Andrew Bryz-Gornia

Hard disagree, especially since Meg Rowley of FanGraphs has expressed her displeasure of MLB using her site's WAR calculation for arbitration like Brock already mentioned. This is a case where some of the "nerds" don't want to be involved.

fWAR uses FIP, not xFIP. Pitchers are rewarded if they don't allow home runs rather than being judged on their expected home runs allowed.

MLB can say that it's to draw in more fans, but I feel it's really just another stream of money going to the owners.

I can't explain it for you, but for me, they were underwhelming because it seemed like the strongest arms were throwing much harder than they really were. Knowing that Carlos Correa's top 5% of 2022 throws averaged 88.0 MPH just doesn't feel impressive, likely because we're used to pitchers hitting 95+ MPH with ease nowadays. Then again, the counterargument is that the strongest throwers often get converted into pitchers, leaving a weaker subset behind.

I can explain Arraez's arm strength. The 90.2 MPH is actually from 2021 when he was playing far more LF. Statcast pointed out that outfielders naturally have stronger arms than infielders because they have to make longer throws, so Arraez's arm strength is skewed. That's reaffirmed because his 2022 arm strength was 82.7 MPH where he exclusively played 1B and 2B. He didn't lose arm strength, he just played two positions where he didn't need to show it off as much. Regardless, this is the Cuddyer/Sano argument all over again. A strong arm isn't as helpful if you don't have the range for a more demanding position. Just because Arraez has a strong-ish arm doesn't mean it makes up for his other defensive deficiencies.

I agree, Cave's constant hustle was admirable as the season fell apart. I have one complaint though, speed score does not equal a player's running speed. Baseball Savant's sprint speed says he was at 28.0 ft/sec, 8th on the Twins with at least one recorded sprint. Speed score (if you're using FanGraphs' speed score) uses a player's stolen base percentage, frequency of stolen bases, percentage of triples, and runs scored percentage, and FG admits it's an outdated statistic. There's no way it's a reliable way to say Cave was the third-fastest Twin this year. https://library.fangraphs.com/offense/spd/

This is such a cool article and something I didn't know about behind-the-scenes work. Great work, Melissa!

This is a really good article. I do have to complain about the tweet that got me to read this article ("Is velocity overrated?") because no, I don't believe it is overrated. However, it is highly valued and it does seem like Falvey/Levine would rather take advantage of other organizations' desire for it and save their money for lesser but also cheaper pitchers. Besides, pitchers (especially bullpens) are highly volatile, so committing only to flamethrowers may not be the best strategy anyway.

The Twins had the 14th-lowest K% last season at 23.1%. He really only fits in with Miguel Sano.

It's not, the sweeper is more like a slow slider or hard curveball with a ton of horizontal break. The cutter is a hard slider with just a little break.

I don't think it should be a concern for free agent starting pitchers. This model sounds like a variation of the opener or planned bullpen games, but those still use prototypical starters in the other rotation spots. Someone like Pineda will be relatively cheap and can go 5-6 innings consistently (when healthy). Bring him back (or sign someone similar), splash on a higher-end starting pitcher, and then the other rotation spots can be the 3-inning guys.

I constantly look over stats as part of my MLB The Show home project, and every organization has multiple minor league relievers that end up with quite a few more innings than appearances. I think it comes out of necessity of having frequent roster turnover, so you need a few guys to eat up innings. I'm not saying the idea is wrong, I just think the Twins aren't telegraphing anything here as much as it may seem.

That's so interesting that Jax rated so highly. I wasn't impressed with his pitching this year, but perhaps he just needs a tweak or something that will help him improve.

I have no idea, either. I just pulled up his FanGraphs page and now he's at .203/.297/.401 which is a 93 wRC+. I have doubts the 114 wRC+ number was correct.

I think we're suffering from some recency bias here, and also dismissing some of the circumstances that have amplified the departures of these players. Baddoo was a Rule 5 gamble due to his injury history and the fact he had never played above High-A. The Twins most likely were never going to call him up to the majors this year unless he put together some dominant numbers on the farm, and even then, he was buried on the depth chart. Wade was the 5th or 6th outfielder on the 40-man roster, and his lefthanded bat was superfluous with Kepler, Cave, Larnach, and Kirilloff ahead of him or likely to pass him on the depth chart. His absence is being amplified because of injuries to the entire starting outfield this season. (Okay, maybe Buxton's was "predictable," but Kepler's and Cave's were less expected.) He'd absolutely be nice to have now, but he was easily an extraneous outfield piece when the trade first occurred. For what it's worth, I think it was Thad Levine that did admit after Anderson's rookie season that the Twins improperly evaluated him. I find that frustrating because he was so dominant in the minor leagues, yet they didn't give him a chance in the majors. Through Falvey's and Levine's tenure in the front office, I feel they've mainly jettisoned intriguing minor league relief pitchers (Burdi, Reed, Anderson, etc.) with varying results. I would say this is my biggest concern with their talent evaluation.

I feel the groin strain *caused* the 62-MPH curveball, considering he usually throws it in the high-60s/low-70s. I'm just impressed he threw it in the strike zone.

It's subtle but there is a difference. The first one is a bit more uncoordinated, whereas the Twins one is more controlled. Parker also passed on explaining the difference in hand placement and that he's a little more upright in the Twins batting stance. Also, this "no one likes a leg kick" comment is just flat-out wrong. If anything, leg kicks have become more popular over the past few years.

A big reason is their starting pitching depth. With Carlos Martinez, Luke Weaver, Miles Mikolas, Michael Wacha, and Adam Wainwright (and Alex Reyes on the mend), there isn't room for Lynn, plus he's probably the worst out of all those pitchers. They also traded away Mike Leake late in the season, so re-signing Lynn would be strictly for gaining some expensive depth.

Off-topic from the main article, but related to your anecdote... I work for Inside Edge part-time and one of the things we do is rate how hard a ball was hit. After a Dozier HR, one of my coworkers said that none of his HR are well-hit. I thought my coworker was being serious because I too feel that most of Dozier's home runs are short, towering fly balls. It turned out the guy actually lost an office-wide Beat the Streak due to Dozier and has disliked him ever since, haha.

For the record, it's not our decision to call it Twinkie Town, that came from SB Nation/Vox Media. I guarantee that us TT writers do not think it's clever or cute.

1) I know the TD crew tried branching out with Wild, Vikings, and Timberwolves sites, but those didn't generate as much traffic. I bet you meant branching further into the baseball world, though. 2) I can't speak for Puckett's Pond, but I know that TT gained its search clout thanks to being part of Vox Media. The school I teach at has had the same problem, it's a private school that as recently as last year appeared on the ~10th page of results when you searched "private schools Minnesota," and our HR department shared that they had to directly work with Google (i.e. probably pay money) to get our school moved up to the 2nd or 3rd page.

Hey everyone, For those of you that don't know me, I write for Twinkie Town, a member of SB Nation and Vox Media. Twins Daily launched shortly after I joined Twinkie Town, and I attempted to write on both websites at the same time. I've expressed this to John in person, but my biggest issue was when I'd write a blog post that took a lot of time and effort and I was proud of my final result, yet it never saw the TD front page. It was disheartening, and after having that happen a couple times, I quit writing on TD because I knew all of my TT writing was guaranteed to be put on the front page. (For the record, I am not paid at TT so this was not a financial decision.) I still lurk on TD from time to time, reading any articles that look interesting from the TD Twitter feed. I feel that there needs to be a Twins Daily person devoted entirely to promoting articles from the blogs to the front page. Additionally, it might help if there is some way for that TD person to be notified every time a new blog post is submitted. It'll become overwhelming with enough new blog posts, but when that time comes, you'd just add on another person or two to review the incoming articles. I feel that this would be the easiest way to fix the main problem of struggling to organically develop writers.

Download attachment: Dozier.jpg Two weeks ago, I had a post where I guessed the probabilities of four non-roster invitees successfully making the Twins’ Opening Day roster. At the very bottom was “savior” Brian Dozier, stating that his probability was an F. No chance. Nada. Well, it looks like one of the Twins brass doesn’t agree. General Manager Terry Ryan stated that the recent demotion of Tsuyoshi Nishioka “has nothing to do with Dozier,” but that could easily be interpreted to mean “Nishioka’s only shot of starting the season with us was as a utility infielder, and Dozier’s not going to fill that role for us.” [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] There seems to be some rumblings that Dozier is not guaranteed of being sent to the minor leagues, as I first thought. For one, he’s now survived two sets of cuts from spring training, despite the fact that he’s never seen any action in Triple-A.* Two, even with the offseason signing of Jamey Carroll to play shortstop, there’s still a way to fit Dozier into the picture. * Though the same can be said of Joe Benson and Chris Parmelee, and neither of them are likely to be on the major league roster at the beginning of the season, either. Carroll and projected starting second baseman Alexi Casilla both have the ability to play the middle infield positions. The same is true for Dozier, though there are some questions on his range at shortstop. Additionally, the removal of Nishioka means the Twins do not have a really good backup infield option for the bench. It could be Luke Hughes, but the Twins won’t put him at shortstop unless it’s an emergency. It might be Trevor Plouffe, but the Twins appear to want him to become a full-time outfielder. Out of Carroll, Casilla, and Dozier, it’s clear that Dozier will not be the utility infielder. While I won’t place him on a pedestal like Tom Powers, I do think he has a chance of being a Danny Valencia-esque player at shortstop (read: someone that won’t be a star, but can hold down the fort, possibly all the way through his arbitration years). However, Carroll and Casilla are good fits for this role. Certainly Carroll isn’t preferable because of his contract, but that’s been his role for his whole career. Meanwhile, Casilla is the cheaper option, and I don’t think anyone could really argue that moving him to backing up the infield will hurt the team. This means that we have several possibilities that could play out if Dozier indeed breaks camp with the major league club. He could be the starting shortstop, with either Casilla or Carroll manning second while the other is on the bench, or Dozier is at second base with the same arrangement for Carroll at shortstop and Casilla on the bench or vice-versa. If this was to happen, I’d hope for Dozier to be at shortstop (provided his defense has been proven to be adequate) with Carroll at second base. But will this happen? I still think no. Just like with Parmelee and Benson, I feel that Dozier is destined for Triple-A. The Twins may be talking him up right now, but his lack of experience above Double-A is currently a red flag. Sure, there have been people promoted directly to the big leagues from Double-A that stuck, but those are typically top prospects, not fringe guys like Dozier. While there may be hints from the front office that he has a chance of joining the Twins in Baltimore to kick off the season, I still feel it won’t happen. That F that I gave him two weeks ago is going to stick. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: tampa-rays.jpg Buyer or Seller? All Tampa had to do was exorcise the Devil. Although smarter baseball decisions and being the beneficiaries of a never-ending parade of minor league prospects led to success in St. Petersburg, one cannot help but notice the coincidence of the team becoming winners ever since they changed their team name from “Devil Rays” to simply “Rays.” That success has continued this year in the hellish AL East as they find themselves battling the Boston Red Sox both for the division lead and the best record in the American League, while trying to fend off the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees. Despite trading away top starter James Shields, they have not missed a beat this year and find themselves looking to add some reinforcements for the rest of the season and the playoffs. But, where can they still improve? What They Need Starting Pitching At the beginning of the season, it looked like the Rays made an absolute steal in picking up Roberto Hernandez (the former “Faux-sto” Carmona) in free agency, but his numbers have regressed to the point that he now has a high-4 ERA. A similar story is Jeremy Hellickson, who had beaten his peripheral numbers in his first two full seasons, but is now underperforming those numbers as he has a 4.62 ERA but a 3.84 FIP. One reinforcement is for Alex Cobb to return as he was one of their best pitchers prior to getting hit in the head with a line drive from Eric Hosmer on June 15th. Cobb suffered a concussion and is eying a return in August, but us Twins fans know that concussions can be finicky. If Cobb is unable to return and youngster Chris Archer starts to fade towards the end of the season, the Rays might be interested in a veteran starting pitcher. Relief Pitching It seems like every playoff team always could use one more arm in the bullpen. With the exception of Alex Torres (who is having one hell of a season thus far), the Rays don’t have a shutdown reliever in the ‘pen. Jamey Wright is pitching well, but this is out of the ordinary for him. Fernando Rodney, a year removed from his record-setting season last year, has returned to the pitcher we know and love as his ERA is hovering around 4 as the closer for the Rays. They do have a solid setup reliever in Joel Peralta, and the supporting cast has actually pitched pretty well in spite of their ERAs. A savvy organization like the Rays could point to that as a reason to stick with what they have, but one could also argue that they might not trust Rodney as the closer and would look for an upgrade. Plus, as I first said, a playoff team seemingly always could use one more reliever, so perhaps they’d like a cheaper setup man instead. Catcher This one is a little tricky and I could actually be swayed to believe that this really isn’t a need. The Rays are pretty solid across the board with their position players, and the only position that is debatable is catcher. Right now, Jose Lobaton and Jose Molina have split the catching duties evenly this season. Lobaton’s offense has been perfectly acceptable as catcher, and while Molina’s offense is closer to what you’d expect in a backup catcher, his defense is highly regarded, especially in pitch framing. I could see the Rays arguing that they are content with Lobaton’s offense and Molina’s defense, but the Twins do have a player that could present an upgrade. No, it’s not Joe Mauer, get your head out of the sand. What Might Work Starting Pitching With Roberto Hernandez struggling, his rotation spot is the easy choice to replace. This could be Alex Cobb, but if he’s not fully recovered from his concussion, this may be a case where the Rays could look towards the Twins’ Kevin Correia, Mike Pelfrey, or even Samuel Deduno. But, would they consider replacing Roberto Hernandez with Deduno, who is a similar pitcher? Relief Pitching This is pretty much the usual suspects you’d expect the Twins to shop around from their bullpen: Casey Fien, Jared Burton, and Glen Perkins. If the Rays feel like targeting an undervalued asset, then we could probably toss in Brian Duensing as well to team up with fellow lefties Jake McGee and Cesar Ramos. Catcher My suggestion here is that Ryan Doumit is a possibility, but he isn’t hitting well this year and his defense at catcher is a liability. Although he does have some positional flexibility with playing the outfield, the Rays are set with Wil Myers, Matt Joyce, Ben Zobrist, and Kelly Johnson covering the corners. Plus, as I mentioned before, they may just be content with their timeshare of Joses Lobaton & Molina and think that Doumit’s overall value won’t be an improvement. Sleeper Targets Most of the Rays’ middle range prospects are either outfielders or pitchers, and the Twins seem set on the outfield for eternity, so I specifically looked at starting pitchers they could target. SP Blake Snell (Low-A) Snell is a 20-year old left-handed pitcher that was just drafted in 2011 from Shorewood HS in Washington. He has a low-90s fastball as part of the standard 4-pitch mix (fastball, slider, curve, change-up) and reportedly will throw his breaking balls with different tilts. He has struggled with his control in Single-A this year (6.32 BB/9) so he represents quite a bit of risk, but his change-up and slider are projected to be above-average pitches. He will be a bit of a project and won’t be expected to debut in the majors for a few more years, but he could be another starting pitcher to look forward to in the next couple seasons. SP Felipe Rivero (High-A) Rivero is another lefthander that is 22 years old from Venezuela. He features a low-90s fastball with good command, a quality curveball and a change-up. However, he is very small (6’0”, 150 lbs.) and thus a full workload as a starting pitcher is a real concern. Also, his strikeouts have already been dropping significantly in the low minors, so he might end up being another pitch-to-contact hurler. He has a good chance of becoming a reliever, so Rivero may be the return for a lesser value Twin, such as Correia or Pelfrey. SP Alex Colome (Triple-A / Majors) Colome is a 24-year old righthander from the Dominican Republic. He features the best fastball out of these three pitchers as it can touch the mid-90s, and he also mixes in a potentially above-average curveball and a cutter/slider hybrid pitch. Colome has already made 3 starts for Tampa Bay this season, so he could appeal to the Twins as a major league ready starting pitcher. As you might expect from a pitcher with a big arm, Colome has control issues so walks will definitely be a problem. He could end up as a late inning reliever, but certainly the Twins would give him plenty of chances to stick as a starter before putting him on the Glen Perkins track (not to say he’d become as dominant as Perkins). Dream Target SP Chris Archer (Triple-A / Majors) I see Chris Archer and can’t help but think that he’s a better version of Alex Colome. Another 24-year old, Archer also has a mid-90s fastball and 2-seamer and backs those up with an excellent slider (Archer’s is discussed as the best secondary offering from a prospect) and a developing change-up. He does have the ability to rack up strikeouts with those two pitches, but his change-up and control will likely be the determining factor if he can stick in the majors as a starter or if he is destined to become a reliever. Adding Archer to the Twins’ future plans would make him a nice piece to team up with Alex Meyer, Trevor May, and Kyle Gibson in the rotation for the next few years. Click here to view the article

Since the first season at Target Field in 2010, there’s been a common complaint among hitters: the fences are too far away. We’ve seen and heard of players attempting to pull the ball down the lines because that’s the best way to get the ball out of the park. These pictures of home runs at Target Field confirms this belief (from Hit Tracker Online). [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] http://weareoffthemark.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/target-field-2011.jpg?w=450&h=441 Target Field Home Runs 2011 http://weareoffthemark.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/target-field-2010.jpg?w=450&h=441 Target Field Home Runs 2010 You may have some questions about these pictures. Why is there a percentage in the upper right corner of each picture? Why are those lines there? Why are the areas not even? Look at the TF 2011 picture. You’ll notice that most home runs are contained within the right and left field portions of the field. I will admit that these lines are completely drawn arbitrarily, and it certainly is odd that I made one side bigger than the other. For that, I’ll point towards the fences at Target Field. You know that the right field fence is taller than the left field fence, and that (along with wind currents, or Baseball Gods, or something) have managed to cause fewer balls to go out in the RF alley compared to the LF alley. Anyway, despite the unevenness, a nice coincidence is that this area sums to an angle of 45%, or half of a baseball field. Now, another complaint you may have is that obviously it will be easier to hit the ball out down the lines than to straightaway center field. This is why I’ve included the percentages in the upper right. These represent the percentage of home runs that were hit into the outer two areas last season. As you can see, both are 77% (2011 should actually be 78%, and 2010′s rounded up to 77%, so it was not actually equal each season). For comparison, I’ve included a more homer-friendly park in Chicago’s U.S. Cellular Field, and also the Metrodome in 2009. http://weareoffthemark.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/us-cellular-2011.png?w=450&h=442 U.S. Cellular Field 2011 http://weareoffthemark.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/metrodome-2009.jpg?w=450&h=442 Metrodome 2009 I’ll admit that 73% doesn’t seem all that different from 77%, but maybe the players are able to take more notice than we can. However, there’s no denying the difference between the Dome and Target Field. Not only were there more homers hit in 2009, but they were also sent out more frequently to center field and the alleys, as only 66% of all home runs were hit into the left field and right field areas. Players started getting it into their minds that they had to pull the ball to get it out of the park (except Jim Thome), and it started affecting their hitting. With this in the back of my head, I’m wondering if the Twins haven’t adopted a new philosophy when it comes to hitting. You may be familiar with “Whitey-ball,” dubbed for Whitey Herzog, manager of the St. Louis Cardinals in the 1980s. His team relied on speed, defense, and hitting line drives to take advantage of the AstroTurf in Busch Memorial Stadium, and Whitey-ball was credited with helping the team win the 1982 World Series. Starting with last season, it appears as though the Twins have adopted a similar mindset. This started with the trade of J.J. Hardy prior to last season, where the Twins cited a need to add speed to the lineup. From last season and this offseason, they lost Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, and Jim Thome, three big home run hitters, and really only have Josh Willingham has a viable power replacement. It’s Whitey-ball, or perhaps more appropriately the return of Gardy-ball. Back in the Dome days, Gardy-ball was essentially the mirror image of Whitey-ball. But now, it’s being done for a whole different reason. Over the past two seasons, hitters have been altering their swings to hit the ball out. With this current lineup, it’s as if the Twins have assembled a group of slap hitters and are going to tell them, “Don’t even attempt to beat the system.” The Twins are likely going to be having these guys hitting in order next season: Alexi Casilla (8th), Ben Revere (9th), Denard Span (1st), Jamey Carroll (2nd). Those guys certainly are not going to get many people excited, as evidenced by Patrick Reusse and my response to him over a week ago. It is indeed like a relay team of leadoff hitters, none of which are going to challenge 10 homers this season, so maybe it’s not necessarily “Don’t even attempt to beat the system,” but rather “Don’t even attempt to beat the system (it’s not like you have a chance in the first place).” In fact, that’s almost exactly what Twins hitting coach Joe Vavra said in an interview with the Pioneer Press: “We have to stop thinking we can beat that ballpark.” It sounds like Vavra wants to get the hitters back into spraying the ball around the field instead of trying to yank everything over the pull-side fence. If the hitters listen, this could be a chance to get the Twins to return to the middle of the pack when it comes to scoring runs, instead of being stuck at the bottom like they were last year. However, I must agree with Parker Hageman here in that the Twins shouldn’t mess with Josh Willingham. Parker has shown us that Willingham is already a pull hitter that appears to have a good chance of succeeding in Target Field, and if the Twins try to get him to chance his approach, we could have a repeat of David Ortiz on our hands. Basically, what I’m trying to say is that it looks like the Twins are going to try to pound it into the hitters’ heads that they shouldn’t treat home runs as their only positive result. If the pitch is inside, then feel free to yank it down the line. But if it’s on the outside, remember that hitting it up the middle or to the opposite field is going to be more likely to yield a better result than trying to yank that pitch as well. You know how Joe Mauer grounds out to second base so often? It can usually be attributed to him attempting to pull a pitch that was on the outer half of the plate. The Twins don’t project to compete for a playoff spot this season, but working on improving the offense simply by attacking the ballpark in a different way should help the team score more runs this season. Click here to view the article