twinssouth

Recently I wrote that the Twins have an absolute slew of problems. They are doing quite a few things poorly, and everything is going negatively all at just about the same time. If we're going to try and attribute things to one place, we're probably running a fool's errand. What is true however, is that Terry Ryan's ineptitude has become more of a focus than ever.
Having taken over for his appointed heir, Bill Smith, Ryan has guided the Twins through some substantial rebuilding. The club had four straight 90 loss seasons, and in turn, drafted some pretty promising prospects. Seemingly close to the top of the mountain once again in 2015, the club just missed the playoffs in Paul Molitor's first year. Now roughly a month into the 2016 season, the head scratching when looking at Terry Ryan's plan has reached an all time high.
 
Let's be fair here, I have never been one to criticize Ryan. For the better part of his tenure with the Twins, I feel as though he's done a passable job. While you'd no doubt hope for something that pushes the needle a bit further, he's been a guy who is less than deserving of the distaste directed at him. He pulled off a heck of a deal to land Tommy Milone and I still believe that both the Yankees and Twins will benefit from the Aaron Hicks and John Ryan Murphy swap. He moved on from Francisco Liriano when he needed to, and Eduardo Escobar has been more than capable in return.
 
Outside of a few bright spots over the past few seasons however, Ryan has simply seen the game pass him by.
 
We can talk at length about whether or not Paul Molitor was a great hire for the manager role of the Twins, but it's far to early to tell how that narrative is going to play out. What we do know, is that Ryan was indebted to former manager Ron Gardenhire to a fault, and while the losing may not have been a result of his direct influence, he did little to change course either.
 
Coming into the 2016 season, Minnesota made little waves on the open market, and it was expected to be a sign of internal options rising to the top. Now well out of the division race and floundering below the .500 mark, Alex Meyer becomes just the first promotion that we can expect to stay with the big league club (at least as long as he proves capable).
 
Ryan no doubt had his hand in sending outfielder, and top prospect Max Kepler to the majors. In getting there, he started just two of 17 games, and saw only 14 plate appearances. Whether or not his development was stunted, Kepler saw the early part of his 2016 go to waste. Throw Jorge Polanco in the mix with Kepler, and you have another guy that has now been promoted to the big league level six different times, despite never staying for longer than a four game span. Not expected to have much of a significant impact being more rotational guys to start, the Twins learned next to nothing about either of them while they were up.
 
A problematic pattern with promotions has followed Ryan for the better part of the past couple seasons. Both Michael Tonkin and Kennys Vargas were mishandled a season ago. One is currently seeing success at for the Twins, while the other is still trying to find the floor after having the rug pulled out from under him.
 
Then you have what may be considered the breaking point for me. In signing veteran retread David Murphy, the Twins were essentially saying they needed a reason to shake up the roster. Rather than doing so and using a guy like Oswaldo Arcia (who has made his lack of playing time early on look silly), it was Murphy who was supposed to come in and force Minnesota into making a necessary move such as demoting top prospect Byron Buxton.
 
Murphy went to Triple-A Rochester, and hit .194 like the aged veteran he is. Upon time for his upcoming opt out clause, the Twins first cleared room on their 40 man roster. Catcher John Hicks, who was just claimed from the Mariners this offseason, was jettisoned. Now not only had the Twins lost their third catcher (and a guy with decent future reliability), Murphy made things worse for Minnesota by declining any promotion and chose to retire.
 
Rather than actually knowing where all parties stood, Ryan and the Twins end up looking silly with egg on their face as the roster handling appears to be above their level of competency. As the dust settled, Minnesota finds themselves now needing to add an otherwise unnecessary player to the 40 man just to fill out their big league bench.
 
At some point, you have to be ok with asking for more from your leaders. Ryan at his best has been passable if not mediocre. If the Twins are going to take the next step, it's becoming relatively clear that Ryan is probably not the guy capable of pushing the envelope to get them there. Rather than continuing to look internally, and hiring back buddies such as Gardenhire, the Twins best friend could be the one they don't yet know. Ingenuity and innovation generally breeds advancement, but right now that's a foreign concept at Target Field.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Steamer projections are available for 2016. Steamer uses the last three seasons of data to project the 2016 season. It is easy to write projections off as "guesses" but they are based on a significant amount of historical data. If interested you can read more about the various projection systems and rankings for 2014 here.
 
Projected Twin starters with games started, ERA and their rank (compared to the 169 pitchers with 20 projected starts). I use ERA because it is projected performance that is based on previous year's peripherals.
 
Phil Hughes 32, 4.20 #121
Ervin Santana 31, 4.34 #140
Kyle Gibson 29, 4.15 #117
Ricky Nolasco 19, 4.34 (#140)
Tommy Milone 16, 4.10 (#112)
Tyler Duffey 13, 4.19 (#121)
Jose Berrios 11, 3.99 (#92)
 
Comparing the 169 starters projected for at least 20 starts the median ERA is 3.90 in Ian Kennedy. The ERA's in the AL are generally higher. Last year the NL had a better league ERA by 0.10 so the median AL starter might be around 3.95 and the median NL starter around 3.85.
 
The Twins do not fare well. The Twins have one pitcher with a projected performance that would fit a number 3 starter around the league median in Berrios. Gibson, Milone and Hughes look to be number 4 starters with Hughes on the fringe. Nolasco and Santana fit in with the number 5 starters. Trevor May's projected ERA of 3.49 is based on relief work. His outstanding 3.25 FIP last year leads to his solid ERA projection.
 
What about the rest of the AL central?
 
The Indians have some of the best starters in baseball. Kluber(3.02) and Carrasco(3.04) are clear number 1s. Salazar is a fringe number 1 ranking 29 with a 3.44 projection. Tomlin(3.82) is a solid number 3 and Bauer is a fringe #4 matching Hughes at 4.20.
 
The Royals have two pitchers projected better than the median in Ventura (3.51) and Zimmer(3.84). Two others projected to be around the AL median in Duffy(3.93) and Medlin(4.00). The projection for Volquez is 4.27 which is in the midst of number 5 starters.
 
Verlander(3.77) and Sanchez(3.84) top the projected median, but the Tigers run thin after those two. Norris(4.28), Boyd(4.28) and Farmer(4.75) all project to be number 5 starters or worse. I would expect the Tigers will add to their pitching staff before the start of 2016.
 
The White Sox have the elite Chris Sale(2.82). Thankfully the Twins owned him last year. Quintana is projected well above the median at 3.70. Rodon might be a fringe #3 at 4.05. The other two Johnson(4.72) and Danks (4.75) ranked 165 and 167 of the 169 pitchers. The White Sox might add pitching also.
 
The Twins have a problem. They have invested too much money in the bottom of their rotation. This type of performance was projected at the time of their signing. They can hope that Santana, Hughes and Nolasco outperform their projections. One might. It is very unlikely that all three will. The Tigers and White Sox have not invested the same kind of money into the bottom of their pitching staffs. The White Sox have one more year of money invested in Danks. The Twins have 2-4 more years invested into Nolasco, Santana and Hughes. Their contracts would make them very difficult to move.
 
If May is included as a starter, the top five projected pitcher ERAs on the Twins next year are May, Berrios, Milone, Gibson and Duffy. Any chance the Twins will go with that rotation?

It was another beautiful weekend for baseball in sunny Southwest Florida. The baseball gods were smiling down as there was a rematch of last weekends pitching prospect phenoms of Stephen Gonsalves of the Twins vs 17 year old wunderkid Anderson Espinoza. Before the matchup, I got a little video of Gonsalves warming up in the bullpen where he appeared a little wild. After his two innings of pitching, where he showed off his plus changeup that upticked his 90-92 mph fast and the feel of a good curveball (~74 mph). When I asked about his bullpen warmups, he said he wasn't feeling the slider so scraped it for the outing. When asked to order his comfortability with his pitches Stephen said usually it's a FB/CH/SL/CV order as his curveball is a fourth pitch offering that he's working on to give the hitters another look. As soon as Instructional League is over with Gonsalves said he'll shut it down pitching wise until January when he'll start long tossing and by February he'll be ready for his bullpen sessions, in the meantime he'll be ramping up his workout schedule.
 

Making an appearance over the weekend was Twins' masher Adam Brett Walker II, he's only gotten bigger since I saw him in Spring Training, truly a man-child. Walker was impressive at the plate working deep counts, making pitchers work while taking his big cuts. Adam left the game on Friday after four at bats with slight soreness in his wrist but was good enough to play on Saturday while maning leftfield at Fenway South.
He got to face some advanced pitching in BoSox prospects Anderson Espinoza, Logan Allen, and Michael Kopech before he heads out to the Arizona Fall League to face even better competition.  
Another prospect in town getting some reps before the AFL was righty power reliever Jake Reed. Reed looked real good at times in his one inning outing showing off a nasty slider with a hard 95mph fastball yet having a little command issues.
 

Yet one Twins prospect got the lion's share of the praise from the 20 or so scouts that were on hand this weekend, and that would be SS Nick Gordon. Gordon sat out on Friday but played SS and batted second on Saturday. The scouts I talked to raved about Nick, one AL East scout echoed the same sentiments I heard from BoSox coach Joe Oliver in that Nick's going to be better than his older brother Dee. The comp that the scout put on him might be unfair but should make Twins' fan overjoyed was that of pinstripe legend Derek Jeter. The scout elaborated for me that Gordon has all the tools across the board (he's going to stay at SS, can get on base, can steal, can hit and has some pop that he'll grow into), has great leadership, and great overall makeup.
 

Other tidbits from Instructs, Mike Cederoth has a very "unique" delivery if you've never seen it, where most pitchers push off the rubber, Mike takes a little hop and actually pushes off an inch or two in front of the rubber. The Red Sox players/coaches were shouting from the bench that "he's cheating" but the umpire said he was within the guidelines of "the book". By doing so, Cederoth is able to increase his extension and release point which in turn makes that 93 mph look like it's 95 mph.
 

Lamonte Wade shows an advanced approach at the plate, working counts and puts good wood on the ball often; keep on eye on him. Tyree Davis is itching to get on the ballfield and from the sounds of it might be ready for the last week of Instructs. If you don't know, Davis injured his elbow and elected for rehab for the torn joint instead of surgery. Tyree has bulked up while he's been off the field, adding 20 lb of muscle; he wants to play winter ball but is unsure if he'll get the okay from management. Yorman Landa saw some game action that had his fastball at 94-95mph and threw for two innings. Pitchers on Friday included Stephen Gonsalves (2IP start), Yorman Landa (2IP), Alex Robinson, Logan Lombana, and Johan Quezada. Pitchers on Saturday included Sam Clay (4IP start), Brandon Poulson, Jake Reed, Mike Theofanopoulos, Mike Cederoth, and Rich Condeelis.
 
I'll be back next weekend as the Twins wrap up their Instructional League play and players either head home for the winter or off to Arizona, Mexico, Austraila, or the Caribbean for more playing time.

As the summer draws on and the fall draws near, lots of changes shape the Major League baseball landscape. There's the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, and then the August waiver period. There's divisional races, and then there' s September call ups. Despite the Twins strong start, the most exciting period of 2015 may be that call up window, and in part, because of a Twins prospect demanding your attention.
Sure, Jose Berrios is having a good year, Nick Gordon is trending up, and Byron Buxton should be back in the fold. In September though, it should be all about a 22 year old from Germany. Signed as an international free agent, Max Kepler has been playing in the Twins organization since he was 17 years old. He's been talked up almost equally as long.
 
Maybe not the uber-prospect that fellow international signee Miguel Sano was, Kepler has held his own. After struggling with injury issues early on in his professional career, it's really been the last two seasons that Kepler has put it together.
 
Spending the entirety of 2014 with High-A Fort Myers, Kepler played in a career high 102 games. In that action, he slashed .264/.333/.393 with 20 doubles, six triples, five home runs and 59 RBI. Any way you cut it, the Twins had to be pleased. As respectable as 2014 was though, it's been 2015 where Kepler has really put his stamp on the organization.
Minnesota decided to allow Kepler to get his feet wet in a few games (six to be exact) near the spring training complex in Fort Myers. Since being shipped off to Double-A Chattanooga, he has been also systems go though. Owning a .331/.414/.529 slash line on the season, it's even more impressive to see how he's hit lately. Sine June 11, Kepler has batted .381/.493/.593 while playing in 33 games and being honored with a selection for the Major League Baseball Future's Game in Cincinnati.
 
On the year, Kepler has substantiated his success to the tune of 92 hits, 25 doubles, nine triples, four home runs, 44 runs batted in, and a near even 42/39 K/BB ratio. He's split time almost evenly playing 37 games at first base, while being positioned in the outfield 34 times (most often in right). Kepler has been sure with the glove making just two errors in 84 outfield chances as well as two errors in 317 chances at first base.
 
When looking through the farm system as a whole, and the Twins are well noted as having one of the best in the bigs, you'd be hard pressed to find a more intriguing offensive talent. As the production continues to toe the line of otherworldly, Kepler continues to go about his business and make it look routine.
Minnesota no doubt has it's eyes set on which prospects will be considered for a September cup of coffee, and it's hard to believe Kepler wouldn't be first in line. Already a 40 man roster inclusion, Kepler has all the makings of the ability to push for an opening day spot in 2016. If he continues the run he's currently on, holding him down is something the Twins will find themselves hard pressed to do.
As the wave of players like Sano, Buxton, and Berrios make their way to Target Field, don't make the foolish mistake of forgetting to include the German. Max Kepler appears to be the real deal and he should be getting a shot to prove it sooner rather than later.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz