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Welcome to Twinternationals! This is a space for Twins fans from different countries to read about their team in their native language. This section is run by Venezuelan Mariana Guzmán (@TwinsLatinos) and Brazilian Thiéres Rabelo (@TwinsBrasil).
Por Mariana Guzmán
Mi inquietud por el tema de la educación y el béisbol surgió hace unas semanas, después de ver en las redes sociales una publicación en donde un grupo de Twins Latinos celebraban su graduación de la escuela secundaria.
Hace unos días tuve el placer de conversar con Pierre Jacotin, quien es el encargado del programa de educación de los Minnesota Twins en la República Dominicana.
Pierre es oriundo de Haití, graduado en ingeniería electrónica, vive en República Dominicana desde los 21 años. En Quisqueya, él ha tenido la oportunidad de desarrollar una carrera en el ámbito educativo.
Tras su paso por el Departamento de Educación Superior de República Dominicana, donde trabajó por 11 años en el programa de idiomas, se unió a los Twins en el 2018 como asesor educativo.
La labor de Pierre y de los Twins comienza tan pronto los jugadores firman con la organización. El primer paso es investigar los antecedentes académicos del jugador, luego viene un proceso de nivelación académica y finalmente el jugador accede al programa para comenzar su proceso de aprendizaje.
“Nosotros trabajamos principalmente con tres programas. Para la educación tenemos una plataforma que les da a los chicos un título del estado de la Florida (EE. UU), la plataforma se llama DEWERE. Es un programa que era originalmente de Venezuela, pero ellos se ampliaron a Colombia y el año antepasado fueron aceptados por el estado de Florida”.
Otro de los aliados académicos es ENTRENA DR, “ellos usan una metodología que se llama Quantum Learning, que es prácticamente el uso de los movimientos físicos, la música y el entretenimiento en sus capacitaciones”.
En DSL, “los chicos ven clases los cinco días de la semana, a partir de las 4 p.m. Tres días se los dedican a materias básicas de secundaria y los otros dos días son destinados para las clases de inglés”.
Aunque el programa de educación es obligatorio y en línea, también es bastante flexible, ya que los jugadores deben cumplir con la difícil agenda de la temporada de beisbol. Además, los chicos tienen instructores que los ayudan y asesoran a través de todo el proceso.
 Los Twins, no escatiman esfuerzos, por lo que también les ofrecen a los jugadores el programa Berlitz, para el aprendizaje del inglés. En la actualidad solo los chicos en DSL reciben clases a través de dicha plataforma.
Es importante destacar que, aunque muchos comienzan su camino educativo en DSL, el proceso es continuo y si un jugador es enviado a los Estados Unidos, tiene la oportunidad de seguir con sus estudios. Una vez en suelo estadounidense, Linda Merlo, es la encargada de ayudar a los muchachos, ella es la supervisora del Departamento de Lenguaje y Cultura de los Twins en Fort Myers.
El enfoque en la educación va más allá de un currículo educativo, “hay un sin número de necesidades que los chicos tienen, ya que muchos de ellos dedicaron su infancia a perseguir el sueño (del béisbol). Muchas veces los ayudamos en cosas básicas como la educación de casa y la convivencia”.
Así mismo, Major League Baseball y los Twins imparten clases y orientaciones de manera conjunta, sobre temas como el abuso y acoso sexual, seguridad vial, y normas de tránsito, entre otros.
Con un calendario tan apretado, la organización sabe que es importante mantener a los jugadores motivados, por eso mensualmente tratan de recompensar el esfuerzo y la dedicación de los estudiantes-jugadores, con incentivos como visitas al centro comercial, a la playa o a algún centro de entretenimiento.
Este proyecto de educación ha traído grandes beneficios para los Twins Latinos, ya que desde el 2018, todos los jugadores inscritos en este plan educativo han finalizado de manera exitosa sus estudios.
Queremos agradecerle a Pierre Jacotin por regalarnos un poquito de su valioso tiempo. Fue increíblemente satisfactorio poder indagar un poco sobre este tema y ver como el talento de los jugadores va mucho más allá del terreno de juego.
Curiosidades:
Jhoan Durán aprobó su examen de bachiller, el mismo día que fue incluido en el Roster de 40 de los Twins. Osiris Germán completó su bachillerato este año y lo celebró cantando y regalándoles a sus compañeros un poco de su talento en el “free-style”, con una improvisación de lujo. Los graduados del 2021: Carlos Suniaga, Carlos Aguiar, Luis Blanco, Miguelangel Boadas, Rubel Céspedes, Rhodery Díaz, Gregory Durán, Osiris Germán, Alexander Peña, Enmanuel Rodríguez, José Rosario, Malfrin Sosa, Carlos Velásquez y Oscar Paredes. ¡Felicidades, muchachos! Fotos cortesía de Carlos Aguiar
         
 
 

The day is January 26th, 2021. The Minnesota Twins had been rumored to be interested in various middle infield free agent options, but Marcus Semien was their top target, according to Darren Wolfson. The fit made some amount of sense, as the right-handed Semien would provide some pop against lefties and defensive flexibility across the infield. 
Semien did not sign with the Twins on January 26th. He accepted a one-year contract worth $18M to join the upstart Toronto Blue Jays, as their primary second baseman. The Twins quickly pivoted, signing Andrelton Simmons to a one-year $10.5M contract a few hours later as their fallback option. 
Fast forward, and today is May 27th, 2021. It's been over four months since the Twins made that pivot from Semiens to Simmons, over a difference of $7.5M. A lot has changed in that span, as the Twins quickly went from division favorites, to 8.5 games back from first place.
With 30% of the season in the books, I think it's fair to look back and evaluate if the Twins made the right decision by not outbidding Toronto for Semien's services and shifting to Simmons. 
Before we dive in, it is important to call out that comparing Simmons and Semien across their career has been a bit like apples and oranges .The two players are both indeed starting middle infielders, but Simmons has been one of the most elite defensive shortstops in a generation, while Semien was a Top-3 MVP finalist due to his offensive performance. Semien has also been playing primarily at second base this year, but has started roughly 9% of his games at shortstop. 
With that out of the way, let's see how Semien and Simmons have fared so far in 2021 across overall, offensive, and defensive categories: 
 
  Overall Offensive Defensive   Games Played PA fWAR bWAR AVG OBP SLG HR OPS+ wRC+ Hard Hit % Barrel % WPA DRS Outs Above Average Runs Prevented Fielding % Marcus Semien 47 212 2.2 2.4 .286 .349 .536 12 143 143 44.9% 8.1% 0.6 3 3 2 .988 Andrelton Simmons 37 138 0.2 0.7 .238 .326 .320 2 92 87 27.3% 1.0% -0.6 2 8 6 .966  
In one way, the overall result is what you expect. Semien is a better offensive player, and Simmons takes the edge defensively, especially when accounting for time spent at shortstop.
But Semien isn't just outpacing Simmons offensively -- he's among the league leaders in offensive production. Semien not only has a higher slugging percentage and weight runs created plus (wRC+) than his 2019 season where he was a MVP finalist, but he currently leads all qualified MLB second baseman in those two categories. Toronto took a chance Semien would look more like his 2019 self, than his 2020 version. They have been right so far. The move to second base has also worked to this point, where multiple defensive metrics point toward positive contributions. All together, his 2.2 fWAR ranks 7th among all MLB hitters, 
On the other hand, Simmons has always been known as a player who gives the team value through his glove. His offensive skillset usually ends up slightly below average across his career, and he's been just that in 2021 (both his OPS+ and wRC+ are below 100, which is the league average). Simmons won't strike out that often, but he won't provide any power at all. Both his Hard Hit % and Barrel % are below the 5th percentile of all MLB players. Weak contact can be dangerous.
The Twins have definitely received value from Simmons and his magic glove. Simmons ranks second in MLB with 8 Outs Above Average, according to Statcast, which has saved the Twins 6 runs over the course of the season. FanGraphs is not as glowing as Statcast, as Simmons ranks 11th among MLB shortstops in Defensive Runs Saved.
The eye test will tell you Simmons has been amazing, but we can all point to a few plays this year where a mental lapse has resulted in a key dropped ball, or a double play that wasn't turned. That lack of clutch ability has also shown up in his -0.6 Win Probability Added (WPA), where as Semien has the reverse positive WPA of 0.6. 
Overall, I do think the Twins have received a positive contribution from Andrelton Simmons. He's performed in the baseline of his career, with his elite defense outweighing his offensive downfalls. But when you compare the two contracts, it's hard to justify that signing Simmons to one-year and $10.5M has been more valuable than Marcus Semien at one-year and $18M. FanGraphs claims Semien has already provided $17.7M worth of value for Toronto, while Simmons has provided $1.5M worth of value for the Twins. 
There were probably other factors that led Semien to Toronto, rather than Minnesota. It's not 100% up to the team in free agency, it is a dance that involves many other factors for the player aside from the dollar amount. But if the decision for a middle infield acquisition came down to a $7.5M difference between the front office's top target and their fallback option, it's clear Falvey and Levine should have ponied up a bit more. The Twins are missing out on a early dark horse for the 2021 MVP candidate. 
 
 
 
 
 

Welcome to Twinternationals! This is a space for Twins fans from different countries to read about their team in their native language. This section is run by Venezuelan Mariana Guzmán (@TwinsLatinos) and Brazilian Thiéres Rabelo (@TwinsBrasil).
 
Por Mariana Guzmán
 
¡Venezolana y fanática de los Twins!
 
Sí, esa es parte de mi historia. Nací y crecí en Venezuela y aunque cuando era una niña no tenia mucha noción del béisbol de Grandes Ligas, siempre supe que el béisbol era el amor de mi vida.
 
En mi país el béisbol es un estilo de vida pero muy pocas veces los Twins eran un tema de conversación. Los Yankees de Nueva York, Medias Blancas de Chicago, Medias Rojas de Boston, Rockies de Colorado e Indios de Cleveland fueron, quizás, los equipos mas populares durante mi niñez en Venezuela.
 
 
 

Todo comenzó en el 2003


 
La primera vez que escuche hablar de los Minnesota Twins fue en el 2003, cuando un joven venezolano de 23 años se perfilaba como una futura súper estrella del equipo de las Ciudades Gemelas. Para esa época, yo vivía enamorada de nuestro béisbol invernal y por mi cabeza pasaban los nombres de varios equipos de Grandes Ligas pero jamás el de los Twins, no hasta que Johan comenzó a brillar con ellos.
 
Transcurría la temporada 2003 y los diferentes medios de comunicación de mi país tenían muy presente a Johan, quien ese año fungía como relevista y en algunas ocasiones como abridor. Esa temporada, la tercera de Johan con los Twins, concluyó con record de ocho victorias y seis derrotas, y el buen sabor de boca de dejar una buena impresión con el equipo que le abrió las puertas vía Draft de Regla 5.
 
La temporada 2004 comenzaba y yo por primera vez escuchaba hablar de los Entrenamientos Primaverales, inmediatamente comprendí cuan importante era para Johan hacer un buen papel durante ese tiempo en Florida. Con la conclusión de los Campos Primaverales llegaba la noticia de que el nativo de Tovar, al Oeste de Venezuela, se convertiría en uno de los abridores de la rotación de Ron Gardenhire; y comenzaría así su transición de relevista a abridor. La emoción con esta noticia se regó como pólvora por toda Venezuela, el muchachito que sorprendió a muchos en el 2003, se convertiría en abridor de un equipo que podía claramente pelear por un puesto a la postemporada.
 
Con Johan como abridor, los dos canales de la televisión local que transmitían juegos de MLB una o dos veces por semana, hacían todo lo posible por siempre transmitir las aperturas del venezolano, y eso era para mi un alivio y disfrute. Sin embargo, mientras mas crecía mi amor por Johan y los Twins, más era la necesidad por conseguir información sobre el equipo, información en español; es ahí donde comenzaba mi sufrimiento. Si bien es cierto que Johan fue el detonante de mi fanatismo por Minnesota, también era cierto que en esos años también había un grupo de venezolanos y latinos sobresaliendo con los Twins; y eso, por supuesto, reforzó mi amor por este equipo. Y como es obvio, yo quería saber más sobre el grupo de jugadores y más sobre la historia del equipo que se estaba robado mi corazón.
 
Los venezolanos, Juan Rincón, Henry Blanco, Carlos Silva, Luis Rivas y Luis Rodríguez también eran parte de nuestro roster, a ellos se sumaban los talentosos Eddie Guardado, Christian Guzmán, JC Romero, por solo mencionar a algunos de los talentos latinos que vistieron la camiseta de los Twins entre el 2003-2005.
 
Ese año 2004 comencé a vivirme el béisbol de MLB con mucha pasión, solo hablaba de los Twins y de las maravillas que hacia Johan. Ese año, los Twins me “regalaron” un pase a la postemporada, nada mas y nada menos que ante los Yankees de Nueva York. Pasé el 2004 pegada a la TV, fue la primera vez en mi vida que no esperaba con tantas ansias el béisbol invernal.
 
Por primera vez en mi vida sentía la emoción y presión del béisbol de octubre. Con la clasificación de los Twins llegó la Serie Divisional ante los Yankees. Vivir esa serie estando en Venezuela, era básicamente vivirla sola, muy pocos ligaban a los muchachos de Gardenhire. Era yo contra el mundo; y sí, suena dramático pero así lo sentí en su momento.
 
El sueño de mi primer “October Baseball” se esfumó rápidamente. La única victoria que Minnesota conquisto en esa serie ante Nueva York lo hizo con Johan en la lomita en el primer juego. Santana lanzó siete solidas entradas en blanco, Juan Rincón y Joe Nathan se encargaron de preservar el triunfo. Una carrera impulsada por Jacques Jones en el tercer tramo y un jonrón solitario de Shannon Stewart, dieron el aporte ofensivo que necesitó Johan para ganar su primer y único juego en octubre. Pero aunque Minnesota sucumbió ante los Yankees, lo mejor para Johan estaba esperando por él durante el off-season del 2004.
 

11 de Noviembre de 2004



La fecha que le regalo una nueva hazaña al béisbol venezolano


 
Jamás voy a olvidar la tarde del jueves, 11 de noviembre de 2004. Había salido del colegio y me fui a un Cybercafe a esperar los resultados del Cy Young 2004. No se cuantas horas pasé sentada frente a la computadora esa tarde, no se cuantas llamadas recibí de mi mama pidiéndome que me fuera a casa. Era como que todo en mi se había paralizado y solo esperaba que las Grandes Ligas emitieran el resultado. Caía la tarde en Venezuela y con ella llegaba la noticia, “Johan Santana es el ganador unánime del Premio Cy Young 2004”.
 
 
El 2004 catapultó a Johan como una figura histórica del béisbol venezolano y me catapultó a mi como fanática de los Twins. Una histórica actuación de Johan ese año (record de 20-6 y 2.61 de EFE), lo hizo merecedor del Premio Cy Young al Mejor Lanzador de la Liga Americana, convirtiéndose así en el primer venezolano en recibir dicho galardón y en apenas el séptimo lanzador en ganar el premio de manera unánime.
 
Todos en Venezuela estábamos seguros de que Johan ganaría; pero cuando la noticia ya era oficial, la explosión de emociones se disparo por todo el país. Mientras la nación celebraba la histórica hazaña, yo, aún perpleja, lloraba de emoción y felicidad. Me tomo unos minutos calmarme y salir de ahí a celebrar como todos lo estaban haciendo. Esa tarde se escucharon las cornetas de los autos como medio de celebración, desde esa noche y por muchos otros días, nadie paraba de hablar de Johan Santana.
 
Ese día recibí llamadas y mensajes de texto de mis amigos, todos sabían cuanto admiraba a Johan y a los Twins, ese día hasta el menos experto en béisbol se enteró de la proeza del zurdo. Y con el reconocimiento individual de Santana, también, de alguna manera u otra, los Minnesota Twins comenzaban a ganar un poco de fama, ya no eran un equipo “fantasma” y eso me hacia muy feliz…
 
En una próxima entrega continuaré contándoles como se siguió alimentando mi amor por este equipo y como nació Twins Latinos. Y por supuesto, que además de mi historia, en este espacio también nos dedicaremos a realizar entrevistas y a contar la historia de cómo los Twins Latinos han conquistado el Territorio Twins.

With the announcement that Nelson Cruz suffered a wrist injury yesterday, my immediate thought was who would replace him in the lineup and on the roster if he had to go on the injured list. It would appear to me that the answer is the much-discussed Miguel Sanó, who is on his third and last stop in his rehab program.
 
Much has been written about Sanó. I wish to confine this discussion to the ballplayer between the lines. The other stuff has been beaten to death IMHO. What will the Twins get when a healthy Sanó is on the active roster?
 
Sanó came up to the big leagues with much hype in 2015. He was going to be the power hitter the Twins hadn't had since Harmon Killebrew. Another comparison, because of size, was Frank Thomas. Sanó's rookie year was excellent. Despite being called up only at midseason, he was a contender for Rookie-of-the-Year. His traditional state line--.269 BA, 18 homers, 52 RBI was very good. Double the homers and RBIs for a full season, and there is a perennial All-Star, future Hall of Famer. Plus, he was only 22 years of age. A deeper look at his rookie stats was probably even more encouraging, while Miguel struck out over 100 times (in a half season), he also walked more than 50 times, giving him a solid OBP of .385. His OPS was a stellar .916 which yielded an OPS+ of 149. After a minor injury, Miguel only played 11 games in the field, so we couldn't be sure about his defense. For his superior half-season of work, Miguel Sanó was voted the Twins' Player of the Year.
 
2016 started with Sanó installed as the new right fielder. He was never competent or comfortable there and it seemed to affect his hitting. After a month and a half of futility in right field, Miguel moved back to third to demonstrate a rocket arm, but less-than-soft hands. His metrics at third came in below average, but at least he could hit. Well, the hitting didn't go as well either. Sanó ended up playing in 116 game, having an OPS of .781 with 19 homers and 51 RBI as the Twins flailed and failed and lost over 100 games. Sanó missed over 30 games due to injuries. Again, a deeper look into Sanó's numbers is a mixed bag. In 160 additional plate appearances, Sanó only hit one more homer than 2015, his walk rate plummeted while his strikeout rate stayed basically steady. The batting average ended at .236 and his OBP fell to.319.
 
Sanó was a deserved All-Star in 2017. He came to camp as the third baseman, healthy and came out of the gate on fire. His first-half stats were outstanding--.276, 21 homers, 62 RBI and his defense at third was satisfactory. The strikeout rate remained about the same (35%), but he also walked 44 times, a big improvement over 2016 and the OBP was .368 at the break.
 
Since the 2017 All-Star break, Miguel Sanó hasn't been very good. The combined numbers from the second half of '17 and 2018 are .211 BA, 20 homers, 56 RBI. OBP at .292, slugging .408, with an OPS of .700. The walk rate is below 10% and the strikeout rate is 38%. These are not future Hall-of-Fame numbers. They aren't even starter numbers. In addition, according to metrics (and my eyes) Sanó remains a below-average third baseman, despite a plus-plus arm.
 
To summarize this rather elongated prologue, Sanó's on-field performance has been a roller coaster. He started looking like one of the brightest stars, faded, came back to that level again and faded again. Does this up-and-down have to do with injuries? Certainly. The point here is to suggest that the Twins shouldn't be counting on Sanófor too much. Expectations of another Frank Thomas or Miguel Cabrera should be tempered by now. I think they should expect more than they gotten since the All-Star break of 2017. They should get more than Mark Reynolds-like production. If the strikeouts keep coming and the homers are too infrequent, he can still be optioned. This club looks like at least a contender for postseason. If that is the case, they shouldn't be playing guys based on potential or upside.
 
Miguel Sanó is at a crossroads in his career (in my opinion). He soon will have a chance to step on stage with a good team and help them make postseason, and maybe have success there. He's now 26 and shouldn't be judged on what he might do, he should be judged by how he is actually performing on the field.As a Twins fan and a baseball fan, I hope he can find his earlier success. As someone who has seen a lot of hyped players come and go, I am a bit skeptical.

Happy Holidays to everyone and welcome to my first Blog Entry here on Twins Daily. I am new to the writing/blogging scene (probably several years behind the curve) but I am not new to either baseball and the Minnesota Twins.
 
My background in baseball includes a playing career in both High School and College along with coaching in the collegiate ranks here in the Midwest. I currently expand my baseball background my reading about Owners, Sportswriters, Broadcasters, Managers and Individual Players that all contribute to the great game of baseball. I do it old school too - Hard Cover Books - none of this lightweight Kindle reading. I am also a current member of the American Baseball Coaches Association (ABCA) and will be attending this year's convention in Indianapolis, IN next week.
 
For my first entry, I kicked around the idea of a Minnesota Twins/Moneyball approach. It derives from my constant perusing around the Twins Daily comments section and seeing that fans (the majority of which) are unhappy with the current off-season direction we have gone. Coming off a playoff appearance, fans believed we were only a few pieces away from contending deep into the postseason. A strong off season and free agency were going to put us over the top. Unfortunately, the Twins haven't made a 'flashy' signing yet and lots of people have called the off season an utter disappointment.
 
I would like to try and bring people back down to realty in what the Twins are currently doing. I am not an insider to the Twins organization and can only speculate to the "Strategy".
 
I will say that I am a fan of the Duke, Pineda and Rodney signings so far. They aren't big and flashy, but they serve a purpose. Pineda - coming back from injury, once a highly touted pitching prospect that has flashed great promise is a great buy low signing. Rodney - has age against him but has proven to be a solid back of the bullpen arm and it's only on a one year deal. Duke - wasn't exactly the greatest when he came back from Tommy John surgery last season but again he is another buy low signing. With Duke, at the least, he is a stop gap till mid-season when Tyler Jay should hopefully be ready to join the Major League club.
 
These 3 signings are what Twins fans need to realize will continue to be the norm, it does not matter who the General Manager or Director of Baseball Operations is. All the wishing for us to sign Ohtani from Japan, was a pipe dream and was basically never going to happen. I've heard constant chatter about wanting the Twins to sign a big FA Power Relief Pitcher, that isn't going to happen either - plus it's not a financially sound decision to commit multiple years and big dollars to a relief pitcher...unless his name is Rivera or Hoffman. The Twins best chance to improve the Major League Club with Major League Talent is via a Trade. I was a big fan of going after Gerritt Cole, I thought we wouldn't have to give up as much in comparison to what a trade for Chris Archer would fetch. I'm still on the record for believing a trade will happen this off-season - just don't know when and for whom. I'm with the majority that believes it needs to be a Front Line Starter with multiple years of team control.
 
Fans tend to forget that the Minnesota Twins are in the bottom 3rd of Major League payrolls and we really have never deviated from that. Even if we were to commit an additional 30 million in payroll, we would still be in the bottom half of all Major League Baseball. Would that extra cash help us FINALLY beat the Yankees (in the playoffs) and their 200 Million Dollar payroll??? (Hard to say it would).
 
It is advantageous for the Twins to continue to find value in players that other teams don't see. We do not have the luxury (Time and/or Money) to throw at any and all Free Agents like the Yankees/Dodgers do. We've seen what other clubs have done, the Miami Marlins, seemingly finally putting down some money on players and then not seeing a return on their investment via wins or attendance. They preferred to then scrap the team and go back to their bare bones approach. Who is to say their approach is wrong...the Marlins have won 2 World Series since the last Twins World Series Victory.
 
In all of my rambling and banter - I believe the Twins, for 2018, have signed some bounce back players in preparation for the 2019 season. 2018 will be an additional year of development for the young core of Twins players. Cleveland will be the team to beat in the AL Central with the Wild Card being no gimme. From a Wins and Loss standpoint, I believe 2018 will be either a standstill or step backwards and most Twins fans will find that unacceptable coming off a playoff year.

Fans will get to see if the Minnesota Twins truly can hang over their next nine games. Starting Thursday, the Twins will see starting pitchers Jose Quintana (8.7 K/9, 2.47 K/B), Trevor Bauer (7 IP, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K in last start against Twins), Corey Kluber (11 K/9, 4.71 K/BB), Josh Tomlin (9.33 K/BB), Chris Sale (12.2 K/9), Drew Pomeranz (10.4 K/9), Rick Porcello (4.72 K/BB), David Price (BOS 3-1 in his four June starts) and Jason Vargas (200 ERA+). All those games are on the road.
 
This was originally published at FoulPlaybyPlay.com, a community of foul-mouthed, sports broadcasters providing commercial-free, uncensored play-by-play during select games.
 
The premiere games will be when Jose Berrios takes on Chris Sale in Boston on Monday, and when veterans Ervin Santana and Jason Vargas do battle in Kansas City next Friday. The Twins have to be underdogs in just about all nine of those games, though.
 
The Twins better hope they get some pitching reinforcements. Right now the Twins are running Nik Turley out there, but they just signed Dillon Gee, so expect him to get a start over that nine-game stretch.
 
Hector Santiago is getting a rehab start on Wednesday for the Rochester Red Wings, and if all goes well, he could pitch as early as Tuesday against Pomeranz. That could end up being a big game for the Twins and Santiago, who has fallen and can’t get up.
 
The bullpen could also use reinforcements, and Alan Busenitz doesn’t seem to be the answer. Phil Hughes could also pitch out of the bullpen for Rochester on Wednesday. Expect Hughes to take longer to get back to MLB ready, but he’d be a welcomed addition to the worst bullpen in baseball. If Hughes can even get through a lineup once, he would leave fewer innings for guys like Matt Belisle (5.1 BB/9) and Craig Breslow (5 SO/9). Hughes will likely be forced back up during that brutal nine-game stretch for the Twins whether he’s pitching well at AAA or not.
 
This is the stretch of games that will turn contenders into sellers. Consider if the Twins go 2-7 over that nine-game stretch. They’d be two games under .500 at best, and with Cleveland’s offense finally taking off (and three more games coming against them) the Twins could be looking up from farther down in the AL Central than the 1.5 games they are entering Wednesday.
 
The Twins will have 10 more games after the nine-game stretch against playoff-caliber starting pitching to avoid becoming sellers at the deadline. Regardless, you can bet new chief of baseball operations Derek Falvey will be active over his first Trade Deadline. It won’t take much for him to be as active as Terry Ryan ever was.
 
So who do the Twins move? Santana’s value has plummeted lately, and given the Twins don’t have enough MLB-caliber pitchers to start every fifth day, it’s a safe bet anyone capable of eating innings will be sticking around.
 
Brian Dozier’s value has dried up a bit, too, which isn’t all bad. He’s still signed through 2018, and at a very reasonable rate next season ($6 million). This offseason or the deadline next season would be a good time to shop him, depending how Nick Gordon performs if he gets a cup of coffee when rosters expand this season. Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press said it’s a possibility. Gordon would likely push Jorge Polanco to second base.
The most valuable players on the team aren’t going anywhere. Zach Granite can bang on the door all he wants, but Byron Buxton is going nowhere. Neither is Max Kepler, and I doubt Eddie Rosario would be moved given he’s not even arbitration eligible until 2019.
 
Robbie Grossman is one of the most valuable trade chips the Twins have, and I expect him to be shopped. He’s not an everyday outfielder, but man, can he hit. I think Falvey really likes Grossman. But what’s not to like? His OPS+ is 112, and he’s absolutely wrecking right-handed pitching (6 HR, .435 SLG, .801 OPS). He’s not bad against lefties either (.441 OBP, .741 OPS). He still has the highest on-base percentage amongst designated hitters at .389 and should be an All-star. He has a higher OPS than Hanley Ramirez, Victor Martinez, Mark Trumbo, Albert Pujols and Carlos Beltran. Grossman will be arbitration eligible next year and would be a fantastic addition as a designated hitter for a playoff team, but I can’t expect any of the teams of the players mentioned to make a move for the position.
 
That leaves Eduardo Escobar, who is on fire to say the least. He has hits in seven straight games and is 22-for-45 in June. His .838 OPS is fourth amongst shortstops, and his OPS+ is a team- and career-high 121. While he’s a below-average defensive shortstop, there are plenty of playoff-bound teams who would love to have a utility bat with a 1.066 OPS against lefties. And the Twins don’t need to be “out of it” in the Central to move Escobar. He’s arbitration eligible for the final time next year and will make considerably more than the $2.6 million he’s being paid this season. He’ll also be a free agent after next season.
 
Escobar can play just about everywhere, which makes me think the Chicago Cubs would be a perfect fit. Escobar could give Addison Russell a breather against lefties (Russell is hitting .219/.349/.346 against them this season), and play the outfield for Kyle Schwarber against lefties (Schwarber has a .567 OPS against lefties this year).
 
What should the Twins ask in return? Well, lefty starter Jen-Ho Tseng with the Tennessee Smokies (AA) is intriguing. He’s just 22, and his K:BB ratio is 3.1 and he’s striking out 7.7 per nine innings. Future relievers could include righty Pedro Araujo, 23, who has a K:BB ratio of 7.0 through 31.2 innings with the Myrtle Beach Pelicans of Advanced-A ball. His teammate and fellow righty Craig Brooks, 24, is actually striking out more batters than Araujo (13.3 K/9 over 20.1 IP).
 
If Falvey and the Twins want to take advantage of Escobar’s hot bat, now’s the time, especially with Gordon knocking on the door in AA. While Jorge Polanco has struggled in June, he is in the Twins' long-term plans. Nick Gordon is also in the Twins' long-term plans, and Escobar is not. That's why it won't matter where the Twins are in the standings come the Trade Deadline. Players will be shed to give playing time to youngsters. Escobar is the most obvious trade chip.

Let me preface with the reality that fandom comes in different shapes and sizes. I realize there are those that are more casual observers, and there are diehards. There are those who watch the game, and then there are those that know the game. Simply defining someone watching Minnesota Twins baseball as a fan doesn't do the categorization justice. When it comes to the 2017 home nine though, there seems to be a growing and unfortunate confusion.
 
Arguably the most frustrating notion is that this team is destined to be bad because, well, they lost 103 games last season. That's absolutely a fact regarding the loss total, outside of that, the statement couldn't be less confusing. Given the Twins emerged from nowhere in 2015 and won 83 games finishing 2nd in the AL Central, how can that be immediately dismissed?
 
In 2016, Paul Molitor had virtually the same starting infield as he did the year prior (save for Eduardo Escobar replacing Danny Santana at shortstop). He had a new outfield that consisted of Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, and Eddie Rosario as opposed to the 2015 contingent of Oswaldo Arcia, Jordan Schafer, and Torii Hunter. Picking up the extra at bats as the designated hitter was Byungho Park instead of the replaced Kennys Vargas from 2015. As a whole, the Opening Day lineup remained a virtual clone.
 
On the mound, Tyler Duffey replaced Mike Pelfrey in the big league rotation. The bullpen was thrown together with relatively similar pieces, and Molitor had a couple of new coaches at his disposal. What held true though was that nothing was truly groundbreaking.
 
Here's the thing though, in 2015 the Twins overachieved significantly. Virtually all metrics suggested regression was coming, and the fact of the matter was there were too many placeholders to simply fill all of the holes. If 2015 gave you as a fan hope for 2016, you were likely as misguided as suggesting 2016 is a precursor for the season to come.
 
So Jose Berrios, Byron Buxton, and Miguel Sano are prospects you've heard about forever and haven't produced to the level you perceived? Is it incredibly surprising that a 22 year-old and two 23 year-old's are taking a bit longer to adjust at the big league level? Of course it isn't. Sano already has 40 career homers under his belt, Berrios has made a handful of starts, and Buxton is already playing Gold Glove caliber defense. At 23 years old, Kirby Puckett was at Single-A and Johan Santana was a reliever with a career 5.90 ERA.
 
Exposure has given us a heightened level of insight into young prospects. There's lists, articles, Twitter, and countless other sources of information for the game's next stars. You may hear about a player earlier, but that doesn't change the adjustment period, or the reality that knowledge beyond those sources is key to understanding how quickly a kid may take to a man's game.
 
Rounding out the trio of complaints is the one that encompasses both the overlooking of past results, and well as current roster construction. Why didn't Derek Falvey and Thad Levine come in and do more this offseason? The long and short of it is that they didn't have to. Both astute baseball minds, they realize this club is going to need to be carried by the likes of the Sano's and Buxton's. Signing a big bat, or a major arm, prior to the young guys being ready to shoulder more of the load, is a wasted year.
 
Going into the offseason, I suggested multiple times that standing pat would be a good place for the Twins. I was interested in Wilson Ramos pre-injury. Jason Castro emerged, and then made immediate sense. He helps to address pitching and defense, is a low cost signing, and can hit at least to the level Kurt Suzuki was capable of. Outside of that, a throw in reliever until some of the young arms made sense. Minnesota has really strong relief prospects, and blocking them with significant retread veterans never would have been a good idea.
 
Right now, the Twins executed everything as they needed to, and really, it's on you to see that. There's no one suggesting this club is making the playoffs, and even a .500 record would be a nice bonus. They aren't close to a 59 win team though, and the reasoning is relatively simple. The youth will continue to develop, and banking on those names you've heard forever to be stars is still a good bet. Finally, when it comes time to supplement with outside talent (and Minnesota is close to that point), then Falvey and Levine will be aware of the fact they are building, and not rebuilding.
 
Don't miss the boat, and don't throw out baseless frustration. Whether comment sections, casual discussion, Twitter, or some other place is your stomping ground, have a little foundation to stand upon when considering what is being brought to the table. Baseball is a sport that allows you to consume it in multiple different ways. Understanding that opinions are also a reflection of that is a must.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

This will be my first post and hopefully one of many. Most of my work will be from the sabermetrics/analytical angle as I spend too much time on sites like FanGraphs and Baseball Reference.
 
Today, February 15th, an article was posted on FanGraphs about WAR (wins above replacement) and relating it to the "stars and scrubs" model in forming a baseball team. The article written by Travis Sawchik (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/is-the-end-near-for-stars-and-scrubs) uses the White Sox as the example from the 2016 season with Chris Sale, Adam Eaton and Jose Quintana being the "stars". Stars, in the context of WAR. WAR is as simple as how many wins the team would have gained or lost if that player were to be replaced by a "replacement level player".
 
To put it in Twins terms, in 2016, Brian Dozier had a WAR of 5.9. So, if a replacement level player had replaced him, the Twins would have somehow managed to lose almost 6 more games. On the flip side, Eduardo Escobar had a WAR on -.6. In theory, if a "replacement level player" had replaced Eduardo, the Twins would have won .6 more games. The stat is calculated by position player (offense and defense) and pitchers. Each is formulated differently but in this case I am writing for just a total war. Make sense? I'll put the actual formula that FanGraphs uses to calculate WAR at the end of the post. Baseball reference explains the concept well here.
 
http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained.shtml
 
For reference, here is a list of total WAR produced by players from last season. No surprise that Mike Trout leads the list at 10.55.
 
http://www.espn.com/mlb/war/leaders/_/type/seasonal/year/2016
Travis writes that those three players had a WAR of 16 combined which is relatively high for three players. If you were counting on three players to come up with 16 wins, I would consider this to be a sort of "stars and scrubs model". The problem this creates is that those three players consisted of just over 50% of the teams total WAR. The chart below from FanGraphs shows the 6 division winners from last season.
 
Talent Distribution of 2016 Division Winners
 
Team --- Top Three WAR players -------- Total WAR ------ Top Three % of team WAR
Cubs = 18.3 = 59.1 = 30.9
Dodgers = 19.6 = 47.8 = 41.0
Nationals = 15.8 = 46.6 = 33.9
Red Sox = 18.2 = 52.5 = 34.6
Indians = 16.2 = 46.2 = 35.1
Rangers = 12.4 = 28.6 = 43.3
from FanGraphs
 
You see a more balanced attack from a WAR standpoint except for maybe the exception of the Rangers who have a lower WAR than most but we all remember what happened to them in the playoffs...
 
Now lets move our focus to the Twins. Would you be surprised if I told you the Twins had the Third worst pitching WAR in the league last season? I didn't think so. Fortunately, Dozier was able to bump up the total WAR. He lead the team at 5.9, the next 5 look like this,
 
Player WAR
Ervin Santana = 3.5
Byron Buxton = 1.7
Eduardo Nunez = 1.7
Rick Nolasco (its true) = 1.5
Miguel Sano =1.3
 
Many other players float around the 0 to 1 mark and 0 to -1. To put it in simple terms. Arguably, it wasn't a good all around season for anyone except for Dozier and Big Erv. Those were also the only two on the list who played a full season. Robbie Grossman would have made the list if he weren't such a liability defensively.
 
Looking forward, FanGraphs has the Twins predicted in a similar spot with pitching again being a problem. Given the market size in terms of salary and how little moves the Twins made its tough to predict a different season from a WAR standpoint unless the young guns like Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Berrios etc. really step up. I, like many others reading this are hopeful that is the case. Even though its been said for years, these players potential is unmatched. Oh no, its my homer side coming out again.
 
Relating it back to the article by Travis, to be successful, a team needs depth and the "stars and scrubs" isn't efficient in most cases. Not only did the Cubs have their top 3 players represent only 30% of the team WAR but had their total position players WAR and pitching WAR were both in the top 5 of the league. Dozier and Ervin Santana represented 45% of the Twins total team WAR.
 
The Twins are in a position where its at the least possible. Stay hopeful fellow Twins fans as we gear up for another season.
 
Thanks for reading and stay tuned for some other geeky stat or stats next time.
 
 
Here is some more information on the calculations of WAR from FanGraphs.
 
Calculation:
Calculating WAR, especially for position players, is simpler than you’d think. If you want the detailed version with the precise steps and formulas, head to our page on Position Player WAR or Pitcher WAR. The short answer, though, is as follows:
● Position players – To calculate WAR for position players you want to take their Batting Runs, Base Running Runs, and Fielding Runs above average and then add in a positional adjustment, a small adjustment for their league, and then add in replacement runs so that we are comparing their performance to replacement level rather than the average player. After that, you simply take that sum and divide it by the runs per win value of that season to find WAR. The simple equation looks something like this:
WAR = (Batting Runs + Base Running Runs +Fielding Runs + Positional Adjustment + League Adjustment +Replacement Runs) / (Runs Per Win)
● Pitchers – While position player WAR is based on Batting Runs and Fielding Runs, pitching WAR uses FIP (with infield fly balls), adjusted for park, and scaled to how many innings the pitcher threw. FIP is translated into runs, converted to represent value above replacement level, and is then converted from runs to wins. This is a slightly more complicated process than for position players and there will be a new post detailing exactly how we do this in the next week or so (stay tuned!)

Source: Park vs, Desmond- Another case of misdirected FA $$$

The first 81 games for the Minnesota Twins were dreadful. A mere 27 wins, the worst record in baseball, is the result of bad pitching, hitting and just really, really bad baseball.
 
Usually the mid-way point of a season gives us, the fans, a time to reflect and think of the positive things. Things we believe the team can build on moving forward.
 
Nope! Not this year!
 
The straw that broke this camel's back, for me, was when the Twins designated Kevin Jepsen for assignment. If you are having a tough time remember who this guy is, let me remind you.
 
The Twins, in need of some bullpen help last season, traded away two minor league players to the Tampa Bay Rays in order to get Jepsen.
 
He had a stellar two months with the organization. He appeared in 29 games giving up just one home run, striking out 25 while walking just seven and giving up just five earned runs over 28 innings.
 
Now, he's no longer on the team. And that's not even the worst part of the Jepsen story.
 
It's a mess, for sure, and one that I would like to reflect on by handing out some awards. Not your high school make-everyone-feel-good-participation awards. No, these awards are a bit different.
 
Biggest Disappointment
Oh man. You want to talk about tough. So many people to consider for this award, Jepsen and Joe Mauer included. In the end, however, I have to give it to Eddie Rosario.
 
I believed that he was going to improve after a solid first-season in 2015. Sure, he is a free swinger that thinks taking a pitch is some sort of illness. Sure, he was pegged for regression knowing that he has no idea what a strike-zone is. Still, I believed.
 
That is why his .200 batting average through the first 32 games of the season, along with 31 strike-outs and just three walks, were so sad. Not disappointing. No. Sad.
 
After a stint in the minors, where he hit .319 over 41 games with 21 extra-base hits, he's back in the majors.
 
Rosario will have his work cut out for him with Robbie Grossman and Max Kepler both playing well. If the strike-outs continue, he may find himself the way of Oswaldo Arcia.
 
I guess this will teach me to pin my hopes on a dude who is a free-swinger.
 
Most Similar to Tsuyoshi Nishioka
Is this fair? I mean, we all know who this award goes to. Byung Ho-Park, now in the minors, hit .191 through 62 games. His 80 strike-outs is a team high and his .409 slugging percentage is worse than Kurt Suzuki's.
 
The "big move" in the off-season for the Twins, Park started off well enough. He had a .578 slugging percentage through the first 32 games along with nine home runs. Then, he fell off a friggin' cliff.
 
Over the last 30 games, Park has hit .123 with 42 strike-outs and just three home-runs.
 
He's now in the minors trying to figure it out but that's not where you want a guy you spent $12.85 million on just to negotiate a contract. He is suppose to have "figured it out" already.
 
I said when the signing went down that we could have another Nishioka on our hands. A terribly easy correlation, I know, but still one that is beginning to come to fruition.
 
Worst Pitcher
Again, so many options. Phil Hughes? Trevor May? Kyle Gibson? All viable candidates. For me, though, I like Kevin Jepsen for this role.
 
Those other three have been dealing with injuries this season. Hughes' injury is so significant he has been shut down for the rest of the year. Jepsen, though, hasn't had to deal with any of these things.
 
I already covered the statistical side of things in the opening of this post. I think that would do more than enough to make you understand why he has been this season's worst pitcher.
 
Then there is this: One of the players the Twins gave up in the Jepsen trade, Chih-Wei Hu, is headed to this season's Futures Game on July 10. Which leads me to my next and final award...
 
Who Is To Blame
Terry Ryan. What kind of bullpen help did he bring in? Frenando Abad. Granted, he's been the lone bright spot for the Twins this season. Past that...
 
What kind of rotation help did he think about bringing in? Re-signing Tommy Milone and hoping a guy like Ricky Nolasco could turn it around. He figured Phil Hughes and Ervin Santana would be better. He also figured guys like Tyler Duffey and Jose Berrios would push the veterans like Milone and Nalsco. Yet....
 
You also have the issue of Trevor May. Is he a starter? Isn't he a starter? They couldn't quite figure it out. I can't imagine what that does to the psyche of a pitcher. A guy that either has to mentally prepare every day or every fifth day. He can't get into a grove for either job.
 
The Jepsen trade, which at the time was questionable, now just looks laughable. The Aaron Hicks for John Ryan Murphy trade? Would have been the worst in his tenure as Twins' General Manager if not for the fact Hicks has been awful for the Yankees this season.
 
There is the lack of looking to trade Trevor Plouffe and insisting that Miguel Sano will be just fine out in right field. Now, Plouffe's trade value is much lower than and Sano has never seemed comfortable in right field.
 
The organization lacks pitching prospect depth and a catcher of the future.
 
Last season's success seems more like a fluke than something the Twins could have built on.
 
If you want to blame the coaching staff you certainly can. I won't argue with that point. I believe the problems rest more on Ryan's shoulders than anybody else.
 
I don't think he returns for 2017. He may be the beginning of a long list of changes the organization should go through this off-season. Or sooner.

I am new to Twins Daily, and this is my first blog posting on here. With the most recent news of the Twins calling up Byron Buxton, I figured what better time to write my first blog post. I, like all other die-hard Twins fans have suffered through four long years of extremely disappointing and hard to watch baseball. While I don't view him as the fix-all savior for this team, I do believe he is going to be a key fixture in a very potent lineup for years to come, and am pretty pumped and optimistic about this move by the Twins FO. My question is this year, what impact will he have? How much better will the Twins be with him playing center and in the lineup every day? Here's my stab at answering that question. And while I may be an optimistic fan, I don't think I'm too far off base.
 
I think the Twins need to have Buxton play every day as their lead-off man. While Brian Dozier has been solid there, I am a firm believer that your team leader in home runs should not be your lead-off man. Dozier has been the most consistent hitter in the Twins lineup, but is only 4th on the team in RBI. You've got to think that if he had been hitting second or third, that he'd be competing for first in RBI. I'd also love to see him start hitting some 2 and 3 run home runs instead of all those solo shots. Not to fault Molitor in any way, Dozier has been the most consistent table setter, and they really have had no other options...up until now, that is. Joe Mauers' struggles have been well documented, but the one thing he has done well is hit with runners in scoring position. So having Buxton and Dozier batting in front of him, makes me optimistic that we can hopefully see more of those situations in which Joe seems to thrive. We may not see him hit .325 again, but if we can at least consistently get guys on in front of him and watch him drive in 90-100 runners, it makes that $23 million salary a little more palatable. Plouffe is not anyone's dream clean-up hitter, but he is consistent enough for now until its Miguel Sano's time to shine. And he seems to be climbing out of his slump ever so slightly over the past couple of games.Personally, I really like Plouffe, but my guess is the Twins deal him at the end of July for a pitcher or a catcher if they're still contending...or for couple of prospects if they've fallen off the map. I would expect that would be the time Sano gets his call. That leaves you with Torii batting fifth, instead of second, which makes me much more comfortable. Betting sixth, you've got Kennys Vargas. This might be the biggest improvement in my opinion. I heard on the broadcast today that Vargas is hitting below .200 when batting 4th or 5th. But he is batting right around .350 when batting 6th or 7th. By having Buxton in the lineup, now the Twins can bat Vargas in a less high-pressure spot, allow him to get comfortable, and then down the road they can consider sliding him back up in the lineup where his (hopeful) power will play better. You've then got Rosario batting seventh, Suzuki eighth, and E2 batting ninth. To me, that's all of a sudden a lineup that doesn't make you want to shut the game off after the number 5 batter hits.
 
Anyway, just my two cents. Statistically wise, not quite sure what line Buxton puts up this year, but I'd be happy with him leading off the rest of the year and putting up a line around .280/.350/.450 and stealing 10-15 bases. His defense I think, will make the Twins significantly better. Personally I'd love to see Hicks stick around as the 4th outfielder, splitting time with Torii Hunter in right. I think his defense is good enough to earn him that platoon role (with the exception of last nights disaster he's been pretty good). An outfield of Hicks/Hunter, Buxton and Rosario seems better than anything we've seen so far this year. After this afternoon I'd be just fine with never seeing E2 in the outfield again, and hopefully this move makes that possible.
 
Anyway, please chime in with thoughts on how you expect Byron Buxton to contribute to, and better this team.