Cris E

I thought the New Look was replacing half our roster with Cincinnati Reds and buying up all the remaindered Miami Marlins "M" gear.

MN is building a team for baseball reasons, and not basing many decisions on cost. They went out and traded for pitching they liked that was still controllable. They picked up a couple free agents that filled their needs and fit their profile. They got some depth to put a floor under the roster to avoid ever having a 2022 season again. They signed a huge ticket free agent to go with Buxton, their other star. More importantly Joe Pohlad came out and separated himself from Jim by making longer term offers, by not flinching at the bigger salaries and by talking about raising the payroll when the time comes. I agree with whoever it was above who said that this is a fine November piece but feels kind of tone-deaf in the current moment after adding Correa, Lopez, Gallo and not trading away the expensive vets during last year's collapse. This is a good looking club and I'm excited about the winter's work. Regarding San Diego: They can spend like this for a number of reasons that extend beyond "crazy owner" tropes. The biggest reason is that the Padres are only pro sports team in town. They have colleges and pro volleyball, sure, but for corporate seats and stadium sponsorship they own the market. Further, the cost of living in San Diego is quite a bit higher than in the Twin Cities so people are inured to paying lots for parking, tshirts, etc. I think I saw a Cost of Attending an MLB Game piece from a couple years ago where San Diego was down near the Twins, but there's little reason for that. Payscale.com estimates SD is 46% more expensive to live in than here. I think there's very little difference in income for the middle third of teams and it's just owner's choice to pick a payroll size. Does St Louis really make that much more money than MIN or do they just reinvest more of it? The remarks when Jim passed the baton to Joe were telling, inasmuch as the words and deeds both indicated they can do more in this market. I just wonder how the new broadcasting model that's starting to emerge finally turns out. That's going to be important for everyone over the next 2-20 years.

"Home runs and walks are not taking what the game is giving. You need to see the new opportunities and hit through the infield, steal a base, score on a weak fly ball to right. Play smart, not analytical." - Rocco, maybe.

I'm a reader, not a watcher. If the info is important put it in the description of the vid, but sound is not compatible with work.

The Twins prefer hitters. They mostly figure they'll figure out the defense later, but if a guy can't hit he can't play. Also, if a bat-first guy like Jeter can win a shoebox full of rings as a SS then they can find a way to make their best prospects fit into a defense built around Correa and Buxton.

Larnach is more than just a fringe guy. He was a top 100 prospect for a couple years after being chosen #20 overall in the 2018 draft. His numbers might be fringe now but he's a young guy who lost a key year of development to covid and then had the last two torn up by injury. We can still expect him to develop more given his shortened seasons since 2019. Last spring he was hitting .299/.375/.515 at the end of May when he got hurt, which is a sign that he's probably going to hit better than a utility infielder.

Polanco has real MLB home run power, and precious few of the kids are expected to bring that any time soon. I expect him to be starting at 2b the rest of this season and next year when camp opens too. They can try to seize the job then, but this lineup isn't the 2019 squad and you do want a couple guys that can jog the bases 20-25 times a year. Right now Buxton will hit when he plays, Correa and Miranda are both in that 20 HR area, and then it gets dicey. Polanco has a huge role in this offense and won't be traded away lightly.

Belt and suspenders. This move means little in and of itself, just that the front office doesn't want its underwear hanging out in public like past year. When you have a bunch of AA guys that need to prove themselves you don't just hand them jobs. You block them with orange cones and make them take the jobs, and if they can't beat out Donovan Solano or Kyle Farmer then they belong in AA or AAA.

This team is all about health. Last season showed what the worst case scenario would look like, so in response they got a new trainer, shored up the depth, traded a hot piece of Batting Champ for a big improvement in the rotation, and let the bullpen ride. Odds are we can't have lightening strike that often in the same locker room two years in a row, so we should get some regression to norms for some of these guys. But I've read the Book of Job, so I'm only hoping for a division crown, nothing more.

The Twins knew exactly what they were getting from San Diego in early 2022. At that time the Padres 2021 Manager Jayce Tingler was Rocco's new bench coach and he was part of the whole transaction.

Has he always pulled this much, or was some of this related to his injuries, an attempt to drive the ball more and not have to run as much with the bum leg?

He's at a point where it's time to exhibit some changes so teams can see how he might improve. More Of The Same went away as a strategy when he couldn't stay healthy, couldn't make contact, and even injury-ravaged, power-starved MN 2022 wouldn't keep him around. He has to start working with Driveline or someone that shows he's thinking about new approaches and willing to listen, to change. 2019 was a long time ago when it comes to claiming a major league roster spot.

He totally got those runners at first. Both of 'em. (I love spring training optimism.)

The trouble with this opportunity is that it's not a clean sweep. There are still a bunch of teams with really good deals that don't go through Bally that don't need to be broken up. If you want to melt down the model and evenly distribute the money it somehow has to encompass those cases where the team owns the network or whatever. And current rosters and budgets are based on current revenue projections, so they'll only be changed over time. But then the real trouble starts. Once you start getting away from concrete contracts from the local markets and move towards hypothetical shares of a national pool you lose the basis for the economics that have underlain baseball for 150 years. Even without the contracts that big money teams have already signed you're not going to get a chance to level the field. The valuations for the Mets and Dodgers and Cubs and so forth are largely derived from revenues, and TV money is a huge part of that. You can't just put the Brewers and Yankees on the same budget without somehow compensating the Steinbrenners for a very material loss of value. It's a tough nut to crack, and one that I don't think enough large dollar teams have the motivation to solve. There are 14 MLB teams broadcast by Bally Sports: Angels, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Guardians, Marlins, Padres, Rangers, Rays, Reds, Royals, Tigers, and Twins. Eyeballing it they mostly seem to be from the bottom two thirds of team revenue, with maybe Angels, Braves and Rangers in the top third. Not sure you'll get big money buy-in without at least one member of the country club set feeling the heat.

Management will choose Option 1 every time. Remember Bill Veeck's wisdom: it's not the high cost of talent that gets you, it's the high cost of mediocrity. And since everyone needs scrubs at one time or another, they better be cheap since there are so many of them. No one hates paying for the superstars because they produce, but when you need a temporary #5 starter for a month or two you want to be paying garbage wages so you can cut him when the crisis passes. For example the Twins had 14 guys start games for them last year and they want the guys at the back of that line to be making the bus fare they're talent is worth, not $5m.

Larnach

Lewis is a very good ballplayer and I like his future better than most, including Julien who I expect to be another Arraez in 2025. I believe Lewis will be the fill-in 2B/SS for any longer Polanco/Correa outages we may suffer over the next few years, and his permanent position is probably as Polanco's heir at 2b. That means he has to fill a couple years with mixed duty around the field. I'm OK with that I guess, because if he's made of glass he'll break no matter where he plays. As an aside, I think Gordon's got some serious roster space problems as soon as Royce is ready to come across the river. He'll be the first one pushed out until some injury gives him a chance to get back in. And he'll be pushed from that spot if Lee is ready and there's a long-term injury hole to fill. Wallner's bat erupting in April and May could also make him uncomfortable. I bet he's traded before Kepler.

I've said it a hundred times: there is a lot of money flowing into league coffers from cable subscribers that are paying for baseball they don't want. It's a big reason non-sports fans are cutting the cord, it's a big reason teams want to stay on cable if at all possible, and it's something the cable companies know they need to reduce. I expect the teams like MN that are negotiating new deals to take less cable money in exchange for the rights to sell their games online. It might have to be a big haircut, which means the income from the internet (ie cost to viewers) will be higher than many would like.

Until they are free to put guys on the 60 Day, adding a new face will cost passing someone they have now through waivers. That's unlikely to work, so Hand or Moore or my glorious comeback can wait until rosters are mobile again.

Gallo and Gordon and Koskie and my mom are all very fleeting, short-term answers to filling in Miranda's position this year. It should go Miranda backed up by Farmer and then to AAA guys for anything longer than 2-3 days. Lee should spend the spring at SS and 3B to cover the only two cases that matter: Correa gets hurt or Correa stays healthy. If Correa goes down then Farmer gets the job short-term until Lee proves he can carry it long-term. If Correa stays healthy for the next three years then Lee moves to 3B. Lewis should spend the year at SS and 2B, and Martin should be at 2B and LF. Julien should be down at AA playing 1b, lf, dh and maybe some other infield spots. Discussing Gallo or Gordon at 3B is third catcher country.

If you're just talking about an occasional appearance then facing a right handed pitcher will not kill Farmer any more than it would Miranda. I mean giving away a game's worth of defense by putting Gordon out there isn't much different than giving away four ABs by going with Farmer. If someone gets hurt mid-game then you deal with that, but you don't pretend Gordon needs to learn 3B any more that you insists that Farmer catch some games. You have two good options and Lee is on their heels. Gordon is not a serious option for any infield play.

His numbers indicate he'll be what Pagan was last April: a gaudy ERA with terrible supporting numbers hidden behind it. At some point the runs will start coming and people will start complaining about him like they do about Pagan. Does no one remember Joe Smith? 0.00 April ERA, 3.24 in May, 5 GDP induced in only 16 innings. Fun! And then he was bad and then he was gone. You're staking a lot on Falvine signing a guy who gets results without supporting skills and then cutting bait when it fails. I don't see them signing him to a major league deal. Maybe a two-way if he makes the club in April, but they aren't cutting anyone they care about to make room for him. They've done it and it doesn't really work.

Maeda will probably start, but he should probably be on the Archer plan for the first month or so until he builds his arm back up. I'm not sure his contract factors in all that much since we didn't sign him to it, but as a reliever he might well become some combination of disappointed, cranky, mad at not being allowed to pursue his bonus metrics. No, I think he'll get a chance to recreate 2020 and Winder or Ober will end up in the pen to be his long man. (I'd prefer Ober get a full starting job in St Paul until needed.)

Many notes: - Chafin signed this week, so he won't come here. More broadly, Falvey has said we've not looking for more arms in the pen until we sort what we have. There are a lot of guys who are very close to blowing this league up. Duran was the real deal all year, but closer Lopez put up a great half year, the new Lopez held it together for a year, Mahle was ready to shake off his old home park, and there are a million young strong arms behind them. The pen should be good. - Our 40 man is very full and we're not going to do anything until we get some guys moved to the 60 day DL. But even then I'm not sure we'll do much until we see how all the injured come back from their winter work. - And speaking of the returning injured: Mahle, Maeda, Lopez, Kirilloff, Larnach, Buxton, Correa, Polanco are all out to prove their health after last year. And they have to be followed by Lewis and Paddack when they are ready. - As if that isn't enough uncertainty we have to sort the kids and see who is ready and where they can play. There's an army coming and spring training may just be about measuring what to expect by June 15. The only position battles are 1b, lf and dh and the same guys are jostling for the spots. We might not see a set lineup just to fit most of them in on a semi-regular basis.

Mahle is better than his raw career numbers because his home park was CIN, a complete launching pad. He was a different guy there versus the road: "In the past three seasons, when Mahle started entering his peak at age-25, he’s pitched 156.2 innings on the road. He owns a 2.93 ERA over that time, 12th among 84 qualifying pitchers." https://zonecoverage.com/2022/mn-twins-news/twins-are-betting-on-a-literal-change-of-scenery-to-unlock-mahle/ There's more in that article, especially digging into his HR rate dropping by half when not pitching at Great America. Former Red Sonny Grey makes an appearance too. I am optimistic about Mahle in 2023.