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USAFChief

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Everything posted by USAFChief

  1. USAFChief
    if I owned that company, I'd focus some attention on the managers who are telling me their division Is "top 5 in the industry" when they keep posting red numbers year after year.
  2. USAFChief
    I don't think you can argue either Sano or Buxton will, or should be up on opening day 2015 unless you are (were) willing to say they should have been up opening day 2014. Both are a year older, but otherwise in essentially the exact same position they were a year ago, development wise. Buxton got in a few games, Sano none. Both will have the opportunity to get in a few games before spring training, hopefully. They're both where they were a year ago. They weren't making the opening day roster last spring...I don't see how that's changed much, if at all.
  3. USAFChief
    I don't know how to say this without sounding confrontational, so I'll just say it... I think if you substituted "2013" for every "2014'" and "2015" for every "2014," your post could have been written last October, and probably was, just not by you. "Wait until 2014, when Meyer/Mays/Buxton/Sano/Rosario/pickyournamehere are up and producing...then go get what you need." I'd rather the team goes and gets some of what they need, and hope the minor leagues can supply even more, rather than the other way around. To me that's the less risky strategy. YMMV of course.
  4. USAFChief
    My guess is Scherzer costs at least 1.5 times that.
  5. USAFChief
    Vargas can play 3rd??!? Sweet.
  6. USAFChief
    Quite possibly true. But it would be worth asking, IMO.
  7. USAFChief
    Mauer, .860 career OPS (133 OPS+) Kemp, .845 career OPS (128 (OPS+) 1.5 yrs younger than Mauer, without the injury history. Kemp is overpaid, but not by an "insane" amount, at least not by MLB standards. There's a very reasonable chance he ages well and is an above average big league left fielder through the end of that contract. I wouldn't give up much for him, but at the cost of only money, he fills a need for half a decade. I think we all agree the Twins can spend more. What's the goal here...win actual MLB games, or win the mythical "most wins per dollar spent" baseball prospectus championship? I will agree with you on one thing though...the Twins won't even consider a move like that. I guess my argument is, I'd like to see the Twins change the universe they operate in.
  8. USAFChief
    I got a lot of flack on other forums a few years ago for thinking the Twins should have moved Mauer out from behind the plate years ago. Probably before he even made the big leagues. Now they are paying the price for a physical decline that might not be correctable, as well as losing a lot of time on the field in the interim. I still think it was a mistake having him catch, WAR be damned.
  9. USAFChief
    Perhaps even in LaLaLand there are salary concerns...if they want to pursue Scherzer, having most of Kemps salary off the books might be attractive. I like the idea of Kemp, but only if its costs little except money.
  10. USAFChief
    Rumor has it Ashburyjohn and Chief will be in attendance this Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, each with a son in tow. Look for the two old guys...that'll be the two sons.
  11. USAFChief
    yes.
  12. USAFChief
    Honest questions: earlier in this thread you said BP's model showed 40 runs. Is that the "scaled back" number? If that's a scaled back estimate, why should I believe it's now correct, when the same claims would have been made last year, only with a larger number of runs saved? They had it wrong before, but now they have it right? As for what 2 strikes per game is worth, I don't know. Assuming 2 strikes per game is accurate, which is not in evidence by the way, I would say not a lot. Not 40 runs, for sure, IMO. That doesn't pass the smell test, for me at least. I've been wrong before, I could be wrong here. But something like this can't be proven, one way or the other, so I will just have to go with my sense of what's probable.
  13. USAFChief
    I am a sceptic about pitch framing, so take that into account. Disclaimer posted. An extra 2 strikes a game...I guess that's possible. Although my hunch is further research down the line will call that into question, much like many of the writers who treated defensive metrics as gospel a few years ago are backing off that stance now. But 40 runs per year? I don't think that's possible.
  14. USAFChief
    I agree there's a place for both. Baseball is hard to predict. I will say it won't bother me if they shift the balance a bit more towards the empirical side though. Here's hoping the next manager is really good at both.
  15. USAFChief
    It's not over yet. But you have a solid lead.
  16. USAFChief
    I see the point as: a top minor league system is nice, but one reason it's a bit misleading to put too much stock in it is some of the comparisons should be to young players already contributing at the major league level, rather than just to other minor leaguers. The goal is to get these guys to the big leagues, have them produce, and win games. Having a 24 yr old put up nice numbers in Rochester doesn't win any MLB games...he should be compared to a similar 24 yr old producing in the majors.
  17. USAFChief
    I strongly prefer someone from outside the org. But if it does come down to these two, I agree with Nick. Look forward, not back, and go with DM.
  18. USAFChief
    Yes.
  19. USAFChief
    I agree.
  20. USAFChief
    I think you have that backwards. Did emptying a good portion of their minor league system for Miguel Cabrera kill the Tigers?
  21. USAFChief
    I'd at least look into it.
  22. USAFChief
    Kemp is owed $21m for each of the next five years, which will be his age 30 thru 34 seasons. He put up a .850 OPS (140 OPS+) this year, right in line with his career average. He's probably not the superstar he once looked like, but he's a good bet to post similar numbers, and a huge bet to be way better than anything the Twins are likely to put in left field for the next few years. If the Dodgers want prospects in return, no. If its nothing but money, well the Twins have that, and should be going over budget the next few years anyway if they're going to meet their famous 52 percent promise, considering they've been below it for a couple years now. I'd take Kemp off their hands, put him in LF, and not look back. They still could buy any pitching they want, if they were so inclined.
  23. USAFChief
    Concur. I strongly think Mauer would be a disaster waiting to happen.
  24. USAFChief
    I doubt very many KC fans consider that trade a mistake. They havent played past the regular season in 30years. They got to follow a team in contention, playing games that mattered, all season. Tbey might get more. The trade worked, no matter what Myers does in the future.
  25. USAFChief
    If LA trades Kemp it will be to dump salary, so a team willing to take on Kemp's entire contract could probably get him for almost nothing. No team is going to both take on the salary AND give up real prospects. Same for Crawford. Do it.
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