Secondary User

It's no secret that the biggest position of need for the Twins is the pitching staff. Sadly, this is a very weak free agent pitching class, and with arms like Santana, Hughes and Gibson still around and reports out that the Twins won't be adding payroll this offseason there doesn't look to be much in the way of room for additions anyway. Looks to be a bleak 2017 led by another dismal performance by the pitching staff. Or is it? What if the first step on the journey to fixing the pitching is a step backwards, as in behind the plate?
 
Let's start by looking at what Twins catchers from 2015 have done in their careers:
 
http://i.imgur.com/emwUkcB.png
 
It's pretty clear that Twins catchers have done their pitchers no favors. Both Centeno and Suzuki continued their career trends of being sub par, if not awful pitch framers. It might seem like a trait that would have minimal impact, but some quick research into the effectiveness of hitters based on count quickly shows the drastic effect stealing a strike or giving one away can have.
 
http://i.imgur.com/oEkxOXv.png
 
There's a lot of numbers there, but take particular note of the BA and SLG as the count progresses and you can see the value framing can bring. For instance, After a 1-0 count, hitters hit .271/.382/.457 last year, while after an 0-1 count, hitters hit .223/.266/.352. That's roughly a 20% increase in production based on whether the first pitch gets called a ball or a strike. That's where the value of pitch framing comes from. Putting your pitchers in more favorable counts by stealing strikes and not hurting them by giving them away. When you figure that Suzuki and Centeno were two of the worst pitch framers in the majors this year, and certainly haven't been good throughout their careers, you start to wonder just how much of an effect this may have had on the Twins results.
 
 
The Twins got their offseason started by signing catcher Jason Castro. Castro's 3yr/$24mil contract is directly tied to his ability as a pitch framer.
 
http://i.imgur.com/gNEYE4A.png
 
Over the past three seasons, Baseball Prospectus has rated him as a plus pitch framer. Since 2014, he's been one of the best framers in the league, and when you take the abysmal framing the Twins were getting from Suzuki/Centeno and bring in a genuine plus behind the plate, the potential for some significant improvements without even touching the pitching staff suddenly becomes plausible.
 
The Catch:
 
Castro's problem though is pretty offensive splits. Against RHP, Castro hits a respectable .247/.328/.424. But against LHP, that plummets to a .190/.249/.287. So any value Castro brings defensively will be largely offset when the opposing pitcher is a southpaw. So ideally, you'd want to platoon Castro with a catcher who can hit LHP, and also brings good defensive value.
 
 
***DISCLAIMER***
 
I'm about to say something that may have you questioning my qualifications to write even a personal blog comment on this, so for the sake of objectivity, I'm going to remove names.
 
***DISCLAIMER***
 
Player A actually fits the mold quite well. As the graph below shows, Player A has graded out as a superb pitch framer in the minors, and in limited time in the majors, has been a plus framer.
 
http://i.imgur.com/rfrSKie.png
 
He has hit LHP to the tune of .253/.301/.390. Nothing to write home about, but for the lesser half of a L/R catching platoon, certainly serviceable. So who is this masked man? John Ryan Murphy. I know, I know, I know. 2015 was awful and just made you question how he ever made it to the major leagues. But looking past a small sample, we see the yin to Castro's yang. The right handed bat that can hold his own against LHP and not cost your pitcher strikes.
 
Can it be enough to make a meaningful difference? That's what we'll see. The Twins rotation had the worst ERA in the AL by over half a run. The rotation won't be fixed in one move. Jason Castro is not a silver bullet. But this signing embodies a departure from a way of thinking that was often times behind the times.

It's no secret that the biggest position of need for the Twins is the pitching staff. Sadly, this is a very weak free agent pitching class, and with arms like Santana, Hughes and Gibson still around and reports out that the Twins won't be adding payroll this offseason there doesn't look to be much in the way of room for additions anyway. Looks to be a bleak 2017 led by another dismal performance by the pitching staff. Or is it? What if the first step on the journey to fixing the pitching is a step backwards, as in behind the plate?
 
Let's start by looking at what Twins catchers from 2015 have done in their careers:
 
http://i.imgur.com/emwUkcB.png
 
It's pretty clear that Twins catchers have done their pitchers no favors. Both Centeno and Suzuki continued their career trends of being sub par, if not awful pitch framers. It might seem like a trait that would have minimal impact, but some quick research into the effectiveness of hitters based on count quickly shows the drastic effect stealing a strike or giving one away can have.
 
http://i.imgur.com/oEkxOXv.png
 
There's a lot of numbers there, but take particular note of the BA and SLG as the count progresses and you can see the value framing can bring. For instance, After a 1-0 count, hitters hit .271/.382/.457 last year, while after an 0-1 count, hitters hit .223/.266/.352. That's roughly a 20% increase in production based on whether the first pitch gets called a ball or a strike. That's where the value of pitch framing comes from. Putting your pitchers in more favorable counts by stealing strikes and not hurting them by giving them away. When you figure that Suzuki and Centeno were two of the worst pitch framers in the majors this year, and certainly haven't been good throughout their careers, you start to wonder just how much of an effect this may have had on the Twins results.
 
 
The Twins got their offseason started by signing catcher Jason Castro. Castro's 3yr/$24mil contract is directly tied to his ability as a pitch framer.
 
http://i.imgur.com/gNEYE4A.png
 
Over the past three seasons, Baseball Prospectus has rated him as a plus pitch framer. Since 2014, he's been one of the best framers in the league, and when you take the abysmal framing the Twins were getting from Suzuki/Centeno and bring in a genuine plus behind the plate, the potential for some significant improvements without even touching the pitching staff suddenly becomes plausible.
 
The Catch:
 
Castro's problem though is pretty offensive splits. Against RHP, Castro hits a respectable .247/.328/.424. But against LHP, that plummets to a .190/.249/.287. So any value Castro brings defensively will be largely offset when the opposing pitcher is a southpaw. So ideally, you'd want to platoon Castro with a catcher who can hit LHP, and also brings good defensive value.
 
 
***DISCLAIMER***
 
I'm about to say something that may have you questioning my qualifications to write even a personal blog comment on this, so for the sake of objectivity, I'm going to remove names.
 
***DISCLAIMER***
 
Player A actually fits the mold quite well. As the graph below shows, Player A has graded out as a superb pitch framer in the minors, and in limited time in the majors, has been a plus framer.
 
http://i.imgur.com/rfrSKie.png
 
He has hit LHP to the tune of .253/.301/.390. Nothing to write home about, but for the lesser half of a L/R catching platoon, certainly serviceable. So who is this masked man? John Ryan Murphy. I know, I know, I know. 2015 was awful and just made you question how he ever made it to the major leagues. But looking past a small sample, we see the yin to Castro's yang. The right handed bat that can hold his own against LHP and not cost your pitcher strikes.
 
Can it be enough to make a meaningful difference? That's what we'll see. The Twins rotation had the worst ERA in the AL by over half a run. The rotation won't be fixed in one move. Jason Castro is not a silver bullet. But this signing embodies a departure from a way of thinking that was often times behind the times.

After the inaugural season at Target field, the Twins brass made the fateful decision to remove the 14 black spruce trees from centerfield. When viewed in retrospect, this decision, it seems clear, has placed a curse on the franchise. Consider:
The Twins won 58% of their games in the first season in which they called Target Field their home, including a whopping 65% of the games they played at home in the great outdoors, with a piney backdrop.
Since felling the trees, the team has won 41% of their games over the past four years, and only 40% of the games at the treeless Target Field.
If the Twins had won 53 home games in 2011 (like they did in 2010), they would have come in second in their division. 53 home wins in 2014 would put the Twins tied with Oakland for the Wild Card. 53 home wins in 2012 would have won them the AL Central Division.
There is more to the #CurseOfTheTrees:
After uprooting the trees in January, 2011, the impact was almost immediately felt: Michael Cuddyer developed problematic warts on his feet within 2 months, Joe Mauer was diagnosed with bilateral leg weakness by April, and the Twins biggest ever international signee, Japanese star Tsuyoshi Nishioka, broke his leg in his sixth game in MLB - the day before the Twins were to play their first game in Target field without the trees. Morneau couldn't get back on track from his 2010 concussion all year, (including needing neck surgery by June) and by the end of the 2011, top pitching prospect Kyle Gibson was going under the knife for Tommy John.
More recently, the #CurseOfTheTrees has extended its limbs back down to the minor league system, causing it's two uber prospects to have largely lost seasons immediately after rising to the tops of the prospect lists; Sano undergoing Tommy John surgery (highly unusual for a position player) and Byron Buxton injuring and reinjuring his wrist before getting his season cut short in August from a head-on collision and concussion in his first game at Double A.
The misery hasn't end with the Twins who stayed within the organization. By the end of 2014, former Twins regulars had gone on to great success away from the treeless expanses of Target Field these past four years: winning batting titles in 2013 and 2014, multiple gold gloves, a 2012 Cy Young award (and a Top 10 finish in 2013), and a 2012 postseason MVP trophy. The trees were undoubtedly the root of the Twins firing a GM for the first time in countless years, and a manager for the first time in decades.
The Twins have to bring the trees back. When the trees are back in place, the team will quickly become (re)accustomed to hitting with the backdrop, giving them an advantage over their opponents. And instead of counting on a wayward Twins employee to turn the air conditioning on to the home team's advantage, the Twins fans can turn on their mini fans towards centerfield when the opponents bat. It will be like basketball fans trying to throw off opposing foul shooters.
 
Let's end the curse. #BBTT Bring 'em back.

http://i.imgur.com/Xiw0AIe.jpg
 
Going to make this quick. A lot of four seam fastballs, and a lot less change ups. His Swinging Strike rates were down as a result, but he still picked up 6 Ks in 5 innings. He did walk one, and that walk came in to score on a 2 run homerun after he left a change up in the middle of the plate and Viciedo was waiting on it. His control did slip a little bit in the last couple innings. He got strike one on 15 out of 20 batters who didn't put the ball in play on the first pitch (happened twice). He didn't have a three ball count until the walk he gave up with one out in the fourth, but it happened two more times after that (both in the fifth), and both at bats resulted in a hit.
 
In the end, it's a 1.4 WHIP, a 10.8 K/9, a 1.8 BB/9 and, last but not least, a W.

http://i.imgur.com/aOQ2S3b.jpg
 
Well that turned quickly. Four pitches into the ninth and what looked like it could be a win on a night where he pitched fantasticly turned into a no decision.
 
But since this is about the starting pitching let's focus on that fantastic part. Nolasco gave up 3 hits, 1 walk, 2 hit by pitch and had six strike outs over 7 innings on 97 pitches. With the exception of the two HBP, his command was strong. Both HBP were on Billy Butler, a man who clogs the base paths, but both were leading off an inning, and both when he was ahead in the count (0-1 and 1-2 respectively). Still, he only allowed 6 baserunners all night, and only once (2nd inning) did he allow more than one runner on in an inning. 22 foul balls/tips (I swear I'm going to edit my template and start including that in here) and 8.2% swinging strike rate, but as I mentioned last week, Kansas City has one of the lowest Swing and Miss rates in the league (28th of 30, 7.9%), so this is no surprise.

http://i.imgur.com/aOQ2S3b.jpg
 
Well that turned quickly. Four pitches into the ninth and what looked like it could be a win on a night where he pitched fantasticly turned into a no decision.
 
But since this is about the starting pitching let's focus on that fantastic part. Nolasco gave up 3 hits, 1 walk, 2 hit by pitch and had six strike outs over 7 innings on 97 pitches. With the exception of the two HBP, his command was strong. Both HBP were on Billy Butler, a man who clogs the base paths, but both were leading off an inning, and both when he was ahead in the count (0-1 and 1-2 respectively). Still, he only allowed 6 baserunners all night, and only once (2nd inning) did he allow more than one runner on in an inning. 22 foul balls/tips (I swear I'm going to edit my template and start including that in here) and 8.2% swinging strike rate, but as I mentioned last week, Kansas City has one of the lowest Swing and Miss rates in the league (28th of 30, 7.9%), so this is no surprise.

http://i.imgur.com/eB9pmdG.jpg
 
Mixed bag tonight from Nolasco. Nolasco's Fastball velocity seemed all over the place. He started the first two innings around 91-92 mph with both his 4 and 2 seam, but at the end of the first he touched 93 with back to back 2 seams. Then, in the third inning his velocity dipped down, registering 89-90 (thouched 92 with his last 2 seam of the inning). Then for the rest of the game he seemed hovered at 91-92, while a few 89, 90 and 93 mixed in. The Indians came into tonight's contest with the 7th lowest SwStk% in the league (8.5%), so his 8.6% is right on pace, if a little low still. His slider, while effective for some swinging strikes, when put in play did not help him much. I seemed surprised when I looked up and noticed it was 2 outs in the 7th inning when Nolasco was pulled. It really didn't seem like he had his best stuff and that he seemed in trouble often, but did a moderately good job pitching around it. That inherited runner that scored took his start from a respectable (respectively anyway) 4.05 ERA outing to a 5.40. 6 Ks, for an 8.1 K/9 rate tonight is also a nice number to see.
 
It's hard for me to tell if Nolasco is mechanically right yet or not. The velocity dip on the fastball over a full inning makes it seem as if something still falls out of place every once in a while. Any insight would be greatly appreciated.