RealTwinsFan357

I've been reading (and partaking in) some awesome debates on Twins Daily lately. One of my favorite topics has been the discussion about whether to trade Plouffe for a C/SS and open up 3B for Sano. I have also enjoyed reading and thinking about topics such as whether Hunter should be re-signed, whether Hicks should play RF next year, etc. I decided that I would look at some statistics regarding the Twins offensive production and try to pinpoint exactly what the Twins biggest weaknesses are. The statistics I chose are Fangraphs's WAR and wRC+. This decision is somewhat arbitrary, but I think these two statistics are the best at gauging overall value. My goal is to examine where Twins players (with at least 100PA) line up with other players (also with at least 100PA) at their position. I let Fangraphs decide which players qualified for which position, thus sometimes multiple players qualify at multiple positions. I also examined where a few players would be if they switched positions. For each player, I will give their WAR, wRC+, rank, and percentile at each position they qualify for.* The Data: Kurt Suzuki: -0.3 WAR (53/54-4th percentile at C), 58 wRC+ (44/54-20th percentile at C) Joe Mauer: 0.0 WAR(38/54-31st percentile at 1B), 91 wRC+ (34/54-39th percentile at 1B) Kennys Vargas: -0.5 WAR(18/22-23rd percentile at DH, 46/54-17th percentile at 1B), 75 wRC+ (20/22-14th percentile at DH, 46/54-17th percentile at 1B) Brian Dozier: 3.2 WAR(4/50-94th percentile at 2B), 122 wRC+ (9/50-84th percentile at 2B) Trevor Plouffe: 2.4 WAR(12/52-79th percentile at 3B), 110 wRC+ (18/52-67th percentile at 3B) Eduardo Escobar: -0.6 WAR(43/48-13th percentile at SS, 66/75-13th percentile at LF), 80 wRC+ (29/48-42nd percentile at SS, 60/75-21st percentile at LF) Eduardo Nunez: 0.4 WAR(28/48-44th percentile at SS, 12/22-50th percentile at DH), 92 wRC+ (17/48-67th percentile at SS, 15/22-36th percentile at DH) Danny Santana: -1.2 WAR(48/48-2nd percentile at SS), 43 wRC+ (43/45, 8th percentile at SS) Eddie Rosario: 1.2 WAR(22/75-72nd percentile at LF, 22/53-60th percentile at RF), 100 wRC+ (38/75-51st percentile at LF, 28/53-49th percentile at RF) Shane Robinson: 0.2 WAR(48/75-37th percentile at LF), 67 wRC+ (66/75-13th percentile at LF) Aaron Hicks: 1.5 WAR(20/49-61st percentile at CF), 103 wRC+ (22/49-57th percentile at CF) Torii Hunter: 0.9 WAR(28/53-49th percentile at RF), 99 wRC+(29/53-47th percentile at RF) Miguel Sano: 0.8 WAR(9/22-64th percentile at DH), 160 wRC+(2/22-95th percentile at DH) I also examined where a few players would rank at different positions: Miguel Sano: 0.8 WAR(24/50-54th percentile at 3B), 160 wRC+ (2/50, 98th percentile at 3B) Aaron Hicks: 1.5 WAR(19/53-66th percentile at RF), 103 wRC+ (26/53-53rd percentile at RF) Torii Hunter: 0.9 WAR(7/22-73rd percentile at DH), 99 wRC+ (13/22-45th percentile at DH) Conclusions: Overall, I have to say I'm disappointed with almost the entire Twins offense. Only Dozier and Sano are top 10 talents at their respective positions, Plouffe is a borderline top 15 third baseman, and if we consider the top 30 players the "starting-level" talent at each position (15 players for DH), no other player is in the top half at any position (although it is possible Rosario could be if I had only allowed players to qualify for one position). Again using 30 as an arbitrary cutoff for being considered "starting-level", the Twins do not have a "starting-level" player at C or 1B. At SS and all 3 outfield positions, the best player we have is rated in the 20s. Clearly, something needs to be done about this offense. It is curious to see that moving Hicks to RF would actually increase his positional rank when it comes to WAR. This must be because RF contains a lot of below average fielders. Once we consider that Hicks's defensive will probably improve even more with the shift away form center field, it looks like he could be a top 15 talent in the corner. It appears that Sano has the bat to be a truly elite player at 3B or DH, while Plouffe may not be as strong offensively as many (including myself) believe. In my opinion, the Twins would be wise to trade Plouffe for a top 20 catcher. Of course, they could also throw in some prospects to make this happen. Hunter is currently our 3rd best outfielder, but Buxton also deserves a starting chance. Arcia is also out of options next year and will only be able to DH if Plouffe is traded. Add in the fact that Kepler could debut sometime next year and it seems if Hunter comes on for another year, it should be as a 4th or 5th outfielder. I don't think we really need him for his production, but I can't speak about intangibles. Maybe they could sign him to be a player-coach who mainly just sits on the bench. There are worse uses for a bench spot. I really don't want to start another Mauer war, so all I will say about 1B is that it looks like we are in trouble. The good news here is that we don't have a true replacement for Mauer (sure Plouffe or Sano could play 1B, but neither of them is actually a first basemen. Likewise Kepler is primarily an outfielder. The only player the Twins have on the 40-man that is primarily a first baseman is Vargas and his offense has been worse than Mauer's). It is still possible Mauer turns it around, it is possible our young hitters develop into 3-4-5 types so we can move Mauer down in the lineup, and Mauer's contract should not prevent Terry Ryan from extending some of our young talent. We are not the only team with a bad contract, so there is no reason Mauer's play needs to sink this team. Overall, it seems like this offense has a way to go before it becomes that of serious a playoff team. I think we need to see top 10 production at at least 2-3 positions and top 20 production at another 3-4 before the Twins make it out of the first round of the playoffs. This season has been fun to watch, and I'm excited to see where this teams goes in the next few years. Thanks for reading!! *I acknowledge that the statistical analysis used here is far from perfect. For example, WAR is accumulated differently at different positions, so looking at the WAR of a player who has played multiple positions (or looking at the WAR of a player who could change positions), is not a fair measurement. In addition, there are players who qualify for multiple positions, meaning the 30 "starting-level" players at different positions may contain some overlap. As a result, a player rated int he 40s could still be top 30 at their position when only considering each player at one position. Nevertheless, I feel as though these statistics provide some insight into the nature of the Twins offense.

Do realize that most of his road splits come at other NL west parks, which I think are all pitcher-friendly. Target field is much more neutral

I have always been a huge fan of Zobrist, and I agree he is better than the Eduardos, I would just want him to play enough to be valuable is all. I didn't think about postseason experience, but that's a really good point and could come into play

Clippard I like, but I don't see a need for Zobrist, especially if Polanco starts at SS. We would still have the 2 Eduardos for infield backup along with Robinson and Hicks (assuming Rosario, Buxton, and Hunter in the OF) to backup the outfield. Arcia could get thrown into the mix, too (especially in sept).

I love the idea here but I ask (mainly out of curiosity) whether the MVP will go to the player who helps their team the most or just the best player. It has always seemed to me that it goes to the best player, but I could be wrong.

I would say Brian would be in the discussion, but I don't think he would get many votes. Maybe if the MVP was always given to the player with the highest war he would have a chance, but I just don't see him competing with Trout/Cabrera/Donaldson etc Not directly related but I hope Goldschmidt wins the NL MVP this year, he might be my favorite non-Twin

The Twins are in an interesting place. The 40-man roster is, yet again, full. The Twins definitely have a lot of players, but they don't have a lot of great (or arguably even a lot of good) players. It is obvious the Twins won't win a championship with their current team, but that's not to say there aren't bright spots. I'd like to take a quick look at the position players on the Twins' 40-man roster and examine what future, if any, they have with the team. Catchers: Eric Fryer: Although he is a replacement-level player, it seems important that Fryer stay on the 40-man roster. I think Pinto and Suzuki should be co-starters this season with Fryer in AAA in case of injury. A 40-man roster shouldn't operate with only 2 catchers, and I don't think there is a better candidate to be the Twins third catcher than Eric Fryer. It's worth mentioning that Fryer's offensive numbers were slightly higher than Drew Butera's last year. I think the Twins will hold onto Fryer until one of their catching prospects (Stewart Turner or Mitch Garver, for example) reach the high minors and are ready to be added to the 40-man roster. Josmil Pinto: I think Pinto will have some success this year with more frequent repetitions behind the plate and being paired with a pitcher not named Samuel Deduno. Pinto's bat shows a lot of promise and I think he could be a trade candidate down the road if one of our prospects (Turner or Garver) press to become the starting catcher. Kurt Suzuki: I'm still a little uneasy about the decision to extend Suzuki. He's a good ballplayer, but I don't expect him to stand out offensively or defensively this year. $6 million is also a lot to pay for a backup player, so I expect Suzuki to get plenty of playing time the next two years. I don't see him having a long-term place with the team, but I do think he will play out his contract with the Twins because the Twins will want to keep him if he puts up solid numbers and other teams will be reluctant to trade for him if he puts up poor numbers. Infielders: Chris Colabello: I think the Twins should let Colabello try his luck somewhere else. The Twins have plenty of candidates to take at bats at 1B and DH. I don't think Colabello will see much time with the Twins at all, and he could be out-righted if the Twins need roster space. Brian Dozier: Dozier's next season or two will determine if he becomes a franchise player or a tradeable asset. I haven't convinced myself of either one at this point. Dozier clearly has some skill, but he was quite disappointing offensively in the second half last year. It is definitely too premature to consider trading or extending Dozier. His own improvement at the plate, Danny Santana's ability to play shortstop, and Jorge Polanco's progress as a prospect will all be factors in the ultimate decision. Eduardo Escobar: The numbers Escobar put up last year were pleasantly surprising. He demonstrated that he has the talent to be a fringe starter in the major leagues. I approve of using Danny Santana as our primary shortstop this year, but Escobar is a good safety net and should get several at bats. In my opinion, it wouldn't hurt to give Dozier, Santana, and Plouffe a day off every week and allow Escobar to get three starts. This would allow the Twins to see how Escobar's bat holds up and increase his trade value. If Santana is successful, I think Escobar could become a good trade chip for the Twins. Joe Mauer: Mauer will play first base until his contract is over. His offensive numbers should recover a little bit next season. Trevor Plouffe: If Sano has success and demonstrates the ability to stick at third base, Plouffe becomes our most logical trade chip. If not, Plouffe could be an extension candidate. I think Plouffe's future will be determined almost entirely by Sano's return from Tommy John surgery. Jorge Polanco: If he continues hitting, Polanco could take Dozier's spot in the field in the future. If not, Polanco could be a valuable utility player. Miguel Sano: If he sticks at third base, he is the third baseman of the future. If not, he may make Kennys Vargas expendable. Danny Santana: I hope Santana sticks at short. If he does, I think he will hold down that position until Nick Gordon arrives, at which point one of them becomes a trade candidate. Kennys Vargas: Vargas should start the year with the Twins. If he has a sophomore slump, he can be sent down to Rochester. I also think Vargas should get two starts at first per week with Mauer DH-ing those days. That will allow Vargas to work on his defense and allow Joe to stay fresh. I think Vargas is the Twins DH for the foreseeable unless Sano can't play third base or his abilities drop off. Outfielders: Oswaldo Arcia: I think Arcia will be the Twins best hitter this year. It sounds like he is playing left field, which I think will slightly increase his defensive ratings. Arcia is very young and has a lot of potential. Despite his defensive shortcomings, I think the future Twins lineup needs to be built around him. If he has a breakout season this year I could see him as a potential extension candidate. If not after this season, the Twins could buy out his arbitration years after next season. Chris Herrmann: If Herrmann was still listed as a catcher I would see the point in having him on the team. As is, I don't see him playing a major role with this club unless a lot of outfielders get injured. Aaron Hicks: As much as it frustrates me, I am confident Aaron Hicks will be the opening day centerfielder. The Twins expressed their desire to have Torii Hunter help mentor their younger players, and I don't see them stating that then sending Hicks to AAA. I don't have much faith in Hicks anymore. Maybe he can become a 4th outfielder, but I don't see his bat giving him a starting role once Buxton debuts. Torii Hunter: Hunter will play right field, and give the Twins some offense this year. If the Twins resign him next year, they will have made a mistake. I have mixed feelings about signing Hunter, but at least he isn't blocking anybody right now. Next season he would be blocking Buxton and Rosario (and possibly others). Max Kepler: If Kepler has a breakout season he could be a decent trade candidate. I see the Twins long-term outfield as consisting of Rosario-Buxton-Arcia, but Kepler could be part of the equation, too. Eduardo Nunez: I think Nunez offers some value as a super-utility player and pinch runner. He will play for the Twins until a prospect with more promise is ready for promotion. I could potentially see Polanco taking his 25-man roster spot after this season. Chris Parmelee: I liked what Parmelee did against left handed pitching last year, but I think his time with the Twins is almost at an end. It seems Hunter may have taken Parmelee's 25-man roster spot this season. Since Parmelee actually put up decent defensive numbers last year, I wouldn't be surprised to see another team roll the dice with him. Eddie Rosario: Rosario could play center field for the Twins come June or July if Hicks is struggling. If his bat holds up, I think Rosario could be the answer in left field once Buxton arrives. I would start him at AAA to see if he is ready to take on major league pitching. Jordan Schafer: If nothing else, I'm glad we have a better backup plan for Hicks than last year. I think holding on to Schafer is a good idea for now, but I don't see him playing for the Twins in 2016 when Rosario, Buxton, and possibly Kepler are getting closer to the majors. In a couple of days I will go through the pitchers on the Twins 40-man roster and examine what future each of them has with the club. Thanks for reading and let me know what you think!

I understand the frustration with signing Torii Hunter right now, but I think it's unfair to be angry at him for leaving the Twins in the first place. The Twins offered him HALF of what he took to play for Los Angeles. I don't know many people who wouldn't go work for a rival company if they were guaranteed double the money they would make at their current job. It is also important to remember that only a small portion of the Twins fan base can be found blogging and posting in forums. It is true that most Twins fans with a grasp of advanced metrics and/or an understanding of how poor Hunter's defense really is (myself included) are a bit disappointed with this singing, but I know plenty of casual Twins fans who are ecstatic that Torii is back with the Twins. Those people aren't idiots, they just don't follow the game as closely, and they will be filling the seats at Target Field to see their hero play this year.

I agree there is no way to determine how Pelfrey will pitch with shorter rest, but Swarzak was definitely not the type of guy to put out the fire when runners were on base. He inherited 35 runners this year and allowed 16 of them to score (46%). As a percentage I'm not sure how that stacks up, but he was 51st in number of inherited runners and 6th in number of inherited runners scored, so he probably didn't rank very high in the percentage category. (data from sportingcharts.com)

I agree with this 100%. My thought process was that if Plouffe and/or Dozier have great seasons and Sano/Polanco/Rosario demonstrate they will be capable major league players going forward, we may be able to trade at least one of Dozier/Plouffe next off-season. Thanks for the feedback!

It may mean a bunch of losses in 2015, but the Twins need to use their next season to evaluate what they have. Next off-season, they can look at the trade and free agent market and search for a way to supplement their 25-man roster, but for now, they need to commit to the youth movement. I'll take a look at the players who deserve an extended look in each area of the Twins roster.Starting Rotation: Obviously, Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco are not going anywhere. I think Kyle Gibson is a breakout candidate and could prove to be something special. On top of those three, I would choose Trevor May and Alex Meyer to fill out my rotation. If the Twins are ever going to compete, they need to know if either of those pitchers will ever become a front-of-the-rotation arm. This doesn't leave room for a free-agent acquisition. I agree the Twins would probably win an additional handful of games if they signed Justin Masterson to a 1-year deal, but then either May or Meyer ends up in AAA. That's not how a youth movement is supposed to go. The Twins will still have Tommy Milone and Logan Darnell who could fill in if injury arises. If Meyer doesn't have what it takes to succeed, I'd rather know that after a poor 2015 than part way into 2016. Bullpen: The bullpen needs to have some turn-over this year. I would have no problem with the Twins trading/non-tendering Anthony Swarzak and Brian Duensing and I believe Jared Burton will be gone once the Twins buy out his contract. I would formulate a bullpen with Glen Perkins, Casey Fien, Logan Darnell, Ryan Pressly, Stephen Pryor, Mike Pelfrey, Michael Tonkin and Casey Theilbar. I would also make sure A.J. Achter and Lester Oliveros get an extended look at some point. This will not be the best bullpen in baseball, but Jake Reed, Nick Burdi, and Zack Jones will be here by season's end. Even if they don't all pan out, I expect at least two of them to show immediate success. The Twins would then need to know who stays and who goes amongst the others. 2015 is the year to figure that out. Infield: Danny Santana needs to be the shortstop. If that's actually going to be his position, the Twins need to see how he handles it full time. Brian Dozier and Trevor Plouffe could end up becoming two of Minnesota's best trade candidates, especially if MIguel Sano and Jorge Polanco both show major league success toward the end of 2015. Of course, Joe Mauer isn't going anywhere and Kennys Vargas will get the majority of DH at bats. This year is also Josmil Pinto's change to show whether he can be the catcher of the future; I think we'll know by season's end. There are not as many questions about the infield as other aspects of the team. Outfield: I don't understand the idea that the Twins should trade Oswaldo Arcia. I agree he isn't the best outfielder in the world, but I would argue he's the only outfielder that isn't a total question mark going into 2015. Center field and left field are sort of a mess, so why trade Arcia and make right field a mess, too? For center and left, I think the Twins can patch together enough success to survive 2015. Jordan Schafer should be retained for another season, as he plays pretty good defense and runs well. Other than that, I would give Aaron Hicks, Eddie Rosario, Danny Ortiz, and eventually Byron Buxton opportunities this year. I could even see Rosario being the Twins opening day center fielder this season. If Hicks, Rosario, and Ortiz fail and Buxton isn't ready, the Twins can ride with Chris Parmelee in left field until someone hits the waver wire without it being the end of the world. Overall, 2015 might be a struggle, like Terry Ryan suggested, but it could help the team in the long run to just play the group they already have. Once the Twins know what they have in their top prospects, they will be in a better position to pursue talent on the free agent and trade markets to supplement what they already have. Click here to view the article

I'm not sold on Darnell yet, but I still think it's worth looking at him to see if he can be a lefty specialist or long man out of the bullpen. His AAA ERA this year was well above his FIP, so it is very possible he doesn't have what it takes to succeed at the MLB level, but I would rather know one way or the other at the end of 2015.

I agree having Masterson on the Twins would mean a few more wins in 2015, but then what happens to Meyer? A rotation of Hughes, Masterson, Gibson, Nolasco, and May would have some great potential, but if those five pitch all of 2015, we would reach 2016 with no idea how Meyer will fare as an MLB starter.

It may mean a bunch of losses in 2015, but the Twins need to use their next season to evaluate what they have. Next off-season, they can look at the trade and free agent market and search for a way to supplement their 25-man roster, but for now, they need to commit to the youth movement. I'll take a look at the players who deserve an extended look in each area of the Twins roster. Starting Rotation: Obviously, Hughes and Nolasco are not going anywhere. I think Gibson is a breakout candidate and could prove to be something special. On top of those three, I would choose May and Meyer to fill out my rotation. If the Twins are ever going to compete, they need to know if either of those pitchers will ever become a front-of-the-rotation arm. This doesn't leave room for a free-agent acquisition. I agree the Twins would probably win an additional handful of games if they signed Justin Masterson to a 1-year deal, but then either May or Meyer ends up in AAA. That's not how a youth movement is supposed to go. The Twins will still have Milone and Darnell who could fill in if injury arises. If Meyer doesn't have what it takes to succeed, I'd rather know that after a poor 2015 then part way into 2016. Bullpen: The bullpen needs to have some turn-over this year. I would have no problem with the Twins trading/non-tendering Swarzak and Duensing and I believe Burton will be gone once the Twins buy out his contract. I would formulate a bullpen with Perkins, Fien, Darnell, Pressly, Pryor, Pelfrey, Tonkin and Theilbar. I would also make sure Achter and Oliveros get an extended look at some point. This will not be the best bullpen in baseball, but Jake Reed, Nick Burdi, and Zack Jones will be here by season's end. Even if they don't all pan out, I expect at least two of them to show immediate success. The Twins would then need to know who stays and who goes amongst the others. 2015 is the year to figure that out. Infield: Santana needs to be the shortstop. If that's actually going to be his position, the Twins need to see how he handles it full time. Dozier and Plouffe could end up becoming two of Minnesota's best trade candidates, especially if Sano and Polanco both show major league success toward the end of 2015. Of course, Mauer isn't going anywhere and Vargas will get the majority of DH at bats. This year is also Pinto's change to show whether he can be the catcher of the future; I think we'll know by season's end. There are not as many questions about the infield as other aspects of the team. Outfield: I don't understand the idea that the Twins should trade Arcia. I agree he isn't the best outfielder in the world, but I would argue he's the only outfielder that isn't a total question mark going into 2015. CF and LF are sort of a mess, so why trade Arcia and make RF a mess, too? For CF and LF, I think the Twins can patch together enough success to survive 2015. Schafer should be retained for another season, as he plays pretty good defense and runs well. Other than that, I would give Hicks, Rosario, Danny Ortiz, and eventually Buxton opportunities this year. I could even see Rosario being the Twins opening day CF this season. If Hicks, Rosario, and Ortiz fail and Buxton isn't ready, the Twins can ride with Parmelee in LF until someone hits the waver wire without it being the end of the world. Overall, 2015 might be a struggle, like Terry Ryan suggested, but it could help the team in the long run to just play the group they already have. Once the Twins know what they have in their top prospects, they will be in a better position to pursue talent on the free agent and trade markets to supplement what they already have.