clone52

There is no chance Diaz even gets picked, let along stick on a roster for the entire season. Corner Infielders are rare picks in the Rule 5 draft and the few that do get picked have at least a full season of AA under their belt. Diaz getting picked would be unprecedented. As for the unprotected relievers, the front office must think they are all basically interchangeable. You're not going to lose more than 1 or 2 of them at most, so you still have some leftover. Stewart, I'm guessing the front office just doesn't see much projection from.

How about Ichiro to platoon with Kepler? I know he's left handed, but he hits lefties better than righties. Wouldn't need much playing time. Veteran presence. Pretty darn cheap. Maybe signing him would give the Twins a chance to lure Otani to Minnesota.

No, the argument/plan the last several years is sign cheap veterans and hope it works out. Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn't. 2017: Breslow, Belisle 2016: Abad, Kintzler 2015: Boyer, Stauffer I wouldn't say they young guys have been sinking, they've just been moved up the chain really slowly. Chargois and Burdi were supposed to be the first two. Chargois was shaky in his first chance, but I don't think you give up on him. Now both of them are injured. Curtiss and Moya were a little shaky in their first stints, but to early to give up on them. Jay, Bard, Eades, Melotakis, Reed are all knocking on the door for their first chance. To early to give up on any of these guys. Take a look at some of the top relievers this year David Robertson was 5.34 ERA his first year Andrew Miller was 6.10 ERA his first year Dellin Betances was 10.80 his first year as a reliever. Plenty of others failed miserably and others were studs from the get go.

I didn't really look to closely at inherited runners, but you can get around that by not putting him in that situation very often (which means you need better options. I never suggested Belisle lead the bullpen, but he would be a good, affordable piece to fill it out. Lets say the Twins go crazy and spend 15-20 million and sign Wade Davis and Jake McGee. You then have this bullpen? Davis McGee Hildenburger Rogers Busenitz You probably fill one spot with a long reliever (Duffy, Gee, etc). The last spot could go to Belisle. Either that or Moya, Curtiss or the AAA guys (Reed, Eades, Melotakis, Bard, Chargois, etc). The truth is, the Twins will probabily sign 2 lower priced relievers (like they always do), not 2 studs like that and if they go that route, I'd rather sign Belisle that probably most other guys you'd get for that price. Either that our go internal all the way. There is an argument to be made that we have a boatload of RP prospects in the upper m inors and now might be the time to let them sink or swim. We're likely to lose a couple of them in the Rule 5 draft as well. Hildenburger Rogers Busenitz Duffy Moya Curtis Reed/Eades/Melotakis/Bard/Chargois/Burdi/Jay

Maybe thats the right thing to do? Lets pretend 2016 didn't happen. They had 83 wins in 2015 with a young team and 85 wins in 2017 with the team growing up. Maybe you trust that Gonzo, Romero, Stewart, Jorge are going to pan out. You have an offense that is very solid and should get better. Maybe you have a hole at 3B is Sano has to become DH, or you have a hole at DH (relatively easy to fill). You have a hole in RF against lefty pitchers (not hard to fill either). Other than that, no changes necessary. Pitching is another matter. They gotta fill the bullpen out, but have lots of options. An Ace would be amazing, but to you want to give up whats needed to get it if you think those guys are close to being stars themselves? Thats why they pay they GM the big bucks.

It wouldn't even be cost prohibitive. He's just likely to want to go somewhere else. Maybe you can promise him a chance to play 2 ways, or sign Ichiro (Platoon RF with Kepler) and see if that helps you get Otani.

I agree with you, but rank them in the order of confidence you have in them. For me it'd be like this. Berrios Santana Gibson Mejia Umm.. still thinking... May (but should probably start out in the bullpen after Tommy John) Gonzo (but completely unproven) Romero (but completely unproven) Jorge (but completely unproven) Slegers (deserves a chance but probably a back end guy at best) Turley (emergency guy at best probably) Enns (very iffy) Hughes (he's done). In my opinion, I hope that between Gonzo, Romero and Jorge, one of them pans out as a 2 or 3 starter. If one becomes an Ace, great, but that is asking a lot. Expecting 2 or 3 of them to be mid rotation starters is probably asking a lot too. If we get one of them to be solid, that will be good. If you can trade Santana for lets say a guy like Gonzo and Enns, then maybe you do it, but I don't think you can get a guy like Gonzo for him. Honestly, I see him getting more of a return like you got for Garcia. I think we got a steal for Garcia, but the reason we got that isn't the quality of Garcia, but the fact that the Yankees probably weren't going to keep Enns and Littell on the 40 man roster anyway, the Yankee's were essentially trading away very little. I think you get even less than that for Mejia. I say you absolutely look for trades of those guys, but the probability of getting a good enough return is remote. I'd rather trade some of our minor league pitchers. Look at the Sonny Gray trade. If you were the Twins, would consider trading Nick Gordon, Stephen Gonsalves and Kirilloff for a guy like Gray? I probably would. You still have Polanco as a serviceable SS and if you lose Dozier after 2018, you can probably fill that gap with a temporary SS/2B until Javier or Lewis is ready. You'd still have some potential good pitchers near ready in Romero, Jorge and Stewart.

More on Belisle's bad games. The Twins had an 8-2 lead going into the 8th inning. Pressley and Breslow procedued to give up 7 straight runs. Belisle comes in (after pitching 2 innings the day before) with 2 outs and a runner on 2nd, down 9-8. Altuve doubles in a run to make it 10-8, then Correa walks. At this point, Beltran comes up, who hits righties far better than lefties, and homes. Probably should have brought in the lefty at that point, but Breslow was already used and Rogers had pitched the previous 2 days. Do you really try Rogers for a third day in a row in a game you already trail 10-8, or do you leave Belisle out there as the sacrificial lamb? In the other game, Belisle cam out to pitch the Top of teh 9th in a 7-6 games (Twins trailing). Got the first out, then walked a guy and gave up a double. finally an intentional walk loaded the bases. A single, double, double made it 13-6. Tyler Duffy, Taylor Rogers and Ryan Pressley had all be used already in the game. The other games, the Twins trailed by 3 late in the game. No matter which reliever you bring in, if they get into trouble, you probably just stick with them, not blowing more of your bullpen in a lost cause. If they had been close games. In a close game, you probably yank him sooner and he gives up 1 or 2 earned runs instead of 5 and 3. So I'd classify two of his blowups as a sacrificial lamb games. One was extenuating circumstances (due to a 15 inning marathon the day before and a completely blown bullpen). I'd really only classify one as a game the Twins had a good chance to win, which he blew, but even that one was more of a sacrificial lamb game after he gave up the first 1 or 2 runs (out of 6 total).

We'd all like the guy who is lights out and consistent, but not every team can fill their bullpen with that guy. Belisle is a pretty solid middle of the bullpen guy

My point was that Belisle is almost as consistant as some of the top relievers in the game. Its just when he had hiccups, they were more like full throated dry heaves. Don't know those numbers exactly, but in the 4 bad starts, he gave up 3, 4, 5 and 6 runs. In two of those games, the Twins were down 3 when he came in, so whether he gave up 1 or or 6, it didn't hurt the Twins chances much. In 2 of those games, the Twins were just down 1, so it was a bigger deal.

We've been hearing that Santana is due for a regression for 3 straight years. Sure, he'll fall of a cliff eventually, but other teams know that and aren't going to give up much value for him. He's more valuable to the Twins at his price than what they'd get back in a trade. The idea of trading Santana (unless they find a fool and fleece them) or Mejia is just silly. We're already lack depth at SP and unless you can trade a guy for a clear upgrade, it doesn't make sense to whittle away that depth.

I think they'd be stupid to to try to bring Belisle back in a setup. You take out 4 exceptionally bad appearances and his ERA was 1.38 and 8 K/9 innings. I know, I know, you can just eliminate the bad outings and say he was an amazing reliever. I get it, but here is why I'm okay with that. I'd rather have a guy who had a 1.38 ERA in 90% of his appearances and 1 stinker than a guy with a 2.5 ERA consistently. Compare Belisle (4.03 ERA) to Wade Davis (2.30 ERA). I mean, clearly Wade Davis must have had a better season. Belisle gave up 0 Runs in 50 of 62 appearances. Davis gave up 0 runs in 50 of 59 appearances. I'd say its not so clear that Davis was that much better. David Robertson (1.84 ERA) gave up 0 runs in 52 of 61 appearances

Offer Otani a spot in the rotation and RF when facing a lefty. I know he hits lefty and I don't know his splits, but he's got to be better than Kepler was last year. Alternatively, sign Ichiro to platoon with Kepler (he's far better against lefties than righties) and use Ichiro to lobby Otani to come to the twins.

The Garcia trade was nice, but Enns and Littell were probably not going to be retained on the Yankee's 40 man roster next year, so they likely were going to lose them both for nothing.

Honestly, I consider OF to be a surplus area for the Twins. You could easily go with an OF of Buxton, Kepler, Grossman and Granite and be just fine. That said, I don't think Rosario would bring back what people think he would bring back, so its kind of a moot point. I don't know what pitchers would be available for trade, but lets say the A's still had Sonny Gray. Would you trade Rosario, Gonsalves and Travis Blankenhorn for Sonny Gray? Or lets say Rosario, Gordon and Felix Jorge? I think that is how Rosario would have to be used in a trade to get a good pitcher. For the right pitcher, that would probably be worth it.

Would you trade Fernando Romero and Kohl Stewart for Eddie Rosiaro? Thats basically what you say you'd be tempted to do.

Fair point, I'd agree that having better MLB SP could have led to a sweep, but that does not mean trading Jaime Garcia was the wrong decision.

I hadn't seen that yet. That pretty much confirms the reason for Melville over Gonsalves. If they knew they'd be calling Curtis up, they'd need a 40 man spot and this was their way to do it.

Did they drop Melville of the 40 man roster? I figured they just sent him back to the minors.

Depends if you are talking MLB SP this year or long term. We increased our SP depth long term by getting Enns/Littell. If you are saying that MLB SP depth this year is the #1 priority, then yes, keeping Garcia was the right move. But you could also say that they should have traded Gonsalves and Romero for Sonny Gray, or Marco Estrada or someone like that.

One other possible reason for Melville over Gonsalves (all else being equal) is that if you have to remove Melville from the 40 man later, you probably aren't terribly concerned. If you put Gonsalves on the 40 man, he stays there and you might have to release someone else later before you want to.

What 2017 don't support the idea that he can contribute? His 1.065 WHIP (better than Gonsalves) His 8.6 K/9 (lower than Gonsalves, but still pretty darn good) I want to see Gonsalves as much as anybody and I would have loved to see him get the start, but starting Melville wasn't the kidn of boneheaded decision some people are making it out to be.

Why do you think Duffey gives you 4-innings, not being stretched out at all. Why do you assume Gonsalves would have given a better game than Melville? Melville has been just as good as Gonsalves this year (although not a long term prospect).? You really trust Gibson on short rest? REally? Really?

Okay, its a response like this that shows how shortsighted people are. Slegers (Not an option unless you want a guy to make his second major league appearance on short rest). Gonsalves (The only legitimate option on this list, but not a sure fire better bet than Melville. Long term, he's a better option, but Melville has been just as good as Gonsalves this year. There is no reason to assume Gonsalves would have given them a better chance in that game than Melville did. Plus, either one takes up a spot on the 40 man. Lets say they want to use that spot later. Probably feel okay risking melville on the 40 man, but once Gonsalves joins it, he's not going off it). Duffey: Maybe an option if you want to go with a bullpen game, but he's not stretched out and you also screw up one of your key bullpen pieces for about 5 games. Gibson: He could have pitched on short rest, but you have the SAME FREAKING ISSUE for Tuesdays game then. And names you did not mention Rosario has been in the bullpen since he was sent down. Jorge would have eitehr had to be extremely short rest, or extremely long rest, both of which could be a detriment to him considering there is no evidence that he would have been any better than Melville.

Thats my point. There is no way you can say what the effect of keeping Garcia would have been. I was responding to someone saying we would have swept Chicago if we kept Garcia.