Doomtints

No one said the two are equal risks. No two players ever are. Nonetheless, this is still "how this works." How you answer the question I offered to you is exactly how you determine if the trade makes sense. (Though maybe you don't use WAR, likely a front office uses other measurements that are more particulate). To you, it seems the trade does not make sense. That's fine. You can say that instead of saying, "that's not how this works" while then giving an example that supports my point. If you think De Leon might give 0 WAR and Dozier definitely will not, you just answered my question.

If you think Dozier is going to hit 40 home runs a year, sure. But what if he goes back to hitting 25? Which player has more WAR ahead of them in their careers? Dozier or De Leon? What about the WAR for rest of their contracts?

Dozier's bat is extraneous. If Sano plays to his potential, Buxton turns the corner, and Vargas/Park figue things out, you already passed Dozier's production. Polanco just needs to keep doing what he is doing. It's the other guys who need to step up to fill Dozier's shoes.

Don't let his spot in the draft fool you. De Leon is universally considered the Dodger's #1 pitching prospect, and he is on a team that has a lot of good pitching prospects. Don't forget that Dozier was drafted at #252 and averaged 4 home runs a year in the minors. De Leon is another guy who continues to get better as time goes on.

Probably neither really. I think he was given info that was believed to be true by whoever told him. But his source does not appear to be a primary source because there was no completed deal that was 48 hours away from execution. None of this matters ultimately. Rumors are rumors, we all know that. This doesn't reflect negatively on anybody. This website has gone crazy and talked about little else, but there is nothing wrong with that either, even if some of us are a bit tired of talking about it. The owners of the website probably appreciate the traffic.

Fixed.

There are many more creative ways to make a Dozier trade happen. 1) Did Terry Ryan take the Scotch and Bourbon supply with him when he left? De Leon + a case will do. 2) Without Bill Smith around who will keep the ice bucket full on the drinking cart? This is an essential role that needs to be filled for any GM. De Leon + the Dodgers drinking cart guy. This is one of the toughest jobs in any MLB organization and the Twins need to make sure they have a veteran for the job. 3) Trading Rule 4 draft spots or Rule 5 draft spots is out of the question, but what about Rules 1-3 draft spots? (Rule 1 = The Baseball Owner's Yearly Caviar Supply Draft, Rule 2 = MLB Jet Timeshare Draft, Rule 3 = Bermuda Tax Shelter/Winter Vacation Timeshare Draft). 4) De Leon + unlimited access to the Dodgers team guest mansion in LA. Would be nice for the Minnesota winters (assuming the new leadership is even in MN this winter, I guess). 5) De Leon + new velvet smoking jackets for the C-level and higher Twins staff. Hugh Hefner has a good supply of such jackets. Does Hefner still live next door to the old Dodgers owner? Hook up the Twins, yo. See? When dealing with men of extreme privilege there are dozens of great options of tradeable assets. All they have to do is think outside the box.

You're still missing the point. How it went down behind the scenes is 100% irrelevant. I am 100% talking about an ultimatum from the Twins going to the press.

LEN3 published it He does not work for the Dodgers.

You are completely not understanding. The best way to tell the Dodgers that you are going to walk away if they don't adjust the offer soon is to pick up the phone and tell them directly. You don't toss the story to your beat reporter and walk away. This is bad business and a n00b action. The likelihood of this working out in the Twins favor is near zero. If a deal gets done it will be in spite of this behavior, not because of it. And future GMs aren't going to want to do business with the Twins if they are going to cry to the media if a deal isn't going in their favor. Note that baseball has very strong rules about leaking negotiations for players to the press. If the Dodgers are feeling particularly snarky they could file a grievance with the commissioner. Whoever is negotiating this on behalf of the Twins has clearly never negotiated before. This move smacks of desperation and shows that they really want to move Dozier and the Dodgers are holding all the cards, in spite of them saying the opposite to their on staff beat reporter.

All Atlanta needs to do is look at the Twins 2016 season to know that Dozier isn't a fit for them right now.

Yes, I think so. Grossman didn't show any offensive prowess until last year whereas those others have. Grossman is a strong regression candidate, though yes regression is impossible to predict. Plus, if Grossman becomes the bench bat, suddenly you are blocking Park, Vargas, etc. If Grossman learns to play some defense he instantly becomes incredibly valuable to this team and there is no way the team should part with him. This is the path for Grossman to remain in the bigs.

Sure but this has nothing to do with what I said. I'm talking about using the press to announce you are walking away.

If you are prepared to walk away then you simply walk away. You don't do this. For every deal made there are hundreds not made. How many times have you seen a team not get what they wanted use their beat reporter to make an ultimatum before walking away?

Making public ultimatums to your trade partners is bad business. Good luck, guys. You just made it harder to get this deal done and any other future deals done.

Some people have started saying that the deal on the table is for De Leon only. No second piece, no third piece. This is why things have not moved. DaveW insists there are more pieces being worked on, which suggests his source is within the Twins and not the Dodgers and that the two teams are actually very far apart.

I'm not sure I would give Berrios an F for looking just like May and Meyer when they arrived. This is too much of a coincidence for it to not be the team's fault. All of these guys should be tossing with lower velocity until they learn better control, which means they should not have been called to the majors. This is on the Twins. As for Duffey, he was put in the rotation for some spot starts because the Twins had no one else. He performed well and Molitor said he'd keep him in the rotation as long as he performed. Well, he stopped performing. Duffey would be a great bullpen arm and that's where he needs to be. I agree with the others that there is a strong argument to give Santana an A-.

How did he manage 4 starts for the Dodgers after the September call ups if his shoulder was busted at the end of the year?

I think you are going on the defense rather than trying to look at things objectively, because this point is far off from the discussion. Casual fans follow teams based on W-L records and playoff berths. What you are worried about are Brian Dozier fans, not casual Twins fans. Your point seems to be that some Brian Dozier fans would not be smart enough to understand that trading him is necessary for the team to rebuild and thus they would tune out the Twins unless they can find another veteran player to latch onto. I disagree with that point, too, but even if true, how much of an attendance drop would are you expecting here? And wouldn't they stop showing up whether or not the trade is a good one? Dozier was the top Twins performer in 2016. But I would bet the fans are more into people like Sano and Buxton. Any Dozier fans probably would love rooting for Sano instead. I'm also not seeing how we would think that these types of fans would even know what was a good trade or not. It takes all of us a few years to figure that out. Why would casual fans know right away?

What shoulder issues? Do you really think the Twins are going to get a team's #1 pitching prospect plus a handful of other guys for Brian Dozier?

Seems like cherry picking players from 5 years ago. People were not high on Dozier when he came up, either.

Both would be bad. Of the two, making no move would be seen as worse in the short term. It would take years to know if the trade is good for the Twins, regardless of the players. By then, the FO would have been running things for a few years and we would know if they were competent or not based on a fuller picture of decisions made....

Oh believe me ... whether or not the Twins land De Leon we will be looking back on this one and analyzing it.

I'm not convinced that Dozier will regress right away, though yes evidence suggests he will. What I am convinced of is that Polanco is going to be a good player and the Twins are lacking around four starting pitchers that they can count on. My opinions are not based on Dozier being terrible in the future. For me, it's about the Twins fixing their problems. This is a great opportunity to start doing that. Even if you don't think De Leon = Dozier, do you think De Leon + Polanco = Dozier? What about De Leon + Polanco + Whoever Else The Twins Get = Dozier? It's difficult to believe the Twins come away as losers when you consider every piece of the puzzle. I see why we are disagreeing. In some ways we're not understanding each other, but we also have the players valued very differently. Mostly I'm looking at the players as chess pieces. I'm not emotionally invested in any of them. If Dozier goes to the Dodgers, he probably gets a WS ring and he is probably a key factor in the team earning that ring. This doesn't mean sending him to the Dodgers is the wrong move for the Twins. On the contrary, this makes it a win-win for both teams. The Dodgers get their championship and the Twins get a foundation set for the future. Note that "Dozier = about to regress terribly" is not a factor in this opinion at all.

I have seen a different video of him pitching. His delivery seems fine, it's what his arm does after he releases the ball that seems like he could damage something. The weirdness is after he releases the ball. You can't see it in this particular video.