TwinsTerritory

I was actually on the site last night and knew that it says that my offer for Syndergaard comes up way short. While I think that website is a ton of fun, I question the value of players in some cases. I'm actually excited to see some trades happen and look on their website to see if they're very accurate or not.

If the Twins are going to add a starter, I feel strongly that it needs to be someone that would slot into our top 3 for the playoffs and have control beyond 2019. That's a short list of available pitchers. Relievers on the other hand could be rentals or have team control, I just want a couple guys that are pitching well this year. My two trades happen to be for relievers with team control in 2020. I'm curious to hear other opinions of my trade packages. Fair trade value is so hard to determine. Twins trade Brusdar Graterol, Brent Rooker, Nick Gordon, and Cole Sands to the Mets for Noah Syndergaard. Twins trade Jorge Alcala and Gabriel Maciel to the Giants for Sam Dyson and Tony Watson.

I’d love to see a trade for Sonny Gray and a late inning reliever like Ottavino or Allen. Throw in an extension for Berrios and I’d consider it to be a pretty good off season. If things go well, they’re in the race and if not, you have some decent pieces to sell and a lot of money to spend again next off season. ( My sources tell me that Nolan Arenado has always wanted to play for a smaller market, even colder climate team)

Having your list as a starting point made it much easier to reason through. Couldn't imagine how much more difficult it would be to start from scratch!

I appreciate the time and thought Nick puts into his list. With his top 5 being fairly easy to guess (unless he has a man-crush on Willians), I'll take a shot at my list using his criteria as best I can. 20. Jake Cave, OF--insurance if Buxton/Kepler can't stay healthy or take the next step. 19. Michael Pineda, SP--including him in my top 20 because I see value as a potential top of the order pitcher, extension candidate, or trade candidate 18. Adalberto Mejia, LHP--he throws with his left hand and will probably have a decent MLB career, but not sold it will be with the Twins 17. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP--see Mejia, but with more team control and hopefully a higher ceiling 16. Nick Gordon, SS--I placed him a little higher as I still see a potential above average middle infielder and that has value 15. Wander Javier, SS--Appears to have a higher ceiling than Gordon, but is also a lot farther away 14. Trevor May, RHP--Can he stay healthy and find a role that gives him high value? Last fall was promising 13. Taylor Rogers, LHP--Has been pretty dominate for the past 2 years, excited for the future 12. Mitch Garver, C--if he can stick behind the plate (a fairly big if), his bat could make him an above average catcher and those are hard to find 11. Kyle Gibson, RHP--Hopefully last year was a sign that he has turned a corner and the Twins can lock him up for a few more years 10. Max Kepler, OF--really like him, but there are definitely concerns that his ceiling isn't as high as once hoped 9. Fernando Romero, RHP--has nasty stuff, but the Twins need to find a role that will allow him to show it 8. Miguel Sano, 3B--as seen in the forum, he is probably the most polarizing name on the list. I put him a little higher as I still see that 40 homer potential 7. Brusdar Graterol, RHP--sounds like he has all the tools to be an ace, but he's still a ways away 6. Eddie Rosario, OF--even if we've seen his peak, I'll take an above average corner outfielder for the next few years 5. Jorge Polanco, SS--see my comments above about middle infielders. He probably shouldn't play SS, but that bat will play at 2B 4. Byron Buxton, OF--I'm with Nick here. Even if he never reaches the full potential at the plate, that glove and those legs will keep him playing CF for a long time 3. Alex Kiriloff, OF--Hard to not buy in when every expert seems sold that he's the real deal. 2. Royce Lewis, SS--If the Twins play in a World Series in the next 10 years, it's probably because he is the face of the franchise 1. Jose Berrios, RHP--At the top of the list because he's made it to the show and seems to be getting better each year. I believe he can still become an ace and they are probably the hardest thing for a medium or small market franchise to find.

I believe the Twins can compete in 2019 and need to plan accordingly. 1. Trade Dozier, Lynn, Duke, Morrison, and Rodney for whatever you can get. 2. Listen to offers on Gibson, Escobar, and Pressley, but only trade if you get blown away by an offer. 3. DFA Grossman, Wilson, and Belisle. 4. Replace traded/DFA players with guys on the 40-man that may contribute in 2019. Dozier=Gordon Lynn=Romero Duke=Moya Morrison=Sano Rodney=Curtiss Grossman=Buxton Wilson=Adrianza Belisle=Busentiz 5. Attempt to extend Rosario, Berrios, & Buxton (if the price is right). I would also consider extending Gibson if the price is reasonable. 6. Call up Granite, Thorpe, Gonsalves, Little, May, Moya. Basically anyone on the 40 that has a future. 7. Sign a couple guys in the offseason and hope that Buxton, Sano, etc. figure it out because otherwise you'll be looking for a new job in two years.

I don't know that they would go for that, I just wanted to throw something out there as a starting point. I think I may value Javier a little more than you do. I see him as a borderline top 100 prospect. Maybe the better question is, what is McCutcheon worth to Pittsburgh? He has one year on his deal. If he has another mediocre year like 2016, his value is pretty low and Pittsburgh probably lets him walk at the end of the year. Or he has a decent year like 2017 and they can't afford to resign him unless he takes a "hometown discount". In a different post, I mentioned taking back Span in an Archer trade as a way to maybe save Tampa some money and lessen the prospect load heading to the Rays. In this case, I'd be willing to increase the prospects going to the Pirates if we could get McCutchen as well as Cole. I'm of the opinion that Kepler or Rosario are the guys we should be trying to use to headline a package for a top end starter.

If we can't sign Darvish, we've all heard a lot about what it would take to get Archer. I'm curious what the asking price would be for Cole and McCutchen. Would the price be less than Archer? How much less? How much should we be willing to give up for 1 year of McCutchen and 2 years of Cole? I'll throw out an idea and you can all rip me to shreds! Max Kepler, Wander Javier, Tyler Jay, and Kohl Stewart for McCutchen and Cole

My prediction, 2 trades today. One is expected and the other a surprise. Suzuki and Abad to the Indians for SS Erik Gonzalez Gonzalez is a 24 year old that may never be great offensively, but plays good defense and is probably ready to see what he can do at the major league level (but is blocked by Lindor) MLB.com has him as the Indians #9 prospect (after the Miller trade). Twins can always try to resign Kurt in the offseason if they don't think Murphy or Garver are ready. Nolasco and $12M to the Dodgers for C Keibert Ruiz The Twins eat 2/3 of Nolasco's remaining money and get a lottery ticket catching prospect in 18 year old Ruiz, a rotation spot for Berrios, and a small amount of salary relief. Dodgers get some rotation depth for about $5M over this year and next.

At the start of the conversation I thought each team only protecting 15 players would leave some pretty good players for the expansion teams. After checking that list from 1997, I was mistaken. Not very many players that had long (or successful) major league careers.

I would divide this into 4 groups. The first 3 groups seem like no-brainers. The 4th group would be my toughest decisions. Group 1--The elite young guys that would be chosen in a heartbeat if left unprotected. 1. 3B/DH Miguel Sano 2. OF Byron Buxton 3. SP Jose Berrios 4. OF Max Kepler Group 2--The veterans that have proven to be MLB caliber starters. Even an expansion team needs a couple guys that fans have heard of. This is assuming that Mauer must be protected. This is a disappointingly short list!! 5. 1B Joe Mauer 6. 2B Brian Dozier Group 3--The second tier of prospects that may very well get picked. Some of these guys have had some struggles or injuries, but they're too valuable to risk losing. 7. SS Nick Gordon 8. SP Stephen Gonsalves 9. IF Jorge Polanco 10. RP Nick Burdi 11. SP Kohl Stewart 12. RP JT Chargois Group 4--The tough decisions. In my world, here is where you're doing a lot of guessing (what route will the expansion team take, who has the highest ceiling) and making decisions about when the Twins are building for. I'm an optimist and think that things can change very quickly with a few young guys developing, so I'm keeping a couple guys that I think can be part of a playoff team in 2018. 13. RP Trevor May 14. SP Kyle Gibson 15. SP Tyler Duffey Who do I expect to lose? Here would be my next 9 players. Following Seth's rules, I could protect 6 of these guys as the draft went on and I'd likely lose 3 of them. 16. OF Eddie Rosario 17. OF Adam Brett Walker 18. IF Eduardo Nunez 19. RP Taylor Rogers 20. SP Lewis Thorpe 21. RP Alex Meyer 22. OF Daniel Palka 23. SP Fernando Romero 24. RP Ryan Pressley

Vargas is an interesting case to me. If Park proves to be a major league caliber baseball player, is there really any scenario (outside of a Park/Mauer injury) in which Vargas is valuable to the Twins? Mauer would really have to struggle to lose a spot in the line-up and by the time that happens there is a good chance that Sano may have to transition to a 1B/DH type. This leaves me with a couple questions (both with the assumption that Park can hit). 1. How many options does Vargas have left? 2. If Vargas rakes at AAA, does he have value in a trade?

You stole a few of my ideas, but here are my 5 surprises for 2016. 1. Ervin Santana comes out of the gate strong and has 12 wins and an ERA under 3.00 at the All-star break. He doesn't make the All-star team which upsets many Twins fans and #smellbaseball is a trending topic in Minneapolis for about a week. 2. Byron Buxton breaks camp with the big league team and after a slow start, winds up hitting .290 with 15 home runs and 45 stolen bases. He runs away with AL rookie of the year honors. 3. Alex Meyer is sent down to AAA in April, but comes back soon and ends the season with an ERA under 2.50 and a K/9 of over 10. He also picks up 10 saves in August/September after Glen Perkins is traded to the 1st place Indians at the trade deadline. 4. Miguel Sano learns to play a decent right field and it has no impact on him at the plate. He finishes in the top 5 of the American League in each of the following categories: Home runs: 39 (5th) Walks: 105 (4th) Intentional walks: 15 (3rd) OBP: .380 (4th) OPS: .930 (5th) RBI: 111 (4th) Strikeouts: 218 (1st) MVP voting: 5th 5. Eduardo Escobar is the Twins 2nd All-star representative (along w/ Sano). Escobar shows that the 2nd half of 2015 wasn't a fluke as he hits .275 with 16 home runs and an OPS over .760 Bonus offseason 2016 prediction: If you read #3 above, you realize that I don't think the Twins will be in the race throughout all of 2016. However, with the progress made by Buxton, Sano, Meyer, and other young players, the Twins are the trendy pick to win the AL Central in 2017 and Vegas puts their over/under at 91 wins. Posters on Twins Daily are livid that Terry Ryan doesn't break the bank to sign Stephen Strasburg and Aroldis Chapman, as they are sure that they are the two missing pieces to a 2017 world championship.

For the win-now group, maybe we should just send a package centered around Gibson to the Rockies for Carlos Gonzalez and a package including Milone to the Nationals for Storen. This group would probably win more games in 2016. Plouffe, Park, and Mauer could rotate between 1B/DH, and cover Sano's days off. 1. Buxton CF 2. Rosario LF 3. Sano 3B 4. Gonzalez RF 5. Dozier 2B 6. Park DH 7. Mauer 1B 8. Murphy C 9. Escobar SS Bench: Suzuki, Nunez, Santana, Plouffe 1. Santana 2. Hughes 3. May 4. Duffey 5. Nolasco/Berrios Cl: Storen Set-up: Perkins, Jepsen Middle: Fien, Tonkin, O'Rourke, Pressley

I can't imagine the Twins running out a Sano-Rosario-Arcia outfield more than 5 times. I would agree with Seth that it's more likely that Rosario stays in a corner spot and Santana plays a lot of CF until Buxton is ready (hopefully out of ST). I can see why the Twins are considering adding an OF, but I'm really concerned that it becomes a negative if they feel feel forced to keep the guy when Buxton is ready. Rajai Davis is a fine 4th OF on a good team, but who comes off the roster when Buxton is ready? As far as starting pitching, it's nice to be arguing about depth (even if some of it is Ricky Nolasco). It wasn't long ago that we were giving starts to guys that barely belonged in AAA. I really think TR needs to look at the possibility of trading Milone. I actually don't mind him in our rotation, but we need to make room for Duffey/Berrios and trading him looks like the best option (unless Gibson could bring something big).

Interesting that he said he'll sign an outfielder. I'm guessing it will be some sort of defensive guy like Robinson/Shafer. Is it insurance in CF if Buxton needs time in AAA? Does it mean we've given up on Arcia and/or Santana?

Here we are a little more than a month later and not much has changed. While I think many will be disappointed, I think Terry Ryan only has a few things left on his to-do list for the off-season. #1-Sign a reliable relief option, preferably left-handed. #2-Gauge the trade value of his glut of starting pitchers. (Gibson has decent value, Milone has small value, Nolasco has negative value) #3-Wait to be blown away by an offer for Plouffe (He better hope the Angels are desperate) My predictions would be that #1 happens (he signs Bastardo to 3/$15.5M), #2 happens when he trades Milone for a mid-level prospect, and #3 never materializes so he decides to go ahead with the Sano OF experiment. That would leave the 25 man roster looking something like this. This would put the payroll around $111M. C-Suzuki ($6.0M), Murphy ($0.55M) 1B-Mauer ($23M), Park ($3M) 2B-Dozier ($3M) SS-Escobar ($1.8M) 3B-Plouffe ($7.7M) 3B/RF-Sano ($0.55M) LF-Rosario ($0.55M) CF-Buxton ($0.55M) RF/LF-Arcia ($0.55M) Utl-Santana ($0.55M), Nunez ($1.5M) #1-3 SP-Santana ($13.5M), Hughes ($9.2M), Gibson ($0.55M) #4/5 SP options-Nolasco ($12M), Duffey ($0.55M), Berrios ($0.55M) Late inning RP-Perkins ($6.3M), Jepsen ($6.0M), Bastardo ($5.5M), May ($0.55M) Middle inning RP-Fien ($2.2M), Tonkin ($0.55M), Pressly ($0.55M) I think the best case scenario with this roster is 88-90 wins and staying in the playoff hunt until the final weekend. The worst case scenario is probably 72-74 wins and a few guys getting shopped at the trade deadline. My prediction is 85-77 and they miss the wild card by 1 game.

My idea of where to go next if I'm Terry Ryan. Using some estimates this would put the payroll at about $112 million (not including the Park posting fee or the cash from the Padres). #1--Trade Nolasco to SD for Melvin Upton Jr., Brandon Maurer, and cash ($3M) Both teams dump bad contracts that don't fit on their roster and the Twins pick up a reliever for taking on more money. #2--Trade Plouffe to LAA for Jose Alvarez, Joe Gatto, and a low level prospect This assumes TR is bluffing about Sano playing outfield. Twins get a solid lefty for the pen and one of the Angels top SP prospects #3--sign Shawn Kelley to a 3/$13.5M contract Has put together a nice run and is a little cheaper than the big RP names on the FA market Opening Day Roster Lineup 1. Buxton CF 2. Mauer 1B 3. Sano 3B 4. Dozier 2B 5. Park DH 6. Rosario LF 7. Arcia RF 8. Escobar SS 9. Murphy C Bench Suzuki C Upton OF Santana UTL Nunez UTL Rotation 1. Santana 2. Hughes 3. Gibson 4. May 5. Millone Bullpen Perkins Jepsen Kelley Maurer Alvarez Tonkin O'Rourke AAA (waiting for spot) Duffey Berrios Meyer Kepler Polanco Vargas

A lot of really good players on that list, and Hank Blalock. How on earth did Hank Blalock hit 32 home runs and drive in 110? Baseball is hard to understand sometimes!