problem with it,” one club official said the other day. “We’re just trying to adapt and win ballgames.”
 
But a lot of executives abhor the Frankenstein monster that the numbers and science have helped create, with the dueling parades of relief pitchers and increasingly overpowered hitters. “I hate it,” one high-ranking evaluator said. “It’s just not that fun to watch.” http://www.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post/_/id/18486/olney-have-big-swings-big-flies-and-big-whiffs-broken-baseball
 
I chose Judge and Sano to compare because they represent the new approach, but one has been much better at it than the other. Sano has both the K and the DL as issues – the most games he has appeared in during his Twins career is 71% of the season. He has collected 5.5 WAR in 4 seasons, Judge has 9.3 in three seasons. My problem is, that I think Sano has as much potential as Judge. How do we get him to realize it?
 
In an era where the big K and big HR totals are everywhere the player that succeeds is the one with fewer Ks and more HRs or else establishes his ability in other stats. Sano has 76 HRs in 330 games, Judge has 64 in 215 games. Judge beats Sano in OPS, but more important as a Twin fan – Sano set his OPS bar in year one and has come no where close to it since.
 
Baseball is worried about length of game, but it should be worried about the action that keeps fans attention from inning to inning. Waiting for a K or HR is boring - Last year “117 batters hitting 20 or more homers -- far more than in 2001, in the height of the steroid era, when 88 hitters clubbed 20 or more homers, and far more than in 2011, when 68 hitters got to the 20-homer mark.”
 
At the same time starting pitchers are pitching less – an Ace is still only a 5 or 6 inning arm. Do we really enjoy a parade of relief pitchers? I would love to see the manager limited to three per game. I am also out of touch with many in that I love the 300+ hitter more than the 20 HR hitters. And I liked the SB and all the moves that involved both bat control and speed.
 
I would like Sano back, but I would also like an improved approach.

My last blog chronicled the movement of black baseball players into major league baseball from Jackie Robinson in 1947 to the Red Sox finally adding a black player in 1958. As I said then, if we question the impact of steroids on our baseball records we should also look at how the exclusion of the black ballplayer impacted the records between 1989 and 1958. If one deserves an asterisk, the other requires a new said of record standards.
I understand that baseball evolves – we had the hitless era, the homerun explosion, the war years, the years of integration, baseball’s best decade by my estimation in the 1960’s, then the domination by the pitcher, free agency, the monsters of the steroid, and the era of the bullpen. So it is hard to completely compare and determine what a difference the addition of the African American player made, except for my judgmental statement that the 1960’s might be baseball’s best decade.
 
In the 1950’s I rooted for the Milwaukee Braves and learned to hate the Yankees. The Yankees dominated everything as the rest of the teams integrated. The Yankees, took their time, added Elston Howard, but did very little and their star began to diminish. In fact they signed other black players like Vic Power and Reuben Gomez, but they were traded because the Yankees management wanted to make sure that they had a quiet “negro” and not a trouble maker like Jackie Robinson. http://www.angelfire.com/ny5/yankeeswebpage/elston.html
This started the downfall and end of the Yankee dynasty until they started signing or more likely trading or signing Free Agent black and Latino players like Willie Randolph, Derrick Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Reggie Jackson, Dave Winfield, and Rickey Henderson.
 
From Aaron and the 1957 Braves on into the 1960s it was a plethora of Black players – Robinson, Mays, Clemente, Stargell, Gibson, Banks, Jenkins – that set the standards for MLB.
 
The influx of black ball players meant that the quality of MLB increased dramatically. It is easy to make the assumption that the lack of black ball players meant that the all white major leagues did not have a representative set of statistics and all stars before Robinson and Campanella and Mays and others joined the league.

Over the offseason and into spring training, plenty of discussions were had with Max Kepler in regards to his approach. Media covering the Twins probed, and I'd imagine that hitting coach James Rowson continued to challenge the young German. After failing to take a big step forward in 2017, it continues to seem like there's so much more potential left in there. Through the early part of 2018 however, it seems that Kepler has made a few tweaks, and given his comments, they may come as somewhat of a surprise.
 
When talking with Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press back in March, Kepler said "I'm not going to be swinging up and doing all that." He not that "it's not about launch angle" for him, and that his goal is to get his "bat head in the zone as early as possible." There's nothing wrong with any of those comments, but in recent years, we've seen the data suggest that the best avenue for success when putting the ball in play is by doing so in the air.
 
The reality at the big league level, is that ground balls simply don't equate to consistently high-yielding results. Major league players are more than capable of handling routine plays on the ground, and most are just fine turning even the spectacular opportunity into an out. Whether lifting the ball for liners in the gaps, or sending it flying for home runs over the fence, success in the game today comes through the air.
 
Despite Kepler's comments suggesting he isn't ready to adopt that principle, the results suggest that he may have seen the fruits the process is able to bear. After owning a 12.7 degree launch angle on average in 2017, he's boosted that to a 14.2 degree mark this season. In doing so, he's also seen his fly ball percentage go from 39.5% in 2017, to a whopping 53.6% this season. While getting the ball in the air, he currently has (an unsustainable, but notable anyways) a 20% HR/FB rate in comparison to just an 11.5% mark from a season ago.
 
Obviously getting the ball in the air also requires you to make strong contact. In that department as well, Kepler has upped the ante. He's generating a career best 42.9% hard hit rate, and pitch recognition seems to be something he's a bit more honed in on as well. With a career 29.5% chase rate, and a 28.5% mark from 2017, he's toting just a 25.6% chase rate thus far in the current campaign.
 
For a guy like Kepler, being able to generate enough power for extra base hits will be key to taking the next step forward. While he does have plenty of speed at his disposal (he did have 13 triples in 2015 at Double-A), being considered a true threat as a corner outfielder relies upon some thump rearing its head. What's encouraging is that Kepler's frame has always suggested that it will come, and the output has displayed a reality that it may just be a small tweak here or there from sticking for good.
 
Right now, it's plenty early to be drawing any season-long conclusions, but you absolutely have to be impressed with the results. If Kepler was consulted right now, I'm not sure that he'd agree in his approach being changed at all. It's also not particularly fair to attribute his early success solely to the lift he's applied to the baseball. However, if he's being fair, there's little to detract from the results at this point, and we have a measurable process to point towards.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Through eight games in the 2018 Major League Baseball season the Minnesota Twins have played to a .500 record. Having had to deal with blistering cold, and even some snow, it's hardly felt like a true baseball season. If there's one thing that has felt warm and fuzzy however, it's been the look and output of first basemen Joe Mauer.
In 2017, Mauer returned to the land of .300 batting averages for the first time since 2013. He posted an .801 OPS bolstered by a .384 OBP all while looking the part of a guy that has a trio of batting titles under his belt. Having already transformed himself into a Gold Glove caliber first basemen, getting back to his old ways at the dish was a nice sigh to see. What's encouraging is that early returns in 2018 suggest that there may be more to come.
 
To understand where we are, we should probably take a look back at where we've been. The last time Mauer was considered "himself" in 2013, he was putting balls in play with a 37.4% hard hit rating. His chase rates (O-Swing %) and swinging strike percentages have really never gotten out of line, which indicates that his going well has always been a reflection of barreling the baseball. Fast forward to when things took a turn for the worst, and we find ourselves at the 2014 and 2015 seasons. Mauer's .732 and .718 OPS in those two seasons respectively are a career worst. It's no coincidence that those numbers were posted in conjunction with 28% and 29.8% hard hit rates.
 
Now let's jump back to the present. A year ago, Mauer looked like a revitalized and rejuvenated player. His 2.2 fWAR last year was a high water mark since the last time he was an All Star (2013), and it was backed by a 36.4% hard hit rate. What's great is that the early returns in 2018 don't make that look like an anomaly, and if anything, suggest that things may be trending even a bit better.
 
Sure it's early, so let's pump the breaks on another MVP type season, but Mauer's start is pretty eye-popping. Thus far the Twins first basemen has a career best 47.6% hard hit rate, and he's already put 11 balls in play with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher. A season ago his total was 204 and right now he's on pace to slightly eclipse that with a total of 223. Diving in even a bit further to those barreled balls, 10 of the 11 have been hit 100 mph or harder. In 2018 Mauer generated exit velocities of 100+ mph on 105 different occasions. With his current pace, he'd nearly double that in 2018 as he tracking towards 203 occurrences.
 
What we're seeing in the early going from Mauer is a batter that's not only locked in, but one that isn't being cheated either. His 13.4% chase rate is more than 3% better than at any other point in his career. Having always had a very good idea of where the strike zone is, Joe is currently dictating at bats, than walloping the baseball when it comes into his hitting zone. Last season, Mauer's 13.9 K% was 26th among qualified MLB hitters. At just 10% out of the gate in 2018, only 15 qualified hitters have posted better numbers.
 
There's no denying that there's a level of regression awaiting its turn to set in. After all, Mauer has a current seven game hitting streak and owns a .375/.500/.542 slash line out of the gate. The .429 BABIP is incredibly high, but also reflective of the quality contact he's continued to generate. Even with regression though, the process has yielded results that should display a level of sustainability with the assumption that the blueprint is stuck to over the course of the season.
 
At the end of the day, Minnesota isn't going to watch Joe Mauer win another batting title by the end of his career (Jose Altuve exists in the American League). What is becoming more clear however, is that there's some serious ability left in the tank for a guy trending towards a Hall of Fame career. On the final year of his deal with the Twins, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine would be well served to bring this guy back for another couple of years. If Joe wants to keep trotting out to the diamond, it doesn't seem like his skills have told him that's a bad idea.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

As we carefully analyze each game of the new season and try to read the tea leaves on each swing of the bat I thought I would provide just a little change of pace and look at another story from baseball history.
 
 
While Civil War general Abner Doubleday is mythologically given the title of the founder of the game of baseball, a myth that has been refuted by nearly every scholar, we should look at baseball and an even more famous General – William Tecumseh Sherman. In his biography by James Lee McDonough we learn the following:
“…a number of friends with whom Cump (Sherman) played a primitive form of baseball, using yarn balls. From time to time the balls were hit into a garden adjoining the playing field, whose owner became irate at his garden being trampled by young me retrieving valls. When the man began confiscating the balls and throwing them into his stove, Sherman and his buddies sought revenge. They filled a ball with gunpowder. Soon the unsuspecting garden owner seized the devilishly prepared thing and cast it into his stove; a fiery explosion rocked the house, leaving the man suffering with burns and damage o his home. The boys, naturally, had waited close by to observe the result of their scheme. Suddenly the angry man burst forth from his house, intent upon chasing down the culprits. He managed to catch the slowest of the boys as they ran.” Sherman being fleet of foot escaped unscathed!
 
The Smithsonian takes the relationship to baseball and the Civil War another step forward with this statement, “The evolving Knickerbocker Code or rules had its origins in metropolitan New York in 1845. Union soldiers, more familiar with the game, introduced others, including Southerners and Westerners to baseball throughout the Civil War, resulting in thousands of soldiers learning the game. Upon returning home, the game spread to friends and neighbors and soon the sport was played in every region of the country, solidifying its title as “The National Pastime." http://americanhistory.si.edu/blog/2012/08/civil-war-baseball.html

If you believe that maintaining the status quo in minor league baseball is important, you aren't going to like this article.
 
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/baseballMoney900-1-600x401.jpg
 
However, if you believe that some things - like simple human decency in the area of fair pay - are more important than whether or not the current minor league model is continued, I suspect you'll be joining me in raising your voice in objection to what Major League Baseball (along with their weak sister organization, Minor League Baseball) are conspiring with members of the U.S. Congress to do as early as today.
 
The Washington Post is reporting that MLB lobbyists and a handful of Congressmen plan to attach an amendment to the $1.3 trillion spending bill that must become law this week in order to avoid another government shutdown. That amendment would specifically hand baseball an exemption to federal labor laws for their treatment of minor league ballplayers.
 
Congressmen in MLB/MiLB's pockets introduced a separate bill to grant this exemption a couple of years ago, but it has gone nowhere. So, now, it's apparently time to slip the provisions into a bill that has nothing whatsoever to do with anything related to baseball.
 
It's what's commonly called a "Christmas Tree Ornament" amendment that gets attached to a big "tree," in this case the critical spending bill. And guess who's getting the big present? Yes, 30 multi-billionaires who simply don't want to share even a fraction of the enormous revenues that fans are giving them with the very poorest of their players.
 
And the amendment's supporters aren't even being up front with their intention to hang this ornament on the spending bill tree.
 
According to the Post report, the amendment has not been included in any of the drafts of the bill distributed thus far. The intent, clearly, was to hang this particular ornament on the tree at the last minute, when nobody was looking closely enough to even notice it.
 
Let me pose this question, for any of you who may still think there's nothing wrong with 20 year old ballplayers working for far less than minimum wage. If giving MLB this exemption is the right thing to do, why hide it this way, even from other members of Congress?
 
Players at lower levels (such as with the Class A Cedar Rapids Kernels) are making maybe $1,200 per month. That's GROSS pay, by the way.
 
The players that will be sent to Cedar Rapids at the beginning of April aren't getting paid that while they're down in Ft. Myers for spring training, either. They get paid only for time spent on an active minor league roster. In the minor leagues, that's five months... at most. Many players play in "short season" leagues that run only three months during the summer.
 
Just for reference, I made better money working for a fast food burger chain... in 1976.
 
MLB has obviously been threatening the minor league organization, along with those who own and operate affiliated minor league teams, with all manner of catastrophic consequences (up to and including contraction of teams/classes within the minor league system, no doubt) should MLB end up required to pay their minor leaguers anything remotely close to a livable wage.
 
You see, despite the millions of dollars MLB's billionaires have paid their lobbyists, 30 wealth old white guys only can carry so much clout with Congress. But when you threaten the hundreds of minor league teams in Congressional districts across the country and get the front offices and fans of those teams involved with personal lobbying to save their local teams, now you've got yourself some effective lobbying. Lobbying that MLB didn't even have to pay for, just use a little not-so-subtle coercion.
 
Don't think this is what's going on? Listen to this quote within the Post story from Pat O'Conner, the head of MiLB.
 
“We’re in 42 states, 160 cities. We’ve got over $3 billion of infrastructure, much of which is still being paid off by the clubs and the communities where they exist,” he said. “This is about constituents, this is about jobs at home, and this is about quality of life at home.”
 
So, obviously, the concern is for the, "quality of life at home," for the local fans, rather than the quality of life for players, many of whom are from poor Latin American countries and most of whom did not receive anything close to the large signing bonuses that get all the media attention when they sign contracts with a MLB team.
 
The minimum wage in the big leagues is approaching $600,000. For the roughly price of one minimum wage big leaguer on each team, MLB could afford to pay an extra $1,200 per month to 100 of their minor league players (that's four rosters worth of players). For under a million of their precious dollars per year, MLB owners could effectively make this issue go away.
 
The Twins reportedly will have an Opening Day big league payroll of $130,000,000 (and they are only in the middle of the pack among their MLB peers in payroll). Think about that for just a moment.
 
It's not a coincidence that minor league pay is determined by negotiations with the MLB players' union - a union that minor leaguers are not actually members of.
 
In effect, the billionaire owners are putting the screws to minor league operators and fans (not to mention the players) in order to save themselves from having to spend a small fraction of 1% of their annual revenues on additional minor league pay.
 
The contract between MLB and MiLB that sets the terms for how affiliates operate together is due to expire in 2020 and MLB isn't going to renew it until this matter is resolved. They are obviously using the contract as leverage to get the minor league organizations to lobby Congress on their behalf.
 
It's coercion, plain and simple, and it's shameful.
 
Yet, because Congress is Congress, don't be surprised if it's also effective.
 
(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.)

Are you not entertained? Are you not entertained?? After years of luke-warm stove off seasons the new front office has made their mark on the roster by signing five players to the big league roster who are ready and able to contribute on opening day. Add to that the trade for Jake Odorizzi and you’re talking nearly 25% of the 25 man roster acquired this off season from outside the team.
 
What is particularly stunning about these additions is the money which was spent on acquiring the players. While the latest additions, Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison appear to be team friendly deals, Lynn will still be the 4th highest paid player on the roster in 2018 and Morrison the 9th. Call is savvy management, or call it bargain hunting, these guys will command a healthy share of the Twins payroll in 2018.
 
In fact, if you look at the 2018 Base Salaries of the five free agents the Twins signed, plus the $2M paid to Michael Pineda in 2018, the total ($34M) is the fourth highest for 2018 salaries paid behind only the Phillies ($56M), Cubs ($53M) and Rockies ($42.3M). Surprised? I was. And what is even more impressive is that these short term deals will allow the front office to continue to have roster flexibility into the future, particularly when the likes of Hughes and Mauer come off the books.
 
After all the dust settles, it looks as though the Twins opening day payroll will be right around $130M. While this is an increase of about 24% over 2017’s opening day number, it puts the Twin’s only right around the median of all MLB teams in terms of total payroll.
 
And how do we feel about being in the middle of the pack for payroll? I’ll take it. Particularly when the front office appears to be adding players in a smart way, to what is already a solid roster of young talent.

On March 21, 2010, the Minnesota Twins locked up Joe Mauer to an 8-year extension.
 
They also locked up Joe Mauer's face.
 
The "Face of the Franchise" or FotF (as no one calls it), is an oft-cited, nebulously-valued sports phenomenon. It’s hard to say with certainty that there actually is value to having a FotF, but even if we all agreed there was value, how much value a FotF adds is impossible to quantify.
 
Does having a specific player's face plastered on banners and billboards around town help sell more season tickets? Does it help the team in any way to have a sought-after shirsey at the team store? Does giving away adhesive sideburns boost attendance and thus payroll which in turn puts a more competitive team on the field?
 
NO ONE KNOWS! The whole Face of the Franchise concept is deserving of the shrug emoticon topped with a New Era cap.
 
This off-season has seen a few Faces of the Franchise dealt away. Giancarlo Stanton, Evan Longoria, and Andrew McCutchen were all traded (mostly to the Giants) in the past couple months. The effects of those moves will likely first be felt internally with a stagnation of season ticket sales, more so for the suddenly rebuilding Marlins and Pirates than the Rays.
 
Let’s say the Pirates had decided to rebuild while keeping McCutchen. Would his presence help recoup ticket sales that would be lost in his absence? I think so. An average baseball fan will more likely want to watch a 90-loss team with former-MVP Andrew McCutchen than a 94-loss team with Adam Frazier in left field (no offense to Adam and his family).
 
Having a FotF kind of matters. It matters more than a batboy but less than a manager. It's more important than a retractable roof, but less important than park factors. A Face of the Franchise is more meaningful than meaningless, but means less than something meaningful.
 
 
 
Picking a New Face
 
Regardless of the exact benefits that a FotF has for an organization, Joe Mauer's occasionally-bearded, milk-loving face has been synonymous with Twins baseball for more than a decade now. But he and his mug are reaching the end of their reign.
 
This season will mark exactly one octennium since Mauer signed his 8-year extension, meaning that the Twins may very well be Mauer-less after this season when his contract expires. If that is the case, he will leave a face-shaped hole at the FotF position, so we need to speculate about his replacement.
 
First, we need to establish some criteria for what elevates a normal face to a FotF level. Looking across the league, both now and historically, there are certain aspects of a player that make them FotF material.
 
Quality
A good player is more likely to be a FotF than a bad player. Where talking about All-Stars here, not 4th outfielders.
 
Familiarity
They need to have been with the team for a long time. Ask yourself, “Who is the longest-tenured player on Team X?” and quite often you’ve named the face of that franchise. Familiarity also takes into account how often that player is on the field. Hitters are more often the FotF than pitchers due in part to the fact that hitters play everyday while pitchers play every fifth day (in the case of starters).
 
Monogamy
Similar to Familiarity, but with deeper roots. A FotF bonus is giving to a player who came up with the organization—someone who was home grown. With more and more fans following prospects from the draft through the minors, coming up with an organization and providing hope for a brighter future is appreciated by the fans.
 
All of these attributes are really just parsing the main factor that determines the Face of the Franchise:
Fan Likability
 
The FotF is all about the fans—getting them to turn out on cold Tuesday nights, getting them excited for Spring Training games, giving them a reason to fill out an All-Star ballot, getting them to tune in to a September game after the team has been eliminated from playoff contention. A FotF makes a baseball team more marketable to the fans.
 
 
 
 
Who will be the Twins next “Face of the Franchise?”
Here are the candidates:
 
 
Brian Dozier
HIS CASE
Dozier is the obvious heir apparent. Among position players, he’s been the leader in FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement (fWAR) each of the past 4 years, and he’s been the league leader in HAIR since his major-league debut. Along with his quality on-field play, he came up through the Twins’ minor league system and has been on the major league roster since 2012, making him the 2nd-longest tenured player on the roster after Mauer. If he’s on the Twins next year and Mauer is not, he’s the clear FotF.
 
HIS FLAWS
The primary problem with Dozier is the same as Mauer’s—he’s a free agent after this year. Even more than Mauer, Dozier seems destined to sign elsewhere after this season given that he will probably be sought after by several team. The Twins seem more likely to spend free agent money on pitching in the next few years than hitting, so it would make sense for them to let Dozier walk (assuming he's not traded during the season).
 
Byron Buxton
HIS CASE
The long-hyped, former-#1 prospect in baseball has shown, at times, why he received so much love from the scouts. We’ve seen incredibly high highs both with the glove and with the bat. If he can do anything close to what he did at the plate in the 2nd half of last year while continuing to dominate on the defensive end, he could easily earn some down-ballot MVP votes.
 
HIS FLAWS
At this point in his career, most of Buxton’s value comes with his glove. He’s had flashes at the plate, but he’s inconsistent and still strikes out A LOT. It’s difficult for fans to rally behind a glove-first center fielder who struggles to make contact at the plate. There are only so many flailing strikeouts that a diving catch will atone for. Pair that with the residual hype that Buxton received as a prospect, and anything short of greatness could be seen as a disappointment to many fans.
 
Miguel Sano
HIS CASE
He’s most likely to be the best hitter on the Twins for a while, and, unlike prime Mauer, Sano provides value in the most-exciting, fan-friendly way: he hits massive dingers.
 
HIS FLAWS
The recent sexual assault allegations bring character concerns to the fore. Add that to existing questions, unfair or not, about his work ethic, and you’re looking at a player who may be unsympathetic to the Twins’ fanbase.
 
Jose Berrios
HIS CASE
Current Twins fans know how pitching-starved the team is. The pitching staff needs a savior for the team to take the next step foward, and if Berrios can become an ace, the fanbase will correctly understand how essential he is to the team's success.
 
HIS FLAWS
It’s hard for a pitcher to become the FotF [see Familiary]. Starters who have become FotFs are typically current or former Cy Young-caliber guys like Clayton Kershaw and Felix Hernandez. Berrios would have to be great, not just good, to become the FotF.
 
The Young Others
Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, heck even Mitch Garver are all a breakout away from being in contention for FotF. The problem is, in order to get there, one of these guys would have to outshine all the other candidates above or have some sort of transcendent, high-leverage moment late in the year or in the post-season to reach FotF heights.
 
The same would be needed from the prospects. Nick Gordon, Fernando Romero, and Stephen Gonsalves are not far from the majors, while Royce Lewis and the other, younger prospects are endearing themselves to the fanbase despite being years away yet. Secondary & tertiary prospects who are also near the bigs, like Brent Rooker, LaMonte Wade, and that guy that currently has you thinking, “He didn’t mention so-and-so?” Any of these guys would need to be insanely good right away, or would need some sort of famous,
playoff moment. 
So that’s it.
Those are all the faces. I’m not going any deeper on this roster (sorry Taylor Featherston, it’s just not gonna happen).
 
 
Who do you think the Twins next Face of the Franchise will be?

Most of you probably don't know that I am a high school math teacher and junior varsity baseball coach. Recently, a student of mine asked for me to write about the record breaking home run and strikeout rates from the 2017 season. I'm going to dive into those numbers for you today, but then also look at how these numbers are reflected in the projected 2018 opening day lineup for our beloved Twins.
 
League Overview
To get a good set of data, I took the K% (K/PA) and HR% (HR/PA) for the last twenty-one major league seasons. Below you will find a graphical summary (follow link for a closer look) of my findings:
You will notice that although both statistics see an increase over this timeframe, there is a much more significant increase in HR% versus K%. The most notable differences in both stats can be seen in the "statcast era" from 2014-2017 where exit velocity and launch angle data as literally been changing hitters approaches at the dish. Furthermore, it's been well documented that 2017 was a record breaking year for strikeouts and home runs.
 
Twins Lineup Implications
The last two seasons have seen the Minnesota Twins hit the 3rd (2017) and 4th (2016) most home runs in franchise history, which includes the 60 years they spent being known as the Washington Senators. Interestingly enough, they finished 2nd (2016) and 3rd (2017) most strikeouts in a single season over that same time. (If you're curious, the 2013 Twins struck out a franchise record 1,430 times but only hit 151 homeruns which is 70 less than their 2017 total. Ouch.) Comparably league wide, their 2016 and 2017 combined totals put them 15th in the league in homeruns and 6th in the league in strikeouts. Below shows where the each Twins player ended up in 2017 when comparing strikeout and homerun percentages:

Not surprisingly you will see Miguel Sano lead the team in both categories and Joe Mauer was at the bottom in both categories, among the regulars. In the middle, you see the average for 2017 was a 3.29 percent homerun rate and 21.6 percent strikeout rate. Ideally, we want our Twins to be closer to the Doziers, Rosario, Escobar, and Keplers of our lineup. Guys who finished below the league average in strikeout rate but above in homerun rate. Here are some of my takeaways:
Much ado has been made about Rosario’s plate discipline in 2017. Not only did MLB strikeout percentage drop from a career mark of 25.2 percent to 22.2 percent, but he also set a career high in homerun percentage. He will be very valuable to the Twins if 2017 wasn’t a fluke.
Admittedly, I am someone who is ready to see Vargas find another employer. So I was a little surprised to see how high his homerun percentage was in 2017. He can become value to the Twins or elsewhere if he can work on his plate discipline. That’s a big if.
Jason Castro was an excellent defensive catcher in 2017. He was pretty good behind the plate too. Though he lost some of his power he tied his career low in strikeout percentage and a career high in OBP. I’d love to see his power rebound a little, but most teams will take any productivity they can get out of their catcher.
I mentioned this earlier, but I really like where the core of Dozier, Rosario, Escobar, and Kepler fall. I think this is ideal for the middle of the order where these guys hit. Rosario and Escobar had broke out in 2017...is it time for Kepler?

This season is huge from the Twins. They have yet to extend any of their young talent and there haven’t been any rumblings about contract talks. Maybe the organization is waiting to see what happens with Yu first or maybe they are waiting to see what 2018 entails. We all know this is a huge year for our young core. We’ll be looking to see if guys like Escobar and Roario are for real, while looking at Kepler and Berrios as possible breakout stars.
What do you think about the data? Is it meaningful or are there other numbers we should be looking at here?

I do not know how to make this case for TD except in this short blog. I love the ability to discuss, debate and disagree without antagonism.
​As you have seen and responded to - I am the anti Darvish guy, at least in years 3 and beyond and the likes and the responses have been wonderful. This is what a sight like this is best at doing.
 
I choose to be the contrarian and I have tried to express that as many ways as I can. Should I pull all of my statements together here?
​But that is not my point. It is the wonderfully civil discourse that has happened that really pleases me. Do I care if you all agree? No. I just want an ability to challenge the prevailing attitude.
​I want to say no without being angry or responding to your disagreement in an angry way.
 
All of the comments are spread throughout the various posts and dialogues and I have truly enjoyed every argument and challenge.
​Thanks to all of you and to TD.

On Monday, Rhett Bollinger of MLB wrote that the Minnesota Twins are still more likely to upgrade their pitching rotation for 2018 through free agency than by trade.
 
And on Tuesday, MLB Trade Rumors reported off of a 1500 ESPN tweet that pitchers’ agents were getting the sense that the Twins (i.e., Derek Falvey and Thad Levine) were putting off talks until Yu Darvish announces his decision to sign.
 
Reading between the lines, one can interpret these reports to mean that the Twins have not been in much communication with free agent pitchers waiting to sign contracts this offseason.
 
But does an absence of communication mean that the Twins are failing to communicate?
 
A story Thursday in the New York Times (h/t dougd) suggests that Levine is one of the more skilled baseball executives in using alternative means to communicate (such as text messaging) with players, agents, or other major league personnel.

"...today, we negotiate hundreds of millions of dollars of contracts and make massive trades without ever picking up the phone and speaking directly with one another, let alone meeting face to face,” Levine said. “You kind of learn the personalities of guys—who needs a phone call, who can do it on text, who prefers emails, who likes to be lighthearted.
 
"The art of the negotiation has almost been trumped by the art of communication."  
This makes the news that the Twins have not met in person with Darvish much easier to take.
 
Meanwhile, back in December, the Twins were reportedly offered Gerrit Cole in exchange for prospects Nick Gordon, Zack Granite, and Tyler Jay, according to the news site Pirates Breakdown.
 
https://twitter.com/pbcbreakdown/status/940390540998250497
 
Many Twins fans, including myself, liked this trade idea. (See here, here, here, or here —and the proposals offered by Twins fans in these threads were actually not far off the mark in terms of value.)
 
The stat we know as WAR is not how we evaluate pitchers during the season, but it can be a good, broad gauge of general value.
 
In terms of fWAR, the two sides of a Cole/Gordon/Granite trade match up well. Fangraphs projects Cole to provide 3.8 fWAR in 2018; let's add 3.8 fWAR more for 2019. That makes 7.6 fWAR for the final two team-controlled seasons of Cole coming from Pittsburgh. How much fWAR will the Twins prospects provide? The 2017 midseason KATOH+ projections estimate that Granite will contribute 6.8 fWAR through his six team-controlled MLB seasons, while Gordon will accumulate 6.3 worth of fWAR across his six seasons. Throw in a generous 2.0 fWAR for Jay as a relief pitcher, and the total contribution of the prospects coming from the Twins is 15.1 fWAR.
 
In such a Gerrit Cole trade as proposed above, the Twins would trade away a future 15.1 fWAR in exchange for Cole’s 7.6 fWAR as a starter for the next two seasons.
 
That looks unequal, but posters on the Dozier trade discussion threads last winter found that MLB-for-prospect trades often lean heavily to one side in this way. A risk premium on the speculative nature of unpredictable prospects, perhaps.
 
In any case, the barstool argument in favor of the trade may be more effective than the mathematical or financial analysis. Gordon and Granite are good players, but their production can be replaced. The Twins have Jermaine Palacios and Royce Lewis playing shortstop in the minors behind Nick Gordon, and have Jorge Polanco and other capable shortstops on the Major League team already. As for Granite, I would not count on him getting enough playing time to contribute much fWAR anyway, the maturing young Twins outfield being what it is. And the bottom line is the Twins badly need starting pitching in 2018.
 
Now compare Cole to Darvish. Fangraphs projects Cole for 3.8 fWAR in 2018, while Darvish is projected only for 3.6 fWAR in 2018. Consider that Darvish’s contract will fetch more than $20 million per season for each of the next five or six seasons; Cole will not earn $20 million over the next two seasons together. Moreover, Cole might be motivated to pitch his best in order to increase his value in free agency following 2019.
 
Through the quiet offseason to this point, and assuming Pittsburgh is still interested in a trade, Cole has looked like a solid alternative to Yu Darvish, maybe even better. Cole is younger and will not tie up salary beyond 2019, and might even present a July trade opportunity for the Twins if the 2019 season goes sideways.
 
Beyond 2018 and 2019, the success of the Twins will depend on their ability to develop their own starting pitching. Darvish might help win some games in future seasons, but those wins will cost a lot of money, and possibly at the expense of extending one or two of the Twins young outfielders.
 
Levine’s "negotiation" with Darvish this winter has put me at ease somewhat. Levine's knowledge of Darvish from their days in Texas suggests to me that the Twins are not concerned about Darvish’s health, nor his motivation to pitch after he signs this nine-figure deal. And a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow; figure on that annual salary at the end of Darvish’s contract to not look so bad as it does now, once those latter years finally arrive.
 
I still prefer a trade for Cole, combined perhaps with a signing of Alex Cobb. But if the Twins really do sign Darvish — and my gut gives them a better than 50/50 chance at it — I imagine I will be amazed, thrilled, and fired up for the 2018 season. Such a signing will instantly put Minnesota almost on par with most other teams in the American League, and will give them a dependable arm for the next several seasons.
 
But it's Darvish’s decision to make. If Levine has misjudged Darvish and Darvish chooses to sign with another team, and other subsequent options fail to break for the Twins, the Twins would find themselves going into 2018 without the addition of a single starting pitcher. For a young, talented team that made a strong run in 2017, this would be quite a blow. To borrow a great metaphor from another TwinsDaily poster in another thread, the Twins are playing a game of musical chairs, and if Darvish signs with another team, the Twins might find themselves without a chair when the music stops.
 
Let's hope the personal relationship and commitment Thad Levine and Yu Darvish have together is real. My gut tells me it is.

Happy Holidays to everyone and welcome to my first Blog Entry here on Twins Daily. I am new to the writing/blogging scene (probably several years behind the curve) but I am not new to either baseball and the Minnesota Twins.
 
My background in baseball includes a playing career in both High School and College along with coaching in the collegiate ranks here in the Midwest. I currently expand my baseball background my reading about Owners, Sportswriters, Broadcasters, Managers and Individual Players that all contribute to the great game of baseball. I do it old school too - Hard Cover Books - none of this lightweight Kindle reading. I am also a current member of the American Baseball Coaches Association (ABCA) and will be attending this year's convention in Indianapolis, IN next week.
 
For my first entry, I kicked around the idea of a Minnesota Twins/Moneyball approach. It derives from my constant perusing around the Twins Daily comments section and seeing that fans (the majority of which) are unhappy with the current off-season direction we have gone. Coming off a playoff appearance, fans believed we were only a few pieces away from contending deep into the postseason. A strong off season and free agency were going to put us over the top. Unfortunately, the Twins haven't made a 'flashy' signing yet and lots of people have called the off season an utter disappointment.
 
I would like to try and bring people back down to realty in what the Twins are currently doing. I am not an insider to the Twins organization and can only speculate to the "Strategy".
 
I will say that I am a fan of the Duke, Pineda and Rodney signings so far. They aren't big and flashy, but they serve a purpose. Pineda - coming back from injury, once a highly touted pitching prospect that has flashed great promise is a great buy low signing. Rodney - has age against him but has proven to be a solid back of the bullpen arm and it's only on a one year deal. Duke - wasn't exactly the greatest when he came back from Tommy John surgery last season but again he is another buy low signing. With Duke, at the least, he is a stop gap till mid-season when Tyler Jay should hopefully be ready to join the Major League club.
 
These 3 signings are what Twins fans need to realize will continue to be the norm, it does not matter who the General Manager or Director of Baseball Operations is. All the wishing for us to sign Ohtani from Japan, was a pipe dream and was basically never going to happen. I've heard constant chatter about wanting the Twins to sign a big FA Power Relief Pitcher, that isn't going to happen either - plus it's not a financially sound decision to commit multiple years and big dollars to a relief pitcher...unless his name is Rivera or Hoffman. The Twins best chance to improve the Major League Club with Major League Talent is via a Trade. I was a big fan of going after Gerritt Cole, I thought we wouldn't have to give up as much in comparison to what a trade for Chris Archer would fetch. I'm still on the record for believing a trade will happen this off-season - just don't know when and for whom. I'm with the majority that believes it needs to be a Front Line Starter with multiple years of team control.
 
Fans tend to forget that the Minnesota Twins are in the bottom 3rd of Major League payrolls and we really have never deviated from that. Even if we were to commit an additional 30 million in payroll, we would still be in the bottom half of all Major League Baseball. Would that extra cash help us FINALLY beat the Yankees (in the playoffs) and their 200 Million Dollar payroll??? (Hard to say it would).
 
It is advantageous for the Twins to continue to find value in players that other teams don't see. We do not have the luxury (Time and/or Money) to throw at any and all Free Agents like the Yankees/Dodgers do. We've seen what other clubs have done, the Miami Marlins, seemingly finally putting down some money on players and then not seeing a return on their investment via wins or attendance. They preferred to then scrap the team and go back to their bare bones approach. Who is to say their approach is wrong...the Marlins have won 2 World Series since the last Twins World Series Victory.
 
In all of my rambling and banter - I believe the Twins, for 2018, have signed some bounce back players in preparation for the 2019 season. 2018 will be an additional year of development for the young core of Twins players. Cleveland will be the team to beat in the AL Central with the Wild Card being no gimme. From a Wins and Loss standpoint, I believe 2018 will be either a standstill or step backwards and most Twins fans will find that unacceptable coming off a playoff year.

I read the announcement that the Twins were going back on to WCCO and I was delighted. It did not get as much attention now as it would have 30 years ago (of course they were on WCCO then) but that is because TV and all the cable networks have changed the way that we enjoy the game.
​Growing up in Minneapolis in the 1950's I would take my little transistor radio to bed with me and hide under the pillows to listen to Earl Gillespie and Blaine Walsh tell me about the Milwaukee Braves game. In the dark those voices brought the game to life and I felt like I knew the announcers and the team. I even rooted for them when a foul ball was hit and their fishing net would come out of the broadcast booth to try and catch it.
 
They painted word pictures and made the game something that Television could not. Today we talk about pace of game and I, like so many others, really do mind that the games I listened to are so much longer - https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/1/29/7921283/baseball-game-length-visual-analysis In those years of transistor radio enjoyment the game was done in less that 2 1/2 hours. I would not have made it through the 3+ hours that the same game takes today - I would have fallen asleep or I would have been busted. And of course TV is part of the problem. No forced radio time outs they could put their ads in during the lulls that are part of the game. The lulls in activity did not stand out like they do on TV where they have to run the replays 5 or 6 times. The conversation in the booth seemed to involve me and I was sometimes sorry when they got cut off by the play on the field.
​When the Twins came I heard Halsey Hall who was always good for mangling the narrative, the smooth Ray Scott and Bob Wolff for 1961; replaced by Herb Carneal which made the broadcast the best ever! So baseball remains a radio sport for me, the best of all sports on radio. The chaos of moving parts in Hockey, Soccer, and Basketball do not lend themselves to thoughtful listening for me and I drift away quickly. Football is the only other sport I can listen to because like baseball there are lots of open moments between plays when the announcer and the analyst can talk and fill in the blanks. They enrich while the three continuous action sports are a race for the announcer to keep up.
 
I love the sound of a baseball game in the background whether driving or splitting wood. I enjoy it biking, hiking, sitting on the deck and watching the feeders. I can tune it out and still catch the sense of excitement when a play happens that I do not want to miss because the intensity of the voices. I know they will replay it in ways that make seem like I saw the play myself.
 
But then the Twins went on a search for something better - KSTP, TWTN, and KGQO. Since I am very rural I have no idea where the last two stations are and they do not broadcast out into the woods where I live. It is true that many of us in the rural landscape have television (even though I do not) and they get cable, but when you are in the rural areas there are farm chores, woodland chores, repairs to be made, things to do, even travel to be done and those are not places where you can watch TV.
 
When the Twins needed support in the past they had a ready support from the rural area, but then they built the new stadium and shut off the voice in the rural landscape. In recent years I was able to listen to an affiliate station in our area that carried the broadcast, but traveling further afield I do not have Sirius Radio so I searched, often in vain, for the Twins game. For a team that carries the State's name this is not acceptable.
 
So WCCO I am pleased that your are back. Not only can I now find the Twins, but you might even catch me listening to something else on your station, something I have not done since the Twins left. Will you bring back Danny and Corey or will there be a new voice? If I might suggest - Corey is quite good, but I think I have heard all of Danny's stories.

What a year!
2016 2017 changeActual Wins 59 85 +26
Improving by 26 games is quite a feat. So how did the 2017 Twins get there?
2016 2017 changeActual Wins 59 85 +26Pythag Wins 66 83 +17Luck -7 +2 +9
Okay, so the actual improvement was more like 17 games. The "Luck" here is shorthand for the difference between their wins and the wins we should have expected given their run totals--in other words, the advantage the Twins had over a team that scores runs in the average distribution. It is a measure of the luck involved in when the runs scored, not in whether the runs scored.
 
Wait, so one-third of the 2017 Twins performance improvement was due to luck? Should we despair that the success is illusory and thus expect the Twins to sink back to mediocrity? Not quite. The 2016 Twins were quite unlucky, so it isn't bad that they changed that. You can't count on the number being much higher than +2 in 2018, but neither should we assume it will certainly be lower. Typical division winners outperform their Pythagorean record, and so the Twins should hope to do so in 2018. That this "luck" number is merely +2 should calm the Twins fans' insecurities; the Royals has a luck number of +8 in falling short of .500, and so Royals fans should acquiesce to their unavoidable rebuild period.
 
So enough about "luck". Where did the Twins' actual improvement in run-scoring and run-preventing achievements come from?
2016 2017 changeLuck -7 +2 +9Hitters WAR 17.0 28.7 +11.7Pitchers WAR 1.8 7.0 +5.2
So three-fourths of the Twins' actual improvement was in their hitters. Let's take a closer look at it. Note that I am evaluating their hitters with hitting, baserunning, and fielding put together.
WAR 2016 2017 changeHitters 16.0 24.9 +8.9 CF Buxton 1.9 5.1 +3.2C Suzuki=>Castro 0.4 2.5 +2.13B Sano 0.8 2.5 +1.7SS Polanco 0.6 2.1 +1.51B Mauer 2.3 3.4 +1.1LF Rosario 1.1 1.7 +0.6DH Grossman 0.3 0.8 +0.5RF Kepler 2.1 2.4 +0.32B Dozier 6.5 4.4 -2.1CI Escobar -0.6 1.3 +1.94O Santana=>Granite -1.3 0.3 +1.6BC Centeno=>Gimenez 0.8 0.7 -0.1CI Plouffe=>Vargas 0.4 0.3 -0.1MI Nunez=>Adrianza 1.5 0.9 -0.6
A nine-win improvement from your starting lineup is excellent, and the bench even improved a bit. Do you think that the Twins did nothing last offseason? Looking at the above, I see ten moves the Twins made (or avoided making) that altogether led to this twelve-win improvement.
 
Moves that worked
 
Staying committed to Buxton, Polanco, and Rosario: The Twins stuck with Byron Buxton through a rough May and June. It would have been defensible to have demoted him to work on his hitting in AAA. The Terry Ryan regime might have done just that, but Derek Falvey and Thad Levine stuck with him, most notably because his fielding was not just above average but the best in the league. In the end, Buxton refined his swing and started hitting like his promise always showed.
 
In the same vein, the Twins stayed consistent with Jorge Polanco, who spent the entire year as the starting shortstop. While he didn't have defensive talent to help him along, the confidence in his ability paid off as his hitting skyrocketed in the second half. There was pressure to demote Polanco, but faith in him was paid off well.
 
Similarly, Rosario found a better stroke and contributed more than most thought reasonable to hope for.
 
Replacing Kurt Suzuki with Jason Castro: Passing on extending Suzuki, the Twins figured they could do better, and did so with Jason Castro. Castro is under contract through 2019, so the move will continue to pay off.
 
Keeping Sano at third base instead of DH: There was fear that Sano in the field at third base could be a liability, but he has done quite well there. The Twins definitely expect more production from Sano's bat, but keeping him at third base should be at least the short-term plan, assuming his current shin injury is not an impediment for doing so in 2018.
 
Not trading Dozier: While his production declined a bit from a stellar 2016, Dozier was still the third-best of all the Twins. The leading rumor last year was that the Dodgers would have traded Jose De Leon, but the Twins wanted more. That judgment paid off, as we can only assume that the Twins would not have found most of Dozier's 4.4 WAR anywhere else.
 
Not giving up on Mauer against LHP: Like most Twins fans, I was disappointed in Mauer's overall hitting in the years following the concussion, and I was clamoring for them to platoon him. Instead, he hit a respectable .750 OPS against lefties, and more, there was no obvious choice to pair with as a platoon. The Twins should continue to decrease Mauer's appearances against lefties, but the urgency to make this platoon a priority is eased.
 
Keeping Eduardo Escobar despite a poor 2016. Escobar as a bench player contributed as the Twins hoped and not as they feared. While he might not play much again at shortstop, his bat is enough to warrant keeping on as a corner infielder.
 
Moves that bombed
 
Sticking with Grossman at DH: The Twins thought Grossman could hit, so they gave him lots more chances at DH. Well, we should now realize that he can hit...sort of. The Twins could have added a win or two with a better DH.
 
Giving chances to Vargas: I think we now know that Vargas is not a major league DH. Could Falvey and Levine have come to this conclusion a bit sooner?
 
Not bolstering the bench: While improvements here would have been marginal, the right set of moves may have added a win or two.
 
On to the pitchers.
2016 2017 change5 Starters 1.5 7.4 +5.9Berrios -1.7 1.7 +3.4Duffey=>Colon -1.6 0.1 +1.7Santana 3.8 4.6 +0.8Nolasco=>Mejia 0.4 0.8 +0.4Gibson 0.6 0.2 -0.4
Pitching was disappointing, but there is a bit of hope in that they indeed improved, and two young pitchers clearly took steps forward.
 
Moves that worked
 
Not trading Santana: My choice for team MVP, J. Ervin Santana was the only comfortable part of this rotation. The Twins could have traded him, as he isn't a legitimate top-tier ace, but they would have been lost without him.
 
Committing to Berrios: This was an easier decision given his solid start to the season, but they could have sent him to Rochester to start the year--and perhaps Terry Ryan would have done so. Instead, he now looks like a real pitcher who is ready to show the rest of the league his mettle.
 
Giving lots of chances to Mejia: While Mejia's WAR is disappointing from a competition perspective, it is in line with a player in his stage of development. Without starting Mejia early and often the Twins might have hurt themselves, but more importantly, Mejia's development in the majors should give him more confidence and experience to improve in 2018.
 
Signing Bartolo Colon: While his last month showed us that the Twins shouldn't press their luck, Colon gave the Twins just a dash of added success, however meek, that wasn't available anywhere else. Dillon Gee was just not going to get it done.
 
Raising the standard past Duffey: When you are used to seeing poor pitching, Tyler Duffey might have looked promising, but he really isn't. There's a chance he can improve going forward, but it isn't a big one.
 
Moves that bombed
Signing Nolasco and extending Hughes: Yes, this was an old decision, but the Twins paid too much for Phil Hughes (in dollars+years) and Ricky Nolasco (in losing Alex Meyer). If they could have found a better free agent pitcher in 2014-2016 to help them this year, it would have been a bump up in the win column.
 
Not having an ace: Easier said than done, but imagine how better off the Twins would be with an additional pitcher to start above Santana. All the other playoff teams had at least one top-tier starter, but the Twins are now stuck without one. I can't say that there was a move available to address this, but it remains an albatross the Twins will carry for the foreseeable future.
 
And the bullpen:
2016 2017 changeRelievers 2.2 2.9 +0.8Tonkin=>Busenitz -0.4 0.7 +1.1Milone=>Breslow -0.7 -0.1 +0.6Rogers 0.6 1.1 +0.5Kintzler 1.0 1.1 +0.1May=>Belisle -0.1 0.0 +0.1Dean=>Duffey -0.4 -0.4 0.0Boshers 0.0 -0.1 -0.1Abad=>Hildenberger 1.0 0.8 -0.2Pressly 1.0 -0.2 -0.8
The Twins couldn't even get three wins-above-replacement from their top 9 relievers--which is particularly problematic when you remember that a replacement-level team would win only 45 or so games.
 
Moves that worked
 
Calling up Hildenberger and Busenitz: These two relievers outperformed all but two of the Twins' bullpen members, and did so in limited playing time. Hopefully this teaches the Twins a lesson--but it may be more apt to say that Falvey and Levine are teaching the Twins this lesson already: trust your young players if you believe they are good. 0.5 WAR replacement players are just that: replacable and often replaced. Why replace them with other scrap-heap signings and waiver claims when you could replace them with young, ready-enough talent?
 
Moves that bombed
 
Sticking with Pressly, Boshers, Breslow, and Duffey: These pitchers should have very little shot at a competitive team's bullpen. They just don't seem good enough, and the latter three are in danger of being designated for assignment--if not this offseason, at some point in the future when the Twins find relievers who are worthy. Particularly disappointing is Tyler Duffey, whose transition to the bullpen has been frustrating for himself and Twins coaches alike.
 
Not finding other bullpen help: The Twins could have spent some millions improving their bullpen with options better than Belisle. The biggest flaws in the bullpen this year were injuries to Wimmers, Perkins, May, Chargois, O'Rourke, and Jay, though of course this is not reflective of a move that worked or failed; it's just too bad the Twins didn't have any other better options to turn to.
 
Signing Matt Belisle: Feel free to object to this one, as I agree Belisle was one of the Twins' only good options in the bullpen--but they could have and should have done better.
 
Becoming a real competitor
 
Reflecting on all of this, here are some moves that you might want to put into your off-season blueprint. The Twins need to get to 92 wins to have a good chance to beat the Indians and win the division in 2018, and it may take more than that. It is a lot easier to get there from 83 pythagorean wins than in any of the five seasons previous, so now's the time to go for it.
 
Expect more from Buxton and Sano: The Twins two most promising players underperformed as hitters in 2018: Buxton for the first half, and Sano with injuries and a minor slump. These two are on a excellent trajectory and still have a ton of promise. Neither of them should be a disappointment to anyone, and I am hoping for 10-12 WAR from them in 2018.
 
Keep Brian Dozier and Ervin Santana: These are the kind of players the Twins should want to acquire, not trade away. Should the Twins keep them till free agency, they can make them each a qualifying offer and thereafter win an additional draft pick, which is a better outcome than trading them for B-level prospects. They are both solid players, and I hope for them to repeat their 9 WAR together in 2018.
 
Sign or trade for a designated hitter: I do not like the idea of moving Sano to DH and relying on Escobar or converting Polanco or a prospect shortstop to a poor-hitting third baseman. It would be far easier to find some other upgrade at DH than it would to commit to prospects at shortstop/third base for the next few years. As long as Sano is near-average in the field at third base, let him stay there. Besides, Polanco projects as a better second baseman than third baseman, which the Twins will need after Dozier leaves in free agency for 2019. Keeping Sano at third keeps Escobar as a bench bat and infield fill-in and descreases the need to play players like Adrianza or Goodrum. A capable DH should be able to increase output by 1.5 WAR next year over Grossman.
 
Sign an elite reliever: It is going to be easier to sign a reliever here than a starter, and the Twins have to get better at pitching anywhere. Signing Wade Davis, for example, would improve the bullpen tremendously and let the Twins use Hildenberger, Rogers, Buesnitz, and players coming back from injury in roles they can bulid success in. Wade Davis has achieved 3 WAR several times in his career, and we could hope for the same impact, especially if used wisely.
 
Attempt to trade for an ace starter if it is posslble: This is a tough sell, so I won't belabor it. Hope for it, but it is unlikely. The Twins can't sell the farm for this, so it probably won't happen, but it is the biggest area the Twins could improve. They should at least try. As for signings, I'd make a semi-serious offer for Darvish or even Arrieta, but it likely won't have enough years or dollars to get either.
 
Plan on trusting young starters over any free agents: While some may think the Twins should sign a free-agent pitcher, the risk of another Nolasco contract is large. Even if the Twins find a pitcher better than Nolasco and on par or even a bit better than Kyle Gibson, it would not appreciably improve the team, as the Twins already have six starters at this level: Mejia, Stephen Gonsalves, Aaron Slegers, Fernando Romero, Felix Jorge, and of course, Gibson. You can hope for 1.0-1.5 WAR out of any of these players; why go hunting for expensive free agents for it? Perhaps one of them will break through and deliver 3 WAR. So altogether, I'm hoping for an increase of 4 WAR out of the three, four, and five starting pitchers even with no trades or free agent signings.
 
Plan on trusting young relievers over inexpensive free agents: The Matt Belisle signing is not one the Twins should repeat. While they should consider signing pitchers who are a step up from Belisle, signing a pitcher at Belisle's level (or even extending Belisle himself) is too weak an ambition to improve the team. The Twins have already shown confidence in Hildenberger and Busenitz, which should continue. The previously mentioned Perkins, May, Chargois, O'Rourke, and Jay are all options to help the Twins bullpen in 2018, as well as Jake Reed and John Curtiss after them. The Twins' farm system might be considered strong in relief pitching and 2018 is the year to start gaining from it. From the two through six relievers, the Twins can get 5 WAR better from just small improvements from each spot. One or two relievers will get worse and one or two may break through, but the 2017 baseline is so low that it will look like a new bullpen altogether in the aggregate.
 
Consider signing or trading for a bench bat, preferably outfield: Assuming that Rosario or Zack Granite can play center field in a pinch, it might make sense to find an corner outfielder with some pop against left-handers. Even without a full-time platoon, such a player would be valuable off the bench. The Twins were hoping they could ask this out of Grossman, but it seems that they don't trust him to play defense regularly. Furthermore, neither Rosario and Kepler should be taken for granted; if either get injured or go into an extended slump, someone will need to step in. Chris B. Young or Rajai Davis look to be the best free agent options that somewhat fit. Perhaps the trade market might have a younger or better right-handed hitter. An increase of 1 WAR is reachable here.
 
So all of these realistic, affordable decisions could result in an increase of 17 WAR, to bring the projected win total from 83 pythagorean wins (that is, wins with 0 luck) to 100, and it can be achieved with a modest payroll increase, few or no trades, and keeping the above average farm system going. Now I am not claiming that any of these projected performances are certain or even very likely. Even if the Twins make all these moves, players will get injured, slump, or just trail off into yearlong struggles. However, if the Twins execute an offseason plan to shoot for 100 wins, there's a chance they get 92 or 95, or even 102.
 
The time for the Twins to have low expectations is over. The Twins should be aiming for 100 wins, and they can do it with a little gumption and strategy.

On Monday June 8, 2015 the Houston Astros franchise changed. Really, every franchise across Major League Baseball changed as they added an influx of new talent through the First-Year player draft. Houston though, selected a shortstop from LSU with the second overall pick, and Alex Bregman set forth on a path that would greatly enhance the Astros future.
 
In this same draft, the Twins would select 6th overall. Following the selections of three collegiate players and two high-schoolers, they chose left-handed pitcher Tyler Jay. While Jay had served only as a closer at the University of Illinois, the thought was that he could be developed into a top tier starter for Minnesota. It was considered somewhat of a puzzling pick at the time, and Jay has yet to bear fruit at the big league level. That said, the jury isn't out on him yet, but that also isn't the story here.
 
The 2015 draft had plenty of talent throughout that first round. Dansby Swanson led a strong Braves system for some time, Brendan Rodgers looks the part of a game-changer for the Rockies, and Andrew Benintendi would've been the American League Rookie of the Year had Aaron Judge not existed. All of those things are true, but the focus here is on Bregman, his position, and how he ties into the Minnesota Twins.
 
Drafted as a shortstop out of Louisiana State, Bregman entered an organization that employed a 20 year-old Rookie of the Year named Carlos Correa. While Correa is a bigger shortstop at 6'4" 215 lbs, he's handled the position just fine defensively, and his .863 OPS is an incredible asset at one of baseball's most demanding positions. The Astros though weren't only rich in terms of Correa up the middle, there was a glut of options. Jose Altuve is going to hold down second base until he retires, and the combination of Marwin Gonzalez and Jonathan Villar both looked more than capable for Houston.
 
In 2016, Bregman played in 49 games for Houston, spending just a total of 146 games on the farm. His .891 OPS at the minor league level was more than suggestive of a new challenge. At the big league level, Bregman debuted with a .791 OPS that was bolstered by strong slugging numbers. The K/BB ratio (52/15) left plenty to be desired, and both his average (.264) and OBP (.313) sagged because of it. With so much raw talent however, the belief was that 2017 could represent a breakout year.
 
After a spring training that included time with Team USA during the World Baseball Classic, Bregman was set to be the Astros every day third basemen. Recently acquired Yuli Gurriel would move to first, and the Houston infield was set. In 155 games this season, Bregman posted an .827 OPS and turned in a respectable 2:1 K/BB rate (97/55). His average and OBP jumped significantly, and he became yet another asset for the Astros. Drafted as a shortstop, he played third, short, and second base in Houston during 2017.
 
Looking at the Astros top 30 prospects as ranked by MLB.com currently, their 12th, 17th, and 24th best players are all shortstops. Despite having arguably the best infield in baseball, there's still talent behind them. This is where the Twins correlation comes into play.
 
With plenty of talk regarding the selection of Royce Lewis with the #1 overall pick this season, Minnesota now boasts shortstops with it's #1, 2, 5, and 26 best prospects per MLB.com. The idea that there is a need to figure out where the can all play becomes immediately laughable. What Bregman and the Astros have once again displayed, is that talent can slot in anywhere.
 
More often than not, shortstops and centerfielders are among the best players on a 25 man roster. Minnesota boasts an elite centerfielder in Byron Buxton, but there's plenty of room for a talent rich farm system to bear fruit at the next level. Lewis, Nick Gordon, Wander Javier, Jermaine Palacios, Luis Arraez, and Jelfry Marte all working out for the Twins would be among the best problems to have. Although there's only room for one person to play shortstop at a time, generating a 25 man roster with the best overall talent you possess is a great blueprint for success.
 
At some point, Minnesota will need to figure out how Jorge Polanco, Brian Dozier, Nick Gordon, and Royce Lewis can all coexist. There's a second wave of talent behind them that can factor in soon enough as well. While that is something Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will be tasked with deciphering, it's hardly a problem that the Twins would rather not have.
 
Entering the 2015 Major League Baseball draft, Alex Bregman probably had dreams of making a deep jump throw from the hole a la Derek Jeter. When he was taken by the Astros, he probably considered the current state of the infield being locked down up the middle for some time to come. On October 30th 2017 however, he's got dreams of two incredible throws to home from the hot corner, and a World Series ring well within his sights.
 
Drafting for talent will never hurt you in baseball, and both the Astros and Twins would love to have a plethora of Alex Bregman's lined up to fill a spot.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

To Extend, or Not to Extend ... The Case for Brian Dozier
 
 
The 2018 Twins offseason will undoubtedly have many questions. The usual "will they, won't they" Hot Stove talk of free agent signings, the Winter Meetings and trade talk circulating. While there is no doubt the Twins have holes to fill (Relief pitching, Starting pitching, maybe a right handed power bat, etc.), one question seems to loom large: What is the future of Brian Dozier?
 
Dozier entered the 2017 season for the Twins, his age 30 season, and once again put up stellar numbers across the board. He lead the team in WAR (wins above replacement) with a mark of 4.9, hit 34 home runs, was a catalyst out of the leadoff spot and makes a strong case for most valuable player on the club. He was undoubtedly the heart and soul of a Twins team that, at times in prior seasons, has desperately needed strong veteran leadership.
 
That said, the 2018 season is the last of Dozier's 4 year, 20 million dollar extension he signed prior to the 2015 season, and the Twins second bagger will enter another offseason (probably) with more trade talk and contract extension speculation. Not knowing how Dozier would like to handle the next season, I can assume three scenarios how the organization can proceed with Dozier this offseason -
Trade Brian Dozier

Certainly a case can be made for trading Dozier. His trade value is high, the Twins need starting pitching and if you could find a willing trade partner to make you a deal you couldn't refuse, why not? Reality is, the market for Second baseman is weak. Most clubs, while they value the position, hold the prospect of a power hitting 2B as a luxury. There is a reason, for both clubs, that Dozier didn't move last offseason to the Dodgers. The Twins needed more than Jose De Leon, and the Dodgers were not going to move their untouchable prospects (Buehler, Verdugo, Bellinger) to aquire Dozier. Ergo, no deal. The situation is likely the same this offseason.
Hang on and let him leave a Free Agent

Another plausible route, the Twins may view Dozier as an important, but expendable cog in the lineup that is getting younger and more athletic every year. With Dozier entering the year at 31 years old, perhaps they ride one last year and hope he turns in another solid performance (maybe the playoffs?) and mutually part ways with Dozier, him exploring his first taste of Free Agency and the Twins, likely, hoping for a compensation pick. I would handicap this particular scenario on the low end of the spectrum, the Twins seem to value Dozier and his intangibles, an unclear replacement in the minor leagues is not looming (Nick Gordon doesn't seem to be pushing the door on Dozier, though turning in a solid season himself), and the value attached to a compensation pick is nominal, especially to a club that fancies themselves contenders.
Extend Brian Dozier before Free Agency

This is the meat and potatoes argument. There are a lot of reasons to extend Dozier beyond the 2018 season, but the new regime will have to look at the value Dozier will provide rather than pay him for the value he has provided. To break that down, we'll have to do a little research.
 
 
A Case Study in Second Baseman
 
First, I think we need to understand how rare Second basemen like Brian Dozier are, not from a power or intangible standpoint, but from an age standpoint relative to their contract and statistics.
 
Only 8 teams in the MLB show a second baseman over the age of 30 in their depth chart as a projected starter. For the purpose of this article I've take the liberty to exclude a few players from the conversation:
 
(Super) Utility Players- Ben Zobrist
 
Utility Players- Danny Espinosa, Chase Utley, Jason Kipnis (Ok, I know, Utley isn't exactly a Utility player, but hes no starting 2B either)
 
Free Agents- Neil Walker
 
While all of the players above are over the age of 30, none of them is an expected starting 2B, with the exception of perhaps Neil Walker. Without knowing his future, or where he'll end up, I've left him out.
 
 
So, where does that leave us? With 8 players (Dozier not included):
Brandon Phillips, 36 - LAA, 6 year/$72.5MM, expires end of 2018
Ian Kinsler, 35 - DET Club Option, 2018, $12MM
Dustin Pedroia, 34 - BOS, 8 year/$110MM, expires end of 2022
Robinson Cano, 34 - SEA, 10 year/$240MM, expires end of 2024
Daniel Murphy, 32 - WAS, 3 year/$37.5MM expires end of 2018
Logan Forsythe, 31 - LAD, 2 year/10.25MM expires end of 2018
Jed Lowrie, 33 - OAK, 3 year/$23MM expires end of 2019

From here, we have to break it down a little further into categories of type-player. I separated by All Star, MLB regular and stopgap option. In the "All Star" section, Robinson Cano and Dustin Pedroia are headliners both being paid well into their late 30's early 40's, but we can also include Daniel Murphy and Ian Kinsler in the category, both are worthy for argument. Brian Dozier would fit in this category as well.Brandon Phillips is an aging, but competent MLB regular second baseman, so we can discuss him in further detail also.
 
The Stopgap players I've included are Forsythe and Lowrie. For the most part, Forsythe has been a disappointment in LA this season, while I wouldn't be shocked if the Dodgers brought him back, I would be if he were starting. The ageless Chase Utley has been serviceable, but father time has to catch up at some point, right? I expect the Dodgers to be big players for Ian Kinsler over the offseason, as they would more than happily trade some bobbles for the $12 Million he's owed. Jed Lowrie is also listed here, while he could be said to be a decent MLB regular, I'm not convinced there is a club outside of Oakland (maybe San Diego) that would be willing to plug him in the everyday lineup at this point. Franklin Barreto is looming as his replacement in Oakland, also. We would be remiss to include these two as worthy comparisons for Dozier.
 
We need to be honest with ourselves, the Twins will not (nor do I believe they should) give Dozier a contract like Robinson Cano's monster deal, or Pedroia's slightly less goliath contract. Regardless of the numbers these two great players have put up, the Twins will not match that type of contract. For fun, I've compared their stats anyway.
 
The more interesting comparisons happen when you look at Daniel Murphy, Ian Kinsler and (somewhat) Brandon Phillips.
 
Daniel Murphy
Age 30-32 Slash line avg. .316/.365/.529 avg HR/YR 20.6 fWAR 4.1

Murphy seems to be a good analog for Dozier-esque career progression. Besides a cup of coffee in his age 24 season, Murphy debuted as a regular at age 26, with good - not great - numbers until age 28. Murphy put up two solid seasons in his age 28 and 29 seasons. In his age 30 season, he again slashed very well (.281/.322/.449) and hit a career high 14 home runs, followed by an amazing World Series run by the Mets where Murphy was undoubtedly be biggest offensive factor.
The Mets decided to let Murphy leave in free agency (It was reported Murphy wanted to remain a Met, and his loyalty likely cost him suitors) and eventually signed with the Washington Nationals. His 3 year contract for $37.5 million dollars is considered a bargain, considering the value ($44.2MM fValue in '16, $34.7MM fValue in '17)*
 
*fValue is a Fangraphs value metric that measures the amount of money the players WAR stat would convert in free agency
 
Ian Kinsler
Age 30-34 Slash line avg. .278/.333/.434 avg HR/YR 17.6 fWAR 4.12
Age 35 and over Slash line avg. .236/.313/.412 avg HR/YR 22 fWAR 2.4

Ok, admittedly, its a little misleading to include a 35 and over category that includes a single season, but this is where it starts to become a little less cloudy. Kinsler, like Murphy and Dozier, didn't really emerge to be a dominant MLB starter until his age 26 season (Kinsler debuted at 24 and played the majority of full seasons at age 24 and 25). He was one of the top second basemen in the game for several seasons, including his age 29 season (trend starting to form, here) where he collected an amazing 7.2 fWAR. Kinsler continued to be solid through his age 30-34 seasons, compiling an average fValue score of $31.32 - a definite bargain when considering his 5 year, $75 million dollar contract he'd signed with the Rangers following his age 29 season.
While his 2.4 fWAR in 2017 is respectable, Kinsler is an elite defender at second base. His UZR and DRS numbers are at or near the top of all eligible second basemen. For contrast, while Dozier isn't a poor defender, per se, his defensive metrics aren't nearly as dominating as Kinsler. Dozier's WAR numbers come predominately from his bat, Kinsler was largely saved by the glove.
 
Brandon Phillips
Age 30-34 Slash line avg. .280/.324/.410 avg HR/YR 14.8 fWAR 3.12
Age 35 and over Slash line avg. .288/.320/.416 avg HR/YR 12 fWAR 1.3

Again, there is no Brian Dozier clone (that I'm aware of...) and Phillips is not the greatest analog, but they do share some things in common. Phillips was an All Star, making the All Star team 3 times in his career, playing serviceable (and probably flashier than necessary) defense at second base. The biggest commonality is the teams they play for, and this is why I've included Phillips in this discussion.
Phillips, while never the "bopper" Dozier is, but he was and still is, wildly popular in Cincinnati. He was rewarded for his loyalty and stellar play of his 20's and early 30's by signing a 6 year, 72.5 Million dollar contract to play out the rest of his career in the bandbox that is Great America Smallpark, uhhh I mean, Ballpark.
We can use Phillips as a precautionary tale of buying too many years into the natural declining mid-late 30's.
 
But, Robinson Cano and Dustin Pedroia?
 
Yes, I have purposely omitted Cano and Pedroia from the conversation, more because (A.) the Red Sox and Mariners forked out a ton of money to lock them away, something the Twins (I can say with 99.8% certainty) will not do with Dozier and (B.) the more research I did, the more I found the same patterns as with Murphy, Kinsler and Phillips, anyway. For instance:
fWAR and fValue numbers

Murphy (30-32 seasons) 4.1 fWAR avg. fValue $32.86
Kinsler (30-34 seasons) 4.12 fWAR avg fValue $31.32
Phillips (30-34 seasons) 3.12 fWAR avg fValue $23.26
Pedroia (30-34 seasons) 3.5 fWAR avg fValue $27.55
Cano (30-34 seasons) 4.46 fWAR avg fValue $34.56
 
Phillips (35 and over) 1.3 fWAR avg fValue $10.35 (41% decrease in fWAR, 44% decrease fValue)
Kinsler (35 and over) 2.4 fWAR avg fValue $19.00 (58% decrease in fWAR, 60% decrease fValue)
 
How does Brian Dozier Stack up?
Career Slash (age 25-30) .248/.322/.441 avg HR/YR 25.16 fWAR 3.47

Dozier stacks up remarkably well with this group, putting up similar slash and WAR values, most of the value tied into his age 29 (2016, 5.9 WAR) and age 30 (2017, 4.9 WAR) seasons. Dozier enters his age 31 season, and using his peers as comparison, he should have a few good/great seasons ahead of him.
 
 
The lesson, when viewing a possible Dozier contract extension this off season, is to avoid paying for prior accomplishments as much as possible and anticipate the value you will receive for the remainder of the term. Easier said than done, I know.
 
The Twins, if looking to sign Brian Dozier in the off season, should look to lock him for his age 31-34 seasons. A three year deal, four max. Buying into the age 35 and over years is buying into decline, and ultimately a very expensive, less athletic utility player.
 
Obviously this analysis is in a vacuum, not taking into consideration factors like payroll variations and what players are coming off the books, and priorities in the organization (i.e. investing money in pitching, other positions, etc.). However, the general trend in modern second baseman in Doziers talent bracket lends itself to buying into the age 30-34 seasons and avoiding the age 35 and up. Second base, even with the Chase Utley Rule, is still a fairly fragile position that tends to decline faster than other positions (other than catcher). With Doziers' track record, talent and intangible leadership skills, having Dozier for the next 3 or 4 seasons to lead the next crop of young talented Twins may be just the type of move the Twins need. As long as we're mindful not to pay for the Dozier of 2017 in 2022.

Copied from my blog: https://takesallkinds.wordpress.com/ which has embeds and such.
 
While watching the Twins invariably blow their 3-0 first inning lead to the Yankees yesterday, it got me thinking of how horrible it is to be a Minnesota sports fan. As I’m sure you know, the majority of sports fandom is based on where you’re from. A person who grew up in St. Louis, will obviously be more drawn to the local teams. Unfortunately, I was born in Minnesota and spent my formative years in the 90’s. I will argue that no fan base has had their heart ripped out more over the last 25 years than Minnesota. I was so distraught yesterday, I started compiling a list in my head…. which led to this post. Below is a blow-by-blow account of everything Minnesota has done to be horrible since I’ve been old enough to keep track….
 
1989 – Vikings trade half their franchise for Herschel Walker – This trade was so bad that it has its own wikipedia page… So bad that it has its own 30 for 30 titled ‘The Great Trade Robbery’… The Vikings got a 27 year old up running back and the Cowboys ended up with 3 Super Bowl titles. The Vikings gave up 5 players and 8 draft picks (Emmitt Smith, Darren Woodson, etc.)…. seriously…. Fun fact… Herschel never ran for 1000 years in a season for Minnesota and averaged 4.2 yards per carry. This is my first Vikings memory and they only go downhill from here…
 
1993 – Minnesota North Stars move to Dallas – The US Hockey Hall of Fame is literally in Minnesota… almost half of the 1980 miracle on ice team was from Minnesota…. They were two years removed from the Stanley Cup Finals…. Ugh, I’m still pissed.
 
1996 – Twins – Kirby Puckett goes blind – Kirby woke up one day in March and found he couldn’t see. After some tests it was determined he had a glaucoma. After multiple surgeries, his vision didn’t return and he was forced to retire. The sad part is that this might have been able to be prevented with regular eye exams. The Twins haven’t been the same since he left. After he retired, he had sever domestic issues that called into question his character. I will say this… I miss Kirby the ball player. Such a giant part of my childhood, over in a day by something that may have been preventable.
 
1998 – Vikings lose NFC Championship Game in Crushing Fashion… The Vikings rolled all year to a 15-1 record. Their kicker had not missed a kick all year (perfect on field goals and extra points)…. of course… all the Vikings have to do to go to the Super Bowl is to make a 39 yard field goal… What happens… he misses it. Of course. However, the Vikings got the ball back with 49 seconds left… instead of playing to win… the Vikings take a knee on 3rd and 7… and then promptly lose in overtime. I could write a million words on this… No Vikings loss has hurt more and was my first exposure to what it means to be a Vikings fan. It hurt too much to look up the actual video so this will have to do…
2000 – Glen Taylor gets caught making a secret contract with Joe Smith (JOE FRICKING SMITH) – The Timberwolves were fined a record $3.5 million and were stripped of their next 5 first round draft picks… this wasted the prime of Kevin Garnett. The Wolves are just now starting to recover.
 
2001 – Vikings lose 41-0 to Giants in NFC Championship Game – After starting the season 11-2, Super Bowl fever was in full effect. The Vikings then promptly lost the final 3 games and lost home field advantage for the entire playoffs to the New York Giants who finished 12-4. After taking care of New Orleans in their first playoff game, hopes were high that the Vikes had righted the ship and even came into the game favored on the road… Unfortunately, they promptly suffered their first ever playoff shutout loss and worst playoff loss in franchise history. I quit watching at halftime when it was 34-0. For context, at halftime… the 34 points by the Giants were their season high.
 
2002 – MLB tries to contract the Twins – The Twins were so ineptly run by owner Carl Pohlad (who started his fortune by foreclosing on people during the depression) that MLB thought they were better off by shutting down the franchise.
 
2003 – Vikings miss the playoffs on final play versus Arizona – The 2003 Vikings started 6-0 and were the clear Super Bowl favorites… However, the season started going pear shaped as they kept losing to bad teams (fun fact, they lost to every team that finished 4-12 that year). Coming into the final game, all the Vikings had to do was to beat the 3-13 Arizona Cardinals and they were playoff bound… Well, of course… Arizona wins on the last play of the game. The receiver clearly didn’t get two feet in-bounds on the catch, but was ruled that he was pushed mid-air by the defense so a touchdown was awarded… this was such garbage that the NFL has since changed the rule… Only the Vikings could lose this way.
2003 – Present – Twins lose to Yankees in the playoffs – Here is a quick history of this series in the playoffs…
2003 Twins lose to Yankees 3 games to 1
2004 Twins lose to Yankees 3 games to 1
2009 Twins lose to Yankees 3 games to 0
2010 Twins lose to Yankees 3 games to 0
2017 Twins lose to Yankees 1 game to 0
 
All told, that adds up to the Twins going 2 – 13 versus the Yankees. Ugly. Then to make it worse, the great Joe Posnanski has these fun facts…
 
“The Yankees’ record against the Twins since 2002 — and this includes four soul-crushing postseason series for Minnesota — is now 89-33. Repeating: New York is now 89-33 against Minnesota since 2002. That’s a .730 winning percentage — basically three wins out of four. That would calculate to 118 wins in a 162-game season.”
 
2009 Brett Favre Interception in NFC Championship Game – Again, the Vikings started out hot on their way to a 10-1 record. The started to slow at the end of the year going 2-3 over their last 5 games, but still good enough to win their division and get a first round bye. They crushed the Cowboys in the division round 34-3 which activated Vikings fever. They then traveled to New Orleans for the Championship game. The Vikes played horrible with 5 turnovers… but somehow, the game was tied 28-28 when the Vikings received a Saints punt at the 21 yard line with 2:49 left. The Vikings made it within field goal range with 19 seconds left…. in true Minnesota fashion, they quickly got a 12 men on the field penalty which moved the ball back to the 38. The sensible thing to do would be to run a quick throw or run to the middle of the field to set up the winning field goal…. Instead…. the Vikings called some crazy roll-out pass play which led to what is referred to ‘The Brett Favre Interception’… Watch for yourself…. This is inexplicable.
2014 – Adrian Peterson Beats his Child – Minnesota had their next hero in Adrian Peterson filling the void when Kevin Garnett was traded away. He was so revered in Minnesota that they called him ‘Purple Jesus’. I think he may have gotten confused with real-Jesus and the ‘spare the rod and spoil the child’ mantra and instead used the rod on his 4 year-old to the extent that he was charged with ‘reckless or negligent injury to a child’. The NFL suspended him for 6 games and we all came to the realization that we were worshiping a false idol.
 
2015 – Missed 27 yard kick in playoffs vs. Seattle – The Vikings played a hard-fought game with Seattle. Final drive, Vikes find themselves down 10-9… They rally to the 9 yard line with 26 seconds left… A chip-shot field goal…. This is the Vikings so I think everyone knew what was going to happen next… Blair Walsh misses left. Of course he does. Watch here…
 
2016 – Teddy Bridgewater almost loses a leg – Since this is the Vikings… I came into the 2016 season with decent expectations… Unfortunately, in one of the most freak accidents ever to take place on a football field… Teddy Bridgewater, their franchise quarterback, suffered a non-contact injury where he tore his ACL and suffered structural damage, including a dislocation of the knee joint to the point where there was talk of amputating the leg…. seriously. Thankfully, that wasn’t necessary but as of October 2017, he hasn’t played since.
 
Others that didn’t make the list….
Joe Mauer concussions
Prince dying
 
What did I miss?

Over the offseason, the Minnesota Twins hired a new front office duo in the form of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine. They were thrust into a situation where the roster was in flux, and the manager was appointed to them. On top of all that, they were faced with making a critical decision regarding a second basemen coming off one of the best seasons in franchise history. Fast forward to today, and trades have been the highlight that define the new tandem's baseball acumen.
 
Prior to the 2017 season getting underway, Falvey and Levine had extensive discussions with the Los Angeles Dodgers in regards to Brian Dozier. It was a match made in heaven from a needs perspective, and LA had the assets to part with. However, as the process drew on, it was apparent the Dodgers were stuck on giving up a sole player in return, and the Twins brass held their ground.
 
Despite putting up Harmon Killebrew like numbers a season ago, Dozier was primed for regression. He had averaged 23 homers a season from 2013-2015, and the 42 long ball output in 2016 wasn't going to cloud that. Regardless, he was still more valuable to the Twins than a one-for-one return. Jose De Leon is a nice enough prospect, but as they all are, a lottery ticket nonetheless. He had shoulder and arm issues in the past, and flipping a high level big leaguer for that level of uncertainty never made sense.
 
In the end, Falvey and Levine did their best to have Cody Bellinger or Walker Buehler brought into the conversation. While never a possibility, you can't fault them for aiming high. When players like Brock Stewart and Willie Calhoun weren't going to be thrown in either, they smartly walked away. At the end of the day, even with his faults, Dozier would be more valuable to the Twins than a straight up return of solely De Leon.
 
Fast forward to the 2017 Major League Baseball trade deadline and the duo was at it again. Despite no numbers suggesting Minnesota could hang with the red-hot, and frankly more talented, Cleveland Indians and Kansas City Royals, the front office took a calculated shot. Giving up next to nothing in Huascar Ynoa, Jaime Garcia was brought in to bolster a depleted rotation. In a matter of a week, the expected played itself out, and Minnesota' front office flipped the pitcher in a deal that essentially boiled down to buying two better prospects from the Yankees for roughly $5 million.
 
Caught in the middle ground between buying and selling, the Twins dipped their toe in, allowed the scenario to play itself out, and then ended up in a better position anyways. Once they established themselves as sellers, the strong decision making continued. With no realistic place for him in the organization, the Twins getting any return for John Ryan Murphy was a win. Sure, the former regime screwed the pooch in dealing away Aaron Hicks for nothing, but Gabriel Moya is dominating Double-A and is one heck of a dart throw in exchange for a guy you can't use.
 
While the Twins bullpen has been a mess in 2017, it always stood to reason that Brandon Kintzler had no place in it once Minnesota deemed it wasn't going anywhere. A free agent at the end of the year, he's still free to resign, and getting something back for him is a huge win. Falvey and Levine turned a guy the Twins signed on a minor league deal, and paid next to nothing in 2017 for, into a high floor/low ceiling minor league arm from the Nationals. Continuing to add to pitching depth, Minnesota did right by Kintzler and themselves.
 
It's been less than a year thus far, but what we've seen from the front office in terms of acquisitions should be heartwarming. The Twins have a young core, and are positioned to win soon, and for an extended period of time. With savvy decision making thus far, an offseason in which it makes sense to spend and supplement is something that lies ahead of both Falvey and Levine.
 
The rest of the way in 2017, it would be nice to see a glut of prospects make their debuts at Target Field. Starting the audition process now would go a long ways into shaping the 25 man coming out of spring training a year from now. There is the caveat that Paul Molitor may not be around a year from now, and that could influence roster decisions presently. That being said, it seems that when shaping this organization, Derek Falvey and That Levine have a plan. So far, they've shown an ability to know when to hold em, and maybe more importantly, when to fold em.
 
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As the 2017 trade deadline quick approaches, the Minnesota Twins find themselves in what amounts to a less than enviable situation. Despite losing a franchise record 103 games a year ago, the turnaround has put them near the top of the AL Central. At 49-50 on July 26, they find themselves 4.5 games back in the division race. That makes decision making that much more critical.
 
Thus far, the Twins have suggested they will be buyers of long term assets, yet their only move has been to acquire two month rental, Jaime Garcia. The aforementioned Garcia gives the club a nice starting boost while surrendering Huascar Ynoa doesn't hurt them to any real extent. While the trade in and of itself doesn't hurt the club, it doesn't signify any real stance on how they'll approach the rest of the year.
 
Beginning on July 26, 30 of the Twins final 64 games come against teams with losing records. The bulk of that competition hails from the AL Central, thanks to poor efforts from the White Sox and Tigers. They do get the Athletics, Blue Jays, and Padres down the stretch as well, so there's plenty of opportunities for wins. On the flip side of that coin, both the Cleveland Indians and Kansas City Royals have a similar amount of divisional games left.
 
Despite the exciting results thus far in 2017, the realistic expectation is that this current Twins club isn't a playoff contender. There's always an argument to be made that going for it when the opportunity presents itself makes sense; after all, anything can happen if you can simply get in. For Paul Molitor's club though, it's virtually division championship or bust. The hometown nine is currently three games out of the second Wild Card, and the Yankees aren't going anywhere. They'd need to be better than the Royals, Rays, and Mariners to be a real player for that final entry into a one-game playoff.
 
As the rest of the trade landscape takes place, Minnesota finds themselves in an enviable position even if they stand pat. The club is bolstered by a young contingent of players that are under team control, and can be counted on to contribute, for many years to come. A lineup with Sano, Kepler, and Buxton seems to be one that will continually be run out year after year.
 
Wading in the middle ground, the Twins have some expendable assets. They could probably garner some sort of return for the likes of Ervin Santana, Brian Dozier and Brandon Kintzler. Of that group, only Kintzler is a free agent after the year, and the former two are likely unaffected trade-wise if dealt over the winter.
 
Right now, the reality for Minnesota is that their internal core is one that already exists. At this point, taking the next step has to come from supplementation. By spending on a couple of free agents, whether through the rotation or the lineup, the Twins 25 man can rise to the next level. There isn't that next top tier prospect ready to provide an immediate impact, and allowing the group to be bolstered by a credible big leaguer or two is something that could put the current contingent over the top.
 
The fact of the matter is that the middle ground isn't an entirely enviable place to be. Fans void of a winner for some time will be clamoring for the club to make a realistic run. Sacrificing what 2018 appears to be doesn't seem like a solid tradeoff. Playing good teams like the Dodgers, will expose the Twins as the lopsided run differential club they are, but they'll have plenty of wins to grab the rest of the way. Expect an up and down final couple of months, but know that 2017 isn't the spectacle you've been waiting for.
 
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