gunnarthor

Any word on who else gets comp picks in the upcoming draft?

Just looking at some of the fan comments to Heyman's tweet, it looks like fans of the Yankees, Dodgers, Angels and Phillies are looking at adding Dozier. Not sure that's a reliable way to guess the interested teams though.

Per Heyman, four or five teams have interest in Dozier, who is also going to be at the winter meetings for a marketing requirement. But that means he'll almost certainly be able to meet with future potential bosses which will probably be a good thing. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/four-to-five-teams-interested-in-brian-dozier.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MlbTradeRumors+%28MLB+Trade+Rumors%29

What, you don't own a bunch of oil and big bank stocks? I hate Trump but our portfolio has looked pretty good since election day.

I imagine Dozier will be traded at the Winter meeting. It makes too much sense not to trade him.

Twins should start by asking for Alvarez, of course, but I don't think the Dodgers can trade Alvarez. He's (arguably) their best prospect but they also made a huge financial commitment to him - nearly 16m + a huge tax penalty. I think he and Urias are their only untouchables.

I really liked last years draft for a variety of reasons but one of those was because they drafted a ton of really young players. A lot of 17 year olds and guys with limited exposure but high ceilings. Obviously, Balazovic falls into that group. We probably won't be able to judge the 2015 draft class for a while yet but it'll be fun to watch a lot of these guys.

Oh good. I was hoping this thread would devolve into BS "Hunter is racist" and "started a fight" stuff and it's just PR and was not disappointed.

Unreal.

I think if you are equating hiring three former Twins (who last played for the org in 2015, 2011 and 2001) to be equal to hiring Falvey and Levine then we have real problems. Those shouldn't be 1:1 comparisons.

But when are you looking at? Most of the minor league coaches and staff have come in after 2012 and have been producing very good results both in minor league wins but also player development. Most of the current ML staff has came in around 2014. I think Molitor should go but ... Part of this burn it all down mentality doesn't stand up because people don't know what they want to burn down. Klaw, of all people, has nothing but good things to say about both the Twins scouting and development departments, for example. Brad Stiel has done a pretty good job since taking over in 2012. I don't think he should go. I'm on the fence on Johnson but know enough to know I don't know enough.

I dunno. The team hasn't been absolute garbage since 1991 so you sort of lose a lot of your validity. Falvey and Levine are in charge. They seem to think that Hunter et al can help. This isn't because they were former Twins. It's because they've seen it work in Cleveland and in Texas. That's what they are attempting to do here.

I assume you must be new here.

Well, I don't think the Twins would trade three guys and 11 years of control for one pitcher. I don't really see a Reyes to Twins plan that would work. But the Cards could still be a factor. Besides Weaver, they have a number of young pitchers in the majors as well.

That's true as well. And, going in our favor, does Dozier's LH hitting ability push LA over the top? Do they pay a premium on that? I'm really curious on what Dozier's trade value will be. During the season I was a bit of a pessimist and thought we wouldn't get much back. Maybe one top 100 + a Trevor May like arm. But Dozier just kept hitting and hitting and I think I was under estimating his value. I think it's a really good sign that national writers have the Dodgers giving up so much in return. They might be wrong but it means the price is probably a lot better than I originally thought.

Nah. Peralta's done at short. He might be done period. I'd honestly trust Escobar at short more than Peralta at this point. I do like the idea of upgrading short but I'm not sure what the best option is. I'd like to steal someone from TX (Profar?) but not sure what the need/cost is.

I think the big disconnect seems to be what is Dozier worth going forward? WAR is clunky as hell and teams have better internal stats but for back of the envelope math, it might work. Dozier has two years left and I think any team trading for him would assume that he'll be worth at a minimum 6 WAR over the next two years. (If a team thinks he'll fall off and be a 2 WAR player, they wouldn't trade for him). But Dozier's been a pretty good player four years in a row now (3.7, 5.2, 2.5, 6.5). So the team might think he's worth 8 or more WAR the next two years (or the Twins might and hold out accordingly). It's hard to find trades that are comparable but there have been some strange trades the last few years. The Astros traded quite a bit for 1.5 years of Gomez and 3.5 years of Fiers. I don't know what the Astros expected but 8 WAR seems overly optimistic. They also traded a crap ton for Ken Giles, a dominant closer with 4 years of control left and avg 2 WAR his first two years. I'm not sure the WAR math works here since closer is very specialized but they probably didn't expect more than 8 WAR out of their end of the deal (although there could be non-WAR value in creating a strong back end bullpen). The Royals traded Sean Manaea for half a season of Zorbrist. BA has a list of all trades made each year. Here's the 2015 list. But it does seem that teams trading away players have gotten some surprisingly strong returns the last few years for mere rentals. (David Price and Zorbrist). If the Twins are dealing with the Dodgers, they should certainly begin by asking for their top guys like Alvarez or Bellinger. I'm not sure if they'll get them but there have been stranger trade returns. I think that a respected national writer thinks Alveraz would have to go back is a good sign.

Why? Dozier's contract is better and the trading team gets him longer. Seems like the Twins should aim higher than the Hill/Reddick return.

Didn't the A's trade Reddick and Hill together? They got 6 starts from Hill and 47 games from Reddick and gave up three pieces. Grant Holmes (entered the season as BA #72 prospect although BP and mlbpipeline had him higher), Frankie Montes (entered the season as BA #95 prospect) but injured and Jharel Cotton (an undersized starter who made 5 solid starts for the A's last year). I think Dozier being both better and cheaper than the Reddick/Hill combo as well as having much more team control should be able to top that return.

They had Bruno on the bench last year. That didn't seem to help. These moves seem pretty smart and hopefully they'll help but I certainly can't see how they'll hurt. Last year's team sucked and they were also boring and unwatchable. They seemed to lack energy and drive. I think that blame should go on Molitor but if Hunter et al can help the team, great.

Yeah, he kind of reminds me of Kepler 2015. Same build, both are lefties. Not as good a hitter but more power and fewer walks but a real strong AA season. He's only 20. He entered last season as BA #54 prospect and will probably move up into the top 30. But he does have warts. I don't think he's an elite prospect like Buxton/Berrios/Sano were but he's probably in that next grouping with Kepler.

I think this is why we're seeing reports that Falvey/Levine are asking for a very high return on Dozier. They aren't going to give him away and the hope is that the players he gets back will be a better fit for the Sano/Buxton/Berrios nucleus. But if the best return is a couple non-top 100 prospects, you keep Dozier because you don't have to trade him now. He's cheap, he's a pretty good player and you can always reexamine trading him during the season.

Both probably have notes from TX and CLE on the Twins minor league systems. I think Levine has strong scouting background as well. And, as Klaw has stated, the Twins scouting system is well respected so I don't think they're going in blind.

Yeah, I wouldn't want him straight up for Dozier.

I think Puig would be a really nice fit for us, actually. He isn't perfect and I think he'd have a bit of culture shock going from LA to MPLS but, in a down year, he still had an 101 OPS+ and doesn't strike out too much. He needs to start taking a few more walks again but .... We'd have him for his age 26 and 27 seasons and (I think) he'd be a nice upgrade over Rosario and Rosario could be an intriguing fourth OFer option.