DocBauer

LOVE this stuff! Can't even begin to tell you how many pieces of paper I've filled up over the years with lineups and projectables. Of course, it never really matters as someone always exceeds, and someone always disappoints. But it sure is fun isn't it? I also agree and project a big rise in power over the next couple of seasons for our Twins. When you look at the potential to muscle up with guys like Sano, Buxton, Varga, Arcia, Dozier, Rosario, possibly Walker and Kepler both,and some additional infielders who are better than simply punch and judy hitters, you have to get pumped. But there is also some speed in there, which excites me. And while it hasn't entirely manifested itself, for rather obvious reasons, there is some solid OB potential as well. HR power is awesome, and can be a game, series and season changer. But given the choice of a station to station team with little speed, a lot of K's but legit 200 HR power, OR, a team with a solid OB, some speed, 300 doubles and only 150 HR's, I'm definatly taking the second option. I think Santa's BA drops, but his OB goes up, his SB's go up, and there is a slight uptick in power. 8 HR's, but 10 wouldn't surprise me. Dozier at 22, but more evened out between first and second half of the season. I think, overall, a few days off here and there to catch his breath, and hopefully a more stable spot in the every day lineup, I think this will be Dozier's best and most consistent season. Mauer, who I am addressing in a different thread, will return to form, and hit 12 HR's. Remember you read it here first when I say I could very defineately see 16. The next 3 get tough! No reason Vargas couldn't and shouldn't hit 30 plus. Except, oh yeah, he's a rookie. As few as 15 with some struggles, possible a trip on the Rochester shuttle for a couple weeks somewhere, but 30 potential....this and that...yin and yang...I'm saying he sticks despite some ups and downs. I'm saying he has positive hitters in front of him, and behind him, and oh yeah, a TON of talent and natural ability. At least 18, but I believe in thekid and we'll cut him some rookie slack and call it 23 HR's. Hunter hits next unless the warranty suddenly runs out. He could slide from last season, and smart money says at least a little regression. But I'm also a believer in baseball karma. I think excitement, energy, a great story, coming home, a nice ball park, what might be the last season in the sun culminating in a solid final season. I think Hunter dings 14 or 15. We'll go with the over here. Arcia is going to drop some jaws this season. He will strike out more than we want, but walk more than we expect, and put together a solid and somewhat surprising slash line. Do we really keep forgetting how young he is and how talented and potential filled? He absolutely will not hit his ceiling this year. And he will still provide some inconsistency that will tease and frustrate. That is why he's hitting mostly in the 5 and 6 spots. But he'll have 30 doubles, better overall slash marks, and 25-30 HR's. Let's split the difference and call it 27. Plouffe absolutely has the ability to crank out 21-23 HR's at 3B,and easily could, though his doubles would see a decline. While that would be very nice, I'm going to go with "not" here. The changes I've seen in his overall game leads me to believe he won't sacrifice upticks in overall contact and hitting approach simply for power. I'm seeing 15 dingers. Suzuki...yeah...probably 3. And you can call me an overly rosy optimist if you wish, but I have a gut feeling about Pinto. I don't believe we are talking the next Gary Carter here, but, I have a feeling his attitude and work ethic are real, as is the improvement we've heard whispers about. I believe he will be the backup catcher. I do believe he will perform well enough to stick, and to garner more playing time as he proves his mettle, with the occasional DH game as well. 7-10 HR's...let's just say 8 to be conservative, and combine it with Suzuki to call it a total of 11. So now we come to the bottom of the order, the CF position, and general "ick". I pray we get a combined .250-.260 ish AVG and OK OB% in the .320-.330 range between Hicks and Schafer, barring some big surprise. Don't want to be a downer, just don't have a lot of faith or enthusiasm at this point. Schafer seems to have little power, and Hicks, thus far, has shown little as well. And from the broken down swings I've seen here at TD, he's never going to with hips that fly open before the ball gets there. We're talking 5-6 HR's here...we'll be optimistic with 6. That's 139 dingers. Always going to have a few more from the other bench guys like Escobar and Nunez, a promotion or two and September. Figure 10 to 15 more for a 150-155 total for the team.

Fun history lesson! But now we know why some Twins pitching prospects are slow to be promoted: lollygagging!

First of all, leadoff is a title, and in truth, not a description. Anyone can "leadoff" an inning. The #1 BO guy we're talking about could easily bat "leadoff" a second time in a game, and often seems to do so. But regardless, his job is to make things happen, create opportunities, for the hitters behind him. Regardless of how many outs, if any. This can be done by getting on base, via speed and stolen bases, or XB power. In my younger days, I saw Boggs in Boston and Downing in California hit solid/great with good/great OB% and XB power, but couldnt steal a base if given a head start. Conversely, I saw guys like Vince Coleman, for example, hit some, but not necessarily have the great OB and little to no power, but excellent speed to stretch plays and put pressure on the opposition, as well as provide opportunities for the hitters behind him. Secondly, I've always held the belief that your #3 hitter should be one of your best all around hitters. Big power would be great, but its also to have a guy who can hit and get on base as well as provide some power. This allows him to drive in runs, but also help perpetuate an inning. From the past, again, guys like Hernandez, Grace and Joyner come to mind. (just examples, and co-incidence they happen to be first basemen) Mauer has caught a lot of grief in the past for not being a big power hitter or putting up big RBI totals. Santana has real ability to make things happen in the #1 or 2 spots. There are reasons for Dozier to hit in all 3 top spots. I don't like Mauer in the second spot due to lack of foot speed, and not hitting to the right side enough. But big OB% with 40 double power could make him enticing in the #1 hole. A return of Mauer being Mauer and I like him in the #3 spot. FWIW...with a possible flip-flop at the top... Santana Dozier Mauer Vargas Hunter Arcia Plouffe Suzuki Whoever does the best job in CF Best mix of hitting, power and speed and even handedness balance.

Killer first name the kid has!

I find your facts staggering! Not debatable...I trust you...but our Twins have out-homered the opposition THREE TIMES since 1983? I find that incredulous. Especially when I think about some of the teams in the past that featured guys like Hrbek and Gaetti and Puckett, not to mention Bruno. Wow! I do love power. I do want more power. Doesn't everyone? But power isn't everything, and please forgive me for stating the obvious. But I'd rather have 300 doubles plus from my team with a little speed and some good OB than 200 HR's and little or no speed and lower OB with high K rates....for example. There is some tremendous offensive potential forthcoming for the Twins...potentially. (the UGLY "P" word) Power, speed, and mixtures with the likes of Arcia, Vargas, Santana, Dozier, Buxton, Sano, Polanco, Rosario and others. Do you realize we may actually not have enough room for everyone in the next 2-3 years? Always thought the perfect lineup was 2 guys at the top of the lineup who gave you a nice combo of everything; Avg, OB, pop and speed. You followed that with a mix of LH/RH/SH hitters with variable skills but who could all give you 30 doubles and anywhere from 15-30 HR's, and a #9 hitter who could either surprise with power, or be a nice mixed bag who could help flip the lineup back over again. The Twins are sooooo close to this being a reality. Can the season start yet? LOL

Sano is young. He's athletically gifted, not just powerful. He is a former SS. He has a cannon for an arm. He wears his size and weight well. He's improved defensively not only season to season, but half season to half season. Granted, there might still be some growing pains at the milb AND ML level, but why are so many so quick and almost eager to move him off 3B before he even plays a single inning at the ML level? Is there some perception that he simply can't play the position that I've never heard of or read? Is there some perception that he will suddenly rise to ML stardom faster by being moved to and playing an unfamiliar positon such as 1B or OF? Even if that were true, would you really sacrifice an amazing talent at the 3B spot for 6 more months of ML time playing a so-so OF?

, Because Polanco isn't ready yet, nor is the solid but less talented Beresford and the Twins didn't get anyone else. And honestly if the team's biggest concern is a backup utility infielder, things are looking way up! But seriously, the guy can hit some, has some pop, can run a little and can fill in here and there at 3 or 4 spots. His time with the Twins is probably done after this year, but in the meantime, you could do a lot, lot worse for the last bench spot. Were I Molitor, not only would my coaches and I continue to work on his defense, (he's young and talented enough to still improve), but I'd have him in every single game I could in ST all across the four infield spots, and some OF play, just to see for sure what I had available to me as role/fill-in player.

Great and fun topic! And perfect time to bring it up. 1) Catching depth: for his sake, and the Twins, it should be Pinto. If reports are to be believed, he returned at the end of last season more confident in his defense. Despite some flaws, he was never reported bad in the minors, just needing some work. I still maintain Herrmann has potential as a decent bat and decent role player. But I also maintain he's never had a full year at AAA to settle in and work on things. This could and should change by next year, possibly September with Garver and Turner on the way up. 2) 5th SP spot: May. Talented, part of the future, started to settle in after a rough ML start last season, and coming off probably his best, most improved overall milb season. 3) Bullpen: Not going to finish the way it begins. I still don't get the Stauffer signing and remain doubtful unless its just to be a long reliever. Two spots open? Oliveros steps it up. Tonkin probably as well. This changes if we drop a SP candidate in to the pen. 4)DH if not Vargas? Pinto is the easy answer, and quite possibly the right one. But could easily see it being Hunter with Santana, Rosario or someone else sliding in a starting OF spot. 5) Santana sticking at SS? Yes. But it doesn't just depend on him. It also depends on the ongoing OF situation. Regardless, I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see him play some OF, letting Escobar rotate in at SS as well as being the utility infielder. 6) How rusty will Sano and Buxton be? Fairly, especially Sano. But they are WAY TOO TALENTED not to shake it off quickly. ST and then maybe a month at AA, very possible both could look like their old selves. 7) Mauer's power? Back to 40 doubles. If he does nothing but play in a healthy 150 games I could see 12 HR's. 16 isn't out of the question. 8) Molitor? A few more shuffles of the lineup depending on matchups. A return to a little more hit and run. More patience with prospects. A shout to the face is likely to also come with a pat on the butt. 9) Nolasco won't be a mess. He'll pitch like his career norms. With luck, he'll pitch well enough to be tradeable opening a spot for a May or Meyer to move in. 10) Unexpected prospect to shine? Rosario is too easy. I say Daniel Ortiz. Beresford might be ready to contribute in a utility role. Pitcher? Darnell in the bullpen. And I also like the Wheeler idea.

Berrios...if he's not the #1 prospect on your list, he probably is in your heart. I agree he probably begins the season in AA, but we should expect some sort of split season between there and Rochester. No matter how much I like this guy, I just don't see him in a Twins uniform this season, unless he would get a Sept audition. Right now we have one SP spot open and it will take an injury or trade to open another to get both May and Meyer in. I understand the preference and advantage of height. But as has been stated here and before, height isn't everything, and there have been a plethora of of good-great pitchers who were only 6'. Pedro Martinez always comes to my mind when I think about Berrios. I won't project stardom or ace-dom for the kid just yet, but, a little more work on his breaking stuff and a little more polish on that change up, and I feel he's about as close to a sure thing, can't miss as you can get. Velocity, athleticism, work ethic, attitude and determination, there's just soooo much to like here!

May was one of my top picks to click and guys to watch going in to last season. He didn't disappoint. And he is my early favorite to win the 5th SP job out of spring. Nothing against Milone, and I understand his neck issue, and I'll even disregard reports about decreasing velocity. This still a transitioning team situation, from the new manager and coaching staff, to the on the field and rising young players. May: A) younger better velocity and overall arm talent C) cheaper D) much higher ceiling E) probably a much higher floor as well F) under longer team control G) is coming off perhaps his best, most positive season yet showing growth and improvement. Milone is LH and has more ML innings. Is that a reason to commit to him over May? Not in my book.

Gibson ran hot and cold, not surprising for a rookie. But his hot was just that, and not lukewarm. As I've said before, it's easy to say someone looks good when they are "on". That's true for all of us. But there's a difference between a good performance, and showing the talent and results many times over. A little more consistency, a little more growth and development, coupled with size, youth and overall potential, it's not out of the realm of possibility that Gibson becomes our #2 SP. Possibly as early as this season.

Seen enough Banks's, Gasser's and Bumgarner's(?) over the years not to get too excited too fast. Not being pessimistic, just stating a fact. But the velocity, the solid/good secondary stuff, the control, his athleticism and build have me very intrigued. Add in his age, how he performed at the level he was at, and the quality peripherals overall, and I don't worry about the K rate at this time. Healthy, at least a slight lessening of the pitch count restrictions, more use of his slider, etc, etc, I'd expect to see at least a partial rise in K rate this season. I hope he goes to Ft Meyers and I hope he blows things up. But I wouldn't be shocked or upset if he went back to the Kernals for the first month or so, or extended ST with warmer weather, just to get off to a good start.

Entirely possible. Completely sold on Meyer, believe he needs to be at the ML level, and is ready to do so. (Barring just a bad ST) The problem is, right now, there is only ONE SPOT in the Rotation open, and May has just as much "right" to the spot, and has last season's experience to give him a leg up. So unless someone gets hurt...hope not...or someone is traded...i.e. Nolasco...there is a shortage of space. If Meyer isn't the guy immediately, I honestly struggle with whether or not he's better off pitching every 5th day at Rochester to work on those mechanics and repeat issues, OR, throwing on the side and pitching intermittently from the bullpen under the tutelage of the ML coaches.

Just out of curiosity, no disrespect or lack of excitement for Gordon and his ability and potential, but he just completed rookie ball. Meanwhile, the very talented Polanco is on pace to begin the 2015 season where he ended it, at AA. Polanco is a couple years older, 2 rungs higher on the milb ladder, and seems to possess hit, XB and RBI tools along with decent speed and possibly still budding HR power of a double digit variety. So what is it about the younger, rookie Gordon specifically that rates him higher?

I don't doubt Rosario long term. I am referring to being a CF candidate NOW. A disappointing year last season has been replaced by renewed optimism for this year based solely on his quality AFL? Really?

I have a quandary in regard to Polanco. I'm a believer. I have beenfor a while. (not like I actually KNOW anything, LOL)And I was an advocate for him playing more SS. (though I don't like the idea of Goodrum having to sacrifice for it) And I don't put a lot of faith, or lack there of, in milb error numbers for SS's or INF's in general. There are so many mitigating factors. What you're really looking for is ability, potential, and growth. And Polanco hits on all 3. But Dozier, turning 28 in May, is a bit of a late bloomer. But he's good. He's REAL good. And there's still room for improvement. He might just be the Twins positional MVP the past couple of seasons. (OK, debatable if that's saying a lot. I get it. But still...) Santana is an intriguing, young, athletic kid with potential, but has a ways to go. Suddenly he gets called up early. We all figure he'll sit on the bench for 7 days or so, then go back down. Instead, he plays some SS, but mostly CF, a position he's barely played before, and hits. And hits more. And becomes a catalyst. But, you know, he's going to get over this hot streak and come back down to earth soon. Except, he never does. And then he gets hurt, and you figure the bubble will surely burst now. Except, after a few games back getting his legs under him, he suddenly looks like the same hitting/offensive catalyst he was before. So where does Polanco fit here? Does Dozier go? Does Santana? Do one of them change positions? It's a good dilemma to have. Still though, it's a potential dilemma.

Interesting if somewhat obscure idea. kind out of left field, pun not necessarily intended. The answer is no. Not unless I can have in place at least a framework, if not an actual deal, for a re-sign. I'm not interested in high priced rental players, at this point, tht could influence the mortgage on my future plans.

Confused. I don't like pot. I don't advocate pot. But I don't hold it against those that do like it. And honestly, I don't care if Rosario tokes off the Diamond. But unless things like counting push-ups by 5's is just his sense of humor, I might just have a problem with Rosario's attitude. I am a big believer in what Rosario offers. I have been since the beginning. I hope I'm right. But I'm really confused how he can miss 50 games last season, never really seem to hit a groove when he comes back and put up mediocre numbers, and yet have TR and Molly both speak in terms of him being a viable candidate for the CF job. Is this some sort of secret motivational coach/GM speak for all the guys involved? Or do the "slow to promote" Twins actually feel Rosario is that close?

With athleticism, quick hands, nice hit tool, and the capacity to continue to grow physically, I've always seen him as a 15 HR guy once he settles in at a level and stays. I would be surprised at a 20 HR season or two at some point in his career. But 30+ plus doubles yearly plus a few triples along with 15 homers and high Avg hit tool, I am SO OK with him in a corner OF spot.

To very loosely paraphrase an old saying; "I guess heaven decided it needed a fan to keep score." Don't remember my first Twins game much either. Must gave been about 5. It was at the old Met with the little league team my father had coached in our hometown of Brookings SD. But I do remember Killebrew and Carew. One of the great things about sports is memories often have more to do with moments and emotion rather than events. Thank you for sharing. God bless and all my best.

May is my choice over Meyer, just barely, due to his ML time last season. There are a lot of guys who look good and fool people for a start or two, and then reality sets in. May did what you hope for, he settled down, learned and improved. Really, he should be that much better overall this season. A little better pitch economy, a few less walks...which is kind of the same thing to a degree...and I could see him as an IP boss and very solid #3 guy. Better than that? Hmmmm....dont know.

Burdi, Reed and Jones. May, Meyer and possibly Duffy and even Barrios all from the pitching portion of things. Rosario, Buxton, Sano and Polanco are all real candidates to make appearances. Wow!

I'm a huge optimist, but also a bit practical and reserved. But honestly, is there any real reason not to expect him at the ML level by the second half of the season?

Agreed! I remember commenting when he was first drafted that if I were the Twins I'd continue to have him work on the pitch. Even if it's an average pitch, with his great and slider, it's overall effectiveness could be excellent. Your recount of the event mentioned is tantalizing!

If I remember correctly, doesn't he have an inconsistent changeup he was working on? I know he doesn't really need it with the hard two pitch mix he possesses, but how great would it be to flash that third pitch here and there.