Deduno Abides

Turner is a good comp. Note that his deal with the Dodgers was signed in December. Braves, Phillies and Padres have internal candidates, like Albies, Hernandez, Kingery and Urias. The Reds are hard to figure. The Brewers could be looking, if they don’t think Hiura is ready and they have budget for a 2B. There really isn’t a clear competitor for the Twins at this time. The Twins will at least get a comp pick.

In the playoffs? Would prefer better contact.

Nick, you omitted this year’s WS Game 7 catcher, Joe Mauer.

Look, I’m not going to go further into a debate about whether Sano or Buxton has worse strike zone control, but I will say that a defense of Sano by saying he was better than Buxton after how Buxton started the year is in itself not a great case for Sano. If you do want to discuss Buxton’s weaknesses, I’ve got a hunch you’ll have a chance soon. Unless the world stops, a centerfield thread should be posted in the next few days.

Of course, but Buxton’s stats in those areas last year were better than Sano’s, even with Buxton’s miserable start. Buxton also adds value as one of the top players in the majors in at least two categories.

In any scenario, it’s hard to see Romero getting more than 80 innings in the majors this year. It is preferable that they come at the end of the year, after he’s refined his pitches further on the farm. Also, if things are going well and he’s going well, he may be a Top 100 chip at the trading deadline.

Adrianza is better than Denny Hocking and Matt Tolbert, yet he seems like more of an afterthought than they ever were.

Sano. Do you have a comment about Buxton?

Few other factors: 1. No other 2.0 WAR 1B is available for $5M. 2. No Moustakas/Frazier bargains for 3B, making it economical to move Sano to 1B, regardless of his skill at third. 3. The Twins don’t want to use the money elsewhere.

And if you want to go with OPS, last year 57 players age 25 and younger had at least 400 PAs. Sano had the 12th highest OPS, which is good, but not an omen of a superstar, especially when he really doesn’t add any other value. Further, his K rate in this group was second worst to Joey Gallo. This matters more than you may think, because in playoff baseball, hits are harder to come by. Good regular season stats matter less when every pitcher is good and they all have strikeout pitches. The ability to put the bat on the ball becomes of higher importance. Sano needs to fix his problems.

Mike, these stats may not be on the back of Sano’s baseball card, but they are what other teams are looking at. The inability to hit breaking pitches, control the strike zone and make adjustments as opponents make their book on you are common career limiters. These stats exemplify Sano’s problems in these areas.

Look at it from the other direction. Teams rarely sign four year deals with free agents because they want to lock them in. Instead, teams sign four year or longer deals because the players insist upon it. Those long deals are usually regretted at the end.

Last year, ten Twins had at least 400 PAs, including Buxton and his terrible first half. Of these ten, Sano was last or near last in the following hitting stats: strikeout rate, hitting sliders, hitting change-ups, hitting cutters, swinging strikes, contact at pitches in the zone (even though his swing rate at pitches in the zone was 0.2% below the most), contact at pitches out of the zone (even though he got the most pitches out of the zone). He was the best at hitting fastballs, but he saw the fewest. That trend will likely continue. Hopefully the negative stats will improve. His talent is not in doubt. His ability to work hard enough to maximize his talent is the question. This isn’t even a weight or fitness issue. It’s whether he can put in the work to become at least a league average hitter against sliders and change-ups and/or learn to lay off of them.

In addition to fitness and conduct concerns, Sano has strikeout and fielding issues. He needs to prioritize his fitness so he can maximize the opportunity to work on those. Sure, he’s got prodigious power, but so does Mark Reynolds. If Sano can’t work on his fitness when he’s injured, then it will be hard for him to work on his fielding and batting eye.

I don’t get the hate for the deals being short-term, especially in contrast to Darvish. The short-term nature is a feature, not a bug. 1. Some good starters in the system may graduate or return to health this year. 2. If Lynn, Odorizzi and Morrison, to pick three, are each 1.5 to 2.0 WAR, they will probably exceed Darvish, who probably has a ceiling this year of 4.0 WAR. 3.Darvish - and most of the veteran signees - is entering the decline phase of his career. If he’s 4.0 WAR this year, he’ll forecast to 3.5 WAR next year and keep declining at that rate. The Twins, however, will be able to sign a new batch next year and perhaps the year after that, and not have the risk of long-term declines. 4. Excellent starters will be available for prospects at the trade deadline, like every year, if needed. 5. It’s preferable not to be locked into long-term deals with relievers, unless they are All Star caliber. 6. The Twins needed to get a staff that should be competitive every day more than they needed to have an ace and some hope at #4 and #5. 7. After what Lance Lynn went through this winter, if he pitches well this year and enjoys himself, the Twins will probably have the inside track to sign him for 2029, if they want him back. 8. Lynn is probably going to give his best this year. In addition to feeling burned and like he has something to prove, i.e., the classic “nobody believes in us (me)” motivation, he’ll be in a contract year.