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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    Sure, I don't think anyone disagrees with that - the Cubs have done wonderfully smart things that the Twins can certainly try and emulate. They've also used their payroll advantage successfully. I'm not sure why that's controversial but it certainly seems to be for some.
  2. gunnarthor
    So, your argument is: Ignore Lester; Zorbist, Lackey, Hammel and Jackson = Santana, Hughes, Nolasco; Ignore Heyward; Ignore the other 40m on this years payroll for the other FA and this makes them equal to the Twins in 2011 with inflation factored in? Really? (And it doesn't b/c inflation isn't that big). And we haven't even mentioned how their payroll advantages allow them to add on salary for guys like Chapman, Smith, Montero. The Cubs have done a lot of stuff right but they've been able to spend their way out of a number of mistakes. That's a huge advantage that they have. I have no idea why you are trying to minimize that other than to try and claim a level playing field that clearly doesn't exist. They have a 185m payroll. That's a huge asset which they have used very well. But it's not a realistic plan for the Twins under the Pohlads.
  3. gunnarthor
    As much as I hate WFC (see a few pages ago) it's a great stock and the dividends really make it worth it. I think people really underestimate dividend reinvestment and how much that helps build your portfolio. I also think short-term trading - unless you're a pro - is less successful in the long run. Remember that you're taxed at a higher tax rate for stocks you've held less than a year.
  4. gunnarthor
    That narrative is incorrect. Since Epstein and Hoyer took over, they've had 5 guys make the majors that they've drafted and only one, Bryant, is a "crushed pick". Obviously, too early to say the others won't be good but they are not the reason the Cubs are winning 100+ games this year. They've built around free agents and great trades.
  5. gunnarthor
    Right, but when they make a 50m signing, they go make another. Those 8 FA that have managed 1 WAR are making nearly 93m this year. That doesn't count the nearly 20m the Cubs are paying for FA that have been worth less than that or were released but who they are still paying. And even if you take out Lester and Heyward, their payroll is still over 125m which is roughly 20m more than the Twins. I'm honestly not sure how anyone can look at the Cubs and appreciate how much the ability to buy has helped this team.
  6. gunnarthor
    I was big on Cabbage but he really does need to start producing. Blankenhorn has done far better.
  7. gunnarthor
    Probably makes more sense to look at Cleveland's run the last few years - you know, where Falvey worked. The Cubs turn around involved some very nice trades but it also involved spending lots of money on high impact free agents. They have 16 guys on their roster who have managed 1.0 WAR or more - 8 of them were free agents - including 3 of their 5 starters (Lackey, Lester and Hammel). They've also been extremely healthy this year - 5 starters have made 29 or more starts.
  8. gunnarthor
    Balazovic is the obvious guy in this group. I really liked last years draft - lots of really young HS players. It'll be fun to see them develop.
  9. gunnarthor
    It's to get fans to recognize some lesser prospects. If we started at #1, no one would pay attention to #39.
  10. gunnarthor
    I was really hoping Harrison would have a break out season this year. Dang.
  11. gunnarthor
    I think it depends on what you're trying to do. Are you trying to time the market and sell Amazon while it's high? Or are you buying stocks for the long run - 10+ years? If it's the second, the only thing you should really worry about it is a bottoming out of your company. (Citibank in 2008, for instance).
  12. gunnarthor
    Not sure - probably depends on how the young hitters evolve. Sano should certainly win a few HR titles in his time.
  13. gunnarthor
    Funny, we don't see you and DaveW in the same places anymore ...
  14. gunnarthor
    https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/780462392358608896
  15. gunnarthor
    There are certainly people and departments that should stay. Keith Law mentioned that the next GM needed to provide an analytics to the baseball operations but he did praise the minor league development ops. I suspect the new PBO and GM will make a few changes this year and a few more next year. But I think the biggest changes will be bringing new people in instead of firing people.
  16. gunnarthor
    Ivan Nova seemed to figure a few things out in Pittsburgh - probably that the NL is easier - and is shaping up to get a few more dollars in FA than I would expect. Really rough FA class.
  17. gunnarthor
    A couple (I think semi-realistic) ways the Twins could improve defense (and maybe the pitching staff). 1) Sign Wilson Ramos. He's apparently good at pitch framing which could really help a guy like Gibson, who nibbles a lot. Plus, having Ramos back would make a vocal Twins fan happy. 2) Try and trade for Jurickson Profar (or another plus SS defender). He's had an up and down season offensively and he's not playing short for the Rangers but he's still only 23 and was a great SS prospect and the minor league reports said he was good in the PCL defensively. He has three more years of team control so he'd cost a bit to get. But even if the Twins didn't want to trade anyone on the ML roster, they could put a nice package together around Gordon, for instance. 3) If you get a new short stop you can trade Dozier and slide Polanco to second. Big offensive drop but hopefully you'd get a nice return for Dozier to immediately help the pitching staff. 4) Fix bullpen through FA? Horrible SP market but the relief pitcher market might be a bit better. 5) Fire Allen. Even if you're stuck with Molitor we can try a new pitching coach. An up the middle defense of Ramos, Polanco, Profar (or plus SS) and Buxton would be pretty good. We'd still have a bit of problems in the corners, depending on what stat you prefer, but not major problems. Obviously, the Twins won't do all five of those things but they might do one or two.
  18. gunnarthor
    Oh, sure. Maybe. Perhaps I was misreading the basis of some posts.
  19. gunnarthor
    Arguably, there is a difference between "best player" and "most valuable". Admittedly, not everyone sees it that way but historically, MVP has not been for the best player. That's why I think Betts will get it this year over Trout. And we should also remember that WAR is not the be-all, end-all. Posnanski reported a few years ago that the Oakland A's internal WAR valuation had Miguel Cabrera ahead of Trout when fWAR and b-r WAR had Trout far ahead.
  20. gunnarthor
    I think Betts wins. Dozier might get a top 10 vote or two but there are a lot of deserving players this year and are playing on good teams.
  21. gunnarthor
    I love dividends. We automatically reinvest the dividend into the stock so when it's down, we're automatically buying more anyway. It can really grow a stock rapidly.
  22. gunnarthor
    I like the article. I'm not sure if he really is tipping pitches or that a pinky would be enough but I do remember Hunter's BP thing so there is some smoke ...
  23. gunnarthor
    Adding to this, the Twins used to have a roving pitching instructor - Rich Knapp, IIRC - who went to all levels of the minors to help pitchers with their control. I remember he got a lot of credit within the organization. Eventually he was hired away by the Tigers and fired after a few disappointing years for their hitters. It seemed strange. As to defense, it might not be a strength next year but it might not be the hot mess either. Most defensive stats mark the worst players as back-ups and guys not here anymore. Mauer, Dozier, Polanco and Rosario all sort of grade out as average. Buxton grades out above that. Sano at third is, depending on the stat, avg or slightly below and Kepler in RF is the same way. One way to help might be to get a better defensive framing catcher so Twins pitchers (Gibson) might get a few more calls in the bottom of the zone? If Buxton hits enough, he'll cover enough ground in center. They could also target a strong defensive short stop and move Polanco to third and Sano to DH (although that hurts the offense and means Vargas is gone and Park is a bench player full time).
  24. gunnarthor
    Eventually, he'll be fine. He just needs reps. We're probably over analyzing everything right now. He's had about 400 PA in the majors and less than 550 PA in AA and AAA combined over the last three (injury plagued) seasons. Occasionally, you see glimpses of what he can become. I know WAR has a ton of warts but both b-r and fangraphs have him on a 2+ WAR pace for a full season. He's been about as valuable this year, in few PA, as Denard Span has been for the Giants. He has to improve his plate discipline but he's already an asset and he'll get better.
  25. gunnarthor
    Yeah, that only a small fraction - which apparently still numbers in the thousands - were financially affected, those actions were illegal. And they could have affected peoples credit ratings - esp if they weren't paying their unknown credit cards or someone else got a hold of a card (identity theft) they didn't even know they had. I think this sort of thing - while small potatoes - will continue unless they are prosecuted. Merging this with the election thread, Clinton's website says that she favors prosecution of bankers who break the law. I really wish someone would ask her if she thinks these 5300 employees should be prosecuted.
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