IndianaTwin

After reading the thoughts people are saying about going after Machado on a short-term deal, I started thinking the same about Kimbrel, and then I read this on mlb.com. https://www.mlb.com/news/best-free-agent-fits-for-craig-kimbrel/c-302893196. 5. TwinsThe Twins are gearing up to challenge the Indians in the AL Central in 2019. They clearly think their young core is ready to make the leap, and they've added a lot of power to their offense by grabbing Nelson Cruz, C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop. But after those acquisitions, the back end of their bullpen still looks like it needs a boost. They did sign Blake Parker, they have some other options like Addison Reed and Trevor May, and Taylor Rogers might be the best reliever you've never heard of. But those guys just aren't in Kimbrel's class. On the other hand, as a bridge to Kimbrel… that could a strong group. Minnesota might have to wait out the market, but the idea of adding an elite closer should be a tantalizing one, especially since the Twins' bullpen was a big question mark even during their surprise run to the playoffs two years ago.Given that with the way the market has gone, it seems clear that he's not going to get the 70/4 that MLBTR predicted. How much would it take to get him on a 1-year deal? If no contention, he'd certainly net a haul as well.

I like Norris, and you convinced me on Vincent. I'd also still take Greg Holland as well. His St. Louis stint killed my fantasy team last year, but he had no spring training. He was studly in Washington and has a track record. Most importantly -- great summary and discussion starter. But, Jamie, only 54 posts in four years? You need to do more than one per month!

I was high on Spooneybarger when he came up. Wouldn't it have been awesome if he was five years younger or Saltalamacchia was five years older?

We got six inches of snow so far. You? And can you believe those idiots on (name your channel of choice)?

I was going to ask if this thread should be retitled "...Part 1a (17-21)".

Thanks for the link to this interesting sto... Z-z-z-z-z.

(Quoting yours among several commenting on a 12-man staff...) Five days off in the first 15 days of the season. They don't have to use a 5th starter until the 15th game of the season. It sure would be nice if they would at least START the season with a 12-man staff. They managed to wait to game 16 to start Hughes last year, though that included snow and Puerto Rico. But that at least suggests they are willing to hold off on needing No. 5. I don't recall whether that meant carrying a four-man bench during that time.

Dear Santa Falvine: Do you read the New York Post? George A. King III reports that David Robertson is looking for a three-year contract. According to King, so far most interested teams have only been willing to offer a two-year pact. The 33-year-old hurler compiled a 3.23 ERA and 91/26 K/BB ratio across 69 2/3 innings with the Yankees during the 2018 campaign. The Red Sox and Phillies are known to have interest in his services. Source: New York Post Santa, I have been very, very good. Please be the team willing to go three years and give me a shiny reliever wrapped up with a spiffy bow. I promise I will be very good next year too and not send you any more of those Nigerian prince emails queued up in my Out box. -IT

Sign them both to 3-year deals if you think they can pitch well for that time (and I think they can). If they pitch well and the team stinks in either 2019 or 2020, it seems that makes them even MORE valuable as trade assets with 2.5 or 1.5 years of control. If they pitch well and some of the young guys pitch well enough so we can get along without them, same thing. And if they don’t pitch well, well, trade them to the Padres!

Rotation SP 1: Berrios SP 2: Pineda*** SP 3: Odorizzi for 5 IP, followed by Romero* SP 4: Gibson (He and Berrios are separated primarily to spread out the likelihood of a long start that preserves the bullpen. SP 5: Clay Buchholz/Mejia** *I don't think you enter the season assuming that Romero can give you an entire season as a starter, but neither do I assume that Mejia or Pineda do that either. In any case, if they can get through the rotation 10 or so times with Romero throwing 3-4 innings every five games, he can quickly be stretched back out to be a starter and moved into the rotation as needed. **As mentioned in another thread, I go after Clay Buchholz on an incentive-driven contract and use the Romero approach on Mejia. ***If Pineda gets hurt, slide Mejia into that spot and let Buchholz pitch as a "regular" starter. Bullpen RP 1: David Robertson (go 3/36 or more if it takes that) (Magill's probably my first cut) RP 2: Joakim Soria (go 2/24 if it takes that) (Slegers is probably next. Or maybe Duffey) RP 3: Addison Reed (see what I did there? Robertson, Soria, and Reed are laddered like a bunch of CDs. Hopefully they are worth more.) RP 4: Trevor May RP 5: Taylor Rogers RP 6: Andrew Vazquez RP 7: Whoever wins it in spring training, but Gabriel Moya is my first bet. My three signings require three DFAs, so people smarter than me can pick three from among the guys highlighted, probably two pitchers and a hitter. Am I going with 14 pitchers? No, but there's no way that 14 pitchers get through ST with no one going on the DL. And if they do, well, I guess Romero goes down to Rochester for a few (short) starts after all. And maybe Moya too, since there are five off-days in the first 15 days and there are three stacked pairs. By that time, someone is almost guaranteed to be hurt. Rochester rotation 1: Gonsalves 2: Stewart 3: Thorpe 4: Littell 5: Magill or Slegers if they survive the DFA. The assumption is that Gonsalves, Stewart and Thorpe will fight for the first "real" rotation opening after the seven guys named above. If it's a one-start deal, it could be one of the other three, unless one of them pitches himself in front of the other three. Rochester bullpen Everybody else, riding the shuttle and filling in DL spots as they deserve it.

I've said elsewhere that one of the things I've been impressed with in the new regime is that they don't box themselves into a corner with moves and seem to be prepared to cut bait pretty quickly if things don't seem to be working out. Occasionally they get burned by cutting bait too quickly (Anibal Sanchez would have been nice last year), but not usually. When Buchholz has been good, he has been really good. Like top-half of the rotation good at times. When he has been bad, he has been really bad. Like bottom-half of the AA rotation at times, though often that's been hand-in-hand with injuries. So I offer him a very modest salary that is very heavy on incentives for 100 and every multiple of 25 innings beyond that. DocBauer beat me in also wondering about enticing him to move to the bullpen, where similar incentive-driven formulas could be developed.

I didn't realize that Cruz had 360 HRs -- that's almost Bainesian! Cruz has 33.4 WAR and 360 HRs, with an .860 OPS. Baines had 38.7, 389, and .820, though with significantly more hits over a longer career. But does that mean that if Cruz has another solid year or two, folks could be pushing for the HOF? I know this belongs in another post, but that Baines selection keeps looking weaker and weaker to me.

Hmm... Nelson Cruz (through age 26) 145 games, 478 PA, .231/.282/.385, OPS+ 72, 119K, 30BB, no defensive value Tyler Austin (through age 26) 120 games, 404 PA, .232/.290/.469, OPS+ 100, 148K, 30BB, no defensive value Cruz spent most of his age 27 season in the minors, but came up in August and was great for 31 games on the way to becoming the ongoing monster that now has 360 career HRs. I'm not saying Austin is the second coming of Nelson Cruz, but those numbers put an interesting spin on the conversation for me.

Actually, baseball-reference.com says the number was 30. Second place was the Angels at 26, followed by the Tigers and Royals at 24. Once more, this time with feeling...

Hmmmmmm.... Cody Allen - R - Indians LaVelle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that the Twins are showing interest in free agent reliever Cody Allen. Allen posted a 4.70 ERA over 67 innings in his dreadful final season with the Indians, but he was one of the more reliable closers in baseball for several years before that. The 30-year-old right-hander could be a nice buy-low addition for a number of clubs this winter. He had a 2.59 ERA and struck out 457 batters in 344 2/3 innings between 2013-2017. Source: LaVelle E. Neal III on Twitter

Hmm.... Nelson Cruz - DH - Mariners Hector Gomez of Z Deportes reports that free agent slugger Nelson Cruz is choosing between the Twins and Rays. Cruz's agent Bryce Dixon has refuted this report, however, telling MLB.com's Jon Morosi that there are still additional teams in the running. The Astros and White Sox have also been mentioned as possible fits. Cruz registered an .850 OPS with 37 home runs and 97 RBI over 144 games this past season with the Mariners. He'll turn 39 years old next July. Source: Hector Gomez on Twitter

Thanks for that correction. I assumed that the 4.027 in baseball-reference.com was at the end of 2018, but in looking back, I see that it's from the beginning. And does being non-tendered toss the service-time calculation out the window? Does that mean that Cron is also not controllable? Either way, I still think they are good signings.

Random, but not necessarily deep, thoughts on an overcast Dec. 10... Two signings by Dec. 10 doesn't feel like "standing pat." The front office M.O. doesn't seem to focus on making massive moves. Its needle-moving seems to come in the form of nudging. Maybe it's because I'm paying more attention, but it seems like this front office is much more active than in the past. The cumulative effect of many needle-nudging moves can be significant. They also don't make moves that box themselves into a corner. Cron and Schoop are one-year signings, but they are controllable. With a good year in either/both cases, they are back in 2020. With a bad year, we are glad they weren't two-year signings. It's also only Dec. 10. Sins of omission we can't measure, but it seems they've made very few, if any, sins of commission that they couldn't/didn't move on from relatively quickly. And Darvish would be at least one move that we could call a sin of omission in not pursuing more aggressively, but it seems like a good choice in retrospect. I think of the Royals of a few years ago. I don't follow them closely, but it seems like they had a number of highly regarded guys who came up and seemed like disappointments when they didn't turn the team around immediately. But by staying with them, they were able to finally supplement at the right time and had a couple of really fun years. It would be kind of fun to have a nice, shiny Machado at SS. But if the choice is Machado, Austin, and three relievers from Rochester for a combined $35-$40 million vs. Schoop, Cron, Austin, David Robertson, Joakim Soria, and Zach Britton for a similar amount, I'll take the latter. It's only Dec. 10, remember. This morning, the Twins were listed among nine teams interested in J.A. Happ. Jon Heyman just listed the Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays, AND... your Minnesota Twins. Given his age, I think he'd be an awesome overpay signing at two years, plus an option. Will it happen? Who knows, but it's just Dec. 10. I'd rather overpay on him for two years than for five years on this year's Darvish.In other words, if March 28 brings me something like Castro & Garver; Cron & Austin; Schoop, Polanco, Sano, and Ehire; Rosario, Buxton, Garver and Cave; Berrios, Gibson, Happ*, Odo & Pineda (Romero/Mejia); May, Rogers, Reed, Robertson*, Soria*, Britton* (Romero/Mejia, rookies), I am very much on board. And I think it's still possible to get there. It's only Dec. 10, remember. Then, it will be easy enough to make follow-up decisions in June or July on whether to go the rest of the way in with a minor league system that's still pretty loaded and a budget that isn't overworked. If most of the guys HAVEN'T come through, we'll be glad we didn't go all-in. (*Placeholders -- insert your preferences, but these are some of mine.)

"Rhett Bolinger of MLB.com ran through some of the closer options for the Twins. Among the seven options he highlighted, I think Joakim Soria is the guy who aligns with the Twins in terms of need and expected contract. He’s 34, so it’s not like you’ll need to give him a long-term contract, but he does have 220 career saves. Last season he had a 3.12 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 11.1 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 (4.69 K:BB ratio) for the White Sox and Brewers. MLB Trade Rumors projected he’d get a two-year, $18 million deal." Soria at 2/$18MM and David Robertson for 3/$33MM would be awesome in my book.

I was also thinking of options like this and was coming up with something similar. There's gotta be a software out there that draws a circle around each defender showing the radius they can cover and that can be superimposed upon a hitter's spray chart. It would be fun to play with. Similarly, I wonder if it would make sense to play Hamilton and Buxton in left and right so they could cover foul line to alley and make CF small enough that a slower guy could cover it. Or with Rosario, he could play a very shallow to take away singles and allow the SS and 2B to split wider to shrink the 5.5 and 3.5 holes. (Of course, maybe it would make sense to have Buxton be the shallow guy so that he's farther away from any walls!)

Romero only got to 145 innings last year. I think a plan that targets more than 165 or so is unlikely to come to fruition. If he’s in the rotation for 32 starts, that’s only 5 innings per start, which is less than ideal. In an earlier post, I suggested using him as the designated reliever for Odorizzi’s first 10 or so starts, with the intention of him finishing the game. Assuming he’s been effective, then slide him into the rotation at the next appropriate time (the next injury or suckage on the part of one of the starters). It may take a couple of starts to restretch him out from 3-4 innings to being a full-time starter, since he was probably throwing about 60 pitches or so, but that’s not insurmountable. Maybe a time or two in those first 10 games, you pull Odo after 4 innings to keep Romero stretched out a bit. That’s probably about 35 innings in relief, leaving about 130 innings for the remaining 22 times through the rotation, which is close to 6 innings per start, closer to what we’re looking for. It also holds out the opportunity of him still being available in a playoff run. If he’s in the rotation from the beginning, I don’t think it’s realistic to have much left in October if we get there. Berrios, Odo, Pineda, Gibson, Mejia, by the way. I’ve separated Berrios and Gibson since they are the most likely to go deep enough to give the bullpen a break. I’d be glad to upgrade from Mejia. I’d also be okay with targeting this group as the rotation for the first 50 games or so, which gives enough time to see whether it’s worth going after a rental. And while I’m at it, I’ll take David Robertson (3/$33M) as my highest priority and one more from among Familia, Britton, and Ottovino (same), plus a flier on Soria (1/$10 + option 1/$8M). Offensively, success largely rises and falls on Buxton and Sano, so my primary focus is on 2B with Cron in the hopper.

25 and almost 23. Essential to keep reading this one to them. Then when they complain about their day as a nine-year-old, you can say, "Let's just move to Australia."

mikelink45, on 26 Nov 2018 - 6:35 PM, said: How can I comment intelligently... Still new here, huh?

“Cron Bomb” when he jacks one in the second inning. “Cron Dong” when he pops another in the fourth. Repeat as necessary.

I was hoping someone else has kids. Or is married to an elementary school teacher.