Jim Crikket

In preparation for the first season of the new affiliation between the Twins and my hometown Cedar Rapids Kernels, I’ve embarked on a series of “get to know them” posts. The intention is to give my fellow Kernels fans a little bit of information about the Twins prospects we may be seeing in Kernels uniforms over the course of the summer, understanding full well that it’s impossible to know exactly who will fill the Kernels’ roster several months before Opening Day. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/KernelsTwins-300x168.jpg (Image: Kernels.com) In Part 1 of the series, I looked at the catchers that are likely to spend time in Cedar Rapids, as well as a few that could find their way here if things fall their way. In this post, we’ll look at corner infielders. (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.) A year ago, the Twins’ Class A team in Beloit had a couple of their biggest power-hitting prospects covering the corner infield positions in Miguel Sano and Kennys Vargas. The Kernels won’t have the organization’s top prospect playing third base for them in 2012, as Beloit did, but there are certainly some similarities between the Snappers’ corner infielders and those that are likely to be manning those positions in Cedar Rapids this summer. Rory Rhodes – Age 21 – Bats R/Throws R 2012: Beloit (Class A – MWL) and Elizabethton (Rookie – Appy) [TABLE] [TD=align: left]G [/TD] [TD=align: left]PA [/TD] [TD=align: left]BA [/TD] [TD=align: left]OPS [/TD] [TD=align: left]K [/TD] [TD=align: left]BB [/TD] [TD=width: 28, align: left]2B [/TD] [TD=width: 28, align: left]3B [/TD] [TD=width: 31, align: left]HR [/TD] [TD=align: right]70 [/TD] [TD=align: right]291 [/TD] [TD=align: right].236 [/TD] [TD=align: right].697 [/TD] [TD=align: right]75 [/TD] [TD=align: right]27 [/TD] [TD=align: right]11 [/TD] [TD=align: right]2 [/TD] [TD=align: right]8 [/TD] [/TABLE] http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Rhodes2012a-224x300.jpg Rory Rhodes As Twins fans well know, and as Kernels fans are likely to discover, the Twins have historically had quite a pipeline of players coming up through their system out of Australia. Rory Rhodes is yet another member of the fraternity from “down under.” While still just 21 years old entering the season, 2012 was the fourth year the Brisbane native played in the Twins minor league organization. Rory started the year with Beloit and struggled offensively, hitting less than .200 in his 26 games with the Snappers. (I did personally see him hit a HR in Cedar Rapids against the Kernels that went about as far as I’ve seen one hit to LF in recent years, however.) He fared better once back with E’town, but still struck out more than he and the Twins would like. Rhodes started his career with the Twins as a third baseman, but was moved across the diamond after a rotator cuff injury a couple of years ago. He did play several games in the outfield in 2012, however. At 6′ 7″ and 200+ pounds, it won’t be hard for Kernels fans to spot the Aussie, wherever he may be positioned on the field. Travis Harrison – Age 20 – Bats R/Throws R 2012: Elizabethton (Rookie – Appy) [TABLE] [TD=align: left]G [/TD] [TD=align: left]PA [/TD] [TD=align: left]BA [/TD] [TD=align: left]OPS [/TD] [TD=align: left]K [/TD] [TD=align: left]BB [/TD] [TD=width: 28, align: left]2B [/TD] [TD=width: 28, align: left]3B [/TD] [TD=width: 31, align: left]HR [/TD] [TD=align: right]60 [/TD] [TD=align: right]253 [/TD] [TD=align: right].301 [/TD] [TD=align: right].845 [/TD] [TD=align: right]51 [/TD] [TD=align: right]24 [/TD] [TD=align: right]12 [/TD] [TD=align: right]4 [/TD] [TD=align: right]5 [/TD] [/TABLE] The Twins used the supplemental first round draft pick they acquired by letting Orlando Hudson walk away as a free agent to draft Harrison with the 50th overall pick of the 2011 amateur draft. He held out until just before the 2011 signing deadline when he signed for just over $1 million, but the late signing meant he didn’t get any games in with any Twins affiliate in 2011. Travis spent 2012 with Elizabethton, where he put up plenty of offense with 21 extra-base hits, including five home runs. However, Harrison also committed 24 errors at third base in 143 chances covering 59 games at the position. By comparison, Sano committed 42 errors in 361 chances at the position for Beloit. In other words, for the second consecutive season, the Twins will apparently be looking at their Class A affiliate to determine if one of their most promising offensive prospects can learn to play a passable third base. Regardless of his defensive skills, however, Harrison is likely to be the Kernels infielder with the most promise. He appears to be a consensus “top 15″ prospect in the Twins organization among those who publish such ratings and had even been listed among the top 10 Twins prospects prior to the Denard Span and Ben Revere trades that brough a couple of highly regarded starting pitching prospects in to the Twins organization. D. J. Hicks – Age 22 – Bats L/Throws R 2012: Elizabethton (Rookie – Appy) [TABLE] [TD=align: left]G [/TD] [TD=align: left]PA [/TD] [TD=align: left]BA [/TD] [TD=align: left]OPS [/TD] [TD=align: left]K [/TD] [TD=align: left]BB [/TD] [TD=width: 28, align: left]2B [/TD] [TD=width: 28, align: left]3B [/TD] [TD=width: 31, align: left]HR [/TD] [TD=align: right]31 [/TD] [TD=align: right]136 [/TD] [TD=align: right].270 [/TD] [TD=align: right].817 [/TD] [TD=align: right]37 [/TD] [TD=align: right]19 [/TD] [TD=align: right]7 [/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right]4 [/TD] [/TABLE] Hicks, who was drafted in the 17th round in 2012 out of the University of Central Florida, signed with the Twins in time to get half a season in with Elizabethton. Hicks split his time between 1B and DH with E’town, but apparently held his own on defense, committing just two errors in his 20 games at first base. He will need to make better contact, however, as he had six more strikeouts (37) than he had hits (31) on the season. If the Kernels happen to host their traditional “get to know the Kernels” event two days before the April 4 season opener and Hicks is a member of their roster, the event could double as a birthday bash for the big first baseman, who will turn 23 years old on April 2. It’s challenging to identify other corner infielders in the organization that could find their way to Cedar Rapids in 2013. It seems that, in all likelihood, the three guys listed above will get the lion’s share of innings at 1B, 3B and DH, with the odd outfielder or middle infielder taking a turn at 1B or 3B when manager Jake Mauer needs someone to fill in at one of the corners. However, injuries and promotions often mean players get opportunities to move up that they might not otherwise get. With that in mind, let’s at least take a look at some guys that could be called on… and called up… if necessary. Aderlin Mejia was signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2010 and played his first year of professional baseball in the Dominican Summer League. He’s spent the past two seasons with the GCL Twins (though he did get a a few opportunities to move across the Fort Myers complex and suit up for the high-A Fort Myers Miracle in 2012). Aderlin hit well in 2012, with a .313 batting average and a .767 OPS. Perhaps most encouraging is that he struck out just 15 times in over 200 plate appearances. Mejia should perhaps be considered more likely to fill a middle infielder role, given that he played only 21 games at 3B last year and 27 in the middle infield, but if the Kernels need a 3B due to promotions or injuries, Mejia looks as likely to be a call-up option as anyone. Bryan Haar and Joel Licon almost look like identical bookends as potential first and third basemen, respectively. Haar was drafted by the Twins in the 34th round of the 2012 draft out of the University of San Diego. Licon was chosen nine rounds earlier than Haar out of Orance Coast College. Both signed in time to get a fair number of games in with the GCL Twins, where both put up identical .250 batting averages. Both struggled to make contact, with Haar racking up two fewer Ks than he had hits and Licon striking out two more times than he hit safely. Haar is strictly a first baseman and is already 23 years old, while Licon turned 22 in December and moved around a bit, playing 10 games in the outfield, 12 games in the middle infield and 22 games at 3B (in addition to 7 games at DH). While both are almost certainly going to be held back in extended spring training and start their years with one of the short-season rookie league teams, it’s possible either could be called on in Cedar Rapids if injuries and/or promotions leave the Kernels in need of a corner infielder later in the year. Finally, one of the more intriguing young (emphasis on young) corner infield prospects in the Twins organization is Javier Pimentel. Pimentel was signed, for over half a million dollars in bonus money, as a shortstop out of the Dominican Republic in 2010. After splitting 2011 between the Dominican Summer League and the Twins GCL team, Javier spent all of 2012 in the GCL at age 18, splitting his time mostly at 1B and 3B. His stat line was, to be frank, really bad. He didn’t hit. He didn’t walk. He struck out a lot. But if you assume the scouts who liked him enough to recommend that kind of bonus saw something in him that projects in to a Big League ballplayer, maybe we just need to be patient until he grows in to his frame and figures the game out. Then again, Javier was signed the same week in 2010 that the Twins signed Tsuyoshi Nishioka, so maybe their scouts just had one very bad week that year. It’s all but impossible for Pimentel to see Cedar Rapids this season, but for now, let’s just remember the name. While the Twins do have a history of drafting college age corner infielders, it’s pretty unlikely that they would send a brand new draftee to Class A the same summer he’s drafted, so we shouldn’t look for much corner infield help from the 2013 draft at least until the 2014 season. Next: Part 3 – Middle Infielders - JC

It's an interesting approach and one I haven't given thought to before. Now, if EVERYONE took that same approach, it would really screw around the numbers, wouldn't it?

Almost two weeks ago, I posted my take on this year’s Baseball Hall of Fame ballot. I listed the 10 players I would have voted for and then I predicted that none of the players on this year’s ballot would garner the necessary 75% support to be elected to the Hall by the actual voting members of the BBWAA this year. Wednesday afternoon at 1 pm CT, we will find out if I was right. (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.) http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/Baseball-Hall-Of-Fame.jpg I thought, at the time I wrote my piece, that my prediction that nobody would be elected this year would be a “fringe” prediction. I’d seen some people predict Biggio would be a first ballot HOFer and others thought Piazza might have a shot or that Morris might finally get elected. But since I posted my opinion, I’ve noticed that a lot of people… including a significant number of voting members of the BBWAA… are likewise predicting that nobody will be elected. What’s getting a lot of attention, in light of those predictions, is the anticipated public reaction, should the BBWAA voters indeed throw a shutout. I guess that hasn’t happened in something like 15 years or more, so I suppose it is a bigger deal than I thought it would be. But really, I can’t believe people should be all that surprised, considering the combination of: An unusually large ballot. A significant number of big name players eligible for the first time, almost all of which carry the yoke of suspected or confirmed PED usage. Few carry-over players from last year that have slam-dunk HOF credentials, even absent PED suspicions. The bottom line is that if you want to try to make a case for NOT voting for them, you could do so for every player on the ballot, without even having to resort to the silly, “I won’t vote for anyone his first year of eligbility,” thing. That being the case, why should anyone be surprised if more than 25% of the voters do, in fact, choose to make a case for not voting for each player? Some people, though, think the result would be a travesty. Other than the Hall, itself, which could see attendance at the annual induction ceremony dwindle to an all-time low, since none of the inductees by the Veterans Committee are even still alive (should be a short ceremony, eh?), I’m not sure why anyone should really mind. I’ve read articles making the case that a shutout would indicate the process is broken… that the voters must be allowed to vote for more than 10 players. I disagree. If anything, I think it indicates that the process is working the way the Hall has always seemed to want it to work. They’ve liked that it’s a tough admission ticket in to that club. As I’ve written in the past, I don’t like the idea that many voting members of the BBWAA have chosen to designate themselves as the morality policy for potential HOF ballplayers. I just don’t think that they, as a group, are in any way morally superior to the players they’re sitting in judgment of. But, unless the rules change would be to clarify to voters that they must not hold suspected PED use against a player and instead must vote purely on his talent between the lines, changing the rules won't stop voters from exercising their right to stick it to Barry Bonds. No, letting the voters vote for more players will just make it easier for the borderline players to get elected. It would also make it much easier to get the 5% necessary to stay on the ballot for another year. Over time, I think we’d see ballots with 50-60 names on it. Is that really what they want? I hope not. Look, I believe Jack Morris is worthy. I believe Tim Raines is, too. I also am aware that with the high quality players scheduled to be added to the ballot in the next couple of years, it could very well mean those and other players I think are worthy will not ultimately be elected. That’s unfortunate. It’s also the way it’s supposed to work. The nervous nellies who would have us believe that we’ll have more years, in the future, where nobody is elected than we have when the writers do elect someone are just plain over-reacting. I know… sports writers over-reacting… hard to believe, isn’t it? But the rules changes being advocated would, I believe, be an over-reaction that would make the decision to give the league that wins the All-Star Game the home field advantage in the World Series seem thoughtfully well-measured, by comparison. Next year, we’ll see Greg Maddux, Frank Thomas and Tom Glavine added to the ballot. If we go through the process with those guys eligible, not to mention holdovers like Morris, Raines, Biggio and Piazza, and we still don’t see anyone elected, I’ll be shocked. Not gonna happen. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see three players elected in next year’s class. If the Hall did change the rules to allow voters to vote for, say, 15 players, you might see twice that many elected… maybe more. I’m a “big Hall” guy, but even I have limits and I don’t want to see Baseball’s HOF start to look like the NFL’s, where half a dozen or more players get elected every year. But that’s exactly what is likely to happen if you let voters check 15 boxes. How many writers would NOT consider Maddux, Thomas and Glavine among the 15 most worthy players? How many would take advantage of the relaxed standard to vote for Morris, Raines, McGriff, Martinez, or any of the other borderline players? Relaxing the voting rules to allow voters to put a check mark beside more than 10 players would be a stupid thing to do and I’m pretty confident the decision makers at the Hall of Fame will refrain from doing that. We should thank them for their restraint… and thank God that Bud Selig isn’t in charge of making the rules for the HOF. - JC

Almost two weeks ago, I posted my take on this year’s Baseball Hall of Fame ballot. I listed the 10 players I would have voted for and then I predicted that none of the players on this year’s ballot would garner the necessary 75% support to be elected to the Hall by the actual voting members of the BBWAA this year. Wednesday afternoon at 1 pm CT, we will find out if I was right. (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.) http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/Baseball-Hall-Of-Fame.jpg I thought, at the time I wrote my piece, that my prediction that nobody would be elected this year would be a “fringe” prediction. I’d seen some people predict Biggio would be a first ballot HOFer and others thought Piazza might have a shot or that Morris might finally get elected. But since I posted my opinion, I’ve noticed that a lot of people… including a significant number of voting members of the BBWAA… are likewise predicting that nobody will be elected. What’s getting a lot of attention, in light of those predictions, is the anticipated public reaction, should the BBWAA voters indeed throw a shutout. I guess that hasn’t happened in something like 15 years or more, so I suppose it is a bigger deal than I thought it would be. But really, I can’t believe people should be all that surprised, considering the combination of: An unusually large ballot. A significant number of big name players eligible for the first time, almost all of which carry the yoke of suspected or confirmed PED usage. Few carry-over players from last year that have slam-dunk HOF credentials, even absent PED suspicions. The bottom line is that if you want to try to make a case for NOT voting for them, you could do so for every player on the ballot, without even having to resort to the silly, “I won’t vote for anyone his first year of eligbility,” thing. That being the case, why should anyone be surprised if more than 25% of the voters do, in fact, choose to make a case for not voting for each player? Some people, though, think the result would be a travesty. Other than the Hall, itself, which could see attendance at the annual induction ceremony dwindle to an all-time low, since none of the inductees by the Veterans Committee are even still alive (should be a short ceremony, eh?), I’m not sure why anyone should really mind. I’ve read articles making the case that a shutout would indicate the process is broken… that the voters must be allowed to vote for more than 10 players. I disagree. If anything, I think it indicates that the process is working the way the Hall has always seemed to want it to work. They’ve liked that it’s a tough admission ticket in to that club. As I’ve written in the past, I don’t like the idea that many voting members of the BBWAA have chosen to designate themselves as the morality policy for potential HOF ballplayers. I just don’t think that they, as a group, are in any way morally superior to the players they’re sitting in judgment of. But, unless the rules change would be to clarify to voters that they must not hold suspected PED use against a player and instead must vote purely on his talent between the lines, changing the rules won't stop voters from exercising their right to stick it to Barry Bonds. No, letting the voters vote for more players will just make it easier for the borderline players to get elected. It would also make it much easier to get the 5% necessary to stay on the ballot for another year. Over time, I think we’d see ballots with 50-60 names on it. Is that really what they want? I hope not. Look, I believe Jack Morris is worthy. I believe Tim Raines is, too. I also am aware that with the high quality players scheduled to be added to the ballot in the next couple of years, it could very well mean those and other players I think are worthy will not ultimately be elected. That’s unfortunate. It’s also the way it’s supposed to work. The nervous nellies who would have us believe that we’ll have more years, in the future, where nobody is elected than we have when the writers do elect someone are just plain over-reacting. I know… sports writers over-reacting… hard to believe, isn’t it? But the rules changes being advocated would, I believe, be an over-reaction that would make the decision to give the league that wins the All-Star Game the home field advantage in the World Series seem thoughtfully well-measured, by comparison. Next year, we’ll see Greg Maddux, Frank Thomas and Tom Glavine added to the ballot. If we go through the process with those guys eligible, not to mention holdovers like Morris, Raines, Biggio and Piazza, and we still don’t see anyone elected, I’ll be shocked. Not gonna happen. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see three players elected in next year’s class. If the Hall did change the rules to allow voters to vote for, say, 15 players, you might see twice that many elected… maybe more. I’m a “big Hall” guy, but even I have limits and I don’t want to see Baseball’s HOF start to look like the NFL’s, where half a dozen or more players get elected every year. But that’s exactly what is likely to happen if you let voters check 15 boxes. How many writers would NOT consider Maddux, Thomas and Glavine among the 15 most worthy players? How many would take advantage of the relaxed standard to vote for Morris, Raines, McGriff, Martinez, or any of the other borderline players? Relaxing the voting rules to allow voters to put a check mark beside more than 10 players would be a stupid thing to do and I’m pretty confident the decision makers at the Hall of Fame will refrain from doing that. We should thank them for their restraint… and thank God that Bud Selig isn’t in charge of making the rules for the HOF. - JC

Since we’ve officially turned the calendar to 2013, it means Spring Training gets underway in just a few weeks and before you know it, we’ll be getting ready for Opening Day! http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/KernelsTwins-300x168.jpg (Image: Kernels.com) With this being the first year of the new Class A affiliation between the Twins and my hometown Cedar Rapids Kernels, I’m looking forward to the opportunity to bring more Kernels-centric writing to Knuckleballs and I figure there’s no time like the present to get started. (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.) Over the coming days (or perhaps weeks), I’m going to try to introduce most, if not all, of the players that we may expect to see wearing Kernels uniforms this summer. Granted, there’s no way of knowing with any certainty who we’ll actually find on the Kernels’ roster to open the season, but we can certainly make some educated guesses… and if I run out of those, I’ll just pull a few wild names out of thin air and talk about those players, too! The Opening Day roster will be limited to 25 players, but we’ll have no such limits here! It took almost no time at all for me to throw together a list of about 35 players in the Twins organization that look to me like reasonable bets to spend some time in Cedar Rapids this summer. Some will start the year in extended spring training and perhaps spend time with one of the Twins’ rookie league teams before, hopefully, getting promoted to Cedar Rapids. Others may open the season a rung higher on the organizational ladder with the High-A Fort Myers Miracle and miss out on being a Kernel altogether. But I’m relatively confident that most of the players we include in this series will wear a Kernels uniform at some point during the upcoming season. For the benefit of those Kernels fans who are less familiar with the Twins organization, we should probably explain that the Twins have two “rookie level” short-season teams below the Class A Kernels. The lowest level is the Fort Myers team in the Gulf Coast League and the next level up is Elizabethton TN in the Appalachian League. Those Kernels who earn a promotion out of Cedar Rapids will find themselves with the Fort Myers Miracle in the “high-A” Florida State League. Let’s kick off this series by looking at a group of catchers that Kernels fans might want to get to know. To my mind, the most likely catching options for Cedar Rapids to start the season would come from the trio of Jhonatan Arias, Tyler Grimes and Jairo Rodriguez. Here’s just a bit about them: Jairo Rodriguez - Age 24 – Bats R/Throws R 2012: Beloit (Class A – MWL) [TABLE] [TD=align: left]G[/TD] [TD=align: left]PA[/TD] [TD=align: left]BA[/TD] [TD=width: 41, align: left]OPS[/TD] [TD=width: 26, align: left]K[/TD] [TD=width: 31, align: left]BB[/TD] [TD=width: 28, align: left]2B[/TD] [TD=width: 28, align: left]3B[/TD] [TD=width: 31, align: left]HR[/TD] [TD=align: right]64[/TD] [TD=align: right]243[/TD] [TD=align: right].265[/TD] [TD=align: right].678[/TD] [TD=align: right]40[/TD] [TD=align: right]18[/TD] [TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: right] 0[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [/TABLE] http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/Rodriguez12a.jpg Jairo Rodriguez Outside of just six games at DH, Jairo made the rest of his starts behind the plate in 2012. He threw out 24 of 66 runners attempting to steal for a very respectable 36% throw-out rate. Rodriguez was signed by the Twins out of Venezuela and spent his first three seasons in summer leagues in Venezuela and the Dominican Republic. He spent 2010 and 2011 playing in US rookie leagues and the full 2012 season at Beloit. At 24 years old, Rodriguez would be older than most players in the Midwest League, so even if Rodriguez starts the year in Cedar Rapids, I could see the Twins pushing him up to Fort Myers at the first opportunity, assuming he performs at acceptable levels. Tyler Grimes – Age 22 – Bats R/Throws R 2012: Beloit (Class A – MWL) [TABLE] [TD=align: left]G[/TD] [TD=align: left]PA[/TD] [TD=align: left]BA[/TD] [TD=width: 41, align: left]OPS[/TD] [TD=width: 26, align: left]K[/TD] [TD=width: 31, align: left]BB[/TD] [TD=width: 28, align: left]2B[/TD] [TD=width: 28, align: left]3B[/TD] [TD=width: 31, align: left]HR[/TD] [TD=align: right]105[/TD] [TD=align: right]381[/TD] [TD=align: right].202[/TD] [TD=align: right].653[/TD] [TD=align: right]99[/TD] [TD=align: right]43[/TD] [TD=align: right]17[/TD] [TD=align: right]3[/TD] [TD=align: right]7[/TD] [/TABLE] http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/GrimesJune2012z-225x300.jpg Tyler Grimes Grimes made 77 appearances at shortstop and 18 at second base (plus 1 at 3B and 7 as DH) in 2012. Grimes was drafted by the Twins in the 5th round of the 2011 amateur draft out of Wichita State. He has not hit the ball real well in roughly a season and a half at Beloit, though at least he has shown a little power. After the 2012 season, he spent time at the the Fall Instructional League learning the catcher position. Grimes could open the season with the Kernels, repeating Class A, or potentially be held back in extended spring training to work more on his catching skills with the Twins instructional staff in Fort Myers before starting his season. It will be very interesting to see how the catching experiment works out for Tyler. Jhonatan Arias – Age 23 – Bats R/Throws R 2012: Elizabethton (Rookie – Appy League) [TABLE] [TD=align: left]G[/TD] [TD=align: left]PA[/TD] [TD=align: left]BA[/TD] [TD=width: 41, align: left]OPS[/TD] [TD=width: 26, align: left]K[/TD] [TD=width: 31, align: left]BB[/TD] [TD=width: 28, align: left]2B[/TD] [TD=width: 28, align: left]3B[/TD] [TD=width: 31, align: left]HR[/TD] [TD=align: right]30[/TD] [TD=align: right]113[/TD] [TD=align: right].301[/TD] [TD=align: right].728[/TD] [TD=align: right]15[/TD] [TD=align: right]7[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [/TABLE] Jhonatan got in just 27 games behind the dish in 2012, but he threw out 11 of 30 attempted base stealers for a 37% rate. Of the three catchers I see as most likely to spend significant time in Cedar Rapids, he appears to have the most promising offensive skills. Arias was signed out of the Dominican Republic and spent 2007 and 2008 playing in the Dominican Summer League. In 2009 he played for the Gulf Coast League Twins and in 2010 he moved up to Elizabethton. In 2011, he split time between E’town and Beloit, but struggled at the plate in his time with the Snappers. During the 2011 Fall Instructional League, Arias reportedly was tried out on the pitching mound, but he spent 2012 in Elizabethton back behind the plate. If I had to bet, I’d expect the majority of the Kernels’ catching duties in 2013 will be shared by some combination of these three players, but there are a few younger catchers who spent time with one or both of the short-season teams in 2012 and could end up in Cedar Rapids at some point this season. If the Twins do decide to bring in younger catchers, look to see Bo Altobelli, Kelly Cross and/or Bryan Santy. Altobelli, who turns 22 in February, was drafted in the 21st round last June out of Texas Tech and signed with the Twins in time to get 18 games in behind the plate in Elizabethton. He hit just .230 and threw out just one of the 15 baserunners who attempted to steal against him. Cross will turn 21 during Spring Training. He was drafted in the 26th round out of his Texas high school in 2010. He signed his contract just before the signing deadline and caught three games for the GCL Twins that summer. He also spent most of the past two seasons with the same GCL team. He caught just eight games for Elizabethton last season. He hasn’t seemed to figure out what to do with a bat in his hands, yet, hitting just .167 in his GCL and Appy games combined during 2012, but he did throw out an impressive 47% of attempted base stealers (15 of 32). Santy played just 19 games for the GCL Twins in 2012 after the 22 year old was drafted in the 30th round out of the University of Washington. He not only threw out seven of the 16 runners who attempted to steal off him, but he also hit .296 and got on base at a .418 clip. Those are offensive numbers you won’t see in many other young Twins catching prospects. Of course, Santy was older than most of the pitchers he was likely facing in the GCL, which has me wondering whether the Twins might consider pushing him up a couple of levels over the course of 2013. If so, we might see him in CR. Finally, there are two other catching prospects that I would consider long-shots to see in a Kernels uniform this season. The Twins drafted Jorge Fernandez in the 7th round of the amateur draft last year, but Fernandez was drafted out of the International Baseball Academy in Puerto Rico and will just turn 19 in March. He caught 30 games for the GCL Twins last year with moderate success. I suspect he’ll spend all of 2013 in rookie leagues at either Fort Myers or Elizabethton, but I suppose there’s an outside chance he could find his way to Cedar Rapids late in the year. One other catcher, Michael Quesada, contributed a bit at Elizabethton in 2012. Quesada was a low round draft pick in 2010 but as he was signed out of junior college, he’s older than Cross. Like some others on this list, Quesada has struggled a bit at the plate, but has had some success throwing out runners. Quesada, however, was suspended in August after failing a drug test, so he will start the season completing the remainder of a 50-game suspension. Unfortunately, since he was on the Elizabethton roster when he tested positive, the suspension doesn’t pick back up again until E’town’s short-season schedule resumes in June, so it will be August before he can suit up for any affiliate. In my view, the Twins could stand to upgrade their catching at the low-minors level and I would not be disappointed to see them draft a college catcher or two in the top 10-15 rounds of the June amateur draft. With the accelerated signing period, I suppose that could result in Cedar Rapids seeing such a 2013 draftee behind the plate before the end of the season, but it’s not very likely. Next up: Part 2: Corner infielders. - JC

Since we’ve officially turned the calendar to 2013, it means Spring Training gets underway in just a few weeks and before you know it, we’ll be getting ready for Opening Day! http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/KernelsTwins-300x168.jpg (Image: Kernels.com) With this being the first year of the new Class A affiliation between the Twins and my hometown Cedar Rapids Kernels, I’m looking forward to the opportunity to bring more Kernels-centric writing to Knuckleballs and I figure there’s no time like the present to get started. (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.) Over the coming days (or perhaps weeks), I’m going to try to introduce most, if not all, of the players that we may expect to see wearing Kernels uniforms this summer. Granted, there’s no way of knowing with any certainty who we’ll actually find on the Kernels’ roster to open the season, but we can certainly make some educated guesses… and if I run out of those, I’ll just pull a few wild names out of thin air and talk about those players, too! The Opening Day roster will be limited to 25 players, but we’ll have no such limits here! It took almost no time at all for me to throw together a list of about 35 players in the Twins organization that look to me like reasonable bets to spend some time in Cedar Rapids this summer. Some will start the year in extended spring training and perhaps spend time with one of the Twins’ rookie league teams before, hopefully, getting promoted to Cedar Rapids. Others may open the season a rung higher on the organizational ladder with the High-A Fort Myers Miracle and miss out on being a Kernel altogether. But I’m relatively confident that most of the players we include in this series will wear a Kernels uniform at some point during the upcoming season. For the benefit of those Kernels fans who are less familiar with the Twins organization, we should probably explain that the Twins have two “rookie level” short-season teams below the Class A Kernels. The lowest level is the Fort Myers team in the Gulf Coast League and the next level up is Elizabethton TN in the Appalachian League. Those Kernels who earn a promotion out of Cedar Rapids will find themselves with the Fort Myers Miracle in the “high-A” Florida State League. Let’s kick off this series by looking at a group of catchers that Kernels fans might want to get to know. To my mind, the most likely catching options for Cedar Rapids to start the season would come from the trio of Jhonatan Arias, Tyler Grimes and Jairo Rodriguez. Here’s just a bit about them: Jairo Rodriguez - Age 24 – Bats R/Throws R 2012: Beloit (Class A – MWL) [TABLE] [TD=align: left]G[/TD] [TD=align: left]PA[/TD] [TD=align: left]BA[/TD] [TD=width: 41, align: left]OPS[/TD] [TD=width: 26, align: left]K[/TD] [TD=width: 31, align: left]BB[/TD] [TD=width: 28, align: left]2B[/TD] [TD=width: 28, align: left]3B[/TD] [TD=width: 31, align: left]HR[/TD] [TD=align: right]64[/TD] [TD=align: right]243[/TD] [TD=align: right].265[/TD] [TD=align: right].678[/TD] [TD=align: right]40[/TD] [TD=align: right]18[/TD] [TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: right] 0[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [/TABLE] http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/Rodriguez12a.jpg Jairo Rodriguez Outside of just six games at DH, Jairo made the rest of his starts behind the plate in 2012. He threw out 24 of 66 runners attempting to steal for a very respectable 36% throw-out rate. Rodriguez was signed by the Twins out of Venezuela and spent his first three seasons in summer leagues in Venezuela and the Dominican Republic. He spent 2010 and 2011 playing in US rookie leagues and the full 2012 season at Beloit. At 24 years old, Rodriguez would be older than most players in the Midwest League, so even if Rodriguez starts the year in Cedar Rapids, I could see the Twins pushing him up to Fort Myers at the first opportunity, assuming he performs at acceptable levels. Tyler Grimes – Age 22 – Bats R/Throws R 2012: Beloit (Class A – MWL) [TABLE] [TD=align: left]G[/TD] [TD=align: left]PA[/TD] [TD=align: left]BA[/TD] [TD=width: 41, align: left]OPS[/TD] [TD=width: 26, align: left]K[/TD] [TD=width: 31, align: left]BB[/TD] [TD=width: 28, align: left]2B[/TD] [TD=width: 28, align: left]3B[/TD] [TD=width: 31, align: left]HR[/TD] [TD=align: right]105[/TD] [TD=align: right]381[/TD] [TD=align: right].202[/TD] [TD=align: right].653[/TD] [TD=align: right]99[/TD] [TD=align: right]43[/TD] [TD=align: right]17[/TD] [TD=align: right]3[/TD] [TD=align: right]7[/TD] [/TABLE] http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/GrimesJune2012z-225x300.jpg Tyler Grimes Grimes made 77 appearances at shortstop and 18 at second base (plus 1 at 3B and 7 as DH) in 2012. Grimes was drafted by the Twins in the 5th round of the 2011 amateur draft out of Wichita State. He has not hit the ball real well in roughly a season and a half at Beloit, though at least he has shown a little power. After the 2012 season, he spent time at the the Fall Instructional League learning the catcher position. Grimes could open the season with the Kernels, repeating Class A, or potentially be held back in extended spring training to work more on his catching skills with the Twins instructional staff in Fort Myers before starting his season. It will be very interesting to see how the catching experiment works out for Tyler. Jhonatan Arias – Age 23 – Bats R/Throws R 2012: Elizabethton (Rookie – Appy League) [TABLE] [TD=align: left]G[/TD] [TD=align: left]PA[/TD] [TD=align: left]BA[/TD] [TD=width: 41, align: left]OPS[/TD] [TD=width: 26, align: left]K[/TD] [TD=width: 31, align: left]BB[/TD] [TD=width: 28, align: left]2B[/TD] [TD=width: 28, align: left]3B[/TD] [TD=width: 31, align: left]HR[/TD] [TD=align: right]30[/TD] [TD=align: right]113[/TD] [TD=align: right].301[/TD] [TD=align: right].728[/TD] [TD=align: right]15[/TD] [TD=align: right]7[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [/TABLE] Jhonatan got in just 27 games behind the dish in 2012, but he threw out 11 of 30 attempted base stealers for a 37% rate. Of the three catchers I see as most likely to spend significant time in Cedar Rapids, he appears to have the most promising offensive skills. Arias was signed out of the Dominican Republic and spent 2007 and 2008 playing in the Dominican Summer League. In 2009 he played for the Gulf Coast League Twins and in 2010 he moved up to Elizabethton. In 2011, he split time between E’town and Beloit, but struggled at the plate in his time with the Snappers. During the 2011 Fall Instructional League, Arias reportedly was tried out on the pitching mound, but he spent 2012 in Elizabethton back behind the plate. If I had to bet, I’d expect the majority of the Kernels’ catching duties in 2013 will be shared by some combination of these three players, but there are a few younger catchers who spent time with one or both of the short-season teams in 2012 and could end up in Cedar Rapids at some point this season. If the Twins do decide to bring in younger catchers, look to see Bo Altobelli, Kelly Cross and/or Bryan Santy. Altobelli, who turns 22 in February, was drafted in the 21st round last June out of Texas Tech and signed with the Twins in time to get 18 games in behind the plate in Elizabethton. He hit just .230 and threw out just one of the 15 baserunners who attempted to steal against him. Cross will turn 21 during Spring Training. He was drafted in the 26th round out of his Texas high school in 2010. He signed his contract just before the signing deadline and caught three games for the GCL Twins that summer. He also spent most of the past two seasons with the same GCL team. He caught just eight games for Elizabethton last season. He hasn’t seemed to figure out what to do with a bat in his hands, yet, hitting just .167 in his GCL and Appy games combined during 2012, but he did throw out an impressive 47% of attempted base stealers (15 of 32). Santy played just 19 games for the GCL Twins in 2012 after the 22 year old was drafted in the 30th round out of the University of Washington. He not only threw out seven of the 16 runners who attempted to steal off him, but he also hit .296 and got on base at a .418 clip. Those are offensive numbers you won’t see in many other young Twins catching prospects. Of course, Santy was older than most of the pitchers he was likely facing in the GCL, which has me wondering whether the Twins might consider pushing him up a couple of levels over the course of 2013. If so, we might see him in CR. Finally, there are two other catching prospects that I would consider long-shots to see in a Kernels uniform this season. The Twins drafted Jorge Fernandez in the 7th round of the amateur draft last year, but Fernandez was drafted out of the International Baseball Academy in Puerto Rico and will just turn 19 in March. He caught 30 games for the GCL Twins last year with moderate success. I suspect he’ll spend all of 2013 in rookie leagues at either Fort Myers or Elizabethton, but I suppose there’s an outside chance he could find his way to Cedar Rapids late in the year. One other catcher, Michael Quesada, contributed a bit at Elizabethton in 2012. Quesada was a low round draft pick in 2010 but as he was signed out of junior college, he’s older than Cross. Like some others on this list, Quesada has struggled a bit at the plate, but has had some success throwing out runners. Quesada, however, was suspended in August after failing a drug test, so he will start the season completing the remainder of a 50-game suspension. Unfortunately, since he was on the Elizabethton roster when he tested positive, the suspension doesn’t pick back up again until E’town’s short-season schedule resumes in June, so it will be August before he can suit up for any affiliate. In my view, the Twins could stand to upgrade their catching at the low-minors level and I would not be disappointed to see them draft a college catcher or two in the top 10-15 rounds of the June amateur draft. With the accelerated signing period, I suppose that could result in Cedar Rapids seeing such a 2013 draftee behind the plate before the end of the season, but it’s not very likely. Next up: Part 2: Corner infielders. - JC

Vargas is still just 22 years old and won't turn 23 until mid-season. That's really not at all "old" for high-A. The time he lost to his drug suspension certainly didn't help his development, but while he's not going to play gold glove defense any time soon, he can hit a baseball a very, very long way.

Yesterday, I asked readers to endure a recitation of my childhood memories as I looked back at the most exciting Twins season in my memory, 1967. It was Rod Carew’s Rookie of the Year season and, while the Twins ultimately lost out to the Red Sox for the AL pennant, it was followed shortly by a couple of very successful seasons in 1969 and 1970 when Carew helped lead the Twins to the first two AL West Division championships. (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com. Part 1 of the series can be found by clicking here.) Today, I’m going to discuss lessons that I believe should be learned from the years that followed those incredible seasons. While Carew would never again reach the postseason with the Twins (and would never play in a World Series for anyone), he did have several more pretty amazing years with the Twins. He won six more batting titles to go with the one he won under Billy Martin in 1969. He won an MVP award in 1977, when he put up a 1.019 OPS (long before we knew what OPS was) for a 4th place team. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Metropolitan-Stadium_1972+StevenRSwanson.jpg A sparce crowd at Metropolitan Stadium in 1972 (Photo: Steven R. Swanson) I missed most of that, though. By the mid 1970s, I had pretty much tuned the Twins out. I wasn’t the only one, apparently. By 1974, the Twins were averaging just over 8,000 fans for their home games. Twins owner Calvin Griffith could have gone one of two directions at that point. He had a couple of legitimate stars on his team, Carew and pitcher Bert Blyleven, both in the prime of their careers. He could have chosen to build a better team around them over the next couple of years and make an effort to compete. Charley Finley was starting to disassemble his powerhouse Athletics and the Seitz decision would soon set Andy Messersmith and Dave McNally free of their contracts and open the door to free agency. Griffith’s other option was to trade away Carew, Blyleven and anyone else who might command real money soon and attempt to rebuild his team with young (and inexpensive) prospects. Obviously, Griffith being Griffith, the latter was the only option with any chance of happening. But what if Griffith had been willing and able to invest, rather than divest? Would the team have improved and brought fans back to the Met? Would the Twins then have been in a better position to command a new stadium of their own rather than being forced to share the Metrodome with the Vikings? There’s no way to know, of course. What we can and do know, however, is that a lot of fans lost interest in the Twins during the mid to late 1970s. I was one of them. As I think back through my 52 years of Twinsfandom, that era is probably the stretch when I was the least interested in what was going on with the Twins. I can only distinctly remember three trips to the Twin Cities to watch baseball from the time I graduated from high school in 1974 through the rest of the decade. I think about how many more times I would have watched two future Hall of Famers play baseball if only the owner had shown some kind of commitment to winning. It wasn’t until guys like Puckett, Gaetti, Hrbek and Brunansky developed in to a talented core in Minnesota in the mid 1980s that I got interested enough again to regularly drive up to the Twin Cities for games. I believe that the people running the Twins now are flirting dangerously with the possibility of history repeating itself. Those who advocate for the idea of blowing up the roster and rebuilding gradually with the highly touted group of prospects in the organization seem to think that letting the Twins continue to lose close to 100 games over the next year or two is a necessity. We’re told that, if we’re patient, the team will be much improved and be ready to compete by 2014 or 2015. But do we really believe that Miguel Sano, Kyle Gibson, Eddie Rosario, Alex Meyer and Byron Buxton are going to be ready to win… not just contribute… at the Major League level by then? Maybe Griffith was planning on first round picks like Rick Sofield, Paul Croft and Lenny Faedo being ready to lead the Twins back in to contention by the late 70s, too. Instead, the Twins continued to play in front of more empty seats than filled seats at Met Stadium for several more years and continued to spiral deeper in to oblivion until they won only 60 games in 1982. Even the move to a new indoor stadium couldn’t significantly rebuild the fan base at that point. What if we’re wrong about the next wave of uber-prospects being ready to seriously compete in the Big Leagues by 2015? What if it takes them longer? What if, like with Hrbek, Gaetti and Viola, this group loses big chunks of games for a few years even after they arrive in Minnesota and it’s 2019 or 2020… or later… before they reach their potential? That’s not exactly unlikely, is it? The past two years have seemed hellish to Twins fans, but how many people will be watching Twins games at Target Field if the Twins go the better part of a decade or more during which coming even close to a .500 record is unlikely? How many will even be watching on television? I wish I had watched Rod Carew play baseball more than a handful of times in the 1970s. How many young fans will grow old regretting not showing up to watch Joe Mauer play baseball in his prime because the team wouldn’t put enough talent around him to make a trip to the ballpark worthwhile? How long will it take to get those fans interested again? Some people will tell us that Griffith had no other choice than the one he made… the advent of free agency was a paradigm shift that he could neither foresee nor afford financially to adapt to. That may be true. I have no way of knowing. But the advent of free agency clearly made owning and operating a competitive Major League Baseball team difficult for all but the wealthiest owners. Today, I believe Major League Baseball is quite possibly nearing another era of potentially dramatic change in how the business is run. I don’t think any of us can predict, with any certainty, the state of television five years from now. It’s quite possible that it will be significantly different than it is today. The billion dollar media rights deals that large market teams are signing could create even more significant chasms between the “haves” and “have nots” in baseball than the eras of free agency and new stadiums did. And what happens when cable operators and their subscribers (and potentially even the government) step up and refuse to allow continuance of an environment where subscribers must pay dramatically higher rates for cable television, driven almost solely by the cost of carrying sports programming? If that bubble bursts before teams in middle markets, like Minnesota, get their turn at the trough, the resulting competitive imbalance could last for a generation. Those issues will have to be addressed by whoever baseball decides will succeed Bud Selig as Commissioner. But in the mean time, the people running the Twins have to be making long term plans for the continued financial viability of their franchise. They probably genuinely believed that a new stadium would allow them to field consistently competitive teams a few years ago when they were lobbying for public financing, but clearly Target Field no longer guarantees anything. MLB’s financial model appears to be taking another dramatic turn and a nice stadium is no longer enough to assure long term solvency, much less competitiveness. As a result, I believe that the deeper the Twins allow this competitive hole they’re in to get, the greater the risk that we’ll see another 1970s-like loss of interest by the fan base that will simply perpetuate the problem. I see it as imperative for the Twins to invest enough money in their roster to be competitive EVERY year if they’re going to remain a viable organization in to the future. They must keep fans coming to the ballpark and they absolutely need to make the team valuable enough to cash in on other media revenue streams sooner, rather than later. Doing otherwise risks dooming the franchise to being non-competitive until such time that large market teams finally agree to a more equitable business model… and we know that won’t happen any time soon. Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe the next crop of kids coming up will hit the ground running and immediately capture the imagination and interest of Twins fans far and wide, leading to the next great golden era of Twins baseball, which will lead to vast riches for the Twins owners and secure the franchise’s future for generations to come. I just think the odds of that happening are long… too long for the Twins front office to bet the organization’s future on it. I was 14 years old when Rod Carew’s 1970 Twins won the AL West Division and I turned 31 before my favorite team gave me something to cheer about again in 1987. I hope it won’t be 2027 before kids who cheered on Joe Mauer’s 2010 Central Division Champions get to feel that excitement again. - JC

Yesterday, I asked readers to endure a recitation of my childhood memories as I looked back at the most exciting Twins season in my memory, 1967. It was Rod Carew’s Rookie of the Year season and, while the Twins ultimately lost out to the Red Sox for the AL pennant, it was followed shortly by a couple of very successful seasons in 1969 and 1970 when Carew helped lead the Twins to the first two AL West Division championships. (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com. Part 1 of the series can be found by clicking here.) Today, I’m going to discuss lessons that I believe should be learned from the years that followed those incredible seasons. While Carew would never again reach the postseason with the Twins (and would never play in a World Series for anyone), he did have several more pretty amazing years with the Twins. He won six more batting titles to go with the one he won under Billy Martin in 1969. He won an MVP award in 1977, when he put up a 1.019 OPS (long before we knew what OPS was) for a 4th place team. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Metropolitan-Stadium_1972+StevenRSwanson.jpg A sparce crowd at Metropolitan Stadium in 1972 (Photo: Steven R. Swanson) I missed most of that, though. By the mid 1970s, I had pretty much tuned the Twins out. I wasn’t the only one, apparently. By 1974, the Twins were averaging just over 8,000 fans for their home games. Twins owner Calvin Griffith could have gone one of two directions at that point. He had a couple of legitimate stars on his team, Carew and pitcher Bert Blyleven, both in the prime of their careers. He could have chosen to build a better team around them over the next couple of years and make an effort to compete. Charley Finley was starting to disassemble his powerhouse Athletics and the Seitz decision would soon set Andy Messersmith and Dave McNally free of their contracts and open the door to free agency. Griffith’s other option was to trade away Carew, Blyleven and anyone else who might command real money soon and attempt to rebuild his team with young (and inexpensive) prospects. Obviously, Griffith being Griffith, the latter was the only option with any chance of happening. But what if Griffith had been willing and able to invest, rather than divest? Would the team have improved and brought fans back to the Met? Would the Twins then have been in a better position to command a new stadium of their own rather than being forced to share the Metrodome with the Vikings? There’s no way to know, of course. What we can and do know, however, is that a lot of fans lost interest in the Twins during the mid to late 1970s. I was one of them. As I think back through my 52 years of Twinsfandom, that era is probably the stretch when I was the least interested in what was going on with the Twins. I can only distinctly remember three trips to the Twin Cities to watch baseball from the time I graduated from high school in 1974 through the rest of the decade. I think about how many more times I would have watched two future Hall of Famers play baseball if only the owner had shown some kind of commitment to winning. It wasn’t until guys like Puckett, Gaetti, Hrbek and Brunansky developed in to a talented core in Minnesota in the mid 1980s that I got interested enough again to regularly drive up to the Twin Cities for games. I believe that the people running the Twins now are flirting dangerously with the possibility of history repeating itself. Those who advocate for the idea of blowing up the roster and rebuilding gradually with the highly touted group of prospects in the organization seem to think that letting the Twins continue to lose close to 100 games over the next year or two is a necessity. We’re told that, if we’re patient, the team will be much improved and be ready to compete by 2014 or 2015. But do we really believe that Miguel Sano, Kyle Gibson, Eddie Rosario, Alex Meyer and Byron Buxton are going to be ready to win… not just contribute… at the Major League level by then? Maybe Griffith was planning on first round picks like Rick Sofield, Paul Croft and Lenny Faedo being ready to lead the Twins back in to contention by the late 70s, too. Instead, the Twins continued to play in front of more empty seats than filled seats at Met Stadium for several more years and continued to spiral deeper in to oblivion until they won only 60 games in 1982. Even the move to a new indoor stadium couldn’t significantly rebuild the fan base at that point. What if we’re wrong about the next wave of uber-prospects being ready to seriously compete in the Big Leagues by 2015? What if it takes them longer? What if, like with Hrbek, Gaetti and Viola, this group loses big chunks of games for a few years even after they arrive in Minnesota and it’s 2019 or 2020… or later… before they reach their potential? That’s not exactly unlikely, is it? The past two years have seemed hellish to Twins fans, but how many people will be watching Twins games at Target Field if the Twins go the better part of a decade or more during which coming even close to a .500 record is unlikely? How many will even be watching on television? I wish I had watched Rod Carew play baseball more than a handful of times in the 1970s. How many young fans will grow old regretting not showing up to watch Joe Mauer play baseball in his prime because the team wouldn’t put enough talent around him to make a trip to the ballpark worthwhile? How long will it take to get those fans interested again? Some people will tell us that Griffith had no other choice than the one he made… the advent of free agency was a paradigm shift that he could neither foresee nor afford financially to adapt to. That may be true. I have no way of knowing. But the advent of free agency clearly made owning and operating a competitive Major League Baseball team difficult for all but the wealthiest owners. Today, I believe Major League Baseball is quite possibly nearing another era of potentially dramatic change in how the business is run. I don’t think any of us can predict, with any certainty, the state of television five years from now. It’s quite possible that it will be significantly different than it is today. The billion dollar media rights deals that large market teams are signing could create even more significant chasms between the “haves” and “have nots” in baseball than the eras of free agency and new stadiums did. And what happens when cable operators and their subscribers (and potentially even the government) step up and refuse to allow continuance of an environment where subscribers must pay dramatically higher rates for cable television, driven almost solely by the cost of carrying sports programming? If that bubble bursts before teams in middle markets, like Minnesota, get their turn at the trough, the resulting competitive imbalance could last for a generation. Those issues will have to be addressed by whoever baseball decides will succeed Bud Selig as Commissioner. But in the mean time, the people running the Twins have to be making long term plans for the continued financial viability of their franchise. They probably genuinely believed that a new stadium would allow them to field consistently competitive teams a few years ago when they were lobbying for public financing, but clearly Target Field no longer guarantees anything. MLB’s financial model appears to be taking another dramatic turn and a nice stadium is no longer enough to assure long term solvency, much less competitiveness. As a result, I believe that the deeper the Twins allow this competitive hole they’re in to get, the greater the risk that we’ll see another 1970s-like loss of interest by the fan base that will simply perpetuate the problem. I see it as imperative for the Twins to invest enough money in their roster to be competitive EVERY year if they’re going to remain a viable organization in to the future. They must keep fans coming to the ballpark and they absolutely need to make the team valuable enough to cash in on other media revenue streams sooner, rather than later. Doing otherwise risks dooming the franchise to being non-competitive until such time that large market teams finally agree to a more equitable business model… and we know that won’t happen any time soon. Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe the next crop of kids coming up will hit the ground running and immediately capture the imagination and interest of Twins fans far and wide, leading to the next great golden era of Twins baseball, which will lead to vast riches for the Twins owners and secure the franchise’s future for generations to come. I just think the odds of that happening are long… too long for the Twins front office to bet the organization’s future on it. I was 14 years old when Rod Carew’s 1970 Twins won the AL West Division and I turned 31 before my favorite team gave me something to cheer about again in 1987. I hope it won’t be 2027 before kids who cheered on Joe Mauer’s 2010 Central Division Champions get to feel that excitement again. - JC

Rod Carew spent 12 seasons in a Minnesota Twins uniform. He was the American League Rookie of the Year in 1967 and was lured away by the sunshine to southern California to play for the Angels following the 1978 season. At least the Twins managed to get some talent in return for Carew (Ken Landreaux, Dave Engle, Paul Hartzell, Brad Havens), rather than lose him to free agency when Carew essentially forced Twins owner Calvin Griffith in to a trade. (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com) http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/CarewStatue.jpg The Rod Carew bronze statue outside Target Field The 12 seasons Carew spent in Minnesota were some of the best… and worst… years I’ve gone through as a Twins fan. I believe that there are lessons to be learned from Carew’s era, for the Twins ownership and its fans, though I suspect neither group is inclined to heed them… at least not consciously. I turned five years old near the middle of the Twins’ first season in Minnesota. We made one or two annual trips up to see the Twins play in those days (usually just one… the trip up from Albert Lea was not as quick and easy before I-35), but we watched games on TV all summer long. They were road games, mostly. Home games were seldom televised, so as not to inhibit fans from buying tickets, I suppose. But I had my transistor radio to take to bed with me to listen to the games I couldn’t watch. So yes, I’ve been a fan through three World Series and even more Division Series. But the most exciting SEASON of Twins baseball in my memory was a year the Twins didn’t even play postseason baseball. That was Rod Carew’s rookie year, 1967. Those were exciting times to be a Twins fan. As we all know, the Twins had been to the World Series in 1965, where they lost to the Koufax/Drysdale led Dodgers. But 1966 was a pretty good year, too. The Twins finished runner-up to the Orioles for the American League pennant (yes, kids, there was a time when there were no divisions in Major League Baseball) and there was no reason for my fellow pre-teen friends and I to think the Twins wouldn’t be right in the thick of things in 1967, too. And they were. But nobody could have predicted just how “thick” that race would be. The Twins started out poorly and Griffith fired manager Sam Mele. That came as a shock to a kid like me. How could you fire a great manager like Mele? He took us to the World Series! But under Cal Ermer, the Twins woke up a bit and by the All-Star break were right back in the race. The White Sox held the lead, but the Tigers and Twins were right up there, too. The Angels and Red Sox were further back, but both were above .500. About a month later, the Twins swept a home series against the White Sox and moved in to first place. To give you an idea how tight the race had become, Boston sat in 5th place, just 2.5 games behind the Twins, with the White Sox, Tigers and Angels sandwiched between them. The Angels soon slumped badly and were out of the race by the end of August, but through the rest of the season, the Twins were never more than two games out of first place. Then again, the Tigers and both Red & White Sox, weren’t falling any further behind, either. In fact, on the morning of September 7, all four teams were in a virtual tie for first place. On September 15, the Twins, Tigers and Red Sox were tied, with Chicago just 1.5 games back. The White Sox returned the home sweep favor on the Twins September 15-17 and suddenly the Twins were dropped in to a tie with Chicago for 3rd place… one game behind the Tigers. One win over the A’s (that would be the Kansas City A’s, of course) later and the Twins were back in to a 3-way tie for the lead on September 18. I wish I could find a way to express just how crazy and exciting this was to an 11 year-old Twins fan. It was stuff like this that I believe made that kid a life-long Twins fan. From that point, September 18, through the rest of the month of September, the Twins were never out of first place. It seemed like they were almost always tied with someone, but every morning when we looked at the standings, the Twins had that little “-” next to them indicating they were no “games behind” anyone in the American League. The White Sox found themselves in 4th place, two games behind the Twins with two games left, but effectively eliminated from the race because the Twins and Red Sox would finish the season with a two-game series and both teams were ahead of Chicago. Boston and Detrot each were one game behind the Twins with two games to play, but due to some earlier rainouts, the Tigers had played two games fewer than the Twins and Red Sox, so they were staring at Saturday and Sunday home doubleheaders against what was still a pretty decent Angels team. All the Twins needed was a split of those final two games in Boston, along with one Angels win out of their four games with Detroit, and my Twins were headed to the World Series against Bob Gibson and the Cardinals! http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Kaat_Yaz_1967.jpg Twins pitcher Jim Kaat faces Carl Yastrzemski on September 30, 1967 But the Twins lost on Saturday 6-4, while the Tigers swept their twinbill with the Angels and that sent the Red Sox and Twins in to the final day of the season tied for first place, a half-game ahead of Detroit. The Angels helped out the Twins by gaining a split of their Sunday doubleheader with the Tigers, so all the Twins had to do was beat Boston. Of course, they didn’t… they lost 5-3… and the Red Sox went on to lose a seven-game World Series to the Cardinals, which I could barely watch. I was heartbroken. But it was still the most exciting Twins SEASON of my life and I had every reason then to expect my Twins to be just as good and just as exciting to watch the next year… and for the rest of my life, for that matter. In 1968, Griffith probably wished he had Mele back, as Ermer led the Twins to a 7th place finish (though their 79-83 record would look pretty good a couple of decades later) in the last season before expansion and the establishment of divisional play. A year later, new manager Billy Martin led the Twins to a 97-win season and the first ever AL West Division title. One year was all Griffith could tolerate of Martin and Bill Rigney was brought in to replace him for 1970. Rigney one-upped Martin by winning 98 games. But Martin and Rigney combined to go 0-6 in the postseason, both managers seeing their Twins team get swept by the Orioles three games to none in the best-of-five Division Series. In his first four seasons of Big League ball, Rod Carew had participated in perhaps the most exciting pennant race ever in 1967 and played for two Division champions in 1969 and 1970. He was playing alongside Harmon Killebrew, Tony Oliva and Jim Kaat. Carew must have felt like he would be playing for championship contenders forever. But he never played in the postseason again with the Twins and would do so only twice more in his career (in unsuccessful Division series with the Angels in 1979 and 1982). Carew, in effect, lost his shot at appearing in a World Series with the Twins’ loss to Boston on October 1, 1967, in his rookie year. But as disheartening as that must have been for Carew, things would be even worse for Twins fans. It would be 14 years after Rigney’s club bowed to the Orioles in 1970 before the Twins would finish even as high as second place in their division and, as we now know, it would be 1987 before Twins fans could cheer on another team that would win any kind of title at all. It was a long wait for fans like me and the Twins would lose a significant chunk of their fan base along the way. Tomorrow: Part 2 -Lessons to be Learned. - JC

Rod Carew spent 12 seasons in a Minnesota Twins uniform. He was the American League Rookie of the Year in 1967 and was lured away by the sunshine to southern California to play for the Angels following the 1978 season. At least the Twins managed to get some talent in return for Carew (Ken Landreaux, Dave Engle, Paul Hartzell, Brad Havens), rather than lose him to free agency when Carew essentially forced Twins owner Calvin Griffith in to a trade. (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com) http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/CarewStatue.jpg The Rod Carew bronze statue outside Target Field The 12 seasons Carew spent in Minnesota were some of the best… and worst… years I’ve gone through as a Twins fan. I believe that there are lessons to be learned from Carew’s era, for the Twins ownership and its fans, though I suspect neither group is inclined to heed them… at least not consciously. I turned five years old near the middle of the Twins’ first season in Minnesota. We made one or two annual trips up to see the Twins play in those days (usually just one… the trip up from Albert Lea was not as quick and easy before I-35), but we watched games on TV all summer long. They were road games, mostly. Home games were seldom televised, so as not to inhibit fans from buying tickets, I suppose. But I had my transistor radio to take to bed with me to listen to the games I couldn’t watch. So yes, I’ve been a fan through three World Series and even more Division Series. But the most exciting SEASON of Twins baseball in my memory was a year the Twins didn’t even play postseason baseball. That was Rod Carew’s rookie year, 1967. Those were exciting times to be a Twins fan. As we all know, the Twins had been to the World Series in 1965, where they lost to the Koufax/Drysdale led Dodgers. But 1966 was a pretty good year, too. The Twins finished runner-up to the Orioles for the American League pennant (yes, kids, there was a time when there were no divisions in Major League Baseball) and there was no reason for my fellow pre-teen friends and I to think the Twins wouldn’t be right in the thick of things in 1967, too. And they were. But nobody could have predicted just how “thick” that race would be. The Twins started out poorly and Griffith fired manager Sam Mele. That came as a shock to a kid like me. How could you fire a great manager like Mele? He took us to the World Series! But under Cal Ermer, the Twins woke up a bit and by the All-Star break were right back in the race. The White Sox held the lead, but the Tigers and Twins were right up there, too. The Angels and Red Sox were further back, but both were above .500. About a month later, the Twins swept a home series against the White Sox and moved in to first place. To give you an idea how tight the race had become, Boston sat in 5th place, just 2.5 games behind the Twins, with the White Sox, Tigers and Angels sandwiched between them. The Angels soon slumped badly and were out of the race by the end of August, but through the rest of the season, the Twins were never more than two games out of first place. Then again, the Tigers and both Red & White Sox, weren’t falling any further behind, either. In fact, on the morning of September 7, all four teams were in a virtual tie for first place. On September 15, the Twins, Tigers and Red Sox were tied, with Chicago just 1.5 games back. The White Sox returned the home sweep favor on the Twins September 15-17 and suddenly the Twins were dropped in to a tie with Chicago for 3rd place… one game behind the Tigers. One win over the A’s (that would be the Kansas City A’s, of course) later and the Twins were back in to a 3-way tie for the lead on September 18. I wish I could find a way to express just how crazy and exciting this was to an 11 year-old Twins fan. It was stuff like this that I believe made that kid a life-long Twins fan. From that point, September 18, through the rest of the month of September, the Twins were never out of first place. It seemed like they were almost always tied with someone, but every morning when we looked at the standings, the Twins had that little “-” next to them indicating they were no “games behind” anyone in the American League. The White Sox found themselves in 4th place, two games behind the Twins with two games left, but effectively eliminated from the race because the Twins and Red Sox would finish the season with a two-game series and both teams were ahead of Chicago. Boston and Detrot each were one game behind the Twins with two games to play, but due to some earlier rainouts, the Tigers had played two games fewer than the Twins and Red Sox, so they were staring at Saturday and Sunday home doubleheaders against what was still a pretty decent Angels team. All the Twins needed was a split of those final two games in Boston, along with one Angels win out of their four games with Detroit, and my Twins were headed to the World Series against Bob Gibson and the Cardinals! http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Kaat_Yaz_1967.jpg Twins pitcher Jim Kaat faces Carl Yastrzemski on September 30, 1967 But the Twins lost on Saturday 6-4, while the Tigers swept their twinbill with the Angels and that sent the Red Sox and Twins in to the final day of the season tied for first place, a half-game ahead of Detroit. The Angels helped out the Twins by gaining a split of their Sunday doubleheader with the Tigers, so all the Twins had to do was beat Boston. Of course, they didn’t… they lost 5-3… and the Red Sox went on to lose a seven-game World Series to the Cardinals, which I could barely watch. I was heartbroken. But it was still the most exciting Twins SEASON of my life and I had every reason then to expect my Twins to be just as good and just as exciting to watch the next year… and for the rest of my life, for that matter. In 1968, Griffith probably wished he had Mele back, as Ermer led the Twins to a 7th place finish (though their 79-83 record would look pretty good a couple of decades later) in the last season before expansion and the establishment of divisional play. A year later, new manager Billy Martin led the Twins to a 97-win season and the first ever AL West Division title. One year was all Griffith could tolerate of Martin and Bill Rigney was brought in to replace him for 1970. Rigney one-upped Martin by winning 98 games. But Martin and Rigney combined to go 0-6 in the postseason, both managers seeing their Twins team get swept by the Orioles three games to none in the best-of-five Division Series. In his first four seasons of Big League ball, Rod Carew had participated in perhaps the most exciting pennant race ever in 1967 and played for two Division champions in 1969 and 1970. He was playing alongside Harmon Killebrew, Tony Oliva and Jim Kaat. Carew must have felt like he would be playing for championship contenders forever. But he never played in the postseason again with the Twins and would do so only twice more in his career (in unsuccessful Division series with the Angels in 1979 and 1982). Carew, in effect, lost his shot at appearing in a World Series with the Twins’ loss to Boston on October 1, 1967, in his rookie year. But as disheartening as that must have been for Carew, things would be even worse for Twins fans. It would be 14 years after Rigney’s club bowed to the Orioles in 1970 before the Twins would finish even as high as second place in their division and, as we now know, it would be 1987 before Twins fans could cheer on another team that would win any kind of title at all. It was a long wait for fans like me and the Twins would lose a significant chunk of their fan base along the way. Tomorrow: Part 2 -Lessons to be Learned. - JC

Over the past couple of months, a number of smart, informed people who spend a lot of time analyzing young baseball players have been publishing their lists of top Twins prospects. Since I’m not nearly as smart or informed about these players as others are, I’ve held off on publishing my own rankings. (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.) But I’m going to put my rankings out there today, for two reasons. First, I’ve now had time to read and consider the opinions of a lot of those smarter, more informed people and use the research and analysis they’ve done to help solidify my own opinions. Second, and perhaps more importantly, we’re still getting through a holiday season when many people are not bothering to go online and read blogs like ours, so if I write something really stupid, it’s less likely than usual to be noticed. So without further delay, here’s my list of top Twins prospects heading in to the new year: Byron Buxton (OF) – It’s risky to elevate a player this high when he has yet to complete his first year of “full season” professional baseball, but the Twins first round pick from 2012 (and 2nd overall pick) was named top prospect of both rookie leagues, Gulf Coast and Appy, last year by Baseball America and that’s pretty hard to ignore. He doesn’t have the power of Miguel Sano, the consensus top Twins prospect for the past couple of years, but his potential as a centerfielder gives him an edge over Sano, who’s still a work in progress defensively. While Buxton could stay behind for extended spring training, I’m not sure he really has anything left to prove in Rookie leagues. He should spend most of the year in Cedar Rapids (A). http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Sano2012h-225x300.jpgMiguel Sano Miguel Sano (3B) – Dropping Sano a spot from last year is simply a reflection of Buxton’s arrival rather than any red flags with regard to Sano. I saw Sano play several games in 2012 and saw nothing that would keep me from continuing to believe that he should someday claim a spot in the heart of the Twins batting order. We all know he can hit, but until I watched him several times, it didn’t really sink in to me just how well he runs the bases, as well. Midwest League pitchers seemed to pitch around him at times (for good reason), so it will be interesting to see how he fares against better pitching in Fort Myers (A+). Alex Meyer (P) – Acquired from the Nationals in return for Denard Span, Meyer immediately became the Twins’ best hope for a top of the rotation starting pitcher within the next couple of seasons. It has become evident that having a true ace… a pitcher who can miss bats consistently… gives a team a much better chance to compete for championships and Meyer has the potential to give the Twins such a weapon for the first time since Johan Santana was dealt to the Mets. It’s not going to happen right away, though, as Meyer didn’t exactly overwhelm hitters in the handful of starts he got at high-A last year. The Twins have invited him to open Spring Training in the Major League camp, but that almost certainly is simply to give the staff an initial look at the new guy. He may open the season at New Britain (AA), but I won’t be surprised if the Twins will keep him in Fort Myers (A+) to start the season with the hope that he’ll earn a quick promotion. Oswaldo Arcia (OF) – Arcia has been projected to be a future corner outfielder for the Twins, as he’s shown power and the ability to hit line drives in to the gaps, while demonstrating solid corner outfield skills with his legs, glove and arm. Arcia split time in 2012 between Fort Myers (high A) and New Britain (AA) and actually hit better at the higher level, where he put up a .328/.398/.557 split. Arcia really hadn’t been projected to arrive in Minnesota until at least 2014, but with the departures of Span and Ben Revere, the question now is whether Arcia’s path to The Show will be accelerated. I assume he’ll start the season in Rochester, but if he plays well there, look for him to be promoted to Minnesota if/when there are injuries or the Twins start trading away veterans like Justin Morneau or Ryan Doumit toward mid-season. To my mind, Arcia is the “position player” prospect most likely to make the earliest significant offensive impact on the Twins Major League roster. Aaron Hicks (OF) – Hicks was the Twins first round draft pick in 2008 as a high school player and his progression through the minor leagues has not been without some challenges. After a solid rookie league year after signing with the Twins, he spent the following two seasons at Class A Beloit, partially due to injury and partially due to unsatisfactory performance. In 2011, he had another lackluster season at Fort Myers (high A), leading his name to be dropped from many “top prospect” lists. In 2012, however, he put up a solid .286/.384/.460 split at AA New Britain and that was good enough, apparently, to restore the organization’s confidence in Hicks to the point where GM Terry Ryan felt comfortable trading away Span and Revere. I think it would be best for Hicks to spend some time at AAA this season, but it sounds like he’ll be given the opportunity to win the Twins CF job in Spring Training. Kyle Gibson (P) – Another first round (2009) pick of the Twins, Gibson’s career has been one full of promise… and injuries that seem intent on quashing that promise. A college injury resulted in his dropping to the Twins with the 22nd pick and after zipping through high-A, AA and AAA during the 2010 season, Gibson’s career was derailed by Tommy John surgery midway through his 2011 AAA season. He threw just over 28 innings across three minor league levels toward the end of 2012, with encouraging results and performed relatively well in the Arizona Fall League. There’s little doubt that he’ll get an opportunity to pitch for the Twins in 2013, but the Twins intend to limit his innings somewhat, so it may be 2014 before we see what Gibson can really do at the Major League level. It’s not unreasonable to expect him to be a mid-rotation starting pitcher for years to come. I’d like to see him open in Rochester (AAA), but won’t be surprised or disappointed to see him with the Twins to start the season. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Rosario2012d-300x224.jpgEddie Rosario Eddie Rosario (2B/OF) – Since being drafted in 2010 out of his Puerto Rican high school, Rosario has put together 2 and a half seasons of solid work, hitting about .300 and tallying an even .900 OPS. Those would be pretty encouraging numbers for a centerfielder, which is what Rosario was drafted to play. But in 2012, the Twins asked Rosario to learn to play 2B in Beloit (A) and while his defense in the infield is still a work in progress, if he can successfully develop Major League level skills at 2B, his abilities with the bat could mean the difference between a “solid” CF and an “All-Star” 2B. This makes Rosario one of the most interesting players to watch as he takes his talent to Fort Myers (A+) this season. Jose (J.O.) Berrios (P) – Until Alex Meyer was acquired from the Nationals, Berrios was arguably the Twins’ best hope for a future top of the rotation pitcher. That probably says as much about the overall dearth of top pitching in the Twins organization as it does about Berrios, but nonetheless Berrios made a very impressive debut after being a supplemental first round pick by the Twins this past June. Berrios threw only 30.2 innings for the Twins two rookie league teams, starting four of the 11 games in which he made appearances. He struck out 49 batters in those innings, however, while walking only four and pitching to a WHIP of only 0.620. It will be interesting to see how quickly the Twins push the 18-year-old Berrios through the system. We may get an indication of their intent by watching to see if they send Berrios to Cedar Rapids (A) in April or keep him in Florida for extended spring training. Max Kepler (OF) – Kepler was signed as a teenager out of Germany and given the highest signing bonus ever for a European ballplayer the same offseason the Twins signed Miguel Sano. Kepler was not as developed as a ballplayer as Sano, however, and as a result, Kepler was spending his second short season at Elizabethton (rookie) in 2012, while Sano was playing his first year of full season ball in Beloit (A). In 2012, Kepler finally showed some of the promise the Twins saw in him before signing him, hitting just a couple clicks below .300, putting up a .925 OPS and hitting 10 home runs in 59 games. He reportedly has the skills to play some CF, but with the other CF prospects the Twins have in the pipeline, he’s probably more likely to fill a corner OF spot. Kepler will turn 20 years old a few weeks before he likely opens 2013 in the Cedar Rapids (A) outfield. Trevor May (P) – The 10th spot is probably not the right ranking for May, who was part of the return the Twins got for sending Ben Revere to the Phillies. In all likelihood, May should be ranked a few spots higher or several spots lower, depending on which version of this 23 year old pitcher shows up. If he’s the fireballing hurler who struck out between 12 and 13 hitters per nine innings at some stops of his minor league career and caused him to be a consensus “Top 100 overall prospect” at one time, he would project to join Alex Meyer at the top of a future Twins rotation. But if he’s the pitcher who walked almost five hitters per nine innings and posted a 1.450 WHIP for Reading (AA) in 2012, he would join the ranks of several other arms in the Twins organization that project to potentially fill back of the rotation spots in Minnesota down the line some time. I would think he would open the season at Rochester (AAA), but wouldn’t be shocked or even disappointed if the Twins let him open in New Britain (AA). It’s a good sign for the Twins and the relative depth of their organization that a number of my picks for spots 11 through 15 this year have been ranked, by me and/or others, as top 10 Twins prospects previously. Each of these players have the potential to make significant contributions to the Twins sooner or later. Trying to distinguish these five guys from one another in a way to rank them 11-15, though, is just too much for my limited knowledge to do, so I’ll just list them alphabetically, along with where I would expect them to open the 2013 season. Joe Benson (OF) – Rochester (AAA) Travis Harrison (3B) – Cedar Rapids (A) B. J. Hermsen (P) Rochester (AAA) Chris Herrmann © – Rochester (AAA) Randy Rosario (P) – Elizabethton (Rookie) There’s a lot of baseball talent on this list and a number of other Twins prospects have a lot of potential, as well. It should be a fun year to follow all of the Twins’ minor league affiliates in 2013. - JC

Over the past couple of months, a number of smart, informed people who spend a lot of time analyzing young baseball players have been publishing their lists of top Twins prospects. Since I’m not nearly as smart or informed about these players as others are, I’ve held off on publishing my own rankings. (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.) But I’m going to put my rankings out there today, for two reasons. First, I’ve now had time to read and consider the opinions of a lot of those smarter, more informed people and use the research and analysis they’ve done to help solidify my own opinions. Second, and perhaps more importantly, we’re still getting through a holiday season when many people are not bothering to go online and read blogs like ours, so if I write something really stupid, it’s less likely than usual to be noticed. So without further delay, here’s my list of top Twins prospects heading in to the new year: Byron Buxton (OF) – It’s risky to elevate a player this high when he has yet to complete his first year of “full season” professional baseball, but the Twins first round pick from 2012 (and 2nd overall pick) was named top prospect of both rookie leagues, Gulf Coast and Appy, last year by Baseball America and that’s pretty hard to ignore. He doesn’t have the power of Miguel Sano, the consensus top Twins prospect for the past couple of years, but his potential as a centerfielder gives him an edge over Sano, who’s still a work in progress defensively. While Buxton could stay behind for extended spring training, I’m not sure he really has anything left to prove in Rookie leagues. He should spend most of the year in Cedar Rapids (A). http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Sano2012h-225x300.jpgMiguel Sano Miguel Sano (3B) – Dropping Sano a spot from last year is simply a reflection of Buxton’s arrival rather than any red flags with regard to Sano. I saw Sano play several games in 2012 and saw nothing that would keep me from continuing to believe that he should someday claim a spot in the heart of the Twins batting order. We all know he can hit, but until I watched him several times, it didn’t really sink in to me just how well he runs the bases, as well. Midwest League pitchers seemed to pitch around him at times (for good reason), so it will be interesting to see how he fares against better pitching in Fort Myers (A+). Alex Meyer (P) – Acquired from the Nationals in return for Denard Span, Meyer immediately became the Twins’ best hope for a top of the rotation starting pitcher within the next couple of seasons. It has become evident that having a true ace… a pitcher who can miss bats consistently… gives a team a much better chance to compete for championships and Meyer has the potential to give the Twins such a weapon for the first time since Johan Santana was dealt to the Mets. It’s not going to happen right away, though, as Meyer didn’t exactly overwhelm hitters in the handful of starts he got at high-A last year. The Twins have invited him to open Spring Training in the Major League camp, but that almost certainly is simply to give the staff an initial look at the new guy. He may open the season at New Britain (AA), but I won’t be surprised if the Twins will keep him in Fort Myers (A+) to start the season with the hope that he’ll earn a quick promotion. Oswaldo Arcia (OF) – Arcia has been projected to be a future corner outfielder for the Twins, as he’s shown power and the ability to hit line drives in to the gaps, while demonstrating solid corner outfield skills with his legs, glove and arm. Arcia split time in 2012 between Fort Myers (high A) and New Britain (AA) and actually hit better at the higher level, where he put up a .328/.398/.557 split. Arcia really hadn’t been projected to arrive in Minnesota until at least 2014, but with the departures of Span and Ben Revere, the question now is whether Arcia’s path to The Show will be accelerated. I assume he’ll start the season in Rochester, but if he plays well there, look for him to be promoted to Minnesota if/when there are injuries or the Twins start trading away veterans like Justin Morneau or Ryan Doumit toward mid-season. To my mind, Arcia is the “position player” prospect most likely to make the earliest significant offensive impact on the Twins Major League roster. Aaron Hicks (OF) – Hicks was the Twins first round draft pick in 2008 as a high school player and his progression through the minor leagues has not been without some challenges. After a solid rookie league year after signing with the Twins, he spent the following two seasons at Class A Beloit, partially due to injury and partially due to unsatisfactory performance. In 2011, he had another lackluster season at Fort Myers (high A), leading his name to be dropped from many “top prospect” lists. In 2012, however, he put up a solid .286/.384/.460 split at AA New Britain and that was good enough, apparently, to restore the organization’s confidence in Hicks to the point where GM Terry Ryan felt comfortable trading away Span and Revere. I think it would be best for Hicks to spend some time at AAA this season, but it sounds like he’ll be given the opportunity to win the Twins CF job in Spring Training. Kyle Gibson (P) – Another first round (2009) pick of the Twins, Gibson’s career has been one full of promise… and injuries that seem intent on quashing that promise. A college injury resulted in his dropping to the Twins with the 22nd pick and after zipping through high-A, AA and AAA during the 2010 season, Gibson’s career was derailed by Tommy John surgery midway through his 2011 AAA season. He threw just over 28 innings across three minor league levels toward the end of 2012, with encouraging results and performed relatively well in the Arizona Fall League. There’s little doubt that he’ll get an opportunity to pitch for the Twins in 2013, but the Twins intend to limit his innings somewhat, so it may be 2014 before we see what Gibson can really do at the Major League level. It’s not unreasonable to expect him to be a mid-rotation starting pitcher for years to come. I’d like to see him open in Rochester (AAA), but won’t be surprised or disappointed to see him with the Twins to start the season. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Rosario2012d-300x224.jpgEddie Rosario Eddie Rosario (2B/OF) – Since being drafted in 2010 out of his Puerto Rican high school, Rosario has put together 2 and a half seasons of solid work, hitting about .300 and tallying an even .900 OPS. Those would be pretty encouraging numbers for a centerfielder, which is what Rosario was drafted to play. But in 2012, the Twins asked Rosario to learn to play 2B in Beloit (A) and while his defense in the infield is still a work in progress, if he can successfully develop Major League level skills at 2B, his abilities with the bat could mean the difference between a “solid” CF and an “All-Star” 2B. This makes Rosario one of the most interesting players to watch as he takes his talent to Fort Myers (A+) this season. Jose (J.O.) Berrios (P) – Until Alex Meyer was acquired from the Nationals, Berrios was arguably the Twins’ best hope for a future top of the rotation pitcher. That probably says as much about the overall dearth of top pitching in the Twins organization as it does about Berrios, but nonetheless Berrios made a very impressive debut after being a supplemental first round pick by the Twins this past June. Berrios threw only 30.2 innings for the Twins two rookie league teams, starting four of the 11 games in which he made appearances. He struck out 49 batters in those innings, however, while walking only four and pitching to a WHIP of only 0.620. It will be interesting to see how quickly the Twins push the 18-year-old Berrios through the system. We may get an indication of their intent by watching to see if they send Berrios to Cedar Rapids (A) in April or keep him in Florida for extended spring training. Max Kepler (OF) – Kepler was signed as a teenager out of Germany and given the highest signing bonus ever for a European ballplayer the same offseason the Twins signed Miguel Sano. Kepler was not as developed as a ballplayer as Sano, however, and as a result, Kepler was spending his second short season at Elizabethton (rookie) in 2012, while Sano was playing his first year of full season ball in Beloit (A). In 2012, Kepler finally showed some of the promise the Twins saw in him before signing him, hitting just a couple clicks below .300, putting up a .925 OPS and hitting 10 home runs in 59 games. He reportedly has the skills to play some CF, but with the other CF prospects the Twins have in the pipeline, he’s probably more likely to fill a corner OF spot. Kepler will turn 20 years old a few weeks before he likely opens 2013 in the Cedar Rapids (A) outfield. Trevor May (P) – The 10th spot is probably not the right ranking for May, who was part of the return the Twins got for sending Ben Revere to the Phillies. In all likelihood, May should be ranked a few spots higher or several spots lower, depending on which version of this 23 year old pitcher shows up. If he’s the fireballing hurler who struck out between 12 and 13 hitters per nine innings at some stops of his minor league career and caused him to be a consensus “Top 100 overall prospect” at one time, he would project to join Alex Meyer at the top of a future Twins rotation. But if he’s the pitcher who walked almost five hitters per nine innings and posted a 1.450 WHIP for Reading (AA) in 2012, he would join the ranks of several other arms in the Twins organization that project to potentially fill back of the rotation spots in Minnesota down the line some time. I would think he would open the season at Rochester (AAA), but wouldn’t be shocked or even disappointed if the Twins let him open in New Britain (AA). It’s a good sign for the Twins and the relative depth of their organization that a number of my picks for spots 11 through 15 this year have been ranked, by me and/or others, as top 10 Twins prospects previously. Each of these players have the potential to make significant contributions to the Twins sooner or later. Trying to distinguish these five guys from one another in a way to rank them 11-15, though, is just too much for my limited knowledge to do, so I’ll just list them alphabetically, along with where I would expect them to open the 2013 season. Joe Benson (OF) – Rochester (AAA) Travis Harrison (3B) – Cedar Rapids (A) B. J. Hermsen (P) Rochester (AAA) Chris Herrmann © – Rochester (AAA) Randy Rosario (P) – Elizabethton (Rookie) There’s a lot of baseball talent on this list and a number of other Twins prospects have a lot of potential, as well. It should be a fun year to follow all of the Twins’ minor league affiliates in 2013. - JC

Fair question PFH. If I voted, I would not make the PED users wait a year before I give them my vote. That said, if a member of the BBWAA went public with an intended philosophy of consistently not voting for KNOWN users in their first year of eligibility and then, starting with their second year, would vote for them on the merits of their accomplishments, I could at least respect that.

OMW, you obviously are of the same mind as many (perhaps most) fans. But as AM notes, the HoF already has cheaters in it. Players throughout the second half of the 20th century widely used amphetamines. Was that not using illegal drugs to aid performance? Baseball didn't care, writers didn't care and fans didn't want to know about it, so it was common... but it was still cheating, wasn't it? Steroids, to me, were ignored by baseball, by writers and fans for a far less period of time, but just because there were never Congressional hearings that led to witch hunts over use of greenies doesn't mean the players who used them are any cleaner than those who used steroids, in my book. Players who used PEDs of any kind during eras when MLB made no effort whatsoever to discourage, much less outlaw, their use should not be kept out of the HoF by voters who, if they were honest, would admit they would have readily done the same thing if it would have meant being able to play Big League baseball. OMW, you ended your comment by asking, "where do you draw the line?" You seem to be drawing that line somewhere between amphetamines and steroids, with the former being OK and the latter not OK. I respectfully disagree.

It took me longer than usual to really study the BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame ballot this year. I don’t know why. However, there remains a pretty interesting storyline this year with so many of the most high-profile steroid era superstars in their first year on the ballot. It’s not like we’ve had no discussion of the HoF at all though, as the Pleiss boys covered the topic in one of their “Talk to Contact” podcasts earlier this month. (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com) Last year, I put up a poll at Knuckleballs and allowed our readers to cast votes. I’m not going to do that this year, but I will give you the benefit of my wisdom concerning who I would cast my vote for if the BBWAA had gone out of their frigging minds and sent me a ballot. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/Baseball-Hall-Of-Fame.jpg First of all, there are going to be some players I voted for last year that I won’t be voting for this year, simply because so many of the first-timers are clearly deserving. That makes things tough for me because I do believe that the players I voted for last year are still worthy. Two years ago, I shared my thoughts about the BBWAA having the honor of determining who “gets in,” and in particular about those who refuse to vote for PED users based on some sort of “morality” judgment. Here’s one paragraph from that post that summarizes my views: I’m sure that if you and I sat down and tried to come up with a group of people worthy of casting judgments about others’ “morals”, we could come up with an idea or two. But I’m also pretty sure “sports writers” wouldn’t be at the top of our list. Not that sports writers are, inherently, less moral than any of the rest of us, as a group. But I’ve known enough of them over the years to be damn sure they aren’t morally superior to most other groups, either… and that includes ballplayers. So, if BBWAA members were willing to just vote based on players’ performances, I would reluctantly agree to let them keep their position as HoF gatekeepers. But if they think it’s their responsibility to protect the HoF’s integrity, please… spare me. The percentage of BBWAA members who would have willingly “juiced” in order to be able to play Major League Baseball in the 1990s instead of writing about it would be roughly 100%. I detest the hypocrisy of some of these writers. Last year, my post was geared more toward what my own approach would be if I were among those honored with a ballot. Again, a snippet to give you a sense of what my approach would be: My criteria for judging whether a player should be in the HoF is as much art as science. It’s not just an “eyeball test”. It’s more of a memory test. Certainly, statistical excellence over a period of a player’s career should be a consideration, but not the sole consideration. It’s the Hall of FAME. So tell me what these players accomplished during their careers that stood out, that was remarkable, that made an impression on baseball in their era, that made memories, that fans of that era and beyond still talk about and recognize, that made the player famous or added to the general level of fame bestowed upon the game of baseball itself. Why shouldn’t players that found something in themselves that allowed them to rise above their otherwise good-but-not-excellent career performance levels to give the baseball world something remarkable to remember for a lifetime be recognized for their contributions to baseball’s fame? This year, the ballot seems longer than usual. I don’t know if it really is. There are 13 players that carried over from last year and 24 first-timers, for a total of 37 players on the ballot. Click here for the full list, complete with career stats from baseball-reference.com. Voting BBWAA members can vote for up to 10 players, so I’ll do that as well. Here are the 10 players I would cast my vote for this year: First, five players who deserve to be in anyone’s Baseball HoF or you really shouldn’t bother having one… I don’t care what you think of them personally (which is probably pretty close to what I think of them personally): Barry Bonds Roger Clemens Sammy Sosa Rafael Palmeiro Mark McGwire Add to those a name that, I believe, has been wrongfully kept out of the HoF simply due to “guilt by association and rumor” and another name that could be treated much the same way for the same reasons if the BBWAA voters were going to be consistent (which is certainly not a given): Jeff Bagwell Mike Piazza That leaves room for just three more players on my ballot. It’s tough, but here are my choices and all three are carry-overs from my ballot last year: Jack Morris Tim Raines Alan Trammell That means a couple of guys I voted for a year ago are not on my ballot this year. I do believe Edgar Martinez is HoF worthy (if you don’t think a DH is worthy of the HoF, then get rid of the DH) and hopefully he will get in eventually. I also believe Dale Murphy is overlooked and, unfortunately, this is his 15th and final year on the ballot, so I won’t be able to add him back to my ballot in the future. It also means there’s at least one first-timer that I believe is certainly worthy of HoF status who is not on my ballot in his first year of eligibility and that’s Craig Biggio. Curt Schilling is another that I certainly could see myself voting for eventually. I’m sure both Biggio and Schilling will get the requiste 5% that will keep them on the ballot next year, so I don’t feel too bad about leaving them off this year. I’m also open to reconsidering such players as Fred McGriff and Larry Walker down the road. I suppose Don Mattingly and Bernie Williams should fall in to that category, too, but as career Yankees, they have a steeper hill to climb to get my vote (I never claimed to be an unbiased voter!). Last year, I correctly predicted that Barry Larkin would be the only player to get the 75% of votes necessary to be enshrined (granted, it wasn’t a tough prediction to make). I’m not sure it’s quite so easy this year. In fact, I think the only thing harder than predicting who will get elected might be actually getting elected. I don’t think anyone will get the necessary votes. Jack Morris will come very close, but the deep field will keep him from making the progress he would otherwise make. I hope I’m wrong about Morris… it would be nice for Twins fans to have something to smile about for a few days, anyway. Mike Piazza is really the only other name I think could possibly approach the 75% bar, but I just don’t think he’ll get there either. I’ll be very interested to see how his vote total compares to Bagwell’s though. Feel free to share who you would vote for and your predictions for who actually will be elected in the comments section. - JC

It took me longer than usual to really study the BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame ballot this year. I don’t know why. However, there remains a pretty interesting storyline this year with so many of the most high-profile steroid era superstars in their first year on the ballot. It’s not like we’ve had no discussion of the HoF at all though, as the Pleiss boys covered the topic in one of their “Talk to Contact” podcasts earlier this month. (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com) Last year, I put up a poll at Knuckleballs and allowed our readers to cast votes. I’m not going to do that this year, but I will give you the benefit of my wisdom concerning who I would cast my vote for if the BBWAA had gone out of their frigging minds and sent me a ballot. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/Baseball-Hall-Of-Fame.jpg First of all, there are going to be some players I voted for last year that I won’t be voting for this year, simply because so many of the first-timers are clearly deserving. That makes things tough for me because I do believe that the players I voted for last year are still worthy. Two years ago, I shared my thoughts about the BBWAA having the honor of determining who “gets in,” and in particular about those who refuse to vote for PED users based on some sort of “morality” judgment. Here’s one paragraph from that post that summarizes my views: I’m sure that if you and I sat down and tried to come up with a group of people worthy of casting judgments about others’ “morals”, we could come up with an idea or two. But I’m also pretty sure “sports writers” wouldn’t be at the top of our list. Not that sports writers are, inherently, less moral than any of the rest of us, as a group. But I’ve known enough of them over the years to be damn sure they aren’t morally superior to most other groups, either… and that includes ballplayers. So, if BBWAA members were willing to just vote based on players’ performances, I would reluctantly agree to let them keep their position as HoF gatekeepers. But if they think it’s their responsibility to protect the HoF’s integrity, please… spare me. The percentage of BBWAA members who would have willingly “juiced” in order to be able to play Major League Baseball in the 1990s instead of writing about it would be roughly 100%. I detest the hypocrisy of some of these writers. Last year, my post was geared more toward what my own approach would be if I were among those honored with a ballot. Again, a snippet to give you a sense of what my approach would be: My criteria for judging whether a player should be in the HoF is as much art as science. It’s not just an “eyeball test”. It’s more of a memory test. Certainly, statistical excellence over a period of a player’s career should be a consideration, but not the sole consideration. It’s the Hall of FAME. So tell me what these players accomplished during their careers that stood out, that was remarkable, that made an impression on baseball in their era, that made memories, that fans of that era and beyond still talk about and recognize, that made the player famous or added to the general level of fame bestowed upon the game of baseball itself. Why shouldn’t players that found something in themselves that allowed them to rise above their otherwise good-but-not-excellent career performance levels to give the baseball world something remarkable to remember for a lifetime be recognized for their contributions to baseball’s fame? This year, the ballot seems longer than usual. I don’t know if it really is. There are 13 players that carried over from last year and 24 first-timers, for a total of 37 players on the ballot. Click here for the full list, complete with career stats from baseball-reference.com. Voting BBWAA members can vote for up to 10 players, so I’ll do that as well. Here are the 10 players I would cast my vote for this year: First, five players who deserve to be in anyone’s Baseball HoF or you really shouldn’t bother having one… I don’t care what you think of them personally (which is probably pretty close to what I think of them personally): Barry Bonds Roger Clemens Sammy Sosa Rafael Palmeiro Mark McGwire Add to those a name that, I believe, has been wrongfully kept out of the HoF simply due to “guilt by association and rumor” and another name that could be treated much the same way for the same reasons if the BBWAA voters were going to be consistent (which is certainly not a given): Jeff Bagwell Mike Piazza That leaves room for just three more players on my ballot. It’s tough, but here are my choices and all three are carry-overs from my ballot last year: Jack Morris Tim Raines Alan Trammell That means a couple of guys I voted for a year ago are not on my ballot this year. I do believe Edgar Martinez is HoF worthy (if you don’t think a DH is worthy of the HoF, then get rid of the DH) and hopefully he will get in eventually. I also believe Dale Murphy is overlooked and, unfortunately, this is his 15th and final year on the ballot, so I won’t be able to add him back to my ballot in the future. It also means there’s at least one first-timer that I believe is certainly worthy of HoF status who is not on my ballot in his first year of eligibility and that’s Craig Biggio. Curt Schilling is another that I certainly could see myself voting for eventually. I’m sure both Biggio and Schilling will get the requiste 5% that will keep them on the ballot next year, so I don’t feel too bad about leaving them off this year. I’m also open to reconsidering such players as Fred McGriff and Larry Walker down the road. I suppose Don Mattingly and Bernie Williams should fall in to that category, too, but as career Yankees, they have a steeper hill to climb to get my vote (I never claimed to be an unbiased voter!). Last year, I correctly predicted that Barry Larkin would be the only player to get the 75% of votes necessary to be enshrined (granted, it wasn’t a tough prediction to make). I’m not sure it’s quite so easy this year. In fact, I think the only thing harder than predicting who will get elected might be actually getting elected. I don’t think anyone will get the necessary votes. Jack Morris will come very close, but the deep field will keep him from making the progress he would otherwise make. I hope I’m wrong about Morris… it would be nice for Twins fans to have something to smile about for a few days, anyway. Mike Piazza is really the only other name I think could possibly approach the 75% bar, but I just don’t think he’ll get there either. I’ll be very interested to see how his vote total compares to Bagwell’s though. Feel free to share who you would vote for and your predictions for who actually will be elected in the comments section. - JC

I’ve been pretty critical of the Twins front office lately. I’m not alone in that, of course. Quite a number of fans, including many who are far more informed and better able to communicate than I, feel that the Twins have simply not done enough to improve the team this offseason. (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.) Over this Christmas holiday week, I couldn’t help but reflect on matters so much more important than baseball. Will the ideologues in Washington really lead our country in to a deeper recession simply to try to make those who disagree with them look bad? What can we do to help those whose lives have been devastated by terrible storms? How do we make sure our children and their teachers can go about the educational process without fear of seemingly random acts of unthinkable violence? Kind of makes the whole debate over whether Terry Ryan is doing enough to fix the Twins’ rotation seem hardly worth thinking about, much less arguing about over and over, doesn’t it? So why do it? If we’re going to feel so passionate about a problem that we’ll write 1,000 words about it… not once but several times a week… shouldn’t the topic be more substantial than baseball? Of course it should. But I can’t solve those important problems. Nothing I say or write will help. I’ve led a relatively active political life, yet I’ve never felt less able to influence my government. I give to charities, but it seems like a drop in the bucket of what’s needed for humanity. I pray, yet have never felt less aware of God’s presence in our world. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/frustration2.jpg So perhaps it’s simply that powerlessness that brings me back here. I can’t do anything about any of the important matters facing the world, so I focus attention… arguably too much attention, at times… on baseball. Granted, I have no more influence with Terry Ryan than I do Congress, but I enjoy writing about baseball more than about politics, so here I am and here I shall remain. The give and take with other baseball fans and writers… especially other Twins fans… is enjoyable. It would certainly be more enjoyable if the talent being assembled looked to be more competitive on the field come Opening Day, but we can’t really do any more about that, as fans, than discuss it. So that’s what we do. Is it really all that important whether the Twins are being built to win more games in 2013 or not? Does it matter if we have to wait until 2014… or even 2015 or 2016… for the Twins to be good again? Well, for those of us closer to the end of our projected mortality arc than the beginning of it, it may be more important, but no, it’s not all that critical in the grand scheme of things. But it is important. I don’t believe the Pohlads are evil people out to fleece Twins fans out of our money without any concern for the quality of the product on the field. I don’t believe Terry Ryan is stupid about baseball, nor is he so ego-driven that he is determined to prove he can assemble a winning roster without spending any money at all. I also don’t envision his staff of senior baseball people resembling the group of old-school scouts in the movie version of “Moneyball,” whose player evaluations seemed based solely on “gut feel”. Pohlad and Ryan want to win. I believe they want to win in 2013, while also preparing to contend in years beyond. The players Ryan obtained in return for Denard Span and Ben Revere make it clear that Ryan’s primary focus is at least two years in the future. He knows it would be a very good idea not to have the 2013 Twins lose 95+ games again and he’ll try to avoid that, but he’s clearly not going to waste a lot of energy… or the Pohlads’ money… on any attempt to fix the team’s immediate problems. I still think that’s bad business, but it’s not my business. The Pohlads have entrusted those decisions to Ryan and, presumably, team president Dave St. Peter, so in a few years we’ll see who was right. With the new year almost upon us, it’s probably time to move past the, “what should Terry Ryan do?” phase of the offseason discussion, anyway. Maybe there will be a late bargain available to Ryan over the next couple of months, but for the most part, the roster is set. It will be an $80 million payroll short on established Major League talent. It will be a team projected to finish at the bottom of the AL Central again. But that doesn’t mean it can’t be fun to watch… and to talk about. That’s one of the things that makes baseball the greatest game in the world, to me. When the players… whatever their respective talent levels… take the field, anything can happen. You never know when you might see something you’ve never seen before. I couldn’t begin to count the number of baseball teams I’ve been involved with over the years, from the time I started playing organized ball at the age of 5, through my years as a player, as a coach, and now as merely a fan who enjoys writing about the game and my chosen favorite teams. But I’ve enjoyed literally every summer of baseball for these past 50+ years and I’m sure I’ll enjoy 2013, as well. I will also get frustrated in 2013. I will rant here… and elsewhere… about that frustration. I will argue about it. I will cheer what successes may be found in 2013 and I will try to savor the experience of watching a potential Hall of Fame catcher do his thing for the Twins, just as I savored watching Rod Carew’s talent, even during some very difficult years for the Twins and their fans. I may not spend much of my money on Twins tickets in 2013 (I spent no money at all on them in 2012) because I do believe the only way any of us can genuinely influence Ryan and his bosses to change their business strategy is by speaking with our pocketbooks. I attended 12-15 games a year when I felt the organization was moving in the right direction. I won’t do so when I feel that’s no longer true. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/Hammond.jpg Hammond Stadium, Spring Training home of the Twins That doesn’t mean I won’t still be a fan. I’ve been a fan through far worse stretches over the past 50 years. For better or worse, being a Twins fan is an important aspect of who I am and I will continue to spend a considerable about of time following them, talking about them, writing about them and, yes, arguing about them. I’m not sure what that says about me, but it probably isn’t good… at least not entirely good. I don’t really care about that. I care about the Twins. And I care that Spring Training is less than two months away. - JC

I’ve been pretty critical of the Twins front office lately. I’m not alone in that, of course. Quite a number of fans, including many who are far more informed and better able to communicate than I, feel that the Twins have simply not done enough to improve the team this offseason. (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.) Over this Christmas holiday week, I couldn’t help but reflect on matters so much more important than baseball. Will the ideologues in Washington really lead our country in to a deeper recession simply to try to make those who disagree with them look bad? What can we do to help those whose lives have been devastated by terrible storms? How do we make sure our children and their teachers can go about the educational process without fear of seemingly random acts of unthinkable violence? Kind of makes the whole debate over whether Terry Ryan is doing enough to fix the Twins’ rotation seem hardly worth thinking about, much less arguing about over and over, doesn’t it? So why do it? If we’re going to feel so passionate about a problem that we’ll write 1,000 words about it… not once but several times a week… shouldn’t the topic be more substantial than baseball? Of course it should. But I can’t solve those important problems. Nothing I say or write will help. I’ve led a relatively active political life, yet I’ve never felt less able to influence my government. I give to charities, but it seems like a drop in the bucket of what’s needed for humanity. I pray, yet have never felt less aware of God’s presence in our world. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/frustration2.jpg So perhaps it’s simply that powerlessness that brings me back here. I can’t do anything about any of the important matters facing the world, so I focus attention… arguably too much attention, at times… on baseball. Granted, I have no more influence with Terry Ryan than I do Congress, but I enjoy writing about baseball more than about politics, so here I am and here I shall remain. The give and take with other baseball fans and writers… especially other Twins fans… is enjoyable. It would certainly be more enjoyable if the talent being assembled looked to be more competitive on the field come Opening Day, but we can’t really do any more about that, as fans, than discuss it. So that’s what we do. Is it really all that important whether the Twins are being built to win more games in 2013 or not? Does it matter if we have to wait until 2014… or even 2015 or 2016… for the Twins to be good again? Well, for those of us closer to the end of our projected mortality arc than the beginning of it, it may be more important, but no, it’s not all that critical in the grand scheme of things. But it is important. I don’t believe the Pohlads are evil people out to fleece Twins fans out of our money without any concern for the quality of the product on the field. I don’t believe Terry Ryan is stupid about baseball, nor is he so ego-driven that he is determined to prove he can assemble a winning roster without spending any money at all. I also don’t envision his staff of senior baseball people resembling the group of old-school scouts in the movie version of “Moneyball,” whose player evaluations seemed based solely on “gut feel”. Pohlad and Ryan want to win. I believe they want to win in 2013, while also preparing to contend in years beyond. The players Ryan obtained in return for Denard Span and Ben Revere make it clear that Ryan’s primary focus is at least two years in the future. He knows it would be a very good idea not to have the 2013 Twins lose 95+ games again and he’ll try to avoid that, but he’s clearly not going to waste a lot of energy… or the Pohlads’ money… on any attempt to fix the team’s immediate problems. I still think that’s bad business, but it’s not my business. The Pohlads have entrusted those decisions to Ryan and, presumably, team president Dave St. Peter, so in a few years we’ll see who was right. With the new year almost upon us, it’s probably time to move past the, “what should Terry Ryan do?” phase of the offseason discussion, anyway. Maybe there will be a late bargain available to Ryan over the next couple of months, but for the most part, the roster is set. It will be an $80 million payroll short on established Major League talent. It will be a team projected to finish at the bottom of the AL Central again. But that doesn’t mean it can’t be fun to watch… and to talk about. That’s one of the things that makes baseball the greatest game in the world, to me. When the players… whatever their respective talent levels… take the field, anything can happen. You never know when you might see something you’ve never seen before. I couldn’t begin to count the number of baseball teams I’ve been involved with over the years, from the time I started playing organized ball at the age of 5, through my years as a player, as a coach, and now as merely a fan who enjoys writing about the game and my chosen favorite teams. But I’ve enjoyed literally every summer of baseball for these past 50+ years and I’m sure I’ll enjoy 2013, as well. I will also get frustrated in 2013. I will rant here… and elsewhere… about that frustration. I will argue about it. I will cheer what successes may be found in 2013 and I will try to savor the experience of watching a potential Hall of Fame catcher do his thing for the Twins, just as I savored watching Rod Carew’s talent, even during some very difficult years for the Twins and their fans. I may not spend much of my money on Twins tickets in 2013 (I spent no money at all on them in 2012) because I do believe the only way any of us can genuinely influence Ryan and his bosses to change their business strategy is by speaking with our pocketbooks. I attended 12-15 games a year when I felt the organization was moving in the right direction. I won’t do so when I feel that’s no longer true. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/Hammond.jpg Hammond Stadium, Spring Training home of the Twins That doesn’t mean I won’t still be a fan. I’ve been a fan through far worse stretches over the past 50 years. For better or worse, being a Twins fan is an important aspect of who I am and I will continue to spend a considerable about of time following them, talking about them, writing about them and, yes, arguing about them. I’m not sure what that says about me, but it probably isn’t good… at least not entirely good. I don’t really care about that. I care about the Twins. And I care that Spring Training is less than two months away. - JC

Thanks for the comments. I don't expect Jim Pohlad to throw money around like Illitch does with the Tigers and I don't expect them to go out and sign the top "ace" on the free agent market. But this front office is responsible for the past two atrocious seasons and while the players and fans have suffered through this decline, the ownership has seen the value of their franchise rise (primarily because MLB has been so successful, not because the people running the Twins have done such a marvelous job). I really don't think it's too much to ask of the front office and ownership to demonstrate a greater sense of urgency about fixing the problem they've created. There were a lot of mid-rotation pitchers available this offseason. They weren't ALL "bottom of the order starters". They certainly were not bottom of the TWINS rotation starters! And I'm sorry, but I do not believe for one moment that guys will not sign with the Twins because they have lost a couple of years in a row. It may take a little more money than a contender would have to pay, but to suggest Terry Ryan get off the hook simply because the very best pitchers will want to play for contenders is just being an enabler. You're telling the team, "you failed to improve the team when they were contenders, which caused them to take, but it's ok if you don't improve them now because they aren't contenders." If you ever want this front office and ownership to change their ways, you have to call them out... keep them honest. To make up excuses for them just convinces them that there's no reason for them to ever make a serious attempt to win.

Terry Ryan has been a busy boy. We may or may not be impressed by what he's been doing, but nobody can say he took an early holiday break from the office. (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com) The Twins went in to the offseason needing starting pitching. Ryan told anyone who asked that he understood it was his job to improve the rotation. He also has, at various times, mentioned also wanting to add some bullpen pieces and someone to push Trevor Plouffe at third base. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/TwinsMoneyclip.jpg He also consistently claimed that payroll would not significantly inhibit him from turning one of the worst teams in Major League Baseball in to a group that could compete in the AL Central. Understanding that almost none of us actually believed that last part, I thought now might be a good time to tally up what the Twins' GM has accomplished so far and how much of the Pohlads' money he has spent. So, let's project what the 25-man roster might look like if there are no further additions to the roster. (For the sake of simplifying things, I'll assume all pre-arbitration eligible players will make $500,000... some will make a few bucks more, some a few less.) Starting position players: C Joe Mauer: $23,000,000 1B Justin Morneau: $15,000,000 (inlcudes prorated bonus) 2B Brian Dozier: $500,000 3B Trevor Plouffe: $500,000 SS Jamey Carroll: $3,750,000 LF Josh Willingham: $7,000,000 CF Aaron Hicks: $500,000 RF Chris Parmelee: $500,000 DH Ryan Doumit: $3,500,000 That's $54,250,000 for the projected starting batting order. Ryan may still try to find a third baseman, but chances are he'll go dumpster diving even if he does find one, so I think it's safe to project that whatever four players Manager Ron Gardenhire will have keeping him company on the bench will be making somewhere close to the league minimum, so that's another $2,000,000 for some combination of Darin Mastroianni, Pedro Florimon, Eduardo Escobar, Oswaldo Arcia, Drew Butera, Chris Herrmann and/or whoever else claims a bench spot in Spring Training. (Butera is arbitration eligible, but it's unlikely he'll be awarded much, if any, above $500,000,) That makes $56,250,000 for 13 non-pitchers. Let's take a peek in to the bullpen: Closer Glen Perkins: $2,500,000 Set Up Jared Burton: $2,050,000 LHRP Brian Duensing: $1,300,000 (est. arb award) RHRP Anthony Swarzak: $500,000 RHRP Alex Burnett: $500,000 RHRP Casey Fien: $500,000 RHRP Josh Roenicke: $500,000 Yes, pretty much everyone below Duensing on the above list is going to have to win a spot in Spring Training, but for financial purposes this projection works. It would seem unlikely that anyone currently with the organization who knocks one of the last four guys out of the bullpen would make much more money. That adds up to a $7,850,000 bullpen. OK, we've put off projecting the starting pitching as long as we can, but let's uncover our eyes and take a look at the current state of the rotation: Kevin Correia: $4,500,000 Mike Pelfrey: $4,000,000 Vance Worley: $500,000 Scott Diamond: $500,000 Liam Hendriks: $500,000 Once again, we could discuss the chances of Pelfrey being healthy enough to start the season in the rotation or whether Kyle Gibson will be there to open the season or whether someone like Pedro Hernandez might impress in Spring Training, but the net effect would just be swapping another "minimum wage" earner in to the fifth spot. So that's an even $10,000,000 for the rotation. Yes, in an era when mediocre starting pitchers are getting seven figure salaries, the Twins look to pay their entire rotation $10 million. And if that doesn't bother you enough, consider that Kevin Correia will make up 45% of that total. That all adds up to a current Major League payroll of $74,100,000. Even if we have to add the $5,500,000 the Twins owe Nick Blackburn (yes, the Twins look like they'll pay Blackburn more money NOT to pitch for them in 2013 than they'll pay anyone else TO pitch), the total amounts to only $79,600,000... for the entire roster. Rich Harden signed a minor league contract with the Twins this week and I haven't read yet whether his deal includes something more than minimum wage pay if he makes the Big League roster out of Spring Training, but it certainly wouldn't be surprising. That said, I think we will need to see Harden throw hard and stay healthy before we worry too much about what effect he'll have on the payroll. Maybe Terry Ryan isn't finished. One would certainly like to think he's spending some time with the agents of a couple of the remaining starting pitchers on the market who have demonstrated some level of proficiency of getting batters out over the last year or two, but would you be willing to bet on someone like Shawn Marcum still being added to the roster? Yeah... me either. The Twins' Opening Day payrolls during their three seasons at Target Field have been $97,659,167 (2010), $113,237,000 (2011) and $100,435,000 (2012)*, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. It's virtually assured, at this point, that the Opening Day payroll in 2013 will be the lowest since the final year the team spent at the Metrodome when they opened at $65,299,266. *Charley Waters of the Pioneer Press Tweeted over the weekend that it appeared the Twins Opening Day payroll would be about $83 million, $11 million fewer than in 2012. The only thing I can assume is that Charley is not counting the $3 million owed to Tsuyoshi Nishioka and the portion of Francisco Liriano's paycheck the team avoided paying by trading him. Perhaps the Twins had insurance that negated Scott Baker's salary? I don't know, but even his newspaper's published estimate of the Twins Opening Day payroll last year was about $100 million. Waters must also be assuming Terry Ryan is going to spend another $5 million somewhere because I can't come up with anything close to $83 million right now. What conclusions can we draw from this? Here's my big take-away: Terry Ryan could have slashed Opening Day payroll by 10% to $90 million and still had over $20 million to spend on starting pitching. Instead he has pried less than $10 million out of the Pohlads' wallets to fix arguably the most glaring problem of any team in Major League Baseball. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Empty-Target-Field.jpg Could this be a glimpse of what Target Field will look like during Twins games in 2013? Personally, I think cutting payroll even 10% from last season's level when you've got an entire community of frustrated and distrusting fans is just bad business. The Twins brass keep talking about planning to compete in 2013, but talking that way while simultaneously cutting payroll by more than 20% is insulting our intelligence. I think they're underestimating the baseball IQ of their fanbase and they will see far more empty seats at Target Field in 2013 than they are expecting. Of course, that's when we're likely to learn what "insulting" really is... because that's when someone in the organization is going to complain publicly about a lack of fan support. You get the level of fan support you earn. Right now, I don't think the Twins front office has earned the right to expect a single fan to show up for a game. Let's hope that changes over the next couple of months. - JC

Terry Ryan has been a busy boy. We may or may not be impressed by what he's been doing, but nobody can say he took an early holiday break from the office. (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com) The Twins went in to the offseason needing starting pitching. Ryan told anyone who asked that he understood it was his job to improve the rotation. He also has, at various times, mentioned also wanting to add some bullpen pieces and someone to push Trevor Plouffe at third base. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/TwinsMoneyclip.jpg He also consistently claimed that payroll would not significantly inhibit him from turning one of the worst teams in Major League Baseball in to a group that could compete in the AL Central. Understanding that almost none of us actually believed that last part, I thought now might be a good time to tally up what the Twins' GM has accomplished so far and how much of the Pohlads' money he has spent. So, let's project what the 25-man roster might look like if there are no further additions to the roster. (For the sake of simplifying things, I'll assume all pre-arbitration eligible players will make $500,000... some will make a few bucks more, some a few less.) Starting position players: C Joe Mauer: $23,000,000 1B Justin Morneau: $15,000,000 (inlcudes prorated bonus) 2B Brian Dozier: $500,000 3B Trevor Plouffe: $500,000 SS Jamey Carroll: $3,750,000 LF Josh Willingham: $7,000,000 CF Aaron Hicks: $500,000 RF Chris Parmelee: $500,000 DH Ryan Doumit: $3,500,000 That's $54,250,000 for the projected starting batting order. Ryan may still try to find a third baseman, but chances are he'll go dumpster diving even if he does find one, so I think it's safe to project that whatever four players Manager Ron Gardenhire will have keeping him company on the bench will be making somewhere close to the league minimum, so that's another $2,000,000 for some combination of Darin Mastroianni, Pedro Florimon, Eduardo Escobar, Oswaldo Arcia, Drew Butera, Chris Herrmann and/or whoever else claims a bench spot in Spring Training. (Butera is arbitration eligible, but it's unlikely he'll be awarded much, if any, above $500,000,) That makes $56,250,000 for 13 non-pitchers. Let's take a peek in to the bullpen: Closer Glen Perkins: $2,500,000 Set Up Jared Burton: $2,050,000 LHRP Brian Duensing: $1,300,000 (est. arb award) RHRP Anthony Swarzak: $500,000 RHRP Alex Burnett: $500,000 RHRP Casey Fien: $500,000 RHRP Josh Roenicke: $500,000 Yes, pretty much everyone below Duensing on the above list is going to have to win a spot in Spring Training, but for financial purposes this projection works. It would seem unlikely that anyone currently with the organization who knocks one of the last four guys out of the bullpen would make much more money. That adds up to a $7,850,000 bullpen. OK, we've put off projecting the starting pitching as long as we can, but let's uncover our eyes and take a look at the current state of the rotation: Kevin Correia: $4,500,000 Mike Pelfrey: $4,000,000 Vance Worley: $500,000 Scott Diamond: $500,000 Liam Hendriks: $500,000 Once again, we could discuss the chances of Pelfrey being healthy enough to start the season in the rotation or whether Kyle Gibson will be there to open the season or whether someone like Pedro Hernandez might impress in Spring Training, but the net effect would just be swapping another "minimum wage" earner in to the fifth spot. So that's an even $10,000,000 for the rotation. Yes, in an era when mediocre starting pitchers are getting seven figure salaries, the Twins look to pay their entire rotation $10 million. And if that doesn't bother you enough, consider that Kevin Correia will make up 45% of that total. That all adds up to a current Major League payroll of $74,100,000. Even if we have to add the $5,500,000 the Twins owe Nick Blackburn (yes, the Twins look like they'll pay Blackburn more money NOT to pitch for them in 2013 than they'll pay anyone else TO pitch), the total amounts to only $79,600,000... for the entire roster. Rich Harden signed a minor league contract with the Twins this week and I haven't read yet whether his deal includes something more than minimum wage pay if he makes the Big League roster out of Spring Training, but it certainly wouldn't be surprising. That said, I think we will need to see Harden throw hard and stay healthy before we worry too much about what effect he'll have on the payroll. Maybe Terry Ryan isn't finished. One would certainly like to think he's spending some time with the agents of a couple of the remaining starting pitchers on the market who have demonstrated some level of proficiency of getting batters out over the last year or two, but would you be willing to bet on someone like Shawn Marcum still being added to the roster? Yeah... me either. The Twins' Opening Day payrolls during their three seasons at Target Field have been $97,659,167 (2010), $113,237,000 (2011) and $100,435,000 (2012)*, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. It's virtually assured, at this point, that the Opening Day payroll in 2013 will be the lowest since the final year the team spent at the Metrodome when they opened at $65,299,266. *Charley Waters of the Pioneer Press Tweeted over the weekend that it appeared the Twins Opening Day payroll would be about $83 million, $11 million fewer than in 2012. The only thing I can assume is that Charley is not counting the $3 million owed to Tsuyoshi Nishioka and the portion of Francisco Liriano's paycheck the team avoided paying by trading him. Perhaps the Twins had insurance that negated Scott Baker's salary? I don't know, but even his newspaper's published estimate of the Twins Opening Day payroll last year was about $100 million. Waters must also be assuming Terry Ryan is going to spend another $5 million somewhere because I can't come up with anything close to $83 million right now. What conclusions can we draw from this? Here's my big take-away: Terry Ryan could have slashed Opening Day payroll by 10% to $90 million and still had over $20 million to spend on starting pitching. Instead he has pried less than $10 million out of the Pohlads' wallets to fix arguably the most glaring problem of any team in Major League Baseball. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Empty-Target-Field.jpg Could this be a glimpse of what Target Field will look like during Twins games in 2013? Personally, I think cutting payroll even 10% from last season's level when you've got an entire community of frustrated and distrusting fans is just bad business. The Twins brass keep talking about planning to compete in 2013, but talking that way while simultaneously cutting payroll by more than 20% is insulting our intelligence. I think they're underestimating the baseball IQ of their fanbase and they will see far more empty seats at Target Field in 2013 than they are expecting. Of course, that's when we're likely to learn what "insulting" really is... because that's when someone in the organization is going to complain publicly about a lack of fan support. You get the level of fan support you earn. Right now, I don't think the Twins front office has earned the right to expect a single fan to show up for a game. Let's hope that changes over the next couple of months. - JC