wagwan

Last night Fernando Tatis Jr. got a grooved fastball in a 3-0 count and sent it into orbit. The San Diego Padres were already up seven late in the game, and with the bases loaded, his grand slam put it way out of reach. Texas Rangers manager Chris Woodward, he of the crotchety old age of 44, took exception to it.
 
Woodward told reporters after the game, "I didn't like it personally. You're up by 7 in the 8th inning, it's typically not a good time 3-0. It's kind of the way we were all raised in the game. But ... the norms are being challenged." He literally was asking for his opponent to quit playing. After Major League Baseball marketed their young talent wonderfully during the 2019 season with the slogan “Let the kids play” this is where we’re at.
 
I have no problem with baseball having unwritten rules. I think there’s a certain level of affection I have reserved specifically for the nuances in the sport. By and large though, the vast majority of said unwritten rules are dated and should be re-evaluated. Retaliation in the form of beanballs has long been silly. Bunting late in a game solely to break up a no-hit bid is one I think should draw some ire. If a pitcher wants to get on you for walking unnecessarily over his mound, so be it. Suggesting there’s counts in which the pitcher should know what the batter is doing though, and even further, completely expecting them to give up, is not a good look.
 
More often than not a 3-0 count results in a take due to the game scenario. Unless the pitch is absolutely grooved, that’s not a situation in which you want to miss and make an out. If a pitcher is going to throw a get-me-over fastball though, by all means the batter should be locked in and ready to ride it into orbit.
 
When Fernando Tatis Jr. did just that, his own manager Jayce Tingler missed the mark in defending him. Instead of noting that there was a sign missed, he simply could’ve said that he put a great swing on the pitch. Sure, missing signs is suboptimal, but that’s not the talking point in that specific spot. It’s like the basketball coach wanting the guard to work the offense, but he steps back and drains a three, which then causes exhale anyways.
 

 
There were takes all over the place in the wake of Tatis’ performance. Many of them correctly called out Woodward as off base and old school. Former Twins pitcher Phil Hughes chimed in comparing the situation to that of a football team taking a knee. The difference between all of those types of comparisons however is that baseball is the lone sport not dictated by time. When you’re up against a clock, strategy involved suggests killing the seconds and minutes in order to get you closer to victory. Baseball has outs, 27 of them, all finite. The only strategy when it comes to results in baseball is scoring more than the opposition before your self-inflicted missed opportunities run out.
 

 
If you want to be mad at a guy for swinging 3-0 at a bad pitch and giving up an opportunity to get on base, so be it. If you want to get mad at a guy for putting the ball in the seats, under any circumstances, by all means hop aboard the leather and ride it right on outta here.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

I don't typically find myself sitting down to write on a Sunday evening, but with my foot in a cast, and a level of frustration in tow, here we are. The first part of that formula is thanks to my achilles deciding to part ways with my foot, the second half is the fault of none other than the Star Tribune's Jim Souhan. On Sunday night, the Tribune Twitter account sent out Souhan's latest with this attached to the piece, "Affordable contract would keep Mauer in good standing with #MNTwins."
 
Prior to getting full blown defensive, I needed to dive in further. So, I hopped into an incognito window and got to reading.
 
There were some quotes from Twins President Dave St. Peter defending the $184 million deal that any team would've jumped at the opportunity to ink. There was some talk with Molitor about wanting him back, and then there was what Souhan added on his own.
 
The journalist quipped "Mauer’s desire to play probably will be based on his health. He has recovered from concussion-like symptoms to return to the everyday lineup, but is batting just .222 with a .556 OPS since his return. Before his injury, his on-base percentage was .404, ranking among the league leaders. His on-base percentage since is an uncharacteristically low .300."
 
From Mauer, Souhan went on to talk about Dozier. A late-bloomer that has an impending pay day ahead. The Twins don't look like they'll pony up, and there's baseball reasons for that (even aside from his typical slow start). He could end the piece without returning to Mauer however, in which he offer "the best thing Mauer could do for his image is to sign an affordable contract, to give the hometown team a break, and finish his career as a bargain instead of a financial burden."
 
Now that you've read as much as you need to, I'm sorry.
 
Over recent seasons, Souhan has been raked himself by plenty a fan of his poorly written pieces. Whether suggesting Phil Hughes as soft for not pitching through injury requiring surgery, or calling Miguel Sano out prior to him having an All Star caliber season. In both of those occasions however, you could argue the pieces had a level of journalistic integrity. Here however, Souhan comes out looking like more of a clown than he ever has.
 
In noting Mauer's production, Jim points to Joe's return from the disabled list. While noting his numbers, he fails to mention that's literally an eight game sample size (including Sunday). The .759 OPS and .404 OBP come in a 38 G span to open up the year. Had he been leading off during that stretch, the Twins offense may have benefitted even more (but that's another story). In a game that decides realities over the course of 162 games, cherry picking eight of them (and failing to mention it), is poor at best.
 
Should the idea that noting statistical production in an lackluster manner not bother you, Souhan then doubled down with his final remarks. Noting that Mauer should give the Twins a break, and not be a financial burden. If the brigade wielding pitchforks at the notion of Mauer's previous contract didn't already have enough poorly derived information, they've just been handed a bit more fuel for the fire.
 
The horse is so far dead, there's not even reason to beat it at this point. That being said, Mauer's $184 million deal was already a hometown discount. There isn't an organization in baseball that wouldn't have signed on that dotted line in a heartbeat. He was the best catcher in the game, and on pace to be among the best to ever play the position. He took less to stay home, and has been unappreciated by a fanbase that saw a living legend because a brain injury drastically altered his career.
 
With baseball being an uncapped sport, and the Twins rarely being in a position to land big fish over the course of his deal, spending to supplement Mauer hardly seemed to be the right move. In 2018, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine executed a near flawless offseason to bring in talent while pushing the payroll to an organizational record. The reality is that even the most sensible dollars don't always come together at the right time in terms of the on field product.
 
Given the current climate of free agents, and the new front office, I'd guess that Falvey and Levine would chuckle at the notion of giving Torii Hunter $10 million for a 2015 season at 39 years old. Veteran leadership is a great thing, but I'll be damned if suggesting it trumps performance on a good team makes any semblance of sense. Hunter was a defensive liability and on his last legs at the plate. It was a fine last hurrah, but the dollars didn't make sense. The beautiful part of it however, was that it didn't make a difference on the bottom line either.
 
A season ago, Joe Mauer was robbed of a Gold Glove that would've made him the third player to ever win one at multiple positions (and first catcher). At the present time, he's the best defensive first basemen in baseball, and it doesn't really matter if opposing managers are blind to that because of his lack of power numbers. Should Mauer want to return next year, Minnesota should jump at the opportunity. He can help Miguel Sano make that defensive transition, and earning something like $10 million is peanuts for the benefit he'd bring on the diamond.
 
When the dust settles on his career, Joe Mauer will go down as the best player to ever play in the Minnesota Twins organization not named Harmon Killebrew. Whether you can't come to grips with his contract, or the fact that a season of inflated home runs in the Metrodome didn't transform who he was doesn't really matter. Tonight Jim Souhan tried to summarize what Mauer has been, and can be going forward, while failing to do even a shred of journalistic justice.
 
It's a sad look for the Star Tribune, it's an expected offering from Souhan, and it's a reminder that Mauer has deserved so much better than what Minnesota has given him for far too long.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

I have been thoroughly following the Twins minor league farm system for about 2 years now. However, this is the first year that I am analyzing the players and writing blog entries about them. To me, this seemed like a fun and interesting way to view the best players in the Twins farm system and assemble the 2018 Twins MiLB Dream Team!
 
25 Man Roster
Pitchers-
SP Stephen Gonsalves
SP Lewis Thorpe
SP Zack Littell
SP Blayne Enlow
SP Landon Leach
SP/RE Fernando Romero
RE Tyler Jay
RE Brustar Graterol
RE John Curtiss
Catchers-
Ben Rortvedt
Brian Navarreto
David Banuelos
Infield-
1B Brent Rooker
1B Lewin Diaz
MIF Wander Javier
MIF Royce Lewis
MIF Jose Miranda
MIF Nick Gordon
3B Andrew Bechtold
3B Travis Blankenhorn
Outfield-
OF Alex Kirilloff
OF Akil Baddoo
OF Jacob Pearson
OF Max Murphy
OF LeMonte Wade
 
The Lineup
Gordon 2B
Lewis SS
Kirilloff RF
Rooker 1B
Wade LF
Blankenhorn 3B
Rorverdt C
Baddoo CF
Gonsalves P
 
The way I put the pitching staff together is by comparing the pitchers W-L ratio, ERA, SO, and how consistent they have been in past seasons. I put the position players together by comparing the AVG, OBP, SLG and SO to other players from their positions. I did take into consideration how many years the player has been playing in the MiLB. I am very convinced that this lineup will be the most effective because this teams .270/.356/.428 slash line is very impressive for the average age of the players in the lineup being only 22. The pitching staff has a total of 1,971 SO in there MiLB career, with a .280 ERA and this staff limits opposing hitters to a .217 AVG. If there is any players I forgot or any questions that you would like to ask me, then comment down below or email me at tjmac242004@gmail.com.

In 1961 Minnesota joined the ranks of Major League Baseball and the National Football League. It might be hard to believe today, but before that there were no Twins and Vikings in the state history, unless you buy the story of the Rune Stone in Alexandria and those Vikings might have tossed rocks, but not footballs. There has never been another year like this in Minnesota sports history and happily I can say I was there – both as a high school sophomore at Central High School in Minneapolis and as an usher in Met Stadium!
 
I loved the Met, the big erector set in the distant community of Bloomington. This was the big leagues for both football and baseball (shortly after we added the Soccer team – the Kicks) and it was in this rural suburb that we planted the seeds for this part of our community lore. Of course, they were not called the Bloomington Twins or the Bloomington Vikings. It might have been appropriate, but then Wold Chamberlain – our massive international airport (just joking) was also located nearby and no one thought to call it the Bloomington airport.
 
 
Of course, we had a sports history before this. In 1960 the Minnesota Gophers were named the number one college football team in the country – yup, Alabama did not get that one. Playing under Murray Warmath with players like Sandy Stevens at QB (he then played in Canadian football league) we were at the top of big time college football and then we went to the big game – the Rose Bowl, where we set the precedence for the soon to arrive Minnesota Vikings - but lost the biggest game of the year to Washington 17 – 7. In the year of the Vikings and Twins the Gophers ranked 6th in the nation and corrected their previous loss by winning the Rose Bowl against UCLA 21 – 3.
 
 
There was no NHL team in the cities (that still amazes me), but that did not mean that there were no sports memories to be had. When I asked a friend, John Helland who retired from working at the state capitol about his impressions of that time he wrote, “Hey, Mike, here's what I remember: Gopher baseball was great, winning the NCAA championship in 1960 over So. Cal. Jim Rantz, longtimeTwin's farm club director, and Tom Moe, also a good football player and much later Athletic Director, were on that team. They also won four years later. Some Gopher hockey players, incl. Herb Brooks, almost made the U.S. hockey team (he was the last team cut). The Saints vs. Millers was a great hockey rivalry then, but don't remember names of good players. Jim Beattie was starting his pro boxing career as an up and coming heavyweight. This is going back almost 60 years now, so just a kid. The 1960 U.S. Olympic team featured Minnesotan’s John Mayasich, Jack McCarten, the goalie, and Warroad's Christian brothers who later developed iconic hockey sticks.”
 
 
We were excited about our sports legacy and we still had a professional team – The Minneapolis Lakers – in 1960. But Mikan retired – he was so good they changed the court – enlarging the lane so that he would not get every rebound. And we were champions – 5 times in 6 years with a roster of NBA Hall of Famers. In the 1958/59 season we drafted Elgin Baylor and the future looked bright. Sitting in the Minneapolis Armory where many games were played there were no bad seats. Unlike the Timberwolves stadium where you need binoculars in the upper deck to watch seven-foot players, at the Armory the players towered over us and it was almost like being on the court. It was great, but attendance was not – how many can you get in the Armory, so in 1960 just as we were getting excited about our new teams – the Lakers were moved – to the west coast, to Los Angeles, to a city that does not even know what a Lake is!
 
 
We would have been depressed, but the Twins were coming. There were minor league teams still playing – the Minneapolis Millers were in Nicollet Stadium, just six blocks from where I lived, until 1956 when they moved to Metropolitan Stadium (who came up with that name for a stadium in the middle of a field in Bloomington?) where they played until 1960. In St Paul, the Saints were the farm team of the Dodgers, who were about to move to the west coast. Who knew then that the Giants would be enticed to move with them. But 1960 would be the last year of this franchise until Mike Veeck and others created the new Saints in independent ball who would play at the same stadium – Midway – that the original Saints used in their final season.
 
 
In 1958, future Twins manager Gene Mauch was the skipper of the Millers – now a farm team for the Red Sox, having been associated with the Giants for years. Mauch led us to the championship and then we lost the Minor League World Series. We knew that major league baseball was coming, and Horace Stoneham of the Giants played us for country bumpkins, promising to move here and using the leverage to get to San Francisco. Our final year was pretty glorious – Carl Yastrzemski was here as was future Twin, Al Worthington.
 
 
This left an opening for a team which we had no association with – the Washington Senators, and their owner/GM – Calvin Griffith. But who cared – this team, so famous for the saying – Washington DC, first in war, last in the American League – was coming. Time to learn who they were. From Senators to Twins – what a transition. Some bonus player named Harmon Killebrew showed up and so did some Latin players like Camilo Pascual and Pedro Ramos. The Pirates were the reigning champions – they were FAMILY – we were in baseball heaven.
 
In the meantime, something else was brewing – the NFL was going to put a team in the state the same year and the same stadium. It was Viking time. And we would be playing outside like real Vikings. Norm Van Brocklin would be our coach and we would have a rookie QB named Frank Tarkington and no one expected him to do anything. As an expansion team, we were expected to be the tackling dummies for the rest of the league. The champions were from Philadelphia – a team called the Eagles, but we knew we would get even with them someday - we hope.
 
 
April 11, 1961 the Twins played the very first Major League Game in Minnesota. There were 39,615 fans – a sellout, and I was an usher. We were so new to this that we still did not know who those players were, but they were ours, so we cheered. Metropolitan stadium with its three decks had never felt the feet of so many people and when they got their coordination together, they would stomp their feet and rock, or should I say – sway, the stadium. Unaccustomed to the rules of the major leagues I remember being booed by thousands of people when I would go to make sure someone was not hurt by a foul ball. They were sure I was there to take the ball back!
 
 
We loved the fresh air, the breeze coming in from right field, the uniforms and excitement of the game, even if we had no idea who manager Cookie Lavagetto was. We had Billy Martin, a future manager at 2B, Harmon Killebrew a future HOF player at 1B, Zoilo Versalles at SS, and Bob Allison in the OF. With Pascual and Ramos was Jack Kralick and Jim Kaat in the rotation. This was so heady we hardly noticed that one of our own – Roger Maris – was hitting the baseball out of the park more than anyone in history. Actually, we knew but it was not as important as the fact that we won 70 games! Of course we also lost 90, but who cared, this was the majors and our guy – Harmon had hit 46 home runs. When the season was over the Twins had drawn 1,256,723 fans, the third highest total in MLB and we were in 7th place, not last (10).
 
Now it was Viking time! The Senators were an established team that moved, but the Vikings were an expansion team and they were not supposed to win. After opening with an exhibition in Sioux Falls, SD the team came home to a rousing welcome. Like good Minnesotans, the fans were all on time, the parking lot was full, and the ushers helped people find their seats quickly. It was an excited crowd, but everyone knew we would lose, that is, everyone but Fran Tarkington who had not read that script and came off the bench to replace the wily old vet, George Shaw, and beat the mighty bears 37 – 13 on opening day!
 
 
For a week we had a perfect record in the NFL. True, we had the Minneapolis Marines and Duluth had the Eskimos, but that ancient history hardly makes a dent in our professional football story, even if the Eskimos had Ernie Nevers, the first Superstar.
 
We got a franchise in the American Football League, but never played a game. The fact that we got awarded this new team meant the NFL (which was not merged with the upstarts) decided to put a team in Minnesota if we gave up that first AFL franchise which subsequently became the Oakland Raiders. The new owners included Ole Haugsrud who had given up the original Duluth team to the league with a provision that he would be allowed ownership in any future NFL team. It took forty years.
 
Playing outside the Viking fans became the new version of the Packers – standing in the cold, breath frozen in the air, a unique sound of clapping gloves, and a rabid excitement that would continue right up today’s softer indoor fans. The opening win shocked everyone, and the roar was similar to the playoff games of the future, but the shock wore off with 7 straight losses and a final 3 – 11 record.
 
Being in the stadium at the end of the season no one minded that we were packed in tightly, it just made us warmer. Thermos’ went from coffee to slightly stronger beverages and the sounds of the stadium faithful echoed across the frozen prairies of Bloomington. An average of 34,586 people attended the games, many of them lopsided contests. Norm Van Brocklin, the ex-quarterback of the Philadelphia Eagles was the grumpy head coach because the quiet man of the north – Bud Grant – would not cancel his contract with the Blue Bombers in the Canadian Football League. Eventually we would get him.
 
I only ushered for one year, but that was enough to create a love for sports that continues today. Only baseball remains with as much passion, but that dates back to my childhood when the only vacation my parents would take was a trip to County Stadium in Milwaukee to watch the Milwaukee Braves in their championship seasons. My career would take me in many directions, including one-year writing for the short-lived Midwest Spectator, a Twin Cities sports publication, and finally into my career in the Outdoor/Environmental Education.
 
 
Like many people I was moved by the events that I witnessed when I was young and even though I attended all the 1991 world series games at home, nothing will be as lasting as that first night when the sun was setting, and the stadium lights came on, when the green of the stadium grass seemed to turn luminescent and the players uniforms sparkled in the light. There was the smell of the concessions, the sound of the bat, and the collective anticipation that something good was going to happen – something good that would continue for the next 57 years and who knows how long into the future.

The Minnesota Twins are nearly certain they'll start Jorge Polanco at shortstop to open the 2017 season. He played over 400 innings there in 2016, and with Brian Dozier remaining within the organization, there isn't realistic room to shift Polanco to the other side of second base. The question is, can his bat elevate him high enough to overcome his defensive inefficiency?
 
Under Paul Molitor last season, Polanco started 45 games at shortstop. Prior to that, the last time he played shortstop was for a 19 game stint at Triple-A Rochester in 2015. Recently, Molitor was asked why a guy they relied upon so heavily, wasn't given a better opportunity to succeed. On Polanco not playing shortstop in the minors last season, the Twins skipper told Phil Miller of the Star Tribune, "I wish I had a better explanation, we didn't handle it the right way."
 
That's an answer that could be used all too often for some of Molitor's roster and lineup decisions a season ago, but it's one that needs to be phased out in the coming season. For a Twins club that should be looking at defense as the linchpin to growth, making sure guys are well positioned and prepared is a must. For Polanco though, it's worth wondering just how much can be done.
 
Prior to the 2016 season, Polanco showed up on both Baseball American and MLB.com's Top 100 prospect lists. He was primarily a second basemen, and has been widely regarded as a bat first guy. Across seven minor league seasons, the young Dominican owns a .757 OPS backed by a strong .286 average and .346 OBP. He's never going to hit for much power, but as a gap guy with speed, he'll stretch extra bases plenty. It's always seemed that second would be his home however, and that coexisting with Brian Dozier was unlikely.
 
A year ago, Polanco turned in 406 innings at short. He racked up a -8 DRS and committed 11 errors. It wasn't quite a Danny Santana level of futility (-15 DRS 16 E in 578.1 innings during 2015), but it was well down that path. Polanco's range was a serious detriment for the Twins (-10.9 UZR) as well, and it's probably fair to wonder if taking poor routes to compensate for a noted lack of arm strength wasn't part of the issue.
 
All things considered, expecting Polanco to win a Gold Glove playing shortstop is not a likely proposition. For Minnesota though, that really shouldn't be the goal. What they need to see happen is Polanco land somewhere in the average territory, and we can find a relative group of what that may look like.
 
In 2016, only five players (with 400+ innings) had worse DRS numbers at short than Polanco. Alexei Ramirez (-20), Brad Miller (-14), and Jordy Mercer (-9) all played for losing clubs. Both Xander Bogaerts (-10) and Didi Gregorious (-9) played on teams with winning records, and their bats spoke loudly for them. At the top of the shortstop DRS list resides the likes of Addison Russell (19) and Brandon Crawford (19). The middle ground is something in the -3 to 0 range.
 
Seven shortstops fall within -3 to 0 DRS having played over 400 innings. They include Carlos Correa, Chris Owings, Aledmys Diaz, Elvis Andrus, Ketel Marte, Orlando Arcia, and Corey Seager. Of that group, only Owings' Diamondbacks and Arcia's Brewers had losing seasons. There's also a decent contingent of solid hitters in that bunch, allowing them to contribute to their club's offensive production as well.
 
For Jorge Polanco, finding a way to get to the middle ground is a must. He can't continue to post the 6th worst DRS numbers in the big leagues, and he has to put up a better UZR than the 5th worst mark in baseball. By now we know that the position puts a strain on him with a lack of arm strength, and honestly, being miscast as a fit. Although he's not going to hit like Bogaerts, a Gregorious-esque (.276/.304/.447) slash line seems more than doable. With a few minor tweaks, rounding himself into a more complete player would help the Twins out substantially.
 
In 2017, the Twins are going to win more games simply because of minor tweaks. Jason Castro elevates the pitching staff, and a consistent outfield of Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, and Max Kepler provide a massive defensive boost. Polanco needs to raise the water mark by elevating his play just a little, even if he's still somewhat of a liability. The bat has never been the concern, and it's time to make the glove less of one.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

The first action took place on Tom Kelly Field with TK working with Mauer, Park, and Vargas and Gene
Glynn working with the middle infielders on fielding grounders and looking toward base runners. Vargas
with his trimmed down look is much more agile around first base. My first prediction of the year;
Vargas with start the year at DH with Park being sent to AAA to learn the "Twins Way."
Things were like yesterday with pitchers warming up in the pen and then alternating between Hammond
and the main practice field to throw against live hitters. I watched these guys in the bull pen; Gibson,
Jepsen, Pressly, Pat Dean, Taylor Rogers, Logan Darnell, Brandon Kintzler, Milone and Mason Melotakis.
Melotakis is a lefty who throws in the mid nineties, but was out all of last year with injury. He threw
hard, but pretty wild.
Next, to the batting cages where Tom Brunansky was working a lot with Ryan Sweeney, a 31 year old
journeyman left handed outfielder with a 276 lifetime avg. Tony Oliva was working with the infielders;
Escobar, Dozier, Nunez, Polanco and D. Santana. When these guys left Joe Mauer (he wore sun
glasses while hitting on Hammond field) worked with Bruno and Park with Tony O.
When practice ended Mark Rosen was interviewing Neil Allen in the bullpen and Perk from Kare 11
was interviewing Byung Ho Park (#52) with his interpreter by the dugout at Hammond. I left the
park at 1:15; temperature was 81.
First game is tomorrow at Jet Blue Park and Thursday nights game with the Red Sox at Hammond
is on MLB network. Later

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
---
 
I am trying something new this year. Instead of summarizing the top 40 Twins' prospects list, I am doing some actual analysis as well, which I believe might be telling for the system.
 
This is the last segment in this series. You can find the introductory segment in this series, including my criteria for eligibility to be a prospect and the list of the 2015 top 40 players who graduated as prospects or are not in the system, here. Here is my 2015 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list (summary of 1-40) for reference.
You can find players 36-40 here, players 31-35 here, players 26-30 here, players 21-25 here, players 16-20 here, players 11-15 here, players 6-10 here, and players 1-5 here.
 
 
Here are the top 40 with position indicated and 2015 rank in parenthesis, along with Estimated Time of Arrival :
 
1. Jose Berrios RHSP (5), 2016
2. Tyler Jay (--) LHSP, 2017
3. Nick Burdi (6) RHRP, 2016
4. Stephen Gonsalves (13) LHSP, 2018
5. Lewin Diaz (9) 1B/DH, 2019
6. JT Chargois (--) RHRP, 2016
7. Wander Javier (--) SS, 2020+
8. Jermaine Palacios (36) SS/3B, 2020
9. Nick Gordon (12) SS, 2019
10. Mitch Garver (17) C, 2017
11. Levi Michael (22), 2B, 2016
12. Mason Melotakis (--), LHRP, 2016
13. Kohl Stewart RHSP (7), 2017
14. Travis Harrison (14), OF/1B, 2017
15. Amaurys Minier (6) OF/1B, 2019
16. Jake Reed (16) RHRP, 2017
17. Lewis Thorpe (11) LHSP, 2019
18. Daniel Palka (--) OF, 2017
19. Adam Walker (21), OF, 2016
20. Felix Jorge (29), RHSP, 2018
21. Rainis Silva (24), C, 2018
22. Jean Carlos Arias (--), CF, 2020
23. Engelb Vielma SS (20), 2017
24. Luis Arraez IF (40), 2019
25. Ryan Eades RHSP (30), 2017
26. Lachlan Wells (--), LHSP, 2020
27. Huascar Ynoa (--), RHSP, 2020
28. Brusdar Graterol (--), RHSP, 2020+
29. Brandon Peterson (27), RHRP, 2017
30. Taylor Rogers (--), LHR/SP, 2016
31. LaMonte Wade (--), CF, 2018
32. Kolton Kendrick (--), 1B/DH, 2020+
33. Chris Paul (--) IF/OF, 2018
34. Fernardo Romero (37), RHSP, 2019
35. Yorman Landa (--), RHRP, 2018
36. Kuo Hua Lo (--), RHRP, 2018
37. Niko Goodrum (--), CF/IF, 2017
38. Travis Blankenhorn (--), 3B/1B, 2020
39. Trey Cabbage (--), IF/OF, 2020+
40. Emmanuel Morel (--) IF, 2020+
 
 
Here is a full list of subtractions from the 2014 off-season list (that ranking in parenthesis) :
 
Graduated: Miguel Sano 3B (1), Jorge Polanco SS (2), Byron Buxton OF (3), Alex Meyer RHP (4), Eddie Rosario OF (8), Max Kepler OF/1B (12)
 
Traded: Chih-Wei Hu RHP (18), Alexis Tapia RHP (25)
 
Released: Tyler Kuresa 1B (38)
 
Retired: Mat Batts LHP (35)
 
Dropped: Jorge Fernandez C (19), Mike Cederoth RHP (23), Max Murphy OF (26), Stuart Turner C (28) , Aaron Slegers RHP (31), Randy Rosario RHP (32), Zach Larson OF (33),Todd Van Steensen RHP (34), Moises Gomez RHP (39)
 
For a total of 19 players, so a good 47.5% turnover from last season
 
 
Here is the list by position:
 
1. Jose Berrios RHSP (5), 2016
13. Kohl Stewart RHSP (7), 2017
20. Felix Jorge (29), RHSP, 2018
25. Ryan Eades RHSP (30), 2017
27. Huascar Ynoa (--), RHSP, 2020
28. Brusdar Graterol (--), RHSP, 2020+
29. Brandon Peterson (27), RHRP, 2017
34. Fernardo Romero (37), RHSP, 2019
 
2. Tyler Jay (--) LHSP, 2017
4. Stephen Gonsalves (13) LHSP, 2018
17. Lewis Thorpe (11) LHSP, 2019
26. Lachlan Wells (--), LHSP, 2020
30. Taylor Rogers (--), LHR/SP, 2016
 
3. Nick Burdi (6) RHRP, 2016
6. JT Chargois (--) RHRP, 2016
16. Jake Reed (16) RHRP, 2017
35. Yorman Landa (--), RHRP, 2018
36. Kuo Hua Lo (--), RHRP, 2018
 
12. Mason Melotakis (--), LHRP, 2016
 
10. Mitch Garver (17) C, 2017
21. Rainis Silva (24), C, 2018
 
5. Lewin Diaz (9) 1B/DH, 2019
32. Kolton Kendrick (--), 1B/DH, 2020+
33. Chris Paul (--) IF/OF, 2018
38. Travis Blankenhorn (--), 3B/1B, 2020
39. Trey Cabbage (--), IF/OF, 2020+
 
11. Levi Michael (22), 2B, 2016
24. Luis Arraez IF (40), 2019
40. Emmanuel Morel (--) IF, 2020+
 
7. Wander Javier (--) SS, 2020+
8. Jermaine Palacios (36) SS/3B, 2020
9. Nick Gordon (12) SS, 2019
23. Engelb Vielma SS (20), 2017
 
14. Travis Harrison (14), OF/1B, 2017
15. Amaurys Minier (6) OF/1B, 2019
18. Daniel Palka (--) OF, 2017
19. Adam Walker (21), OF, 2016
22. Jean Carlos Arias (--), CF, 2020
31. LaMonte Wade (--), CF, 2018
37. Niko Goodrum (--), CF/IF, 2017
 
Clearly Catcher and LHRP are the weakest positions as far as quality prospects go. As far as LHRPs, some of the starters in this list, primarily Taylor Rogers and Lachlan Wells, could end up as relievers. As far as catchers go, John Hicks, who is ineligible for this list, will likely be the first one called up if need arises. Stuart Turner, who dropped from the list, is about a season or two away and Carlos Paulino, who did not make this list, can also help this season if needed. Definitely Catcher is a position in need and one the Twins should probably target at some point.
 
Here is the list broken down by ETA:
 
1. Jose Berrios RHSP (5), 2016
3. Nick Burdi (6) RHRP, 2016
6. JT Chargois (--) RHRP, 2016
11. Levi Michael (22), 2B, 2016
12. Mason Melotakis (--), LHRP, 2016
19. Adam Walker (21), OF, 2016
30. Taylor Rogers (--), LHR/SP, 2016
 
2. Tyler Jay (--) LHSP, 2017
10. Mitch Garver (17) C, 2017
13. Kohl Stewart RHSP (7), 2017
14. Travis Harrison (14), OF/1B, 2017
16. Jake Reed (16) RHRP, 2017
18. Daniel Palka (--) OF, 2017
23. Engelb Vielma SS (20), 2017
25. Ryan Eades RHSP (30), 2017
29. Brandon Peterson (27), RHRP, 2017
37. Niko Goodrum (--), CF/IF, 2017
 
4. Stephen Gonsalves (13) LHSP, 2018
20. Felix Jorge (29), RHSP, 2018
21. Rainis Silva (24), C, 2018
31. LaMonte Wade (--), CF, 2018
33. Chris Paul (--) IF/OF, 2018
35. Yorman Landa (--), RHRP, 2018
36. Kuo Hua Lo (--), RHRP, 2018
 
5. Lewin Diaz (9) 1B/DH, 2019
9. Nick Gordon (12) SS, 2019
17. Lewis Thorpe (11) LHSP, 2019
15. Amaurys Minier (6) OF/1B, 2019
24. Luis Arraez IF (40), 2019
34. Fernardo Romero (37), RHSP, 2019
 
7. Wander Javier (--) SS, 2020+
8. Jermaine Palacios (36) SS/3B, 2020
22. Jean Carlos Arias (--), CF, 2020
26. Lachlan Wells (--), LHSP, 2020
27. Huascar Ynoa (--), RHSP, 2020
28. Brusdar Graterol (--), RHSP, 2020+
32. Kolton Kendrick (--), 1B/DH, 2020+
38. Travis Blankenhorn (--), 3B/1B, 2020
39. Trey Cabbage (--), IF/OF, 2020+
40. Emmanuel Morel (--) IF, 2020+
 
Even though six out of the top 12 prospects from the 2014 list have already graduated, it is great to see that there is a good pipeline of top 15 talent MLB-ready (ETA 2016) and close to MLB-ready (ETA 2017) in a variety of positions. The Long Term (ETA 2018, 2019-2020+) is sure to change and some of those players might move up the ranks and might arrive faster than it is thought. It is also certain that additional players not on the list (or even in the organization) today, will be able to be top contributors from 2018-2020. Another impressive and even serendipitous situation is that the Twins' weakest point, the bullpen, likely has the strongest immediate and short term pipeline.
 
Looking forward to see these prospects play this Spring and throughout the season. It has been some work, but very enjoyable work for me to do these lists.
 
http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5152/7098789651_02fb66b359_z.jpg

The other day, I was watching Moneyball, one of my favorite films. My favorite scene is when Billy Beane is in the room with a bunch of scouts saying the team should sign a bunch of questionable players. His response, as I'm sure most of you know, to all the criticisms he receives is "He gets on base." This got me thinking, how important is it to get on base?
 
Using Fangraphs, I collected a bunch of data from last season, focusing on the team as a whole rather than individual stats. My goal was to see which aspects of hitting (OBP, OPS, wOBA, etc) had the largest impact on the number of runs the team scored. Some of the stuff I found seemed obvious, other stuff was quite surprising.
 
For each statistic I ran a linear regression between total runs(y) and that statistic(x). I have reported the slope and correlation coefficient for each one:
AVG: slope=4.76(r=0.81)
OBP: slope=4.96 (r=0.89)
SLG: slope=2.91(r=0.90)
OPS: slope=2.04(r=0.94)
wOBA: slope=5.00(r=0.94)
BB%: slope=4.18(r=0.48)
ISO: slope=2.87(r=0.60)
HR: slope=1.47(r=0.53)
SB: slope=-0.08(r=-0.03)

It comes as no surprise that wOBA has both the strongest correlation and the most runs per percentage point of all the statistics I looked at. If anything, all this means is that wOBA truely is a great way to measure offensive value. In addition, the fact that OBP has a slightly larger impact than AVG indicates that getting on base via BB, HBP, Error, FC, etc. does create more run-scoring opportunities. However, the correlation between BB% and total runs was quite weak. Now that I think about it, this may be because a team can walk less and hit more and still recover their OBP, so this is really no different than AVG having a lower r-value than OBP. I'm surprised that SLG and OPS have a smaller impact than AVG and OBP, but I think this just exposes the weakness of those stats compared to wOBA. The fact that ISO has such a weak correlation with total runs further emphasizes that hitting for extra bases does not tell you as much as simply getting on base. I figured ahead of time that using HR and SB would provide weak correlations since they are counting stats, but it was interesting to see there is no correlation whatsoever between stolen bases and total runs scored.
 
I guess I didn't really learn all that much from doing this, but I can say the simple act of getting on base is more important to scoring runs than the business of how one gets on base (OBP vs AVG or BB%), and that wOBA is an awesome and useful statistic. So I guess Billy Beane was right, if a player gets on base, he's worth having on your team.
 
I'm new to Twins Daily and this is my first blog post! I love numbers but I also love the other aspects of the game, so as I continue to publish I promise not everything will be quite this dry
 
Thanks for reading and feel free to share your own thoughts and analysis!