DocBauer

Take some time to watch Ballplayer: Pelotero during quarantine. Everyone has plenty of that right now and remembering the mega-prospect a teenage Miguel Sano was should not be lost on anyone. Now today, on his 27th birthday, we get to look back on what’s been accomplished.
 
Through parts of five Major League seasons Sano has amassed 8.5 career fWAR. He was in the running for a Rookie of the Year award, has made an All-Star Game, and surpassed the 100-career homer plateau. He’s also been asked to play right field, suffered significant injury, and experienced a demotion from the big leagues all the way back to Single-A.
 
To suggest Miguel Sano’s career with the Twins has been eventful would be putting it lightly.
 
Here’s the thing though, we’ve been given more than a glimpse into the reality that the mega-prospect was worthy of all that hoopla. No, he’s not the skinny shortstop that he was way back in those Dominican days, but that was also never the expectation. He’s since moved from the hot corner to first base and plays the part of a hulking corner bat. He’s the definitive member of a team dubbed the “Bomba Squad” and his efforts of late rewarded him to the tune of a $30MM contract extension.
 
It would always be hard for a guy with Sano’s profile to create substantial value in multiple avenues of the game. He’s an average defender at best, and he now plays a non-premium position. Should he assume Nelson Cruz’s designated hitter role in the years ahead, that becomes even more of an accepted reality. At the plate though, he’s one of the most feared hitters in the game, and since buying into his ability the production has only taken steps forward.
 
The argument I’ve always made in relation to Sano is that there was never a talent issue. He’s got the ability to be one of the best power hitters in the whole sport. What has always held him back was the reliance on that fact, rather than the execution and effort in order to accomplish it. Maybe it was the guidance of Nelson Cruz, maybe it was the leadership of Rocco Baldelli, or maybe it was Sano himself deciding he was done settling; any or all of those things could be true, but we’re at a point where the Twins are getting the best version of a player they’ve long hoped for.
 

 
Sano has already vaulted himself up organization leaderboards. Only Tom Brunansky had hit more home runs through their age 26 season than that of Sano. He’s got the ability and time to become Minnesota second best home run hitter ever, and he’s already suggested that his desire would be to play out his entire career in Minnesota.
 
We’re way too far off to make any determinations regarding the dust settling, but I think it’s pretty hard not to be excited about what is yet to come. Finding ways to play himself out of a lineup spot, or lacking commitment to produce at anything but his best, are both hopefully behind him. If those realities remain true, then the entirety of the Twins organization will be in store to reap the benefits of this guy for many years to come.
 
Happy 27th Miguel, and here’s to lots of fun ahead.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

TWINS 2020 SEASON SIMULATION


 
Game 11, 4-6-20
This is a huge series early in the season as the undefeated Cleveland Indians are traveling to Minneapolis to face the 2nd place Twins who are 4 games back. This is the Twins chance to make back some games. Hopefully Cleveland's 10-0 start is due to an easy schedule. The match pits Odorizzi up against Emmanuel Clase. Below we will highlight the scoring innings.

Bottom of the 2nd - Sano walked, Buxton launched one to left center scoring the "speedy" Sano from 1st. Kepler walked and then Arraez hit one deep into the hole at 2nd and getting by Mike Freeman scoring Buxton. Twins up 2-0
Bottom of the 3rd - Hunter Wood came in relieving Clase at the start of the half inning. Tough outing for Clase. The pitching change didn't help much. Cruz lead off the inning with a single, and Donaldson pushed him to third due to an error by Carlos Santana. Sano grounded out but knocked in Cruz. Twins 3-0
Top of the 6th - Odorizzi finally falters just a little bit. Santana walked to start the inning, followed by a Roberto Perez single moving Santana to third. Odorizzi struck out Puig. Then Cesar Hernandez singled scoring Santana. From there, Odorizzi got out of the jam getting the final 2 outs. Twins 3-1
Bottom of the 6th - Rosario wasn't going to let the Indians get closer, and led off the inning with a HR to right field. Twins 4-1
Top of the 7th - Odorizzi gave up a double to Freeman and then a walk (64 Game score, quality start), and Sergio Romo came in to get the last out of the inning, no runs scored. Twins 4-1
Bottom of the 7th - Nick Wittgren relieved Wood. Once again the Twins immediately capitalized. Polanco doubled deep to right, just missing a Home Run, Cruz walked and then Sano ended his nice game with a 2 RBI triple. Twins 6-1
Top of the 9th - Baldelli kept Romo in the game to keep fresh arms. Ramirez singled. He struck out Freeman. Lindor got a single moving Ramirez to second. But Romo got a hot Carlos Santana to ground out with a game ending double play. Odorizzi gets the win (2-0). Romo gets the junk save. Cleveland gets their first loss of the season by way of the TWINS!

Twins win 6-1
https://www.dynastyleaguebaseball.com/GameRecap.aspx?OrgID=116202&GameID=dbcc347798bd4cebae87684dd81e581d&ReportType=1
 
Twins 7-4 _ 2nd Place, 3 games behind Cleveland
 
Other League News
Not much to say other than a PERFECT GAME. Madison Bumgarner and Arizona up against Bumgarner's former team, San Fran. 27 up, 27 down with 12 Ks. You may say, oh this simulation pushes these type of results. I have played dynasty league baseball for 25 years be it rolling dice, the pc cd-rom sim, to the now online sim...I have easily played over 1,000 games of this, and have NEVER seen a perfect game until this one. I've only seen a handful of no-hitters. This is super rare. I posted on the game's FB page, and they re-posted it because it is so rare. Pretty awesome. Link to see the box score and recap:
https://www.dynastyleaguebaseball.com/GameRecap.aspx?OrgID=116202&GameID=6aa5c46d80bb430eacf93555ace770eb&ReportType=1
 
Twins 2020 season Player Stats:
https://www.dynastyleaguebaseball.com/TeamStats.aspx?OrgID=116202&TeamID=10&Report=0&GameType=0&Splits=0

Rich Hill Elbow Surgery Discussion
Heezy 1323
 
Happy Supposed-To-Be Opening Day everyone. Since the baseball season is (unfortunately) on hold due to the coronavirus pandemic, about the only recent baseball-related news to report has been that both Chris Sale and Noah Syndergaard (in addition to Luis Severino earlier this spring) are in need of Tommy John surgery. I covered some information about Sale’s injury and some discussion regarding techniques used in UCL reconstruction in previous blog posts. In the comment section of the latter post, TD user wabene asked an astute question about Rich Hill’s surgery and how it is similar or different from typical UCL reconstruction. Hill’s surgery is indeed different from a typical Tommy John surgery, and I thought a post about it might be interesting to some readers.
 
As usual, my disclaimer: I am not an MLB team physician. I have not seen or examined Hill or reviewed his imaging studies. I am not speaking on behalf of the Twins or MLB. I am only planning to cover general information about this type of surgery and my take on what it might mean.
 
Twins Daily contributor Lucas Seehafer posted an excellent article about Hill’s surgery back in January that was a good look into the surgery basics and some background about UCL primary repair. There was some additional discussion in the comments as well. Since Lucas did such a nice job covering the surgery, I won’t go into excessive detail in this post, but I’ll give my version of the basics, and then cover how Hill’s surgery is similar and different.
 
Basics of UCL Primary Repair
 
As covered in my post about Sale, the UCL is a strong ligament at the inside of the elbow that resists the stretching forces that occur when trying to throw a baseball. Obviously, hurling a baseball 90+ mph can take a toll on this ligament and it can, in some cases, result in a tear. These tears can occur at the top (humeral) end, bottom (ulnar) end or in the middle (called midsubstance).
 


 
The figure above is from a study we did when I was in fellowship indicating the location of the ligament injury in 302 patients who had undergone surgery with Dr. Andrews. The most common areas of injury are at either end of the ligament, with the humeral end being slightly more common (at least in this series) than the ulnar end. These patients all underwent UCL reconstruction, which is the standard operation to treat these injuries when non-surgery treatments have failed to result in adequate improvement.
 
More recently (I would say within the past 5-7 years), there has been emerging interest in performing a different operation for a subset of these patients called UCL Primary Repair. This operation differs from UCL Reconstruction in that when the repair is chosen, the injured ligament is reattached back to the bone at the site of the injury using special anchors. There is typically also a strong stitch called an ‘internal brace’ that is passed across the joint along the path of the repaired UCL as well. I often refer to this internal brace as a ‘seat belt’ stitch. The idea behind the internal brace is that early in the healing process, before it has re-developed strong attachments to the bone, the ligament is susceptible to reinjury which could cause failure to heal (or compromised strength of healing). The internal brace (theoretically) helps protect the healing ligament and allows for development of a stronger attachment back to the bone. Once healing has occurred, the internal brace is thought to act like ‘rebar’, adding some strength to the ligament (though the exact magnitude of this contribution is unclear).
 


 
This figure illustrates the repair technique with the blue ‘internal brace’ also in place.
 
This is different from UCL reconstruction, where tissue from elsewhere in the body (typically either a forearm tendon called palmaris or a hamstring tendon called gracilis) is passed through bone tunnels and used to create a ‘new’ ligament.
 
One of the reasons for the interest in primary repair of the UCL has to do with the length of time needed for recovery from UCL reconstruction. As many of us know from having watched numerous pitchers undergo (and subsequently return from) Tommy John surgery, there is usually around 12-18 months needed for full return to pitching at the major league level. There are a number of reasons for this long time frame, but a major contributor is that this is the amount of time needed for the graft to fully heal. Recall, we are taking a tendon (which normally attaches muscle to bone) and putting it in the place of a ligament (which normally attaches one bone to another bone). Though tendons and ligaments are similar, there are differences in their microscopic structure. Over time, as the graft starts to heal and have new stresses placed on it (namely throwing), it begins to change its microscopic structure and actually becomes a ligament. In fact, there have been animal studies done that have shown that a biopsy of a sheep ACL graft (which was originally a tendon) over time evolves into what is nearly indistinguishable from a ligament. We call this process ‘ligamentization’, and it is probably the most important part of what allows the new ligament to withstand the stresses of throwing.
 
This process, however, takes time. And because of this, the recovery from UCL reconstruction is lengthy. With primary repair of the UCL, this process of conversion of the tendon to ligament is not necessary since we are repairing the patient’s own ligament back to its normal position. Some healing is still required; namely the healing of the detached ligament back to the bone where it tore away. But this process does not typically require the same amount of time as the ligamentization process.
 
So why, then, wouldn’t everyone who needed surgery for this injury just have a primary repair? In practice, there are a few issues that require consideration when choosing what surgery is most suitable for a particular athlete. The first brings us back to the first graph from this post regarding location of injury to the UCL. It turns out that asking an injured ligament to heal back to bone is a much different thing than asking a torn ligament to heal back to itself. Specifically, trying to heal a tear in the midsubstance of the UCL (which requires the two torn edges of the ligament to heal back together) results in a much less strong situation than a ligament healing to bone. That makes those injuries that involve the midsubstance of the UCL (about 12% in our study) not suitable for primary repair. It can only be realistically considered in those athletes who have an injury at one end of the ligament or the other.
 


 
In addition, there is significant consideration given to the overall condition of the ligament. One can imagine that repairing a nearly pristine ligament that has a single area of injury (one end pulled away from the bone) is a different situation than trying to successfully repair a ligament that has a poorer overall condition. Imagine looking at a piece of rope that is suspending a swing from a tree branch- if the rope is basically brand new, but for some reason breaks at its attachment to the swing, it seems logical that reattaching the rope to the swing securely is likely to result in a well-functioning swing with less cause for concern about repeat failure. Conversely, if you examine the rope in the same situation and notice that it is thin and frayed in a number of places, but just happened to fail at its attachment to the swing, you would be much less likely to try and repair the existing rope. More likely, you would go to the store and buy a new rope to reattach the swing (analogous to reconstruction). Similarly, when we are considering surgical options, we examine the overall health of the ligament on the MRI scan, and also during the surgery to determine whether repair is suitable or whether a reconstruction is needed. If there is a significant amount of damage to the UCL on MRI, primary repair may not be presented to the athlete as an option.
 
Also, consideration is given to the particulars of an athlete’s situation. For example, let’s say I see a high school junior pitcher who has injured his elbow during the spring season. Let’s also say that he wants to return to pitching for his senior year but has no interest in playing baseball competitively beyond high school. In this case, the athlete is trying to return relatively quickly (the next spring) and is not planning to place long term throwing stress on the UCL beyond the next season. If this athlete fails to improve without surgery (such that all agree a surgery is needed), and his MRI is favorable- he is a good candidate for UCL primary repair. This would hopefully allow him to return in a shorter time frame (6-9 months) for his senior season, which would not be possible if a reconstruction was performed. Indeed, this is the exact type of patient that first underwent this type of surgery by Dr. Jeff Dugas at American Sports Medicine Institute in Birmingham, AL. Dr. Dugas is a protégé of Dr. James Andrews and has been instrumental in pioneering the research behind UCL primary repair.
 
As you can probably imagine, the longer players (and pitchers in particular) play baseball, the more likely it is that there is an accumulation of damage to the UCL over time. This is the factor that most commonly eliminates the option of primary repair of the UCL in many of these players.
 
So how does any of this relate to Twins pitcher Rich Hill? Let’s discuss.
 
Hill underwent UCL reconstruction of his left elbow in 2011. He was able to successfully return from his surgery but has certainly faced his share of injury concerns since then (as described nicely in Lucas Seehafer’s article). This past season he began to have elbow pain once again and was placed on the 60-day IL as a result. He then underwent surgery on the elbow in October 2019 by Dr. Dugas (noted above). The procedure performed was a repair procedure, but in this case instead of repairing Hill’s own UCL, the repair was performed to reattach the previously placed UCL graft. I don’t have any first-hand knowledge of Hill’s surgery, but my best guess is that the technique was very similar to what was described above for a typical primary repair with internal brace. To my knowledge, this has not been attempted before in a major league pitcher.
 
There is data showing a relatively good return to play rate with primary repair that is very similar to UCL reconstruction. However, most UCL repair patients are much younger than Hill and the vast majority that have been studied to this point are not major league pitchers. There are a couple of ways you can interpret this data when it comes to Hill. One perspective is that he had a repair of a ‘ligament’ (his UCL graft) that was only 8 years old (since his TJ was done in 2011), and as such it likely doesn’t have as much cumulative damage as his UCL might otherwise have if he had not had any prior surgery. An opposing perspective would be that this is his second UCL operation, and even though his most recent surgery was not a reconstruction, the data that would be most applicable to him would be data regarding athletes who have undergone revision UCL reconstruction (meaning they have had a repeat TJ procedure after the UCL failed a second time). This data is less optimistic. Most studies would put the rate of return to play after normal UCL reconstruction around 85% (depending on exactly how you define successful return to play). In most studies, the rate of return to play after revision UCL reconstruction is much lower, around 60-70%. There are two MLB pitchers that I am aware of that have undergone primary repair of the UCL (Seth Maness and Jesse Hahn). Maness has yet to return to MLB and Hahn didn’t fare very well in 6 appearances in 2019.
 
Finally, my last input on this topic as it pertains to Hill is to imagine the specific position he is/was in. He is likely nearing the end of his career (he turned 40 in March 2020). He had a significant elbow injury that was not getting better without surgery. Presumably his choices were four:
1) Continue trying to rehab without surgery and see how it goes, understanding that the possibility exists that rehab may not be successful. (Perhaps a PRP injection could be tried)
2) Retire.
3) Undergo revision UCL reconstruction with its associated 12-18 month recovery timeline, likely putting him out for all of 2020 with a possible return in 2021 at age 41.
4) Undergo this relatively new primary repair procedure with the possibility of allowing him to return to play for part of the 2020 season, but with a much less known track record. In fact, a basically completely unknown track record for his specific situation.
 
If that doesn’t seem like a list filled with great options, it’s because it isn’t. If I’m being honest, I think Hill probably made the best choice (presuming that he still has a desire to play), even with the unknowns regarding his recovery. He obviously couldn’t have seen this virus pandemic coming, but that would seem to make the choice even better since he is not missing any games (because none are being played).
 
For Hill’s and the Twins sake, I hope his recovery goes smoothly and he is able to return and pitch at the high level he is used to. He sure seems like a warrior and is certainly the kind of person that is easy to root for. But based on what we know about his situation, there is an element of uncertainty. If I were Hill’s surgeon, I likely would have told him that he had around a 50-60% chance to return and pitch meaningful innings after this type of surgery. Let’s hope the coin falls his way, and also that we can figure out how to best handle this virus and get everyone back to their normal way of life as soon and safely as possible.
 
Thanks for reading. Be safe everyone. Feel free to leave any questions in the comment section.

For all intents and purposes, it appears as if the mega-deal involving the Minnesota Twins, Boston Red Sox, and Los Angeles Dodgers is dead. At least as it was initially constructed.
 
To quickly recap: Los Angeles would have received outfielder Mookie Betts and pitcher David Price from the Red Sox, Boston would have received outfielder Alex Verdugo from the Dodgers and pitcher Brusdar Graterol from the Twins, and Minnesota would have received pitcher Kenta Maeda from the Dodgers.
 
But, again, the trade is reportedly holding on via life support as the Boston Red Sox - amongst blow back that they did not receive enough value in return for their All-World right fielder - balked after obtaining the medical records of Graterol from the Twins, according to the Star Tribune’s LaVelle E. Neal III.
 
What has been most confusing during this whole ordeal is deciphering why Boston became so concerned about Graterol’s health and how they justified that this meant they required more trade compensation in return, particularly from the Twins. After all, Graterol’s injury history isn’t exactly a secret; the 21-year-old underwent Tommy John surgery when he was a teen and missed a chunk of time during the 2019 season while recovering from impingement in his right shoulder.
 
According to Neal (via the Boston Globe), after the deal was agreed to in principle, the Red Sox were provided Graterol’s medical files, which “[included] magnetic resonance imaging exams and other images, trainer notes and virtually every detail about a player’s medical history since his entry into professional baseball.” It was apparently these images and notes that caused Boston’s knees to buckle.
 
So what could these images and notes have revealed that would cause such concern on the part of the Red Sox? This is where the landscape gets potentially foggy.
 
Advanced imaging techniques - such as magnetic resonance, radiographic pictures, CAT scans, etc. - provide great value in diagnosing athletic injuries. While athletic trainers, physical therapists, and orthopedic surgeons are trained to diagnose injuries by hands-on techniques, the severity and extent of the injury as well as the specific structures involved cannot be determined with 100% certainty - or at least near 100% certainty - without the use of imaging.
 
However, the use of advanced imaging often reveals silent “pathology” - or incidental findings; I use pathology with quotations as perhaps the more correct term would be anatomical variation. If anatomical variation is detected, but it is absent of pain and dysfunction - the characteristics used to define injury - is the athlete truly injured? Do these findings predict risk of future injury?
 
These questions are difficult to answer with any amount of certainty as the first is largely philosophical whereas the second has yet to be sufficiently researched. So, perhaps these questions should be reframed in this manner: Absent of imaging, would a team be hesitant to acquire a player of Graterol’s caliber knowing what they know about his injury history? The obvious answer is no as the Red Sox were willing to do just that as late as last week.
 
It would be one thing to conclude, as both the Twins and Red Sox apparently did, that Graterol would be best off as a reliever in the long-term based on his past injury history. It is entirely different to use his past medical history and images to demand further trade compensation - in such a public way, no less - after the deal has already been agreed upon.
 
As the linked clinical commentary from the Journal of Orthopedic and Sports Physical Therapy above states, it is common to find pain free, fully functional anatomical variation in the rotator cuff and glenohumeral labrum of the baseball pitcher’s throwing shoulder. Brusdar Graterol, an intriguing talent and 21-year-old kid, has had his health dragged through the mud based on past images and notes that may or may not have an impact on his future health and performance. That is what has been most disappointing about this entire process.

Late last night we heard rumblings of a deal held up due to a questionable physical between the players exchanged with the Dodgers, Red Sox and Twins. This morning we found this to be true, as Ken Rosenthal confirmed. The deal is currently in limbo, as we wait to find out the next step between the teams exchanging Mookie Betts, David Price, Kenta Maeda and Brusdar Graterol.
 
Rosenthal reports today that the physical in question is that of Brusdar Graterol's. What is truly ridiculous is the wording given behind the hold up. Essentially Rosenthal reports that the Red Sox have decided that they see Graterol as a reliever long term. Totally fine. What's the next step the Red Sox take however? Of course, they're asking for more.
 
Graterol was already reported to be Boston's number one prospect if the deal went through. The 21 year old flamethrower hovered around the 3-5 mark in the Twins system. They also received Alex Verdugo, a 23 year old who put up 2.2 wins in only 106 games last season. It may not seem like a lot for Mookie Betts and David Price, but Boston stands to lose Bett's for nothing but a draft pick. As for Price, his injury history is arguably worse than Graterol's, with the difference being that he's 34 and owed almost $100m over the next 3 years, all to be paid by the Dodgers if the deal goes through.
 
The Red Sox have watched teams around them improve all offseason. Meanwhile, it seems that their goal has been to offload Betts. They even brought the Twins in on it to be a third team to make things work. They likely identified a piece they wanted in return, ultimately being Graterol. His injury history was public knowledge up to this point. The Twins even announced that they were using him in the bullpen going forward. Seems pretty ridiculous to me that they get down to dotting the i's and crossing the t's and all of a sudden have an issue with all of this.
 
This leads me to my point for writing this other than to rant about the Sox trying to gouge our Twins farm system. I love Kenta Maeda and was very excited to have him pitching in a Twins jersey. That being said, he's projected to slot in as our number 3. Very valuable, but there's a cap on that value. I also love Graterol and was sad to see him go. I believed it was a fair trade, though I recognized that there was a chance the Twins already regret the trade down the line.
 
The Twins were already projected to win the Central fairly handily before acquiring Maeda. Maeda however, didn't even move the needle that much.
 

 
The Twins were trying to be active in the trade market, but this isn't a bona fide ace that's fallen into their lap. The front office shouldn't be pressured to feel like this is a deal that needs to be done at all costs. Worst case scenario, Graterol is throwing 100 mph gas out of the bullpen to open the season and we continue to pursue trades elsewhere.
 
For the Red Sox to ask for more than Verdugo and what would be their number 1 pitching prospect, a 21 year old flamethrower who's already showcased his ability to get outs at the Major League level, is ridiculous. They're likely sitting in 3rd place in the east in 2020 with little salary space to work with (which they suddenly care about). They're in no position to decide a top prospect's future mid trade and demand more.
 
If the Red Sox want to play hard ball and pretend they hold all the cards, I say let them. Let them try to compete with the Yankees and Rays who make active attempts to get better while the Sox sit dormant for the next 3 offseasons while being weighed down by the remaining $96m owed to the 34 year old David Price. Let them enjoy one last season of Mookie Betts before cashing him in for a draft pick. Don't offer another piece, whether it's cash or a prospect. If Graterol is wearing a Twins jersey to start 2020, that's far from a failure.

Today the Pittsburgh Pirates swapped Sterling Marte to the Arizona Diamondbacks for a pair of prospects. In completing that deal, it’s another reminder that the trade market has yet to truly take off, and it makes a good amount of sense that the Minnesota Twins be involved.
 
We still have yet to see any organizations move a big pitcher. Nolan Arenado looks to be on his way out of Colorado, and Mookie Betts could certainly be headed somewhere else if Boston is ready to deal. Going into the offseason it appeared that the Twins were well positioned to make a move, and nothing has changed to suggest otherwise.
 
Right now, there’s a decent level of redundancy in Minnesota’s farm system, and there’s a strong mix of impact prospects alongside depth talent. The organization is not only going to have a substantial amount of decisions to make on the 40-man roster prior to 2021, but there’s going to be more than a handful that are extremely difficult.
Expecting the Twins to land either Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg would have always been a pipe dream at best. Zack Wheeler and Hyun-Jin Ryu would have completed Derek Falvey’s quest for an impact arm, but one was an upside play while the other has significant injury concerns. Doling out cash on either could have went up in smoke, and the long-term effects may be more costly.
 
This is where we should again begin thinking about the trade market. After Josh Donaldson was signed by Minnesota, it appeared to put a bow on their offseason. Realistically though, neither Rich Hill nor Homer Bailey represent the necessary addition to calm concern out of the gate. Bailey is more a Kyle Gibson replacement than anything, and Hill’s impact may not be felt until October. Just recently clearing the previous high in payroll, there should still be room to squeak out a few more dollars.
 
We haven’t entered a scenario in which it becomes necessary to move either Royce Lewis or Alex Kirilloff but listening on offers and pursuing arms can be done knowing everything else is taken care of. Donaldson is more than an exciting addition on his own, but he wasn’t brought here for four years to sit back and carry the load. Minnesota made an aggressive move like that with the idea that talent can be supplemented as a whole and getting the entire 26-man help is a must.
 
I have no idea if the Twins are content with the rotation as it stands today. It’s certainly not in shambles, but there’s also clear opportunities for growth. Maybe they’ll play a handful of games before deciding that something else needs to be done. What I do know is that making a trade remains a very sensible action, the assets are there, the timing is right, and the market is beginning to reveal itself.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

In his fourth offseason at the head of the Minnesota Twins, there are two words Derek Falvey wishes he could take back, "Impact Pitching".
 
It's all the casual Twins fan has been talking about this offseason, up until the Josh Donaldson signing, of course.
 
The fact of the matter is that the Twins were agressive in pursuing their "Plan A" options for the offseason in free agents Ryu, Bumgarner, and Wheeler. It just didn't work out, mostly because of forces outside of their control.
 
To me, the Josh Donaldson signing signaled that the front office is pushing their chips to the middle of the table in 2020. At 34 years old, Donaldson might only have two years of elite production left. Now might be the time to capitalize in making that final offseason move for "impact pitching" right?; not necessarily.
 
The Twins made a pair of early offseason moves to their staff with Odorizzi accepting their Qualifying Offer, Pineda coming back on a two year deal, and a pair of New Years Eve signings in Rich Hill and Homer Bailey.
 
There is no doubt the Opening Day pitching staff still has some question marks but on paper this is a fine starting 5.
 
The question marks of course come from Pineda who is suspended for the first 39 games of 2020 and Rich Hill, who had "primary and revision" surgery and won't be back until "June or July".
 
Per Fangraphs Team Depth Charts 2020 Projections, the Twins starting staff projects to have a total WAR of 11.6, ranked 21st in MLB. Now, like I mentioned, this is because of the starts that should be made by Pineda and Hill in April - June will have to be made up by the likes of Dobnak, Smeltzer, and Thorpe. Fangraphs projects that this trio will pitch 169 total innings - which may be too many for a team with deep playoff run aspirations. But if things shake out like the Twins hope, they will have a fine starting 5 for the second half of the year, not even factoring in a potential July 31st trade. But they have to get there first. That's the key.
 


 
As of right now there are two options the Twins have to add to their existing rotation, trade or sign a remaining free agent.
 
Sure, trading for a Robbie Ray, Matthew Boyd, or Jon Gray would be nice. However, it seems that with each day closer to Spring Training, that possibility dwindles.
 
What if they went a different direction...
 
What if they were able to sign a pitcher with starting experience who can bridge the gap in April and May to fill in until Pineda's return?
 
What if once he is not needed in the rotation anymore he can be added to the bullpen to strengthen the back end of baseball games?
 
What if he actually happens to be a very good reliever?
 
Enter, Collin McHugh.
 
Collin McHugh - The Starter
 
In 2016 - 2017, McHugh started 45 games for the Astros.
 
In 248 innings, McHugh posted a 4.14 ERA, 3.92 FIP, and a 8.7 k/9.
 


 
He missed quite a bit of time in 2017 with right shoulder tendonitis. In 2018 he pitched only in the bullpen (more on that in a minute).
 
In 2019, the Astros put McHugh in the rotation on Opening Day. On the surface his numbers are ugly as a starter.
 
In 8 starts, he posted a 6.37 ERA in 41 innings with a 9.2 k/9 allowing an OPS of .808 (yikes).
 


 
But let's break this down a bit and only focus on the first six starts he made in 2019, as that really is all the Twins would need out of him before Pineda is back on May 10th.
 


 
McHugh only had one rough start. If you eliminate that outing, 5 of those 6 starts were very good. He threw 28.2 innings, struck out 36 batters, had three quality starts (one out away from 4), and allowed 8 runs - a 2.51 ERA.
 
That tells a much different story.
 
Collin McHugh - The Reliever
 
As stated earlier, in 2018 McHugh became a full time reliever. He was outstanding posting a 1.99 ERA, 2.72 FIP, a 11.7 k/9 in 72.1 innings. He also pitched in 4 playoff games that year allowing zero runs in 4 innings.
 
After he was done starting in 2019, he went back to the Astros bullpen posting a 2.67 ERA, a 10.7 k/9, in 27 appearances across 33.2 innings.
 
 


 
Solid.
 
Do I think the Twins still need an "impact" SP to propel them to postseason success? Sure. Do I think the July 2019 Twins rotation could be very solid? Of course. But, they have to get there. Collin McHugh would help the Twins do that and add depth to an already established bullpen core for the second half of the season. A very hybrid and cost effective approach to bolstering the Opening Day Twins rotation. They can always wait to make their "impact pitching" move until the July 31st deadline. Signing McHugh would allow them the flexibility to do that.

It’s Christmas. Santa has already come down the chimney and dropped off presents. Wrapping paper that was once wrapped around a gift with precision lives either in the recycling bin or in shards on the floor. Tears, both of joy and of disappointment, have been shed. Meanwhile, the Twins fan waits patiently, periodically looking up the chimney to see if a gift is just stuck along the walls.
 
It’s something you get used to as a fan of a lower-to-mid-market team. You’re not the rich kid that gets a new car every other holiday season, but you’re also not the family that shops at the food shelf for Christmas Dinner. You’re in the middle, which can be the worst place of all.
 
Part of being a fan in the middle is talking about payroll, about business, about dollars. This has been a reality for me since LaVelle was writing his annual stories in the early 2000s about not being able to keep the resurgent Twins teams together. Instead of just being excited that a possible Josh Donaldson signing would improve our offense for the next four years, we have to consider how much of his potential $20MM+ salary in 2022 may hold us back from resigning some of our homegrown players.
 
A couple of years ago this attitude made me start counting down the days until Joe Mauer’s contract was going to be off the books. Would shedding $23MM from the expenses materially change anything in terms of wins and losses? Probably not, but that $23MM could have been better spent in 2018. I dislike having to think that way but it’s a necessity. Right now, the Minnesota Twins have at least $23MM to spend, and probably closer to $30-35MM. Essentially, they could add a Lexus to their fleet and not miss the money
 
.
However, the further away I get from midnight, the less sure I am that Santa Claus is going to come through. I tried to be good all year. I went to the Twins Winter Caravan, I wanted to go to Twinsfest (work duties got in the way), I bought my flex pack and renewed for 2020 even though the prices went up. I did everything a fan is supposed to do. And right now it feels like my financial dedication is being answered with silence. I feel like I’m closer to shopping for an off-brand Martin Perez at the food shelf than walking out my front door to a luxury automobile topped with an oversized red bow.
 
But I’m in the middle class. I’m resourceful enough to know I don’t need to live off handouts. I’m naïve enough to think I can reach the top of the mountain, if even for just one year. And I’m smart enough to know the intelligent allocation of dollars are the best path to get to the peak.
 
So that’s what I aim to do here on my blog. I want to explore the money game, the dollars behind the diamond. I want to figure out the best use of $100K, of $10MM. I plan to do some research, a lot of speculation and hopefully some education.
 
So sit back, enjoy the unseasonable warmth and gather around the fire. Because if the stove’s not hot, at least the fireplace is.

I've decided to continue exploring the trade market on the outside of the top tier today, just as I recently had with Marco Gonzales. This one in particular may take a leap of faith. I want to make a case for pulling off a trade for Chris Archer.
 
Chris Archer's fall from relative acedom has been quick and severe. You would never guess that he was a quality starter as recently as last season by many measures. He has become the poster boy of the laughingstock trade the Pirates made in 2018 that included a return of Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows, and significant prospect capital for the Rays. To say Archer stumbled in 2019, his first full season as a Pirate would be an understatement. He had a career worst ERA supported by his peripherals, likely as a result of a career worst BB/9 (4.14) and HR/9 (1.88) His groundball rate dropped by 8% from 2018 to 2019, a terrible strategy in the season of the juice ball. Archer did not even approach 150 innings for the first time since 2013. Even his durability as a starting pitcher was nowhere to be seen despite him only being 31 years old.
 
What could cause all of these changes for a pitcher who was rather effective for years before coming to Pittsburgh? Well the pitch mix tells an interesting story. Archer threw his slider less than he has any year since 2014 in favor of the fastball which was down a tick from 2018 to 94.2. This is a pitch that has been absolutely punished recently, producing a positive pitch vaue last in 2014. Archer has always been known for his devastating slider, and even in a 2019 season where he was tagged, it was by far his best pitch despite being thrown about 6% less.
 
The fix I have is fairly unimaginative for Archer. After watching our coaching staff oversee so many steps forward in pitching last season, I would love to see them get a crack at Archer. Ray Searage was once known as a pitching guru and helped revive the careers of pitchers like Francisco Liriano, A.J. Burnett, as well as others. However, Searage more recently was let go from his job. We've seen Charlie Morton leave Pittsburgh and become a Cy Young candidate, Tyler Glasnow appears to have been held back in the black and gold as well. I'm not even going to get into Gerrit Cole. Archer may just not be the kind of pitcher that Ray Searage can improve. I may even argue that there's a possibility that he made him worse. 2019 was an all out aberration for Archer, who is due $20 million over the next two seasons where he will be 31 and 32 years old. This is an opportunity to buy about as low as can be. The Pirates wouldn't ask much for Archer in the way of prospects, as they look to shed payroll at the start of a lengthy rebuild.
 
Chris Archer's collapse parallels with his move to Pittsburgh, where he was overseen by a pitching coach who has commonly been accused of being passed over by analytics and the new age of pitching. His pitch mix changed ever so slightly in a season where we saw several career worsts. Amidst all of this, he still struck out 10.75 batters per 9, showing off his skills that appear to still be there. While he may also not be the big name Twins fans are looking for, he still has considerable upside. At the very least he has proven to be durable in just about every season until he sat out the end of 2019 with shoulder inflammation. If you believe in this coaching staff as much as I do, Chris Archer should be somebody to get excited about. I think the Pirates can survive one more terrible trade.

The Twins missed on Zack Wheeler when he signed a 5-year, $118 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine made an offer that Wheeler may have considered had he not been tied so heavily to New Jersey and the National League East.
 
The good news is that Wheeler is not the only realistic impact pitcher that the Twins can acquire. They took a considerable step forward by resigning Michael Pineda to a 2-year, $20 million contract late Thursday night.
 
The rotation now consists of their three best starters from 2019 in Pineda, Jake Odorizzi and José Berríos, but there is more work to be done. Madison Bumgarner and Hyun-Jin Ryu are out there, and the Twins are reportedly in on both, maybe even more so for Ryu:
 
https://twitter.com/AaronGleeman/status/1203085438719643648?s=20
 
 
Pros of Hyun-Jin Ryu:
 
Ryu is an elite run preventer. He had the lowest ERA in the National League and a 163/24 K/BB ratio in 182 ⅔ innings for the Dodgers in 2019.
 
The price for Ryu is a huge plus. He should demand a contract in the 3-year, $75 million range. With Falvey and Levine prioritizing clean books, Ryu fits the bill as a shorter-term commitment.
 
Cons of Hyun-Jin Ryu:
 
Well, age. Ryu has had considerable health issues throughout his career. Ryu pitched a total of 213 ⅔ innings from 2016-2018 after back-to-back 150+ inning seasons to start his major league tenure.
 
Ryu has spent his entire career in Los Angeles and may not be looking to move to Minnesota if it is not for a substantial amount of money. The Dodgers may also have mutual interest in retaining the Cy-Young runner-up.
 
Pros of Madison Bumgarner:
 
Bumgarner was one of the best starting pitchers of the last decade, winning three World Series titles and pitching in four All-Star games with four top-10 finishes for the Cy Young Award.
 
He is incredibly consistent, never posting an ERA above 3.90 in 11 seasons. Bumgarner is a workhorse, throwing over 200 innings seven times in his career. He is entering his age-30 season and still seems to have plenty left in the tank.
 
Cons of Madison Bumgarner:
 
The price of Bumgarner skyrocketed when Wheeler signed his massive deal. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that MadBum will likely demand $100 million or more himself.
 
Bumgarner has nearly 2,000 innings on his arm and pitched in only 38 games between 2017 and 2018. He has also benefited from San Francisco’s pitcher-friendly confines, posting a 2.72 ERA at home compared to 3.53 on the road.
 
Where should they lean?
 
I do like Ryu, and I think he is effective again in 2020, but I think Bumgarner is the way to go. MadBum is a winner, and I think I would feel very confident with him on the hill in a playoff game.
 
Who do you want the Twins to sign? Comment below!

Rightly so, Twins fans are very excited about Brusdar Graterol, the flame-throwing 21-year-old from Venezuela. Graterol was called up to the Twins bullpen last summer and mostly impressed, even touching 102 MPH on his sinker. Graterol will be in the rotation soon enough, and his future partner in crime, the one they call "Jordy Blaze,” is on his way to stardom.
 
Jordan Balazovic was drafted in the 5th round of the 2016 Amateur Draft out of Mississauga, Canada. Balazovic played in eight Gulf Coast League games as a 17-year-old and posted a 1.97 ERA. Balazovic was mediocre at Class A in 2018 with a 3.94 ERA and 7-3 record. While Balazovic had a pedestrian ERA, his peripherals were outstanding. He struck out 78 batters in 61 2/3 innings and allowed only 5 home runs.
 
Balazovic massively improved in 2019 with a 2.18 ERA in four starts at Cedar Rapids with 14.4 K/9. It was quickly realized that Balazovic was ready for the next step. He was promoted to Fort Myers and continued his excellence. In 73 innings, Jordy-B struck out 96 batters and allowed just three home runs. Balazovic was an elite strike thrower, walking just 2.4 batters per nine innings.
 
Balazovic increased his velocity and consistently lived at 95 MPH with his sinker. Balazovic has flashed a plus-slider and at times, a great changeup. With his velocity increasing, his complementary pitches are becoming devastating. Tom Froemming has great analysis here:
 
The 6 foot 5, 215 pound up-and-comer is developing well-deserved praise and attention. Balazovic is ranked as the 76th overall prospect on MLB Pipeline. Balazovic just turned 21, and figures to start next season in Pensacola at class Double-A. With the developmental system instituted by Derek Falvey and company, Jordy Blaze carries unforeseen upside.
 
Image Credits:
Creator:Gordon Donovan
Credit:Photo: Gordon Donovan
Copyright:Photo: Gordon Donovan

Why am I seeing shots at Eddie Rosario all over TD? No, he is not our best player, but he is a good player. He gets 1.6 WAR this year according to Baseball Reference. He had a line of .276 /.300/.500/.800 this year and in the little aside on the MVP for this year he sounds like he should be LVP. Last year he was .288/.323/.479/.803 and the same site named him MVP. Now we want to trade him for a broken bat and one of the regular season rabbit balls. What is going on.
 
He is not HOF, but he is good. Who will take his place? Who will hit 32HRs and 109 RBIs if he is gone? Can we guarantee Larnach or Kiriloff are ready to do it? I hate having to be the one to speak up for Eddie, but someone has to question the madness.
 
Here are some highlights - go ahead 3-run home run https://www.mlb.com/video/eddie-rosario-homers-21-on-a-fly-ball-to-right-center-field-luis-arraez-scores-m
 
Astudillo and Rosario lead win
 
Rosario 4 hit game https://www.mlb.com/video/rosario-homers-in-4-hit-game
 
Garver and Rosario lead win
 
Home Run 31 https://www.mlb.com/video/eddie-rosario-homers-31-on-a-fly-ball-to-right-center-field
 
No he is not great - but he is good and if we choose to trade him it should not be because we want to get rid of him, but because we get a player who can do even more to help us win in the post season.

Overall, it's not hard to be excited about the Twins in 2020 given a 101 win season in 2019. The ending certainly wasn't ideal, but 2019 showed us that our window is open and it should be for a few years. Cleveland remains the only real competition in the central. Chicago is up and coming, but they are likely another year or two away before they can have a realistic shot of competing. KC and Detroit are dumpster fires right now. So with that in mind, it's up to Falvey and Levine to construct a roster that can not only win the central but advance deep into the post season.
 
There's no question that starting pitching is our biggest need, and if I were running the team, this is where I would focus if I were them, but we need to start by trimming and expanding the roster in advance of the Rule V draft. The Twins already made the easiest of moves by picking up Nelson Cruz's option, but it gets a bit tougher from here: This is our current 40 man roster. The following players are free agents: Gibson, Odorizzi, Schoop, Romo, and Castro. That leaves us at 36 before changes are made. I'd DFA/nontender/trade if someone wants to give up something for the following as well: Sam Dyson, Kohl Stewart, Ronald Torreyes, Ryan Lamarre, Trevor Hildenberger, and Ian Miller. I would also not pick up Perez's option. That brings us down to 28 guys on the roster going into winter meetings. Buxton and Poppen will most definitely return, so that moves us up to 30. CJ Cron is a bit of a wild card here. His play may not be worth the money spent on tendering him, but there's no replacement waiting in the wings just yet (more on him in a bit, but I haven't removed his spot). So as it stands right now, we need the following (several starting pitchers, a backup catcher, an 2B (though there's a replacement in house), possibly a 1B, and if possible another shut down reliever). Other than starting pitching help, this team is in pretty good shape...
 
So on that note, I'm going to start by tendering Odorizzi a QO, with the clear desire to sign him to a 3 year deal. I'm going to guestimate that at 3/45 to make it work, as the 17M QO is probably the starting point to a negotiation. Jake was very good for us this year, but I'm not sure he's good enough for teams to surrender a pick and pay him 50+M on a multi-year deal. That brings the roster to 31. With Odorizzi at 17M, our current payroll sits at 48M. I'm going to tender the following candidates with a note that I'd be willing to extend any extension candidate willing to sign a reasonable deal. Some players won't sign them (Buxton for sure as his value is low due to health), but I suspect a couple guys likely sign a longer term contract.
Ehire Adrianza – $1.9MM
Trevor May – $2.1MM (extension candidate)
Eddie Rosario – $8.9MM (I'd stay year to year here, I could see trading him if a better FA option was available, but I'm most likely tendering him)
Miguel Sano – $5.9MM (extension candidate)
Byron Buxton – $2.9MM (extension candidate)
Taylor Rogers – $3.9MM (extension candidate)
Tyler Duffey – $1.1MM (extension candidate)
Jose Berrios – $5.4MM (extension candidate)

That's an additional 32.1M. Add Garver in there as he's not going anywhere, but his total is about .5M. That leaves payroll at roughly 81M without Cron. Cron's arb estimate is around 7.7M, which isn't terrible for a .780 OPS. He's roughly an average bat at 1B. The problem with him though is that there aren't ML ready options to take his place... not now at least. Rooker, Raley and Weil could use more seasoning, and Kirilloff is also questionable at this point. Next year at this time, one of those guys will hopefully be knocking at the door or perhaps even had some success at the major league level, but I'm not sure there should be a plan to count on a rookie to perform. Surveying the FA market, you have a couple options available. Josh Donaldson would likely be my primary target, as he could also play 3B giving Baldelli some flexibility with Sano/Garver at 1B on occasion as well. I doubt he comes cheap, and certainly not cheaper than Cron. He's likely going to get something similar to his salary last season and quite possibly a multi-year deal, so I'd guess around 20M. Zimmerman, Rizzo, and Thames all have club options available, and to be honest there really isn't much in terms of sure fire help out there. I don't think trading for a 1B makes any sense at all unless there's someone who is essentially on the last year of his deal and performing. In all, I think tendering Cron is the right answer here unless they know they can get Donaldson... and I doubt that. So I tender him at 7.7M bringing our payroll up to roughly 89M.
 
I'm not quite sure who all needs protecting and exposing. I'm using roster resource and protecting anyone that has R5 or Dec 19 as their status if their play warrants it. That said, I know this tool isn't completely accurate, so hopefully I haven't missed anyone. I see 10 names that warrant discussion. Let's start with the easy ones:
 
Candidates:
Griffin Jax (protect)
Luke Raley (protect)
Jake Reed (expose. He was not good last year)
Zander Wiel (expose. He was not good last year)

It gets a bit more difficult from here.
Travis Blankenhorn - He will likely get a crack at AAA in his age 23 season. He had a .785 OPS in AA, and really does seem to be turning a corner. Those numbers are nothing special, but question at hand is can he stick on a ML roster. I don't think it's worth the risk. I protect him.
Jhoan Duran - Duran likely starts in AA in his age 22 season, though he could also be promoted as he did spent some time there. He does a fantastic job keeping the ball in the park. His walk rate is acceptable and he doesn't give a lot of hits. He's kept his K rate around 10/9 IP for the last 2 seasons. I protect him.
Dakota Chalmers - Chalmers is a sleeper. I could see a bad team poaching him and stashing him with their extra spot as he will be 23 next season. The MLB roster size expands to 26 in 2020, and I think bad teams will use that to grab players like Chalmers with upside who may be exposed. The Twins have a few of them and ultimately I think someone gets left off. Chalmers is posting some sexy strike out numbers striking out 48 in 34 innings of relief work. He's also very stingy with the long ball. His walk rate though is scary as he gave 23 free passes. Bottom line for Chalmers is that right now, he won't do well on a major league roster. His AFL performance to date has not changed my view of this. I'm going to expose him.
Tom Hackimer - Hackimer pitched pretty well in his age 25 season in AA. He's one that could possibly stick in a mop up role in MLB. I lean towards not protecting him as well given his age. He got the strikeouts this season, his walk rate was a bit high at just over 4 per 9 innings but overall had a pretty good season between high A and AA. He likely starts in AA or AAA, but I'm going to expose him.
Jovani Moran - Moran is a similar pitcher to Chalmers if you look at the numbers. He gets lots of strikeouts and gives up too many free passes though he tends to be prone to the long ball. He will also be 23 next season. He's another one risking losing, but I think I expose him.
Tyler Wells - Wells is the hardest one. He was absolutely money in the minors but TJS derailed his 2019 season before it started. He will be rehabbing and should be able to pitch most of the year. I think the upside is too good to risk this, so I keep him.

That leaves us with 5 additions. Our roster now sits at 36. We need to figure out at least 2 starting pitchers, a backup C, and ideally a shutdown RP. We're also sitting on a couple individuals (Harper, Poppen, and Gonsalves) that I'd like to keep but could be set free in the event a better opportunity comes along through cost cutting or trade.
 
Falvey and Levine stated they weren't afraid to blow up the payroll when the windows is open, so now it's time to see if they will put the Pohlad's money to the test. They need pitching help badly, and having someone that can sit in front of Odorizzi and Berrios is a must in my opinion. Sign Gerrit Cole or Steven Strassburg (if he opts out) to a 5 or 6 year deal at 30M/season. That's probably what it will take to get either one of them. Feasibly, they could get them both and still have payroll sitting south of 150M, but I'm guessing that won't happen as much as I'd like and there are other needs I'd rather address... But they have to go big here, even if that means out bidding the competition by a significant margin. That moves payroll to $119M and gives us a pretty nice starting trio in Cole, Berrios, and Odorizzi. I'm guessing there's a QO attached here too for Cole at least, and I sacrifice the pick.
 
They still need 2 more pitchers. I'm fine letting Dobnak, Thorpe, Gonsalves, and Smeltzer compete for one of the spots. Most of these guys did well enough that I'm not losing sleep over the role. It's Dobnak's to lose at this point, but he earned it in limited looks. The reality is that unless there's a trade in the works that involves sending one or two of these guys off as part of a deal for a more established option such as say Mike Minor, I think this spot is going to go to pre-arb guys. That's another 500k on the payroll. Note that I didn't mention Graterol. I'm assuming he's going to remain as a starter, but that also means he's capped at about 120 innings. He could be this guy as well, but I think he could pair well with Michael Pineda if they bring him back... which brings me to my next FA target:
 
There are a few names I'd probably target here, they will have varying costs/years attached to them: Bumgardner, Wheeler, and Pineda would likely be my top 3. I'm personally not sold on Ryu from the Dodgers, but if my analytics guys liked him, then perhaps he's an option as well. Pineda actually pairs well with Graterol in that he can be stretched out and be the 5th starter in April/May and switch more to long relief/spot starting as the season wears on and Pineda returns from his suspension. That would keep Graterol's innings around 120 for the year (baring injury of course, which with Graterol is not low risk). Pineda would have been a QO option had he not been suspended. With roughly 40 days left on his suspension and of course the risk that he gets suspended again for longer, he's likely going to sign for much less than that. I'd offer him a 1/7 make good deal unless of course there's an unexpected price drop for the other guys on this list. That also means Graterol is on the 26 man, so that's another 500k to add to the payroll. If one of these other big names sign, I'm likely going to give Graterol a late start to his season in AAA and stretch him out to be the spot starter for the inevitable pitching injury. Once he gets closer to his 120, I'd shift him to the MLB pen during the stretch run.
 
If you're keeping track at this point, I've added another 8M here and now I'm sitting at roughly 127M.
 
Next up, I target a catcher. I'm not liking the idea of going with Astrudillo as my backup C. Rortvedt and Jeffers may be knocking at the door next year at this time, but counting on either in 2020 would not be wise. Astrudillo, while a fan favorite, still has options and is extremely valuable to the team earning frequent flier miles between Rochester and Minneapolis when someone gets hurt, so I'm going to sign someone. Retaining Castro is fine in my opinion if he's OK with a backup role. I'm looking though for no more than a two year deal. Castro works fine here, but I'd also target Austin Romine, Brian McCann, or Steven Voght. I'd be fine sacrificing a few home runs for some OBP. These guys are not young, so they won't be getting a huge deal. I'm going to guess it will be somewhere around 2/10-15, giving you a 5-8M cost in payroll. I'm going to assume this is 6M for now, bringing payroll up to 133.
 
Last, I'm targeting a RP. I didn't learn my lesson about free agent relievers (and hopefully I'll update that blog at some point later this month), and there's 1 FA reliever that I want on this team and think that Falvey should pay for. I'm targeting Will Smith and spending what it takes to get him. I'm guessing he's signing for a 3-4 year deal at 10M+. He signed a 3/24 deal with SF in his last go around, and I have to think he's going to get at least that. I'm going to assume 3/30, but I'd be willing to pay more.
 
That brings payroll up to 143.
 
My 26 man roster is now as follows:
C - Garver
1B - Cron
2B - Arraez or Gordon
3B - Sano
SS - Polanco
CF - Buxton
RF/LF - Rosario/Kepler
DH - Cruz
 
SP
Cole/Strassburg, Berrios, Odorizzi, Graterol/Pineda or other pitching FA, Dobnak
 
RP
Smith, May, Duffey, Rodgers, Littell, Graterol, Harper (I'd have some open competition, but these are who I've penciled in).
 
Bench
Adrianza, Cave, Castro or other FA, Gonzalez
 
I didn't count the salaries of Littell, Harper, and Cave or whomever internally would beat them out which comes out to another 1.5M. That puts my total payroll at roughly 144.5. I would hope this could go up a bit if my estimates were a bit low, but there's room there in my opinion.
 
So there you have it. We can add a top shelf starter and relief pitcher and keep our payroll under 150M. I'm not sure what the front office will target, but this seems like a very reasonable option to field a very competitive team in 2020 and one with a good shot of advancing deep in the post season.

Much of the discussion in the early part of the offseason has understandably been pitching. While the Twins must fill in their rotation, there are still plenty of questions to be answered at the plate. Here is my crack at the 2020 Opening Day lineup:
 
1. Luis Arraez, 2B
 
Arraez is the quintessential leadoff hitter. He takes elite at-bats and rarely strikes out.
 
2. Jorge Polanco, SS
 
Polanco should again slot in second. Do the Twins prefer to put more power behind Arraez?
 
3. Nelson Cruz, DH
 
The ageless wonder will see ducks on the pond often with two elite contact hitters in front of him.
 
4. Max Kepler, RF
 
Kepler is an admirable leadoff man and it pains me to take his at-bats. He will thrive in this role as well.
 
5. Miguel Sano, 3B
 
The 5th spot will be cut out exclusively for Miggy and 3-4-5 will be a powerful punch.
 
6. Eddie Rosario, LF
 
Rosario moves out of the cleanup role and provides much more balance to an already lethal lineup.
 
7. Mitch Garver, C
 
This goes to show how good this team will be and obeys Baldelli's approach of alternating handedness.
 
8. Marwin Gonzalez, 1B
 
Gonzalez and Cron should switch off at first unless Cron is non-tendered this winter.
 
9. Byron Buxton, CF
 
Derek Falvey said Buxton should be ready by March. They are much better with him in the lineup.
 
Starting Pitcher: Jose Berrios
 
Unless the Twins sign Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg, Berrios will spearhead the rotation once again.
 
Of course, a lot of this revolves around the offseason, and there is no better place than Twins Daily for analysis and updates! Go Twins!
 
Please comment below the changes you would make to this lineup!

Division champions
 
I know we're all excited about the playoffs, but let's take a minute to appreciate the Twins' excellent regular season just concluded.
2016 2017 2018 2019 changeActual wins 59 85 78 101 +23Pythag wins 66 83 77 97 +20
The Twins had their second-best season ever, in terms of their record. Of course, the American league is much more stratified than ever, there being five teams with 95 losses or more, and the Tigers with 113, thus there are much more wins to be had for the top teams. The Twins came up just behind the Astros, Yankees, and Dodgers in the standings, while spending less on salary by a wide margin. Very impressive!
 
So where did the Twins' actual improvement come from? Eddie Rosario coined the term that the Twins marketing department ran with: Las Bombas! The Twins exploded to have the best offense in the game, not to mention they set the all-time total home run record, with 307 for the season. That wasn't nearly enough by itself to bring the Twins to 101 wins; they needed solid improvements from both their rotation and their relievers. Finally, most of these improvements came in a way that you probably could not have predicted: baseball is a funny game, and I am continually surprised at how much
. 2016 2017 2018 2019 changeLuck (pythag) -7 +2 +1 +4 +3 Hitters WAR 17.0 28.7 15.2 31.4 +16.2 Pitchers WAR 1.8 7.0 12.3 23.9 +11.6
I'll break down the hitters by WAR (technically fWAR, or FanGraph's WAR), focusing on the players that mattered most.
 
As a reminder, WAR is the best way to boil down any player's performance (from hitting, pitching, fielding, and baserunning) into one overall number. It is a "performance" stat that doesn't care about situations, not a situation-dependent "outcomes" stat (like WPA) or a more predictive "fundamentals" stat (like xWOBA or xFIP). That is, it tells you the overall contribution of a player that can be expected from that player's performance. This is measured in the number of fractional wins that player was better than a replacement-level player at his position. There's some good theory as to what is "replacement" level, but the closest the Twins have this year is C.J. Cron at 0.3 WAR--an okay hitter, but not that good compared to other first basemen. Any team could hope to find a first baseman on waivers or in their minor leagues almost as good as the 2019 version of C.J. Cron.
 
I'll list last year's players who have been replaced for comparison's sake, as well.
WAR 2018 2019 Change15 hitters 14.6 31.3 +16.7 RF Kepler 2.6 4.4 +1.8DH Morrison=>Cruz -0.7 4.3 +5.0SS Polanco 1.3 4.1 +2.8C Garver 1.3 3.9 +2.63B Sano 0.0 2.8 +2.8CF Buxton -0.4 2.7 +3.12B Dozier=>Arraez 1.0 2.1 +1.1LF Rosario 3.4 1.3 -2.11B Mauer=>Cron 1.0 0.3 -0.7 C Castro -0.2 1.5 +1.3CI Escobar=>Gonzalez 2.4 1.4 -1.02B Forsythe=>Schoop 0.4 1.4 +1.04O Cave 1.3 0.7 -0.6SS Adrianza 0.5 0.6 +0.1UT Grossman=>Astudillo 0.7 -0.2 -0.9
Take a moment to enjoy the contents of that rightmost column, and reflect on all the Twins games you watched and boxscores you read that led to that column. The Twins offense was better nearly everywhere, an improvement in one season that few teams are able to make in one year.
 
Moves that worked
 
Sprechen sie Baseball?
Four years ago, Max Kepler looked like a promising young player. A B-level prospect, he had up and down years in the minors before becoming the Twins' everyday right fielder in 2016. He put up hitting numbers that were just below average and was highly reliable in the field. Three years of nearly identical numbers (OPS+ of 96 each year) made us think that Kepler was a solid contributor but not a difference-maker. But something happened--whether it was tweaks by Kepler to change his launch angle a bit, mentorship from James Rowson, or a combination of several other things, Kepler doubled his home run rate while maintaining his plate discipline. He deserved to make the all-star team (there's always next year, though). Kepler is, at least in 2019, the best player on the team.
 

(GIFs from PitcherList, who borrowed them from MLB-owned media.)
 
On a Cruz every night
Whereas Kepler had a breakout year that still hasn't had enough attention, the Twins signed Nelson Cruz to do what he's always done: hit the ball hard over and over again. No doubt the Twins were hoping for merely a slight decline in his productivity coming off a year with 37 home runs and a 9% walk rate. Instead, Cruz kicked it up a notch, hitting 41 bombas and drawing walks at an 11% rate, increasing his season OPS+ from 134 to 166. While Kepler is the Twins' best player, I'd peg Cruz as their most valuable, as the Twins need to play all their best players in the field and have no other good option at DH. Year over year, the Twins improved by no less then 5 wins at DH position alone--simply put, without Cruz the Twins probably win "only" 97 games and maybe could have been caught by the Indians in the division.
 
Signing Schoop but pivoting to Arraez
The Twins signed Jonathan Schoop to replace Dozier at second base, and he did well in April and May, with an OPS+ well over 100. But the Twins knew they were getting a somewhat inconsistent player, and Schoop began to falter in June. Luis Arraez, meanwhile was hitting .344 with a high walk rate in AAA, which you can't let languish there. The Twins called him as fill-in in May and then permanently in June, when he quickly became an everyday palyer and then the starting second baseman, posting a 123 OPS+ and hitting .334. Schoop still got some playing time and actually improved in the second half, which is fortunate as the Twins need Schoop with Arraez hurt in the playoffs.
 
Not panicking about 2018 underachievers
In 2018, everything that could have gone wrong with the Twins offense did. Of they players that today remain from that team, in 2018 Sano had a terribly ineffective year, Buxton had lots of problems whenever he was actually playing, Polanco was good but not great in his half-season of work, and Castro was a poor hitter but a good catcher--but all these players had the potential for much more, and the Twins wisely kept all four around for the bomba squad to-be even as some Twins fans were ready to trade away Sano for peanuts and cut Castro. Instead, Sano finally showed that he is a very good hitter after all and not Delmon Young 2.0, Castro embraced increased rest to have the second-best hitting season of his career, Polanco's breakout was almost as strong as Kepler's, and much-injured Buxton hit very well in limited time. Collectively, these four players improved by eight wins. More importantly, three of the four hitters figure into the Twins' plans for years to come.
 
Giving rest to catchers
There is no longer any doubt that Mitch Garver is a top-notch hitter as well as a average-fielding catcher. Such a player is supremely valuable, but the Twins wisely held on to Jason Castro. These two flipped back-and-forth all year, enabling them both to get the rest they need at baseball's most taxing everyday position. With sporadic starts from Willians Astudillo, the catching position become one of the Twins' biggest strengths. The Twins have likely learned enough about these players to let Castro go in free agency and trust Astudillo to back up Garver, but that is a possible change for 2020. This year, keeping Castro has paid off handsomely.
 
Lifting the launch angle
We now know fairly certainly that "The most valuable batted balls are hit between 19° and 26°." However, knowing this fact is a far different thing than coaching players who are good at hitting the ball hard and flat to tweak their swing. A player can too readily change their launch angle but lose exit velocity--in short, a higher launch angle is only good if they continue to hit the ball hard at that higher angle. The five Twins hitters from last year who saw big improvements overall also saw big improvements their launch angle.
Launch Angle 2018 2019Buxton 12.7 19.5Kepler 16.2 18.2Polanco 15.5 18.0 Sano 12.9 16.0Garver 12.5 15.3
What's interesting is that there's more where that came from: if these players and their coaches can continue to tweak swings that launch the ball even higher while maintaining power, you might see incluso más bombas in 2020.
 
Moves that bombed
 
A failing Cron job
It is rare to find an above-average player available on waivers, but the Twins thought they had one in C.J. Cron, who the Rays let go to make room for Ji-Man Choi to start every night. And after the month of May, Twins fans were loving this move when Cron was hitting for power and drawing walks. But slumps starting in late June made us realize why the Rays considered him expendable. One might attribute nearly all of Cron's struggle to a nearly-chronic inflammation or "bone bruise" in his thumb, which harmed his swing substantially. So, I can't complain too much about this move--the Twins don't have a great solution at first base (especially with Brent Rooker's problematic year), and they might consider bringing Cron back next year, at least till Rooker, Alex Kiriloff, or even Luke Raley seems ready to contribute.
 
La Tortuga no está en fuego
Along with everyone else, I was on the Willians Astudillo bandwagon to start the year. I always love when unusual players can be successful, and Astudillo might be the most unusual. His minor league hitting stats, his catching ability, his position versatility, and his arm all argue for him to have a place on the team. But once he got regular playing time, the cracks began to show--it's really hard to be a good hitter when you swing at everything. And "swing at everything" is less of an exaggeration for Astudillo than for anyone else, as he walked only 5 times in 202 plate appearances. You don't really have to pitch to La Tortuga, you just have to throw it in his general direction. His propensity for weakly hit balls in play makes few pitchers fear him. Still, a .700 OPS is good enough to be a backup catcher in the majors, and maybe he can improve his hitting a little, so I'm not too worried here--but I'm not sure I have time for the La Tortuga fan club meetings anymore.
 
On to the starting pitchers:
WAR 2018 2019 Change6 starters 9.7 16.7 +6.9 Berrios 3.3 4.4 +1.1 Odorizzi 2.6 4.3 +1.7Gibson 2.8 2.6 -0.2Lynn=>Pineda 0.8 2.7 +1.9Romero=>Perez 0.7 1.9 +1.2Santana=>Dobnak -0.5 0.8 +1.3
Moves that worked
 
Berrios and Odo for the wins
Jose Berrios went from being the Twins' best pitcher to also their most dependable. There was never a stretch from Berrios where he faltered for an extended period, and he eclipsed earning 600 outs (that is, 200 IP) in a season for the first time in his career. His walk rate and ERA went down as his velocity stayed around 93-95 MPH and his outstanding curveball kept curving.
 

 
Odorizzi meanwhile had the best year of his career, posting a 3.51 ERA, 10 strikeouts per 9 IP, and allowing only 16 home runs, all the best of his career. The Twins are now wishing they could have signed him to a longer contract, as they need him next year.
 

The 1948 Braves lost the World Series on "Spahn and Sain and pray for rain", though the 2001 Diamondbacks won the World Series with "Johnson and Schilling and the good Lord willing." Can the 2019 Twins advance on "Berrios and Odorizzi"...and not so warm and fizzy? Listen to Thin Lizzy? Then after, not so easy? The rhyming isn't as clever, but Baldelli's bullpen usage will have to be, as they'll likely need at least one win each series in games without either of their top two starters.
 
Patient, Passable Pineda & Perez
Martin Perez provided uncharacteristic excellence in April and May first half, but at the end of June something happened and he started giving up lots of runs in lots of innings. Michael Pineda had to work the rust out with a rough April, but after that was solid and finished the year with an ERA of 4 (lower than the league average) and solid numbers across.
 
Getting to know Randy Dobnak
Randy Dobnak was undrafted out of a college named Alderson-Broaddus in a town named Phillippi in West Virginia, so he went to pitch in an independent league where the Twins noticed him and signed him. He then had success at every level in the minors. He doesn't strikeout a lot, he gives up his share of walks, and his fastball can barely hit 94. His solution to this is to usually avoid the four-seam fastball and instead work the sinker, slider, and an occasional changeup and sprinkle it in and out of the zone. The results have been excellent in five starts, and that's likely enough for Dobnak to earn a start in the ALDS next week.
 
Moves that bombed
 
No ace to be seen
May and June had Twins fans loving Berrios, Perez, and Odorizzi, and August had Pineda pitching well, but at every step, the Twins could have dearly benefitted from a number one starter. The Twins tried to sign Dallas Keuchel, but he sat out half the season instead. They tried to trade for Marcus Stroman, but the Mets took him in a strange strategy of sacrificing the future to miss the playoffs today. They tried to trade for Zack Greinke, but they couldn't give up as much as the Diamondbacks could. They wanted Madison Bumgarner, but the Giants didn't want to part with their long-time starting pitcher. So the Twins had to make do without a top-notch pitcher, and now in the playoffs and in 2020, it becomes even tougher to get by without one.
 
Stop taking mystery pills
Michael Pineda, in a surprise to everyone, was suspended late in the year for testing positive for diuretics. Pineda claims that he took a weight loss pill that was unknowingly tainted with hydrochlorothiazide, and Major League Baseball pretty much conceded that fact in reducing his suspension from 80 to 60 games. Still, no one complained about this suspension; we cannot effectively ban PEDs unless we also ban PED-masking drugs, and we can't effectively ban those if excuses are allowed. So the lesson here is simple: professional athletes should never take any drug or supplement that hasn't been reviewed by team doctors. The Twins' staff will not let Pineda accidentally ingest a diuretic, but they had no way to prevent it here. Dear all future Twins players: don't take mystery pills. If they work, there's probably a reason, and if they don't work, why would you take them?
 
And the bullpen:

WAR 2018 2019 Change11 relievers+spot starts 2.4 7.7 +5.3 Rogers 1.9 2.1 +0.2 Duffey -0.2 1.2 +1.4Duke=>May 0.8 0.9 +0.1Pressly=>Harper 0.8 0.9 +0.1Moya=>Littell 0.1 0.6 +0.5Hildenberger=>Thorpe 0.0 0.6 +0.6Reed=>Smeltzer -0.2 0.5 +0.7Belisle=>Romo -0.2 0.5 +0.7Rodney=>Stashak 0.5 0.5 0.0Magill -0.3 0.1 +0.4Busenitz=>Parker -0.8 -0.2 +0.6
Moves that worked
 
Relievers are molded, not signed
I and most other writers wanted the Twins to sign some high-level relief help. There is no doubt that Falvey and Levine tried, but just came up short. But in the end, the Twins pen was well above average, and all but two of the contributors weren't such last year. The Twins know well that the best relievers are often failed starters, and Duffey, May, and Littell all made that transition this year, with Stashak having done so last year. Rogers got even better this year compared to last, and Thorpe and Smeltzer swung between the bullpen and rotation to fill in the gaps much better than expected. Gaining 5 WAR out of a pieced-together, work-in-progress bullpen is a tremendous boost to the team as a whole.
 

 
It's always in the last place you look
If you would have told me the Twins would add a reliever who throws 94-97 mph, throws a really nice curveball, strikes out 12.8 per 9IP, and keeps a lid on home runs, I'd be thrilled with that acquisition. But it wasn't required, as Tyler Duffey, who has been bouncing between the majors and AAA for four years, has become a upper-tier relief pitcher. He was searching for the secret to success and finally found it in embracing the relief role. Now my question is, how many more pitchers can Wes Johnson and Jeremy Hefner develop into scorchers?
 

Instead of trading prospects, call them up
The Twins front office were criticized for failing to trade for a top pitcher at the deadline, and their one acquisition, Sam Dyson, fell flat immediately. Still, they expressed a valid point: instead of trading their high-minors assets for short-term help, why not use the assets as the short term help itself? In very limited playing time, Brusdar Graterol contributed in key spots and showed that he's ready to help in the postseason. The Twins also called up Jorge Alcala to do the same, but the success of the rest of the bullpen limited his chances.
 
Want mo' Romo
Sergio Romo came onto the Twins roster with a big positive attitude and an even bigger slider that seems nearly unhittable to righthanders. While he wasn't around long enough to post more than half a WAR for the Twins, he contributed toward several wins and will be highly important against the Yankees and then the Astros, two highly right-handed teams, in the playoffs.

 
Moves that bombed
 
Blake "Out of the" Park-er
Blake Parker was signed as a plan B--a move to bolster the back end of the bullpen. Instead, he ended up the Twins' only bullpen acquisition over the offseason, and proceeded to give up 7 home runs and 16 walks against 36 innings pitched before the Twins said goodbye. His numbers before and after the Twins stint are passable, so the Twins can be forgiven for making an okay move that just didn't work out. Give them credit for moving on early enough--no Twins fan will need to remember Blake Parker after this paragraph ends.
 
His name was Magill, he called himself Lil, but everyone knew him as Nancy
Rocky Baldelli stepped into his room, only to find Guardado's bullpen. One leftover piece of that pen, whom Baldelli seemed to tout, was a pitcher who never shined as a reliever in the minors or majors. The Twins thought he had some tools they could work with, but it didn't come to pass as Matt Magill had a ERA of 4.45 and decent strikeout rate, but he fell apart in key situations and didn't have the foundation for success that the Twins' staff was looking for. Like Parker, they moved on from Magill quickly, and he has had some success with the Mariners, but he was never going to be a top bullpen option and is no big loss.
 
Division champions
 
It's overall been an excellent season for the Twins. So take today and tomorrow to enjoy the afterglow of the best regular season the Twins have had in your lifetime and feel good about what they accomplished, no matter what happens in October.

2019 has been a breakout year for Max Kepler. Kepler’s talent and upside has been on display since his days in the minor leagues but he has seemingly put it all together this season. In the year of the home run, Kepler has been no exception as he has led the best home run-hitting team in baseball with 36 long balls. His previous career high was 20, which Kepler will more than likely double. He will put up career highs in all of the traditional batting stats and has been good for a team best 4.4 fWAR. Defensively he is among the best right fielders in baseball and he has filled in admiringly in center field during Byron Buxton’s trips to the IL.
 
When dreaming about Max Kepler’s upside a comp that has often been made is to Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich. Like Kepler, Yelich spends the majority of his time in right field, hits for a lot of power despite not having a traditional power hitter’s build, and leads his team in home runs and WAR. Yelich’s contract situation is also very similar to Kepler’s as he is currently signed to a seven year, 49.57 million dollar contract that ends in 2021 with a club option in 2022. Kepler is also signed to a seven million dollar AAV through 2023 with a club option for 2024. Needless to say both Minnesota and Milwaukee can be nothing less than thrilled with those contacts.
 
While Kepler’s power surge came to fruition this season, Yelich had a similar transformation in 2018. Prior to being traded over to Milwaukee before the 2018 season, Yelich’s previous home run high with the Miami Marlins was 21 in 2016. However, last season Yelich exploded for 36 dingers in his first season with Milwaukee and has hit a career high 43 so far this year. Yelich’s 2018 numbers (.326/.402/.598, 166 wRC+, 7.6 fWAR) were good enough to win the NL MVP award and lead his team to within a game of the World Series. Although Milwaukee is now on the outside looking in for a wild card spot, Yelich has been every bit as good, hitting .326/.421/.672 for a 169 wRC+ and a 7 fWAR.
 
Kepler’s numbers have not yet reached the level of Yelich’s, but his great leap forward has happened at the same age as Yelich’s. Both players were consistent and above average players in their earlier years, but something clicked in their age-26 seasons. As both players became more familiar with major league pitching and most likely added some strength, there power numbers surged. Both started hitting the ball harder than ever as Yelich’s hard hit percentage went from 35.2% in his age-25 season, to 47.6% at age 26 (and 50.3% this year!), while Kepler has gone from 37.1% to 42.9% (and up from 33% for his first two seasons).
 


 
Both players have had similar power trajectories but there are clear differences in their overall skill sets. Kepler and Yelich both have good speed, but Yelich is a very good base stealer (26 SB on the year with only 2 CS) while Kepler very rarely attempts to take a bag. Yelich is also a much better overall hitter than Kepler thus far in their careers. Yelich has a career .301 batting average with a .381 on-base-percentage and a .373 wOBA. Kepler on the other hand has hit just .239 with a .320 OBP and .326 wOBA. Yelich has the advantage of having an extra year of being an elite hitter on Kepler, but his overall numbers would still be much better than Kepler’s.
 
Their career walk rates are similar (Yelich 11.0%, Kepler 9.9%) and Kepler actually has the better isolated power numbers (.208 ISO to .190) but Yelich has a huge advantage when it comes to batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Kepler has always had a notoriously low BABIP (career .254) and this season has been no different at .246. Contrast that to Yelich who has always been able to “hit it where they ain’t” with a career .358 BABIP. While BABIP can fluctuate a fair amount from season to season and is somewhat luck based, a career difference of over .100 is certainly more than just luck. Yelich’s ability to hit the ball slightly harder than Kepler and his faster sprint speeds probably helps a bit, but Yelich is also less pull-heavy than Kepler which makes him less susceptible to hitting into the shift. Kepler is currently pulling the ball at a 53.7 % clip while going opposite field just 19% of the time. Yelich hits the balls to all fields, pulling 38.5 %, going to center 38.3 %, and going opposite field 23.2 % of the time.
 


 
With Kepler hitting for as much power as he has, the Twins are probably loath to change his approach in order to improve his average. There is, however, one area where Kepler already exceeds Yelich – defense. Yelich is not a bad defender per say, but he is probably average at best and is rated negatively by both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference (which could be the deciding factor in Cody Bellinger winning the NL MVP this year). Conversely, Kepler rates as one of the best right fielders in the MLB with a 19.8 UZR/150 and has played well in center with a 12.8 UZP/150. FanGraphs even has Kepler rated as the best defensive outfielder in all of baseball.
 
Christian Yelich is already one of the top players in all of baseball, but Max Kepler is not so far behind. If Kepler can continue to improve his overall offensive game and maintain his homerun power, he could join the elite few in baseball. MVP awards may be hard to come by with arguably the best player in MLB history also playing in the American League (Mike Trout, in case you’ve been living under a rock), but at the young age of 26 Max Kepler is starting to turn some heads. Minnesota would naturally be happy if Kepler can continue to replicate the success he has had in 2019, but it may even be possible that the best is yet to come.

This is an excerpt form an article which originates at Zone Coverage. Click here to read it in full.
 
This isn't the first time Devin Smeltzer has been summoned to the Twin Cities to replace an ailing Michael Pineda on the Minnesota Twins' 25-man roster.
 
That came back in late May.
 
But if how the young lefty has thrown in his big-league stints has been any indication, there might not be many more recalls -- he's been that impressive.
 
The last time we saw the lefty on a big-league mound, he was giving the Twins a massive lift on July 24. Their pitching staff was in tatters, and after Jake Odorizzi was bounced early that night by a powerful Yankees offense, Smeltzer jumped in and cleaned up the final five innings of the game, allowing just a solo homer to Edwin Encarnacion while allowing the offense to claw back and at least make a game of it late.
 
His reward was being sent back out right after the game in a seemingly endless cycling of pitchers between Rochester and Minnesota leading up to the trade deadline -- but he wasn't there for long.
 
Smeltzer got word that he would be needed to start on Sunday sometime Saturday and arrived in Minneapolis with plenty of time to prepare for Sunday's start.He couldn't have looked more locked in.
 
Smeltzer and three relievers combined for a two-hit shutout of the Kansas City Royals in a 3-0 win -- and it was threes across the board.

Three runs scored
Three wins in the series
Three games up in the Central

 
There was also one very notable one in there as well -- it was Smeltzer's first MLB win.The offense wasn't terrific, as Royals righty Brad Keller held them at bay for much of the afternoon, but they got just enough production -- both in terms of manufacturing runs and driving the ball out of the ballpark -- to steal a sweep and grab their 69th win of the season.
 
Nice.

We are within the last 24 hours before the trade deadline and the market has been quiet for basically every non-Mets team in MLB. Apparently, this has become a pattern around major league GM’s in recent memory, whether it’s the deadline or offseason free agency. The fact is, none of the contenders has done much so far. What if they don’t?
 
First of all, this is not what I assume is going to happen. I believe that, eventually, teams willing to win will make their moves. But I’m curious to see what’s going to happen if none of them actually pulls the trigger until tomorrow. Granted, 2019 has one particularity. Most teams are considerably indecisive about being sellers or buyers, as USA Today columnist Bob Nightengale tweeted on Monday:
 
https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/1155904273567211521
 
Like I said, I strongly believe that contending teams will pull the trigger. But I have to say that I’m starting to be a little bit concerned if the Twins are among those teams. Don’t get me wrong, I really hope this suspicion is completely wrong. But if Derek Falvey and Thad Levine don’t bring in the stars Twins fans are hoping for, it wouldn’t be something never seen before in their regime.
 
The biggest example that comes to my mind is the last offseason. After bringing in key veterans to power the already good offense in C.J. Cron, Nelson Cruz, Jonathan Schoop and Marwin Gonzalez, the Twins had basically one urgent matter to address: the bullpen. For us fans, it sounded crazy to think they wouldn’t sign big names in the beginning of the year, especially because they had plenty of payroll room for that.
 
We all know what happened. The Twins decided to wait and made Blake Parker their one and only big free agent signing for the bullpen. Six months later, they still have the same urgent matter to be addressed. What if they choose to approach it the same way? Chances are very little, but here are three questions I ask about this current deadline for the Twins.
 
Is this their “all in year”?
This is an important matter. Is 2019 the ultimate contending year for the Twins? Should they spend top prospects to make the team stronger for this playoff run? One can argue that it isn’t. The Twins already have one of the best young cores in baseball. And that’s talking about MLB-talent, not only about prospects. The best offense in the league has an average age of 27.7. If it wasn’t for Nelson Cruz, it would be 26.9. That’s unbelievably young.
 
Also, Fangraphs currently ranks the Twins’ farm system as the sixth best in MLB and Minnesota has five players in the Top 100 Prospects in the game. So, would it really be the worst thing in the world if they didn’t commit to winning this year’s World Series? Maybe not. Maybe trusting this young core and let them get post-season experience at this point could make a huge difference in the years to come.
 
Is this team good enough to win?
I’ll be straight here and say that I don’t think so. But some people do. In several moments, Minnesota had the best record in baseball and have solidly stayed put within the top four teams in the league. Is it crazy to assume they can pull this? Perhaps no. Fangraphs’ Dan Szymborski tweeted yesterday an interesting rank of how many Wins Above Replacement (WAR) each team has outside their top four players. Guess who’s on top?
 
https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/status/1155913288179441666
 
Bottom line, Minnesota has a damn good team. They have taken the season series against the Astros earlier in the year and made the Yankees sweat to defeat them. Also, they currently have a 29-24 record against teams with .500 or above. That’s an 88-win pace on a 162-game season. It’s hard to believe, but such inconsistent pitching staff as the Twins’ has been currently has the seventh best ERA and FIP in the game, as well as the fourth most WAR. Like I said, I don’t think this team has what it takes to win it all the way its roster is right now, but I don’t think those who believe that are being unreasonable.
 
Are there really good options?
Maybe the biggest concern for all teams considering buying in this deadline is the lack of clear options. One of the Twins main targets, Marcus Stroman, was traded to the Mets during the weekend for an unbelievably cheap price. The Mets also kind of ruled out trading Noah Syndergaard to Minnesota when they asked for Byron Buxton in return, as reported by Star Tribune’s La Velle E. Neal III. In his opinion, “the Twins seem comfortable with their rotation”. And that probably adds up. I mean - and this is an honest question - who do you see in the league now that would represent a considerable leap in quality for the Twins rotation? Should they spend quality prospects to get players who would produce the same as their current starters?
 
When talking about the bullpen, things are clearly different when we talk about the club’s needs, but no so different when we talk about availability of options. In my opinion, the best option for Minnesota and for any team, for that matter, would be the Pirates’ Felipe Vásquez. But rumors have it that Pittsburgh is asking too much. Is he worth giving two or three top prospects for you? Besides, the Dodgers seem like frontrunners to acquire him. Kirby Yates also looks like a great fit, but the Padres appear to be in buyers mode, as they have inquired the Mets about bringing in “Thor”.
 
There are other names who could be pursuited. So far, Sergio Romo is the only addition and Cody Allen is doing work in the minors to try to earn a spot. Neither of them cost the Twins much. Maybe we should be expecting cheap signings like these two instead of big splashes. Maybe they will work. What would you do?
 
By this time tomorrow we will have our answers. Minnesota has to choose between shopping big and try to win it all this year or just modestly improve an already good team, patiently waiting for years to come and not compromising the long-term future.

For weeks it's been apparent that the Minnesota Twins need bullpen help. As we've gotten closer to the trade deadline the certainty that moves would be made has only become more clear. Tonight while in the midst of a battle with the Chicago White Sox, Derek Falvey was working the phones and landed RHP Sergio Romo from the Miami Marlins.
 
Romo was a free agent this offseason and signed with Miami on a one-year, $2.5 million pact. He was someone I liked for the Twins but the front office decided to stand pat after the acquisition of Blake Parker. Romo was abysmal to start the season for Miami but has been lights out of late, and his dominant slider remains as good as it's ever been.
 
Since May 22nd Romo has pitched in 22 games going 21.2 IP. He has a 2.49 ERA and a .585 OPS against. The strikeouts have been down this year and he was at just 16/3 K/BB over that stretch, but the stuff may be as good as it's ever been. Right now he owns a whiff rate near 14% in 2019 and his 40% chase rate is a career best.
 
When you've been doing this for as long as Romo has, and without ever being a velocity pitcher, it's the offspeed stuff that must work. Sergio throws his slider nearly 60% of the time and it's continued to be an incredible offering. His slider posts an RPM of 2852 which is 9th best among sliders in baseball this season.
 
Falvey obviously had to part with an asset in trade, and choosing Lewin Diaz makes a lot of sense here. He's a 22-year-old that posted a sub-.600 OPS at Fort Myers last season. Having put in significant work to get his body right this winter, he's having a breakout campaign with 19 HRs and an OPS north of .900 split between A+/AA. That's really where the good news for the Twins and Diaz ends however.
 
Lewin would need to be added to the 40 man roster this winter or be subject to the Rule 5 draft. He went unprotected and unchosen last year, but that wasn't going to happen after the results this year. In that scenario the Twins lose him for nothing. He's a great defender at first and a nice power bat, but he's also behind at least Miguel Sano, Brent Rooker, and Alex Kirilloff for major league reps at first base in the not-so-distant future.
 
This wasn't a one for one trade either. Minnesota also got back 2018 5th round pick Chris Vallimont from the Marlins. He's pitching at Low-A currently as a starter and the righty has been a high strikeout, low walk hurler in his young pro career. He too is 22-years-old but is not subject to 40 man necessity yet and gives the Twins depth on the mound, where they need it more. Reports have also suggested Minnesota picks up a PTBNL in the deal.
 
It would be hard to see a Diaz for Vallimont swap as anything but a win for Minnesota. They get a more usable asset and the expiration date is pushed out. If the assumption was that Diaz could be packaged to net a bigger return that's one thing, but you'd have to imagine Falvey explored those options as well. This isn't going to be the Twins only move, and probably not even their only move for the pen. As a first deal though, they smashed this one out of the park.
 
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Ted wrote "Arguably the most exciting game the Minnesota Twins have played in nearly a decade, the home team dropped a 14-12 affair last night (err this morning) at Target Field." In his recent post - Yankees blog. So I got to thinking - what are the best games the Twins have played - win or lose?
 
Do the two extra innings affairs with the Oakland A's count?
 
Certainly the game seven Jack Morris game is number one. I was there and will never forget it. (Don't tell me Jack isn't a hall of famer.)
 
And I would put game six with Puckett's HR in the twelfth right behind it ( I was there too - so bias is showing).
 
How about game seven of the 1987 World Series, the 500th world series game played, with the Vikings having to postpone their game for a day, where miscue after miscue by umps, teams, runners ended up with the Twins winning on Roy Smalley's 35th birthday and in his last game. He would appear four times in the WS and get on base four times. But this was more about Hrbek and first base and hitting a grand slam.
 
Or maybe game one in 1987 which was not a great game except we won behind Viola, it was the first WS game ever played in a dome, and Dan Gladden hit a grand slam?
 
In the 1965 World Series Jim Kaat out pitched Sandy Koufax to win game two and then lost in the best game - number 7 by a score of 2 - 0 with Koufax taking the series title for the Dodgers.
 
In 1962 Jack Kralick won a no-hitter 1 - 0. How is that for nail biting? May 11, 2011 Francisco Liriano won a no-hitter 1 - 0 to tie Jack Kralick's margin of victory. Dean Chance also had a one run margin for a no-hitter 2 -1.
 
When I looked up the Twins longest games I came up with the Tampa Bay Rays beating us in extra innings in 5 hours and 42 minutes this year, and then the Twins winning in 17 on a Kepler hit June 19. I would keep that on the list. Then June 27 we lost in 18 innings!
 
I have to have the 2009, 163rd game on my list - 6 -5, 12 innings, loser goes home final to the season! Bob Kneppel won for us - I cannot even remember him and Fernando Rodney lost for the Tigers! And we came back from a 3 - 0 deficit. Carlos Gomez scores on a Luis Castillo hit!
 
Then there are the Johan games -8/15/2006 - 8 innings, 1 run, 2 hits, 10 Ks (when Ks were harder to get) and we won 3 - 2 against Cleveland. 9/17/2005 seven innings against KC. No runs,1h, 1BB. 8in, 4H, 2BB, 13 K against White Sox on June 28, 2002. Poor Texas played against Johan in 2007 in what is arguably his best game with 83 of his 112 pitches for strikes, 8 innings no runs 2H 0 BB 17 K Twins won 1-0.
 
 
 
My ranking:
Game 7 1991
Game 6 1991
Game 163 2009
Johan Santana 2 hitter versus Texas 2007.
1962 Kralick No-hitter
2011 Liriano No-hitter
Johan Santana wins
Game 1 - 1987 WS
Game 7 - 1965 WS (the only loss I can put on the list)
Game 7 - 1987 WS
Game 2 - Yankee Series this week for tension and drama
June 19th - Kepler wins for us in 17

Fill it up with your favorites.

Needing a starting pitcher, the Minnesota Twins front office send minor leaguer Jermaine Palacios to the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi. Palacios had some hype but was never a top prospect, while Odorizzi had been largely mediocre and was set to turn 28. It’s hard not to see more upside in a big-league starter under team control, but this leap forward has been immense for the former Tampa starter.
 
Odorizzi was often chided for his efforts by Twins fans last season. He posted a 4.49 ERA backed by a 4.20 FIP. The 8.9 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 were right in line with career norms. On a bad team he was hardly a large issue and generally pitched better than the surface level numbers suggested. In 2019 he’s gone gangbusters though, and he’s made his first All Star game to show for it.
 
Cooling off some over the last few weeks, Odorizzi still owns a 2.73 ERA and 9.9 K/9 across 85.2 IP. His FIP and xFIP suggest a bit more regression could be coming, but there’s a visible change that’s been made by the pitcher Minnesota trots out as their number two starter. Having been a low 90’s guy his whole big-league career, Odorizzi has added two mph of velocity under the tutelage of Wes Johnson and is now averaging 93.1 mph on the pitch this season. Not only is he throwing harder, but Odorizzi has shifted his repertoire to flip a career high number of sinkers, taking away from both his cutter and splitter.
 
This new version of Odorizzi is giving up a career high percentage of hard-hit balls, but he’s missing bats at record marks as well. The 12.4% whiff rate is a new high-water mark, while his contact rate is down to just 74.3% and the zone contact rate stands under 80% (78.5%) for the first time in his career. A slight jump in hard hit rate could be explainable through the increased velocity, but even still with that development, missing more barrels is the key component here.
 
Over the course of his career Odorizzi has averaged 1.2 HR/9 and has never been below the 1.0 mark. Through his first 16 starts he’s allowed just eight homers and is at 0.8 HR/9 on the season. Shedding hits and walks as well, the 1.074 WHIP stands out on its own. Having been integrated into the Twins system a year ago, and now working with a pitching thinktank that’s been overhauled, he’s reaping the rewards.
 
Next season Odorizzi will find himself on the open market for the first time in his career. The Twins have a couple of holes in their rotation that they’ll need to commit arms to. We don’t yet know how the club will navigate the trade market but extending a guy they already have in house may certainly make some sense.
 
Last season Jake Odorizzi was getting his feet wet with Minnesota and simply going through the motions he had always practiced to compete. This season he’s been given a few new tools that have taken his game to the next level and everyone involved has benefitted from it.
 
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This article appears in full on Zone Coverage here. Please click through to read it.
 
Power ranking things can be a fun exercise.
 
It can be exhausting.
 
But few things get people talking as much as seeing their favorite things — be it baseball teams, foods or pop culture phenomena — ranked in an orderly list.
 
We’ve done this in this space before, but here’s how we’d power rank the current 25-man roster of the Minnesota Twins. Like most power rankings, a special formula is used with room for the human — in this case, me! — to make slight changes to the order that it spits out, including adjustments for recent performance.
 
1. SS Jorge Polanco: It’s not even really close. He has an OPS over 1.000 and he’s playing stellar defense at short. At 26 in July, he could still be a superstar in the making.
 
2. CF Byron Buxton: What a turnaround. Buck is hitting, running and throwing at a well above-average level, and is starting to look like the guy who had a “Torii Hunter floor” when he was coming up. He’s still prone to some ugly strikeouts, but he’s come so, so far.
 
3.SP Jake Odorizzi: Odorizzi is proving that you can work with the high fastball and make it happen. In fact, hitters know it’s coming and have still been powerless to do anything about it. Literally, Odorizzi has allowed just 0.68 homers per nine innings — a career-low.
 
4. LF Eddie Rosario: Rosario is picking up where he left off before injuring his shoulder last year as a low-OBP, low strikeout slugger who can put a powerful swing on just about anything. It’s a fun skill set because it’s so rare in the current MLB landscape.
 
5. SP Jose Berrios: It says a lot when a player is still in the top five among his peers and people are talking about his relative ‘struggles.’ Berrios has set the bar that high, and has still pitched the best baseball of his career despite velocity that has alternated between 91 and 94 mph over his last few starts. He maintains he’s just adding and subtracting to mess with hitters — and we believe him.
 
6. RF Max Kepler: His season is not unlike Rosario’s so far, though with a little more OBP and a little less power. Of course, for a leadoff hitter that isn’t a bad thing.
 
7. SP Martin Perez: Sure, his command has slipped a bit of late, but nobody saw this coming from Perez. Well, maybe somebody did.
 
8. 1B C.J. Cron: He’s not a man of many words, but he can really hit. Cron has some trouble with pitches off the plate, but not nearly enough for it to be any sort of concern as he’s fanning just 21.1 percent of the time — well below league average. Has bat. Will travel.

Michael Pineda made a start for the Minnesota Twins on Tuesday night in California against the Los Angeles Angels. He gave up a home run to Mike Trout during the second at bat of the game, the opposition was leading 3-0 entering the 3rd inning. That was your que to go and do a quick Twitter search, and it wouldn’t have been pretty. The reality is we’re seeing a shift in expectations.
 
Entering play on May 22 the Twins pitching staff owned the 7th best fWAR in baseball. The 3.68 ERA of Minnesota starters was 7th in the sport and 4th in the American League. No longer is this group the pitch to contact, look for worm burners, pray for rain type of collection. There are strikeout arms at the disposal of Rocco Baldelli everyone stands to benefit from a systemic change throughout the organization.
 
This isn’t to give Michael Pineda a pass. His first six starts in a Twins uniform were to the tune of a 6.21 ERA and .913 OPS against. He made it through the sixth inning just once and failed to advance beyond the fourth on two separate occasions. Having missed all the 2018 season, and over half of 2017, some level of rust was to be expected. Add in that three of those starts came against the Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies and it’s fair to see where danger may have been hiding.
 
Since his lackluster start Pineda has turned a significant corner. There’s no one foolish enough to suggest he’s a staff ace but a 4.50 ERA across 24.0 IP (four starts) is more than enough from the fifth guy in your rotation. He’s cut the opposing OPS down to .757 and while the homers still plague him, the 22/5 K/BB is plenty respectable.
Over the course of his career Pineda has always been a guy to get bitten by the longball. He’s got a career 1.3 HR/9 and has been at 1.7 dating back to 2016. He’s also always posted strong strikeout numbers and limited the number of walks. Avoiding damage by making a good number of longballs fall into the solo variety is a safe way to give them up if you’re going to toe that line.
 
There’s also a velocity decrease at play that could be hampering some of Pineda’s output. On the season he owns a 92.5 mph average, which is down from his 94.6 mph career mark. He didn’t see much warmth during Minnesota’s April, and the 93.3 mph averaging representing a season high came during an away game in Houston. As the summer trudges on, that will be something to monitor.
 
The rest of his peripherals suggest that we’re looking at a pitcher simply being dogged by the big blast. His 42.9% hard hit rate is a career worst by quite a bit, and it’s spiked the 46% fly ball rate and 18% HR/FB mark. He needs to keep the ball in the yard more, but so far has danced around danger well. A .286 BABIP is workable, and more fly balls kept in the yard should be convertible outs.
 
We’ll have to wait and see how future starts play out, but this is currently trending in the right direction. A 4.50 ERA isn’t going to have fans putting him in the discussion of Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, or Martin Perez, but it’s a solid mark you can be happy with. We aren’t looking at a Ricky Nolasco, Tommy Milone, or Hector Santiago situation here. Despite a fanbase that seems to still be treading carefully and waiting for the bottom to fall out, there’s a lot of handwringing over the production of a 5th starter that’s doing his job appropriately.
 
If you want to go out and throw your hands up each time Pineda toes the rubber and gives up three or four runs, be my guest. As much as I won’t be the one to stop those claims, I’ll also caution that he’s not an ideal fit for the bullpen, the depth behind him is currently uninspiring, and the most important factor is that he’s doing his job just fine. Minnesota could certainly afford to upgrade the fringes of its pitching staff, but that’s more matter of practice than it is an indictment on any one player.
 
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I will be the first to admit, I was absolutely stunned by the Twins poor start in 2018 and am equally as stunned by their dynamite start to 2019. All of you on Twins Daily are aware of this, but just to reiterate for the sake of context:
-The Twins came off of a 103-loss 2016 season to nab the second Wild-Card spot in 2017 with a record of 85-77.
-The Twins had an emerging group of youngsters such as Max Kepler, Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sanó, José Berríos, and Eddie Rosario that seemed poised to improve after strong finishes to 2017 (with the exception of Sanó, who as an All-Star but missed the last two months due to injury)
-The Twins also were anchored by veterans such as Brian Dozier, Kyle Gibson, Eduardo Escobar, Joe Mauer, and Jason Castro, who were all instrumental to the Twins' run at the end of 2017.
-The Twins then added veterans Addison Reed, Fernando Rodney, and Zach Duke to shore up a weak bullpen that waved goodbye to Brandon Kintzler at the 2017 Trade Deadline, when the Twins were below .500 and looked to be out of the race. They also traded for Jake Odorizzi, who the brass liked and believed had untapped potential (he was a former top prospect, after all) and signed starter Lance Lynn, who had a very good track record in St. Louis.
The result? A 7-4 start, followed by a 3-13 stretch that included an 8-game losing streak, en route to a disappointing 78-84 finish to the season. It also was the gut-wrenching goodbye to fan-favorites Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar, in addition to Duke, Rodney, Lynn, and, to my surprise, Ryan Pressly.
I, along with many other Twins fans, held on to hope for dear life until the Twins were swept in a three-game series in Kansas City after the All-Star Break. At that point, I knew and finally, reluctantly, accepted that it was over. A once-promising season thrown down the drain. However, looking back, is that final 78-84 mark actually surprising? And is it actually bad? Let's stop and consider.
It all started before the season started, when Ervin Santana, the ace of the Twins in 2017, delayed his surgery until February and would not be able to start the season on-time. As it turned out, he didn't throw a pitch until August. Then, the news broke that Jorge Polanco would miss 80 games with a suspension for testing positive for Stanozolol, a banned substance. The Twins were surely upset, but not panicked, as Lynn was signed and Escobar became the regular shortstop and hit very well.
In April, the Twins had three consecutive games postponed due to weather, which ended up giving the Twins 4 days off before going to Puerto Rico, where they played in a 16-inning game that resulted in a win vs the Indians. Then the 8-game losing streak began.
The barrage of setbacks then continued when it was announced that Jason Castro was going to miss the rest of the season. Jason Castro was not a huge weapon offensively at this point, but his value defensively was immense. The Twins turned to veteran Bobby Wilson, who almost gave up baseball before the season, to receive a bulk of the playing time alongside Mitch Garver, who was still very unpolished.
Byron Buxton then proceeded to make 2 trips to the Disabled List and ended up only playing in 28 games all season. That opened the door for Ryan LaMarre and, eventually, Jake Cave. Cave showed an ability to hit the ball, but he and Robbie Grossman in the outfield on a regular basis is clearly not ideal and a substantial downgrade from having Buxton in center, even if he put up mediocre numbers at the plate.
Then June rolled around and the Twins were treading water, fighting for their lives to stay alive. The Twins were forced into making the nuclear decision to send a struggling, and by some reports disinterested Miguel Sanó not to Triple-A, but to Single-A for a complete reboot. His struggles opened the door for Ehire Adrianza to play shortstop every day until Polanco returned. Similar to Cave, Adrianza is a decent player, but he is not a healthy, productive Sanó. The more bench players that have to play regularly, the harder it is to win games.
To compound that, Addison Reed, who was solid for the Twins early, started to break down from overuse and spent a lot of time on the Disabled List. To this day, he has not regained his already-declining velocity and was just recently Designated for Assignment.
The Twins embarked on a late-June, early-July, 9-game road trip to Chicago (3 with each team) and Milwaukee. The Twins went 1-8 on that trip and were, in my mind and the mind of most, dead in the water. Then they went 9-2 on a homestead against the Orioles, Royals, and Rays right before the All-Star Break and were hanging on by just enough of a thread to keep me optimistic. Then the aforementioned Royals series happened and I knew what little hope was left was gone.
The last week of July saw the departure of Brian Dozier, most notably. Another reason for the Twins struggles was that Dozier was never able to get it going after having a hot first week in Baltimore and Pittsburgh with 4 home runs. It was all downhill from there, though a dramatic walk-off grand slam in the last game before the break provided one last thing to cheer about before his send-off to LA.
To summarize, here is what happened to the Twins in 2018:
-Injured starting catcher, who was replaced by a veteran backup.
-Injured starting center fielder
-Suspended starting shortstop
-Injured ace
-Injured relief-ace
-Declining starting second baseman
-Disinterested former-All-Star third baseman who had to be demoted and rebooted
All things considered, it is no surprise that the Twins underperformed in 2018. All told, perhaps 78 wins is not so bad after all. 2019 is off to a great start; this was the expectation last year, but we're getting it a year late! In my opinion, this team is better than the Opening Day 2018 team.

Coming into the 2019 Major League Baseball season, relief pitching was a very serious question mark. For the most part, the guys Minnesota’s front office has told us to trust in have looked the part. Ryne Harper has been a great story, and Matt Magill has flashed solid stuff. The back end of Taylor Rogers, Blake Parker, and Trevor May work. Unfortunately, that’s where things end.
 
There’s been a revolving door at the bottom of Minnesota’s bullpen, and the options to call upon are dwindling. Fernando Romero has been up multiple times, without seeing any significant success. He’s been knocked around at Triple-A, and despite great stuff, the transition to relief hasn’t gone smoothly. We’ve seen Tyler Duffey a few times, and despite dominating Triple-A, the beautiful bender has yet to see solid run in the big leagues.
 
Rocco Baldelli has been given lefty Andrew Vasquez, and former starter Adalberto Mejia looks to have flamed out. Addison Reed was on a path back through a surprise rehab stint, but he’s been hit around the park for Rochester. The only other 40-man option is lefty Gabriel Moya, who has also been bad since returning to Triple-A and hasn’t ever shown a significant level of success at the big-league level.
 
Non-40-man options are also a difficult ask at this point. Jake Reed was going well for Rochester but has hit the skids. D.J. Baxendale and Ryan Eades have gaudy ERA numbers and are allowing far too much contact. Beyond that, you’d need to dip another level down and be relatively convinced that the big jump would be warranted.
The good news is that the Twins are 27-15 while looking in command of the AL Central. The bad news is that Trevor Hildenberger nearly surrendered a four-run lead, and Mike Morin was called upon to face both Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani in massive spots today. If that development alone doesn’t call for some action, I don’t know what does.
 
Craig Kimbrel still is unsigned and can be acquired for nothing more than cash. Yes, at this point you’d need to part with a draft pick to sign him. Waiting until after the draft could be smart, but the number of teams willing to bring him in without pick compensation being thwarted likely rises in number as well. On the trade front, there’s more than a handful of bad teams that can part will relievers. Typically deals are consummated in late June at the earlier. Though the asset capital may be higher when looking to acquire talent earlier in the year, it’s worth weighing what the immediate and extra impact would be should they get into Wes Johnson’s hands sooner.
 
At the end of the day it boils down to the simple principle that the Minnesota Twins have opportunity in front of them. Given their trajectory and roster construction, this isn’t a team that should be playing for 2020. You don’t need to mortgage the farm for a one-year run but capitalizing in years where you can make noise is a must. Right now, the greatest deficiency this group has is its bullpen. Although the collective has held strong, it’s been on the back of a small inner group that is going to be burned through come summer.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz