RealTwinsFan357

I've been reading (and partaking in) some awesome debates on Twins Daily lately. One of my favorite topics has been the discussion about whether to trade Plouffe for a C/SS and open up 3B for Sano. I have also enjoyed reading and thinking about topics such as whether Hunter should be re-signed, whether Hicks should play RF next year, etc. I decided that I would look at some statistics regarding the Twins offensive production and try to pinpoint exactly what the Twins biggest weaknesses are. The statistics I chose are Fangraphs's WAR and wRC+. This decision is somewhat arbitrary, but I think these two statistics are the best at gauging overall value. My goal is to examine where Twins players (with at least 100PA) line up with other players (also with at least 100PA) at their position. I let Fangraphs decide which players qualified for which position, thus sometimes multiple players qualify at multiple positions. I also examined where a few players would be if they switched positions. For each player, I will give their WAR, wRC+, rank, and percentile at each position they qualify for.* The Data: Kurt Suzuki: -0.3 WAR (53/54-4th percentile at C), 58 wRC+ (44/54-20th percentile at C) Joe Mauer: 0.0 WAR(38/54-31st percentile at 1B), 91 wRC+ (34/54-39th percentile at 1B) Kennys Vargas: -0.5 WAR(18/22-23rd percentile at DH, 46/54-17th percentile at 1B), 75 wRC+ (20/22-14th percentile at DH, 46/54-17th percentile at 1B) Brian Dozier: 3.2 WAR(4/50-94th percentile at 2B), 122 wRC+ (9/50-84th percentile at 2B) Trevor Plouffe: 2.4 WAR(12/52-79th percentile at 3B), 110 wRC+ (18/52-67th percentile at 3B) Eduardo Escobar: -0.6 WAR(43/48-13th percentile at SS, 66/75-13th percentile at LF), 80 wRC+ (29/48-42nd percentile at SS, 60/75-21st percentile at LF) Eduardo Nunez: 0.4 WAR(28/48-44th percentile at SS, 12/22-50th percentile at DH), 92 wRC+ (17/48-67th percentile at SS, 15/22-36th percentile at DH) Danny Santana: -1.2 WAR(48/48-2nd percentile at SS), 43 wRC+ (43/45, 8th percentile at SS) Eddie Rosario: 1.2 WAR(22/75-72nd percentile at LF, 22/53-60th percentile at RF), 100 wRC+ (38/75-51st percentile at LF, 28/53-49th percentile at RF) Shane Robinson: 0.2 WAR(48/75-37th percentile at LF), 67 wRC+ (66/75-13th percentile at LF) Aaron Hicks: 1.5 WAR(20/49-61st percentile at CF), 103 wRC+ (22/49-57th percentile at CF) Torii Hunter: 0.9 WAR(28/53-49th percentile at RF), 99 wRC+(29/53-47th percentile at RF) Miguel Sano: 0.8 WAR(9/22-64th percentile at DH), 160 wRC+(2/22-95th percentile at DH) I also examined where a few players would rank at different positions: Miguel Sano: 0.8 WAR(24/50-54th percentile at 3B), 160 wRC+ (2/50, 98th percentile at 3B) Aaron Hicks: 1.5 WAR(19/53-66th percentile at RF), 103 wRC+ (26/53-53rd percentile at RF) Torii Hunter: 0.9 WAR(7/22-73rd percentile at DH), 99 wRC+ (13/22-45th percentile at DH) Conclusions: Overall, I have to say I'm disappointed with almost the entire Twins offense. Only Dozier and Sano are top 10 talents at their respective positions, Plouffe is a borderline top 15 third baseman, and if we consider the top 30 players the "starting-level" talent at each position (15 players for DH), no other player is in the top half at any position (although it is possible Rosario could be if I had only allowed players to qualify for one position). Again using 30 as an arbitrary cutoff for being considered "starting-level", the Twins do not have a "starting-level" player at C or 1B. At SS and all 3 outfield positions, the best player we have is rated in the 20s. Clearly, something needs to be done about this offense. It is curious to see that moving Hicks to RF would actually increase his positional rank when it comes to WAR. This must be because RF contains a lot of below average fielders. Once we consider that Hicks's defensive will probably improve even more with the shift away form center field, it looks like he could be a top 15 talent in the corner. It appears that Sano has the bat to be a truly elite player at 3B or DH, while Plouffe may not be as strong offensively as many (including myself) believe. In my opinion, the Twins would be wise to trade Plouffe for a top 20 catcher. Of course, they could also throw in some prospects to make this happen. Hunter is currently our 3rd best outfielder, but Buxton also deserves a starting chance. Arcia is also out of options next year and will only be able to DH if Plouffe is traded. Add in the fact that Kepler could debut sometime next year and it seems if Hunter comes on for another year, it should be as a 4th or 5th outfielder. I don't think we really need him for his production, but I can't speak about intangibles. Maybe they could sign him to be a player-coach who mainly just sits on the bench. There are worse uses for a bench spot. I really don't want to start another Mauer war, so all I will say about 1B is that it looks like we are in trouble. The good news here is that we don't have a true replacement for Mauer (sure Plouffe or Sano could play 1B, but neither of them is actually a first basemen. Likewise Kepler is primarily an outfielder. The only player the Twins have on the 40-man that is primarily a first baseman is Vargas and his offense has been worse than Mauer's). It is still possible Mauer turns it around, it is possible our young hitters develop into 3-4-5 types so we can move Mauer down in the lineup, and Mauer's contract should not prevent Terry Ryan from extending some of our young talent. We are not the only team with a bad contract, so there is no reason Mauer's play needs to sink this team. Overall, it seems like this offense has a way to go before it becomes that of serious a playoff team. I think we need to see top 10 production at at least 2-3 positions and top 20 production at another 3-4 before the Twins make it out of the first round of the playoffs. This season has been fun to watch, and I'm excited to see where this teams goes in the next few years. Thanks for reading!! *I acknowledge that the statistical analysis used here is far from perfect. For example, WAR is accumulated differently at different positions, so looking at the WAR of a player who has played multiple positions (or looking at the WAR of a player who could change positions), is not a fair measurement. In addition, there are players who qualify for multiple positions, meaning the 30 "starting-level" players at different positions may contain some overlap. As a result, a player rated int he 40s could still be top 30 at their position when only considering each player at one position. Nevertheless, I feel as though these statistics provide some insight into the nature of the Twins offense.

Do realize that most of his road splits come at other NL west parks, which I think are all pitcher-friendly. Target field is much more neutral

I have always been a huge fan of Zobrist, and I agree he is better than the Eduardos, I would just want him to play enough to be valuable is all. I didn't think about postseason experience, but that's a really good point and could come into play

Clippard I like, but I don't see a need for Zobrist, especially if Polanco starts at SS. We would still have the 2 Eduardos for infield backup along with Robinson and Hicks (assuming Rosario, Buxton, and Hunter in the OF) to backup the outfield. Arcia could get thrown into the mix, too (especially in sept).

I love the idea here but I ask (mainly out of curiosity) whether the MVP will go to the player who helps their team the most or just the best player. It has always seemed to me that it goes to the best player, but I could be wrong.

I would say Brian would be in the discussion, but I don't think he would get many votes. Maybe if the MVP was always given to the player with the highest war he would have a chance, but I just don't see him competing with Trout/Cabrera/Donaldson etc Not directly related but I hope Goldschmidt wins the NL MVP this year, he might be my favorite non-Twin

The Twins are in an interesting place. The 40-man roster is, yet again, full. The Twins definitely have a lot of players, but they don't have a lot of great (or arguably even a lot of good) players. It is obvious the Twins won't win a championship with their current team, but that's not to say there aren't bright spots. I'd like to take a quick look at the position players on the Twins' 40-man roster and examine what future, if any, they have with the team. Catchers: Eric Fryer: Although he is a replacement-level player, it seems important that Fryer stay on the 40-man roster. I think Pinto and Suzuki should be co-starters this season with Fryer in AAA in case of injury. A 40-man roster shouldn't operate with only 2 catchers, and I don't think there is a better candidate to be the Twins third catcher than Eric Fryer. It's worth mentioning that Fryer's offensive numbers were slightly higher than Drew Butera's last year. I think the Twins will hold onto Fryer until one of their catching prospects (Stewart Turner or Mitch Garver, for example) reach the high minors and are ready to be added to the 40-man roster. Josmil Pinto: I think Pinto will have some success this year with more frequent repetitions behind the plate and being paired with a pitcher not named Samuel Deduno. Pinto's bat shows a lot of promise and I think he could be a trade candidate down the road if one of our prospects (Turner or Garver) press to become the starting catcher. Kurt Suzuki: I'm still a little uneasy about the decision to extend Suzuki. He's a good ballplayer, but I don't expect him to stand out offensively or defensively this year. $6 million is also a lot to pay for a backup player, so I expect Suzuki to get plenty of playing time the next two years. I don't see him having a long-term place with the team, but I do think he will play out his contract with the Twins because the Twins will want to keep him if he puts up solid numbers and other teams will be reluctant to trade for him if he puts up poor numbers. Infielders: Chris Colabello: I think the Twins should let Colabello try his luck somewhere else. The Twins have plenty of candidates to take at bats at 1B and DH. I don't think Colabello will see much time with the Twins at all, and he could be out-righted if the Twins need roster space. Brian Dozier: Dozier's next season or two will determine if he becomes a franchise player or a tradeable asset. I haven't convinced myself of either one at this point. Dozier clearly has some skill, but he was quite disappointing offensively in the second half last year. It is definitely too premature to consider trading or extending Dozier. His own improvement at the plate, Danny Santana's ability to play shortstop, and Jorge Polanco's progress as a prospect will all be factors in the ultimate decision. Eduardo Escobar: The numbers Escobar put up last year were pleasantly surprising. He demonstrated that he has the talent to be a fringe starter in the major leagues. I approve of using Danny Santana as our primary shortstop this year, but Escobar is a good safety net and should get several at bats. In my opinion, it wouldn't hurt to give Dozier, Santana, and Plouffe a day off every week and allow Escobar to get three starts. This would allow the Twins to see how Escobar's bat holds up and increase his trade value. If Santana is successful, I think Escobar could become a good trade chip for the Twins. Joe Mauer: Mauer will play first base until his contract is over. His offensive numbers should recover a little bit next season. Trevor Plouffe: If Sano has success and demonstrates the ability to stick at third base, Plouffe becomes our most logical trade chip. If not, Plouffe could be an extension candidate. I think Plouffe's future will be determined almost entirely by Sano's return from Tommy John surgery. Jorge Polanco: If he continues hitting, Polanco could take Dozier's spot in the field in the future. If not, Polanco could be a valuable utility player. Miguel Sano: If he sticks at third base, he is the third baseman of the future. If not, he may make Kennys Vargas expendable. Danny Santana: I hope Santana sticks at short. If he does, I think he will hold down that position until Nick Gordon arrives, at which point one of them becomes a trade candidate. Kennys Vargas: Vargas should start the year with the Twins. If he has a sophomore slump, he can be sent down to Rochester. I also think Vargas should get two starts at first per week with Mauer DH-ing those days. That will allow Vargas to work on his defense and allow Joe to stay fresh. I think Vargas is the Twins DH for the foreseeable unless Sano can't play third base or his abilities drop off. Outfielders: Oswaldo Arcia: I think Arcia will be the Twins best hitter this year. It sounds like he is playing left field, which I think will slightly increase his defensive ratings. Arcia is very young and has a lot of potential. Despite his defensive shortcomings, I think the future Twins lineup needs to be built around him. If he has a breakout season this year I could see him as a potential extension candidate. If not after this season, the Twins could buy out his arbitration years after next season. Chris Herrmann: If Herrmann was still listed as a catcher I would see the point in having him on the team. As is, I don't see him playing a major role with this club unless a lot of outfielders get injured. Aaron Hicks: As much as it frustrates me, I am confident Aaron Hicks will be the opening day centerfielder. The Twins expressed their desire to have Torii Hunter help mentor their younger players, and I don't see them stating that then sending Hicks to AAA. I don't have much faith in Hicks anymore. Maybe he can become a 4th outfielder, but I don't see his bat giving him a starting role once Buxton debuts. Torii Hunter: Hunter will play right field, and give the Twins some offense this year. If the Twins resign him next year, they will have made a mistake. I have mixed feelings about signing Hunter, but at least he isn't blocking anybody right now. Next season he would be blocking Buxton and Rosario (and possibly others). Max Kepler: If Kepler has a breakout season he could be a decent trade candidate. I see the Twins long-term outfield as consisting of Rosario-Buxton-Arcia, but Kepler could be part of the equation, too. Eduardo Nunez: I think Nunez offers some value as a super-utility player and pinch runner. He will play for the Twins until a prospect with more promise is ready for promotion. I could potentially see Polanco taking his 25-man roster spot after this season. Chris Parmelee: I liked what Parmelee did against left handed pitching last year, but I think his time with the Twins is almost at an end. It seems Hunter may have taken Parmelee's 25-man roster spot this season. Since Parmelee actually put up decent defensive numbers last year, I wouldn't be surprised to see another team roll the dice with him. Eddie Rosario: Rosario could play center field for the Twins come June or July if Hicks is struggling. If his bat holds up, I think Rosario could be the answer in left field once Buxton arrives. I would start him at AAA to see if he is ready to take on major league pitching. Jordan Schafer: If nothing else, I'm glad we have a better backup plan for Hicks than last year. I think holding on to Schafer is a good idea for now, but I don't see him playing for the Twins in 2016 when Rosario, Buxton, and possibly Kepler are getting closer to the majors. In a couple of days I will go through the pitchers on the Twins 40-man roster and examine what future each of them has with the club. Thanks for reading and let me know what you think!

I understand the frustration with signing Torii Hunter right now, but I think it's unfair to be angry at him for leaving the Twins in the first place. The Twins offered him HALF of what he took to play for Los Angeles. I don't know many people who wouldn't go work for a rival company if they were guaranteed double the money they would make at their current job. It is also important to remember that only a small portion of the Twins fan base can be found blogging and posting in forums. It is true that most Twins fans with a grasp of advanced metrics and/or an understanding of how poor Hunter's defense really is (myself included) are a bit disappointed with this singing, but I know plenty of casual Twins fans who are ecstatic that Torii is back with the Twins. Those people aren't idiots, they just don't follow the game as closely, and they will be filling the seats at Target Field to see their hero play this year.

I agree there is no way to determine how Pelfrey will pitch with shorter rest, but Swarzak was definitely not the type of guy to put out the fire when runners were on base. He inherited 35 runners this year and allowed 16 of them to score (46%). As a percentage I'm not sure how that stacks up, but he was 51st in number of inherited runners and 6th in number of inherited runners scored, so he probably didn't rank very high in the percentage category. (data from sportingcharts.com)

I agree with this 100%. My thought process was that if Plouffe and/or Dozier have great seasons and Sano/Polanco/Rosario demonstrate they will be capable major league players going forward, we may be able to trade at least one of Dozier/Plouffe next off-season. Thanks for the feedback!

It may mean a bunch of losses in 2015, but the Twins need to use their next season to evaluate what they have. Next off-season, they can look at the trade and free agent market and search for a way to supplement their 25-man roster, but for now, they need to commit to the youth movement. I'll take a look at the players who deserve an extended look in each area of the Twins roster.Starting Rotation: Obviously, Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco are not going anywhere. I think Kyle Gibson is a breakout candidate and could prove to be something special. On top of those three, I would choose Trevor May and Alex Meyer to fill out my rotation. If the Twins are ever going to compete, they need to know if either of those pitchers will ever become a front-of-the-rotation arm. This doesn't leave room for a free-agent acquisition. I agree the Twins would probably win an additional handful of games if they signed Justin Masterson to a 1-year deal, but then either May or Meyer ends up in AAA. That's not how a youth movement is supposed to go. The Twins will still have Tommy Milone and Logan Darnell who could fill in if injury arises. If Meyer doesn't have what it takes to succeed, I'd rather know that after a poor 2015 than part way into 2016. Bullpen: The bullpen needs to have some turn-over this year. I would have no problem with the Twins trading/non-tendering Anthony Swarzak and Brian Duensing and I believe Jared Burton will be gone once the Twins buy out his contract. I would formulate a bullpen with Glen Perkins, Casey Fien, Logan Darnell, Ryan Pressly, Stephen Pryor, Mike Pelfrey, Michael Tonkin and Casey Theilbar. I would also make sure A.J. Achter and Lester Oliveros get an extended look at some point. This will not be the best bullpen in baseball, but Jake Reed, Nick Burdi, and Zack Jones will be here by season's end. Even if they don't all pan out, I expect at least two of them to show immediate success. The Twins would then need to know who stays and who goes amongst the others. 2015 is the year to figure that out. Infield: Danny Santana needs to be the shortstop. If that's actually going to be his position, the Twins need to see how he handles it full time. Brian Dozier and Trevor Plouffe could end up becoming two of Minnesota's best trade candidates, especially if MIguel Sano and Jorge Polanco both show major league success toward the end of 2015. Of course, Joe Mauer isn't going anywhere and Kennys Vargas will get the majority of DH at bats. This year is also Josmil Pinto's change to show whether he can be the catcher of the future; I think we'll know by season's end. There are not as many questions about the infield as other aspects of the team. Outfield: I don't understand the idea that the Twins should trade Oswaldo Arcia. I agree he isn't the best outfielder in the world, but I would argue he's the only outfielder that isn't a total question mark going into 2015. Center field and left field are sort of a mess, so why trade Arcia and make right field a mess, too? For center and left, I think the Twins can patch together enough success to survive 2015. Jordan Schafer should be retained for another season, as he plays pretty good defense and runs well. Other than that, I would give Aaron Hicks, Eddie Rosario, Danny Ortiz, and eventually Byron Buxton opportunities this year. I could even see Rosario being the Twins opening day center fielder this season. If Hicks, Rosario, and Ortiz fail and Buxton isn't ready, the Twins can ride with Chris Parmelee in left field until someone hits the waver wire without it being the end of the world. Overall, 2015 might be a struggle, like Terry Ryan suggested, but it could help the team in the long run to just play the group they already have. Once the Twins know what they have in their top prospects, they will be in a better position to pursue talent on the free agent and trade markets to supplement what they already have. Click here to view the article

I'm not sold on Darnell yet, but I still think it's worth looking at him to see if he can be a lefty specialist or long man out of the bullpen. His AAA ERA this year was well above his FIP, so it is very possible he doesn't have what it takes to succeed at the MLB level, but I would rather know one way or the other at the end of 2015.

I agree having Masterson on the Twins would mean a few more wins in 2015, but then what happens to Meyer? A rotation of Hughes, Masterson, Gibson, Nolasco, and May would have some great potential, but if those five pitch all of 2015, we would reach 2016 with no idea how Meyer will fare as an MLB starter.

It may mean a bunch of losses in 2015, but the Twins need to use their next season to evaluate what they have. Next off-season, they can look at the trade and free agent market and search for a way to supplement their 25-man roster, but for now, they need to commit to the youth movement. I'll take a look at the players who deserve an extended look in each area of the Twins roster. Starting Rotation: Obviously, Hughes and Nolasco are not going anywhere. I think Gibson is a breakout candidate and could prove to be something special. On top of those three, I would choose May and Meyer to fill out my rotation. If the Twins are ever going to compete, they need to know if either of those pitchers will ever become a front-of-the-rotation arm. This doesn't leave room for a free-agent acquisition. I agree the Twins would probably win an additional handful of games if they signed Justin Masterson to a 1-year deal, but then either May or Meyer ends up in AAA. That's not how a youth movement is supposed to go. The Twins will still have Milone and Darnell who could fill in if injury arises. If Meyer doesn't have what it takes to succeed, I'd rather know that after a poor 2015 then part way into 2016. Bullpen: The bullpen needs to have some turn-over this year. I would have no problem with the Twins trading/non-tendering Swarzak and Duensing and I believe Burton will be gone once the Twins buy out his contract. I would formulate a bullpen with Perkins, Fien, Darnell, Pressly, Pryor, Pelfrey, Tonkin and Theilbar. I would also make sure Achter and Oliveros get an extended look at some point. This will not be the best bullpen in baseball, but Jake Reed, Nick Burdi, and Zack Jones will be here by season's end. Even if they don't all pan out, I expect at least two of them to show immediate success. The Twins would then need to know who stays and who goes amongst the others. 2015 is the year to figure that out. Infield: Santana needs to be the shortstop. If that's actually going to be his position, the Twins need to see how he handles it full time. Dozier and Plouffe could end up becoming two of Minnesota's best trade candidates, especially if Sano and Polanco both show major league success toward the end of 2015. Of course, Mauer isn't going anywhere and Vargas will get the majority of DH at bats. This year is also Pinto's change to show whether he can be the catcher of the future; I think we'll know by season's end. There are not as many questions about the infield as other aspects of the team. Outfield: I don't understand the idea that the Twins should trade Arcia. I agree he isn't the best outfielder in the world, but I would argue he's the only outfielder that isn't a total question mark going into 2015. CF and LF are sort of a mess, so why trade Arcia and make RF a mess, too? For CF and LF, I think the Twins can patch together enough success to survive 2015. Schafer should be retained for another season, as he plays pretty good defense and runs well. Other than that, I would give Hicks, Rosario, Danny Ortiz, and eventually Buxton opportunities this year. I could even see Rosario being the Twins opening day CF this season. If Hicks, Rosario, and Ortiz fail and Buxton isn't ready, the Twins can ride with Parmelee in LF until someone hits the waver wire without it being the end of the world. Overall, 2015 might be a struggle, like Terry Ryan suggested, but it could help the team in the long run to just play the group they already have. Once the Twins know what they have in their top prospects, they will be in a better position to pursue talent on the free agent and trade markets to supplement what they already have.

September 30, 2016: What a year it has been for the Minnesota Twins! The Twins recently won their 93rd game of the season and have at last unseated the Detroit Tigers from their five year perch atop the AL central. It's hard to believe the Twins made it this far despite losing 90 games every year from 2011-2014. We'll take a look at each player that was on the Twins at the end of 2014, what happened to them, and which new players were brought in to change the outlook of this team. Infielders: Joe Mauer: Mauer has remained the starting first baseman, and saw his number bounce back after a poor showing in 2014. His batting average has been comfortably around .300 and he has hit 13 homers each of the last two years. He won a gold glove award in 2015. Brian Dozier: Dozier solidified himself as one of the Twins top positions players. He has now had three consecutive 20-20 seasons, and saw his batting average climb to the .260 range. Danny Santana: Santana regressed some after an incredible 2014, but he still hits around .280 and has had some decent pop. His defense has improved drastically since being moved to shortstop permanently at the start of 2015. Eduardo Escobar: Escobar was the Twins starting third baseman for the first half of 2015. He showed some talent, but ultimately failed to reproduce the type of offensive numbers he put up in 2014. Since Miguel Sano's callup, Escobar has filled a super-utility role. He's worked hard on his outfield defense and is now a plus defender at second, short, third, left, and center. Trevor Plouffe: Following the 2014 season, Plouffe, Pinto, and Eddie Rosario were part of a three-team trade that brought Gio Gonzalez to Minnesota. Eduardo Nunez: Nunez was claimed off wavers shortly after the July 31 trade deadline in 2015. Once it was apparent Sano would stick at third base he was deemed expendable. Kennys Vargas: Vargas has been the Twins primary DH and has worked hard on his plate discipline. He still strikes out a ton, but he walks more now. 2016 was his first career 30HR season. Miguel Sano: After being called up in July 2015, Sano managed to hit 18HR during the second half. This year, he finished the year with 43HR, most in the American League. Jorge Polanco: Polanco was called up by the Twins in September, 2015 and has been a part of the team ever since. It is clear he has the tools to be an everyday player, so it is unclear what the Twins will do with him and their other infielders this offseason. Chris Colabello: The Twins non-tendered Colabello after 2014. He signed a minor league deal with Oakland, made the team, and was their primary DH the whole year. The Athletics went on to win the 2015 World Series. Outfielders: Oswaldo Arcia: After switching back to left field in 2015, Arcia became an average defender. He still has trouble making consistent contact at the plate, but has hit 30HR each of the past two seasons. Aaron Hicks: Hicks has been the Twins 4th outfielder for the past two years and has acted as a late-inning defensive replacement for Arcia. Jordan Schafer: Schafer began 2015 with the Minnesota Twins, but was released in June of that year. Torii Hunter: Hunter was signed to a one-year deal to play right field in 2015. Following the season, he retired, although some sources claim he is considering coming back for the 2017 season. Colby Rasmus: The Twins signed Rasmus to a one-year deal as a stop-gap CF for 2015. He performed very well and earned a three-year extension to be the Twins right fielder. Byron Buxton: Despite pressure from fans, Buxton was not called up until September 2015. He was then the opening day centerfielder in 2016. He is considered a lock to win AL rookie of the year and is expected to keep getting better. Chris Parmelee: Parmelee was non-tendered following the 2014 season. Catchers: Kurt Suzuki: Suzuki was adequate in 2015, but saw his offensive numbers take a toll this season. He has since moved to a bench role. With prospect Mitch Garver ready to debut next year, it is likely his time with the Twins has come to a close. Chris Herrmann: Herrmann acted as Suzuki's backup in 2015. He played AAA ball for the Twins in 2016 and will likely be back on a minor league contract next year. Eric Fryer: Fryer was non-tendered following the 2014 season. Josmil Pinto: Pinto was traded along with Plouffe and Rosario in the deal that brought Gonzalez to the Twins. Steward Turner: Turner started 2016 as Suzuki's backup, but has since taken over as the starting catcher. His defense is amazing but his bat leaves more to be desired. Starting Pitchers: Phil Hughes: Hughes signed a four-year extension with the Minnesota Twins after putting up a 3.15 ERA in 2015. He is expected to be the anchor of the team for several more years. Ricky Nolasco: After the 2015 season, Nolasco was moved to the bullpen. Although he hasn't been as bad as in 2014, his ERA has been around 4.75 each of the last two years. Tommy Milone: Milone pitched to a 3.50 ERA during the first half of 2015. He was then traded back to Oakland, who won the 2015 World Series. Trevor May: May worked on his control and has become a quality starting pitcher. He still walks about 3.5 batters per 9 innings, but his K/9 rate has been above 10 in each of the last two seasons. Alex Meyer: Called up mid-season in 2015, Meyer is the reason Nolasco spent 2016 in the bullpen. He hasn't been dominant, but did post an ERA of 3.95 this year. He also missed about a month with a shoulder injury. Logan Darnell: Darnell has been a member of the Twins bullpen since the start of 2015, effectively taking over Brian Duensing's role and producing similar results. Gio Gonzalez: Gonzalez has been the Twins #2 starter since being acquired from the Nationals. He made a seamless transition to the American League and it is expected the Twins will pick up at least the first of his option years. Kyle Gibson: Gibson has made some great strides since 2014, and now looks like a top of the rotation arm. Yohan Pino: Pino retired from baseball after complications returning from injury in 2015. Kris Johnson: Johnson still plays Minor League ball for the Twins. Relief Pitchers: Anthony Swarzak: Swarzak was non-tendered following the 2014 season. He signed a minor league deal with the Pirates, who converted him back to a starter. After spending all of 2015 in AAA, he won 17 games this year. Aaron Thompson: Thompson was non-tendered following the 2014 season. Mike Pelfrey: Pelfrey took over Swarzak's role in 2015, he had some success and was traded at the August 31 deadline. Caleb Theilbar: Theilbar was non-tendered following the 2015 season. AJ Achter: Achter has remained with the Twins, occasionally filling in when someone gets injured. He has spent most of the last two seasons at AAA. Glen Perkins: Perkins came back from his injury pitching like one of the best closers in baseball. He was an all-star in 2015 and 2016. Casey Fien: Fien was the Twins setup man in 2015, but was non-tendered after again falling apart during August and September. Jared Burton: The Twins bought out Burton's contract after 2014. Ryan Pressly: Pressly spent 2015 in the bullpen, but was non-tendered after posting an ERA north of 5. Michael Tonkin: Tonkin pitched very well during the 2015 and 2016 seasons and was traded in July to make room for Chargois. Lester Oliveros: Oliveros pitched for the Twins in 2015, but struggled mightily. He was signed to a minor league contract last offseason. Nick Burdi: Nick Burdi became the Twins primary setup man when Fien fell apart towards the end of 2015. He thrived in that role in 2016. JT Chargois: Chargois has handled the 7th inning for the Twins since July, giving the Twins a late inning trio that rivals that of the 2014 Kansas City Royals. Mason Melotakis: In his rookie season, Melotakis has been a dominant lefty specialist for the Twins all year. Jose Berrios: Taking a page from the Cardinals book, the Twins used Berrios out of the bullpen this year. He filled in during Meyer's shoulder injury and is expected to compete for a rotation spot next year. Clearly, it has been a busy few years for the Minnesota Twins, but I am excited to see how they perform in the playoffs this year. The Yankees lost 85 games this year, so that should definitely help.

The Twins are closer than they seem. Santana, Vargas, Arcia, Sano and Buxton are going to lead this team somewhere. I see no reason why the Twins can't be aggressive this off-season and make it happen. If the Twins trade for an outfielder and a starting pitcher, the boost we would receive mid-summer with the arrival of Buxton and Sano could give them what they need to be a legitimate playoff contender. I have selected my top five trade candidates for both pitcher and outfielder. Obviously, some are more realistic than others.Pitchers: 1. Cole Hamels Hamels has four years plus an option year left at $22.5 million each. He would be tough to get, but the Phillies are going to need a youth movement soon, so he may be obtainable. 2. Andrew Cashner Cashner will be a free agent in 2017, but could potentially be extended. This year, he made $2.4 million. He is a solid pitcher and wouldn't increase the payroll quite as much as Hamels. He could also be harder to obtain, however. 3. Gio Gonzalez Gonzalez is a great pitcher, but the Nationals have so many great pitchers that they could afford to deal from strength. This trade would probably cause the Twins to give up more than they want to. His contract is quite nice, with two more guaranteed years (at $11 and $12 million), followed by two options. 4. Jon Niese I've heard some talk that the Mets could deal Niese this off-season. He would pair nicely at the front of our rotation with Hughes. He has a similar contract structure to Gonzalez for a couple million less per year. 5. Ian Kennedy Kennedy will be a free agents after one more season, so the Twins would only want him with the idea of extending him, but I think he is good enough to be an effective pitcher. He also wouldn't be as hard as the others to pry from his current team. Outfielders: 1. Mookie Betts Man would I love to have this guy. The Red Sox don't need him due to their abundance of prospects, but it would take a haul to bring him to Minnesota. Once Buxton gets here, the Twins would need to decide which center fielder to play in left--not necessarily a bad choice to have to make. 2. Sterling Marte This is probably the most unrealistic trade I've proposed, but it's OK to dream, right? He's under control for five more years plus two option years. 3. Carl Crawford The Dodgers have too many outfielders. I actually think this trade might be quite possible. His contract has three more years at just over $20 million per year. 4. Scott Van Slyke Like Crawford, only younger and cheaper, Van Slyke won't be a free agent until 2020 and it is seems very redundant for the Dodgers to hold on to him. 5. Ryan Zimmerman Like the Dodgers, the Nationals have plenty of outfielders. This is probably another unrealistic trade, but Zimmerman is under contract until 2019 and the Nationals may not want him to be one of their full-time outfielders. He currently makes $14 million per year. Now, the obvious question is how I would acquire these players. I would be with being aggressive if I'm the GM of the Twins. I would be willing to consider trading Pinto, Escobar, Plouffe, Dozier, May, and any bullpen arm from the major league squad. As far as prospects, I would love to see us trade Eddie Rosario, and would be willing to trade a lower-level high upside arm as part of the right deal--perhaps Felix Jorge or Fernando Romero. For pitchers, I would love to see the Twins acquire Hamels. It would be fair to give up some pretty good prospects to make this to happen. In the outfield, as much as I would love Mookie Betts in a Twins uniform, I think trading for Carl Crawford or Scott Van Slyke would not be too difficult and would put the Twins in a great position offensively. The Dodgers should have interest in Pinto based on the quality of offense their catchers have put out this year. Maybe they would even take Nolasco's contract as part of the deal to help balance Crawford's contract. Click here to view the article

The Twins are closer than they seem. Santana, Vargas, Arcia, Sano and Buxton are going to lead this team somewhere. I see no reason why the Twins can't be aggressive this off-season and make it happen. I think if the Twins trade for an outfielder and a starting pitcher, the boost we would receive mid-summer with the arrival of Buxton and Sano could give the them what they need to be a legitimate playoff contender. I have selected my top five trade candidates for both pitcher and outfielders. Obviously, some are more realistic than others. Pitchers: 1. Cole Hamels. Hamels 4 years plus an option left at $22.5 million apiece. He would be tough to get, but the Phillies are going to need a youth movement soon, so he may be obtainable. 2. Andrew Cashner. Cashner will be a free agent in 2017, but could potentially be extended. This year, he made $2.4 million. He'd be a solid pitcher and wouldn't increase the payroll quite as much as Hamels. He could also be harder to obtain, however. 3. Gio Gonzalez. Gonzalez is a great pitcher, but the Nationals have so many great pitchers that they could afford to deal from strength. This trade would probably cause the Twins to give up more than they want to. His contract is quite nice, with two more guaranteed years (at $11 and $12 million) followed by two options. 4. Jon Niese. I've heard some talk that the Mets could deal Niese this offseason. He would pair nicely at the front of our rotation. He has a similar contract structure to Gonzalez for a couple million less per year. 5. Ian Kennedy. Kennedy will be a free agents after one more season, so I would only want him with the idea of extending him, but I think he is good enough to be an effective pitcher. He also wouldn't be as hard as the others to pry from his current team. Outfielders: 1. Mookie Betts. Man would I love to have this guy. The Red Sox don't need him due to their abundance of prospects, but it would take a haul to bring him to Minnesota. Once Buxton gets here, the Twins would have to decide which center fielder to play in left-not necessarily a bad choice to make. 2. Sterling Marte. This is probably the most unrealistic trade I've proposed, but it's OK to dream, right? He's under control for five more years plus two option years. 3. Carl Crawford. The Dodgers have too many outfielders. I actually think this trade would be quite possible. His contract has three more years at just over $20 million per year. 4. Scott Van Slyke. Like Carl Crawford only younger and cheaper. Van Slyke won't be a free agent until 2020 and it is very redundant for the Dodgers to hold on to him. 5. Ryan Zimmerman. Like the Dodgers, the Nationals have plenty of outfielders. This is probably another unrealistic trade, but Zimmerman is under contract until 2019 and the Nationals may not want him to be one of their full time outfielders. He currently makes $14 million per year. Now, the obvious question is how I would acquire these players. I'm OK with being aggressive if I'm the GM of the Twins. I would be willing to at least consider trading Pinto, Escobar, Plouffe, Dozier, May, or any bullpen arm from the major league squad. As far as prospects, I would love to see us trade Eddie Rosario, and would be willing to trade a lower-level high upside arm as part of the right deal (for example, Felix Jorge or Fernando Romero). For pitchers, I would love to see the Twins acquire Hamels. It would be OK to give up some pretty good prospects for this to happen. In the outfield, as much as I would love Mookie Betts to be a Twin, I think trading for Carl Crawford or Scott Van Slyke would not be too difficult and would put the Twins in a great position offensively. The Dodgers should have interest in Pinto based on the quality of offense their catchers have put out this year, and maybe they would even take Nolasco's contract as part of the deal (to balance Crawford's contract for example).

Let's face it, there isn't much left to talk about in terms of the Twins and their 2014 season. We know the story all too well at this point. Worst starting pitcher ERA in all of baseball, last place in the AL Central, can never seem to get a hit with runners on base, etc. This tired story has caused me, like many of you, to care way more about the future than the present. In this post, I am attempting to answer a simple question: Which players look OK to stick with in 2015 and which players could use a replacement, or at least some competition?I went on Fangraphs and looked at all the Twins hitters who have compiled 100 or more PA this year. This amounts to 18 players, four of whom are not with the Twins in any capacity and one of whom is currently in the minor leagues. I looked at wOBA, wRC+, and WAR, since I think those three stats do the best job of describing a player's total value. Since WAR is not a rate stat, I calculated what each player's WAR would be in 500 plate appearances. This probably isn't the best measurement, but it will serve my purpose. I have ranked the players based on wOBA, since I feel this statistic is the best description of a player's value. I have included each player's wOBA, wRC+, and WAR/500PA in parentheses. I've also supplied their ages, when they are eligible for arbitration, if applicable, and when they are eligible for free agency, per Baseball-Reference. Danny Santana (.364/134/3.1) Age: 23 (2017/2020)Kennys Vargas (.356/128/2.0) Age: 24 (2017/2020)Jordan Schafer (.354/127/6.2) Age: 28 (Current/2017)Brian Dozier (.342/119/3.5) Age: 27 (2016/2019)Josmil Pinto (.341/118/1.2) Age: 25 (2017/2020)Josh Willingham (.328/109/1.4) Age: 35( FA 2015)Trevor Plouffe (.328/108/3.0) Age: 28 (Current/2018)Sam Fuld (.327/108/3.9) Age: 32 (Current/2017)Kurt Suzuki (.327/108/2.0) Age: 30 (FA 2017)Joe Mauer (.321/104/1.6) Age: 31 (FA 2019)Oswaldo Arcia (.317/101/1.0) Age: 23 (2017/2020)Eduardo Escobar (.315/100/2.4) Age: 25 (2015/2019)Chris Parmelee (.304/92/-0.2) Age: 26 (2016/2019)Eduardo Nunez (.304/92/1.6) Age: 27 (2015/2018)Chris Colabello (.293/84/-2.3) Age: 30 (2017/2020)Aaron Hicks (.288/81/-0.6) Age: 24 (2017/2020)Jason Kubel (.278/-1.1/-3.1) Age: 33 (No Contract)Kendrys Morales (.255/58/-0.8) Age: 31 (FA 2015)Well, I can say I'm happy we got rid of Kubel and Morales. Also I think Colabello may not be seen in a Twins uniform again. I feel sorry for him because I wanted him to become an incredible player, but baseball is a business. I'm going to break down,by position, the players still on the Twins roster to make for easy analysis. Outfielders: Is Schafer going to be a 6 WAR player? I seriously doubt it. But at 28, he isn't really that old and I think he has shown that he can be better than he was in Atlanta. I respect anybody who says that Schafer should be nothing more than a 4th OF, but by the numbers, he's been our best outfielder this year. So even if there is regression, he has to be legitimately discussed as a starting option. I hope Arcia figures it out, but it's been frustrating to watch him this year. Every time he seems to figure something out I feel like he regresses right away. I think if Arcia can't figure out how to hit more consistently he's going to be in major trouble. It is excusable to play a poor defender in right field, but only if they can out-hit their defensive woes, and I just haven't seen enough of that from Arcia. I think Hicks deserves another chance, but I think he's on thin ice. I'm actually much more sold on Schafer than Hicks right now, and Schafer is only 4 years older. Especially with Buxton in the minors, I think Hicks needs to perform very well next year if he ever wants to make an impact for the Twins. I think it's time to give up on Parmelee. I always wanted him to succeed, but I just don't see anything to indicate he will outplay his current numbers. Infielders: A note for Twins management: I'm considering Santana and Nunez as infielders regardless of what your lineups and rosters say. Until somebody invents a stat for expected regression rate, Danny Santana is the man. He is exactly the type of player who should hit on top of the Twins lineup (or any lineup for that matter). Put him at short, where his defensive rating will increase even if they are still slightly below average, and we could be looking at a darn good player here. Of course, if Danny Santana is our shortstop, what does that mean for Escobar? I have been a huge Escobar fan all year and think he has done nothing to justify the loss of his job, but as the title indicates, I'm going by the numbers. Offensively, Escobar has been average. Now, for a shortstop, average is good, especially when 2.4 WAR would be generated in 500 PA, but Santana is simply better. Unfortunately, so is Plouffe and so is Dozier. I think Escobar is too good to be a bench player, but the Twins infield, weirdly enough, is actually very solid right now. Maybe this means he's trade bait. I can definitely see why Gardy plays Santana in the outfield, whether I agree or not. In terms of WAR/500 PA, there are three infielders better than Santana and only one outfielder. Nunez has actually turned out to be a pretty good bench player. C/1B/DH: Like Danny Santana, many people don't trust Vargas so sustain his numbers, but a .356 wOBA would look pretty dang good at the middle of any lineup. As we all would have thought, Pinto is a much better choice in terms of offense than Suzuki, but because of his defensive problems, he still rates lower in terms of WAR. He also doesn't have the bat to boot Vargas out of his spot. I like Pinto as a backup catcher, and he can DH on days Mauer has off, so I do think he can contribute to next year's Twins. He's been our 6th best hitter this year; he needs to be in the lineup. Mauer, I hope, can only get better. I have no problem with giving Arcia another shot, and I think Schafer has earned some playing time as well. Hicks should be in the mix, but it depends on how September goes. With Schafer and Hicks able to play center, it is not necessary that a FA signing be a center fielder, but I think that FA would need to be capable of solid defense at the corner spots. Other than that there really isn't much need for offense. I would be content if the Twins broke camp with these 13. Outfield: Schafer, Hicks, Arcia, Free Agent Signing Infield: Santana, Dozier, Plouffe, Escobar, Nunez C/1B/DH: Suzuki, Pinto, Mauer, Vargas Let me know your thoughts and thanks for reading! Click here to view the article

Let's face it, there isn't much left to talk about in terms of the Twins and their 2014 season. We know the story all too well at this point. Worst starting pitcher ERA in all of baseball, last place in the AL Central, can never seem to get a hit with runners on base, etc. This tired story has caused me, like many of you, to care way more about the future than the present. In this post, I am attempting to answer a simple question: Which players look OK to stick with in 2015 and which players could use a replacement (or at least some competition)? I went on Fangraphs and looked at all the Twins hitters who have compiled 100 or more PA this year. This accounts for 18 players (4 of which are not with the Twins in any capacity and 1 of which is currently in the minor leagues). I looked at wOBA, wRC+, and WAR, since I think those three stats do the best job of describing someone's total value. Since WAR is not a rate stat, I calculated what each players WAR would be in 500 plate appearances. This probably isn't the best measurement, but it will serve its purpose. I have ranked the players based on wOBA, since I feel that statistic is the best description of a player's value. I have included each player's wOBA, wRC+, and WAR/500PA in parentheses. I've also supplied their ages, when they are eligible for arbitration (if applicable), and when they are eligible for free agency (as per Baseball-Reference). Danny Santana(.364/134/3.1) Age 23(2017/2020) Kennys Vargas(.356/128/2.0) Age 24(2017/2020) Jordan Schafer(.354/127/6.2) Age 28(Current/2017) Brian Dozier(.342/119/3.5) Age 27(2016/2019) Josmil Pinto(.341/118/1.2) Age 25(2017/2020) Josh Willingham(.328/109/1.4) Age 35(FA 2015) Trevor Plouffe(.328/108/3.0) Age 28(Current/2018) Sam Fuld(.327/108/3.9) Age 32(Current/2017) Kurt Suzuki(.327/108/2.0) Age 30(FA 2017) Joe Mauer(.321/104/1.6) Age 31(FA 2019) Oswaldo Arcia(.317/101/1.0) Age 23(2017/2020) Eduardo Escobar(.315/100/2.4) Age 25(2015/2019) Chris Parmelee(.304/92/-0.2) Age 26(2016/2019) Eduardo Nunez(.304/92/1.6) Age 27(2015/2018) Chris Colabello(.293/84/-2.3) Age 30(2017/2020) Aaron Hicks(.288/81/-0.6) Age 24(2017/2020) Jason Kubel(.278/-1.1/-3.1) Age 33(No Contract) Kendrys Morales(.255/58/-0.8) Age 31(FA 2015) Well I can say I'm happy we got rid of Kubel and Morales. Also I think Colabello may not be seen in a Twins uniform again. I feel sorry for him because I wanted him to become an incredible player, but baseball is a business. I'm going to break the players still on the Twins roster down by position to make for easy analysis: Outfielders: Is Schafer going to be a 6 WAR player? I seriously doubt it. But at 28, he isn't really that old and I think he has shown that he can be better than he was in Atlanta. I respect anybody who says that Schafer should be nothing more than a 4th OF, but by the numbers, he's been our best outfielder this year; so even if there is regression, he has to be legitimately discussed as a starting option. I hope Arcia figures it out, but it's been frustrating to watch him this year. Every time he seems to figure something out I feel like he regresses right away. I think if Arcia can't figure out how to hit more consistently he's going to be in major trouble. It is excusable to play a poor defender in right field, but only if they can out hit their defensive woes, and I just haven't seen enough of that from Arcia. I think Hicks deserves another chance, but I think he's on thin ice. I'm actually much more sold on Schafer than Hicks right now, and Schafer is only 4 years older. Especially with Buxton in the minors, I think Hicks needs to perform very well next year if he ever wants to make an impact for the Twins. I think it's time to give up on Parmelee. I always wanted him to succeed, but I just don't see anything to indicate he will outplay his current numbers. Infielders: A note for Twins management: I'm considering Santana and Nunez as infielders regardless what your lineups and rosters say. Until somebody invents a stat for expected regression rate, Danny Santana is the man. He is exactly the type of player who should hit on top of the Twins lineup (or any lineup for that matter). Put him at short, where his defensive rating will increase even if they are still slightly below average, and we could be looking at a darn good player here. Of course, if Danny Santana is our shortstop, what does that mean for Escobar? I have been a huge Escobar fan all year long and think he has done nothing to justify the loss of his job, but as the title indicates, I'm going by the numbers. Offensively, Escobar has been average. Now, for a shortstop, average is good, especially when 2.4 WAR would be generated in 500 PA, but Santana is simply better. Unfortunately, so is Plouffe and so is Dozier. I think Escobar is too good to be a bench player, but the Twins infield, weirdly enough, is actually very solid right now. Maybe this means he's trade bait. I can definitely see why Gardy plays Santana in the outfield, whether I agree or not. In terms of WAR/500 PA, there are 3 infielders better than Santana and only 1 outfielder. Nunez has actually turned out to be a pretty good bench player. C/1B/DH: Like Danny Santana, many people don't trust Vargas so sustain his numbers, but a .356 wOBA would look pretty dang good at the middle of any lineup. As we all would have thought, Pinto is a much better choice in terms of offense than Suzuki, but because of his defensive problems, he still rates lower in terms of WAR. He also doesn't have the bat to boot Vargas out of his spot. I like Pinto as a backup catcher, and he can DH on days Mauer has off, so I do think he can contribute to next year's Twins. He's been our 6th best hitter this year; he needs to be in the lineup. Mauer, I hope, can only get better. Well, the outfield could use some help. I have no problem with giving Arcia another shot, and I think Schafer has earned some playing time as well. Hicks should be in the mix, but it depends on how September goes. With Schafer and Hicks able to play center, it is not necessary that a FA signing be a centerfielder, but I think they would need to be capable of solid defense at the corner spots. Other than that there really isn't much need for offense. I would be content if the Twins broke camp with these 13 (again note to the management, the Twins should have 13 hitters): Outfield: Schafer, Hicks, Arcia, Free-Agent Signing Infield: Santana, Dozier, Plouffe, Escobar, Nunez C/1B/DH: Suzuki, Pinto, Mauer, Vargas Let me know your thoughts and thanks for reading!

Let's face it, every Twins fan is getting tired of watching the poor play of the past couple years. We know the future looks bright as we await the arrival of some of baseballs top prospects, but that does not help the situation on the field right now. The fact of it is, the Twins are lousy again this year and, like usual, it looks like the starting rotation is to blame. Everybody has their own theory on how the Twins can end the losing. A common theme I keep hearing is some version of "I think it's time the Twins spend some money and sign some impact players!" I love the spirit of that argument, but if it were so easy, why wouldn't the Twins have done it by now? On Monday, I took a look at the top "impact" starting pitchers in baseball and how their current teams acquired them. If you missed it, here's the link: http://twinsdaily.co...rting-pitching/ Today, I'm going to take a look at the top position players in baseball and see how they came to play for their current teams. I tried to look at the players a contending team could build their lineup around. The players I am looking at are those that have at least 400 plate appearances (350 for catchers) and lead the league in wOBA (top 5 for C, IF, CF; top 10 for corner OF; top 3 for DH). I sorted the players the same way as I did pitchers on Monday and included each players wOBA and wRC+ for reference. All data comes from Fangraphs. Group 1: Free Agent Acquisitions C Russell Martin(.371/140), 2B Robinson Cano(.372/141), 3B Adrian Beltre(.383/140), 3B Aramis Ramirez(.356/125), SS Jhonny Peralta(.350/125), OF Jayson Werth(.364/132), OF Melky Cabrera(.364/130), OF Michael Morse(.358/135), DH Victor Martinez(.398/155), DH David Ortiz (.373/136), DH Nelson Cruz (.359/128) This accounts for 11 of the 43 players I examined, or just over 1/4. This is significantly higher than the 15% observed amongst pitchers. I believe this reflects the fact that most teams value starting pitching more than any other aspect of the game, so position players are simply less likely to be signed to multi-year extensions before hitting the free agent market. It is interesting that all three of the top DHs were acquired as free agents. Group 2: Non-Drafted Free Agents 1B Jose Abreu(.410/162), 2B Jose Altuve(.355/128), SS Starlin Castro(.335/111), SS Alexi Ramirez(.327/105), OF Yasiel Puig(.387/152) This group only accounts for 5/43 (11%) "impact" hitters, significantly less than I expected. Abreu and Puig were extremely high risk signings, and the fact that they have both have had so much success will probably increase the price of signing Cuban defectors. I worry that this will lead to inflated contracts that teams will ultimately get stuck with when one of these players turns out to be a bust. Group 3: Drafted by Current Organization C Jonathan Lucroy(.373/136), C Evan Gattis(.367/135), C Buster Posey(.349/129), 1B Paul Goldschmidt(.402/155), 1B Freddie Freeman(.381/146), 2B Neil Walker(.356/129), 2B Brian Dozier(.339/115), 3B Kyle Seager(.356/130), 3B Lonnie Chisenhall(.356/130), CF Andrew McCutchen(.406/164), CF Mike Trout(.401/164), CF Matt Kemp(.352/128), OF Giancarlo Stanton(.409/163), OF Kole Calhoun(.360/136) Again, more players were acquired through the draft than any other medium, with about a third of "impact" players being acquired in this way. This is the same percentage as observed when looking at starting pitchers. It makes sense that teams want to wrap their best players up long-term rather than allowing them to become free agents. Group 4: Acquired via Trade C Derek Norris(.360/130), 1B Edwin Encarnacion(.393/150), 1B Anthony Rizzo(.386/146), 2B Ben Zobrist(.346/126), 3B Josh Harrison(.361/133), SS Jose Reyes(.331/107), CF Carlos Gomez(.368/133), CF Adam Jones(.343/116), OF Jose Bautista(.388/147), OF Justin Upton(.387/149), OF Seth Smith(.383/150), OF Michael Brantley(.379/147) Again, this category combines players traded as prospects and as major league players, and it accounts for 12/43, or 28% of "impact" hitters. This is just slightly smaller than the number for starting pitchers and remains significantly higher than the percentage of players acquired through the free agent market. Group 5: Acquired via Posting Process None of the players I examined were acquired this way. The results here are nearly identical as those for pitchers. Drafting and developing talent is, again, the best way to obtain impact players, with the trade market being the second best route. I was curious so I looked at our two sensational rookies (Santana and Vargas). If they had enough at bats, Santana would rank 3rd amongst centerfielders and Vargas would rank 2nd amongst DHs, which I think is pretty cool. I guess offensively the key is patience for the Twins. I think they have shown a ton of improvement this year and hopefully will over the next couple of years as well. My overall conclusion is that it is not possible to rely exclusively on free agency to build a team; drafting and trading are both more important. Let me know what you think and thank you for reading!

I don't think the outfield is the place for Plouffe...if our rotation is ever going to lower its ERA, we're going to need actual defenders in the outfield. In three outfield positions, it's okay to have one weak link (Arcia), but the other two had better be pretty darn good defenders. This means Plouffe, Pinto, and Parmelee aren't really the best options. Maybe Schafer and Hicks are the answer, I'm sure a lot of people would disagree, but every team needs people to hit in the 8 and 9 spots of the lineup, and that would be a way to really help the defense. Hopefully by mid-season whoever is performing worse between the two is swapped out for Buxton. We could also look for a better option through the trade market or free agency, but it would have to be a defense-first player. Once Sano comes up, if he proves himself to be the true third baseman of the future, Plouffe becomes expendable, and should be traded.

Let's face it, every Twins fan is getting tired of watching the poor play of the past couple years. We know the future looks bright as we await the arrival of some of baseballs top prospects, but that does not help the situation on the field right now. The fact of it is, the Twins are lousy again this year and, like usual, it looks like the starting rotation is to blame. Everybody has their own theory on how the Twins can end the losing. A common theme I keep hearing is some version of "I think it's time the Twins spend some money and sign some impact players!" I love the spirit of that argument, but if it were so easy, why wouldn't the Twins have done it by now? This is my first post in a short series that will look at whether or not it is even possible to find impact players in a free agent market. I begin where the Twins struggle most, in the starting rotation. Using Fangraphs, I looked at all the starting pitchers that I would call impact players based on their performance this season. I limited my search to qualifiers, because pitchers who haven't qualified haven't really made that large of an impact. The only two stats I really focused on were ERA and FIP. I know ERA is not a perfect statistic, but sometimes actual results are as important as theoretical results. In forming a team, I would feel confident using any of these players as a Number 2 or Ace (based only on their performance this year). I have divided them into five groups based on how their current team acquired them: Note: after ever name I will provide this seasons ERA/FIP in parentheses. Group 1: Free Agent Acquisitions Phil Hughes(3.65, 2.62), Zack Greinke(2.79, 3.14), Scott Kazmir(3.08, 3.42), Ervin Santana(3.60, 3.32), Tim Hudson(2.99, 3.51) This group accounts for 5/34 players, or just under 15%. The fact that only 15% of "impact" pitchers were acquired through the free agent market is enough to indicate it is probably not the best way to find top pitching talent. I'm happy to see the Twins own one of these five players. Interestingly, four of these five players signed last offseason, despite the free agent class being considered weak in terms of pitching. It is also worth noting that not all of these pitchers play for large market teams, despite the fact that large market teams tend to attract more expensive free agents. Group 2: Non-Drafed Free Agents Felix Hernandez(2.07, 2.23), Jose Quintana(3.25, 2.85), Johnny Cueto(2.20, 3.25), Hisashi Iwakuma(2.83, 3.04), Julio Teheran(2.96, 3.52) Again just 5/34 or just under 15%. Throw in the fact that Hisashi Iwakuma tried to sign via the posting process but had no luck, so he was actually major league ready when acquired. The fact that only 4 international free agents are still with their original teams and having terrific seasons seems low to me. Group 3: Drafted by Current Organization Clayton Kershaw(2.53, 2.63), Chris Sale(2.03, 2.44), Garrett Richards(2.61, 2.61), Jordan Zimmermann(2.93, 2.81), Dallas Keuchel(3.12, 3.25), Cole Hamels(2.53, 3.01), Stephen Strasburg(3.59, 3.14), Lance Lynn(2.78, 3.07), Madison Bumgarner(3.17, 3.00), Rick Porcello(3.09, 3.55), Sonny Gray(3.00, 3.42) As expected, more of our "impact" pitchers were acquired through the draft than any other medium. This represents 11/34, or around 1/3 of the players being analyzed. This provides evidence that drafting and developing pitching talent should remain the top priority for all ballclubs. Group 4: Acquired via Trade Corey Kluber(2.46, 2.48), Jon Lester(2.53, 2.63), Max Scherzer(3.13, 2.82), David Price(3.00, 2.93), Adam Wainwright(2.52, 2.80), Chris Archer(3.09, 3.02), James Shields(3.28, 3.69), Jeff Samardzija(3.27, 3.45), Mark Buehrle(3.41, 3.82), Tyson Ross(2.68, 3.29) Almost as large as the group of players drafted by their current organization, 10/34 "impact" pitchers (about 30%) were acquired via trade. Maybe this group is too general, as some of these players were acquired as prospects and other are more rentals, but it appears that the second most effective way to find good starting pitching is by trading. Group 5: Acquired via Posting Process Yu Darvish(3.06, 2.85), Masahiro Tanaka(2.51, 3.07), Hyun-Jin Ryu(3.28, 2.77) All three of these pitchers have worked out quite well (as has Iwakuma), but they should all be considered high-risk signings. It is impossible to know how successful a player who has never pitched in the majors will fare, and this is a much more substantial agreement (in both years and dollars) than drafting or signing young, undeveloped talent. I believe the reason that only 3/34(9%) of "impact" pitchers were acquired this way is because the number of players talented enough to be worth the risk is so low. I guess after looking at the numbers, it is possible to find a free agent pitcher capable of high-level play, but it is easier to rely on drafting, trade for prospects, and rent aces from other teams. This doesn't mean every free agent signing is bad, but rather than it looks like us Twins fans are going to have to wait for our prospects (like Meyer, Berrios, and Stewart) to make an impact before we can do much more than continue to fill the back of the rotation. Maybe by 2015 or 2016 we will have a strong enough foundation to look into aggressively persuing pitchers through the trade market, but until then, I recommend patience. Feel free to add your own thoughts/add any players I may have forgotten. I'll be back with a look at "impact" hitters as soon as I have time to do some more research. Thanks for reading!