Lefty74

Am not anything close to a pro scout but saw McKay pitch and hit in 2016 over a 3 game series. He is VERY sturdy and I believe could be whatever a team wants to him to be. His swing is great and exit velocity is exceptional. Just very polished. As a pitcher very solid velocity with great depth on off spend. As stated by many his floor is #3. Probably never #1 but potential #2 and solid......low risk because he could do either. Not sure that warrants #1 pick in draft, but he would certainly leapfrog most of our current MILB pitchers.

It is likely that the new FO has added some analytical software that allows them to better predict Berrios MLB vs AAA performance. The fact that Molitor and others keep bringing up command means someone in FO is digging deep in this area. Intuitively we all know that MLB hitters miss far fewer fat pitches than AAA hitters--I believe the FO has a metric on the ERA difference based upon his command. They'd rather bring in a journeyman who isn't integral to long term plans than rush Berrios if he's not able to have at least solid success. I trust the FO on this one.

Absolutely love Buxton, but wow is he lost. Last night first 3 times up he was chewing and spitting sunflower seeds so fast it made my head spin. That type of nervousness is very concerning. He is so lost he doesn't know what to do....he needs to slow it all down. During the last game of KC series he hit a foul ball and did not know where it went. That is hard to fathom for an MLB hitter. Very rare when they foul one off and have no clue as to where it went. If it happens with any consistency it's a huge concern as it may signify that he doesn't know where the bat head is at impact....well maybe 11k's is already showing that . He has to figure it out, we need his D.

I'm not sure where this is coming from? Look at the Cleveland Indians, I think they have more MN kids than the Twins--off the top on my head-- Smith, Milbrath, Mingo, Goihl, Brown, Hentges and probably missing some. My impression is the Twins have been tougher on MN kids than some teams.....

Apologies--didn't see the Extension Candidates thread until after posting this one! Would have added to that one.

After reading Souhan's article on the Twins this a.m. I wanted to see if opinions have changed from this Aug 2015 article. I am very concerned about Sano's strikeouts and defense. He was out of shape last year, came to camp in better shape this year, however I get the feeling he isn't driven to be great. Souhan points out he (and presumably Twins front office/coaches) were expecting more leadership from Sano but he seems to spend all his free time in the locker room on his phone. Would really like to get a feeling that he was 100% all in as a MN Twin. All that being said I am in the camp that we should try to lock him up through at least a couple of free agency years. If he fulfills even 80% of original expectations he is well above replacement level. In today's market is that $100M+? With last years less than stellar year it may be the right time to strike.

Great article, this is very encouraging! It doesn't take a lot to make a big difference when it comes to pitch framing. It will be really interesting to see if Castro can put most of the Twins pitchers Strike % above the MLB average line as he did with Houston.

Great article! The heat maps clearly show there is a difference. I'm actually more encouraged by the fact that Suzuki seemed to dismiss framing as an art; he is one tough SOB, but old school. Since we don't have power pitchers any extra strike is huge.

Athletically seems to be a lot like Dave Winfield. He could have easily been an MLB pitcher. Dave didn't turnout too bad! Take Hunter Greene!

I think everyone agrees that Sano is a very large, very strong man. He is able to carry weight that most people could not without being considered obese. I do believe he was 20+ pounds over his optimal weight last year. Just watching him run it appeared his thighs were rubbing together and he seemed to waddle. He was still very athletic and performed okay. For me the concern is the message it sent. After a strong first year he came to camp overweight and it appeared he had not worked out much. Didn't practice in the outfield much prior to spring training, heads to NYC instead of working in Fort Myers, etc. That is not what I expect from a professional, especially one with the potential to become a superstar. If losing weight is an example of him committing to reach his potential then I think we are all in for a great ride. I've got my fingers crossed!

Really thinking Buxton, Sano, Castro and Berrios could add 15+ to last years 59. 80 or 81 seems like a stretch so I'm guessing Under, but really hoping to be wrong!

Not that I will be given the option to fill out the lineup card , but I would have Dozier in the lineup close to everyday. 2B, DH and even via giving him a 1B glove and telling him to spend time in spring training learning the position.

I think the Twins painted themselves into a corner and therefore Adrianza with likely stick on the 25 man. Having Sano and Polanco on one side of the infield is very scary for Twins pitchers. We don't strike out a ton of hitters and Polanco doesn't get to a lot of balls. My totally unscientific opinion is that it will be better for our pitchers to overindex defense at SS. Could be that Polanco starts the season at SS but after a short period of time will fill in at 2B and 3B, still getting plenty of AB's.

Agree with those who see this as a calculated gamble. Very low chance he gets picked up and if he does it isn't that painful. We already have too many DH types and Falvey/Levine probably believe there are many external options as well.

I agree with these comments. While our scouting department has not done a good job drafting pitchers some of it has to fall on development. We have a close relative that is a minor league pitcher in the Indians org and everything stated is true. They have a separate program for every pitcher and development goals for the off season. Velo camps, weight, flexibility and strength targets that they take seriously. The culture in Cleveland is outstanding and they really try to understand what works for each pitcher. The Trevor Bauer example is a good one. His style and personality is very unique and they've allowed him to do what works for him. If you look through the Indians org you will see lots of outstanding pitching prospects, including many who are outperforming their draft position by wide margins.

As noted by many this is on the previous FO and in particular the scouting team. I don't think Falvey/Levine have changed the scouting team to any significant degree. That concerns me a lot as scouting is pick and shovel work with lots of subjectivity. Best predictor of the future is the past and I was hoping for more change in this critical function. I understand that Falvey/Levine will most likely bring some advanced tools but it is hard to believe how poorly we have drafted--in particular pitchers--over the last 10+ years. I don't think new tools/metrics alone solve this.

While it is early to evaluate the 2015 draft class we should all be concerned. To continually miss on prospects is really troubling. Equally troubling to me is that the new regime seemed to swap the deck chairs instead of making sweeping changes in the scouting department. I think most people were expecting a house cleaning.

2 things I would like other opinions (or facts if you have them) on: 1) Watching games as a Twins fan it seems Joe, more than any other player, gets called out on strikes on pitches out of the zone. When he was in his prime if he didn't swing at a close pitch the umpires gave him the benefit of the doubt.......not now. This clearly has added to his strikeout totals 2)In the recent Strib article Joe made a statement to the affect that "we're always adjusting at the plate". I just don't see him making adjustments. Certainly you have to work with what the pitcher gives you, however I'd like to see him come up to the plate with a mindset that he's looking to drive the ball early in the count. Why not look for the first pitch on the inner half and if it's there unload? It looks to me that pitchers are really comfortable throwing to Joe since he's so predictable.

Sano has elite skills with the bat, top 1% of MLBers in terms of power and potential value to a team. Unfortunately so far his dedication and commitment to his craft seems to be more in the bottom 10% (I think I may be generous here) of MLBers. Coming in overweight, not taking much practice in the outfield prior to spring training, heading to NYC when he should have been working on his game, yukking it up with opposing players, etc have left many far from convinced that he has the drive to be great. I'm not sure he has a mentor on the Twins or from the DR that can get him to realize his potential and the commitment it will take to reach it. A merely good Miguel Sano is still of value to the Twins but a fully engaged, committed to excellence Miguel Sano could carry the team for weeks at a time. Really hoping he matures and understands he could be a superstar, but it's going to take a lot of work.

The main reason is overall value. Polanco had a WAR of -0.1, Sano 1.3 and Vargas, 0.6. Much of the reason for Polanco's low WAR was due to defense, same for Sano. In Vargas' case I just don't see 0.6 being a B. I understand that WAR needs to be taken with a grain (or many) of salt, but I really think that Polanco and Sano need to deliver in the field as well as the plate.

3 examples- Polanco--B Sano--B- Vargas--B

Using this grading curve I think you need to re-think the inflield and outfield grades. I don't necessarily disagree with the pitching grades, however in comparison the others are way too optimistic.

Seth, This is great work and I have to say it's surprising the #'s are so high. The thing that shocks me is that we could be in the middle of the pack with the poor job done drafting pitchers. Comparing our pitching drafts vs. any Central Division team I have to believe we would be at the bottom and no other team would be close.

The big "if" is the assumption DeLeon is having a lot of MLB success with the Dodgers. Reading all the fangraphs articles and seeing DeLeon's MLB pitching line to date he is no sure thing. He may be a star and he may be something less. Dozier is a proven star, controllable for 2 years and based upon track record is more likely to success than DeLeon in 2017. The Twins deserve multiple solid prospects for Dozier, not just DeLeon.

Yikes! The comment about Twins winnng 10 more games next year due to current talent improving concerns me. Is the goal to win 69 games in 2017, is that progress? I would consider 69 wins a really awful year.