gunnarthor

Ignoring ethics, I like oil right now. We paid off my law school loans because of an oil stock. We bought into some natural gas stocks a few years ago and made a second buy of the same stock as prices plummeted. Now we are starting to see them jump a lot. Keeping in mind that I'm just a dumb guy on the internet, I keep expecting oil to have another major dip before a real big spike. I very rarely try to time the market but I'm watching a stock named HP (Helmerich & Payne) pretty closely. We bought in 06 and sold it in 2014. If it falls into the 50s, I'll probably buy. It's an oil rig company with a great dividend and good leadership.

They aren't recession proof but they bounced back pretty fast from the housing fiasco. The nice thing about Disney is that if the dollar gets weak, Disney World brings in a ton of international dollars as foreigners leap at the discount and things like their cartoons are always pretty popular. Parents buy those DVDs at Christmas time, recession or no recession. I'm still a little mad that I didn't buy into Disney a decade earlier when we really should have.

I think the problem with Palka / Kiriloff comparisons is that Palka's weak spots - plate discipline - is a real issue that Kiriloff hasn't shown. Everyone knew Palka (and ABW) could hit the ball a mile. Frankly, the minors are full of hitters with plus or even plus plus power that never made it because they couldn't hit ML caliber pitching. I like Palka a lot and I think it was one of Ryan's sneaky trades. I'm actually optimistic on him and think he'll be a solid ML for a few seasons. But Kiriloff has the much higher ceiling, even if he's farther away. I think he's the better prospect.

We own a bit of Disney. It's a good safe stock - I think my grandkids will be watching Disney cartoons 30 years from now. It has a nice dividend as well. We bought at 108 and 93, IIRC. I probably wouldn't jump in at 109 today if I overly cared about timing market (which I usually don't).

I hope Morneau is the MVP of the tourney and gets a nice big league contract. Also, really exciting that Rodriquez made the PR team. Perhaps there's something there after all.

Remember a few years ago when Tyler Kolek was extremely hyped HS RH pitching prospect? A lot of rumors that he'd go #1 overall but Houston took Aiken. Miami took Kolek, who is no longer on top 100 lists, and the White Sox took Rodon who is going to be a pain in the ass for Twins fans for a decade. Take the college arm.

Nice. Still hoping for Faedo to have a big season but Greene is a pretty exciting prospect. Really hope we can get someone to fall at 35 and 37.

So Trump is going to dismantle banking regulations. Buy big banks guys - at least until the next economic crisis the deregulation causes.

Nice write up again, Seth. I hope he does well. He's young so it'll take some time but most of the scouting reports on him have been pretty fun to read.

I think the new FO has made some pretty important changes but they are not on the playing field. Pickler in the dugout might be able to help Molitor. Molitor is a smart baseball mind but not a good player's manager. Maybe Pickler makes him keep starting May over Duffey or keeping D. Santana on the bench, though. They put Sean Johnson in charge of the draft. They gave Goins added resources. They've indicated that they'll platoon more. On the field there really wasn't that much they could do. Outside of catcher, the offense is more or less set and they got (arguably) the best defensive catcher for this staff that they could. They need Kepler and Buxton and Rosario to play. Rosario might be a fourth outfielder but it's too early to give up on him. The rotation is a mess but there isn't much in FA to fix it. Apparently they did try to trade Dozier but couldn't find a trade they liked. They should add some bullpen pieces before ST though. The rotation is what it is. They couldn't upgrade it much so we're stuck with it. Hopefully Berrios takes a step forward and Gibson pitches more like 2014-2015 Gibson. Longterm, I don't doubt that they know it's an issue but I'm not sure what else they could do about it.

Yeah, my guess is they are in the 75 win range this season. How the youngsters play will have a lot of impact on how the 2018 season projects. I do want to see some improvement in the bullpen though. Right now, Pressly is basically the only arm in there I actually like.

Oh yeah, it helps if you're willing to live in a small shack on the outskirts of town without heat and rabbit ear antennas ...

Nice write up. Frankly, I didn't know much about him. He dad played in the NFL? Bloodlines! Hope he makes it. I like the nugget that some saw him as a potential first rounder.

We got killed in 08 in the housing crisis. I still occasionally stay up at night and try to figure exactly how much money we lost as opposed to just renting during that time. It's depressing. Since then, we've been a bit paranoid about it and we bought our last house with cash we had saved up and no mortgage.

Nice article. I don't know how individual players digest information but I think it's a really good thing for them to have it. Obviously, Bautista is a very smart hitter but he has tons of natural ability as well so it's certainly not a cure all but if the information can be used to make the transition to the major easier (Buxton/Kepler), let's hope Pickler helps a lot. The Molitor nugget is interesting. I'm more than done with him as a manager but he certainly is a very smart baseball mind. Not sure why he isn't a better (in my view) manager.

Beats me. I've heard many people say this is another 100 loss team. I have not asked them their theories on baseruns.

Fancy man.

That's true, I did use baseruns. And when I used it I said if you used baseruns in 2015, then in fairness the 2016 team wasn't as bad.

Gonsalves isn't our #1 and, at least according to Klaw, Gonsalves and De Leon's rankings aren't that far apart.

FLR's your man. Right after Katrina, I kicked around buying it but I didn't. Wish I had. Nice dividend.

True, only Berrios has high upside but wasting Dozier isn't the way to fix it either. Brock Stewart slips right into the back of our rotation, for instance. (And most agree he wasn't offered with De Leon). So it doesn't look like - at this time - the Dozier trade wasn't going to move the needle much on the rotation. So you don't do it. The Twins do need better pitchers at the ML level. They have a handful of ranked prospects in AA/AAA right now. They have three picks in the top 37 (I think) in a college deep draft, and they can trade guys like Dozier or Santana. The Santana rumor mill is pretty empty and the best deal we've seen for Dozier hasn't been enough for most people. So that's what's left.

How you feel about De Leon is going to greatly alter your view. I was never very high on him b/c of his shoulder soreness. Klaw's ranking him in the 70s seems to reflect that as did fangraphs (and others) noting he was not their top pitching prospect. However, if you think De Leon is a difference maker, you look at this differently.

But it's not. We've already removed 46 starts from that group (Nolasco, Dean, Albers, Meyer, Milone) and hopefully another 26 with Duffey into the pen. If nothing else happens, at a minimum we'll get at least 25-40% new starts. I agree that Santana won't be as good but last year he and Gibson combined for 55 starts and 4.4 WAR. I think, even with regression, they can be a bit better. Berrios is the big one, of course. If he's pitching like last year, we're ****ed. But if turns into even a 2 WAR player, that's a huge swing. The point is, we don't have to take a deal we don't like to improve the rotation.

The Twins can do several things to improve the pitching without wasting their best trade chip. Even doing nothing, they can't expect positive regression. They can improve pitching by getting a pitch framing catcher (if you think that's a thing). They can improve pitching by improving the defense - esp the OF defense. I think they've done some of these. Obviously, if pitch framing is a thing, Castro is supposed to be good at it. An OF of Rosario/Buxton/Kepler should be an upgrade over last year, provided they hit and stay in the lineup. I'm not sold on the IF defense and, outside of Buxton, they don't have anyone who should be much more than average at best. But it's still an upgrade. If you don't want to role with Santana, Gibson, Santiago, May, Berrios (my guess for opening day), you can sign a FA starter like Hammel, who would probably be as effective as the "and junk" part of any De Leon trade. What "similar deals?" If you're talking about Dozier trades, again, I think you try and look at trades either of similar players or similar expected value. Ben Zorbrist was traded by Oakland to KC for half a season. KC received a pitcher in Manaea, who is pretty close to De Leon now, and a relief pitcher/occasional starter. The Royals were probably expecting maybe 1.5-2 WAR from Zobrist in that half season (optimistically) + bonus for making them a playoff team/WS contender. Dozier's expected value to the Dodgers - 8 WAR - is four times that of Zobrist's expected value to the Royals. So his return should be more than a top 50 prospect and a AAAA player. And so on

What's the first part? Do we ever trade Dozier? Not unless we get a deal we value.