Deduno Abides

Note: Thanks to spycake, I know now that we will forfeit pick 95. Even better. Only 2 players of 53 with significant careers. Amos Otis and Dave Cash. Addison Reed and his 6.8 WAR checks in as the third most successful pick 95.
 
What is the 75th pick in the draft worth? If the Twins sign Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn they would forfeit this pick. How much should this loss factor into the decision?
 
With the help of baseball reference, I took a look at all of the pick 75s since 1965. The very first pick 75 was Frederick Marden. Marden never pitched in the majors topping out in A-Ball. The first #75 pick to reach the majors is Don McCormack. McCormack might be remembered for his career major league batting average of .400. He accomplished this splitting his 2 career hits evenly over his 2 seasons. The first significant major leaguer was drafted in 1975. With 24.8 career WAR, Jason Thompson is among the very best players drafted at pick 75. There are three others with career WAR in the 20s in Tino Martinez, Grady Sizemore and Yunel Escobar. One other major league has had a significant career. Wade Davis has 11.7 career WAR. Five players with a significant career. Rounding out the top 10 are Scott Radinsky, Joe Lefebvre, Joel Johnston, A.J. Minter and the previously recognized Don McCormack.
 
Since Yunel Escobar was drafted in 2005, the 75th pick has a cumulative total of -1.2 WAR. Yes... there might be a significant player among them. Significant players occur about once a decade at this pick. That significant player isn’t going to come from players drafted between 2006 and 2013 though. That group is ages 25-32 and done or almost done.
 
Maybe pick 75 has just been unlucky. The Twins have never drafted 75th. Maybe they know better. Let’s increase the sample size and look at picks 74 and 76.
 
Pick 74 has three players of 53 thus far with a career WAR of 20 or better including the very first pick 74 in 1965. The Twins drafted Graig Nettles in 1965. The Twins do know better! He finished with a career WAR of 68.0 and has a good chance to remain the MV74P at least through my lifetime. Let’s hope Akil Baddoo challenges that number. I would hate to miss out on a Nettles to add Lance Lynn. Ironically, the Twins did lose out on Nettles in order to bolster the rotation by trading him for Luis Tiant. Tiant pitched well in one season for the Twins until hit by significant injury. David Cone comes in as the number 2 pick 74. He has career WAR of 62.5. The Royals missed out on 62.6 of that WAR when they traded him for Rick Anderson and Ed Hearn. Two fantastic pick 74s but the drafting teams had little to show for the wisdom of their picks. The other player with better than 20 career WAR is Jim Clancy at 21.3. Two players are still active with a small chance to get there are John Jay(13.1) and Tyler Chatwood(10.2).
 
How about pick 76?
 
Chase Utley is the MV76P almost in the clubhouse at 65.4 WAR. He will get challenged by Giancarlo Stanton currently with 35.1 WAR at age 28. The only other player drafted 76 with a career WAR above 20 is Marquis Grissom at 29.4. Only 9 of the 53 players drafted pick 76 have a positive career WAR including current major league catchers Nick Hundley, James McCann and JR Murphy. The Twins have drafted 76th twice. They drafted Graig’s brother Jim Nettles in 1968. His 1.1 career WAR ranks him 8th. Let’s hope Blayne Enlow adds his name to the short list of players with a significant career.
What is a pick 75 worth?
 
Ten players with significant careers thus far among the 159 players drafted picks 74 through 76. Nettles, Cone, Utley and Stanton had seasons where they were among the best at their positions. Teams hit on a major league star about 3% of the time although two drafting teams did not recognize their star. You find a player with a solid career about 7% of the time. Around 20% of the players will have achieved positive WAR in the majors.
 
Do you give up that pick to sign a free agent? I think so. I think you do so without blinking. It would be awful to lose out on Giancarlo Stanton but that likelihood seems so remote. If he is there at 75, he would have been there at 60. Pick him then. Losing the draft pick should have no impact on the Twins decision about signing Lynn or Cobb. It all has to be about the years and the dollars. If they can get either for two years, I would offer that contract without hesitation or thought of pick 75.
 
*WAR as calculated by baseball reference.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?draft_type=junreg&overall_pick=75&query_type=overall_pick

This offseason has been nothing short of unprecedented. It started with the 23-year-old sensation Shohei Ohtani deciding to leave Japan for the MLB, two years before he was eligible to sign without the International Free Agency restrictions. Then it was followed up with two months of absolute standstill for many of the top free agents. So, how could this season’s free agent market potentially cause Yu Darvish to sign for a lot less money than the six years and $160MM that MLB Trade Rumors had originally predicted? Let’s take a look.
 
In years past, the available marquee free agents were almost exclusively signed by the richest teams in baseball. In fact, 9 of the 20 richest contracts in MLB history were signed by either the Yankees, Dodgers or Red Sox. However, as MLB front offices are starting to get smarter, they are starting to learn that these big time free agent contracts are almost never worth it in the long run. As a result, teams are starting to shift their focus towards lower tier free agents that they can sign to short term, and more reasonably priced contracts, like relievers.
 
Another factor that will cause Darvish’s value to drop is the luxury-tax system. While MLB does not have salary cap like many other U.S. sports leagues do, they do have a luxury-tax that disincentivizes teams from spending frivolous amounts of money on free agents. As teams go further and further above the luxury-tax threshold, and as the number of years they spend above the threshold increases, so to does the amount that the teams are taxed. This is causing many of the top spending teams, who have spent the last few years above the luxury-tax threshold, to want to cut back on spending and get below it in 2018. As a result, these teams are choosing to take a pass on players like Darvish.
 
Major League Baseball has seen a stretch of extreme parity over the past half-decade, with 26 of the 30 teams having made a playoff appearance since 2011, along with traditional bottom dwellers, like the Royals, becoming World Series contenders. However, over the past year or two, the MLB has seen a real shift from a league filled with parity, to apparent “super teams” atop each division. The reasons for this are many, and I won’t go into details why in this post. So how does all of this impact Yu Darvish? Well, I have already touched on why many of the teams at the top aren’t looking to add Darvish, but now with this power separation, many teams are opting to go with a rebuilding strategy as opposed to signing free agents. This takes even more teams out of the running, that might have otherwise made a run at competing in 2018, and thus looking to sign Darvish.
 
So, who does this all leave that would be interested in signing Darvish? Well, it was reported that Yu Darvish has narrowed his list of teams down to six. These teams are the Rangers, Cubs, Dodgers, Astros, Yankees and of course the Twins.
 
Let’s look at the five other teams remaining that are competing with the Twins for Yu Darvish’s services. Saturday night, the Astros made a trade to acquire Pirates starter Gerrit Cole. With this move, it all but fills out the Astros’ rotation with Dallas Keuchel, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Lance McCullers Jr. as their 1-4, followed by quality starters in Brad Peacock, Charlie Morton and Collin McHugh competing for the 5th spot. This all but takes them out of the running for Yu Darvish.
 
Additionally, the Dodgers and Yankees are teams that are looking to stay below the $197MM luxury-tax threshold in 2018. As it stands, their projected 2018 salaries are $191MM and $172MM respectively. This means that signing Darvish will put the Dodgers well beyond the luxury-tax, and limits the Yankees to less than $25MM in average annual value (AAV) on Darvish’s contract in order to stay below. Doing so would leave the Yankees with no margin to play with if they need to sign or trade for another player throughout the season, which means they are probably out unless his value drops down below $20MM in AAV. The Rangers are also a team that have said that they are looking to cut payroll in 2018. While their motives to do so might not be luxury-tax related, their desire to do so makes it hard to see Darvish making a reunion with the team that originally signed him out of Japan in 2012.
 
This just leaves the Chicago Cubs, who are looking to replace 2015 NL Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta. The Cubs have also expressed an interest in staying below the luxury-tax, but given their roughly $30MM in space to work with, and the fact that they were below the luxury-tax in 2017, their incentives to stay below aren’t as great as the Dodgers and Yankees are. This most likely makes the Cubs the greatest competition that the Twins have for Darvish. While the Cubs could easily get into a bidding war with the Twins, and push his salary closer to the $30MM AAV range, I don’t see them doing so for a couple of reasons. The first is this would leave them with little to no room to work with in 2018 for any other additions if they wish to stay below the luxury-tax. The second, is they have shown interest in a potential reunion with Arrieta. If the price for Darvish gets too high, they could easily put their focus on bringing back Arrieta.
 
With all of that being said, this is great news for the Twins. Not only does it increase their chances of actually signing Yu Darvish, but they might be able to do so without having to break the bank. There is also a slight chance that they might be able to land Darvish on a five-year deal as opposed to a six or seven-year deal. This would be great for the Twins, as he would come off of the Twins books after his age 35 season. In the end, I see Darvish signing either a five or six-year deal, in the $115MM-$135MM range, a far cry from the six years and $160MM that was originally projected.

Not to take away from Steve Lein's excellent AFL summaries, but USAFChief and I (plus special guest ashburydavid) were in attendance at Surprise Stadium this afternoon, and we got to see several of our Twins prospects appear in the 6-2 loss to the Glendale Desert Dogs, so I thought I'd write something up, given all this Twins game action. Chief might chime in with his own perspectives, if he ever gets free of rush-hour traffic to his hotel.
 
Basically, nobody really impressed me, I'm sorry to say.
 
On the hitting side, only Lamont Wade appeared, playing the full game in RF.
 

 
At bat...
 

 
... he grounded out to second in the second inning...
 

 
... struck out (looking) in the fourth, walked in the sixth, and was hit by a pitch in the eighth. Good selectivity, I suppose, but not good enough contact. On defense, he made a couple of routine putouts, and couldn't quite get to a couple of foul balls that a faster player might have reached. Short-sample grade: Incomplete. I want to see more.
 
As for the pitchers, we saw each of the Twins contingent on this team, all in relief. First in was Ryan Eades, who came in with two outs in the third, and then pitched the fourth.
 

 
He gave up his first earned run of the AFL season, on a no-doubter home run to left field by leadoff hitter D.J. Peters of the Dodgers, who happened to lead off the fourth. A couple of other hard hit balls also were in play, one a gift double thanks to subpar ball-tracking by left-fielder Luis La O (sic), a Rangers prospect. Basically, Eades came across to me as just another pitcher, with a fastball in the low 90s.
 
In the sixth, Tyler Jay came on. Here he is during bullpen warmups. Side note: did you know that one of the jobs of the bullpen catcher is Physical Therapist and Trainer? Seriously, Jay's sidekick in the bullpen was working a kink out of the pitcher's shoulder when I watched him start to warm up.
 

 
Surprise Stadium offers the fan a nice view of the bullpen if you feel like taking a little stroll down the left field line:
 

 
Anyway, as for the game appearance, Jay likewise resided in the low 90s with his fastball; somehow I was hoping for more.
 

 
He didn't give up any hits and he struck out two, but he also walked two. He seemed aggressive against lefties but tentative versus right-handed batters. Dare I say, he nibbled.
 
He was followed in the seventh by Thomas Hackimer. (Somehow I wound up with no usable photos of him.) A side-arm righty of not very tall stature, his hit batsman resulted in a warning to both teams.* A wild pitch among the two walks and the HBP meant loaded bases, but he managed to get out of the inning without a run being scored, via a couple of earlier groundouts and a closing strikeout looking. Like Jay before him, Hackimer seemed to me overly cautious when facing batters of the opposite hand. The innings frankly dragged while our guys were messing around on the mound.
 
In the eighth inning lanky Andrew Vasquez completed the Twins farmhand effort for the day.
 

 
In fairness, he was not aided by a grounder that ate up third-baseman Kevin Padlo of Tampa for an error, but he also gave up a clean single to right. He did notch two strikeouts, but like his fellow Twins pitchers did not display a blazing fastball that I crave to see from our prospects.

 
Sad to say, it was probably the best performance among the group, earning maybe a C+.
 
All in all, no one stepped up this afternoon to make a case for being any kind of a darkhorse candidate for an early promotion to the big club as soon as mid-season 2018. IMO of course.
 
* The HBP warning seemed premature to both managers, and seemed to lapse later in the game when Wade was hit in the eighth with no resultant ejections. I really like the plate umpire's name though: J.J. January, a much better "baseball name" than Luis La O.
 
 
 
Source: Surprise Saguaros game, Thursday Nov 9

As the summer has drug on, the Minnesota Twins have been noted to need some right handed hitting help. Whether the roster is constructed with eight relievers, or the more efficient seven, a boost could be given to the 25 man with a strong hitter on the right side of the plate. For quite some time, Mitch Garver has made a case to be that guy, and it's time to take notice.
 
Thus far this season, Kennys Vargas has been shuttled between Triple-A Rochester and the big leagues six times. He's often been the guy sent down when a spot is needed, and he's been the easy choice with his production lacking. While the home run power is obvious, Vargas has posted a .723 OPS in 176 at bats, but owns just a .291 OBP in 2017. He has hit eight long balls, but his 54/10 K/BB ratio continues to drag him down. Add in the fact that he's been well below average defensively, and Minnesota simply can't find a reason to carry him.
 
If there's an opportunity for a new name the next time the big club decides to make a move, it's absolutely worth considering Garver. A 9th round pick in the 2013 MLB Draft, Mitch Garver has predominantly been a catcher in the Twins system. This season at Triple-A, he's branched out to playing first base and left field more often, only expanding his flexibility. Behind the dish, he's at worst an average receiver, and he's consistently thrown out one-third of would-be base stealers in his time as a pro.
 
Garver started to gain some real intrigue after a strong second season as a professional with Cedar Rapids. Postin an .880 OPS with 16 homers, there was excitement surrounding the New Mexico native heading into 2015. After scuffling for Fort Myers, he used a strong Arizona Fall League showing to bolster the last two years of his career. With a .764 OPS at Double and Triple-A a year ago, Garver's .915 OPS in 2017 takes his career up a notch. Consistent all season, Garver has already hit 13 homers, and ripped 20 doubles for the Red Wings in 2017.
 
When looking at his numbers as a whole, it may be easy to overlook just how good Garver has been of late as well. Over the course of his last 31 games, Garver owns a .328/.389/.630 slash line with 12 doubles and eight long balls. On the season, his .884 OPS against righties is solid, and his 1.005 OPS against lefties is downright incredible.
 
With the Twins currently opting to go the extra pitcher route, they've found themselves using the likes of Jorge Polanco and Eduardo Escobar as the designated hitter. Bench bats have included Chris Gimenez and Ehire Adrianza. When on the roster, Kennys Vargas has played first poorly. Robbie Grossman has shown significant limitations in the outfield, and the 25 man as a whole continues to clamor for a more versatile righty.
 
It would be foolish to expect Garver to come up and be some sort of a savior for the Twins club. A catcher first, any other position will see some drop off as a secondary position. Also, while hitting the snot out of the ball at Triple-A, he's a 26 year-old rookie that would likely need some time to adjust to the next level. What's also foolish to expect, is that Garver isn't up to the task.
 
Thanks to the lackluster play of the Cleveland Indians, the Minnesota Twins find themselves in the thick of the AL Central division race. Squeezing out extra wins by raising the water level on the roster with players from within seems like a solid strategy. Mitch Garver represents a clear upgrade for the hometown nine, and it's time he gets his shot.
 
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Ervin Santana is on top of his game.
 
Earlier this evening, Santana blanked the Baltimore Orioles in a complete game win. It's his second complete game shutout on the season. Santana allowed just two hits, two walks, no runs, and no baserunners after the fifth inning.
 
Santana owns a 7-2 record with a 1.80 ERA in ten starts. In 70.0 innings, he has allowed a mere 31 hits.
 
After tonight, Santana has now won all four of his road starts, allowing just one run in 29.0 innings in those starts.
 
The bottom of the ninth inning in tonight's game was a thing of beauty. Leading off and trailing by two runs, Adam Jones took a fastball and then a slider out of the zone, working Santana to a favorable 2-0 hitter's count. Then, like a true poker player, Santana stared down Jones and threw a thigh-high fastball, which Jones took for a strike. That ran the count to 2-1 and back in Santana's favor. Jones grounded out the next pitch. Then Manny Machado came up, fell behind 0-1, and couldn't lay off pitches out of the zone after that, striking out on a slider in the dirt. Mark Trumbo then came to bat and grounded out on the first pitch to end the game.
 
Great pitch-calling, great execution of those pitches, great approach to batters the third and fourth times through the order, no doubt also some great scouting reports and comparing of notes when necessary as the game went on. Santana was in complete control. Great pitching is truly an art. Now excuse me while I go fetch a handkerchief.

As the spring training slate comes to a close, I couldn't help but find myself wondering about the pitching for the Minnesota Twins. The organization put forth the worst starting ERA in the majors a season ago, and the relief corps wasn't far behind. Going into 2017, it needs to be markedly better, and there's three different storylines I'm keyed in on.
 
First, let's start with the good. Kyle Gibson has been one of the best storylines for the Minnesota Twins this spring. Across seven starts, he's compiled 28.1 IP worth of work, and owns a 1.59 ERA. Although the sinkerballer has just 19 strikeouts, he's only issued five free passes, and has been incredibly efficient.
 
Coming off of his worst year as a major leaguer, Gibson has some late breakout appeal. He posted a 3.84 ERA along with a 3.96 FIP in 2015, and there was some real steam behind him being a star performer a season ago. Unfortunately that never got off the ground, and while defense hurt him, he didn't help himself much either.
 
Although spring numbers can be taken with a very small grain of salt, he's looked like a man on a mission. Gibson has been efficient, calculated, and very, very good. I don't want to suggest that it's because of his Florida performance that causes him to breakout, but a very good outfield should help him, and this could be the year we see Kyle Gibson look like the Twins former top pitching prospect was expected to perform.
 
Now, somewhere in the middle ground, we find Jose Berrios. Recently he was optioned to Triple-A Rochester. I can understand that he wasn't ramped up after pitching (or not pitching enough) in the World Baseball Classic. However, if he was truly in play for the 5th starter spot, he could have easily been stretched out for 80 pitches by the time his first outing rolled around. The more I thought about the decision, the more frustration I found myself having.
 
Berrios is headed back to Triple-A again, and he'll be making his 31st start there, as parts of three major stints. For a top pitching prospect that's really blocked by no one, it's a relatively unprecedented move. Minnesota has a hopeful Phil Hughes, and an unnecessary Hector Santiago in their rotation. If the latter ended up bouncing Berrios, that's an unfortunate development.
 
At some point, the command has to develop for Berrios, and if Minnesota believes he's better off not working with Neil Allen every day, that's probably an indictment of their big league pitching coach. While I can understand the legitimacy of the reasoning behind his optioning, the optics behind it don't look good, and the Twins again decided against giving a high ceiling arm an opportunity.
 
Rounding out the trio is a situation that absolutely revolves around high ceilings. In the bullpen, I've often suggested the need to be either creative or good. As Minnesota heads north, it doesn't appear their seven relievers will be either of those things. In my last roster projection, I tabbed the group as being Kintzler, Belisle, Pressly, Wimmers, Haley, Breslow, and Rogers. Of that group, you could probably tab Pressly as good, with creative going to Rogers.
 
Over the offseason, the Twins knew relief pitching was an issue for them. Instead of throwing more money than maybe a player was worth at names like Romo, Holland, Feliz, or any number of others, they settled on one veteran While Matt Belisle has proved serviceable of late, he wasn't going to be near the top of anyone's relief help list. They enlisted Craig Breslow as a veteran who's reinvented himself, but even he was brought in on a minor league deal.
 
When the dust settled, Minnesota did nothing to greatly improve its pen from outside. Regardless of the fact that veteran relievers can be had easily on one-year deals (and flipped just as easily) Minnesota stood pat. Then they doubled down on the move by suggesting that none of J.T. Chargois, Jake Reed, or Nick Burdi were ready for the big time.
 
It's absolutely fair to have reservations about those prospects, but if your pen isn't going to be good, giving them run is far from a bad ask. There was really nothing determined this spring that the Twins didn't already know on those prospects either, so the idea that they were on the outside looking in with no real talented veterans above them is a bit disheartening.
 
At the end of the day, the Twins are going to have to navigate some tough situations on the mound. The rotation remains relatively unchanged, and while Berrios can breathe life into it at some point, Santiago may be sucking it out for a while. Kyle Gibson could be on the verge of a breakthrough, and Paul Molitor desperately needs him to do so. In the pen, the lack of managerial acumen Molitor showed last season, combined with hit or miss arms, Minnesota could be looking at more blown leads than they care to admit to.
 
Baseball is a game of pitching and hitting, and if you don't have the former, the latter doesn't matter much. The Twins may win one, they're likely going to lose one of these storylines, and well, Jose, it rains...
 
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My first Minnesota Twins 25 man roster projection came out way back in January, the second version was then looked at in the middle of March. Now with Spring Training virtually over, it's time to get serious about who's coming north. It seems pretty clear who Minnesota will bring, but before the final announcement is made, I need to take one last shot.
 
The Twins still have just over 40 guys left in camp, and 10 of them are non-roster guys. A few of them have already been told they'll be reassigned to Rochester, so that helps with clarity a bit further. Given what we know, here's how I see the final 25 shaking out.
 
Rotation (5)
Ervin Santana
Hector Santiago
Kyle Gibson
Phil Hughes
Tyler Duffey

Paul Molitor recently told Mike Berardino that Santiago would start game 2 behind Santana, with Gibson to follow. That means Hughes gets the fourth game of the year and the fifth starter makes their debut against the White Sox. While the 5th starter could have been Trevor May or Adalberto Mejia, it's Tyler Duffey who has had a spring worthy of holding onto the job. I still think long term he profiles best in the pen, but to start 2017, this is where he begins.
 
Starting Lineup (9)
Jason Castro C
Joe Mauer 1B
Brian Dozier 2B
Jorge Polanco SS
Miguel Sano 3B
Eddie Rosario LF
Byron Buxton CF
Max Kepler RF
ByungHo Park DH

No changes here from roster projection 2.0. Kennys Vargas was given the opportunity to win the DH spot and simply fell short. He went to the WBC, didn't play, and then got hurt when he returned. I remain skeptical Vargas is a productive big leaguer, and while the injury gives Minnesota something to pin it on, the reality is that Park is simply the better DH option.
 
If there's something of intrigue here, it's that Eddie Rosario put together a really nice WBC and spring in general. He's expanding the zone just a bit less, and looks locked in defensively. If he can bring back some of the magic from his rookie season, the Twins stand to benefit big time.
 
Bench (4)
Eduardo Escobar
Robbie Grossman
Chris Gimenez
Danny Santana

Much remains the same here from the roster projection earlier this month. Drew Stubbs failed to capitalize on his opportunity to take Grossman's spot and has been released. The biggest difference is the inclusion of Danny Santana.
 
The final bench spot should've (and likely would've) been Ehire Adrianza's. A strained oblique late in spring training is going to have him open the season on the DL, and that likely saves Santana from the DFA that was looming. I don't see him as a productive big leaguer, he plays poor defense everywhere and struggles with the bat, but he's going to get a couple weeks to prove it.
 
Bullpen (7)
Brandon Kitnzler Closer
Ryan Pressly Setup
Matt Belisle
Justin Haley
Craig Breslow
Taylor Rogers
Alex Wimmers

The bullpen has seen a little bit of a shakeup since earlier this month. Chargois was optioned to Triple-A, and while it would've been nice to see him make the big league club, the reality was that a shaky spring did him in. I expect him to grab saves for Minnesota at some point in 2017, but he'll start the year on the farm.
 
Taking the place of Chargois comes down to a two man race between Michael Tonkin and Alex Wimmers. The former is out of options and likely wouldn't pass through waivers, but his spring hasn't been indicative of a guy the Twins can rely on. Coming back on a minor league deal, Wimmers has been solid enough in the limited spring action, and could offer some value in middle relief. His velocity has seen a spike since moving to the pen, he has been a better pitcher. It remains a tossup as to what the Twins do there, but Tonkin may have used his last chance.
 
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Today the big league club was on the road, and I did not follow them, returning to my haunts at CenturyLink Sports Complex.
 
It was a bit of an abbreviated day on the back fields for me, as I didn't arrive until 11, and the players had already departed for their lunchtime break because the games were slated for noon. And then that noon start meant the game was over well before 3:00. Fellow TD moderator ChiTownTwinsFan joined me to watch the Cedar Rapids single-A squad (or at least the momentary roster bearing that designation - with Gentleman Tommy Watkins guiding them) play their counterparts from the Baltimore Orioles farm system. There was a high-A Fort Myers squad playing their game 30 or 40 yards to the west, but I never got around to even taking a look-see.
 
I failed to do my homework, and discovered as I strolled in that Stephen Gonsalves (no single-A player now, of course) was warming up and slated to start, making this to my knowledge his first "official" action since being sidelined with a bum shoulder March 8. I heard scuttlebutt as the game started that he would pitch only one inning, and that's exactly what played out. He struck out the first two batters, gave up a sharp double to right field, then got another strikeout for the third out. Some people call that striking out the side; I don't, sorry. But it was a satisfactory inning, I'm sure, and if he doesn't report pain then it will have been a very good start indeed.
 
Here, take a look at this photo: does anyone know what this grip is, with Stephen's pinky flared up like he's drinking tea with the Queen? Looks kind of like a circle change or a palm ball, but is the pinky important to that or not? It wasn't evident to me in real-time, but I did notice when I looked through the photos after dropping the film off at Walgreens and picking up the prints.*
 

 

 
The game moved fast, not solely because of the lack of TV advertising, but because it was a low-scoring affair until the very end. The Twins broke through in the bottom of the first inning with a run, and it stayed 1-0 until they tacked on an insurance run in the 8th. Unfortunately, they should have bought more insurance: 22-year old relief prospect Logan Lombana coughed up three or four runs in the top of the ninth, after beginning with two quiet putouts.
 
Three or four, you say? Yeah. A few years ago, I learned a new notation, when keeping a scoresheet of a game: "WW". Ever heard of that one? Have I mentioned it before? It stands for: Wasn't Watching. Well, there were several of those in my scoresheet today. I spent an inordinate amount of time trying to keep the lineups straight, which meant that several times I looked at the field and asked "how'd he get on base?" and not every time did someone within earshot admit to knowing. I now know that in a Spring game, you can't even assume there will be 9-man batting orders. Unless I suddenly forgot how to count, I believe both teams cycled through 10 batters in this game. Even "better" for record-keeping, in that climactic ninth inning, I swear Baltimore skipped a batter. This way lies Madness! If I simply overlooked him, then he was part of the two-out parade on the bases and it's four runs; otherwise, three. We lost either 4-2 or 3-2, so either way no extra innings needed to be played (or, more probably, dispensed with because, you know, "Spring Training").
 
Yesterday I just jotted down impressions of the game I watched. I'm not sure my scoresheet today gives me any better picture of this one.
 
OK, here is something I am sure about: Ben Rortvedt is the real deal on defense. He gunned down two would-be base stealers. I'm too lazy a photographer to wait long enough to capture a shot of that, but here he is in typical posture to receive a strike - looks like good form, also making life easy for Blue behind him, to this untrained observer.
 

 
Contrast that with this somewhat less graceful and confident stance by Orioles counterpart Ronald Soto (sorry to pick on you, Ron, especially because it's not quite an apples-to-apples comparison):
 

 
On top of that, I would also venture to say Ben has the "good face" that old-school scouting mavens such as Terry Ryan prize:
 

 
As for other impressions of our young Twins: outfielders Aaron Whitefield and Casey Scoggins both showed good speed on the bases and in the field. I'm sorry to report that T.J. White bollixed a couple of plays at third base, although he did do well going back on a popup (and he did drive in that run in the first inning). On the pitching side of the ledger, Eduardo del Rosario (not to be mistaken for a similarly-named outfielder in the Twins' employ) pitched innings 2 through 6 and gave up a few baserunners but nothing too serious, as the shutout continued. Domenick Carlini wriggled out of trouble after allowing two baserunners to start the seventh, and Alex Robinson pitched a clean eighth. As mentioned, Lombana pitched an untidy ninth, unable to secure that final out quickly and allowing five (or six?) baserunners before he could finally shut the door. One overall impression was that Gentleman Tommy in the dugout had all the pitchers focusing on holding every second-base runner (which involves the catcher, of course).
 
As the game drew to a close, a few fans in the small grandstand were discussing housing arrangements for the Cedar Rapids players this summer. A relative of Caleb Hamilton, who plays infield, was collecting some phone numbers from CR folks in attendance who are involved in the hosting program. Very cool networking, although it's unfortunate if the players and families feel in the dark about what to expect, since the team goes through the same process every year and the players are the ones who are new at it.
 
As usual, the area cleared quickly once the game was over, with the fans shuffling to their cars and the visiting players walking briskly to their buses. The Twins players headed over to their training complex building. And me, I headed to Rib City nearby, for a belated lunch.
 
* Just kidding - I embraced the digital revolution in photography a few weeks or months ago, I forget exactly when.

Greetings from sunny Florida! I'm lucky enough to be in Ft Myers for a week during Spring Training.
 
Today I spent the day mainly on the back fields, watching the minor league prospects. Normally I call these reports Hammond Notes (I must have been under the impression everyone remembers Hammond Organs when I thunk up that one), but Hammond is strictly speaking the major league field here, and it would be clunky to title today's entry CenturyLink Sports Complex Notes. The photo here is of all the dummies watching the major leaguers take batting practice - they don't know what they are missing!
 
I arrived at the crack of dawn, namely 9:30 am, in time to see the players begin their warmup calisthenics. It being the day of a major league game, CenturyLink Sports Complex was charging $10 for parking. Note to anyone intending to follow a plan like mine: in-and-out privileges are not included when you pay to park, and there is no food service outside the main ballpark so bring a lunch (there is a water fountain by the bathroom at the center of the back fields) or else prepare to pay twice for parking - plus it's hard driving out when they're letting everyone else in. Tomorrow and Thursday are away games, so I can get in for free unless I am misremembering protocol.
 

 
The day's drills were enjoyable to watch, and not especially stressful looking for the players either. Pitchers worked on fielding comebackers on Field 5. While nobody embarrassed himself, and there were a few good snags of the balls coming out of the repurposed pitching machine, I didn't spot any budding shortstops in the group either. Here's Lewis Thorpe giving it a try - notice how he keeps the meat hand (AKA moneymaker) safely out of the way. Notice also my skillful use of the camera's autofocus, bringing into crisp view the mesh of the decorative yet functional chain link fence.
 

 
Later, on Field 3, a group of players practiced specialized situations, such as the pitcher covering third on an extra-base hit by a lefthanded pull-hitter against an extreme shift (seriously). It seemed to me there was a lot of dead time in this, where the coach in charge would stop to talk to a small group of players, and the others, far out of earshot, would just be standing around. Maybe this is optimal - I'm not a coach or anything. During this idle time, I spotted catchers Dan Rohlfing, Karim Kevin**** Garcia, and one I wasn't able to deduce even using my vast sleuthing skills, practicing the art of tossing a baseball into the air and catching it in the mesh of their mask. I am confident this important skill will be the deciding factor in Game 7 of the World Series, some year very soon. It's the new Framing.
 

 
Closer to game time, I ventured again to the front of the CenturyLink Sports Complex and met up briefly with ChiTownTwinsFan, who was attending the major league game with family. We'll share a game or three later this week with others who are arriving.
 
After a spartan lunch (which, did I mention, I thought to bring) and a nap resting my eyes while lying down on the metal bleachers in the shade for 5 minutes, 10 minutes tops, I watched the two games against Tampa Bay Rays prospects, which began around 1 pm. Nominal AAA and AA squads were represented, and in the AAA game both teams used 40-man pitchers as their starters. I should tell you at the outset that I switched attention between the two games and did not keep an actual scoresheet for either one, and moreover I have no idea who "won" either contest - I merely took notes of what I thought to be interesting.
 
Matt Belisle went a couple of innings for the Twins and pitched pretty well.
 

 
He was aided by a very fine shoestring catch by Zach Granite in center on the first pitch. Pro tip: call him Granny, like some of his teammates and/or coaches do. Niko Goodrum, playing shortstop, also contributed a nice play in the first, to his right on a ball just out of third baseman's reach - I wrote the latter's name down as Ganache but I can't locate such a player now at my computer. Later on in the AAA game, there was a very nice play by Engelb Vielma at second base, coming in on the ball and making it look easy, to get the batter by a step. All in all, the defense looked good, every time my attention was focused on Field 3.
 
Two-year major-league veteran Matt Andriese of the Rays didn't fare as well. As I said, I didn't keep a scoresheet, but my impression was that he gave up lots of base hits and plenty of runs. In the first, Goodrum doubled to right field (in this game he was making good contact each time I looked), Dan Palka followed with a two-strike opposite field RBI single to left that I overheard someone on the bench call a "nice piece of hitting", and then Mitch Garver followed with a homer to left center.
 

 
On Field 4, the Twins also had a major league reliever serve as starter. I didn't see a lot of Kintzler's work, but a comment from a fellow fan led me to think he wasn't especially effective. I guess we'll all form our own opinions from that tidbit, according to our individual prejudices.
 
Edgar Corcino botched a flyball in left field, and someone brought him a pair of sunglasses in time for the next pitch - oops, Kangaroo Kourt fine, shall we say? Fernando Romero pitched next, and I thought he got cuffed about quite a bit. However toward the end of his first inning he started throwing heat more visibly, and the results improved. But then, he dropped a comebacker to the mound. (I don't recall whether he was in the group practicing that in the morning.) They ended the inning early after that, which sometimes is the custom on the minor league fields, and I thought that meant he was done for the day, but he pitched the next inning, and again was effective. Maybe the Rays had batted around, and the ground rules say that's enough - hey, let the other kids have a turn, willya?
 
Back on Field 3, I saw Vielma have a rough day at the plate, which of course has been the question mark about him as a high-end prospect we want him to become. He's one of the guys I wanted to scrutinze at the plate on this visit, and I am encouraged compared to my expectations that he might swing like Pedro Florimon. No, he "has a notion up there" at the plate - he's not clueless. But, he's also a bit overmatched, particularly on pitches in the upper half of the strike zone, as he tends to swing right through them with disturbing frequency, at least on this day. Being unable to hit certain strikes would not be a good thing in the majors. (He'll also chase, on pitches higher than that, but that seems more correctable.) At least, I didn't see Buxton's Syndrome, namely being unable to recognize off-speed pitches in the dirt, so that's a mild positive. I hope his batting coach can teach him to figure out a few things this year - maybe this ugly photo will help.
 

 
Turning back to the AA game, Randy Rosario showed a good fastball but only so-so control.
 

 
John Curtiss, by contrast, looked very much in control of his good fastball, and seems poised to build at AA upon his successful 2016.
 

 
Minor league free agent utility player (OF, 3B) Tom Belza really got ahold of a pitch late in the game for a 3-run jack. He's not a guy with stellar power numbers in the past, but if he's ready to put things together maybe he can get his cup of coffee or perhaps even a little more - he's someone I'll keep an eye on just for fun, now that he has forced me to pay attention to him. On the other hand, shortly after his homer, he got spun around fielding a hot smash at third base, costing him just enough time to fail to retire the batter, so my snap assessment is he'll remain a longshot.
 
In the AAA game, relief prospect Trevor Hildenberger made easy work of the Rays batters in the final inning. He has what looks like nasty stuff from a variety of angles.
 
In the AA game (are you getting whiplash yet? that's my intention, as it mimics the fun of watching two games on adjacent fields), Nick Gordon got a ground rule* double to left, followed by a long double to center by recent minor league signing Josh Romanski - another promising event today for a long-shot athlete in his prime. You Never Know. Here's Gordon, probably not on the pitch he doubled on.
 

 
An interesting sidelight, at least for me: at the end of his inning of work, Rays prospect pitcher Jairo Munoz came off the field cursing, presumably at himself for the hits against him. Longtime Rays coach R.C. Lichtenstein, who was monitoring the game outside the fence, made a beeline toward the entrance to the dugout. Being a nosy type of person, I trailed him and listened in. He didn't castigate the pitcher for the outburst and instead gave him a pep talk, focusing on some good things that happened on the mound and what he might do differently. I had noticed this coach the last time I was in Ft Myers - he seems like a really good asset to the team, although of course I have little insight into what truly separates one coach from another.
 
Speaking of coaches, Rick ("Brother of David") Eckstein was there in a Twins uniform. I had not noticed the news of his being added. If he were not in uniform, you would never guess he was anything but "just some guy". I bet he gets that a lot. **
 
Anyway, Nick Burdi finished up the AA game, and while I didn't see any real magic, he had a good inning. In the bottom of that inning, Levi Michael got hit in the ribs by a pitch, and he yelped as soon as the ball touched him. Me, it takes several seconds before I know whether I'm hurt. But he was OK, at least to the extent of being able to run the bases normally.
 
WIth the AA game completed, I turned back for the finish of the AAA game. Kyle Winkler closed out the game for the Rays, and though he's a little long in the tooth (26) for a prospect, I was fooled into thinking he might be something better, because he mowed down Palka and then ended the game by making Garver fail to check his swing.
 
Here is a Rays trainer inflicting rotator-cuff damage on a prospect who missed curfew. When will the hazing of rookies cease? The padded table looked comfy, though, and I considered asking whether he accepted walk-ins for theraputic massage.
 

 
After the game, I watched Granite Granny stop to sign an autograph for possibly the politest kid I ever met. And then I saw the Rays' Andrew Velazquez sign for a Rays fan, causing me to wonder if he is a big-time prospect. Um, nope, at least not according to Sickels - guess the kid just had a personal rooting interest.
 
And with that, I'm off to sample the culinary delicacies that Ft Myers is famous for. Wait, what? Is that a thing?***
 
*I know that a ball that bounces over the fence isn't technically part of the ground rules, it's just a baseball rule. It's what we call it, OK?
 
** His brother was a major league veteran - a fringe star even - and like his brother, Rick is way way short.
 
*** Pinchers Crab Shack turned out to have pretty good grouper.
 
**** H/T to Seth Stohs for the correction

2/3 of an inning, 4 BBs, 0 Ks, a double and a triple (by Kyle Schwarber!), and 3 ER.
 
'Nuf said.
 
March 9: changed "Ws" to "BBs" in response to comments from Louie C.K.

Last season, the Minnesota Twins jettisoned Ricky Nolasco to the Los Angeles Angeles. The move was widely applauded as it purged Nolasco's contract from Minnesota and got him out of the rotation. What was overlooked however, was that former top prospect Alex Meyer was thrown in, and Hector Santiago was coming back to the Twins.
 
There's no kind way to put it, Nolasco was a disaster in Minnesota. Terry Ryan over-extended himself by spending on starting pitching that had almost no chance of paying off. In trading Nolasco to the Angels though, Minnesota simply took on a similar pitcher. Hector Santiago was awarded $8 million through arbitration, and the club is still paying the Angels $4 million of Nolasco's salary this season. Essentially they gave up Alex Meyer simply to get a team to take Nolasco off their hands.
 
Santiago came over to Minnesota in the midst of a hot streak, and there was some thought he could pitch right around the high water level he'd established. What ended up taking place however, was 11 starts to the tune of a 5.58 ERA and a 5.82 FIP. His strikeout numbers plummeted and he gave up 13 homers in those starts.
 
Although Santiago was an All Star in 2015, his recent career has always had reason for concern. In his All Star campaign, he gave up a league leading 29 homers, and then backed that up with 33 in 2016. He also surrendered a league leading (and career worst) 79 walks last season. For a guy that's never thrown over 182 innings, and owns a 4.84 FIP since 2014, he's got very few things going in his favor.
 
Since his 2011 debut with the White Sox, Santiago's velocity has fallen off as well. Topping out at a 93.8 mph fastball then, he's fallen to hovering right around 90 mph last season, and routinely sitting there is a stretch. His contact rate checked in at 81.8% last season, which was it's highest since 2014. If there's a level of consistency, it's found in Santiago's swing and miss stuff, which has routinely generated an 8% mark throughout his career.
 
The reality though, when looking at the sum of all parts, is that the Twins are going to be asking a lot from a guy they already have cemented into their rotation. There's real reason to believe that Santiago could be among the Twins worst pitchers this season. He serves up dingers at an alarming rate, his velocity has dipped, and his command has waned. He could be helped out by the boost that Jason Castro will serve over Kurt Suzuki, but he's going to need a significant jump.
 
If Santiago wasn't the Twins return for Nolasco, or frankly if he had a different name on the back of his jersey, you'd be able to make a real argument he'd struggle to make this club. Considering top prospect Jose Berrios has little to prove in the minors at this point, running him out there more consistently would provide more long term benefit.
 
As things stand. Paul Molitor and the Twins are going to be forced to choose between Trevor May, Berrios, Adalberto Mejia, Justin Haley, Ryan Vogelsong, and Nick Tepesch for one spot. There's absolutely some guys in that group that will be filtered out, but on numbers alone, there isn't a reason to suggest Santiago is better than the bulk of the group. Having to settle for him no matter what ties the hands of the Twins rotation a bit, and it was already not in a good place.
 
Maybe everything gets turned on its head, and Santiago's first full year in Minnesota allows him to acclimate and things go incredibly well. Looking at the numbers he's put up, and the way things have trended for him though, that's a pretty big ask. Hector Santiago is going to be in the Twins rotation, but he may just be another form of Ricky Nolasco.
 
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In 2016, very few things have gone right for any extended period of time for the Twins. Whether it be losing, injuries, or mismanagement, the group has not had a good showing coming off of a near playoff year (flukey as it may have been). There's one guy, and his situation, that may embody most of the shortcomings for Minnesota this season, Jorge Polanco.
 
Now, before you go leaping off the deep end, Jorge Polanco has been arguably one of the best players from the Twins in 2016. He's absolutely nowhere near their list of problems. However, the handling, utilization, and understanding of Jorge Polanco may almost perfectly describe a host of the Twins shortcomings this season.
 
Starting the year off down at Triple-A, Polanco was looking up at a roster that didn't seem to have much room for him. Brian Dozier was entrenched at second base, and at some point, the plan was for Miguel Sano to take over at third. Really, the only thing left up in the air was whether or not Minnesota had a real shortstop. For the better part of the first half, Eduardo Nunez played out of his gourd, earned an All Star trip, and held down the role. When he was flipped to San Franscisco though, it finally became time for Polanco to play.
 
By this time, Polanco had already been shuffled between Triple-A Rochester and the big leagues three different times. Each time he was called up, manager Paul Molitor seemingly didn't know how to use him. He didn't find time in the lineup, and he was passed over for lesser options. Molitor's public comments were of the vein that as a young player, there may not be much of a role for him one the big league club at the current juncture.
 
Here's the problem with that train of though, Jorge Polanco is 23 years old, and already out of options a season from now. He's one of Minnesota's best prospects, and there's very little track record of him being given any considerable run to showcase his talents at the highest level. On a team with a record among the worst in baseball, there's no excuse to continue to exclude him.
 
Finally, the training wheels come off. Since his most recent promotion he's played in 18 games for the Twins. Polanco has hits in 16 of those games, and has gone from hitting at the bottom of the order, to being among the top three. He owns a .347/.355/.440 slash line, and has been a catalyst for the Minnesota offense. If there was one thing known about Polanco, it's that his bat would play, and it has.
 
Then there's the other side of the equation, defense. Molitor shuffled Polanco around between third, second, and short to start. Despite knowing that two-thirds of those positions were supposedly spoken for, Polanco still being utilized as a utility type. It wasn't until his eighth game with the club, following his recall, that he finally played shortstop. Then, Molitor played him there three games in a row, and eight of the last 11 contests. The decision is only concerning because of the way in which we've gotten here.
 
Despite playing nearly 3,000 minor league innings at short in his career, Polanco played a whopping zero there this season for Triple-A Rochester. Although it appeared that was his best bet for consistent playing time, Minnesota operated using the idea that Polanco's arm wasn't strong enough for the role, as absolute truth and didn't manage their roster accordingly. Since, and with the understanding that it's a small sample size (just 72 innings), Polanco has been worth 3 defensive runs saved and posted a 1.8 UZR. Those marks make him easily the only productive defensive shortstop the Twins have had this season. Having had 40 chances now across his post-recall time at short, Polanco has committed just one error, and it was of the fielding variety.
 
At this point, Jorge Polanco is no more than long term answer at shortstop for the Twins than he may have been entering the season. What he has been however, is a tale of youth that has been underutilized, an organization that was ill-prepared, and a management style that doesn't suggest awareness of the positioning in the standings relative to the long term goals of the club. If Minnesota is actually going to rely upon their developed talent as they should be, knowing when to get the acclimated, comfortable, and productive is something that can't continue to be overlooked.
 
For now, Polanco may have given the Twins enough leash to save themselves, but this is a trend that can't continue to happen.
 
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