Oops I just posted a version of this in another thread a moment ago. Thanks for this thread @cHawk.
Anyway, here goes..
Kenta Maeda is probably not going to pitch to his 2020 numbers in 2023. He is going into his final season, has plenty of wear and tear, and is getting up there in age now. What Mike Sixel said: Maeda might be better off as that long man candidate we often talk about, though he won’t like it (starting pitchers still see themselves as starters going 7 innings). Expect little from Maeda, and be pleasantly surprised,
Tyler Mahle will also coming off injury and best to not expect too much, One more season of team control.
Sonny Gray, like Maeda and Mahle, is also going into his final season of control. Gray is unhappy because he is of the old school mindset that starting pitchers should pitch 6 or 7 innings. I expect he will ask for a trade and why wouldn’t the front office oblige? They traded Berrios and Rogers ahead of their final seasons. “Get something for him” is a popular refrain here among Twins Daily writers, though not necessarily as popular among the Twins Daily rank and file readership.
Of the group consisting of Maeda, Mahle, and Gray, I expect zero starting pitchers to materialize. If one does,,then that is good.
The younger guys are more exciting to think about. Between Ober, Winder, and Varland, I expect one maybe even two to be effective and healthy by the time the team breaks spring training. Counting on all three would be wishful thinking. Two of them is possible, but safer to assume one.
Then you have Joe Ryan.
So, before we see what happens in the offseason, I will generously expect something like this five man rotation going into 2023:
…
Mahle or Gray (maybe Maeda)
Ryan
…
Ober or Winder or Varland (or unexpected young guy)
Again, that is being optimistic about Gray or Mahle that they will 1) be healthy, and 2) actually perform at that level of a #2.
By the way, Yu Darvish is absolutely pitching his guts out right now. He would be going into his final season in 2023 if the Twins had offered that sixth season before 2018.
A couple of readers have suggested that the front office places value on pitchers with concerning injury histories, since they come with a cheaper price tag and can in theory be rehabilitated. Its a good observation; it sure looks like to me that’s what’s happening. So the front office will either need to abandon that approach or be better at identifying the right pitchers if this is going to turn into anything. Pitchers with medical concerns do not command the big contracts like Yu Darvish, Jose Berrios, or Zack Wheeler earned. That leaves us with another pairing of one year free agents in the mold of Bundy/Archer or Happ/Shoemaker or Pineda/whoever to fill out the last two spots in 2023.
So no, no ace, no top number one guy, to fill that top spot. But if everything regarding pitching breaks in the Twins favor in 2023, that top of the rotation pitcher won’t be necessary.
That’s the way I see it, anyway.