Doomtints

Good article and discussion.

Sellers. Twins are trying to run the wrong way on the conveyor belt now.

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I have always been higher on Jorge than other people, but I am unsure about this move at this time. It's unfortunate that the Twins have to dig this deep just to make it through the weekend, but this is their own fault.

Anyone who is "very good" would not be signing off on a system where only a runner's fastest second is measured. That's peak speed, not sprint speed. In fact, this entire idea is laughable and I'm surprised anyone would play along! I don't know why people who consume baseball stats never question what they are being fed. This contributes to people like Tom Tango being in an echo chamber where work is not properly vetted. There are multiple problems with MLBs definition of "sprint" and their implementation of a "fastest runner" metric. It would take competitive sprinters 3 seconds to reach first base. Sprint runners would laugh in your face if you counted the fastest second in a 3 second window and tried to apply that to the whole. Professional sprinters will also tell you that it is the slowest second that matters -- not the fastest. Races are won by mastering the quick launch, esp. in the 60m, and making it to a base is half that. There is a reason all seconds in a race count. There is also a reason Bill James mocks most sanctioned baseball metrics and the people who consume them without checking for themselves.

MLB has a flawed approach. This is why others need to be doing the metrics.

Breslow was good until this month, with a 1.47 ERA one month ago tomorrow. Which free agent pitchers do you think are better? You saw the Twins picked up Gee from waivers, I'm guessing, so you can't say they haven't been paying attention.

Generally I am against myopic responses and solutions, but there is too much to fix with the pitching and there are no extraneous players on this team apart from Dozier. They had better not be trading Dozier for bullpen arms, and they had better not be making holes elsewhere to get a deal done either. I'm not worried about it, I'm taking a leap of faith and hoping Twins management knows they have no one to spare. Fixing the pitching with this team has to be a process, not an event. It's going to take time. There are simply no trades possible that would fix every pitching problem this team has, nor are there any trades possible that would bring the team's pitching up to average. It's sink or swim with what they have or trade with cash, and cash only deals make the Twins a last resort trading partner. No one wants the Twins 6.00 ERA guns.

And their defense is #2.

Those stats don't match. A guy with a .500 record would be a #3 starter. A guy with a 4.50 ERA would be a #4 or #3 starter. A guy with 28-30 starts would be a #3 starter or better. How about if we just say we hope for the best for Gibson and leave it at that? If you just want him to be a #5, he can get 6-7 wins, pitch around half a season, and have an ERA near or above 5. Not very exciting. He is pretty much already there.

I felt like they were going to return the favor and sweep the series, but I didn't want to jinx it by saying anything.

This has to be crushing for the Tribe, who thought they knew who the Twins were. Note that the Indians, like the Twins, have a terrible home record.

Heard him a little bit. I don't think he is amazing, but he has a fresh perspective. Eventually his perspective will be as stale as any other, mind you.

Seems like they can put things together when they really have to.

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The master Bill James himself analyzed the 87 Twins, who media and fans said had "no pitching" apart from two starters. His analysis was that this is WRONG. The Twins had typical #1, #2, #4, #5 starters. The only piece the 87 Twins lacked was a #3 starter. James discovered that #4/#5 starters on championship teams never have winning records, and in fact tend to be terrible. And down the stretch, Straker stepped up and was the #3 when it counted.

Looks like the Twins learned from the Indians sweep and are about to return the favor.

Is Gibson back? I don't think so. The Twin are using him VERY carefully. He is surviving right now due to smart management. When he lasts more than 5 innings and gets out of some jams, then we can talk.

It felt to me like these two were on the roster FOR-EVER without ever throwing a pitch for the team. They feel like remnants from an era that I want to close the book on. Having guys on the roster that they can't use, esp. for so long, was hurting the team. I'm 100% fine with moving on.

I don't remember hearing that around here. The Twins seemed mostly silent about Nolasco and most of us were done with him early on. We felt we were stuck with him due to his contract. The "Ignore everything else, just buy guys with a low FIP" experiment died fast, no?

He had a boatload of unearned runs this year. ERA+ would be comparing his ERA to the ERA of the league, so the unearned runs don't count. Plus you have to consider that his sample size is 4 relief appearances. But yes, I'm not sure what the Twins will get out of Gee. Certainly more than Hurley, and hopefully more than Gibson/Hughes/Santiago. But it won't be much more. In any case, he's not stretched out so he is probably going to the pen.

As I have said before, to us it was obvious that the Twins needed to replace 3/4 of the pitching staff. However, to any incoming management team this would have seemed ridiculous. It makes sense that they wanted a year to evaluate and see for themselves. Plus, it's doubtful they got this message from the internal staff that stayed on, as they would have been trying to prove they had made good player decisions before the new sheriff arrived. Consider this the "rubber year" where new management figures things out. If we're sitting here next year with the same crappy pitching staff then I think we have cause for concern. We have to put up with this year and by everyone's measure the Twins are outperforming what we expected. Lots of good stuff going on.

Looks like Gee is being called up sooner rather than later. This means it's unlikely he goes to the rotation as he would need to be stretched out first.

Blyleven, 1971 ERA+ 126 Liriano, 2006 ERA+ 206 Next?